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After the hype dies down, don't rush to buy these three types of coins Hype always has to settle eventually. If you still hold meme coins or are preparing to bottom-fish, it’s worth taking a quick look: $PEPE: After a theft incident triggered sell-offs, a legendary trader scooped up 45.08 billion tokens, pushing the price up short-term; but once the hype fades, trading volume can’t keep up, and the price can only hover around 0.000005. Without volume, the rebound feels more like a pulse. $TRUMP: Currently around 1.58. On voting day, political concepts saw almost no net capital inflow. The Achilles’ heel of political tokens is event-driven momentum; once the event concludes, the narrative expires. $UNI: When Robinhood chain launched, the market bet on explosive RWA trading volume and fee burns of UNI, pushing the price near 7 USD; but 7 USD has been sideways for too long. Protocol profits don’t equal governance hype that can sustain buying pressure. The burn event is more like a bottom support logic, not a short-term price surge engine. Conclusion: PEPE and TRUMP are not advisable to buy now unless there is volume expansion or new narratives; missing either, don’t touch them. UNI is unlikely to see a decent rise without substantial changes in its distribution mechanism. When hype fades, patience is more valuable than bottom-fishing. The above is just my personal review and does not constitute investment advice.$ETH Observation: Up 5.3% in one day outperforming BTC, but ETF has had net outflows for 7 consecutive days ETH is currently at $2407, up 5.26% in 24 hours, rising from 2226 to a high of 2450, while BTC only rose 3.13% in the same period Contract funds clearly favor ETH, CoinDesk data shows ETH open interest increased by 4.2%, outpacing the 2.7% price increase, while BTC open interest only increased by 1.6% Spot ETFs have not kept up, SoSoValue data shows that on November 3, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $85.35 million, marking the 7th consecutive trading day of outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA outflowing $74.44 million Options side is also cautious, with 4 of the 6 most active ETH option contracts being put options Leverage funds are chasing, institutional funds are still withdrawing, whether it can hold around 2450 depends on when ETF flows turn positive. #ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 Seeing a company make a big mistake and just pay it off, the first reaction is always: That cheap? This time Block paid $764 million to settle with the U.S. Department of Justice over anti-money laundering issues. The number sounds scary, but for a payment company of its size, it's just an amount that can be accounted for in the financial statements. What's interesting is the phrase "principally agreed." Both parties shook hands, but the agreement hasn't been signed yet, and the court hasn't approved it either. So, it's neither a guilty plea nor a closed case—it's stuck in the middle. Some worry whether $BTC will be hit. The truth is it won't move. This case has been investigated for years, and the market has already digested it once. The penalty hurts the company's finances, not the coin's price.Block has agreed in principle to pay $764 million to settle the U.S. Department of Justice's investigation into its anti-money laundering controls. Let's break down this news first. The amount is $764 million, the subject is Block, the reason is inadequate anti-money laundering controls, and the counterparty is the U.S. Department of Justice. Pay attention to the wording: this is an "agreement in principle," the deal still needs to be formally signed and approved by the court. No money has been paid yet, and the case is not closed. Why is this worth watching? Such fines are never about a single operation but about a set of processes. Regulators don't focus on whether you caught the bad guys but on whether you have a system, records, and reporting chain that prove you are catching them. For a payment company of Block's scale, $BTC transactions are its most direct crypto gateway; if customer identification and suspicious transaction reporting are deemed weak, fines will be issued based on scale and impact. How to interpret this? In the short term, this is clearing old accounts, not new trouble emerging. A long-delayed investigation ends with a fine; the worst-case scenario has already been priced in, and what's left is just confirmation. In the medium to long term, costs will be internalized: compliance teams, monitoring systems, and reporting processes will all require more funding, and these costs will ultimately be passed on through fees and spreads—they won't just disappear. What’s truly worth considering is this: when fines become a predictable operating cost in this industry, the bigger you are, the harder it hits, but also the more you can bear.