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#Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ From the current market expectations, Circle's upcoming earnings report is likely to barely meet revenue expectations, but exceeding them won't be easy. Although the overall scale and on-chain activity of USDC have continued to grow, the decline in reserve yields caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has been eroding their profit margins. Coupled with a recent miss last quarter, the market remains cautious about its profitability performance. The key will be whether USDC's growth rate can offset the impact of falling interest rates. A simple trap set by the manipulator scared a bunch of retail investors.
Brothers, tonight's rebound—how many of you are shouting that the reversal is here, that the bull market is about to start again?
Look closely, $ETH only touched 2308 at the highest before immediately softening, not even breaking through the dense moving average resistance above.
Looking further down at the bottom volume, this rebound has no capital follow-through at all; it's all shorts taking profits and retail investors chasing longs creating a false illusion.
This is a classic case of "low-volume bull trap."
Why do many brothers panic as soon as they see a rise?
Because they are fully invested, heavily leveraged, or even close to forced liquidation prices.
But in trading, you focus on the bigger trend and risk-reward ratio.
Look at my short position at 2671, the profit has already been securely taken at 1438%.
The major downtrend structure hasn't changed at all; the highs have dropped step by step from 2579 to 2538, then to tonight's 2308.
The next plan remains clear: once this wave of emotion is vented, as long as the rebound can't push through the 2300 - 2310 resistance zone, it's an excellent shorting opportunity.
Looking further down, once it breaks below the 2236 consolidation low, it will most likely test the previous low at 2174 directly.
Don't be scared by the manipulator's little tricks, recognize the big trend, hold your bottom chips firmly, this meat is ours to eat.
$BTC
$ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🔥 TRENDING ON OKX TONIGHT — Fearful, But Dip-Buying!
Mood: Fear & Greed 26 = fear. Yet $BTC holds its key level + traders keep buying dips. That's not panic, that's positioning.
Trending:
$BTC/USDT $77,641.20 +0.16% — holding
$ETH/USDT $2,298.49 +1.09% — leading
$OKB/USDT $109.01 -2.38% — cooling
Educational: In fear, smart money watches flow, not feelings. Capital rotating toward OKX = liquidity + confidence.
Watch $BTC hold, $ETH follow-through. Risk: fear can flip fast, size small.Circle 这季的每股收益，我看多半能到 0.38 以上。让我这么想的，不是 Circle 自己说了什么，是 Coinbase 上周四发的三季报。 Circle 的钱，主要是 USDC 背后那几百亿美元储备买国债吃的利息。可这笔利息有一大半要分出去，分得最多的就是 Coinbase。二季度它拿走的，占 Circle 全部分销成本的将近八成。Coinbase 三季报材料的第 36 页，把这一块列得清清楚楚。 Coinbase 写的三季度 USDC 平均市值是 730 亿美元左右，二季度是 770 亿，少了 5% 左右。Coinbase 从 USDC 拿到的钱是 3.28 亿，只比二季度多了 800 万。这笔钱，基本就是 Circle 付给它的分成。按 Circle 8 月给的全年指引倒推，下半年分出去的比例要涨不少，利润率要掉一截。照 Coinbase 这个数，三季度掉得没那么多。 再加上它账上还有 1 亿多美元的币，都按市价记账。三季度 HYPE、比特币、以太坊涨了 40% 到 70%，可最大的一块 Canton Coin 跌了一成左右。粗算合起来，有 1,000 多万美元的收益。两Whether the rebound can continue now seems more driven by news; looking at the K-line alone is not enough (｡･ω･｡)
With the US midterm election results window approaching, the composition of Congress affects crypto regulation, fiscal spending, and risk appetite; tonight's JOLTS and Friday's nonfarm payrolls combined with December rate hike expectations may increase macro volatility.
BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $643 million, institutions are still reducing risk; BTC is relatively resilient, but funds have not continuously flowed back, which only indicates strong support but no confirmed reversal yet.
ETH spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $156 million, totaling about $1.61 billion over the past 30 days, showing the most significant mid-term capital pressure; contract sentiment is bearish, but if BTC stabilizes, ETH might trigger short covering (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
SOL spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $10.74 million, about $144 million over the past 30 days; the team advises validators to guard against a Linux kernel vulnerability, with no evidence of breach and not a Solana code issue, but short-term sentiment is disturbed.
From another perspective, BTC is relatively stable, ETH offers a recovery-driven short-covering opportunity, and SOL is the most aggressive with the lowest tolerance 😊
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 🚨 If Bitcoin drops to $74,700, I might really take action! 👀
Having observed BTC for so many years, I've gradually found that the 120-day moving average on the daily chart is often an important support area worth watching.
If $BTC falls back to around $74,700, I will definitely seriously consider going long. After all, there aren't many obvious support levels nearby right now, so this position deserves close attention.
Shorting BTC might seem like the trend, but I personally remain cautious. For retail investors, shorting can sometimes become a trap, and if the market suddenly rebounds, the risk can quickly escalate.
