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After the CPI release on the evening of October 14, both the stock market and crypto fell together. $SOL dropped from 113 to just over 100 dollars this week, a decline of about 10% from the high to the low.
When prices fall, first distinguish who is selling. Whether the money is flowing out from futures or spot markets, the subsequent market situation differs.
The futures columns don’t seem to be running. The funding rate has remained positive, rising to 0.0097% at midnight on October 15, meaning longs continue to pay shorts. Open interest increased from 8.44 million to 8.96 million contracts; prices are falling but positions are increasing. The long-short ratio of large accounts rose from 2.58 to 2.89.
On the spot side, it’s the opposite: the proportion of aggressive sell orders reached 58% on October 15, compared to around 48% in previous days. Aggressive sells directly consume buy orders; a high proportion means sellers are eager to exit.
The spot chips are being sold off, while the large holders on futures are taking them in. This combination has appeared 7 times in the past 500 trading days; in the following 7 days, 4 times the price rose and 3 times it fell, with a median increase of 3.3%, the best gain 24.3%, and the worst loss 6.4%. The median for all trading days in the same period was a 0.5% decline.
The sample size is only 7, so it can’t be considered a rule, but at least spot selling doesn’t necessarily mean continued decline. What needs monitoring is whether the batch of longs taking delivery is still present; if the funding rate drops to negative and open interest falls accordingly, it means this wave of holders has changed.
ETF outflows are only a bit over one million dollars per day, negligible compared to daily volume of 3 billion; it’s not the main force behind this wave.#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
$TSM Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, up 50% year-over-year, exceeding the company's USD guidance upper limit by 2%. This figure was announced with the monthly revenue on October 8, and the market has had seven days to digest it.
Last night after the US market closed, ASML raised its full-year 2026 guidance for the third consecutive quarter, with net profit doubling year-over-year. ADR fell 4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.3%. On the same day, US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 37%, but the market has not yet priced in the above-expectation data.
ASML's earnings report showed a gross margin of 57.5%, surpassing the guidance upper limit, driven by service and upgrades based on installed equipment. The doubling of net profit included a pre-tax valuation gain of about $510 million from Mistral AI. Management said customers are already inquiring about equipment for 2029 and 2030.
TSMC will hold its earnings call today at 2 PM. Revenue is clear; the only suspense remains the gross margin. Last quarter was 67.7%, guidance is 65% to 67%, consensus at 66.5%.
2nm actually accounted for 3% in Q2; Bank of America estimates 11% in Q3 and 18% in Q4, supporting above 67%. Next year’s 70% has backing. If below 66%, the sell-side curve will have to be adjusted downward. $xTSM
$ASML said supply will be insufficient from 2027 to 2028. TSMC will update its 2027 capital expenditure plan today.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 In the model, the cautious/benchmark/optimistic scenarios adopt tax rates of approximately 18%/17%/16%, and diluted shares of 4.22/4.20/4.18 billion respectively; net non-operating expenses are about $130 million/$110 million/$90 million respectively. Therefore, the optimistic scenario includes joint improvements in profit margin, tax rate, and share count.TSMC's record revenue is old news. Today's real test: margins.
Q3 revenue: ~NT$1.49T, up ~50% YoY, record high (already confirmed) Q3 gross margin guide: 65-67%
Last quarter it printed 67.7%, above the top of its own guide
Earnings call: Oct 15, 14:00 Taiwan time.
Revenue is the headline. Profit growth is the question.
Where does Q3 gross margin land?
- Above 67%
- 65-67%
- Below 65%
#TSMCOct15Earnings #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance yet to be revealed Four questions determine the direction
Can the full-year guidance be raised again? Morgan Stanley expects it to be raised from "above 40%" to "mid to low 40%", Goldman Sachs forecasts 42% full-year growth in 2026, and Q4 revenue is expected to decline by 0.05 quarter-on-quarter. The record revenue of TSMC was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might already be a step behind the pace. #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
Tesla will showcase the long-delayed Roadster at an event in Texas on October 15, planning to demonstrate levitation using SpaceX rocket technology, employing compressed gas thrusters to lift the car body, with no one inside. Elon Musk is reportedly warning employees that this performance "is difficult to accomplish and may go wrong." According to BeInCrypto, the market is focused on whether this unveiling will boost the stock price or repeat the sell-off seen after previous product launches.
