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#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins I think $NFLX the iconic company is in a tough spot.
The slower growth comments from their Co-CEO this week will be blamed on a shift to live programming.
I don't think that's the actual issue. Live programming does contribute lower watch hours per dollar of content spend… but it also over-indexes in terms of generating new engaged members… which should greatly offset the headwind.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins I think $NFLX the iconic company is in a tough spot.
The slower growth comments from their Co-CEO this week will be blamed on a shift to live programming.
I don't think that's the actual issue. Live programming does contribute lower watch hours per dollar of content spend… but it also over-indexes in terms of generating new engaged members… which should greatly offset the headwind.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.$NEAR 下午那会儿我看 4.5 附近磨了半天，量缩得跟死了一样，心想这玩意儿要么继续阴跌要么来根大的。结果 Bitwise 那个 ETF 持仓的消息一出来，直接一根大阳捅到 5.17。我 4.576 上的车，50x，现在浮盈 590% 出头。
说实话，拿到现在我自己都觉得离谱。
但你让我现在追？我不敢。5.17 那根上影线摆在那儿，MA120 压在 5.21，这位置往上每走一步都是解套盘在砸。我见过太多次了——消息出来拉一根，然后慢慢阴跌回去，追的人全埋里面。
我这单准备 5.17-5.20 附近开始减，能吃到这就谢天谢地了。50x 这东西，浮盈再多你不当回事，一根针回来就什么都白搭。
前两天 STRK 那单我也是这么想的，从 599 拿到 1332，最后还是 0.098 附近跑的。跑完第二天就插了一根针，差点全吐回去。所以这次我学乖了，不贪。
你们要是没上车就别追了，等回踩 4.8-4.9 再看。真要冲 5.21 站稳了再说。#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.现在更像洗筹，不是追涨的时候。 FIL 的减半叙事，真能自己走出一段吗？ 我最近盯 FIL 的衍生品结构，越看越觉得它像一只被拴在 BTC 腰上的风筝。资金费率一翻正，多头就急着加仓，可未平仓合约没跟上，说明杠杆在进，现货却在退。这种背离，往往不是启动，是博弈。 FIL 自身故事偏弱，减半这种利好，放在 BTC 横盘或阴跌里，基本就是给空头递子弹。过去几轮减半行情，FIL 的独立反弹都建立在 BTC 风险偏好回暖的基础上，一旦大饼走弱，它的回撤弹性反而更大，扛跌能力差。 现在衍生品市场在交易什么？交易的是 BTC 会不会稳住，而不是 FIL 减半能带来多少增量。永续合约的持仓量没有明显扩张，期权隐含波动率也偏低，说明大家没在提前押注大行情，更多是短线对赌。这种结构下，FIL 的减半预期被提前计价了一部分，但没人愿意用真金白银去追。 偏多的路径只有一条：BTC 先站稳，资金费率回归中性，未平仓合约温和放大，FIL 才可能借减半叙事走一段补涨。偏空的风险更直接：只要 BTC 一抖，FIL 的多头杠杆就会被迫平仓，形成负反馈，跌得比大饼还快。 山寨季没来之前，FIL 很难脱离 BTC 走独立PYTH 22天+57%，10-15这次突破为什么不一样
$PYTH从09-24的0.060涨到今天0.0946，22天+57%。今天+18.36%，最高0.10093，成交3090万美元，是30天均量1.7倍。
不是情绪冲顶，是三段式结构：
蓄势（09-30到10-13） 价格在0.073–0.090区间窄幅震荡14天，日成交400–500万。典型「建仓区」——量稳、价收敛。
破门（10-14） +3.07%站上0.085阻力位，量没放大——「破门探路」。
放量（10-15） +21.13%，最高0.10093，量2974万是前14天均量4倍。资金费率中性，OI只增8%——增量主要来自现货不是杠杆。结构最干净。
为什么是现在？Solana Q4 DeFi（Kamino、Drift）TVL回升，预言机调用量直接受益。$PYTH作为Solana主流预言机有基本面支撑。
但00:00日线已回吐-2.72%。回踩0.090不破就是健康确认；放量跌破0.085则突破失败。
4H首次冲0.10整数关口，你们觉得$PYTH能站稳吗？Brothers, yesterday was the first day after the halving, dropping from 1.27 back to 1.08. Many people grumbled saying, "The good news is all out, FIL is doomed." But today the official team released a heavy, detailed infographic — "The Filecoin Flywheel," serving you a solid dish directly. Looking at this image, I read it three times repeatedly, and only one thought came to mind: the short-term "price speculation" is over, and the long-term "value flywheel" has officially started. Don't be fooled by daily-level fluctuations; let's break down the official "major progress this month" to see what fundamental changes really happened after the halving: 🎯 Fundamental Change One: The Solstice proposal is officially implemented, completely changing the reward logic. Official text: More shares allocated to services that bring paying customers to the network; consensus mining shares reduced; unearned service shares will be destroyed. This is ruthless! Previously, miners could just keep their hard drives running and share the big pot, but not anymore. This part of the reward is only given to service providers who "can bring real customers." If no customers are brought in, this reward won't be released and will be destroyed directly. This directly blocks miners' "inflation dumping" logic, forcing the entire network to engage in real business. 🎯 Fundamental Change Two: The supply "faucet" has been turned off. Official confirmation: The distribution lock-up periods for Protocol Labs and Filecoin Foundation will end as planned, like in 2020. The daily amount of new FIL entering circulation has decreased by about 75%. Daily selling pressure fromCPI利空压顶：加息预期升至40%，多军一夜被扫
CPI数据偏空，交易员把下一次加息押注抬到40%。美股与加密大盘同步重挫，纳指跌近2%，BTC下杀至82000附近。
▪ 亚盘雪上加霜
韩日股市开盘跳水，风险偏好骤降。下午盘能否守住成为短线关键，但午后受挫严重，亚盘未能稳住阵脚。
▪ 爆仓集中爆破多军
24小时近5亿美元爆仓，多军损失约4亿美元，杠杆多头被集中清算。
▪ 晚间美股仍不乐观
美股开盘预期偏弱，若继续下探，加密市场很难独立走强。
眼下先看亚盘尾盘和美股开盘，别急着接飞刀。#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $BTC looks for a rebound continuation. It closed 24h at +0.39%, after dipping to 79,732.3 before pulling back. During the dip, the amount of long positions liquidated was roughly twice that of shorts; this round of leverage was squeezed out. The pressure from long liquidations has already passed once, and the price still closed in the green, indicating some support near the previous low. Options trading on the day leaned bearish, even higher than the ratio in the open interest structure, with most new trades being protective buys. Sentiment remains defensive, so there is less fuel for a decline. The moving averages on the chart show a bearish alignment, which is a result of the previous drop; moving averages themselves lag. The previous low has already been tested once and held; now the focus is on that previous low itself. Conditions for a bearish reversal: breaking below 79,732.3 and failing to recover, indicating that after long positions are cleared, no one is stepping in to buy, so treat it as a new low and invalidate the bullish view."The chain is making money, but the coin may not be valuable"
All three chains have income, yet prices remain stagnant. The market begins to ask: who exactly is the profit flowing to?
$BTC's fees and block rewards go to miners, not coin holders. Miners sell coins to pay electricity bills, creating continuous selling pressure. Holders receive no dividends, only share scarcity. No matter how active the chain is, it’s hard to directly push up the coin price; BTC relies on consensus, not cash flow.
$ETH's Gas fees are diverted to L2, weakening the mainnet's value capture. Although EIP-1559 burns fees, the more prosperous L2 becomes, the less burning occurs. Stakers receive issuance and priority fees, but issuance dilutes non-stakers. The cash flow narrative of ETH increasingly requires explanation.
$SOL's fees and MEV go to validators and stakers. Inflation subsidizes validators, diluting ordinary holders. The more active the ecosystem, the more validators earn, while holders can only wait for price appreciation. It’s more like using inflation to buy security.
On-chain income does not equal token value. The key is not whether the chain is busy, but whether income returns to the token. Tokens that cannot capture income can only rise based on sentiment and consensus; those that can capture income have a long-term foundation.
So, don’t ask if the chain is busy first; ask whose pocket the money is going into. Are you holding an asset, or fuel working for someone else?
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover?
#Trading Voice: Your experience deserves to be heard I think the market now views Netflix like an old director who has made hit movies for many years.
The audience is still there, advertisers have come, but investors are starting to ask: how many new stories can you still produce?
Q3 revenue is expected to be $12.86 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase; operating margin is expected to be 33.2%, further up from 28.2% in the same period last year.
This shows that Netflix not only wants to rely on subscription fees to sustain itself but also wants advertising to become a new cash machine.
But the problem is very real: whether advertising can support a second growth curve is the real highlight of this earnings report.
My view is that revenue growth is expected, but the increase in profit margin is what deserves close attention. After all, no matter how good the story is, the final accounting matters.
In summary, Netflix is transforming from a content seller relying on memberships into an entertainment business that sells both tickets and advertising.
#NetflixGrowthMaySlow AdvertisingBusinessBecomesNewFocus #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 看空索尼：PS主机步入周期尾声，硬件销量持续下滑，游戏业务收购减值、独占内容产出不及预期。AI逆向技术加速打破Switch等平台壁垒，模拟器与破解侵蚀主机生态护城河。影视业务增长乏力，消费电子萎缩；图像传感器竞争加剧，AI布局滞后。集团业务分散，资本投入效率偏低，叠加汇率扰动，中长期盈利缺少强支撑。#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 并不看好#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
从走势来看$SNDK 闪迪并不算很贵与之前高点相比，但闪迪，海力士这类存储板块上涨，更多依赖于AI行情
个人相对认为虽然AI等科技股有所回撤，但实际上回顾这轮AI行情🚀持续时间并不算长，低位等待价值回归
需求侧的扩大从而间接也能刺激闪迪海力士这类存储板块的上涨
短期来看虽然有消息说明长鑫存储有技术突破，市场担忧价格会下降，实际上到真正量产，制造成本等等还需要时间和市场检验，并且需要注意的是长鑫存储突破是针对某一存储突破并非是全方位突破，因此闪迪等存储巨头存在一定的技术优势
此外存储等多个美国板块下跌，个人认为可能与市场预计流动性收紧有关，闪迪业务能否高增长还与需求侧与流动性有一定关系，注意风险！
@OKX星球 @八喜Zora_OKX #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 RaizelXbt剛剛這單$BTC 日內短線空單，九點多插針剛好觸發79868止盈，80711附近進場，差不多一千點的盈利。
80711–81063是潛在空頭回調區，紅色框（79868–80711）是急跌承壓區，這種"快速插針+弱反彈"的結構，若無量能配合，反彈更傾向於空頭繼續施壓，RaizelXbt的做空邏輯還是很有參考價值的。#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
台积电交出亮眼成绩单，反映出AI芯片需求依然强劲，也再次证明先进制程在全球半导体产业中的重要地位。
在AI算力需求持续增长的背景下，台积电凭借先进制程和技术优势，有望继续受益于行业发展。
不过，业绩创新高并不意味着股价一定继续上涨。接下来还要关注AI订单能否持续增长、资本开支是否进一步扩大，以及市场估值是否已经充分反映未来预期。
个人观点：AI产业的长期逻辑仍值得关注，但投资不能只看业绩，更要看增长能否持续，以及当前股价是否合理。
你认为，台积电的强劲业绩能否带动整个半导体板块继续走强？#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 奈飞的核心矛盾：全球付费会员基数接近天花板，单纯靠涨价、打击账号共享拉动的订阅收入增长已经明显减速；广告业务增速很高，但体量还很小，属于“小而快”的第二增长曲线，而不是立刻撑起大盘的引擎。#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Netflix的广告层级持续增长，但利润率仍是关注重点。广告可能成为主要的收入驱动力，但需要时间来扩大规模。广告业务是真正的第二增长支柱，还是仅仅是一个不错的附加项？
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
特斯拉汽车交付已经提前公布、是超预期的；但毛利率、EPS、自由现金流大概率很难超预期，甚至低于一致预期，这是当前最大矛盾点
1、已经落地的前置数据（已经price in一部分）
• 汽车交付：48.65万辆，一致预期46.38万，+5%超预期；交付>产量，在去库存
• 储能装机：13.7GWh，环比几乎持平，不算亮眼、略低于很多卖方期待（之前不少预期15GWh+）#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike this year? The prices we see now are priced with a 28% rate hike probability. The PCE+GDP data is very likely to push the rate hike probability higher. Data still has continuity.#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
美国通胀再次升温，CPI 与 PPI 双双超预期，让市场重新关注美联储加息的可能性。
CPI 反映消费者面临的价格压力，PPI 则反映企业生产端的成本变化。两项数据同时走高，意味着通胀压力可能不仅存在于消费端，还可能沿着产业链进一步传导。
那么，美联储年内会再次加息吗？
关键要看接下来三个信号：核心通胀是否持续走高、就业市场是否依然强劲，以及能源价格能否企稳。
如果通胀持续反弹，美联储可能推迟降息，甚至重新考虑加息；如果通胀只是受到短期能源冲击，经济增长又开始放缓，美联储也可能选择暂时观望。
个人观点：相比押注美联储是否立即加息，更值得关注的是市场的降息预期是否正在逆转。
一旦高利率维持时间超出市场预期，美元、黄金、美股都可能面临新的波动。
接下来，通胀数据与美联储官员的表态，将成为影响市场走势的重要变量。
你认为，美联储年内还会加息吗？欢迎在评论区交流。 $STRK Bearish Perspective: Data is more honest than sentiment (￣▽￣)~*
1-hour EMA shows a bearish alignment, trend favors sellers. The long-short ratio is 180%, longs are too crowded, which is often not a good sign. Looking at cost: average long price is 0.0822, average short price is 0.0875, current price is 0.0845. Shorts have about 84% unrealized profit, longs have less than 20% profit left, it's clear who is more anxious (・ω・)ノ#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #Netflix growth may slow down, advertising business becomes a new focus Netflix's core dilemma: the global paid subscriber base is nearing its ceiling, and subscription revenue growth driven solely by price increases and cracking down on account sharing has clearly slowed down; the advertising business is growing rapidly but still very small in scale, representing a "small and fast" second growth curve rather than an engine that immediately supports the main business.⚠️Risk Warning: This is only a personal review record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.
With the release of CPI data, many are worried about a major drop in $BTC😨
Let's calmly look at the essence: the trouble this time is that the core CPI simultaneously rose to 2.6%. The increase is not solely driven by oil prices; internal core prices are also rising, making inflationary pressure more stubborn.
After the data release, BTC quickly fell from 83900 to around 81850. Core CPI month-over-month was 0.3%, higher than the market estimate of 0.2%, and year-over-year at 2.6%, also surpassing the 2.5% expectation. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield rose directly by 13 basis points, and the market's probability expectation for an October rate hike surged from less than 22% to over 50%🔥
The short-term market logic is very clear: liquidity tightening expectations lead to capital withdrawal, combined with panic selling, and in a strengthening dollar environment, risk assets are collectively under pressure. Key support to watch below is the 81500–80000 range; if broken, the next support is at 79000. Resistance above is in the 83000–83500 range.
In terms of operations, do not rush to buy the dip; the spike and shakeout will likely continue. You can wait for the price to pull back near 81000 and show volume-based stabilization signals before considering light long positions, with a stop loss at 79800 and a rebound target of 82700–83500. Persistently high core inflation is currently the biggest bearish factor, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish confidence remains strong🦅
Expectations are heating up, and the market continues to be under pressure
$BTC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins TSMC's Q3 exploded again, with a net profit of 763 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 68.7%, hitting a historic high. But the crypto world hasn't gained a single cent from it. $BTC 82,430, $ETH 2,400, $ZEC 1,147, all just stuck in place.
I think the most painful thing for the crypto world about TSMC's huge earnings isn't that the "positive news hasn't been transmitted," but that even the "AI narrative soup" is almost out of reach.
TSMC's HPC (High-Performance Computing) now accounts for 68% of revenue, and 3nm and 5nm processes consume 70% of advanced process capacity. AI giants are lining up to grab chips, but the crypto crowd can't even get in line.
Bitcoin has been stuck around 82,000 for a week, funding rate +0.0029%, both bulls and bears are too lazy to move. Like a transfer student forgotten by the homeroom teacher, making no mistakes but also not getting any gold stars.
Ethereum's RSI is neutral. I have no position, but watching SOL and Dogecoin bouncing around nearby, ETH looks like a well-behaved kid, all the excitement belongs to others.
ZEC saw $1.89 million in short positions explode in 24 hours. Grayscale's ETF quietly surpassed $1 billion in size, NU7 upgrade countdown underway. This guy is quietly having a private meal in the corner, basically decoupled from the broader market.
I think the best thing to do now is to hold your hands. TSMC's capital expenditure is smashed to $60-64 billion, all the money going into AI infrastructure, not crypto. Wait for this AI spending wave to pass, then see where the water level rises. #TSMCQ3NetProfitExceedsExpectations, Profit Hits Historic High
@你的爱播Misa @bilibili交易姬 So if I were to take SNDK, I might prefer it around 1000-1100. Also, this wave of correction feels like it could only hold up to 1400-1450 at most. $SNDK SanDisk｜The 1372 level was pierced pre-market, but my judgment criteria only consider the daily closing pattern. Since the close did not reclaim this level, the subsequent target is 1157.
The previous price was 28 points away from the target, which I judged as not a valid touch; today, after a pre-market surge to 1341, it successfully reached 1372. However, trading discipline remains strict: a brief intraday break is not considered a valid breakout; we must wait for the daily close. If the close does not reclaim 1372, support failure is confirmed.
The market signals are very clear. The previous day attempted to hold above 1420 but never returned above 1500, and weakness continued after the open. This round of decline in the storage sector is not a short-term shakeout but a trend pullback.
1372, as a core daily-level support, has now been probed and pierced pre-market. At this stage, I will not blindly enter to catch the bottom. Until a clear stop-fall signal appears, every rebound should be treated primarily as an opportunity to reduce losses, not as a trend reversal.
If the daily close recovers above 1372: this defines an oversold rebound market, with the first resistance at 1420 and stronger resistance at 1500. If 1500 cannot be held, the overall direction remains bearish.
If the daily close confirms a break below 1372: the next downside target is 1157, with significant downward space from 1341 to 1157.
The trend has not shown reversal signals, so do not subjectively guess the bottom. For the market to truly strengthen, it must first reclaim 1372 and then break through 1500. The entire process remains a downtrend $SNDK #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Netflix Q3 earnings report will be released after market close on October 20.
The company's baseline: revenue of 12.86 billion, operating profit margin of 33.2%.
Advertising business is a highlight, but only a patch, unlikely to reverse the overall growth slowdown.
Currently, 69% of the market predicts it will exceed expectations; optimism is already maxed out.
Meeting expectations ≠ exceeding expectations; to get a Yes, membership or advertising business must significantly surpass market imagination.
On the profit and loss ratio, No has the advantage.
⚠️Personal observation, not trading advice #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight; earnings report might not look very good#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind the.The impact of the CPI has just been digested, and the PPI data has once again exceeded expectations⚡
In the afternoon, $ETH slowly recovered from the low of 2315, rebounding above 2400. I originally planned to wait for the price to stall in the 2400-2450 range before entering a second short position. Unexpectedly, once the PPI data was released in the evening, this brief rebound was immediately interrupted.
This time the data clearly exceeded market expectations: the PPI annual rate reached 6.3%, while the market had only expected 5.3%, marking a nearly five-month high; the monthly rate recorded 1.3%, sharply higher than the 0.5% forecast, and retail data at 0.8% also beat expectations.
CPI and PPI have consecutively surprised on the upside, and since PPI represents upstream production costs, its strength means inflationary pressure will continue to transmit downward, making short-term inflation hard to ease. Meanwhile, strong retail data indicates economic resilience remains, and the Federal Reserve has no sufficient reason to pivot to easing. This is the core logic behind my continued bearish outlook.
On the $BTC side, the supports at 81000 and 80000 are precarious. The afternoon rebound of ETH, under the pressure of heavy data, looks more like an opportunity for bears to enter. In the past 24 hours, 185,000 people have been liquidated, with liquidation amounts totaling 980 million USD, the vast majority being long orders.
The first short position has already secured a profit of 176 points. Next, I will continue to wait for rebound opportunities; as long as the upward momentum is weak, the second short position will follow accordingly.
#InflationDataSurprisesContinue,MarketPressureTestsSupport
$ETH $BTC $OKB previously frankly had a premium due to a launch event. Thought perps had some big positive news to consume OKB, but in the end found out it had nothing to do with it, directly a big negative.# Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Only a few days left until streaming giant Netflix releases its Q3 earnings report—answers will be revealed after the U.S. market closes on October 20.
📊 First, let's look at the company's "reference answers":
▪️ Revenue forecast: about $12.86 billion, up approximately 12% year-over-year
▪️ Operating margin: 33.2%, compared to only 28.2% in the same period last year
🔍 But what the market is really watching are these two questions:
1️⃣ Is growth really about to "slow down"?
A 12% growth rate is no longer impressive for Netflix. With user growth nearing its peak and multiple price hikes, how long can price increases continue to support growth? This is the market's biggest concern.
2️⃣ Can the advertising business become the "second curve"?
This is the biggest highlight of this earnings report! How many subscribers are on ad-supported plans? How much revenue does advertising contribute? Has ARPU (average revenue per user) truly been boosted? Once these "hard data" are disclosed, they will directly determine whether Netflix's future growth story holds up.
💡 What to make of it?
On paper, revenue is steady and profit margins hit new highs—data looks good. But the key question is whether the 33.2% high profit margin is "saved" or "earned"? If it comes from cutting content investment, Q4 guidance may disappoint investors.
Therefore, the core of this earnings report is not "whether they made money," but rather—does the advertising business really work? $CORE ✅Top 5 Core Bearish Reasons from Overseas Traders, X (Twitter), and Overseas Research Reports 1. Fundamental Flaw in Token Emission Model (Most Commonly Mentioned Overseas) Overseas users highly value tokenomics: CORE’s BTC staking system continuously issues new CORE tokens as rewards for every BTC staked, flooding the circulating market with new tokens. In contrast to STX: STX’s bonding mechanism involves BTC coming in, locking STX, and reducing circulation. Overseas community conclusion: CORE’s token model is inflation-driven; the larger the BTCFi business, the greater the selling pressure on CORE. Supply and demand are naturally inverse, putting long-term price support under pressure. 2. Large Unlocks + Continuous Release of Early Holdings CORE’s total supply is 2.1 billion, with a long unlocking period and token rewards released continuously over 81 years. Overseas on-chain data enthusiasts have been monitoring long-term: validator rewards, early investors, and team shares are continuously unlocking and flowing out; Moreover, in September, a validator exploit allowed some to claim excess CORE rewards. Although the project team urgently fixed it, overseas traders remain seriously concerned: the token issuance rules have vulnerabilities, posing risks of unexpected over-issuance and damaging trust. 3. Liquidity Continues to Shrink, Multiple Exchanges Delisting Overseas community statistics: many small and medium exchanges have already delisted CORE spot trading; Order book depth is thinning, slippage is huge, and trading volume in the last two days has shrunk directly to less than $1 million. Overseas traders’ view: liquidity is the foundation of the coin price, and buy-side support is increasinglyNot chasing shorts near 80,000 is San Ma Ge's most firm judgment in this situation; but being bullish does not mean all long positions should be stubbornly held. @SanMaGeBenGe regards the BTC 80,000 level as important support, while repeatedly advising those with overly heavy positions and liquidation levels too close to use the rebound to exit most of their positions first. Confidence in direction cannot replace the account's ability to withstand drawdowns.
First, look at $BTC. He believes that even if the 80,000 level is briefly broken, it may only be a stop-loss sweep followed by a recovery, so one should not chase shorts just because the round number is breached. This is his starting point for going long that night, not a guarantee that 80,000 will never be broken. During intraday price tests around this area, he still treated it as a support zone and gave a long attempt near 80,188; another lower pending order did not execute precisely, so it cannot be claimed as filled just because it was touched.
The change in this situation lies in how to handle the rebound once it appears. Earlier, he mentioned exiting near 81,200 first, then observing turnover; later, as the rebound developed, he treated the 82,000 to 82,588 range as a zone for partial profit-taking and pressure observation, and set the higher 84,000 level as a subsequent focus. Although the bullish direction remains the same, the intraday execution is not a static set of orders from start to finish.
Especially for those who already have long positions and continue to add at low levels, he repeatedly requested reducing by half first. For accounts still heavily positioned near cost, the reduction requirement was further raised to over 70%. The reason is straightforward: during the same volatility, light positions can wait for structure, but heavy positions may hit liquidation before the judgment is realized.$BTC just lost $966M in leveraged longs but the bigger signal is who isn’t selling September PPI jumped 1.3% vs 0.6% expected, while CPI hit 3.7% YoY raising Fed rate-hike concerns BTC dipped to $80.2K as spot ETFs saw $261M in outflows and risk-off sentiment intensified Meanwhile whales are buying while retail sells, and long-term holder realized losses have fallen 85% My view: Not capitulation yet, but risk remains high Below $80K $78K, then $75K Holding $80K could help absorb the inflation The Fed's script might be torn up.
At the June meeting, 18 members submitted their interest rate expectations, but the chair did not. His comment was that his colleagues' forecasts were written in pencil, with a big eraser.
The Communications Reform Working Group is already reviewing whether forward guidance, the dot plot, and minutes should remain. It's not about immediate abolition, but first assessing if they are worth keeping.
Without official guidance, the market can only focus on CPI, nonfarm payrolls, U.S. Treasuries, and the dollar; data will speak, and no one will leak hints in advance. Pricing for $BTC $ETH will become more fragmented and volatile.Hello brothers and sisters
Brothers! The capital flow direction has turned!
Latest data: On Tuesday, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $175.6 million, hitting the highest single-day level since October 2; Ethereum spot ETF also had a net inflow of $24.8 million, temporarily ending a 10-day streak of net outflows.
Funds were still withdrawing the day before, but today there is capital replenishment, switching speed is very fast. What’s more worth noting is that despite hotter-than-expected CPI data and disrupted rate cut expectations, BTC was not broken down, indicating support at the lower end.
My judgment: Short-term sentiment is recovering, but a single day of inflow cannot yet be considered a trend. The focus next is on three points: first, whether net inflows can continue; second, whether trading volume expands simultaneously; third, whether macro pressure will return. If inflows continue for two or three days, confidence will be more solid; if it’s just a pulse, the market may still fluctuate.
Don’t rush, wait for confirmation. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, profits hit a record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Recently, I came across a set of BTC historical data that I found quite interesting. Someone noticed that after the past several U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has experienced a phase low for a period of time. 📊 According to historical statistics: 🔹 2014: About 71 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. 🔹 2018: About 39 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. 🔹 2022: About 13 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. From 71 days to 39 days, then to 13 days, the time seems to be getting shorter. Seeing this, many might wonder: Could BTC also bottom out quickly after the 2026 midterm election? 🤔 Honestly, this pattern is indeed interesting, but I think it can't be directly applied. First, just because a similar trend appeared three times in history doesn't mean it will repeat the fourth time. The market environments in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were not the same. The Federal Reserve policies, global liquidity, institutional participation levels, and even BTC's own market size have all changed significantly. More importantly, the way historical lows are selected also affects the statistical results. 📉 Secondly, I pay more attention to the capital changes when BTC declines. Here is an indicator worth observing: Open Interest (OI). If BTC falls and OI significantly decreases, it may indicate some leveraged positions are exiting. But if the price keeps falling and OI increases instead, further judgment is needed to determine if new short capital is entering. Of course, based on OPolygon has completed the acquisition of Coinme, integrating the US dollar on/off ramp into its own payment services. The official announcement on October 14 stated that the service covers 48 states, composed of 37 state-level money transmitter licenses and exemptions applicable in 11 states, not 48 licenses in total.
The first beneficiaries are payment companies and multinational payroll enterprises. Previously, they had to separately connect bank deposits, on-chain transfers, and local currency withdrawals. Now, they can connect through a single service, reducing handoffs between vendors. The first batch of clients includes Tazapay, Mesh, Toku, and Kira.
For example, with Toku, after employees receive stablecoins, they can deposit into wallets and exchange for local currency within the same payroll process. Fewer service providers to switch between may reduce waiting and operational costs; the actual savings depend on fees, arrival speed, and local availability.
This is generally positive for Polygon's payment business, but the announcement did not disclose new transaction volumes or POL purchase arrangements. Payment services are regulated, but this does not mean the POL token has regulatory endorsement. Future developments will depend on the actual payment scale and how much usage converts into fee demand on the Polygon chain.
Source and images: Polygon official website acquisition completion announcement on 10/14, reviewed on 10/16. Below, POL refers to the spot market price of the Polygon token. $POL