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This week's macro analysis four: The US stock AI narrative is recovering, but it still faces political uncertainty and macro confrontation! Asian stock markets fell sharply during the day, mainly due to concentrated sell-offs in high Beta assets such as AI and semiconductors, especially with the weakest performance in the South Korean and Taiwanese markets. Although the macro environment has not improved much so far, after last week's sell-off in AI and semiconductors, there has been no decent rebound this week. Obviously, selling pressure still exists, and valuation adjustment demand also remains. So, besides macro factors, the issue is the valuation adjustment demand within the industry itself! Last week, the three major cloud providers released earnings reports, leaving the market with a key and troubling question—capital expenditures are too high, corporate funds are pressured by cash flow, and the market is beginning to question the AI investment return cycle. The US stock market closed lower early Monday morning, and Asian stock markets fell during the Asian session today, indicating that last week's "mess" has not yet been resolved. Early morning earnings reports from Apple and Palantir, two companies at the tail end of the AI industry chain, are responsible for verifying the real situation of AI commercial implementation for the AI industry chain, and will also provide the market with feedback on the most concerned question at present—"Is AI actually profitable, and if so, how long will it take to recoup the huge past capital expenditures?" Apple—validating consumer demand #Apple Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, next quarter gross margin guidance under pressure Apple is not a pure AI infrastructure company, so when looking at its earnings report, the focus is not on AI capital expenditures but on iPhone demand + the Chinese market + service demand + the future Transferring the same 1 dollar, why do different stablecoins carry different risks? Because having the same price target does not mean the underlying mechanisms are the same. When evaluating stablecoins, focus on: * Issuance mechanism: fiat reserves, crypto asset collateral, or derivatives and hedging? * Reserve assets: Is the asset composition, custody arrangement, and public reporting clear? * Redemption capability: Who can redeem? What conditions must be met? * Market liquidity: Is it easy to exchange? How large is the bid-ask spread? * On-chain risks: Are there freezing, transfer restrictions, or upgrade permissions? * Network risks: Is the currently used version officially supported? Being able to transfer does not mean you can redeem at 1 dollar anytime; historically close to 1 dollar does not guarantee it won’t depeg in the future. Don’t just look at the price; look at what supports the price and what might happen in extreme situations. #Web3Security #Stablecoin #DigitalAssets $ETH is charging upward with aggressive bullish strength. Structure is holding solid as buyers step up aggressively. Buy Zone 2,270 - 2,292 EP 2,292 TP 2,340 2,410 2,500 SL 2,230 Momentum is coiling tight for a massive liquidity sweep. As long as support remains firmly defended, explosive upside extension stays fully intact. Let's go $ETH #OKXOrbitTopics .$AAPL Damn it! This AAPL dump looks so fake, purely technical manipulation by the big players forcibly dumping, no effort to hide the shakeout intention. Guys, look at this candlestick, the 325.13 level broke down with heavy volume, all moving averages were pierced, a classic tactic to force people off their positions. Take my advice, don’t rush to bottom-fish, the manipulators aren’t done playing yet. My plan is to lightly short around 325.13, stop loss at 328.5, keep position under 20%, wait for it to trigger panic selling. For those wanting to secretly lay traps, click the token market card below and watch the order book flow yourself. This is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk, please control your position size and bear your own profit and loss.👇👇👇Recently, gold has sharply retreated from the near $4000 high. The short-term selling pressure mainly comes from liquidity tightening and margin calls triggered by the sharp drop in the US stock market. The US-Iran conflict has further intensified oil prices and inflation expectations, suppressing gold's performance. However, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand still provide support. Currently, it looks more like a short-term liquidity shock combined with interest rate pressure, which is not enough to prove the end of gold's long-term upward logic. Key focus remains on the $4000 level, US Treasury real yields, and the US dollar trend.$BCH is building solid bullish traction atop strong support. Reclamation of key levels indicates a powerful push loading. Buy Zone 274.00 - 277.30 EP 277.38 TP 285.00 294.00 305.00 SL 268.50 Buyers are stepping in aggressively to defend every micro-dip. A explosive continuation leg toward upper target zones is ready to trigger. Let's go $BCH Market panic intensifies! Midterm elections disrupt the market, BTC loses the 77,000 level and shifts downward, ETH is on the verge of breaking support, and ZEC faces a brutal plunge despite the upgrade countdown! The real market truth: Good news approaching but prices fall instead of rise, which is the biggest sign of weakness! ZEC has only two days left before a major upgrade, yet funds are not rushing in but collectively withdrawing, fully indicating extremely cautious market sentiment. Coupled with continuous institutional outflows, the overall market is completely under pressure. $BTC: around $76,943, down 2.24% in 24h Completely broke below the 77,000 integer level, short-term trend turns weak. ETF net outflow is a large $643 million, IBIT single market outflow is $234 million, institutional selling pressure continues to ferment. Currently, 76,300 is the only buffer support; if weakness continues, further bottom testing will occur. Only by holding above 77,500 can the current weak pattern end. $ETH: around $2,254, down 2.50% in 24h Repeatedly hovering around the critical 2,250 support level, precarious. In the past five days, ETF cumulative outflow reached $431 million, continuous capital bleeding without relief. Once support breaks, the price will directly target the low of 2,200, with heavy resistance at 2,300 above, and no short-term recovery momentum. $ZEC: around $1,139, down 11.03% in 24h The weakest asset in the market! The NU7 upgrade is about to launch, a hardcore benefit that triples block speed, yet it cannot stop the bearish selling pressure. #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Circle Earnings Preview ☆ Analysts expect Q3 revenue to be about $789 million, an increase of approximately $87 million quarter-over-quarter. However, there is no significant expansion in USDC scale, making