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$AERO and $UNI, from the current price perspective, which one is more worth holding long-term???
Both are DEX tokens with real trading demand, but their investment logic differs: one has a relatively cheap valuation with greater growth potential, while the other has a more mature multi-chain ecosystem and an improving token value capture mechanism.
AERO: Betting on Base ecosystem growth
Aerodrome is already an important liquidity hub on Base. Its advantage lies in its relatively low valuation; if the Base ecosystem continues to expand, trading volume and protocol revenue have the potential to grow further.
However, the ve(3,3) model relies on lock-up and emission incentives. Currently, the token emission value exceeds protocol revenue. Whether it can reduce dependence on incentives and increase organic liquidity in the future is key to determining long-term performance. Aero's expansion plans are also worth continuous attention.
UNI: Betting on a mature ecosystem and value capture
Uniswap's advantage is its multi-chain layout and broader trading coverage, with significantly larger trading volume and fee scale. As fee capture and UNI burning mechanisms advance, protocol revenue growth has the opportunity to further translate into token demand.
UNI's current valuation multiple is also higher, and future performance requires sustained revenue growth to support it. New fee sources like Robinhood Chain and the development of the V4 ecosystem are variables worth tracking.$TIA The recent surge is driven by hype around new narrative expectations
[ID Viewpoint] The core reason for TIA's recent explosive rise is the modular track combined with the new AI Agent narrative, with funds flocking to speculate on expectations.
Celestia, as the leader in modular DA data layers, has recently released major news. First, Fibre technology achieved a super high throughput test of 3Tb/s, greatly raising market expectations for scalability; then the Eden testnet was launched, focusing on AI agent on-chain transactions, directly tapping into the hottest AI Agent narrative. TIA becomes the gas token for this new chain, with market expectations for continuous token consumption.
Combined with tokenomics proposal optimizations, there is an expectation of future fee burning, reducing sell pressure and attracting funds to position early. The market also has shorts being squeezed, further pushing the price up.
On the sentiment side, funds no longer simply look at current on-chain real transaction volume but bet on the long-term story of modular + AI on-chain interaction. This is a typical hype-driven market, but note: Eden is currently only a testnet, real deployment is still far off, and on-chain actual data has not surged correspondingly. Once the hype fades, profit-taking pressure could be significant. Short-term Class C is cheaper within one year, but I think if you can do regular investments, you won't sell within a year, and even if you invest regularly for a year, it won't be much money, and you won't do swing trading because once you sell, it's hard to buy back in a short time. Suppose you buy 1 million in Class A and 1 million in Class C, now buying the Southern Nasdaq 100 ETF. Let's make this assumption. Class A subscription fee is 0.12% (one-time), sales service fee 0%. Management fee 0.5%, custody fee 0.15%. Class C has no subscription fee, sales service fee 0.10% per year. Management fee 0.5%, custody fee 0.15%. It can be seen that Class A and C have the same management and custody fees; the difference lies in the sales service fee and the one-time subscription fee. Let's simulate (here we won't explain custody and management fees): Principal: Class A buys 1 million, Class C buys 1 million. Assumption 1: Both Class A and C hold for 1 full year. Class A cumulative sales-related fees: 1,200 yuan. Class C cumulative sales service fee: 1,000,000 × 0.10% = 1,000 yuan. It can be seen: Class C spends 200 yuan less than Class A. Assumption 2: Hold for 3 full years. Class A cumulative sales-related fees: 1,200 yuan. Class C cumulative sales service fee: 1,000,000 × 0.10% × 3 = 3,000 yuan. It can be seen: Class C spends 1,800 yuan more than Class A. Assumption 3: Hold for 5 full years. Class A: 1,200 yuan. Class C: 1,000,000 × 0.1% × 5 = 5,000 yuan. It can be seen: Class C spends 3,800 yuan more.#Under the collective bullish sentiment in the market, multiple capital signals show obvious divergence
On Saturday Beijing time, the market expectation split is clearly visible amid rainy weather. A large number of retail investors are collectively bullish on several mainstream assets, with target prices highly convergent; such a high degree of consensus often warrants caution. The views among large holders are also contradictory: the proportion of bearish opinions is rising, yet actual holdings continue to increase, showing a complete disconnect between rhetoric and real money operations.
Traditional ETF funds are also continuously exiting, with ETH seeing larger outflows and BTC showing signs of retreat as well. The market trend is weak, with the three major mainstream coins showing sluggish gains, and the leaderboard dominated by unfamiliar tokens. Short-term bearish forces hold the upper hand; in the past 24 hours, a large number of long positions have been liquidated, and the long liquidation phase is not over yet.
In the current environment, a bearish approach is favored, with corresponding price defense and stop-loss levels already planned. Retail investors tend to follow verbal sentiment, but the true market direction always follows capital flows. Like the tide, the sound of shouting does not indicate the direction of the waves. How long do you think this emotional peak will last?
$SOL $ETH $BTC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight The key to Netflix's quarterly earnings report is not whether revenue and profit can grow, but whether actual performance can exceed market expectations, and whether management can rebuild investor confidence in future growth Some of Meta's AI returns may be hidden in the daily ad operation savings of small businesses, and it may not be necessary to wait for the next sensational model release.
On October 6, Meta announced updates to its advertising tools: the AI business assistant is being tested for planning ads through conversations, adjusting audiences and budgets; other production tools have already been expanded for public use. The company deliberately separates testing features from available features and retains controls like preview and approval. Actions involving spending money cannot be assumed to be done by AI just because it can.
This business path makes me more willing to give it time. A small business may not need the smartest chatbot, but it might really need to spend a few fewer hours setting up ads and creating materials. After lowering the usage threshold, people who previously found advertising too troublesome might start trying it.
However, saving time for businesses and making more money for Meta still depends on actual ad delivery. Clients want to see how much business the ads bring, while Meta needs to see if these conveniences can turn into sustained budgets. A large number of users for a feature cannot directly prove additional profit.
Therefore, to evaluate AI investment, I will focus on the follow-up actions of businesses: after the first trial, whether they continue to use it and whether budgets remain. Advertisers spend their own money and are much more critical than applause at a launch event. If these less conspicuous tools can make them willing to pay again next month, they might carry more weight than another flashy demo.
