#U.S. October existing home sales hit a 16-year low
About U.S. October existing home sales hit a 16-year low
U.S. existing home sales in October plunged 5.5% month-over-month to an annualized 3.75 million units, marking the weakest level in 16 years, but the median home price still rose. During the same period, U.S. credit card debt hit a record $1.29 trillion, demand for 30-year Treasury auctions was weak with a winning yield of 5.441%, and the U.S. fiscal deficit reached $404 billion in the first month. Multiple data points suppressed risk appetite. Expectations of tighter macro liquidity conditions may impact crypto assets and the overall liquidity environment.
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⚡️US existing-home sales just plunged 5.5% in October to a 3.75 million annualized pace, the weakest level in 16 years.
Yet the median home price still rose 0.4% year over year to $416,700, even as inventory climbed to 5.1 months of supply.
The housing correction has already happened. It happened in liquidity before it happened in price.
A market price only means something when transactions actually occur. When sales collapse while nominal prices remain elevated, the quoted price increasingly reflects the last regime rather than a true clearing price for the current one.
America now has two housing economies occupying the same streets.
One owner financed the house at 3%.
The next buyer has to finance the same house near 7%.
Same house. Completely different economic object.
The low-rate mortgage has effectively become an asset attached to the homeowner. Selling destroys it, so millions of owners rationally refuse to transact.
Monetary policy accidentally created a class of households whose wealth is protected by immobility.
The homeowner remains anchored to yesterday’s cost of capital while the buyer is forced to live in today’s.
Housing has become a temporal class system.
Prices still reflect the old financing regime. Monthly payments reflect the new one. Sellers are anchored to what their homes were worth when money was cheap. Buyers have to make the numbers work at today’s rates.
So the market clears through disappearance.
Transactions vanish.
But time keeps creating sellers through death, divorce, relocation, job loss, inheritance, financial pressure, and new construction.
Eventually yesterday’s price meets today’s actual buyer.
And that is when the nominal adjustment begins.
The housing crash does not begin when prices fall.
It begins when the market can no longer generate enough transactions at existing prices.
That phase is already here.
Volume was reality’s first objection.
Price is what happens when the objection can no longer be ignored.
CCC junk bond yields hit 18%.🥹
But don't panic: it gets much worse
A bull flag has developed on junk bond yields as the primary bond market starts to deteriorate. As predicted, the junk sector is starting to get nervous.
Watch those wider spreads between the benchmark and CCC-rated debt..the wider they get, the more significant the underlying stress becomes.
Lots of skeletons await in the closet.
P.S. For those who want a more in-depth analysis of the entire market..covering both technicals and fundamentals across a wide geographical spectrum..a detailed report is released daily for subscribers.
Stay disciplined, stay safe, perhaps stay a little curious, but most of all, stay informed.
Yours truly,
The Great Martis🎩
The Great Martis
CCC junk bond yields
A prolonged move above 17% and it's going to get ugly.
The Refinancing Wall: When yields cross 17%, the cost of capital becomes terminal for highly leveraged, triple C rated companies. They cannot afford to roll over their maturing debt, triggering a wave of corporate defaults and bankruptcies.
Complete capital market freeze above 20%
Something inauspicious is brewing.
🇺🇸 United States 30-Year Bond Auction $USD
Actual: 5.441%
Previous: 5.618%
Existing-Home Sales Hit Lowest Since August 2010 Amid High Mortgage Rates, NAR Says
01:32 PM EST, 11/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US existing-home sales in October reached their lowest level in more than 16 years amid elevated mortgage rates, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.
Sales decreased 5.5% sequentially to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million units last month. The consensus was for a 3.5% drop in a Bloomberg poll. Sales fell in the Midwest, South and West, but held steady in the Northeast, NAR said.
"Home buying is difficult when mortgage rates