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Last night, positions of 140,000 people were forcibly liquidated.
In one day, $856 million.
Ninety percent of them were betting on a rise.
Bitcoin dropped to 73,708, Ethereum to 2,100, both the lowest since August.
Many people didn’t lose because of wrong judgment, but because they didn’t have money to cover.
First, let’s clarify what liquidation means.
You borrow money from the platform to bet on a rise; if the price falls past a certain line, the platform doesn’t care if you’re optimistic or not, it sells for you directly.
What it sells is your position, and you lose your principal.
When one person is sold out, the price drops a bit.
As the price drops, the next person gets sold out.
The real pressure isn’t here.
75,700 is the average cost of this recent batch of buyers.
The price has already fallen below that.
People who entered in the past few months are all at a loss now.
Those losing don’t necessarily sell immediately.
But if it falls further, many will sell.
In the same week, U.S. Bitcoin funds withdrew $1.28 billion.
On Friday alone, $410 million.
BlackRock alone withdrew $400 million.
Retail investors are being liquidated, institutions are reducing positions, both happening simultaneously.
There are three more things outside.
On Thursday, the Nasdaq dropped 5.5%.
The midterm election results came out, adding more uncertainty to crypto legislation.
And that $6 billion theft still hasn’t been fully digested.
Four things collided on the same weekend.
Support broke. Institutions left. Buyers didn’t step in. There are still leaks outside.
Not a single piece of good news.
A 10% drop won’t bankrupt people.
Leverage will. $ONDO
Tokenized real-world assets are bringing traditional financial instruments into blockchain environments, and Ondo operates in this developing sector. The opportunity is significant, but so are the challenges surrounding regulation, asset custody, transparency, and accessibility. RWA growth should not automatically be confused with ONDO token demand. Understanding that distinction is essential when evaluating the project's fundamentals.Fear index at 28, could geopolitical news be the last straw?
The crypto fear index is only 28 today, the market is already not optimistic, and external risks tend to amplify volatility.
$BTC is currently around $75,810, down 0.25% in 24 hours; more notably, OI is up 2.0% in 24h, funding rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Contract participation is rising, but the funding rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
$XRP is around $1.16, down 0.13% in 24 hours. OI down 3.6% in 24h, funding rate +0.0054%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). This data seems to remind us: price is near flat but positions are decreasing, the market is still adjusting direction, and a positive funding rate should not be interpreted as confirmed buying pressure.
BTC price is slightly stable with increasing OI; XRP price is relatively strong but OI is declining, so there is currently no consistent sign of risk-hedging buying.
If sentiment continues to worsen, first watch if volume and liquidations expand simultaneously. How much risk do you think the market has already priced in?
#美军扩大对伊朗封锁，霍尔木兹重开仍存分歧 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 78000 and 2300: Prices are holding, but funds are retreating
78000 and 2300 are like two gates being repeatedly tested. Prices stubbornly hold at these two levels, yet funds are withdrawing, which is the most conflicted aspect of the current crypto market.
Looking at the macro picture: the midterm election voting day coincides with the non-farm payroll release, sharply increasing uncertainty; BTC options implied volatility has surged to 43.5%, with large funds busy buying protection.
On the BTC side, there are plenty of bearish factors: Binance hack, ETF net outflows exceeding $600 million in a single day, and cooling rate cut expectations. In the past, these would have triggered a sharp drop, but this time not even a 3% decline was given, the gap remains unfilled, and the resistance level exceeded expectations. However, the rebound momentum is questionable—it looks more like short covering rather than new funds entering. Above, between 78556 and 78836 lies the densest cluster of 100x long positions in the entire market; once the price touches this range, it could trigger a chain sell-off.
ETH barely returned to 2300, but the spot ETF has seen net outflows for more than twenty consecutive trading days, with BlackRock withdrawing $138 million in a single day. Regaining the round number does not equal a trend reversal; 2350–2370 remains a dense resistance zone where previous rebounds failed multiple times.
Ultimately, 78000 and 2300 are psychological stop-loss levels for bulls and bears respectively; whoever loses them first will surrender their chips. Until the direction is clear, whether to chase or not is a test of patience. #DailyOrbit 16.5 million tokens have been sold, but what concerns me more is the cost of this financing: operating funds were secured, yet the selling pace was handed over to the partners. The team claims they did not sell tokens directly, but OTC had no restrictions, and no consensus was reached in communication.
I believe this clarification is still insufficient to improve the risk-reward ratio. My speculation is that this exchange is only worthwhile if the new demand brought by the funds can cover the selling pressure; otherwise, even discussing odds might overestimate expectations. When evaluating Delta, do people value the probability of demand realization more, or the potential return odds?$ETH Morning Analysis
ETH was influenced early this morning by the controversy surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, which became the trigger for the market, causing a wave of liquidity liquidation and the price briefly breaking below 2080. Going forward, pay close attention to this level; if it breaks again, the risk needs to be highly cautioned.
In the short term, observe two key defense levels: whether BTC can hold above 75000 and whether ETH can maintain the 2150 line. In trading, be sure to control position sizes and avoid being aggressive.
This round of decline has already cleared liquidity below, which is a positive signal, but market divergence is still insufficient. True rallies often occur when market sentiment is uniformly pessimistic and everyone wants to short at the slightest pullback; the market is gradually approaching this state now.
Combining this with on-chain data review: historically, four times when short-term holders' costs exceeded long-term holders' costs, a bull market recovery peak emerged about a month later. The current indicator has just completed this crossover, and based on this pattern, I remain optimistic for the next month!Today's centralized exchange fund flow $BTC Alex Thorn, Head of Galaxy Research, stated that after Bitcoin closed above the 50-week moving average for seven consecutive weeks, it closed below that moving average this week. He mentioned that historically, after two similar patterns, there were no new bear market weekly closing lows.
As a quantitative newbie, when I see "two times," I tend to temper my expectations. If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if Bitcoin closes above the 50-week moving average for seven consecutive weeks and then closes below it again, it goes on the watchlist rather than directly concluding the bear market bottom has been reached. 🤖
My judgment is that this information is worth observing but is weak as bullish evidence. Two samples are too few to determine how stable the outcome is; the moving average is an indicator formed after price action, so breaking below it only describes a trend change and cannot alone explain why no new lows follow.
There is also an easily overlooked point in this rule: "no new weekly closing lows" does not mean there were no significant fluctuations during the period. For ordinary users, interpreting a weekly conclusion as short-term safety could be more problematic than misreading the direction. If Bitcoin later closes back above the moving average, I would treat that as a condition for recovery observation, but this is my inference, not a conclusion given by the data.
I will continue to watch whether the weekly close can reclaim the moving average and remind myself: historical similarities can be noted but should not be directly written as definitive answers.$LTC
Litecoin represents a different approach to crypto utility. Rather than competing through complex smart-contract ecosystems, it focuses on relatively simple peer-to-peer payments. Its established network history is an advantage, but competition from stablecoins and newer payment infrastructure creates pressure. Long-term relevance will depend on whether people continue finding practical reasons to use it.【Capital Watch · Stable Funding Rates Do Not Mean Buying Has Returned ( •̀ ω •́ )】
Today, $BTC and $ETH funding rates are overall neutral, with leverage sentiment not running to extremes, which on the surface seems healthy. But Ajian reminds friends: stable funding rates only mean no one is going crazy for now, it does not equal a trend reversal; if spot buying doesn't pick up, prices will still range sideways or look downward for liquidity.
Is the buying really back or not? Looking at ETFs is more direct. $BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, the worst week since the end of June, turning this year's account negative: at the start of the week, net inflow since the beginning of the year was $368 million, but by the weekend it flipped to a net outflow of $914.1 million, showing a clear acceleration of institutional withdrawal. $ETH is even more frustrating, with a net outflow of $365.3 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of outflows, totaling about $2.02 billion over six weeks; BTC's outflow suddenly accelerated, while ETH's bleeding is continuous, the latter being more exhausting.
In summary, it looks more like leverage is cooling down, not a bull market restart. Don't rush, wait for next week's CPI to give direction.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $BTC's price movement has changed in recent years
In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the price rose faster and faster.
From 2022 until now, $BTC has risen more steadily.
What does this price level mean:
Steady means buying is no longer concentrated in just a few months.
The price going up relies on continuous buyers.
Who is placing orders here:
Most likely those who buy at a fixed rhythm.
They don't watch short-term ups and downs, just place orders according to plan.
Rapid rises rely on sentiment; steady rises rely on process.
The process won't make anyone rich overnight, nor will it make anyone lose everything overnight.
The chart has flattened, and the participants have changed.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
#$BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations, what’s the outlook for BTC and ETH!!!
This time, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000, a typical hawkish data set with falling unemployment and rising wages. After the data release, the probability of a December rate hike rose, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, and liquidity tightening expectations suppressed BTC and ETH.
BTC: Highly correlated with the Nasdaq, it quickly dipped after the data release, with long leverage positions concentratedly liquidated. Spot ETF funds are prone to outflows, support levels breached accelerating selling pressure; BTC has a larger market cap and deeper institutional holdings, so its downside elasticity is less than ETH. Key support to watch is 74,000.
ETH: Has stronger high Beta characteristics, combined with DeFi and derivatives leverage positions, its volatility is significantly greater than BTC. Rising interest rates increase funding costs, DeFi funds contract, bearish for the ETH ecosystem, usually resulting in larger pullbacks. Key support to watch is 2,200.
Market rhythm: The data release is a bearish realization. The first wave is an instant sharp drop killing longs; the second phase is to observe whether U.S. Treasury yields can continue to rise, a rise and fall will bring a short-term weak rebound.
The above is for market review reference only and does not constitute trading advice. There is a BTCUSDT perpetual 100x long position.
Open the position list and check the stop-loss levels of heavy positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC There’s a change I think is worth mentioning separately: the fees are almost zero now.
A while ago, I talked with everyone about how the bulls were paying rent while falling, stubbornly refusing to give up. Now, the fee for BTC has dropped to 0.001%, and for ETH it’s just 0.0016%, basically nothing. Those holding positions have finally let go.
This is a good thing; the leverage clearing is nearing its end, and most of the forced liquidations have happened. But to be clear, clearing doesn’t mean prices will rise—it just means the pressure is off. For prices to go up, there still need to be real buyers.
Technically, the 4-hour chart is consolidating with low volume between 75,800 and 76,200. The weekend volume is low, so the direction is unclear. I calculated the daily MA200: BTC is at 73,231, ETH at 2,156, both a few points away from current prices. If an extreme scenario happens, that will be the real test. Don’t treat this as inevitable, but keep that line in mind.
There’s also a lot happening next week: the US military expanding its blockade on Iran, which will keep oil prices and inflation uncertain; SoftBank’s earnings report, with heavy investment in OpenAI; plus scrutiny over the CLARITY Act and 401(k) plans. The news won’t be quiet.
My stance is that the end of the clearing phase is a time to start watching closely, but don’t rush to call the bottom. Wait for the first real wave of buying after the clearing—that’s when it really counts.
What do you all think? Is this clearing phase over?
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #DailyOrbit I've always been puzzled by this: Isn't ETH supposed to decrease as more is burned? Why does it keep burning but not rising in price?
Over the weekend, Vitalik himself came out to explain. He said stop viewing ETH as a "fee-burning token" and start seeing it as a "store of value." In 2022, 1.48 million ETH were burned, but so far this year only 19,200 have been burned, a difference of two orders of magnitude.
To put it simply, fees were driven up by insiders during the bull market, and once they left, the fire went out. That NFT rush once burned 180 million in a single day, but now those NFTs sell for $150 each. So don’t use burn volume to calculate valuation; that line has always been illusory.At 8 PM on the weekend, Vitalik put the brakes on the three-year-old popular narrative on X: rather than treating ETH as a "fee-burning token," it should be seen as a "store of value." EIP-1559 should remain, but burning should not be the foundation of valuation.
