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In the contract accounts, the number of long positions is about 5.2 times that of short positions. However, among the top traders, the long positions are only about 0.72 times the short positions.
On one side, the number of people is overwhelmingly long, but on the other side, the positions are actually more short-biased. The number ratio looks at how many accounts are on the long side, not which side has heavier combined positions. The spot market also dropped about 1.4% in the last 24 hours. Just looking at the number ratio, it cannot be concluded that the bulls have already stabilized the market.
$DOGE $APP Is the high cash flow driven by advertising efficiency or industry tailwinds?
AppLovin's latest quarter disclosed about $1.4 billion in free cash flow. The more stable the advertiser returns, the more likely budgets will stay on the platform, but seasonality and client concentration can amplify single-quarter figures. If reinvestment and cash conversion remain during the off-season, efficiency improvements are more credible. If budget withdrawals coincide with rising traffic costs, growth projections need to be adjusted downward.$BTC is hovering around 75,700, with over 1 billion liquidations in 24 hours, mostly long positions, yet the funding rate stubbornly refuses to turn negative, and Binance's long-short account ratio has even risen to 2.16. What’s buried is leverage, not faith, but ETFs saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion in November, the rebound lacks institutional support, and the whale buybacks are just enough to fill the gaps. $ETH is struggling at 2,244, the Glamsterdam upgrade testnet has been delayed again, ETFs had a single-day outflow of over 90 million, and the staking narrative can’t save the short term.
This week, the STAR 50 index in A-shares gained 7.95%, media led with 13.6%, and the CSI 1000 outperformed the CSI 300 by nearly four points. But banks and coal stocks closed lower against the trend; the gains are all sentiment-driven, not a broad bull market, as funds only bet on elasticity, not on heavyweight stocks.
The Nasdaq has fallen for four consecutive weeks on the weekly chart, down 3.37% cumulatively. Nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 have pushed December rate hike bets close to 80%, and Tuesday’s CPI will be the real test. Chip stocks bounced back on Friday, but that was an oversold rebound, not new money entering the market.
Each of the three markets follows its own fate; anyone trying to force a single framework will get hit.$ACT now looks more like a squeezed game phase rather than a comfortable rally phase. Are you also watching that batch of buried long positions? I reviewed the situation: ACT current price is 0.011768, up 13.41% in 24 hours, with a 15-minute high touching 0.012950 before sliding back down. KDJ is at a low level, short-term momentum is a bit exhausted, and the upper Bollinger Band is also pressing down. The most critical signal is in derivatives: total liquidations in 24 hours are 280,100, with short liquidations accounting for 55.5%. This rally is essentially shorts being squeezed out, not new longs actively entering. Looking at liquidation liquidity, about 125 million is below, only 30.06 million above, with the largest concentration near 0.01, which could be triggered by a 5.89% drop. In other words, short liquidation is basically complete, but there is a large chunk of long positions buried below, upward space is constrained, and the risk of downward spikes is actually greater. From the sector strength perspective, ACT's rebound looks more like an emotional repair rather than a signal of overall capital preference shifting to altcoins. There is also a bullish logic: selling pressure above is relatively light, as long as the 0.01 area holds, short covering can still provide a pulse. But note, the expectation for this rise has already been priced in, so those chasing highs are catching the tail end of the squeeze, not the starting point. If BTC and ETH risk appetite declines, small caps like ACT are more likely to be pulled out of rhythm first. My judgment is: this phase is a mix of shakeout and game, not a rally phase. If you want to buy, beware of downward spikes; if you want to sell, you can wait for a rebound #US Military Expands Blockade on Iran, Disagreements Persist Over Reopening of Hormuz
The US military has launched a new round of strikes against Iran and has specially formed the "Iron Gate" task force, extending the blockade from the sea to land and the Caspian Sea, significantly intensifying the blockade.
On one hand, there is continuous military pressure; on the other, diplomatic negotiations are progressing simultaneously. The US side does not rule out military options, while Iran demands sanctions be lifted first. There are major disagreements between the two sides regarding navigation and blockade conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, with intermediaries like Qatar continuing to mediate.
Many people's first reaction is to go long on crude oil and simultaneously speculate on Bitcoin's safe-haven rally. But it is important to note that recent Middle East conflicts have changed the market's feedback:
Currently, capital prioritizes pricing in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations; geopolitical news mostly causes short-term pulses and rarely leads to sustained trends. Oil price premiums fluctuate repeatedly with negotiation news, and risk assets like $BTC and $ETH often get pushed back by liquidity pressures after surging.
Simply put: conflict escalation can trigger a wave of sentiment, but don't treat it as a main trend. Going forward, focus on two points—the actual obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and whether oil prices will continue to strengthen. Without a real supply cutoff, this is mostly short-term sentiment speculation; avoid heavy positions chasing news. The non-farm data disappointment didn't cause a crash, but after the sideways deadlock over the weekend, could there suddenly be a waterfall tonight?
I'm on the bearish side watching, and the current calm doesn't look like a shift to strength, but more like a brief equilibrium after a decline. After the stronger-than-expected non-farm data, the market first fell then recovered, but BTC is currently at 75,882.90 USDT, down 0.20% in 24 hours; ETH is at 2,234.60 USDT, down 0.49% in 24 hours. Neither has escaped a weak structure: BTC's daily MACD is still a death cross with a super trend downward; ETH retains a short-term MACD golden cross but remains in a bearish moving average alignment and a downward super trend.
More importantly, the volume. BTC's daily volume is only 0.19 times the 7-day average, ETH only 0.11 times. This narrow sideways trading over the weekend indicates bulls haven't launched an active attack, and bears haven't continued to apply pressure; once liquidity returns, the previously compressed volatility could be quickly released.
ZEC had an independent rally earlier but is now at 1,260.53 USDT, down 3.75% in 24 hours, having clearly retraced after the spike, with capital flow turning to net outflow. It still maintains a bullish moving average alignment but hasn't escaped the downward super trend pressure. My bearish scenario isn't a definite call for a waterfall but a watch: if major coins break below the weekend balance on volume, ZEC's catch-up decline pressure could amplify simultaneously; if volume returns and it reclaims the mid-term moving averages, the bearish thesis needs to be reconsidered. $BTC dropped to around 75,700, with over 1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, longs dominating, yet the funding rate stubbornly stayed positive, and Binance's long-short account ratio even rose to 2.16. What’s buried is leverage, not faith, but ETFs ran off 1.28 billion in November, no one caught the rebound, and the whale's replenishment volume barely fills a gap.
$ETH is in a bind, with 45.2 million staked, 1.37 million queued to enter waiting 24 days, yields diluted to 2.2% and still stuck. But ETFs saw a net outflow of over 1.2 billion in October, ETH/BTC clings to three-month lows, on-chain locked coins and traditional withdrawal channels each telling their own story.
The A-share market today had 100 stocks hitting the daily limit, turnover of 1.78 trillion, AI manga dramas batch at 20CM, but banks and coal stocks bucked the trend and closed in the red, rotation is as fast as flipping pages.
The US Nasdaq has fallen for four consecutive weeks, nonfarm payrolls pushed December rate hike bets close to 80%, and Tuesday's CPI is the real deal.
Each of the three markets goes its own way; anyone forcing a single logic will lose out.Recently, option traders' bets have been diverging, with the trading structures of Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) sending different signals. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin option call volume accounted for 54.00%, puts 46.00%, slightly favoring the bulls overall, but the bullish strength is not strong. Ethereum ($ETH) has clearly shifted to defense, with put option volume reaching 55.90% and calls only 44.10%, indicating short-term funds have turned bearish. Each asset has a key pain point price: 84000 for Bitcoin and 2800 for Ethereum, both above current prices, which will exert upward pull near expiration. However, the nominal bet sizes differ greatly, with Bitcoin's nominal scale reaching 660 million and Ethereum only 72.88 million, indicating the focus of speculation is concentrated on Bitcoin. This structure is worth noting. Bitcoin's call share barely exceeds half, not indicating a large influx of funds; Ethereum's put share means many traders have already positioned for downside risk. Although overall open interest still leans bullish, funds are quietly hedging, showing strong defensive intent despite optimism. It should be noted that the pain point is only a reference level, not a solid support. If Bitcoin's 84000 magnet price fails to attract buyers and funds continue flowing into put contracts, the subsequent market volatility could be further amplified. Nonfarm payrolls night clashes with SanDisk breakdown, oversold rebound possible, but it's too early to talk about a reversal
Dear shareholders, tonight at 21:30 is the nonfarm payrolls release. $SNDK hit a low last night breaking below 800 (reaching 793.7), now pulling back near 880, with extremely volatile intraday swings.
Let's talk about nonfarm first. The market expects an increase of only 60,000, but the ADP and ISM data from the past two days were actually not weak. Don't treat tonight's nonfarm as a signal for rate cuts—the data being too weak will first trigger hard landing panic; if the data is too strong, it will directly raise rate hike expectations, causing US Treasury yields to spike and Nasdaq and crypto markets to get hammered. Tonight will most likely be a meat grinder with spikes up and down.
Now about SanDisk. Why did it break below 800? Because of the Nasdaq plunge, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crash, and concerns about tighter AI regulation after the Democrats took both houses, dragging the whole sector down. SanDisk's Q1 earnings were actually very strong (revenue 11 billion, EPS 49.51 beating expectations), completely dragged down by macro sentiment overreaction.
My judgment: oversold pullback can be watched, but definitely don't treat it as a reversal.
The MA lines above are still diverging downward, and trend pressure remains heavy. The real mid-term turning point is the 1-for-8 stock split on November 19; before that, any sentiment recovery can only be considered a rebound, not a reversal.
With nonfarm landing tonight, I will stay put in my live trades and not catch a falling knife. No matter how much rebound there is, I won't go heavy without seeing a right-side stable candlestick. This is not investment advice. Shareholders, do you think 800 can hold tonight? #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ Looking at the latest lending data, one thing is becoming increasingly concerning: leveraged long positions are heavily dominating the market. $BTC longs borrowed 1,864.85 coins, compared with just 50.9 coins on the short side. $ETH long borrowing reached 17,600 coins, while both long and lending activity in $SOL continue to increase. This imbalance raises an important risk. When too many traders position themselves in the same direction, even a relatively small price correction can trigger cCircle's Q3 report and Stripe stablecoin payments are heating up on Orbit.
Circle officially disclosed that in Q3, USDC on-chain transaction volume reached $13.9 trillion, a 49% year-over-year increase, with total revenue and reserve income of $865 million, up 17% year-over-year. Guotai Haitong Overseas Technology said revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but part of the other income came from ARC pre-sales, so daily settlements are not as full as the books show.
Simply put, stablecoins are more like becoming a payment collection channel. The West Securities computer team wrote that AI Agent payments are often counted in cents per transaction and can reach thousands per day. Traditional card organizations charging per transaction are not very cost-effective in this scenario. Friends connecting with US clients or making agent tools can ask if the other party can use Stripe to send USDC to wallets. Official documentation states the receiving end covers over 160 markets, usually settling in minutes, and small cross-border payments can save on wire transfer costs.
Currently, I am more focused on how to use this channel to save fees; no matter how good the numbers look, I don't take it as a direction. Friends handling overseas orders, can your clients pay with stablecoins now?
Just my opinion
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% I've never understood one thing: why would someone hold a short position losing 20 million and not close it?
This whale is exactly that. $HYPE short position floating loss of 20.91 million USD, I would have cut losses long ago. But he doesn't stop because there's one line — accumulated funding fees collected of 4.66 million.
Oh, turns out he's not betting on direction, he's collecting overnight fees. The longs pay daily to keep his short position alive; if the price doesn't rise, he just takes it for free.
By the way, those two short positions on $BTC and $ETH also made a profit. This guy knows something, but unfortunately, I only get anxious watching the floating losses in my account.In this cycle, if we take the low point of 57,809 on July 1, 2026, as the lowest starting point of the bull market, and the highest point of 87,399 on September 21, 2026, the maximum increase is +51%, lasting 82 days.
During this phase, the BTC price did not experience a correction exceeding -10%. The continuous decline starting in October can be considered the first correction exceeding -10% in this cycle, reaching the lowest point of 74,888 on November 6, 2026, with a maximum correction of -14.31%.
Comparing with the correction data from the previous cycle and considering the current market sentiment cycle, here is a bold speculation:
1. The Nasdaq 100 in the US stock market retraced from the high of 31,616.50 on October 7 to the low of 26,366.50 on October 6, a correction of -16.60%, which is greater than BTC's correction. Theoretically, BTC's volatility should be greater, but this time BTC's correction was not significant, indicating BTC is still relatively strong.
2. The US stock market is currently falling from a high with no signs of bottoming out, and the trend is continuous. BTC most likely has not bottomed out and probably has room to decline further.
3. According to the comparison with the previous cycle's data, if this correction subsequently falls to 71,385, a retracement of -18.3% from the peak, or to 69,919, a retracement of -20% from the peak, these might be good support levels.
[Bold speculation, does not constitute any investment advice.] One address earned 2.14 million USD in 24 hours, climbing to fourth place on the Hyperliquid profit leaderboard. What's interesting is not how much was earned, but that it was all from short positions.
First, look at the fundamentals. Address 0x45d2…4029 has a net worth of about 65.08 million, with a historical cumulative profit of 64.85 million—almost equal to the current balance, indicating this is a machine for repeated compounding.
Next, look at the positions. Shorting about 436 $BTC, nominal 33.09 million, 20x leverage, unrealized profit 479,000; shorting about 13,950 $ETH, nominal 31.19 million, also 20x leverage, unrealized profit 2.9 million. The direction and leverage are consistent, not hedging but a one-sided bet on a decline.
What’s worth noting is the third position. Shorting 4.3308 million $HYPE, 10x leverage, unrealized loss 20.91 million. But on the same line, there’s a note: cumulative funding fees collected about 4.66 million USD.
Putting these two sentences together reveals the truth. This short position isn’t a wrong directional bet; it’s collecting rent. Low leverage, distant liquidation line, the unrealized loss is bearable; positive funding fees indicate longs are paying to hold. Shorts on PUMP, DOGE, XRP also have unrealized profits.
So this address doesn’t represent a "whale bearish" stance, but a strategy: correct direction, collecting funding fees as rent, full position in one direction. If one day HYPE’s funding fees turn negative while the price still rises, this machine will switch from collecting rent to paying rent. $BTC hovered around 75,800 for a whole day, with a fear and greed index of 32, and no one dared to move. The entire network liquidations exceeded 90 million, with XRP liquidations surpassing those of BTC and ETH. Altcoins' weekend liquidity dried up, revealing their true nature. After the core PCE landed at 3.1%, BTC touched 81,500, but then retracted over the weekend; the negative news has been digested, but no money has flowed in.
This week, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 in the A-shares market gained 7.95%, with media leading at 13.6%. The CSI 1000 outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by nearly four points, as funds bet only on elasticity, not on weight. Today, 100 stocks hit the daily limit with a turnover of 1.78 trillion, but banks and coal stocks closed down against the trend; the gains are all sentiment-driven, not a broad bull market.
On Friday, the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, but still fell 3.37% for the week, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hammered down 12% for the week, while the Dow was the only green. Nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 pushed the probability of a rate hike next month to 70%. Chip stocks rebounded but don't mistake it for a reversal. $ETH hovered around 2,230, with staking stories ongoing, but the price just doesn't follow.$LRCX has a large buyback authorization; when will it affect earnings per share?
Lam Research added a $25 billion buyback authorization on November 5. Whether earnings per share will benefit depends on the net change in shares outstanding after deducting stock-based compensation from the actual buyback volume. If cash flow is stable and the share count continues to decline, the buyback support is clearer. If a weakening cycle causes execution to slow, the short-term impact of the authorization amount is limited.The market was very quiet this weekend, which was expected. BTC has been stuck around 75,000 for two whole days, and now everyone is waiting for Tuesday's CPI release.
$BTC short-term holders' cost and moving averages are right below, RSI hasn't reached the oversold zone yet, repeatedly testing support within a narrow range, and any rebound is immediately suppressed. Moreover, slow money is starting to exit; spot BTC ETF funds have turned negative for the year, with a large amount of capital fleeing, leaving only a small number of targets still seeing net inflows.
In comparison, $ETH is the weakest among the three, with continuous ETF redemptions, the ETH/BTC ratio steadily declining, and high beta now only having downward elasticity. If 2240 can't be reclaimed, I remain bearish.
$SOL is stuck around 89; the impact of the previously canceled offline events hasn't completely dissipated yet. At this stage, it is more of a passive follow-down rather than a fundamental problem. I plan to wait until after the non-farm payrolls and CPI to see if a rebound can occur.
Holding 75,000 before the CPI release at most means no loss; once it breaks, the real market will begin. We've been betting for so long—now that the data is out, do you think the bulls still have a chance to turn things around? There are just over ten hours left until the weekly close (Beijing time Monday 8 AM), with $BTC around 75,900 on OKX. This week opened at 77,982, surged to 81,200 midweek, then dropped to 74,888, likely closing with a long upper shadow bearish candle. I'm watching three numbers:
74,888, this week's low. The weekend lows were 75,395 and 75,569, neither touching it again, so selling pressure is temporarily not urgent.
76,265, last week's low, now acting as resistance; the price touched just above 76,000 twice over the weekend but failed to hold.
Funding rate around 0.002%, basically zero, neither bulls nor bears dare to leverage.
My judgment: Weekend volume is too thin, OKX spot BTC traded only about 1,650 coins in 24 hours, just one-seventh of Thursday and Friday's single-day volume, so the candle formed with this volume is of limited reference. The real direction will be set by ETF funds after the US stock market opens on Monday: last week spot ETF net outflow was about $1.28 billion, with IBIT alone accounting for about $1.2 billion. If this gap isn't closed, the rebound will struggle to go far.
Risk points: If the weekly close is below 75,000, the probability of retesting 74,888 or even lower next week significantly increases; only if it closes back above 76,265 can it be considered somewhat stable.
Where do you think this weekly candle will close? Which price level will you watch first next week? Currently fluctuating around 76,000, ETF outflows for two consecutive days (410 million today), are institutions also exiting? But on-chain net outflow is 2,300 coins, exchange reserves at 2.82 million, chips haven't been dumped. Liquidations at 55 million are much milder than 1.2 billion two days ago, long-short ratio is 3.1, bulls still dominant but fee rate is extremely low.
Futures at 42 billion overwhelmingly surpass spot at 7.3 billion, clearly derivatives are leading. Technical levels: 74,800 as the bottom line, 75,500 for consolidation, 76,800 resistance.
The bull's quick return has turned into bottom consolidation; at this position, shorting risks a rebound, going long risks a new low, it's really tough. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 USDT "Returns Home": The Stablecoin Shift on Bitcoin Mainnet
USDT is set to "return home" on November 28 — officially returning to the Bitcoin mainnet. This is not a simple revisit but a technical reconstruction based on the RGB protocol.
Looking back, USDT was born on Bitcoin's Omni layer in 2014, later migrating to Ethereum and Tron due to performance bottlenecks. This return marks a technological leap by Tether through the RGB protocol: transaction details are processed off-chain, with only proofs anchored on the Bitcoin mainnet. This means USDT inherits Bitcoin's highest security level while gaining privacy protection and high scalability.
Currently, exchanges and market makers have completed minting and redemption verification on the testnet. With the Lightning Network integration planned for 2027, Bitcoin will no longer be just a store of value but will become the core infrastructure for everyday payments and stablecoin circulation. This is not only USDT's return but also an evolution of the Bitcoin financial ecosystem.#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Brothers, BTC and ETH are consolidating with low volume above 75,000, but the oversold signal is fully triggered, while the ETF ledger is still bleeding
$BTC $75,850 |$ETH $2,234
Bitcoin is repeatedly contested in the 75,500-76,300 range, and Ethereum is struggling around 2,234. The entire network saw $54.46 million liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for $42 million; the bulls are still being slowly bled out.
Oversold to the extreme. BTC's RSI(6) is only 23, ETH even lower at 18.63, but prices refuse to collapse further. This is a typical exhaustion of bearish momentum, not panic acceleration. The 2,200-2,240 range for ETH converges Fibonacci retracement and long-term moving averages, serving as the intersection of this wave of bullish and bearish beliefs.
But ETF funds are still running. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, the largest single-week outflow since June, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing $1.21 billion. Ethereum ETFs lost $365 million in the same period, with ETHA leading redemptions. Funds are watching, not entering.
One on-chain detail worth noting: ETH exchange balances have dropped to about 14.5 million coins, a ten-year low, with immediately sellable chips continuously shrinking.
Technically, BTC's 75,000 is the midpoint of the box; a break below targets 73,000. ETH must hold 2,200 to have room for recovery.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Beyond the Clamor: When AI Deflates Its Bubble, the Real Framework Emerges
A piece of news drowned in market panic might be more worth investigating than the screen full of noise about the "AI bubble burst": Apple's research team revealed that its robot autonomous control system HALO directly calls Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen model, validated on the Unitree G1 robot, achieving an astonishing average success rate of 91% in single-task tests.
What is the market panicking about this week? Possibly astronomical investments in data centers that might be lost, rumors of Microsoft canceling orders, and the tightening and squeezing of financing chains. However, this inconspicuous news tells another parallel reality: the part of AI that can truly be implemented and "get work done" has never stopped moving forward.
This is exactly the point I have always emphasized—the current market deleveraging is clearing out those blindly squandered capital expenditures that ultimately go down the drain, not the AI technology itself. Bubble and trend have always been two different things. When you press the short button, you must clearly distinguish whether you are targeting an inflated valuation bubble or an irreversible technological trend. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期
AI giant Anthropic is still proceeding with its planned November IPO, but market expectations have clearly cooled. Earlier, the market optimistically valued it at $2 trillion; after a round of tech stock declines, institutions have lowered their expectations, with the current negotiation range falling to $1.2–1.5 trillion, and pessimistic estimates dropping to $1.1 trillion.
The core pressures come from three points: collective sell-off in the AI sector, high interest rates raising computing costs, combined with expectations of stricter regulation after the midterm elections. The company continues large capital expenditures, with an uncertain profit realization cycle, prompting institutions to demand discounts.
This IPO is a current barometer for the AI sector. If pricing falls short of expectations or the stock drops below the IPO price after listing, it will further suppress valuations across the AI track; if it goes smoothly, it can short-term restore sector sentiment.
Now is not the time to bet early; focus on the roadshow pricing and capital reception on the first day of listing. The AI market has moved from blind optimism to a valuation verification phase.The truth about selling pressure under data lag
After data completion, this week's selling pressure is heavier than early tables showed. On November 6, the net outflow of US BTC spot ETFs totaled about $412 million; from November 2 to 6, the weekly net outflow was about $1.282 billion. On Friday, IBIT alone saw an outflow of about $403 million. Some previous statistics had not yet recorded this capital, so it was indeed easy to underestimate the pressure when seeing preliminary numbers.
This is also why I have been paying more attention to data update times recently. The market moves fast, and table backfilling can change judgments. Comforting yourself with incomplete data by thinking "institutions have mostly sold" can easily lead to being caught off guard by updated numbers later.
The most pressing question now is: with such large continuous redemptions, what kind of new buying interest is needed to absorb it? Retail sentiment can turn positive overnight, but the funds that can truly absorb selling pressure continuously are usually not so easy to identify. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC brothers, this is not trading coins, this is playing with stablecoins!
Bitcoin hovered around 75,800 all weekend, fluctuating less than 0.1% in 24 hours, with trading volume shrinking like a ghost. You stare at the chart for a long time, thinking your network is lagging, refresh it, and the price hasn't even moved a decimal point.
Why is it so flat? Last Friday's non-farm payrolls completely blew the market's mind. New jobs came in at 165,000, while expectations were just over 60,000, nearly triple. The dream of a rate cut shattered, and the probability of a rate hike in December soared back to 70-80%. Plus, ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion in one week, turning the year-to-date net inflow into negative. Institutions are withdrawing, macro policies are tightening, and the money in the market is all shrinking into corners, afraid to move. Who dares to ignite the market at this critical moment?
The only consolation now is that the 75,000 barrier still hasn't been broken. The 77k-78k range is full of trapped souls; without volume release, all rebounds can only be called corrections, not reversals.
I'll put it this way: Monday's US stock market open is the real judgment moment. Last week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12% in one day, SanDisk fell nearly 20%, and the semiconductor storage sector's troubles aren't over yet. AI earnings and CPI reports are coming this week to add more pressure. If the US stock market continues to limp tomorrow night, the 75,000 cover will most likely be torn off. The calm over the weekend is the last illusion before the storm; don't be fooled by this dead fish line into thinking all is well.
If you're itching to bet on a direction, first ask yourself if you can withstand the spike at Monday's open. Control your hands and watch the show. Seeing this new regulation in Russia, my first reaction was: $3,700 a year, is this for retail investors to open accounts, or just a trial card?
Starting November 17, $BTC, $ETH, and $USDT can be legally bought in Russia, sounds big. Looking closely at the limit: non-qualified investors get 300,000 rubles per institution per year, about $3,700. This quota isn’t even enough to buy half a Bitcoin.
What’s even funnier are the next two points. Everyone has to pass an exam before trading; if you fail, you can’t buy. Peer-to-peer transfers between individuals will be banned outright starting July 1, 2027.
The Moscow Exchange is quite proactive, opening on December 1. Retail investors get $3,700 a year, institutions have no limit, think about that.In the last bull market cycle of BTC, the spot price bottomed on November 21, 2022, at a low of 15,450, then entered a bull market uptrend cycle, reaching a peak of 126,200 on October 7, 2025, with an overall increase of +717% over 1,051 days.
During this bull market cycle, after the coin price reached a new stage high, there were 6 corrections exceeding -20%, including two corrections exceeding -30%, both occurring in the late stage of the bull market.
For example, on March 14, 2024, driven by speculation on BTC halving expectations and institutional funds entering BTC spot ETFs with real money, BTC price once broke through the 2021 bull market peak to reach 73,787. Subsequently, the price consolidated at a high level. Negative news such as the German government selling BTC and the flash crash of the US stock market on August 5 caused BTC price to pull back to the low of 48,935 on August 5, 2024, with a maximum correction of -33.7%.
[Note: From the peak price of 73,787 on March 14, 2024, to the peak of 126,200 on October 7, 2025, the new high only increased by +71% over the following one and a half years.]
On January 20, 2025, due to the election of Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, BTC price once rose to 109,800. Later, due to the realization of positive factors and the negative impact of the tariff war, BTC price once retreated to the low of 74,502 on April 7, 2025, with a correction of -32.7% The Russian central bank has now set the rules in stone, effective November 17. It looks like "opening up," but it's actually drawing a circle.
First layer, who can participate. Licensed entities including brokerages, asset management institutions, and crypto trading service providers are allowed entry. The Moscow Exchange is scheduled to launch crypto trading on December 1. Trading moves from over-the-counter to exchange matching, with price discovery rights and liquidity integrated into the official system.
Second layer, who can buy and how much. Non-qualified investors can buy up to 300,000 rubles per year through each intermediary, about 3,700 USD; qualified investors have no limits. Ordinary people can enter but cannot hold large positions. 3,700 USD a year can't even buy one $BTC, only a small allocation.
Third layer, how the entry is controlled. All investors must pass a mandatory test before trading. This threshold does not set a capital requirement but a knowledge requirement.
The fourth layer is the harshest: peer-to-peer trading between individuals will be banned starting July 1, 2027. The old path for retail investors to privately exchange U (USDT) has a clear termination date; trading must go through licensed platforms.
Putting these four layers together, this is not deregulation but packaging scattered OTC demand into measurable containers: small quotas limit amounts, tests limit knowledge, and the P2P ban limits exit.
$BTC and $ETH should be viewed separately. The opening of compliant channels is a slow variable; institutional clearing and custody will be implemented first, while retail funds, due to small quotas, are unlikely to form significant buying pressure in the short term. $USDT is actually more critical; the rules explicitly allow trading it, effectively recognizing stablecoins' settlement function.Family, this week's data is really a bit counterintuitive 🔥
October nonfarm payrolls +165,000, expected just over 60,000; unemployment rate 4.1%; August and September were revised up by a total of 84,000.
Normally, this would be good news.
But this week is different: after the data came out, the probability of a December rate hike went up, and the 10-year US Treasury closed at 4.85%.
So what happened?
On Friday, the Nasdaq actually rose 1.1%, $NVDAB Nvidia +3.6%.
And on Thursday, it just experienced the worst drop since “Liberation Day.”
My feeling is: the market seems more afraid of the AI story breaking than of the Fed hiking once more.
This weekend I want to figure out one thing: if there really is a rate hike in December, which segment will be hit first? Computing power, cloud, or software?
Industry-savvy sisters/brothers, let's chat in the comments, looking for some insight 👀
Data: BLS, AP. Not investment advice.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC has dropped back from $80,400 to $75,600. The market looks cold, but the trading volume hasn't cooled down to the level before the August rally!
Glassnode data shows: as of the November 4 report, the 7-day average trading volume combining spot exchanges and the US BTC spot ETF, although down from its peak, is still about 1.5 times the level before the July-August breakout. The previous roughly 10% pullback didn't revert trading activity to its original state.
High trading volume only indicates that people are trading; it doesn't mean buyers dominate. Some are taking positions, but it could also mean others are more eager to sell. Moreover, the report shows nearly $1 billion net outflow from ETFs in the past two weeks. Now that BTC has dropped to $75,600, the real test begins!
$75,700 is the cost basis for short-term holders, around $75,800 is the 50-week moving average, and the true market average of $77,700 has temporarily been lost. Whether the $73,000–$76,000 range can form effective support will directly impact the subsequent structure.
I still view this movement as a complex pullback in the early stage of a bull market, but we can't give the market a free pass based on cycle judgment. What needs to be verified next is not whether there is still trading volume, but whether buyers can truly absorb the selling pressure!"$QCOM Can automotive chips reduce the impact of the mobile phone cycle?
Qualcomm's latest quarterly automotive business revenue has reached $2 billion for the first time. Mass production of targeted projects helps smooth out terminal fluctuations, but the speed of realization depends on automakers' production scheduling and model penetration rates. If automotive growth offsets the decline in mobile phones and gross margin remains stable, the diversification effect is stronger. If the incremental volume is concentrated in a few models, revenue expectations need to have a margin.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is set to be released this week (November 10). Combining current institutional forecasts, the Cleveland Fed model, and market dynamics, here is an overview:
1. Mainstream Market Forecasts
Overall CPI (YoY): The market generally expects the overall CPI for October to remain steady at around 3.7% year-over-year (the same as September); month-over-month forecasts generally slow to between 0.2% and 0.24% (significantly lower than the 0.6% peak in September).
Core CPI (YoY/MoM): Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to grow about 0.21%–0.24% month-over-month, with year-over-year estimates holding in a moderate range of 2.48%–2.6%.
2. Key Observations
Slowing Month-over-Month Inflation Momentum: After the rebound in September caused by energy and some short-term factors, the price increases for goods and services in October are expected to show marginal improvement, aligning with the broader trend of easing inflation stickiness.
Fed Policy Direction Indicator: Recently, due to strong macroeconomic data resilience, the market is highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path. If the October CPI confirms inflation cooling as expected, it will effectively ease previous market fears of further aggressive tightening; conversely, if the data unexpectedly comes in high, it will increase pressure on the central bank to maintain high interest rates or even tighten again.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $BTC The Democratic Party only won Congress, not the presidency, and they didn't win all the seats either. It's basically impossible to pass legislation; they simply don't have enough votes, let alone impeach the president. Most likely, the two parties will cooperate going forward. If they mess things up, Americans won't have a good time these next two years. The 2028 election is still solidly in the Republican camp, so what is there to worry about? Boldly buy the dip How long does it take for the market to recover after an exchange hack?
The FTX incident wasn’t a hack but misappropriation plus bankruptcy, which caused confidence to collapse directly. The industry took more than a year to slowly recover.
Bybit was hacked for about $1.5 billion in 2025. The platform quickly covered the losses, and liquidity recovered in about 30 days, but the price continued to decline for about 45 days before hitting bottom.
Binance’s case was even more severe, with $6.3 billion stolen. However, because it immediately promised full compensation and even bought coins to cover the gap itself, the price only dropped about 4% before bouncing back.
What really indicates the bottom? Watch closely whether net capital inflow to exchanges has reversed and whether ETFs are still continuously flowing out. $BTC There is an issue with Keplr; some people found their coins missing after opening their wallets, even though they did not initiate any transfers. This is really alarming.
Keplr has confirmed that some wallets created via Google/Apple have conducted unauthorized transactions and has temporarily blocked logins. They are currently working with Web3Auth to investigate the matter.
If you are using such wallets, please do not deposit or transfer funds to other wallets. Beware of scammers claiming they can help you recover your funds.I don't understand why you don't buy USDG wealth management? A stable 6.67% yield, which can reach 13.84% after cycling. This is Old Xu @star_okx giving everyone money, zero risk, but the quota is too small, too small.
A simple analysis:
- This is the only cyclic loan wealth management officially promoted by OKX, so you know its value.
- The biggest risk of cyclic loans is the USDG price, so OKX directly fixed it at 1 at the underlying level. So even if USDG goes to zero, your cyclic loan won't be liquidated (such a great person).
- The quota is too small, relying on 48 million USD, but after cycling 10 times, the principal can only accommodate about 5 million USD in essence.
The question is, why does Old Xu do this?
To promote XLayer. Using cyclic loans to enter DeFi has been verified countless times as the best path. If USDG goes smoothly, there should be more wealth management opportunities in the future.
I hope USDG can be renewed after maturity 😁 so I can go all in. I missed the last time and only tested with a small amount.In this new update from Oklo, the date I care about most is 2030.
The company has signed a manufacturing cooperation agreement with U.S. Forged Rings to reserve production capacity for large reactor components needed for the future Aurora project, with the first batch of finished products planned for delivery starting in 2030. This arrangement is aimed at subsequent deployments and is separate from the procurement and construction work already underway for the first project in Idaho.
Reading this, the timeline for nuclear power commercialization becomes much more concrete. AI computing power demand can grow rapidly within a quarter, but manufacturing large equipment requires years of advance planning. Design, processing, inspection, and transportation—each step has its own cycle.
I think locking in production capacity early is a commendable move. To continuously deliver power plants, you have to address potential manufacturing bottlenecks now, not wait until customers urgently need electricity to find suppliers.
But when looking at the stock price, you also have to align it with the timeline: a capacity agreement aimed at the future helps assess the company’s long-term readiness but cannot be used to fill current power generation revenue.
Nuclear power topics easily excite people, especially when electricity demand is strong. I prefer to track item by item which equipment starts manufacturing, which permits are approved, and which milestones are completed as planned. Progress can be slow, but it must be concrete. Reflecting commercial goals years ahead in the price and then waiting through the process will really test patience.
#Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注 Wall Street's olive branch fails to stop HYPE's pullback: profit-taking and regulatory clouds loom over Hyperliquid's HYPE token, which seemed to have perfect timing and favorable conditions: a strategic partnership with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller joining in, and a wave of institutional interest pushing its price near the $97 all-time high. However, since October 30, HYPE has dropped about 19.6%, leaving investors wondering: why did the rally suddenly stall? Anatomy of the pullback This sell-off is not due to deteriorating fundamentals but results from timing and market mechanisms working together. On-chain data shows that whale addresses and venture capital giants like a16z and Paradigm have been actively taking profits. These early investors are now cashing out gains, creating significant selling pressure. Profit-taking is a natural part of the price discovery process for any maturing asset, but when it coincides with frenzied headlines, it can still feel abrupt. Adding to the pressure is anxiety over the upcoming token unlocks. The Hyperliquid team and early supporters will receive more tokens, and the market is preemptively pricing in dilution effects. This is a common pattern in crypto: expectations of increased supply often trigger a risk-off phase, even if the long-term logic remains intact. Regulatory and political uncertainty Although the ICE partnership is a strong vote of confidence, it still requires approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Until regulatory green lights are obtained, this partnership remains a commitment rather than a full realization Poor NBIS has been mistakenly sold off again
In the past two days, the Neocloud sector has collectively dropped about 10% due to Texas flipping blue and the new governor threatening to halt data center construction. The market is pricing all new cloud providers with a "one-size-fits-all" approach, and the poor $NBIS (Nebius) has been mistakenly sold off again.
The core fact is: $NBIS has zero capacity in Texas—no projects online, under construction, or planned.
Its U.S. pipeline is mainly distributed in:
☞ Independence, Missouri: 1.2GW.
☞ Pennsylvania: up to 1.2GW
☞ Birmingham, Alabama: 300MW
☞ Vineland, New Jersey: 300MW
More importantly, it is currently one of the few Neoclouds with real operational capabilities in Europe, with deployments in Finland, France, the UK, Iceland, Israel, Spain, and other locations. If U.S. policies on data centers continue to tighten, this multinational diversification itself is a natural hedge.
Texas accounts for about 27% of the planned data center capacity in the U.S. If a substantial halt occurs, overall new supply will be compressed. Against the backdrop of strong AI computing power demand, every megawatt online will become more valuable. For companies with no Texas exposure and clear pipelines in other regions, this could actually be a future positive.
#NebiusAI云业务高速增长迎来财报检验 First, a bit of cold water: I usually look at risks first, but this news alone is not enough to support the judgment that "crypto regulation is about to completely reverse." Odaily relayed qinbafrank's view: If Warren takes charge of the Senate Banking Committee, she might push for stricter crypto legislation and strengthen scrutiny through investigations and hearings. The "if" here cannot be omitted; she has not yet assumed the chair position because of this news.
I think there are two points that are most easily misread. One is equating scrutiny pressure with the enactment of legislation; comprehensive tightening still faces two constraints: the Senate's 60-vote threshold to block proceedings and the president's veto power. A tough stance does not equal policy passage. The second is treating supervisory power as a policy cancellation button; policies advanced by the SEC and CFTC within their existing authority will not automatically become invalid. But don't get excited too quickly—slowing progress, narrowing exemptions, and blocking committee nominations can also raise uncertainty costs for companies, but this is not the same as a complete shutdown.
Of course, those worried might also be right. If she really takes office and scrutiny continues to translate into nomination blockages and policy delays, then I would raise my assessment of regulatory risk. My guess is that the corporate side might feel the pressure earlier than ordinary users. What I will watch next is whether the process gets stuck, and I won't take tough statements directly as policy conclusions. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ $BTC is stuck oscillating at 75,969, with the upper Bollinger band pressing at 79,913 and the lower band supporting at 73,305. The CPI midweek is all about liquidation clusters; whichever side gets hit first will hurt [reference:0].
$ETH is very conflicted; the staking queue has 1.37 million tokens waiting 24 days, and yields have been diluted to 2.2%, yet demand to enter remains blocked.
However, ETFs ran off more than 1.2 billion in October, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is clinging to a three-month low, and on-chain locked tokens and traditional withdrawal channels each tell their own story.
The A-share STAR 50 index gained 7.95% in a week, media stocks were even stronger at 13.6%, but all the money is flowing into the CSI 1000, while the CSI 300 only rose 1.72%, clearly betting on elasticity rather than weighting.
US nonfarm payrolls exploded, pushing the probability of a rate hike to 78%. On Friday, chip stocks reversed and the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, but the whole week still fell 3.4%. Don't mistake an oversold rebound for a reversal.
Now the three markets are each moving on their own; anyone trying to force a single framework will suffer.ETH overall follows the mainstream market's fluctuations, showing more resilience than high Beta altcoins, but it has not yet formed a strong upward momentum. The core logic of Ethereum remains on-chain assets, stablecoins, DeFi, and institutional applications, though funds are watching ETF flows, network activity, and ecosystem capital inflows. Recently, there has been a significant net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs, disturbing risk appetite, and ETH is also hard to completely escape the influence of the broader market. In the short term, it seems more like waiting for macro sentiment and capital flows to provide a new direction. $ETHXRP continues to fluctuate around the payment narrative and regulatory expectations, with clear market divergence. On one side, there is long-term potential in cross-border payments and institutional cooperation; on the other, there is waiting for short-term catalysts to materialize. Current order book shows some support below, but the rebound is not strong, indicating that market sentiment remains cautious. Recent progress in US crypto regulatory rules has also brought more attention to payment and compliance narrative assets. Going forward, the key focus is whether trading volume can continue to recover. $XRPTRX's trend is relatively stable, reflecting the support of payment and stablecoin transfer demand for the on-chain fundamentals. TRON's long-term core advantages are low-cost transfers, stablecoin circulation, and mature on-chain application scenarios. Therefore, during market volatility, it tends to be more resilient than purely sentiment-driven assets. However, TRX's short-term explosive power is usually not outstanding; capital focuses more on on-chain transaction fees, stablecoin scale, and ecosystem activity. As long as these fundamentals remain stable, TRX is likely to follow a more defensive rhythm. $TRXOptions traders are splitting their bets, and the divergence between $BTC and $ETH is more telling than either headline number. Over the past 24 hours, bullish volume in Bitcoin options accounted for 54.00% of activity against 46.00% for bearish contracts — 7,896.46 BTC versus 6,725.33 BTC. That is a market still leaning long, but only just. Ethereum tells a sharper story: puts took 55.90% of volume at 128,689.05 ETH, while calls mustered 44.10% at 101,530.12 ETH. On the surface, positioning in Strategy holds 849,327 bitcoins at a cost basis of $75,451; some have already written off six years of hoarding as a total loss.
Spot price over the weekend was about $75,900, barely moving in 24 hours, hovering around the cost line. Saying six years were wasted is a bit much. Stocks definitely can't be closed out together: On Friday Eastern Time, it closed at $128.93, about 14.8% lower than the $151.29 on October 15, the day MSCI approved the new rules. The November review list came out Wednesday night; any adjustments would take effect after the close on November 30.
The list hasn't even been released yet, so hold off on the word "delisting" for now.
$MSTR #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% ADA continues its weak oscillation trend, representing a typical state of "narrative still present, but funds not sufficiently concentrated." The Cardano ecosystem has long-term highlights such as governance upgrades, DeFi, and privacy sidechains, but short-term funds tend to favor highly elastic new themes, causing ADA's attention to be easily diverted. There is some support at low levels, but the rebound strength is limited, indicating that bulls have not yet formed a consensus expectation. The subsequent ecosystem activity and on-chain fund inflow are key to observing the shift between strength and weakness. $ADA
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Good Sunday. Over the weekend, Bitcoin neither accelerated downward nor relieved pressure, consolidating narrowly between 75,500 and 76,400. Before Tuesday's CPI, this looks more like the market is waiting rather than having chosen a direction. Let's first review last week's capital flow: The US spot Bitcoin ETF had net inflows only on Wednesday during the five trading days last week, with a total net outflow of about $1.28 billion for the week, the largest since late June. Year-to-date, it has shifted from net inflows to net outflows of about $910 million. On Friday alone, the net outflow was about $410 million, with IBIT accounting for about $400 million. The Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of about $365 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of outflows. In the US stock market, the Nasdaq fell 3.37% last week, declining for four consecutive weeks, with the December rate hike priced in at about 80%. In summary: the trend has not been broken, and institutional funds have not returned. So what to focus on next: ETF capital flows. Whether the bleeding can be stopped will directly determine if the rebound has momentum. Monday: Asian market opening sentiment, whether semiconductors can continue last Friday's rebound, and Fed official Goolsbee's speech. Tuesday 11/10 21:30: US October CPI, the most important variable next week. After stronger nonfarm payrolls, the market is more sensitive to inflation. Also next week, earnings reports from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials; US Treasury market closed on 11/11, liquidity will be thin that day. Geopolitical and AI regulatory news: sentiment is sentiment, wait for the right level to see the reaction. Technicals: Bitcoin is currently at two levels$BTC is stuck oscillating at 75.9K, with the Bollinger upper band at 79.9K and lower band at 73.3K, while the CPI weekly settlement cluster waits on both sides [reference:0]. The ETF ran over 1.2 billion in October, but on-chain staking locked 45.2 million coins; the queue to enter takes 24 days, with two groups each telling their own story.
This week, the STAR 50 led the A-shares with nearly an 8% gain, and media surged 13.6% [reference:2]. However, on Friday, the STAR 50 sharply dropped 5.48%, while baijiu rose 5% against the trend; funds fled growth stocks and rushed into consumer defensive sectors, switching decisively [reference:3].
US nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 pushed the December rate hike bets to 80%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12% on Thursday, and chip stocks rebounded on Friday but the Dow still closed in the red. $ETH
The exchange rate is close to a three-month low, ETFs show no turnaround, and no matter how long the staking queue is, it can't support the price.
In this market, whoever believes in one logic gets hit.