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#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike this year? #ETF and whale funds diverge, can BTC hold $80,000?
🤔 Honestly, I am more cautious about Bitcoin's short-term trend than a few days ago.
Here appears a warning divergence signal:
US 10-year Treasury yield falls, dollar weakens, gold strengthens.
Normally, this should be favorable conditions for BTC.
But the market once dipped near $80,000.
Add one key data point: On October 14, US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $261 million.
This leads to a hypothesis: the current market may not be trading "future liquidity easing" but rather "risk-off panic."
There are two scenarios for falling Treasury yields:
✅Scenario one: betting on rate cuts, funds want to flow into risk assets.
Scenario two: out of fear, everyone rushes to buy Treasuries for safety.
If it is the latter, the yield drop may not be able to support Bitcoin's price $SOL $BTC $ETH US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%; core CPI also exceeded expectations. After the data release, market bets on further Fed rate hikes surged significantly, with high-valuation tech stocks taking the brunt. AI debt and financing risks exposed (structural pain points)
AI cloud service provider CoreWeave's bond yields soared to nearly 15%, and its stock price plummeted over 15% in a single day. Elon Musk's public response "yikes" further amplified market panic. The market began to question the sustainability of massive debt-driven expansion in AI infrastructure, with related stocks like Oracle and Dell also sharply falling. High valuations combined with profit-taking
The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio was previously at a relatively high level above 29 times, significantly higher than the median of the past decade. The tech sector accumulated strong profit-taking demand after continuous gains, and rising international oil prices further intensified market concerns about tightening liquidity, creating a "double whammy" pressure.
The essence of this round of decline is a pricing restructuring as the market shifts from an "AI narrative-driven" to an "AI profit validation" focus—macro rate hike pressures and micro financing risks resonate, forcing capital to reassess the high valuation foundations of tech stocks.Midday Notes: Warsh finished speaking at 11:30, not a single word given, 82,000 still in place
The article this morning said the real test was at 11:30. After the test, a blank paper was handed in: Warsh did not make any predictions throughout the IMF annual meeting, repeatedly saying only "no pre-judgment of meeting decisions," revealing no hint about whether there will be a rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting; he only reiterated that there was already one hike in September and that price stability must be delivered. After today's speech, the Fed enters a quiet period, and no one will speak before the meeting.
The market's response was honest—no direction. At 11 o'clock, the hourly candle first dipped to 81,688, then pulled back to close at 82,126; now BTC is at 82,034 (12:44, my checked price), after a morning and midday session, still grinding within the 81,688–82,634 range, with volume shrinking. ETH is at 2,439, bottoming at 2,424, and 2,400 was never touched.
My view as an old retail trader: no news is the news today. The market waited in vain but also eliminated the biggest uncertainty—no data or speeches in the next ten days or so, so the market can only choose sides based on its own volume. If the range doesn't break, I won't take sides; if it really breaks, the closing price decides, and either side is fine.
Just one question: before today's close, will 82,634 break first, or 81,688?# US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be another rate hike this year?
The rebound is not a new bull market, just technical recovery after deleveraging.
BTC: Spot 24h still has a net outflow of 133 million, 1h still outflows 13.7 million, indicating buyers at low levels but no chasing at high levels; contracts 1h+4h combined outflow of 317 million, leverage is also withdrawing. There is support at 80,000, 83,000–84,000 is previous highs plus a dense chip trading area, failure to hold means oscillation between 79,000–83,000.
ETH: Don’t be fooled by the contract 24h net inflow of 375 million — 1h/4h contracts have already turned to outflow, spot 24h still outflows 57.05 million. This money mainly comes from short covering and long covering, not from allocation buying. ETH/BTC has no bottom, moving averages are down, the rebound is more of a pullback than a reversal.
So don’t get ahead of yourself now. There are only two confirmation signals: BTC/ETH 1h spot net flow turns positive, and BTC recovers above 83,000. The invalidation signals are simple: BTC falls below 80,000, ETH spot outflow expands.
On the macro side, PPI exceeds expectations, US bond yields cap, rate cut pricing is delayed, the ceiling for risk assets is just that high.
In short: funds are not in place, don’t position in place; wait for a pullback to buy, it’s more dignified than chasing highs. Data is scorching hot, trust is cooling down (｡•́︿•̀｡)
September PPI hit a new high since the end of 2022, with the core also exceeding expectations, and energy prices rising over 10% in a single month. CPI just heated up, now PPI strikes again. The data is so hot, yet officials are still playing Tai Chi, and the market suspects: what’s being priced isn’t inflation, but the Federal Reserve’s credibility. (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻
$BTC first broke 80,000, bottomed at 79,800, then sharply pulled back above 82,000. The deep V shape doesn’t look like retail investor moves. ETF net outflow was 3,209 BTC in one day, 5,250 BTC over seven days; institutions retreat, on-chain whales take over. Chips are moving from fast money to slow money. (•̀ᴗ•́)و
$ETH is weaker. ETF outflow was 38,915 ETH the same day; institutions are withdrawing, starting with it. Leverage is already low; if key support holds, short covering might give a short rebound; but ETFs are still bleeding, don’t rush to call a rebound. (´･_･`)
Gold also fell; futures speculative longs are running, while gold ETFs and central banks are taking over. BTC relies on on-chain whales, gold relies on central banks and sovereign funds—patience is on a different scale. (￣▽￣)~*
PPI exploded, but the deep V indicates real buying at low levels. The three data points just landed; hold your spot in the spot market, don’t chase the first candlestick. (ง •_•)ง
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year?
#ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold $80,000?
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus # Latest Updates
- PPI year-on-year 6.3%, core 5.0%, retail 0.8%, all exceeding expectations; excluding oil price, inflation is neutral, control group sales below expectations and previous values revised down, triggering short covering.
- US military reportedly formulating plans to strike Iran, Houthi forces attacked Saudi Aramco headquarters; IEA announces accelerated release of remaining 100 million barrels of oil reserves, Brent crude remains at $105.69.