The data supports his view. About 1.48 million ETH were burned in 2022, worth 3.6 billion USD; so far this year, only about 19,200 ETH have been burned, worth 43 million USD. This is not a halving, but a difference of two orders of magnitude.
The "ultrasound money" algorithm values market cap as annual burn divided by discount rate: burning 1 billion USD annually at a 4% discount rate implies a theoretical floor of 25 billion USD. But he directly challenges this: the bulk of burns from 2021 to 2023 came from internal ecosystem demand and will shrink with the coin price. On the day Otherside burned 180 million USD, those NFTs now trade at about 150 USD each.
He also did a harsh calculation. With ETH's market cap at 273.3 billion USD, if it truly operated on the burn logic, it would need to reinvest about 0.58% of market cap annually into R&D like L'Oréal. The foundation simply couldn't sustain this and would have to allocate 700,000 ETH per year, cutting validator rewards by two-thirds. This is not deflation, but another form of tax.
So what does it rely on? Decentralization, censorship resistance, privacy, security, and the rarest of all: stability. Tokenization of RWA is indeed growing, but it belongs to steady business and cannot replicate the fee surge.An interesting picture right now - regarding the dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC. In short - there are several conflicting signals, BUT they can all play out if the market continues to fall in the coming days and reverses no later than November 18. This would be a new attempt at a reversal after the failed attempt on November 3 (a short rebound instead of a reversal). Signals for further growth in stablecoin dominance: - Since November 5, dominance has consolidated above the 9.65% level, which in our assessment separates the bear and bull markets Looking back at the post from last night, this was actually a sign before the big drop liquidation. Also, with rising fees and crowded longs, how could it rise so heavily without liquidating a batch of positions!Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +1.29%, with the first-level pairing scale about $45; based on a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.45%. The first-level volume is very small, so no matter how good the curve looks, it is difficult to execute trades by volume.
The first-level positive spread for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.41%, with the first-level pairing scale about $2; based on a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.02%. Small orders can probe, but for volume expansion, deeper levels must be considered.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +3.87%, far-month annualized +0.64%, the near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.05%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.32%. Positive mark, negative first-level.When people see massive liquidations, they often think "leverage has been cleaned out, and the market is healthier." This news says that in the past 4 hours, the total liquidations across the network reached $803 million, and among the top ten traded coins on CEX, BTC dropped 1.45%, ETH dropped 4.87%.
On the other hand, I think the emotional impact of this number is big, but its value for judgment is overestimated. One reason is that the data doesn't show the proportion of long vs. short liquidations; just looking at the total amount, we can't even tell which side was squeezed harder, so how can it be directly inferred as bullish?
Another reason is that the liquidation amount is a loss that has already occurred, not a health check report of the remaining leverage. My guess is: if there are still many high-leverage positions, then this liquidation doesn't prove that the risk has been fully released. I would rather see how the open interest changes.
What other data do you think is needed to support the judgment that "leverage has been cleaned out"? I welcome people with opposing views to debate.早上05:55,你刷一下盘面,大饼就从74870扎到73385。二饼更狠,同一分钟从2159扎到2052。你要是看到74000破了才追空,后面大饼又弹到75698。前面那段跌幅你没吃到,后面这2000多点反弹,你准备怎么扛？ 大家好,我是驰川。昨天大饼先探75531,晚上冲到76160,收在76035。二饼从2221弹到2245,收在2241。到了今天凌晨,大饼跌回76000下方,几次反弹都没拿回来。二饼也被压回昨天低点附近。05:55这一脚,两个币把昨天的低点一起踩穿了。 这波急跌,OKX和币安的永续、Coinbase的现货,都在同一分钟下探。OKX那几分钟成交放大,按金额算的合约未平仓规模也在回落。我倾向于把这段看成破位后卖单集中涌出来了。至于第一笔卖盘是谁触发的,目前还没查到能和时间对上的消息。 北京时间10:52,大饼在75258附近,二饼在2148附近。15分钟图上,急跌后的回踩低点在往上抬。但大饼第一波反弹高点75698,二饼的2167,后面都没拿回来。再看1小时和4小时,两边收盘还压在各自的20周期均线下面。现在直接空,下边有人接。直接追多,上边还有反弹高点压着。我今天先Looking at this message, let's first break down the odds: stronger payment demand does not equal the related asset being worth chasing. CoinDesk reports that stablecoin supply has barely grown this year, while payment usage has surged significantly. Circle's latest financial report also reflects a divergence between circulation scale and on-chain activity.
My judgment is that this leans toward a positive for payment applications, not a signal of new funds entering the entire market. Since supply hasn't expanded noticeably, we can't directly infer that more funds are waiting to buy coins; increased payments make me focus more on the scenario where existing stablecoins are repeatedly used, rather than just watching issuance volume.
According to my speculation, if payment growth can convert into sustained revenue and valuations haven't been prematurely priced in, then researching payment infrastructure has potential; if it's only about transaction volume being lively but revenue doesn't stick, no matter how good the story is, the odds may not be favorable. What I'll be watching next is revenue capture, not rushing to treat usage volume as profit. The recently released domestic October PPI data jumped directly to 5.7% year-on-year, even higher than last month's 5%.
Many people's first impression might be that the industry is warming up and companies are about to make big profits, but it's actually not that simple.
This time, the factory prices were forcibly pushed up, mainly not because demand for goods increased, but because upstream raw material and energy costs were sharply raised.
So what exactly should we focus on next?
First, watch whether raw material costs can be passed on to the general public.
Upstream raw materials have risen sharply, but the purchasing power of ordinary people hasn't kept up. Manufacturing companies caught in the middle are suffering the most, with profits being severely squeezed. Whether the price increases can be smoothly passed on to the payers is the key going forward.
Second, see if small and medium-sized enterprises can hold on.
Many small factories may be forced to reduce production or even close if they can't withstand this wave of raw material price hikes. This will lead to many small businesses being eliminated, with all the business taken over by large leading factories.
Third, watch whether the government will step in to regulate.