#CFTC first approves US single-stock perpetual futures, regulatory boundaries loosen for derivatives innovation, risk appetite recovery is a medium-term positive for BTC, but short-term remains constrained by selling pressure. I judge the current situation as a consolidation digestion after a rebound rather than a trend reversal. After a 3.1% rise in 24h, the price fell back to 79987, with both 1-hour and 4-hour trends downward, 5.34% below the 4-hour high. The top 10 order book buy-sell ratio is only 0.37, with sellers clearly dominant; funding rate at 0.0080% is low, and coin-margined positions are 34,000, indicating cautious bullish sentiment and lack of chasing funds. Strategy-wise, a light short position can be tried near 80785 with stop loss at 81930 and target at 78560; if it pulls back to 77120 and stabilizes, short-term long positions can be taken with stop loss at 75980 and target at 79340. Single position should not exceed 20%, and strictly exit if it breaks below 75690. ——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.—— $BTC#CFTC first approves US single-stock perpetual futures #CFTC first approves US single-stock perpetual futures $BTC $SOXS SOXS really knows how to harvest emotions. Previously, the long-short ratio shot up directly to 2.88, and a bunch of people rushed to go long, but the market was immediately buried; now, the short-term 5-minute chart has dropped to 0.48, and the sentiment has sharply turned bearish, with most retail accounts looking to short. Looking at the 15-minute chart, the rally from the low point of 49.45 was very strong, reaching a peak at 61.83 but failing to hold and then falling back. Now it’s hovering around 59. The moving averages are still supporting from below, but the selling pressure left from that spike remains. Key levels to watch: Resistance is first at 60; if it can’t break through, it will likely continue to oscillate downward. Once volume breaks above the previous high of 61.83, the clustered short positions will become ready liquidation fuel. Support is initially at 58; if that doesn’t hold, it will slide to 56, and the next strong defense level is 54. Don’t blindly follow the long-short ratio; it only reflects the number of accounts, not the chips held by the main players. This is a typical scenario—everyone is bearish, but the price refuses to crash directly. This phase is the most prone to a sudden spike that blows up the trend-following shorts. Don’t stubbornly hold triple leverage; don’t chase without a solid signal. Wait for the direction to become clear before making a move. On November 4th, SOL's intraday low ranged from $89.73 to $89.77, less than $1 away from the 200-day moving average of $88.88 to $88.97. In the afternoon, it rebounded about 5% from the low to $94.24. The hourly closing price in the evening reached $95.75 (November 4th, 18:00 UTC), down about 23% from the 30-day high of $122.04. The RSI is only 29.5, already in the oversold zone, but this does not mean an immediate reversal—MACD is still below the death cross, and the price remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. The ETF side is still dragging: the seven US spot SOL ETFs have seen a combined outflow of $63.4 million over the last five trading days, with a record outflow of $71.47 million in the week ending October 30th. The long-short ratio is 0.92, with bears slightly in control. Before the London Breakpoint conference opens on November 15th, the market is testing near the critical line. I think this position is less a bottom-fishing signal and more a test of "no more room to fall, but must first stabilize": only by holding $88.88 can there be talk of a rebound; if it can't hold, don't fight the 200-day moving average. Invalid condition: if the daily close falls below the 200-day moving average at $88.88, this "hold the line" analysis is void; conversely, only by reclaiming $100 can it be considered truly out of danger. Which side do you bet on: will SOL first break the 200-day line to find a bottom, or recover $100 before Breakpoint? $SOL #Solana #200 Coins remain in the wallet but are changed to multisig: theft or fraud? A new type of crypto crime is presenting courts and investigators with an old legal question in a new technological context: when attackers gain control of a wallet and instead of transferring assets, change the permissions to require multisignature, does this constitute theft or fraud? This distinction is crucial for criminal liability determination, asset recovery, and the future of self-custody. How permission hijacking works In typical cases, attackers obtain the user's private key or mnemonic phrase but do not directly steal funds. Instead, they change the wallet's smart contract permissions or multisig configuration. The original owner can still see the balance on-chain but cannot initiate transactions alone. The attacker effectively becomes a co-signer or gatekeeper, demanding ransom to restore control. This differs from traditional hacking because the assets remain at the original address without direct transfer, exchange, or cross-chain movement. Legally, theft usually requires unlawful possession of property with intent to permanently deprive; fraud involves obtaining property or inducing actions through deception. When attackers lock wallets by obtaining keys through social engineering, prosecutors may argue fraud; when attackers exploit smart contract vulnerabilities to change permissions without the owner's knowledge, theft or unauthorized access charges may be stronger. Why the legal gray area matters For victims, the practical problem is urgent: they cannot move assets, but police may hesitate due to no recorded loss on-chain. Exchanges and blockchain analytics firms are increasingly asked to track permission changes, but few jurisdictions have clear regulations