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Core CPI at 2.6%, 0.1 points higher than expected
Core CPI came out at 2.6%.
The expectation was originally 2.5%.
How this number is calculated:
It excludes oil prices and vegetable prices.
What remains are rent, services, and such.
This part can't come down, so interest rates can't come down.
Who fears this number the most:
Project teams fear it the most.
If interest rates don't ease, new money won't flow into altcoins.
$ETH fell first because it is closest to the funds.
Looking further down the line.
$BTC is still more than 3% away from 80,000.
US Treasury yields have already risen to 5.27%.
Money is flowing into bonds, not into coins.
Altcoins are being drained, not because someone is targeting anyone.
It's because the faucet hasn't been turned on.
#StandardChartered opens BTC and ETH trading, expanding banking crypto business
#$ETH $BTC # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
TSMC's Q3 earnings in one sentence: AI computing power demand pushes the foundry leader to new heights, advanced processes become an absolute cash machine.
Explosive performance: Revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-on-year; net profit of 763.1 billion, up 68.7% year-on-year, profit growth outpaces revenue — high value-added capacity fully utilized, profitability efficiency hits a new high.
Structural disruption: Advanced processes (7nm and below) account for 79% of wafer revenue, 2nm just started mass production and already takes 8% share. Traditional mature processes are squeezed to the sidelines, technological barriers directly translate into pricing power.
Underlying logic: Growth almost entirely driven by AI chips. Nvidia, AMD, and cloud providers' self-developed ASICs are all lined up on TSMC's production lines; it is the most guaranteed winner selling "shovels" in this AI wave.
Outlook:
• For the industry: Confirms that AI hardware demand remains high, supporting the logic of rising equipment/test/material supply chains;
• For TSMC: 2nm ramp-up plus AI orders sustain short- to mid-term high prosperity;
• Risks: Huge capital expenditure, geopolitical issues, and capacity allocation are long-term variables.
Investment perspective: This is a "prosperity confirmation," not "expectation speculation," but the stock price already includes optimistic expectations, so chasing highs depends on your own position and risk tolerance. #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展
$SOL 这盘面有个地方很别扭。
上了大交易所的热搜，讨论度拉满，结果价格是从近一周的低位往下砸，二十几小时掉五个点。热度是热度，盘面是盘面，这两件事现在完全是分家的。
大家嗨的点是它能在国内露脸、能挂广告、还有马上要上的那套新共识升级，号称把交易确认压到瞬发级别。听着都挺硬。但你看价格——现货的人在跑，量却跟平常差不多，也就是说砸盘根本不需要多少量就能砸下来，下面没人接。
这就是我说的反常：一件“利好”的事配一个“下跌”的样子，说明市场早把这利好消化完了，现在出来买的是接盘的，不是吃肉的。$SOL September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, with both core annual and monthly rates exceeding expectations — this second-level signal is more alarming than the headline itself. The high oil prices pushing up overall CPI is still predictable, but core inflation excluding energy and food continues to rise month-on-month, indicating that price pressures on services like housing and healthcare have not eased. $BTC dropped sharply with a vertical bearish candle the moment the data was released; bulls tried to bottom-fish but were repeatedly crushed by selling pressure, the bearish candle dragging on endlessly like an old lady going downstairs. $ZEC was not spared either. Interestingly, $NEAR holders are still holding firm, and bulls seem not to have given up, clearly engaging in a direct confrontation with short-term funds. Short-term investors who bottomed SOXL at 120 are now stuck at 180 dollars; the losses from 3x leverage in a volatile market are not to be underestimated, as leveraged ETFs are inherently unsuitable for long-term holding. The conclusion remains unchanged: this is still a fake bull market, not a real one. Several FOMC members previously released dovish signals, but in the face of this CPI report, it is difficult to maintain them; whether to continue raising rates in October will directly depend on the stickiness of core inflation. The market had already risen ahead of the data, indicating expectations were once optimistic, but the surprise in the core components is the real killer. If the core monthly rate does not fall subsequently, the rebound of $BTC and $ETH will most likely still be suppressed, and high-beta assets like $SOL will also struggle to fare well. There is only one confirming signal: a substantial cooling of core inflation month-on-month; otherwise, every rebound will just be a battlefield for short-term speculation. #USCPI3.7%PPII#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 🚗 | Before Tesla's earnings report, I am more focused on whether the profit margin can recover
Currently holding $TSLA, I have been closely watching Tesla's fundamental changes recently.
Q3 vehicle deliveries reached 486,532 units, exceeding market expectations, but still down about 2.1% year-over-year. I think this data releases an important signal: Tesla's demand remains resilient, but sales growth does not necessarily mean profitability improves in tandem. PONS just said yesterday that the data rebounded, but I see the data shrank back a bit today.
Compared to October 12 and October 13, the latest daily ring ratios of platform fees and protocol income decreased by 30.83% and 35.98%, respectively.
With data performing so poorly, why did the coin price rise yesterday? I think it was more driven by news.
Yesterday, there was a rumor that Robinhood is preparing $100 million to support Robinhood Chain, which caused many ecosystem coins to take off. Whether it's true or not, I don't know, but quite a few. Crypto media picked it up again, which indeed stimulated the market.