#Meta's massive AI investment enters the return verification period The biggest pain point in the market these past two days is still insufficient liquidity. The weekly decline of BTC is not significant, but ETH, $SOL, and most altcoins are clearly weaker, indicating that funds have not massively returned to risk assets but are just switching back and forth between BTC and a few popular thematic coins.
Spot ETF funds are cautious, with net outflows in both BTC ETF and ETH ETF. Without new macro-level easing benefits, altcoins are unlikely to sustain an upward trend. First, observe whether $BTC can hold its price level, then see if ETH/BTC shows any signs of bottoming. Additionally, $ZK is about to unlock approximately 173 million tokens, accounting for 2.5% of the circulating supply, so its selling pressure should be closely monitored going forward.Earnings Season: Netflix Bets on Exceeding Expectations!
① Official Guidance's "Low Bar Effect"
Netflix's Q3 revenue and profit guidance given by management last quarter (Q2) was generally considered relatively conservative by Wall Street at the time. This proactive "lowering of market expectation thresholds" approach provided ample buffer space for delivering another impressive Q3 performance this time.
② Strong Ad-tier Packages and Upfront Sales
Netflix's upfront advertising commitments in North America for fiscal year 2026 have seen significant growth, targeting $3 billion in ad revenue for the full year.
The low-priced ad packages not only effectively prevent user cancellations but have also successfully penetrated a broader middle- and low-income customer base in North America and Europe. ARPPU (average revenue per user) remains robust after being supplemented by advertising.
③ Operating Leverage Drives Significant Margin Expansion
The same period last year (Q3 2025) was dragged down by one-time costs such as tax disputes in Brazil.
This quarter, with controlled costs of original series and improved operational efficiency, operating margin rose from 28.2% in the same period last year to over 33.2%, which will be the "hardcore reason" supporting EPS significantly surpassing Wall Street consensus. #NetflixGrowthMaySlow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus
On the eve of Netflix's earnings report
mass layoffs have already begun
I am not optimistic about an earnings beat
Layoffs are to protect financial data
If there is an earnings beat
layoffs would not be necessary
and the financial data would look good # Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Key reasons to be optimistic about Netflix (NFLX) earnings beating expectations
1. Advertising Tier packages are the most certain variable for exceeding expectations (core highlight)
2. Account sharing governance + price increases continue to drive up ARPU per subscriber
3. Strong content schedule, hit shows + live sports drive new subscribers and viewing time
4. Operating margin + free cash flow resilience, profitability elasticity is easily underestimated
5. Balanced growth across multiple global regions, emerging markets contribute incremental growth
6. Market expectations are not overly optimistic, leaving room for upside surprises #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises
Tesla's new Roadster flight demonstration feels more like a successful marketing show,
more hype than substance, short-term sentiment may fluctuate, not optimistic in the mid to long term.
Inverted flips, aerial rolls, flying over the fleet, Tesla's launch event had strong visual impact, but flight capability is limited to the invite-only Rocket version, officially marked as not approved for road use.
Performance/Thrust is the main pre-order model, mass production target is 2028, with multiple past delays, regulatory (FAA calls it a non-aircraft, NHTSA emphasizes it must meet motor vehicle standards), safety, insurance, and practical scenario obstacles abound, annual sales expected to be less than 2,000 units, impact on revenue and profit negligible.
Market focus is on the Q3 earnings report on the 21st:
Deliveries are better than some expectations, but profit margins continue to be under pressure, free cash flow is very likely to remain negative, valuation still high, any disappointing guidance could easily trigger a pullback. The Roadster neither improves competition and profit decline in the core auto business nor accelerates Robotaxi/Optimus realization.
More hype than substance, the positive effects of the launch event have basically been fully priced in, short-term sentiment may fluctuate, mid to long-term fundamentals are hard to support.
Regarding stock price,
$TSLA currently around $354, short-term support at 349-352, break below targets around 345; resistance at 356-359 and above 365. $xTSLA CRYPTO MARKET UPDATE: RECOVERY FACES RESISTANCE
The crypto market remains under pressure as inflation concerns and institutional outflows weigh on investor confidence.
BTC: ~$81.5K
ETH: ~$2.42K
Total Market Cap: ~$2.84T
ETF Flows: $152M in combined BTC and ETH outflows
Market Outlook: Bitcoin is holding above $80K, but sustained recovery requires stronger buying pressure and improved ETF flows.
$BTC $ETH
#TeslaRoadsterUnveiled Trump exempted sanctions on Russia, oil prices may peak — this is a bullish factor for BTC that has been overlooked
Many people missed the news last night: Trump exempted parts of Lindsey Graham's sanctions on Russia and Iran Act, including a 500% tariff on Russian goods exported to the US and a 100% tariff on energy-related countries. It’s not a repeal, but a suspension of implementation, sending a clear signal — geopolitical tensions are easing.
Why is this important? Because the core driver of current inflation is oil prices. Brent is at $110, WTI broke $101, September PPI is 6.3%, CPI is 3.7%, with energy contributing the most. If oil prices fall from 110 back to 90, inflation pressure will significantly ease, giving the Federal Reserve reason to pause rate hikes on October 27.
Fed pauses rate hikes → liquidity expectations shift → BTC reacts first. The market is focused on CPI, but oil prices are the leading indicator.
Uncertainty: the exemption is a suspension, not a repeal, and the Middle East situation remains. But at least Trump has sent a signal of easing, more dovish than market expectations.
Pay attention to oil prices, more timely than CPI. If it falls below 100, BTC is expected to test 83,000-84,000. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
After reviewing major prediction markets, I think there is an opportunity for information arbitrage and delayed data updates here.
Currently, the baseline in prediction markets is $0.84 per share, which is actually the earnings guidance Netflix gave in July. However!! The latest earnings guidance from Netflix has been lowered to $0.82~
Based on past experience, Netflix's earnings guidance is usually quite accurate, and in most cases, the actual reported EPS is slightly higher than the guidance.
If the rule strictly requires greater than $0.84, the actual reported EPS needs to be ≥ $0.85 to count as Yes, about 3.7% higher than the guidance.
The prediction essentially asks whether Netflix can beat its own guidance by at least $0.03—reversing the implied shares from the guidance, net profit needs to be about $3.56B, roughly $100M (+3%) more than the guidance, meaning operating margin would rise from 33.2% to about 34.2%, or be made up through tax rate/forex/repurchases.