- Anthropic lowers IPO valuation to 1.5 trillion (originally 2 trillion); OpenAI raises 1.4 trillion; FTC issues subpoena investigating consumer harm.
- BTC fluctuates at 82,200, ETH at 2441; BTC ETF outflows 261 million, ETH ETF outflows 130 million, USDC and USDT both decline.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain conclusion unchanged: risk-off capital drives yield decline, not fundamental deterioration.
- September PPI and total retail volume exceed expectations but inflation is neutral excluding oil prices, control group sales below expectations and previous values revised down, disproving economic overheating. Yield decline driven by AI volatility risk demand and short covering. Focus on Friday's Wash speech for rate guidance.
- AI shifts to ROI validation, Anthropic valuation lowered to 1.5 trillion; KOSPI down 7.57%, tech IPO delays cause disruption. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit a record high. This is why storage prices have fallen; the money has all been earned by TSMC $BTC The Fed Chair's recent speech was neutral to dovish. The Fed officials will enter a 10-day blackout period (during which they cannot express opinions). The probability of a rate hike in October is expected to continue to drop from 22%, so the market should see a rebound before the policy meeting at the end of the month. Standard Chartered has opened $BTC and $ETH trading for UAE clients
Standard Chartered Bank allows wealthy clients in the UAE to directly buy and sell $BTC and $ETH.
Custody and settlement are handled internally within the bank, with the license issued by VARA.
What others see: The bank has finally entered the market.
What I see: The money never actually leaves the bank.
Where does this money come from:
The clients' money was already in Standard Chartered's accounts; now there's just an added button to buy crypto.
No need to transfer to an exchange, no need to manage private keys themselves.
How is this calculated:
Custody is internal to the bank, meaning the coins are recorded under the bank's name, and clients hold shares.
Ownership and custody rights are separated.
The bank acts as a channel, not an exchange.
The channel charges fees but does not bear price volatility.
What really changes is the entry point, not the funds.
Next to watch is whether the bank is willing to open this system to ordinary clients.
#StandardCharteredOpensBTCandETHTrading, BankCryptoBusinessExpansion
#$BTC $ETH 十月中旬，当多数人还在争论$BTC能否站稳8万时，两位被链上追踪标记的大户已经用真金白银投了票——而且方向完全一致：做空。🤯 先说“暴姐”。她的操作记录显示三笔空单埋伏在低位：$ETH 2530.2开空、10倍杠杆、5万美元仓位；$BTC 83976.3开空、3倍杠杆、5万美元；$NEAR 5.229开空、仅1倍杠杆、2万美元。三笔全是卖出开空，总规模约12万美元。注意杠杆结构——$ETH最激进，$NEAR最保守，这不是随手试探，而是一套有层次的方向性押注：核心仓位表达观点，小仓位测试altcoin弹性。 再看“十爷”。11月18日他先买后卖，在$BTC和$XRP上空单实现78万美元双倍利润，全程10倍杠杆。快、准、狠。两人若放在同一时间轴上看，暴姐是左侧先知——十月中旬就坚定看空主流币；十爷是右侧猎手——等波动确认后重拳出击。暴姐仓位轻，属于“方向对了安全赚钱”；十爷仓位重，属于“确认后收割”。 这里有个容易被忽略的信号：暴姐的$BTC空单杠杆只有3倍，而$ETH给了10倍。如果她单纯看空大盘，没必要在$ETH上压最大杠杆。这说明她的核心判断不是“加密整体崩”，而是“$ETH相对$
This chart is an on-chain analysis graph of the Long-Term Holder MVRV Ratio Momentum for Bitcoin (BTC).
Below is an explanation of this indicator, its usage, and a market analysis combined with the current date (October 16, 2026):
1. Explanation of the Indicator Principle
This chart is provided by the on-chain analysis platform Checkonchain, mainly used to track the profit and loss status and trend momentum of Bitcoin's "smart money" (long-term holders).
Long-Term Holders (LTH) (retail counterparties): usually refers to the group of addresses holding coins for more than 155 days without moving them. Their behavior represents the most steadfast capital in the market.
Black line (Price): Bitcoin's market price (logarithmic scale).
Blue line (LTH-MVRV Ratio): Long-Term Holder MVRV ratio.
Calculated as "current market price" divided by "Long-Term Holders' realized price (average on-chain cost basis)". 1.0 is the break-even line.
Orange line (LTH-MVRV 365DMA): 365-day simple moving average of LTH-MVRV, used to smooth short-term fluctuations and determine macro trends.
Green/Pink area (Momentum): Momentum indicator. When the blue line is above the orange line, it shows positive momentum (green), representing strong upward momentum (bull market); when the blue line falls below the orange line, it shows negative momentum (pink)...#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix has previously guided for a massive $12.86B in revenue (up ~12% year-over-year) and a staggering 33.2% operating margin, crushing last year’s 28.2%.
But the real Qs for investors are :
1️⃣ Can the ads tier pick up the slack? Password-sharing crackdowns gave Netflix a huge subscriber boost, but that wave is naturally cooling off. The spotlight is now entirely on how fast they can scale and monetize their ad-supported tier 33%+ profitability?? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Netflix (NFLX): slowdown and layoffs are real, but the 10/20 earnings report is the unveiling moment.
Fell from a high of 125 to 70. Revenue growth slowed from 17.6% to 13.4%, viewing time only increased by 2%, lost the bid for Warner Bros, laid off about 6% or 1,000 employees.
But not so pessimistic:
1. Profit margin is rising: Q3 expected operating margin 33.2% (28.2% last year), crushing peers (Disney only 7%).
2. Advertising accelerates: 2026 ad revenue target $3 billion doubled, advertisers 4000+ (+70%), ad slots account for over 60% of new registrations.
3. Valuation already pessimistic: just over 70, PE 22x, Jefferies buy target 85 (+20%), FCF $12.5 billion, buyback restarted.
