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The chips of Bitcoin have recently changed hands among a group of people. Short-term holders now hold 4.08 million coins, which is 422,000 more than the low point in July — the original holders are passing them out, and new short-term buyers are taking them in. The fact that someone is willing to take them means there is new money outside the market; the chips are being transferred, not everyone rushing to sell.
But the trouble lies with this batch of newcomers: their cost basis is relatively high, and they are anxious. Their average cost is like a single line; when the price is above this line, few want to sell; once it falls below the line, it’s very likely that a group will cut losses simultaneously.
Next, I’m watching three things: whether short-term holdings continue to rise, how close the current price is to the cost line, and whether the trading volume is slowly declining or there is a large sell-off. $BTC#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $STRK 这单50倍空单浮盈302.53%，开仓0.079，标记价0.07422，但高倍下最怕利润回撤，持仓感受就是“赚得多却睡不踏实”。
盘面异动发生在0.079一线，那里是前期筹码密集区上沿，价格冲高未稳留下上影，构成假突破。随后量价背离确认抛压，开空后走出0.079至0.07422的下降波段，高低点持续下移，空头动能主导。目前靠近0.074短线支撑，下影线频现说明承接渐强，追空性价比已不高。
上方0.076至0.079转为反压带，未放量收回前，反弹仍按弱势修复。若价格重新站稳0.079，偏空结构失效，必须离场。50倍杠杆浮盈只是数字，防守位下移至0.076，边缘等信号不追中间，落袋才真实。$BTC $ETH #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 SK Hynix fell more than 5% today, mainly due not to the company itself but to a systemic sell-off in the memory chip sector combined with a continuation of the downward trend.
This decline is part of a collective adjustment in Asia-Pacific memory stocks; no individual stock has released new independent negative news, and the movement is more driven by sector sentiment and competitive expectations.
1. Direct Causes
1. Sector resonance, memory stocks plunge across the board
On October 16, U.S. memory stocks broadly declined. SK Hynix (SKHY.US) dropped 5.02% to $138.77, while Micron Technology, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate all fell between 3% and 4%. Memory stocks moving up and down together indicates that sector funds are withdrawing overall rather than any single company having performance issues.
2. Micron's market cap surpasses, leadership ranking changes
During the session, Micron Technology's market cap officially surpassed SK Hynix, triggering a revaluation of the relative competitiveness among memory leaders and amplifying selling pressure on SK Hynix. The market is choosing based on relative strength among leaders, with SK Hynix currently in a passive position.
2. Deep Catalysts
1. ChangXin Memory's technological breakthrough fuels competition concerns
The core trigger for this adjustment is China's ChangXin Memory making progress in increasing memory density technology and considering launching server memory products before year-end. The market fears this will impact Korean manufacturers' market share, pricing power, and profit margins. This expectation began to ferment on October 13, "Black Tuesday," when SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both plunged over 8%.
2. Fragile AI sentiment, profit-taking by funds
Investors accelerated withdrawals from this year's strongest AI and memory stocks ahead of key earnings seasons and U.S. inflation data releases, essentially reflecting concerns about AI capital expenditure returns and financing sustainability. Stocks with large prior gains and concentrated holdings are prone to panic selling at the slightest disturbance.
3. Trend and Magnitude
Item
Value
Meaning
Today's change
-5.02%
Sharp single-day drop, underperforming the market
Last 5 days change
-17.90%
In a short-term steep decline channel
Last 20 days change
-25.99%
One month of trend weakening
Today's volume ratio
2.91
Significantly increased turnover, concentrated selling pressure
These data indicate SK Hynix has declined for nine consecutive trading days, with today continuing the weak trend rather than an isolated event; a volume ratio of 2.91 shows accelerated chip turnover. Previously on October 15, the Korean KOSPI index intraday drop widened to 9%, SK Hynix fell over 11% in a single day, and the Korean financial regulator convened an emergency meeting, showing this adjustment has panic characteristics at the regional market level.
4. Outlook
My judgment is that this is a sector valuation correction triggered by competitive expectations rather than a fundamental deterioration of SK Hynix.
Supporting this view is the synchronized decline across the sector, weak ADX momentum, and SK Hynix's continued dominance in the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) field, while ChangXin has yet to demonstrate large-scale mass production capability. A reassessment is needed if subsequent earnings confirm substantial loosening in memory prices or HBM orders, or if the competitive landscape truly shifts market share. Then, the nature of this decline would shift from "sentiment correction" to "fundamental repricing"—these two scenarios have completely different implications for future trends.
Risk warning: The memory sector itself is a strong cyclical category, recently experiencing volatile fluctuations and highly sensitive to AI narratives and competitive news. Short-term direction is uncertain; attention should be paid to earnings seasons and macroeconomic data disturbances.
The above content reflects personal views: please fully assess your own risk tolerance, make independent investment decisions, and bear investment risks independently. $$SKHYNIX 反弹成色分化：别把超跌修复当成强势反转
同样的反弹，含金量天差地别。BTC从79800拉回82000，24小时勉强翻红，看似抗跌，但ETF周四净流入仅506万，周三还流出2.6亿。机构资金缺席的反弹，本质是空头回补，撑不起反转叙事。
ETH从2325弹到2463，六个多点涨幅最猛，可它此前跌得也最狠——这是典型的超跌修复，而非趋势转强。当前价格正撞上2490至2500均线压制，弹得越急，越容易在阻力位前熄火。
SOL更值得警惕：24小时仅弹一个多点，在105附近晃悠，连100都不敢远离。前期跌幅不小，反弹却最乏力，这才是真弱。大盘一旦再度承压，它大概率率先破位。
宏观面同样不友好。CPI、PPI双超预期，加息概率飙至96%，ETF资金选择观望。流动性收紧预期下，反弹的持续性本就存疑。
区分反弹性质比追高更重要。弹得猛往往是因为跌得多，不代表资产本身强势。真正的修复需要资金持续流入和结构改善，而非情绪驱动的短线回补。等市场自己表态，比急着站队更稳妥。
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 💥Major macroeconomic bearish surprise! Can $BTC hold?
First, a quick lesson: PPI = producer-side inflation, factory purchasing and production costs; CPI = consumer-side prices, what the public pays. PPI often leads CPI; when costs rise for a long time, they eventually pass on to retail prices.
September PPI completely exploded:
· Month-over-month 1.3%, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%
· Core PPI month-over-month 0.7%, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%
It's not just oil prices acting alone; excluding food and energy, it still soared. Two consecutive months of increase, September hit a recent high, showing clear rebound in producer-side inflation pressure.
What's more troublesome is that the CPI already exceeded expectations the night before last, and now PPI is off the charts, indicating inflation is not a "temporary rebound" but heating up both upstream and downstream. Companies can't reduce costs, which may be passed on to consumers in the future, making CPI harder to cool down quickly.
So the market is speculating: the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts further, and even a rate hike cannot be ruled out. This is cold water for risk assets; $BTC is under short-term pressure, and "crash" sentiment is heating up. 📉 But don't just look at one candlestick; in a macro headwind, volatility is the main character. Buckle up! ⚠️ #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO to be revealed Cryptocurrency sentiment divergence—ETH has attracted public attention: for every bearish comment, there are 2.05 bullish comments (most people expect the price to continue rising).
In contrast, BTC and XRP are dominated by fear sentiment: the ratio of bullish to bearish comments is 0.82 and 0.92 respectively.
From a market perspective, the fear sentiment in BTC and XRP may become a positive signal when prices rebound, while ETH's excessive optimism increases the risk of a correction.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 资金费率悄悄转负：市场在“偷偷”做空？
一个值得注意的细节：Binance平台BTC资金费率已降至 -0.0073%，这是自今年6月以来首次转负。
发生了什么变化？
资金费率从正值转为负值，意味着做空的人比做多的人更急迫——空头需要向多头付费才能维持仓位。上次出现这个信号时，BTC价格还在62000美元附近。
为什么值得关注？
费率转负通常出现在市场情绪极度悲观或空头过度拥挤的时点。本周CPI和PPI数据均超预期，加息预期升温，衍生品市场的空头需求明显走强。
目前更支持哪种观察？
更偏向空头拥挤度上升的信号，而非趋势确认。链上数据显示巨鲸持仓仍在上升，与衍生品市场的偏空情绪形成背离。
接下来重点观察：资金费率能否快速回正。如果持续为负且价格不跌，空头挤压的燃料就在堆积；如果费率回正伴随价格反弹，说明这只是一次短期的情绪扰动。这个负费率会挂多久？$BTC $ETH I'm getting a bit paranoid, BTC is ridiculously strong, ETH has already broken the second daily support line, yet it's still at 80k and has a strong desire to go up. This has happened several times before: BTC drags ETH and altcoins down into a ditch, then stands back up on its own. Storage seems to have stopped falling in the short term as well. If the Nasdaq rebounds, the crypto market probably won't continue to fall. The daily divergence on BTC has basically been eliminated. If it hits a new high while diverging from the 3-day moving average, then falls again, that would still make sense. But going long at this position is really hard to pull the trigger on, unless it gives a price near 75k. $BTC $ETH The holdings of short-term Bitcoin holders have risen to 4.08 million coins, and many people immediately say this is new money entering the market. But breaking down the data, most of the increase happened in October: since the low point at the end of July, about 420,000 coins were added in total, with more than 150,000 of those in the first two weeks of October alone. The cost basis for this batch of new buyers mostly falls between 82,000 and 86,000.
What’s more noteworthy is that after old coins change hands, they are recalculated as new coins, so the increase in short-term holders is not entirely newcomers. Based on the average cost of this batch of chips, it’s around 74,900, with only about a 10% buffer of unrealized gains left.
So I first look at who holds the chips and where the cost basis lies, without guessing the price movement. $BTC"After liquidation, funds start to be selective: I only keep SUI"
Last night, 930 million in leverage was liquidated, and the market completed a risk repricing: pure sentiment coins were drained, and funds shrank towards blue chips and strong supports. NEAR, FIL, and SUI all showed long lower shadows, but I only put my chips on SUI.
$NEAR: The sharp rise relies on narrative and short covering. Monthly doubling and a surge in September, yet no sustained buying engine; Grayscale AI fund is a private placement share, making it difficult to form spot increment. Double-digit pullback overnight.
$FIL: Supply contraction is clear. Six years of unlocking ended, new supply dropped to 22 million tokens, PDP mainnet and Solstice upgrade are upcoming. But with a market cap of only 900 million and OI around 20 million, demand side evidence is still lacking.
$SUI: The $1 support has been repeatedly tested but not broken; last night 0.9966 was quickly bought back; the foundation invested 30 million in DATA Network, and ecological spending is real action. Not choosing NEAR or FIL is not denial, but the risk-reward ratio is not clear enough.
Looking at whether the oversold rebound can continue in the coming week. Genuine buying is the premise for going further.
This is only a personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after listing will be revealed "After being stopped out, I shorted $ETH again" 😤
Yesterday, my short at 2,410 was stopped out, losing 231U, face hurts. Today ETH bounced near 2,437 with low volume, not touching the previous high of 2,471. I judged it more like a downward continuation, so I shorted again.
My basis:
📉 Volume increased near 2,471 but couldn't break through, heavy selling pressure above;
⏱ 15-minute MACD has crossed down, 1-hour is about to turn down as well;
🕯 Rebound volume is insufficient, buying momentum is weak.
Stop loss at 2,471, target first at 2,380, then 2,320, will take profits in batches when reached.
But the risks are clear:
⚠️ 1-hour MACD is still a golden cross, red bars are still expanding;
⚠️ 20x leverage, a sharp pull-up would be very painful;
⚠️ This is a "revenge trade" after being stopped out, emotions are most likely to lose control.
So this time, control the hands first, then the position: stop loss at 2,471, accept if broken; targets are not greedy, take profits in batches. Being stopped out is not shameful, letting emotions control the account is shameful. 🧘♂️
After being stopped out, do you continue in the original direction or stop first? 💬 #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Korean stocks recover and rebound, can foreign capital selling pressure ease?# If the Korean stock rebound stabilizes foreign capital sentiment, ETH may have a short-term breather. But I judge the overall trend to still be bearish; treat the rebound as a correction and do not chase longs.
Current price 2427.02, down 0.6% in 24 hours, the high of 2492.97 failed to hold, the low of 2422.11 is close at hand. Both 1-hour and 4-hour trends are declining, down -4.46% and -11.57% from the highs respectively, bears dominate. Funding rate is only 0.0024%, open interest 582,000, sentiment cautious. Order book top 10 levels show 7030 buy orders and 156 sell orders, buy/sell ratio 44.99, strong buy-side support, short-term rebound demand exists.
Strategy: light short positions at rebound to 2458.6, stop loss at 2481.3, target 2385.7; if a sharp drop stabilizes near 2381.4, consider short-term longs, stop loss 2362.8, target 2444.5. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit at target price, do not hold losing positions.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$ETH #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
#Korean stocks recover and rebound, can foreign capital selling pressure ease?#
$ETH NU7升级的公告时机，精准得让人脊背发凉——$ZEC 刚从1697跌到1071，散户割肉盘刚清完，利好就来了。这不像巧合，更像一场精心编排的流动性收割。 先别急着欢呼。看链上：过去三天，超过1200万美元的$ZEC 从交易所被提走，流入几个创建不到几天的新钱包。这些地址没有历史、没有标签、没有任何质押动作。这不是囤币，这是在为某个动作预备筹码。 再看衍生品。全网$ZEC 合约持仓24小时暴增17%，未平仓量从4.2亿逼近5亿美元。但价格只从1071反弹到1225，涨了14%，持仓却膨胀这么多。多空双方都在疯狂加码，而空头根本没撤。如果这是一次干净的趋势反转，空头早该被扫出场了。可他们还坐在牌桌上。 有人在一千四百多位置布空，浮盈超过四倍，却不急着平。逻辑很直白：只要价格敢碰1300，就继续加空。每一次所谓的高位反弹，在他们眼里都是给空头发的入场券。 这里藏着一个被忽视的背离：链上提币通常被解读为看涨信号，但配合持仓量激增和价格反弹乏力，它更像是在为一场多空对决布置战场。提币的钱包没有质押，说明筹码处于待命状态，而非锁定。一旦这些筹码在关键价位砸向市场，追多的散户将首当其冲。 NU7主网Optimistic about crypto, buying $CRCL next
Among crypto, I choose $SOL
I won’t play with unlisted contracts anymore; once investor valuations update, they just drop. I try to avoid playing those.
As for $KORU, how to say, they say Koreans play with 10x leverage. I’ll still hold it; if anthropic comes back a bit, I’ll sell, if not, I’ll hold until listing.
Anthropic tries to list before openai to avoid splitting attention, but although it’s profitable now, it wants to expand scale. It needs more investment, and the IPO keeps getting delayed. Investors worry that increased investment won’t keep up with profits.
Openai is only valued at 1.2 trillion, which feels easy for the US stock market, but anthropic is valued at 2 trillion, making capital reconsider, even thinking it can’t make money and is only worth 150 billion. My advice is still to avoid unlisted ones.$TSLA Tesla Roadster ignites the entire internet, and the crypto community has ridden the wave to launch the meme coin FTR. Many people easily associate it with Tesla, but here the truth must be clarified.
FTR stands for Flying Tesla. Just by the name, it's easy to mistakenly think it is related to Tesla, but it has no cooperation or equity ties with Tesla Inc. It is merely a grassroots coin born from riding the hype. It has no real business operations; its only narrative is the hot topic of Tesla's Roadster, making it a typical event-driven speculation.
From the market chart, you can clearly see a long upper shadow candle, with the market cap surging to 5.86M before falling back, currently up 73.74%. This indicates short-term speculative capital aggressively pumping the price. At the peak of hype, early holders have already started taking profits and exiting.
The risk signals in the data are straightforward: bundled transactions account for as much as 45.49%, and a large amount of tokens are concentrated in the hands of the project team and whales. Under this structure, the pump is only to create a profit illusion to attract retail investors, while the whales can dump and crash the price at any time.
Everyone needs to distinguish two things: Tesla on the US stock market is a legitimate listed company with deliveries and FSD business supporting its fundamentals; whereas FTR is just an emotional product of the crypto community following the hype. The hype from Tesla's launch event is the entire value source of this coin.
Classic crypto rule: buy the rumor, sell the fact. The launch event hype has fully fermented, and the positive news has basically been priced in. This kind of meme coin has a very short life cycle; once the hype cools down, liquidity will quickly dry up. Without fundamental support, there is almost no support during declines, with pullbacks often exceeding 80%.
Do not blindly enter to speculate on FTR just because of Tesla Roadster's flashy demonstration. Event-driven markets come fast and go faster. Chasing at the top easily makes you the bag holder for whales unloading. Participating in such coins carries risks far outweighing the opportunities. #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises 特斯拉這次真的把跑車玩到飛起來了？🚀
Tesla 昨天在 SpaceX 德州場地展示新一代 Roadster，利用火箭推進器完成短暫離地、空中轉向等動作，確實有點誇張。
不過比起這台車有多猛，我反而更在意它能替 Tesla 帶來多少實際收益。
Roadster 預計 2028 年量產，短期對營收的貢獻恐怕有限。
真正的重頭戲應該是 10/21 的 Q3 財報。
Tesla 第三季交車 486,532 輛，儲能部署達 13.7 GWh，接下來要看的是毛利率、現金流，還有 Robotaxi、Optimus 的商業化進度。
我覺得 Tesla 現在最有意思的地方，就是市場早已不只拿它當車廠估值。
但技術展示是一回事，真正能不能賺錢又是另一回事。
你們覺得這次 Roadster 是技術突破，還是財報前的一波話題？🤔
$TSLA #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 $OKB $NFLX will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes on October 20. I tend to believe that both revenue and EPS will exceed expectations this time, especially optimistic about the profit side. Mainly, I also love watching Netflix shows hahaha. Currently, Wall Street expects Netflix's third-quarter revenue to be $12.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 11.8%, with EPS around $0.82. The company previously provided a revenue guidance of $12.86 billion, with an operating margin expected to reach 33.2%, higher than 28.2% in the same period last year. Analysts' earnings expectations are not aggressive at the moment, especially since some institutions have recently lowered their EPS forecasts. I am betting on an upside surprise, mainly based on three factors: advertising, subscription price increases, and content costs. Netflix expects advertising revenue to reach $3 billion by 2026, nearly double last year. This year, the US advertising pre-sale commitments have also nearly doubled. Although advertising pre-sales cannot be directly equated to actual revenue, it at least indicates that advertisers still have strong demand for Netflix placements. Advertising revenue currently does not account for a high proportion, so there is still room for growth in the coming years. Regarding subscriptions, Netflix has already raised prices in the US and several other markets, and the third quarter is expected to reflect a more complete effect of the price increase. For a platform like Netflix with a large paying user base, even if the number of users does not grow significantly, increasing the average revenue per paying user can directly improve revenue performance. What I pay more attention to is content costs. Netflix previously expected content amortization growth in the second half of the year[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The IEA says diesel will be tight until 2027, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying. What does this have to do with Bitcoin?
Pharaoh says the connection isn’t about diesel itself, but the word "inflation." Diesel is the lifeblood of industry; when diesel gets expensive, transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing costs all rise, ultimately turning into inflationary pressure.
First, let's look at what the IEA warned. The latest report from the International Energy Agency explicitly states that the global diesel market won’t rebalance until 2027. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to hit Russian refining capacity, combined with supply disruptions in the Middle East. Diesel crack spreads have surged to historic highs. Diesel isn’t gasoline—trucks, ships, and farm machinery all run on it. When its price spikes, inflation transmission is even stronger than gasoline.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? The transmission chain is straightforward: diesel price up → transportation costs up → end consumer prices up → inflation expectations harden → the Fed dares not ease → US Treasury yields stay high → risk assets under pressure. Bitcoin is currently stuck between 80,000 and 82,000, held down by this logic.
But Pharaoh must be fair. Diesel tightness isn’t a new story starting in 2026; the market has already priced it in. Bitcoin falling from 87,000 to around 80,000 has already digested a significant portion of inflation fears. What can truly change the direction are the Fed’s statements and the CPI, not diesel prices themselves. $ETH $BTC $SOL #IEA warns diesel tightness until 2027, Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies supply risks #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins $SPCX has dropped nearly 20% from its early October peak, yet its market cap is still significantly higher than when it went public six months ago—it's actually more expensive after the drop.
The company went public in June, priced at 1.77 trillion. Only three segments have business backing: Starlink at 240 billion, launch services at 140 billion, and defense at 120 billion, totaling just over 500 billion. The remaining 1.27 trillion corresponds to markets that don't yet exist today—Starship large-scale reuse, space computing power, Mars—over 70% of the valuation is buying options.
The current market cap is over 1.9 trillion, higher than on the IPO day. But these three cash-flow businesses haven't materially changed in recent months; the extra 100+ billion all falls under the options category. The stock price fell from over 170 to 145, yet the options portion became more expensive.
The reason lies in what it is sensitive to. The company is still losing money, with a negative P/E ratio, so profit fluctuations don't affect pricing; what drives the stock price are technical milestones—on the day Starship first reached orbit, it rose more than seven points. Analysts' average target price is 225, essentially pricing in "more milestone successes."
The variable is November: after the Q3 earnings report, there will be a large-scale unlocking of shares, increasing supply, but the current price doesn't seem to account for this.
#SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report since going public will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Bitcoin $BTC short-term holders' positions have increased to 4.08 million coins, up 422,000 coins from the July low.
New buyers are concentrated in the $82,000-$86,000 range, directly pushing the average cost of short-term holders up to $74,900. Although the current price (around $82,000) is still on the cost line, the profit buffer has narrowed from 16% to 10%, and the breakeven point is extremely sensitive. Considering the recent CPI and PPI exceeding expectations and the delay in rate cut expectations, under macroeconomic pressure, this "new capital" is both a support and a hidden risk.
The $80,000 mark remains the baseline for bulls and bears. While ETFs continue to see outflows, whales are quietly accumulating between $80,000 and $86,000, creating a stark divergence from retail ETF withdrawals. However, short-term holders' chips have increased (up 154,000 coins in the first two weeks of October). Once the price falls below $74,900, the group as a whole will enter unrealized losses, which can easily trigger a chain reaction of selling pressure; the $83,800-$83,000 range remains a strong resistance for reversal confirmation, and until it is firmly held, the market will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises Tesla's new generation Roadster officially debuted, driving pre-market stock price up. However, this flagship sports car is a long-term concept model, expected to enter mass production in 2028, with limited overall shipments, unable to contribute to revenue and profit in the short term, making it difficult to alleviate the current market's main concern over vehicle gross margin pressure.
The core value of this launch event lies in the technology narrative. Equipped with SpaceX cold air propulsion system, it demonstrates the synergy between aerospace and automotive technology, strengthening market confidence in Tesla's engineering innovation capabilities, providing an emotional boost ahead of the earnings report. But the price increase is more of a thematic pulse; the fundamental focus remains on vehicle deliveries and the commercialization progress of FSD.
Across markets, Tesla's strength will temporarily raise risk appetite for growth stocks in the Nasdaq, indirectly providing slight emotional support to BTC and ETH. However, the main driver for crypto remains U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations; this news is unlikely to push crypto into an independent trend and may see a pullback after the positive effect is realized.
Going forward, key points to track include Tesla's closing performance, Q3 earnings gross margin, Roadster mass production plans, and regulatory approval progress for road use in various countries. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises
Tesla released the new generation Roadster last night. The launch event was quite explosive, with a live demonstration of short-distance flight and aerial attitude adjustment using a compressed air thruster. Musk said this was developed in cooperation with SpaceX and will be produced in 2028. The stock price initially surged 4.62% after the news but has now fallen back to down 1.16%.
To be clear, this car was first shown in 2017, originally planned for production in 2020, but has been delayed repeatedly until now. Whether the market believes the 2028 timeline is another matter. The flight feature sounds cool, but flying cars on the road face unprepared regulations in all countries; regulatory hurdles are tougher than the technology.
The stock price spike and fall indicate the market is calculating. The Roadster is a plus, but Tesla’s real problem lies in fundamentals: Q3 deliveries dropped 2.1% year-over-year, automotive gross margins are under pressure, and Robotaxi commercialization is still climbing. Relying on a repeatedly delayed sports car can’t ease the anxiety over the core business.
For BTC, this is not direct. Tesla and SpaceX represent AI and high-end manufacturing directions. The more exciting the story, the greater the imagination space for tech stocks, and risk appetite can warm up accordingly. But Tesla’s rise doesn’t mean BTC will rise; their logics differ. BTC is currently fluctuating around 82,000, with resistance between 83,500 and 84,500, and support between 81,500 and 82,000. $TSLA $xTSLA $BTC Macro and News — Waller's Dovish Turn Reverses Rate Hike Expectations
This is today's most important variable and the only lifeline for bulls in the market.
At the IMF annual meeting, Waller clearly stated he "will not pre-judge the meeting outcome," did not signal a rate hike in October, nor did he reiterate the "inflation too high" stance. The market's probability of a rate hike in October plummeted from over 25% to below 15%. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.2%, and the South Korean Composite Index surged 3.6%.
A strategist from Commonwealth Bank of Australia bluntly said that Waller's failure to reaffirm the high inflation view "disappointed the market," which further pushed the dollar weaker.
But don't celebrate too soon — the real judgment day is the rate decision meeting on October 27-28. The market's probability of keeping rates unchanged is 72.3%, meaning there is still nearly a 30% chance of a surprise.
On the geopolitical front: Iran's military threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, escalating US-Iran tensions. Gold broke through $4,155/oz, and BTC, as "digital gold," is receiving marginal capital inflows. $BTC 巨鲸三周扫了 8.5 万枚
◆ 巨鲸 | 越跌越买
Santiment 数据：持有 10 到 10000 枚的钱包，三周增持超 8.5 万枚 BTC，这种速度过去一年只出现过两次；这类钱包数量 10 月 15 号创历史新高 20338 个。CryptoQuant：剔除交易所和矿池后的巨鲸持仓 303 万枚，去年 11 月以来最高，30 天增速是 2 月以来最快。过去几周 ETF 一路净流出，巨鲸却越跌越买。
◆ 长期持有者 | 不动如山
分析师 Murphy：这轮下跌里长期持有者转进交易所的量一直很低，平均每小时 480 枚，只有短期持有者的五分之一。卖的基本是短线的人，长拿的没动。
◆ ETH | 交易所余额 7 周少了 43 万枚
币安 ETH 余额从 8 月 25 号的 390 万枚降到 347 万枚，约 10.5 亿美元流出。现货 7 天平均成交量腰斩，眼下波动主要靠衍生品带。
$BTC 回踩 80000–81000 分批接，站上 82500 再看；$ETH 回踩 2400 接，跌破 2320 走人。链上在买不代表明天就涨，仓位别一次打满。$BTC $ETH #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? 【Minimalist Chan Theory】
Reviewing yesterday's long position, the structure was complete when the price rose to 8.29. From the 5-minute perspective, it showed a consolidation divergence (Fig.1 - price made a new high, but the yellow and white lines did not, the exit segment is weaker than the entry segment).
From the 30-minute perspective (Fig.2 - the exit stroke is weaker than the entry stroke, and the volume clearly weakened, indicating volume-price divergence). These two levels represent resonant divergence, retracing the 5-minute upward segment, and now the 5-minute upward segment is rebounding.
I made the same mistake as before. Although the target for the first 30-minute segment was around 8.4, the market showed obvious divergence at 8.3. I hesitated and wanted to close half the position but didn’t. When the 5-minute retracement hit 8.24, I still didn’t exit, again failing to align knowledge and action, feeling frustrated 🥲🥲
Now the profit has retraced about half from the peak, roughly 5K (Fig.3). If this rebound can’t reach around 8.4, it’s very likely to fall back and break the previous low. However, breaking the previous low at 7.97 still means going long to rebound. As mentioned before, the decline lacks strength and is clearly divergent.
From my personal perspective, the strong decline in this 5-minute segment likely means the 30-minute upward segment has ended. What happens next in the market is up to the market. The core of this analysis is: BTC is facing short-term capital outflow pressure, but large holders continue to accumulate, indicating a battle between bullish and bearish forces in the market. $80,000 is a key level to watch; whether it holds will influence whether the market enters a range-bound phase or continues to decline.
As of October 15, 2026, market reports show that the US spot BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of about $261.5 million; during the same period, inflation data exceeded expectations, causing BTC to briefly drop to around $81,000. On the other hand, on-chain data shows that wallets holding at least 100 BTC increased their holdings by about 60,000 BTC in August.
1. Why do ETF outflows and large holder purchases happen simultaneously?
#MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook $BTC Last night's dip to $80,000 probably made many friends' hearts skip a beat. Everyone should be able to see that this is the combined effect of hotter-than-expected US inflation, weakening Asian markets, and declining risk appetite. But I believe the most important information from this move is that the market completed a position reshuffle in a short time. During the drop, the bulls were forced to sell, and during the rebound, the shorts may have started to cover. The price looks like it just bounced back from around $80,000, but the players inside have already changed.
So, judging by the current price, it doesn't look like a guaranteed rise after liquidation, but more like a technical repair after deleveraging. Spot demand has not fully returned. A true trend reversal should be accompanied by a rise in spot trading volume, the price firmly standing above $82,600 again, and ETF flows no longer continuously deteriorating.
Also, although the liquidation amount this time was large, it doesn't mean the selling pressure is completely over. Some bulls were just liquidated, and the remaining spot holders may still be waiting for better prices to exit. I do not recommend using "it has already dropped" as a reason to add positions. #US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Fifteen minutes ago it was still frying in hot oil, fifteen minutes later a ladle of broth poured it back into the pot—CoreWeave dropped 15.46% on October 14, then pulled back 5.9% on the 15th. This isn’t cooking; it’s scraping off the burnt crust at the bottom of the pot and re-plating it, hoping diners will forget the burnt smell just now.
Jensen Huang spoke: financial conditions are improving, capital costs are falling, no need for extra guarantees. Translated into kitchen slang—supplier personally stands at the serving window, beating his chest saying, "I own this pot of soup." Deutsche Bank also maintains a buy rating, with a nicely written reason: long-term contracts, backlog of orders. But anyone who’s stood at the stove for ten years knows backlog is just a prep list; chopped scallions, ginger, and garlic lying on a stainless steel tray aren’t dishes, they’re risk of spoilage.
Over $100 billion in prep lists need to be truly cooked pot by pot to count as revenue and cash flow. Computing power delivery is the serving window; if it can’t be served, no matter how loud the front desk drums, the kitchen is still a mess.
And the stove’s temperature doesn’t lie. Its 2032 bond yield exceeds 15%, and the five-year credit default swap spread hits 1,195 basis points. This isn’t aroma, it’s the smoke detector screaming. Michelin can give you stars, but the fire alarm doesn’t care how many stars you have.
Switching to cheaper oil can indeed suppress costs; but cheaper oil doesn’t mean the dish won’t burn. Lower capital costs mean changing the oil, delivery progress is the cooking time, and credit spreads are the thickness of the burnt layer at the bottom—if these three don’t align, no matter how exquisite the plating, it’s a failed tasting.
Building an investment portfolio is like preparing a banquet. Mainstream coins are the main dishes, holding the scene; altcoins are the seasonings, the amount determines the flavor; leveraged contracts are the jar of extra spicy chili—two drops enhance flavor, half a jar and guests get burned through their guts and rushed to the hospital overnight. Right now, this credit spread is like chili oil already choking the next table: same kitchen, same gas pipes, same batch of computing power suppliers, one stove catches fire, the whole building’s exhaust system suffers. The token linked to Broadcom on the market is also shaking with this smoke.
So the real question isn’t whether this one can hold on, but whether the smoke will drift through the pipes into the neighboring cloud kitchens also cooking fiercely. Their pots are just as hot, their menus just as thick, and under their pots lies borrowed fire.
If the serving window slows, the whole pot burns, and the burnt smell never stays in one kitchen. #jensenbackscoreweaveWritten before the new week in the crypto circle: October is already halfway through, yet the crypto circle still hasn't seen an easy answer. The anticipated "rising October" has encountered repeated price fluctuations and hesitant capital. Looking back at the past week, my deepest impression is: the market still has buyers willing to catch the dips, but how long this willingness can last remains to be answered by upcoming data. On October 16, after Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 the previous trading day, it returned to around $82,000. According to the market report at 13:48 Beijing time, Bitcoin was about $82,130, but as of the report, the weekly chart still had the possibility of a second consecutive week of decline. Such a rebound is enough to temporarily ease sentiment but not enough to seal the weekly trend. The weekend is not over yet, and the weekly chart is not finalized. More worth examining than the price is the hesitation of capital. According to the daily data aggregated by Farside, from October 12 to 15, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a total net outflow of about $146 million, and Ethereum ETFs had a total net outflow of about $250.4 million. Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of about $175.7 million on the 13th, but then a net outflow of about $261.4 million on the 14th. A day's inflow was then offset by a larger outflow. This makes me more inclined to interpret this week as a phase of capital repeatedly testing the waters; declaring the market has turned based on a single day's rise is not enough evidence. This hesitation can also be partly explained by the macro environment. On October 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released that the September CPI year-over-year increased by#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight, bullish⚠️For personal review only, not investment advice, the crypto market is highly risky.
ETH has been consolidating around 2444 for two days, caught in a dilemma. On-chain old wallets from 2017 continue to transfer out, with a cost basis of only $14, holding for nine years with over 170x profit, currently moving funds to exchanges.
Many retail investors think 2400 is cheap compared to 2800, but ancient holders have extremely low cost bases; transferring to exchanges is to realize profits and exit. This round of rebound stalled at 2448, volume continues to shrink, and 2480-2500 is packed with trapped positions.
The futures market still has 43.8 billion open interest; a break below 2316 will trigger multi-billion level long liquidations. The 2671 short position is still held; current price shorting can be referenced with stop loss above 2500 and target at 2316. Please judge the market yourself.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
#Ancient addresses continue to unload, rebound weak, beware of pullback$BTC What deserves attention next is not just the price, but the liquidity distribution.
According to this set of order book information:
Sell orders below $90K are relatively sparse
There are a large number of buy orders around $75K
If these orders truly exist and remain in place, the resistance above may be relatively limited, while there could be buying support below.
But this does not mean BTC will definitely surge to $90K.
Large orders may be canceled or could just be short-term liquidity arrangements.
I will focus on three signals:
Whether sell orders continue to be consumed as the price rises.
Whether buy orders near $75K are genuinely executed.
Whether $BTC's trading volume and spot buying increase synchronously.
Don't just look at how large the orders are; see if these orders are actually executed in the end. Overlaying two renderings rigidly onto one blueprint, daring to talk about topping out before even finishing the foundation—that was my first reaction to this scenario.
Changing the equity swap ratio to 0.7 sounds like proportional scaling, but in reality, it forcibly merges two buildings with completely different structural systems into one load-bearing column. Tesla’s side is a reinforced concrete frame—heavy asset, long cycle, cash flow built on piles one by one; SpaceX’s side is a suspension bridge plus a rocket launch tower—R&D burns money, nodes are extremely unstable, relying on the success rate of single launches to support overall stiffness. You say AI, robotics, energy, and space have synergy? In design institutes, synergy is called "structure finding form"—it looks beautiful on paper, but at the construction level, all node methods must be redone, and wind load and seismic coefficients must be recalculated.
The real hidden danger lies in the voting rights distribution. Thirty-seven percent economic interest leverages fifty-six percent voting rights—this is a typical eccentric support frame—looks like saving materials and costs, but actually puts all seismic resistance on a few key nodes. Once nodes fatigue, the whole building doesn’t just crack locally, it topples entirely. Minority shareholder rights here are like those canceled seismic joints—unnoticeable normally, but the only pressure relief channel when something goes wrong.
More critically is the approval process. Renderings at the proposal stage can be drawn daily by reporters, but construction drawings require approval, seismic special demonstration, environmental assessment, and fire protection. Now, there’s not even a geological survey report, no board approval, no regulatory filing—everything is still at the conceptual rendering stage. Doing any valuation discount analysis at this stage is like pouring a bearing platform on sand—the load hasn’t been applied yet, but the piles have already sunk.
As for the market target linkage, my judgment is simple: when onlookers start bidding on a rendering, it means the project’s real structural information has stopped being supplied. At this point, the price reflects not load-bearing capacity, but foot traffic.
A true architect never reports a completion date to the owner before pile foundation acceptance. #spacextesladealscenarioOne hour after the US stock market opened, BTC, ETH, and SOL all pulled back, but I’m not watching the price, I’m watching another data point.
$BTC current price 82358, up 1.47%. $ETH 2475, up 4.34%, $SOL 106.3, up 3.12%. It looks lively, but open interest is decreasing. BTC dropped from 2.58 billion to 2.45 billion, the long-short ratio dropped from 1.88 to 1.76, ETH’s long-short ratio dropped from 2.73 to 1.85. SOL dropped from 2.72 to 2.31.
Putting these three data points together, the meaning is straightforward: leverage is retreating, it’s not new money coming in. The price is pushed up by short covering, not active buying. After the US stock market opened, tech stocks didn’t crash, giving crypto a breather, but this is a correction, not a reversal.
BTC faces heavy resistance between 83000-84000, ETH has trapped positions at 2500, SOL’s hurdle is 110. If these three levels aren’t broken, the rebound is for reducing positions, not for adding positions.
I still haven’t opened any trades today, I don’t chase this kind of corrective market. Tomorrow I’ll wait for the US stock market close to see ETF fund flows before deciding what to do.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises
#SpaceX’s first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed The isobars over the Strait of Hormuz are visibly collapsing inward to the naked eye. This is not an ordinary cyclonic disturbance; it is a strong typhoon that has already completed an eyewall replacement cycle—over the past week, oil tanker flow measured by Kpler has been cut to 9.7 million barrels per day, down 43% from the pre-conflict pressure baseline. The Singapore-flagged GFS Pride sank directly into the sea on the night of October 13; that was not just a normal gust passing through, it was the eyewall sweeping directly over.
As someone who has been watching weather charts for half a lifetime, I can clearly tell everyone that this system has entered an explosive intensification phase. Brent’s closing price of $105.92 per barrel is just the outer circulation precipitation; the real heavy rain area has not yet made landfall. WTI’s 3% increase is just a drizzle before the typhoon, not enough to wet the ground.
The key variables now are the counteractions of three air masses. The first is the warm, moist airflow from Saudi Arabia increasing production, moving northward trying to fill the gap; the second is the lateral jet stream of alternative export routes—bypassing the strait via overland pipelines and transshipment through the Red Sea—forming a new moisture channel. These two airflows can indeed bring some precipitation relief, but the problem is their transport capacity has limits, and their physical paths are longer with higher unit costs.
The third and most troublesome is the cold front formed by freight and insurance costs. Once shipowners factor risk premiums into their quotes, it’s like injecting an inversion layer into the atmosphere—it won’t immediately cause heavy rain, but it will lock all convection, severely suppressing the speed of supply recovery. Markets under an inversion layer have very poor diffusion conditions; any slight disturbance will be amplified into costly strong convection.
Looking at the US stock token $xSNDK’s linkage line, its price structure essentially tracks a cross-market humidity field. Once crude oil breaks through the current circulation pattern, the inflation expectation upper trough will deepen its lower swing, and the convective potential energy of equity assets will reaccumulate. The current volatility reading of $xSNDK indicates it is being pulled by two airflows—one is the uplift from rising energy costs, the other is the subsidence from shrinking risk appetite, with strong shear that could produce a tornado at any time.
I need to point out an easily overlooked secondary disaster: alternative routes are not free weather insurance. They spread the blockage risk of a single channel into cumulative insurance rates across multiple channels. When all ships reroute, congestion on alternative routes itself becomes a new low-pressure center, which in turn further sucks freight rates. This is a positive feedback loop, called self-excited growth in meteorology, which once triggered, takes a long time to dissipate naturally.
Current numerical forecasts present two scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, the strait recovers to 80% flow within two weeks, and oil prices fluctuate sideways between $100 and $108, akin to cloudy to overcast weather. In the pessimistic scenario, if a third or fourth commercial ship is hit in the same narrow waterway, flow will drop below 7 million barrels per day, Brent’s overhead trough line will rise sharply, and $xSNDK will experience a rapid downward shear following the equity market’s humidity plunge.
What I personally focus on more is when the eyewall will truly make landfall. The sinking of GFS Pride is data from an outpost, not the peak. The real pressure trough value often appears when the public thinks the eye has passed; at that time, the wind direction reverses and the storm presses back from the other side.
The current wind and wave level in the strait is still rising; no high-resolution model can provide a convergent conclusion. #hormuzoilshippingrisks #SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after going public will be unveiled $INJ vs $BNB :The Market Is Sending Mixed Signals
INJ's rally looks convincing, but aggressive buying after a sharp rise can also signal late entries. The risk is that early longs start taking profits just as new buyers arrive.
BNB is more interesting than its price suggests. Buyers are active despite the decline, potentially indicating accumulation.
My view:INJ has momentum, but BNB may offer a more interesting recovery setup if buying persists.
Strong momentum isn't always the best opportunity📉 81000 is under pressure for the third time, how much longer can BTC hold?
On October 9th, 12th, and 15th, BTC tested around 81000 three times, temporarily not breaking through, but each rebound peak is lower than the last. The 400-day moving average acts like a watershed; buying support is thinning. If it breaks, the psychological level of 80000 will be tested, with 78000 as the next buffer zone. ⚠️
$ETH is not easy either. ETF net outflows have continued for 10 days, early whales transferred 6369 ETH (about $23 million) to exchanges, signaling clear selling pressure; heavy sell orders around 2382 create strong resistance to rebounds. ZEC has retraced about 36% from the high of 1698, showing altcoin vulnerability again. 😰
🌍 Macro conditions have not improved: US September CPI year-over-year is 3.7%, higher than the previous 3.4%, inflation remains sticky, and the probability of a rate hike in October once rose to 47%. The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 62 to 52, shifting sentiment from greed to neutral.
Technical fatigue combined with macro headwinds means the battle at 81000 will determine the short-term rhythm. At this moment, cash and patience are more precious than impulse. 💵⏳#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? ETH, $SOL, and OKB are all waiting for positive news and all have the chance to take off. But if you ask who will move first, it still depends on the strength of the foundation:
1. $ETH is waiting for the Glamsterdam mainnet. The staking rate hitting a new high at 36% indicates long-term chips are locked up, but in the short term, there are issues with ETF outflows and BitMine buying pressure nearing saturation.
At the 2450 level, my judgment is to wait for selling pressure confirmation rather than a market reversal.
2. SOL is waiting for the ETF to stop the bleeding. There is currently a treasury company continuously buying, which is why it’s more stable than ETH—at least there’s support underneath.
But nine consecutive days of net outflows is no joke; for now, let’s see if the 100-dollar mark can hold.
3. $OKB needs to wait for no one. The 120 level is independently strengthening, with the BSC ecosystem plus buyback dual engines, holding the starting gun in its own hands.
Brothers, this kind that doesn’t rely on external forces is actually the most reassuring to sleep well at night. The technical structure is still relatively weak, yet the shorts have already started to crowd in. @梁老表 The strongest reminder here is not to go long immediately, but rather not to interpret "there is still room to fall" as "the price will definitely drop to the order placement level." In his view, BTC is currently in a complex oscillation, with short-term stop-loss sweeps back and forth. The real time window to be cautious about is around October 19 to 21. He remains somewhat bullish on the long-term cycle but clearly admits that the current price action makes it difficult to give a clear short-term direction. After going long, the price might continue to drop; after going short, it might suddenly pull back. Since there is no sufficient certainty, there is no need to force daily trades. Reducing contract trading frequency and managing spot fund allocation well is more important than betting on a direction in the middle of the range. First, look at BTC's liquidity conflicts. The analyst observed that after a sweep around 81,600, short liquidations gradually accumulated above. He mentioned the areas near 83,200 to 83,600 and further from 84,200 to 85,000 as zones short-term shorts should watch. These positions are areas where he observes liquidity and potential order sweeps, not guaranteed price targets, nor unconditional entry signals. His logic is that during oscillation phases, it’s easy to repeatedly harvest around dense leverage: longs below are just swept, and shorts above start to concentrate. If you only focus on the short structure but ignore the increasingly dense stop losses above, a single rebound could wash out even those who correctly judged the direction. The liquidation map here serves as a risk warning; it cannot replace trade confirmation, nor should any brightly colored area be taken as a guaranteed profit opportunity. Everyone's watching whether Netflix beats Q3 earnings
I'm watching the wording of the bet: OKX needs reported GAAP EPS above $0.84, while Netflix guided $0.82
A routine one-cent beat still settles NO
That tiny gap makes tax, FX and share count just as important as hit shows
A good quarter for $NFLX and a winning YES ticket are not the same thing
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins a16z is fully committed to betting on Hyperliquid. On-chain data shows it is slowly accumulating HYPE using hundreds of addresses with TWAP, holding 5.2 million tokens, with unrealized profits nearing $100 million, and all staked and locked.
Here’s the question—when a top VC locks in their chips, is it because they truly believe in the ecosystem, or are they afraid of sell pressure? Retail investors rush in, but what do you have to compete with their patience? $HYPE #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight
Netflix's fundamentals remain solid, and the advertising business is a tangible second growth curve, but it is undergoing a difficult transition from a "high-growth myth" to a "mature and stable company." The tension between short-term stock price pressure and long-term value is the biggest current contradiction.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Netflix reports its Q3 earnings on October 20, and investors are watching two key factors: revenue growth and the expansion of its advertising business.
📊 Here’s what the market expects:
💰 Revenue: $12.86 billion, up approximately 12% year-over-year.
📈 Operating Margin: 33.2%, compared to 28.2% last year.The numbers point to stronger profitability, but there’s a catch: growth is slowing compared to previous years.The big question is will Netflix’s advertising business$ETH PPI连续爆表，宏观逆风再起，别急着接飞刀。
这次市场没法装看不见了。9月PPI环比+1.3%，预期才0.5%；核心+0.7%，预期0.3%，连续两个月走强。不是能源一家的戏，是成本、服务、中游一起拱——通胀压力往深处扎了。
“更高更久”这四个字一回来，风险资产首当其冲。加密这种零票息、纯流动性的东西，最先被抽桌子。$BTC #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
The boss has something to say
The first long BTC position was entered at 82000, taking profit after 800 points gain. The second position averaged around 81800 and is still held.
Why enter long at 82000? This is the lower edge of a previous dense chip accumulation zone and the first support above the 80,000 round number. ETFs are flowing out, but whales have been accumulating in this range since late August, increasing holdings by about 60,000 coins, with costs between 80,000 and 86,000. Some are still buying below, so the drop isn’t deep.
The second position at 81800 is better positioned with a smaller stop loss space. Stop loss is set at 80500; if broken, it means the 80,000 level can’t hold, so cut losses and exit. The first target is 84000, the second target is 86000. At the first target, reduce half the position, keep the rest at breakeven to see if it can reach higher.
Macro pressure remains. CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, inflation has risen for three consecutive months, and rate hike expectations persist. US Treasury yields are high, and oil prices are also under pressure. Therefore, long positions are short-term plays, not bottom fishing. Reduce positions at targets, don’t hold on stubbornly.
Control position size well, avoid heavy positions. There is resistance between 84000 and 85000; decide whether to stay or leave based on volume there.
Don’t chase the rally or panic sell, set stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.