classifying “wallet control hijacking” as a separate offense $WLFI BTC rose 3%, WLFI fell 7.6%. This divergence is even more straightforward than the election results themselves. At 23:00, 8.65 million tokens were dumped within an hour, dropping from 0.04947 to 0.04682, closing at 0.04779. Then four volumes of 5.58 million, 4.84 million, 2.5 million, and 1.02 million followed, each smaller than the last, with the price hovering at 0.0472. Those who dumped have left, and no one has come to take over. Positions have been fluctuating between 6.5 million and 7.5 million USD, basically unchanged. The fee rate is 0.005%, only half of the 0.01 benchmark. Contract trading volume in 24 hours is 36 million USD, while spot is only 5.5 million. This is not the same kind of death as with TRUMP. That was shorts adding positions and fee rates turning negative; this is that leverage never came in, and spot holders are reducing their own holdings. The Democratic Party is still pushing a market structure bill to restrict officials from participating in crypto businesses. The Trump family's projects happen to be right on this line. The story has been told all year, but the election hurdle was not passed. I was still wondering at dawn if 80,000 could hold, and it did—BTC rose, the story fell, each going their own way. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SNDK 03:27 There's a court document that almost no one shared. The Southern District of New York rejected CMA's request to suspend the temporary injunction on single-stock perpetual contracts, stating that the plaintiff couldn't demonstrate imminent harm, and instead believes the CFTC's claim of overreach has a chance of winning. In other words: single-stock perpetuals can't be shut down in the US for now. At the same time, the SNDK token is at 1033. Opened at 1111 in 24 hours, highest 1150, lowest 1016, down 7%. What really made me pause is the open interest. Yesterday afternoon it was 115,000 contracts, now 137,000 contracts, nearly a 20% increase; the price dropped from 1130 downward. During the decline, no one fled, everyone was adding. The rate is 0.0484%, nearly five times the benchmark, longs pay every 8 hours to hold on. At 00:00 the price dipped to 1016, and open interest increased by 8%. I didn't take this position, watching it hurts their hands. The product's life is saved, but the token itself wasn't saved—two separate things. At 03:00 the open interest was only 27,000 contracts, at 23:00 it was 240,000. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Both chambers of the U.S. Congress have flipped to blue, can $BTC hold 80,000? According to the Associated Press, the Democratic Party has won the majority seats in both the House and Senate, flipping even the Senate seats in Texas and Kansas to blue. Trump remains in the White House, but the new Congress will be controlled by the Democrats. On the chart, BTC surged to 81,200 before retreating near 80,000. The 15-minute candle that broke through 80,000 saw an OKX spot trading volume of about 61.71 million USDT. In the short term, I'm watching for a pullback to 80,000. If the 15-minute candle closes below 80,000, first see if it can recover. #Bitcoin #USMidtermElections #ScalpingA whole pot of boiling oil was doused with a ladle of cold water in public—7.63% and 7.36%, the two big pots of Brent and WTI had their flames simultaneously snuffed out! In the kitchen, this is called "stock losing its flavor." The Strait of Hormuz is like the main gas pipeline in the back kitchen; a few days ago, the valve was stuck, and the whole world thought the fire would be cut off tonight, with the oil price pot bubbling fiercely. Now, good news comes from the negotiation table—a hint of aroma saying the pipeline will be ventilated, so the flame was "whoosh" turned down, and Brent slid directly to $103.60 on November 3. It's like the guest just smelled the aroma and was ready to order more dishes, but you turn around and tell them the stove might be fixed—the soup is still the same soup, but the extra pinch of salt for the premium has been removed. But don't rush to take the pot off the stove. Iran's message translated into kitchen talk is: "The dish can be served, but first settle the three debts I’m owed—lift the blockade, remove the sanctions, and unfreeze the assets." It's like telling a kitchen apprentice "almost ready," but the person is still in the parking lot. Qatar is running back and forth as the waiter, quite diligently, but no matter how fast the waiter runs, the dish isn't finished cooking yet. Trump is not planning to turn up the heat for a big stir-fry for now, but near Hormuz, a few drops of limited strikes have already splattered—there’s crackling in the pot, but the lid can’t be fully lifted. What really determines the flavor are the doneness of three things: the soup base of negotiations, the open flame of military risk, and the actual shipping flow as the strainer. Whether the soup base is clear, the flame steady, and the strainer able to scoop up the cargo—that’s the key. Tokenized US stock assets like $xCOIN are the side dishes that change flavor with this pot of soup—the main dish moves, and all the seasonings have to be reweighed. Speaking of weighing, I have to tap the prep table: leveraged contracts are that jar of extra spicy chili. The news is hot and cold; too much chili not only