Conclusion: Baseline expectation is $0.83–0.84, with less than a 50% chance of exceeding $0.84. On earnings day, watch two points: whether operating margin exceeds 34%, and whether there are any one-time layoff costs; also confirm the settlement criteria.
Based on this calculation, I will go all in on NO. Traders don't deceive traders, three abnormal signals in this round of adjustment:
▪️ BTC's three tests of 81000 support all held
Glassnode's real market average is 78000, US stock ETF holding cost is 81500 and close to the current price, institutions are also trapped.
Retail investors panic sell, whales absorbed 15,000 BTC in 72h, IBIT had a net inflow of 16.78 million yesterday, there is supporting capital under the selling pressure.
▪️ ETH ETF has had outflows for 10 consecutive days, whales increased holdings by 166,000 ETH (worth 400 million USD) in the opposite direction, on 10.13 ETF returned to a net inflow of 24.84 million. When the market is overwhelmingly bearish, someone quietly adds positions; this is where the difference in perception lies.
▪️ SOL price consolidates sideways, on-chain activity explodes
Active addresses reached 1.88 million, a 13-month high, stablecoin supply broke 15 billion. The cup-and-handle pattern remains, only breaking and holding above 240 will start the breakout.
Personal thoughts: Panic looks at data, FOMO looks at candlesticks
BTC holds the base position | ETH waits for ETF positive signal | SOL don’t hold heavy positions to the death
CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will interest rate hikes resume this year?
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises 🌍 Uncle Weekly Report｜10.12—10.16 This week, the global market experienced a sharp cooling in risk appetite. U.S. inflation data heated up again, crude oil prices intraday approached and touched the $110 per barrel mark, and the market reassessed inflation stickiness, interest rate paths, and tech stock valuations. High-valuation assets came under pressure, global tech stocks saw a significant pullback, and market focus shifted from growth expectations to cost pressures and valuation reappraisals. 1. Macro: Inflation pressure rises again The U.S. September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month; PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year. Producer prices increased significantly, and rising energy costs further intensified inflation pressure. The market worries that if energy prices continue to rise, the process of inflation easing may be disrupted, and the Federal Reserve's policy space will be constrained. 2. Global Tech Stocks: Valuation under pressure U.S. tech stocks weakened significantly this week. The Nasdaq index fell about 4.5% for the week, with the semiconductor sector under considerable pressure. This is not just a simple sentiment correction. Rising oil prices push up cost expectations, uncertainty in interest rate paths suppresses high-valuation assets, and the previously accumulated gains make tech stocks more vulnerable to changes in risk appetite. 3. Asian Markets: Increased volatility The South Korean Composite Index fell 14.46% this week, marking one of the worst single-week performances since 2008. Although it rebounded on Friday, it did not reverse the weekly decline. The Japanese stock market rebounded on Friday, but the Asian market overall still faces external volatility and energy美国 PPI 同比冲到 6.3%。通胀没有死在生产端，反而在这一环重新加速。
生产者价格是消费者价格的上游。它涨成这样，意味着接下来几个月 CPI 想顺利回落会很难。更麻烦的是，油价今天刚摸到 110 美元——霍尔木兹那边一紧张，运费、能源、化工全跟着抬，成本压力还在往上叠。
市场的定价却完全是另一套：10 月加息概率只给到 17%，10 年期美债收益率 5.12%。一边是重新点火的上游通胀，一边是笃定「没事了」的利率预期。这两个中间，迟早有一个要让步。
加密夹在中间最难受。BTC 回到 81,500 附近，昨天现货 ETF 里 BTC 净流出 8,238 万美元、ETH 净流出 6,968 万美元。实际利率高企、资金又在撤，估值只能往下压。
我的判断：6.3% 这个数字如果下个月还在往上走，17% 的加息概率就是错的，届时杀的是所有长久期资产，加密跑不掉。
你站哪边：信「通胀见顶、可以松口气」，还是觉得这只是二次抬头的前奏？
#美国ppi同比升至6.3% #Anthropic plans to raise $60 billion, IPO faces a test Capital Watch: The rebound illusion behind nearly 80,000 liquidations in the market
Nearly 80,000 liquidations across the entire market is a data point worth noting. The market seems to be recovering, but splitting mainstream coin capital flows shows that market enthusiasm and real incremental funds are not synchronized. BTC spot continues to flow out, institutional ETF buying has clearly cooled; ETH short-term contract data looks strong, but spot has seen continuous outflows for several days. Among the three, only SOL spot has some support, but its contract funds are continuously withdrawing, and spot ETFs are also seeing capital flight.
At the macro level, constraints remain, rate hike expectations have not been fully eliminated, regulatory bills are stalled, and rising oil prices suppress risk assets. The current market relies more on sentiment support, representing range-bound oscillation rather than a trend reversal.
