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#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ How to bet on December rate hikes after the US stock market plunge before the Nonfarm Payrolls announcement tonight?
On the eve of Nonfarm Payrolls, US stocks plunged sharply. How to bet on December rate hikes?
With the Nonfarm Payrolls announcement tonight and the US stock market plunging, should the market's bets on December rate hikes be recalculated? The US will release the Nonfarm Employment Report at 9:30 PM Beijing time. The market expects about 60,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate forecast unchanged.
On November 5, US stocks fell sharply, and risk appetite was under pressure. Meanwhile, ADP employment, ISM service employment, and initial jobless claims have recently improved, leading to a reassessment of rate hike expectations and the future interest rate path. The Nonfarm data may further impact the Federal Reserve's rate expectations and the trends of US Treasuries and the dollar. In the crypto space, BTC is most directly affected by liquidity expectations, while ETH and SOL generally follow the overall market, so let's watch these three.
Before the Nonfarm data release, $BTC is down 5.7% in 24h, $ETH down 7.9%, with ETH falling more than BTC.
$SOL is down 6.3% in 24h, also falling, with all three coins moving in the same direction. Whether these declines are related to the US stock market plunge, tonight's Nonfarm data, or rate hike expectations, I won't draw that conclusion.
When the Nonfarm numbers come out, should we first look at the less fallen BTC or the more fallen ETH? Dogecoin (DOGE) Whale (Whale) Classification Criteria (Market General Standard) - 🐬 Dolphin: 1 million~10 million DOGE - 🦈 Shark: 10 million~100 million DOGE - 🐳 Whale: ≥ 100 million DOGE (can clearly drive market trends) - 🦑 Super Whale: ≥ 1 billion DOGE (institutional/exchange level) Quantity and Token Situation According to Santiment: There are about 140 wallets holding 100 million DOGE ≥, and these addresses collectively hold over 108 billion DOGE, with token concentration far higher than BTC and ETH. Key pitfall: The top spot on the rich list isn't a big player, but Robinhood's custodial cold wallet (about 27.2 billion DOGE, about 17.5% of circulating supply), which contains hundreds of thousands of retail investors' tokens, not just one person's; Second place is Upbit, third is Binance, both are exchange custody wallets, which are user asset custodians, not private whales. The legendary super address that once held nearly 30% DOGE was split at the end of 2021 and is no longer a single whale. Features (compared to BTC/ETH whales) 1. DOGE is a meme coin with thinner liquidity. A truly private whale makes a large transfer or dumping the market, causing much more volatility than BTC or ETH, which easily triggers crash sentiment and triggers chain liquidations. 2. Highly concentrated chips: the top 10 addresses together account for the circulating marketTo start with a reality check, opening a large long position does not mean the bulls have the answer. Core Trader 14 just opened a long on $HYPE with 10x leverage, holding 1,666 tokens, with a nominal value of about $129,200. What I see is a bet that amplifies directional risk, not a market consensus on this direction, so I won't change my cautious stance for now.
I'm not rushing to get excited for two reasons. One, a position size only shows this address's willingness to take risk; it doesn't reveal if there are other hedges. Treating a partial long as a fully bullish stance can lead to misjudgment. Two, 10x leverage compresses the room to wait: roughly, a 1% adverse price move corresponds to about a 10% loss of initial margin, excluding fees. If the price oscillates without moving up, the most stressed party is the leveraged long needing quick direction confirmation, not the onlookers.
Of course, they might be right. My bearish bias doesn't mean I have to oppose this trade. If the price can sustain above the reference price of $77.5542 and rebound after a pullback, I'll reduce my doubts about this long. But for now, there's only the opening action, no outcome yet. What I'll watch next is whether the price allows the position holder some margin for error, not how heavy the wallet's entry was. The odds for the crypto prediction question jumped from an underdog to a favorite. I'll first check the news instead of rushing to think the matter is settled. Is there really new progress in the project, or is the market too thin, allowing a small amount of funds to push the odds? Odds can reflect how the money thinks, but that doesn't mean the event has already happened. Unlike buying coins, here you also have to consider the deadline and the judgment conditions. I'm especially eager to check that transaction record—how did the price move before the news even came out?A net outflow of about $11 million brought me back to the familiar atmosphere of the previous cycle: when a new entry appears in a sector, people tend to hear "easier participation" as "there will be continuous capital inflow." This time, according to Farside Investors data, the US ZEC spot ETF recorded this net outflow on November 5 Eastern Time.
But this time it's different from before; what we have in front of us is the ETF channel's subscription and redemption data, not just the community buzz. What I care more about is: ETFs can lower the participation threshold, but they won't eliminate the cycle of a sector. The entry is improved, but capital can still flow out; the existence of a product and stable demand are two different things.
My judgment is that this serves as a reminder to the narrative of "long-term capital support with ETFs," but it is not enough to declare a bearish outlook for the entire privacy sector. If ETFs are regarded as an anti-cycle moat, then once redemptions occur, the previously elevated expectations are prone to amplify disappointment. This is my speculation, not something proven by just one day's data.
Having gone through the last cycle, I am now more willing to separate channel maturity from demand maturity. What I want to observe next is whether privacy demand can present more solid usage reasons beyond ETFs, rather than just matching a capital flow chart with the script of the entire market cycle. I've been wondering why my orders on the exchange always get cut in line by others, and today I saw a number from Hyperliquid that suddenly gave me the answer.
Its priority fees collected in one day reached $510,000, a historical high, accounting for 12.7% of total revenue, also a record high.
In plain language: someone is willing to pay more just to get ahead of me. It's not about offering a higher price than me, but being faster.
So the previous calmness of "limit orders will eventually be filled" might have been wishful thinking on my part. On the $HYPE chain, speed is now openly priced, while I was still calculating that I saved a few cents on fees.On November 6th, $ETH bulls outnumbered bears by 2.6 times, but it dropped 8.1% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 2206, with a 1-hour RSI of only 28, showing short-term weakness.
Smart money is more interesting: large net outflows of $150 million, with sell orders accounting for 56%, indicating real capital outflows. However, on the other side, smart money buying accounts for 53.4%, large accounts hold 79.8% long positions, top traders hold 68.2% long positions, with a long-short ratio of 2.15. In other words, while large orders are selling, someone is absorbing them. But smart money's long positions only account for 21.2%, indicating most are lightly positioned to bet on a rebound, not heavily invested.
Regarding contracts, open interest is $5.19 billion, down slightly by 1.9% in 24 hours, with liquidations of $14.98 million; funding rate is +0.0076%, settled every 8 hours, meaning longs are still paying shorts.
Spot ETFs also failed to provide support: the latest trading day saw net outflows of $140 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $137 million, and Fidelity's FETH outflowing $3.33 million.
In summary: prices are falling, institutions are withdrawing, and large holders are absorbing. In such a divergent market, observe clearly before acting.
Recommendation is to short, focusing on chasing shorts. If a rebound opportunity arises, short even more, as there is heavy resistance around 2290. My first reaction to this kind of news is to discount the expectation that "funding will continue to relay." Attractive odds do not equal a positive expected value, especially when the judgment depends on new funds materializing.
According to SoSoValue data, on November 5th Eastern US time, the US ZEC and NEAR spot ETFs had net outflows of $10,994,100 and $773,800 respectively, totaling $11,767,900. The historical cumulative net inflow of the ZEC spot ETF still stands at $207 million. I think this is bearish for the expectation of funding relay, but it is not evidence of a trend reversal.
The reason is that net outflows weaken the funding support on that day, but one day's data is insufficient to overturn the cumulative inflows. If there are continuous outflows afterward, I will raise my alert for a weakening demand scenario; if inflows quickly resume, this fluctuation is more worthy of reevaluation. For me, it is worth spending effort to verify sustainability, but not worth drawing long-term conclusions based on single-day data. An unremarkable number: Hyperliquid's priority fee single-day revenue reached $510,000, a historical high.
Let's break down what it is. The priority fee is neither a transaction fee nor a liquidation penalty; it is the extra amount users pay to have their orders prioritized on-chain. The only explanation for its increase is that someone is in a hurry to execute trades, willing to pay an additional premium beyond the original price. So this number is more like a congestion indicator than a revenue metric.
The second number is even more worth watching: the priority fee accounts for 12.7% of Hyperliquid's total revenue, also a record high. Nearly one-eighth of the protocol's wallet income now comes from "time grabbing" itself. While increased trading volume can push up transaction fees, it cannot drive this ratio; the ratio rising together indicates that on-chain trades are crowding each other rather than exchanging smoothly.
Thinking one layer deeper. What $HYPE actually sells is not depth but millisecond-level order sequencing. Most perpetual venues compete on rates and order book depth, competing on who is cheaper; Hyperliquid adds a fee channel — the queue position. The fact that position can be sold at a record high price shows that active capital is not lacking, but the channel is.
My judgment is neutral to slightly bullish, but this is not a signal of price increase. The priority fee is essentially a friction cost; when it rises to a certain level, it will squeeze out ordinary users who are not sensitive to speed, leaving only market makers and high-frequency traders. At that point, revenue remains, but the ecosystem's breadth narrows. Venues propped up by order sniping will sooner or later have to answer: when speed is no longer scarce, what do you sell?Set the trading framework before the non-farm payrolls. This is the last key trigger before the December rate decision, with CME showing nearly a 79% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December. If employment data is stronger again, expectations will be completely locked in. The transmission chain is straightforward: strong data → US Treasury yields surge → risk assets come under pressure first.
BTC is most sensitive to interest rates, with selling pressure already accumulated around 80,000. If non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, it will likely retest the 76,000 area, so don't rush to buy.
ETH has greater elasticity; when rate hike expectations heat up, its decline is usually deeper, but ETF accumulation provides support, with 2300 as the short-term defense level.
Privacy coins like ZEC have thin liquidity and high leverage, making their volatility the most severe under macro shocks. It's not advisable to chase highs on non-farm payroll night; wait for the data to settle before making decisions.
Attitude: proactively control positions before non-farm payrolls, accept strong data by selling rather than holding hard, and wait for a rebound confirmation if data is weak. Actually, by looking at the content of the Democratic Party's foreign political propaganda framework,
one can understand why some lawmakers have made such "extremely sharp" remarks about AI infrastructure.
It's not for anything else, but for elections. Although the midterm elections are over, the new Congress will not take office until January 3, 2027.
Before that, it is still a transitional period of midterm election powers. Democratic lawmakers will not lack such remarks to consolidate support.
Don't underestimate the Democratic Party's "democratic will," otherwise they wouldn't have created over a hundred genders during their governance 😂😂😂 #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #IREN矿企转型AI云服务, GPU delivery progress to be revealed. The reason delivery delays do not shake the foundation of the transformation is that there is already sufficient buffer on the funding side. Over the past eight months, IREN has secured $9.3 billion in funds (customer prepayments, convertible bonds, GPU leasing, and financing), enough to cover approximately $3.5 billion in incremental capital expenditures for H2 2026. Among them, about 96% of the GPU capital expenditure under the Microsoft contract is covered by customer prepayments and GPU financing, and the prepayment ratio for newly signed five-year contracts after the quarter is as high as 90%—this means that the capital consumption of IREN's expansion is largely borne in advance by customers and financiers, rather than relying entirely on its own cash flow or equity dilution.Last night, watching the market into the latter half, my heart skipped a beat. That feeling wasn’t panic, but more like seeing the tide quietly recede a bit. Has the political wind really started to price meme coins? WLFI dropped nearly 10% yesterday, with a pitifully thin order book, almost no decent support visible, and a very steep downward slope. TRUMP was even more extreme, with a single-day drawdown of about 20%, and the rebound strength visibly weak to the naked eye; even large addresses are adding short positions. The trigger point isn’t on-chain but in Washington: House Oversight Committee Chair Garcia is expected to take office in January next year and has already warned the related families to "find lawyers first"; Warren, who is very likely to control the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly labeled WLFI’s trading as outright corruption. What the market is actually trading on isn’t a single piece of news but the expectation that "political protection may expire." What’s more troublesome is that the fundamental narrative is also not clean. The UAE once bought WLFI shares for $500 million, and the timing of the fund flow is too close to the subsequent US approval of advanced AI chip exports; statistics also show that the related families have made astonishing cumulative profits from tokens like TRUMP and WLFI. These details themselves don’t constitute a conviction but are enough to make holders start reassessing how much the "celebrity endorsement premium" is really worth. The transmission path, as I see it, is this: first kill the most fragile narrative end, which is the meme sector purely supported by attention; after sentiment cools, short-term risk appetite contracts, and funds prefer to stay in assets with large market caps and high consensus When I look at memes, I always want to casually check out the pools. The community is lively, and some say on-chain funds have returned. But thinking about it the other way, could it just be old money moving from other small projects? The trading volume can look impressive, but the actual money in the pool to take sell orders might not be that much. I don't dislike memes, but seeing a screen full of emojis with no one discussing the pool depth feels a bit off. I get the memes, but who’s going to take the sell orders when it’s time to sell?This is exactly the trend I warned about earlier.
Although the S&P 500 has hit a record high, the support from macro fundamentals has actually started to weaken.
In the past 17 U.S. midterm election years, a pattern has been repeatedly confirmed:
Every rebound before reaching the 200-day moving average (200 EMA) ultimately ended in a pullback.
A rebound does not mean a trend reversal, and the same goes for $BTC.
I have over 15 years of market trading experience, so this is worth continued attention.A broad passive sell-off, not one broken sector — Nasdaq -5.1%, S&P -3%, $MU -17%, $SNDK -18%. When funds urgently need cash, the easiest assets to sell are the most liquid ones — that is why $BTC fell with stocks. The AI story didn't die (AMD beat, SMCI $19.9B in a quarter), but Iran war, oil, inflation and a changed Fed outlook moved the macro. $75,000 support, $77,770 then $80,000 resistance. Passive selling or real panic? Comment 👇 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trending #OKXOrbitOrder Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for both tokens, slippage for both buying and selling increased significantly, with the highest simulated slippage for $UVXY at the 100,000 scale.
$UVXY simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.22%/0.17%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.86%/0.74%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in cost on both buy and sell sides indicates overall shallow depth.
$SNXX simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.08%/0.08%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.34%/0.36%. Both sides becoming more expensive suggests initial volume reduction or order splitting.This morning CoinGecko ranked #5 in hot searches, $HYPE had about $1.41 billion in 24h trading volume across the network, with a market cap of about $18.6 billion, ranking 11th. OKX spot price is currently about 77.8, down roughly 8% from the 24h open at 84.5, with a daily range of 76.3–84.6 (data as of approximately 10:10 Beijing time).
Today coincides with the unlocking node: the public schedule states nearly 10 million tokens, but the team says only about 180,000 tokens are actually distributed to core contributors. The day before, platform priority fees hit a record of about $521,000; additionally, a Hyperliquid Strategies subsidiary submitted an FCM registration intent, aiming to offer perpetual contracts to US users. While the overall market is dropping, HYPE's traffic hasn't declined, and the actual unlocking volume and compliance narrative will continue to be closely watched. $HYPE$AAOI delivered a strong Q3, recording $269.9 million in revenue and returning to GAAP profitability.
Its Q4 revenue forecast of $385–$420 million also points to strong growth expectations.
Demand for 800G and 1.6T optical products remains a major opportunity, but the sharp post earnings sell off makes me cautious.
My prediction is NO because strong business performance doesn't always translate into an immediate stock price gain.
#AAOIQ3800GOutlook Every time the US stock market crashes sharply, even plummets, it eventually recovers and reaches new highs. However, as investors, can we accept the preparation for a long-term battle? A few months of decline really isn't much.
If we encounter something like the 2000 internet bubble, with continuous steep drops for three years, cutting the value in half, would we still have the confidence to keep buying and holding? Probably not, because at that time, negative news would be everywhere, and countless people would be forced to cut losses and exit.
The financial market is that ruthless. Right now, I am mentally prepared for a long-term battle. I am very patient. I don't trade US stocks, but US stocks are the parent of Bitcoin; if US stocks perform poorly, Bitcoin will also suffer.
If US stocks continue to fall, Bitcoin will most likely follow. I will buy Bitcoin below 60,000 and definitely will not try to catch the bottom with everyone else at 75,000. If it doesn't drop below 60,000, then I will keep waiting. Low prices represent higher probability, better risk-reward ratio, and odds, meaning sufficient margin of safety. If you want to know why this round of sell-off is so fierce, save this first!
Nasdaq: -5.1%
S&P 500: -3%
$MU: -17%
$SNDK: -18%
This looks more like a broad-based passive sell-off rather than a problem in a single sector.
From financial stocks to AI infrastructure, almost all assets are falling.
Even high-quality companies like $MU, $AMZN, and $NVDA have been hit hard because when funds urgently need cash, the easiest assets to sell are often the most liquid ones.
But the fundamentals of AI have not disappeared because of this:
AMD’s earnings guidance exceeded market expectations.
SMCI’s single-quarter revenue reached $19.9 billion.
$MU and $SNDK reportedly have their production capacity booked for the next several years, with contracts including margin guarantees.
The real issue is the macro environment: the Iran war is pushing up oil prices, inflation is under renewed pressure, and market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have changed.
My view is: short-term charts may look bad, but that doesn’t mean the AI industry logic has ended.Pal $BTC Market Morning Report -11.6 Today there is quite a lot of text; if you don't want to read, just skip to the conclusion at the end. If you want to follow along with the analysis, please be patient. 1. K-line Chart 1) Daily Chart Situation (Figure 1) 1) Here we go again, drawing a good gate. Currently, the market is completely controlled by emotions and news. On Wednesday, the market believed that a Democratic victory could check Trump, so it rose, but on Thursday, due to a Democratic super AI ban, market fear intensified directly. This is somewhat like in ancient times when someone claimed to have 1 million troops after leading 10,000, causing the enemy to abandon the city immediately. However, for us, the decline is a buying opportunity at the bottom, not a reason to distrust. Because after a single-day plunge of 5%, it is often followed by short covering or an oversold rebound (for example, the top 20 largest single-day gains in history almost always closely follow the top 20 largest single-day losses). Two consecutive trading days with drops over 5% each day is an extremely rare black swan event, which has only happened twice in history. (I will write a dedicated article at noon.) 2) From the K-line perspective, this is maintaining the 75-81 range I mentioned, just that this oscillation is very unpleasant. Actually, BTC is still relatively strong compared to the US stock market; it just gave back Wednesday's gains. Currently, 81-82 is a short-term important resistance level. Below that, 749 is waiting to be plundered. Then look at positions around 732 and 71, or more accurately, the current bottom is around 70-75. Unless the US stock market continues with black swan events, dropping 5% consecutively.Today, the $3.5 trillion sell-off is facing two major obstacles behind AI suppression concerns: January and Trump's veto power.
The U.S. stock market lost over $3,500,000,000,000 today, with the Nasdaq 100 index recording its worst day since March 2020.
According to Reuters, chip manufacturers plummeted due to fears of stricter AI regulations after the Democrats took control of Congress.
The biggest decliners today include:
Nasdaq 100: −6.4%
S&P 500: −4.4%
Dow Jones: −3.4%
Chip Index: −12.3%
The cryptocurrency market lost nearly $200 billion, with liquidations exceeding $1 billion.
All three Trump family tokens hit historic lows, and the VIX fear index surged 63%.
But the Democrats' AI plan cannot advance yet:
- The Democrats will only control Congress after the new members are sworn in on January 3.
- Even then, Trump can veto any bill they pass.
- Overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, far exceeding the majority seats won by the Democrats.
AI concerns are not the only pressure: according to Reuters, Federal Reserve officials also hinted at further interest rate hikes.NU7 upgrade countdown. $ZEC worth $160 million in the Sprout pool, after today, even private keys won't save it.
The Zcash NU7 upgrade activates today (November 6) at 10:30 AM Beijing time, at block height 3,543,405. Block time is compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling the speed. But the cost is that an old path is completely cut off: version 4 transaction format is disabled, and this was the only way to spend tokens in the Sprout pool.
Before the upgrade, there are about 12,226 ZEC in the Sprout pool, valued at approximately $16 million at $1300 each. Once the upgrade activates, even with valid private keys, these coins will be unusable. ZIP 2003 leaves a "possible future recovery" option, but it clearly states: it may never be re-enabled.
ZEC rose 6% today, breaking through 1300. But NU7 is not a bullish event landing; it is a hard reset of chip structure. The frozen $16 million is unrelated to circulating supply, but it changes who dares to hold ZEC overnight after the upgrade.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ Circle's revenue exceeded expectations, but USDC circulation is shrinking. Seeing on-chain transaction volume up 49% while the seven-day circulation decreased by about 800 million looks a bit contradictory.
There's no issue with the transaction volume. A 49% growth rate indicates that USDC is indeed being frequently used in settlement and exchange scenarios, and Circle's fees come from this volume, which aligns with the revenue exceeding expectations.
Circulation is moving in the opposite direction. The seven-day decrease of about 800 million, despite such a large increase in volume, hasn't pulled the issuance side back, indicating that most of the on-chain money is turnover of existing stock, with little new money coming in. Binance's USDC on the ETH chain just resumed withdrawals, and the first batch of people to move once the channel opened were already looking to relocate funds.
Some in the community moved Binance's USDC to OKX to participate in simple earning; this kind of movement only changes where the funds are held, not the total amount, and does not help net increase on the issuance side.
The condition for both sides to align is for circulation to stop declining while transaction volume growth remains above 40%; if volume continues to shrink, the 49% figure will only reflect turnover contribution. $USDC
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% BTC and ETH showed a slight hourly recovery, but volume dropped nearly 50%, suggesting buying pressure remains weak.
$BTC is around $76,310, facing resistance at $76,430–$76,560. A breakout could open the way toward $76,810–$77,010, while losing $76,035 risks retesting $75,200.
$ETH is near $2,245. It needs to reclaim $2,250–$2,270 to strengthen recovery; otherwise, $2,236 and $2,206 remain key supports.
$BTC $ETH
#CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49% $SNDK Why have AI giants plummeted so much? Let me explain, what's the current situation? The funds in a reservoir are limited. Now there are two groups needing this money: one is the U.S. government to fill the fiscal gap, and the other is AI giants frantically building data centers, also requiring cash flow. But the money in the reservoir is finite. This is something I mentioned a long time ago. Before the midterm elections, the Democrats began publicly stating that if they win, they would restrict the construction of data centers. But when exactly will the construction of data centers be allowed again? That depends on when the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates and injecting liquidity into this reservoir. In the short term, the funds in the reservoir probably won't flow to AI anymore, because no one can guarantee future performance. However, buying 5- or 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds yields at least 5-10%. Got it? Nonfarm Payrolls Arrive After a Sharp Drop: Will the Data Amplify Volatility or Bring Recovery?
After last night's plunge, those watching the market probably felt uneasy. U.S. tech stocks faced sell-offs, and BTC and ETH also retreated; even more frustrating, the nonfarm payrolls report hasn't come out yet tonight, and the market must face another test of interest rate expectations.
My view: There is a chance for recovery after a big drop, but we can't assume a rebound just because the drop was large once the data is released.
Let's look at the downside first. If employment and wages are clearly strong, the market will worry about rate hikes again, U.S. Treasury yields will rise accordingly, and BTC and ETH's rebound may face pressure again. For BTC, watch around 75200, and for ETH, around 2206—these are their recent 24-hour lows. If the 1-hour candlestick breaks below and fails to recover after the rebound, I will consider continued weakness as the short-term scenario and avoid buying for now.
If employment cools moderately and rate pressure eases, both coins may see recovery. But I won't chase after just one bullish candle: first observe if BTC can reclaim 77000 and ETH can reclaim 2300, then wait to see if the pullback holds. These two are key round-number levels for observation, not guaranteed support.
There is another scenario that can mislead people: if the data is too weak, U.S. Treasury yields fall, but the market starts worrying about growth, coin prices may not rise accordingly. Conversely, even if the data is strong, as long as both coins hold their lows and reclaim the observation levels, I will adjust my cautious stance.
$BTC $ETH #非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ A company earned 1.178 billion USD in one quarter, and you might think it went crazy mining. Actually, its main business only brought in 233 million, the rest is a large portion from the valuation increase of warrants held, recorded on the books.
At the same time, another veteran did the opposite: sold all 2,520 $BTC, got 192 million USD in cash, basically cleared reserves, and said it will sell any mined coins in the future, using the money to build AI data centers.
One keeps the coins on paper turning them into profit, the other converts coins into cash and leaves. Both make sense, but it looks a bit surreal.
Meanwhile, $TRX is still slowly buying, adding another 155,000 coins.Republican coins: BTC, BNB, JUP, DOGE, XRP, TRUMP, WLFI
Democratic coins: ETH, XLM, LINK, SOL, UNI, PEPE, ZEC
Although it's just a meme, the Democrats won, ETH and SOL rose, and BTC also increased. The real losers are TRUMP and WLFI, because their value is tied to Trump's political influence, and the premium was taken away. XRP didn't crash along; it follows its own regulatory narrative. BTC relies on ETFs and interest rate expectations, while ETH and SOL seem more like oversold recoveries.
What to buy next still depends on cash flow, supply structure, and position in the sector. Just yesterday morning, it had just bounced back to 80,000, but today the US stock market slapped it back down to 76,000, and the momentum didn't hold.
BTC is around $76,222 this morning, down 5.3% in 24 hours, ETH down 7.3% back to $2,242.
Last night, the US stock market was the main battlefield: the Nasdaq plunged 5.52% into correction territory, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, Nvidia dropped 9%, AMD, Micron, and Marvell fell 17%.
The trigger is still the midterm elections; after the Democrats took both chambers, the market worries that AI data center expansion will be tightened. Once that narrative loosened, the crypto market got hit along with it.
When BTC broke below 77,000, about $370 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, mostly longs.
Honestly, yesterday's surge was just shorts covering and being squeezed out; no one really took the baton, and 80,000 never held.
My plan: 75,000 is a line that has held multiple times since August. If it drops near there, I'll look in batches; if it breaks, I'll admit the mistake and exit. I won't add positions until it bounces back above 80,000.
Tonight at 21:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next test, with an expected increase of 65,000. I won't make any moves before the data comes out.
Before Nonfarm, trying to bottom-fish in this kind of drop is just handing money to the shorts. $BTC $ETH $SOL $WLFI
I will first discount the buyback announcement.
WLFI said it plans to use USD1 reserve income and other funds for token buybacks, with initial funds to be activated first, and the scale and speed to be adjusted later based on ecosystem growth and governance participation. It sounds directional, but there is currently no clear amount or pace, so the "planned buyback" cannot be directly counted as an already active buy order.
OKX spot is currently quoted at $0.04722, with a 24-hour low of $0.04355 and a high of $0.04887. It has bounced about 8% from the low during the day but is still some distance from the high. Perpetual positions are about $8.42 million, with a fee rate of 0.005%, lower than the common 0.01% benchmark; contract volume is not small, but positions are not heavy, indicating more short-term turnover.
I prefer to wait for the buyback details to be finalized before making a judgment. The announcement can support sentiment, but whether it can truly support the price depends on the money and execution.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Just yesterday morning, it had just bounced back to 80,000, but today the US stock market slapped it back down to 76,000, and the momentum didn't hold.
BTC is around $76,222 this morning, down 5.3% in 24 hours, ETH down 7.3% back to $2,242.
Last night, the US stock market was the main battlefield: the Nasdaq plunged 5.52% into correction territory, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12%, Nvidia dropped 9%, AMD, Micron, and Marvell fell 17%.
The trigger is still the midterm elections; after the Democrats took both chambers, the market worries that AI data center expansion will be tightened. Once that narrative loosened, the crypto market got hit along with it.
When BTC broke below 77,000, about $370 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, mostly longs.
Honestly, yesterday's surge was just shorts covering and being squeezed out; no one really took the baton, and 80,000 never held.
My plan: 75,000 is a line that has held multiple times since August. If it drops near there, I'll look in batches; if it breaks, I'll admit the mistake and exit. I won't add positions until it bounces back above 80,000.
Tonight at 21:30, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is the next test, with an expected increase of 65,000. I won't make any moves before the data comes out.
Before Nonfarm, trying to bottom-fish in this kind of drop is just handing money to the shorts. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC $ETH $XAU
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
1. The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil transportation. If the route is blocked, oil prices will rise rapidly. Rising oil prices will push up global inflation, directly suppressing expectations for a Fed rate cut and even increasing the possibility of a rate hike. The strengthening of US Treasury real yields is bearish for interest-free risk assets like BTC.
2. Capital risk aversion reallocates
Capital will flow in layers: gold and US Treasuries are traditional safe havens; high-risk assets like US tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will be sold off first.
Many people have a misconception: war does not equal a crypto market rally. Currently, BTC is classified as a risk asset, and at the outbreak of conflict, risk appetite usually declines and capital flees.
The upcoming market will be volatile. Brothers, what are your thoughts? Yesterday, crypto concept stocks took two completely opposite paths, perfectly exposing the industry's current most awkward situation.
First, look at Core Scientific. Q3 revenue was $233 million, net profit $1.178 billion. This difference wasn’t mined; it’s the change in the fair value of warrants recorded in the profit and loss statement. The same machines, the same electricity costs, but the book profit is inflated fivefold by Wall Street’s pricing rules.
On the other hand, Keel Infrastructure, formerly Bitfarms, sold 2,520 BTC all at once, cashing out $192 million, basically clearing out reserves, and announced that future output will be sold immediately, with all proceeds invested in AI infrastructure.
The logic is straightforward: AI data centers can now get higher valuation multiples, and $BTC is the easiest asset to liquidate on the balance sheet. Selling coins doesn’t require issuing debt or new shares, making it the cheapest form of financing.
Tron Inc. is doing the opposite, still dollar-cost averaging, this time adding 155,000 TRX, bringing total reserves to 722 million. While mining companies exit, the ecosystem side is supporting, so the $TRX chip structure relies more on a single entity than $BTC.
What’s really worth watching isn’t that $1.178 billion, but who is actually selling coins for real money. The profit and loss statement can be polished, but cash flow doesn’t lie.$ETH
A security update has been released, but ETH's market hasn't responded favorably.
MetaMask stated that in the validator node incident in September, all affected nodes have exited, and there is no sign that wallets or wallet infrastructure were compromised; about 0.385 ETH in staking rewards were transferred, not users' principal. This distinction must be clear—don't confuse validator node rewards being redirected with wallets being hacked.
However, ETH is now around $2240, having dropped nearly 8% in 24 hours from $2429 to $2206. About $1.5 billion in perpetual positions remain open, and the funding rate is nearly zero. The security incident itself isn't major; clearly, there are other factors weighing on the price right now.
I will treat this as a risk background, not an independent trading reason. Let's first see if the market can absorb this drop.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 A $97.02 tower, with the upper structure only 0.2% away from the upper Bollinger Band, yet the bulls treat the 1.97% daily gain as a topping ceremony — this 0.2% eccentricity is enough to cause the most beautiful facade to crack under wind vibration.
The foundation of $JITOSOL is the Solana staking architecture; the load-bearing wall of liquidity derivatives lies in the validator set and redemption mechanism, not in the whitepaper's design diagram. The short-term RSI has reached 66.4, surpassing the sell threshold of 64; the 1-hour RSI signals not an overbought frenzy but the start of seepage at construction joints. The short-term Bollinger Band price position is 87%, 1.4% above the lower band and 0.2% below the upper band, a precursor to plastic hinges forming at beam ends before node yielding. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 51%, 3.2% above the lower band and 2.9% below the upper band; the core tube is temporarily stable, but the upper structure has entered a nonlinear response. The 24-hour gain of 1.97% is merely facade decoration; the load-bearing system has not been simultaneously reinforced. Entry at 98.38, 1.4% above the current price, is waiting for the beam to rebound to the preset sell point, not chasing load increases at the tower tip; targets at 94.55 and 94.03 represent declines of 2.5% and 3.1%, corresponding to a structural unloading at the support zone near the lower band +1.4%. The stop loss at 108.25, +11.6%, is seismic redundancy to prevent sudden foundation overload.
📉 Short:
Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%)
Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%)
Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%)
Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%)
This trade only dismantles the excessive tension in the upper structure without touching the core tube; when the price is only 0.2% from the upper band, chasing longs is like cutting holes in the load-bearing wall.Haha, Trump’s move directly crashed his own Meme coin 😂
In the midterm elections, the Republican Party underperformed, and the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate. Trump's political prospects took a big hit, and the $TRUMP coin with the same name suffered as well.
Yesterday, TRUMP hit a low of $1.215, setting a historic low. Compared to its peak of over $70, it has dropped more than 98%! The funniest part is, BTC has started to slowly rebound, but this coin keeps plummeting.
To be clear, this coin’s hype isn’t based on technology at all; it’s purely propped up by Trump’s political heat.
Now that the Republicans lost Congress, it will be extremely difficult for him to push crypto-related policies, and the Democrats might even start investigating his family’s crypto businesses.
The story they hyped before is basically dead.
The most valuable thing for a Meme coin is consensus. Once everyone loses confidence, the drop can be brutal.
Trump still has two years in office, but those holding TRUMP probably don’t want to stick around with him anymore. #US stocks suffer heavy sell-off: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posts largest single-day drop since March 2020
The boss has something to say
I went to bed with no positions last night, and the first thing I saw this morning was this: On November 5, US stocks experienced a heavy sell-off, with the Dow down 3.44%, the S&P 500 down 4.36% to 7353, and the Nasdaq down 5.52% to 24315, having retraced nearly 12% from the October 6 high, entering a correction zone; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25% in a single day, marking its largest drop since March 2020, and S&P 500 constituents lost about $3 trillion in market value in one day. The trigger was the midterm elections where the Democrats took control of both houses, and the new governor of Texas promised to suspend data center approvals—Goldman Sachs calculated that Texas accounts for a quarter of all data center expansion in the US.
My interpretation is: this is not an ordinary correction; it is the first time the “AI infrastructure narrative” has been directly stabbed by policy. The market’s concern is not about demand disappearing, but that the switches of approvals and power are being held down, limiting new computing power supply, and the entire high-beta chain is being devalued together. Last night I stayed out and watched AAOI and Oklo earnings reports; looking back now, that was the right move—at this level of sell-off, any leveraged long position is a life-risking bet.
BTC fell along this morning, breaking below 76000, just smashing below the 78960 support line I mentioned a few days ago. My approach: don’t catch the first down candle, wait for panic selling to subside; first see if 75000–75800 can hold $BTC $ETH $ZEC The Nasdaq plunged 5.5% in one day, wiping out $2.5 trillion in market value! Just yesterday, people were celebrating the rebound, and today tech stocks got hammered badly.
The worst hit were semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 12%. Popular stocks like AMD and Micron didn't escape either.
This time, it’s really not just market panic to blame.
After the US midterm elections, the market started worrying that AI data center construction will face more obstacles. Power, water usage, approvals — it was already complicated, and now policy uncertainty has increased.
What’s worse, many data center companies rely on borrowing to expand.
If projects get delayed, revenue can wait, but interest payments won’t.
So there’s a notable change in this round of declines: the market is starting to reassess AI companies with large orders but insufficient cash flow.
With such a big drop, is it time to bottom-fish?
Short term, the bias is still bearish; no rush to buy.
The Nasdaq has entered a technical correction zone; first, watch if the semiconductor sector can stop falling. If chip stocks keep leading the decline, even occasional rebounds in the broader market might not last long.
Conversely, if semiconductors stabilize and financing pressure eases, then consider gradually building positions in companies with real profit support.
AI demand hasn’t suddenly disappeared, but the days when just telling an expansion story could drive prices up might be over.
With this tech stock crash, do you think it’s an overreaction or is the AI sector really bursting a bubble? $SNDK $SOXL #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Looking at this headline feels like seeing two people dining together and spending over a thousand, only to find upon checking the bill that one ordered a full Manchu Han Imperial Feast while the other just had a bowl of soup 😂
According to SoSoValue data, on November 5th Eastern US time, the US ZEC and NEAR spot ETFs had net outflows of $10,994,100 and $773,800 respectively, totaling $11,767,900. I think the main caution with this news is the emotional misinterpretation caused by the "total" figure, rather than labeling both coins uniformly as bearish: the outflow is clearly concentrated in $ZEC, and the redemption pressure on both sides cannot be equated; ETF fund flows are just one channel and cannot directly represent the overall capital movement of the coins.
If this total outflow is interpreted as both sectors falling out of favor simultaneously, I believe the evidence is insufficient. If you were to write the headline, would you highlight ZEC or put both coins side by side—should NEAR's bowl of soup share the bill of the full Manchu Han Imperial Feast?$OFC has already died prematurely. The project team continuously rewards workers and fans with coins without a clear unlocking schedule or fixed circulation. The endless airdrops make big investors hesitant to come in and manipulate the price easily. Looking at it now, 99.99% of the accounts are small retail investors who think that with such a low market cap, big money can easily pump it tenfold or a hundredfold, but little do they know there are no big holders at all. If there are any, they are stuck inside and can't move, not foolishly pumping the price to let you profit. The only way out is for the platform to delist it, and everyone suffers together inside. Better to cut losses and leave early than to die inside.Pal $BTC Market Morning Report -11.6 Today there is quite a lot of text; if you don't want to read, just skip to the conclusion at the end. If you want to follow along with the analysis, please be patient. 1. K-line Chart 1) Daily Chart Situation (Figure 1) 1) Here we go again, drawing a good gate. Currently, the market is completely controlled by emotions and news. On Wednesday, the market believed that a Democratic victory could check Trump, so it rose, but on Thursday, due to a Democratic super AI ban, market fear intensified directly. This is somewhat like in ancient times when someone claimed to have 1 million troops after leading 10,000, causing the enemy to abandon the city immediately. However, for us, the decline is a buying opportunity at the bottom, not a reason to distrust. Because after a single-day plunge of 5%, it is often followed by short covering or an oversold rebound (for example, the top 20 largest single-day gains in history almost always closely follow the top 20 largest single-day losses). Two consecutive trading days with drops over 5% each day is an extremely rare black swan event, which has only happened twice in history. (I will write a dedicated article at noon.) 2) From the K-line perspective, this is maintaining the 75-81 range I mentioned, just that this oscillation is very unpleasant. Actually, BTC is still relatively strong compared to the US stock market; it just gave back Wednesday's gains. Currently, 81-82 is a short-term important resistance level. Below that, 749 is waiting to be plundered. Then look at positions around 732 and 71, or more accurately, the current bottom is around 70-75. Unless the US stock market continues with black swan events, dropping 5% consecutively.I've always been puzzled by one thing: the crypto world talks every day about how scarce and valuable AI computing power is, yet several newly inaugurated governors in the US have announced they won't allow new data centers. Ohio, Georgia, and Texas are among them. Cleanview says 40% of the planned capacity is stuck in these states, and 17 referendums have outright rejected large data centers.
So is it really a shortage of computing power, or is it that no one wants a data center near their home? $TAO and $FET represent the former, while the votes represent the latter. I haven't figured it out yet, so I'll just watch for now. The expansion of data centers in the United States has been held back by votes for the first time. The newly elected governors of Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico, and Texas have publicly pledged to stop or delay statewide data center construction; the new governors of New York and Oregon have promised to extend existing moratoriums. This is not opposition from some small towns, but a change in stance at the state level.
Cleanview's statistics clarify the scale: about 40% of the planned data center capacity in the U.S. is slated for these states. The most certain new computing power supply has 40% stuck in approvals and referendums. Additionally, 46 local referendum measures have passed or are expected to pass, with at least 17 directly banning the construction of large data centers. This is a hard constraint, not a delay.
Why? The electricity and water bills for data centers are local expenses, noise and electricity price increases are borne by residents, while the profits go to distant cloud providers. Once the votes are in, local politics immediately respond. The bottleneck for AI computing power is shifting from chips to power access and land permits.
For the crypto world, tokens like $TAO, $FET, and $RENDER, which rely on the AI computing power narrative, must face an uncomfortable short-term reality: the other half of the story is being held back, causing a pullback in sentiment. But demand hasn't disappeared, supply is limited, and the price for renting computing power may actually become firmer. The real beneficiaries are players who already have electricity and grid connection quotas. $BTC and $ETH are unrelated to this trend.
