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What is the most profitable business in the crypto circle?
Today's top five by fees:
1. Papertrade Fees 7.33 million, Revenue 7.33 million, Retention rate 100%
2. $PUMP Fees 5.65 million, Revenue 2.04 million, Retention rate 36%
3. $HYPE Fees 3.47 million, Revenue 2.64 million, Retention rate 76%
4. $UNI Fees 3.32 million, Revenue 0.32 million, Retention rate 10%
5. Polymarket Fees 3.24 million, Revenue 0.60 million, Retention rate 18%
The new Papertrade protocol launch is indeed impressive, 3.76 million → 5.73 million → 7.33 million, doubling in two days. Surpassing PUMP.
While PUMP barely moved in three days: 6.29 → 5.83 → 5.65 million.
Retention rates are still the most interesting:
HYPE 76%, PUMP 36%, Polymarket 18%, UNI only 10%.
Charging the same fees, HYPE retains 76 out of every 100 units, UNI only 10, the rest goes to LP.
If you don't know which coin to buy, you can refer to this list. The most vulnerable link is actually the HYPE short position that is still stubbornly holding on. Have you noticed that the positions that should really panic are often not the ones losing the most? I just saw Maji's contract account, with a portfolio of short BTC, long ETH, and short HYPE. The BTC short is 40x full position, with a floating profit of 568,000 U, and the funding fee even earned 64,000, with a liquidation price at 104,380, which is quite far away, so this part is temporarily a safety cushion. The ETH long is 25x, with a floating loss of 920,000 U, liquidation price at 1,623, still with some buffer. The really glaring one is the HYPE short, 5x full position, floating loss of 3,900,000 U, and just the funding fee paid 1,040,000, with a liquidation price hanging at 99.76. What does this mean? He is using the profits from the BTC short to subsidize a HYPE short that is completely opposite in direction. This is not hedging; this is using a profitable position to keep a losing position alive. What the market is trading now is actually two narratives fighting: one is BTC being re-priced as a risk asset, the other is high beta assets like HYPE still being artificially supported by capital. Maji's portfolio happens to stitch these two narratives together, but the stitching is a bit crooked. Where is the bullish logic? The BTC short has already made significant profits, indicating the market's pricing of macro and risk appetite is moving towards a conservative direction. At such times, capital often first contracts into BTC before deciding whether to spread out. Although the ETH long is losing, its liquidation price is far away,#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins INJ pulled from 7.06 to 8.85 in two days, can the rally sparked by the fixed Gas proposal continue?
Injective made a pretty decisive move this round. INJ current price is 8.69, +1.82%, 24h low 7.063, high 8.849, a 25% range in two days, consolidating near the highs, with a market cap of 872 million.
The driver is solid: 10-13 project teams proposed fixed Gas — setting predictable gas costs for order placement and cancellation, paired with USDC migration transition, on 10-14 it responded with +11.7%, and funds have been buying steadily these two days. This is a structural narrative of ecosystem upgrade, not just hype.
How’s the chart? Price stands above MA5/30/120 all moving averages, supertrend at 8.46 is underfoot, but MACD’s DIF is slightly below DEA, RSI(24) at 71.9 is high — after the surge, it’s in a digestion phase. 24h volume is 5.21 million USDT, liquidity is healthy, not thin.
Watch three signals: whether the 8.753 resistance can break out with volume; whether RSI high level will plateau or turn down; the voting/implementation schedule of the fixed Gas proposal.
Personal view: this move is fundamentally driven and justified, but after a 25% rise in two days, short-term attention to rhythm is needed, chasing highs is less advisable than watching for pullbacks. DYOR, not investment advice.
#INJ #Injective #DeFiadvertising business.
The company’s own guidance is Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%. Operating margin is expected to be 33.2%, up 5 percentage points from 28.2% in the same period last year. Both revenue and margin are rising, but the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to previous years. The market’s concern is that Netflix’s subscription growth has peaked, so what will support it going forward? Hello brothers and sisters, I am a PhD.
In the intervals of closely watching the BTC market, you can observe the unusual movements in the precious metals market. International spot gold broke through the $4170 mark, rising 1.6% in a single day; silver showed even stronger momentum, surging 3% intraday.
This capital signal is far more meaningful as a reference than simply watching the fluctuations of the coin price. Currently, global safe-haven funds are continuously flowing into the gold and silver markets. In contrast, Bitcoin only found support and began to rebound after dipping to 79,700 points the previous night, completely failing to absorb this wave of safe-haven buying.
The market has long propagated the idea that Bitcoin is equivalent to "digital gold." However, whenever panic spreads and capital makes real choices, BTC’s movement often resembles a highly volatile risk asset following Nasdaq fluctuations rather than a safe haven asset. This market divergence has repeatedly occurred.
If you are trading with leverage, be clear-headed: do not be misled by various stories in the market; always prioritize tracking real capital flows. The strengthening gold price and Bitcoin’s pressure are the most straightforward market answers right now.
So I want to ask everyone, as of today, do you still recognize Bitcoin as having safe-haven properties?
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes a focus $BTC $ETH $SOL "Small Wealth Brings Peace" Weekly Review (10/10–10/15): The Bullet Strategy Really Worked This Time—No Panic in Deep Traps, Averaging Down, Unwinding on Rebound, Taking Profits, Full Closed Loop Completed, Account in the Green.
1. Results First
This week, the asset account ended in the green with a cumulative profit of +¥416.61. As of October 15, the total book profit is +¥5,430.72. I’m trading contracts, and all these profits come from contract positions. At the worst point, the account lost -4.7K in a single day, but thanks to a violent rebound on the 15th, it recovered sharply. After the rebound, I basically cleared my positions to lock in profits, leaving only the gains to keep running. The total realized P&L from contracts over the past 7 days is -¥948.85, mainly due to operational errors. Overall, this was a week where the strategy fully took effect.
2. What I Went Through This Week
The 10th and 11th were pretty normal with small gains of +470 and +144 respectively, a good rhythm. On the 12th and 13th, the account started to pull back, -210 and -708, with two consecutive days of slow decline. I followed the bullet strategy and averaged down. On the 14th, the account lost -4.7K in a single day, the toughest day this week. By then, I had basically used up the funds for averaging down; if it dropped further, I couldn’t invest more and had to hold.
Then on the 15th, the market violently rebounded with a single-day gain of +5.4K, and the account quickly recovered. The positions I averaged down on were fully recovered. After the rebound, I mostly cleared my positions, leaving only profits to keep running. There was also one accidental trade losing about 1,500 purely due to a slip of the finger, unrelated to the strategy.
3. Logic and Advantages of This Strategy
This week, the bullet strategy truly worked, not just luck. First, my judgment of the oversold zone was accurate. The averaging down points from the 12th to 14th were generally good, and most positions were rescued by the rebound, proving the selection logic stands up to live testing. Second, my mindset and execution were solid: at the worst point on the 14th with -4.7K, I didn’t cut losses or panic but held as planned. This is the most challenging part of the strategy, and I held firm. Finally, the handling after unwinding was decisive—no greed, basically clearing positions to lock in profits, leaving only gains to run. Stock selection, mindset, and closing out—these three links all worked this time. This full closed loop of the strategy running smoothly for the first time is the biggest gain this week.
4. But I Have to Be Honest with Myself
I must acknowledge the achievements and also the problems, which are concentrated in two points.
First, the operational error can’t be overlooked. The 1,500 loss wasn’t from the market but from myself. A slip of the finger, basically a missing discipline gate, fingers faster than the brain. This kind of loss is the most frustrating and shouldn’t happen—the money earned by the strategy can’t be lost to a slip.
Second, the fund planning for averaging down can be more precise. On the 14th, I almost couldn’t average down anymore—not because of liquidation risk, but because the bullet strategy had used up all available funds. If it dropped further, there would be no room to operate. This shows my layering and scale per layer of averaging down were still "winging it" without a total plan. This time the judgment was right and the market cooperated; next time with the same position strategy, I should leave more buffer.
5. Execution Checklist (Must Answer All Before Next Position Opening)
Before opening a position, first clarify if the market is ranging or trending; if you can’t identify range characteristics, don’t add a second bullet. If there’s no specific numeric standard for oversold indicators and it’s just a feeling, no opening. The total number of bullet layers and size per layer must be fixed in advance, and under no circumstances should the total averaging down exceed 80% of available funds. The remaining 20% is reserved as a tactical buffer for judgment errors to avoid running out of funds. Also, set a clear cutoff: if after how many layers there’s still no rebound, stop averaging and hold. Set a forced stop-loss at a certain total loss level. Set profit-taking levels in advance, and decide at which rebound points to take profits in batches. Finally, any "clear all" or "close all" button must have a double confirmation and a 3-second pause before key operations—this week’s 1,500 loss was the tuition for ignoring this.
6. One-Sentence Summary
The bullet strategy really worked this time: accurate judgment, holding firm, decisive profit-taking. The two lessons to improve are—fingers must be slower than the brain, and leave one layer of bullet buffer.PPI surges, yet BTC snatches back 80,000: selling pressure may have already been exhausted
Last night, PPI year-on-year rose 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, commodity prices up 2.6%, energy soaring 10.8%; service prices also increased by 0.8%. This is not just a simple oil price disturbance, but a simultaneous heating of production costs and service side, giving the Fed even more reason to maintain a hawkish stance.
Normally, US Treasury yields should continue to surge, and BTC should follow suit by dropping below 80,000. But the market played out the opposite script: US Treasuries did not continue their advance, BTC dipped to a low of 79,775, then quickly reclaimed 80,000, now rebounding near 82,294.
This does not mean PPI has become bullish; rather, CPI drops, leverage liquidations, and pre-data risk-off reductions have already released some selling pressure in advance. After the data release, no new sell orders appeared, and short-sellers taking profits actually turned into buying pressure.
However, we cannot call a reversal just yet. 82,643 is the 24-hour high and also the confirmation line for this recovery. Only a volume breakout above and a retest holding 82,000 would qualify for a target of 83,500–84,000; if it fails to break 82,643 and falls back below 81,800, this move looks more like a position repair after a sharp drop. If 79,775 is lost again, watch out for support between 79,000 and 78,000.
$BTC #USCPIandPPIbeatexpectations, can there be another rate hike this year? #OKXPlanetTopic is here October 16 SUI Watch: As trading heats up, will on-chain activity speed up as well?
This morning, SUI's rolling 24-hour spot trading volume on Binance was about 69.1 million USDT, with the price rising approximately 2.50%. The trading on screen is lively, but exchange volume and actual on-chain operation are two different things; one number cannot serve as proof for the other.
Sui organizes on-chain assets and states into objects. Objects independently controlled by individuals can follow a fast processing path; objects shared by multiple people require consensus ordering. These two types of objects handle different tasks, and whether applications can run in parallel also depends on whether users are competing to modify the same shared object.
It's like everyone editing their own files versus everyone scrambling to edit the same spreadsheet: underlying support for parallelism does not mean every application is equally fast in all situations. Official documentation also warns that write contention on the same shared object may reduce throughput.
Another easily overlooked detail is storage fees. Creating or modifying objects requires paying related fees; deleting or shrinking objects can refund part of the storage fee; immutable objects cannot be deleted, so no such refunds can be obtained. This is a cost arrangement for data occupancy and cannot be directly inferred as a cause for coin price increases.
Next, we will observe real application usage and congestion situations, while also paying attention to contract, liquidity, and price volatility risks, and not take today's trading heat as full evidence of technical implementation.
$SUI #SUI
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 10/16 On-Chain Observation | “Whales Didn’t Sell” ≠ No Selling Pressure on Meme.
Bitquery's revised Solana $ANSEM tracking on 10/15 (holding snapshot at 10/15 06:19 UTC) shows: two addresses classified as Ansem-related by transfer behavior collectively hold 580.4 million tokens (58.2%); the two main DEX pools have 11,720 SOL on the SOL side, worth about $1.2 million at that time. No direct sales were observed from major addresses on Solana DEX, but active addresses cumulatively distributed 73.9 million tokens to other wallets; the first 9 recipients had sold about $2.62 million worth by 10/15.
My judgment: holding market value ≠ actual exit depth. Simplifying pressure simulation with a large single pool, if 1% of the related holdings above were sold, the pool price might drop about 62%; this is not an executed sell order, nor the market-wide transaction price.
Going forward, monitor real DEX sell orders after related address transfers, pool SOL reserves, and net buy orders: if depth expands, impact should be reassessed; if transfers increase but buy orders do not, tail risk rises. Address attribution is only behavioral inference and cannot be used to blame individuals.Bitcoin $BTC What's next?
Yesterday: I predicted it would go up ("bad news fully priced in is good news"), but the price first dropped to 79,800, then pulled back to 82,600 — it was really frustrating.
1. Compared to yesterday, the bulls are stronger now
Long liquidation pressure below: about 1.5 billion USD → about 2 billion USD
Short liquidation pressure above: about 2.5 billion USD → about 1.2 billion USD
2. Key price levels to watch
81,500: first dense zone below, breaking this triggers the first wave of strong liquidations
80,000: next zone below, the buffer starts to thin here
83,000: first cluster of short positions above
83,800: breaking this level squeezes shorts the hardest
3. Scenario analysis
Downside: break below 81,500 → dense long zone around 80,000 → buffer is thin here, prone to cascading liquidations
Upside: break above 83,000 to start squeezing shorts → 83,800 → 84,500
4. My judgment
Looking at today's data, the bulls are stronger, and most bad news has been digested, so I tend to expect a rise.
Don't ask why, just know that I'm still holding my long positions!
#US CPI and PPI both beat expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? PONS is still up 8%, but the trading volume in this morning's first hour is more than 80% lower than last night's peak.
As of 9:11 AM Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.34, with 24-hour trading volume around $8.38 million. Last night at 11 PM, the full hour trading volume was about $1.115 million, and at 8 AM this morning about $191,000; the price also dropped from the 24-hour high of 0.355 back to around 0.34.
My judgment is that the trading volume has not yet caught up with the surge from last night. Looking only at the 24-hour price increase can easily mistake past volume for current momentum. There are about $50,000 sell orders at 1% above the current price, so be mindful of slippage when chasing the price.
I am more focused on the volume in the upcoming full hours. If volume surges again and the price holds above 0.355, the current cautious assessment should be revised; if volume remains low, the price increase alone does not provide much confirmation.
$PONS $BTC 昨天思考了一下，就哪怕有巨大的利空，BTC还能稳住8w。前面空头已经有过几次都没突破，那基本这个地方就是一个底部区间。美联储我其实偏向今年只加息一次，中期选举之后大概会有一波重新上涨。短期来看，今天上午还有沃什讲话，就算偏利空，也做多打到8w附近 如果有利好或者偏中性搁那打太极，回调就是机会。如果不给上车机会只能做做追涨#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The denser the data, the easier it is to misread the direction
Tonight at 20:30, five US data points will be released within the same minute.
The market is not focused on good or bad, but on the magnitude.
The original rule states:
Initial claims over 200,000 count as weak, retail below 0.3% counts as cooling off.
At the moment of the trigger:
When all five numbers come out together, their directions often conflict.
$BTC moves first, $ETH follows with a shake.
Common misreading:
Previous value dropped from 1.1% to 0.3%, which looks like a decline.
But the drop is not enough, so it still counts as bad news.
On the market side, $BTC is stuck between 80,000 and 88,000.
88,000 is the two-year entry cost; once it goes up there, sellers appear.
Below 80,000, there is an ETF cost line around 81,500.
If it breaks, the most recent layer of support disappears.
Holding heavy positions before the data release is equivalent to leaving the direction to luck.
#BTC spot ETF net outflow again, can institutional buying warm up?
#$BTC $ETH Market Core Summary
Today's market is highly abnormal and disconnected: AI/tech plunged sharply in early trading, then rebounded due to Jensen Huang's remarks, but overall remains weak; US Treasury yields ignored hot PPI/CPI and strong retail sales, with clear stock market divergence; oil price surge was overlooked; gold and Bitcoin became the only clear safe havens.
Stock Market: Overnight KOSPI fell sharply, US tech futures led the decline. Jensen Huang's comments boosted NeoCloud stock and bonds, driving a rebound. The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 rose over 1% for the day (rotation among value and rate-sensitive sectors), Nasdaq was the biggest loser (from down 1.7% to near flat), S&P slightly up. Healthcare led gains, tech and energy weakened, long-term institutions sold heavily net, hedge funds deleveraged. S&P supported by 50-day moving average.
Energy: WTI broke above $98, driven by hurricane production cuts, large inventory drops, and geopolitical conflicts. Brent was relatively moderate; Brent has become a "pure sentiment contract," with severe divergence between paper and physical markets.
Others: Dollar declined then stabilized; gold broke above $4100; Bitcoin found support and rebounded near $80,000. Consumer staples forward valuations are now more expensive than tech stocks; defensive rotation may be overcorrecting.
Core Logic: Goldman Sachs pointed out that the previous "long AI/short US bonds" positions are closing at both ends, credit concerns are seeping into AI capital expenditures, market interprets this as an economic growth shock. Tech and AI credit remain troubled; gains mainly come from defensive rotation. S&P forward P/E ratio fell back to about 21x, possibly providing a buffer for earnings season, but "AI savior" remarks failed to reverse the overall situation.In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a series of intense macro shocks, causing its price to fluctuate significantly. On October 14, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September CPI data, which broadly exceeded expectations. What alarmed the market even more was the spread of inflation: besides gasoline prices rising 9.1% month-over-month, housing costs also increased 0.4% month-over-month, marking the fastest growth in five months, while prices for entertainment, used cars, education, airfares, healthcare, and clothing all rose. This data points to a less optimistic signal that energy prices are transmitting through transportation costs to other sectors, and core inflation is stickier than the market anticipated. Before the data release, the market priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike in October. After the data release, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate hike surged to near 50%, then fell back to 43.7%. As of yesterday, this probability further dropped to 27.7%. The expected volatility reflects internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed President considers another rate hike this year appropriate, while the San Francisco Fed President indicated the Fed might need further hikes but suggested no need to act in October. After the macro data release, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $81,000 intraday on October 14, approaching the lower bound of its recent trading range, and last night briefly fell below the $80,000 mark. $BTC From on-chain data, this correction has not yet evolved into full panic; Glassnode's latest report shows that realized losses among long-term holders are lower than the peak on August 12.#US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be Another Rate Hike This Year?
$BTC $ZEC $1. CPI rebounds, PPI surges month-on-month, upstream costs will continue to pass through, and there is still upside risk for CPI in the future.
2. Retail sales exceed expectations, US consumer resilience is strong, the economy is not cooling down, providing realistic conditions for the Fed to continue tightening.
3. Market consensus: no rate cuts expected this year, rate cut expectations are pushed directly to 2027, now the debate is whether to raise rates once more.
Two scenarios for the benchmark interest rate
🔴Scenario 1: Hold steady in October, raise rates by 25bp in December (main baseline scenario)
- Current status: just completed a round of rate hikes in September, two consecutive meetings with direct hikes, there are internal disagreements within the Fed; long-term bond yields have already risen spontaneously, indirectly helping the Fed tighten financial conditions, leaving room to pause in October.
- October meeting: maintain the current benchmark rate unchanged, but the meeting statement and officials’ remarks are overall hawkish, keeping the option for future hikes.
- December: if subsequent employment and inflation do not show significant decline, implement another 25bp hike, raising the rate range.
🟡Scenario 2: Directly raise rates by 25bp in October (low probability)
CPI + PPI consecutively surge, inflation stickiness is fully confirmed, the Fed chooses to continue tightening.
Market interest rate futures have already raised the probability of a rate hike in October, but mainstream institutions judge the probability of immediate action in October is not the highest.
Brothers, which scenario do you favor? Let’s discuss in the comments.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Yesterday, I sold a lot of ETH long-dated put options! I think the bull market will continue; this is just a correction for now! #US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? "PPI Night, Market Awaits the 'Second Shoe to Drop'"
CPI exceeding expectations was like a cold splash of water, delaying rate cut expectations and cooling risk assets collectively. If tonight's PPI again exceeds expectations, the market will press the "second verification button." (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC: After CPI, it dipped then rebounded, entering a short-term weak balance. 81500 is the intraday support, 83800 is the rebound resistance. Without buying support, the rebound is hard to sustain; if broken, downside space opens. (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$ETH: Weakening following BTC, still with considerable volatility. Watch if 2450 can hold, 2580 is resistance. Without capital inflow, weak oscillation continues. (╥﹏╥)
$SOL: Pulling back from highs, sentiment cooling. Around 102 is the watershed, 125 is resistance above. Holding this level allows recovery; breaking it prolongs adjustment. (｡･ω･｡)
TSMC's revenue hits a new high, but profit and guidance are the next potential risks. Before PPI is released, volatility is unlikely to decrease. Don't guess direction, watch support and capital flow. Personal review only, not investment advice. (￣▽￣)~*
#US CPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high
#Trading Voice: Your experience deserves to be heard #Meta's Massive AI Investment Enters the Payoff Test Period $META committed to a hundred-billion-level infrastructure investment even before the success or failure of its AI products was clear. This big gamble has now reached the "acceptance moment." Zuckerberg himself admitted that the model hasn't been fully validated yet, but he bet as much as $200 billion, with the CFO repeatedly warning that failure would have serious consequences. The money on the books is rapidly depleting: the 2026 capital expenditure guidance is $130 billion to $145 billion, and last quarter's free cash flow fell to a recent low, all spent on fixed assets that won't yield short-term returns. Although giants like Google and Amazon are also investing heavily in building data centers, Meta's aggressiveness remains the most prominent in the industry.
The market was originally focused on the Q3 earnings report released on October 21 to see if revenue could maintain this pace, but the community is already voicing doubts about it being a "forced march"—while Meta Muse's download volume is high, its 7-day retention rate dropped to 22.5%, below ChatGPT's level for the same period. The monetization path is also unclear: advertising remains the old mainstay, but whether Muse's subscription fees can carry the heavy burden of AI returns needs to be answered next quarter.CPI和PPI双杀，PPI同比飙到6.3%，直接给市带来了惨烈的爆仓与资金分化
24小时全网爆仓9.73亿美元，92%是多单！4天时间，超18亿杠杆被彻底洗掉。
资金避险情绪浓厚，黄金冲上4181，10年期美债收益率回到5.05%。ETF单日净流出2.61亿，恐惧贪婪指数从62跌到53。
还好砸下去后全部收回来了，$BTC 今早回到82000，$ETH 2450。
第一次80400，后面两次81000，这次直接插破8万又快速拉回。说明整数位下方有真金白银的大单承接！四次探底不破，追空的资金第四次被埋。多头韧性，值得高看一眼。
接下来信息量极大的两件事是：美联储主席Warsh静默期前最后一次讲话和Deribit期权交割。我们要密切关注。
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ 10.16 Sister San shares:
$ETH short-term alert not lifted, don’t just look at the positives. After the ETF was approved, buying momentum didn’t continue, with a net withdrawal of 783 million in ten days; in October, another 182,000 tokens flowed into exchanges. The unlocked token group exceeded 1 million, hitting a ten-month high, and the 2617 long-short line has been lost. It has dropped 39% in the past year, underperforming $BTC, and its on-chain scale is also smaller than TRON.
More attention is needed on old addresses awakening: nine-year-old chips recharged 6,369 tokens to Kraken, about 15.95 million USD; dormant wallets transferred 48,000 tokens to Bitfinex. Selling pressure is not just talk.
But the mid-term logic remains intact: compliant institutions are still accumulating, Bitmine is only 77,000 tokens short of the 5% target. The macro volatility caused by CPI exceeding expectations looks more like a shakeout. Don’t be panic-sold off, keep an eye on token flow.
$SOL
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#Tesla’s delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
#Voice of Trading: Your experience deserves to be heard Many traders watching the market often mistakenly treat support and resistance as precise price lines. When the price hits a certain high or low point, they immediately conclude that a breakout has occurred. However, in reality, support and resistance are more like price zones rather than exact points where a rebound or drop is guaranteed upon contact. A brief touch of the boundary of a range is not enough to confirm a valid breakout; the price level reached and whether it can hold afterward are two separate matters that need to be considered independently. Here, it is important to clarify the meaning of the market data itself. The rolling 24-hour indicators provided by exchanges are dynamic results calculated over a sliding time window, not fixed full-day closing statistics. As time progresses, earlier market segments are removed from the statistical window, causing the high and low points and the price change percentages to change accordingly. This means that the 24-hour volatility data seen at the moment only represents the market activity within this sliding time slice and cannot be directly equated to the full performance of a single complete trading day. Let's first look at the currently confirmed market information: OKEx spot BTC/USDT latest transaction price is 82335.1 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 0.83%. The past 24-hour market volatility has been significant, with a highest price of 82642.8 USDT and a lowest price of 79775.1 USDT. The most recent closed 1-hour K-line closing price is 82232.4 USDT, and the rolling 24-hour trading volume is 694588219.931776019 USDT. The current price# US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be Another Rate Hike This Year?
[Fed Hawkish Statements + Waller's Speech Window] (Core Negative Theme), [Geopolitical Easing Expectations] (Hedging Positive Theme)
1. Breaking Down the News Item by Item
1. Harker's Hawkish Speech (Today's Biggest Negative)
Cleveland Fed's Harker turns hawkish again: If inflation expectations become entrenched, more aggressive rate hikes are needed, advocating for early rate hikes to suppress inflation.
The market will reprice for higher rates to last longer, possibly another rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields likely to rise, and risk-free assets under pressure.
👉 This is the core negative factor suppressing the crypto market.
2. Two Geopolitical Statements from Trump (Sentiment Hedging Positive)
• Russia-Ukraine: Believes there will eventually be reconciliation, possibly bypassing Zelensky;
• Iran: Will not send ground troops, no nuclear weapons use, only possibly using non-nuclear “Mother of All Bombs” to strike targets.
Core meaning: The market's fear of large-scale full-scale war and nuclear conflict risk decreases, lowering the black swan probability of energy price surges.
Geopolitical risk premium falls, which is a hedging positive, but it is only verbal expectation without a concrete agreement, so the strength is weak and sustainability poor.
3. Central Bank Governors' Speeches, Waller's Key Appearance at 11:30
Fed Chair Waller's speech at 11:30 today is the decisive factor!
Harker is just a single hawkish voting member; Waller's stance represents the Fed's main tone:
• If Waller follows hawkishly and acknowledges inflation risks, combined with Harker's remarks, the negative impact will be amplified;
• If Waller leans dovish and remains cautious, Harker's comments will be seen as an extreme personal view, the negative will be digested, and the market will rebound.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC 昨晚市场迎来本月最重要宏观组合拳：美国9月 CPI、PPI,BTC零售销售三大数据全部大幅超预期。消费端通胀、生产端通胀、居民消费韧性 三线共振走强。高利率不是预期，是即将长期锁死。
- CPI同比 3.7%（预期3.6%）
- 核心CPI 2.6%（预期2.5%）
消费物价再度抬头，通胀回落节奏彻底被打断。
- PPI环比 1.3%（预期0.5%）
- PPI同比 6.3%（预期5.3%）
上游工厂成本暴涨 → 未来1–2个月 CPI继续承压
通胀不是缓解，是上下游同步二次升温。
- 零售环比0.8%（预期0.3%）
美国居民消费异常火爆，经济完全没有降温迹象。
- 10月加息概率从18%飙升至 34%
- 12月加息概率大幅抬升
机构主流判断
10月大概率按兵不动、偏鹰表态；12月确定性再加一次25BP。
现在市场最大风险不是“暴跌”，而是：长期流动性收紧、反弹即承压、行情很难走出趋势牛。
宏观大偏空 + 短期情绪修复 + 杠杆乱震
⚠️ 记住：震荡不是强势，只是暂时没有砸盘。
大趋势逆风没有任何改变。#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus My view on Netflix's Q3 earnings is that advertising growth and operating margin will be more important than total revenue growth. The key question is whether Netflix can expand its ad-supported business without sacrificing profitability while investing in content and advertising technology. #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 On the eve of Netflix's earnings report release
Massive layoffs have already begun
I am not optimistic about an earnings beat
Layoffs are to protect financial data
If there is an earnings beat
Layoffs would not be necessary
The financial data would also look good Last night’s show had a first half of ghost stories and a second half of plot twists.
PPI at 6.3%, the highest in four years, hit hard, causing Bitcoin to briefly drop below 80,000 to 79,725. Everyone thought 80,000 was gone, but what happened?
It bounced back late at night to 82,216. The Dow Jones also rose 1%, the bond market rebounded, and the 10-year yield dropped by 12 basis points.
Is the bad news all out? My answer is, half of it.
The half that’s out is on the price level. The 79,725 dip was sharp but quickly recovered, with buyers stepping in at 80,000. The bond market rebound and 12 basis points drop in yield is the first decent good news in two weeks.
The half that’s not out is the fundamentals. CPI at 3.7%, PPI at 6.3%, both are still explosive.
Officials are still hawkish; Daly said we can’t just wait and see anymore, and Harker said if inflation expectations become entrenched, rate hikes will exceed expectations. On the AI side, data center bonds are being collectively sold off, CoreWeave’s bonds dropped to 80 cents with a 15% yield.
So is this a rebound or a reversal? It’s a rebound with some truth. Holding 80,000 is real, but inflation hasn’t peaked either. By my measure, until Bitcoin holds above 83,000, it’s all rebound.
My approach remains unchanged: watch the show. Holding 80,000 is the bulls’ business, not mine.
What do you think, is 79,725 the bottom for this week or just halfway up the mountain?
#VolatilityRadar: Coin Movement Watch $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $SAMSUNG 三星这一波也是够狠的，从210一路跌到152，昨日这根下影线，说明152附近有资金护了一下盘，个人感觉可以试多参与一哈了
短线阻力165附近，若能突破站稳往180-200附近走一波应该是问题不大的
KB证券都发话了，说这波暴跌是“过度调整”，看好后面走个“W型反弹”。今天日韩股市高开，三星盘初也反弹了2%左右
在宏观环境和行业竞争加剧的背景下，美股、韩股相关的代币化股票出现这种剧烈回调，也有基本面的逻辑支撑的，机构预测，2026年第二季度长江存储跃居全球NAND出货量，三星三季度营业利润同比暴增782.5%，直接创了历史新高。而且技术上挺争气，在SEDEX 2026上掏出了HBM4E、LPDDR-PIM这些前沿家伙什。最离谱的是估值，12个月前瞻P/E只有3.3倍，比2010年以来的最低点还低
基本面这么好，为啥还跌？因为资金在用脚投票。长鑫存储发布了4F²新架构，年底要推DDR5，机构预测2026年二季度长江存储要在NAND出货量上跃居前列。这直接把外资吓跑了，外资正在持续“抛售韩国”，单是10月16日一天就净卖出约2130亿韩元。马斯克也来凑热闹，说中国2028年要大规划生产内存。供给过剩的担忧，像把刀一样悬在头顶#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix can sustain revenue growth, but the primary driver is shifting from raw subscriber volume to monetization—specifically periodic price increases, expanded Average Revenue per Member and international market growth as paid-sharing tailwinds normalize.
The ad-supported tier represents a major long-term growth engine, driven by the rollout of Netflix's proprietary ad-tech stack, expanded programmatic capabilities, and increasing ad-tier..The halving story of FIL seems like no one wants to listen anymore. When the overall market sneezes, do small altcoins really have to catch a cold? I've been staring at FIL's candlestick chart for a long time, and the feeling is not disappointment, but exhaustion. The halving narrative in the previous cycle was enough to excite the community for weeks, but now it feels like shouting in a noisy room with no one turning back. The market hasn't ignored it because it didn't hear it; it's a selective disregard.
Let's first restore the facts. FIL's own narrative is weak, making it difficult to have an independent rally. Even with a halving-level positive event, as long as BTC weakens, the price still can't hold up. This is not a dilemma unique to FIL; it's the common situation for altcoin sectors. BTC is the weather vane; when it is strong, risk appetite returns, and FIL has room to follow the rise. When it is weak, FIL's decline is often greater than BTC's, showing high volatility and poor resistance to drops. This asymmetry is the real killer.
So what is the market trading now? Not the halving expectation, but risk budgeting. Everyone hesitates whether to keep positions in altcoins; FOMO sentiment is weak, and narrative fatigue is heavy. When BTC shakes slightly, altcoins are the first to be reduced. High-volatility assets like FIL are often the first to be liquidated to raise liquidity when risk appetite contracts.
The bullish path is also clear. If BTC stabilizes and breaks upward, risk appetite warms up, and the halving narrative may be repriced, amplifying FIL's volatility and gains. But this path depends on the overall market giving a signal first; FIL itself cannot decide this.
Where is the risk? If BTC continues to oscillate downward, the halving benefit will be completely ignored, and FIL may fall#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight, possibly exceeding expectations#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix can sustain revenue growth, but the primary driver is shifting from raw subscriber volume to monetization—specifically periodic price increases, expanded Average Revenue per Member and international market growth as paid-sharing tailwinds normalize.#Tokenized US Treasuries Used for Large-Scale Triparty Repo for the First Time
The headline says "used for large-scale triparty repo for the first time," and at first, I also thought it meant the kind of US Treasuries freely transferable on a public chain.
I checked The Block's paraphrase of BNY's statement: Citadel Securities bought 2-year US Treasuries on Tradeweb, BNY recorded a tokenized representation on its private ledger, settled within minutes, then used it as collateral for overnight triparty repo, exchanging it for cash from BNY. Standard US Treasury settlement is usually T+1, but here it's compressed to minutes.
The efficiency bottleneck lies in the custodian ledger representation and collateral turnover, not in opening another on-chain yield pool. Retail accounts can't access this triparty setup either.
If BNY announces next week that this bond can be freely transferred on a public chain, I'll admit I was wrong.【Robinhood想把AMC搬上链，老板说：这股票你说了不算】
AMC CEO又跟Robinhood杠上了。表面看是两家公司吵架，实际争的是一块新生意：美股代币化以后，发行权到底在上市公司手里，还是平台也能自己做产品。
Robinhood的股票代币 $HOOD 由泽西岛子公司发行，官方明确说每枚都有对应股票作支撑，但持有人并不拥有AMC的股东权利。有股票价格敞口，不等于真的持有股票。这就是双方吵不完的地方。
SEC 9月17日推出的临时豁免规则，要求相关交易场所在第三方代币化股票上市前通知发行公司，并给对方提出异议的机会。AMC想争的，就是这道门槛。
这事儿对加密市场的意义，比AMC涨跌大得多。股票上链确实是趋势，但谁发行、谁托管、持有人有什么权利，没搞清楚就只是把传统金融包装成了链上产品。后面如果Robinhood被迫调整规则，合规代币化证券平台才可能真正受益；如果现有模式继续跑通，发行公司的话语权就没那么大了。别急着炒概念，先看规则最后站在哪边。🚨🚨🚨最近三次的美国中期选举结束后，比特币价格走势
2014年，选后71天见底，跌幅-46.7%。
2018年，选后39天见底，跌幅-50.6%。
2022年，选后1天见底，跌幅-14.9%。
每一次中期选举后，比特币价格都创了新低，砸出黄金坑。
2026年会是什么情况？
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 特斯拉的汽车和储能业务，盈利能力都出现了下滑。用车辆收入和交付量粗略计算，第二季度特斯拉单车收入约为4.27万美元，比上季度少了约2600美元。加之造车成本的整体上行，特斯拉汽车业务毛利率出现回落，从第一季度的19.2%降至第二季度的16.3%。#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 【Crypto Circle Script】
#Anthropic reports Q3 revenue rising to $16.8 billion and turning profitable
People used to say AI was a money-burning machine
The stronger the model, the more money it burns
Now finally someone is starting to make money
But the capital market is not that excited
Used to double in one quarter
Now growth is 45%
Wall Street is actually starting to complain it's slow
Just telling stories is no longer enough
This is actually the same logic as in the crypto circle
Bull markets trade on imagination
When the market cools down, you have to look at real skills
Bitcoin at least still has a scarcity narrative
AI companies are really competing with real technology
Today you are the industry leader
Tomorrow, when someone updates their model
Your moat might be breached
Technological revolution does not mean stock prices will always rise
A good company doesn’t mean every price is worth buying
Brothers, do you think AI is a bubble now
Or is the next wealth revolution just beginning?
$BTC $ETH 🚨 ETH$ETH Alert sounded! Harker makes a strong statement: If inflation doesn't cool down, the Federal Reserve may be forced to hike rates more aggressively!
What ETH really needs to watch out for might not be a single rate hike, but the possibility of the Fed re-entering a tightening cycle! $BTC $ETH
Just now, Cleveland Fed President Harker sent another hawkish signal. She clearly warned that if U.S. businesses and households gradually develop an "inflation mindset," believing that high inflation will persist long-term, the Fed may have to take more aggressive monetary policy actions than currently expected in the future.
The most worrisome part of her statement lies in her policy approach: rather than waiting for inflation expectations to spiral out of control before hiking rates sharply, it's better to act early and push rates to a more restrictive level.
What does this mean?
1. What ETH fears most is the market repricing interest rates
For ETH, the Fed's hawkish signals are far from irrelevant macro noise.
If inflation remains high, the market may reassess the future rate cut space or even increase caution about further hikes. Once U.S. Treasury yields rise and the dollar strengthens, risk asset valuations could come under pressure. #USCPIandPPIexceedexpectations, can there be another hike this year? #Netflixgrowthmayslow, advertising business becomes a new focus #BTCspotETFnetoutflowagain, can institutional buying recover? #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
奈飞增长放缓已是既定现实，广告业务是长期增长亮点，但短期体量有限，很难单季度爆发。公司指引Q3 EPS仅0.82美元，EPS站上0.84美元需要多重利好共振，门槛很高，我认为本季度EPS大概率低于或等于0.84美元。【Anthropic is already making money, yet AI concept stocks are still collectively taking hits】
$ANTHROPIC reported $16.8 billion in revenue for Q3, a 46% quarter-over-quarter increase, and posted its first adjusted profit—an impressively strong performance. But on the same day, the Nasdaq $QQQ fell 1.88%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 4%, and CoreWeave plunged as much as 16% intraday. AI is clearly becoming more profitable, yet the funds speculating on AI are pulling out, which is somewhat awkward.
The market’s concern is no longer whether there is demand for AI, but how much money this business needs to burn to keep growing. Anthropic’s revenue rose from $4.73 billion in Q1 to $16.8 billion in Q3, but its growth rate slowed from 143% in Q2 to 46%. Revenue is still increasing, but the growth slope has clearly shifted down.
Meanwhile, CoreWeave’s CDS soared above 1100 basis points, and bond yields are approaching 16%. Anthropic has over $518 billion in compute infrastructure commitments over the next decade. AI companies are making money, but the companies buying equipment and building data centers for them are burdened with high-interest debt—this is the core of the funding panic.
This round feels more like the AI industry chain is squeezing valuations and checking cash flow, not that AI demand has suddenly disappeared. If subsequent revenue continues to grow and financing costs fall, the heavily sold compute stocks may recover first; but as long as high interest rates and debt pressures persist, just telling growth stories based on revenue is no longer enough.ETH stuck at 2450. Who is actually naked among the 187 million long positions and 6.78 million buy orders from the whales?
Checked the market this morning, Bitcoin is grinding around 2440.
Last night it dipped to 2317, clearing a bunch of long positions, liquidations nearly 900 million.
But this morning it bounced back to 2450, shorts got liquidated for 87.43 million.
Longs and shorts both hit hard, washing back and forth.
Two signals worth watching:
First, an ancient whale dormant for 9 years transferred 6369 ETH into Kraken, cost basis $14, unrealized profit nearly 16 million.
Old coins are moving, the market is a bit nervous.
Second, Coinbase spot ETH has a 6.78 million buy order at $2328, about 4.55% below current price.
Nearby buy orders total 19.49 million, sell orders only 10.91 million, net buy orders exceed sell by 8.57 million.
Big money is supporting below.
More excitingly, a whale opened 187 million worth of BTC and ETH long positions with max leverage 4 hours ago.
ETH longs are 15,270 coins, entry price 2455, liquidation price only 2406.
Meaning at 2450, bulls are holding hard; 40 points below is the line between life and death.
Now it’s grinding back and forth between 2400 and 2500.
I have no positions, watching empty-handed.
Chasing longs risks getting trapped, chasing shorts risks being stopped out, better to wait for it to choose a direction itself.
Are you currently empty-handed waiting, or have you already jumped in?👇
$ETH $BTC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #BitMine increased holdings to 5.815 million ETH, staking rate about 87% U.S. stocks (especially companies in mature industries) often pay dividends. The core reasons can be attributed to the combined effects of four major factors: shareholder culture, tax system, company lifecycle, and market structure. 1. Shareholder Culture: Dividends are the "hard truth" The U.S. stock market is dominated by institutional investors (pension funds, mutual funds, insurance funds) who seek long-term stable returns, and dividends are an important source of income. - Many fund contracts require investment in companies with stable dividends; - If management does not pay dividends and cannot provide evidence of high growth, they are easily pressured by shareholders or even face "voting with their feet"; - Dividends are seen as a sign of responsibility to shareholders and good corporate governance. 2. Tax System: Dividends are "not a loss" U.S. tax law has historically encouraged dividends: - 1913–1953: Personal dividend tax rates were lower than ordinary income tax rates, encouraging companies to pay dividends; - The 2003 Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act: Dividend tax rates were reduced to a maximum of 15% (partially extended later), greatly increasing the after-tax attractiveness of dividends; - In contrast, stock buybacks historically did not have significant tax advantages (only becoming more popular in recent years). The result is: dividends have a controllable tax burden for shareholders, and companies are willing to pay them. 3. Company Lifecycle: Mature companies "have too much money" Many companies in the U.S. stock market are leaders in mature industries (consumer, financial, pharmaceutical, utilities, etc.): - Their growth slows down, so they do not need to reinvest all profits; - They have too much cash on hand, so it is better to distribute it to shareholders to avoid management making poor investments ("self-Falling for three days, but the rate still clings above zero: Bulls are stubborn, but their hands are soft
Conclusion first for tonight: The way it has fallen these three days is not panic, but a dull knife cutting flesh.
BTC 80,548, down 2.38% in 24h, lowest hit 80,228, just a breath away from 80,000. ETH 2,354, down 4.6%, 2400 lost. SOL 101.93, even 100 is hanging by a thread.
But the rate surprised me: BTC 0.0038%, ETH 0.0044%, all just above zero, stubbornly not turning negative. Three days of continuous decline, yet bulls still pay interest on time.
In plain terms, it's stubbornness: whether admitting mistakes or not, positions are held firmly; but 0.0038% is less than half of the normal 0.01%, so no one dares to add positions. OI of 30,800 BTC hasn't moved, no liquidations, no bottom fishing, the whole market is waiting for a reason.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
I'm NO on $NFLX earnings at 28c
- EPS cut from $0.84 to $0.82 last 90 days
- Only 2 beats in last 4Q, missed Q3'25 by $1.09
- Revenue growth slowest in 11Q (+11.9%)
- Stock -41% 1Y, Wells Fargo downgrade to $57
72% Yes is overpriced. Fading.
Risk 28c to win 72c.