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#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
1. COVID-19 Vaccine (Core Business)
After the pandemic dividend fades, the COVID-19 vaccine has become a seasonal chronic disease vaccine, no longer experiencing explosive sales.
Key points to watch: the vaccination penetration rate of the new mNEXSPIKE (next-generation COVID-19 vaccine), the volume purchased by U.S. pharmacies, comparison of market share with Pfizer, and overseas government orders.
Risk factor: the continuous decline in public willingness to vaccinate is the biggest factor suppressing revenue.
2. RSV Vaccine mRESVIA (Second Growth Curve)
This is Moderna's first commercialized non-COVID vaccine, which has previously underperformed expectations in volume.
Focus on: penetration rate among the elderly, pricing, competition with rival products, and verifying whether mRNA technology can be replicated for other respiratory viruses. If RSV sales falter, the market will question its commercialization capability.
3. Combination Vaccine mCOMBRIAX (COVID-19 + Flu Combo, Long-term Focus)
A single shot that protects against both flu and COVID-19, this is the company's future core storyline. Watch orders, approval progress, and commercialization expectations to determine long-term valuation. 100 USD, I am more concerned about the "brief touch" earlier. Strategy's STRC preferred stock returned to this level, after months of the company repurchasing shares and continuously consuming cash, Saylor then shouted "We're ₿ack." I think this is a signal of sentiment repair, but it cannot yet be considered a relief of cash pressure.
If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set an observation rule: if the price can sustain above 100 USD, combined with subsequent cash flow changes, then upgrade the assessment of the financing situation. My speculation is that if cash consumption does not ease, then the price rebound may not necessarily translate into new capital allocation space.
The advantage of this rule is that it does not treat a single intraday price touch as a fundamental reversal; the drawback is that waiting for cash flow verification may be a bit slow. As a quantitative newbie, I will first resist the urge to tick the signal and continue to watch whether the price can hold and whether the cash pressure has truly eased 🤖Two giant cumulonimbus clouds are simultaneously forming over the US dollar bond market—Microsoft with $25 billion, Meta with $15 billion. The former is the first return to this airspace since 2017, the latter is the second rain-enhancing operation within six months. What’s more noteworthy is the European side: the debut of the euro bond cloud system, with a precipitation scale of 9 billion but attracting orders totaling 53 billion—water vapor flux far exceeding numerical model forecasts. This is a typical circulation feature of warm-region heavy rain: energy is not lifted by fronts but continuously transported upstream by low-level jets.
Zooming out to 50,000 feet to view the entire front: Oracle’s $20 billion dual bond issuance and Alphabet’s approximately 6 billion euro financing indicate this is not an isolated convective cell but a front stretching thousands of kilometers. Capital expenditure on intelligent computing infrastructure is that continuously northward warm and moist jet, bond issuance is its water vapor transport channel; and interest rate levels are the pressure gradient force. The greater the pressure gradient, the stronger the wind speed; once the financing cost high-pressure ridge extends westward and strengthens, the jet stream will be forced to shift, and the precipitation belt originally over the tech sector will be pushed southward overall.
Credit spreads are my most valued visibility indicator. When spreads narrow, visibility exceeds 10 kilometers, tower clearance standards are relaxed, cloud bases are high, and cloud curtains are thin; once spreads widen, visibility drops below 800 meters, all approach procedures switch to instruments, and the financing window begins to close. The current sounding curve reads: low-level warm and moist, mid-level dry and cold, with relatively large vertical wind shear—under this configuration, any disturbance can trigger strong convection, but the duration won’t be long.
As for the US stock mapping target $xIWM, treat it as an automatic buoy station on the sea surface. Buoy data always lags land radar by half a time unit, and sea surface friction reduces echo peak values—when strong echoes appear locally, buoy readings often are still slowly rising; by the time its data catches up, strong cells have mostly passed. The current batch of ultra-large bond issuances is injecting new moisture into the entire circulation field, warm advection is still transporting, pressure is still falling, and the pre-frontal warming feature is very obvious.
My conclusion is simple: this is not a clear day, it’s pre-frontal warming—the barometer is still dropping, but rain is already on the way. #microsoftmeta40bbondsIs Trump also about to run away?
A few days ago, Trump Media & Technology Group transferred 4,259 $BTC to @cryptocom, worth over 300 million dollars.
These coins are collateral for its 1 billion dollar convertible bonds, and bondholders can demand the company to repurchase with cash on November 30.
The announcement on November 2 said that if there isn't enough money, they might have to sell Bitcoin.
So it's still uncertain whether they have sold or not; they also transferred twice in May and August, and at those times they said they hadn't sold.
However, the Democrats just said they want to investigate Trump's crypto business, making this timing very delicate. #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $ETH $XAU Is the US stock market cooling off? Why is it dropping so hard?
Last night, the US stock market fell with the flavor of a stock crash, with the seven giants evaporating $1.04 trillion in one day. Ironically, the day before, the Dow had just surged 1,569 points celebrating the election results. The market first celebrated the "elimination of uncertainty," then turned to find that the uncertainty had changed direction—from "who governs" to "can AI still burn money like this." Three reasons combined: ① The Democrats not only took both chambers but also won the governorships of Texas and Georgia; data center approval power lies with local authorities, and UBS estimates that about 30% of new capacity in 2028 may be delayed; ② Alphabet's earnings report put "whether AI capital expenditure can pay off" on the table for the first time, which completely ignited last night; ③ Burry's AI bubble theory returned to focus—he is watching the depreciation assumptions, with chips actually depreciating faster than the company's assumptions, making reported profits illusory. So why did BTC dive along? It's not the main character, but it is the most leveraged in the whole market. The Nasdaq dropped 5.5%, and BTC, as a high beta asset, was inevitably sold off; the AI narrative and computing power coins are on the same chain, and when the source collapses, the downstream falls; plus, yesterday it just rebounded from 75,736 to 81,185, a 7% rise in two days, and 81,000 is a strong resistance again, so profit-taking and trapped positions came out together. The result was a drop below 76,000, a 24-hour drop of over 6%, Ethereum down 8%, and 220,000 liquidations across the network. My judgment: the real problem is not political but that the valuation logic of the AI mainline is being systemically questioned for the first time, and this crack won't be fixed in a day. BTC's upper resistance at 81,000 is strong; if 78,000-79,500 doesn't hold, look to 75,700, and breaking that is 72,000. For now, not breaking 75,000 is still a good buying point! Break it and leave! #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $SNDK $ZEC AI is still changing the world, but Wall Street has already started to settle the accounts.
On November 5th, the US stock market suffered a heavy blow:
The Nasdaq plunged 5.5%, the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, the Dow Jones dropped 3.4%, and the Russell 2000 declined 4.4%.
NVIDIA fell 9.3%, AMD plummeted 17.3%, and stocks related to chips, servers, and data centers were collectively sold off.
This time, the market is worried not only that tech stocks have become too expensive.
After the US midterm elections, data center expansions may face stricter scrutiny, coupled with uncertainties in financing costs and massive investment returns, causing optimism in the AI industry chain to waver.