One point worth considering: in the past two years, the race was about who could buy cards faster; going forward, it may be about who can secure electricity.SpaceX (SPCX) Weekly: Returned to the IPO price of 135 for the second time since listing. Real data (Yahoo, as of 11-04): Four trading days this week -6.4%, +1.2%, +3.6%, -3.81%, closing at $135.92, giving back the pre-election rebound; intraday on 11-04 once broke below 135 to 133.14, then pulled back above the IPO price at the close—there is clear buying defense around 135. Expanded to 64 trading days since listing: IPO price 135, highest 176.42 (10-21), lowest 105.11, currently +0.7%, completing two full rollercoaster cycles. This week's decline is macro-driven: the midterm election blue wave materialized, tech and AI repriced, Tesla down 10% the same day, with both companies losing about $37 billion in market value over two days. Event catalysts on 11-12: Starship Flight 15's first dual recovery; success could lead to valuation re-rating; combined with $40 billion off-balance-sheet chip financing (Goldman Sachs/Apollo syndicate, buying Nvidia leaseback) to expand computing power footprint. Technically, 135 is the lifeline: holding it confirms a double bottom, breaking it points to around 120. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $BTC $SNDK $SOXL My first reaction when I saw this message was: Opening a store in a mall doesn't mean there will be daily foot traffic. Business is about input and output; I think the same applies to ETFs. Having a channel is good, but where the cash flow goes is the daily ledger that needs to be reviewed.
According to SoSoValue data, on November 5th Eastern US time, the US ZEC and NEAR spot ETFs had net outflows of $10.9941 million and $0.7738 million respectively, totaling $11.7679 million. Among them, the Zcash ETF (ZCSH) had a net outflow of $10.9941 million, while the historical cumulative net inflow of the ZEC spot ETF remains $207 million.
My judgment is that this is a short-term negative sentiment for funds, but not enough to sentence the long-term demand for these two assets. The outflow this time mainly focused on ZEC; summarizing it as both tracks falling out of favor is too rough an estimate.
Single-day net outflow is the income and expenditure of that day, while cumulative net inflow is a longer-term account; the two cannot be mixed. My guess is that if outflows continue, the pressure on fund absorption needs more caution; looking at just one day is like seeing many returns in a store on a single day and directly concluding the business can't continue.
For me, this message is a reminder that risk reserves cannot be skimped on, and ETFs should not be treated as faucets that automatically flow in funds. How would business friends view this kind of risk: would you wait for several consecutive days of cash flow, or judge based on asset scale and cumulative inflows?In the past 24 hours, $BTC has surged from 76,000 to around 80,500, but what’s truly worth watching isn’t the price increase itself, but the glaring contrast in the liquidation structure: total liquidations reached $740 million, with shorts accounting for $490 million and longs only $250 million. As the price moves up, it’s the bearish side that’s being forced out. This isn’t an ordinary short squeeze; it’s a position repricing driven by an event. Connecting this clue to the current market narrative makes the logic clear: with the midterm elections concluded and the small non-farm payroll data released simultaneously, these two events combined have triggered a one-time release of the previously pent-up wait-and-see sentiment on $BTC. Capital isn’t betting on direction but on the disappearance of uncertainty. The shorts are precisely on the “wait and see” side, thus becoming the fuel for this rally. The market often underestimates the destructive power of such an “event vacuum” — when hesitation, not fundamentals, suppresses price, once hesitation is erased by data, the rebound slope will be steeper than most expect. What’s even more notable is the price action itself. After $BTC surged to 80,500, it didn’t accelerate further but instead consolidated sideways. This indicates the driving force came from short covering rather than new long positions, representing a repair of the position structure rather than a full-scale entry of trend capital. In other words, the "quality" of this rally needs to be validated by the next catalyst, and Friday night’s non-farm payroll data is that catalyst. If the employment data strengthens expectations for a December rate hike, the valuation logic for risk assets will be tightened again; if the data is soft, the current momentum of short covering may continue. In either scenario, 8 #AAOI high-speed optical module volume surge, can the Q3 earnings report exceed expectations? After 75543 broke down, there was no panic selling; instead, it was bought back to 76000 — even more notably, BTC fees have turned negative, with short positions clustering on two major coins simultaneously.
Following up on Friday morning. First, the judgment: 75000 is temporarily defended by some, but it is not a confirmed stabilization; open interest remains at 610 million contracts, and leveraged positions have not been cleared. Continue short positions in the simulated market, watching two key levels today: a volume surge back above 77000 indicates short covering and the start of a short squeeze, so lightly follow with a quick position; if it cannot break above 77000 and 75162 breaks again, the next target is directly the 200-day moving average at 73169, with no mid-level scalp trades.
A bit of background: last night the US semiconductor index fell 12%, the worst night since March 2020, with over $1 billion in liquidations across the network. The root cause of this decline lies in the weakening AI narrative, not an issue within the crypto space itself.
Negative fees mean shorts are so crowded they have to pay longs; last Wednesday's squeeze was a prerequisite for this. But in a downtrend, squeeze rebounds are often just escapes for trapped longs, so don't mistake a rebound for a reversal.
The two most dangerous moves in a downtrend are: bottom-fishing immediately after a drop, and only believing in a reversal after a rebound.
$ETH $SNDK #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Yesterday, Sandisk experienced significant volatility, dropping sharply from 1100 to a low of 800, hitting a new phase low.
Many are puzzled: wasn’t there an official announcement of a 1-for-8 stock split? Why did the stock plunge despite the split expectations?
First, clarify a key point: a stock split does not equal positive price movement.
A stock split is merely a division of shares, effective November 19, aimed at lowering the price per share to facilitate retail investor participation; the company's intrinsic value and shareholding proportions remain unchanged.
This plunge is not caused by the stock split itself but by a collective weakening sentiment in the storage sector, combined with a loosening of long-term demand expectations for flash memory, leading to concentrated capital outflows and triggering this deep correction.
Positive news turning negative—markets always price in expectations ahead of time.
The storage sector is highly volatile; be cautious when chasing highs.