Prices have been rising continuously, putting pressure on everyone. Next, we need to see if the authorities will intervene to suppress raw material prices and whether companies are blindly hoarding stock.
This high-level growth is hard to sustain for long. If people still don't spend much, the PPI will most likely spike and then turn downward.
In short, it's like watching a thermometer. As long as we focus on whether the manufacturing companies in the middle can make money, we can tell whether the real economy is heating up or cooling down.
DYOR #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
11.9
• Timing: The market is currently focused on the US October CPI and the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting.
• Latest background event: After the October nonfarm payroll report released on November 6 significantly exceeded expectations, market bets on a December rate hike have clearly intensified.
• Manufacturing background: Data from November 2 shows that US manufacturing rebounded in October, but input prices remain high, indicating inflationary pressures have not fully eased.
• Market pricing: Following the strong employment data, the bond market and the dollar are reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue tightening, indicating that this October CPI will have a significant impact and may determine whether this round of expectations is "confirmed" or "cooled down."
Core conclusion
The October CPI is very likely not the sole factor determining "whether to hike rates in December," but it will directly affect market confidence in a December rate hike.
Combined with the currently released strong employment and still high manufacturing prices background, market expectations for a December rate hike have already tilted toward intensification.
Therefore:
• If October CPI remains hot, the December rate hike expectation will most likely be further strengthened, even closer to "a done deal";
• If October CPI drops significantly, the market may reassess and consider that the Federal Reserve might not continue to hike rates in December.This recent drop directly smashed down to 73.33K.
Not only did it complete the K-line pattern, but it also thoroughly broke through the previous low from September 16.
This step is actually very critical.
Below the previous low, there is a large concentration of long stop-loss orders, as well as many defensive positions from bottom-fishing funds. Once broken, stop-losses trigger and leverage liquidations occur, releasing a large amount of sell orders in a short time.
But from another perspective, this also means a round of long deleveraging and liquidity cleansing.
The market is not short of direction; what it lacks most are the conditions for that direction to materialize.
When the unsteady longs are cleared out, leverage is squeezed out, and selling pressure is released, the market may actually become lighter.
What truly deserves attention is not how much it just dropped, but whether the price can quickly reclaim the key level after this decline.
If it can recover, then this break below the previous low could become a classic liquidity hunt.
With a lighter load, conditions will be set to run faster next. $BTC $ETH #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ A turnaround can happen with just 388 votes; the truly fragile thing is never the ballots themselves. Have you noticed that the market often fears not the bad news itself, but the fact that "the rules can be temporarily rewritten"? In a Georgia House district recount, the Democratic candidate initially led by 58 votes, but when staff checked the data, they found 388 votes were not correctly counted. After recalculation, the Republican candidate surged ahead by 262 votes. The Secretary of State has intervened to investigate. Don't get me wrong, this is just a vote correction in a single district and cannot shake the overall congressional landscape of the midterm elections. But it is precisely these "details small enough not to change the world, yet big enough to make headlines" that are most easily amplified emotionally. My first reaction to this news was not to take sides, but to think about position sizing. The midterm elections just concluded, and risk assets are still digesting the results. At this moment, the emergence of flaws in the election process is like handing a new narrative to an already tense market. The Nasdaq showed some recovery last Friday, but whether that was genuine capital inflow or just a technical rebound after overselling will only be clear after tonight's open. I tend to believe the news itself has limited actual impact on the index; what is really being traded is a sense of unease: as political noise increases, risk appetite will first contract before any directional talk. Transmitting this logic to crypto is even more complex. BTC has recently shown low sensitivity to macro-political news; it seems more focused on its own rhythm and the dollar side. The assets that are truly shaken first are ETH and altcoins; when risk budgets tighten, high-beta assets are the first to be reduced. If US stocks open higher tonight but then fluctuate, with the Nasdaq relatively resistant to decline[Unitree Robotics rises over 15%, humanoid robot market shifts from concept hype to industrial competition]
Unitree Robotics surged over 15% intraday on November 9, with $UNITREE stock price breaking through ¥757, and multiple stocks in the robotics sector hitting daily limits. This rally has a clear catalyst: from November 5 to 10, the China International Import Expo showcased products like dexterous hands and humanoid robots, reigniting market attention on the commercialization of robots. Meanwhile, Apple's research team recently unveiled the HALO autonomous robot control system, which has completed real-world environment testing on the Unitree G1, further fueling market imagination about Unitree's technological strength.
Unitree's own performance is also noteworthy: revenue for the first three quarters reached ¥1.817 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55.71%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at ¥387 million. However, third-quarter net profit declined 17.37% year-on-year, non-recurring net profit dropped 17.42%, and operating cash flow fell 54.69%. Based on a price of ¥757.77, the company's total market value has exceeded ¥306 billion, clearly reflecting substantial future growth expectations.
Apple's HALO indeed provides technical exposure for Unitree, but since the system was developed by Apple's team, it cannot be directly counted as Unitree's own technological achievement. This current rally reflects the market's early bet on the industrialization of humanoid robots. The industry outlook is promising, but the ¥306 billion valuation is no longer cheap. Going forward, sustained stock price support will depend on real orders, shipments, and profit growth; relying solely on robot demonstrations will be difficult to maintain the stock price.Three ledgers, three postures, pain from the same source: not exiting the market, but recalibrating beliefs with leverage and position size.
$AKE's long position is still at a loss, but the trader has not retreated. The position continues to increase, leverage is reduced from 5x to 4x, and the average entry price rises from 0.0046473 to 0.0051824. Raising the cost slows the liquidation clock, as if rewriting short-term risk into an endurance test. A $12,000 unrealized loss is the ticket to stay with the market.
$SNDK takes the opposite stance. While others look for a bottom, it shorts; partial position reduction has locked in $10,000, with an unrealized gain of $46,000, and plans to add more at the open. Realizing profits in batches during strength while retaining the core lets the incoming aggressive buyers bear the pressure. Buying on dips here is not a rule, just one end of a reflex action.
$ETH is the quietest. The position slightly increased from 2297 to 2343 and then stopped fluctuating; 2200 is seen as a level that might be reached within days, with the only strategy being: hold. Small caps have new longs, contrarian stocks have shorts, and large caps absorb volatility.
What’s truly worth watching is the second-order effect: when traders choose to reduce leverage rather than cut positions, marginal sellers decrease but exposure increases, and any direction could trigger a sharp squeeze. $AKE bets that the pain is over, $SNDK bets that the pain is not over. The question in the coming days is not who is braver, but whether this persistence is discipline or stubbornness. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 💧 Liquidity Quality Test
$XAU: Spread 0.002% | Top 5 Bid Depth $151.4K
$SPCX: Spread 0.007% | Top 5 Bid Depth $78.3K
$OKB: Spread 0.010% | Top 5 Bid Depth $3.8K
$XAU shows the deepest bid support in this snapshot. Facing rapid fluctuations, which one would you trust?
$SPCX $XAU $OKB
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ Not financial advice — Please manage risk and do your own research. ⚡ Bitcoin dropped $2,400 in ONE hour, then clawed back 87% of it. Bottom, or bait? 👀
On Sunday it was the only big market open, so it took the hit alone.
Drop: ~$75.7K to ~$73.3K
Crypto longs wiped: $700M+ in about 20 minutes
Low: a hair above the 200-day average (~$73.2K)
Now: $75,397
The flush hit within an hour of Nvidia’s board announcing an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang.
Base at the 200-day, or a bounce built for sellers?
Not financial advice. $BTC $NVDA $ETH This drop didn't break consensus, it broke borrowed money⚡Who is paying for this spike? Last night at 21:24 I wrote "75,569.1–76,300 grind," and I admit I was wrong about that.
I expect BTC to test the lower range of 74,500–75,800 again before 21:30 tomorrow night, before the CPI; if the 1H candle closes above 76,200 (24h high), that invalidates this.
At 05:00, the 1H candle plunged straight to 73,500, skipping 75,300; but it recovered to close at 75,468 six hours later. I wrote "grind," but the market played "stab."
CoinGlass: Long positions worth 899 million were liquidated in the 12-hour window, and BTC short positions accounted for 99.5% in the 1-hour window.
First clear longs, then squeeze shorts. 24h liquidations totaled 1.015 billion, 90% of which were longs in the last 12 hours; open interest only dropped 1.48%, money didn’t leave, it just changed hands.
$BIGTIME dipped to 0.00517, now at 0.00544, with 24h volume of 91,900 U. Only mainstream tokens are filling the gap; the long tail hasn’t caught up.
BTC ETF daily net value −$233 million, market cap 2.51 trillion shrank 1.80%, trading volume rebounded 70.31%, spot hasn’t recovered.
CME prices in a 76% chance of a rate hike in December. A spike that closes can remove leverage; if it doesn’t close, tomorrow night’s figure remains.
#US October CPI preview: Will December rate hike expectations change?
Which number will you watch for in tomorrow night’s 1H candle? The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $BIGTIME【Neutron delayed to 2027, can Rocket Lab's growth story still support a $30 billion valuation?】
What really matters for Rocket Lab is whether Neutron can successfully take over the growth baton for the next phase. The company has postponed Neutron's maiden launch to 2027, meaning the commercialization process of the medium-lift rocket, originally anticipated by the market, is further delayed. For a company valued at over $30 billion and still operating at a loss, the progress of R&D directly affects whether future valuations can be realized.
Electron also completed its 99th launch on November 2, with existing business continuing to contribute revenue. The company’s Q3 revenue guidance is $250 million to $265 million, but GAAP gross margin is expected to be only 29%–31%, and adjusted EBITDA is still forecasted to incur a loss of $17 million to $23 million.
Neutron has already secured a $397 million satellite project contract from the U.S. Space Force, indicating that both commercial demand and government orders exist, but the rocket has yet to make its maiden flight, so actual delivery and revenue realization are still some way off. $RKLB closed at $53.07 on November 6, up 15.39% for the day, but has still fallen about 29% over the past month. The market is clearly not valuing it as an ordinary rocket launch company, but rather pricing in the future large rocket and space systems business in advance.
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ The hardest hit on Monday morning was Ethereum. Coinglass reported 2132, down 4.6% in 24 hours, while Bitcoin only dropped 1%. In the hour before 6:21 AM, the entire network liquidated $745 million, 96% of which were long positions. ETH alone liquidated $440 million in one day, with OKEx bottoming out at 2063.
The narrative is also shaky. Vitalik posted a long message over the weekend, saying "ETH burning fees" has never been this strong, and ETH should be considered a store of value. This year, the median on-chain fee dropped from 35 cents to 3.5 cents, making the ultrasonic currency narrative unsustainable. Money is moving too: spot ETFs saw nearly $100 million outflow on November 5, with 23 consecutive trading days of net outflows in October.
ETH/BTC dropped to 0.0286, the lowest since August 19, down 57% from the 4946 peak.
Long positions in contracts haven't been fully flushed out yet. The total network open interest is $26.3 billion, with Binance's long-short ratio at 3.86 and OKEx at 3.52. Despite the drop, retail investors are still bottom fishing. Contract funds saw a net outflow of $790 million in 24 hours. The only possible support is that CryptoQuant reports exchange balances dropped to about 14.6 million coins on November 6.
2063 was the bottom hammered out this morning; below that is the 2000 psychological level, with the account long-short ratio still hanging above 3x. Only when ETFs turn to net inflows will the store of value narrative have buyers; if 2000 breaks, the first to be crushed will be these bottom-fishing orders. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ To be honest, when I used to see large liquidations, my first thought was "It should have bottomed out by now." Later, I realized that taking others' forced liquidations as my own confidence is just substituting judgment with hype, which feels a lot like panic buying bargains.
This time the information mentioned that in the past 4 hours, the entire network had $803 million in liquidations. My judgment is that this number should remind contract traders to hold back, rather than prove that chips are cheap: liquidations reflect forced clearing of leveraged positions, not asset valuation; the data also doesn't provide the distribution of long and short liquidations, so just based on the total amount, you can't even tell which side is under more pressure. Ordinary people tend to interpret "big" as "the end," which is the easiest step to assume.
Now I stick to two rules: don't use total liquidation amount as a reason to open a position; before placing an order, set the loss you can bear and don't loosen it just because you want to recover. Work is already tiring enough, I don't want to rely on the excitement in my account to keep me awake.AI's biggest invisible backer faces a major test! SoftBank, which has heavily invested hundreds of billions in OpenAI, is about to release its Q2 earnings report. Will it deliver on performance or fall short of expectations?
Many people have a misconception: heavily investing in OpenAI $OPENAI does not mean immediate profits. This is an equity investment that only generates unrealized gains on the books and affects net assets, but cannot be converted into real revenue and cash flow. Reviewing Q1 results, profits exceeded expectations mainly due to Intel's stake support, while the Vision Fund's returns weakened significantly, and AI investment dividends have not materialized.
Currently, the market is fiercely contested between bulls and bears. Bulls are optimistic about OpenAI's rapid commercialization and strong enterprise payment demand. If this earnings report raises its valuation, it will directly boost SoftBank's asset value. Coupled with the linkage between Arm and chip assets, the earnings report could trigger a recovery rally.
Bear risks are also prominent: massive investments heavily rely on leveraged financing, and financial pressure continues to rise in a high-interest-rate environment. OpenAI is not yet public and its IPO timeline has been delayed, causing extreme valuation volatility and unrealized book gains.
SoftBank's telecom core business is stable but lacks growth elasticity; market hype is entirely driven by AI revaluation expectations. The key focus of this Q2 earnings report is solely on OpenAI's valuation changes and the Vision Fund's holdings performance. The long-term AI logic is solid, but short-term substantial profits are hard to realize. Whether this heavyweight earnings report will be a surprise or a flop remains full of suspense.
#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ A loss of 44.78 million USD, to cool things down first: I don't take this number directly as evidence that ETH will continue to fall. According to Lookonchain monitoring, this giant whale's ETH long position has been fully liquidated. The loss is quite eye-catching, but a whale liquidation does not mean the bears have a guaranteed trend.
I'm bearish, but I need to distinguish two things: liquidation shows that this position couldn't withstand price fluctuations, so it alone can't determine the overall spot market demand; the news records a passive close that has already happened, and if one infers that there will be selling pressure of the same scale afterward, there's a missing piece of evidence. I think the most easily overestimated aspect is the directional indication this news provides for the future.
Of course, the bears might also be right. If further liquidations continue and spot support weakens, I will raise my assessment of downside risk. For now, I am watching subsequent selling pressure and support, and I won't use the whale's loss to bolster my confidence.There is a whale move worth mentioning today: opening a 30,000-share 10x short position on Nvidia at Hyperliquid, with a position size of about $5.44 million.
First, let's look at the facts. 30,000 shares, 10x leverage, $5.44 million — these three numbers together indicate this is not a retail investor probing the market, but capital with a clear directional judgment, using high leverage to bet on the tech giant in the US stock market going down. And the place where the order was placed is not a broker, but an on-chain perpetual protocol.
Next, consider the mechanism. Hyperliquid is an order book model on-chain perpetual, with position size, margin, and liquidation price all publicly accessible. On a CEX, you can only see funding rates and total open interest, but not the entry price or liquidation line of a specific whale; on-chain, these are transparent, and you can monitor them with just an address.
Is transparency a good or bad thing? Both. The benefit is you can see what the smart money is doing; the downside is once the position is fully exposed, it becomes a public target. The day the liquidation price of this $5.44 million short is calculated, it becomes a coordinate for a hunt.
So the real information in this news is not the conclusion "whale is bearish on Nvidia," but that it demonstrates one thing: beyond $BTC and $ETH, on-chain perpetuals are already taking on directional bets on traditional assets. The value of platform tokens like $HYPE, in the long run, is anchored in this real leverage demand, not in narratives.
A question to leave: when everyone's positions can be seen, what advantage remains in the market in the end? Conclusion first: Last night at 05:00 on the 1-hour chart, $SOL dropped from 89.07 to 84.81 (-4.8%), with a trading volume of 199 million USD, which is 13 times the usual volume (about 15 million). That was not buying pressure, it was a leveraged liquidation.
Currently, $SOL is at 88.2, rebounding 4.0%, still down 0.8% in 24 hours, hitting a near one-month low. The ledger is more honest than the price: perpetual open interest shrank from 375 million to 346 million USD (-7.7%), indicating liquidations rather than turnover; the funding rate at 08:00 flipped negative to -0.0025%/8h, whereas the previous two periods were at a +0.01% floor price—now shorts are paying.
Independent sources: TOKENPOST on 11-09 reported that the US spot SOL ETF had an outflow of 24.2 million USD on 11-06 alone; The Block on 11-07 reported that the Bitcoin spot ETF had a weekly outflow of 1.28 billion USD.
Bottom line: Perpetual SOL 24-hour volume is 702 million, which is 10.7 times the spot volume of 65.62 million, with only 196 units (about 17,000 USD) at the best bid. If you want to bottom-fish, do it in batches, using spot or low leverage; don’t max out perpetuals in thin Sunday liquidity. Do you think 84.81 is the true bottom or just a wick? $SOL AI narratives meet valuation discounts, while BTC looks more like a risk benchmark
Anthropic's valuation is being asked for a discount, reminding the market that even hot sectors need to be priced.
$BTC around $75,810, 24h -0.25%; OI 24h +2.0%, fee rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Contract participation is rising, but the fee rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
$FET currently near $0.144, 24h -2.06%; more noteworthy is the 24h trading volume of about $2.03 million. The trading scale is clearly smaller than mainstream AI tokens, so liquidity and slippage risks deserve more attention; don’t just look at thematic tags.
From the quality of funds perspective, $BTC seems to be waiting for direction, while $FET shows more obvious short-term position changes. Next, it depends on which spot asset takes over first.
BTC reflects overall risk appetite, while AI tokens bear additional narrative risk. Would you allocate to benchmark assets first or thematic assets?
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 今天凌晨 5 点 45 分到 6 点这一刻钟，盘面砸了一下。看欧易现货，$ETH 5 点 45 分开在 2222.08，6 点收在 2130.32，大约跌了 4.1%；同一时间另一个主流 5 点 45 分开在 75611，6 点收在 74676.5，大约跌了 1.2%。另外几个主流同期大概跌了 2% 上下。就这 15 分钟的收盘跌幅看，以太坊大约是另一个主流的 3.4 倍。
中间以太坊最低见到 2063.29，那是 5 点 55 分那根的最低价，不是 6 点的收盘；另一个主流最高 75611、最低 73500，来回是 2111。这两个最低点都是两个多月来没见过的位置。
我的判断是：这一下主要是以太坊自己的问题，不是整个盘子一起塌。理由有三个，都是能对上的数字。
第一，跌完回没回去，差别很大。
拿砸之前 5 点 30 分的价格当起点：另一个主流现在大约只比那时低了 0.2%，针基本收回来了；以太坊现在大约 2155，还比那时低了大约 3.1%。一个是插了根针，一个是实实在在掉了一个台阶。
第二，被清掉的仓位，以太坊比另一个主流还多。
按公开的爆仓统计，那一个小时全网爆了大约 7.SpaceX Miscellaneous Talk
In Q3, SPCX's capital expenditure was around $19.6 billion, with computing power accounting for about $16.4 billion.
In Q4, capital expenditure is expected to be $35~40 billion, with computing power accounting for at least 80%, i.e., $28~32 billion.
If this continues, the free cash flow of the big rocket will quickly dry up.
But the genius Musk arranged a $40 billion financing lease, with an annual interest rate of about 8%, to be repaid in installments over about 5 years.
Let's calculate how much the quarterly capital expenditure of the big rocket will become with this method.
$40 billion, 8% interest rate, 5-year installment.
Total repayment $48.663 billion, total interest expense over 5 years $8.663 billion.
Fixed monthly repayment $811 million, quarterly repayment $2.433 billion.
This $40 billion can bring SPCX an additional computing power of 0.8~1.2 GW, and it is the most advanced Vera Rubin NVL72 full cabinet.
At $40 billion/GW for external leasing, it can bring SPCX $32~48 billion in revenue,
monthly revenue $3.167~4 billion, quarterly revenue $9.5~12 billion, so its cash flow is positive at $7.067~9.567 billion.
In fact, 1 GW of leased computing power has already reached over $50 billion+
Of course, the model also calculated the computing power needed for its development and self-use, all comprehensively at $40 billion/GW.
If Musk can borrow another $200 billion in this way next year, the 10~20 GW computing power growth is just a matter of time.The 7-day high of 0.3355 was not surpassed; $MET rate turned +0.0050% then dropped 6.65% to 0.3061; $XPL continued to fall 8.62% to 0.05226, while speculative funds shifted to $RSR, which rose against the trend by 8.09% to 0.00167.
Foreign media report that stablecoin growth has stalled, with total volume shrinking 4.38% monthly to 293.2B. Daily total volume on-chain DEX plummeted 40.7% to 4.9B, and the median return of nearly 60 smart money trades was -69.5%. Demand has receded, leaving only short squeezes: RSR rate -0.0860%, volume 6.3 times the average, turnover 45.6%; XPL on-chain TVL dropped 8.0% daily to 442M, DEX weekly volume shrank 55.9%.
Our XPL short position held for 3.3 days with +218.8% gain, stop loss moved to 0.05305 (1.4% from current price); MET and RSR long positions stopped out at -92.3% and -44.3% respectively.
XPL broke the 90-day low of 0.04949 and continued to test lower, but found support at the 4H EMA20 (0.0574737); RSR surpassed the 7-day high of 0.001768 and continued strong, but weakened after breaking the daily EMA50 (0.00161242). With DEX daily volume down 40%, can RSR, squeezed by negative rates, hold for another day?
#XPL #RSR #MET
Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks yourself. ZEC's pullback does not mean ETF funds have already shifted to altcoins
The pullback of a single coin and institutional ETF subscriptions/redemptions are not the same thing; the two types of capital flows should not be confused.
$ZEC is around $1,260.58, down 3.88% in 24 hours. OI down 5.9% in 24h, fee rate +0.0265%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). This data set seems to indicate: price is falling while positions are shrinking, fees remain relatively high, long position cost pressure is not low, and deleveraging may not be over yet.
Looking at $XRP: current price about $1.16, down 0.13% intraday. OI down 3.6% in 24h, fee rate +0.0054%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price is nearly flat but positions are falling; the market is still adjusting direction, and a positive fee rate should not be interpreted as confirmation of buying.
RENDER's decline is relatively smaller, but contract positions are also shrinking; HYPE's price and OI are weakening in sync, with more direct short-term pressure.
Single coin volatility may come from liquidations and short-term demand; it cannot be inferred that the entire market's funds have returned. Will you wait for the ETF outflow to stop, or first watch for mainstream coins to stabilize?
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #SoftBank's Heavy Bet on OpenAI: Can Q2 Earnings Deliver Impressive Results? SoftBank's upcoming Q2 earnings report is a critical checkpoint for the market to assess the quality of its "AI gamble." Previously, SoftBank's bet on OpenAI did produce impressive figures: a cumulative committed investment of about $64.6 billion, holding approximately 13% equity, with OpenAI's valuation once soaring above $852 billion, driving SoftBank's paper gains to over $45 billion.
However, the issue lies in the fact that these returns heavily depend on valuation reappraisals. As of the fiscal quarter ending June 2026, OpenAI's valuation did not continue to rise, and SoftBank did not recognize any new investment gains for that quarter. Meanwhile, Vision Fund's pre-tax profits plummeted 98.8% year-over-year, and losses in AI computing business actually widened.
More immediate pressure comes from the cash flow. SoftBank recently issued $11.1 billion in high-yield bonds, with coupons as high as 9.75%, and the five-year CDS spread has widened to 466 basis points. Coupled with Elon Musk's rumors of "gas turbine order defaults," market concerns over SoftBank's high-leverage expansion model have intensified.
This earnings report will truly focus on three points: first, whether a new round of OpenAI financing can continue to push up valuation and bring paper gains; second, whether Vision Fund can stop the profit decline; third, whether AI infrastructure investments will continue to drain cash flow.
The AI narrative remains, but the capital market has shifted from "listening to stories" to "watching cash flow." If valuations continue to rise, the earnings report could still be impressive; if they stagnate, SoftBank's high-leverage model will face repeated scrutiny. 74,791防线正式失守！ 11月5日 80,838诱多顶#2（-47.16亿/360亿史诗级抛售）后，11月6日跌破75,000至 74,791。经过11月7-8日两天"地量整理"（37亿+49亿），市场选择向下破位——11月9日凌晨跌至74,394，正式跌破74,791恐慌底。C浪目标72,000-74,000已进入射程，距74,000仅+602点。 这是一个历史性时刻：六周以来所有"底"全部被跌破，市场正在进入** capitulation 的终极阶段**。 一、道氏理论（Dow Theory） 74,791正式跌破，道氏空头趋势进入终极阶段： 道氏视角下，11-5的80,838是 capitulation 后的第二次诱多顶，11-6的74,791跌破75,000心理关口。经过两天"地量消化"（11-7仅37亿，11-8仅49亿），11月9日凌晨74,394正式跌破74,791——这是六周以来所有"恐慌底"中第一个被实质性跌破的。 高点序列： 81,879→81,076→80,838（三级降低，空头控盘完美） 低点序列： 76,149→75,607→75,080→74,7#BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1.6 billion in a single week $BTC $ETH #US October CPI Preview: Will the December rate hike expectations change?
The weekend market was really exciting. In the early morning, BTC plunged directly with a bearish candle down to 73,385, then sharply pulled back to oscillate around 75,400. Combined with Cathie Wood's latest statement that "Bitcoin will continue to strengthen relative to gold," is this deep V really a rebound or a bull trap?
Looking at the 15-minute chart,
1. Technical recovery: MACD formed a golden cross below zero, red bars continue to expand; RSI returned to around 63; price has climbed back above multiple EMA lines. There is indeed short-term rebound demand.
2. Lingering concerns: The CVD indicator at the bottom is still in the deep water zone at -245M. This indicates that although the price has risen, active selling pressure remains heavy. The current rally looks more like a "technical rebound" triggered by short covering and profit-taking after the non-farm payroll disappointment, rather than a frantic bottom-fishing by big money.
3. Macro pressure: The resistance at 76,160 (24-hour high) is a strong short-term barrier. If the volume does not break through this level over the weekend, when the US stock market opens next week, the pressure from a stronger US dollar index will be transmitted.
Trading idea:
Short-term trading can be done in the 74,000 - 75,000 range to play the rebound, but stop-loss must be set properly (the previous low at 73,385 must not be broken). Avoid chasing highs near 76,000,Jensen Huang's betrayal, Big Bro Maji pays the price.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's betrayal hurts Big Bro Maji, whose $ETH long position was liquidated again this morning, then he sold 3 monkey NFTs to raise funds to go long on ETH again. #NVIDIA launches independent investigation, management stability under scrutiny
The drop that liquidated the whale's position at 6 AM also wiped out Maji's $1.16 million ETH long position;
After liquidation, he sold 3 BAYC NFTs to raise 17.2 ETH ($36,800), and withdrew 100 ETH ($213,000) from the exchange.
Then after selling ETH, he transferred 53,000 USDC into Hyperliquid to fully leverage and open a $1.48 million ETH long position.
What do you think, can Maji make it through this time? Funding rates and open interest are telling three different stories across $ONE, $MET and $ZEC, and the divergence matters more than the headline price moves. All three slipped modestly, yet the positioning behind each decline points to a different kind of risk as settlement approaches. $ONE shows the clearest sign of seller exhaustion. Its funding rate has stayed deeply negative, with the four-hour reading at -0.2504%. Price fell 0.53% while open interest dropped 1.19%, meaning part of the shorThe leverage long-short ratio rising does not mean there are more bullish people
$BTC spot has been bought continuously for 101 days, with no change in position.
How is this number calculated: The long-short ratio counts open contracts, not people.
If one person opens ten long orders, it counts as ten positions, not ten people.
Who is buying continuously: Spot buys a little every day, while the contract side is increasing leverage.
Both sides are increasing in the same direction, so the risk accumulates in one place.
Overall push: The spot part won't liquidate, but the contract part will.
If the price retraces, the side borrowing money moves first.
No change in position does not equal no change in risk.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $BTC $XAG sits nearly 30% below its 200-day average
Tavi Costa of Azuria Capital points out that silver is trading almost 30% under its 200-day moving average.
The last time the gap was this wide was March 2020.
Costa believes metals and mining are likely nearing another important inflection point.Risk assets all decline, crypto market faces stress test
AI tech stocks plunge dragging down risk appetite, Nasdaq falls over 5%, crypto market liquidates over $1.1 billion in 24 hours, bulls concentratedly exit. BTC currently at $75,867, intraday low at $75,230, repeatedly tugging at the 75,000 level; the 100-day moving average around 76,950 forms strong resistance. Short-term logic is clear: holding above 75,000 may repair the consolidation, breaking below opens downside space.
ETH currently at $2,240, spot ETF net outflow nearly $100 million in one day, but Coinbase buy orders exceed sell orders by $3.55 million, indicating bottom-fishing funds are still supporting. 2,200 is the last defense line, if broken focus on 2,170.
Another major coin currently at $91.18, rising 1.16% against the trend leading gains. Agave 4.4.1 validator upgrade is forcibly executed today; nodes not updated in time risk being forked out, short-term volatility may increase. 89 is key support, reclaiming 98 confirms reversal.
AI narrative cools down, leverage liquidations heat up, currently not advisable to blindly chase gains. Open positions, check stop-loss levels for each coin one by one, prioritize controlling drawdowns.