How to read the 20th: Q3 guidance 12.86 billion, +11.7%, below market's 13%; the key is Q4 guidance— to maintain full year 51-51.4 billion requires Q4 growth of +11~14%. Stable Q4 = all bad news priced in; soft talk = break 70 to find 65.
72 close to 52-week low, small stop loss to bet on big rebound. I'm bullish, light position, stop loss 69.5, target 82-85. (Personal opinion, not investment advice) #Circle earnings report is coming, can stablecoin growth deliver profits? Circle (CRCL) will release its Q3 earnings on November 4. USDC growth, reserve yield, and distribution costs are key points to watch. Last quarter, USDC circulation increased by 19%, but revenue fell short of expectations. This time, the market wants to know: can stablecoin scale growth truly convert into profit? Conclusion first: $BAT rose 30% in five days, +13.26% today. The narrative of this established advertising coin has been rediscovered by the market—but without protocol upgrades, new partnerships, or TVL jumps, it's purely a capital-driven "old coin revival."
Clean data: Closing prices 10-11 at 0.150 → 10-12 at 0.177 → 10-13 at 0.175 → 10-14 at 0.194 → today at 0.195, a stepwise rise. Trading volume $72M. Funding rate -0.0048%, premium -0.09%, not contract forced liquidation, but real spot buying.
Three lines resonate: ① Breadth 223 up / 42 down, median +2.98%, BTC holding above 82k, profit-taking effect spreading; ② Brave AI assistant Leo’s user base continues climbing, BAT tagged with new "AI+browser" label; ③ After ZRO/INJ/PYTH rose, capital looks for "AI concept coins that haven’t risen yet" to take over.
But stay calm: Brave’s BAT buyback has stopped in 2024, no real burn within the protocol. If the 13% rise includes contract positions, a pullback to 0.18 is highly probable. Whether the old coin revival script (2021 ICP, 2023 ARB) can be replicated depends on whether capital continues to push up or starts selling in the next 72 hours.
What do you think? Is BAT a "true narrative comeback" or just a "pure capital-driven catch-up"? $BATBrothers, SNDK is in trouble again, this time Wall Street is collectively shouting buy while it's falling
$SNDK $1,343
SNDK closed down 6.48% at 1,394.83 on Thursday, continued to fall to around 1,370 after hours, and 1,343 is basically the after-hours low area. From the high of 1,909 on September 22, the pullback has approached 30%.
The negative factors are still the same few things. The progress of DRAM technology by China Changxin Storage has made the market worry about the erosion of pricing power in the memory sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weakened for two consecutive days, with SanDisk, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all falling.
But Wall Street is shouting buy at this position. Among 25 analysts, 15 gave buy ratings, with an average target price of $2,173, implying about 56% upside. Bernstein maintains a $3,000 target price. Some analysts specifically point out that SNDK focuses on NAND rather than DRAM, so Changxin's progress will not automatically translate into an equivalent competitive threat. The $93.9 billion contract backlog is the real trump card.
Technically, the RSI has fallen to 33.94, entering the oversold area. 1,343 is the after-hours low and also a short-term key observation point. The Q1 earnings report on October 29 is the next verification node.
Discuss in the comments, Wall Street shouting buy versus sector panic, which do you believe?👇
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC 8万美元这个位置，多空双方已经杀红了眼。盘面出现极其罕见的资金撕裂，到底谁能耗过谁？
先来看看资金面的两个极端：
ETF正在往外跑，单日净流出约2.58亿美元，机构短期避险情绪极浓。
但巨鲸却在接货，8月下旬至今累计增持约6万枚BTC，买入区间基本都在8万到8.6万之间。
更麻烦的是宏观面。CPI和PPI接连超预期，加息担忧重燃，美元和美债收益率往上顶，风险资产集体承压。
目前盘面的情况是BTC在8.2万附近晃悠。上方8.35万-8.45万是铁打的阻力带，没量极难过去；下方8万-8.1万是短期关键支撑，再往下就是7.8万了。
我的判断很简单：8万能不能守住，不看K线，看资金！ 若ETF流出放缓，巨鲸继续买，8万大概率撑住，行情在8万-8.4万反复磨。若ETF继续大额流出，巨鲸也停手，8万一旦破位，止损盘和杠杆清算叠加，将直接下探7.8万甚至7.5万！
8万关口能不能守得住呢？你怎么看？
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Lately, I've increasingly felt that the phase where Bitcoin most easily causes people to lose money is not during a crash, but during the first rebound after a decline.
During a crash, everyone knows there is risk.
But once the rebound comes, sentiment changes.
Short sellers start taking profits.
Long buyers start bottom-fishing.
Those who missed out begin chasing the rally.
Those originally planning to exit start fantasizing about a new round of gains.
The problem is, these buy orders don't necessarily represent long-term capital re-entering the market.
Short covering can push prices up, but it doesn't necessarily sustain the trend.
So moving forward, what I focus on most is not how much Bitcoin can rebound.
But three signals:
Whether ETFs can continuously restore net inflows.
Whether spot trading volume keeps pace during the rebound.
After the price re-establishes itself at key levels, whether it can withstand the next pullback.
If these three conditions don't improve, I won't change my judgment just because of a big bullish candle.
But if the market starts showing signs of not falling on bad news, pullbacks being bought, and sustained capital inflows, I will also promptly revise my views.
I don't want to be someone who is always bullish.
Nor do I want to be someone who is always bearish. $PENDLE The Federal Reserve Chair's recent speech was neutral to dovish. The Fed officials will enter a 10-day blackout period (during which they cannot express opinions). The probability of a rate hike in October is expected to continue dropping from 22%, so the market should see a rebound before the policy meeting at the end of the month. $82,284 (-0.18%)
BTC remains stable above 82,000, but just experienced a sharp washout last night. The intraday low touched $79,694, a nearly three-week low, then quickly recovered.
What happened?
US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, raising concerns about interest rate hikes. AI and semiconductor stocks plunged, dragging down risk assets. Within 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $929 million, with longs accounting for $777 million, and over 180,000 people were forced out.