Tesla's stock closed at $375.23 on Tuesday, about 25% below its 52-week high. Historically, after the 2019 Cybertruck launch, the stock dropped 6%; after the October 2024 Cybercab launch, it fell 8.3%; and after another Cybercab event on September 4, it declined 5.92%. Analysts say that if clear pricing, mass production, and delivery schedules are provided, TSLA could be supported; otherwise, the first trading day on October 16 may face disappointment. $TSLA #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix reports Q3 after the close on Oct 20. Guidance calls for ~$12.86B in revenue, up ~12% YoY, so the bar is already set. The real swing factors are ad-tier adoption, inventory fill rate, and CPM trends. If ads scale while margins hold, the growth narrative stays intact. Watching operating margin and Q4 guidance closely$FIL 永续50倍空单，1.1481开，现1.0667，浮盈+354.49%。
思路很朴素：顶部横盘缩量到极致，波动率压到地板，说明筹码准备派发。一根放量阴线直接把价格从 1.1481 砸下来，典型的破位信号，追空不追多。50倍杠杆，止损 1.20。走势一路向下，不给任何舒服的下车位，盈利直接起飞。
这位置我打算先减一半仓位落袋，剩下的一半止损提到 1.08 让利润跑。1.00 能放量跌破就继续拿，跌不破就全平走人。$BTC $ETH #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ 持续看空10.15周四，准备多空双杀的盘面走势吗？搁着昨晚的818附近盘阵是为了今早再割一刀？
这盘面换你怎么选？ 这一针是不是看着很唬人？可8w关口依然守住了，那是你空头最严厉的父亲。简单讲，通胀没压下去，流动性收紧预期回来，就是短期最大的利空。反观链上，ETF资金并没有出现大额出逃，给行情托了一点底，没有出现崩盘暴跌，大饼想突破843级别阻力，只有回调下去激活下方的买盘进来，后续行情上行测压，才能带量突破。
技术面，4小时下跌浪里，短期反弹过不了828，后续还有可能回调测试8w关口。MACD死叉，空头i住缩短不等于多头控盘，但是激活下方买盘的入场。小时线插针回收，现在在810-818重建筹码，没放量站稳820，不算转强。
综上，日内依然多头为主，回调803-808区间接多，带量站稳820右侧追多，目标828，843，852$BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 两点思考：
1、如果6w就是底的话，为什么不看好btc未来的上涨幅度。可以参考下上一个周期eth的走势，eth在2022年6月就见底了，只跌了半年，作为一个体量比btc小的大市值币种，跌幅居然没比特币大，没有大跌，洗盘不干净，车重，就没有大涨，上个周期eth的拉胯有目共睹，这一轮严格意义上讲，比特币也是只跌了半年。
2、为什么没有大跌，就没有大涨？仔细回想下近十年币圈最好的行情是那两段？一个是2017年的9.4之后，一个是2020年的3.12之后，全部都是生物大灭绝行情，世间万物的规律就是不破不立，旧的不去，新的不来，旧的财团一直把持着资源，新的财团就无法进入，筹码无法聚集，行情就无法重启。
只有再来一波大逃亡，才有可能重复上演绝地反击。如果机构手里的筹码一直洗不出来，那就只能接受这么一个半死不活的币圈。HYPE现价约80美元，较9月底高点近98美元回撤约18%，测试80美元支撑。 团队10月完成375万枚（约3.3亿美元）OTC分发，避免公开抛售压力，部分已重新质押。 协议累计收入超14亿美元，Assistance Fund已回购超4800万枚、花费13.6亿美元，持仓市值约39.5亿美元，价值回流机制持续强劲。 短期受大盘回调、ETF资金流出及多头清算拖累，但永续交易主导地位与回购烧币仍支撑基本面，80美元附近或成关键博弈区。Google Cloud's 82% growth rate is not simply a celebration of good news; it is a major test of returns under high investment. The rapid growth is already confirmed, but the core market concern now is whether the massive cash burn can be converted into stable cash flow.
The enterprise demand for AI computing power is genuinely exploding, directly driving Google Cloud's revenue surge. The large backlog of orders has already secured the basic foundation for the near future, and this main growth trajectory remains unshaken.
However, to secure the AI track, Google has raised its full-year capital expenditure for 2026 to $195-205 billion. The cost of aggressively investing in computing infrastructure is short-term cash flow pressure. The market no longer simply chases revenue growth but begins to price in the payback cycle of massive capital investments. The biggest question on investors' minds is: with so much money invested, will profits keep pace with expansion?
Currently, bulls bet on sustained hot AI demand, expecting scale effects to dilute costs and future profit margins to improve; bears worry about an endless arms race in computing power that continuously erodes profits and extends the investment payback period. The Q3 earnings report on October 28 will focus on three macro indicators: cloud business profit margin levels, capital expenditure pacing guidance, and management's long-term judgment on AI commercialization.
The track is definitely upward in the long term, but the short term is full of uncertainty. Do not prematurely bet on the market just because of impressive growth. Revenue is only surface-level heat; the efficiency of investment returns is the key to pricing. $GOOGL $xGOOGL #GoogleCloudBusinessGrowth82%,HowIsAIInvestmentReturn 结论先行：$WAL 24小时逆势 +46%——大盘262家下跌，它独自飘红，4H量价说得很清楚这不是板块轮动，是有人在控盘。
数据（OKX公开行情）：
- 10-14 04:00 → 10-15 04:00，4H连续放量：24万 → 520万 → 2314万 → 4041万 → 4268万 → 4618万；
- 价格从0.038最高拉到0.067，当前0.0602；
- 同期BTC -2.89%、ETH -5.73%、SOL -4.88%。
结构：连出5根放量大阳线，典型的小市值逆势拉升——量级对标大盘跌成这样还能直线拉，背后大概率有单一力量。关键支撑在0.055，守住横盘还有右侧机会，守不住这波就是短线猎杀。
不构成投资建议。你见过大盘全绿它独红的币吗？$WAL#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed $xTSEM TSMC will release its full Q3 financial report and hold an earnings call on October 15. According to the preliminary monthly data disclosed, Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a historical record. The company estimates the gross margin for this quarter to be in the 65%-67% range.
The impressive revenue is mainly driven by strong orders for AI chips. With revenue data now confirmed, market focus has shifted from revenue figures to whether net profit can also grow significantly, validating the high gross margin; at the same time, there is keen attention on Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure plans.
The market generally anticipates that the high optimism for AI has already been partially priced into the stock. Ahead of the earnings report, TSM's stock price has pulled back, with funds playing the risk of positive news being realized. If the Q4 performance guidance only meets market expectations, it will be difficult to drive the stock price higher; only an increase in capital expenditure and an outlook for Q4 business exceeding expectations will create new positive catalysts. Management's judgment on future AI chip demand during the earnings call will also influence short-term sentiment in the semiconductor sector.Core data: Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 46.7 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 51%, setting a new single-quarter record and significantly exceeding the upper limit of previous guidance; 2nm process began contributing revenue, 3nm/5nm capacity remains fully utilized, HPC (AI computing power chips) is the main growth driver, combined with Apple's 2nm orders for iPhones, the proportion of advanced process technology continues to rise.
1. AI computing power demand is the strongest fundamental driver
Orders for Nvidia's new generation GPUs and cloud providers' self-developed ASICs continue to pour in. HPC business unit prices are much higher than consumer chips, and with CoWoS advanced packaging, product structure optimization brings high gross margins. This is not simply about selling more wafers at higher prices; the proportion of high-end, high value-added orders is increasing, giving strong pricing power.
2. Smooth ramp-up of 2nm, widening the technology gap
In Q3, the revenue contribution from 2nm significantly increased, with Apple and AMD both adopting it simultaneously. TSMC is the only manufacturer globally capable of stable mass production of 2nm, and the technical barriers are difficult for Samsung and Intel to catch up with in the short term. The monopoly advantage of advanced process technology will remain solid for the next 2-3 years.
3. Dual engines: AI + HPC + Apple iPhones
HPC drives long-term high growth, while Apple's new iPhone contract manufacturing provides stable quarterly increments, smoothing out cycle fluctuations. The recovery of consumer electronics combined with AI's high momentum, with two high-value customers pushing simultaneously, is the key to this quarter's better-than-expected performance. At 8:30 last night, the moment I was watching the CPI data release, the market almost instantly plunged. The US September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, expected 3.6%; core year-on-year 2.6%, expected 2.5%; core monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%. All three exceeded expectations, none met expectations. The CPI annual rate hit a new high since May, and core CPI exceeded expectations for the second consecutive month. Energy prices rose 5.2%, gasoline up 9.1%—the fuel costs from the Iran war have truly been transmitted into inflation. I previously predicted core CPI at 0.2% would meet expectations, but that judgment was wrong. The market was wrong just like me, so the reaction was especially severe. BTC dropped from 84,348 straight down to 80,168, falling 4,180 points in four hours, a decline of 4.96%. The most critical point is that the 81,500 level was broken—this is the estimated comprehensive cost baseline for the US spot BTC ETF and also BTC's 400-day moving average. For the past three weeks, the daily closing price has steadily stayed above this line; the market regarded it as the "institutional cost line," believing institutions would not let the price fall below their cost. But last night it broke, and broke decisively, with no decent rebound. There was $1.716 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, 85% from longs. In the last hour alone, $525 million was liquidated, accounting for 31% of the whole day—this indicates the crash was a concentrated outbreak, with leveraged longs wiped out in one sweep. Nasdaq futures fell over 2%, S&P down 1.26%, gold down 2%, silver and gold...CoreWeave 从78跌到63只用了一周，债券收益率飙到15%，AI算力的"借新还旧"快撑不住了？
盘面：欧易xCRWV隔夜报价63.55、24h从高点78.37回撤19%；成交额29.57亿USDT、换手率13%，盘口卖单占99%，恐慌还没走完。
事件链很硬：10月14日美股直接暴跌16%，AI基建融资风险引爆；2032年到期、票息9.625%的债券收益率一路升到14.8%；FT爆料CoreWeave正把保险公司拉来当新债主，市场反而更慌；芯片融资规模已超350亿美元，还有分析师放话"AI周期一旦停滞，股权可能归零"。
这不是一家公司的事，是AI资本开支叙事的裂缝：GPU算力租赁的商业模式就是高息借债买芯片再租出去，链条最怕利率和需求同时翻脸；私人信贷泡沫的担忧，会顺着这条链传导到整个新云板块，英伟达撑腰也压不住。
盯债券收益率这个恐慌温度计；美股今晚看AI板块联动，反弹不追；欧易63.45支撑，破了看61.85，压力65.75。DYOR，非投资建议。
#CoreWeave #AI算力 #美股代币#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
Delivering record revenue in the off-season, AI computing power orders support TSMC's growth, with 2nm and 3nm advanced process capacities continuously running at full throttle.
But impressive revenue does not guarantee worry-free profits.
Massive overseas factory investments and rising capital expenditures will continue to dilute gross margins. The market's biggest concern now: can high revenue translate into high net profit, and what is the true quality of AI dividend profits?
Revenue is the face, profit is the substance. Tonight's earnings report will show whether profits can keep pace with the explosive revenue growth. $SNDK competitor squeeze, release of CPI data, can it still catch a breath in the short term? When is the approximate bottom-fishing opportunity?
Squeeze in the same industry, along with Samsung and SK Hynix Korean stocks continuing to weaken, massive foreign capital withdrawal, panic sentiment transmission combined with CPI data exceeding market expectations, rising interest rate hike expectations, technology sector collectively under pressure.
Its storage segment's valuation discounting logic based on interest rates has been heavily impacted. Currently, the market is digesting negative news and the short-term negative impact brought by CPI data. If it stabilizes and is driven by delayed cyclical news, then the price will rise.
#SanDisk MSCI rebalancing takes effect, NAND valuation under focus Once the CPI was released, all the excitement dissipated; underneath, things are actually very fragile. You might think it's just a slight data beat? The real issue is that the market has started to reprice rate hikes. On the surface, tonight is just the core CPI at 2.6%, 0.1% higher than expected. But I watched the market for those ten minutes, and the reaction was completely unlike what you'd expect from a "small beat." After the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC dropped 1.2%, gold fell 1.0%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.8%. Note here, even US stocks couldn't hold up; it’s no longer just gold and crypto taking the hit. This indicates the market is trading not on "rates staying high," but on "possibly another hike." Once this expectation is priced in early, the contraction in risk appetite won't be limited to just one sector. Here's a quick data snapshot: - Core CPI 2.6%, expected 2.5% - 10-year US Treasury yield 5.19% → 5.27% - BTC was around 83,700 before data, dropped 1.2% after - ETH was near 2,500 before data, structurally weak - Nasdaq futures -0.8%, gold -1.0% Momentum signals and risk signals need to be viewed separately. On momentum, BTC is just over 3% away from 80,000, with immediate support at 81,500; if rates don’t ease, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen alone. ETH has always been weaker than BTC, altcoins continue to bleed; this is not rotation, it’s retreat. On risk, the real thunder is not tonight’s drop, but "another[486 million USD evaporated in one hour, bulls got carried away again, ETH is worse off than BTC]
In one hour, long positions liquidated 465 million USD, accounting for over 95%, showing how crowded the short-term bulls were. More strikingly, $ETH liquidations reached 201 million USD, far exceeding $BTC's 117 million USD. Although ETH's market cap is much smaller, leveraged players showed no restraint.
Liquidation does not mean all funds have fled. On October 13, the combined net inflow of BTC and ETH ETFs in the US stock spot market was about 200 million USD, indicating that selling pressure and spot buying may coexist.
Now we need to distinguish whether the price drop is due to a leveraged sell-off or if spot holdings are also continuously retreating.
Short-term traders should not rush to bottom-fish, nor assume the market is over just because longs were wiped out. Liquidations can clear out a batch of high-leverage positions but do not automatically create new buying demand. If open interest decreases and prices stabilize, it suggests deleveraging may be nearing its end; if rebounds lack volume and spot outflows continue, then this 486 million USD might not be the last round.Oh my god, the short position made a killing today, but I don't want to take profits yet.
I think it will still drop today, but I also want to open a long position to catch a rebound wave, just a small long position as a prediction.
This CPI is indeed intense because it makes the market worry again: high interest rates will continue, and there might even be more rate hikes. The leverage in the crypto space amplifies this impact.
The transmission process is: inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike concerns intensify → USD and US Treasury yields rise → funds reduce risk positions. Last night the dollar rose, and US stocks were under pressure, so this round of decline has obvious macro resonance. The rise in rate hike expectations doesn't mean hikes are certain yet, but funds will withdraw in advance.
The crypto market was already adjusting, and CPI just stepped on it again.
BTC:
Focus on whether the rebound can recover the level broken in this drop. If it rallies but then gets pushed back, the lows might be tested again. Only if it recovers and holds on the pullback will I reduce my bearish stance.
ETH:
Watch 2400 above first, then the previously broken 2500 area. If the rebound can't hold above 2400, be wary of another dip; don't assume the bottom is in just because the price is cheap.
SOL: I pay more attention to its strength relative to BTC. If BTC is sideways but SOL keeps hitting new lows, it shows weak support. Only if it recovers losses first is it worth reevaluating. I won't turn bullish just based on one rebound.
My direction remains bearish, but I allow for rebounds in operation. Still continuing to short BTC? ⚠️ The price has already reached the strong support at 80500, the bears' strength is exhausted, and the target for this rebound is 84800!
$BTC hit an intraday low of 80228.2, close to the key support area at 80500. The selling pressure has clearly weakened, and the bears lack the momentum to continue their attack. The 4-hour KDJ indicator's J value is only 1.9, entering a deep oversold zone, indicating a strong need for a corrective rebound.
This sharp drop is mostly a leverage cleanup; after continuous declines, the buying support below is accumulating strength. Once the support holds, the market will start to rebound, aiming for the 84800 target.
In terms of operation, do not blindly continue shorting; it is not recommended to add to short positions. Focus closely on the 80500 support—if it holds, expect a rebound; if it breaks down effectively, adjust your strategy accordingly. #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight's PPI faces another test $BTC 1-hour long liquidation reached $118 million Total 1-hour long liquidation reached $464 million Beware of bull traps
All three metrics declined within 5 minutes, indicating that bulls are actively conceding during the downtrend rather than bottom-fishing and adding positions.
Long-short ratio:
Binance/OKX account long-short ratio is 1.79~1.79, large account holder ratio is 1.87 — long positions are nearly 1.8 times the short positions, with retail and large holders strongly aligned on the bullish side.
Large account holder ratio 1.8653 > position ratio 1.504, meaning shorts among large holders have heavier average positions — smart money is using the rebound to set up shorts or hedge.
$ETH $ZEC #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight's PPI faces another test #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 台积电今天发财报，结果盘前先跌2%。
现在425，从484的高点已经跌了12%。MA5、MA10、MA20全在头上压着，跟BTC一个德行。
Q3营收涨50%是明牌，上周就知道了。市场现在就赌一件事：毛利率能不能撑在67%以上。Level 8 Gale｜Asia-Pacific Market Storm Hits! Japanese and Korean Stock Markets Plunge Collectively, Korean Stocks Plummet Nearly 8% Intraday, Nikkei 225 Drops Over 4%, Crypto Market Begins to Follow with Volatility 📉
The aftershocks of the hawkish CPI overnight continue to spread, with risk assets in the Asia-Pacific opening session collectively stampeding: Korean stocks plunged nearly 8% intraday triggering a circuit breaker, Nikkei 225 index fell over 4%, and global panic sentiment quickly transmitted.
Today's market changes:
When the CPI was released the previous night, crypto managed to hold at low levels, with the bears venting and the decline narrowing; but after this wave of panic spread in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, the crypto market was also dragged down by sentiment, and the market began to show back-and-forth oscillations, no longer simply resisting declines.
However, it is worth noting: although volatility has increased, SOL and ETH have not yet effectively broken below previous key lows, and the lower support is still being contested.
The main focus remains on US Treasury yields; as long as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the pressure on global risk assets will not disappear. With significant turmoil in external markets, do not blindly heavily bet on the bottom. It's better to earn less but keep discipline. In a market with intensified volatility, prioritize waiting for stabilization confirmation signals, and enter with small positions to avoid heartache.
#US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure
$SKHY fell 6% intraday and then dropped another 3.86% after hours. It has lost 30% over 7 trading days. My view on memory stocks has always been as a mid-term target. As long as AI demand continues to rise, memory stocks won’t have major problems. But memory stocks also have their own cyclicality.
This cycle is like the "pig cycle": when pork prices are high, more people raise pigs; after supply increases, pork prices fall; the price drop leads to fewer pig farmers, supply decreases, and pork prices rise again, continuing the cycle. Memory is the same. Recently, memory manufacturers have been expanding production, and Chinese manufacturers like Changxin have also joined the competition. It’s foreseeable that global memory capacity will increase. Whether prices can hold depends on whether AI demand growth outpaces capacity growth. If after expansion memory is still in shortage, memory stocks can keep performing well. Otherwise, they will inevitably enter a down cycle.
If you still hold positions now, you can wait for the November earnings report. If there’s a rebound, you can reduce your holdings appropriately to give yourself some room.
Also, watch less Douyin. Storage has shifted from "storage is king" last month to "storage is doomed" these days. If you have weak self-control, watch less of the emotional expressions.$BTC 行情｜CPI 落地后的第一刀
美国 9 月 CPI 全线超预期：整体同比 3.7%（预期 3.6%），核心环比 0.3%（预期 0.2%）、同比 2.6%。汽油单月暴涨 9.1% 只是表象，住房涨 0.4%、二手车机票医疗齐涨，说明涨价已从能源扩散——"只是能源扰动"的说法站不住了。
盘面：数据一出 BTC 五分钟跌 1%，从 83,350 一路失守 83,000、82,000，最低 81,926，收 81,830（-1.61%）。今晨维持 81,600–82,000 弱势震荡，24 小时跌约 2%。黄金跌 1.5%、白银暴跌 6%、纳指跌 2%，美元指数冲 18 个月新高，10 年美债盘中破 5.3%——这是全风险资产的同步杀估值，不是币圈单独利空。
关键：10 月加息押注从 22% 飙至 45%，戴利称"很可能再加"。
建议：81,900–81,600 是生死线，日线收破则看 80,365；反弹需重回 84,245 才算修复。明晚 PPI 是第二只靴子，别急着抄底。
$ETH $ZEC
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
Q3 revenue is clear, the real battle is this afternoon
Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, up 50.9% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs, and even exceeded the company's own guidance (actual about $46.7 billion vs. guidance upper limit of $45.8 billion).
But revenue is just the first half. The real suspense lies in the gross margin: Q3 guidance is 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%—the 2nm ramp-up is expected to dilute by 3-4 points. Whether net profit can outpace revenue growth depends on this.
There is a conference call at 2 PM today, focusing on three points: gross margin level, Q4 guidance, and capex (whether the $60-64 billion will be raised again).
A bit of cold water: the stock price just hit a historic high, and the revenue beat is likely already priced in. The decisive factor this afternoon is not revenue, but whether the profit margin can withstand the 2nm ramp-up.
Withstand = truly beat expectations; fail to withstand = all good news priced in.
This is not investment advice, results will be revealed this afternoon. CPI 利空已經明牌了，為什麼我反而開始注意 BTC 的反彈??
昨天通膨數據超出預期BTC跟著下殺 市場又開始擔心接下來會不會繼續跌。
但我覺得現在有個問題比CPI數字更重要。
當大家都知道是利空的時候幣圈常常出現一種情況消息明明很差，價格卻沒有繼續破底甚至開始反彈。
這不代表利空消失 而是市場可能早就提前反映了一部分。
所以接下來我會特別留意幾個訊號!
空單回補帶動價格上漲 現貨成交量跟上反彈的可信度就會提高。
能不能止跌?
如果BTC回穩ETH$卻繼續走弱代表市場可能還是不願意承擔太多風險。
OI 降下來價格能不能守住?
如果大量槓桿已經被清洗 價格卻沒有再破底反而是值得觀察的訊號。
相反地如果價格繼續跌OI 又快速增加，就得小心新的槓桿部位正在累積。
我現在比較在意的不是猜 BTC 明天漲跌，而是這次利空究竟讓市場變得更脆弱，還是已經清掉一部分過熱的槓桿。
有時候真正的機會不是在利多公布時 而是在利空出來後，市場卻跌不下去的時候!
你們覺得 BTC 這次是準備止跌，還是反彈之後還有下一波呢?#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 $BTC $ETH $OKB #TSMCOct15Earnings The revenue of 1.49 trillion is just an announced figure, look at these three things in the earnings report on Thursday
TSMC's revenue in Q3 reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of +50%, a historic record — but this was already announced last week. The real highlight in the earnings report on October 15 is these three things below.
First, the gross profit margin. The guidance is between 65%-67%, while it was 67.7% in Q2. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the entire market is betting on the upper limit Conclusion first: Whether it can hold depends on $2,400, but today it fell harder than BTC, making it one of the weakest major coins. ETH dropped from $2,508 yesterday to a low of $2,401, closing at $2,423, a single-day decline of -3.41%, with a trading volume of $297 million. CPI was higher than expected, and high Beta assets fell more sharply; ETH is a typical example—it fell 3.4%, while BTC only fell 2.1%. Look at the structure. Spot price is $2,423, perpetual contracts are aligned, no de-peg. Open interest is about $1.53 billion; funding rate is +0.0087%, slightly positive. Note this detail—price fell but the funding rate is still positive, indicating bulls have not given up yet. If it continues to fall, this part of the leverage has room to be cleared, so watch out for subsequent deleveraging. Look at the position. Currently at $2,423, it has broken below the 7-day moving average ($2,491), 14-day moving average ($2,566), 30-day moving average ($2,608), and 60-day moving average ($2,512)—all four moving averages broken. The 14-day low is $2,401 (yesterday's low), and the 30-day low is $2,358. In other words, it is standing on the previous low of $2,401, which is the short-term lifeline. Market cap is $295.7 billion, ranked 2nd. ETH's DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA fundamentals remain, providing mid-term support. But the short-term structure has clearly weakened. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35%) break below After the CPI release, gold dropped 1.6%, silver fell 3.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.72%. Bitcoin only fell 1.5%, roughly the same as gold.
Gold's market cap is 28.7 trillion, silver's is 3.2 trillion, and Bitcoin's is only 1.7 trillion. Its market cap is just one-seventeenth of gold's and half of silver's, yet it didn't fall as sharply as they did.
Small-cap assets have resilience comparable to gold. This toughness is indeed something.$BTC 今天就看一条线：$81,500
$BTC 现在 $81,345，$ETH $2,370。昨天 CPI 3.7% 超预期的余震还没散，10 月加息概率从 22% 跳到了 49%，宏观逆风摆在那。但 $BTC正好坐在美国现货 ETF 持有人平均成本线 $81,500 上，这个位置已经撑住两次反弹了。
资金面也在讲同一个故事：上周 ETF 净流出 $6.79 亿，创 6 月底以来最大；但周二有报道称 IBIT 和 FBTC 回流了约 $1.76 亿（信源未具名，待核实）。跌的时候有人跑，回来的时候有人接。
$81,500 守得住，今天还有得打，反弹先看 $84,000 一带；小时收盘跌破 $81,500，直接看 $77,500。逆风没散之前，反弹不追高。Take profit at 2335 was pierced in a second, this short on ETH got smoked
Brothers, that spike just now, all shorts must have been smoked, right?
$BTC directly crashed to just above 80000, ETH was even more brutal, dropping straight down to 2310.
Here's my trade: I opened an ETH short at 2511, set take profit at 2335, and that one spike just pierced it, locking in 176 points without hesitation.
Honestly, I was sure it would drop this round, but I didn’t expect it to fall so fast and decisively.
The logic is simple: last night core CPI was 0.3%, overall 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, turning the rate cut scenario into a rate hike on the spot. CME shows at least two hikes before the end of January 2027 with a 73.7% probability, October hike probability jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, and the chance of no change dropped to just 1.2%. Before the data, people were shouting "bad news is priced in, full position bottom fishing," but overnight all that became fuel. BTC at 84000 was the bulls’ last trap to lure buyers.
You can check my post from yesterday, I kept saying don’t chase longs before the data, the rebound is just giving shorts some room, once the macro trend reverses, the stampede is faster than anyone.
Brothers who caught this wave, drop a comment to share your wins, let me see how many got smoked.
If you missed it, don’t worry, there will be rebounds during the rate hike cycle, opportunities won’t be just this once. But remember, don’t catch the first spike like a flying knife.
The above is just market observation, not trading advice.
#US CPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight How do whales operate? Starting from this precise ETH long position to closing after the CPI
A whale opened a long position of 20,000 ETH at about $1936 on August 19, holding for over 56 days, with a peak unrealized profit of about $17 million, finally closing the position after a pullback triggered by a hotter-than-expected CPI, locking in about $8.93 million in profit.
This typical whale operation is actually a true trading bible behind it:
· Positioning early at low levels rather than chasing highs;
· Mid-term holding, able to withstand large drawdowns in unrealized profits;
· Using clear macro events (CPI) as exit signals, rather than stubbornly holding to target prices;
· Prioritizing locking in certain profits, not chasing the perfect selling point.
Yesterday's CPI was indeed a bit of a surprise,
Year-on-year 3.7% higher than expected, pushing up US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations,
BTC fell from nearly 84,000 to around 81,500, ETH dropped to the 2410–2430 range, with increased long liquidations.
My judgment:
$BTC support at 81,000–80,500, if broken may look toward 80,000;
Resistance at 82,500–83,000, strong resistance at 84,000.
$ETH support at 2380–2400, if broken may test 2350;
Resistance at 2480–2500, strong resistance at 2550.
Short-term macro still dominates, whales choose to take profits rather than continue to bet on a rebound, reflecting risk control priority.
Watch subsequent inflation data and Fed statements. #USCPI exceeds expectations rising to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test Good morning, the crypto market today is not a "rollercoaster of sharp rises and falls," but more like institutions rearranging the table, gamblers exchanging chips, and regulators tightening access controls. 1. Market overview: BTC hasn't collapsed, ETH is a bit tired BTC is grinding in the 77,000–78,000 range, the fear and greed index has dropped back to "neutral to slightly cold," and the options market is not very excited in the short term. ETH is weak in following the rise and even fell compared to the previous period; the market no longer trusts the old script of "ETH will soon surge to previous highs," focusing more on whether staking income and L2 fees can support the valuation. Total market cap is about 2.6 trillion USD, with trading volume declining compared to the previous period, indicating this is not a bull frenzy but a selective washout. 2. Regulation: Licenses abroad, source blocked domestically China continues to clamp down on virtual currencies and RWA tokenization as illegal financial risks: currency exchange, matching, pricing, token financing, and domestic RWA intermediaries all cross red lines; issuing RMB stablecoins recklessly is also forbidden. Overseas, regulation is more about "incorporation": Thailand allows BTC and ETH spot ETFs to trade on exchanges starting 10/16; the UK is revising payment rules to accommodate tokenized deposits; Singapore's OCBC issues tokenized gold on ETH/Solana; Russia has passed the first reading of a crypto legalization framework. In short: the West is pushing crypto into "securities/funds/payment pipelines," while the East treats crypto as "money laundering and espionage funding risks" to be blocked. 3. Major industry events: Money flows to places "explainable to regulators" Tokenized gold/funds/government bonds are becoming attractive: Legal & General#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
TSMC's Q3 revenue surged 50% year-over-year to a record high, but the market did not rally. The core focus is not on the realized revenue but on profitability and future guidance.
The company provided a Q3 gross margin guidance of 65%-67%, down from 67.7% in Q2 quarter-over-quarter. The main pressure comes from increased capital expenditures due to capacity expansion. The strong revenue growth is driven by AI foundry orders, but expansion costs will erode profits.
The current 2% stock price decline reflects a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario, as the revenue upside has already been priced in. The real highlights of the earnings report are: first, whether the actual gross margin is near the upper or lower end of the range; second, the Q4 revenue guidance to verify if AI demand can continue; third, whether capital expenditures will be further increased.
If the gross margin approaches 67%, Q4 guidance is strong, and spending is controllable, the stock price is expected to recover; conversely, if it nears the 65% lower limit, guidance is weak, and spending surges, the stock will remain under pressure. The earnings report can also indirectly confirm the AI industry chain's market sentiment.$UNI #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Uniswap V4 major upgrade explained
Uniswap officially launches a new ETH/USDC trading pool equipped with VolatilePair Hook, achieving differentiated fees for buying and selling, breaking the traditional DEX uniform fee model.
Traditional AMM mechanisms have fixed fees; in extreme market conditions, arbitrage bots quickly capture volatility profits, while liquidity providers continuously bear impermanent loss, severely diluting returns.
Relying on V4 programmable Hook smart contracts, the new pool can identify market trends in real time: low fees for trend-following trades, dynamic fees added for large counter-trend impact trades, effectively raising the cost of reverse arbitrage bots and suppressing high-frequency malicious arbitrage.
The core of this upgrade is to reshape the on-chain trading profit structure, protect LP returns, reduce impermanent loss, and retain the value of market volatility within the ecosystem.
This is also a key implementation of the Uniswap V4 programmable ecosystem, marking the DEX's transition from basic token swaps to a new stage of on-chain finance that is intelligent, risk-controllable, and strategy-customizable.#TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's Q3 revenue explodes, but October 15 is the real test
1.49 trillion TWD, a 50% year-over-year growth, a historic record high — TSMC's Q3 revenue was finalized early and exceeded the highest forecast. But this figure no longer matters; market expectations have been pushed very high, and what management says in the legal meeting will determine whether the stock price rises or falls.
