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#Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ Circle will announce its Q3 earnings at 8 AM Eastern Time on November 4. The focus is whether the growth in USDC scale can translate into retainable earnings; as of 6 PM Taiwan time on November 4, the results have not yet been released. At the end of last quarter, USDC circulation was $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase; combined revenue and reserve income totaled $701 million, up 7% year-over-year, but reserve income only grew by 5%. The company noted that the average circulation increased by 25%, partially offset by a 66 basis point decline in reserve yield, with distribution, trading, and other costs reaching $412 million. This indicates that scale expansion does not necessarily drive profit growth in tandem; interest rates and distribution costs are equally critical. After the earnings release, it will be possible to verify changes in Q3 average circulation, reserve yield, distribution costs, and net profit, distinguishing quarterly data from real-time market prices. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.今天BTC先探到7.57万美元附近后来被拉回7.78万上下 24小时涨了1.7%左右 ETH在2290美元上下涨1.7% 以上是11月4日当天的数据收盘前还会晃以实时为准今天为什么先跌后弹我觉得就像见完对象家长回家路上才发现手心全是汗第一民主党拿下众议院参议院也有进展不确定性落地 BTC从7.6万下方弹回7.8万说白了是利空出尽的一口气不是反转第二大家担心CLARITY这类市场结构法案会被拖慢感情里换了新家长做主不代表婚事黄了只是彩礼要重新谈第三美联储12月加息的概率还在八成上下现货ETF前两天一共流出了10亿美元左右钱变贵了大家就不爱出来约会这个比选举更长期另外一个小细节 SEC这两天连续发了代币分类的补充说明在群里发言不等于你是群主对治理代币是实打实的友好国会慢了监管在走情绪和基本面分开看明日展望方向我不猜猜对是运气猜错是学费技术上看7.6万到7.66万是支撑上方7.95万到8.05万是压力选举利空出尽之后接下来盯的是加息和ETF资金恐慌指数还在30多偏谨慎操作建议 peace不喊单选举夜说的话都不 Election results have landed. The market first took a hit. BTC dropped from 77049 down to 75734.5. That was the low point. Then it pulled back to 78434.5, current price about +1.80%, with a volatility of 3.67%. ETH followed, at 2323.5, about +2.43%. My judgment is simple: that low point was sentiment, not pricing. There is only one reason. When the news came out, those pressing buttons were following the old script—regulation would tighten. After the drop, it was found that no one was stepping in below. The buy side was thin, and the sell side was also thin. So once it pulled, it bounced back. This was not new money entering, but sellers finishing their sales in one go. A volatility of 3.67% is not small. But the price returned above the open. The real information lies on the low side: the selling pressure came in one wave, with no second wave. Therefore, I believe the election factor’s effect on the coin price has been fully explained in this drop and pullback. Using it to explain further rises or falls is just making excuses. If you want to refute me, answer this question directly: Is the 75734.5 low the bottom of this round, or just the first probe? Choose one. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC $ETH $78,389.4, a slight 0.94% increase in 24 hours. The market looks calm on the surface, but the underlying structure is tearing apart. On one side, open interest has dropped to $284.1 billion, the lowest in 12 months, with the leverage accumulated over the past year basically cleared out. On the other side, BTC perpetual funding rate still hangs at +0.0100%, with longs continuing to pay shorts. The 8-hour average rate on some exchanges has already turned negative to -0.0044%, shorts starting to pay longs, but this is localized, not global. Putting these two sets of data together: leverage is gone, but the funding rate hasn’t returned to zero. This is not a classic bottom pattern—the classic bottom is when the funding rate turns negative first, longs pay enough and are willing to concede, then the market truly clears. The current state is closer to "chips have cleared, but those remaining are still holding on." Conditional: if the funding rate does not show a global negative turn soon, the sideways consolidation may last longer than most expect. The macro environment is also uncooperative. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling $1.157 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $734 million of that. The price pulled back from below $76,000 to around $78,000, but ETF buying has not returned. Key resistance levels: 78,500, 77,600. Support levels: 76,500, 75,250. --- ETH: high turnover, low open interest, shorts are holding 🔥🖊 $2,321.88, 24h +1.01%. ETH’s contract structure is more honest and more tangled than BTC’s.I've never quite understood: a company hasn't gone public, its stock price doesn't jump daily, so how did it suddenly become worth $115 billion? The answer is quite simple — a few old shareholders transferred their shares to others, the price was agreed upon, and that price became the default "fair value." The company didn't receive new money, but the label was attached. A year ago it was $75 billion, now it's up 53%, and based on $2.3 billion pre-tax profit, that's nearly 50 times. My first reaction: does this have anything to do with the $BTC I hold? Not really in the short term; it will still fluctuate. But at least it shows that funds willing to pay a high price for the story are still around. It's just that this price was negotiated behind closed doors, and whether the next buyer accepts it once the door opens is another matter.A UK fintech company that has not yet gone public was recently valued at $115 billion by the market through a secondary transfer of existing shares. No new shares were issued, yet the valuation was established first. Looking at the numbers: the market valuation in November 2025 is about $75 billion, an increase of approximately 53% in one year; the pre-tax profit in 2025 is about $2.3 billion, corresponding to nearly 50 times earnings. Such a multiple is almost impossible for a traditional bank, but institutions are willing to pay it for a super app that handles payments, accounts, and credit. Mechanically, this is a secondary market circulation among existing shareholders; no new money enters the company’s books, and the capital structure is not diluted. Two things change: early holders lock in book gains at this price level; the valuation discovery function partially shifts from public issuance and listing review to a closed private secondary market. Regulators do not see a whole but rather business bricks: payment transfers fall under payment institutions or electronic money institutions, quasi-accounts have a separate set of client fund reserve requirements, and once it involves quasi-deposits, it must answer which license governs it. Adding crypto asset services, the EU requires client asset segregation, separate licensing, and enhanced disclosure. Therefore, the meaning of the $115 billion is not successful financing but that pricing power has been handed over to a group of leading institutions, while regulatory standards have simultaneously advanced. The price is first set in a closed market before discussing the public market, where ordinary investors receive either a discount or the residual value after others have locked in gains.$BTC Observation: Spot ETF has had outflows for 3 consecutive days totaling $1.16 billion, but single-day outflow has shrunk to $116 million BTC currently at $78,416, up 1.78% in 24 hours, recovering from $75,734 intraday, ETF still experiencing outflows, price has first stopped falling Reviewing these three days: October 30 outflow $643 million, November 2 $399 million, November 3 $116 million, single-day scale about 71% less than the previous day (SoSoValue) On November 3, BlackRock IBIT outflow $94.98 million, while Bitwise BITB, Fidelity FBTC, and Morgan Stanley MSBT had net inflows Bitwise research head Dragosch believes this is a short-term hedge after the Binance hack, not a structural institutional withdrawal; none of the 15 institutions they surveyed reduced their ETF exposure Fear & Greed Index rose from 26 to 34, still in the fear zone; before outflows turn to inflows, staying above 78,000 is not yet confirmed. #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 AMD guidance of 17 billion shatters expectations, after-hours surged to 530 then gave back half, I’m not chasing. Q3 revenue 13.38 billion USD, market expected 13.06 billion; adjusted EPS 2.09, expected 1.95. Data center revenue nearly doubled to 8.55 billion, a new high. Q4 guidance about 17 billion (±3%), market only expected 16.23 billion, midpoint year-over-year +66%. In October AMD fell 17.5%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was down 15.4% in the same period. From the 10/6 high of 658.52 to the 11/2 low of 466.07, a pullback of about 29%. On 11/3 closed at 484.47 (+3.8%), after-hours peaked at 530.38, before 8 PM Eastern returned to around 508. I think the earnings report is solid, the guidance is truly strong. But the after-hours surge and pullback shows the market is still afraid of an AI capital expenditure bubble; one earnings report can’t turn the whole sector’s sentiment. I observe and don’t chase; regular session must hold above 520 (10/30 high) to consider the gap fill recovered, MA20 and MA50 still pressuring above 550. If it breaks below 466, this rebound is invalidated. Is the 17 billion guidance ironclad proof AI chips haven’t peaked, or is the after-hours surge and pullback your chance to exit? $AMD $NVDA #美股财报 #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 ETH surged with volume this hour, while BTC lagged slightly at the high point. The afternoon recovery didn't immediately retrace: BTC continued to rise over the next few full hourly candles, and ETH held around 2280. Around 18:00 Beijing time, the spot prices for the two coins were approximately 78401 and 2322.8, nearing their respective 24-hour highs. The earlier statement "repair remains to be verified" can now be updated to say the hourly level continuation is still ongoing. Looking closely at the volume, the situation isn't exactly the same. ETH's last full hourly candle surged to about 2329, with volume clearly above recent averages; BTC reached 78520 in the same hour, but volume did not increase correspondingly. I pay more attention to this divergence: prices rising together does not mean both sides have equally solid follow-through. Before evening, observe from 15 minutes to 1 hour intervals. BTC's support lies between 78300–78340, a zone where recent 15-minute candles repeatedly stopped falling; resistance is between 78520–78562, overlapping the recent swing high and 24-hour high. Only if volume expands and closes above the upper boundary can we consider the repair continuing; if the hourly candle closes below 78300, the high-level hold is questionable. For ETH, support is at 2315–2318, where short-term lows and pullback closes concentrate; resistance is at 2329–2330, where the hourly high and 24-hour high coincide. Holding above this level supports continuation of strength; losing the lower boundary suggests a pullback first. Both coins are near highs, volatility may increase, so be cautious of risk. $BTC $ETH Old Leek Observation｜$OSMO: Burning 55.5 million tokens, why am I not rushing to be bullish? Today, a small-cap target worth paying attention to: Osmosis (OSMO). Osmosis is voting to pass Proposal 1057, planning to permanently burn 55.5 million OSMO from the community fund, pushing the total burned amount over 100 million tokens. This accounts for about 7% of the current supply. But I believe the real point worth studying in this event is not just the "burning benefit". First, look at the changes it has already completed: On October 25, Proposal 1053 passed, stopping new inflation issuance of OSMO, and staking rewards are now provided by protocol revenue. Now Proposal 1057 is ready to permanently burn the 55.5 million OSMO historically accumulated in the community fund. These two events together form a complete Tokenomics story: Stop inflation + permanent burn + staking rewards shift to protocol revenue. But there is a detail that cannot be ignored: These 55.5 million tokens were already in the community fund and did not belong to the daily circulating sell pressure. This burn is more like turning the original "soft burn" into a permanent burn, rather than the market suddenly losing 7% of tradable chips.The number of companies using artificial intelligence has only slightly increased, but spending on AI has doubled. What's going on? According to Menlo Ventures, AI deployment spending is expected to reach $176.8 billion annually by September 2026, up from $33 billion the previous year. The proportion of companies adopting AI has only grown from 55% to 65%. I believe AI agents are changing the game. One employee can run dozens of agents, continuously consuming tokens, without the company needing to hire more staff. But is the efficiency gain worth investing so much money? $BTC $BTC Just saw the price suddenly push above 78,000, which startled me. On the 1-hour chart, the price has consecutively crossed EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100. However, these moving averages are still tangled together on the 1-hour chart, with bullish and bearish MAs twisted into a knot. The short-term surge upward is very fast, but the price is about to hit a bigger barrier overhead. Switching to the 4-hour chart, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 are still neatly aligned downward. All three lines are sloping down, and the current price is just touching the 4-hour EMA50. There are no moving averages supporting the bottom; instead, the overhead MAs are blocking the way. Since the rebound from the low, the price has already pulled about two and a half 4-hour ATRs within a few hours, reaching the moving average resistance zone. Looking upward, just above 78,000 is the high resistance level from 4 hours ago. The 4-hour moving averages are overall sloping downward, and the downtrend structure has not been broken. For the short-term surge to continue upward here, trading volume must keep expanding. I still lean bearish. The price is right against the key 4-hour resistance overhead, with several moving averages pressing down. The expectation is for a downward reversal next. $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 I'M WATCHING A BIG LONG ON $ADA . Price swept the 0.1829 low, then buyers drove it straight back up. ADA trades at 0.1913, just under the 0.1928 high. The 7D and 30D trends are still down, so this is a bounce. A break above 0.1928 opens more upside. The setup holds above 0.1870. A drop below 0.1829 invalidates it. Dip buyers showed up. Now I wait for the break. #DemocratsWinCongress $ZIL Sharding has long been discussed as a potential solution to blockchain scalability challenges. Zilliqa built its technological identity around this approach, making it an interesting project to evaluate from an infrastructure perspective. However, technical differentiation is only one part of success. Developer retention, application quality, network demand, and competition will ultimately determine whether its architecture translates into lasting ecosystem strength.$MASK Social platforms already contain enormous amounts of online interaction, but financial ownership and decentralized identity remain relatively separate from mainstream social experiences. Mask Network explores ways to bring Web3 functionality into existing internet environments. Its broader opportunity depends on whether users genuinely want these features integrated into their daily digital activities. $CELO Mobile accessibility is an important but sometimes overlooked part of cryptocurrency adoption. Celo has positioned its ecosystem around making blockchain-based financial services more accessible through mobile-first experiences. This direction addresses a genuine usability challenge, particularly in regions where traditional financial infrastructure has limitations. Yet meaningful adoption requires more than accessible technology: affordable transactions, reliable applications. BTC intraday low at 76,660.5, less than $400 away from 76,265. Galaxy's Alex Thorn says breaking below 76,000 will end his bullish thesis. Is this line really that critical? 1. News. BTC reported at $77,091.9, down 0.55% in 24 hours, down 4.3% in nearly a week; the 20-day low was $76,265.2, with an intraday low of 76,660.5. Reports cite Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn stating that if it falls below 76,000, his BTC bullish view will fail. The market is also digesting risks related to Mercado Bitcoin and Binance. 2. Capital impact. BTC ETF latest disclosure shows a single-day net inflow of $34.1 million, 5-day net inflow of $406.5 million, 10-day net inflow of $173.6 million; however, there was a report of a single-day outflow of $643 million from ETFs, indicating unstable capital direction. The US dollar index is at 101.81, down 0.07% intraday, gold up 1.59%, fear and greed index down to 26. 3. BTC significance. 76,265 is the recent actual low, while 76,000 is the psychological defense line in market narrative. When these two are close, stop-loss and programmed sell orders tend to trigger concentratedly. If the daily candle closes below 76,000, technical risk will increase; if it quickly recovers to 79,220, it indicates low-level selling pressure has been absorbed. The price level itself is not a conclusion, volume Bitcoin has shown an interesting historical pattern around US midterm elections. Previous cycles experienced significant market weakness around election periods, followed by strong recoveries over the next 12 months. 📊 What Happened in Previous Midterm Cycles? - 2014: Bitcoin reached its market bottom approximately 71 days after the US midterm elections. - 2018: $BTC bottomed around 38 days after Election Day. - 2022: Bitcoin reached its low approximately 13 days after the election. Interesting The US midterm elections have finally produced a sufficiently significant result👀 The Democratic Party has taken control of both the House and Senate, making it clearly more difficult for Trump to push policies over the next two years. What I’m more focused on is the impact on crypto regulation: Over the past two years, the US crypto industry has benefited from a shift in the regulatory environment, with substantial progress in stablecoin legislation, bank access, and related financial products. But with the change in congressional control, subsequent legislation involving market structure and regulatory authority may require more bipartisan compromise. It’s worth noting that the crypto industry has previously supported candidates from both parties, so a Democratic victory doesn’t necessarily mean a complete regulatory shift. For $BTC, there are currently additional issues like security incidents, capital outflows, and overall pressure on risk assets. What I think is truly worth watching next is the new Congress’s attitude toward crypto legislation and whether there will be substantive changes in fiscal policy. The election results are in, but the market’s pricing of them may have only just begun. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Bitcoin experienced significant corrections after previous US midterm elections: 📉 2014: Approximately -58% 📉 2018: Approximately -52% 📉 2022: Approximately -26% Interestingly, each major correction was followed by a temporary market bottom and a recovery. But historical patterns are not guaranteed to repeat. Every cycle has different macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, institutional participation, and market structure. The important question for 2026 isn't simply whether BTC will fall again #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ After the interest rate hike cycle ends, can the stablecoin giant really rely on volume growth to offset the erosion of interest income caused by rate cuts? Circle is about to release its Q3 earnings before the market opens tonight. Market expectations are for revenue around $788 million and EPS about $0.38. Can the growth in USDC scale really push net profit up? $CRCL Scale benefits vs. cooling interest rates USDC's scale is indeed expanding, but most reserves are tied to short-term debt and US interest rates. With the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, reserve yields are clearly declining. Even if scale increases, the lowered unit yield will significantly limit total revenue growth. Distribution costs are a hidden bleeding point The revenue Circle receives doesn't all go into its own pocket. To capture underlying ecosystem and exchange market share, distribution channel commissions remain high. The faster the scale grows, the more distribution costs rise, directly squeezing RLDC Margin profitability. On-chain business is still in the development phase Web3 wallets, payment channels, and cross-chain protocol CCTP fee-based services are growing well, but currently still represent a small portion of total revenue. The bulk of revenue still relies on the interest-based rental model. If this earnings report beats revenue expectations but profit margins narrow, the stock price will likely experience wide fluctuations. In the long term, relying solely on $USDC scale expansion makes it difficult to maintain a high valuation. Whether management can deliver a growth curve in transaction fees and service fees independent of reserves in the coming quarters is the key to breaking the deadlock where rate cuts mean profit declines.Liquidation data reveals an important detail behind this recovery. BTC recorded approximately $33.74M in short liquidations versus just $6.7M in long liquidations. ETH showed a similar pattern, with around $34.87M in short positions wiped out. This suggests short covering played a major role in pushing prices higher. Forced buying can create powerful rallies, but it doesn't automatically confirm sustainable spot demand. CORE tells another story, with both long and short positions getting liquida #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 When I look at long and short data now, what I pay most attention to is not the long-short ratio, but whether the price and open interest (OI) change synchronously. For example, if BTC rises and OI also increases, it means new positions are entering the market, but here is a question: are the new positions actively going long, or are institutions hedging? So I also look at the funding rate and spot trading volume together. If the price rises, OI increases, and spot trading volume also significantly expands, I tend to believe the rise is supported by real buying. But if the price doesn’t rise much, OI suddenly surges, and the funding rate keeps rising, I would be cautious; it might mean the leveraged longs are too crowded. There is also a situation where BTC falls but OI keeps increasing; this cannot be directly judged as shorts entering because there may be a large number of hedging positions. Therefore, what I value most is the change in OI, but it must be judged in combination with spot buying and funding rates. After all, every contract in the market has both long and short sides; just looking at which side has more people cannot determine who is truly driving the market. I think the easiest pitfall is to see a serious imbalance in the long-short ratio and rush to open a position in the opposite direction. Many times, you think you are going against retail traders, but in fact, you may be competing with institutional hedging positions. @OKX星球 A single on-chain record reveals the safety cushion of the exchange. This batch of coins was transferred out on October 31 from Binance's SAFU (Secure Asset Fund for Users) to cover losses from a hot wallet theft. At 5:56 on November 3, 7,500 coins were moved into an untagged wallet, then split into about 150 transactions of roughly 50 coins each, with some later merged and transferred away. What really matters is not how these 7,500 coins moved, but the remaining balance. SAFU now holds just over 7,500 BTC, about $572 million, while Binance’s rebalancing threshold is $800 million. The safety pool that should have been a backstop has fallen below the exchange’s own minimum rule. Mechanically, SAFU advances funds when theft or hacks occur so user assets aren’t directly deducted. The thinner it gets, the weaker the exchange’s risk absorption capacity becomes. This weakening doesn’t show in price but manifests in how incidents are handled next time. Binance has promised to replenish about $1 billion but has not provided a timeline. The receiving address is untagged, and Binance hasn’t explained its purpose. $BTC holders usually watch for large inflows to exchanges, but large outflows from the exchange’s self-protection accounts are also a signal. Splitting into 150 transactions of 50 coins each looks like an attempt to avoid single-transaction monitoring; on-chain data can’t provide answers. $ETH and $SOL are not currently affected, but lack of pricing doesn’t mean lack of importance. It’s worth considering: when the insurance fund falls below the red line and the replenishment time is uncertain, should you focus on the coin price or on when that $1 billion will actually be restored? Core data analysis of ETH whale holdings, rebound squeeze market, key at 2340!!! ETH perpetual current price 2323.26, up 2.49%, total whales 1172, total holdings 1.90B, nominal long-short ratio 24.44%. Longs total 327 whales, holdings 373.41M, average entry price 2852.85, unrealized loss 85.12 million USD, profit ratio 59.32%, cost position relatively high, still considerable space to break even. Shorts total 845 whales, holdings 1.52B, holding volume far exceeds longs, average entry price 2242.05, after this round of price rebound shorts' unrealized loss expanded to 53.4 million USD, profit ratio dropped to 29.46%. This rapid rise directly impacts the low-positioned whale short orders, short losses continue to expand, willingness to sell pressure will weaken; longs still unrealized loss, but holding pressure is somewhat relieved under rebound market. Whale short positions are heavy, with a large amount of short order liquidation liquidity above, short-term market can easily accelerate upward, but chasing highs carries significant risk. If volume cannot sustain, it is easy to see a rise and fall, back-and-forth shakeout pattern, not suitable for blind chasing. For market review reference only, does not constitute any trading advice #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC The 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm-election periods all occurred within broader bear-market structures. Comparing them directly with 2026 without considering the 200-day and yearly moving averages, trend lines, and overall market structure can be misleading. The key question isn't whether BTC historically declined after midterms. It's whether the current market structure is fundamentally different. If BTC has reclaimed the yearly moving average and broken above its downtrend line, that deserves at The suspected victim has finally been named, but the person naming them is not official, it's an on-chain investigator. ZachXBT says the victim of the $133 million suspected theft case is the French bank Crédit Mutuel Arkéa. The on-chain verifiable part is that Bitquery traced $108.8 million USDC flowing from accounts on Kraken, Crypto.com, and OKX to 15 wallets within 21 hours. The issuer only froze less than 4%, the rest has been converted to ETH and then transferred into Monero. The bank has not said a word so far. Whether the name is true or not depends on how long it remains silent. #ZachXBT #Hack #Crypto $XAU Preliminary results of the US midterm elections have landed, triggering a sharp short-term surge in gold, while also boosting risk assets. Gold prices surged to around 4016, an increase of about 0.5%. The market's chain logic is very clear: the Democratic Party's initial performance exceeded expectations, leading the market to reprice uncertainties in subsequent fiscal and regulatory policies, with safe-haven funds flowing into gold; subsequently, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.919%, and the decline in interest rates reduced the opportunity cost of the non-yielding asset gold, which is the main driver of this rally; combined with the US dollar index retreating to 101.45, gold prices denominated in dollars were further boosted, and BTC and QQQ also experienced a rebound. It is important to distinguish that this is a pulse rally triggered by the event. Whether it can develop into a sustained trend depends mainly on whether US Treasury yields and the dollar can maintain their current weakness. Do not rush to chase after a single surge.Core data analysis of BTC whale positions, 79200 is the key level, bears gather!!! BTC perpetual current price 78445.60, increase 1.98%, total whale traders 1239, total positions 3.92B, nominal long-short ratio 23.54%. There are 300 long whales holding 747.74M positions, average entry price 84449.85, unrealized loss of 57.23 million USD, profit ratio 54.33%, high-level trapped positions remain heavy. There are 939 short whales holding 3.17B positions, position size far exceeds longs, average entry price 75996.95, after this round of price rebound, short unrealized loss expanded to 99.13 million USD, profit ratio dropped to 39.29%. As the price rises, short pressure quickly increases, a large number of low-level ambushed short orders are trapped; although longs are also at a loss, this rebound slightly alleviates the trapped pressure. Whale camp shows obvious divergence, shorts have a large base but are now passively pressured, longs have high costs with limited upward breakout momentum. The short-term market enters a key battle position, with short liquidation liquidity stacked above, the sustainability of the rebound requires continuous observation of volume, chasing highs risk gradually rises, not suitable for aggressive opening. For market review reference only, does not constitute any trading advice #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Last week, a top old money figure posted a tweet about Hyperliquid. At that time, the entire market was falling, but only HYPE bucked the trend with a rise of over 11%; however, on November 6, HYPE will face unlocking selling pressure. 9.92 million $HYPE core contributor linear unlocks are about to be released, valued at about $760 million at the current price. Although AF holds 46.1 million tokens which are considered burned, that is a different matter. So the unlocking selling pressure should not be underestimated. $ASTER is a hidden risk. Total supply is 8 billion, currently circulating 2.508 billion, with only 37.21% unlocked. The team’s share will increase from 0.5% to 11.6%, and 36.3% of staking emissions have not yet been distributed. Stage 6 claims run until November 28. The unlock on November 29 looks small, only 0.09% of the circulating supply, but the real concern is the team’s chips. ASTER’s mechanism is very aggressive, and I’m not confident about the chip structure. It’s not suitable to buy at the bottom during the claim window phase. $UNI has no large-scale unlocks. The fee reform has enabled a burn flywheel, with fees directly burning UNI. The v4 aggregation Hook further expands revenue, and $7 is considered an undervalued range. Similarly, for DeFi blue chips, income, buybacks, and burns are only half the story. What truly determines the profit-loss ratio is the subsequent chip release rhythm.#SonyQ2GamingAndMusic The moment I started taking $CRCL seriously was when I examined its purpo$se-built layer-one blockchain architecture. Instead of processing transactions through general-purpose virtual machines, the system uses native developer tooling optimized specifically for real-world economic activity. This design delivers seamless programmatic liquidity management and low-latency global settlement without requiring fragmented instit$#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ USDC circulation and trading volume are indeed expanding, but reserve income growth lags far behind scale, distribution costs consume nearly 60%, and declining interest rates further squeeze profit margins. Scale is the foundation; what truly determines shareholder returns are net retention rate and diversification progress. Key Q3 highlights: circulation trends, RLDC profit margin, other income contributions, management's outlook on interest rates and revenue sharing. Currently, I have no corresponding spot/futures positions on exchanges and will decide after reviewing the earnings report. Risk borne by oneself. Conclusion first: OKX launched four batches of new TradFi products today, but the new pools were almost empty on the first day. The tokenized stock xIREN/USDC of $IREN opened at 17:30, with only 1 trade of 8.5178 shares worth 200 USD by 17:55; GPRO stock X-Perp opened at 17:00, with 3 trades totaling 13 contracts and an open interest of 11 contracts worth about 11 USD for the whole day; US500 S&P index X-Perp opened at 17:15, with 0 trades and 0 open interest, bid at 7527, ask at 7691, a spread of 2.2%. Go to the old pools: $IREN perpetual contracts traded 2.18 million USD in 24 hours, with open interest of 769,000 USD; xIREN/USDT spot traded 206,000 USD in 24 hours. The difference between new and old is three orders of magnitude. IREN is an old miner stock transitioning from Bitcoin mining machines to AI data centers. On November 3, the AI data center sector collectively rebounded, with IREN closing at 24.46 USD, up 11.1%, while sector peers Hut 8 rose 16%, Riot 14%, and MARA 9%. OKX's announcement clearly states: tokenized stocks do not provide ownership or shareholder rights, and off-exchange prices and liquidity may deviate from the underlying stocks. Placing orders in empty pools means what you lack is not the coin, but the counterparty. $IREN When Bitcoin $BTC broke through 78,000 this morning, many people were stunned. Didn’t they say that after the voting results came out with the Republicans losing, Bitcoin should have dropped? So why did it rise back up? This rebound seems like no new money actually came in. Let’s first talk about what happened. The neighboring exchange had a $6.3 billion theft that caused a week-long uproar, and today it’s reaching a phase of closure: the official announcement states that 98% of the affected assets have been replenished, compensation funds have been prepared to over 100%, deposits have again exceeded withdrawals on an hourly basis, and the previously net withdrawn $4.72 billion is being filled back. On the market, BTC once rose 1.55% intraday to touch 78,000, then fell back to around 77,400 by the time of this report. The total 24-hour liquidation across the network was only $174 million, so the bulls were not massively liquidated again. However, BTC spot trading volume is 14% below the 30-day average, $ETH is even worse at 43% below, and ETH itself is just drifting around 2,280. $BNB is the worst, having lost the 700 whole number support. This is a panic discount recovery, not new money entering the market. Such a low-volume rebound usually means if you chase it, you’re likely to be stuck holding.#Cerebras wafer-scale AI chip commercialization pace draws attention **My view: Cerebras has made substantial progress in commercialization, but whether the “chip speed” can translate into sustained profitability remains key.** - **Demand has been validated.** Revenue in Q2 2026 was about **$180 million, a 74% year-over-year increase**; cloud and other service revenues grew by **281%**, indicating that inference services already have real income support. - **Profit quality still needs observation.** Q2 GAAP gross margin was only **14%**, while the company’s adjusted “core gross margin” was **41%**, showing a significant difference in calculation methods. The shift to cloud services also means the company must bear risks related to equipment, data centers, and utilization. - **Next focus is on delivery and returns.** The company disclosed over 600MW capacity including both operational and contracted capacity planned for delivery by the end of 2027, which cannot all be considered existing capacity. I am more concerned whether the new capacity can be launched on time, whether customers will continue to pay, and whether gross margin can improve as revenue grows. **I am somewhat positive about the business direction; whether the stock is worth buying still needs to be combined with valuation and cannot be concluded based solely on technological leadership.**A net outflow of $1.16 billion in a single week; Bitwise research director André Dragosch says this reflects weakening sentiment, not institutional withdrawal. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.16 billion in one week. Dragosch attributes this selling pressure to a shift in market sentiment and emphasizes that institutions have largely maintained their original positions. ETF fund flows are currently the most direct marginal source of BTC buying; continuous net outflows mean the support propped up by passive subscriptions in recent weeks is being withdrawn. The divergence lies in the nature: if it’s just a short-term risk-off and institutions haven’t moved their base holdings, redemptions and subscriptions will quickly return to positive once sentiment recovers; if net outflows continue into the second and third weeks, it indicates allocation desks are reducing exposure. Key observations include whether ETF net inflows can turn positive again in the next 7 to 10 days, and BTC’s trading volume and absorption strength near critical round-number levels. Source: Cointelegraph Are you more focused on the stabilization signals after outflows slow down, or on net inflows turning positive again? I kind of understand why some veteran players end up with only Bitcoin in the end. Holding coins means you also have to watch if the team is breaking up or if the unlocking schedule changes. Holding for a long time feels like being a shareholder, but without any voting rights. Bitcoin might also drop to the point where you can't sleep, but it carries less risk than betting on project teams. I do pay attention to news about companies buying in for the long term, but their cash flow isn't mine. Now, if you ask me to study whether a certain coin can be held for years, I get a bit tired just flipping to the roadmap page.$NVDA What does the growth of competitors' data center businesses really mean for Nvidia? AMD's latest financial report provides indirect evidence of industry demand, but it cannot be directly equated to changes in Nvidia's orders or market share. If the overall industry expands faster than the share pressure caused by competition, the leader may still benefit; the downside is increased customer bargaining power and alternative options. Going forward, it is necessary to verify Nvidia's own deliveries, gross margin, and customer purchasing pace to avoid attributing all industry growth to the valuation of a single company.#NebiusAI cloud business rapid growth faces earnings test **My judgment: Nebius (NBIS) AI cloud growth is already supported by revenue, but the real test in this earnings report is whether "capacity expansion can be monetized on schedule, and whether the growth justifies such a large capital investment."** Q3 has not yet been announced, scheduled for **pre-market release on November 12 in the US, with a conference call at 21:00 Beijing time that evening**. - **Strong growth foundation:** Q2 group revenue was **$582 million, up 454% year-over-year**, adjusted EBITDA was positive, but continuing operations still had a net loss of **$190 million**, so adjusted profit should not be equated with overall profitability. - **The key is delivery:** Focus on GPU capacity that has been powered on, completed customer acceptance, and started billing, rather than just signed power and data center plans. - **The biggest risk is capital return:** Q2 equipment and intangible asset purchases were about **$5.66 billion**, far exceeding the quarter's revenue. Customer prepayments help financing but do not equal profit and come with future service obligations. **I am somewhat positive about the business direction but will not judge the earnings to definitely beat expectations based solely on high growth.** Only if revenue is realized, profit margins hold steady, and capacity expansion and financing arrangements are clear at the same time will it be a more solid positive; if only long-term targets increase and delivery continues to be delayed, I will lower my evaluation. Looking at the prediction contracts for Bitcoin, it feels like options wearing a short-sleeve shirt now—the interface is cleaner, but the deadlines and trigger conditions are still plenty. Spot price going up just means it goes up, but with these contracts, you still have to watch when it rises and whether it crosses the line; even if you guess the direction right, you might end up wasting effort. The odds are a bit like price tags on probabilities, but they also mix in sentiment and liquidity, so the market hasn’t gotten the answer in advance. I originally wanted to watch the excitement, but got stuck on "which price is used for settlement at expiration"—why is there reading comprehension involved?Last night, a fan asked me in the comments: "What if the Democrats win?" I said: short first, then long. Today, $BTC's price movement just formed a "deep V," and I guess many people got liquidated again. The drop happened from 7:30 to 11:00, hitting a low of 75,738; then from 11:15 it started to rebound, and now it's back up to 78,400. This round of decline basically coincided with the announcement of the US midterm election results. The Democrats took both chambers, and the market worried that US crypto regulations would tighten again and the CLARITY Act would be harder to advance, so there was an initial sell-off. ✅ But once the results became completely clear, the market started trading on a different logic: Democratic control of Congress does not mean control over everything. Trump still holds executive power and veto rights, and the US has entered a state of "checks and balances between the White House and Congress." Crypto-friendly bills are harder to pass, but aggressive anti-crypto policies are also difficult to implement. When the worst expectations are priced in and election uncertainty disappears, combined with BTC being oversold earlier, bottom-fishing funds and short covering together pulled the price back up. The "short first, then long" prediction I made last night was exactly how the market actually played out.According to relevant analysis, as the voting day on November 3, 2026, approaches, the "election effect" has once again become the market focus. However, the current situation of the U.S. stock market fluctuating near historical highs and Bitcoin's cycle being out of sync poses a severe challenge to this traditional narrative. Since 1950, the U.S. has experienced 19 midterm elections, and the S&P 500 index has been higher one year after each election day; although Bitcoin has only gone through 3 complete cycles, it also shows a characteristic of price increase one year later, but short-term sharp fluctuations often catch investors off guard. The two major markets in 2026 are in completely different positions: the U.S. stock market is approaching historical highs, while Bitcoin is still struggling to recover from a previous large sell-off. This structural difference means that directly applying historical averages may lead to errors. More complexly, Bitcoin's election cycle highly overlaps with its halving cycle, making it difficult to separate the independent impact of the two on price, thus triggering deep doubts about the authenticity of the "election effect." Looking back at the historical performance of the U.S. stock market, in the 19 midterm elections from 1950 to 2022, the S&P 500 index never recorded negative returns in the 12 months following the election. This phenomenon is statistically significant, with an average increase of 15.1% and a median of 14.5%, even the weakest performance achieved a positive growth of 1.1%. In contrast, in non-midterm election years, if returns are calculated from early November for the following year, the average is only 7.2%, and only about 70% of samples recorded gains. This comparison strongly $NEAR brothers, look at this wave of NEAR pulling up to 4.05, the pressure has directly increased, this is not something that can be easily broken through. I think this rebound is about to rest, first retracing and testing around 3.8. Focus on the 3.8 level; if it holds here without breaking down, then this pullback is just a shakeout, and it might rise afterward. Conversely, if after reaching 3.8 the bears increase volume and break through, the market will weaken directly, with the next target around 3.6. Combining this with whale data, currently the whales have a larger short position, with the average short entry price at 4.1595. At this price level, many shorts are in profit, so if the bulls push up here, they will face selling pressure from this batch of shorts, making it easy to be pushed back. Don't be fooled by the current short-term lively rally; this rebound just hit the previous downtrend line resistance. There is definitely a lot of divergence here. Let's wait for it to retrace and verify support first. 3.8 is the dividing line between bulls and bears in this round.#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露 **My judgment: ASTS's technical potential is worth attention, but the key to commercialization is turning "phones can connect to satellites" into "users can continuously use and pay."** The Q3 earnings call is scheduled for **6 AM Beijing time on November 10**, and has not yet been announced. This time I focus on three things: - **Actual number of satellites available:** Completing manufacturing, successful launch, antenna deployment, and service activation are different stages; we need to see how much coverage time and capacity can ultimately be provided. - **Charging progress:** Whether specific market commercial launch dates, carrier plans, and revenue sharing are disclosed. Device sales, government contracts, and customer prepayments cannot be directly counted as mobile user subscription revenue. - **Cash burn:** Constellation construction requires continuous investment; delays in progress will postpone revenue and increase financing and equity dilution pressure. The company has previously clearly indicated that service deployment is still subject to regulatory approvals, commercial agreements, and funding conditions. **My outlook is somewhat positive but cautious about the speed of realization.** If this time they can provide verifiable on-orbit service capability and a charging timetable, it is more significant than a single quarter's revenue slightly exceeding expectations; merely adding new partners without service and payment progress is not enough to prove the business model works.BTC 78,460, V is back, 0.5% higher than the 78,063 before the crash. To be honest, 76,326 was broken. Today's low was 75,736, 2.3% lower than that. I previously wrote "the triple bottom held," but that needs to be revised. However, it recovered within two hours and is now 2.8% above 76,326. This level has been bought three times before and after. 76,326 on 10-30, 76,705 on 11-02, and 75,736 today. The lows are being pushed down, but each time they are caught. Now, the focus is not below, but above. The range from 78,804 to 78,900. Hit 78,804 on 10-30, hit 78,422 on 11-01. Hit 78,878 on 11-02, bounced back near these three times. Now it is only 0.44% away from it. The second thing is volume. The crash had 135 million traded in 1 hour. The rebound's six bars range from 48 million to 61 million. The rebound volume is less than half of the drop. This indicates "no one is selling anymore" more than "someone is rushing to buy." Sentiment is 34, up from 26, still far from the neutral 50. Tonight at 22:30, the US stock spot market opens, that will be the real test. Do you think the 78,900 barrier is the end or the start of this week? $BTC #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ **My assessment: Neutron remains Rocket Lab's biggest growth opportunity, but the maiden flight has been delayed, so this earnings report needs to explain specific milestones and additional costs.** First, to correct a timeline point: the company announced on **October 14 that the maiden flight is postponed to 2027**, so the old expectation of "maiden flight by the end of 2026" can no longer be used. The Q3 earnings report will be released **after market close on November 9 US time**. My key focus is: - **Engineering progress:** Whether the first stage propellant tank manufacturing issues have been resolved, and what hurdles remain for engine, full rocket integration, and ground testing. - **New schedule:** Whether they can provide a maiden flight window supported by test milestones, rather than vaguely saying "next year." - **Cash burn:** How much the delay increases R&D and construction expenses, and whether existing business and cash can support subsequent investments. **I am cautiously optimistic about the long-term business potential but remain cautious about near-term execution.** Successful maiden flight, stable customer mission execution, achieving reusability and profitability are different stages; even if this quarter's revenue beats expectations, it cannot replace evidence of passing critical Neutron tests.#SoftBank's heavy bet on OpenAI: Can the Q2 earnings report deliver impressive results? **My forward-looking judgment: SoftBank may report impressive accounting profits, but "heavy investment in OpenAI" itself does not equate to profit growth this quarter. The key factors are changes in share valuation and financing costs.** This refers to **SoftBank Group (9984)**, whose earnings report is scheduled for release on **November 10**, and has not yet been published. I focus on three points: - **OpenAI valuation gains:** Related investments are accounted for at fair value through profit and loss; valuation increases may boost profits but do not represent equivalent cash received; previously recognized gains cannot be counted again in this quarter. - **Quarter attribution:** Additional investments this year were arranged in three batches, with the last batch on October 1, which falls into the next quarter and cannot be fully included in the July–September results. - **Financial pressure:** It is important to see whether net asset value growth is accompanied by increased borrowing, interest, and asset pledge risks. **I am somewhat optimistic about AI investment potential but remain cautious about equating "large profit increases = investment success."** This time, if net asset value rises while cash reserves and debt ratios remain stable, it is more convincing than simply exceeding net profit expectations.Calculating, this new license in Mississippi accounts for 5% of Alchemy Pay's current 20 licensed states, but it cannot be equated to a 5% business growth. According to the official announcement, the company has obtained a money transmission license from the state's Department of Banking and Consumer Finance, increasing the number of licensed states in the US to 20, with several other states still under review. ① From 19 to 20 states, the increase is a compliance entry for one state. I value more the expansion of space it provides for fiat-to-crypto exchange services, rather than directly treating the number of licenses as user demand. ② This time, one new license was added, and the announcement also mentioned advancing stablecoin business. From another perspective, licenses are conditions for conducting business, but not the number of payment transactions; if subsequent services are truly implemented, then the significance for payment business will be more concrete, which is my speculation. ③ The 20 states are those already licensed; multiple states under review cannot be counted in advance. I am accustomed to keeping completed and pending separately in accounting, otherwise it is easy to mistake expansion expectations for existing capabilities. My judgment is somewhat positive, but the weight mainly lies in the expansion of the compliant payment network, which is not enough to judge business volume growth based solely on this news. For me, the next step is to focus on service implementation and actual usage, and not to substitute license counts for operational accounts.#IREN矿企转型AI云服务，GPU交付进展待揭晓 **My judgment: IREN's transformation already has actual delivery support, but the key in this earnings report is whether the GPUs can be accepted on schedule and start billing, rather than announcing more contracts.** The company will announce FY2027 Q1 results on **November 5**, which have not been released yet. - **Progress so far:** Previously delivered Horizon 1 to Microsoft, Horizon 2 is in debugging, and Horizon 3–4 was targeted for delivery in Q4 2026. This time, it is necessary to verify whether subsequent projects are progressing as planned. - **Do not treat ARR as realized revenue.** As of August, the company disclosed about $4 billion in signed annual recurring revenue scale and about $1 billion in operational annual recurring revenue scale; actual revenue still depends on debugging, customer acceptance, and service delivery. - **The biggest risk is the mismatch between capital and returns.** Equipment, data center, and financing costs occur first, with revenue realized later; delays will increase interest burdens, and GPU depreciation and future rent reductions may also lower returns. **I am somewhat positive about the business direction, but confidence will only increase when "delivery fulfillment + AI revenue growth + controllable financing costs" are seen.** If only the contract scale increases but acceptance and billing are delayed, the investment value of the transformation still needs to be discounted. #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ **My judgment: AAOI has a slight chance to beat expectations, but profit uncertainty is greater than revenue, so I am not betting on a significant beat for now.** Q3 results have not been released yet; the earnings call is scheduled for Beijing time **November 6 at 5:30 AM**. - **The expectation threshold is not high:** The company guides revenue of **$255 million to $290 million** and adjusted EPS of **$0.11 to $0.26**; Zacks currently expects about **$269 million and $0.14**. If results fall in the upper part of the guidance, it could beat expectations. - **Support comes from 800G volume growth, risk lies in delivery capability.** Management previously expected 800G revenue to increase nearly fivefold quarter-over-quarter, but component supply, capacity ramp-up, and 100G business affected by customer switch shortages may offset some growth. **I place more emphasis on the simultaneous occurrence of “revenue beating expectations + stable gross margin + reliable Q4 delivery guidance.”** If it’s just increased shipments but profits are eaten up by expedited procurement and expansion costs, the earnings quality won’t be as strong as the headline suggests.