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AAVE breaks below 155, the lending leader dragged down as well
$AAVE 150.9, down about 5.6%, the 155 level broke as soon as it was tested. It was holding relatively firm at 156 and 158 a couple of days ago, but today it was dragged down directly to 150. Even the lending leader couldn't escape this hit. Its strength lies in real demand; the more active the market, the deeper the moat for lending. But this wave is a broad decline, and even coins with solid fundamentals fall when funds withdraw. It dropped 9% in a week, one of the bigger pullbacks recently. After breaking 155, that level turned into resistance, 150 is the current position, with a downside target of 148. Unlike coins driven by sentiment, it has real lending business behind it. Holding it is a long-term play, but short-term pullbacks require patience. Wait for it to stabilize near 150 and climb back above 155 before reconsidering. No need to watch bottom-tier coins every day.
$RE 0.404, down about 5.8%, it and AAVE both belong to DeFi, one insurance and one lending. Both are retreating today, indicating the whole sector is being reduced by funds. 0.4 is a psychological level; if it can't hold, things look worse. Insurance is a slow burner; it needs a market recovery before attracting attention, so don't rush to buy.
$WLD 0.476, down about 6.6%, it is the barometer for the AI sector. Its drop indicates funds are withdrawing from narrative-driven assets, and it's not just this one. Narrative assets are the first to be sold in weak markets because funds seek certainty. If 0.476 can't hold, look down to 0.45. Wait for the storm to pass; don't rush to catch the fall.BTC is currently trading around $80,500, down about 2.6% in 24 hours, having briefly dipped to a low of $80,204, just shy of the $80,000 mark.
On the macro front, the US September CPI year-over-year came in at 3.7%, exceeding expectations, with PPI and retail data also strong. The probability of a rate hike in October surged from 22% to 47%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5.33%, the dollar is strengthening, and risk assets are under broad pressure.
On-chain data shows BTC has tested the $81,000 level for the third time, but the losses on each dip are decreasing, indicating a reduction in panic selling. More so, it reflects swing traders cutting losses rather than a full-scale crash. The average ETF holding cost is about $81,500, nearly matching the current price, forming a key dividing line between bulls and bears. The funding rate turning negative indicates short-term dominance by shorts, but the long-short ratio still favors bulls, suggesting a risk of crowded long positions being passively held.
Technically, the $80,000–$80,700 range is a critical support zone; a decisive break below could test the true market average price around $78,000. Resistance lies between $82,000 and $84,000, which needs volume recovery to improve the short-term structure. It is recommended to wait and watch for stabilization signals and pay attention to subsequent Federal Reserve officials' statements for their impact on macro sentiment. $BTC TSMC's Q3 net profit reached 763.1 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding expectations. Revenue was 1.49 trillion, up 50.9% year-on-year. 2nm accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall accounted for 79%. AI demand is still supporting performance. But the stock price fell 2.82%. Why? The market is not looking at how much has already been earned, but how much of that money will need to be spent. Growth heavily **Is the Fed's "script" about to be torn up?**
Before: Forward guidance + quarterly dot plot was standard, giving the market a reference. In June, Waller refused to release his personal dot plot and cut the statement to 130 words, already showing signs.
Now: Waller is pushing to weaken or even cancel the dot plot, the statement no longer hints at the interest rate path; in September SEP, 16/18 officials expect more hikes this year; after the September hike, other officials appeared publicly over 40 times, effectively "speaking" for him; internal disputes have already erupted within the Fed.
Going forward: If this happens, volatility will spread from FOMC days to every data release day—each CPI and nonfarm payroll release becomes a "lottery day." The MOVE index for US Treasury volatility has reached 80.6, up 23% from the June low.
Impact: $BTC $ETH are most sensitive to macro data. With an uncertain interest rate path, risk assets are hard to price, and crypto market volatility will only amplify.
Do you think Waller's move makes the market more rational or more stimulated? #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be more hikes this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit a record high Last night's CPI just shocked the market, and tonight's PPI completely flipped the table.
Data across the board exceeded expectations... The market's hope for a rebound was extinguished.
Yesterday, the CPI exceeded expectations by about 0.1 percentage points. Energy, especially gasoline, was the main contributor, but housing, cars, and clothing also rose, indicating that the pressure is not solely dependent on oil prices.
Looking at the two days together, the energy shock is no longer a one-time disturbance at the CPI level; it will continue to transmit to the consumer side. The PPI year-on-year surged to 6.3%, much higher than the CPI, so it's hard to expect the CPI to ease easily in the coming months.
For the Federal Reserve, this PPI basically confirms the necessity of further rate hikes. In terms of policy implications, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%. The market originally expected a pause in October and another move in December.
After two consecutive days of inflation data exceeding expectations, the communication at the October meeting will be tougher, and the narrative of rate cuts is untenable; for the market, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have short-term upward momentum, and stock valuations are under pressure. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high Capital behavior review: BTC bear-to-bull phase moving average pullback historical chip signal
From the market, long-term funds are gradually entering, while short-term traders remain cautious. Historical market statistics (on-chain historical K-line, four cycles in 2015/2019/2023/2025) show that the key points for BTC's four bear-to-bull market transitions generally involve a pullback within 40 to 50 days after stabilizing above the 50-day moving average. The rise from stabilizing above the moving average to before this pullback mostly hovers around 30%.
Funds choose to accumulate chips at the pullback position, but subsequent behavior varies across cycles. In 2015 and 2019, after the pullback, long-term funds continued to increase positions, and the market rose at least 50%; in 2023, there was a brief break below the moving average followed by rapid capital inflow, then similarly a 50% upward move.
This current pullback is one of the cycle signals given by long-term funds. At what price would you set your limit orders and stop losses to respond to this chip test?
$BTC $ETH $SOL 这两天美债收益率在5%以上来回跳，ETH受的伤比大饼大得多。大饼一天跌了2.6%，ETH跌了5%，现在2371。
原因说白了就是一笔账。
ETH这两年最能打的一个卖点，是能生利息。你把ETH拿去质押，一年能拿点收益，很多机构就是冲这个来的，把它当成"带利息的数字资产"。
可现在这个利息是多少呢，一年才2.2%左右。
再看美债。10年期今天就算掉下来了，也还有5.1%。钱放进去躺着拿，不用管币价涨跌，也不用担心哪天被砸。
一边是2.2%还得扛着币价，一边是5.1%啥也不用管。换你是基金经理，钱肯定往美债那边挪。
大饼没这个问题。它从来就不靠利息，大家买它是当数字黄金。所以美债利息一高，最先被比下去的是ETH。
这也能解释为啥前几天ETH的ETF一天能流出去2个亿刀。不是大家不看好以太坊，是这个价格下，拿着它不划算。
所以ETH比大饼更难。位置上，今天最低摸到2332，下面2315是关键，再破就看2200。往上先收回2500，才算缓过来。
什么时候美债利息真降下来了，ETH的利息优势才能回来，那时候它反弹会比大饼猛。$BTC $ETH In 24 hours, the probability of a rate hike in October surged from 20% to 50% — but the truly scary thing isn't this.
Yesterday, CPI exceeded expectations, and the market was still consoling itself with "no rate hike in October." Today, PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, expected was 0.5%, which is 2.6 times the forecast. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped directly from 20% to 50% in just 24 hours.
But the real fear isn't the doubling of the rate hike probability.
It's that the August PPI data was revised up from 5.4% to 5.6% — this indicates the previous data was already strong but was just concealed. Inflation didn't "suddenly rebound," it has been there all along; the market just refuses to admit it.
There's also a time window many have overlooked: Wash will speak tomorrow at 11:30 AM in Bangkok, and the Fed enters a blackout period on Saturday. That means tomorrow is his last chance to make a public statement. Against the backdrop of such explosive PPI data, if he hints that a rate hike in October is possible — BTC could directly surge to 78,000.
80,000 was already broken once today; the support at this level is weaker than expected. Don't try to catch a falling knife here; wait for Wash's speech to land before making moves #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 不仅让他们多了，朝下测试的时候还是按的六分之一和五分之一左右。大饼插针的位置刚好在区间中心。富贵险中求，也在险中丢。把三个币放在一起看，比只盯$BTC一个价格有用。我的框架（以下价格为北京时间10月15日22:27 OKX价格页美元报价）： - $BTC看市场周期：我把BTC的价格波动作为观察市场风险偏好的一个参考。现价约81,311美元。北京时间10月14日公布的美国9月CPI，总体同比上涨3.7%、核心同比上涨2.6%，分别高于市场预期的3.6%和2.5%。公布后，BTC曾跌破83,000美元，一度跌破82,000美元下探80,000一带，目前回升至81,300美元附近。价格波动大的时候，我先看它。 - $ETH看资金水位：我用ETH的美国现货ETF净申赎，观察这个投资渠道的资金变化（以下均为美东交易日）。现价约2,376美元。10月12日（周一）单日净流出约8,540万美元——截至当日，已连续10个交易日净流出（9月29日至10月12日），是2026年5月11日–6月3日以来最长的一轮连续净流出；10月13日短暂净流入约2,484万美元回正了一天；10月14日再度净流出约1.3亿美元（ETHA一家就占了约1.1亿）。10月13日的净流入打断了此前的连续流出，14日又转为净流出。这反映的是美国现Why did TSMC's stock plunge despite Q3 beating expectations?
On October 15, TSMC $TSM released its Q3 2026 earnings report: revenue reached 1.494 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up 50.9% year-over-year; net profit soared 68.7% year-over-year to 763.06 billion New Taiwan Dollars, setting a record high and surpassing market expectations of 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars. However, the impressive results did not boost the stock price, which has fallen over 5% so far, closing at $407.
What is the market afraid of?
First, gross margin pressure. Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, down 1.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and below the market expectation of 66.5%, mainly due to the initial mass production of the 2nm process lowering margins. Management further indicated that overseas wafer fabs in the coming years will dilute gross margin by 3 to 4 percentage points.
Second, the AI rally is fully priced in. TSMC has set profit records for six consecutive quarters; traders want acceleration, not just confirmation. When expectations are maxed out, beating expectations alone is insufficient to drive the stock price higher.
Third, forward guidance reveals caution. Despite strong AI demand, the company clearly stated it is "maintaining caution" in planning for 2027. Rising component prices and macroeconomic uncertainties are pressuring consumer electronics end markets, which the market interprets as a signal that growth may have peaked.
With these three concerns combined, even with hot earnings, the market has chosen to vote with its feet.
#TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, earnings hit record high As soon as the US PPI was released, risk appetite took another hit, and concerns about sticky inflation resurfaced. Wall Street showed mixed gains and losses overnight, while the crypto market dropped more directly: BTC at $81,180, down 1.11% in 24 hours; ETH at $2,372, down 2.71%; SOL at $103, down 1.16%. Almost all mainstream assets weakened across the board.
This downturn is still driven by tightening macro expectations. The PPI makes the market more conservative about the rate cut path, risk-free rates remain high, discount rates rise, and high-valuation, high-beta assets bear the brunt first. Crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve; when liquidity expectations fluctuate, volatility is amplified, and declines generally exceed those of US stocks. Ultimately, it remains the asset class most sensitive to liquidity.
Before a macro turning point appears, don’t rush to see any rebound as a buy signal. When prices rise, it’s more an opportunity to reduce positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#USCPIandPPIsurpassexpectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? $BTC once dropped below $80,000,
$ETH touched around $2,322.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidations amounted to about $977 million, with longs accounting for over 90%.
As of tonight, all the negative news has been released,
Is it time for a rebound?
Liquidation is the result, not the cause,
Prices were first pushed down by macro interest rates,
Then triggered a chain of leveraged forced liquidations,
So a rebound is likely.
However,
Macro pressure hasn't eased:
September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than expected,
The Fed's October rate hike expectations have clearly risen;
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5%.
ETF funds are still flowing out:
In October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are still net outflows overall,
Institutional marginal buying hasn't returned.
Next, watch three signals:
Whether Bitcoin can hold back above $83,000–$86,000 and stay there for two consecutive days;
Whether the US spot Bitcoin ETF shifts from net outflow to net inflow;
Whether the 10-year US Treasury yield and Fed rate hike expectations decline.I actually tend to think Tesla's earnings report this quarter will not exceed expectations~
Two reasons:
First, the profit baseline itself is not low.
The EPS threshold is $0.43, which means Tesla not only needs to maintain profits but also needs to achieve sufficient profit improvement among vehicle deliveries, vehicle gross margin, energy business, and other income.
Second, the automotive business remains the core variable.