In recent years, tech giants have been pouring money, scrambling for GPUs, and building data centers.
But after investing the money, when will they truly start making profits?
I don't think the AI story is over.
But the market's attitude is changing:
It used to be about who invested more; now it’s about who can actually make money.
This may be the most noteworthy change behind this round of AI tech stock declines.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
I'm just following "Eastern Reappearance" big brother; his predictions are basically all correct.
But I also did some research.
Business background: Q3 is the peak season for respiratory vaccines (COVID, RSV, flu-related). The company previously guided that revenue growth would peak at about 10% in 2026 and mentioned that about 55% of H2 revenue would fall in Q3. Costs are also improving, and cash burn is being controlled. Although still at a loss, it is easier to beat expectations (outperform) relative to forecasts. So tragic
Thursday's closing bloodbath: S&P 7353.73 (-4.36%), the worst single day since April 2025; Nasdaq Composite 24315 (-5.52%), about -11.9% from the 10/6 high, entering correction territory; Dow down about 1833 points (-3.4%).
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reported a drop of about 9%–12%, led by AMD and Micron.
The seven giants collectively evaporated over $1 trillion, Nvidia alone lost over $440 billion in one day, closing down about 9%, turning negative for the year.
The main reason is that after the Democrats took Congress, the market is pricing in a slowdown or tighter regulation of data center/AI infrastructure.
Overnight, the List discussed whether after AI stocks, financial and healthcare sectors will be next.Nasdaq opened down 1.5%, but what you really should be watching isn’t the index, it’s the numbers on the leveraged ETFs. Are you seeing a pullback, or has the volatility structure already shifted gears? When I checked the market this morning, QQQ dropping 1.51% wasn’t that surprising; what really caught my attention was the following string: SOXL, the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF, down 15.60%; SNXX, the double-leveraged SNDK ETF, down 17.21%; KORU, the triple-leveraged Korea ETF, down 15.33%; ARM alone down 10.87%. The index is just having a mild cold, but the leveraged side is already running a fever. This divergence itself indicates that the market isn’t selling because the "fundamentals worsened," but because volatility is being repriced and leveraged funds are forced to slow down. Many people interpret days like this as a "bottom-fishing opportunity," but I first look at position pacing. A triple-leveraged product dropping over 15% means the intraday path is very steep; holders are either forced to reduce positions passively or face margin calls. The selling pressure doesn’t come from bearish views but from risk control actions. This kind of selling ignores valuation and only looks at margin requirements, so it often pushes prices beyond emotional levels. This is also the easiest point to misjudge: you think the market is trading direction, but it’s actually trading leverage capacity. Translated to crypto, the logic isn’t simply "US stocks down means crypto down." QQQ and semiconductors are the front-end thermometers of risk appetite; a high-beta name like ARM dropping nearly 11% in a single day shows that the longest-duration growth narratives are being compressed. BTC usually moves in the same direction as risk assets at this stage but tends to fall less because of its holding structure.4259 BTC, worth about $340 million! Has Trump Media suddenly moved coins, really planning to sell?
On November 5, Arkham data showed that Trump Media's associated wallet transferred 4259 BTC to Crypto.com in two transactions.
These BTC were previously marked as collateral for convertible bonds.
The real focus is November 30.
According to company documents, bondholders can request a cash buyback by then. If fully exercised, the company could face about $1 billion in repayment pressure.
The documents also indicate that if refinancing and other measures fail to resolve the funding issue, the company may need to sell BTC.
But don't rush to conclusions: transferring to an exchange does not mean it has been sold.
The real test is whether Trump Media can resolve the cash pressure before November 30 without touching the Bitcoin they hold.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC quickly fell back after briefly breaking through 81200, leaving a long upper shadow. The current price is 80444, slightly up 0.18%. The 81500–82000 range faces heavy selling pressure, while 79000 is the key level to determine whether this rebound can continue. Major economic data is about to be released, and this round of gains looks more like a stop-loss sweep by bulls and bears rather than a confirmed reversal. Ethereum ($ETH) is more volatile, rising from 2226 to 2450, now at 2426, basically flat. This rise is mainly driven by short covering, not new capital inflow, with ETF funds continuing to flow out. Without new buying in the US session, the leverage-driven rally could easily dissipate quickly. SOL ($SOL) has exposed the rebound's weakness; even as Bitcoin and Ethereum test previous highs, it still hasn't held above 98, currently at 95.57, down 1.16%. Weakness amid a broad rally indicates capital is reluctant to flow into highly volatile assets. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL all show the same characteristic: heavy selling pressure above, with gains being passive. It is still too early to conclude the market will directly decline, but the burden of validation now lies with the bulls. If a V-shaped rebound and short squeeze cannot support SOL holding key levels, the logic behind this rally deserves cautious scrutiny.The storage sector has dropped, don't rush to call it cheap.
$SNDK broke the weekly support, and the storage sector is following down.
First, ask: is what’s falling the price or the expectations?
How is this number calculated: from over two thousand down to over nine hundred, a drop of more than half.
What’s falling is the story of price increases, not the market on a single day.
Who’s connected: Micron and Hynix are on the same cycle.
Good earnings reports reflect last year's accounts; institutions exit first when the cycle turns.
Looking further down, the path to destocking is longer than the path to price increases.
Treat the rebound as a bull trap for now.
Over nine hundred is not the bottom, it’s halfway up the mountain.
#USStock AI sector trend divergence: cloud service providers strengthen, data center stocks under pressure $SNDK$ZEC
I’m not chasing the hype on this wave of ZEC; first, I’m looking at the positions. Ansem said that during the pullback, the privacy narrative might be re-targeted by the market. The breaking news itself is just an opinion, not a capital flow.
OKX current price is 1314, 24-hour open at 1299.11, low at 1212.26, high at 1334.93. At midnight, a 1H candle pulled from 1226 to 1248, then from 6 to 8 AM there was continuous volume increase; at 8 AM volume was about 6.16 million contracts, OI reached $171.7 million, an increase of 8.67 million from 7 AM. Both positions and price rose together, unlike before when it was only short covering.
On the order book, above 1314.81 there are 593 contracts placed, the fee rate of 0.01% has returned to the baseline, perpetual contracts are still at a discount, so those chasing the price aren’t cheap. My judgment is simple: the narrative is warming up, positions are increasing, but it’s not yet at a level where you can blindly chase.
First, see if the new positions can hold through the pullback; don’t treat a single privacy narrative as trend confirmation.
#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 The US midterm elections just passed, and the top trending topic on Orbit is AI regulation and data centers.
NBC exit polls show that 76% of voters oppose building data centers in their communities, and 57% believe AI does more harm than good. The demand for computing power remains, but whether data centers can be built locally increasingly depends on the approval of residents and local authorities.
I think friends in the AI infrastructure and computing power business need to pay attention to this. New data centers are harder to approve, and electricity prices, site selection, and approval timelines all need to be recalculated. Some organizations have suggested that policy uncertainty might lead big companies to prearrange expenditures or crowd into overseas or existing parks.