the source of growth a focal point. ☆ Circle anticipates confirming about $180 million in ARC presale revenue in the second half of the year as product milestones are met; how much is recognized in Q3 will affect subsequent revenue continuity. ☆ Q2 reserve income was about $668 million, serving as the revenue base; USDC scale and reserve yield jointly impact interest income. ☆ Q2 distribution and trading costs were about $412 million, leaving approximately 41% of revenue retained after deductions; the proportion of USDC within the platform is a key variable to observe channel dependency. ☆ On October 29, USDC circulation dropped to about $70 billion, below the main fluctuation range of Q3; Q4 revenue expectations rely more on capital inflows or other income.Additional purchases were also made tonight in our more risky spot portfolio. From October 2025. On October 19, an update was given on this portfolio stating that out of 19 assets, 6 had moved into a stable uptrend on the weekly timeframe. By the time of the night purchases, 7 out of 19 assets had done so. #FIL, #ICP, #STRK, #W, #TIA, #CFX, #TWT. Additional purchases were made for all of them. Overall, as announced many times, additional purchases were made for these assets for the same amount as the first time in October 2026. As can be seen, this is immediately significant $DOGE is awakening with powerful bullish surge potential. Tight consolidation is coiling up for a massive burst. Buy Zone 0.0740 - 0.0753 EP 0.0753 TP 0.0785 0.0820 0.0865 SL 0.0718 Persistent demand keeps sweeping up liquidity below. Once momentum triggers the next leg up, expect heavy acceleration toward peak targets. Let's go $DOGE #OKXOrbitTopics . $PAXG Support Bounce Bullish Momentum Building. Leverage: 10x Max Trade Setup: Long Entry: 3955 – 3980 SL: 3905 TP1: 4025 TP2: 4065 TP3: 4110 Price rejected the 3889 low with strong buyer absorption and is now holding the 3940–3960 zone as support. Momentum has shifted to the bulls with consecutive green 4H candles, giving high probability of continuation toward the next resistance cluster. Buy and Trade $PAXG #PalantirQ3 revenue grew 96%, but stock price fell instead of rising Palantir's core summary of the Q3 fiscal 2026 report is as follows: 1. Record performance: Q3 revenue was $2.313 billion (up 96% year-over-year), net profit was $1.128 billion (up 137% year-over-year), both exceeding expectations. 2. Historic milestone: U.S. commercial business revenue ($984 million) surpassed U.S. government business ($953 million) for the first time, becoming the primary growth driver. 3. Guidance significantly raised: Full-year revenue guidance raised to $8.53 billion, Q4 revenue guidance (about $2.65 billion) far exceeding market expectations. 4. Stock price "dies in the light": Despite the strong performance, the after-hours stock price dropped nearly 3%. 5. Core reasons for the decline: - Overvaluation: With a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 140 times, the market demands "stunning" results rather than just "excellent"; the beat has already been priced in. - Leading indicators slowing: Total contract value (TCV) declined quarter-over-quarter, and the pace of acquiring long-term orders slowed, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth. I've never understood one thing: when coins in institutional wallets move from one address to another, why does the whole network immediately start shouting about a crash? Today, BlackRock transferred out 7,244 $BTC and 63,595 $ETH, worth over 500 million and over 100 million dollars respectively, totaling 700 million. The comment section is full of "It's over." But these 700 million worth of coins just changed addresses; not a single coin has entered an exchange. The real selling only counts when it reaches the exchange; before that, it's just moving house. To put it bluntly, when we transfer money ourselves, no one thinks we're going bankrupt.I browse crypto prediction markets, and now I usually first check if there's someone to take over when I want to exit. It's quite different from the usual buying and selling of Bitcoin; besides judging whether an event will happen, I also have to consider whether to wait until settlement. Some markets have odds that look quite certain, but the bid-ask spread is very wide, so I don't dare to treat that probability as market consensus. Even if I'm right, I might not be able to exit early at the price shown on the screen; I have to stick with it until the result, and hardly anyone pays attention to the orders placed.Last night I came across a set of numbers: BlackRock transferred out 7,244 $BTC and 63,595 $ETH within one day. Based on that day's market price, that's $558.3 million and $144.2 million respectively, totaling over $700 million for the two transactions combined. The same institution, the same time window, two transactions in the same direction. Breaking it down is even more interesting. The BTC transaction is over half a billion, the ETH one over a hundred million, both in the hundred-million range. This shows it’s not just casually moving a small amount, but two major assets moving together. However, the term "outflow" is easily misread as a sell-off. On-chain, what we see is just address transfers. Custodial wallets moving to another address could be product redemption settlements, a change of custodian, or just internal consolidation. Real selling pressure only counts when coins enter exchange hot wallets. One notable point is the synchronicity. $BTC and $ETH moved simultaneously, both over a hundred million. Individual large clients rarely rebalance this neatly; this scale looks more like product-level operations rather than a spontaneous decision. My judgment: In the short term, don’t interpret this as a dump signal, nor dismiss it as noise. It indicates that holders of this scale can relocate positions massively within a day, and market depth isn’t as stable as imagined. A point worth pondering: If custodial coins can quietly move over $700 million like this, how much reference value do those whale holding rankings we usually watch really have? In the next 48 hours, watch the next hops of these two addresses.The recent rally in the US stock market is just handing the bears a gift, $BTC can't get above 77670 to 78254, it's just a paper tiger, $ETH at 2294 with RSI already at 73, why chase it? $ZEC at 1199 with negative fees clearly shows no one wants to catch the falling knife. About this US stock rally, I have one thing to say: it's a gift to the bears. BTC current price 77665, only up 0.01% in 24 hours, hasn't even touched the daily high of 78254, is this a breakout? It's a fake revival. RSI is only 65, not high, but the price is stuck just below the Bollinger upper band at 77484, MA7 and MA25 are both hovering around 77000, bulls have no strength to push higher. If it can't get above 77670 to 78254, it's just a paper tiger, don't be fooled by this small bullish candle to chase longs. ETH is even more ridiculous, current price 2294, RSI directly hits 73.1, it’s stomping on the Bollinger upper band at 2283, overbought, 24h high only 2304, chasing longs now is just handing the chips to the main players. The fee rate is still positive at 0.01%, bulls are extremely crowded, any slight disturbance will trigger a chain of liquidations. ZEC at 1199 with negative fees, obviously no one wants to catch the fall, bears are pressing down hard, don’t bottom fish, if you do, you’re catching a flying knife. My stance is clear: BTC rebound in the 77700-78254 range is a shorting opportunity, if it can’t hold above 78254, don’t talk about bulls; I won’t chase ETH longs when it’s overbought, wait for a pullback to 2260-2270 to see if there’s a chance to buy the dip. At this position, chasing longs is for suckers, chasing shorts is smart.#Anthropic's revenue surged 1127%, can it support a high IPO valuation? Anthropic's IPO cut down to 1.5 trillion: Is the market out of money? Last week's tech stock sell-off directly changed the script for Anthropic's IPO pricing. Institutional investors have been saying these days that the valuation at listing by the end of the month shouldn't aim for 2 trillion, 1.5 to 1.6 trillion is about right. It sounds like a price cut, but it's actually a reflex after thoroughly scrutinizing the prospectus. Q3 revenue was 16.956 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 47%, while Q2 quarter-on-quarter was 144%. ARR rose from 65 billion to 67 billion and then basically leveled off. On the other hand, computing power costs soared 77% quarter-on-quarter to 9.9 billion, of which 5 billion was short-term computing power bought at a temporary high price, directly turning operating profit from Q2's +974 million to Q3's -567 million. The total computing power commitment is 895.4 billion, with about 69.8 billion to be paid in the next 12 months. Is it a change in risk appetite or a slowdown in growth? Both. Risk appetite is the hand pulling the trigger, growth slowdown is the bullet. The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, and the patience of funds for "burning money to buy growth" is visibly shrinking. But fundamentally, this Q3 ledger makes the "retreat price" of 1.5 trillion not look cheap — it still corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio over 40 times the past four quarters' revenue, a multiple that very few IPOs in history can sustain. My view is simple: you can consider the new listing, but don't take the "first-day jump" as a fundamental turnaround#Triển vọng báo cáo tài chính Palantir: Tăng trưởng cao có thể hỗ trợ định giá cao không The future development of Palantir centers on the speed of switching its growth engine and whether it can outpace valuation contraction. On the growth side, the engine is shifting from government to commercial. In Q2 2026, U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year; at this growth rate, Q3 commercial revenue will surpass government revenue for the first time. CICC raised its 2026/2027 revenue forecasts to $8.22 billion/$11.77 billion; Citigroup expects 53% revenue growth in 2027 and 67% growth in the commercial segment, both above Wall Street consensus. The U.S. Army's Maven contract increased by $618 million, and NATO's sole-source procurement was secured, indicating the government base remains stable. However, valuation remains the biggest constraint. The current stock price corresponds to about 61 times 2026 revenue and 40 times 2027 revenue. RBC bluntly states "leaves no room for disappointment." CICC's target price implies only about 3% upside, maintaining a "neutral" rating. In the next 1–2 years, Palantir's revenue is very likely to continue high growth, but the stock price is more likely to "buy time to gain space" rather than further expand valuation.Affected by the U.S. midterm elections, the crypto market is experiencing severe volatility due to the dual impact of macro-political uncertainty and net capital outflows. The deep impact of the midterm elections on the market mainly manifests in three dimensions: 1. Macro and market dynamics: expectation digestion and sentiment realization 1. Historical patterns and risk release: On the eve of the election, driven by risk aversion sentiment, the market often experiences a defensive pullback of 5%–10%. Long leverage liquidations are part of a reshuffle process under extreme uncertainty. 2. Prediction markets and the boot dropping: Prediction markets have priced in the political landscape with high probability. After political uncertainties are resolved, short-term risk aversion sentiment release is conducive to phased market recovery. 3. Cycle and macro mainline resonance: Midterm elections usually occur in the mid-to-late stages of the Bitcoin halving cycle. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate path, global liquidity, and U.S. stock risk appetite have a more decisive effect on medium- to long-term trends than a single political election. 2. Capital and technical aspects: capital redemption and key defensive lines 1. ETF capital flows: Large single-day net outflows from spot ETFs reflect institutional cautiousness before the election. The key is whether ETF capital can resume net inflows after the voting day. 2. $BTC key structural support: The $70,000–$71,000 range is the mental defensive line maintaining the overall bull market structure; the $75,000–$76,400 range is the key support of moving averages and lower bounds. Losing this may trigger a secondary bottom test. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Chart spread out, count the lights yourself $BTC support at 76,260, which is the bottom of the lower shadow on 10/30 and also the floor of the recent box; if it really breaks, look down for a deep retracement to 74,735, that's the second boot. Overhead resistance at 81,944, the top of the long upper shadow on 10/29, it tries to break through but gets pushed back each time. The chart also shows two rebound paths: T1 79,383, T2 81,125 — note, these are escape routes drawn for the bulls, not your buy points. The moving averages are the most interesting part today. MA3 at 77,417, MA5 at 77,473, both above the current price of 76,822, short-term moving averages pressing down on the price, this is called a bearish alignment just starting and not yet finished. So as long as the rebound touches the 77,400-77,600 range, that is the battleground between the moving averages and the previous day's close, and also the most comfortable platform for short positions. There is also the descending pressure line, connecting 81,944 on 10/29 to 78,831 on 11/01, today pressing down near 78,388. The price has been hovering below it for four days; on 11/01 it surged to 78,831 once but was pushed back, indicating someone is really defending this line. The stop loss for short positions is set at 78,250, just inside this line — if hit, it means the opponent held the line, and you admit defeat and exit.#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Nonfarm payrolls are coming this Friday. The market expects an increase of 60,000 to 65,000 jobs, a clear rebound from September's 29,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. If the data falls within this consensus range of 60,000 to 65,000, employment is neither strong nor collapsing, which is the most comfortable scenario for the Federal Reserve—neither bad enough to abandon rate hikes nor good enough to accelerate them. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December remains between 75% and 85%, and this figure is likely to hold. What would really loosen rate hike expectations is data significantly below expectations, such as dropping below 30,000; conversely, if it surges above 100,000, rate hike expectations will be further cemented. So nonfarm payrolls are not the referee for "whether to hike or not," but the weight tipping "which way expectations lean." On the crypto side, the market will likely continue to consolidate before the data release. BTC is around 77,000 to 78,000, with 76,000 as a short-term key support; breaking below that points to 75,000. The resistance zone is between 78,000 and 80,000, and only reclaiming 80,000 would indicate structural improvement. ETH is near 2,280 to 2,300, with 2,250 as the short-term lifeline. Resistance layers from 2,320 to 2,350 are pressing down; a rebound without volume is a correction, not a reversal. SOL is in the 92 to 94 range, with 90 to 95 as a critical area to watch. If it doesn't hold above 96.9, the bearish structure remains unchanged. Do you think this nonfarm payrolls report will fall within the consensus range or surprise the market? Let's discuss in the comments $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SNDK 【SNDK Deep V Reversal, Be Cautious When Chasing Long!】 Pre-market bulls are strong, pulling from 1069 all the way up to 1135, directly forming a V-shaped reversal to reclaim lost ground. Looking at the 15-minute chart, the price has hit the upper Bollinger Band (1137), and the KDJ indicator has entered a severe overbought zone (K=81). Although the SAR indicator is turning upward, showing strong support, the short-term deviation rate is large, indicating a need for a pullback and correction. Strategy: Do not chase the price at current levels; be cautious of a spike followed by a drop. The first resistance is at 1144, with support at 1128 and 1112 (middle band). Wait for volume to shrink and a stable pullback before considering entry, with a stop loss at 1104. Did you catch the bottom of this deep V? 👇 #SNDK #USStocks🔥#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Brothers, the nonfarm payrolls are coming soon, and this data will directly affect the expectations for a rate hike in December 👀. Currently, the market pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in December is between 72% and 85%, with expectations quite high. The October nonfarm payrolls are expected to add about 65,000 jobs, compared to the previous 29,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. In short, as long as the data doesn't disappoint, or even slightly exceeds expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will be supported, which will suppress risk assets like BTC. Right now, BTC is hovering around 77,000 to 78,000, with 76,000 to 77,000 as the core bottom support, and whether 78,600 can hold is the short-term dividing line. At this kind of nonfarm payrolls node, the biggest fear is a double-sided spike around the data release, cutting both longs and shorts. If you have positions, don't just focus on betting on the direction based on the data; leave enough room for error 💡$BTC 🔷 CryptoX-ray #28: $EDGE −91% from peak, volume 6% Cap ~$20.5M, FDV ~$75M, circulating 27.4% of supply. Red flag: team (27.21%) and investors (14.64%) have 12-month cliff and 24-month linear vesting. Aggregators show buyback and income to holders, but this does not grant payout rights. Verdict: discounts exist, demand not proven. Waiting for confirmed buybacks. Ready for −30%. Will discounts hold the price or will vesting crush it? 👇After this Binance hacker incident, there's a number I only noticed today. Its user protection fund SAFU, has already spent half of its BTC. In February this year, the fund had about 15,000 BTC. Now only about 7,500 remain. At BTC's current price of around $77,000, the remaining BTC is worth about $580 million. In other words: To handle this $6.3 billion hacker incident, Binance has really started tapping into its “safe.” What's even more interesting is, Binance had previously set a rule: If the SAFU fund's value falls below $800 million due to BTC price drops, it must be replenished. Now the fund is below $800 million. But this time it's not because BTC dropped in value, it's because the money was actually spent. So next, I'm quite curious about one question: When exactly will Binance replenish this fund back to around $1 billion? That says more than just shouting “It's back to normal.” #BTC #Binance #SAFU #Bitcoin #CryptoCommunity Brothers, I don't know if you were scared off, but I certainly wasn't. I'm still holding tightly onto this wave of long positions on the big coin. Last night's sharp drop, $BTC fell straight from 68000 to around 65000, that plunge was extremely fierce. I guess many long traders got liquidated by that big bearish candle and ran away. But I posted at the time saying this was definitely a violent shakeout by Wall Street's main players! Looking back at the 1-hour candlestick, a super deep V reversal pulled back directly to 66800, with MA20 and MA60 firmly supporting the bottom, the daily bullish trend is completely intact! And looking at the data, ETF funds are still continuously flowing in, macro expectations for rate cuts remain, and the big trend is still upward. On the news front, Bitcoin's ecosystem and Layer 2 underlying technologies are still being continuously developed. The fundamentals haven't broken, the technical shakeout is over, what do we have to fear? My long position entered at 64800, held from start to finish, is now steadily earning +30% profit (with leverage). Next strategy: hold the longs tightly, get ready to welcome new highs! Set the defensive bottom line to 65500, lock in profits. The first target above is a breakthrough at 67500; if it holds, we directly look at the 70000 milestone! The horn of the bulls' counterattack has already sounded, hold your chips well, let's keep flying! #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $SOL What's going on with the market these days? Let's set the background first. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.25%, with lithium battery and AI concepts both jumping. The US stock market isn't so lucky; AI return anxiety flared up again, with the Nasdaq down 1.07% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 3%. Tech stocks have been lined up to get hit since 10/30. Back to the crypto world. $BTC fell 2.23% in 24 hours, currently priced at 76,822, with a 7-day range of 76,260-81,944, basically giving back the gains from the long upper shadow on 10/29. $ETH was more obedient, down 2.58% at 2,249, with a range of 2,171.52-2,391.16. We need to break down the sentiment here. $BTC funding rate daily average is +0.0095%, latest +0.010%, meaning longs are still paying shorts daily — this isn't a sign of prosperity, it's like a crowd stuck at the door unable to get out. On the position side, it's more straightforward: open interest is 3.63 billion USD, with a net outflow of 116.6M in the latest day, but a cumulative net inflow of 297.1M over ten days. The price dropped from 81,944 to 76,260, yet positions increased by nearly 300 million, indicating that the added positions are shorts, not buyers stepping in. Two extra uncertainties: the US midterm elections vote is tomorrow, and Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm are releasing earnings reports this week. With risk events piling up, don't overleverage.I've always had a question: On-chain accounts keep shouting "whale transfers into exchanges" every day. Does transferring in mean they want to sell? Today is the same, 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH moved into Coinbase Prime within an hour, worth 700 million USD, looks scary. But Coinbase Prime is an institutional custody channel. Money from firms like BlackRock naturally goes through this line; subscriptions, redemptions, and portfolio adjustments all happen inside. Retail investors deposit coins to sell, institutions move funds into custody—who knows. If they really want to dump, you look at the order book and trades, not just a transfer screenshot.One hour, 700 million USD. BlackRock transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH into Coinbase Prime. As soon as the numbers came out, the first reaction in the group was "They're about to sell." Hold on, this situation needs to be analyzed on two levels. First, look at the structure. 7,244 BTC equals 558 million USD, 63,600 ETH equals 143 million USD, roughly a four-to-one ratio. This position movement is mainly in $BTC, with $ETH just a small portion. If they were really liquidating, concentrating the heaviest chips into one address doesn't make much sense. Next, consider the channel. Coinbase Prime is not a retail account; it provides custody, settlement, and subscription/redemption services for institutions. BlackRock's products require buying coins when subscriptions come in and sending coins out when redemptions occur. Changes in ETF shares ultimately reflect as inflows and outflows in the custody address. So a single "transfer in" record could mean preparing to sell or just completing a purchase. What can verify the direction is not the transfer itself, but the subsequent traces: whether spot net inflows continuously increase, whether there are large orders above the market, and whether funding rates turn positive. Right now, there is only one transfer. This should be read more as "institutional positions are moving," not "a drop is imminent." What’s worth pondering is: why is the same transfer more often treated as bearish news than bullish? We are sensitive to "inflows to exchanges" but numb to "outflows from exchanges." This bias itself is a cost.Is the $COIN security incident a trust opportunity for Coinbase or an industry-wide contraction risk? Exchange accidents highlight the importance of compliant custody, potentially granting COIN a relative trust premium; however, security concerns may also reduce user trading and holdings. If institutional custody, subscription services, and market share remain stable, business resilience strengthens. The opposing view is that a market downturn suppresses transaction revenue; if assets and trading volume both shrink, the relative advantage is still inevitably affected by the cycle. Tracking custody assets, net inflows, and non-trading income, the security narrative cannot replace verification of the revenue structure. When further confirming, I will separate market expectations, revenue realization, and cash flow quality; at least two of these must align over multiple subsequent reporting periods before adjusting the medium-term judgment. If there is only a one-time message or single-quarter fluctuation, valuation recovery still needs verification. Good evening everyone, let's talk about the market. It seems quite a few people are very concerned about the midterm elections. Well, I think there's no need to be overly worried. This afternoon, I analyzed the market background of $BTC price movements during every midterm election. For this year's midterm election, sticking rigidly to old methods seems a bit foolish to me. Be bold in your positioning; what you need to do is focus on the technicals. We are still watching the 76000 and 75000 levels; as long as they are not broken, fantasizing about the market is useless. I've already entered half of my long positions in $MSTR and $PURR. Today, I continue to add to my Purr position. Why add more? Because the price is still moving within my bullish logic, and when it dips, it gives an opportunity, so I add more. Pay less attention to the news; with that time, you'd better improve your technical analysis skills. Alright, the market is still moving as we expected, so there's not much to explain. Whether it starts with 76 or 75, I think it's okay to add positions. Note, the range is a bit small; we still need to see a price breakout above the trendline to confirm an upward trend.Nearly 100 million "ghost chips" looming: The real culprit behind CORE's continuous decline is not the market, but a collapse of trust As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, with a 24-hour drop of approximately 11.5%, a 7-day drop of about 29%, a circulating market cap of around $12.48 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.09 million, having retraced over 99% from its historical peak. What truly crushed the price is not the market, but nearly 100 million ghost chips. At the end of October, the Bitcoin dual staking protocol b14g was attacked, affecting about 97 million CORE. On November 3, the Core network executed a hard fork, recovering about 68.15 million tokens, approximately 70.2% of the affected amount. However, the recovered tokens have not yet been distributed to affected users, exchange-frozen funds have not been returned, and there is currently no official compensation process. Earlier in September, the Core network urgently hard forked due to a validator reward vulnerability, with the top five exchanges including Coinbase simultaneously suspending deposits and withdrawals. The official approach is to upgrade forward without rolling back the ledger; key data such as the scale of over-issuance and whether tokens have entered the secondary market have not been fully disclosed to date. The two incidents combined directly undermine the BTCFi narrative. The premise of Bitcoin on-chain finance is security and trustworthiness, but with CORE repeatedly experiencing reward vulnerabilities, protocol attacks, hard fork recoveries, and unclear distributions, the market naturally questions: can on-chain assets truly be protected? More troubling is the total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, a circulation rate of about 48%, and mining rewards that decay annually and will be released over 81 years, meaning supply pressure will persist long-term. Today I'm putting my words out there: I've always believed in shorting. Even with the mid-move rebound, I never considered taking profits to buy the dip! Brothers, look at the current $BTC order book, the big coin has softened again, the current price directly dropped to 77331! This rebound from the bottom is all bark and no bite, it can't even touch the ironclad 78000 level, purely a pump-and-dump trap by the dog whales. Look at the data, long-short ratio is 65% to 35%, on the order book above from 77332.6 to 77331.1, sell orders are still heavily stacked, with 8.05 units directly placed at 77331.1. The bulls are stubbornly holding on to buy the dip, but above is dense selling pressure, the main funds have no intention to come in and save it. Against the absolute bearish trend, these 65% retail bulls are our best fuel. Our short position laid out at the high of 78054 is now steadily holding a 2.80% floating profit, with 0.65U already taken. The worst thing in trading is being a fence-sitter; since we've identified the big trend is down, all the deep V reversals and quick bull rebounds are just noise to ignore. Don't blindly buy the dip, catching longs now is like catching flying knives. Hold the shorts tight, let the profits keep flying, we'll just wait for this bull run to completely collapse and see how deep it can fall! $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ But here's the real question: Even if the prediction comes true, can you actually make money from the journey? Trading is never just about predicting a future price. It's about having the courage to make a calculated prediction, building a strategy, and executing it with discipline. The market rewards you when you're right. When you're wrong, your job is to control the damage, protect your capital, and stay in the game. Bold predictions are easy. Managing risk while waiting for them to happen isIf you only view this midterm election as news, you might miss a repricing of risk appetite. Have you noticed that the market is already trading the "policy package" in advance? I felt a bit emotional while reviewing the data these past two days: the crypto industry is not just standing on the sidelines this time. Three super PACs have poured about $170 million into the congressional elections. This figure itself is more worth watching than "who wins or loses" because it shows the industry is using real money to buy certainty in the legislative environment. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, about one-third of the Senate is being renewed, and once the power structure changes, the pace of fiscal, tax, and digital asset regulation will also change, and pace is the variable most sensitive to price. What I care more about is the transmission path, not the result itself. Election → control of Congress → legislative expectations → risk appetite. In this chain, the market often trades the "expectation gap" first, rather than waiting for policies to be implemented. If the result points to a divided government, it may be interpreted in the short term as increased policy uncertainty, volatility rising, BTC and ETH taking pressure first, with altcoins more obvious because their valuations rely more on narrative and marginal funds; but if division means radical regulation is hard to advance, the medium term might actually leave a milder survival space for crypto, with funds slowly probing high-beta sectors from defensive large caps. Conversely, if one side controls both chambers, policy advancement is smoother, but regulatory direction may also be clearer and faster to implement, and this "certainty" is not necessarily all good for risk assets. One easily overlooked point: the $170 million investment has already priced in the "favorable legislation" part in advance Stablecoin Market Cap Plummets: On-Exchange Ammo is Decreasing CryptoQuant data: The total market cap of stablecoins has shrunk continuously from the May peak of about 278 billion, recently accelerating its decline, falling below 262 billion, hitting a new phase low. Many people only focus on the K-line and ignore this line. Stablecoin market cap = inventory of on-exchange purchasing power. Its decline means real money is leaving — not rotating from BTC to altcoins, but converting back to fiat and withdrawing from this market. Looking at BTC again: it has fallen from 85K in October to around 77K. Price drops and ammo decrease simultaneously, a double confirmation of weakness, not a shakeout. Can the next rebound be trusted? Don’t look at sentiment, just focus on one number: Total stablecoin market cap stops falling and starts to rise. If the ammo doesn’t return, any rebound is just an empty shot. Even if the price is still bottoming, ammo returning means real money is re-entering. Hold your hands, wait for the ammo reserve to be replenished first. #BTC #Stablecoin Macro Background: This Week is a "Minefield of Events" The midterm elections on November 3rd are the first variable. The election results directly affect the prospects for advancing crypto regulatory legislation (especially the CLARITY Act), and changes in the congressional landscape will reprice regulatory uncertainty. The November 6th non-farm payrolls report is the real "switch" this week. Several Federal Reserve officials (including Logan) have clearly stated that at least two more 25bp hikes are expected this year, and the market pricing for a December rate hike remains above 70%. Employment data here presents an asymmetry of "pain either way": strong employment → high rates suppress valuations, weak employment → recession hits risk assets. Before the non-farm payrolls release, the 76K–78K range of oscillation is very likely to continue. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen from a high level back into the fear zone, and emotional recovery also requires time. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $BTC $ETH BlackRock ETF large transfer of coins into the exchange, withdrawing coins to the exchange at this time, before the US stock market opens? Could it be that institutions have foreseen a downward trend? The BlackRock ETF-related address transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH to Coinbase Prime in a short period, with a total value of up to $702.25 million Such a large-scale asset transfer into the exchange, the next move is hard to predict Pay attention to the possibility of subsequent fund cash-outs, especially before the US stock market opens For those who haven't entered long positions, I suggest waiting a bit longer; those holding profits can cash out some first and keep some to continue participating in market fluctuations. Those trapped should pay attention to risk control and stop-loss points #加密行业协同守护资产安全 When I look at the prediction market for Bitcoin's price fluctuations, I always wonder: when big money comes in, is it changing the odds or the actual outcome? When there are few orders, a large order can skew the odds, but that doesn't mean the event is actually very likely to happen. Unlike directly buying the coin, here there are cutoff times and settlement conditions. Money can push the odds, but it doesn't necessarily move Bitcoin's price. But what if the prediction happens to be the coin price at a certain point in time, and a whale goes to influence the spot market? Can that result still be considered a pure guess?$BTC Fellow retail investors, today is the official voting day for the US midterm elections. JPMorgan has already calculated four possible outcomes clearly, and I'll explain them in plain language. The first scenario: the Democrats take both the House and Senate, with a 66% probability, which is the most likely outcome. But this result might not necessarily cause a rise; the S&P could at most go up 0.5%, or might even dip slightly by 0.25%. With full Democratic control, AI industry regulation is likely to tighten, data center expansion could be restricted, and tech stocks may face short-term pressure. However, don't scare yourself too much; even if legislation is introduced, it might not override a presidential veto, so a pullback could actually be a buying opportunity. Additionally, fiscal spending will tighten, long-term US Treasury yields will decline, and bonds will relatively strengthen. Another point: executives of companies with financial ties to Trump may face numerous congressional investigations later. The second scenario: divided government, Democrats hold the House, Republicans hold the Senate, with a 26% probability. This situation basically means policy gridlock; no side can easily make big moves, so the market tends to be more stable, and the S&P could rise between 0.5% and 1%. US Treasury yields will also decline, but the risk of corporate investigations remains. The third scenario: Republicans hold both chambers, with only a 7% probability, but this is the most favorable for US stocks. If it happens, the S&P will likely surge 1% to 1.25%, and tech stocks can breathe easier since new regulatory pressure will be minimal. The downside is that fiscal spending might continue to increase, US Treasury yields will rise, and tensions in the Middle East could flare up again. The fourth scenario: reverse divided government, Republicans control the House, Democrats control the Senate, conc#Pratinjau Laporan Keuangan Palantir: Apakah Pertumbuhan Tinggi Bisa Mendukung Penilaian Tinggi apakah ini akan menjadi sejarahTether's CEO said they hold about 150,000 BTC, worth roughly $11.5 billion at current prices. Interestingly, the company's Q3 reserve report only accounts for about 100,000 BTC; the missing 50,000 BTC were not disclosed where or when they were purchased, so this does not equal "newly bought 50,000 BTC". My view: don't rush to see this as bullish news. When the market is trending down, statements like "we are very rich" are most easily used as emotional comfort. What’s more worth noting is that the excess reserves in the report rose from $4.1 billion to $7.95 billion; this buffer is more concrete than just saying "honest work." A note for ordinary people: verbal figures from stablecoin issuers and numbers in audit reports should be viewed separately. #Bitcoin #Stablecoin#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, with hardware sales holding steady and the new CEO's first revenue report passing muster. However, the market is focused on risks, as next quarter's gross margin guidance is under pressure, mainly due to rising prices of memory chips, combined with increased Siri AI cloud computing costs, and the near end of low-cost component inventory consumption. Revenue looks good, but profitability is under pressure. Going forward, the key focus will be on product price increases, supply chain cost control capabilities, and the resilience of the services business, which are crucial for valuation.The U.S. midterm elections officially kicked off today. The latest data from Kalshi shows that the Democratic Party has a 76% chance of taking the Senate and an even higher 94% chance of winning the House of Representatives. If this prediction comes true, it would mean a fundamental reversal of the political landscape in Washington, and the crypto industry stands right in the eye of the storm. First, the legislative pathway will be completely frozen. Over the past two years, the Republican-led Congress passed the GENIUS Act and pushed the CLARITY Act through the House, but the latter has stalled in the Senate due to controversies over stablecoin rewards and ethics provisions. If the Democrats regain the Senate, Elizabeth Warren will become chair of the Banking Committee, and her sharpest weapon will be subpoena power. Wintermute's policy director expects she will focus on scrutinizing the OCC's approvals of new bank charters for Ripple, Coinbase, and World Financial, which is supported by the Trump family. More critically, in the Ohio race, Fairshake PAC has invested $30 million to support pro-crypto Republican Hustad. If former Banking Committee chair Sherrod Brown wins and moves to chair the Agriculture Committee, related crypto legislation could be directly shelved. Second, the market has already voted with its feet in advance. Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 mark today, hitting a 24-hour low of $76,335, and Ethereum dropped to $2,247. This is not panic but a typical wait-and-see volume contraction. HTX #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, with next quarter's gross margin guidance under pressure Apple's fourth fiscal quarter revenue reached $114.48 billion, EPS $2.10, both surpassing market expectations. iPhone and Mac revenues outperformed consensus, service revenue was basically in line with expectations; Greater China revenue was $17.54 billion, slightly below market expectations. After-hours stock price initially rose then fell, with core pressure coming from holiday season profit guidance. The company provided guidance for next quarter revenue growth of 7%-10% year-over-year, but gross margin is expected to be only 45%-46%, down about 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, significantly below market expectations, marking the main negative in this earnings report. Two main drags: first, rising prices of storage chips, with low-cost inventory about to be depleted, leading to increased procurement costs; second, full rollout of Siri AI, with cloud computing power investments continuously eroding profits. Overall, Apple's hardware consumer base remains solid, with upgrade demand and ecosystem foundation supporting long-term value; however, rising supply chain costs and profit pressure during the AI investment phase will be the core challenges for the upcoming peak season. $AAPL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Voting day begins, BTC drops nearly 2% intraday, market sentiment is cautious, the election is not only a political game but also directly affects the direction of crypto regulation. The crypto industry has cumulatively invested over $200 million in political donations, playing a key role in pushing regulatory bills like CLARITY. The current market widely expects the Democratic Party to likely take the House of Representatives, while the Senate outcome remains uncertain. If a divided Congress forms, fiscal expansion will be limited, amplifying risk asset expectation gaps. Historical patterns show that BTC fell 48%, 37%, and 16% respectively before the last three midterm elections, with an average 12-month post-election increase of 53.7%; and the bottoming point gradually approaches the election day (71 days after → 39 days after → 13 days after). However, this time the interest rate hike cycle pressure is superimposed, so historical patterns are only for reference and should not be directly used as trading signals. Asset impact differentiation: BTC is primarily anchored to fiat credit and macro liquidity, with midterm logic unchanged; ETH is more sensitive to regulatory policies and ETF capital, showing greater volatility elasticity. Going forward, focus on tracking Federal Reserve policies, ETF capital flows, global liquidity, and post-election regulatory developments. It is recommended to watch more and trade less before implementation, prioritizing position control. $BTC $ETH Binance had 200,000 Ethereum stolen. On the same day, the exchange actually had 39,000 more Ethereum. Because withdrawals were suspended. Coins could come in, but couldn't go out. Withdrawals only resumed two days later. On November 1st and 2nd, 313,000 were withdrawn. From October 28th to November 2nd, the exchange's Ethereum decreased by 5.4%, nearly 300,000 coins. Seeing this number, the first reaction is always: fewer coins, price will rise. But the price didn't cooperate. It was still 2800 in October, now 2264. There are only two possibilities when coins decrease. Those optimistic are withdrawing coins back to their own wallets. Those fearful don't want to keep coins on the exchange anymore. One is bullish, the other is hedging; the data looks exactly the same. To separate them, just look at one thing: When coins leave, does the price rise? This time, the price is falling. So these 300,000 coins weren't stolen, someone is hiding. Coins left, but no money came in. This is not a price surge, it's a relocation. Is your ETH in the exchange or in your own wallet? $ETHThe valuation anchor of the “true public chain” has shattered: dissecting CORE’s “structural gradual decline,” why are all rebounds traps? As of November 3, 2026, CORE is priced at about $0.012, down approximately 11.5% in 24 hours, down about 29% over 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $12.48 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of about $3.09 million, having retraced over 99% from its historical peak. It is not simply dragged down by the overall market; rather, its valuation anchors are breaking apart. Valuation anchor one: The BTCFi narrative was pierced by security incidents. After the September validator over-issuance bug, five major exchanges including Coinbase simultaneously suspended deposits and withdrawals; at the end of October, the b14g protocol was attacked, affecting 97 million CORE tokens. On November 3, a network hard fork recovered about 68.15 million tokens, but these have not yet been allocated to affected users, and the exchanges’ frozen funds have not been returned. The core premise of BTCFi is “Bitcoin assets securely on-chain,” and these two vulnerabilities directly undermined this premise. Valuation anchor two: Buyback and burn cannot outpace unlocking. The total supply is 2.1 billion tokens, with a circulation rate of about 48%, and mining rewards are released with annual decay over 81 years. Although the 2026 roadmap plans to use BTCFi’s real revenue for buyback and burn, the current protocol revenue scale is too small to offset long-term selling pressure. Valuation anchor three: Liquidity exhaustion. The trading volume is only about $3.09 million; a large sell order can trigger a liquidation cascade, and rebounds lack supporting buy orders. Valuation anchor four: Governance handover brings uncertainty, as control is transferring from the core team to the community, and the decision-making direction remains unclear ETFs are withdrawing, but whales are accumulating. In the past 6 trading days, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $859 million. Just BlackRock's IBIT has had outflows for 10 consecutive days totaling $2.24 billion, corresponding to nearly 36,000 BTC redeemed. However, during the same period, on-chain large holders excluding exchanges and mining pools have increased their holdings to about 3.03 million BTC, with the 30-day accumulation rate hitting the fastest since February 2026. The panic index dropped from 37 to 26 in one day, and long positions liquidated $340 million — yet whale addresses continue to accumulate amid the panic. Why is this worth attention? ETF outflows reflect passive allocation funds reducing positions ahead of macro events, while on-chain accumulation represents mid-to-long-term behavior of self-custodied funds. The opposite directions indicate that BTC's marginal pricing power may be shifting from "paper exposure that can be quickly redeemed" to "spot chips that are not easily moved." Which observation is currently more supported? The data favors chip rotation rather than pure capital flight. But whales are not unified internally; some are accumulating, while others are swapping BTC for ETH, and combined data masks this strategic split. Next, focus on one thing: can the whales' 3.03 million BTC absorb the ETF redemption slope? If they can, the structure will change; if not, panic will continue to be priced in. What do you think about this wave of rotation? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH 【On-Chain Trading Update｜HYPE】 Monitored address 0x940a opened a long position: ▪ Execution price: $84.85 ▪ Transaction amount this time: $637,719.02 ▪ Leverage: 10x Do you think opening a long at this position is early or not? Note: This address has earned over $64,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +68.48%