Tesla's valuation narrative increasingly relies on Robotaxi, FSD, AI, and energy business, but whether this earnings report "exceeds expectations" still primarily depends on the accounting profit for the quarter. Future business stories may not directly translate into this quarter's EPS.
#Tesla delivery exceeding expectations shifts focus to profit recovery 宏观背景：这次不一样
本轮下跌的核心驱动是宏观，而非加密或科技行业自身的问题。 美国9月CPI同比上涨3.7%，高于预期的3.6%；核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，高于预期的2.5%；环比上涨0.6%创近五个月最大涨幅。美联储上月刚将联邦基金利率上调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%，为三年来首次加息，并暗示未来几个月可能进一步上调。10年期美债收益率一度冲上5.3%上方。
在利率上行环境中，所有无息资产（加密货币）和高估值成长股（AI概念）都面临估值重估。 这不是"跌多了就会反弹"的问题，而是"定价锚在移动"的问题。在美联储政策路径明确之前，任何反弹都可能是短暂的$BTC $ETH $BTC #CoreWeave Stocks and Bonds Both Plunge, CEO Responds to Financing Concerns
The leader has something to say
CoreWeave experienced a double hit in stocks and bonds yesterday. The stock price dropped 15.46%, and the yield on the 2032 bonds broke 15%. What is the market worried about? It carries $52.1 billion in debt and lease liabilities. Although the order backlog exceeds 100 billion, turning orders into revenue requires building data centers and delivering computing power, which involves time and costs.
The CEO said the market is irrational and that long-term orders are sufficient to repay the debt. But with both stock and bond markets falling together, the reassurance actually suggests significant financing pressure. Orders are on paper, but cash flow is real. In a high interest rate environment, AI infrastructure companies with high leverage are very vulnerable.
This is indirectly negative for crypto. If AI infrastructure financing runs into problems, risk appetite will shrink, putting pressure on Bitcoin. Coupled with CPI exceeding expectations, inflation rising for three consecutive months, increased expectations of rate hikes, and high U.S. Treasury yields, macroeconomic pressure remains.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
I have already closed my long position at 84,000, locking in a profit of 1,200 points, and am now in cash. I’m not in a hurry to go long again; I’ll wait for the market to digest before reassessing. Support below is at 80,000; holding 82,000 means consolidation. No chasing the rally or panic selling; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive. Always set stop losses on your positions. Good luck.Putting the daily charts of $SOL and $BTC side by side for the past 59 days, SOL acts like a magnifying glass for BTC, amplifying the rise and fall by roughly the same multiple.
During the 32 days BTC rose, BTC averaged a 1.8% increase, while SOL averaged a 2.66% increase, about 1.5 times that, with SOL outperforming BTC on 22 of those days. During the 27 days BTC fell, BTC averaged a 1.25% decline, and SOL averaged a 1.94% decline, also about 1.5 times.
This multiple was most evident from August 17 to September 25. BTC rose 30.3%, SOL rose 60.7%, exactly doubling.
From the close on October 4 until now, BTC dropped from 86530 to 80578, a 6.9% decline, while SOL dropped from 121.6 to 101.91, a 16.2% decline. In this period, SOL’s drop exceeded the average multiple. The SOL to BTC price ratio is 0.001265, with a 59-day low of 0.001178 on August 17, a high of 0.001452 on September 25, and currently near the lower bound.
The magnifying glass amplifies both the downward and upward halves equally, with the same multiple. For those holding SOL, if you consider holding BTC’s daily close above 80,000 as your holding condition, then holding that means the magnified side is the upward half.$BTC 别急着抄底！八万就是最后一块遮羞布
今晚PPI没帮上忙，美股开盘也没救回来，下跌趋势照样压着打。刚这波下探，差一点就把八万给捅了。多头现在就在这位置硬撑。
PPI没用，美股没救，说明啥？这不是情绪杀，是趋势杀。市场在用脚投票，利空还没消化完。更关键的是明晚沃什发言，要是措辞偏鹰，八万大概率保不住。真到那时候，下方空间一开，带血的筹码估计得等到中期选举才有像样回暖。
我的建议很简单：现在别当免费韭菜。这位置我不抄底，理由就一个利空太多，情绪没出清，冲进去是赌运气，不是做交易。
想抄底？等八万有效跌破，看市场反应再说。
想做空？有效跌破八万，才是相对确定的机会。
想扛单？明天周五，沃什讲话是重中之重，周末流动性差，你在半山腰扛着，可能一路扛到下周一，扛到怀疑人生。
做合约，没行情的时候就一个字：等。保留子弹，别一股脑冲进去当韭菜，到时候哭都哭不出来。#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $SPCX $BTC $SOL SPCX从225美元跌到100出头，现在刚回176，又跌回144，累计跌36%。别再用“星舰、火星、AI”说服自己。市场定价已转向AI和星链收入，AI一波动它就跌；FAA启动环境评估，监管调查不断；10月26日约7%股份解禁，抛压悬顶；ARK已在减持。更血腥的是杠杆：3倍杠杆巨鲸浮亏84%，20倍杠杆者亏损超本金。估值按2027年乐观预期市销率仍近19倍，公司还在亏损。机构在卖，你在买？如果买入理由只剩“信仰”，那就别买。暴跌不是上车机会，是市场在清算透支的未来。别补仓摊平，先问：当初的买入逻辑还成立吗？不成立，就止损；不懂，就学习。活着，比信仰重要。
#SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？ 过境一个半时实况：冰雹渐歇，风向未转⛈️
八点半那场强对流准时过境，现在的实况：冰雹砸了，风也刮了，天还没晴。我预测的BTC会跌破8万，它真的来了！
先报冰雹账单🧊。这一个小时，全网爆了3245万，九成砸多头。BTC合约里1299万被砸，多单占了1269万；ETH那边308万，SOL这边77万。拉长到24小时，账单一共9.11亿，17万人，91.5%都是多头。
再报风向💨。三兄弟的合约盘口上，钱还在往外吹：BTC净流出1.66亿，SOL净流出1420万，ETH跑了849万。现货口也往外淌，空头气压占上风。雨还没停，伞先别收。
有意思的是，冰雹越砸越小。3245万，跟之前4小时的5763万、12小时的6.16亿一比，劲头明显弱了——第一波清算基本被吃完。可费率还全是正的，我在欧易盘口上看，ETH持仓还加了4.58%，有人在冰雹里抄底。尴尬的是：这会儿抄的底，恰恰是下一波冰雹的原材料。
所以预警还没解除。冰雹过去了，但风向没转，钱还在往外跑。八点半我说场外观战，看法不变：等风停再说，别在冰雹里捡伞。
下次报冰雹还是报天晴，就看钱回不回流。雨天留客天，留人还是留钱，到时候见分晓✊。Shorted near $PUMP 0.0051, the 12-hour chart has been steadily declining from the high of 0.0067, with selling pressure never stopping. It dropped more than 7 points intraday, with volume quite large, and the buying side couldn't hold at all. It's a Meme coin, named PUMP but the price hasn't pumped at all; when sentiment fades, it falls even harder than altcoins. Just follow the trend and short it.
Currently around 0.00437, the floating profit percentage looks intimidating at over 700%, but it was a small position with 50x leverage for trial and error, so the actual profit is just pocket money. Posting the screenshot is purely to record the market feeling. The previous low of 0.004235 was just tested, and this area tends to have profit-taking stop orders rushing out; the market also shows some signs of volume contraction and stabilization.
I don't like to fight with 50x leverage; Meme coins can spike back anytime with a single candle. I'm most likely preparing to take profits. It's better to run fast than to hold stubbornly; you can never sell at the lowest, but you just need to leave before you "feel a rebound coming."Stimulus, semiconductors have sharply corrected again
With interest rate hike expectations stepping up another notch, gold surprisingly hasn't dropped much tonight, even looking a bit strong, in stark contrast to last night's CPI plunge
A closer look reveals it's still related to safe-haven demand
1. Long-term US Treasury yields have recently plummeted (the 10-year is about to drop below 5 percentage points), with strong demand for US Treasuries
2. Tech stocks have plunged, and the US stock market's 'Seven Sisters' are also under valuation pressure
3. The crypto industry is collectively declining, with almost no decent rebound
So the real reason seems to be that part of the funds fleeing the AI tech sector have gone into government bonds, and another part has flowed into gold
As of this writing, spot gold is temporarily reported at 4150
But this is only a temporary sign; whether 4000 is the bottom and if a reversal can happen now remains to be seen over time #CPI After Release, Observing Funds Moving Weakly in Sync Between Nasdaq and Crypto Assets
On the evening of Beijing time, CPI data was released, and both the Nasdaq and crypto assets declined simultaneously, while U.S. Treasury yields rose. The synchronous movement of these two asset classes does not imply causation but reflects risk capital contracting simultaneously under unified interest rate expectations. Funds rotate among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and crypto assets: when interest rate expectations rise, high-volatility assets are reduced first, and liquidity preference shifts toward fixed income.
I suffered losses in this round of the market, with years of savings diminished. Lacking inherent support, I was eager to change my situation through trading, which made me impatient and lacking in execution. After reviewing, I realized the root problem was my own cognition, not the market. To sustain my living, I have taken on short-term physical work to earn living expenses, with no safety net, even having to time my emotional breakdowns. Although trading did not bring profits, this experience is also a kind of gain, and I will adjust my mindset and continue moving forward.
If subsequent Federal Reserve officials' speeches significantly shift toward easing, this linkage observation logic will become invalid.
$SOL $BTC $ZEC #US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be Another Rate Hike This Year?
As soon as this data came out, I guess many people felt a jolt in their hearts.
US September PPI year-on-year shot up to 6.3%, while the market expected only 5.3%, and month-on-month was 1.3%, with an expectation of just 0.5%. Core PPI was the same, all exceeding expectations. Plus the previous CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, also higher than expected. Two consecutive inflation data points are on the hot side, indicating that price pressures have not eased at all.
Once the data came out, expectations for a rate hike this year rose again. But look at those officials, still the same as always, each saying their own thing. Daly said a rate hike might be necessary but not urgent. Goolsbee said we still need to see more data. To be frank, they themselves haven't decided what to do next. Now the whole market is focused on one person, Waller. Tomorrow morning at the IMF annual meeting, he will have a dialogue with the IMF chief, and the market wants to hear his stance on the future interest rate path.
What impact does this have?
First, short-term pressure is certain. Inflation is hot, rate hike expectations are heating up, so the dollar and US Treasury yields will be pushed up, and risk assets will take a hit. Bitcoin dropped 1% today, that's the logic. Off-exchange money is currently too scared to move, all waiting for Waller to speak.
Second, don't just focus on whether there will be a rate hike or not. Even if there isn't one, as long as inflation doesn't come down, long-term interest rates won't fall, and funding costs will remain high. For Bitcoin to break out into a one-sided rally, what it lacks is fresh liquidity, not a "no rate hike" slogan. At this position, it's tough both ways, it's just grinding.
What do you think? $BTC 跌了三天，费率还赖在零上：多头嘴硬，但手软了
今晚先说结论：这三天的跌法，不是恐慌，是钝刀子割肉。
BTC 80,548，24h 跌 2.38%，最低扎到 80,228，离 8 万只剩一口气。ETH 2,354，跌 4.6%，2400 失守。SOL 101.93，100 块也悬了。
但费率看得我一愣：BTC 0.0038%，ETH 0.0044%，全贴着零的正上方，愣是没转负。三天连跌，多头利息照交不误。
说白了就是嘴硬：认错不认错，仓位死拿着；但 0.0038% 连正常值 0.01% 的一半都不到，加仓是真不敢。OI 30,800 个 BTC 没动，没人爆仓也没人抄底，全场都在等一个理由。
偏偏今天的理由都偏空：ETF 单日净流出 2.61 亿，沃什又要动美联储沟通框架，利率预期能见度下降，风险资产先挨刀。
前瞻：今晚到明早只看一根线，80,228。跌破且费率翻负，多头认输，8 万整关见；站住且费率抬头，看 81,600 反弹。证伪：今晚 BTC 收回 82,200、ETH 重返 2,450，我这条偏空作废，明早开篇认错。
8 万关，你觉得守得住吗？#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins For those doing leverage today, take your eyes off the coin price and glance at oil. The International Energy Agency announced a full release of 100 million barrels of unused crude oil at once, plus an urgent release of 20 million barrels of diesel. Including the round in March, the total release exceeds 400 million barrels, effectively flooding the market from the supply side. When oil prices are pushed down, the most direct effect is a relief in inflation expectations. Why does this matter to $BTC? In recent months, the market has translated geopolitical conflicts and rising oil prices into the narrative of "sticky inflation and the Fed needing to keep raising rates," with rate hike expectations weighing down risk assets. Now that the supply side is proactively releasing pressure, if oil prices can stabilize and decline, the macro leash holding down crypto will loosen a notch. Of course, this is a slow-moving variable; don't expect it to reflect in the market today. Which do you believe more: that inflation can truly cool down, or that central banks will keep talking tough to the end? USDC issued $8.6 billion over seven days but redeemed more: $10.1 billion. Circle's transparency data as of October 12 shows a net decrease in circulation of $1.5 billion, with a balance of $72.7 billion. This is the weekly statistic, not a single-day outflow.
Issuance is exchanging dollars for new USDC, while redemption returns the coins in exchange for dollars. Therefore, only looking at the $8.6 billion "new issuance" misses the larger reverse capital flow. The total amount of USDC available for on-chain payments, trading, and lending has actually shrunk.
For platforms and users relying on USDC turnover, if net redemptions continue and other funds do not replenish, available liquidity may tighten. However, this table does not indicate which exchanges the funds came from, where they ultimately went, nor does it prove holders sold other crypto assets.
Next, issuance and redemption should be viewed together, along with monitoring exchange balances, lending supply and demand, and exchange price spreads. Supply reduction alone cannot determine that all stablecoin funds are withdrawing, nor can it be directly converted into an equivalent amount of coin sales.
Source and chart: Circle transparency original page, data as of 10/12; reviewed at 22:07 Beijing time on 10/15, amounts are rounded values on the page. Below is the USDC/USDT spot trading entry.
https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/usdc-usdt$ETH Right now, everyone is busy guessing where the bottom is, but institutions are not panicking at all. I dug into yesterday's ETF data and saw a very unusual signal
First, look at BTC: there was a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday, BlackRock sold 13.34 million, and Fidelity sold 18.36 million. They just added over 20 million the day before, then completely exited the next day. In other words, institutions were only testing the waters and immediately pulled back to observe after the CPI bearish news
Now look at ETH: net outflow was only 51,900, with Grayscale and BlackRock selling slightly, almost unchanged. The price dropped to 2315, and institutions neither bottom-fished nor dumped; they are all waiting and watching for direction
My view: institutions are not panicking or selling off; they are patiently waiting for opportunities. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is already weakening. This drop is essentially a long liquidation by longs against longs. SOL's long-short ratio is still 2.68, meaning long positions haven't been fully cleared yet, and the chain reaction of liquidations is not over
I am still currently out of position. Bottom-fishing recklessly in this market is pure luck. I will wait until the liquidation is mostly done and the market truly stabilizes before taking action on $ETH
Key support levels to note: BTC 80000 / 78000, ETH 2300 / 2200, SOL 100 / 95$SNDK 这波空单吃到撑，1378%浮盈背后是75倍在走钢丝。宏观那边美债收益率飙着，加密ETF天天净流出，大盘都不行小币更没戏。长鑫G5量产的消息一出来，海外存储垄断的逻辑开始动摇，闪迪高位补跌，链上这标的跟着阴跌根本刹不住。
盘面看1594空到1301，均线全死叉，反抽碰中轨就往下掉。1300这个整数关口多空在磨，破了下面真没啥买盘挡着。量能也是跌的时候放、弹的时候缩，典型的出货结构。巨鲸这边也是各怀鬼胎，有人接有人砸。
我现在操作很粗暴：平了大半锁利润，止损推到开仓价。剩的仓位让子弹飞，放量涨回1594就跑。75倍到这种位置，宁可少赚不挨揍，低位一根大阳线能把你半个月利润洗没。$ZEC $BTC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Don't just look at $BTC breaking 80,000 or $ETH dropping 5% in isolation this morning. Look up at the traditional markets: the Nasdaq opened down over 1%, AMD, Intel, and Marvell all fell more than 5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost two trillion in seven days, and even SpaceX dropped 5%. This isn't some internal issue within the crypto space; it's the entire risk asset class deleveraging in sync. At times like this, crypto's decline is essentially being treated as high-beta tech stocks being sold off. Understanding this layer helps you see why simply focusing on on-chain data or capital flow to judge direction fails: money is being pulled out from the macro side. When the risk appetite engine stalls, don't expect any coin to remain unscathed. $ETH is the weakest today because it's the highest beta leg taking the first hit. Do you think this round of deleveraging is done?BTC fell below 80,000, 185,000 people liquidated with 982 million in losses, but one data point is rising against the trend.
First, look at this contrast.
In the past 24 hours, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,209 coins, Ethereum ETFs a net outflow of 38,915 coins, with a 7-day cumulative outflow of 5,250 BTC and 133,537 ETH. SOL ETFs have been bleeding for 8 consecutive trading days, losing another 1.3 million on Wednesday. BlackRock's ETHA had a single-day outflow of 110 million, and Fidelity's FBTC outflow was 153 million.
ETFs are running.
But on-chain whales are buying. The total holdings of Bitcoin on-chain whales rose to 3.03 million coins, with the monthly growth rate the fastest since February this year. Price falls, whales buy; this divergence has lasted for some time.
Now look at the liquidation structure. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 982 million USD, 185,000 people were liquidated, over 90% were long positions. This is not institutions dumping, but a long leverage stampede. BTC's short-term strong support is at 81,873, ETH at 2,405, SOL between 100 USD and the 200-day moving average of 97.95.
I believe ETF outflows reflect sentiment, whale accumulation is the fact. The biggest enemy in the market now is not institutions, but the leverage piled up by the bulls themselves. Before liquidation data clears, chasing longs is just fueling others.
BTC broke 80,000, the next level to watch is 78,000. If ETH can't hold 2,405, then 2,400 is just paper-thin. Whether SOL can hold 100 determines if it is a correction or turning bearish. $DOGE 永续，50x 空单从 0.08076 开至 0.07842，浮盈 +144.87%。实际跌幅约 2.89%（0.00234点），收益全靠 50 倍杠杆放大。
当前 0.07842 临近短线支撑，追空性价比极低，稍一反抽就容易扫掉追单。操作上本金先提现，底仓设保本损让它自己飘。
没上车的别急，等 0.08076 附近反弹确认承压再动手。50 倍浮盈 144% 不落袋风险极高，看着翻倍但随时可能回吐，保住利润，不贪。$BTC $ETH At present, it seems that the 80,000 level still has quite a few people watching as support. Previous analysis also suggested that in the fourth quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate between 80,000 and 90,000, with the area around 80,000 to 82,000 possibly being a good accumulation zone. If the subsequent CPI data does not worsen further, the Middle East situation cools down a bit, and ETF outflows stop, the price has a chance to rebound first to around 85,000 to 87,000 to test resistance. But don't expect a new high immediately—the peak this year was around September when it surged past about 96,000, and now there is still a considerable distance from last October's high of over 120,000. Market sentiment is clearly much more cautious.With this CPI cut, the September data is tougher than everyone expected, and core inflation has also turned back. Many were waiting for the "bad news to be fully priced in" to buy the dip, but the market didn’t even bother to rebound and just kept drifting down.
The real trouble isn’t how much Bitcoin has already dropped, but that this downtrend doesn’t seem to be over yet. If 80000 is effectively broken, market sentiment will likely collapse further, and then it depends on whether the 76000 area can hold.
The logic isn’t complicated: inflation isn’t coming down, so rate cuts will have to be delayed, funding costs won’t decrease, and off-exchange money won’t dare to rush in recklessly. This is what risk assets fear most — the faucet is tightened, and no one can jump around.
So for now, I’m not bottom-fishing or guessing the bottom. First, let’s see if it can stabilize above 80000, then check if the rebound has volume. Before there’s a stop-loss signal, controlling your hands is more important than anything else; losing less is earning more.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has lost over two trillion dollars in market value over seven trading days. This morning, storage leaders like Samsung and Hynix continue to take hits, and the screen is full of panic. But what I focus on is never market sentiment, but supply and demand. The Micron CEO said a few days ago that they have locked in $150 billion in long-term orders, and storage will be tighter in the next two years than this year; Samsung and Toshiba are also cutting production capacity to maintain prices. Prices are being hammered down by sentiment, but the fundamentals are tightening. This divergence is exactly where I am willing to bet. The oversold rebound is not about catching the absolute bottom, but betting that sentiment is running ahead of fundamentals. $BTC is dropping along with risk assets, but for the storage sector, I am watching a different clock. What do you think about this semiconductor sell-off? Is it a trend reversal or a mistaken sell-off?Вышедший сегодня огромный блок макроданных в США не несет позитива рынкам рисковых активов. Выделяем из данных самое важное и разбираем по очереди. КЛЮЧЕВОЕ - инфляция производителей в США резко ускорилась. Что с учетом вчерашних данных по потребительской инфляции - ухудшает ситуацию. При этом розничные продажи превысили прогнозы, но это слабое утешение. И вообще для ФРС это неприятная комбинация, которая усиливает аргументы в пользу дальнейшего повышения ставки. Всего сегодня опубликованы сразуChain reaction of shocks! Both PPI and retail sales strengthen, market logic has changed!
The just-released PPI has surged dramatically!
Year-on-year 6.3%, higher than the expected 5.3% and previous 5.4%.
Month-on-month it’s an even more fierce 1.3%, nearly three times the expectation!
More importantly, the simultaneously released retail data unexpectedly beat expectations.
This indicates that US consumer resilience remains, and purchasing power is still supporting the economy.
With this data out, the Federal Reserve now has the confidence to continue its hawkish stance.
The core driver of this inflation rebound is oil prices.
Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, which means October inflation will likely be higher than September.
Of course, we must be objective:
Although a recession is not visible in the short term, labor and some consumption data have shown signs of weakness; economic resilience does not equal strength.
Previously, CME’s highest rate hike probability reached 55%, and with this PPI release, it may further rise, approaching 60%.
The market now needs to reprice: will there be another rate hike in December?
Next, gold, Bitcoin, US bonds, and the dollar all need to have their expectations reassessed.
Traders, be sure not to gamble based on the old rate cut script!
#USCPIandPPIbeatexpectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $ETH 两根通胀大棒，砸碎了降息幻想。
① CPI先动手：9月CPI同比3.7%，超预期3.6%，汽油单月暴涨9.1%，核心CPI 2.6%也超预期。10月加息概率从22%一夜飙到近50%。
② PPI补一刀：9月PPI同比6.3%、环比1.3%，双双碾压预期（5.3%/0.5%），创2022年末以来最猛。上游涨价开始往下游传导，通胀粘性坐实。
③ 币圈的痛：比特币跌破8.1万，一度探到8.02万；ETH重挫6%至2350附近。24小时全网爆仓近10亿美元，九成是多单——追多的人，被一根数据线集体抬走。现货ETF同步净流出。
记住这条链：通胀超预期 → 加息预期升温 → 美债收益率走高、美元走强 → 资金撤离高波动资产。比特币早不是"数字黄金"的避风港，它就是全球利率交易里弹性最大的那一环。
10月27-28日FOMC才是真正的审判日。8万关口守不守得住，比任何一根阳线都重要。管住手，别做那九成里的一员。$BTC #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 BTC hits new lows again! The real danger in this downturn is not the price itself, but that global capital is repricing risk.
US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with inflation exceeding expectations, reigniting concerns about further Fed rate hikes. The South Korean stock market plunged, global tech stocks are under pressure, and the crypto market has not been spared.
According to a previous report by The Block, the crypto market's 24-hour liquidation volume once reached about $951 million, with longs accounting for about $876 million. This indicates that this adjustment is not just spot selling but also involves significant leverage liquidation.
I am currently focusing on two signals: first, whether BTC can quickly recover after breaking the previous low; second, whether open interest stops abnormal contraction when the price stabilizes.
If the rebound only shows price increases without volume and capital support, the short-term recovery may still just be a pullback within a downtrend.
What really matters is not guessing the lowest point, but when the market will stop continuously making new lows.
#BTC #Bitcoin #cryptocurrencyWriting
$CORE The 81 million token drop in circulating supply likely stems from excess tokens burned during the early September hard fork, per public data. Data platforms may have only recently updated their stats to reflect this, rather than indicating a new burn by the project team in October.
Clarify timing and uncertainty
Make this post more concise
Adopt a more cautious market tone #DailyOrbit # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC maintains its 2026 capital expenditure plan of $60-64 billion, with capital investment reaching $13.8 billion this quarter alone. This implies that Q4 single-quarter capital expenditure will increase by 67%-103% year-over-year to $19.3-23.4 billion, fully matching the explosive growth in AI computing power demand. Meanwhile, the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 44%, exceeding the previous expectation of "slightly above 40%". The Q4 revenue guidance is $52.3-54.3 billion, significantly better than the market consensus of $51 billion, corresponding to a year-over-year growth rate exceeding 55%.
However, the market-anticipated core operating guidance for 2027 was not explicitly released in this earnings report. The optimistic signals widely expected by institutions—"full-year revenue growth exceeding 40% and capital expenditure reaching $85 billion"—did not materialize, which somewhat disappointed the capital market. This precisely reflects TSMC's industrial nature as the "chain leader" in the industry: it does not deliberately "paint a rosy picture" for the capital market through overly optimistic guidance, but bases core decisions on actual orders and expansion pace. It allocates CoWoS advanced packaging capacity through a quota system rather than aggressively raising prices to impact upstream and downstream of the industry chain, maintaining overall stability of the global AI computing power supply chain.The quieter the market, the more it indicates that funds are all waiting for tonight's answer.
Currently, BTC, ETH, and OKB are not fluctuating much; the market is not in a hurry to choose a direction.
The core variable behind this is not the candlestick chart, but the macro environment.
Oil prices are still oscillating near high levels, and inflationary pressure has not completely subsided.
The market generally expects: September CPI year-over-year to be about 3.6%.
But the real key is not the CPI itself, but whether the core CPI can continue to cool down.
If core inflation remains stubborn, the market may raise expectations for a December rate hike again, and risk assets could face short-term pressure once more. Focus on two data points: if the core CPI month-over-month is above 0.3% and the year-over-year continues to rise, expectations for rate cuts will be completely extinguished; conversely, if core inflation softens, risk appetite recovery will drive funds to flow back.
$BTC now seems more like it is waiting for macro confirmation; a breakout requires fund support. Last night, the spot ETF still had a net inflow of $176 million, indicating institutional buying has not disappeared, but if the price falls below the average holding cost of ETF investors, it may trigger additional redemption pressure.
$ETH is more sensitive to funds; if rate hike expectations heat up, the pressure may be more obvious. Ethereum spot ETF has had net outflows for several consecutive days, combined with BTC's structural pressure, it is highly likely that volatility will increase before tonight's data release, and the risk of one-sided chasing is not small.
If tonight's CPI is substantially negative, ETH breaking below 2400 may trigger the next round of clearing; conversely, if the data cools down, BTC and ETH are expected to see a round of sentiment recovery. The real crash happened a week after the election
On November 6, 2018, $BTC barely moved around 6400.
The real drop happened a week after the election, from 6400 to 5544.
How this number is calculated:
From the election day at 6400 down to the lowest at 3201, a retracement of about 45.5%.
The drop was not on election day, but in the month following the election.
What’s different this time:
Currently, spot ETFs and listed companies together hold over 2.57 million $BTC.
In 2018, the market was almost all retail and leverage; now institutions are buying at the bottom.
But policy is another matter.
Hardline crypto lawmakers may take control of the Financial Services Committee.
This kind of uncertainty is more worth watching than the market on election day itself.
History won’t repeat exactly, but it will rhyme.
#BTC spot ETF net outflow again, can institutional buying warm up?
#$BTC Tonight at 20:30, 5 major events will explode simultaneously, $BTC is holding its breath at the 80,000 threshold
Brothers, let's first talk about the current situation.
$BTC is currently priced around $81,000, down 3% in 24 hours; Ethereum is even worse, down over 5.5%, quoted near $2,362. The entire network saw 185,000 liquidations in 24 hours, totaling $982 million, with over 90% being long positions liquidated. As I write this, $BTC an hour ago even dipped to $80,230 before barely pulling back. Honestly, longs at this level have already been skinned by the market.
Why such a drop?
Last night, CPI already triggered a shockwave. September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, core CPI month-over-month 0.3%, year-over-year 2.6%, all exceeding expectations. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% in a single month, and core items like housing and transportation are also rising. The market’s previous narrative that "energy shocks are one-off and core inflation will naturally fall" was directly contradicted by this data.
The result: the probability of a Fed rate hike in October jumped from 20% to 53.7% after the CPI release. Although later on Polymarket bets on no change returned to 79%, the hawkish expectations could no longer be suppressed; the market is gambling on whether the Fed will act in October.
The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.9%, marking one of the worst single-day performances since July. Risk assets are all taking hits; the crypto world is not fighting alone.
Now, about tonight at 20:30, five data points will be released simultaneously, each more critical than the last:
① Initial Jobless Claims (previous 197,000, expected 200,000)
Above 200,000 → weakening employment → favorable for rate cuts → bullish for crypto. Below 200,000 → strong employment → no reason for Fed to ease → bearish. This data is prone to surprises; the previous value was already very low. If it falls short of expectations, BTC likely won’t hold 80,000.
② September Retail Sales Month-over-Month (previous 1.10%, expected 0.30%)
The previous 1.1% is a high base; the market expects a significant cooldown. But note: if the release is above 0.5%, it indicates consumer resilience far beyond expectations, overheating narrative returns, rate hike expectations surge, pressuring crypto. If below 0.3%, consumption is weak → recession fears rise → rate cut expectations strengthen → bullish for crypto. This is not a simple "above expectation bearish, below expectation bullish" scenario; the key is how the market interprets the cooling degree—too little cooling is a hidden bearish sign, too much cooling raises recession fears.
③ PPI Year-over-Year (previous 5.40%, expected 5.3%)
PPI is a precursor to CPI. CPI already shocked; if PPI is also above 5.3%, it means upstream inflation pressure hasn’t eased, reinforcing the narrative that "inflation won’t come down." This is a direct blow to $BTC.
④ PPI Month-over-Month (previous 0.40%, expected 0.50%) — this is tonight’s biggest bomb
The month-over-month expectation is higher than last month, indicating the market anticipates upstream inflation is accelerating again. If the release is ≥0.5%, combined with yesterday’s CPI surprise, the market will immediately push the "Fed must continue hiking" script to the forefront, and $BTC’s attempt to break 80,000 will be fiercer than last night. This data’s impact is greater than the previous four combined.
⑤ New York Fed Manufacturing Index (previous 7.6, expected 10.25)
Regional manufacturing sentiment. The expectation is much higher than the previous value; if it reaches above 10.25, it means the economic fundamentals remain strong, bearish for rate cut expectations. Below expectations is the opposite.
Let’s talk about the funding side — there’s an interesting divergence here.
ETFs are running out, but whales are buying. $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million yesterday, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading with $153 million outflow in a single day. But on-chain data shows large holders’ total $BTC holdings increased to 3.03 million coins. ETFs are withdrawing, whales are accumulating — this divergence historically often appears near phase bottoms but doesn’t mean an immediate reversal.
Regarding funding rates, $BTC perpetual contract rates are positive but extremely low, only 0.0015% per 8 hours. The long-short ratio still favors longs (63.9% long), indicating market sentiment hasn’t fully turned bearish; long positions remain crowded. This means if tonight’s data is bearish again, there’s still plenty of fuel for liquidations.
What about technicals?
At the $81,000 level, $BTC has tested this support three times on October 9, 12, and 15. Repeatedly testing the same support either means building a bottom or preparing to break down. Analyst Murphy points out that swing chips are gradually clearing out. But Bitget analyst Lewis Huang warns that if the short-term support at $81,300 breaks and the downtrend continues, the risk of further decline increases. Arthur Hayes remains calm, publicly bullish on $BTC and $ETH, reasoning that "ultimately, trillions of dollars in bailouts will appear." Well, that logic is very Hayes.
How to respond tonight?
If data is overall hawkish (PPI ≥ 0.5%, retail ≥ 0.5%, initial claims < 200,000): $BTC will likely test the 80,000 integer level; if broken, look for a liquidation cluster near 78,000. Don’t rush to bottom-fish.
If data is overall dovish (PPI < 0.5%, retail < 0.3%, initial claims > 200,000): support near 81,000 will be confirmed; first rebound target is 83,000–84,000, but resistance at 88,000 is hard to break short-term.
If data is mixed (most likely): the market will first spike up and down to clear leverage, then return to consolidation. This kind of market is the most annoying but also the most common. Controlling your hands is more important than anything.
A heartfelt word: 185,000 liquidations and $982 million evaporated, the market just went through a bloody deleveraging. If tonight’s data brings another round of bearishness, whether 80,000 can hold is really uncertain. But on the flip side, the CPI surprise has already been partly digested by the market; if tonight’s PPI isn’t more hawkish than expected, a "bearish exhaustion" rebound might occur.
Anyway, tonight at 20:30, control your positions well, don’t gamble on data with leverage, survival is more important than anything.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#USCPIandPPISurpriseExpectations, WillThereBeAnotherRateHikeThisYear? The "Hype" and "Real Gold" of On-Chain Stocks
The SEC has opened a conditional pilot program for tokenized stocks, causing $UNI to surge sharply. But more worth pondering than the coin price is that traditional stocks are trying to enter the on-chain trading system.
Regulatory approval does not equal business implementation. Tokenized stocks must satisfy holder rights, trading venues, and information disclosure; simply issuing a token does not represent a share of Apple or Nvidia. For DeFi, this might be a new market; for ordinary traders, the biggest pitfall is mistaking policy progress for project revenue.
Between policy announcements and real revenue lie asset compliance, user education, and liquidity building. How far this track can go depends on whether there are real assets, real users, and real transactions. After the hype fades, the only metric worth watching is how much actual trading volume remains on-chain.
#SEC tokenized stock innovation exemption implemented, UNI surges over 21% intraday
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Funding situation: the biggest contradiction
ETFs are selling, whales are buying.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of about $859 million over nearly 6 trading days, with a single-day outflow of $150.5 million on October 14 alone. However, CryptoQuant data shows that on-chain whale holdings have risen to 3.03 million BTC, with the fastest monthly growth rate since February this year. The statistical scopes of ETFs and whales differ, but the opposing directions are real.
Another signal to watch out for: a certain whale/institution has sold a total of 1,312.1 BTC (about $109 million) over the past 4 days, completely reallocating to buy 43,275 ETH. Capital is rotating from BTC to ETH. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, making profit recovery the focus Just checked the market, wow, BTC has directly dropped below 80,000, ETH fell to around 2,300, OKB, DOGE, and SOL are all plunging, even the stock tokens of SNDK and MU are falling.
In the past 24 hours, 185,000 people were liquidated, totaling $982 million, with over 90% being long positions. A day of bloodbath for the bulls.
Why is everything falling?
The root cause is last night's US September CPI data. Year-over-year 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations. Once the data was released, the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in October instantly surged to nearly 50%. Although it later retreated, the expectation of "higher rates for longer" has reignited.
US stocks crashed first. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2%, European semiconductor stocks plunged, ASML fell over 5%, SK Hynix dropped over 7%. South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted 8%, triggering a circuit breaker.
The crypto market was sold off in tandem but has its own accelerators.
Ethereum contract liquidations reached $286 million, Bitcoin liquidations $197 million, all longs. The long leverage piled up around 80,000-82,000 was triggered by a single needle, and the chain liquidations pushed the price down further.
I currently hold no positions, not because I'm bearish, but because I know that selling at the lowest point during such macro-driven drops is the dumbest move.
Let's chat in the comments, were you buried in this wave or did you dodge it?
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $BTC US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike within the year?
CPI and PPI both significantly surpassed market expectations, with the inflation rebound breaking the previous optimistic market forecast of a gradual decline in inflation. The possibility of another Fed rate hike within the year has risen again. This round of inflation rebound is mainly driven by energy prices, but the core CPI also strengthened simultaneously, indicating that inflation stickiness on the service side has not dissipated. Upstream production price pressures will gradually transmit downstream to consumption, which hits the Fed’s most cautious risk: inflation becoming entrenched again. However, whether to raise rates or not will not be decided solely based on these two monthly data points. A rate hike was just implemented in September, and due to policy lag effects, the Fed needs to observe the ongoing impact of prior tightening on employment and demand. Current employment data already shows signs of weakening; aggressive consecutive rate hikes would amplify recession risks. Therefore, the probability of an immediate rate hike in October remains limited, with more focus on the December FOMC meeting. Going forward, it depends on whether October’s inflation and nonfarm payroll data continue to be strong. If inflation remains persistently high, a second rate hike within the year is highly likely; if employment cools rapidly and oil prices fall, the Fed may choose to pause rate hikes and maintain a high-rate wait-and-see stance. For various assets, inflation exceeding expectations will push up long-term US Treasury yields again, suppressing valuations of growth stocks and crypto assets. The current market expectation is in a rapid re-evaluation phase, with volatility significantly increasing. It is not advisable to simply bet on a single direction; continuous tracking of subsequent economic data and official statements is necessary. #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike within the year?