To be clear, there are currently two business areas worth exploring:
1. Helping existing racks improve utilization to reduce inference costs for the same task
2. Helping projects solve issues related to power, cooling, and park site selection
These also depend on whether clients are willing to pay and if the saved costs can cover service fees. Just having AI demand isn’t enough; if projects can’t get approved, revenue won’t materialize.
Brothers, do you think this round of computing power expansion will ultimately be bottlenecked by chips, or by electricity and approvals?🤔
#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 Usually when people talk about depegging, the scene is always the coin price crashing down. This time it's the opposite—DAI.e on Avalanche is sold at 1.10 USD, 10% more expensive than one dollar.
Something worth one dollar selling for 1.10, my first reaction was that some pool must be broken. Then I thought, maybe it's just that on this chain it's in short supply: many want to get it, few are willing to release it, so the price got pushed up.
What I'm most curious about isn't the price, but those who actually bought in at 1.10—what are they so anxious about? The excitement on $AVAX sometimes comes from situations like this.82% of the repurchase amount is concentrated on individual bonds. Let me first do a straightforward calculation: fully utilizing the quota does not mean the entire market will trade more smoothly. The goal of this round of old debt repurchases by the U.S. Treasury is to improve the liquidity of the government bond market.
I prefer to see it as a partial unblocking rather than directly considering it a liquidity boost benefit for the crypto space. The money is focused on solving one problem; whether other bonds will benefit cannot be assumed. According to my speculation, if the improvement in trading convenience does not spread, then relying solely on the repurchase scale to expect a rebound in risk asset sentiment is a weak argument.
The cost of playing it safe may be a slower pace, while taking risks can lead to overestimating the impact of localized improvements. I choose to be more cautious and first see if the effect spreads before hastily labeling this news as a major positive. Would you wait for broader improvements, or are you willing to take some risk and be optimistic about a crypto sentiment rebound ahead of time? The October US ADP employment report lands at 21:15 tonight, with consensus pointing to a gain of 70,000 jobs. For crypto, the number matters less as a labour-market verdict than as a live input into December rate-cut expectations — and that makes it a short-term volatility trigger for $BTC and $ETH rather than a directional compass. The transmission channel runs through the dollar and Treasury yields. A print above 70,000 would likely lift both, cooling the case for near-term easing and pressurBrothers, SNDK has dropped to 840, crashing 19% in one day, but the real culprit behind this sell-off isn't in the earnings report
$SNDK $840
SNDK closed down sharply by 19.27% near 841 on Thursday, with an intraday low of 803.97. From the June peak of 2354, the pullback has exceeded 64%.
The core reason for the sell-off is the AI regulatory panic after the midterm elections. After the Democrats took both chambers, the market started pricing in tighter approvals for data centers. The Nasdaq fell nearly 5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed over 10%, Micron dropped 14.72%, SK Hynix fell 12.50%, and Western Digital declined 16.06%.
But there's another overlooked thunderbolt: China's Changxin Memory. As of the end of September, Changxin's customer prepayments surged to $1 billion, a 15.7-fold increase compared to the end of 2025, while also claiming to have developed 4F² architecture chips and plans to enter the HBM market. The market is indiscriminately selling off the entire memory sector.
The earnings numbers are actually solid. Q1 revenue was 11.03 billion, up 378% year-over-year, with EPS of 49.51 beating expectations. The problem lies in growth rate: quarter-over-quarter growth was only 23%, compared to 51% last quarter. Consumer-end revenue fell 29% quarter-over-quarter.
Analyst price targets are still lofty. Consensus rating is buy, with an average target price of $2176. But Wells Fargo cut the target price to 1300 and downgraded the rating to "hold."
Let's discuss in the comments: Is the 19% one-day crash of SNDK a case of overselling or is the memory cycle really at its end?👇
#美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 When stablecoins have issues, everyone assumes they will crash downwards. This time, it's the opposite: DAI.e on the Avalanche chain has risen to about $1.10, approximately 10% above the $1 peg.
DAI.e is not the native DAI; it is a bridged version. On several active decentralized exchange liquidity pools on Avalanche, this is the price, and people are actually trading at it.
The key point is that the peg of bridged assets is never on-chain but at the redemption end of the bridge. The on-chain price is just an internal supply and demand thermometer for that chain. A 10% premium indicates one thing: more people want to get it on this chain than those willing to release it. It could be someone urgently needing to use it or the exit channel not being smooth enough. The specific reasons were not mentioned, but the direction is clear.
For holders, this is a paper profit and also a window to exit; for buyers, buying something priced at 1.10 in the pool for one dollar means losing 10% upfront and then waiting for it to return. The liquidity stratification in the $AVAX ecosystem is most exposed in times like this.
Interestingly, we call a discount an accident and a premium an opportunity. The same bridge, the same throughput issue, but changing direction turns it into two different matters.Yesterday it was still above $80,000, but today it quickly dropped back to around $76,000. Is this decline just a shakeout, or the start of a new round of sharp drops?
I believe we must closely watch the following danger signals!
First, Wall Street is collectively retreating!
Last night, the Nasdaq plunged about 5.5%, with tech stocks facing concentrated sell-offs. What’s even more alarming is that although U.S. Treasury yields are falling, BTC did not rise; instead, it plunged along with the U.S. stock market.
What does this indicate?
What the market lacks now is not expectations of rate cuts, but real money willing to take the risk!
Second, institutional funds have not truly returned!
The U.S. spot BTC ETF has seen a net outflow of about $1.066 billion over nearly five full trading days.
Looking at on-chain funds, stablecoin supply is also contracting.
In short: it’s not that no one is buying, but that there are too many sellers and new funds are not strong enough!
$BTC $ETH #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 My first reaction when I saw this message was: don't directly translate "supporters of crypto being re-elected" as "bullish for the crypto market." Newcomers reading policy news tend to focus on a familiar face but overlook whether the power they hold has changed.
According to Cointelegraph, Republican French Hill, who supports cryptocurrencies, won re-election and will continue to serve as a U.S. Congressman; however, with the Democrats taking control of the House in January, he will lose his position as Chair of the House Financial Services Committee.
📌 Here's a knowledge point based on this: personal stance does not equal agenda-driving power. Take January in the example: the same person continuing as a congressman and continuing as committee chair are two different things. The chair position involves agenda setting, and losing this role cannot be assessed simply by the word "re-election."
My judgment is that this is a somewhat negative expectation for crypto policy progress, but it does not mean a policy shift can be concluded. Supporters remain in Congress and still have a voice; the change in chairmanship means the original path for pushing agendas may need adjustment. What really matters is following the subsequent agenda, not just counting how many "crypto allies" there are.
The most common mistake newcomers make is treating a politician's election victory as a price signal, skipping the step of policy implementation. What else do you not understand: which matters more to your judgment of this news—the congressman’s re-election or retaining the chair position? Leave a comment to discuss.Is the US stock market cooling off? Why is it dropping so hard?