Key observation: Waiting for BTC and ETH spot funds to turn positive, and for SOL spot support to hold. Once there is a volume breakout accompanied by sustained spot capital inflows, the logic of this capital watch will be invalidated. Would you draw a different conclusion from other capital dimensions?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
这次挺有意思的，9月的CPI、PPI双双超预期，算是实打实的通胀反弹了。
能明显感觉到，通胀压根没彻底躺平，黏性比大家想象的要强不少，油价、各项细分数据都在悄悄抬温。
很多人看完数据就慌了，纠结美联储会不会接着猛加息。
目前市场共识也很统一：10月基本稳按兵不动，加息概率特别低，基本可以直接忽略。
虽然通胀超预期给了鹰派一点底气，但就业数据偏弱、整体经济也偏温和，美联储没必要激进打压市场。
不过也不是完全没变数…
年内最后一次悬念，基本就锁在12月了🤏
双通胀超预期，确实小幅抬升了12月加息的可能性，但也只是概率博弈，不是板上钉钉的事。 CPI干到3.7%，核心2.6%，全超预期。按说该尿一地，结果10月加息概率反而干到13%了，沃什在IMF嘴上硬手一摊，市场直接当他放屁。布油摸110，滞胀这碗夹生饭，咽不下也吐不出。
链上贝莱德在Coinbase Prime进进出出，刚提了1.27亿的BTC和ETH，转头又有大额存入的记录，机构自己都在倒手，别看见“巨鲸买入”就颅内高潮。
过去24小时全网3.33亿U被抬走，多单占2.22亿，追多的又交了一波学费。BTC 8.15万晃着，ETF昨天净流出8239万，贝莱德自己跑了7178万。8万有承接，但反弹没量，站不稳8.3万之前，山寨看都别看。
一句话：通胀爆表但没人信美联储敢动，巨鲸在倒仓，多军在挨打，BTC半死不活。手揣兜里，等它自己选方向。
$BTC $ETH $ZEC ##特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 81700美元的BTC，你还拿得住吗？
距离ATH跌了35%，ETF连续流出，全网都在喊“牛市结束了”——但就在刚刚，价格死死卡在81700，恰好是机构的ETF成本线。这到底是最后的逃命机会，还是机构在护盘？
先看表面：利空不断，但价格没崩。
24小时微跌，波动80800-82800，距2025年10月ATH 12.6万已回调35%。ETF 10月净流出5-6亿美元，IBIT、FBTC领跌。宏观上9月CPI 3.7%偏热，10年期国债5.2%高位，FOMC 10月27-28日大概率暂停但12月加息概率仍高。K线告诉你：价格卡在80800-81000支撑上方，RSI中性偏弱，没超卖——所有指标都在喊一句话：区间震荡，等方向。
利空这么多，BTC为什么没跌破8万？
第一件事：81700不是普通价格，这是机构的“生死线”
Glassnode数据：BTC的ETF成本基约81500美元，True Market Mean（真实市场均价）约7.8万美元。
现在价格81700，刚好站在ETF成本线上方200美元。
所有通过ETF买入的机构，平均成本81500。
价格再跌200刀，全体ETF持有者集体浮亏。
浮亏会引发什么？赎回。赎回会引发什么？砸盘。砸盘会引发什么？你猜。
所以81700不是技术位，是心理防线。
多头在死守，因为一旦失守，下面就是80000心理关，再下面78000是True Market Mean——那是“最后的信仰底”。
市场从来不会在所有人准备好时见底，它总在最难受的位置反复摩擦，直到你交出筹码。
第二件事：上方全是“尸山血海”，每涨一步都是解套
Glassnode数据：
6-12个月买家成本基约8.8万美元
1-2年买家成本基接近10万美元
近期买盘成本更高，形成密集供给墙
这意味着什么？
价格从81700往上涨，83500有近期套牢盘，85000-86000是强供给墙，88000是半年买家的解套线，100000是两年老韭菜的“回本线”。
每涨一格，都有人喊“终于回本了，快跑”。
这就是为什么BTC在8万区间反复摩擦——上面的人想解套，下面的人想抄底，中间的人在熬。
牛市不是没有套牢盘，而是套牢盘被一波波买盘吃掉。现在的问题是：买盘够不够？
第三件事：ETF资金流，才是2026年BTC真正的“庄”
以前看链上、看矿工、看巨鲸。
现在？看ETF。
10月ETF净流出5-6亿美元，最近几天IBIT、FBTC贡献主要流出。9月还是强劲流入，现在“快速资金”在获利减仓。
ETF资金流已经取代链上数据，成为BTC定价的核心。
贝莱德一家的申购赎回，比10个巨鲸地址更能决定短期方向。
第四件事：技术面是“下沿测试”，不是“趋势反转”
支撑： 80800-81000（多次测试）→ 80000-80400（心理+技术）→ 79800-78000（True Market Mean）
阻力： 82200-82500（短期）→ 83500-84000（近期高点）→ 85000-86000（供给墙）
结构上：从8.6万回落后形成下降/震荡结构，8万附近有买盘介入但反弹即承压。均线贴近50日，RSI中性偏弱。
结论：区间震荡+下沿测试，不是明确趋势。
翻译成人话：
现在是“熬”的阶段，不是“冲”的阶段。
追多容易被套，追空容易被轧，高抛低吸才是活路。
多空对决，你自己看
一边是：
价格站在ETF成本基81500上方，机构在护盘
True Market Mean 7.8万是强支撑，未出现恐慌抛售
长期持有者稳定，新资本仍在进入
财政扩张+货币总量增长，硬货币叙事有底
一边是：
ETF连续流出5-6亿美元，短期压力真实
上方8.8万-10万全是套牢盘，涨一步一堆卖压
9月CPI 3.7%偏热，10年期5.2%，风险偏好被压
FOMC 10月27-28日，12月加息概率仍高
操作策略
短线选手：
81700附近不追多。等80800-81000企稳做多，目标82200-83000，止损80400。跌破80000且日线收弱，减仓或轻仓看78500。资金费率温和正值，但ETF流出时别重仓追高。
中线玩家：
观望或轻仓。关键看FOMC结果+ETF资金是否转正。站稳83000-84000且ETF流入回暖，加多看向86000+；失守80000且宏观偏鹰，等78000附近再找底部信号。
长线信仰者：
78000-80000区间分批定投。2026年是“高位震荡+消化”年，不是新牛市主升，也不是深熊。周期仍有空间，但耐心比勇气更值钱。
BTC现在就像2023年的黄金——
所有人说“涨太多了，要崩”，结果央行和机构在悄悄买。
ETF成本线81500，就是当年的“央行买入价”。
你在81700割肉，机构在81500补仓。区别不是智商，是耐心。
80000跌破那天，你会发现——
要么是最后的上车机会，要么是熊市的第一声钟响。
$BTC $ETH $ZEC AI falls, why doesn't $BTC follow?
The conventional thinking is that when AI falls, BTC will be dragged down as well. Looking at the daily chart, they often rise and fall together. But over a longer period, it's actually the opposite:
May-June | AI is strongest → BTC is worst, pure bloodsucking
June-July | AI peaks and falls → BTC doesn't drop, starts to form a bottom
August-September | BTC directly rebounds strongly
These past two days | AI falls again, but BTC stubbornly refuses to drop from the high level
The logic is simple: there's only so much money in the risk market. When AI expectations are maxed out and the odds worsen, money flows to places with better cost performance—not that AI falling drags BTC down, but that BTC can only rise when AI can't move up anymore.
When AI stabilizes and sentiment steadies, BTC is very likely to launch a strong attack.
Gold follows the same script: from December to February when gold surged the most, BTC was at its worst; after gold's cliff-like drop, BTC instead bottomed and rebounded.
The last sentence is the most critical: when everyone is shouting "flee crypto, embrace XXX," chances are going out means you're about to be slaughtered like a pig.UNI Bull Market Price Outlook: Breaking Historical Highs Is Difficult, but a Return to $20 Is Expected
Regarding whether UNI can break the historical high of $45 in this bull market, based on the current fundamentals and protocol revenue data, the answer may not be optimistic. However, if the market cycle and valuation logic are viewed rationally, UNI breaking the previous bull market high of $20 remains a realistic expectation.
Looking back at 2021, UNI's price once surged to $45, a figure largely driven by the then-frenzied market sentiment and bull market premium. At that time, capital often chased "tracks" and "narratives" rather than solid protocol revenue or token value capture ability. When the tide receded and the market re-evaluated projects based on income, valuation, and actual utility, many DeFi tokens experienced value reversion, and UNI was no exception. The high point that year essentially overextended growth expectations for several years to come.
This phenomenon is not unique to UNI. Many established DeFi protocols, including $AAVE, MakerDAO, and Compound, have experienced similar "sentiment premium—value reversion" cycles. The current market is more rational; investors no longer blindly chase concepts but focus on sustainable protocol revenue, the effectiveness of governance mechanisms, and the token's real role in the economic model.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises 2.45 million ONDO tokens were withdrawn, revealing the holdings of a single address. Are you seeing an increase in position, or averaging down after being trapped? On-chain data just recorded: a certain whale withdrew 2.455 million ONDO from an exchange 12 hours ago, valued at approximately $1.144 million, with an average withdrawal price of $0.4662 per token. The same address also holds three large positions: 1.014 million UNI at an average price of $8.79, currently at an unrealized loss of about $1.55 million; 12,400 LTC at an average price of $67.86, with an unrealized loss of about $100,000; combined with ONDO, the total on-chain holdings amount to approximately $9.22 million. The numbers are clear, but what interests me more is the structure—both UNI and LTC are underwater, while ONDO is the only newly added position. There are several layers of information worth unpacking in this set of actions. First, withdrawing tokens instead of leaving them on the exchange usually indicates no short-term intention to sell; the tokens move from a tradable state to a "locked" state, which marginally reduces selling pressure on the market. Second, the increase in position happens against the backdrop of two unrealized losses, suggesting this is not a reckless chase of hype but rather an active portfolio restructuring to balance the book pressure of old positions with new assets. Third, ONDO is one of the easiest RWA (Real World Asset) narratives to be targeted by institutional funds; a whale adding to this position indicates a bet not on a one-day rebound but on relative strength at the sector level. The transmission path is also easy to infer. If ONDO can hold steady around 0.46, RWA-related assets will first gain emotional premium, DeFi blue chips like UNI will benefit, and risk appetite in the ETH ecosystem will slightly recover; but converselyPPI keeps surging, macro headwinds return, don’t rush to catch the falling knife!
US September PPI soared 6.3% year-over-year, +1.3% month-over-month, core MoM +0.7%, completely crushing expectations. Inflation pressure has spread from energy to services and midstream sectors, with "higher for longer" looming again. Crypto, as a zero-coupon, pure liquidity asset, is the first to have liquidity drained.
On the coin front, straight talk:
• BTC’s rebound structure is facing breakdown; the key is not guessing the bottom but whether 82000/80800 can hold and if buying can replenish.
• ETH has no fundamental narrative + macro headwinds; its rebound is the weakest and the spikes the harshest—don’t get carried away just because it’s rising.
• $SOL’s high elasticity = high fragility; when risk appetite drops, it falls hardest. We must wait for BTC to stabilize before talking about a rebound.
One operational rule: don’t bottom-fish or chase shorts; let the price write the answer first.
CPI + PPI keep pressuring; the true bottom isn’t guessed—price holds + thick buy orders returning + BTC not breaking key levels, all three must light up simultaneously to count.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies 美国PPI同比6.3%，生产端通胀再度加速！
作为CPI上游先行指标，PPI走高，后续CPI回落阻力大增。叠加油价触及110美元，霍尔木兹地缘扰动，能源与产业链成本继续抬升。
市场定价却相当淡定：10月加息预期仅17%，10年期美债收益率5.12%。
上游通胀回暖 VS 市场乐观利率预期，矛盾持续累积，终将一方修正。
加密承压明显，BTC回落81500。昨日BTC现货ETF净流出8238万，ETH ETF净流出6968万。高实际利率+资金撤离，持续压制估值。
若下月PPI继续上行，17%的加息概率将被证伪，所有长久期资产迎来杀估值，加密无法避险。#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $DOGE
投票：你信通胀见顶，还是二次通胀来袭？这一次韩股反弹像漏水船舀出一瓢水，船底洞还在。我认为别把技术修复当外资回头，币圈同理。
KOSPI涨2.05%收5668，但外资本周净卖三星、海力士8.86万亿韩元，今年撤超1300亿美元。回购快结束，谁接？
$BTC 81,478，ETF近7日流出1.46亿，资金费率转负。没摔下去，不等于站起来。
$ETH 2,400，ETF近7日流出2.5亿，比BTC还狠，自己脚下也冒水。
$ZEC 1,150附近，从1,650回撤30%，但灰度ETF破10亿，Winklevoss递ETF申请，NU7倒计时。钱没走，换了口袋。我500空单还扛着。
我认为信号是：外资连续三天净买入、BTC站稳8.3万且ETF放量。反弹是减仓，不是上头。
#韩股修复反弹，外资卖压能否缓解？
@你的爱播Misa @bilibili交易姬 @北伐軍一一軍需部长——B哥 @中确幸（Bch是世界上最有价值的币） **牛市不是所有币一起涨，而是资金轮着炒 **
每次牛市，都不是普涨，而是板块轮动。
BTC、ETH 先领涨，山寨跟涨；等 BTC 涨到一定阶段横盘，资金就会从大币里撤出来，去找位置低、筹码轻的小币种。因为资金量有限，不可能所有币同时拉，所以往往是几个币先动，涨完一波后资金再撤出，流向下一个板块。
牛市启动时，先涨的板块可能涨三五倍；涨不动后，资金再切到还没启动的币种。那些前期没涨的，后面反而可能走出几十倍甚至更高的涨幅，很多人根本想象不到。
没经历过的人最容易犯一个错：看见哪个涨得猛，就觉得它还能涨，于是卖掉手里还没动的币去追。结果刚追进去，资金已经轮走了，原来拿的币反而开始启动。
牛市结束后才发现，自己买哪个哪个跌，卖哪个哪个涨，不是币不行，是节奏没踩对。
真正难的不是选币，而是拿住自己的周期，别被别人的涨幅带节奏。仓位别太重，方向对了，耐心比追涨
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $UNI
When UNI falls back, how should the protocol usage and token returns be broken down?
Spot price dropped about 2.62% in 24 hours, ranging between 7.093 and 7.553, with the price positioned at about 43% within this range.
Decentralized trading demand can support protocol activity, but the allocation of fees and governance mechanisms determine how value is passed on to token holders. The importance of the protocol does not constitute a price bottom, especially when the overall market is contracting risk exposure.
Only if the upper boundary is broken through and holds can price recovery be supported; if the lower boundary is breached, it should first be acknowledged that support is weakening. If expectations for the fee mechanism are not fulfilled for a long time, valuation premiums may also decline.Tesla Earnings Preview: Market Unconvinced, Bets Fall Short of Expectations!
Although Tesla's Q3 deliveries (486,500 vehicles) and energy storage deployments (13.7 GWh) both performed impressively, and the surface financial data (revenue and EPS) are very likely to beat consensus, the real battleground lies in the core automotive gross margin.
To boost deliveries, Tesla has offered extremely low loan rates and significant discounts globally, which will directly suppress automotive gross margins (excluding regulatory credits). If the gross margin falls below 15.0%, the support from high valuation will be shaken. Even if financial metrics exceed expectations on both fronts, the stock price still faces the risk of a pullback after an initial surge. Short-term outlook is cautiously bearish, closely watching gross margin and FSD commercialization guidance. #TeslaDeliveriesExceedExpectationsProfitRecoveryBecomesFocus #Macro liquidity expectation fluctuations will simultaneously drive up the leverage speculation heat in crypto derivatives.
This correlation group only represents a directional preference in capital flow and does not constitute direct causality. The total size of large long-short combined positions reaches 58.82 million USD, with BTC high-leverage short positions, ETH long positions, and HYPE short positions arranged simultaneously, showing a combined unrealized loss of 3.72 million USD on the books, but offset by 1.09 million USD accumulated from funding fees, using contract funding fee income to hedge the unrealized losses.
When US Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthen, risk assets often come under pressure, which correlates with the BTC high-leverage short position layout. This short position carries extremely high liquidation risk, where even a slight adverse move can trigger liquidation. Meanwhile, the ETH long position bets on the resilience of risk assets and also carries leverage liquidation constraints; both are highly sensitive to macro liquidity turning points.
HYPE's funding fee income becomes the main buffer source for this set of positions. This asset's slight decline causes longs to continuously pay funding fees, creating a cash flow similar to rent. Once macro expectations quickly reverse and the funding rate pattern flips, this strategy relying on funding fees to bear unrealized losses will be difficult to sustain.
Leverage positions are like heavy weights hanging on a thin thread.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC Macro Pressure and Recent Catalysts
Interest Rate Expectations: CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike on October 28 has risen to 24.9%, up from just 17.7% a week ago.
Inflation Data: US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, core CPI rose 2.6%, both slightly above expectations.
US Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury yield is near the highest level since 2007, putting pressure on risk assets.
$SNDK ⚠️ Core Risks
· Valuation Overstretch Concerns: Although the forward P/E ratio is only about 6.5x, the stock price has surged over 860% in one year, making the market extremely sensitive to whether it can continue to outperform expectations.
· Competitive Pressure: Progress by China Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) in the DRAM sector has raised market concerns about the long-term pricing power of Asian memory manufacturers, indirectly suppressing sector sentiment.
· Buyback Support: The board has approved a $14 billion buyback plan with ample remaining authorization, which may provide some buffer if the stock price falls.
Key Date: October 29 will see the release of the new quarterly earnings report, with the market focusing on verifying whether AI storage demand continues.
$MUBARAK
Altcoins have nothing much to say; when the mainstream rises, it rises! When the mainstream falls, it crashes???Found the reason. After checking, it’s still COREWEAVE’s collapse that ignited the market’s concerns about growth under the AI cyclical financing model.
But then I looked at the history of tech bubble peaks; almost all peaks weren’t due to performance issues. In fact, many post-peak earnings reports even showed accelerated growth. The main cause of the decline was actually a liquidity crisis triggered by the stance of major players.
In summary, this also provides an important reference indicator for trading: a performance collapse ≠ a peak; it’s the stance of major players after the frenzy that matters.The price fluctuations of Bitcoin directly affect how investors evaluate Strategy's large BTC holdings. When Bitcoin rises, the company's holdings can support reported earnings. When Bitcoin falls, the same holdings may increase financial pressure and volatility. However, reported Bitcoin gains are not equivalent to the cash flow generated by the underlying business. The key issue is how Strategy's Bitcoin holdings impact its financial condition, risk, and its ability to sustain its strategy over the long term. #StrategyQ3BTCGains INSIGHT: $BTC remains too small relative to the global asset landscape.
Bitcoin currently accounts for only about 0.2% of total global assets.
This figure highlights a paradox: while there is extensive discussion surrounding Bitcoin in the market, the actual capital allocated to it remains very limited.
Should this share change, the resulting impact on its price could be far greater than currently perceived.# Deutsche Bank plans to custody BTC and ETH, accelerating digital asset business
ETH
Current price about $2,451.4, RSI 58.3; short-term MACD histogram positive at 2.638, but daily chart still suppressed by MA30/MA200/EMA200, another data source shows RSI only 41.
Bollinger upper band at $2,500.65 leaves about 2% room, breakout requires additional volume; funding rate +0.0071%, longs mildly crowded.
The triple resonance of "RSI 65 + golden cross + near upper band" does not exist at the daily level.
BitMine holds about 6.016 million ETH (about 4.9%), only about 100,000 ETH away from the 5% hard cap, Tom Lee clearly states "stop buying at 5%".
· POAP founder's transfer to Gemini is a reduction: on 10/14 transferred 10,000 ETH (about $25.05 million), previously transferred about 4,000 ETH.
ETF
Net inflow on 10/13 about 700–800 million, still net outflow in the past 30 days. This is "stanching the bleeding," not "renewed enthusiasm for allocation."
Social and upgrades
"Optimism index 2.05" is actually the ratio of bullish to bearish comments, the upper 2,530 level is likely to face resistance for the first time; the lower 2,415 level shows structural weakening. Current characterization: weak recovery within a bullish structure, close to the critical point for chasing longs, not a trend start. 🗳️ THE MARKET CAST A DIFFERENT VOTE.
Nearly 99.9% of early Starknet voting power backed researching an independent, quantum-resistant Layer 1.
Yet $STRK is down roughly 15% in 24 hours, trading near $0.071 on OKX.
Here’s the distinction: the vote authorizes research, NOT migration.
After a spectacular monthly rally, traders are confronting the gap between an ambitious roadmap and an approved upgrade.
The poll closes October 22.
#STRK #CryptoTreasuryDivides South Korean stocks flash crash nearly 8%, global tech stocks feel the chill ️
South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 9% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker, and finally closed down about 7.6%. Samsung Electronics fell 9.5%, SK Hynix dropped 11%, foreign capital continued to withdraw, and buyback support is weakening.
This is not just a problem for South Korea: Overnight, the Nasdaq fell 2.15%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.83%, marking the 8th consecutive trading day of decline, the longest losing streak since 2006. The Nikkei, TSMC, and ASML are also under pressure, as the global AI hardware chain cools down simultaneously.
CPI exceeding expectations is just the trigger; the deeper conflict lies in the AI ledger. TSMC's profits are impressive, ASML's demand remains strong, but capital is no longer paying just for the story. Rising financing costs and intensified memory competition have the market questioning: When will massive capital expenditures turn into real returns?
South Korean memory is a global tech barometer; when it falls, risk assets generally come under pressure. BTC also struggles to stand alone in the short term—risk appetite contracts, and capital favors safe havens. BTC is tugging around 82,000, with 81,500–82,000 as short-term support; if broken, watch for 80,000 or even 78,000 below.
But from another perspective, this adjustment is a re-pricing of AI input-output ratios. If capital withdraws from overvalued hardware, some may flow into non-sovereign hard assets like BTC, potentially bringing structural opportunities.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises $BTC is now once again being discussed across the entire network about quantum computers breaking the Bitcoin network. Historically, Bitcoin has "died" multiple times.
✅2011: 94% retracement, early exchange hacker crisis
✅2013-2014: 87% retracement, Mt.Gox bankruptcy
✅2017-2018: 84% retracement, ICO bubble burst
✅2021-2022: 77% retracement, Federal Reserve rate hikes + FTX collapse
✅2020 3/12: Black swan in a bull market, 52% halving in two days, liquidity crash $ETH $ZEC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $HYPE
衍生品市场热闹，HYPE为什么仍会下跌？
现货24小时下跌约2.82%，区间78.476—82.529，价格位于区间约36%的位置。
交易波动可能提高平台使用，却不保证代币同步上涨。收入持续性、竞争以及价值传导规则都会影响定价，不能把交易者活跃直接等同于代币买盘。
若上沿收复且相对BTC改善，才重新评价强度；若下沿失守，说明行业热度尚不足以抵消卖压。没有收入证据时，不把波动放大自动当成利好。#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Conclusion first: The funding rate hitting the cap is a danger signal — the price is falling, but long leverage is maxed out. BTC dropped from $82,430 to a low of $80,809 yesterday, closing at $81,590, down -0.97% for the day, with a trading volume of $471 million. This drop isn't deep, but one detail stands out: its funding rate hit the +0.01% upper limit. Looking at the structure: Spot price is $81,590, perpetual contracts are aligned with no de-peg. Open interest is about $2.487 billion; funding rate is +0.01% (at the cap). The price is falling, but the funding rate is maxed out, which is a typical "long leverage crowding" — longs are not retreating but actually increasing leverage. Under this structure, if the price continues to fall, these highly leveraged longs will be forcibly liquidated, causing a chain reaction of declines. This is the hidden risk to watch out for today. Looking at the position: currently $81,602, breaking below the 7-day moving average ($82,439), and approaching the 60-day moving average ($80,618). The 14-day high is $86,994, and the 14-day low is $79,775. In other words, the $79,775-$80.8K range is the support zone it repeatedly tests — after breaking below yesterday and pulling back, it fell back near this area again today. Market cap is $1.64 trillion, ranked number 1. On-chain MVRV Z-Score remains in a neutral to slightly low zone, not overvalued at the top, providing mid-term support. But the short-term funding rate at the cap is a clear short-term risk. Short-term outlook? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35In the first two trading days of next week, I estimate that the rebound of US stock MSTR will still be easily pushed back by selling pressure. The new MSCI rules have been approved, but it is not yet finalized whether Strategy will be removed from the index. Friday's drop was severe enough, but the potential index sell-off is still uncertain. On Thursday, it rebounded from the previous day's close of $143.24 to $151.29, then dropped 9.56% on Friday, closing at 136.83, with trading volume more than 40% higher than Thursday. Thursday's rebound did not hold, and Friday's close was even lower than Wednesday's. On the same day, QQQ also fell about 2.5%, and the overall market decline was also a pressure factor, so the entire decline of MSTR cannot be attributed solely to the new rules. MSCI's August consultation document used May data for simulation, and Strategy was already on the proposed removal list at that time. The new rules will first look at operating assets, then use financial indicators such as cash flow and financing dependence to screen companies. The rules have been approved, but the final inclusion or exclusion of Strategy still depends on the official list. The final affected list will be announced on November 11, and adjustments will take effect after the US market closes on November 30. If Strategy is removed, funds tracking the related index will need to sell stocks, and other capital may also trade this expectation in advance. These sell-offs are not yet confirmed, and when and how much to sell cannot be predetermined. After nearly a 10% drop, a short-term rebound would not surprise me. If it can stabilize around $151 next week and recover this drop, I would have to revise my judgment that the rebound is easily suppressed. That was the closing position before the new rules were announced, only to observe the market.#ETF and Whale Funds Diverge, Can BTC Hold $80,000? Funds in a Tale of Two Extremes! ETF Outflows, Whales Aggressively Accumulate, BTC Faces a Major Test at the $80K Threshold, ETH and SOL Under Pressure
BTC recently dipped near $80,000, maintaining a relatively high market dominance of about 60%. The capital flow shows divergence: latest data indicates that the US BTC spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of 3,209 BTC, approximately $258 million; Bitfinex data shows large holders have cumulatively increased their BTC holdings by about 60,000 BTC since late August, mainly buying in the $80,000 to $86,000 range.