Key signals:
· The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 53 to 63 (Greed), showing a quick sentiment recovery
· BTC market dominance remains high at 59.8%, with funds still favoring Bitcoin
· On-chain monitoring shows a whale sold a total of 1,601 BTC over 5 days, rotating into ETH
Short-term focus:
Analyst Ted Pillows believes **$81,000 is a critical support**; breaking below may lead to consolidation. If it can break through the $82,800–$83,700 resistance zone, further upward momentum is possible.
This rebound looks more like a technical recovery after deleveraging. Although volume has increased, whether spot buying continues is the key. At first, I thought ETH had risen about 3% that day, and the long-short ratio would push higher. Just checked OKEx, it was still around 2.4 yesterday at noon, but now it has dropped to 1.9.
The top 5% column is even more off; calculating by position size, the long-short ratio is still at 0.91. People here are slightly more long, but the money is a bit more short.
So in this rebound, the side accumulating more people is actually letting go, and the big holders' positions haven't flipped to long. If the top 5% position ratio goes above 1 in the next couple of days, I'll admit I was wrong.
When you usually look at ETH, do you trust the number of people ratio more, or the position size ratio? $ETH Midday Market Quick Review
$BTC:
BTC midday at 82056, after dipping to 79775 yesterday, entered a consolidation and recovery phase. Resistance above at 84216, support below at 80110, RSI back near 48, bearish momentum weakening with insufficient volume, short-term weak consolidation.
$ETH:
ETH midday at 2441, weaker performance than BTC, resistance above at 2566 and 2642, support below at 2375, RSI recovered to around 52, moving average pressure still present.
Capital Flow:
Fear & Greed Index at 64, still in the greed zone; 24h liquidations at $340 million, down 64% from yesterday’s peak, longs and shorts roughly balanced; retail long-short ratio about 1.5, bulls still dominant.
Top two Hyperliquid addresses combined have nearly $500 million BTC+ETH short positions open, whales hedging at high levels.
On the spot side, BTC and ETH have net outflows over the past 8 hours, but SOL and TRX continue net inflows, capital rotating within the market, not exiting.
Liquidation pain points: BTC longs at 81666, shorts at 83311, short-term range likely grinding within this zone.
Interpretation:
Short-term sentiment is recovering from yesterday’s panic, but volume is lacking, so the rebound won’t be strong, mainly consolidation. From a cycle perspective, this is a normal bull market consolidation—whale short positions are hedges, not bearish bets; spot capital is just rotating sectors, the macro structure remains intact. Medium to long-term holders remain steady; consolidation and bottoming is a window for phased accumulation.
Just a personal view, trading is ultimately self-reliant
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Will Tesla's earnings report this quarter exceed expectations?
The delivery numbers are already out, and exceeding expectations is a fact, but this part of the positive news has basically been priced in early. The real bottleneck is the profit margin, not the sales volume.
The current consensus EPS is about $0.43, and it has been adjusted downward recently. Energy storage deployment also did not meet expectations. In Q2, there was a situation where revenue exceeded expectations but EPS missed significantly, causing the stock price to plummet. That lesson is still fresh.
I feel that this time it will most likely be close to consensus or slightly below expectations. It's hard to truly "exceed expectations" in a meaningful way. The market's 68% prediction seems a bit high. I lean towards No.
Robotaxi is indeed expanding rapidly, but that's a narrative and conference call topic for later, with limited help to this quarter's numbers.
This does not constitute any advice.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus A token dropping from $10 to $2 only indicates an 80% price drop; it does not alone prove that it is cheap.
"Whales are accumulating" or "the next bull market will return to historical highs" are just market narratives without support from capital flow and on-chain data.
A sharp drop could also mean the market is reassessing the project's value. To judge if it is undervalued, one must look at fundamentals and real demand, not just how expensive it used to be.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Focus Shifting to Monetization? 📊
Netflix will report its Q3 financial results on October 20 after the US market closes, guiding for revenue of ~$12.86B (up ~12% YoY).
However, the main story is the strategy shift: revenue growth is transitioning from pure subscriber volume to monetization—specifically periodic price hikes, ad-supported tiers, and expanded Average Revenue per User (ARPU).
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Who are the main ones transferring BTC to exchanges during this recent downturn?
On-chain data shows: short-term holders transfer in about 2200 coins per hour on average within 4 hours, while long-term holders only about 480 coins, roughly one-fifth of the former.📉
❓ How to interpret these numbers?
1️⃣ Short-term holders: the transfer-in volume is the 4th highest since the start of this August rally, but the peak is already lower than October 8.
2️⃣ Long-term holders: on October 8, it surged to about 3700 coins per hour, this time back to around 480 coins, a drop of about 87%.
3️⃣ Transferring into exchanges ≠ necessarily selling, but it is the most direct signal of potential selling pressure.
📌 In this downturn, the main ones sending coins to exchanges are recent buyers; those holding longer are generally stable, and the short-term selling pressure is weaker than on October 8.
Two reminders for friends with light positions:
· Short-term holders' transfers in are still at high levels since August, short-term volatility may not be over, leave some room for leverage and position.
· Watching changes in this flow is clearer to see who is selling than watching a single candlestick.
Are you holding without moving this round, or have you also transferred coins to exchanges?👇
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, please be cautious of risks.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #OnChainData #LongTermHoldersRenting GPUs to the AI company CoreWeave, the people who lent it money are scrambling to buy insurance these past two days, fearing it won't be able to repay. The first to feel the pain in this AI wave is actually the sublessor.KOSPI's early rebound shows that dip demand can return quickly after a circuit-breaker session. Yet foreign investors were still net sellers early Oct 16, so the move has not resolved whether external capital is prepared to support the chip rebound. Official monitoring may steady nerves, but flow persistence remains unproven.
#KOSPIReboundFlowWatch On October 16, today in the small coins I am paying attention to ALEO, STRK, and INJ.
ALEO is currently priced at about $0.0454, up approximately 56.7% in the past 7 days and about 200.7% in the past 30 days. Ledger now supports USDCx on Aleo, and the Arc mainnet has also launched. Progress has been made on implementation, but this increase is significant, so we need to watch for dilution pressure from token issuance going forward. Support is first seen at 0.0374–0.0384, with resistance at 0.048–0.050; wait for a pullback to find an opportunity.
STRK is currently priced at about $0.0841, up approximately 55.8% in the past 7 days and about 224.8% in the past 30 days. Starknet is discussing whether to research an independent L1 with quantum security; it is still in the voting and research phase and does not mean a migration decision has been made. The recent increase is large, and unlocked supply should also be monitored. Support is at 0.0717–0.0768; wait for a pullback to hold.
INJ is currently priced at about $9.18, up approximately 26.1% in the past 24 hours, 26.1% in the past 7 days, and 56.1% in the past 30 days. Institutional infrastructure has progressed, and there was a volume surge and strengthening on the 4-hour chart, but the short-term rise is sharp. Do not chase here; wait for a pullback around 8.55–8.85 to hold, then see if there is an opportunity.#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? 特斯拉昨晚终于把新一代Roadster拿出来了。2017年就开始收5万美元订金，一拖拖了快九年。
现场确实唬人：车冲上弯道倒挂着贴住，再飞出去空翻、悬停、落地，零到六十英里加速不到一秒，用的是SpaceX的推进器和风扇。可该给的信息一个没给，售价没公布，量产要等2028年。这车本来就是小批量的高端玩具，CNBC也直说了，对公司财务基本没影响。奥特曼去年还在X上晒过自己的退订截图，等了七年半，不等了。
决定股价的是下周三盘后的三季报。三季度交付48.65万辆，比市场预期的46万多辆好，但同比还是少了2%左右，储能装机13.7GWh。大家要听的是利润率、Robotaxi和机器人进度，飞车再酷也换不来估值。
芯片那头，周四英伟达盘中跌了2%多，到216美元附近，AMD跌6%上下，美光早盘跌5%，收盘反倒翻红，涨了1.87%。黄仁勋一句CoreWeave“融资成本其实在下降”，新云厂商的跌幅收回来不少。
利率压着，科技股现在就是消息驱动，一条新闻上下好几个点。特斯拉财报出来之前，多观察盘面，先按兵不动$TSLA $FIL Solstice (Network Version 29) is scheduled to activate on October 19, 2026, mainly to do two things:
1. Decommission the Fil+ system
Previously, verified data (Fil+) could obtain higher quality-adjusted power. After the upgrade, new sectors will be calculated at the highest quality power regardless of content, and verification registration and DataCap-related functions will be frozen.
2. Change in block reward distribution
Previously, 100% of block rewards went to miners. After the upgrade, it will be split:
A portion continues to go to consensus miners
A portion goes to Service Orchestrators (the service providers responsible for bringing paid demand)
And some may be burned
The consensus share will gradually decrease, and the service side's share will gradually increase according to actual paid demand targets.
Importance assessment
Token economics: Changes how rewards are distributed, attempting to shift incentives from "storage accumulation" to "bringing real paid usage"
For miners: New sectors no longer differ based on whether data is "verified," and they must share part of the rewards with Orchestrators
For network direction: Clearly moving towards a service economy and paid demand. Short-term price impact is moderate. It is a structural change, not a direct supply reduction, so market reactions are usually less immediate than at the end of a vesting period
Technical risk: This is a mandatory upgrade; nodes and storage providers must upgrade
Summary
Solstice is not a minor patch but an important adjustment to the Filecoin reward mechanism, aiming to make the network focus more on real paid demand rather than simply expanding capacity. It is meaningful for the long-term direction but usually does not have as direct a short-term price catalyst effect as events like "significant supply reduction." Fell below 80,000 then pulled back to 82,000, $929 million wiped out; Pirate Chain suddenly created 39.8 million coins out of thin air, what's going on with privacy coins?
Last night’s market slapped both bulls and bears.
$BTC once dropped to 79,694 during the session, breaking below 80,000 for the first time since mid-September, but then stubbornly pulled back near 82,300, up slightly 0.8% in 24 hours. $ETH returned to 2,453, up 1%. However, $929 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at $777 million, accounting for over 80%.
There’s something today exactly like the last Zano incident.
Privacy coin project Pirate Chain suffered a vulnerability attack, with 39.8 million ARRR coins generated out of thin air. The network is still running, but the official team has warned: do not transfer any funds until recovery is complete. The Zano rollback incident from a month ago is still fresh, and now Pirate Chain repeats the same. In the privacy coin sector, code risk is truly much greater than price risk.
Someone is frantically selling BTC to buy ETH. A giant whale/institution address sold a total of 1,601 BTC over 5 days, converting to 132 million USDC, then bought 53,095 ETH at an average price of 2,497. This is not a small move, but a directional portfolio adjustment.
ETFs saw a net outflow of 262 million yesterday, with this week’s capital flow turning to net outflow. The 80,000 level is being tugged back and forth, and leverage has already been cleared once. Were you liquidated today? Let’s discuss in the comments 👇 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix’s Q3 is a test of monetisation, not just audience growth: the key question is whether advertising can generate more revenue from existing viewers while protecting profitability. Management’s guidance of $12.86 billion in revenue and a 33.2% operating margin provides a clear benchmark. My view is cautiously positive, but the quality of any earnings beat matters—stronger ad sales and resilient engagement would be more convincing than cost reductions alone.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 🚨🚨🚨最近三次的美国中期选举结束后，比特币价格走势
2014年，选后71天见底，跌幅-46.7%。
2018年，选后39天见底，跌幅-50.6%。
2022年，选后1天见底，跌幅-14.9%。
每一次中期选举后，比特币价格都创了新低，砸出黄金坑。
2026年会是什么情况？
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC The moment the surgical light turned on, what I saw was not a market trend curve, but an aortic aneurysm that was passive and could rupture at any time.
This new MSCI regulation is essentially a preoperative assessment. Non-operating companies—those that have turned their balance sheets into Bitcoin vaults—are being put on the imaging examination table. November 11th is the final list; the procedure takes effect after the market close on November 30th. The time window in between is exactly a period of myocardial stunning, with extremely unstable hemodynamics.
Let's first talk about the pathological mechanism. Targets like Strategy and Metaplanet essentially transform the company's left ventricle into a leveraged crypto pump. Their stock prices are not supported by core business cash flow but rely on Bitcoin as a heterologous vascular bridge. The problem is that MSCI's index inclusion criteria assess "operating" status—that is, whether the myocardium itself has autonomous contraction ability, not supported by an external circulatory machine. Once judged as non-operating, passive funds must reduce holdings according to rules. This is not an emotional sell-off but a mechanical, body surface area-based, non-negotiable blood loss.
I want to emphasize one point: currently, no company has been officially removed. This is a critical preoperative diagnostic divergence. Some in the market are pricing as if "diagnosed," which is overdiagnosis and a typical iatrogenic panic. The real risk window is November 11th; all declines before that are merely symptoms, not the lesion itself.
Next, consider the linkage with tokenized US stock targets like XIWM. What are they like? Like a myocardial biopsy after transplantation—indicators appear normal on the surface, but ischemia-reperfusion injury may suddenly manifest within hours. Tokenized US stocks play a very special role during crypto market trading hours: they serve as 24-hour continuous ECG monitoring, while the underlying asset pricing power remains in New York's catheterization lab. Two circulatory systems coexist, amplifying blood pressure fluctuations.
Hemodynamic deduction: if MSCI ultimately excludes, passive fund outflows are quantitative and measurable, similar to a planned atrial septal repair surgery; if retained, the currently mistakenly punished portion will instantly restore perfusion like myocardium after coronary spasm relief. The real risk is not in the outcome but in the rebalancing window before the market close on November 30th—that is a critical point of extracorporeal circulation transition, where any sudden blood pressure drop may trigger a chain reaction of hypotension.
As for those companies propping up their balance sheets with coin prices, I must say something calmly: their balance sheet structure is very much like dilated cardiomyopathy—the ventricles get larger, the walls thinner, but stroke volume declines. When coin prices rise, this is called leveraged thickening; when prices plateau, this is the compensation period; when prices fall, this is decompensation.
The final list has not been released; everything is still preoperative discussion. #mscibtctreasuryrulesInflation has surged again, how much longer does the crypto market have to endure?
September's CPI and PPI exceeded expectations for two consecutive days. Honestly, the moment I saw the data, my heart skipped a beat.
PPI year-on-year soared to 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Gasoline prices rose 20.3% in one month, diesel up 21%, with the energy shock spreading along the supply chain into various sectors. Core PPI year-on-year also jumped from 4.7% to 5.0%.
This is not a price increase in a single category; it is systemic price pressure penetrating deeper.
Latest CME data: the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October is 71.8%, but by December, the probability of no change plummets to 7.2%, with a combined 92.8% chance of a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike. Research reports from CICC and CITIC Securities align — no change in October, but a high likelihood of a hike in December.
So don’t fantasize about "all bad news priced in." Until rate hike expectations fade, liquidity will remain a heavy iron plate pressing down on all risk assets.
$BTC — Stable on the surface, hollow underneath
Currently around 82,000, the price action looks okay, but Glassnode’s on-chain data is worrisome. After the 80,000 buy resistance was absorbed, new buying hasn’t effectively replenished support liquidity, which is actually thinning. New buy orders mainly cluster around 78,000, essentially passive defense rather than active offense.
The message is clear: the surface rebound is a technical correction, not a trend reversal. If 78,000 doesn’t hold, there’s a vacuum zone below, and the drop could be rapid.
$ETH — Even worse than BTC
Currently at 2,439, the hourly chart shows a deep V rebound from 2,313, but $280 million liquidations in 24 hours, mostly long positions, with the largest single liquidation at $11.84 million.
An interesting detail: Huang Licheng just added $250,000 margin to stubbornly hold a 25x long position, with a liquidation price at 2,333; meanwhile, a whale who opened a position at 4,101 cut losses and liquidated $13.45 million.
Veteran traders are accepting losses and exiting, while new big players are accumulating at the bottom. But overall, $ETH remains weaker than $BTC, with a weak rebound and a pattern of choppy bottoming.
$ZEC — Small coins are hard to profit from
Currently around 1,223, after dipping overnight to 1,179, it slightly recovered, then hit resistance at 1,244 and pulled back. The rebound mainly relies on short covering, not trend-driven buying. There’s heavy trapped positions around 1,250-1,260, creating strong resistance.
Small coins are more sensitive to news, amplifying volatility. If you get it right, you profit; if wrong, you get hit hard. Poor position management means getting hit from both sides.
Some heartfelt advice
At this stage, heavy positions are a gamble with your life. Until macro expectations clarify, all big rises and falls could be shakeouts.
Take light positions for short-term corrections, strictly use stop losses, and don’t rush to heavily invest to recover losses. Keep steady, surviving is more important than anything.
The market won’t stay like this forever, but the premise is you have to be in the game.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations #Fed restarts rate hikes, why does BTC still show resilience? #ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold $80,000? #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Washman's speech in Bangkok has ended. Here's a summary for everyone:
Core: Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that inflation is high but are not in a hurry to raise interest rates immediately. They want to continue observing more economic data and will not tighten policy right away. There is no commitment to rate cuts; the stance is dovish but not extremely accommodative.
👉 Market reaction: U.S. Treasury yields slightly retreated, the dollar weakened, and risk appetite increased. This is the main driver behind today's crypto market rebound.
Impact on BTC price movement:
1. Short term: Positive support for BTC. As long as U.S. Treasury yields do not rebound higher, BTC has a chance to maintain this oversold rebound; however, this is just a corrective rally, not a new major uptrend.
2. Key technical level: Holding the 81600 support preserves the rebound structure; if this level is broken, the rebound ends, and BTC will fall again, with altcoins diving in sync.
3. Risk: The speech left open the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation continues to rebound. If inflation data rises again, expectations will quickly turn hawkish, suppressing BTC.CPI flipped overnight, and the market literally flipped the table😱
Honestly, I didn’t expect this wave either.
I originally thought it would just be a data shake-up, a quick spike, and then after the necessary washout, the market would disperse. But the 3.7% CPI tore apart the previous cooling narrative, and the 1.3% month-on-month PPI set the strongest record in over four years. Both exceeded expectations simultaneously, giving the market no time to react.
$BTC spiked above 80,000 in one shot, with $485 million liquidated across the network in one hour, longs accounting for $464 million — $ETH alone bore $200 million [reference:2]. What does this mean? Huang Licheng rolled from 56,000 to 12.25 million in 4 months, but this spike knocked him back to 21,800, wasting over half a year and even losing money [reference:3]. $ETH fell below 2400; the next support level technically is the psychological 2000 mark.
Many were confident before that "after one drop, the bad news was priced in." But this inflation hammer clearly wasn’t priced in advance. The core conflict has changed — whether the Fed will move in October or hike in December, the market has started repricing. The CME’s probability of an October rate hike has more than doubled from a low point. The path is unclear, and that’s the most dangerous part.
Inflation not falling, US Treasury yields surging, the dollar strengthening, risk assets all getting hit, crypto can’t stay immune. $BTC probing 70,000 is not alarmist; $ETH at 2000 should be mentally prepared for repeated tests.
But one thing must be clear: this macro-driven crash causes spikes and chain liquidations to be especially frequent. Being right about the direction doesn’t mean you can endure the process; heavy positions held stubbornly often die before dawn. Light positions, stop losses, and keeping ammo ready are more important than anything 🙏.
Outside the market, it’s not peaceful either. TSMC’s Q3 net profit hit 763.1 billion NTD, a year-on-year surge of 68.7%, a historic high. The AI computing power line is fundamentally strong, but gross margin dropped 1.3 points quarter-on-quarter; early 2nm mass production still dragged it down. Netflix reports earnings on October 20, with market expectations of $12.878 billion revenue. The ad business is seen as the next growth engine, but whether the path from 3 billion to 7.5 billion can be realized depends on that report.
Tech stocks and crypto are now grasshoppers on the same rope. AI narratives support risk appetite, giving crypto some breathing room; if tech stocks collapse with macro, $BTC won’t escape either.
At this point, don’t chase shorts or rush to bottom-fish. 80,000 has been tested three times; breaking it means a real crash, not breaking it means a fake fall. Wait for stabilization signals — volume surge with bullish candles, clean chip exchange, and no further macro deterioration — then buy in batches, it’s not too late.
Don’t make decisions in panic.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit historic highs #Netflix growth may slow, ad business becomes new focus #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Distinguishing strength and weakness during pullbacks is more important than bottom fishing
Even though prices are falling, the quality is completely different.
Most people focus on the candlestick chart asking "Where is the bottom?" I care more about—who is holding firm, and who can no longer hold on.
$BTC: Fell about 3.5% in 24 hours, about 4% in the past week, but looking over a month, the decline is actually only about 2%. Compared to other coins, $BTC is still holding up, but calling it "turning strong"? Not quite. The 80,000 level needs no overthinking—round number levels never spontaneously develop support. During the CPI shock, the trading volume expanded 5 times within 30 minutes, and the support near 83,000 failed to hold, indicating huge disagreement between bulls and bears at this level. Next, it depends on whether 80,000 can hold and gradually recover. If it holds but only drags along without recovering, downward revision expectations must follow; if it can stabilize and climb higher, then that’s a turnaround. A smaller drop is not a reason to add positions, just an observation window.
$ETH: Under more pressure. Fell about 5.6% in 24 hours, once dropped over 6% cumulatively after CPI release, and the monthly chart is also weakening. Less gain before? Doesn’t mean safety; weakness can persist. Short-term, there is double support around 2,350 (horizontal line + ascending trendline), which has repeatedly held since August 23, showing real buying interest. But conversely, if this resonance support breaks, the downside space opens. Don’t get excited about rebounds yet; the key is whether it can continuously reclaim lost ground—if it bounces a little then retreats, it’s still weak. On Binance, $ETH liquidations exceeded $157 million in 24 hours, with longs getting wiped out badly.
$SOL: Fell about 4.4% in one day, nearly 7% in a week. It has dropped to the 100-101 range, with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages pressing above 103, showing a clearly weak short-term structure. Don’t assume the $100 round number will definitely hold the bottom. More noteworthy is that within 4 hours after the CPI release, $SOL open interest increased by 7.95% instead of decreasing—leverage is still increasing during the decline, and once this structure breaks, deleveraging stampedes will come fast. Wait for it to show its stance: whether it can hold and then attack upward, or pause and continue probing downward—these are two completely different scenarios.
The macro environment isn’t giving any good signals either.
CPI year-over-year at 3.7% exceeded expectations, PPI month-over-month surged to 1.3%, year-over-year to 6.3%, the largest increase since March 2022, driven mainly by energy prices, which are already transmitting to other goods and services. The probability of a rate hike before year-end approaches 90%. Meanwhile, $BTC spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of about $859 million over the past six trading days, indicating institutional buying is indeed shrinking short-term.
But here is a notable divergence signal—$BTC ETFs still have a net inflow of about $2.09 billion over the past 30 days, while $ETH has a net outflow of about $319 million, and $SOL about $33.2 million net outflow. Institutions are not fully retreating; money is concentrating into $BTC, while altcoins are being drained. Another abnormal on-chain phenomenon: ETFs are flowing out, but the total Bitcoin holdings of giant whales have risen to 3.03 million $BTC, the fastest monthly increase since February.
At this point, distinguishing strength and weakness is far more important than guessing the bottom.
Don’t rush to catch the weak, and don’t blindly chase the strong. Wait for the market to send its own signals.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#USCPIandPPIExceedExpectationsCanThereBeAnotherRateHikeThisYear #BTCSpotETFReturnsToInflowETHFundsContinueOutflow #TradingVoiceYourExperienceDeservesToBeHeard $SOL has been grinding around 105 these past few weeks. On the surface, we see ETFs pulling money out, but behind the scenes, a bigger event is lining up to launch.
On October 7, Samsung announced that Samsung Wallet will integrate USDC on Solana for cross-border remittances, opening in the US in the last week of October, initially covering 82 million Galaxy phones. The feature is built into the wallet, with currency exchange and transfers all embedded; the blockchain runs in the background, and users won’t even feel like they’re using a blockchain.
The significance lies in the entry point. Previously, stablecoins on-chain mostly circulated between exchanges and DeFi. This time, an ordinary phone user can just tap to send money, and the funds will make a round trip on Solana. According to the foundation, this year stablecoin transactions on this chain have already exceeded $5.25 trillion, with PayPal and Western Union also operating on it.
Meanwhile, the US SOL spot ETF has seen net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days from October 5 to 15, totaling about $37.8 million. Institutional money is retreating, but the user-side pipeline is being laid out.
The price currently only reflects the first half. Even if only a small portion of those 82 million phones actually use it, on-chain transfers and fees will move first, and the coin price usually follows with a lag.
After launch, watch if the daily transaction count of USDC on the Solana chain rises—that will be the first signal that this news has materialized.Samsung Electronics (005930.KRX) plummeted 9.48% on October 15, experiencing a sharp single-day pullback, with the Korean semiconductor sector weakening across the board.
This decline is not due to a company-specific crisis but rather macroeconomic sentiment shocks: US CPI exceeded expectations, the market repriced the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, and global funds withdrew from AI technology and semiconductor sectors, dragging down SK Hynix and Samsung simultaneously.
A simple breakdown of Samsung Electronics:
The business is divided into two main parts: consumer electronics (phones, foldable screens, TVs) + semiconductors (memory, foundry, HBM).
Memory chips are a typical cyclical industry, with stock prices fluctuating in line with chip price cycles; HBM is the future growth driver, serving AI computing power demands. The mining difficulty adjustment of $BTC Bitcoin is essentially an automatic calibration mechanism to stabilize the network. It triggers a recalculation every time 2016 blocks are mined, aiming to firmly fix the average block time across the entire network at 10 minutes.
In the previous market cycle, miners directly experienced the largest scale of capitulation since 2021. At the beginning of the year, the total network hash rate was still above 1000 EH/s, but by June it dropped directly to 918 EH/s, evaporating 12% in just one month. The difficulty has been adjusted downward three times consecutively, cumulatively falling more than 20% from the historical peak. At that time, everyone was waiting for the new adjustment on July 11; if it dropped again, it would be the first time since July 2022.
The fundamental reason is that mining companies cannot bear the costs. JPMorgan calculated that the average mining cost for listed mining companies reached $78,000 per coin, while Bitcoin was only fluctuating around $62,000 at that time. It was below the cost line for five consecutive months. The hash price directly fell to a historic low of $29/PH/s/day, equivalent to spending $100 on electricity to mine coins worth only $70. Twenty percent of miners shut down directly, and the rest relied on selling the coins they held to endure. Six leading listed mining companies sold 32,000 BTC in a single quarter to cover operating expenses.
This mechanism is like an automatic thermostat. When hash power floods in, it raises the difficulty to slow down block production; when hash power leaves, it lowers the difficulty to make it easier for the remaining miners to produce blocks. Even if half of the hash power suddenly withdraws, the network will not collapse and will always maintain a stable block production rhythm.BTC got hit by data again last night. PPI year-on-year was 6.3%, much higher than expected, and as soon as it came out, it plunged directly to 79,800, blowing up over 900 million dollars worth of positions, mostly longs. The price broke through 80,000 but not long after was pulled back above 82,000. The range from 80,000 to 81,500 is exactly the cost zone for US spot ETFs' holdings; this dip was caught, indicating someone is defending it. The price hasn't yet stabilized above 82,500; if it can't break through, it will remain range-bound.
More important than the price is the MSCI update last night. They set the rules for "non-operating companies": looking at operating assets plus five financial indicators, if four out of five fail, the company may be kicked out of the global index. Strategy is basically targeted by this, Metaplanet is also on the list, and coin-holding companies like SharpLink and Solana Company have been put on the watchlist. The list will be released on November 11, effective after market close on the 30th.
No need to panic yet. Mature component stocks need to fail two consecutive annual reports to be removed, so Strategy won't be kicked out next month. JPMorgan previously estimated passive sell-off around 2.8 billion dollars; Strategy itself said that funds tracking MSCI hold about 13 million shares total, accounting for 3.1% of total shares, less than one day’s trading volume.
The trouble is ahead. Strategy has been the most stable buyer of BTC in recent years by issuing shares and bonds to buy coins. Once its index status is in jeopardy, financing costs will rise, and whether this buying will slow down is what we need to watch next $BTC $xMSTR Bitcoin fell below 80,000, yet ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million
These days, I have become more cautious about Bitcoin in the short term because the market is showing a warning signal.
US Treasury yields have clearly fallen, the dollar weakened, and gold rose—according to old logic, all these should be bullish for Bitcoin, yet it still dropped near $80,000 at one point. More importantly, on October 14, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net outflow of $261 million.
So I began to suspect: the market may not be trading on liquidity easing, but on risk itself. There are two reasons for yield declines: one is anticipation of rate cuts and funds preparing to return to risk assets; the other is investors getting scared and buying Treasuries for safety. If it’s the latter, lower yields won’t save Bitcoin.
I will be watching three things next: whether it can hold above 83,000; whether ETFs can continuously return to net inflows; and when yields continue to fall, whether Bitcoin rebounds or weakens further. If the macro environment improves but there is no buying, I will remain cautious; but if the next round of negative news hits and Bitcoin doesn’t fall further and funds keep flowing back, I will revise my view.
The true bottom is not when everyone thinks it’s cheap, but when bad news can no longer scare away the last holders. My money can wait; the market has no obligation to rise according to my beliefs. $BTC