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An interesting scene tonight: Jensen Huang in Berlin shouted "The AI market turmoil will eventually pass," and almost at the same time, AWS's CFO came out to endorse "AI spending is sustainable, server payback period is less than three years, demand is real." Two giants on the same night, with the same tone, soothing the market.
Traders need to learn to read in reverse: When does a cloud giant's CFO personally come out to guarantee "payback period is less than three years"? Is it when no one doubts it, or when the market has already started to question whether borrowing money to stack computing power is really worth it?
Supportive statements have never been a signal of a bottom, but a signal that doubts have already been put on the table. What I focus on is not what they say, but things that vote with their feet like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling for eight consecutive days and the widening AI bond yield spreads. $BTC this round is tied to AI deleveraging on the same rope; words can't save the structure.Brothers, both CPI and PPI have surged beyond expectations, and the dream of a rate cut has been dashed again. Now the whole screen is asking: Will the Fed dare to raise rates once more this year?
【My Judgment】
Directly restarting rate hikes is still unlikely; however, "higher for longer" is basically confirmed. No chance of rate cuts by year-end; pricing is pushed to next year. The longer high rates drag on, the harder it is for risk assets like BTC, so don't expect a major bull run in the medium term.
【Live Trading Update】
After the data release, BTC surged then softened, so I opened a short at 82228.1 with 100x leverage, currently floating profit of 39.66U, a return rate of 24.11%. The logic is straightforward: inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, macro bearish factors land, bulls lose strength, shorting has a higher win rate than bottom fishing.
【Next Steps】
Short-term bearish trend continues, first watch 81500; if broken, space opens up; on the upside, 83000, wait for volume to stabilize before changing strategy. The rebound is an opportunity to add to short positions; high leverage must be accompanied by stop-loss, never hold against the trend.
$BTC #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $ATOM Inflation of ATOM is being gradually squeezed to death
ATOM rose to 1.77 today, but more worth watching than the price is the tokenomics reform Gauntlet is working on.
The core conclusion of the first phase is straightforward: the problem with ATOM is not inflation itself, but who the new tokens are given to and how they are used. The second phase focuses on dynamic inflation and reducing liquidity rewards, with the long-term goal of replacing inflation-driven yields with real income. In August 2026, ATOM has already launched a fee-driven buyback and burn model, shifting from an inflationary token to a deflationary one.
At the same time, the Osmosis merge proposal has been revised to cancel new ATOM minting and instead use DEX revenue to buy back ATOM on the open market, capped at 2.5% of the total supply.
Inflation is decreasing, buybacks are rising. The pricing paradigm shift is underway.
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus ZEC short positions liquidations account for 72%, should I close my short?
As of around 8 AM, ZEC has seen about $12.54 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, with shorts making up 72%. In the last 12 hours, total ZEC liquidations across the network exceeded $68 million, with short liquidations over $66 million. A short squeeze has already occurred, and the fuel for continuing to short is running out.
Garrett Jin's ZEC short position is currently at an unrealized loss of $33.83 million, with a liquidation price of 4,790; he is still holding. Hyperliquid is the second largest ZEC short holder, with an unrealized loss of $1.177 million.
What does a short squeeze mean? It means a large number of shorts are forced to close positions and cover, potentially drying up buying pressure. If ZEC continues to rebound, shorts will be further squeezed out.
My positions: ZEC short -268%, CL short -152%, BTC long -287%
Currently, all positions are at unrealized losses!
ZEC short squeeze, are you still holding your short? How long will you choose to hold?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The realized market value of new Bitcoin whales is $78.61 billion, while that of old whales is $159.15 billion. New whales account for 33.06%, compared to about 18% earlier in 2026. Since September, the realized market value of new whales has continued to grow, while that of old whales has remained basically flat; the growth mainly comes from new whales. Realized market value is calculated based on the price at the last on-chain transfer of tokens and does not represent the proportion of BTC supply. In terms of cost, the overall cost basis of new whales dropped from around $110,000 near the previous high to about $68,000 at the end of August, then rebounded to about $77,000, which is approximately 6.7% higher than the cost basis of new whales. Analysis suggests that data shows large holders bought during the downturn and continued to increase holdings as prices recovered. However, holder group replacement and transfers between addresses can also push up realized market value, so the increase in realized market value should not be seen as an equivalent inflow of new funds. If BTC continues to fall below around $77,000, new whales will be at a loss again, increasing the likelihood of selling during a rebound. Exchange inflows and realized losses can be used to determine whether this is short-term pressure or large holders resuming selling. #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? I find this wave of Bitcoin's movement very interesting,
briefly surging to around 82,828, failing to break through 83,000, then starting to decline. Bears tried to crash the market near 82,000, hitting a low of 81,675, but they may have underestimated the strength of the bulls' support. The price was quickly bought back and is now back near 81,900. What does this indicate? I think there is indeed short-term selling pressure, but there are also many buyers waiting below.
In the news, Charles Schwab announced that all clients can directly purchase Bitcoin, covering over 40 million customers. This kind of news won't cause Bitcoin to surge immediately, but its significance is real: traditional financial channels are gradually opening, and incremental funds are no longer just hot money within the crypto circle but more allocation-oriented capital.
So for the short-term bulls and bears, I think it can be understood like this:
Bearish side: Bitcoin had a previous surge, some took profits; there is trapped capital near 83,000; the market currently lacks particularly strong new catalysts, so pushing higher will be difficult.
Bullish side: Traditional institutional access is expanding, spot buying is relatively strong; bears failed to push below 81,695, indicating limited panic selling; every deep dip finds willing buyers.
My conclusion is: the short term is more likely to be consolidation rather than a one-sided bearish turn. I won't panic because of a single bearish candle, nor will I chase during a surge. $BTC $ZEC $SOL #ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold $80,000? PPI skyrocketed, but the market is still hyped? ZEC surged ridiculously, shorts got liquidated for $160 million again! This market is truly surreal😱
Clearly, PPI exceeded expectations across the board, so why didn’t the negative news crush the market? The core reason: short covering. BTC first dipped to 79,800, shorts thought they had it in the bag, but 90 minutes later it reversed sharply above 82,300; ZEC shot up from 1,071 to 1,233, my hedged short got wiped out💥
Three driving forces:
1️⃣ US Treasury yields fell from 5.36% to 5.04%, giving risk assets a breather.