But to be honest, improving the core data is the key. You can't rely on news to drive buying every time; if it happens too often, the effect diminishes. It's like the boy who cried wolf, and the truth will eventually be revealed.
The effect was so good yesterday that I guess the data on the 14th might improve a bit. The market is too bad now, the overall market is like this, let alone any meme coins.兄弟们，机会来了！
2014年，美国中期选举后71天，比特币触底，
2018年，美国中期选举后39天，比特币触底，
2022年，美国中期选举后13天，比特币触底，
2026年？#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 2026年10月15日，台积电交出了一份堪称教科书级别的季度答卷：Q3营收1.494万亿新台币，同比增长50.9%；净利润7631亿新台币（约合235亿美元），同比大增69%，不仅远超市场预期的7463亿新台币，更创下公司成立以来单季盈利历史新高。这也是台积电连续第六个季度刷新盈利纪录。 更值得注意的是盈利质量。此前市场最大的担忧在于，2纳米制程的加速爬坡会带来3-4个百分点的毛利率稀释。然而实际数据显示，Q3毛利率达66.4%，稳稳落在公司指引区间65%-67%的中上沿；营业利润率58.7%，甚至超出了56%-58%的指引上限。这意味着台积电用产品组合的优化和定价能力，完全消化了新制程量产初期的成本压力。 从收入结构看，2纳米制程已贡献晶圆收入的8%，3纳米占比33%，先进制程合计占比超过40%。在AI芯片需求的狂飙突进下，台积电最尖端、毛利率最高的产能，正在被客户以近乎"抢购"的方式填满。If they beat but Q4 guidance is flat, this could be a dead-cat bounce. If advertising remains below $700 million per quarter, the narrative of the "next phase of growth from advertising" will be hard for investors to believe.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins There are several major data releases tonight
Volatility is expected to be high in the evening
Last night, the US stock market already took a big hit
At 20:30 tonight, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will be released together
What is the market most afraid of now?
The economy is weak, but inflation won't come down
PPI higher than expected is bearish for Bitcoin
But I think the biggest fear tonight is conflicting data
One positive, one negative
Bull and bear forces tugging back and forth
Bitcoin jumping up and down
Ending with a double whammy for bulls and bears
Especially now that the US stock market is already weak
It's hard for the crypto market to stay unaffected
$BTC $ETH $SOL 很多人看到Solana来上海办开发者大会，CZ（币安创始人）还发文捧场，就觉得这是要拉SOL的暗示。
实话讲，这更多是情绪利好，不是要拉盘的信号。本质是国内巡回生态建设，CZ捧场属圈子社交，非公开喊单。短期开盘或现脉冲，链上meme炒作升温，但“买传闻，卖事实”是铁律，聪明钱提前埋伏，利好落地反成止盈窗口，极易冲高回落。
最大变量仍在宏观。美国9月CPI升至3.7%超预期，核心通胀顽固，美债收益率居高不下，美联储降息预期持续降温，风险资产承压。BTC围绕8万关口博弈，大盘偏空下，SOL独木难支，热度难撑持续大涨。
技术面看，SOL前期高杠杆爆仓余波未平，上方套牢盘密集。短期情绪炒作勿追高，警惕利好兑现后的回调风险，轻仓防守，盯紧BTC大盘脸色。$BTC $ETH $ZEC Many small altcoins with market caps under tens of millions, like LYN with a circulating market cap of only 3 million, are still steadily declining. A major reason is Binance tightening leverage on altcoin contracts.
Market makers share one margin to operate multiple coins simultaneously. After the leverage cap is lowered, if the margin is insufficient, they can only withdraw liquidity. The order book thins out, and even a small sell order can trigger a sharp drop, making it impossible to find buyers to close positions.
The event on October 11 serves as a warning: in extreme market conditions, market makers prioritize protecting BTC and ETH, draining liquidity from small coins, causing their prices to free fall.
Now Binance is preemptively reducing leverage, which seems to prevent a crash, but the risk for small coins with market caps of a few million increases. If you hold such coins, don’t just watch the price direction; focus on liquidity and be sure to set stop-losses.#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high
PPI and CPI appear back-to-back, leaving the Fed with no buffer these days. The overall inflation rebound has been pre-anticipated by the market; the real uncertainty is whether core inflation can drop month-on-month.
No rush to bet on direction yet. The bigger question is: if inflation pressure eases, where will the follow-up funds come from?
On October 12, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $65.4 million and $85.4 million respectively. Fund outflows are not a bearish verdict, but they add obstacles to the rebound—without net inflows, price rises lack spot buying support.
BTC 83,356, ETH 2,505, SOL 107.41. Tonight, only three things are confirmed:
1. Whether core CPI is weaker than expected. This is the first gate for risk appetite.
2. After BTC rallies, whether ETH and SOL can keep up. If their exchange rates against BTC remain unrepaired, BTC’s solo strength looks more like a temporary fund cluster rather than a spread of risk appetite.
3. Whether it can hold steady after the initial pulse. Data controls the first jump; follow-through controls sustainability. A spike followed by a retreat means insufficient chasing orders; a pullback with support and higher lows looks like a reversal.
So tonight, no guessing on rise or fall, just verification. The quality of ETH and SOL’s follow-through is a better indicator of risk appetite returning than BTC’s solo charge.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CPI 3.7%, shattering the illusion of a "pause in rate hikes"
On October 14, the US September CPI data was released: a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, also exceeding expectations.
Do you understand the weight of this number?
Before this, the market logic was "inflation is cooling down, the Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes." The probability of a rate hike in October was once suppressed to around 20%. Bears did not dare to heavily short under this logic, while bulls dared to chase higher.
Then the CPI slapped everyone.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in October quickly rebounded from around 20%, and the probability of a rate hike in December exceeded 80%. Bitcoin fell directly from around 84,000 to below 82,000.
What’s more fatal is that this is not an isolated event. The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes showed that 9 out of 18 members believe there will be another rate hike within the year. Fed official Waller further quantified expectations on October 8: market pricing shows an 85% probability of at least one rate hike by December, and nearly 80% probability of at least two rate hikes before March 2027.
Bitcoin falling from 84,000 to 80,230 is not a "correction." It is the market repricing the fact that "rate hikes will not stop."
$BTC $ETH $SOL #USCPIexceedsexpectationsrises3.7%,TonightPPIfacesatestagain #TSMCQ3netprofitexceedsexpectations,profitreacheshistoricalhigh #Netflixgrowthmayslow,advertisingbusinessbecomesnewfocus $WAL won't drop anytime soon; smart money shorts have a cost around 0.52, making shorting too expensive. Just paying the fees alone won't crash the market. Let's wait and see if the fees drop before considering shorting again. Overinvest: Risk excess capacity, escalating depreciation, and poor returns on invested capital.
Monetize too slowly: Allow infrastructure costs to hit cash flow long before new AI revenue becomes material.
The recent reporting strengthens this interpretation: Zuckerberg reportedly acknowledged that Meta was prepared to invest up to $200 billion despite uncertainty about whether its AI initiative would succeed. #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook Samsung is down 6% and SK Hynix 7% pre-market, and US memory stocks slid overnight. Just days ago, Micron's CEO touted $150B in locked-in long-term orders and tighter supply for the next two years. Great story, yet the price dropped in a day.
My advice to leveraged traders: when narrative and price diverge, trust price. If the AI hardware chain starts splitting, risk-off will hit high-beta assets like $BTC fast. Don't wait to get hit; react early.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins ##TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC is going to release its latest earnings report this Thursday✨
Actually, a 50% year-over-year revenue growth is nothing new; the market already got preliminary data last week making this clear. What really holds the market's pulse are three key numbers hidden in the earnings report: gross margin, full-year performance guidance, and next year's capital expenditure.
TSMC's preset range for Q3 gross margin is 65%-67%, but last quarter's gross margin even touched a high of #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
兄弟们，台积电Q3财报刚出炉，老规矩，不看热闹看门道。
单季净利润7630亿新台币，同比暴增68.7%，直接把市场预期的7463亿甩在身后，连续第六个季度刷新纪录。3nm制程扛了33%的晶圆营收，2nm刚量产就贡献了8%，这爬坡速度比预期快太多了。先进制程占了总收入的79%，说白了，全球AI算力订单正在疯狂往台积电产线上砸。
这事跟咱们币圈有毛关系？关系大着呢。这两天比特币因CPI数据不及预期，一度砸到80230美元，一小时全网爆仓4.84亿美金，多单占了4.64亿。但另一头，比特币矿企正在加速把算力合同往AI和HPC方向切，累计合同规模约1000亿美元。矿工不挖币了改卖算力给AI公司，Genesis Digital Assets、IREN这些都在转，这不是小趋势。
资金面上，Wintermute最近的分析也印证了——主流币承压的时候，钱没离场，是从DeFi挪到了AI相关代币，NEAR被当成典型受益标的。AI和加密现在吃的是同一锅算力饭，英伟达要芯片，台积电造芯片，矿企供电力和场地，咱们交易的代币在中间承接资金轮动。80000保卫战打响，48亿先撤了😱
看了一下BTC，81000没守住，下午直接破了。
ETH（-5.94%），"2400破了看2350"只差一口气。
SOL（-4.83%），三兄弟今天全绿，一个比一个惨。
钱的事最有说头。
24小时，BTC合约跑了18.49亿，现货跑了4.52亿，加起来23亿。
ETH更惨，合约19.73亿，现货5.70亿，加起来25.43亿。
两兄弟合计48亿多，"先跑为敬"成了主流。
但最近1小时有意思。
BTC合约1小时净流入2107万，ETH合约净流入1801万。
费率这边，BTC 0.0075%，比中午还高。破了81000，多头还在加价付钱扛单。ETH费率0.0022%，离转负只差临门一脚。
我的看法就两句。
①开奖前跑钱太正常，CPI偏鹰加今晚20:30悬着，谁都怕加息重定价。
②1小时回流是赌"利空出尽"的第一批人，仓位不会重。
PPI真超预期的话，这批人就是明天的爆仓单📉
我现在只盯一个数：开奖后1小时资金流。
👉翻正，说明抄底的在加码，我跟着看反弹。
👉翻绿，连抄底的都认错，那80000大概率要见👀#TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.Over the past three days, XAUT has been rising, while xSKHY and xSNDK have been falling. This is not mysticism; it's the same money moving between two ends.
$XAUT is rising because safe-haven money is coming back. On the morning of October 15, gold prices broke through 4120~4150 consecutively, rising over 1% intraday, with XAUT following up to 4140. The US dollar index dropped by 0.42%, US Treasury yields fell, lowering the cost of holding gold; central banks purchased 63 tons of gold in September, the highest in nearly two years. But it is still 25% below the January ATH of 5505. This is a deep correction rebound, not a new high. 4100 is the bottom of this round.
$xSKHY is falling because the most crowded position in AI is deflating a bubble. ADR is reported at 138~139, down 9.5%~11% in 24 hours, KOSPI dropped 7%, triggering a sidecar. Four straws: Changxin 4F² breakthrough, Toshiba capacity expansion, HBM4 equipment delay, and $40 billion buyback ended early. Foreign investors have sold for 7 consecutive days. Demand is not bad; what’s bad is the valuation.
$xSNDK is falling with the same story, and SanDisk is even worse. Down 10.8% in a week, from the September 22 high of 1909 to the October 13 low of 1401, a 27% retracement. Even earnings beating expectations didn’t stop the sell-off.
XAUT’s rise means money is looking for a place to hide, while the other two fall because money is withdrawing from the most crowded spots. The industry logic hasn’t collapsed; what collapsed are valuations and positions. #GoldETFBigInflow, how safe-haven funds are reallocating TSMC’s revenue has already surpassed expectations, so what should investors focus on during Thursday’s earnings call?
The company previously reported Q3 revenue of around $46.7 billion, beating its own forecast of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. With revenue figures already out, the real focus of Thursday’s call shifts to the cost side of the business, profit margins, and how efficiently TSMC is turning strong demand into earnings.
#DailyOrbit #Apple's new CEO receives the first report card for iPhone 18, and this report card is quite controversial. First, cutting the standard version means actively giving up the volume market and relying on the high-end segment, narrowing the demand structure; second, the price increase results in limited perceived upgrade for ordinary users, channels have already started to diverge, some Pro models have broken below cost, only the Max and foldable models maintain a premium; third, the foldable iPhone Duo has high costs and expensive pricing, representing a long-term strategy that is unlikely to contribute to sales in the short term. CPI came out overnight, and something strange happened.
The US Treasury yield surged to 5.33% last night, then dropped straight back to 5.11% this morning. Money got cheaper, so BTC should have caught a breather.
But BTC didn’t rise; it kept falling, now at 81,000.
The key is how the US Treasury yield dropped.
Inflation fell, everyone thought no more rate hikes, so Treasuries went down, which is good—money dares to come out and play, and BTC follows up.
Today is not like that. Today the stock market crashed, and everyone got scared and fled to Treasuries. When money floods in, yields get pushed down.
Nasdaq fell 1.9% last night, the worst day since July. Asia continued to crash today; the South Korean stock market fell up to 8% intraday, Samsung and SK Hynix both dropped over 10%. The AI sector got smashed badly.
AI companies build data centers, mostly borrowing money. When rates rise, borrowing gets more expensive, and they are the first to buckle.
This time BTC wasn’t treated as a safe haven but sold off along with tech stocks. Those mining companies switching to AI computing power fell up to 13% last night.
So today’s drop in Treasuries is not good news for BTC; it shows the market is scared.
Oil hasn’t eased either. Brent is still around $105, and fighting broke out again near the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency is meeting in Paris today to discuss whether to release another 100 million barrels from emergency reserves. If they do, oil prices could ease a bit; that’s the only good news we can hope for right now.
I said before that if US Treasury yields fall back below 5.2%, it’s a signal for BTC to go up. The timing is right; BTC first looks at 83,200, then ETH at 2,410! $BTC $ETH US inflation data exceeded expectations, and Bitcoin directly fell below 81,000, with billions of dollars in liquidations hitting the market. AVAX, SEI, and INJ all followed the drop; none of these projects had internal issues. APT rose 51% over four weeks, but on-chain stablecoins shrank by 17.5%. The rally relies on sentiment rather than capital, and this structure won't hold for long. With macro pressure, rebounds are just brief escape windows.
I just opened the security booth window for some fresh air. A car came in, registered, and then I continued watching the market.
WAL current price is 0.0582, stuck above a previous dense zone. MACD shows a bearish crossover below zero, RSI peaked and is falling back, indicating weak short-term momentum. There is dense liquidation around 0.0571, which is a key support; breaking it would trigger a chain liquidation. Above, liquidation pressure at 0.06 is significantly reduced, and selling pressure is lighter. Short-term mainly sideways movement, but support below is clearer than resistance above.
Trading strategy: mainly short positions. Enter in batches between 0.0585 and 0.0592, take profit first target at 0.0572, second target at 0.0558. Stop loss at 0.0605; if price rises above this, admit the mistake and exit. Avoid long positions; consider catching a rebound only if 0.0571 truly holds, and keep position size light. In this market, staying alive is more important than making quick profits.
$WAL
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
@OKX Planet There are three magnets above the empty avatar, but the magnets may not necessarily hold the price 🌙 If it really surges, is it a short squeeze or another fakeout? Just finished watching the 12-hour liquidation chart, feeling a familiar slight tension. BTC, ETH, and SOL all have short positions stacked above, like three rubber bands stretched to the limit. - BTC: Around 84375.7, about 32.18 million U liquidations, +0.74% from current price - ETH: Around 2545.16, about 13.98 million U liquidations, +1.3% from current price - SOL: Around 108.85, about 2 million U liquidations, +1.03% from current price The numbers don’t look far, right? But from the perspective of cross-market linkage, I care more about three things. First, these three trigger points are almost squeezed into the same narrow range. This means that once risk appetite warms up, BTC will lead the way up, and the liquidations of ETH and SOL will resonate, causing short-term buying to be passively amplified, and altcoin sentiment will also relax. This is a bullish path. Second, but the resonance could also be reversed. If BTC first fakes a breakout then pulls back, the pressure above ETH and SOL will turn into a bull trap, and those chasing highs will become the next batch of fuel. Cross-market synchronous rallies require consistent expectations, and with macro data not yet released, this consistency is fragile. Third, what I’m really watching is whether the funding rates turn positive simultaneously and whether open interest continues to accumulate during the rally. If the price surges but funding rates aren’t hot and OI doesn’t increase, it’s likely a pulse, not a trend. Bearish biasChangxin said "the number of bare dies per wafer increases by at least 50%," but don't rewrite that as a 50% cost reduction yet.
I reviewed the company's original announcement for the G5 platform, and the footnote is very clear: the comparison is against their own fourth-generation technology platform, with the number of bare dies calculated based on 8Gb chips. It provides a specific process improvement metric, not a conclusion comparing costs with all competitors.
More bare dies per wafer indeed help spread costs. But how many qualified products can ultimately be sold still depends on yield, processing costs, and packaging/testing. The increase in bare dies and the cost reduction per sellable product are separated by a production process; you can't directly transfer the percentage.
In this round of memory stock fluctuations, both emotions seem too rushed to me. Seeing technological progress and immediately assuming old manufacturers' profits will be wiped out; or thinking new players have limited short-term shipments and can be ignored entirely. Competitive impact may first show in customer negotiations. Once buyers start seriously comparing alternatives, even if market share hasn't changed much, price negotiations can become tougher.
Regarding Changxin's progress, I am willing to take it seriously and hope discussions can be based on the same comparison benchmark. Later, I want to see evidence of yield for sellable products and customer deliveries. Jumping to rearrange global memory profits without even reading the footnotes in the technical announcement is a bit too hasty.
#SanDiskMicronDown, Changxin's technical progress draws attention #TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.$SNDK SanDisk, Hynix, Samsung, and all those messy storage chip makers, just short and be done with it.
Why are these chip makers definitely going to fall?
The main reason is that these companies keep shouting every day,
"Oh~ capacity is insufficient, inventory is low."
Let's put it this way, if this thing could make money long-term, these companies would have already expanded capacity and started competing on who sells more.
Anyone with money who doesn't make money is a fool, everyone knows that.
Now prices are sky-high, and when it comes to expansion, they can't say a word. It's obvious these manufacturers or the entire industry have a consensus.
This thing could crash at any time. Really expecting AI to become evergreen? The algorithms in the US are impressive, no doubt, but actual applications are basically zero, and adoption and utilization are far lower than in China, unless there's another breakthrough in high-end algorithms.
Otherwise, 95% of users are using the free version, just asking a question and that's it, at most letting it help you edit something, write a copy, fix a few images. The very few doing AI video—how much computing power can they really use?
The market is basically saturated now. Without any new technological breakthroughs, the market can head south anytime.
It's similar to the mining crash in 2022, but back then these manufacturers weren't so savvy. They expanded mining capacity wildly, ending up with a huge pile of inventory. After the mining crash, they were stuck with it, and prices fell all year, with flash memory prices dropping over 40%.
Now they're playing it smart: when the market is good, they raise prices hard but don't increase capacity. When the market saturates or crashes, they shrink back like turtles, waiting for the next technological breakthrough to raise prices again. So essentially, a guaranteed drop.#PalantirQ3Valuation #US CPI Surpasses Expectations to 3.7%, Tonight's PPI Faces Another Test
Last night, as the US inflation data was released, Bitcoin plunged directly from its high, causing tens of thousands of contracts to liquidate instantly! 😱
Right now, the market is focused on tonight's production-side data. CPI reflects whether everyday goods are getting more expensive, while PPI shows if factory production costs continue to rise.
If factory costs also rise tonight, US Treasury yields will likely struggle to fall, and Bitcoin at the 80,000 level will become the last critical support.
Conversely, if the data cools down, the market will have reason to believe this wave was just caused by oil prices, and funds might boldly flow back in.
Currently, $BTC has fallen from its high to around 80,000, with the market repeatedly testing this key support level. The price is stuck in the 80,000–81,000 range; if it breaks down, the next stop could be 78,000.
After tonight's data release, the direction will basically become clear. Whether it holds or breaks depends on how strong the PPI is.
$ETH $SOL
#TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
#Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus To be honest, in the short term, the market will most likely be a frustrating period of volatility rather than a sudden direct reversal and surge. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The root cause of this decline is still the US inflation data exceeding expectations. The market is starting to think that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, and even does not rule out further rate hikes. As US Treasury yields continue to rise, all high-risk assets come under pressure, with US tech stocks, storage, and cryptocurrencies all dropping together.
Let's first talk about US stocks, especially the storage sector we've been watching.
It had risen too much before, and the stock price had already priced in the AI benefits in advance. Now, investors have become very picky; if earnings reports are slightly below expectations, the stock is immediately sold off.
Like SanDisk, stuck at the 1500 resistance level for a long time, with many profit-taking positions waiting to be cashed out. Plus, Musk’s tweet supporting Micron made the market worry that SanDisk’s price increase might be too aggressive and lose customers, so bulls dare not push it up hard.
In the short term, storage stocks are unlikely to rally straight back to new highs; they will most likely fluctuate repeatedly, bouncing on good news but being pushed back down by macroeconomic negatives.
Now, let's talk about the crypto space, like ETH and BTC.
They are most sensitive to interest rates. As long as the market expects rates to remain high, funds are unwilling to stay in crypto.
Once the market goes down, leveraged positions will cascade liquidate, causing the drop to be much sharper than stocks. Even if there is a rebound in between, it looks more like a correction, making it difficult to immediately start a new bull market.
Going forward, focus on two things:
US Treasury yields and statements from US officials.
As long as Treasury yields continue to rise, it will be very difficult for risk assets to have a big rally.Bitcoin miners are about to face a difficulty adjustment.
Around October 16, the difficulty is expected to increase by 5.68%.
Sounds like not much.
But it has a more direct consequence: with the same hash power, the amount of money mined will decrease by 5.37%.
Here’s how the 5.37% comes about.
There’s something called hashprice, which means how much you can earn per unit of hash power per day.
Right now, that number is 39.77 USD.
When difficulty rises, the same machine mining for the same day will get fewer coins.
Income drops first.
The key is this number hasn’t deducted electricity costs yet.
So whether mining is truly profitable depends on two things: how much you earn and how much electricity costs.
Old miners with cheap electricity can still hold on.
New miners with expensive electricity are in danger.
Here’s a calculation:
For machines with efficiency of 20 joules per terahash, at 8 cents per kWh electricity price, electricity costs alone wipe out profits.
In other words, it’s not that mining less causes losses, but that electricity costs exceed mining revenue.
So why is the difficulty suddenly adjusting?
Bitcoin automatically adjusts difficulty every 2016 blocks, aiming for an average of one block every ten minutes.
Because total hash power is increasing, blocks are being found faster, so difficulty must rise accordingly.
That’s also why it’s "expected" now, not "confirmed."
There are still over 300 blocks left before the adjustment; during this time, price, hash power, and costs may change.
The real watershed isn’t difficulty, it’s electricity price.
Miners with cheap electricity are expanding their machines.
Miners with expensive electricity are already shutting down#TSMC’s record-breaking revenue was already on the market’s radar before October 15, so presenting it as a fresh bullish surprise on earnings day may be missing the bigger picture.
On October 8, the company reported that September revenue jumped 54.6% year-over-year, while slipping 0.6% compared with the previous month. 📊
The takeaway? Strong annual growth doesn’t necessarily mean consistent month-to-month gains. Even in a booming AI chip market, short-term fluctuations.
#DailyOrbit Record numbers from TSMC, but I think the real story is what comes next. 🧐
Revenue was already disclosed month by month, so the surprise is limited. What matters now is the margin guidance (65%-67% vs 67.7% in Q2) and how much TSMC will spend on capex.
Still, with demand for AI chips this strong, I see the long-term picture as solid. Short term, the market may stay cautious. 📊
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit $TSM
Just my opinion, not financial advice.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The 81000 level is where others caught it, not where it held on its own.
$BTC dropped back near 81000 again early this morning.
This is the second time in two days testing this price.
What others think: holding here means a double bottom, looking back to 84000.
If it doesn't hold, then look at 80000, the anchor for the whole market is here.
How this number is calculated: 81000 was the entry point for funds during the last sharp drop.
The second test means the first batch of catchers are already at a floating loss.
The second time is more fragile than the first because fewer people dare to catch it.
$OKB rose 2.4%, money is moving into platform tokens, seeking stability.
$STRK dropped 10% again, those chasing highs are still stuck at the peak.
Before the direction emerges, the first movers get hit first.
#BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover?
#$BTC $OKB # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC's Q3 financial report is out, with net profit far exceeding market expectations and reaching a historic high. The core driving force is the explosive demand for AI computing power chips.
✅ Key Data: Net profit of 763.06 billion TWD, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%; revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, a year-on-year growth of 50.9%, gross margin of 66.4%, net margin surpassing 51%, with profits rising for multiple consecutive quarters. Advanced processes (7nm and below) form the revenue base, with HPC high-performance computing business continuously contributing the largest income.
💡 My thoughts:
1. AI is the core of this growth cycle. AI large models drive HPC chip orders, with 3nm and 5nm high-end process capacity in short supply. High-margin advanced processes elevate overall profitability. However, growth is highly tied to the AI industry chain; if downstream customers slow capital expenditures, it will directly impact future orders.
2. High capital investment is a double-edged sword. To meet AI orders, capacity expansion continues with capital expenditures remaining high. The heavy asset model means significant future depreciation pressure.
3. The competitive landscape remains strong, but external variables are increasing. Advanced process barriers remain difficult to shake in the short term, but geopolitical issues, customer diversification, and local manufacturing costs are uncertainties to face in the medium to long term.
Currently, AI dividends are being realized with impressive performance, but high growth is not permanent. Going forward, focus will be on tracking AI capital expenditures and the pace of advanced process capacity release. TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations.Let's talk about some thoughts and plans.
In the past few months, I've only been buying the dip and adding some long positions, without other operations. Mostly just enduring the market. The current market is mostly about endurance, and it will probably be like this in the future as well...
It's hard to make flashy moves. For ordinary people, this is the only way to actually make some money—above spot, below futures... Currently, I think this is just a small-level top.
If it pulls back to around 7.6 (if it doesn't give a chance, I'll just hold what I have), I might add some positions. Overall, I still see 9.5-10.
This is also roughly the position of the B-wave rebound. Overall, I still expect a large-level consolidation... Mainly, the index has been doing an internal wave 4 since April last year until now.
Personally, I think after the midterm elections, there will be a small rally of about 10-20 points. After that, there will be a mid-term major correction of 20-30 points (not ruling out that the correction might start directly here). So the risk is quite high... If the final expected wave comes out later, I will consider clearing my positions around 9.5-10... I think the future will be a long period of large consolidation. The big opportunity will have to wait until the Nasdaq pulls back 20-30 points... Only then will it be the chance to heavily invest in the index and various assets.Term Structure Radar
$BTC marked positive basis shows a significant shrinkage in the top bid-ask spread. The near-far basis is +2.27%, and the top bid-ask spread for near buy and far sell is +1.21%.
$ETH top positive basis scale is very small. The near buy and far sell spread is +0.6%, with the top pair scale about $198; at a scale of 10,000, this only covers about 2%.现在亚太市场恐慌情绪彻底扩散，KOSPI韩国综合指数跌幅进一步扩大，盘中跌幅来到9%，盘面抛压汹涌，市场避险情绪急剧升温 。存储芯片龙头SK海力士直接大跌接近12%，半导体板块成为重灾区，大量高位做多的筹码遭遇重击，不知道又会有多少多头被埋在里面😇。 亚太股市集体杀跌只是前菜，今晚美股开盘变数极大，行情很难乐观。叠加晚间还要公布美国当周初请失业金以及PPI生产者物价指数两份关键数据，通胀链条的数据连环出炉，会直接放大全市场波动。一旦PPI再度走高，会进一步强化美联储加息的预期，风险资产会继续承压。 现在全球市场逻辑是打通的，韩日股市、美股科技、加密市场联动性极强。韩国散户同时重仓芯片股和加密货币，股市爆仓之后，部分资金会被迫减持加密资产补保证金，间接给BTC、ETH带来抛压。刚经历CPI利空洗礼的币圈本就脆弱，外围再持续输出利空，很容易再度触发合约清算。 接下来重点观察两点，一是美股开盘之后科技、半导体板块能不能止住溃败；二是PPI数据的好坏。现阶段宏观完全主导盘面，不确定性拉满，不要随意抄底博弈反弹。杠杆仓位务必收紧，提前做好应对插针的准备，不要扛单赌方向。#美国CPIThe market is still paying back CPI, but RSR has been rallying for the third consecutive day. How many more bites can Upbit's bowl still offer?
Bitcoin is down 2.7% at 81,000, ETH down 2.7%, yet RSR (Reserve Rights) bucks the trend with a +10% surge to 0.00218, becoming the most eye-catching gainer on the leaderboard aside from ZK.
But to be clear, this isn’t a new story today. The real trigger was on October 12 when Upbit opened KRW and USDT trading pairs for it. Korean retail investors rushed in, pushing the price up by 50 to 60 points in a single candle that day; combined with the September community vote that changed the performance unlocking and burning mechanism, tightening supply expectations. Today’s +10% feels more like a rebound on the third day after listing. I didn’t see any new positive news after checking around.
My judgment: The first bite of meat on a new exchange listing is the most delicious; chasing on the third day usually just props up the first two batches. OKX’s 24-hour trading volume is only about 1.4 million USDT, with the main battlefield actually on Upbit’s KRW market. OKX is just a thin market following the rally. RSI is already at 67, price hugging the upper Bollinger Band; it’s easy to pump and dump, and slippage and spikes can bite.
Watch for two signals: whether it can volume-wise hold above the previous high of 0.0022 and if the Korean market volume doesn’t collapse; once Korean won buying power recedes and volume shrinks on the rally, it’s basically a short-term profit-taking window. DYOR, not investment advice.
#RSR #stablecoin #Upbit #Tesla delivery beats expectations, profit recovery becomes focus #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new highlight # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Three key variables truly determine the ceiling of the advertising business
1. Whether advertising ARPU can catch up with subscription ARPU
Currently, the per-user revenue of ad-supported plans is still lower than that of ad-free plans. The gap may only narrow if advertiser budgets, programmatic buying, and live CPM increase.
2. Whether live and highly engaging content can be continuously supplied
Live content like NFL, WWE, MLB has higher ad monetization efficiency and can boost user engagement, but it is costly and concentrated in scheduling, requiring proof of sustainability.
3. Whether AI advertising systems can improve delivery efficiency
Netflix is advancing AI-driven ad planning, creative adaptation, audience insights, and data clean rooms, which relates to whether advertisers are willing to increase budgets long-term.
Investment Judgment
Netflix's advertising business is worth tracking, but one should not focus solely on the slogan of "doubling ad revenue." More importantly, watch: ad plan ARPU, advertiser retention, live ad fill rate, programmatic share, and whether profit margins are diluted by content costs.
If these indicators improve, the ad business will shift from a "story" to "cash flow"; if not, it will only continue to support valuation rather than become a performance inflection point. #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly 💫20261015
1. Fed rate hike bets double
1. CPI September 3.7%, August 3.4%; Core September 2.6%, August 2.4%, both numbers slightly higher than expected; gasoline rose the most
2. Before the CPI data release, the market bet about 20% chance of a rate hike, after release it rose to 47%
3. BTC intraday low on October 14 was 81588.88, 30-day increase 4.27%; monthly still intact, intraday already broken
4. BTC pays no interest, 2-year US Treasury yield 4.87%, market bets split 50/50
2. ETH zero-knowledge proof speed race
1. Zksync has continuously processed 7200 mainnet blocks, 99% of proofs completed within 10s, one block every 12s; no proof is slower than block production
2. Selling point for banks: even if servers are hacked, no invalid ledger update can pass verification
3. Whose proof system first achieves formal verification
3. ETH down 4.45% this week, currently around 2500
1. Bought ETH 9 years ago at $50, spent $370k USD, now worth 19,260K; unstaked and deposited into Kraken.
2. Three signals:
(1) Coins moving to exchanges
(2) Whales going off-exchange: an OTC whale bought nearly 10,000 coins, cashed out 25,000k
(3) US buyers retreating: comparing the same coin price on exchange C$CRCL Don't rush to copy yet.
From a fundamental perspective, since October 4th, USDC supply has dropped from 75.4 billion to 72.67 billion, approaching 71.75 billion, putting Circle's fundamentals under pressure. The technical outlook is also bearish, with a high probability of continued decline.
There are two possible trends: support between 58-66, possibly stabilizing. If it breaks 58, then look at 50, or even 45-50. Although the second scenario is more likely, it's not guaranteed that 58 will be broken.
Operation is divided into two parts 3:7: buy low between 58-66, place a regular limit order near 50, and adjust later if USDC or the trend changes.# US CPI Surpasses Expectations to 3.7%, PPI Test Tonight
US September CPI exceeded expectations, doubling the probability of a rate hike in October overnight: Tonight's PPI is the key variable!
US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7% (previous 3.4%, expected 3.6%), core CPI year-on-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%), month-on-month 0.6% (previous 0.4%). Inflation pressure is no longer limited to energy but has spread to entertainment, used cars, healthcare, education, clothing, and other sectors.
Market pricing for tightening has surged sharply: the bet on an October rate hike jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, nearly doubling; under CME metrics, the probability of a rate hike before year-end rose above 96%. Risk assets are collectively under pressure, US stocks sold off, Nasdaq fell 1.88%, marking the largest single-day drop since July, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.3%, the dollar strengthened, and gold plunged.
Tonight's focus: US September PPI. The market consensus expects a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, core up 0.3%. If PPI exceeds expectations, it will further confirm inflation stickiness and heighten rate hike concerns; if it moderately falls back, it could provide the market a breathing space.
In short: CPI has put the October rate hike back on the table, and tonight's PPI will determine whether to add fuel to the fire or temporarily cool down. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high
I am Script Brother, and this TSMC financial report is like a strong shot of confidence for the AI industry.
Revenue grew 50.9%, net profit grew 68.7%.
This speed of making money even makes a money printer call it big brother.
But what I care about more is not the profit, but the underlying industry logic.
Is AI really a bubble?
My view is that AI valuations may have a bubble, but the real demand is definitely not a bubble.
Why?
Because tech giants can boost stock prices by storytelling, but TSMC must make money through solid orders.
If chips don’t sell, the financial report won’t play along with you.
What’s more interesting is that the AI industry chain is forming a huge wealth distribution structure.
Upstream chip sellers are making a fortune, while downstream AI application developers are still burning money desperately.
It’s like the gold rush back in the day.
The gold miners may not make money, but the shovel sellers have already gotten rich.
However, TSMC making money doesn’t mean all AI companies can make money.
The real future dividing line is not who has the most computing power, but who can turn computing power into profit.
It’s the same for the crypto world.
AI concept coins are loudly hyped, but very few projects actually generate cash flow.
So don’t blindly rush just because you see the two letters AI.
Stories can be hyped for a while, but profits can sustain a lifetime.
What do you think, will the biggest winner in this AI round be the chip sellers or the application makers?
Discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC