Orbit Post Sitemap
TIA officially announced Eden, then retraced 18% from the high; I take the stance of "observe, don't chase," with the lifeline at 0.5826.
On 10/16 at 19:20 Beijing time, Celestia announced Eden: an EVM chain for AI agents, using TIA as gas.
But a few hours before the announcement, TIA had already surged from around 0.58 to above 0.71.
On 10/17 afternoon, it spiked to 0.7691; now OKX quotes about 0.628, down 14% in 24 hours.
The official also said Eden is an experimental sandbox, and the first experimental botfun is in closed testing.
I think this is a typical case of price rising before the announcement, peaking at the announcement; the hype is about expectations, not on-chain usage.
The market is pressured by rate hike expectations, BTC is consolidating around 81,700, funds cluster around small narratives, and disperse quickly.
My approach is to observe and not chase, not to catch falling knives on pullbacks.
Holding above 0.5826 (the low on 10/16, the start of this wave) keeps the narrative alive; a daily close below means full retracement and invalidates the logic.
Only a rebound above 0.7236 counts as bulls returning.
Where do you stand: will AI agents really burn TIA, or is this another case of good news fully priced in?
$TIA $INJ $ETH
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? #TIA market Bitcoin closes the weekly candle tonight, clearly defining the ceiling and floor
The intraday high touched $82,003, then quickly pulled back to around $81,700, fluctuating just below the $82,800 line
Analysts' script is straightforward: if the weekly candle holds above $82,800, the next target is $90,000; if it drops below $80,000, the next target is $70,000
Money is flowing out: In October, US BTC and ETH spot ETFs have seen a net outflow exceeding $1 billion, with $610 million redeemed in the single week from October 12 to 16
Outside, CPI is at 3.72%, interest rates start at 3.75%, so money earns yield just by sitting there—why would it come in to catch the falling knife?
My view: Until $82,800 holds, it's weak consolidation, no chase; if it breaks below $80,000, bears take over, continue to observe
Invalidation point: Weekly candle closes above $82,800 with ETFs turning to net inflow, then this judgment is void, I acknowledge
This round, do you expect bulls to reclaim $82,800 first, or $80,000 to break first?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin #BTCPullback, is market rotation starting? The reason is that I saw a claim that by overlaying the CSI 300 Total Return Index and the secondary bond fund index, one can judge the market bottom. So I pulled some data: You wouldn't believe it, but indeed, every time the CSI 300 Total Return Index falls below the secondary bond fund index, it basically marks a bottom. Someone told me that this is the magical indicator in the retail investor circle, based on this principle. Then I overlaid a similar one, comparing the Shanghai Composite Index with the ChinaBond Composite Wealth Index. The conclusion is similar: as long as the stock index's gains approach those of the bond index, it's basically a bottom. However, the second indicator is not as magical; it missed the bottoms at the end of 2008, 2013, and 2018, and in 2024, the bottom only appeared after breaking the bond bottom twice. There is a saying online that you can treat the bond returns as the social financing cost, while the stock gains represent the total returns created by the highest-quality listed companies. Subtracting the cost of capital from the returns created by companies gives the risk premium. In a normal market, the returns created by companies should be higher than the cost of capital in the long term, but historically, we find that corporate returns seem to revert strongly to the mean. Who is taking away the returns created by companies? I haven't figured that out. So we can almost conclude: in China, the bond market is a very good long-term beta market. Let's look at another set of data. Buying the CSI 300 Total Return Index on September 18, 2024, and holding until today yields a 39% gain. Buying the same index on October 8, 2024, and holding until today yields a 3% gain. In between #El Salvador's Bitcoin holdings exceed 7,800 coins El Salvador's holding of 7,800 bitcoins ($BTC) is seen by experts as a complex case full of internal contradictions. It is both a national-level endorsement of belief and a superficial persistence deeply constrained by external rules. From the experts' perspective, this is actually an increase constrained by the IMF. On the surface, El Salvador continues to increase its holdings under IMF pressure, but the truth is that the nature of the funds used for the increase has fundamentally changed. According to the IMF loan agreement, El Salvador has committed not to use public fiscal funds to increase Bitcoin holdings. However, its treasury holdings continue to grow because subsequent purchases come from private donations and the consolidation of internal treasury wallets, not fiscal appropriations. Experts see this as a regulatory loophole: the IMF's terms can control who spends money but cannot control who receives Bitcoin. So, will El Salvador sell to take profits? Experts believe the likelihood of a large-scale proactive sale to take profits is very low, but the commitment to hold forever is not without constraints. Bitcoin is President Bukele's core political asset, and the government has clearly designated it as a national reserve, with no political motivation to actively liquidate. However, El Salvador faces real fiscal pressure, with about $450 million in bonds maturing in 2026 and nearly $700 million in debt due in 2027. If the fiscal situation deteriorates severely, selling Bitcoin reserves to address liquidity crises will become an unavoidable option. Is this good news for retail investors? From a macro narrative and short-term price perspective, this leans toward a mild Bitcoin $BTC What's next?
1. Today's data
Long position liquidation intensity below: from 1.1 billion yesterday → about 840 million
Short position liquidation intensity above: from 1.6 billion yesterday → about 810 million
Both sides are thinning and almost equal.
2. The biggest pain points for longs and shorts
The biggest pain for shorts above is at 82,418, 0.81% away from the current price.
The biggest pain for longs below is at 80,753, 1.22% away from the current price.
3. Price levels to watch
82,418: Above here, shorts start to feel pain
80,753: Breaking below here triggers the first wave of forced liquidations.
4. My judgment
Longs and shorts are locked in close combat within the 81,000 to 82,000 range. The price has been stuck in this range for the past two days, forming a pivot. Eventually, one side will win.
The timing might be next week. Who do you think will win between longs and shorts? I would call this rebound the "stubbornness of a paper tiger." My most direct feeling right now can be summed up in one word—illusory
The price was hammered down to around 80,700 in the early morning, then bounced back to hover between 81,500 and 82,000. It looks like 80,000 is holding, but what did it do after bouncing up? It couldn't even hold above 82,000; every time it touched 82,200–82,500, it was pushed back down.
What really makes me confident to short at this position isn't the candlestick, but the "dirty stuff" in the derivatives structure. The long positions account for as much as 64.3% of all market accounts, sounds lively, right? But active long trades only make up 47.9%. To put it plainly: retail investors collectively shout long on paper, but very few actually put money in. The funding rate is still positive, Binance 0.003%, OKX 0.008%, longs are continuously paying rent to shorts. Many people, little money, and a positive funding rate—this kind of structure historically has never been for rising prices, but for burying people. $BTC 
The 82,000–82,500 range is the comfort zone for shorts today. Stop loss is set above 82,600, first target 81,300, and if broken, look for 80,700 or even the 80,000 level. Do not chase shorts; only enter after the rebound exhaustion, because the randomness of weekend spikes is too strong, chasing at the tip of the spike risks getting hit from both sides. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? 🔥刚在上海陆家嘴打完地标广告，Solana线下活动就被紧急叫停！$SOL
前几天Solana点亮花旗大厦楼宇灯光广告，在圈内刷屏，很多人以为项目方在国内顺利落地。
可就在上海香格里拉举办Accelerate China线下活动当天，经侦人员直接到场，参会人员被拦在会场外，活动被迫延期。官方对外只说是场地后勤原因推迟会议。
核心原因很清晰，我国明确禁止虚拟货币相关的宣传、交易推广。哪怕只是技术主题的线下聚会，一旦活动带有虚拟货币项目推广属性，就会受到监管核查。高调的外滩广告把关注度拉满，反而直接放大了风险。
这次事件给所有币圈项目敲了警钟，国内监管红线不会因为品牌营销就松动，高调造势只会引来更多关注。$FIL
FIL dropped more than 6%. Why can't storage space be directly converted into valuation space?
Spot price fell about 6.56% in 24 hours, ranging from 1.0384 to 1.223, with the price positioned at about 14% within the range.
Capacity, actual payments, and token buy orders are different levels. If demand growth cannot cover costs and supply, technology having utility does not necessarily support the price. The current pullback requires first verifying support.
If it first recovers to the middle of the range and then breaks through the upper boundary, the recovery assessment will strengthen; if the lower boundary continues to be breached, selling pressure should be respected. Long-term industry demand cannot be used as a buying reason valid at any price level. #AI may push GDP to 44 trillion, can investments break even? Around 82331, the market generally expects the third wave rally to begin
BTC rebounded from the intraday low at 82331, ETH at 2452, with mainstream voices relying on the 4-hour high-low rising structure, believing wave 1 from 76000 to 87397 and wave 2 retracement at 80085 are complete, now entering the third wave expansion phase. Market sentiment is heating up simultaneously, the fear and greed index has reached the greed zone at 63-64, BTC spot ETFs are seeing net inflows, and institutions are optimistic about digital asset inflows for the full year.
However, an alternative interpretation that is often overlooked is that this rally might just be a wave b rebound within wave 2, with a possible wave c decline still ahead. ETH’s trend shows more pressure, falling from the September 21 high of 2804 down to 2323, breaking a key range, and a large-scale wave ii correction may have started. If prices break key levels, the wave 3 projection logic will be invalidated.
If BTC holds 80000 and ETH stays above 2400, the bullish hypothesis remains worth watching; if these levels fail, this rebound is likely just a brief recovery within a correction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL The phrase "institutional funds continue to flow out" shouldn't be directly translated as all large funds retreating. When breaking down the ETF data, the situation is a bit more complex than the headline.
According to Farside's daily aggregated data, from October 12 to 16, the total net outflow of US BTC spot ETFs was about $228.4 million. In these five trading days, there were three days of outflows and two days of inflows, so it wasn't a continuous five-day one-sided withdrawal. Moreover, ETF subscriptions and redemptions only reflect this channel and cannot represent the entire market's institutional behavior.
Last week, the net buying through this channel was relatively weak, which is indisputable. But the numbers themselves cannot directly tell you how much the price will drop next, nor can you declare the bottom has been reached just because the price held up on a certain day.
What really makes me willing to raise a bit of confidence is that after the outflows, the price no longer easily hit new lows, and then more sustained spot buying appeared. If it were just derivatives funds temporarily propping up the price, the original selling pressure would not have truly been absorbed.
BTC now needs a stable process that can be verified by data. I understand the eagerness to bottom-fish; after a long decline, everyone hopes for a breather. But mistaking "not continuing to fall temporarily" for "the sellers have sold out" can easily lead to getting hurt again. Stabilization depends on subsequent buying confirmation, not just swapping in a more optimistic word in the headline.
#Institutional funds continue to flow out, can BTC stabilize? The US Dollar Index fell below 102, closing at 101.78, down 0.22% for the day. Normally, this would be bullish for BTC — but BTC only rose 0.21%, while gold increased by 0.40%. Why didn’t the weakening dollar lead to a bigger rally? First, the news: three prices — US Dollar Index 101.78 (intraday -0.22%), gold 4,186.7 (+0.40%, spot 4,166.10), BTC $81,528.4 (24h +0.21%, past week -1.84%). On the capital side, the latest US spot ETF net inflow was $16.2 million for the day, net outflow of $323.7 million over 5 days, and net outflow of $848.1 million over 10 days; on the sentiment side, the Fear & Greed Index dropped from 63 to 55; on the stock market side, the S&P 500 fell 1.09% to 7,659.44. Looking at capital impact: the dollar’s weakness acts as "pressure relief" rather than "upward momentum" for asset prices — it lowers the holding cost for non-dollar funds, but whether this translates into buying depends on the asset’s own capital channels. Today’s comparison is clear — gold is more elastic to dollar weakness (+0.40% vs BTC +0.21%), indicating that under the same exchange rate conditions, capital prefers to move first to the safe-haven side. For BTC to achieve similar elasticity, its own capital channel (ETF) needs to continue turning positive. Implications for BTC: dollar weakness is a necessary but not sufficient condition. A practical judgment framework is: dollar weakness + ETF net inflow = up$SOL
离 150 毫秒终极升级只剩最后 72 小时，多头却在 100 关口前哆嗦了。
Solana 核心开发团队此前敲定的 Alpenglow 主网共识升级定于 10 月 21 日正式落地，倒计时已进入最后 3 天。盘面在早间一度被砸至 101.22 险守百元大关，随后虽反弹重回 104 上方，但盘口限价卖单在 105 至 106 密集堆积，多空博弈白热化。SOL OKX 现货 104.25。
技术重大升级前夕往往伴随“买预期、卖事实”的抢跑行为。目前距离升级不足三天，部分前期埋伏的敏锐资金已经开始在 105 上方挂单分批锁定利润，并没有给场外追高资金留下轻松抬轿的余地。我判断在 10 月 21 日升级正式生效前，SOL 很难突破 108 阻力，大概率在 101 至 106 之间宽幅洗盘；若日内跌破 101，极可能引发踩踏跌穿 100 心理支撑。若未来 48 小时内现货放量突破并收复 109，看弱震荡的判断作废。
$SOL $BTC
The rebound looks lively, but a look at the data shows all the buy orders are short liquidations.
CoinGlass monitoring shows that in the past 24 hours, the total forced liquidation amount across the network reached $222 million, with long liquidations at $160 million, accounting for over 72%. After the morning dip to 80813.6 for a shakeout, BTC's market saw a short-term spike. Derivatives trading structure indicates that the main funding rates have generally returned to neutral, with buying mainly coming from active short position closures (short-covering), lacking large spot buy orders chasing higher prices. BTC OKX spot is at 81901.2.
The rebound after high leverage has been cleaned out is often very deceptive. During the low liquidity weekend window when US stock markets are closed, prices pushed up by short covering are easily suppressed again by sporadic sell orders at resistance levels due to the lack of real money relay from traditional institutions. I judge that in the upcoming weekend trading session, BTC is unlikely to directly break through the 82500 resistance; it is more likely to maintain a weak narrow range between 81200 and 82300. If it breaks below 81000, the market will likely seek liquidity again near 80500. If spot volume breaks out and holds firmly above 82800 during the day, this bearish consolidation view will be overturned.
$BTC
#LiquidationAndOrderbookTwo battles, two "ceasefires," one failed to reach agreement, the other never took effect.
First, let's talk about Hormuz. Both the US and Iran claim control over the strait. According to Kpler, by the week of October 13, the strait's daily oil transit was 11.6 million barrels, only 68% of pre-war levels. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two supertankers hit mines and caught fire; one was carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil, turned off its radar, and forced its way through following the US military; the US military said the mines had been cleared early, and the ships were hit by flying munitions. The UK maritime agency reported 8 attacks since the 11th. Iran's foreign minister said the strait could reopen within seven days, depending on the US; the US wants Iran to ease up first on the nuclear issue. The Houthis have also been active, attacking Saudi Arabia's main airports in rotation over a week, killing at least 20 people.
On the Russia-Ukraine front, Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" on the 11th, but Moscow never acknowledged it. Ukraine stopped attacking refineries for three days, but Russia continued bombing Ukraine's power grid; Zelensky said over a hundred civilians died in a week. On the 15th, he declared "we're done," and that same day the Ryazan refinery was hit; Russia said 69 drones and 4 cruise missiles were involved. Zelensky proposed a 60-day ceasefire followed by elections; the Kremlin said it wants lasting peace, not just a ceasefire.
Looking at these two events together, the White House's calculation is clear: before the November 3 midterm elections, Iran should hold off on fighting, and Russia should ease up if possible, all to suppress oil prices. But the ceasefires haven't materialized, and Brent crude closed near 110 on Friday. What's more worrying is that after the elections, plans to strike Iranian energy facilities are already on the table—that's the real tail risk for oil prices. $BZ 下午弹窗直接炸出来！！$SAND 做多50倍，开仓均价0.05956、标记价0.06569、+514.60%，绿得有点离谱。
按价算0.05956到0.06569实涨约10.27%，被50倍拧成五倍多收益，纯是杠杆把小波段放大到极限。0.06569已贴短压区，山寨脉冲常是“拉完就派发”，50倍多单容错接近零，一根向下插针就能把浮盈全抽走还带伤。
我主仓先锁，底仓留一丢丢当观察费，不加仓不追高。没0.05956成本别冲，追进去就是给前面获利盘递退出通道。$BTC $ETH #纳指100周跌5.5%，芯片股八连跌 Tesla's new car can flip in the air, and its stock price has risen, but will the market really pay for it?
The new generation Roadster has finally debuted. Leveraging propulsion technology related to SpaceX, this sports car demonstrates moves like aerial flips and brief airtime, with Musk even pushing it to performance limits unimaginable for traditional cars.
After the announcement, Tesla's stock price rose temporarily. Interestingly, the mass production plan for this car is not until 2028. In other words, the current market trading is more about technological imagination and brand influence rather than immediate additional revenue.
Supporters see Tesla's ability to connect automobiles, aerospace technology, and future mobility; skeptics focus on another matter: no matter how impressive the demonstration is, the key to long-term value lies in how many units can ultimately be sold and how much profit they can contribute.
Moreover, Tesla still faces investments in autonomous driving and robotics businesses, as well as tests of profitability in its core automotive operations. The new car launch can boost sentiment but may not solve all operational issues.
So what truly deserves discussion this time is not just how cool the Roadster is, but how much premium the capital market is willing to pay for future stories.
Do you think this launch is a proof of Tesla's technological strength, or is the market once again trading a story that is still far from realization in advance? #Tesla launches new generation Roadster, stock rises $TSLA $NEAR
NEAR continues to show weakness; how much pricing support can the AI sector narrative still provide?
Spot price has dropped about 3.20% over 24 hours, ranging between 4.762 and 5.198, with the price positioned at approximately 26% within this range.
Although both are AI-related focus areas, token demand for different assets can vary significantly. When the market contracts and risks rise, expectations lacking immediate revenue validation are more likely to be discounted; having the same label does not mean the same returns.
If the upper boundary is effectively reclaimed and relative performance versus BTC improves, the recovery assessment can be raised; if the lower boundary is breached, the narrative premium should be lowered. Without evidence of paid revenue or income, price fluctuations should not be interpreted as sudden business improvement or deterioration.$BTC Recently, the threat of quantum computer attacks on Bitcoin has become a hot topic again. Here are my views:
Currently, quantum computers cannot break Bitcoin. The real potential risk is not the SHA‑256 hash algorithm used in mining, but the elliptic curve algorithm used for signatures; in the future, sufficiently powerful fault-tolerant quantum computers can only steal bitcoins whose on-chain public keys have already been exposed. Assets at addresses with unpublished public keys are unaffected. Existing NISQ noisy quantum machines cannot run the Shor algorithm needed for cracking, and such capable attacking devices are unlikely to be realized in the short term. The Bitcoin community can respond to this risk by soft-forking to replace the quantum-resistant signature algorithm; the entire network will not collapse once quantum computers emerge.
Previously, Ethereum was hacked (2016): hackers exploited a vulnerability in The DAO contract to steal a large amount of ETH. The community hard-forked to roll back the transactions, forming the current Ethereum ETH; nodes that refused to alter the ledger stayed on the original chain, giving birth to ETC Ethereum Classic. This was the only official chain split fork in Ethereum's history.
Even if quantum computers begin to take shape, Bitcoin can fork to quantum encryption. $ETH $HYPE Twice inflation exceeded expectations, ETF net outflow of $228 million in one week, BTC still holding above 80,000, I choose to observe and not chase.
September CPI year-on-year 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%.
September PPI month-on-month 1.3%, expected only 0.6%.
US spot BTC ETF net outflow this week was $228 million, with IBIT alone outflowing $165 million.
Over the weekend, BTC first dropped nearly a thousand dollars then pulled back, current price around 81,770, 24-hour low 80,814.
I think this is not a bottom-fishing signal, more like calm before the Monday US stock market opens.
The negative news hit twice but didn’t break 80,000, indicating someone is buying.
But if ETF funds don’t return, the rebound won’t go far.
I’m just watching, not moving.
Daily close above 82,800 is considered a shift to strength.
If it breaks below this week’s low of 79,775, support judgment fails, next stop around 74,955.
On Monday when the US stock market opens, do you think BTC will break below 80,000 first or return to 83,000 first?
$BTC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #BitcoinETF总结一下目前山寨币市场人气最高的几个项目的基本面，差异其实挺大。
$NEAR ：意图交易是比较有价值的方向，已经有实际使用和费用产生，回购机制也在运行。但如果回购速度赶不上代币发行，净供应依然会增加。技术进展值得关注，供需关系同样重要。
$ZEC ：核心逻辑是金融隐私，而不是协议收入。随着屏蔽交易和隐私需求发展，它有自己的长期叙事。
$TAO ：目前我依然看好它在去中心化 AI 领域的布局。子网、外部客户和收入回购机制都值得研究。不过，子网收入到底有多少来自真实市场需求，以及能否覆盖代币排放，是判断其长期价值的关键。
ZRO：跨链基础设施有实际使用场景，Stargate 的费用也为回购提供了来源。但机构结算等新叙事还需要时间验证，短期解锁则是不能忽略的供应压力。
STRK：技术和生态应用有一定基础，BTCFi 也提供了新的发展方向。但持续解锁带来的抛压不小，需求增长能否消化新增供应，需要重点观察。
这些项目并不是非黑即白。有的已经有收入，有的技术领先，有的仍处于兑现预期的阶段。
但基本面好，不等于任何价格都值得买。Funds are going their separate ways; it's advisable to keep light positions over the weekend
Last night’s capital flow showed no coordinated movement among the three major coins. BTC had spot buying support, ETH faced concentrated short-term selling pressure, and SOL shifted from all-day inflows to short-term weakness, indicating mixed market sentiment.
🔸BTC: 24-hour spot net inflow of $43.4 million, contract net outflow of $37.28 million; but in the last 4 hours, spot net inflow nearly zero, contract net outflow of $29.22 million. This suggests there was buying support throughout the day, but recent hours saw no sustained buying momentum.
🔸ETH: 24-hour spot net outflow of $13.44 million, contract net outflow of $273 million; in the last 4 hours, spot net outflow of $44.64 million, contract net outflow of $204 million. Short-term outflows are more concentrated than the full day, with both spot and contracts leaning towards selling, showing the most pronounced short-term pressure.
🔸SOL: 24-hour spot net inflow of $11.72 million, contract net outflow of $55.4 million; in the last 4 hours, spot turned to a net outflow of $5.69 million, indicating a clear cooling of support, and sustained buying has yet to return.
Overall, BTC spot remains relatively stable, ETH is the weakest in the short term, and SOL lacks follow-up capital. A rebound can happen quickly, but whether funds are willing to follow through continuously is the key. I won’t take large positions over the weekend; I’ll wait for continuous spot buying to return before acting.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
*Option 1 - The Alpha Take (for X / Threads)*
> Netflix Q3 is the real ad-test.
> Forecast: $12.86B revenue (+11.7% YoY) | 33.2% operating margin vs 28.2% last year | Ad goal $3B in 2026, doubling $1.5B in 2025 b4ce
> Ad tier now 250M+ monthly users & >50% of new sign-ups in ad markets. The subscription business literally split into two: subs + ads.
> Growth is slowing (13.4% Q2 → 11.7% Q3 guide) but margin is expanding. If ads hit $3B, that's ∼6% of total revenue#SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report after going public will be revealed
After the market closes on October 20, SpaceX will release its first full quarterly report since going public, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 AM Beijing time on the 21st. To be honest, this earnings report has much less to do with our on-chain SPCX tokens than one might imagine.
Let's first look at the underlying stock. It surged to 171 in early October but slid to around 146 in just over a week, showing significant volatility. The market is not focused on how much was earned this quarter, but rather on whether the Starlink and AI computing power segments can continue the story. Analysts expect Q3 revenue between $12.7 billion and $12.9 billion, with EPS around 14 cents, but consensus has risen to 23 cents in recent weeks. If realized, this would be SpaceX's first-ever profitable quarter. The burn rate remains high, with capital expenditures expected to reach $10.8 billion, so cash flow pressure has not eased.
The on-chain side is even more interesting. The tokenized SPCX wallets increased by more than 369 in 24 hours, reaching a total of 114,000, which looks lively, but trading volume dropped by over 30% in the same period, down to just over $110 million. Simply put, on-chain SPCX is just a shadow of the underlying stock; pricing power is not really in the DEX pools.
My view is simple: don't take the pulse of on-chain MEME before the earnings report as a signal; the closing price of the underlying stock is the anchor. If you want to play the game, wait for the underlying stock to set the direction after the market closes on the 20th, then follow on-chain—it won't be too late.#Netflix growth may slow down, advertising business becomes a new highlight I'm still somewhat optimistic about Netflix this quarter, likely to slightly beat expectations, but I still choose No. It's not because of any black technology, but because the fundamentals are being fulfilled rhythmically.
Wall Street and the company's own numbers are almost the same (12.88 billion vs 12.86 billion, EPS both 0.82), indicating the bar isn't high this time. As long as the full quarter of North American price increases is included, buybacks continue to reduce shares, and exchange rates provide a small boost, revenue around 12.9 billion and EPS between 0.83-0.85 is a reasonable range.
Advertising is indeed a weak point; the 3 billion target looks a bit ambitious, but the current scale is still small and doesn't significantly impact this quarter's big numbers. As long as the shareholder letter maintains the statement "expected to double this year," the market will likely accept it.
My judgment: revenue around 12.9 billion, EPS 0.83-0.85, which counts as a slight beat. If revenue surpasses 13 billion, that would be a more sincere outperformance; below 12.8 billion would be cause for concern.
Even with a slight beat, the stock price may not immediately react because everyone cares more about the full-year story ahead.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
By the way, recently OKX has a free US stock earnings forecast event, and you can earn XP daily. The threshold isn't high, so if you want to participate, you can check it out.Bitcoin briefly broke above $82,000 before retreating to fluctuate around $81,000, with key support seen at the $79,800 level.
From the news perspective, this rebound mainly comes from technical buybacks: previously, the US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, and the PPI surged even more (up 6.3% year-over-year). The market once sharply raised its expectations for Fed rate hikes, triggering nearly $1 billion in leveraged liquidations, and spot ETFs also saw significant outflows. BTC once dipped near $79,800. But then buying quickly entered, and the price pulled back in a V-shape within two hours, briefly standing above $82,000.
Currently, bulls and bears are still contesting around $82,000. The resistance zone above at $84,000 is the previous high; only a valid breakthrough and stabilization there can confirm the continuation of the rebound. The support at $79,800 below has been tested multiple times recently and is also the low area of the previous sharp drop. If this support fails, the price may further test the $80,000 psychological level or even lower.
In the short term, the market is waiting for further signals before the FOMC decision at the end of October (27-28). Hot inflation data suppresses risk appetite, but the quick price recovery at key levels also shows that bottom buying remains. In terms of trading, a break above $82,000 can be followed with light positions, while a break below $79,800 calls for caution against accelerated downside risk. #Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure? $BTC The institutional gateway has opened, but the price of HYPE still has to move on its own
$HYPE has gained something worth studying. On October 15, Ripple announced that institutional clients can trade RWA perpetual swaps through Ripple Prime, referencing contracts from Trade.xyz on Hyperliquid.
The value of this news is that there is an additional institutional product gateway. Whether it will be used continuously and how much business it can contribute requires actual data; opening the gateway itself does not mean revenue has been realized.
The price still fell about 6% in the week before noon, so my assessment is that it adds points to business leads but does not add points for the short term.
$XRP also needs to be read carefully in the same announcement: it clearly allows RLUSD as collateral but this cannot be interpreted as institutions must buy XRP. My view is that the progress of related companies' business should be judged based on specific demand for token benefits.
$BICO offers experiences including paying transaction fees on behalf of users and allowing users to pay with other tokens. While user operations are more convenient, someone still has to bear the costs; I am more interested in studying customers who pay continuously rather than just counting how many applications have been connected.ETH longs are crowded at 75%, yet over $62 million in long positions liquidated in the past day.
The price looks calm: spot around $2416, almost unchanged in 24 hours.
But the leverage side tells a completely different story.
About 75.5% of contract traders are long, with an annualized funding rate of about 5.3%, still charging longs.
In the same window, ETH long liquidations exceeded $62 million, the heaviest among major coins.
Across the entire market, 24-hour liquidations totaled about $289 million, with longs accounting for about 79%.
On one side, crowded longs; on the other, longs are continuously being liquidated.
Price is sideways, but the structure is weakening.
First, clarify the invalidation conditions: if spot price stabilizes above $2450 again and long liquidations significantly decrease, this "observe but don’t chase" phase can end.
Until then, I won’t catch falling knives or bottom fish.
Which signal do you care about more now: the long ratio or the liquidation amount?
#ETH #CryptoMarket
$ETH $BTC $SOL🍜 Sunday afternoon, Dogecoin, on-chain exchanges, and Micron three items
$DOGE 0.08043, the one with unlimited supply 🐶 Unlike BTC's deflationary halving, DOGE has a fixed annual issuance, theoretically unlimited supply, which determines it is not a long-term store of value but a low-fee payment and community tipping tool. This round at 0.0804 didn't follow BTC back to 82000 because meme funds haven't flowed back; DOGE needs to be re-noticed through community transfer volume or external influencers.
$HYPE 80.88, the one that moved order book matching onto the chain 📊 Ordinary DEXs use AMM automatic market making, but this one builds traditional order book matching directly on its own L1, with transaction depth and slippage close to CEX, which is its core difference from other on-chain DEXs. Ahead of AMD earnings, looking at HeliosAI commercialization, expanding enterprise computing demand, on-chain trading depth will be re-evaluated; the 80.88 level relies on this matching depth.
$xMU 913.82, the original manufacturer looking at inventory in the DRAM cycle 🏭 Micron mainly makes DRAM, prices follow memory inventory cycles, inventory destocking, price rise and fall cycles switch. The 913 pullback combined with sector sentiment, AMD HeliosAI type AI servers will drive HBM and DRAM demand, the cycle direction is set.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#AMD earnings preview: HeliosAI system commercialization progress The macro data this week is quite scary. The weekly gap between the Nasdaq and the Dow is the largest since 2002. The Nasdaq dropped 2.5%, while the Dow fell less than 0.5%. The last time it was this extreme was during the bursting of the internet bubble.
The reason is simple: tech stocks' earnings reports disappointed, with Alphabet and Netflix both shunned by the market, and SpaceX's SPXC, which went public via a SPAC, fell 5% in a week. Coupled with CPI and PPI continuously exceeding expectations, the rate hike expectations have returned to 28%. Money is clearly flowing out, moving from AI tech to traditional defensive sectors.
This is not good news for the crypto space. BTC is long-term correlated with the Nasdaq; this week, with the Nasdaq weak, BTC also fell from 83,000 back to 80,000. If the tech narrative continues to fade and inflation remains uncontrollable, this divergence will persist. Currently, the Dow might be a more accurate indicator than the Nasdaq. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🚨 Bitcoin's price has multiplied several times, but retail investors' attention hasn't kept pace
This chart, I believe, reveals one of the most thought-provoking phenomena of this BTC bull market
Looking back:
📈 2017 bull market: Bitcoin surged, and Google search interest for "Bitcoin" hit an all-time high.
📈 2021 bull market: BTC reached new highs, and market attention surged again.
📈 2025–2026: Bitcoin's price has approached the $100,000 level, but general public search interest for "Bitcoin" is far below that of 2017!
What does this mean?
Past Bitcoin bull markets were largely driven by retail investors' enthusiasm.
But this round might be different
ETFs, institutional investors, and corporate treasury allocations are changing the capital structure of the Bitcoin market.
Even more interesting:
Search interest for "BTCUSD" once surged dramatically, but general public search interest for "Bitcoin" did not simultaneously reach a new historical high.
This may indicate that market attention is shifting from mere retail curiosity to more mature trading and investment demands.
Of course, a decline in Google search interest might also reflect Bitcoin's widespread adoption and changes in how information is accessed, which doesn't mean retail investors aren't participating.
But one thing is clear:
Bitcoin's price has risen, but public attention hasn't kept up $BTC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after listing will be revealed
🚀 18,712 BTC on SpaceX's books: a subtle line in the financial report that the crypto community must watch closely.
Prospectus data: holding 18,712 BTC with a cost of $661 million. Q1 fair value is $1.29 billion, down from the end of 2025.
The profit and loss of this position is negligible compared to the $7.8 billion quarterly revenue.
The real significance lies in the signal: a giant valued at 2 trillion puts BTC on its balance sheet and does not sell during the downturn, which is a silent but strong endorsement.
Adding another variable: tokenized mirror stock rSPAX.
Good financial report → stablecoins flow into rSPAX, diverting BTC/ETH liquidity;
Bad financial report → funds flee from rSPAX, returning to crypto assets.
Remember: SpaceX's Bitcoin won't pump the market. But its financial report expectations have already become a new source of liquidity disturbance in the crypto market. #SpaceX's first full quarterly financial report after listing will be revealed
🚀 18,712 BTC on SpaceX's books: a subtle line in the financial report that the crypto community must closely watch.
Prospectus data: holding 18,712 bitcoins at a cost of $661 million. Q1 fair value is $1.29 billion, down from the end of 2025.
The profit and loss of this position is negligible compared to the $7.8 billion quarterly revenue.
The real significance lies in the signal: a giant valued at 2 trillion puts BTC on its balance sheet and does not sell during the downturn, which is a silent but strong endorsement.
Adding another variable: tokenized mirror stock rSPAX.
Good financial report → stablecoins flow into rSPAX, diverting BTC/ETH liquidity;
Bad financial report → funds flee from rSPAX, returning to crypto assets.
Remember: SpaceX's bitcoin won't pump the market. But its financial report expectations have already become a new source of liquidity disturbance in the crypto market. SpaceX released its first full financial report after market close on October 20. Everyone is calculating whether AI will surpass Starlink; the real pricing event is the unlocking.
Last quarter's revenue has already turned around: Starlink $4.3B, AI $2.6B, Aerospace $960M.
This quarter AI is very likely to surpass Starlink for the first time: UBS $7.6B, FactSet consensus $6.47B, Starlink expected $4.9B.
But this is not a surprise. Starlink $4.9B plus Aerospace $1B, others total about $6B, consensus $6.47B just barely exceeds this line.
Musk said in August that AI revenue would exceed the rest of the business combined in September.
The market has already taken this as the baseline scenario. The real upside surprise threshold is $7.6B, not just surpassing Starlink.
What’s tougher is the supply: 28% unlocks on the second trading day after the report, and full unlock on December 8.
What you’re betting on is not the revenue structure, but whether anyone will absorb this 28%.
Stock price $146.03, 8.2% higher than the June 12 issue price of $135, but 9.3% lower than the first day’s close of $160.95.
The largest IPO in history at $75B, only an 8% premium after four months.
I think the odds are off. The upside requires exceeding $7.6B to be a surprise, while the downside is pressured by the 28% unlock.
I won’t buy before the earnings report; I’ll wait until after the unlock to see if AI contracts renew.
Invalidation condition: AI ≥ $7.6B and Starlink ≥ $4.9B, both engines exceed expectations simultaneously, judgment void.
Which side are you betting on: AI surpassing Starlink this quarter, or waiting for the unlock to finish crashing?
$SPCX
#SpaceXEarningsThe crowding of contract longs has just peaked and is now accelerating its turnaround.
The funding rate for $SOL hit 0.01% on the morning of October 14, which annualizes to 36.5%. This is the highest since this rally started. It began to drop that same afternoon, returning to the positive boundary by noon on the 16th, turning negative at 4 PM on the 17th, and by the morning of the 18th, it had been negative for three consecutive eight-hour periods. The more negative the rate, the faster these longs at high levels are losing money, and they are rushing to close their positions.
Volume is shrinking in sync. On the 15th, trading volume was $118 million, dropping to $72 million on the 16th, $42 million on the 17th, and only $23 million on the 18th. The less the volume, the heavier each subsequent trade feels. This shrinkage usually doesn't rebound immediately, but it signals a bottom. Once any news or event triggers buying, the first thing encountered will be a situation where there are hardly any sellers.
High funding rates for longs combined with low trading volume is the most typical bottom pattern. For the funding rate to stabilize back into positive territory, there must first be buyers willing to take positions, meaning volume must expand first, then confirm new longs entering from the volume perspective. This is a more genuine confirmation than price alone.
With the new consensus activation on the 21st, SOL will only have reason to move up alone once the trading volume expands for the first time in these days.82,000 is not the bottom; it’s just that no one is pushing for now
$BTC is currently hanging at $82,012, up only 0.5% in 24 hours.
$ETH is reported at $2,403 and still falling.
How this number is calculated: Spot ETFs saw an outflow of $500 million last week.
Ethereum ETFs had an outflow of $600 million in the same period.
Money is flowing out, but prices haven’t dropped much, indicating buyers are still there.
Where it’s stuck: 82,000 is just a temporary agreement point between buyers and sellers.
It’s not confirmed support.
If it breaks below 80,000, the next level to watch is 75,000.
If $ETH breaks below 2,304, about $472 million in long positions will be liquidated by the system.
The real risk is not in the price itself.
It’s that after CPI exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike jumped from 22% to 51%.
High liquidity assets are the first to have funds withdrawn.
Those who set stop losses below 80,000 have already written the answer.
#VanEck stops pushing Lido staked Ethereum ETF
#$BTC $ETH It now feels more like the hesitation period at the end of a shakeout, not a window for chasing gains. Are you also watching the price but feel that the capital signals are somehow off? What has gripped me most these days isn't the candlestick charts, but several conflicting clues. On October 15, Solana minted 250 million USDC, which sounds like new ammunition entering the market; but at the same time, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $228.6 million over five days. On one side money is being created, on the other it is being withdrawn. This is not a simple bull-bear disagreement, but more like a psychological split among the crowd: some fear missing out, others fear catching the falling knife. My own feeling is that the price is still playing "all is well," but the sentiment has already grown tired. BTC bounced from 79,770 back to around 82,000, with the 80K level acting more like a psychological sentinel everyone is watching collectively rather than a solid bottom. ETH's rebound is weak, indicating some bottom-fishing but insufficient willingness to chase prices. SOL is at 103.96, with around 100 as a short-term emotional defense line; breaking below it could easily trigger a chain reaction of "run first, talk later." The on-chain whale liquidation of 4,890 ETH and the roughly $13 million floating profit on 20x long positions on SOL are interesting to view together: on one side is the pain of leverage backfiring, on the other is the thrill of high risk appetite still making money. This combination is the easiest to create FOMO—seeing others profit while forgetting others are also being liquidated. Narrative fatigue is also here; people no longer believe in rebounds unconditionally and start picking signals, coins, and timing. The bullish path is: stablecoin issuance gradually turning into buying power, BTC holding above 80K with oscillation and digestion, SOL holding 100#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 SAND Comprehensive Market Overview + Smart Money Behavior Analysis (Data as of 13:55) 【Market Snapshot】 Perpetual 0.06423 | Spot 0.06523 (Spot Premium +1.56%) 24h +14.9%, High 0.06601, Low 0.05585, Volume $18.7M OI from 20.5M → 41.8M contracts (Doubled in 29 hours +103%) Funding Rate -0.0145% (At 00:00 on 10-18 it was -0.0069%, negative value deepening) 【Multi-Timeframe Structure】 1d: On 10-02, a +60% volume surge pushed the price to 0.0837, then it gradually distributed down to 0.0527. The current wave is a rebound after a 37% drop. Price is above EMA10(0.0612)/EMA21(0.0591), EMA50 is only 0.0518 — mid-term still a corrective structure, not a new trend. RSI 61. 4h: EMA5/10/21 bullish alignment (0.0626/0.0600/0.0583), volume ratio 3.13x, real volume, not fake pump. RSI 58, not overbought. 1h: volume ratio 1.93x, RSI 65, short-term slightly hot but still room to grow. 【Smart Money Intent — Three Key Evidences】 1️⃣ Spot leads the rally, not contracts. At 10:00, when the volume surged by 5M, the spot premium rose from +0.3 Last night I almost got tricked into buying by the "Trump positive news" again
At 3 a.m., the group chat exploded.
"Trump said the Iran war will end! BTC ETH are about to pump! Run, if you don't enter now, it'll be too late!"
I was sitting in front of my computer, finger hovering over the buy button, but in the end, I closed the software.
Then I checked three pieces of data, and felt a chill down my spine:
First, the rebound never happens at dawn.
BTC hit a low from $79,700 on October 15 and then started to recover, by the 17th it had already reclaimed above $82,000. The market moves ahead, the speech lags behind. When the news came out at dawn, the market actually dropped a bit.
Second, I've heard this line more than once.
In March this year, he said "the war will end soon" once, and on October 7 he said it again, this rally's speech was almost the same. Say it once, oil prices move a bit; say it four times, the market's ears have grown calluses.
Third, the scariest thing was the widely spread "Iran will resume navigation in 7 days" message in the group.
I searched for half an hour, not a single mainstream source confirmed it. An unverified message can ignite FOMO in hundreds of people within seconds.
What I posted in Orbit last night was:
Slogans are his job, but my position is my life.
Only two things can be verified: navigation data of the strait, and the ceasefire agreement on paper. Until these two are settled, all the "about to surge" claims are what others want you to hear.
After dawn, guess if the loudest person in the group chat is still online? Currently, the funding rates for BTC, ETH, SOL, and HYPE are all positive, indicating that the perpetual market overall still has a bullish bias. However, judging from the spot prices, this is more likely a signal of crowded long positions. Ajian reminds everyone to be extra cautious about such divergences, as ultimately the market price must be supported by spot buying, not just contract sentiment.价格刷新高，边际成交却在降温。13:47（UTC+8）的 OKX 公开数据显示，$SAND 现货报 0.06559，24 小时上涨 17.59%，区间为 0.05576—0.06660；近 24 个完整小时现货成交额约 618 万 USDT，永续约 2.32 亿 USDT。
上一完整 4 小时，现货上涨 5.99%、成交额较前一周期增加 103.49%；永续上涨 4.59%、成交额增加 111.29%。趋势和中周期成交仍强，但上一完整 1 小时现货与永续虽分别上涨 1.21% 和 0.95%，成交额却环比减少 9.03% 和 24.25%，短线追价力量开始分化。
当前永续 OI 约 1.56 亿 SAND（约 1006 万美元），Funding 约 -0.9458%。深负费率会抬高空头持仓成本，但单点 OI 和 Funding 都不能证明上涨必然延续。
我先看 0.06530 能否由压力转为支撑。后续完整 1H 若站稳该位且成交重新扩张，才支持再测 24 小时高点 0.06660；若跌破 0.06153，并伴随 OI 或永续成交明显收缩，则更像冲高后的去杠杆，我不会追涨。The significance of $BTC at $80,000: currently, if it breaks below $80,000 benefiting only a small group of people, then it definitely will break below, as money always flows from the majority to the minority.
On-chain cost support: The average holding cost of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is about $81,500, while the more critical "real market average price" (average cost of active investors) is around $78,000.
Order book buy orders: Large buy orders on Binance's spot order book are also concentrated in the $80,000 to $81,500 range.
Although there are still buy orders near $80,000, the downward support below this level is significantly weakening. Once the key $80,000–$81,500 area is effectively broken, the price may quickly drop to the $76,000–$78,000 range.
Below $80,000 also corresponds to a potential liquidation cluster in the futures market; breaking below may trigger forced long liquidations, amplifying the downward trend.
#Institutional funds continue to flow out, can BTC stabilize? #VanEck halts progress on Lido staked Ethereum ETF Netflix is scheduled to report its Q3 results after the U.S. market closes on October 20. Going into the announcement, my outlook remains moderately bullish, but several factors deserve close attention. The company’s quarterly revenue outlook is approximately $12.9 billion, implying year-over-year growth of around 12%, while its projected operating margin stands near 33%. My base case is that Netflix will deliver a result broadly in line with expectations, with potential upside if advertising re⚠️ 🔥 Behind the sharp plunge in U.S. stocks, is the real crisis just beginning?
From last week to this week, U.S. tech stocks have clearly come under pressure. On October 16, $QQQ Nasdaq dropped 2.19% in a single day, the S&P 500 fell 1.22%, while the Dow was relatively resilient. Why did it fall so sharply this time? I believe there are three key reasons!
First, inflation has once again become the market’s biggest concern. The U.S. September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than market expectations. Inflation stubbornly not coming down means the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates may be limited, and the longer high interest rates persist, the more pressure high-valuation tech stocks will face.
Second, AI trading is starting to cool off. In the past, the market was willing to assign high valuations whenever AI was mentioned. But now, funds are focusing on another question: when will the massive computing power investments actually translate into real profits? Financing pressure on some AI infrastructure companies has drawn attention, and once tech stocks lose funding support, the pullback could be amplified.
Third, rising oil prices combined with profit-taking. Rising energy costs may exacerbate inflation concerns, and the large accumulated unrealized gains from earlier have led some funds to choose to cash out. With negative factors concentrated, panic sentiment naturally spreads easily.
Going forward, U.S. stocks may not continue to fall all the way, but if inflation, oil prices, and AI financing risks are not alleviated soon, any rebound may just be a breather in the downward process.
#Nasdaq down 5.5% over 100 weeks, chip stocks down eight consecutive times $SNDK $MU This round of sideways movement is not simply waiting for data; after CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, the market is forced to conduct a defensive redistribution of chips. Funding rates have turned negative, and open interest contracts have shrunk within a narrow range, indicating that leveraged longs are actively reducing risk; prices haven't moved much, but the underlying chips are actually changing hands.
First, let's talk about $BTC Bitcoin. The 80,000 level has been repeatedly tested but each time it has been supported. The funding rate turning negative means shorts are paying to bet, while whale positions are increasing against the trend. This is not a bearish market; it's a process where weak hands are handing chips to strong hands. The 80,000 mark is a short-term lifeline—if it holds, the market remains in consolidation; if it breaks, look down to 78,000.
Next, $ETH Ethereum. Ethereum is weaker than Bitcoin; ETFs continue to bleed, and institutions are retreating, targeting it first. However, its leverage ratio has already decreased, and shorts are not crowded. If Bitcoin can stabilize, short covering might give Ethereum a brief rebound. But this rebound lacks sustainability; without ETF bleeding stopping, Ethereum has no confidence to strengthen independently.
Finally, $XAUT Gold. Gold is the only beneficiary in this risk-off process. With U.S. Treasury yields falling, funds have exited crypto ETFs and turned to gold ETFs. In Q3, global gold ETF net inflows hit a record high, and central banks continue to increase holdings. Bitcoin's buying is driven by leverage and short-term funds, while gold's buying is from allocation funds; their patience levels are completely different. After waking up from my nap and glancing at the market, I thought the software had a bug—it crashed terribly, and the long-short ratio actually reached 7 times?
$SNDK is currently priced at 1268, with the daily chart steadily declining from over 1400. Logically, it should have triggered a stop loss, right? Yet the long-short ratio is as high as 5.09! The open interest dropped from 114 million to 76 million, showing that the main funds have clearly fled. Even worse, the funding rate is deeply negative, so retail investors are not only stubbornly holding the bag but also paying money to beg the main players to dump.
The most absurd is $SKHYNIX, currently at 899, down from nearly 2000, with the long-short ratio forcibly soaring to 7.22! Seven bulls against one bear—this scene is tragic, everyone is guessing the bottom, but this is clearly a bottomless pit.
$MU is the same, currently at 864, with a long-short ratio of 5.39. This steady decline combined with such distorted data means that any slight rebound is met with selling pressure from those trying to break even.
My view: The US stock market is closed over the weekend, and these tokens have no spot market anchor; it’s purely retail investor sentiment gambling. In this scenario of extremely crowded longs and retreating main funds, don’t be the bag holder. I’ll stay out of the market and watch the show. Only when these bulls completely give up and get liquidated will the bottom truly be in.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? $95 billion order backlog couldn't stop Dell from dropping 23% in one week.
Q2 earnings on September 1: AI server new orders for the quarter reached $60.9 billion, with a backlog of $95 billion, nearly doubling quarter-over-quarter; revenue was $47 billion (+58%); guidance raised to $192 billion.
On October 14, Barclays downgraded Dell from overweight to neutral, cutting the target price from $603 to $574. Analyst quote: "Valuation has peaked, commodity costs boosted revenue, but we haven't seen a real AI inflection point."
Closed Friday at $451.71 (-4.6%), down 23% for the week, the worst week since 2018.
My judgment: The market reads the "downgrade" as "demand falsification," but Barclays itself admits Dell's execution across all lines is excellent. What they are really betting on is that this growth relies on passing on memory price increases rather than selling more products; once memory normalizes, growth will significantly slow over the next two years.
This is not an AI demand issue, but a hardware cycle issue: the $95 billion order backlog is real, but the pricing bonus will expire.
Next, watch two things: spot memory prices and whether next quarter's backlog can still rise.
If next quarter's backlog turns down quarter-over-quarter, the "orders are real" thesis is wrong; if memory prices keep rising and Dell continues to pass on price increases, the "cycle slowdown" thesis is wrong.
Do you trust the $95 billion order backlog more, or the judgment of "no AI inflection point seen"?
$DELL
#DellWorstWeek$FIL is a chronic death coin, just go long to make some profit and then run, you can't hold it long-term because sooner or later it will return to its original priceFollow the contract funds｜The contract position of this coin is decreasing (24-hour open interest down by 38.24%), yet the price has risen by 74.71%.
Currently, there is still $35.06 million in open positions. The positions exiting are likely mostly shorts: closing a short requires buying back, which probably pushed the price up like this.