From here on, it's best to proceed carefully. Managing leverage well, practicing good risk management, and avoiding blindly chasing highs or selling lows are the keys to long-term survival.
If BTC really drops to $74,700, would you choose to buy the dip and go long, or continue waiting for confirmation? 👀
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BitcoinTrading #美国中期选举
#DailyOrbit When others panic, Strategy keeps accumulating! $BTC
Strategy purchased another 811 BTC between October 26 and November 1 at an average price of $80,800. Its total holdings have now reached 849,327 BTC, acquired at an average cost of around $75,500.
Despite market uncertainty, the company continues its long-term Bitcoin accumulation, backed by approximately $4.9B in cash reserves. 💰
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook $CL
Recent crude oil plunge is mainly due to the concentrated squeeze-out of geopolitical risk premium.
With the US and Iran simultaneously signaling easing through negotiations, market bets on a supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have quickly cooled, leading bulls to exit en masse; combined with limited OPEC+ production cut constraints, increased Middle East exports, and downward revisions in demand expectations, the weak fundamentals have been exposed, and programmatic selling has amplified the decline.
There is significant divergence in the outlook. Bears believe that after the geopolitical logic is disproven, oil prices will return to fundamentals with further downside potential; supporters emphasize low inventories, insufficient supply elasticity, and OPEC+ support, with Goldman Sachs even raising oil price forecasts.
Currently, a short-term phase of high-level wide-range oscillation and increased volatility is more likely: after the geopolitical premium is given back, a new fundamental anchor needs to be found, but conditions for a sustained deep decline are insufficient; if negotiations stall or conflicts reignite, a rapid rebound could be triggered. The probability of a smooth one-way decline is limited, so key focus remains on US-Iran negotiation progress and on-site Middle East frictions.
#伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ #加密行业协同守护资产安全 The heat remains, but the 24-hour volatility continues to compress?
DOGE is stuck at 0.0733, community narratives persist, but the 0.070 defense line shows no capital support signal.
ETH has dropped to 2240, the 2300 resistance has not been absorbed, and the linked volatility is weak.
The December rate hike expectation remains undecided, making this time window prone to locking volatility.
Volatility contraction will not last forever; the non-farm payroll release will trigger its expansion again.
Open your position list and check if your stop-loss can withstand the impact after volatility rises.
Focus on the 77000 level today.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE The altcoins are moving in tandem with Bitcoin, both weakening with synchronized fluctuations. After a short-term upward test, pressure caused a pullback. The resistance above is obvious, and there is a lack of sustained upward momentum after the rally. The market is tugging back and forth between bulls and bears; do not blindly chase longs. Wait for the rebound to reach the resistance zone before following the trend to look for a pullback.
Trading advice
Rebound pressure is expected in the 2295-2310 range; follow the trend to set up shorts, with targets initially at 2270-2250. If broken, continue to look down toward around 2230. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH Toncoin ($TON)
📱 Messaging platforms and blockchain technology could create new ways for people to access digital services. Toncoin is connected to an ecosystem with a strong focus on Telegram-related applications. The challenge is turning a large potential audience into active blockchain users. Could messaging apps become the easiest gateway into crypto?BTC is currently at 77379.9, with MA20 at 80260.1.
Pressure hasn't broken; it's too early to talk about a reversal.
Strategy bought 811 BTC for 65.5 million USD, then used 208 million USD to repurchase preferred shares.
Where the money comes from and where it goes is very clear.
The treasury strategy has already split.
Strive increased holdings by 124 BTC, backed by 15% annualized SATS preferred share financing.
BitMine acquired 8573 ETH, bringing holdings to 6.06 million.
Metaplanet repaid 50.64 million USD debt, raising the coin purchase budget to 212 million.
Some are borrowing to expand the balance sheet, others are reducing burdens first.
They are not collectively pushing the market up; each is making their own allocation.
ETH is now down -0.52%, BTC down -0.37%.
Ethereum is weaker, and this is no coincidence.
Institutions are accumulating, but the market may not follow the rise.
When BTC turns, ETH usually crashes first; when BTC rebounds, ETH mostly follows.
It currently has no independent mainline, only dependency. $BTC $ETH #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ The strength or weakness of the $BTC US dollar is the core anchor affecting BTC's medium- to long-term trend, and this US election will directly determine the future tone of US dollar monetary policy. If subsequent loose fiscal policies are implemented, it will likely suppress the US dollar index, benefiting BTC and other non-US scarce assets to rise; if it leans toward tightening regulation, it will temporarily suppress risk asset valuations.
Currently, the market is in an expectation game phase, with small fluctuations in the US dollar index driving BTC to oscillate back and forth, and the market's ups and downs completely follow macro sentiment. Compared to short-term fluctuations, more attention should be paid to the policy $ implementation pace after the election, which will determine BTC's overall trend direction in the fourth quarter. $ZEC $SOL CoinMarketCap's report says Bitcoin open interest contracts have dropped to a 12-month low of $284.1 billion
It sounds like the market has lightened up, but the remaining batch of longs are still paying an extremely expensive "toll" — the funding rate remains stuck at a 90-day high (about 0.93 basis points), even higher than the previous week
The total leverage has decreased, but the remaining position costs have become more expensive, and as soon as some fall, others immediately fill in
Spot $BTC ETFs have seen outflows of $859 million over nearly 6 trading days, with BlackRock's IBIT alone experiencing 10 consecutive days of outflows, totaling over $2.24 billion
However, whales are adding positions against the trend, with total holdings rising to 3.03 million coins, the fastest pace since February this year
The most critical level now is $76,000
This is the average cost line for short-term holders, whose unrealized gains are currently only about 2%. If these holders shift from slight profits to losses, it could easily trigger sell-offs
As long as the $76,000 barrier is not broken, the market will continue to grind within this narrow range; once broken, the next deep support zone is between $73,000 and $74,000
$BTC #BTC range consolidationSei ($SEI)
⚡ Trading-focused blockchain infrastructure is an interesting niche in the crypto market. Sei has been designed around performance and applications that need fast execution. Its long-term opportunity depends on active users and sustainable applications. Would you choose a specialized trading chain over a general-purpose blockchain?Staring at the K-line for half a day is not as useful as looking at today's news mentioning the "NU7 developer controversy".
This is the real reason behind ZEC's sharp drop.
Technical breakdowns can be charted, but a fundamental trust crisis is fatal.
The community is bickering over the developers' interests, and big investors seeing this kind of news react by retreating without regard to cost.
Look at the market: the price has plunged directly from the high of 1398 to 1195, with the moving averages above pressing down hard. Every very slight rebound is just supplying bullets to the bears.
Currently, 65% of the market is shorting, which shows that the smart money has long understood this game and is following the trend to push the price down.
The current 1195 is definitely not the bottom, just a resting point in the downtrend.
As long as it dares to weakly rebound, that will be our best opportunity to enter a high short position.
Face reality and don't fight the trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC The current BTC market has entered a typical policy-driven phase, with technical trends fully following the fluctuations of U.S. election public opinion and policy expectations. The crypto-friendliness of the campaign camps, attitudes toward digital currency regulation, and the direction of White House fiscal policy directly influence the institutional capital's position timing.
Historical cycle data shows that during the U.S. election window, global risk asset volatility tends to decline in phases, with capital preferring to lock in profits and reduce aggressive speculation. This is the core reason why BTC has struggled to break out of its range recently. In the short term, the market lacks clear negative catalysts to trigger a sell-off and also lacks strong catalysts for a breakout rally. Overall, it is mainly consolidating to digest positions and waiting for macro developments to materialize. $ETH $ZEC #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ As of Q2 2026, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase; on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion, soaring 151% year-over-year. The numbers look impressive. But total revenue and reserve income in Q2 were only $701 million, up just 7% year-over-year.
Transaction volume rose 151%, but revenue only increased by 7%. The issue lies in the revenue structure: about 95% of Circle's income comes from interest on USDC reserves invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, while transfer fees in Q2 were only $5.3 million — $14.8 trillion in transaction volume generated just $5.3 million in revenue. USDC has grown, but Circle still earns money from "U.S. Treasury bond coupons," not from the "stablecoin network effect."
The real profit bottleneck: distribution costs consume nearly 60% of revenue
In the first half of 2026, Circle generated about $1.4 billion in revenue, of which $819 million (nearly 59%) was directly paid to distribution partners and transaction costs. This means that for every $1 of revenue, only about 7 cents remain as net profit.A full review of my ICNT one-hour triple trade strategy: suitable for oscillation breakout + up-and-down retracement cycle trades
1. First, we can see the big trend is a box range oscillation. When I saw ® a large volume bullish candle breaking out of the box, I predicted this bullish candle wouldn't be a one-time explosion. After the breakout, there might be a chance for a pullback order block, so I prepared to place a long order in advance at 0.2243 (this position is the breakout order block/upper edge support of the box).
2. After placing the order, I noticed the price quickly surged, giving no chance for a pullback to place orders, so I immediately chased long at market price to ensure I didn't miss out.
BOS breakout, time to take profit!
3. After entering the long position: when the price hit a new high, I set a take profit for half the position to secure some gains—now I could confidently set a stop loss on the remaining half to ride the trend; just as I thought, it surged to a high then exhausted, showing a shooting star (which I've noticed several times while watching the market these days), a sign of stagnation, so I reversed to short and continued to profit!
4. Set the short target properly! It just hit the key support at 0.2243 again, took profit and exited perfectly; and this position was also where I had placed a long order in advance, so I entered long again.
Yay!
5. Finally, reviewing the trades, ICNT had three consecutive profitable waves: breakout long, high position short, support long again—three smooth transitions with good profits.
Dear friend! Follow me to take profits, have you learned it well?#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle (CRCL) Short, Medium, and Long-Term Outlook
✅Short term 0–1 year: Interest rate competition dominates, fundamentals await earnings verification
The short-term focus is on Federal Reserve interest rates, USDC circulation scale, and cost control. The company's revenue heavily depends on reserve interest; in a rate cut environment, growth in USDC circulation is needed to offset declining yields, and distribution cost control is key to profitability. USDC's compliance advantage can retain institutional clients but faces fierce competition from USDT. The Q3 earnings report is a crucial test.
✅Medium term 1–3 years: Success depends on the second growth curve
The next 1–3 years are a transition window. Circle cannot remain just an interest-earning stablecoin issuer; the focus is on whether businesses like CPN payments, on-chain infrastructure, and real asset tokenization can take off to increase non-interest income share. Successful new business will lead to valuation reshaping; slow progress will firmly cap valuation, while also needing to guard against competition from traditional financial giants entering the space.
✅Long term 3+ years: Competing for digital dollar infrastructure influence
The long-term space comes from the trends of digital assets, cross-border settlement, and asset tokenization. Circle's biggest moat is its first-mover advantage and compliance qualifications, aiming to become the global digital dollar underlying infrastructure. The biggest risks come from various countries' CBDCs, large banks' proprietary stablecoins, and diverse regulatory policies worldwide. Whether it can solidify ecosystem standards will determine its long-term value. Celestia ($TIA)
🧩 Blockchain modularity is changing how developers think about building networks. Celestia focuses on data availability, allowing other blockchain systems to build with more flexibility. The idea could support a wider range of specialized chains. Do you believe modular blockchains are the future of Web3?#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
Circle will release its earnings report before the market opens on November 4, with the core test being whether USDC's scale growth can translate into profits. Growth remains strong: USDC circulation is about $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with a market share of about 25%, driven by compliance and payment scenarios. However, the revenue side faces dual pressures: about 95% of income comes from reserve interest, with reserve yields having dropped from 4.16% to 3.5%. In Q1, circulation increased by 39% but reserve income only rose by 17%; distribution costs are high, with $405 million paid to partners in Q1 (about $330 million to Coinbase). In Q2, distribution costs accounted for 46% of revenue, leaving only about 7 cents net profit per $1 revenue in the first half of the year. Market expectations for Q3 revenue are $789 million to $797 million, with EPS of $0.38 to $0.40. Morgan Stanley is cautious, with a target price of $34 and a reduce rating, believing that slowing growth and rising distribution costs outweigh the benefits of forward yields; optimists also think a significant beat is unlikely, with the main theme still being "volume up, profit not up." Therefore, the key is not whether USDC's scale expands, but how much profit remains after incremental interest covers yield declines and revenue sharing; if scale growth slows, the vulnerability of the single-interest model becomes more prominent, making transformation progress more worth watching.U.S. stock perpetual contracts no longer need to be viewed only through offshore platforms.
The U.S. CFTC has approved the compliant listing of U.S. stock perpetual contracts in the U.S., marking the first time stock perpetuals enter the U.S. regulatory framework. For traders, compliance with margin, clearing, and investor protection is simultaneously accessible, which may increase the willingness of institutions and market makers to participate.
In the short term, the first-mover advantage of offshore platforms relying on listing stock perpetuals to attract traffic will be weakened, and similar contracts on platforms like Bitget may face diversion in trading volume and funding rates; in the medium to long term, the official acceptance of perpetuals as a leverage tool in the U.S. is a positive factor for the crypto derivatives narrative. Tokens without direct benefits should watch the scope of the first approved contracts, leverage limits, and launch timing.
If only the framework is approved but products are delayed, the hype will quickly fade. Are you more concerned about the list of underlying assets in the first batch of contracts, or whether compliant venues can build sufficient depth?
Source: BlockBeats📊 Traditional Finance/Compliance Testing: XRP, OKB, BCH — Three rhythms, one narrative.
$XRP: Strong at the company level, softer at the token level. The 3x ETF is postponed to November 30; the SEC custody letter on October 20 hinted that after the CLARITY Act is implemented, more XRP will be unlocked for RLUSD liquidity. OCC trust + FSOC are long-term positives. If $1.25 doesn't hold, the next level to watch is $1.10.
$OKB: Purely defensive. No catalysts, no supply shocks, and can even absorb overflow funds. Suitable to hold as a buffer.
$BCH: Slow lane. CME is already listed, Grayscale S-3 progress is slow — steady around $284 for 284 days.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 $BTC November 4 BTC daily analysis!
From the high of 87395, the price fell, breaking below the Bollinger middle band at 80414, approaching the key support at the lower band 76341.
MACD is in a bearish death cross state, RSI at 36.81 is not yet deeply oversold, still with downside risk.
Key support is at 76341; if it holds, a rebound is expected; primary resistance is at 80414, only by stabilizing above this level can the correction pattern be reversed.
Next is the US midterm elections,
The early voting on November 4 may trigger intense volatility; bearish news could break support, bullish news could drive a rebound.
Positioning should closely monitor the gain or loss of the 76341 support, and prepare profit-taking and stop-loss plans in advance. Pyth Network ($PYTH)
📈 Accurate market data is essential for decentralized applications. Pyth Network focuses on providing price information to blockchain platforms and financial applications. Reliable data can help smart contracts make better decisions, but oracle security remains crucial. Do you think decentralized applications can succeed without trustworthy real-time data?Pendle ($PENDLE)
⏳ DeFi is evolving beyond simple token swaps. Pendle focuses on yield trading, allowing users to separate and trade future yield from underlying assets. This creates new strategies for managing risk and potential returns. As DeFi becomes more sophisticated, tools like this could attract experienced users. Would you use a platform that lets you trade future yield?The current macroeconomic picture is sending mixed signals. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5, above expectations, suggesting stronger economic activity. However, its price index remained elevated at 75.2, while September core PCE inflation rose to 3.1%, indicating that inflationary pressure remains a concern. As a result, market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December have reportedly climbed to 70%. ▪ Key Nonfarm Payrolls Expectations • Expected job growth$ETH's market just pushed up steadily, retracing back near 2300. The contract open interest barely moved within a few hours, which made me a bit uneasy. Looking at the whole day, the total open interest is still declining. The funding rate has remained at a normal level. The on-exchange bullish sentiment hasn't risen along with the price.
This rebound pushed the price higher, but the open interest data didn't keep up. The funding rate is very stable, indicating that the active buying volume is not strong. This rise looks more like a passive rebound caused by short covering. Without new capital increasing volume, it's hard to sustain the uptrend relying solely on short covering.
Switching to the daily chart, the current price has reached around 2315. This is a daily swing low with dense resistance above. Several daily EMA lines are still intertwined, making the trend unclear. The 4-hour EMA lines are also trending downward, with multiple layers of resistance overhead.
In the short term, I lean bearish. The current price is right at daily resistance with heavy selling pressure above. The market also lacks large volume orders to support the rise, so it will likely first pull back to test support.
$BTC $SOL #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 🔥 Midterm elections are here, can BTC surge to 85,000? The real opportunity lies in policy expectation gaps!
🟡 Election highlights: Control of the House and Senate will impact tax, regulation, fiscal, and crypto policies over the next two years. Pre-election Reuters surveys and analyses lean toward Democrats vying for the House, while the Senate remains highly uncertain; a Republican sweep is not guaranteed.
🔵 US stocks: If policies continue and regulatory expectations improve, some tech stocks and risk assets may get a boost; if a divided government emerges, the market may reassess fiscal and regulatory risks.
🟢 BTC: 85,000 USD can be a target under optimistic scenarios but is not a guaranteed post-election rally. It also depends on the dollar, US Treasury yields, ETF funds, and spot buying support.
🔴 My judgment: The election is a catalyst, not the trend itself. The real trade-worthy move is the capital reaction after results are finalized, not betting early on a party's victory.
⚠️ Positive news may be priced in early, and the result announcement could see a spike followed by a pullback. Avoid heavy bets on news; wait for the market to show direction before acting.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Ethereum's rebound to $2,317 failed to reach the expected $2,350 resistance, and the price has now pulled back to around $2,243. The recovery is losing momentum, while the 4-hour chart continues to show lower highs. ▪ ETH Technical Outlook The short-term structure remains bearish. Buyers have not shown enough strength to absorb selling pressure from trapped positions above. ▪ Market Signals • BTC has fallen below $77,000. • Long liquidations have exceeded $100 million. • Binance ETH perpetual acHere are 8 revised versions for you:
*Version 1 - Original Flavor Optimization*
> They say history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.
> When an exchange faces a major incident, is it often the bear market bottom?
> Yahoo Finance compared with FTX: on November 8, 2022, withdrawals were suspended,
> about one year after the 2021 peak, and the crypto market bottomed two weeks later.
> In the following 6 months, total market cap rose 18%, $BTC rose 40%.
> This time Binance was hacked, also about one year after the peak,
> and this round's deepest retracement was only 52%, much shallower than 73% in 2022.
> Still hoping the market will improve!
*Version 2 - Minimalist*
> They say history doesn't repeat but often rhymes; major exchange incidents often mark bear bottoms. Yahoo compared FTX: withdrawals suspended on 11/8/22, about one year after 2021 peak, bottomed two weeks later; next 6 months total market cap +18%, BTC +40%. This time Binance hack also about one year post-peak, deepest retracement 52%, shallower than 73% in 2022. Hope the market gets better.
*Version 3 - Trader Style*
> History doesn’t repeat but rhymes; major exchange incidents often mark bear bottoms. Yahoo compared FTX: withdrawals suspended 22.11.8, about one year after 2021 peak, bottomed two weeks later; 6 months later total market cap +18%, BTC +40%. This Binance hack also about one year post-peak; deepest retracement 52%, shallower than 73% in 2022. Looking forward to market recovery.
*Version 4 - Professional*
> They say history doesn’t repeat, but it always rhymes, exchange$ETH whales are accumulating aggressively around $2,279, buying large amounts of spot $ETH and moving them into cold wallets. Meanwhile, shorts remain heavily positioned, paying funding costs to hold their bets. Spot demand is rising while derivatives traders stay bearish. As long as $2,200 holds, a short squeeze could fuel a sharp upside move. $ETH
#USMidtermsPolicyOutlook Beginner's Diary｜Saylor: Price drop? Then I'll buy some more 🛒😂
Everyone's complaining about the weekly K-line dropping continuously, but Strategy quietly bought another 811 $BTC:
• Spent about 65.5 million USD, with an average price of about 80,846
• Total holdings now at 849,327 coins, with an overall average price of about 75,451
• The money came from selling MSTR stock (source: The Block)
I did the math: this batch was bought at a higher price than their overall average, current price is around 77.6k, so this new batch is temporarily "standing guard" 🧍
But what I learned is not "follow the whale to buy," but: they have their own funding sources and plans, and they execute according to their rhythm even when prices drop; I panic whenever prices fall because I have no plan 😵
Tonight is the US midterm election, and the implied volatility of options has already risen from about 43.5% to about 51% (CoinDesk), so volatility might be high, manage your positions first~
Are you more like Saylor or more like me: want to close the app when prices drop?
Learning check-in, not investment advice
#USMidtermElectionsComingUp, which results are worth watching? #Bitcoin#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Price withstands negative factors, but funds continue to flee?
BTC faces multiple negative factors, with a drop controlled within 3%, stabilizing around 78000, supported by short covering for the rebound.
ETH holds above the 2300 mark, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of $138 million, and spot funds continuously withdrawing.
2350 to 2370 is a resistance range where previous rebounds have repeatedly failed; until this is broken, reversal signals are not confirmed.
In a high volatility environment, the margin for error on 100x contracts will be compressed.
Open your position list and check your stop-loss levels for 100x leverage.
Clues have been collected; now waiting for the non-farm payroll and election results to verify.
$BTC $ETH $SOL ⚡ Funding Rate Crowd Check
$BTC: Funding Rate +1.00 bps | 24H +0.22%
$MMT: Funding Rate +0.50 bps | 24H +0.90%
$ALLO: Funding Rate +0.50 bps | 24H +1.66%
$BTC has the most extreme funding rate in this group, indicating that longs are paying the highest cost for leverage.
$MMT $ALLO $BTC
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ Not financial advice — please manage risk and do your own research. AMD发出去过两份认股权证。一份给OpenAI，2025年10月签的，一份给Meta，今年2月签的，各最多1.6亿股，行权价1美分。两份加起来3.2亿股，差不多是AMD现在16.6亿股的五分之一。归属看的是对方买了多少AMD的GPU，外加股价目标。6月底的10-Q写着，一股都还没归属，对报表没有影响，以后入账先按负债分类。 这段在10-Q里，不在新闻稿里。上季的10-Q比新闻稿晚了一个半小时左右才出，这次大约是北京时间4日早上6点40分前后。按会计准则，给客户的股权一般要冲减收入，而且不一定等真归属，公司一判断很可能归属、对应的GPU又确认了收入，就可能开始冲。10-Q没写记在哪一行，也没说non-GAAP会不会加回去。第一批跟第一个1GW的部署挂钩，Lisa Su 8月是这么讲Helios整柜的节奏的。 The Helios ramp is just starting at the end of Q3, and it'll be much more substantial in Q4. 9月26日季末之前，这一批大概还轮不到。可一旦开始算，光多出来的股数就可能差几分钱，冲收入那块要看#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 留#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $BTC $ETH BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧——价格在7.7万美元附近横着走，但ETF资金、美国买盘和矿工数据却在往不同方向拉。 【价格：跌了一个月，但没崩】 BTC在10月累计下跌约7.3%，近期一直在7.7万到8万美元之间震荡。截至发稿，OKX现货BTC约77,640美元，24小时区间76,386到77,885美元，波动明显收窄。恐惧与贪婪指数为26，处在“恐惧”区间。 【资金面：机构在撤】 美国现货BTC ETF在10月30日净流出6.43亿美元，是6月以来最大的单日流出；11月2日又净流出3.99亿美元，其中贝莱德IBIT一家就流出4.05亿美元。两个交易日合计流出超过10亿美元，比前一周四天的净流入（约4.4亿美元）还多。 【美国买盘：弱，但在修复】 Coinbase比特币溢价指数已连续多日为负，一度跌到2022年11月以来的低位，说明美国投资者买得比海外少。不过最近几天负值在收窄：从10月29日的-0.27%回升到11月2日的-0.14%左右。 【矿工：收入新高，单位收益下滑】 10月矿工收入达到12.15亿美Palantir's revenue surged but the stock price fell, indicating that the good news has already been priced in. KORU also needs to guard against "good news being fully priced in." I judge that it is currently in the pullback confirmation phase within an uptrend, so I am not chasing highs.
After a 2.4% drop in 24 hours, the price is oscillating around 11.2. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are still upward, with 18.84% room to the 4-hour high. The trading volume is 9.299 million, the top 10 order book buy-sell ratio is 1.07, slightly favoring buyers; the funding rate is 0.0183%, leaning bullish, with open interest at 1.038 million, and sentiment is not overheated.
Strategically, lightly test long positions near 10.84 on the pullback, stop loss at 10.52, target 11.63; if volume breaks below 10.52, exit and wait. Keep position size within 20%, do not heavily invest just because the trend is upward.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$KORU#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌
$KORU There is an interesting historical pattern between US midterm elections and Bitcoin's major market bottoms. Looking back at the previous three cycles: 📍 2014: BTC bottomed around 71 days after the election at approximately $170. 📍 2018: BTC bottomed around 39 days later near $3,200. 📍 2022: BTC bottomed around 13 days later near $15,500. The following bull-market peaks delivered impressive returns: 🚀 $170 → $20,000: 100x+ 🚀 $3,200 → $64,000: 20x 🚀 $15,500 → $126,000: 8x+ One detail stands 76.2K Defense Battle: Final Shakeout Before the Election, or Prelude to a Breakdown?
Market Confirmation: BTC perpetual at 76960, 24h volume 4.789 billion. 1-hour chart shows continuous bearish pressure from 81944, approaching previous low at 76260, current price support at 76950, resistance above at 79520.
Indicators Oversold but No Bottom Yet: MACD -263.4 with bearish divergence below zero line, bears dominate; KDJ K19.2, J11.7 extremely oversold, technical rebound possible; MFI 18.7 shows weak capital flow, volume shrinking with a slow decline, active buying not returned. MA5/10/20 overhead resistance, 1-hour descending channel intact.
Three Signals for Stabilization: Price: hourly chart holds 76260, if broken look to 75900 (STH cost) → 73300 (200-day MA); Rebound: only effective if volume recovers 78200-78500 (MA20 + resistance); Macro: no second dip after 11.3 midterm election vote count, indicating a local bottom.
Trading Tone: Currently, oversold combined with election uncertainty causes panic bottoming, not suitable to chase shorts or bottom-fish. Only very light probing below 76200, break means waiting for 75K panic pit; above 78.5K then consider reversal towards 80K. Control positions before election, wait for the starting gun.
(Not investment advice · for reference only) #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Have the US and Iran made concessions on the nuclear issue and frozen assets? Beware of a possible reversal.
The core disagreement between the two sides is Iran's enriched uranium.
Trump would never allow Iran to dilute this enriched uranium domestically.
On the surface, Trump wants a better deal than Obama’s original one, where Iran handed over the enriched uranium to a third party, namely Russia. If Iran is allowed to dilute it domestically, where would Trump save face? Even if it is handed over to a third country again, Trump would still lose face.
In essence, Iran has relatively advanced centrifuges; if it dilutes the enriched uranium domestically, it can re-enrich it anytime using the centrifuges. In this case, Iran does not have nuclear weapons but effectively has quasi-nuclear weapons.
Therefore, Trump will not concede on this issue. And Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz, would not be willing to hand over the enriched uranium. Remember, Iran did not control the strait in 2005.
On the other hand, in 2005 Iran handed over enriched uranium, and Russia, in exchange, gave Iran a large amount of uranium powder. Now with Iran’s advanced centrifuges, giving uranium powder to Iran may no longer be appropriate.
It might be related to the midterm elections; both sides are creating a peaceful atmosphere, but beware of a reversal.Circle二季度做了一笔代币预售。8.075亿枚ARC，每枚0.30美元，一共2.42亿美元，钱大部分当季就到了账，可一分都没算进收入，全部挂在负债里当递延收入。 CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen 8月在电话会上说，这笔收入要等产品里程碑达成才确认，今年大约能达成75%，全年指引里放了1.8亿。他还说，确认以后会“flow directly to the bottom line”，没有对应的成本。 代币本身还拿不到。CEO Jeremy Allaire 9月16日说，ARC现在还没放出来，计划等Arc在2027年转成权益证明时才放。预售合同里还有返还条款，代币没交付、到2028年5月8日还没转成，买家可以要求退钱。钱已经收了，代币计划2027年才放，收入今年就要认四分之三，这是这家公司这一季最大的一笔账。 华尔街的一致预期是每股0.37到0.38，二季度才0.18，翻一倍靠的就是这笔预售。盘子的线是0.37，要印出0.38。不算预售，三季度每股粗算在0.15左右。要到0.38，预售得确认6,600万左右，是全年1.8亿的三分之一多。每多认1,000万，每股多3分半左右。 关键是On November 2, on-chain trackers identified 15 wallets reportedly linked to Paradigm that unstaked approximately 2.55 million HYPE tokens over the past two days. That's around $224 million, representing roughly 17.85% of their remaining staked holdings. The amount is significant, but there's one important distinction: unstaking doesn't automatically mean selling. A few weeks ago, Paradigm-related wallets made a similar move, only to consolidate and stake their tokens again. Whether the same patt#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $BTC current price 80600, is it a buy? CRCL pre-market dropped to around 76 dollars.
Two consecutive days of US inflation data have clearly been unfavorable for risk assets.
CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, PPI month-on-month even reached 1.3%.
But now I am starting to consider looking for entry opportunities.
If BTC can firmly stand above 81800 again, it can simulate a rise to 83200; if it falls below 80900, this judgment is canceled.
If $ETH ETH recovers 2420, then watch 2490–2550; if it falls below 2350, reassess.
I don't think all risks have disappeared; the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month may still bring volatility.
But investing is essentially a study of expectations and odds.
What really deserves thought is: how much of the decline has the market already paid for these bad news? 🔥 The BTC midterm election curse draws attention again! After three rounds of elections, all saw declines. Will the fourth round repeat this?
🔵 Historical data: After the past three U.S. midterm elections, BTC further dipped before forming a temporary bottom.
📉 2014: Bottomed 71 days later, with a drop of about 46% from the election day close to the low.
📉 2018: Bottomed 39 days later, with a drop of about 50%.
📉 2022: Bottomed 13 days later, with a drop of about 15%.
The bottoming intervals shortened from 71 to 39 to 13 days, but with only three samples, this does not prove a definite pattern.
🟡 This year's election: Before voting, prediction markets gave the Democrats about a 95% chance to win the House and about a 76% chance to win the Senate. This is market expectation, not the final election result, nor does it mean the result is certain.
🔴 My judgment: What truly deserves caution is not the election itself, but whether after the election results are finalized, the market experiences capital outflows, leverage liquidations, and key support breaks. The 2022 decline was also impacted by the FTX incident and cannot be simply attributed to the election.
⚠️ In the coming weeks, focus on BTC capital flows, trading volume, and low point structures. History can be referenced, but do not treat 71, 39, and 13 days as a countdown. Control leverage and wait for market confirmation of direction.
Do you think this time will continue the historical rhythm or break the midterm election decline pattern?
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC 1. Current status: Pushed to 2300 then smashed down, short-term overbought is correcting, which is a normal shakeout, big funds (OI) haven't exited yet.
2. Bull scenario (going long): As long as it holds around 2288 - 2290 (closing with a lower shadow or placing buy orders), it's a chance to get in, waiting for a second push to 2300.
3. Bear scenario (going short/exiting): If a large bearish candle breaks through 2280 directly, it indicates the previous move was a fake breakout to lure longs, so long positions should exit quickly, and you can follow the trend to short.#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Data center revenue is very likely to continue high growth, but the Q3 increment is mainly driven by server CPUs, with Helios contributing limited direct revenue for the quarter.
Consensus expects data center revenue of $8.19 billion, up 88% year-over-year, a slowdown from Q2's 107% but still at a high level. Wedbush clearly points out that compute demand related to proxy AI continues to exceed supply, and server CPUs are the most likely source to exceed expectations and drive gross margin improvement. The outlook for the server business in the second half of the year has been raised to over 80% year-over-year growth.
Helios's schedule is initial shipments at the end of Q3, with large-scale volume ramp-up in Q4. Management confirms that customer pull-in progress is "ahead of initial forecasts," with anchor customers including OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft Azure, and Anthropic's 2GW MI450 deployment, whose first 1GW will not start until the first half of 2027. Cloud providers' commitments are real, but the timing of conversion into AMD revenue is in Q4 and beyond, not this quarter.
The real risk is not in data centers but in PCs and gaming. Intel has already issued a weak guidance due to declining PC demand, AMD's client business is expected to be flat quarter-over-quarter, and gaming revenue may decline 49% year-over-year, enough to partially offset the strength in data centers.
Q3 numbers exceeding expectations is the baseline scenario, but whether the 2027 data center guidance can be further raised is the core of post-earnings pricing.History Will Not Simply Repeat: BTC's Midterm Election Narrative Anchored on Liquidity, Not Votes
BTC is currently trading around $76,700, about $3,300 short of the $80,000 mark; just a few trading days ago, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a single-day net outflow of $643 million, the largest since late June. The convergence of election day and institutional capital "bleeding" in the same window forms the core tension in current pricing.
BTC bottoms after the last three midterm elections indeed occurred between two to two and a half years after halving, highly overlapping with bear market cycles. This means the so-called "election effect" itself cannot be causally inferred from these three samples. Bitwise's research director bluntly stated: so far, no statistically significant impact of midterm election probabilities on mainstream crypto asset performance has been found; by contrast, tightening financial conditions, inflation, and AI trading risks are more important variables.
The real transmission chain is not about who wins, but "Congress control → fiscal deficit path → interest rate expectations → US dollar." Glassnode data shows BTC's inverse correlation with the dollar is at its most negative level on record, and the dollar's strength is historically suppressing BTC. Bloomberg surveys confirm this: even under the "most crypto-friendly regulatory" blue wave scenario, most respondents do not believe BTC can break $100,000; and in the scenario of a Democratic sweep of both chambers, the year-end price median forecast is only $76,450.