ETH and SOL, as high-risk mainstream assets, are more sensitive to macroeconomic shocks. Against the backdrop of rising interest rate hike expectations, risk aversion has increased. Compared to BTC, ETH and SOL exhibit greater volatility elasticity, with their charts weakening alongside the broader market, showing weaker rebound strength and strong capital hesitation.
Meanwhile, US CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations, fueling further interest rate hike expectations and continuing to suppress risk assets. The capital support around $80,000 has become a key market focus and will directly impact the subsequent rebound potential of ETH and SOL.RSI飙到88！Roadster飞行夜，是起飞还是诱多？
特斯拉Roadster飞行演示炸场，夜盘涨超2%，TSLA 同步异动，15分钟量能爆到基线70倍，资金关注度拉满。
️ 但RSI6已飙至88，严重超买；MACD水下金叉放量后，短线回调压力极大。Q3交付48.65万辆超预期提供基本面托底，但飞行演示对市值提振历来有限——华尔街反应偏谨慎，Polymarket上2027年前交付概率反而从33%暴跌至10%。
链上叙事同步打开：TSLAB已通过Venus Protocol进入BNB Chain Core Pool，抵押因子60%、清算阈值70%，DeFi可组合性上线。 BNB链持有者达61,055人，24h成交1.91M，买盘挂单厚实。
Hyperliquid上xTSLA 从373涨至378（+2.13%），合约成交8112万，杠杆24.3倍。未平仓合约从4670万飙至8233万（+76.3%），远超价格涨幅——增量杠杆疯狂进场。三巨鲸零仓建多，合计398万，均价377.60，正好卡关键阻力位。
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$DNA large sell order cost decreased. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell dropped from 1.27% to 1.05%. Slippage declined, indicating the order book is thickening.
$BASED large sell order cost decreased, small sell orders remained almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell dropped from 1.34% to 0.94%. 10,000 scale sell remains about 0.18%. Order size can be increased, but still validated with the 100,000 scale.
$A after amplifying orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated 10,000 scale buy/sell slippage is 0.14%/0.14%, 100,000 scale is 1.00%/0.83%. This is a cost table, not directional; simultaneous increase in buy and sell costs indicates overall order book depth is relatively thin.XRP, SOL, and OKB have all made big moves recently, but their quality varies. $XRP is the biggest event-driven bet, OKB is the most stable, and SOL is at the mercy of the market.
1. XRP is waiting for the SEC spot ETF final review, with results expected intensively next week; Grayscale expires on the 18th.
The ETF has already attracted $2.45 billion, holding 1.66 billion XRP tokens, and on-chain exchange supply is still decreasing, indicating someone is quietly accumulating.
My judgment is that it will most likely pass. Are you betting on XRP for this ETF wave?
2. $SOL's recent moves are driven by ecosystem developments and expectations for the Hong Kong ETF. But the RSI is only 27 now, and the 100 price level has been tested several times, so it might really break down.
It dropped more than two points today along with the broader market; it’s waiting for risk appetite to return.
3. $OKB's recent activity is the real use of the X Layer. It barely fell from 117 today, but trading volume shrank to $10 million, less than half of yesterday’s, indicating it’s a bit hard to push down now.
My view is that as long as it doesn’t break 110, it can be seen as consolidating and building a base. It doesn’t need others to signal; it relies entirely on its own ecosystem to drive the price. If it breaks above the 7-day moving average at 121, it can continue to be bullish.Short BTC? First, clearly see the opposing positions
Current price is around 82,200, with short-term moving average resistance between 82,600–83,000. The 20-month moving average at 87,165 and the year's opening price at 87,490 coincide, making the major resistance quite strong. Fundamentals are also worsening: October ETF cumulative net outflows have exceeded $500 million, Hut 8 related addresses transferred 1,589 BTC to exchanges in the past two days, about $130 million, showing real on-chain selling pressure.
But the opposing positions are also on the other side: addresses holding 10–10,000 BTC have reached 20,338, a record high, with continuous accumulation over the past three months. So shorting can only be a tactical trade, not a trend conviction.
Plan: Light short positions on a rebound to 82,800–83,000, stop loss above 83,600, target 81,200; add positions if it breaks down to 80,400. If volume increases and it breaks below 81,200, chase shorts targeting 78,000–79,800. Never hold losing positions; when shorts are crowded, a stampede hurts more than a short squeeze.
Shorting is okay, but only on rebounds, not chasing breakdowns. If tomorrow morning's ETF data shows net outflows over $200 million, add shorts; if inflows turn, immediately reduce positions. Are you on the whale side or the short side? Report your position in the comments.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises Is ETH supply really "surging"? Don't be fooled by appearances
If you only look at circulating supply, ETH has indeed been increasing since September 4. But this is not simple "money printing," nor is it "unlimited issuance."
To understand ETH supply, you have to break it down into three accounts:
Newly issued ETH
Validators earn rewards through staking, adding about 2,600–2,800 ETH daily.
Burned ETH
The base fees generated by on-chain transactions are permanently burned by the EIP-1559 mechanism. However, after the Dencun upgrade, a large amount of activity migrated to Layer 2, reducing mainnet fees and significantly decreasing burn volume.
Net supply change
What truly determines scarcity is "issuance minus burn." Currently, ETH is in a slight net inflation state, annualized at about 0.7%–0.86%, not an out-of-control issuance.
Therefore, the rise in circulating supply more reflects Layer 2 absorbing fees and insufficient burning, rather than ETH suddenly losing scarcity. When looking at supply, don't just focus on "issuance," but consider the net change.
Manage your positions well; don't be misled by a single data point.
— For informational purposes only, not investment advice.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises