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11.9 Monday Evening Xu Wen Big Cake Auntie's Thoughts
Price Performance: The current BTC price is about 74,492 USDT, down -2.02% in 24 hours. The 24-hour high is 76,063, the low is 73,385, with a large amplitude.
2. Short-term Trend: On the 15-minute level, the daytime price started a rebound from the bottom near 73,711, reaching a high of 75,074 before encountering resistance and falling back. It is currently in a phase of oscillating downward retest. The latest K-line is a long-bodied bearish candle, indicating strong short-term downward momentum.
3. Moving Average System (MA): MA5 (74,646) and MA10 (74,643) have formed a death cross and turned downward. The price is currently breaking below these two short-term moving averages and is testing the support of MA20 (74,443). The short-term shows a weak adjustment pattern.
4. News Disturbance: The scrolling bar at the top of the chart shows "Hut 8 sells about 3100 BTC," this institutional selling negative news tends to amplify market panic in the evening, suppressing the bulls.
Operation Idea: (Short on rebound highs)
BTC: Short under pressure in the 74,700-75,200 range, stop loss above 75,100, target: 73,700, break target: 73,300
ETH: Short under pressure in the 2,130-2,150 range, stop loss: 2,170, target: 2,190, break target: 2,080
$BTC $ETH #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 🚨 Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads — CPI data may determine the next move! ⚠️
After BTC broke below the 50-week moving average, the rebound still faces pressure. Currently, $73,204 is a key support level to watch, while $76,494 is an important resistance level that bulls must reclaim.
Key focus going forward:
📉 Bullish opportunity: If BTC retests $73,500 with strong buying, a cautious long position could target $75,860.
📈 Bearish risk: If the price encounters resistance near $76,494, it may fall back to the $74,500–$73,500 range.
🚀 Rebound confirmation: If BTC breaks above $76,494 with volume, it will be the first sign of a clear market strength shift.
⚠️ Downside risk: If $71,995 is lost, the price could further drop to $67,700.
The biggest market catalyst is the US CPI data release on November 10. Core CPI is especially important as it may influence market expectations and trigger short-term volatility.
My strategy is simple: no blind chasing, no heavy gambling, and no early directional predictions. Wait for clear market signals first.
Stay patient, manage risk, and let the market prove its direction.
NFA, DYOR.
#Bitcoin #OKXOrbit
#DailyOrbit 🚨 Crypto Market Sell-Off: $BTC & ETH Under Pressure!
$BTC dropped toward $73.5K, while $ETH fell near $2,050. BTC recovered slightly, but ETH remains weak.
Key reasons: 1️⃣ Thin weekend liquidity increased selling pressure. 2️⃣ ETF outflows signal weak institutional demand. 3️⃣ Nearly $1B in liquidations intensified the downturn.
Key BTC levels:
Support: $73K
Resistance: $76.2K
⚠️ One rebound doesn't confirm a bottom. The upcoming US CPI report could
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch #美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查
On one side, the rules for the crypto industry remain unsettled; on the other, channels for pension funds to invest in crypto assets may be relaxed.
The CLARITY Act aims to resolve who exactly regulates crypto assets and under what rules trading platforms should operate. It passed the House last year, but a key procedural vote in the Senate in September this year only received 49 votes, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. This was not the final vote to pass the bill, but a procedural hurdle to advance its review.
If it is not passed by the end of this Congress on January 3, 2027, it will need to be reintroduced and pushed again in the next session. Currently, with government funding and other matters pending, time is indeed tight, but "a tough year" does not mean "no chance in the next two years."
The 401(k) is a common employer-sponsored retirement savings plan in the U.S. According to reports, the Department of Labor's related final draft has been sent to the White House for review, involving how pension plans evaluate alternative investments including crypto assets.
This does not require pension funds to buy crypto, nor does it mean funds will be available immediately after the review. Even if the rules are ultimately published, each plan will still need to assess costs, liquidity, valuation, and risks before deciding whether to offer related products, and employees may not necessarily choose them.
For the crypto community, the former concerns whether industry operating rules can be stabilized, while the latter relates to whether long-term funds have easier access. Next, we will first see if the bill is rescheduled for review, then what the final retirement plan rules state.A bit counterintuitive: the bank helps you collect USDC, then immediately converts it to dollars, not keeping a cent.
So what do customers want? Speed. Waiting three days for cross-border payments versus three minutes is a completely different matter.
PNC is doing exactly this, as a pilot, only open to eligible corporate and institutional clients. Frankly, the bank doesn't dare to go all in, so they first test the waters with a few clients.
In this process, $USDC is not used for appreciation but as a courier. The profit comes from time saved and fees, not price differences.🚀 $RKLB will release its earnings report after the market closes tonight. In its past 4 earnings reports, it only closed green on the earnings day once 👀
Outcomes I personally am not optimistic about the earnings beating expectations, but will the first full trading day after the earnings close higher? 🤔
From the close before each earnings to the close after earnings:
🔴 November 2025: down 1.3%
🔴 February 2026: down 4.9%
🟢 May 2026: up 34.2%
🔴 August 2026: flat (down 0.04%)
Wall Street's expectations for tonight:
Revenue of $257 million, about 66% growth year-over-year
Loss per share of $0.07
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？
Revenue is still growing rapidly, but the stock price is 65% below the record closing price in May 📉
Can the numbers catch up to the stock price, or is the space trade still unraveling? 👇$INTC
Strong support at 50 is the mid-term lifeline; if it breaks below 45 effectively.
Resistance: Immediate at 58.63, dynamic VWAP around 80–87.62–Above 50, light buying to catch a rebound is possible; reduce positions if it falls below 52.51;
If the rebound meets resistance at 58.63, short-term reduction or short selling can be tried; breaking 50 turns bearish targeting $45.
Avoid chasing shorts below VWAP.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 🚨 Bitcoin is already oversold, but has the real bottom truly arrived?
BTC is currently showing some signs of momentum exhaustion, but don’t mistake a brief rebound for a trend reversal.
Bitcoin is hovering around $74,346–$74,600 and is still struggling to hold the 200-day EMA line at $74,533. The short- and mid-term trends remain bearish, while the MACD momentum is nearing flattening, indicating the market is waiting for the next major catalyst.
The 4-hour RSI has entered the oversold zone, so a technical rebound may occur in the short term. However, selling volume is still increasing, indicating that selling pressure has not yet fully eased.
Key level: $74,533.
Only if BTC rallies with volume to reclaim and hold above this level can the market potentially signal a clearer recovery. Until then, any rebound should be approached with caution.
Remember: the market can remain oversold for a long time; patience often matters more than blindly chasing gains.
Do you think Bitcoin is approaching the real bottom, or is there still potential for further decline?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BTCAnalysis #OKXOrbit
For reference only, not investment advice (NFA). Please do your own research (DYOR).
#DailyOrbit An American bank has started allowing corporate clients to receive payments using stablecoins. PNC, in partnership with Coinbase, enables eligible corporate and institutional clients to receive payments directly in USDC, which are automatically converted to USD upon receipt. This is initially launched as a pilot program.
Let's clarify the significance. This is not just a slogan-like announcement of "a bank supporting cryptocurrency"; it involves the payment collection process. When companies receive USD, they have to go through correspondent banks, wait for clearing, and pay cross-border fees; now the entry point is switched to on-chain, coins come in, dollars go out, and the middle part is eliminated.
Tom Lang, PNC's head of funds management, is very cautious: the current goal is to test stablecoin functionality with clients. To translate, the bank itself is experimenting cautiously and does not dare to fully open the floodgates at once, but the direction is clear.
It is worth noting that PNC is not a newcomer. Last year, it already used Coinbase's "Crypto as a Service" platform to provide crypto trading for clients, and it also serves as Coinbase's banking service provider. Both sides are clients of each other, making this relationship much stronger than a simple supplier partnership.
For $USDC, this represents incremental demand on the usage side: it's not just another trading pair, but a batch of corporate cash flows that must settle with it. The issuer's business essentially depends on how frequently others use it.
One question remains: after the payment collection side is operational, will remittances and trade settlements be next? That would be the main arena for $USDT.The crypto market faced another sharp sell-off this morning, with $BTC dropping toward $73,500 and $ETH falling near $2,050. Bitcoin managed to recover some losses, but Ethereum continues to show weakness. What triggered this sudden move? Three factors may explain the pressure: 1️⃣ Thin Weekend Liquidity: With traditional markets closed and trading activity relatively low, even large sell orders can push prices through multiple support levels. 2️⃣ ETF Outflows: Continued outflows from Bitcoin This round of decline is no longer just a technical correction; it is a simultaneous pressure on the crypto market from macro tightening and regulatory uncertainty. On November 6, the US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-over-month. Strong employment data reignited rate hike expectations, with the market's bet on a December rate hike rising to about 80%, strengthening the dollarThe Vietnamese team is breaking down "authorization" into programmable granularities: instead of asking if you want to authorize, it first asks how much you can authorize and which contracts you can interact with. $BICO is priced at 0.01414 USDT, down 1.0% in the last 24 hours, but the key to this narrative is not the price, but the permission restructuring happening at the wallet layer—authorization changes from a one-time action to a quantifiable, auditable quota. The real tension lies in the fact that on-chain interactions are becoming increasingly automated, yet users are still required to confirm each operation individually. $BICO's smart sessions attempt to resolve this contradiction with "limits + whitelist," such as how much can be moved per transaction, the cumulative maximum, and which contracts are allowed to be called. This design has direct value for repetitive operations like dollar-cost averaging and periodic savings, eliminating the friction of repeated signatures. However, the success of the product depends not on whether the technology can achieve this, but on whether users can clearly understand what permissions they have actually granted at a glance. Even with "one-click authorization," single transaction limits and total limits must be clearly distinguished in the wallet interface; otherwise, automation only hides risks deeper. Looking further, this is actually the same issue for multi-asset ledgers in payment paths. $XRP is priced at 1.1609 USDT, basically flat in the last 24 hours, and multi-currency payments on the ledger can find multiple exchange paths and can also use $XRP as an intermediate hop. Whether a path can be used for actual payment depends not on how attractive the quote looks, but on the depth of the order books on both sides: if both sides are sufficiently deep, an additional intermediate exchange may still be better than a direct oneConclusion first: $MERL is up +12.5% today, with two completely different market moves. The early morning surge was driven by leverage, while the new high in the evening was not.
At 4 AM on the 1H chart, the price jumped from 0.03144 to 0.0328 (+11.7%), with a volume of 1.82 million USD, 36 times the usual volume of about 50,000; open interest simultaneously rose from 1.366 million to 1.729 million (+26.5%), indicating new longs entering. At 5 AM, the price immediately dropped back to 0.0305 (-6%), with a volume of 1.89 million, the highest volume of the day in that hour.
From 7 PM to 9 PM, there was another push, reaching 0.03299 at 9 PM, a 24-hour high. But open interest was only 1.566 million USD, 12.4% lower than the day's peak of 1.787 million — this move was short covering, not new money. Funding rates had already flipped negative: 08:00 -0.0179%, 12:00 -0.0102%, 16:00 -0.011%, with shorts paying longs for three consecutive periods.
In short: those who chased the price higher early morning did not benefit from the evening move.
A reminder: perpetual 24-hour nominal volume is 14.97 million USD, while OKX spot is only 1.84 million, an 8x difference. I checked announcements and news, no official explanation.
Will you add positions following the first wave, or wait until funding rates turn negative before entering? $ZEC
• NU7 Network Upgrade: Zcash's NU7 upgrade was activated around November 5th. The core change is the reduction of block confirmation time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, significantly improving transaction speed. The upgrade expectation previously drove a rebound, but the market experienced typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" volatility before and after the event (including widespread liquidation of leveraged long positions on November 3rd).
• Macro and Narrative: Recently, due to macro uncertainties such as the US midterm elections, overall risk appetite in the crypto market has decreased. Additionally, the privacy coin narrative and the fund flows of the Grayscale ZEC spot ETF remain long-term potential catalysts, though short-term momentum has weakened.
• Short-term Trend: Currently, ZEC is in a short-term descending triangle/consolidation range with weak momentum. The market is testing support around 1,200. If it can stabilize here, it may continue to oscillate between 1,200 and 1,300 to digest; if it breaks below 1,190 effectively, there is a risk of further retesting 1,100.
• Reversal Signal: Attention should be paid to whether the price can effectively recover and hold the 1,280–1,320 resistance zone, which would be an initial signal of a short-term trend strengthening.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 🚨 $1.28 BILLION LEFT BITCOIN ETFs — IS INSTITUTIONAL CONFIDENCE FADING?
The pressure on crypto is growing, and this time it's not just Bitcoin feeling the heat.
📉 BTC: $74,457 — $1.28B in weekly ETF outflows. Key support: $73.3K.
📉 ETH: $2,131 — 6 consecutive weeks of ETF outflows. Key support: $2,050.
📉 SOL: $86.88 — 5 straight weeks of ETF outflows. Resistance: $88–$90.
Stay patient, manage risk, and let the market confirm its direction.
NFA. DYOR.
#Bitcoin #ETF
#DailyOrbit The 74,888 level mentioned yesterday has already been broken.
The current price is around 74,600, down 1.96% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 73,500, marking a new low in nearly two months. The 7-day change is -3.71%, and the 30-day change is -10.14%. The price is moving further away from MA7 (76,600) and MA30 (80,000), with the downward pressure from the moving averages increasing.
74,888 was originally the lower boundary of the consolidation range. After breaking below it, the roles have reversed, and a rebound to this level now acts as resistance. Below 73,500, there is no obvious dense trading area, so only the round numbers 73,000 and 72,000 can be referenced. Catching a falling knife at these levels has a low cost-performance ratio.
To turn bullish again, the price must at least reclaim 74,888 and then hold above 76,600 (MA7).
On the derivatives side, the funding rate is still +0.0055%, indicating longs have not been completely flushed out; open interest at 2.64 billion USD has not significantly decreased, leverage remains, and there is a considerable probability of a secondary dip after the sharp drop.
My personal approach: stay out of positions, neither bottom-fishing nor chasing shorts. Wait for 73,500 to hold or for a volume-backed recovery above 74,888 before reconsidering. This is just a personal record and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Brothers, Monday's sell-off was brutal. $BTC dropped sharply from above 75,000 in early trading to around 73,510, then pulled back to 74,300; $ETH was even weaker, hitting a low of 2,060, now at 2,110.
$BTC $74,300 | $ETH $2,110
In the past four hours, the entire network liquidated $803 million, with longs accounting for over 90%. $ETH liquidations were $358 million, $BTC liquidations $233 million.
The trigger for this round of panic is still regulation. After the midterm elections, the Democrats control both chambers, and Warren is seen as a leading candidate for chair of the Senate Banking Committee. The market fears increased anti-money laundering and risk control rules; combined with weakening expectations in the AI sector, high-risk assets are collectively being devalued.
Liquidity hasn't stopped bleeding either. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, the largest weekly outflow since the end of June, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing $1.21 billion.
But there's a detail: when $ETH dropped to around 2,060, a whale borrowed 22 million USDT from Aave to buy 10,000 ETH at an average price of 2,155.
Technically, $BTC's 73,500-74,000 range is this morning's low, and ETH's 2,060 is a wick low.
Are you brave enough to catch the dip caused by this regulatory panic? 👇
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 🚨 $BTC : Bitcoin Breaks Below the 50-Week MA!
Bitcoin dropped to $73,477, closed below its 50-week moving average, and recorded five consecutive weekly declines.
This signals growing pressure on the medium-term trend.
⚠️ A breakdown doesn't automatically mean a bear market. The key question now is whether BTC can reclaim the 50-week MA.
No blind bottom calls, no panic predictions. Wait for confirmation and manage risk carefully.
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch Nvidia's stock price immediately dropped, and Bitcoin followed downwards. Once again, we retail investors are paying the price. 🙄️ $BTC is fluctuating around 75,900-76,000, with 76,000 as a short-term resistance level. The 74,800-75,000 range is the last defense line for the bulls; if it breaks, it could easily drop to around 73,000 near the 200-day moving average. The Fear and Greed Index has also fallen to 28. $ETH is consolidating near 2,230, with 2,200 as a key support level. If it doesn't hold, it might test 2,100. Funds are clearly moving to safety and reducing altcoin positions. This sudden drop was first triggered by a cooling of AI sentiment in tech stocks, followed by the Jensen Huang incident. On the surface, it's a personal life issue, but in reality, it shakes the trust in the AI chip leader, dragging Bitcoin and Ethereum down with it. 🥲 #US October nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, December rate hike bets大家晚上好，我是新犽，我们先简单复盘最近走势，11月6日，大饼主要集中在在75400-76200来回走了五笔，且白天下午晚上三次向下插针，而周末两天也在该区间盘整，而11月9日凌晨五点，从75777向下插针73333一针几乎2500点，在清算2.1亿刀多头头寸后，回头测试砸盘点。后续的拉扯交锋比较激烈。 我们可以通过交锋痕迹标记出几个分歧点75600，74700，73800，其中交锋最密集的地方在74700，多次成为争夺区，而看macd，也能看出是短暂的平衡点。 而同一段行情，以太的震荡集中在2220-2245盘整，11月9日凌晨五点多，2225跳水，插针2051， 一举清算3.1亿多头头寸。而反弹过程在2125停靠后，继续向上插针2168才拐头。这一段走势，波动比大饼强，反弹力度不如大饼，且阴盛阳衰，市场护盘意愿不如大饼。与大饼同步的分歧点标记，2168，2125，2085。且2125如大饼的74700同为短暂平衡点。 对比8月下旬的行情，以太跌破了8月20日二段拉涨点2102一带，而大饼对标的是69500一带，大饼下跌强度远远不如以太，向下的延伸预期与朝上反弹的最大理论空间对立了。In three days, $SOL only moved three cents
Last Thursday night, $SOL dropped from 96 to 88.30.
In the following three days, it stayed stuck between 89 and 90.5.
Here's how the numbers are calculated:
From 89.62 to 89.65, it rose 0.03 over thirty hours.
Counting from the low point of 88.30, it only recovered 1.5%.
Who’s involved:
That bearish candle that dropped the price first swept out those chasing longs.
Now this narrow range means neither buyers nor sellers are willing to move first.
Quiet doesn’t mean nothing is happening.
The narrower the range, the denser the orders stacked just outside both boundaries.
The first move will take all those orders out together.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $SOL #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ #软银重金押注OpenAI，财报前瞻
SoftBank is set to release its FY2026 Q2 earnings report on November 10, having invested a total of $64.6 billion in OpenAI. This heavy AI bet is the biggest focus in the market.
But the contradictions are clear now:
On one hand, there is a large-scale plan to invest $50 billion in Malaysia to build an AI data center, continuously expanding AI infrastructure in Asia;
On the other hand, negative news keeps coming: OpenAI’s valuation has been downgraded, financing is difficult, and SoftBank’s own financing costs are rising. It relies on high-interest debt for funding, its stock price has sharply retreated, and the market has already priced in the uncertainty.
In the crypto space:
AI is the main narrative. If the earnings report can provide optimistic asset valuations and investment return expectations, it will boost sentiment for AI-related tokens;
If the report shows expanding unrealized losses and asset shrinkage, funds will quickly withdraw from AI themes, and related AI tokens are likely to come under pressure.
SOFTBANK-related tokens have already fallen ahead of time, indicating market caution.
We are now in a phase of expectation games; do not heavily bet on the outcome in advance. Wait for the earnings report to land and then assess the expectation gap.$BTC 74K: This could be the most critical line of defense for the entire market!
Unexpectedly, this round of correction has been so intense. BTC has already retraced over $13,000 from its high, and the 73K area has been quickly tested. What the market needs most now is not blind bottom-fishing, but confirmation of whether the 74K level can truly hold.
Several signals deserve close attention:
1️⃣ Clear divergence in capital: Retail investors remain actively bullish, but large orders and liquidity distribution are changing, and market sentiment is not unified.
2️⃣ Technicals remain oversold: The weekly chart has shown multiple consecutive bearish candles, and the daily, 3-day, and weekly charts are all in weak zones, with short-term rebound demand accumulating.
3️⃣ Altcoins are diverging: Some strong altcoins are no longer hitting recent lows, but BTC is still repeatedly probing the bottom, indicating a shift in capital structure.
4️⃣ 74K is a key observation point: If this level holds, BTC has a chance to recover toward 76K and 80K; if it breaks down effectively, 68K could become the next important area to watch.
My view: This currently looks more like an extremely fragile bottoming phase rather than a confirmed reversal. Oversold does not equal bottom, and a rebound does not mean the bull market has restarted.
Spot trading requires patience, and contracts require even more leverage control. The most important thing going forward is to observe the support strength near 74K.
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch The dust has settled on the U.S. midterm elections: The Associated Press confirmed that the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, and the market's first reaction was to sell off. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $73,708 and Ethereum to $2,223 over the weekend, both the lowest since August; this morning Bitcoin returned to around $75,200, Ethereum about $2,144, down about 4% in 24 hours. One more noteworthy point: Bitcoin fell below Strategy's average buy-in price of $75,451 — this company, holding 849,000 bitcoins, is experiencing an overall unrealized loss for the first time, about $500 million.
My judgment: This drop is not about fundamentals, but a repricing of policy expectations. The market fears that a Democrat-led Congress will tighten crypto regulations, so funds are pulling out first. But note one detail: Bitcoin rebounded about $1,500 from the low of $73,708, indicating there are buyers willing to step in around the $73,000 level, so there is buying even amid panic.
Verifiable observation points: Watch the $73,700 (weekend low) and the $75,000 round number — holding above $75,000 means short-term stabilization; if it falls below $73,700, look down to $73,000 (near the 200-day moving average). Tomorrow, Tuesday (November 10), the U.S. October CPI will be released, and the data will determine whether this wave is policy panic or a trend reversal. US October CPI Preview｜December Rate Hike Expectation Scenario Breakdown
#US October CPI Preview: Will the December Rate Hike Expectation Change?
After the nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, CME interest rate futures priced in a 75% probability of a 25bp rate hike in December.
The market consensus expects: October CPI month-over-month +0.3%, core CPI month-over-month +0.3%.
Analyzing the market from three scenarios:
✅Scenario 1: Data meets expectations (core month-over-month 0.3%)
Rate hike expectation remains at 75%-80%, a slight negative for $BTC. Inflation stickiness persists, combined with strong employment, the Fed retains room for rate hikes.
✅Scenario 2: Data exceeds expectations (core month-over-month ≥0.4%)
Hawkish expectations max out, December rate hike probability surges above 90%, even pricing in continued hikes next year. US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, suppressing BTC.
✅Scenario 3: Data significantly weakens (core month-over-month ≤0.2%, rent and service items decline simultaneously)
The only reversal scenario, December rate hike probability quickly falls to 40%-50%, market stops pricing in hikes. US Treasury yields decline, dollar weakens, favorable for BTC and ETH.
Personal view: The market currently assumes a high probability of a December rate hike. Only a clear cooling of core CPI can break the existing expectation; meeting expectations just confirms the current bearish environment.Ethereum is still facing selling pressure, and buyers have yet to show a convincing recovery. The current market structure suggests that ETH remains vulnerable unless it reclaims its key resistance zones. Key Technical Levels: 🔴 Resistance 2: $2,450 🔴 Resistance 1: $2,380 🟡 Current Zone: $2,300 🟢 Support 1: $2,250 🟢 Support 2: $2,200 🟢 Major Support: $2,150 Market Scenarios: 📈 Bullish: A strong breakout above $2,380 could open the door toward $2,450 and improve short-term sentiment. 📉 Be[Full Day Closing Review] Monday Close: $BTC recovered from 73,500 to 74,600 in the morning session, $OKB was weak, and the US stock market remained mixed half an hour after opening.
Crypto: As of 22:05, $BTC≈74629 (24h approx. -1.7%, high/low 76100/73500), after dropping to 73500 in the morning, it stabilized around 74,500 in the evening. $ETH≈2122 (approx. -5.2%) remains weaker, $BNB≈685 (approx. -1.7%), $SOL≈86.7, $OKB≈97.6 (approx. -4.6%, today's low 95.6). Fear & Greed index at 29; total market cap approx. 2.50 trillion (approx. -4.6%).
US Stocks: Tokenized stocks mixed: XAMD≈467.5 (approx. +4.2%), XAMZN≈268 (approx. +3.0%) relatively strong, XNVDA≈176.1 (approx. -6.2%) still the weakest. Avoid chasing one-sided moves before tomorrow's data.
Click the link to view the market/place orders: https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/btc-usdt
Monday closed like this. Are you more focused on $BTC holding 74,500, or watching the US stock market divergence? #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Click $BTC to view the marketTonight is a key tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Is there still much room for BTC to go down?
According to the latest news, BlackRock-related addresses transferred 5,320 BTC (approximately $396 million) into Coinbase, marking the largest BTC movement tonight. The market is highly focused on this transfer into the exchange.
- Strategy disclosed tonight: from 11.2 to 11.8, a cumulative purchase of 1,037 BTC, updating total holdings to 850,364 BTC, signaling continued accumulation.
- Other BTC on-chain transfers are small and scattered, with no new large dormant addresses awakening.
ETH
1. Bitmine increased holdings by 9,587 ETH last week, with total holdings at 6.07 million ETH, indicating long-term institutional accumulation.
2. Staking redemptions continue, with two transactions totaling 4,200 ETH withdrawn from staking contracts to Binance, indicating a tendency to sell.
3. Tonight's derivatives: ETH longs continue to be liquidated, with about $127 million liquidated in the past 2 hours, making it the main force of liquidation tonight.
4. Whale address 0x4AB7 again withdrew 2,200 ETH into a cold wallet, continuing this week's accumulation rhythm.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$AKE large sell cost decreased, buy cost increased. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100,000 scale changed from 1.06%/1.14% to 1.55%/1.02%. Depth changes are asymmetric, with different situations on buy and sell sides.
$EDGE large buy cost decreased, small buy cost almost unchanged. Simulated buy slippage for 100,000 scale dropped from 0.64% to 0.54%. 10,000 buy still about 0.14%. Depth is improving, and similarly, single order cost is cheaper.Today's Trading Plan｜November 9
In the early hours today, during the release of news related to Huang, the crypto market plunged sharply again. This time $BTC has truly broken below the previous low, and several attempts to reclaim it have failed. I remain pessimistic about the subsequent market trend. Uncertainty in the news remains, and we need to be cautious of continued selling pressure after the U.S. stock market opens tonight.
Currently, to stop the decline, the price first needs to reclaim the pink line shown in the chart, around 74,950, and hold on a pullback. As long as the rebound is suppressed below this level, I still lean towards the downtrend continuing.
Order indicators also make me cautious. During this recent rebound, the spot CVD has reached a local new high, but the price has not risen correspondingly. I tend to believe that active buying is being absorbed by passive selling near 75,000 above, and the buying power is not yet sufficient to push the price through.
If the decline continues tonight, the more obvious supports lower on the chart are relatively sparse, with almost no safe zones to hold. I will first observe the reaction near the low around 73,300 in the early hours, which is the VWAP of the upward segment. If this level also fails, the next key focus is the volume accumulation area near 71,000.
I still hope the crypto market can hold, but today we need to see how the New York session actually plays out. Whether the price can reclaim the pink line and whether spot buying can truly drive the price up will be key to my judgment of the strength of this rebound. BTC Daily Market Analysis
Today, BTC overall maintained a narrow range oscillation pattern. Spot trading sentiment slightly declined compared to yesterday. The 4-hour moving averages are intertwined. After briefly stabilizing above the $68,000 psychological level, the upward attempt to test resistance near $69,500 failed. On-chain data shows a slight increase in net outflows from exchanges, and the proportion of long-term holding addresses has reached a new stage high. Selling pressure mainly comes from repeated liquidations of short-term contract leverage funds. The market is currently awaiting guidance from US inflation data, with intensified long-short battles. Short-term operations require strict position control. Support is at $67,200, resistance at $70,000. Before an effective breakout, chasing gains or cutting losses is not advisable. Beware of sudden volatile spikes late at night.
(198 characters in total)Trader Gu Jingci: 11.9 Bitcoin/Ethereum Evening Operation Strategy with Market Analysis
Bitcoin/Ethereum have been declining steadily since early morning, followed by narrow-range consolidation after the drop. The overall trend is clearly weak. However, the early morning spikes to the 73000 and 2050 levels are important previous support points; no breakout action will be taken before these levels are breached. Our daytime strategy is to hold long positions, and during the evening market rally, we also recommend securing breakeven or taking small profits. Currently, the 4-hour candlestick chart shows multiple lower wicks followed by rebounds and rallies, indicating buying interest at the bottom, easing short-term selling pressure, and the market entering consolidation or preparing for a rebound.
On the daily chart, a large bearish candle with a long lower shadow confirms the exhaustion of short-term downward momentum. The market shows hesitation at low levels, possibly signaling a short-term rebound or consolidation. Technically, the 4-hour MACD indicator's DIF and DEA lines continue to diverge downward below the zero line, and the MACD histogram is negative and expanding, indicating that bearish strength remains very strong and the short-term downtrend is unchanged.
Evening operation suggestions: Buy Bitcoin around 73500-74000, target near 75500; buy Ethereum around 2080-2100, target near 2150, with stops at 73000 and 2050. Analysis and strategies are for reference only; please bear the risks yourself. The article's review and publication are not timely; please rely on real-time data!
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $ETH Just looked at the 15-minute chart, and the K-line amplitude is getting smaller. It dropped all the way to around 2050 this morning. That drop was very fast. After the drop, the market didn't continue to break lower. After this sharp decline, the pace between bulls and bears has slowed down.
Looking at the recent two hours of 15-minute movements, the amplitude has tightened. The swing highs are moving down while the swing lows are simultaneously moving up, forming a convergence. The trading volume in the latter half of the consolidation range has halved, and short-term volatility is narrowing. After this morning's sell-off, the bears' momentum couldn't continue pushing down.
On the daily chart, the current price is hovering around 2108. This daily level has been touched 8 times before, so the support below remains intact. A big 4-hour drop reached this level and encountered a major key level. The daily structure blocked this downward move, and the bears couldn't break through further.
Overall, I still lean bullish. The price is holding at the 2108 daily support line. The market is expected to stabilize here first, then move up for a rebound.
$BTC $SOL #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 BTC Market Review: Emotional Sharp Sell-off Lands, Strong Support Orders at Low Levels Protect the Market
Over the weekend, market liquidity was relatively weak, with BTC spot ETFs seeing a cumulative outflow of 800 million over two days, putting pressure on the market.
In the early morning, influenced by Nvidia-related sentiment, BTC quickly plunged below 74,000.
This was a short-term emotional sell-off without substantial negative fundamentals, which instead accelerated the market bottoming process and increased the probability of a short-term rebound.
Currently, bearish sentiment in the market is extreme:
Hyperliquid's giant whale short positions hit a one-year high, directly sweeping away two major long pain points at 74,500 and 74,700 in the early morning, causing over 700 million in long liquidations across the network, resulting in a very clean shakeout.
Current liquidation structure:
Long pain point at 73,600
Short squeeze range between 76,500–76,700
Short positions are denser, leaving strong room for a short squeeze in the upcoming rebound.
Technically, although the bearish arrangement remains, a large support order of 52 million USD is firmly placed at the 73,000 level, providing solid bottom support without breaking down.
Short-term range: support at 73,000, resistance at 78,000
This round was just an emotional sell-off; the structure has not collapsed.
I entered spot at 75,000, continuing to bottom-fish with a micro strategy, aiming to capitalize on the oversold recovery rally. Crypto assets have already become deeply integrated into the global risk asset system.
When U.S. stocks, interest rate expectations, and regulatory sentiment all change simultaneously, BTC and ETH find it difficult to remain completely independent.
So going forward, you can't just focus on the K-line; you also need to watch:
Whether U.S. stocks stabilize;
Whether U.S. Treasury yields decline;
Whether ETF funds flow back;
Whether regulatory news continues to cause disruptions.Technical structure: Oversold is a fact, but the trend hasn't reversed
Daily level — repeated contest around the 200-day moving average, MACD dead flat below zero line
BTC currently around 74,346–74,600, down about 1.97% in 24 hours. Price has fallen below the 7-day SMA (76,422), 20-day SMA (78,661), and 50-day SMA (81,685), with a clear short- to mid-term downtrend.
But the real focus is on the 200-day moving average (73,204) and EMA200 (74,533). This morning EMA200 was briefly reclaimed, then fell below again in the afternoon, indicating this line is being fiercely contested rather than cleanly broken. Daily RSI is 34.42, weak but not at a "decisive oversold" level; MACD histogram precisely zeroed at 0.0000, MACD and signal line both stalled at -1,738.18 — momentum is very poor but not accelerating downward, rather "dead flat," meaning the market is waiting for an external variable to break the stalemate.
4-hour level — volume-driven slow decline, rebound is a sell point
4-hour RSI once dropped to 26.4, daily RSI 32.8, MACD histogram -819, oversold signals do exist, but the trend hasn't reversed. From noon, volume gradually increased (12:00 119 BTC → 15:00 460 BTC), with volume expanding on the way down, which doesn't look like a one-time panic sell-off but more like sustained distribution. Until price can reclaim 74,533 (EMA200), any rebound can only be qualified as a "rebound." $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 True strong players do not chase the noise of hot topics; they only guard the opportunities they understand. Recently, the market for Bitcoin and Ethereum has once again entered a bearish trend. Influenced by various news factors, Bitcoin dropped again to a low of 73,333 early this morning, then entered a weak rebound during the morning and intraday, currently rebounding up to 75,724 where it faces resistance again. Ethereum's movement is similarly weak, with a strong one-sided drop formed early this morning and a low around 2050, followed by a bottom test and rebound. Intraday it is also a weak rebound, with the morning rebound hitting resistance at 2167. The bearish trend pattern remains unchanged, and the current rebounds should be regarded as corrections.
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin's price is declining within the mid-lower band range. The mid-band has repeatedly formed stagnation resistance, with 87,385 as the high point and 84,875 as the secondary high point, which is also the new starting point of the decline, forming a wave-like downtrend. The daily chart forms a descending channel. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish momentum is strong: 84,875 marks wave one down, 81,953 wave two, and 81,188 wave three. Each rebound high is successively lower, and lows are refreshed step by step, clearly forming a bearish trend pattern. The main direction remains bearish going forward.
On Monday night, Bitcoin can be shorted at 75,500-75,800, with a short-term target around 73,300. This week's swing short target can be seen at 71,000-69,500.
Ethereum can be shorted at 2,150-2,165, with a target around 2,050. This week's swing short target can be seen at 1,930.
$BTC $ETH Today, major cryptocurrencies overall maintained range-bound fluctuations with no severe divergence.
BTC continues to consolidate within the range, with trading volume steadily shrinking. Neither bulls nor bears have enough strength to push a one-sided move; most are waiting for macro news catalysts. There is no clear breakout signal in the short term.
ETH is relatively weak, lacking momentum to follow the rise. There is no large-scale capital inflow, and the ecosystem narrative is currently unable to drive the market. It mainly moves in tandem with BTC, with limited elasticity.
Other major coins (SOL, XRP, ADA) each show slight rotation, with occasional pulses but poor sustainability. These are mostly short-term capital arbitrage, making it difficult to form independent trends.
Overall: Major coins are currently in an expectation vacuum period with no strong drivers. There is heavy resistance above and support is temporarily holding below. In terms of operations, do not chase the rise or bet on one-sided moves; if trading short-term, wait for a volume breakout or a pullback to support to stabilize before considering, and keep positions light.
$BTC $ETH $BTC 的看法。 其实有挺多朋友都挺看btc跌破75000的。 我还是稍微再解释一下吧。 其一，75000没有跌破，你可以看跌破，但不应该做空； 其二，如果让我我看价格跌破75000，那就之后价格在75000反弹，然后上到蓝色趋势线之后，再下跌，这个时候，我可能就看跌破75000。 短线交易者可以做一个短多。 但不应该做空。 当你拿不住的时候，就不要进场。Behind the recent decline, several macro factors are simultaneously at play:
US employment data is stronger than expected, and the market remains cautious about the future interest rate path;
US tech stocks are pulling back, with AI and semiconductor sectors under pressure;
Regulatory expectations are shifting after the midterm elections, leading to a decline in market risk appetite;
ETF outflows and a contraction in institutional buying.
Crypto assets have become deeply integrated into the global risk asset system. When US stocks, interest rate expectations, and regulatory sentiment change simultaneously, BTC and ETH find it difficult to remain completely independent.Market fluctuations have their own rhythm; short-term oscillations are just interludes, the long-term trend is the final answer. Not fighting the market trend, but following it is the way to last. BTC experienced a waterfall drop early this morning; today is a very typical downward spike to trigger long positions washout, followed by an oversold rebound recovery period.
From the four-hour chart, the bears are currently in control, with the price suppressed within a descending channel. The overall direction is still downward, but after a big drop, there will definitely be an oversold rebound demand. After the rebound, it is very likely to continue probing lower. The current price is close to the lower boundary of the channel; although it hasn't broken through, the rebound highs are getting lower and lower, and the bulls are very weak.
On the macro side, Bitcoin is currently under pressure both internally and externally. After the midterm elections, the market has been worried about tightening regulations, which directly hit market confidence. Institutions have been withdrawing funds continuously, and without large capital inflows, a chain reaction naturally occurs. The non-farm payroll data was strong and exceeded expectations, and the market's bet on a Fed rate hike has risen to 80%, which is undoubtedly bearish for Bitcoin. Subsequent operations should follow the bearish trend.
BTC short near the rebound around 75500, target down to the previous low at 73333.
ETH short near the rebound around 2160, target down to the previous low at 2050 $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $RKLB Rocket Lab is currently at 53.81🔥 After a deep drop, it has slowly recovered, and the hourly chart shows a very resilient trend.
The key resistance level is at 54.05, with support at 45.75. Today's 24-hour range is 51.30-54.46, fluctuating back and forth.
MACD has already turned positive, and the bullish momentum is gradually warming up. Since pulling up from the low of 43.95, there is support at the bottom.
It is now right near the resistance threshold; whether it can hold above 54.05 is crucial.
If it holds, the upside space can open up; if not, it will continue to oscillate within the range. When trading this stock, be sure to closely watch for a breakout above the resistance level, and keep your position size moderate⚠️
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ CEO Peter Beck表示问题已通过工艺改进解决。后穹顶（aft dome）用新工艺制造后通过检测，质量达到历史最高。
• 11月6日官方更新：Stage 1 Forward Dome已从AFP（自动纤维铺放）机器下线并完成固化（cure）。下一步是材料分析与强度测试，确认无空隙后再进入一级罐体组装阶段。It is already "at the bottom." The definition of oversold is not "falling a lot," but the price falling below all reasonable anchors based on long-term growth models and cycle structures, while the fundamental supply structure (fixed supply, halving progress, institutional holding cost line) has not deteriorated at all. Ahr999 dropped to 0.43, long-term holders completed surrender, the cycle time window precisely reaches November 2026, and the largest corporate holder is dragged to the breakeven line—these four things happening simultaneously in one price range have never pointed to "continued bear" in Bitcoin's history, only to the "bottom area." The only arguments bears can present now are "ETF outflows" and "macro uncertainty." But ETF outflows are the result of price declines, not the cause; macro bearishness was already priced in at 74,000. When all visible bad news has been digested by the price, and valuation indicators are shouting "historically this is the time to buy," what you should do is not follow the crowd but stand opposite to it. There may still be short-term fluctuations; touching 73,000 or even 70,000 is not impossible. But as an extremely bullish analyst, my judgment is unequivocal: the current price is within the confidence interval of the cycle bottom, downward movement is noise, upward movement is the cycle. This is not investment advice, but if you ask me "Is this the bottom now?"—my answer is: you are much closer to the bottom than to the top. #After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebound, Nasdaq weekly still down about 3.4% $OKB fell below 100, and Wang Duaniao is feeling bad!
Duaniao's position cost is in the 140-160 range. When OKB rebounded to 143 in the previous round, there was originally an opportunity to do T with the positions bought low in the 80-120 range, to unlock the previously high-chased chips and dilute the cost.
Now that it has fallen below 100 again, his mentality is somewhat collapsing. Currently, he has started taking advertisements, his position is leveraged, and funds cannot be freely withdrawn; fortunately, the leverage ratio is not high, and the risk of forced liquidation will only be triggered if the price falls below 50.
Objectively speaking, OKB itself has a solid foundation. Whether it is compliance licenses or brand influence, it belongs to the first tier in the crypto circle.
However, the tokenized US stock platform cooperated by OKX and ICE faces many obstacles on the way forward. The market was originally optimistic about the RWA main narrative, but now it has not only failed to bring new trading volume, but the expectations for the US stock sector have also started to weaken.
Coupled with the current overall market weakness and insufficient liquidity, OKB has again given an opportunity below 100.
If it were you, would you choose to lay out OKB here, or is bottom-fishing $BTC more stable? Another one down: Keplr.
Accounts created via Google and Apple one-click login are suspected to have been hacked. The root cause lies with the login service provider Web3Auth, which had an incident causing partial private key leakage.
Those who created wallets with their own mnemonic phrases are safe, and hardware wallet users are also safe. The dividing line is simple: whoever holds the private key themselves is safe.
One-click login essentially means the service provider generates and holds the key for you, and you only need to prove "I am me." It's convenient, but the cost is that the key is not in your pocket; if the platform has issues, your funds are at risk.
After advocating self-custody for so many years, it all comes down to a login button.
What else is secure? There is no absolute security, only who bears the risk. Convenience means shifting risk to others; holding your private key means bearing the risk yourself.
What you can do: switch one-click login accounts to mnemonic phrase wallets, and move large amounts into hardware wallets.BTC has fallen below $75,000 after a month of gradual decline, but unlike the major sell-offs in May and June where it dropped daily to $60,000, this time it chose a slight downward trend. Additionally, the Fed's rate hike in December has increased market panic.
In principle, as long as it does not break below $69,000, BTC still belongs to a large-scale bullish market with an end-of-year target of $100,000. If $69,000 is broken, everyone will suffer for at least a year.
2. $ETH dropped sharply from 2800 to above 2000 last time. If it deliberately breaks below 2000 and then rallies, that would be a bit unpleasant. I believe buying spot here is the same; do not sell below $3800.
3. $SOL has already broken the $100 support level, with an extreme support at $65 where you can go all in. The long-term target is to look at the previous high and then clear out at $160, which is very good.
4. The US stock AI trio $SNDK did not fall to $500 after breaking below $1000. In fact, there is a gap around $1030 that may or may not be filled. The extreme upper boundary is $1500, after which it’s just a dead cat bounce. Honestly, it’s better to play BTC.
5. Altcoin ZEC has seen a large profit pullback. I have not experienced rollercoaster rides with two unleveraged profits. The supports remain at 1208 and 888 as extreme supports.
6. We laid out some UNI at 6.4 last time, and it rose to 7.8 with a 20% profit that we did not take. I realize there really is no room for profit here. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $KITE — Kite AI
Kite AI is developing a Layer 1 for an agent-driven internet, with on-chain identity, programmable rules, and settlement for AI agents. The concept addresses how autonomous software can transact and coordinate safely. Real utility will depend on agent adoption, secure permissions, and reliable transaction execution.今晨加密市场给多头来了记闷棍。ETH自2220附近急挫至2051，BTC从75700滑落至73385，不少人醒来第一件事就是止损，甚至直接爆仓。4小时内多单清算7.4亿美元，其中ETH约3.2亿，比BTC多出1亿，杠杆拥挤程度一目了然。 随后价格拉回，盘面出现V形修复，但这更像急跌后的技术回抽，而非确定性底部。均线附近的多空争夺才刚开始：若回踩不破并放量站稳，才谈得上真底；若反抽乏力，多头可能只是昙花一现。 短线别急着给反转下结论，上午仍可能反复洗盘。真正变量在10号CPI，数据前控制仓位比猜底更重要。以上仅为盘面观察。 $BTC $ETH The easiest place to deceive yourself in a review is to take "what seemed obvious at the time" as a reason.
At midnight today, BTC dropped from 75,690 to 73,477 in fifteen minutes. Looking back afterward, the breakdown, volume surge, and failure to rebound past the previous high were all crystal clear.
But at that moment, only three things could be confirmed on the screen: the range was broken, the trading volume was twice the average of the previous twenty bars, and the close did not recover. All other explanations were added later.
So I assigned an invalidation condition to each signal. When replaying, first count the invalidations, then look at the profit and loss. This step is tedious but filters out the most costly mistake: rules that seem wrong but look right in hindsight. The more of these trades there are, the more ambiguous the rules are, not the more accurate the judgment.
Clearly defining what counts as a mistake is more useful than clearly defining what counts as correct.
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