2️⃣ Trump pressured Congress to advance crypto legislation, Treasury expanded bond buybacks, policy expectations ignited sentiment.
3️⃣ $160 million in shorts liquidated in 24 hours, longs only $54.82 million, a short squeeze triggered🔥
Did you get swept in this move? Will the rebound continue, or will it fall back after short covering ends and momentum fades?🤔资金正在从狗狗币撤出。10月7日到8日，DOGE多头清算1600万美元；此前四天，现货市场流出5500万美元。两笔钱来自不同方向：一笔是杠杆仓位被强平，一笔是持币者卖出离场。
单看规模，这轮撤退谈不上致命。DOGE日均成交5到10亿美元，5500万的流出只占几天成交量的一小部分，市场深度足以消化。关键在方向：清算说明做多的杠杆资金离场，现货流出说明实盘资金也在撤离，两条线指向同一结论——钱在撤出DOGE，而不是在场内换手。
杠杆与现货同步撤退，比单日的大额清算更值得跟踪。强平可以在一天内完成，现货流出却需要持币者一天接一天做出卖出决定。流出持续四天，意味着卖方不是被动离场，而是在降低敞口。
接下来盯两个信号：现货流出是否放缓，清算规模是否回落。流出延续而成交走低，$DOGE 的反弹会缺少承接；流出收敛，这轮撤退就更像一次仓位调整，而非趋势反转。The market suddenly quieted down, BTC stuck around 80,980, ETH hovering around 2,400, and I was staring at that 4-hour chart, feeling a jolt in my heart. Can these two whole number levels really hold? Honestly, this drop is not undeserved. Both the US CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, pushing back rate cut expectations, and risk appetite shrank directly. Not to mention the sudden escalation in US-Iran tensions, global funds instinctively fleeing to safe-haven assets, with high-leverage markets like crypto taking the hardest hit. One number is quite striking: the correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq once surged to 0.96, almost moving in lockstep, indicating it is now being traded purely as a risk asset. The ETF side doesn’t look good either. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $146 million this week, and the ETH ETF outflow was about $60 million. That previous large IBIT trade of $1.3 billion now looks more like institutions reducing positions rather than just turnover. With thin buying, prices naturally slide easily. Technically, my feeling is that the bears have strong momentum. BTC’s 4-hour ADX reached 51.77, far exceeding the 25 trend confirmation line, indicating this downtrend is serious. 80,000 is a psychological barrier and also a key reference below the IBIT holding cost of 81,500; if it closes below continuously, ETF investors will face unrealized losses again, possibly triggering a new round of redemptions. ETH has already lost 2,357 #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Empty positions waiting for the wind｜ETF tide recedes, CPI strikes again 🌪️
No surprises on the funding front: BTC spot ETFs saw another outflow of about $65.4 million, with BlackRock's IBIT being the main drag, while 11 others basically stood by; ETH was weaker, with a single-day outflow of about $85.4 million, totaling about $151 million. The one-day rebound was just a splash, continuous inflows are needed to stop the bleeding, which we haven't seen yet. 📉
I have taken profits on over 84,000 contracts and am keeping empty positions. CPI exceeded expectations, inflation has risen for three months, the shadow of rate hikes returns, so Bitcoin naturally struggles to breathe. ETFs and short-term prices sometimes don't sync; there is buying interest, but it's not continuous, chasing longs is not cost-effective. 🧊
Strategy: Don't rush to bottom-fish yet, let CPI and TSMC earnings fly for a while. Watch 80,000 below; if 82,000 doesn't break, treat it as a range-bound market. Bank channel expansion is a slow process and won't save short-term funds. Don't chase rallies or sell off aggressively, set stop losses properly. Judgments are time-sensitive, risk control comes first, good luck. ✅存储股这波暴跌，到底发生了什么？📉
一句话先说结论：
美光 MU、闪迪 SNDK、SK 海力士这次集体下跌，并不是存储行业基本面突然崩了，而是「估值杀 + 韩国资金托底消失 + AI 预期下调 + 美债收益率上行」几股力量同时撞在了一起。
所以这轮更像是高位杀估值，而不是行业逻辑彻底反转。
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🧨 01｜这次为什么跌得这么狠？
我觉得第一个导火索，是韩国两大存储巨头的回购提前结束。
之前三星、SK 海力士的大额回购，本身就相当于给股价提供了一层“安全垫”。
但10月初回购提前结束以后，市场开始担心：
后面没有巨头持续买回来托底了。
韩国市场资金开始出现集中卖出，随后压力进一步传导到美股存储板块。
于是原本就处在高位的 MU、SNDK，很容易成为资金兑现利润的对象。
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📉 02｜真正让市场害怕的，是2027—2028年
这里是我觉得最容易被忽略的一点。
现在的基本面，其实没有大家想象得那么差。
HBM、服务器 DRAM 需求依然强，部分产品价格也还在上涨，订单并没有突然消失。
问题是：
资本市场炒的从来不是今天，而是未来。If ETH's recent sideways movement is actually accumulation rather than a cooldown, then what we should be watching most closely now is not ETH itself, but the interaction rhythm between it, ZEC, and BTC. Have you noticed that recently, the real first movers often aren't ETH? My own feeling is that ETH is repeatedly consolidating with shrinking volume, which looks like "no market activity," but such phases are often the silence before a launch, not distribution. The mindset in the original text about wanting to add to positions to average down, yet fearing that short positions at 850 won't break even, is actually very typical: position anxiety outweighs structural judgment. But the market won't change direction because of anyone's cost basis. Let's look at the facts first. ETH's volatility narrowing and some accumulation indicates selling pressure is temporarily light; but "shrinking volume" itself does not mean "it will rise," it only means the divergence is narrowing. What truly determines the next move is cross-market linkage: if BTC holds its high level, risk appetite will spill over, and high-beta assets like ETH and ZEC will have room for catch-up gains; conversely, if BTC loses its key range, ETH's sideways movement will turn from accumulation into a false calm before distribution. ZEC is even more subtle. Treating "liquidation price safety" as a safety cushion is a blind spot many overlook. Liquidation line safety only means you won't be forcibly liquidated for now, it doesn't mean the direction is on your side. ZEC's volatility has always been more extreme than ETH's; once the sector rotates to privacy narratives or altcoin catch-up, it may suddenly surge; but if the overall market weakens, its pullback will be faster and deeper. So ZEC's "safety" is relative, depending on whether BTC cooperates. At this stage, I tend to define it as divergence $MSTR yesterday started from 140, placing orders in batches down to 120, then I went to sleep. When I woke up, I found only trades executed down to 135. After the close, the system automatically canceled the remaining orders. I then re-placed orders, set to remain valid until canceled, placing orders down to 120. After hours at 136, another trade was filled. I'm not greedy; 120-13x is my entry plan and target.
Currently, the average executed price is over 137, equivalent to buying BTC at a 10% discount. Although I know MSTR hasn't bottomed yet, I'm quite satisfied with this price. Before the main uptrend starts, being able to buy below the 200-day weekly moving average and all long-term daily moving averages, I pay a higher price than predecessors but save a lot of waiting time. Also, it's more cost-effective than buying BTC spot directly, at a 10% discount.
$BTC price is basically around 815, not moving much. But last night $MSTR dropped over 10% due to panic from excluding the index, with rumors that passive funds would sell 2 billion. For a 60 billion market cap, 2 billion isn't that panic-inducing. Sellers can issue 2 billion easily each time. I think the market is overreacting; this is a very good buying opportunity but needs time to verify my judgment.
Building positions in batches from September to November, my investment work in October has made significant progress ✅
Currently MSTR is at an 11% discount, October is the discount month, I'm not lying to you Friends always ask: Where exactly are the bottom and top of $BTC? Changing the frame of reference, the answer is much clearer than candlestick charts. By comparing Bitcoin's market cap to gold's market cap, a stepwise upward trajectory emerges. Bull market tops: 4.2% in 2017, 10.3% in 2021, 11.4% in 2025. Bear market lows: 0.73% in 2018, 2.65% in 2022, and the current cycle's phase low appeared in June 2026, around 4.2%. The most striking signal is here: the current bear market phase low has already matched the 2017 bull market top. Each deep crash has been severe, but the valuation anchor based on gold has never stopped rising. This is no coincidence; it reflects the continuous depreciation of fiat currency re-pricing hard assets—gold rises first, $BTC follows, just with more intense rhythm. How to calculate the top? If the ratio returns to the previous high of 11.4%, $BTC would be about $167,000. But this is a static assumption. If gold rises another 50% in the same period, the same ratio would push $BTC to around $250,000. The same ratio, two completely different prices—the difference lies entirely in gold's pricing. The market generally only focuses on the dollar price, ignoring the expanding denominator. Most people treat the bear market low as a "zeroing rehearsal," but they don't see that the low itself is systemically rising—this is the most underestimated narrative of the current cycle. Confirmation signals to watch are twofold: whether gold continues its strength, and whether the $BTC-to-gold ratio can hold above 4.2% and break upward. If the ratio falls below this area #US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be Another Rate Hike This Year? US inflation data for September cooled the market for two consecutive days. CPI year-on-year surged to 3.7%, with the core reaching 2.6%; immediately after, PPI was even more dramatic, soaring to 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month, both significantly exceeding expectations. Energy was the main driver, but core indicators were also hot, indicating that pressure is spreading more broadly rather than being solely an oil price issue.
After this data was released, market expectations for the Federal Reserve quickly adjusted. The probability of a rate hike at the October meeting once approached 50/50 after the CPI release, then fell back to around 20%, and now the preference is to hold steady for the time being; however, the probability of another hike in December is significantly higher. At least one more rate hike this year has become the mainstream view.
Current rates are already in the 3.75%-4% range, with a hike just made in September. Chair Warsh has repeatedly emphasized in public that "price stability must be achieved," but deliberately avoided giving a path guidance. Most other officials also believe another move is needed this year, just not urgently in October. The labor market is still holding up, so the Fed is not yet cornered. $ETH $BTC With the midterm elections approaching, policy communication will be more cautious, but the data itself has put the "another rate hike this year" option back on the table.
In short: the signal of inflation picking up again is quite clear, the probability of another rate hike this year is not low, but the timing is more likely in December rather than the end of this month. Subsequent focus will be on PCE and employment data trends.#HBM4 mass production: Can it drive SK Hynix's profits to new highs again? $BTC 5 Crude Conclusions for Today's Traders
1) BTC is currently around 81662–81700, neither a bottom nor a breakout level.
2) Fed's Wash "no forecast" = short-term rate hike panic subsides, but December remains uncertain.
3) Institutions buy, retail sell; this is a slow variable, not an intraday pump.
4) 10Y US Treasury at 5.12%, Brent oil at 110, Nasdaq down 2% — all are ceilings above BTC.
5) Key levels 80800/82500: no break, no follow; if broken, don't chase the tail.
Don't be a hero today, be a survivor. Staying alive at 81700 is more important than making $300 above 81700. $BTC #SpaceX's first full quarterly report post-IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC US deficit is off the charts, this is a long-term script for BTC, not a short-term catalyst
Fiscal year 2026 federal deficit is $1.99 trillion, net interest expenses exceed $1 trillion for the first time, China’s holdings of US debt hit a new low since 2008, UK exceeds $1 trillion. In the long run, this fuels BTC’s "scarce asset" narrative: fiat credit is consumed by fiscal spending, institutions gradually allocate. But short-term traders don’t speculate on 2028, only on next Wednesday’s FedWatch. So for 81700, don’t believe in the "deficit bull" in the short term, but in the long term you can trust "net institutional inflows into the US = increased BTC allocation demand." Don’t mix these two logics. #SpaceX’s first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Gold’s been in a genuine multi year rerating 3,000 to 5,000+ while BTC spent that same stretch chopping in an 80-160K range and is sitting right back near the bottom of it. If bitcoin were actually being priced as “digital gold” here, the two charts would rhyme. They don’t.
So today’s 2% reads more like short covering on a volatile tape than a structural safe-haven shift. The real test is whether $BTC can start compressing its range the way gold compressed its trend that hasn’t happened yet.$BTC fell against the dollar, but BTC didn't surge much, what does this mean?
Today, the dollar index dropped for the week. According to the usual script, BTC should have surged. But BTC is stuck around 81700, indicating that the "weak dollar" bullish factor is overshadowed by "US Treasury yields at 5.12% + oil price at 110 + US stock market decline." Currently, BTC is the soft target caught in multiple macro pressures: gold can rise (safe haven), oil can rise (inflation), US Treasuries can rise (safe haven), but B coins can't move up (the most liquid among risk assets). Don't blindly go long on BTC just because the dollar is falling. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC semiconductor index has fallen for eight consecutive days, BTC's "tech brother" is struggling
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped for eight straight days, the longest streak since 2008. CoreWeave is under debt pressure, AI capital expenditures are being questioned, and funds are shifting from tech to energy/utilities/government bonds. BTC is often classified as a "tech risk asset," not as pure as "digital gold." So today, BTC didn't surge to 4200 with gold but instead fell with the Nasdaq, which is very reasonable. To turn 81700 into 85000, we need AI/semiconductors to stop falling; otherwise, every rebound gets dragged down by tech stock liquidations. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC CME FedWatch is the real invisible manipulator of BTC
Don't just focus on Binance depth, CME FedWatch is the pricing anchor today. The probability of no change in October is 82%–87%, with a 15% chance of a rate hike; but the probability of a rate hike in December is still high. BTC traders now watch three things daily: FedWatch, 10Y US Treasury, and Nasdaq futures. The support at 81700 holds because the October rate hike panic has subsided; the failure to break above 81700 is because the December tightening has not been lifted. If you trade based on the phrase "bullish rebound," sooner or later the interest rate expectations will teach you a lesson. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed TSMC's Q3 report is impressive: revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-over-year; net profit of 763.1 billion, up 68.7% year-over-year, a single-quarter record and exceeding expectations. 2nm accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced processes totaling 79%, and AI chip demand still providing support.📈
However, the stock price fell 2.67%. The market is not focused on profit but on the gross margin guidance: 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. This raises concerns that even with strong AI demand, the cost of advanced processes is eroding profits. Whether capital expenditures will continue to increase is also a point to watch.🔍
For BTC, the relationship is indirect, but the logic is similar. TSMC is a key supplier for AI computing infrastructure, and the results show AI demand is real, the computing power economy narrative remains intact, and BTC's long-term anchoring logic still holds. But the weaker gross margin guidance means the cost of burning cash is rising, and semiconductor chain valuations need to be reabsorbed. In the short term, BTC is still pressured by CPI exceeding expectations, so TSMC's impact is secondary.🧭
In terms of strategy, don't impulsively chase tech stocks just because TSMC's profits exceeded expectations. Wait for PPI data, see how US Treasury yields and the dollar move, then decide whether to buy.⚖️🚨 4.08 million $BTC have fallen into the hands of short-term holders! Why do I feel like the powder keg for Bitcoin's next big wave of volatility is already stacked?
Brothers, don't just focus on BTC rising by hundreds or falling by thousands of dollars today! This on-chain data, I think, is even more worth pondering than the candlestick charts!
The latest data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders hold 4.08 million coins, hitting a new high since mid-June. Compared to the end of July, that's an increase of 422,000 coins, about a 12% rise!
At first glance, it looks great! Newcomers are still entering, and some are willing to take the coins, indicating the market isn't cooling off.
But I'm actually a bit worried, because buying more doesn't mean holding more steadily!
Why do I say that?
First, new buyers mainly entered around $82,000 to $86,000. This batch of coins has a high cost basis, so if BTC dips a bit, some might get restless.
Second, buying momentum has clearly slowed! About 154,000 coins were added in the first two weeks of October, but only 48,000 in the past week. People are still buying, but the enthusiasm is noticeably less than before.
Third, and what I care about most: the unrealized profit buffer for short-term holders has shrunk from 16% to 10%!
What does this mean? Previously, a small dip was called a correction; now, if it falls a bit deeper, some might start rushing to exit!
Personally, I don't think this is purely bearish. It's better to have someone taking the coins than no one, but the more concentrated the short-term holdings, the more sensitive the market is to price swings.
Next, I'll focus on the average cost line of short-term holders around $74,900. If it holds, the market still has room to digest floating coins; if it really breaks down, selling pressure might be fiercer than expected.
What bulls fear most is not that no one buys, but that those who buy all think they can run before others! 😂
Finally, I ask everyone: Are these 4.08 million BTC the fuel for the next rally, or the chips for the next big shakeout?BTC rose from about $60,000 to $87,000, a stage increase of 45%. The funding rate was mostly only mildly positive, without sustained extreme spikes. This indicates that the rise was not entirely driven by perpetual contract chasing, leverage sentiment did not completely lose control, and the structure is healthier than a market built on high leverage.
But this is characteristic of the rising phase. With the US September CPI and PPI exceeding expectations and rate hike expectations heating up, BTC fell below $83,000, the funding rate turned negative, and Binance BTC funding rate once dropped to -0.0073%, with shorts regaining dominance. The market has shifted from mild bullishness to short-term defense.
ETF capital flows are also unstable: on October 15, the spot ETF had a net inflow of only $5.05 million, while the previous day saw a net outflow of $261 million. Glassnode indicates liquidity thins around $82,000, and buy orders below $80,000 concentrate near $78,000, representing passive defense.
The framework of rising prices and mild funding rates still holds, but the current environment has changed. The key points to watch next are: whether $80,000 can hold, whether ETFs can sustain net inflows, and how long the funding rate remains in negative territory before reversing. If spot buying holds steady, bulls still have a chance to push further; if liquidity continues to thin, correction volatility may increase.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC stablecoin flows tell you: Americans are buying BTC, overseas buyers are buying dollars
Another interesting point from Chainalysis: the main increase in stablecoins is overseas (digital dollar demand), while Americans rely more on BTC for value storage. So the US is a net inflow country for BTC, which doesn't mean a global bull frenzy. Overseas funds are avoiding local currency risk by holding USDT/USDC as dollars; US institutions use BTC to hedge fiscal deficits and dollar credit. Today, the US 2026 fiscal year deficit is 1.99 trillion, with interest expenses exceeding 1 trillion. Against this backdrop, institutions allocating BTC is quite reasonable. But this is a "slow money logic," not a "pump tomorrow logic." There is underlying buying support at 81700, but no short squeeze fuel. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Sun Yuchen said something many people don't want to hear.
If quantum computing poses a threat to Bitcoin $BTC within two years, can Bitcoin complete a full network upgrade within that time?
He said: almost impossible. He joined the Bitcoin community in 2012 and knows very well the pace of technological progress. The last Bitcoin SegWit upgrade caused two years of community disputes, and in the end, it was not an "upgrade completed" but a "fork" — Bitcoin then gained a sibling $BCH. The Taproot upgrade went relatively smoothly but still took 3 years. Most people in the crypto industry have no idea how slow consensus is reached on the Bitcoin network, and the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is seriously underestimated.
No one knows when quantum computing will be able to crack Bitcoin.
But the fact that "Bitcoin upgrades are so slow" doesn’t require waiting for quantum computers — it has already played out several times over the past decade.
Do you think this is alarmist, or a real hidden danger? On the chessboard, when an opponent suddenly sacrifices a rook on the seventeenth move, an ordinary player might think it was a mistake. A grandmaster sees that the sacrifice secures an entire open file and absolute dominance for the next twenty moves.
The IEA's warning on October 14 is that sacrificed rook. Diesel shortages may persist until the second half of 2027, even if refinery capacity recovers by year-end. Diesel and gasoil exports dropped by about 700,000 barrels per day year-on-year in September, with supply lines from the Middle East and Russia both disrupted. Ukraine restarted refinery strikes, and there was a fire in Ryazan. Putin has vowed to respond, but capacity losses remain uncertain. The US-Russia diesel agreement awaits delivery, despite eased restrictions. The IEA is pushing for reserve releases, including diesel.
Look closely at the endgame piece structure: the supply side’s bishops and knights have left the center; export risks weigh on the pawn chain protecting the king’s flank, and inflation is the pinned king. The market currently sees spot tightness; the grandmaster sees structural, multi-year paralysis of the pawn formation. Reserve releases are just a temporary buffer, delaying check but not resolving it.
Now consider the linked assets. The so-called tokenized US stocks are essentially passed pawns in this game—they cannot form a strong position independently and must rely on the parent stock’s moves, which itself is constrained by both interest rates and energy costs. Every step up in diesel prices raises the cost lines for transportation, manufacturing, and chemicals. Once inflation expectations rise again, the path for rate cuts shrinks, and valuations face a forced exchange. This is not a flat line; it’s a tactical combination waiting for the opponent to execute.
On a deeper level: simultaneous supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia mean pricing power is shifting from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market. The IEA’s reserve releases are using its own reserve pawns to block the opponent’s promotion squares. But reserves are limited, and time has a cost. If relief only comes in 2027, then the next two years are a midgame chokehold for all diesel-dependent economies. Restarting refineries solves tactical issues; capacity losses and geopolitical retaliation address strategic issues—they are on different levels.
The real killer moves often hide in seemingly calm endgames. While everyone watches when refineries will resume, the grandmaster watches: if reserves run out early and geopolitical disruptions escalate, what are the second and third moves? No one has calculated this line. Bulls are still cheering a rebound, but the true checkmate is already waiting in the 2027 endgame corner.
H2 2027 is not the end; it’s the moment the pawn structure freezes. #ieadieselshortageto2027 The blueprint was just laid out when the client withdrew. On October 14, VanEck filed with the SEC to withdraw the registration documents for the Lido staked Ethereum ETF—note, this blueprint never received construction approval, no concrete was poured, no floor slab was sold. This isn’t an abandoned project; it’s a land application withdrawn before even holding the groundbreaking ceremony. As someone who deals with approval departments daily, I’m very familiar with this move: sometimes it’s a problem with the geological survey report, sometimes the client’s funding stress test fails, sometimes the queue at the plan review window is too long, so they withdraw and reapply. VanEck gave no specific reason; such silence in the construction industry is often more telling than any statement.
The real structural issue isn’t this building’s exit but the foundation water level of the entire block. On October 13, there was a net inflow, but the next day about $130 million flowed out, and on October 15 another approximately $18.3 million flowed out. What is this? It’s the load-bearing wall undergoing repeated tensile and compressive cyclic loads, indicating the soil layer beneath the foundation slab is not compacted at all. On this street of spot Ethereum ETFs, cranes appear everywhere on the surface, but in reality, half the projects haven’t even properly installed their pile foundations. The staking function is an added cantilever structure; if the regulatory approval’s seismic rating is unclear, all design plans must be redrawn.
It must be clear: this withdrawal only involves a single unit and does not mean the entire area’s planning has been rejected. The overall planning permit for the staked Ethereum ETF is still pending approval in the review hall without a stamp. Anyone who mistakes the exit of a single project for the failure of the entire zoning plan commits the cardinal sin of architects—using the settlement data of one building to infer the geological structure of an entire city.
As for the linkage with the US stock token $xMSTR, I can only say: displacement of the main structure inevitably transmits to the attached podium, but the transmission path and attenuation coefficient depend on whether there is a structural joint between them. Right now, this joint is filled with emotional capital, and the resonance frequency is very unstable.
Architects’ iron rule: withdrawing blueprints is common; whether the foundation has cracks is the real critical point. Currently, the slab spacing in this block is being reexamined. #vaneckdropslidoetf🌪️【Urgent Meteorological Bulletin】A super typhoon eye codenamed "2 Nanometer" has formed over the Northwest Pacific, with central pressure plummeting to a historic low. Its outer circulation has already swept across the entire semiconductor ocean!
Everyone, adjust the radar map to the TSMC sea area. Q3 revenue reached 1,490 billion New Taiwan Dollars, soaring 50.9% year-over-year; net profit hit 763.1 billion, jumping 68.7% year-over-year—this is not ordinary rainfall, but a full monsoon outbreak. Quarterly records have been rewritten, and all forecast models underestimated the actual situation. Having worked in this field for many years, my biggest fear is when reality exceeds the upper forecast bounds, as it means the old circulation models have failed.
The key lies in the moisture source. The 2-nanometer process contributes 8% of wafer revenue, and 79% of advanced nodes form the main cloud system of this downpour. In other words, this is not scattered convection but an organized mesoscale convective complex with concentrated energy and strong persistence. The real moisture conveyor belt is AI chip demand—it acts like a stable low-altitude jet stream, continuously pumping warm, moist air into the storm core, causing a system that should weaken in autumn to instead strengthen.
Now, looking at the downstream impact area. The US stock mapped target XMSTR is located in the downstream convergence zone of this jet stream, theoretically receiving the overflow of warm, moist air. But you must understand one thing: downstream precipitation never equals upstream intensity. Terrain, wind shear, and boundary layer conditions all rewrite the precipitation area. The current market sentiment index is in the greed zone, like an abnormally high sea surface temperature, which both provides enhancement potential and hides the risk of rapid intensification followed by sudden weakening. Credit spreads are widening, signaling disturbances in upper-level divergence—too rapid updrafts and excessive suction often mean compensatory subsidence later.
One more reminder: the advanced nodes on the foundry side are only one of the precipitation centers in the entire industry chain; storage, packaging, and equipment are independent rain belts. Focusing on only one rain gauge risks missing the flood risk of the entire region. The current typhoon path forecast maintains a strong typhoon level in the short term, but after 72 hours, it will enter a mid-level dry air zone, causing intensity bifurcation—whether it continues or rapidly fills depends on the stability of the AI capital expenditure moisture channel.
Our observation conclusion is clear: this is not an isolated thunderstorm but a large-scale circulation adjustment. The main channel of warm, moist air is tilting toward computing infrastructure. Any position arranged against this jet stream will be exposed to strong wind shear. #tsmcq3recordprofit"Inflation is burning hot, officials are slow to react, BTC takes a breather (｡･ω･｡)"
September PPI year-on-year is 6.3%, expected 5.3%; month-on-month 1.3%, expected 0.5%, core PPI also exceeded expectations. Along with the previous day's CPI year-on-year at 3.7% and core at 2.6%, both higher than expected, two consecutive data sets are saying: inflation hasn't cooled down (╯﹏╰).
According to the script, bets on rate hikes should soar. But on October 16, Waller did not predict future rates nor gave clues about an October rate hike; Daly and Goolsbee were equally cautious. So the market's bet on a 25bp hike in October dropped to about 15%. Hot data, cold officials, has become the biggest contradiction right now (￣▽￣).
BTC thus gained a short-term window. Pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields eased, risk assets caught a break. BTC is around 82,000, down slightly 0.14% in 24 hours, little movement. Support is at 81,500–82,000, breaking below looks to 80,000; resistance is at 83,500–84,500, hard to break without volume.
But don't rush to cheer. The 6.3% PPI is real cost pressure, energy and services both rising, the root of inflation remains. Whether to hike this year or when, disagreements persist, and the Fed won't pivot because of one speech. BTC's breather should be cherished (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC $ETH
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $BTC 80800 is the key level, not 81700
81700 is just the price given by users, the real key level is 80800. Today BTC/USD hit a low of 80809, futures hit a low of 80805, almost the same level. If it breaks again during the Asian session on Monday, stop-loss orders will be triggered, and 79k, 77k will come quickly. Conversely, 82500 with today's high at 82940 failing to hold indicates there is a double pressure of trapped positions and macro shorts above 83k. So don't ask "Can you buy at 81700?" Instead, ask "Can 80800 hold?" Holding means consolidation and recovery; failing means searching for a new bottom in the next range. Traders are currently placing orders roughly between 80800 and 82500, brushing both ends. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC spot ETF hasn't crashed, but it hasn't been bought frantically either
Many people ask: With such strong institutional holdings, why is BTC still at 81,000? Because ETFs are not unlimited buyers. Spot BTC ETFs have "net inflows but at a slow pace," not daily buying sprees. In today's market, institutions are more likely to place limit buy orders at 80k or 78k rather than chasing 81,700. Retail investors always think "BlackRock buying = immediate pump," but actually, they allocate annually and rebalance quarterly, not caring if you gain 3% or lose 3% today. So when looking at institutional holdings, don't just look at "whether they bought," but consider "net inflow metrics + holding costs." The US is now a net inflow country, which is a structural positive, not an intraday rocket. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after IPO will be revealed $BTC Brent crude oil at 110 dollars, surprisingly also suppressing BTC
Today Brent crude touched 110, does this have anything to do with BTC? Yes, and quite a bit. When oil prices soar, US inflation won't come down, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates, and it might even raise them by the end of the year. The market now fears the "energy inflation—wage inflation—service inflation" spiral returning. Although BTC is the "anti-inflation narrative," short-term trading is about liquidity, not stories. When liquidity tightens, BTC kneels first. So you see today BTC didn't soar with gold (gold 4180+), instead it hovered around 81700. Real inflation trading is here; funds go first to oil, gold, and short-term bonds, and only then to BTC. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5.12%, BTC's invisible ceiling
Today there's a data point more important than BTC's candlestick: the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 5.12%. With risk-free returns this high, who’s in a rush to use stablecoins to chase altcoins? The same logic applies to BTC—when "earning 5%+ passively" becomes easy, the opportunity cost of holding the zero-coupon asset BTC rises. So 81700 doesn’t look like it’s dropped much, but there’s heavy sell orders above: every rebound sees long-term holders reducing positions to switch into Treasuries. In the short term, BTC isn’t unable to rise, but to do so it must first wait for Treasury yields to fall back or for the US stock market risk premium to reopen. Don’t listen to calls to "rush to 100k" now; first watch if the 10Y yield can retreat below 5%. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC $ETH decoupling from the usual playbook today. Stocks got hit hard on AI-bubble fear (CoreWeave debt concerns dragged Nasdaq -2.1%), oil spiked toward $110 on Iran strike headlines, and CPI+PPI both came in hot this week.
Normally that combo wrecks risk assets. Instead BTC +2% to $81.7K, ETH +5%, trading more like gold (+0.6%) than Nasdaq. Still down on the week, but today’s reaction is worth watching flight-to-safety bid or just a bounce?$BTC BTC and the Nasdaq are now like conjoined twins
Stop believing in the “BTC independent market” narrative. Today the Nasdaq dropped 2.14%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for the eighth consecutive day, and BTC slid from 82940 to 80809. BTC’s beta is now more sensitive to the US tech stock market than to the halving narrative. The logic is simple: US stocks fall → risk appetite drops → deleveraging → BTC gets cut first. At the 81700 level, if Nasdaq futures remain weak on Monday, BTC will struggle to stand alone. Conversely, if Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia stop falling, BTC can then talk about 85k. Those trading BTC now need to watch CME Nasdaq futures, the 10-year US Treasury yield (today 10Y at 5.12%), and the US dollar index; relying solely on candlestick charts will lead to big losses. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC institutions are buying, retail investors are running, this scene is very 2024
Chainalysis released a striking report yesterday: the US will become a net inflow country for Bitcoin for the first time in 2026, with institutions continuously buying and retail investors overall selling. Spot BTC ETF players like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley have taken over the "retail investors cutting losses." BTC holding at 81,700 today without crashing is largely due to ETF/institutional orders supporting it. But note: institutional buying doesn't mean an immediate price surge; they are dollar-cost averaging, allocating, and waiting for macro turning points. Retail investors see 81,000 as cheaper than 100,000 and rush in, but when it dips to 80,800, they cut losses, and the chips just change hands. Now it's not "institutions pulling you on board," but "institutions collecting chips while you panic." #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $BTC The most critical news from the Fed today: Wash won't spoil the surprise
Tonight, the crypto circle is actually all watching the Fed's words closely. Fed Chair Wash said in Bangkok: no prediction of the October rate decision, and no advance guidance on the interest rate path for the year. To translate — don’t use the old Powell “forward guidance” trick on me, I’m keeping my options open. CME FedWatch now shows an 82%–87% probability of rates staying unchanged on October 27–28, with the chance of a rate hike dropping from 27% to below 15%. For BTC, this is short-term positive: no rate hike = liquidity expectations won’t collapse further. But don’t get too happy yet, Wash didn’t say “no rate hike,” just “no comment,” and the probability of a rate hike in December is still quite high. So BTC holding 81700 today doesn’t mean the bull market is back, it just means the hawks didn’t double down. #SpaceX’s first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises $BTC Why can't BTC rise around 81,000 today?
Looking at the market this morning, BTC futures CFD is at 81,396.5, spot index at 81,662, and the user's 81,700 is basically the real-time pivot. Why can't it rise? First, the US stock market crashed on Friday, Nasdaq down 2.14%, AI/semiconductors were hit, funds withdrew from high-risk assets; second, Brent crude surged to 109–110, energy inflation is back, the market starts worrying the Fed will tighten again by year-end; third, BTC's intraday high-low range is just over two thousand dollars, meaning "some are selling, some are buying, but no one is decisive." This kind of market is best suited for swing traders to rake in fees, not for retail investors chasing rallies or panicking. If 81,700 doesn't hold and 82,500 is not reached, I'll treat it as a rebound; if it breaks below 80,800, don't believe in a "solid bottom," look down to the 79k area. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Chips that have multiplied 170 times over nine years are starting to loosen up
ETH has been stuck at 2444 for two days, neither going up nor down. But there’s an on-chain signal more worth watching than the market — a batch of old addresses from 2017 are moving, with a cost basis of $14, now over 2400, more than 170 times increase. Held for nine years, recently starting to transfer to exchanges.
If it were you, would you run? I’m running anyway. Nine years of profit isn’t supported by faith, it’s about leaving when it’s time.
Retail investors now think 2400 is cheap because it’s indeed cheaper compared to 2800. But compared to 14? The cost basis of those old addresses is unimaginably low. Transferring to exchanges is not leaving you a souvenir.
There’s not much to say about the market. It bounced from 2322 to 2448 but couldn’t go higher, volume is shrinking day by day, and from 2480 to 2500 there are all trapped positions waiting to be freed. The futures market has 43.8 billion in open contracts hanging, once it breaks below 2316, the liquidation pressure of 1 billion long positions below will be obvious.
My short at 2671 is still in hand, no move. Near the current price, shorting seems okay to me. Stop loss above 2500, target first at 2316.
No advice, no hype, you decide for yourself. Old chips are running, volume is shrinking, and there’s a bunch of trapped positions above — with this structure, a rebound is either your chance to get on board or your chance to get off, you need to be clear in your mind.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#ETF and whale funds diverge, can BTC hold $80,000? Duge, buying MSTR is even riskier than buying Meme 😂😂🤣 This thing's cash flow is super easy to break; once something goes wrong, it can just issue more shares to let retail investors take the hit 😂😂
…………
$MSTR I definitely dug through its cash flow and financial statements before getting in. If you study its balance sheet carefully, it's extremely safe, with a very low debt ratio. Coupled with the early bull cycle, cash reserves are sufficient. But you're right, if it needs money, it can issue more shares. Cash flow isn't a problem; it can cover 3 years of interest payments and convertible bond buybacks. However, the shareholders have to bear the burden together. STRC will soon return to 100, financing channels are opening, and the flywheel is about to start again. But I don't want it to increase BTC holdings anymore.
Simply put, MicroStrategy borrowed money, some with interest-first-then-principal, some with principal and interest due at maturity or interest-free. It kept 3 years' worth of money for monthly payments and living expenses, and that money was also borrowed.
This is exactly the same play I did with off-exchange leverage in 2017, borrowing to pay off loans. The only difference is MicroStrategy uses stock as credit, while I used personal credit. Both methods are legal.Let's talk about the capital flow first: Who is under pressure among BTC, ETH, and SOL?
Don't just focus on the candlestick charts; capital flow is more honest. In the past 24 hours, $BTC spot net outflow was about $331 million, and contract net outflow was about $659 million; although there was some short-term inflow, selling pressure has not truly eased.
$ETH looks more like a "weak recovery." The 4-hour contract net inflow was about $123 million, but looking at 24 hours, contract net outflow was about $1.018 billion, and spot also saw an outflow of about $421 million. Whether the short-term rebound can hold still needs confirmation.
$SOL is relatively resistant to decline. In 24 hours, spot net inflow was about $9.8363 million, while contract net outflow was about $7.7293 million. Spot buying is a positive signal, but since contracts did not follow, it cannot be directly equated to confirmation of a rise.
Comparing the three, SOL's spot capital performance is more prominent; BTC and ETH still need to be watched to see if selling pressure can ease. Going forward, rather than guessing the bottom, it's better to closely watch whether spot capital continues to flow back. Will SOL's capital advantage continue, or will it ultimately depend on BTC's performance? Which one do you favor more?
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
#SpaceX's first full quarterly report after going public will be revealed
#ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold $80,000? 1. AI server DRAM demand explosion, industry volume and price both rising
AI server single-machine DRAM capacity is far higher than traditional servers, with the global server DRAM share continuously increasing. Changxin's G5 fifth-generation DRAM process is in mass production, launching 4F² high-density DDR5 RDIMM by the end of the year, entering the computing power storage track, with continuous product structure upgrades. The expected net profit for the first three quarters exceeds 130 billion, with strong performance realization; the chairman proposes a 1 to 2 billion buyback, with very few shares in circulation, making the buyback an obvious chip bottoming effect.
2. Long-term growth mainline of domestic substitution + market share increase
Currently, the global DRAM market is monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Changxin is the only domestic and the fourth largest global DRAM manufacturer, with a global bit share of about 11% in 2026. Institutions predict production capacity will expand to 500,000 wafers/month by 2028, with continuous share increase, having the potential to reshape the global storage landscape. Domestic supply chain security brings long-term premium.
3. Technological breakthroughs open cost reduction space
The G5 process improves wafer die output by 50%, and the 4F² architecture further compresses storage unit area, continuously reducing manufacturing cost per bit, enhancing competitiveness in future server and mobile LPDDR6 products.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus OKX withdrawals are not just about C2C. I've tried all 4 methods, so I'll tell you some blunt truths.
Many people ask "How to convert U to RMB?" but they're asking the wrong question. The real things to understand first are: where the money comes from and which card it goes into. The method is just a tool; these two questions determine whether you'll get into trouble.
① C2C/P2P — the most convenient, but also where most people get burned
Small amounts are okay, but the core reason for frozen cards isn't "how much you sold," it's the source of the other party's money. If the payer's name doesn't match the buyer, the transaction is instantly canceled. My approach: only small amounts, dedicated cards, and certified merchants with all four indicators green.
② OTC (Over The Counter) — for large amounts, but "years of experience" doesn't mean no checks
The bigger the amount, the more you need to verify qualifications and the source of funds. Contracts, chat records, and the other party's real-name info — don't miss any of these. When things go wrong, these are your full proof of innocence.
③ USDT→USD→Hong Kong card withdrawal — the most compliant and "heavy"
Using bank SWIFT transfers, stable arrival, clean chain. For large amounts, I mainly use this route. But let's be clear on the threshold: not everyone has a Hong Kong card; opening one requires either going to Hong Kong or a witness for account opening, and the review is getting stricter. Compliance has costs, and that cost is the "clean" pricing.
④ Transactions with acquaintances — smoothest communication, but also the most familiar pitfalls
"Knowing someone" and "knowing the source of every penny they have" are two different things. Money received from acquaintances can still be dirty money from their upstream. Control volume and frequency; don't skip processes just because it's "your own people."
My ranking: small amounts → C2C (with strict discipline); large amounts → compliant Hong Kong card channel; OTC and acquaintances → only for emergencies.
Honestly: when it comes to withdrawals, the easy routes are all working for risk. The method you find "convenient" is often the cost you haven't seen.
Which route do you mainly use? Share the pitfalls you've encountered in the comments.Recently there's an interesting divergence: crude oil has been strengthening due to tensions in the Middle East, while the crypto market just went through a big drop and is now slowly healing. Can BTC hold up this rebound? Let's break it down.
First, crude oil. Transportation risks around the Strait of Hormuz are rising, plus US crude inventories dropped by 8.6 million barrels last week, tightening supply suddenly and naturally supporting oil prices. But on the flip side, prices driven up by geopolitical conflict include a lot of emotional premium. Once the situation eases, that premium could quickly evaporate, so chasing high crude oil prices carries risks.
Now BTC. After breaking below 80,000 a couple of days ago, it was pulled back by buyers, showing there are indeed people willing to buy at this level. But don’t get too optimistic yet—CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations consecutively, and the inflation gray rhino is still looming. The Fed’s policy stance can shake the entire risk asset market at any time. Around 80,000 is a battleground for bulls and bears, and 83,000 is the hurdle for the rebound. Without a volume-backed breakout, anyone claiming a reversal is just fooling themselves.
ETH is even weaker than BTC. 2,400 is a key level; holding it keeps the hope alive. Whether it can reclaim 2,500 is the dividing line between strength and weakness. Plus, ETH spot ETFs have been seeing outflows recently, so whether the rebound has staying power remains to be seen over the next few days.
#Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rallies #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $BTC #SpaceX’s first full quarterly report post-IPO to be revealed 反弹别被表象骗了，资金面露疲态：
$BTC 24h现货+1.2亿/合约+9800万，但1h现货-5200万/合约-2.5亿，抛压来了。
$ETH 24h合约+3.8亿、现货-1.1亿，没现货配合=缺地基。
$SNDK 1h双边流出，4h转软。
我 SOXS 25x多（46.52→49.08，+137%）高倍最忌贪，25x下4%插针灭仓，已推保本。反弹不追高，盯1h卖压收敛，落袋为安#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高