Last night, the US stock market gave off the vibe of a crash, with the seven giants evaporating $1.04 trillion in one day. Ironically, the day before, the Dow had just surged 1,569 points celebrating the election results. Then uncertainty shifted direction—from "who governs" to "can AI keep burning money like this?" Three reasons combined: ① The Democrats not only took both chambers but also won the governorships of Texas and Georgia; data center approval power lies locally, and UBS estimates about 30% of new capacity by 2028 may be delayed ② Alphabet’s earnings report for the first time put "can AI capital expenditure pay off" on the table, which completely ignited the market last night ③ Burry’s AI bubble theory returned to focus—he’s watching depreciation assumptions, with chips actually depreciating faster than the company assumes, making reported profits illusory. So why did BTC dive along? It’s not the main character, but it’s the most leveraged player in the whole scene. The AI narrative and computing power coins are on the same chain; when the source collapses, the downstream falls; plus, yesterday it just rebounded from 75,736 to 81,185, a 7% rise in two days, and 81,000 is a hard resistance, so profit-taking and trapped positions came out together. My judgment: the real problem isn’t politics but that the valuation logic of the AI mainline is being systemically questioned for the first time, and this crack won’t be fixed in a day. $BTC has hard resistance above 81,000; if 78,000-79,500 can’t hold, look to 75,700; breaking that is 72,000. For now, not breaking 75,000 is still a good buying point. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 Don't think that tighter AI regulation is purely negative; it's actually a deadlock forcing tech giants to rush ahead crazily. 76% of voters oppose building data centers, forcing giants to rush capital expenditures planned for 2027 ahead to seize policy windows. Computing hardware will still go crazy, but for the crypto circle, this is a fatal drain of funds, as all the liquidity inside the market is being sucked away to build physical infrastructure.
Look at $BTC, the big coin, barely rising by a fraction, just playing dead. All funds are being drained to fight the AI computing power war; no one in the crypto circle cares at all. The non-farm payroll data will hit hard tonight, with heavy resistance overhead like a mountain. Hold long-term spot positions firmly, don't chase highs in the short term, and if you short for the short term, you must set a tight stop loss. Shorting is shorting—never hold on stubbornly; not setting a stop loss is just giving money to the market makers.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, pure sludge. No matter how hot AI infrastructure gets, it has nothing to do with the Ethereum ecosystem—no narrative, no capital support. When the market softens even a bit, it falls the hardest. Don't get itchy watching it sideways and catch a falling knife; there's no bottom underneath.
Look at $XAUT, gold, this is the hardcore logic for hedging. Regulatory divergence intensifies macro capital flight to safety, plus the ongoing Middle East geopolitical issues, with central bank buying holding the floor firmly. No matter how the non-farm data hits tonight, good or bad, gold's resilience far exceeds that of the crypto circle.
In summary, AI's rush has drained market liquidity, and tonight's non-farm payroll is a meat grinder. Control your hands and don't be cannon fodder; surviving this wave of shakeout is the real hard truth. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 ☀️ Uncle's Morning Report｜11.06 ▍CRYPTO｜$80,000 Lost: This Time It's Not the Shorts Being Liquidated BTC Falls Below $76,000, Morning Price at $76,276 (-5.31%), Yesterday's $80,000 level basically retraced. Over $1 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, mainly from long positions being liquidated. Funding Logic: This is not an isolated drop in crypto but a deleveraging across all risk assets. US stocks' AI hardware sector was sold off, risk appetite contracted, and highly leveraged crypto assets took the hit first. Yesterday's rise was driven by short covering; today's drop exposed the fragility of chasing positions. Next Focus: Whether $76,000 can hold; if lost, watch the $75,000–$73,000 range. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls will impact interest rate expectations and the liquidity environment for risk assets. ▍US Stock Overnight Review｜Up 3% Yesterday, Down 5.5% Today: Market Begins to Reassess AI Infrastructure Dow -3.44% at 51,523.06, Nasdaq -5.52% at 24,315, S&P 500 -4.36% at 7,353.73. Nasdaq 100 down 6.4%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down about 12.25%, marking the second-largest single-day drop in history. Nvidia -9.26%, AMD about -17%, Tesla -10.77%. Nasdaq 100-related market cap loss about $2.5 trillion, the seven giants combined lost about $1 trillion. Funding Logic: On November 4, the market was buying on the election result being finalized $AKE It's time to submit the assignment again~🥰 Small position long contract grid
Recent characteristics: volume increases on decline, volume continuously shrinks on rebound
💵 Contract trading volume is much larger than spot, the market is basically dominated by leveraged funds, spot support is weak
📉 During sharp drops, trading volume explodes; during rebound phases, buying quickly shrinks, a typical weak volume-price structure
Key bearish event: Unlock on November 21 (2.11% of total supply), funds hedge in advance, bulls dare not enter aggressively Market Review: $BTC experienced a typical long-short squeeze yesterday. The market generally expected further downside after the negative news, but it found support near 75,500 and rebounded, breaking through 79,000 consecutively and approaching 81,000 before entering a consolidation phase. This sharp rally seemed more like a concentrated short squeeze; the author's short position was also stopped out yesterday.
Key Levels: The four-hour structure still looks fragile, with daily resistance concentrated around 80,000; the surge to 81,000 yesterday can be seen as a short squeeze move. If it can hold above the 80,000 level going forward, there is still potential for further upside, but the difficulty appears significant at present. Regarding $ETH, 2,250 was previously seen as a rebound support line. Due to the "Yellow Hair losing Senate election" smoke screen, the price briefly fell below 2,230, and the market expected an accelerated drop, but it instead made a V-shaped rebound, which was indeed unexpected.
Outlook: ETH was previously expected to reach up to 2,450, but now breaking through that level seems difficult. Overall, after a sharp drop and rebound, it is not advisable to chase trades blindly. For BTC, focus on the 80,000 level's hold or loss; for ETH, watch the 2,450 resistance. Waiting for confirmation of direction after consolidation is a safer approach. #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引 #SKHY 24 hours -9.55%, dropped from 141 to 126.28. The most notable is the 07:00 candle: 116,000 contracts dumped down to 120.31, only 40% of the 279,000 contracts dumped at 23:00, yet it pushed the low down another 2.4 points. Half the volume and a lower position indicate there are no buy orders below, not that the selling pressure is very fierce.
08:00 directly contradicted this: 64,000 contracts lifted the price to 126.96, fully absorbing the entire 07:00 bearish candle and surpassing the 06:00 high of 125.62. Spending 64,000 contracts to raise the price by 5.8 points, while 07:00 spent 116,000 contracts to only drop it 1.9 points—the lifting efficiency is five times that of the dumping, so this breakdown is false.
Current price 126.28, MA20 at 130.85 pressing down by 4.6 points, 24h high/low 140.82 / 120.31.
Conditions: If the 08:00 candle closes above 125.62, pull back to 125.0~125.5 to go long, stop loss at 122.90, first target 129.10 with only 1.6x reward-to-risk, insufficient; look at 130.48 for 2.2x.
If the 1H candle closes with volume back below 120.31, it indicates this rebound is a bull trap, long positions invalidated, revert to wait and see.
$SKHY
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)This round is only $4 million, which is not much in the crypto world, but the problem it aims to solve might be more important than tens of millions in funding.
Lombard Systems builds financing infrastructure for tokenized securities. The seed round was led by Ethereal Ventures, with participation from ALPS Capital, First Commit, Veris Ventures, and ATKA.
It maintains a standard called "Delivery versus Locking": allowing banks, brokers, and transfer agents to accept tokenized assets as collateral without the assets leaving the original securities account, still locked under the owner's name, while the lender obtains an enforceable secured interest evidenced by a crypto-signed credit certificate.
The biggest friction with tokenized securities has never been whether they can be issued. Issuance is no longer a problem; projects like $ONDO have been advancing the tokenization of government bonds on-chain. The bottleneck is the next step: holding a tokenized asset, then what? To borrow against it, you often have to sell it first or transfer it to an unfamiliar wallet for staking.
DvL fills this gap: the asset stays in the original account, the rights don't move, and the bank's compliant custody process doesn't have to be overhauled. The logic is the same for assets like $BTC and $ETH that already sit on institutional books: letting what already exists be put to use.
Standards are standards, adoption is adoption. With a $4 million seed round, the team is still clarifying the message. The real test is whether the first batch of banks will accept it into their systems.Friday, 11.06
BTC dipped to 75,200 early this morning before rebounding to around 76,100, ETH hit a low of 2,206 and has now returned to around 2,240. Initially, I wanted to observe whether this sharp drop could flush out profit-taking, but both coins failed to close above the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, and the rebound was not strong enough to repair the structure. Coupled with the inertia from last night's sharp decline in tech stocks, the market tested the bottom again in the morning session. I currently maintain a bearish outlook.
Short-term focus:
On the downside, first watch BTC's support strength at 75,200–75,550 and ETH's at 2,206–2,226. If the hourly candle body breaks below this range again and the rebound fails to recover it, the weakness will extend further downward. Conversely, if BTC recovers to 77,000–77,130 and ETH to 2,260–2,290 and holds steady, I will withdraw my short-term bearish view.
BTC falling to just above 70,000 can be considered a risk scenario for later, but it is not a conclusion for the current rebound wave. The premise is that it must first effectively break below this morning's low, then extend proportionally according to the previous drop from 81,200 to 75,200. Only then will the lower observation zone around 71,000–73,000 be entered. This is a technical estimate and does not constitute a definitive judgment on support levels.
ETH's decline and rebound rhythm this round are more intense. If the two coins' trends continue to diverge, I will prioritize watching whether ETH can first stabilize the newly tested low.
$BTC $ETH As Bitcoin recovers multiple key technical levels, the price has not only rebounded to the level where the average holder of Bitcoin spot ETF exchange-traded funds, representing compliant institutional capital inflows and outflows, begins to profit, but it has also surpassed the average holding cost of all Bitcoin holders, i.e., the True Market Mean (the estimated average purchase price of all on-chain Bitcoin), currently at $76,897. Bitcoin is currently trading in the $84,000 to $86,000 range, and the entire market has returned to a profitable state. This is crucial: historical experience shows that traders in a floating loss state will continue to close positions, thereby increasing selling pressure. In October 2025, Bitcoin broke below the realized cost of short-term holders (the average purchase cost of on-chain holdings), prompting us to take a bearish stance. Now that the entire market has returned above the average cost, FOMO is back, and traders are willing to increase leverage, which is only natural #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Avnet, a global leading electronic components distributor, announced preliminary results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, expecting sales between $11.1 billion and $11.4 billion, with earnings per share of $3.90 to $4.10. This guidance significantly exceeds general market expectations, reflecting strong demand and increasingly tight supply in the semiconductor supply chain. The company noted that supply constraints have led to higher average selling prices and improved profit margins, especially in its core distribution business. Avnet also emphasized strong performance in its Farnell division, which serves high-service, low-volume markets. Market Impact Analysis As a key indicator of the electronic supply chain, Avnet's optimistic guidance suggests that the semiconductor shortage is far from over. For the stock market, this news may boost sentiment among component distributors and chip manufacturers, as it implies sustained pricing power and healthy demand. Investors may turn to semiconductor stocks and related ETFs, but risks remain if supply constraints ease faster than expected. In the bond market, strong corporate guidance may reinforce expectations of corporate earnings resilience, potentially supporting credit spreads for technology issuers. However, if the guidance implies ongoing inflation in input costs, it could heighten concerns about margin pressures across the broader tech sector. For commodities, tight chip supply may maintain demand for certain metals used in semiconductor manufacturing, such as copper and rare earth elements, though direct impact may be limited. In currencies, a stronger outlook from Avnet, if reflecting robust U.S. industrial activity, could mildly support the dollar, but the effect is likely minimal. 🔤 Inscription Dictionary Day 12: Inscription Number
📖 In a nutshell: Each inscription's sequence number on the chain, arranged in mint order.
🔍 Key point: The smaller the number = the earlier the mint = usually more valuable, this is hard consensus.
The number is indeed hard currency, but many people only look at the number and ignore the project. I've seen trash projects in the top 100 numbers, and their floor price still dropped to zero. The number can only add value, it can't save you. It's like having a great license plate, but the car itself is a junker.
❓ When you buy inscriptions, do you look at the number? Or just the project?
$BTC $ETH $ORDI Elections are just a catalyst: BTC watches liquidity, ETH watches regulatory sentiment
Core logic remains unchanged: Midterm elections cannot alter the major crypto trend; they only disrupt short-term sentiment and regulatory rhythm.
BTC is the least sensitive to politics; its pricing power no longer depends on "who wins." ETF fund flows and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path are the real steering wheel. When election outcomes meet expectations, the market tends to "buy the rumor, sell the fact," dropping first then stabilizing.
ETH, on the other hand, is "highly sensitive to regulation." DeFi, staking, Layer 2, token classification—each aspect is exposed under SEC and CFTC regulations. If the new Congress delays the "Clarity Act" or tightens its stance, ETH volatility will be magnified, with declines usually exceeding BTC; if regulatory expectations ease, ETH's rebound elasticity will also be stronger.
Focus on three variables: whether the election results fully meet expectations—surprises are black swans; whether the new Congress can effectively advance crypto legislation—delaying short-term negatives and clarifying medium-term positives; and the Fed's future interest rate path—macro liquidity is the ultimate pricing anchor.
In short: BTC watches liquidity, ETH watches regulatory sentiment. Elections are just a catalyst, not the underlying logic. The pits dug by sentiment often become the next round of entry opportunities.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH Thursday's bearish candle completely wiped out the relief from Wednesday's post-election mood. The market isn't re-pricing a Democratic congressional win; it's re-pricing whether AI can continue burning money at the previous pace after the win. The S&P closed at 7353.73, down 4.36%, with a single-day drop matching the tariff shock in April last year. The Dow dropped 1833 points to 51523, down 3.44%. The Nasdaq fell 5.52% to 24315, officially entering a correction zone more than 10% below its October high. The Russell 2000 fell 4.45%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 12%, nearing its March 2020 record decline. The VIX jumped to 28.18, rising nearly 70% in one day. Chip stocks are the main driver. Nvidia fell 9.26%, Micron, AMD, and Marvell all around 17%, and SanDisk dropped over 20%. The tech sector overall declined about 7%, with all 11 S&P sectors in the red. The declines are not evenly spread but are spreading outward from the data center-related chain: storage, optical modules, compute leasing, power-related sectors are all getting hit. The real trade is about the speed of data center expansion. After the Democrats took both chambers, the market started pricing in stricter approvals, higher power costs, and slower capital expenditure pace. Wednesday's big bullish candle was "political uncertainty temporarily settled," while Thursday's candle is "specific policy risks after settlement starting to be priced in." The difference is significant. One is uncertainty removal; the other is new constraints being written into the model. This trading won't last just one day. Data #KORU 24 hours -33.8%, dropped from 10.19 to 6.75. The watershed is 7.00: At 04:00, a sell of 2.61 million tokens smashed the price from 7.37 to 6.48, breaking exactly the 7.00 platform from 02:00-03:00.
At 07:00, only 1.6 million tokens were used to pierce a new low of 6.09, with the selling volume decreasing all the way (6.84 million → 6.22 million → 1.6 million), but the lows got deeper with each drop: selling pressure did not increase, but buyers retreated first.
The rebound at 08:00 must also be acknowledged: 750,000 tokens lifted the price to 6.79, less than half of the 07:00 volume, swallowing the entire previous bearish candle. There were indeed buyers below, but they came in too early.
The current price 6.75 is stuck between 6.09 and 7.00, with MA20 at 8.06 pressing down by 1.3 units. A valid break and pullback is needed: a pullback to 6.90~7.00 but closing bearish on 1H with volume (≥700,000 tokens) signals shorting, stop loss at 7.25, first target 6.09 with odds 2.9, if broken then look at 5.70.
If it closes above 7.00 with volume (≥900,000 tokens), the short position is invalidated, return to wait-and-see, no reverse long positions — the 2.61 million tokens from 04:00 have not been digested yet.
$KORU
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)U.S. tech stocks collectively plunged, AI industry chain faced concentrated sell-off
U.S. stocks experienced a sharp correction, with the Nasdaq showing significant declines. The tech sector was the hardest hit, with AI, semiconductors, and storage all falling across the board, as the market saw large-scale profit-taking. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped sharply, led by storage chips. SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron, and Western Digital all plummeted simultaneously, continuing concerns about the peak of the storage cycle.
This round of sell-off is due to multiple negative factors converging. On one hand, the market is reassessing AI capital expenditures, worrying about a slowdown in data center procurement growth, which directly suppresses valuations across the entire AI industry chain including GPUs, storage, and optical modules. On the other hand, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, putting pressure on valuations of high-growth tech stocks. Additionally, after the midterm elections, the market began pricing in expectations of stricter data center regulations, further dampening sentiment in the AI infrastructure sector.
Large tech giants were not spared either, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the declines. AI stocks that had surged significantly earlier saw concentrated capital flight triggering a sell-off. The market has shifted from blindly buying AI to re-evaluating earnings delivery capabilities. Only companies that can consistently deliver better-than-expected earnings reports are likely to withstand this round of adjustments.
After short-term panic subsides, the sector will show clear differentiation. Key points to watch going forward are whether U.S. Treasury yields turn downward and whether storage chip prices and AI vendor orders can exceed expectations. Until the panic is fully cleared, the tech sector is likely to remain weak and volatile. $SNDK $SOXL #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 为什么AI监管分歧会对虚拟货币市场造成影响呢？这美国中期选举后的核心政治格局往往呈现两院分立或微弱多数的“跛脚政府”。但是在人工智能领域，这并未带来监管真空，而是引发了极其破坏性的“政策预期碎片化”：政策的失利从而导致了联邦统一立法的瘫痪倒逼行政部门以行政命令与个案执法强行干预， 但是各州（如加州、纽约州、得州）又出台相互冲突的属地法律。这种高阶政策不确定性，直接打破了资本对“万亿级AI资本开支”的贴现模型， 将波动率从单一科技股传导至全局流动性、高频微观结构与加密货币生态。 这也导致了对不同维度的交易员群体都将面临微观市场结构与风控框架的剧烈变革 1.首当其冲的是量化做市商与高频交易员：订单簿毒性及流动性抽离 逆向选择成本呈指数级上升：根据微观结构的经典理论 模型与 Kyle 模型做市商的利润依赖于散户等“非知情交易流”。然而，在国会闭门游说、议员听证会以及政策草案泄露等关键窗口期，政策内幕消息与突发新闻会引发高密度的“知情交易”。此时，做市商遭遇“有害订单流”冲击的概率将大幅攀升。 限价单簿深度崩塌与买卖价差扩大：为避免在毫秒级突发政策利"Order Book Observation: The Thicker the Buy Orders, the More You Should Beware of Sudden Wall Withdrawals"
$BTC: Order ratio about 67:33, with tens of millions of dollars in buy orders stacked near 75000, looking like a strong support but may just be a temporary setup. After a deep V-shaped rebound, large orders are pressed below, which can mislead retail investors into thinking "it won't fall further," but orders can be withdrawn at any time, and it's not uncommon to see a sudden dump after withdrawal.
$ETH: Order ratio even more extreme at 71:29, with over five million buy orders near 2311. Usually falls quickly, but now appears particularly resilient. There is significant overhead trapped positions; such extreme support orders are more likely a bull trap rather than genuine support.
$SOL: 50:50 stalemate between bulls and bears, with buy orders near 92.6 but weak rebound, showing clear capital divergence. If the market stirs, it may be the first to dive.
Conclusion: Order book buy orders can be withdrawn and are a deceptive tactic; what you see may not be real. Liquidity worsens near evening, so don't be fooled by tens of millions in buy orders to chase highs. Whether it's genuine support or a trap will be clear from tonight's order withdrawals and dumps. In terms of trading, watch more and act less; don't get emotional. This is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice.BTC/ETH/SOL Morning Observation: Long Positions Washed Out, Defense Lines Under Full Pressure
📉 Bitcoin: $873 million liquidated across the network in the past 4 hours, with longs accounting for $793 million; BTC dropped to $76,277, down 4.61% in 24 hours. If it falls below $75,000, the liquidation intensity of longs below is about $550 million; if it rebounds above $80,000, short liquidations above are about $1.45 billion. Strategy: Defend longs to kill longs, $75,000 is the short-term defense line.
⚠️ Ethereum: About $160 million liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 81% in the last 4 hours. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance ETH/USDT, about $10.94 million. Price dipped to $2,247, down 5.88% in 4 hours. A whale's $214 million long liquidation price was suppressed to $2,178-$2,182, only about 6% from the current price. Strategy: $2,180 is the last defense line for bulls; losing it will trigger chain liquidations.
🔻 Solana: SOL dropped to around $95, down over 8% in 24 hours, with long liquidations exceeding $6 million. About $60 million long liquidations below are pending trigger, while short liquidations above are only $16 million. Strategy: The liquidation volume below is nearly 4 times that above; the crowded long structure is the most fragile, rebound is not the bottom.
🧭 Commonality of the Three: Long liquidations dominate absolutely; rebounds are driven by short covering rather than new long entries. Managing positions is more important than guessing direction. Real-time liquidation maps and whale movements are continuously tracked by me on OK Orbit. Not investment advice.Don't mistake the rebound for a reversal: Bitcoin returns to 80,000, more like a short squeeze pulse
$BTC surged about 4% in the short term, climbing from 78,300 to 80,000; $ETH was even stronger, jumping from 2,226 to 2,450, an increase of nearly 7%.
This wave mainly relies on two points: first, the US midterm election results were finalized, with the Democrats taking both chambers, removing market uncertainty. The Nasdaq opened up about 2%, risk appetite rose, and some funds flowed back into crypto; second, short positions near 80,000 were heavily liquidated, and the short squeeze accelerated the upward move.
But the key point not to overlook: spot ETFs still saw net outflows for three consecutive days as of November 3, totaling about 1.16 billion. In other words, core incremental funds have not arrived; this is not a rise driven by long-term spot buying.
Essentially, it is a brief release of pent-up sentiment combined with short stop-losses. The bullish candle looks strong, but its sustainability remains questionable; short squeezes often come quickly and tend to cool down rapidly after stop-losses are absorbed. Don't chase the pulse as a trend.
⚠️ Personal market record only, not trading advice Core Trader 14 (0x24fb65…bed0f) opened a long position on $ETH with 15x leverage, holding 255 tokens, with a notional value of approximately $569,300. The outcome is not yet known; I am more interested in dissecting its risk rules rather than treating a large position opening as a buy signal.
If this were to be written as a strategy: if you want to open a 15x long, first set a single-trade loss budget and exit conditions, then reverse-calculate the position size; if any condition is not set, do not open the position. 🤖 I think managing losses is more reliable than guessing direction: leverage amplifies the impact of price fluctuations on margin; calculating position size based on loss budget also prevents buying more just because you are optimistic.
But this rule has loopholes: stop-loss does not guarantee execution at the preset price, and exit conditions that are too tight may be triggered by short-term volatility. Since the material does not provide his margin mode and stop-loss setup, I won’t complete the strategy for him, just reminding myself not to treat others’ position sizes as certainties.When "10x leverage" stacks with "3x ETF," a devastating wealth grinder officially roars! Brother Ba Bai's words, "I owe my family the most, lost 40 million in the crypto circle," paired with a real trading screenshot showing SOXL's single-day loss of 34% and 140,000 U vaporized, directly tear off the veil from how many retail investors' high-leverage frenzy?
This is not a single market pullback but a systemic slaughter. The semiconductor index plummets, hawkish macro expectations rise, and high-valuation tech stocks face indiscriminate sell-offs. Using 10x contracts to bet on 3x leveraged ETFs in extreme one-sided markets is tantamount to directly triggering a self-destruct sequence.
Strategy and direction:
1. Quit leverage stacking: Never use derivatives to trade ETFs that already carry leverage; in a liquidity crisis, you won't even get a chance to stop loss.
2. Control your hands, wait for the right side: Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and AI regulatory implementation signals. Before panic subsides and volume bottoms out, cash is the perfect position.
3. Strictly adhere to trading discipline: Both single trade stop loss and total position allocation are indispensable. Respect the market; don't let the stubbornness of "If it drops to zero, it’s none of my business" turn into the tragedy of "Sorry, family." Staying alive is more important than anything. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 #ETH Last night at 23:00, a single trade of 14.91 million contracts (2.8 times the previous 5.3 million) cut the price from 2343.20 down to 2234.07. In the following nine hours, another 14.9 million contracts were burned, but the price only moved from 2251.04 to 2240.68 — the money was spent, but the position didn’t budge an inch; this is a lock, not a recovery.
At 07:00, a single trade of 2.18 million contracts simultaneously hit a 24h new low of 2204.98 and closed at 2237.00, with a lower shadow of 32 points. Someone bought at the lowest point, but the volume was thin: only one-seventh of the volume of the sell-off trade.
Current price is 2240.68, down 7.65% in 24h, with MA20 at 2326.5, 86 points overhead. The range is 2204.98~2285.50, 80 points wide; the current price is stuck in the middle, with neither side triggered.
If it closes above 2285.50 with volume ≥4 million contracts, pull back to 2278 to go long, stop loss at 2262, first target 2343 with only 1.7x reward, not enough; look at 2387 for 3.0x.
If it closes below 2204.98 with volume ≥2.5 million contracts, rebound to 2212 to go short, stop loss at 2240, target 2150, reward ratio 2.2.
No action if it stays in the middle; do not chase the first breakout.
$ETH
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk) Yesterday, gold climbed to 4146 before starting to pull back, gradually declining. It is currently testing the previous low, and our long positions have already gained profits.
Gold on the four-hour chart has fallen back to a key support level. Why do we say this? Because 4089 was a support level previously, and any pullback to this level was met with a rebound. The MACD here has formed a golden cross, and the Bollinger Bands are also opening upwards. After bottoming at 3879, the price rebounded and formed a clear uptrend. Currently, the price is also in the dense trading zone around the previous 4080 level, oscillating at a high level. Going forward, keep a close eye on 4080; if it breaks, look for support at 4020. If these two levels hold, follow the trend and go long.
Buy on gold pullback at 4080-4075, target 4100, and if it breaks through, look to 4130 $BTC $XAU $XAUT $BTC's big bearish 4-hour candle last night wiped out the gains and even smashed to a new low, trapping those who chased the rally!
So we can't immediately turn bullish here. The next buy spot for spot is around 73000. Currently, it's just panic, not extreme fear. Buying near the 3-day KRSI around 10 is the safest!
Mid-month is also approaching, a point I've mentioned many times. It's also the expected reversal time according to the 3-day KMACD. We just need to watch for the MACD golden cross timing!Solana Labs' new company Leap has launched a mobile trading app of the same name, opening early access; it plans to use a portion of each transaction fee to buy back and burn $SOL after fees go live.
📌 What I value more is that it includes deposit, withdrawal, and transaction fees in the profit and loss display. A key point for newcomers: the price returning to the entry price does not mean breaking even; costs still need to be covered. The buyback is a potential positive, but its impact depends on fee income and buyback ratio, so don't treat the "plan" as an immediate buy order. I will first observe the actual implementation.I've always been puzzled: when the coin drops, shouldn't the short sellers be happy? This time it's the opposite.
$BTC is now hovering below $75,000. It sounds like a win for the bears, but on the options side, shorts have $430 million settling this Friday at 4 PM, which is a lot of pressure.
The reason is quite counterintuitive: above $75,000, there are $278 million worth of put options stacked, and the sellers lose more as the price drops. When collecting money, they call themselves market makers; when losing money, they bear it themselves.
What's even stranger is that almost no one is buying call options at or below $75,000, meaning no one dares to bet on a rebound in this range. So the most awkward position right now is actually the shorts—they lose when it falls, and only get relief if it rises back up.Amundi (Europe's largest asset manager, approximately €2.6 trillion AUM as of 2026-09-30) announced on November 5: its flagship European equity index fund, Amundi Core STOXX Europe 600, has added a tokenized share class, now issued on the public Ethereum blockchain. Custody and tokenization infrastructure are provided by CACEIS; this share class remains embedded within the original fund operating model, and traditional channels can still purchase it as usual. This marks a clear step in advancing tokenization from money market funds (previously launched with CACEIS on Ethereum) to broad-based index investing. The fund tracks the STOXX Europe 600 (covering about 600 large, mid, and small-cap companies across developed Europe). Amundi stated it will gradually expand its tokenized fund product line to serve institutional clients and digital platforms, emphasizing automation, accessibility, settlement speed, and transparency—but did not disclose quantitative improvements in fees or performance. Builders may focus on three points: ① Whether public chain settlement rails truly shorten institutional settlement cycles; ② How the EU DLT pilot and distribution compliance constrain transfers; ③ RWA.xyz shows tokenized equities at about $4.24 billion as of November 4, with nearly +27% growth in the past 30 days, but leading products still skew toward U.S. assets—the signal significance of European broad-based entry outweighs short-term volume. English: Amundi (Europe's largest AM, ~€2.6tn AUM) launched a toOn the same day, BlackRock's IBIT saw a net outflow of $201.2 million, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $236.7 million, with the two funds pushing in opposite directions.
In total, the spot Bitcoin ETFs only had a net inflow of $74.6 million, which doesn't even cover the $1.16 billion withdrawn in the previous three days. Some call this a capital return, but I think it's more like big players moving assets between the two funds, with almost no increase in total volume.
The price can jump first due to short squeeze liquidations, but whether the spot orders can keep up is another matter. Do you think these "one out, one in" days look more like institutions changing seats, or more like no one is willing to add positions anymore? U.S. stocks wiped out overnight! Nasdaq plunges 5.5%, $3 trillion evaporates: Is the Democratic Party really going to sentence AI to death?
A political storm is shaking Wall Street. The AI myth has taken a heavy hit, with Nvidia and AMD plunging together. This time, the market turmoil is likely more than just a simple correction.
If you believe artificial intelligence is the most certain investment theme for the next decade, then the U.S. stock market on November 5 may have given all investors a very costly lesson.
On November 5, Eastern Time, the U.S. stock market experienced a severe sell-off. Tech stocks were the hardest hit, with the AI industry chain taking the brunt.
This was not an ordinary market adjustment.
The Nasdaq index plunged about 5.52% in a single day, the S&P 500 dropped about 4.36%, and the Dow Jones fell about 3.44%. The Nasdaq recorded its largest single-day drop in nearly 19 months, and the S&P 500 lost about $3 trillion in market value in one day.
Even more noteworthy, the semiconductor sector faced a fierce sell-off, with some AI industry chain stocks dropping double digits.
Wall Street suddenly started to get scared.
Behind this panic is a key trigger: the expansion of Democratic Party power after the U.S. midterm elections and market concerns about future AI regulatory policies.
So, the question arises:
Is the U.S. Democratic Party really going to ban AI development? If the era of AI regulation arrives early, what will Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and the entire tech industry face?
1. Black Thursday: U.S. tech stocks face a severe sell-off
Let's look at market performance.
On November 5, major U.S. indices showed significant declines:
Index Single-day decline
Nasdaq -5.52%
S&P 500 -4.36%
Dow Jones -3.44%
Regarding individual stocks, tech giants and the AI industry chain were almost all hit.
$NVDA: down about 9.3%.
$AMD: down about 17.3%.
$SNDK: down about 22%.
$TSLA: down about 9%.
Semiconductor index: down over 12%.
This data sends a very clear signal:
The market is repricing the AI industry chain.
In the past two years, as long as a company was related to AI, the capital market was willing to assign a higher valuation.
Nvidia became a star in the global capital market due to AI chip demand, and data centers, servers, power equipment, and cloud computing companies also received huge valuation premiums.
But now, investors are raising a very realistic question:
If future AI infrastructure construction slows down, how much profit can the data centers built with hundreds of billions of dollars today still generate?
This is the real warning behind this plunge.
2. Democratic Party victory: Why did AI stocks panic collectively?
An important catalyst for this market plunge comes from changes in the U.S. political landscape.
In the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the Democratic Party made significant gains, altering the balance of power in Congress.
The market fears the Democratic Party will push for stricter AI regulatory policies in the future.
It should be clarified: the Democratic Party has not officially announced a total ban on AI, nor has the U.S. government decided to stop AI research.
What really triggered market concerns is that some Democratic lawmakers have proposed stricter AI regulatory measures, including:
1. Strengthening independent testing and regulation of advanced AI systems.
2. Restricting the uncontrolled development of superintelligent AI; some lawmakers even proposed pausing related advanced AI research.
3. Enhancing scrutiny of large data center construction.
4. Preventing data center expansion from causing higher electricity costs for ordinary residents.
5. Implementing stricter supervision of AI companies' data security, social impact, and potential risks.
These policies may seem unrelated to ordinary investors.
But the problem is, today's AI industry is no longer just a software sector.
Behind it lies a massive capital chain:
AI models require computing power, computing power requires chips, chips require data centers, data centers require electricity, cooling equipment, land, and huge infrastructure investments.
Any policy restriction on any link could affect the expected returns of the entire industry chain.
For example, if data center construction approvals become stricter, server demand may be affected; if electricity costs rise, data center operating profits may be squeezed.
The market is not worried that AI will suddenly disappear, but that the commercialization speed of AI may not be as fast as investors imagine.
3. The real danger: AI may not lack a future, but its valuation is too high
This is what I think is the most noteworthy aspect of this market adjustment.
In the past, the market's pricing logic for AI was very simple:
AI demand growth → data center expansion → chip demand increase → corporate profit growth → stock valuation rise.
This logic indeed drove a significant rise in tech stocks recently.
However, as more companies invest huge sums in building AI infrastructure, another question emerges:
When will the invested funds truly convert into profits?
Building data centers requires capital, buying GPUs requires capital, maintaining servers requires capital, and paying electricity costs also requires capital.
If companies keep increasing capital expenditures but AI business revenue growth cannot keep pace, the market will reassess these companies' investment returns.
This means the AI industry may still be in a long-term growth phase, but related stocks may not maintain their previous high valuations.
Investors must distinguish two concepts:
The development prospects of AI technology and the current investment value of AI stocks are not the same.
An industry can have a very bright future, but if stock prices have already priced in growth for the next decade, short-term sharp adjustments may still occur.
This is also why, even if the AI industry does not experience a technical collapse, the capital market may still undergo large-scale sell-offs.