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Preparing to eat dinner in the evening, I checked the futures capital flow and found a warning signal: BTC and ETH prices are both rising, but short-term funds are starting to withdraw! DOGE is even more dominated by long-term outflows. How much strength does this rebound really have?
First, look at $BTC: $80,356, up 2.42%
After the US midterm elections, the dollar weakened, US stocks rebounded, boosting risk appetite. But futures capital data shows BTC net inflow of about $130 million in the past 24 hours, yet an outflow of $19.26 million in the last 4 hours, and a cumulative outflow of $9.16 billion in the past 30 days. Short-term support is at 80,000, with resistance at 82,000 above.
Next, look at $ETH: $2,414, up 3.97%
ETH's gains lead BTC, but capital flow shows divergence. Net inflow of about $704 million in the past 24 hours, outflow of $61.85 million in the last 4 hours, and outflow of $91.59 million in the last 6 hours. This indicates short-term enthusiasm for chasing gains is still divided. Hold 2,400 and then look to 2,500.
Finally, look at $DOGE: $0.07706, up 2.49%
DOGE futures capital flow is even more worrisome! The chart shows net outflows for most of the year, and the price rebound lacks sustained capital support. Short-term support at 0.075, break through 0.08 to look for continuation.
A few final words
24-hour inflows do not mean sustained short-term bullishness; capital divergence is the key! For this wave, I prefer to wait for confirmation and am not in a hurry to chase.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Money market funds, those things with such low returns that no one pays them any attention, are actually the first type of fund to be tokenized on the blockchain.
I always thought the first to be tokenized would be the high-growth, story-rich varieties. But it turns out that a European asset manager turned the least sexy cash fund into a token, still keeping half to sell to old clients.
Frankly, it’s a way to avoid offending either side: old clients don’t accept tokens, new clients find the process cumbersome, so they just opened both paths.
Recording shares on $ETH and having more transparent records—these terms sound great. But ordinary people only care about two things—whether there’s one less fee, or if the payment arrives a day faster? No one talks about that.
So even now, I still don’t understand who this is actually convenient for. Binance has just survived a hacker attack with losses as high as $6.3 billion and is now showing signs of recovery. Its tracked assets have increased by about $5 billion, reaching $133.12 billion. $BNB
The cash flow in the past 24 hours was positive $774 million, but the cash flow over the past 7 days is still negative $10.88 billion. Withdrawal pressure remains.
One day’s inflow is not enough to offset a week’s sell-off. Do you think Binance has regained trust? 🔥 #USJobsReportInFocus — FRIDAY DECIDES THE FED 👀
ADP October: +86K vs +69K expected. Private hiring beat.
BLS Friday 15:30 SA: +65K expected, unemployment 4.2%. September was just +29K.
JOLTS: 1.06 jobs per unemployed — still tight.
What it means for crypto:
Hot jobs = Fed hawkish = risk pressure.
Weak jobs = cut hopes = risk relief.
Don't trade the headline. Wait for confirmation, manage risk.
Your call: Hot or weak on Friday? 👇
#USJobsReportInFocus #JobsReport #Fed #Crypto #Bitcoin #OKXTomorrow night at 21:30, the US October nonfarm payroll report will be released. Let's talk about my views.
The market expects an increase of 65,000 jobs, up from 29,000 previously, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. Last night, ADP added 86,000 jobs, better than expected, indicating that the US job market has not yet shown a clear slowdown.
But the background for this nonfarm report is somewhat different:
The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in October, with two officials even voting to continue raising rates. The market's expectation for a rate hike in December is already quite high.
If tomorrow night's employment and wage data continue to be strong, it could further reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, putting pressure on $BTC, gold, and US stocks.
Personally, I lean towards a moderate recovery in employment data, but it may not be enough to change the policy expectations already formed by the market.
So the most worth watching tomorrow night is whether risk assets can hold up if the data exceeds expectations.
After all, the rate hike expectation is already in place. What the market really fears may be stronger-than-expected employment and inflation pressures 🫡
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ A European asset management company has tokenized the shares of a money market fund on-chain without cutting off the old channels.
Amundi, in collaboration with CACEIS, launched the first tokenized share for its AMUNDI FUNDS CASH EUR money market fund, using a hybrid distribution model: investors can either go through traditional channels or buy the tokenized shares J28 EUR DLT (C). The underlying ledger is the public Ethereum.
Why is the money market fund the first to go on-chain? Because it is most like cash: short term, low net asset value volatility, naturally suitable for collateral and settlement. Institutions are not looking to speculate on it, but to move idle cash onto a track that can settle 7×24 hours and serve as collateral.
Note the four words "hybrid distribution." It is both a convenience and a compromise—the custody, registration, subscription, and redemption still go through CACEIS's old channels; the token only adds an additional entry point, not a replacement. The official emphasized benefits are transparency and traceability, not returns or speed.
The real signal is that "public Ethereum" is written into the plan: using a regulated public chain for share registration means acknowledging this path is viable. $ETH thus gains an additional use unrelated to price, and $USDC and $ONDO will also be mentioned along the way.
What is worth considering: if after a year only this money market fund is on-chain, the resistance lies in custody and regulation; if stock funds are also brought on-chain, it will truly shift from an experiment to a channel. For now, it is just the first one. Binance was hacked, and 48 hours later, hackers continue to attack multiple targets in the cryptocurrency market!
According to CryptoCeek, days after the Binance incident, attacks continue targeting Mercado Bitcoin, EU organizations, BTCPay merchants, and 12 DeFi platforms. $BNB
Preliminary estimated losses exceed $146 million.
=> Crypto assets are not necessarily safe just because they are stored on the blockchain.
Five principles to protect your assets:
Only keep trading funds on exchanges; transfer long-term assets to wallets you control.
Do not save your mnemonic phrase as images, cloud notes, or on websites.
Prioritize using apps or hardware security keys for two-factor authentication.
Revoke access permissions (token approvals) on DeFi platforms that you no longer use.
Be vigilant about customer service messages, withdrawal alerts, and invitations to transfer assets to secure wallets.
Self-managing your assets lets you control your private keys but also means you bear sole responsibility for their security.
Do you think storing cryptocurrency on exchanges is safer, or is self-managing with a cold wallet more secure? BTC sits at $BTC 80,444.90 (-0.03%), holding strong after bouncing from its low of $BTC 75,690.10. Crypto always moves in waves: past crashes like 2018 and 2022 saw brutal dips before massive bull runs. History shows prices cooling off before smashing new highs like Bitcoin's peak near $BTC 84,876.00.
My ultimate all-time prediction is BTC hitting $1,000,000 per coin long term.
Will Bitcoin smash past its old record during the next big cycle? Trump's media coverage continues to be disappointing.
$BTC After more than three months, visiting Crypto.com again
According to data recorded by Arkham 1 hour ago, this entity's wallet has cumulatively deposited 4,259.
$BTC Worth $343 million USD Please visit http://Crypto.com
Surprisingly, this deposit amount is twice the previous two deposits combined, and it is also all of their remaining assets. They currently hold only 1.3 million.$BTC
Arkham reported that James Wynn holds a 40x BTC short position. I checked the quantity, 0.24 BTC.
At the current price of 80453, the nominal value is just over nineteen thousand dollars, with margin under five hundred dollars at 40x leverage. This even made it to the broadcast.
Last year, when he had tens of millions in positions, a single liquidation could drag the market sentiment down for half a day. Now I just scroll past this without stopping. The reputation remains, but the position is gone.
What really matters is the holdings. Two hours ago I recorded 33,597 BTC, now 33,582, down by fifteen BTC. The price moved from 80541 to 80453, just a few dozen dollars back and forth. No money came in or out.
The funding rate is still pinned at the 0.01% benchmark, no premium at all. 81199 was left at 11 PM last night, this morning at 9 AM a surge of 340,000 contracts hit 80886 with no follow-up, at 3 PM 260,000 contracts were pushed back to 80755.
The order book is somewhat interesting: within ±1%, buy orders total 280 million, sell orders 90 million, a 3:1 ratio. The buy side is thick but the price isn't pushed up, indicating orders are placed but not filled.
A 0.24 BTC short with five hundred dollars margin. Even whale reports have shrunk these days.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ 🔷 CryptoX-ray #31: $AKE - cap $66M, FDV $290M
Volume ~$26.6M, about 40% of the cap. Circulating 22.8% out of 100 billion.
Red flag: November 21 unlock ~2.108 billion AKE (~9% of circulation). Burn and payments to stakers announced but not confirmed.
Verdict: there is volume, no demand for the platform seen. Waiting for verifiable payments. Ready for −30%.
Will the unlock crush the price? 👇Some existing and potential investors discussing Anthropic's valuation have lowered it from about $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion. This is an investor valuation discussion and should not be directly written as the confirmed IPO offering price.
The drop of about 25% seems large, but it only indicates a change in the price acceptance range between both parties and cannot alone prove that it is cheap now.
What I care more about is the company's disclosed future funding arrangements: approximately $895.4 billion committed to computing power and infrastructure expenditures, of which about $69.8 billion is expected to occur within the twelve months ending September 2027.
These are cross-period commitments and cannot all be counted as current quarter expenses; however, the upcoming payment demands will affect how much financing the company needs and how fast future revenues must grow.
Demand and revenue have already shown strong momentum, but valuation still needs to consider capital costs, spending pace, and profitability. Willingness to pay a high price for growth is understandable; extending growth indefinitely easily leads to a valuation that only holds in the most optimistic scenario.
I am actually not opposed to the cooling down of valuation discussions. Investors starting to seriously talk about price and terms is more useful than just arguing over who can become the biggest AI company. The company can be excellent, but shareholder returns still depend on how much was paid and how much more needs to be invested later.
#Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 Gold rose 0.43%, the US dollar fell 0.28%, but BTC fell against the trend by 0.66%. External conditions are clearly favorable, so why doesn't BTC follow? 1. News. COMEX gold closed at $3,957.4, up 0.43% for the day; spot gold around $3,946.5; the US dollar index at 101.46, down 0.28% intraday; BTC at $77,187.6, down 0.66% in 24 hours and down 4.18% over the past week, with a 20-day low of $76,265.2. The three show obvious divergence. 2. Capital impact. BTC ETF latest single-day net outflow was $663.6 million, 5-day net outflow $226.5 million, 10-day net outflow $351.2 million. Gold rising and the dollar weakening should benefit risk assets, but large ETF redemptions offset the macro tailwind. The fear and greed index rose from 26 to 34, but the improved sentiment did not immediately translate into BTC buying. 3. BTC implications. Gold first attracted safe-haven funds, while BTC remains suppressed by ETF redemptions and exchange risks. This is not simply a case of "safe-haven assets winning," but a gap in BTC's own capital flow. Only when ETF outflows narrow and BTC reclaims 79,220 can it indicate that the macro tailwind is starting to transmit. Otherwise, a weaker dollar only reduces pressure, it is not an engine for price increase. 4. Observation indicators. I will focus on four indicators next: first, whether single-day ETF outflows can drop below $100 million; second, whether the 5-day cumulative can turn positive; third, whether the dollar can continue below 102; fourth, BTSun Ge's recent moves are really baffling!
He boasts a net worth of up to $85 billion, but when it comes to raising $140 million, reports reveal he's shuffling funds around and even seems a bit strapped for cash?
First, he pledged 580 million $TRX, then issued an additional 60 million USDD, subsequently exchanging them for USDT through the official liquidity pool, and finally transferred everything to Binance to earn a 10% financial yield.
This series of operations looks like a grand financial juggling act.
On the surface, he's a glamorous figure with a net worth in the hundreds of billions, but behind the scenes, it's a complex web of pledges, exchanges, and fund movements.
The question is: how much truly free cash does Sun Ge have? Of the so-called $85 billion net worth, how much is real hard capital?
The financial story behind $TRX might be even more worth watching than the market itself!The contract price rising does not mean institutions are buying
Last night the contract surged sharply, and many thought big money had entered.
But the spot ETF data on the same day tells a different story.
How this number is calculated:
$BTC net inflow is 9.63 million, with Fidelity contributing 30 million.
BlackRock ran nearly 26 million in the same period, hedging between the two sides.
Common misinterpretations:
$ETH shows a superficial net inflow of 23,300, which looks like a positive shift.
BlackRock sold nearly 100 million in a single day, and Grayscale is buying.
This is turnover, not adding positions.
$SOL’s three data points are all zero; institutions don’t even provide numbers.
The contract side is lively, but no one is placing orders on the spot side.
Contracts reflect sentiment; spot is real money.
When several institutions turn positive together someday, that will be the bottom.
#BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 $BTC $ETH Brothers, daily mainstream altcoin quick report
$XRP $1.32 |$SOL $96.8 |$DOGE $0.0771
XRP's ETF is the only one that hasn't run in this wave. Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs had a combined outflow of $634 million, while XRP ETF had a net inflow of $4.32 million, positive for the second consecutive week. The price bounced back to 1.32, up about 2.8% in 24 hours, with 71.6% of global accounts long, and 74.1% of top traders bullish. But 1.35 above is the 200-day moving average, also the first hard resistance in this rebound.
SOL is very active on-chain, but ETFs are running out. Samsung's 82 million phones will connect to Solana's USDC transfers by the end of the month, Securitize issued 12 tokenized US stocks on Solana, with 1.7 million new wallets daily. However, the US spot SOL ETF has had net outflows for four consecutive days, with on-chain activity and institutional funds moving separately. The price is 96.8, 90 is a structural breakout level, only above it is there a chance to see 100-114.
DOGE's ETF is basically gone. The Dogecoin spot ETF pool only has $720,000 left, with total trading volume in September just over $50,000, liquidity is exhausted, exit is only a matter of time. The price is 0.0771, up about 2.6% in 24 hours, but technically still bearish, down nearly 20% in a month.
Let's discuss in the comments, between XRP's lone ETF and SOL's on-chain prosperity, which do you trust this time?👇
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ In my spare time at work, I looked through Brother 800's open orders. Despite losing 3.81 million, he’s still adding more long positions. I think I understand this big player’s strategy.
First, look at the performance, quite scary: a total loss of over 3.81 million USD, performance -86.78%, 30-day win rate 10.9%. At his peak, four accounts lost over 30 million and are now recovering.
All positions are long, three trades totaling 4.54 million USD. Two BTC trades: the 67701 old position has an unrealized profit of 375%, the 77997 new position has 59% unrealized profit; one ETH trade at 2289 with 94% unrealized profit. Leverage ranges from 17 to 20 times, margin rate at a minimum of 943%, liquidation price left empty, far from liquidation.
The strategy is clear: left-side bottom fishing, buying more as prices fall, splitting orders and positions. Not relying on win rate, enduring nine losses in a row, relying on big trades to recover losses. The 67701 trade was picked up during a big drop and held until now.
Positioning sense and margin discipline are real skills. But the -86% performance shows the old problem remains: the curve went from earning 1.59 million to losing 3.83 million, winning but not stopping, giving back even more. One BTC trade is still full position at 19x leverage, the biggest risk is one sharp move wiping out the entire account.
The market is currently favoring his style: BTC holding around 80,000, ETH recovering, SOL weaker, ZEC the most volatile. He only trades BTC and ETH, which is disciplined. Tonight the Bank of England rate decision and initial jobless claims, tomorrow night the nonfarm payrolls. If the market really crashes, he will just keep adding. Just learn his margin rate, don’t copy the position size.The Democratic Party took control of both chambers of Congress (the "Blue Wave").
The market rebounded in the short term due to the elimination of uncertainty, but long-term concerns increased: the Democratic Party may strengthen investigations and regulations on Trump-related crypto businesses and large tech companies, and pro-crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act may face obstacles.
The large amount of money invested by the crypto industry in the election failed to prevent the loss of some key seats. $SPCX Beichen once again provided precise entry points, nailing this wave of entry points perfectly 🤩
Yesterday, Beichen suggested a short strategy on the 137-138 rebound range. After the rebound reached that range in the evening, it was smashed all the way down, hitting a low of 129, even lower than Beichen's target point.
For why to short, you can check the blog post Beichen posted yesterday (Image 1). The sharp rebound after bottoming out yesterday was mainly due to profit-taking on short positions established during the rapid drop, which pushed the price up quickly.
Today it has pulled back again to the current 134 level, indicating that selling pressure and trapped positions above still exist, and the bulls lack momentum.
The short-term outlook remains bearish. Consider shorting on rebounds at 136-137, manage your positions well, with a target below 130! #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ You don't need to blindly trust us; we hope you will continuously verify us.
Recently, the community has raised many serious questions: Where is the development progress? How will the eight-year plan be implemented? Can cross-border payments truly work? How should contract permissions, liquidity, and actual usage value be assessed?
These questions should not be avoided.
1. Vision cannot replace delivery.
Discussing global payments and blockchain infrastructure does not mean the related capabilities have been realized. Code repositories, test records, and phased results can help the community understand actual progress. But open code does not mean the product is complete, nor does it mean security has been fully verified.
2. Long-termism does not mean indefinite waiting.
The eight-year plan should be broken down into verifiable phased goals as much as possible. What work has been completed? What is still in progress? What evidence can the community verify?
Long-term goals are worth discussing, but trust must be built gradually at every stage.
3. Cross-border payments require real scenario validation.
Cross-border payments are not just about transferring tokens from one address to another; they also involve exchange costs, exchange rate spreads, arrival times, failure handling, recipient usage conditions, and compliance requirements.
Specific scenarios should be validated first, and then broader application prospects discussed based on actual test results. Why is it easier to find problems in a strategy when the trade records are more detailed?
Because if you only record profits and losses, you can only know the outcome; recording entry reasons, execution deviations, trading costs, and risks allows for further analysis of the causes.
Reviewing trades is not to make excuses for losses but to validate your trading hypotheses.
Do you record the entry reason for each trade?The most expensive lesson this hacker learned wasn't how to access the hot wallet, but that the stolen stablecoins could still be reclaimed by the other side. So before the freeze took effect, they quickly swapped what could be clawed back into ETH, which no one could claw back. Someone calculated this price difference to be about $119 million — marking the first time the "decentralization premium" was quantified in real money.
Originally, about 200,000 ETH were taken, but after trading, it turned into over 520,000 ETH. Tether and Circle can freeze USDT and USDC, but they can't freeze native ETH or those 18,270 bitcoins. So in the following days, the whole market debated the refill percentage; on-chain, the coins truly still alive were these ones without any on/off switch.
Do you think next time someone steals from an exchange, their first reaction will still be to move stablecoins?Does holding 10 types of cryptocurrencies mean your risk is diversified?
Not necessarily.
Different tokens may be affected by the same market sentiment, liquidity, and capital flows. Even in different sectors, they can face pressure simultaneously during a market downturn.
True diversification is not about increasing the number of coins, but understanding the sources of risk and the correlations within your overall portfolio.
Do you focus more on the number of coins or on risk correlation? #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ The market has already priced in a high probability of a rate hike in December in advance. This non-farm payroll report is a key verification window. The focus is not only on new employment but also on wage growth, unemployment rate, and revisions to previous data, which have a stronger impact on expectations.
If the non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, wages rise, and the unemployment rate falls, it indicates sufficient labor market resilience, household income supports consumption, and the pace of inflation decline is hindered. This will directly strengthen the pricing of a December rate hike, causing U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar to strengthen, while U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto assets come under pressure.
If the data meets expectations, it will likely maintain the current pricing with limited market volatility, awaiting further confirmation from subsequent CPI and PCE inflation data. Employment is steady but not overheated, and the Federal Reserve will remain cautious.
If the non-farm payrolls are clearly below expectations, unemployment rises, and wages cool down, it will weaken the rate hike logic, and trading funds will start betting on a pause in rate hikes. U.S. Treasury yields will decline, and risk assets will see a phase rebound.
But note: The Federal Reserve's core goal is inflation; employment is only an auxiliary signal. Even if employment is strong, if inflation continues to decline afterward, rate hikes remain uncertain. The short term is an expectation game, prone to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. $BTC $ETH $ZEC I immediately felt a sense of familiarity from the previous round: financing to buy coins, and the market is once again telling stories around capital structure.
DDC is issuing preferred shares SAVOR, planning to raise $24 million to repay convertible bonds, reserve dividends, and increase BTC holdings, with an annual dividend rate of 13.5%.
Compared to the hoarding narrative, this time I'm more focused on the financing cost. I see this as a signal of the treasury sector competing on financing capability; it can't be fully counted as new buying pressure since funds still need to cover old debts and dividends. I'll be watching whether the cash flow can hold up. There's something that has always been quite counterintuitive: Ethereum being slow isn't because no one is trying; in a way, it's intentional. Every node has to recalculate the same transaction from scratch, preferring to be slow rather than trusting results calculated by others.
On November 5, Vitalik said that in the coming years they plan to use GPUs to turn this into parallel processing, while still ensuring decentralization. In plain language: they want speed but don't want to revert to a single server.
My first reaction was, isn't this wanting it both ways? But he said "in the coming years," which shows he knows it's not easy. $ETH holders are probably familiar with this dilemma—complaining about slowness when prices rise, but grateful for stability when it's slow.
Keep this statement in mind; don't rush to see it as a positive signal.当前最值得警惕的，不是多头有多热，而是多空杠杆比已经拉到一个极端失衡的位置。$BTC 的借币买入量为1540.29枚，借币卖出仅77.48枚；$ETH 买入端1.51万枚对卖出端1603.49枚；$SOL 买入12.8万枚对卖出7401.42枚。三者的多空借贷比例都指向同一个方向——市场情绪几乎一边倒地押注上涨。 这种结构的关键含义常被误读。多数人看到“借贷买入持续增加”就简单理解为看涨信号，但杠杆借贷的本质是放大敞口，而不是创造方向。当买入借贷的密度连续攀升，意味着大量头寸建立在借来的筹码上，这些头寸的持有成本和对价格波动的敏感度都远高于现货买盘。换句话说，上涨时它们加速推升，回调时它们也会加速离场。 更值得注意的是三个主流币种同步出现这一特征。$BTC、$ETH、$SOL 同时呈现买入杠杆远超卖出的格局，说明这不是单一资产的局部现象，而是资金在主流标的上的一致行为。历史经验里，当买入密度集中且持续抬升，短期集中止盈和震荡调整的概率会同步上升——不是因为趋势一定反转，而是因为杠杆结构本身变得脆弱，任何一次价格停滞都可能触发连锁的减仓动作。 真正被低估的信号，是卖出借贷端的绝对低位。$Once Circle's Q3 earnings report was released, the stock price surged pre-market and then fell back. My view is simple: the reason this market outperformed expectations is driven by the token issuance narrative, not stablecoins. #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
Regarding the earnings report, here are answers to the three most concerned questions:
1. Did revenue really increase?
Yes, it reached a new quarterly high of 865 million. However, 182 million of that was one-time income from selling their own ARC tokens. Excluding this, the core business revenue actually declined.
2. Is there a problem with USDC itself?
The coin is normal. On-chain transaction volume has grown nearly 50% over the past year, and about 80% of all market transactions use USDC; after the incident next door, there was still a net inflow of 2.5 billion within 24 hours, so it remains relatively stable. But circulation volume is stagnant, and market share has been eroded. People use it as cash to spend, not as an asset for investment.
3. Will it rise or fall next?
USDC will always be one dollar, so asking about rise or fall is meaningless. The real question is CRCL: a company that lives off interest hitting a rate cut cycle, and in Q4 still has to give concessions to the competitor next door. The stock price has already been cut in half from its peak. This earnings report has no major negative news, but also no new narrative. I lean towards a volatile bottoming process.
Friends holding USDC now don’t need to panic; buying CRCL at 70-80 is also a good position. The project is still running, but the previous story of easy money printing has ended. On November 5th, Vitalik Buterin said something: In the coming years, Ethereum will use cutting-edge technologies including GPUs to achieve multitasking parallel processing while maintaining decentralization.
The weight of this statement lies in that it touches Ethereum's most fundamental structure. On-chain execution has long been single-threaded, with each node recalculating the same transaction. The slowness is the cost but also the confidence behind its claim of decentralization. To speed up, this structure cannot be bypassed.
But using GPUs is not as simple as just changing hardware. GPUs excel at running many identical computations simultaneously, while Ethereum processes general state updates, which don't align. A new execution and verification structure must be added in between. When he says "in the coming years," it's not just politeness; this work really will take years.
More informative is the latter half of the sentence: the Foundation will next focus only on four areas—technical level, security, privacy protection, and openness. Anything beyond their expertise will be left to users and the community to explore. This is a boundary contraction—from "the Foundation pushes everything" to "setting standards, providing tools, and letting the ecosystem grow on its own."
In terms of trading, $ETH gains a direction of certainty spanning several years, and the narratives for scaling layers $ARB and $OP are also reconfirmed. But there is no tradable timeline in the short term; the news itself is not a catalyst.
What’s truly worth considering is: once parallel processing really runs, will the node threshold capable of running GPUs be raised? Is the phrase "maintain decentralization" a promise or just reassurance?"Nonfarm Payrolls Night Attack, Don't Directly Equate Weak Employment to Rate Cuts"
ADP employment increased by about 91,000, while the market's expectation for nonfarm payrolls is only 65,000. The data divergence is amplifying market uncertainty. If nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations, it may not be favorable for risk assets, and recession concerns could trigger sell-offs; if the data is strong, the expectation for a December rate cut may cool further, and the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields will suppress liquidity.
BTC's current rebound lacks volume support, ETF funds are insufficiently sustained, and selling pressure above remains obvious. ETH is performing even weaker, with limited capital support, so it is temporarily unwise to blindly bottom-fish.
$XAUT Gold benefits from safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchase expectations; the higher the macro uncertainty, the more the defensive value of gold deserves attention.
The boss says: Tonight's focus is not on guessing the rise or fall of nonfarm payrolls, but on observing the capital reaction after the data release. There is a high risk of spikes up and down, so do not chase gains or blindly bottom-fish, and orders must have stop-losses set.
Latest news: After the U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party took control of both houses of Congress. The market bets that the U.S.-Iran situation may ease, Brent crude oil briefly fell to around $94, and safe-haven and inflation expectations are being repriced. Reuters +3
$BTC $ETH $XAUT
#NonfarmDataUpcoming #FedRateExpectations #USIranSituationImpactGlobalMarkets ETF is crazily running away, but whales are bottom-fishing? The 80,000 mark has become a “empty city stratagem”!
ETF has seen a net outflow of $859 million over 6 consecutive days, but whale holdings have surged to 3.03 million coins, marking the fastest increase since February this year. ETFs are selling, whales are buying—it sounds intense, but the truth is that support below 80,000 is thinning—the large buy orders near 80,000 on Binance’s order book have been absorbed, and new orders are all clustered around 78,000; breaking below means a vacuum.
$BTC 80,367 (+0.08%). Whales are divided internally: on Hyperliquid, whale positions have turned net short for the first time since March this year, and some whales are selling BTC to switch to ETH. The 80,000 level is paper-thin, not an iron bottom.
$ETH 2,415.15 (-0.47%). One whale built a $14.76 million ETH position over three days at an average price of 2,352, with an unrealized profit of 477,000; but another whale sold $6.36 million worth of ETH and stETH within 10 hours. Big players are fighting; retail investors should not take sides.
$OKB 111.21 (+0.60%). OKX leads with a net inflow of 445 million, but OKB’s daily trading volume has shrunk to just a few million dollars. X Layer’s gas fees are not flowing back to OKB, so the story doesn’t hold.
Summary: ETFs are withdrawing, whales are rotating positions, and the 80,000 support is thinning. Do you think whales are smart money or bag holders? Will 80,000 hold tonight? Place your bets in the comments!
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ His core promises after taking office:
- Replace the SEC's aggressive regulatory team, stop "enforcement-style regulation," and no longer sue exchanges and project teams everywhere;
- Establish a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, and the government will no longer sell confiscated BTC;
- Promote the stablecoin bill GENIUS Act to provide a compliance framework for the industry;
- Slogan: Make the U.S. the global crypto capital, friendly to the industry.
This set of expectations was an important emotional driver behind BTC's rally from the lows and institutions' willingness to enter the market. The market priced it as a certainty of positive news.
2. If he leaves office, there are two layers of impact
Short term (emotional level, fastest reaction)
The market's first reaction would be the fading of positive expectations, "Trump bull narrative falsified," which could trigger a wave of profit-taking sales and bull stop-losses, known as the "Trump trade collapse."
But a key point: laws already enacted (such as the stablecoin bill) will not be immediately invalidated by a change in president; only executive orders and White House working groups can be changed by a new president.
- Bills are passed by Congress and are slow to change;
- Strategic Bitcoin reserve and SEC's lenient guidance are executive orders that a new president can overturn at any time.
Mid to long term, the biggest variable is the stance of the successor
1) If a Democrat with a regulatory bias (similar to Biden's approach) takes office:
Highly likely to tighten SEC regulation again, restart lawsuits against exchanges, reconsider selling the government's BTC holdings, which is bearish and will keep BTC under pressure"Rebound under the shadow of regulation, how far can it go?" The Democrats swept the midterm elections, instantly igniting risk appetite, with BTC returning to 80,000 and ETH surging strongly. But the underlying tone of this rally is not clean.
BTC ($80,284): Standing above 80,000 seems strong, but two major obstacles loom: miner Riot sold 79% of its holdings in Q3 to shift to AI, and the Democrats have historically taken a tough stance on crypto regulation. This rebound looks more like short covering rather than new long entries.
ETH ($2,413): The strongest rebound, with a single-day net inflow of $53.02 million into ETFs providing real ammunition. The key is whether the $2,411 support can hold; the first target above is $2,548, but RSI is already near overbought, so chasing the rally requires caution.
SOL ($96.58): Its high beta characteristic is fully exposed. The rebound is fast, but the drop is also the deepest—SOL fell over 5% during the Binance incident, a larger drop than BTC and ETH, and the spot SOL ETF saw its largest single-day outflow. Until it recovers $100, the structure remains bearish.
Summary: This rebound is driven by fading political uncertainty, but regulatory legislative deadlock and funding concerns remain unresolved. "Sentiment repair" and "structural repair" are two different things. Do you think BTC can hold above 80,000 this time, or will it retest lower before regulatory news lands? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ BTC has rebounded, has the money really come back?
Don't rush to look at the price increase, first look at the funds.
On November 4th, BTC rebounded from around $75,700 intraday to near $80,000.
But the other three sets of data are not so optimistic.
The US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of about $1.157 billion over three consecutive days before, and although it turned to a net inflow of $35.1 million on November 4th, the scale is still very small.
Fexr data shows that as of 00:00 UTC on November 4th, the combined supply of USDT and USDC decreased by about $772 million in the past 24 hours.
On the other hand, DefiLlama data shows that on-chain RWA Active AUM is about $30.392 billion, with a 0.67% increase in 24 hours.
Looking at these four signals together:
Price has rebounded, ETF has slightly returned, stablecoin supply has contracted, and RWA scale continues to grow.
My judgment: this looks more like a price correction and cannot yet confirm a full return of incremental funds.
Next, watch whether ETF inflows continue and stablecoin supply can stabilize.
Don't take a one-day rebound as the start of a new funding cycle.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Currently, the market's expectation for a December rate hike is close to 80%, which is already quite high.
Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 65,000, while the previous figure was only 29,000.
I think there's an interesting point this time: the market's tolerance for employment data might already be very limited.
If the data is strong, it will further reinforce rate hike expectations, and risk assets will continue to be under pressure. Before the major drop in the US stock market, only two sectors remained in an uptrend: energy and pharmaceuticals.
Currently, the energy sector has also receded, leaving only pharmaceuticals still in a high-level uptrend.
The AI chain has experienced the most severe decline. $SNDK had a rapid increase earlier, but now that it has receded, it is less stable than $SKHYNIX and $MU, the two companies working on HBM. It's quite difficult for flash memory to rebound.
Now carbon-based stocks are bottoming out and recovering, but there is no new story or new capital entering.
Even if there is a rebound, it will need to consolidate the bottom first. I still lean towards this being a rebound. The question is when the last sector hitting new highs will also be crushed.
Although I am in tech, objectively speaking, it is entering a downturn. I will sell during the short-term rebound.
Waiting for the right opportunity to reposition.
#閃迪暗盤暴跌超50%，漲價邏輯遭質疑 Across the past six trading sessions, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $928 million in net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs have seen around $455 million withdrawn. Although the November 4 rebound offers a positive signal, it is still too early to consider it a meaningful reversal of the broader trend. The biggest concern remains the lack of consistent institutional demand. While Bitcoin continues to attract occasional inflows, repeated ETF redemptions indicate that some investors are reduc#zcash NU7 upgrade expected to lock $16 million ZEC unable to be transferred
【Follow Old Chive Wealth You Have】Old Chive Observation: Zcash NU7 upgrade will lock about $16 million ZEC, the old privacy pool faces an exit countdown!
📊 What impact does this have on the market?
$ZEC: Funds in the old privacy pool cannot be transferred out, which may trigger short-term attention, but this does not mean a reduction in ZEC supply, nor can it be directly seen as bullish. The market should pay more attention to whether the upgrade goes smoothly and the compatibility of wallets and nodes.
Zcash ecosystem: Retiring old privacy technology helps reduce software complexity and maintenance burden; shortening block time also improves transaction confirmation experience. However, during the upgrade, old wallet users and infrastructure service providers need to pay special attention to compatibility.
1️⃣ About 12,200 ZEC face the risk of being unable to transfer out
In the past week, the Sprout pool balance dropped from about 22,263 to 12,226, with over 10,000 ZEC already transferred out.
2️⃣ Having the private key does not necessarily mean transfers are still possible
However, these tokens are not destroyed and still count towards ZEC supply. ZIP 2003 also retains the possibility of restoring access through future network upgrades, but this is not guaranteed.
3️⃣ NU7 not only closes the old privacy pool but also brings performance upgrades
The main changes in this upgrade include:
Block time shortened: from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, aiming to increase block production speed by about 3 times. Conclusion first: On November 4, Hong Kong's Legislative Council passed the draft "Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF)", requiring exchanges, brokers, and some crypto ATMs to collect customer information and transaction details to report to the tax authority starting in 2027, with annual exchanges based on reciprocity with other jurisdictions starting in 2028. Three key points to watch:
1. The scope is broader than you think. Crypto-to-crypto exchanges are included; "no fiat outflow, just swapping between coins" still requires record-keeping; NFTs that are payable/investable are also included.
2. What must be reported is not just the amount, but also tax residency status + Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN). This is more urgent than penalties—if the TIN is incorrect, it means transaction records are reported to another country's tax authority.
3. Coin prices have not reacted yet. $BTC current price is 80,363, 24h +2.46%; November 4 daily low 75,690, high 81,199. Hong Kong is one of Asia's most concentrated trading markets, but this move is about compliance costs first, not capital outflows; meanwhile, South Korea is pushing crypto tax deferral to 2029.
My approach: first verify the tax residency information and TIN on accounts, keep cost evidence for large transactions; for market makers and arbitrageurs, the real threshold after 2027 will be whether client identities can pass due diligence.
Which jurisdictions do you think will be on the first exchange list in 2028? $BTC #Sony Q2 Operating Profit Grows 45%, Raises Full-Year Performance Guidance Core conclusion first: This time, the "entertainment segment explosion supports the earnings report," while sensors and camera hardware are relatively weak. This is a structural strength, not a broad-based business-wide increase. The raised guidance and dividend increase justify the market's positive feedback, but there are hidden concerns.
Highlights (main drivers behind the 45% profit growth)
1. Gaming G&NS is the largest engine, with profits soaring 82.9%
PS5 hardware plus first-party games and subscription service monetization performed well. Previously, the market worried about weakness in the latter half of the PS5 cycle; this quarter directly dispelled some of those concerns. PS Plus memberships, in-game purchases, and blockbuster titles continue to contribute profits. This segment is now Sony's most stable cash cow.
2. Film business is highly elastic, profits multiplied several times
Mainly driven by the blockbuster box office of "Spider-Man 4," a single hit movie directly lifted the film segment from low profits to high contribution. However, the film business is inherently unstable, driven by single movies, representing a one-time bonus that cannot be continuously replicated.
3. Generous guidance raise and sharp dividend increase
Full-year operating profit guidance raised by 9%, and dividends directly increased from ¥25 to ¥35 (+40%), which strongly attracts long-term capital and is the direct reason for the nearly 5% pre-market surge. Management shows strong confidence in the second half of the year.
4. Music business is steady, streaming copyright income stable, serving as a slow-growth ballast with very little fluctuation.
Shortcomings and risks (can't just look at the attractive total profit) I don't currently believe that this rebound in Bitcoin has reversed the trend.
A couple of days ago, it dropped to around 75,000, and now it's back above 80,000. Market sentiment has changed in just a few days.
Let me explain why I'm still not very optimistic about this rebound.
First, this round of decline hasn't disappeared just because the price bounced back; the selling pressure accumulated earlier still needs time to be digested. The Democratic Party took control of both the House and Senate, but lost the governorships in key data center states like Texas, Georgia, and Ohio. The new governors have explicitly stated during their campaigns that they want to pause new data center construction. Goldman Sachs estimates that about 45% of planned expansion capacity in the U.S. faces policy risks, with Texas alone accounting for 25%. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have more than half of their orders tied to U.S. AI computing power; if this expectation changes, foreign capital with low-cost chips will definitely exit first. However, there is a detail. Although the Democrats control both chambers, the Senate holds about 54-56 seats, still short of the 60 votes needed for an absolute majority. Any attempt to push comprehensive restrictive legislation would be vetoed by the president. Therefore, the real impact is not at the federal legislative level but at the state-level approval bottlenecks, causing project delays and cost increases, shifting valuation logic from high-speed growth to slower growth. On the fundamentals side, storage orders for 2027-2028 still significantly exceed capacity, and the supply-demand gap will not disappear in the short term. But the market trades on marginal changes, not absolute values. When prices rise, growth rate matters; when prices fall, growth rate also matters—the logic is symmetrical. Stocks and cryptocurrencies are indeed different. The crypto market is mainly liquidity-driven, while U.S. stocks are priced based on discounted cash flows. When policy expectations change, the risk premium in the denominator rises directly, reconstructing the valuation model. A large drop does not necessarily mean a rebound; it depends on whether the fundamentals justify a revaluation. Going forward, keep an eye on the confirmation of Senate seats, but the more critical observation points are the specific terms of the pause order issued by the new Texas governor and whether cloud providers will lower their Q4 capital expenditure guidance. These two factors are the real storage indicators.Ethereum rose over 8%, BEAT has content business, AVAX hasn't reclaimed 9 yet
$ETH 2432.55, up 8.1% in the last 24 hours, rising fast, staking still needs accounting ⚡
Staking rewards come from validation work; when total staked amount increases, the base reward per unit staked is diluted. Price increase and staking annualized yield are not the same.
Ethereum's rebound is obvious; evaluating staking still requires deducting operational and service costs. Price elasticity has appeared, but yield cannot be imagined simply by the price increase.
Besides the participation threshold, fees are also critical.
$BEAT 0.10275, up 4.2% in the last 24 hours, songs need listeners for the coin to have a purpose 🎵
Audiera integrates music creation, content voting, and advanced features into the token economy, allowing participants to be incentivized. The focus is on reasons for use beyond rewards.
Creators receive tokens, but why others are willing to continue using it is the second half of this business. Compared to just talking about AI music hype, I value more whether the content can retain people and keep rewards circulating through usage.
$AVAX 8.848, up 5.4% in the last 24 hours, hasn't held above 9 📉
After touching 9.16, it fell back to the 8 range, then was lifted again from around 8.64. There is a rebound, but the occupation of upper space is not completed.
This pullback changed the rhythm: the increase looks significant, but the price is still below the previous surge area. It needs to push the trading focus upward, not just leave a higher momentary quote.
Recovery can be discussed, but sustained breakthrough cannot be concluded prematurely.- A long position of ETH with 25x leverage, the liquidation price is only 25 USD away from the entry price. This is not a joke; it's a real position on-chain. Guess who will blink first in this position structure? I was stunned when I just saw this data. A whale holds a long ETH position worth about 17.47 million USD, opened at 2366, liquidation line at 2391, meaning if the price dips just a little, the entire position is gone. On the other side, the largest short position is about 6430 ETH, nominally 15.6 million USD, 25x leverage, average price 2294, liquidation price 6532, and this position accounts for more than 60% of his unrealized profit. Don't rush to take sides; what really matters here is the derivatives structure, not who is right or wrong. The problem for the longs is not the direction but the position. The liquidation price is close to the entry price, meaning there is no room for error; any spike-like pullback could trigger forced liquidation, and forced liquidation itself will push the price down, creating a self-reinforcing short-term pulse. This position is the market's gunpowder, not the market's direction. The shorts look much more comfortable, with a low average price and liquidation far away, but note that 6532 liquidation price and the cross margin mode. Cross margin means his other assets are backing this position, and the unrealized profit ratio is high; once ETH rapidly rallies, the profit retracement will force him to choose: reduce position or add margin. This structure is actually unstable during an uptrend. So the market is not trading "whether ETH will go up or down" now, but "whose stop loss will be hit first." These are two completely$ETH ETH current market overview, speaking frankly 😅
Overall news is mostly bearish: continuous large net outflows from ETH ETFs, institutional funds exiting; US crypto-related legislation setbacks, increased expectations of tighter regulation; corporate buyers have stopped increasing holdings. Only the withdrawal of the staking proposal and the on-chain staking rate remaining healthy are slightly positive, but these are risk removals rather than new drivers.
Externally, there is short-term support from macro factors, with the dollar and oil prices falling, and market risk appetite somewhat recovering; however, in the medium term, it is still suppressed by Fed rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields, and regulatory expectations. Short term is slightly bullish, 1-2 weeks is neutral to bearish.
Three-dimensional cross-analysis: short-term oversold rebound with a target range of 2430-2450; mid-term 1-2 weeks constrained by multiple bearish factors, rebound is better used as a shorting opportunity; long-term 1-3 months environment is bearish, waiting for the Fed to pivot.
Key levels:
Resistance at 2430, strong resistance at 2451; current price 2412
Support at 2379, 2355, lower target 2274 🚨 $CORE | Is the CORE public chain still alive, or has it become nothing more than a static specimen? Some brothers on OKX still believe the CORE public chain is actively operating. But looking at its on-chain activity, the reality appears much less encouraging. 📊 1. Hundreds of contracts, but very little real activity Statistics show that approximately 300 contracts are registered in the CORE ecosystem, yet only a dozen or so appear to have continuous funding, genuine users, and relatively stBig Brother Maji has made a killing again this round!
Not only is he going long, but he's also scaling up his position, increasing from over 2,000 contracts to nearly 6,700 contracts with 25x leverage. The latest average entry price is 2366, with unrealized profits soaring above $460,000, but the liquidation price has also been pushed up to 2391.
Brother is confidently pushing forward, but I’m actually not very optimistic about this short-term move. I suggest setting up short positions around 2450.
The reason is simple:
This rebound after the election results feels more like a short squeeze repair after uncertainty has been removed, rather than the start of a new trend. $ETH faces significant resistance near 2450, with limited upside space. After the Democrats took Congress, regulatory expectations have actually worsened, and institutional funds won’t re-enter the market quickly. High-leverage players adding longs at this level are more likely to become fuel for a later drop.
I don’t recommend chasing longs now.
The current rebound has limited height, and the upside space is smaller than the downside risk. If you already have long positions, consider scaling out partially or tightening stop losses near your cost.
Trading plan:
Consider shorting ETH on a rebound to 2450-2480, or wait to short after a break below 2350. Place stop loss above 2500. For short-term take profit, watch Maji’s liquidation price at 2391, with the next target around 2300-2250.
Market sentiment has warmed up, but don’t forget the nature of this rebound and the potential regulatory pressure ahead. High-leverage longs piled up here mean that once sentiment turns sour, the drop will come fast. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The easiest thing to misinterpret this time might not be the rise of INJ, but the statement "ETF has already brought in institutional funds."
Nasdaq has approved Canary's Staked Injective ETF listing application, with the ticker INJC. The news sounds impressive, but approval for listing does not mean it can be bought yet; the official trading start date has not been announced, and the custody and validator allocation details have not been clarified.
More importantly, INJ is trading at 8.41 USDT on OKX spot, up about 10.25% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 8.474; during the same period, BTC rose about 2.54%, and ETH about 4.17%. This indicates that the market has already priced in the "ETF expectation" in advance. At least 90% of the underlying INJ is intended for staking, with a sponsorship fee of about 1.10% per year, which sounds promising product-wise, but it cannot yet be directly equated to funds having entered the market.
Therefore, I prefer to characterize it as: sentiment running ahead, not institutional buying landing. Next, which interpretation do you choose: A, continued fermentation after the trading day announcement; B, cooling off after the positive news is realized? #BTC进入摩根大通长期预测，机构配置仍谨慎 $INJ $BTC $ETH The French National Assembly rejected the revenue part of the 2027 budget with 458 votes against, 0 votes in favor, and 2 abstentions. This is not a "rejection of the crypto tax," but the entire revenue section was overturned, so the approved crypto amendments did not enter the text submitted to the Senate. The 0 votes in favor are striking—not a division, but a collective refusal.
Three items were taken down together. Income from cryptocurrency exchanges to stablecoins will be taxed; taxpayers must declare self-custodied assets valued at least €100,000, assessed as of December 31 of the tax year; platforms failing to provide required information will face fines increased from €10,000 to €50,000. The intent of these three combined is clear: to cover the two hardest-to-monitor areas, self-custody and stablecoin exchanges.
But the process is far from over. Although the text was rejected, the proposal can still be reintroduced in the Senate and must go through subsequent budget reviews to become law. The Senate will review the finance bill on November 20 and specifically examine the revenue clauses on November 23. Two weeks later, the same batch of clauses will most likely return unchanged.
For $BTC and $ETH, this is neither bullish nor bearish; it just postpones uncertainty by two weeks. What’s truly worth watching is whether the Senate will pick up the €100,000 self-custody declaration threshold. If passed, this would be the first European law to include "self-custody of private keys" as a declaration obligation.
One question remains: if the Senate approves it, will other EU countries follow? This is more important than price fluctuations within the next two weeks. After reading, I noted three things. My first reaction is that familiar institutional names can easily make people let their guard down; when it comes to treasury companies, I still have to separately check "who supports" and "what shareholders can do."
1. Evernorth, an XRP treasury company supported by Ripple, saw its stock price plunge after listing on Nasdaq, and on October 30, it applied to the SEC to register 73.7 million shares for potential resale. The list includes Ripple Labs, Arrington XRP Capital, and affiliates of Japan's SBI Holdings. My judgment is that this news is more like a reminder of shareholder interest structure: institutional endorsement cannot replace scrutiny of the listed company itself.
2. I would not directly interpret the registration for resale as "already sold," because obtaining resale conditions and actual execution are two different things. If the subsequent shares enter the public market, then the capacity to absorb them will be practically tested. This is my speculation and should not be taken as a result in advance.
3. I also would not equate the treasury stock price decline directly with negative news for $XRP; potential stock supply and selling pressure on the coin are not the same chain. For ordinary players, it is more important to verify whether there is disclosure of asset disposal rather than drawing conclusions about the coin price based on stock price.
My checklist conclusion is: glance at endorsements, carefully examine shareholder rights; what would everyone add as a fourth point, actual resale progress or treasury asset changes?