Four questions decide the direction
$TSM #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
Latest data shows TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan dollars, which if realized would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI boom, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises full-year revenue growth guidance and increases capital expenditure.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is not yet finalized, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution against all good news being priced in
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Major players' self-developed chips still rely on its technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend. #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance yet to be revealed
Actually, nowadays it's becoming more common that even with impressive earnings reports, the market doesn't buy in and prices fall. The main reasons are, first, the good news has already been fully priced in, because before this earnings report was released, everyone had already predicted that TSMC's performance would be excellent, after all, it still dominates the market, responsible for manufacturing many chips. Currently, there is no second competitor who can challenge it. The second reason is the overall semiconductor sector's heavy decline, especially Samsung and SK Hynix; their significant drops also affect TSMC's trend. So this time, TSMC is still worth considering for buying on dips. The economic crisis is expected to come earliest in the second half of 2027, so there is roughly half a year to a year left to operate.TSMC's just released Q3 report, if you only look at the record-high revenue and net profit, might not feel surprising to seasoned market watchers; it's basically that AI computing demand is still tearing through capacity on the main board.
Actually, despite the cost overruns from building overseas fabs and the "money-eating" pressure from early 2nm capacity ramp-up, the gross margin still manages to head straight toward the guidance ceiling. This shows that advanced process technology gives downstream chip giants more bargaining power than most imagine.
Simply put, whether it's Nvidia or Apple, there is no second choice. If your computing chip wants to crush competitors on power efficiency, you have to honestly pay TSMC the toll.
Many worry that management's heavy capital expenditure will drag down short-term cash flow and margins, but I see this as the most hardcore moat strategy. In the wafer foundry industry, which is extremely asset-heavy and technology-barrier intense, the essence of counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical massive capacity expansion is to use huge capital to forge absolute monopoly on the next generation node.
Wall Street's buy rating logic is actually simple: they aren't focused on one or two quarters' depreciation cost fluctuations, but on who will be the true winner taking the most certain profits in the AI infrastructure buildout wave.
As long as the downstream computing narrative doesn't completely fade, TSMC's logic of locking downstream pricing power through process leadership won't change. Cost pressure is real, but so is the ability to transfer costs through pricing power.
#TSMCQ3RevenueRecordHigh, profitability performance to be revealed CPI data released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, core inflation rose simultaneously, and the Fed's excuse of "only energy price increases" was completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, Bitcoin $BTC directly fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tightening macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
Ethereum $ETH is the worst hit; it was already the weakest among the three. ETF continues to bleed, staking yields can't keep up with US Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest. Today it continued to decline, and it’s estimated to be hard to stabilize in the short term.
Gold $XAUT also plunged, spot gold dropped nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, and the dollar and US Treasury yields rose together. Non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation funds are still flowing in, and central banks have not stopped. The biggest difference between gold and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin’s buyers are on-chain whales, while gold’s buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The latter’s capital attributes and patience are on a completely different level.
Hold Bitcoin and Ethereum spot positions firmly, unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than Bitcoin. #USCPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test @OKX星球 TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a record high, but the real focus might be on Q4
TSMC is about to release its full Q3 financial report.
Based on previously released monthly data, Q3 revenue is approximately 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a new historical high.
However, for investors, record revenue is only the first step; what truly matters is whether this performance can continue to support the market's optimistic expectations for the AI industry chain.
I believe there are three key points to watch going forward:
1️⃣ Can the gross margin be maintained at a high level?
The market is focusing on a gross margin guidance of about 65%–67%. If revenue continues to grow but gross margin declines significantly, further observation is needed on how advanced process expansion, capital expenditures, and cost changes impact profitability.
2️⃣ Can the Q4 performance guidance exceed expectations?
Stock prices trade not only on past performance but also on future growth expectations.
When the market has fully priced in AI demand growth, simply delivering a strong financial report may not be enough to push the stock price higher. What really matters is whether the company's outlook is more optimistic than market expectations.
3️⃣ Can AI demand translate into sustained profit growth?
The long-term logic of the AI industry remains worth attention, but investors also need to distinguish two issues: whether AI demand truly exists and whether the current stock price has already fully reflected this growth.
A good company is not necessarily always a good price.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability performance to be revealed #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 2026 revenue reached a historic high of 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 46.7 billion USD), up 51% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations.
The core driver is AI high-performance computing orders, with 5nm/3nm advanced processes running at full capacity, supported by a rebound in Apple's iPhone business, maintaining a high gross margin.
⚠️ Risks: Performance is highly tied to the AI capital expenditure cycle; US factory construction increases costs, with uncertainties in geopolitical and industry competition.
Focus on the upcoming Q4 performance guidance; impressive financial results do not necessarily mean the stock price will rise, as positive news is easily priced in and may pull back. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance yet to be revealed. TSMC released its earnings today, but the stock fell 2% pre-market.
It has now dropped 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, exactly like BTC.
The 50% increase in Q3 revenue was expected, known since last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.
Last night CPI just exploded, and tonight there are PPI and retail data. Reporting earnings at such a time, even if the numbers look good, if the broader market continues to fall, TSMC won’t be able to hold up.
Previously, the options market bet on a post-earnings volatility of ±5%, but the past four times averaged only 2.87%. Expectations are maxed out; at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in"? If guidance is a bit softer, the stock price will still be hammered.