burns the stomach but also covers up the freshness of the main dish itself. Now this pot of soup is only suitable for slow simmering on low heat; anyone who tries to stir-fry fiercely to grab the pot’s aroma at this time will get splattered with oil drops and have to wipe their own face. This old pot of crude oil soup has already been turned down to a low simmer, the flame is suppressed, but the embers in the stove are still glowing. #oilpricesfallover7%Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,137, attempting to recover after a recent pullback from the $81,000–$81,500 region. Price has moved back toward the short-term moving averages, but BTC is still facing resistance around $80,300–$80,450. The market is showing signs of stabilization after the recent decline. However, buyers need to reclaim the $81,000–$81,500 zone to strengthen the recovery. Holding above the $79,800 area is important to prevent further downside pressure. EMA Structure * 20 #AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% Democrats have flipped both chambers of Congress in a historic sweep during the 2026 Midterm Elections, wresting the unified government away from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Driven by voter frustration over the high cost of living, rising economic pressures, and low presidential approval ratings, the election completely reshapes the balance of power in Washington for the final two years of Trump's presidency.#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 The crypto market reversed sharply today: Bitcoin surged back above $80,000 in one go, reaching a high of $81,000, and Ethereum also rose to around $2,429. Yesterday, it was said that a rebound does not equal a reversal, but today the bulls crushed the bears, liquidating $380 million in short positions within an hour. After digesting the negative impact of the midterm elections, market sentiment has clearly warmed up. Additionally, House Democrats are still discussing expanding the crypto market structure bill to be pushed again in the next Congress. But don't forget, employment data is due on Friday; whether $80,000 can hold depends on the data. Think about your stop loss before chasing the price up, as volatility remains high—don't get carried away. Last night a fan asked me: "What if the Democrats win?" My answer was just four words: short first, then long. Today’s deep V in $BTC basically followed this script. The drop was concentrated between 7:30 and 11:00, hitting a low of 75,738; after 11:15 it started to rally, now back near 78,400. This round of selling coincided closely with the midterm election results announcement—Democrats took both chambers, and the market first worried about renewed tightening of crypto regulations and the CLARITY Act becoming harder to advance, so it sold off. But once the outcome became clear, the market began trading a different logic: Democratic control of Congress does not mean control of everything. Trump still holds executive power and veto rights, putting the US into a state of checks and balances between the White House and Congress. Crypto-friendly bills are harder to pass, but aggressive anti-crypto policies are also difficult to implement. The worst-case scenario was priced in, election uncertainty disappeared, and combined with BTC’s prior oversold condition, bottom-fishing funds and short covering together pulled the price back up. "Short first, then long" is not a guess; it’s first trading panic, then trading the expectation gap. The market gave respect to this move today. $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 This is not the opening move; it is the last long contemplation before the endgame: the employment report has yet to be played, and the timer for interest rate expectations is pressed down to the final second. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 55.5, surpassing the forecast of 54.7, but the price sub-index remains high at 75.2— the opponent displays material advantage in the midgame, yet within the formation lies a diagonal line that can be opened at any moment. The Federal Reserve holds interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index year-over-year is 3.1%, and the market prices about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point hike in December. The market appears calm, but every square is a constraint. The employment report is the next forced move. The new job expectation is about 60,000, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Do not treat 60,000 as an isolated pawn; it connects three major lines: Treasury bonds as the king’s wing, the dollar as the rook, and risk assets as the knights and bishops. If data is strong, interest rate expectations rise, the dollar makes the first move, and long-duration assets are forced to retreat; if data is weak, risk assets get a breather, but the price sub-index at 75.2 reminds you that the inflation endgame is far from over. A true grandmaster does not overturn the entire plan because of one pawn’s advance but calculates the coordination of pieces twenty moves ahead. Tokens like $xORCL, representing US stocks, are like pinned bishops at this moment: nominally following US stocks but actually tethered by the macro mainline. When the interest rate path shifts, the valuation anchor wobbles; when the dollar tightens, risk appetite shrinks. The most dangerous thing in the midgame is not the opponent sacrificing pieces but mistaking bait for the main attack. If employment data only changes the one-month expectation, that is tactical noise; if it changes the slope of the interest rate path, that is a strategic shift. Position management is like the endgame: first secure the king’s safety, then discuss rook and bishop coordination; first confirm liquidity, then discuss attack routes. The market is still waiting for the move at 13:30. Treasury moves first, the dollar presses next, and risk assets respond last in valuation; this transmission chain is the open line of the midgame. Whoever treats the 60,000 new jobs as the only coordinate will miscalculate along the price sub-index diagonal at 75.2. The layout phase focuses on expectation gaps, the midgame on forced moves, and the endgame on who still has coordinated pieces. The employment report is not a winning move; it only forces the opponent’s response onto the board; the true checkmate happens when the interest rate path and risk asset valuations simultaneously lose coordination. #USJobsReportInFocus $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk's strategy directly given early Thursday! 1-hour level bottom probing and rebound, bottom support confirmed, go long directly at line 1033! First target is 1080, take profit in batches at that level; if it holds, continue looking up to around 1110. Set stop loss at previous low 1016; as long as the bottom structure is not broken, the rebound is not over. Be patient and hold on waiting for the next move.The radar echo looks beautiful: a strong echo unit of 865 million steadily presses over the forecasted landing area, but the readings in the rain gauge are wavering—the real deciding factor for whether this rain will fully fall, the moisture channel, is being choked by an invisible dry cold air. Let's break down this Q3 sounding data into three layers. The lower layer is the dynamic condition. On-chain transaction volume rose 49% quarter-over-quarter, this is convergence uplift near the surface, a solid warm and moist transport, indicating settlement demand is pouring into the low-pressure center, not a virtual value reversed by the model. For this layer, I give full marks. Problems start in the middle layer. Revenue is 865 million, up 17% year-over-year, exceeding expectations; sustained operating net profit is 226 million, only up 5%. The rain is heavy, but the landing efficiency is discounted. The crux lies in reserve income: 658 million, down 8% year-over-year. The reserve asset yield is declining, equivalent to the cloud base continuously rising, moisture evaporates before condensing into raindrops. This type of income is typical "weather-dependent precipitation," extremely sensitive to interest rates; once the subtropical high retreats, the rain belt immediately shifts southward, with no room for negotiation. The upper layer is artificial rain enhancement. The Arc chain token presale contributed 182 million, supporting most of the "other income" increase. The catalyst was launched, the echo immediately grew, but it’s not a monsoon. Writing the echo intensity of a single operation into the long-term climate state is bound to cause forecast errors. Now look at the linked targets front. The essence of tokenized US stocks is to map Wall Street’s pressure field in real time onto the on-chain isobar lines; the coupling degree between the mapped targets and underlying assets depends on the pressure gradient between the two locations. When stablecoin settlement flow expands, on-chain liquidity acts like a low-altitude jet stream, delivering momentum to these mapped targets; but once reserve yields continue to decline and the issuer’s profit model is compressed, wind shear appears in the jet stream, amplifying deviation—not synchronous rises and falls, but violent oscillations. There is another observation point that must be closely watched: transaction volume up 49%, reserve income down 8%, this divergence itself is a front. One side of the front is a warm zone telling stories through scale expansion, the other side is a cold zone living off interest spreads; once the front formation process completes, a clear weather turning point will occur. The numerical model signals are very clear: dynamic conditions are strengthening, thermal conditions are weakening, the asynchrony between the two is the easiest setup for localized strong convection and the most likely to embarrass forecasters. The old rule at the station: don’t trust a single elevation angle when looking at echoes, don’t trust a single income item when looking at reports. The most glaring line in this sounding is the downward-bending 8% contour—it’s closer to the real weather than the 49%.On-chain records show that address 0xf081 liquidated long positions in BTC, HYPE, and ZEC within the last approximately six hours, realizing a loss of about $6.09 million; immediately afterward, it shifted to establish new long positions in ETH and HYPE: 14,583 ETH worth about $33 million, 117,871 HYPE worth about $9.9 million, totaling a nominal value of about $42.9 million, with ETH priced around $2,284. The focus is not on the loss amount but on the fact that it did not choose to exit and wait but instead moved the risk exposure from the old assets to a new portfolio dominated by ETH and supported by HYPE, indicating continued betting on a rebound, just in a different direction. The question is: can this portfolio rotation recover the $6.09 million loss, or will it be forced to cut positions again? $ETH $HYPE Circle reported Q3 — and it beat: revenue and reserve income $865M, +17% YoY, vs ~$801.6M expected. The number I'm watching is USDC: average circulation $73.3B, +8% YoY, on-chain volume $13.9T, up 49%. But reserve income fell 8% to $658M, and $182M came from a one-off ARC presale. $BTC $80,286 holding the reclaim. If the core is still squeezing, does the stablecoin trade lose its shine? #Circle #USDC$BTC retraced to 79 today, I have a feeling it will go back. The Democrats took control of the two sessions, plus the previous crash was due to a hacker incident, followed by interest rate hikes. There probably aren't many long-term bulls left. There are too many negative factors ahead. It went from 64 to 87 and now down to 80, it feels like this is the top. The bullish rally was fast, but now it feels like as soon as there's a trigger, it will crash hard—not just a normal drop. I feel it will fall back to 72-76. Strategy is still buying BTC; corporate treasuries have not completely stopped Strategy disclosed on November 2 that between October 26 and November 1, it increased its holdings by 811 BTC, investing about $65.5 million, with an average purchase price of approximately $80,846. As of November 1, the position reached 849,327 BTC. This data does not align with the market narrative that "corporate treasury buying has disappeared." Although this purchase scale is lower than the 1,665 BTC bought in a week at the end of September, it is higher than the 267 and 250 BTC disclosed in the previous two weeks. What I pay more attention to is the source of purchase funds, financing costs, and company cash reserves, rather than simply counting the number of BTC bought. Corporate treasury purchases are a long-term allocation behavior and may not immediately drive spot prices. For $BTC, the next focus is whether ETFs and corporate treasuries form a combined demand. Different buyers operate on different rhythms, so one company's actions cannot represent the entire market. #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Sentiment Scissor Difference: Large Holders Are Long, Retail Investors Are Swinging The latest position snapshot shows that BTC, ETH, and CORE exhibit the same "scissor difference": top large holders lean long, while ordinary accounts swing between long and short. BTC's overall long-short ratio is 1.0589, with longs at 51.43% versus shorts at 48.57%, showing only a slight bullish lead; after a slight price pullback, the short-term trend remains mainly sideways. ETH's overall long-short ratio is 0.9596, with shorts at 51.03% slightly outweighing longs at 48.97%, but top large holder accounts remain predominantly long, showing a stark contrast. CORE's overall long-short ratio is 0.9869, with shorts slightly leading at 50.33%, yet OKX accounts have a high proportion of longs; after a prolonged deep decline, even with news stimuli, sentiment has not truly recovered. The core signal is not "who absolutely dominates," but "who is positioning contrarily": retail investors swing between long and short, while large holders cluster on the long side. BTC sentiment is slightly bullish, while ETH and CORE show retail bearishness and large holder bullishness. This split easily triggers back-and-forth order sweeps, increasing the probability of sideways movement; combined with external news disturbances, the risk of rapid price spikes is also rising. In the short term, chasing orders requires caution, with timing being more important than direction. $BTC $ETH $CORE The 321 tons reported by central banks does not equal the publicly disclosed gold purchases of only 321 tons According to data from the World Gold Council, central banks and official institutions' estimated gold purchases in Q3 were about 321 tons, but the publicly reported net purchases were only about 120 tons, with the unreported portion accounting for approximately 63% of the estimated demand. This means the market's view of national-level gold purchase data is incomplete. Some institutions may not have disclosed in a timely manner, and research institutions need to estimate actual demand using other channels. Therefore, analyzing central bank gold purchases cannot rely solely on how much a certain country bought in public news. Data scope, disclosure timing, and estimation methods are all important. I will use this indicator to observe long-term gold reserve demand rather than short-term predictions. On-chain data for $BTC has similar issues; address activity does not equal the real number of users, so understanding the statistical scope is essential. #全球央行Q3购金321吨，金价为何持续承压？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Meta's capital expenditure this year is up to $145 billion, and the investment return cycle is worth watching Meta's Q3 earnings forecast capital expenditure of $135 billion to $145 billion in 2026, mainly to support AI infrastructure and core business development. Meanwhile, the company's total debt as of September 30 is about $83.67 billion. Capital expenditure and debt are not the same concept, but combined, investors naturally pay more attention to cash flow and the balance sheet. If AI recommendation systems, advertising efficiency, and new product revenue can continue to improve, infrastructure investment may form a long-term competitive advantage; if revenue realization lags behind expenditure growth, financing costs will gradually become a pressure. I will pay attention to Meta's subsequent advertising revenue, server utilization, and changes in capital expenditure. The $BTC market also needs to watch funding costs and not just focus on the growth story of the tech industry. #Meta再发债150亿美元，融资成本上升 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Baseline (Q1 FY26): Revenue flat (¥937.1 billion), operating profit ¥202 billion, up 37% year-on-year, profit surge mainly due to tariff refunds and exchange rate benefits; however, console sales declined, third-party software revenue weakened, and continued investment in next-gen consoles is required. PS5 installed base has exceeded 93 million units, with 125 million monthly active accounts, showing a solid user base. • This quarter's expectations ✅ Positive catalysts: The biggest highlight is "GTA6," with the market expecting extremely high first-month sales, which will drive consoles, accessories, in-game purchases, and platform commissions; PS+ subscriptions, legacy game DLC, and cross-generation content continue to contribute stable cash flow. ❌ Drag factors: PS5 hardware sales decline year by year; next-gen console R&D and restructuring costs continue to eat into profits; if there is no major first-party exclusive this quarter, the software side may be weak. ◦ Market consensus: Slight revenue growth, profits likely to remain high but hard to replicate Q1's rapid growth; if GTA6 pre-sales exceed expectations, optimistic forecasts may rise after the earnings report; conversely, if pre-sales fall short, the sector may face pressure. Summary outlook in one sentence Games: High profits but heavily reliant on blockbuster titles. The key to Q2 earnings is GTA6 pre-sale data; without this hit, the gaming business is likely to be "stable but not explosive." Music: The most stable cash cow with higher growth certainty than games, serving as Sony's defensive foundation.The most prominent floating profit short position in the contract market is still held under VBVIT. Monitoring shows: This anonymous trader holds about 1376.07 BTC in 25x short positions, nominally about 104 million USD, with an average opening price of about 79,860.8 USD; the current floating profit is about 4.89 million USD, with an additional funding fee of about 426,000 USD. The total nominal account value is about 163 million USD, with shorts accounting for about 95%. At the time of writing, BTC is around 78,554 USD. My judgment: The current price is only about 1,300 USD away from the average price, and with 25x leverage, this buffer is not thick. If he continues to be bearish, he may add shorts in batches below the average price, but this will increase the risk of a pullback; a more rational approach is to first close part of the position to lock in profits, thereby increasing the distance between the position and the liquidation price. Next, watch the 79,000 level: if BTC continues to be suppressed, he may continue to hold; if it rebounds to around 79,860, the shrinking floating profit will force him to reduce risk first. $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥 It's understandable that the market is celebrating as the US boots have landed, but don't forget that the Democratic Party has always advocated for strong AI regulation, so some emotional reaction in the US tech stocks is normal. However, A-share tech stocks shouldn't dance along. The logic is simple: if the US really tightens AI regulation and slows down development, that is precisely our window of opportunity. The East rising and the West falling is not just a slogan, it's a structural opportunity. Focus on the policy support strength and actual implementation progress of the domestic AI industry chain; this is the real source of alpha. Don't be misled by emotions.Democrats control both chambers, $BTC rebounds instead of falling: What might the bears have missed? With Democrats taking both the House and Senate, Trump's fiscal and regulatory agenda for the next two years will face stronger constraints. Logically, policy uncertainty leans bearish, but BTC did not continue to decline; instead, it quickly pulled back from below $76,000, approaching $78,000 again. The key is not just the "bad news priced in," but that capital is repricing: after the election results became clear, the dollar weakened and risk appetite warmed; on election day, BTC options saw large block trades with a nominal value of about $660 million, with bullish buys dominating, and short covering may have amplified the rebound. Historically, BTC has risen about 53.7% on average in the 12 months following the last three midterm elections, but the sample size is too small to mechanically extrapolate this round. My view: short-term blind shorting is not advisable; short positions near $79,488 must have clear invalidation conditions. Going forward, focus on ETF capital flows, the dollar index trend, and whether the price can hold key resistance. You can stick to your directional view, but don't stubbornly bear the risk. $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 SOL｜About $95.23: Weak oscillation this week, baseline observation range 93.5—98.5 Last night surged to 98.06, then retreated to 94.65 by early morning, the most significant pullback among the three. Current price is below the 10-day moving average of about 97.13 and also below the 20-day moving average of about 100.75. Bullish shift: First reclaim 98—98.5, then see if the daily chart can hold 100—101; only after confirming the latter is there stronger support for a recovery to 103—104. Bearish shift: If 93.5—94 breaks and fails to recover, be cautious of retesting 89.7—90. There are two important test points this week: the US employment report at 21:30 on November 6 and the US CPI at 21:30 on November 10. Whether the above supports hold after data release is a better indicator of rebound sustainability than a brief surge before the release. ETH｜About $2,421: Weekly oscillation with an upward bias, focus on whether it can break through 2,500 Last night it surged to 2,448, currently still holding above 2,400, with a smaller pullback compared to SOL. Among the three, I am more optimistic about ETH continuing to test upward this week. Strengthening: Support holds at 2,375—2,390 on pullbacks, then breaks through 2,445—2,450, expected to challenge the 50-day moving average near 2,500—2,510. Only after stabilizing on the daily chart will it be upgraded to a clearer uptrend. Weakening: If 2,335—2,350 fails to hold, the rebound structure will significantly weaken, with the downside first looking at 2,300. BTC｜About 80,144: Weekly tendency to fluctuate between 78,000—82,000 After surging to 81,131 last night, it fell back and is currently holding near 80,000. The rebound brought the price back near the 20-day moving average, but the 50-day moving average around 81,900 above remains a resistance. Bullish signal: Holding 79,500—80,000 and stabilizing above 81,800—82,000 on the daily chart provides a stronger basis to target 83,000—84,000. Bearish signal: If it breaks below 78,000 and the rebound fails to recover, be cautious of retesting near 75,600.Term Structure Radar The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-buy far-sell quote spread is +1.22%, with the first-level pairing scale about $113; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 1%. Under small capacity, impact will quickly eat up the spread. The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The near-buy far-sell quote spread is +0.56%, with the first-level pairing scale about $2; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.02%. The smaller the capacity, the higher the impact ratio. $SOL marked spread is positive, but the near-buy far-sell first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +0.34%, far-month annualized +0.54%; marked near-far difference +0.19%, near-buy far-sell first-level quote spread -1.12%. The executable direction is opposite to the mark.Democrats sweep both chambers, crypto market dips first out of respect With the midterm election results finalized, the Democrats have taken control of both the House and Senate. The previously hyped "crypto-friendly easing" expectations in the market were instantly discounted. BTC promptly broke below 76,000, ETH followed trembling, with no decent resistance visible on the price charts. The logic is straightforward: regulatory hawks like Warren are about to take charge of the Banking Committee, and the CLARITY Act will basically be shelved until next year. Until the bill is passed, exchanges, stablecoins, and DeFi will all have to endure in a gray area. The market isn't afraid of bad news, but of no news — and that's exactly the current state. In the midterm, BTC still depends on liquidity; how tightly the Fed turns the faucet is more tangible than who controls Capitol Hill. ETH depends on whether subsequent ETF and L2 narratives can withstand regulatory rhetoric, as the imagination for the application layer still exists, though short-term macro sentiment is pressing it down. Operationally, don't chase news stubbornly. This crypto wave is priced on "uncertainty discount," and until that discount is repaired, any rebound is a window to reduce positions. Old coins like ZEC may occasionally jump, but don't take that as a trend signal. In short: change of control in both chambers, bills stalled, liquidity depends on the Fed's mood, ETH depends on whether the ecosystem can self-sustain. Wait for the wind, don't wait for the knife to fall. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Individual stock perpetual contracts were just approved, but industry organizations have already filed lawsuits After the CFTC announced that individual stock perpetual futures can be traded on qualified markets, institutions such as Capital Markets Alliance filed lawsuits attempting to block the related authorization. Participants include industry forces supported by Cboe and Citadel Securities. The controversy centers on whether these contracts should be regarded as security futures or possibly fall under the regulatory scope of other securities derivatives. The interpretation of regulatory authority may determine whether the product can expand smoothly in the future. This reminds me that there is still a gap between policy announcements and legal implementation. Traders should not only focus on the positive statements from regulators but also pay attention to court procedures and subsequent rules. The $BTC market has also experienced regulatory disputes in the past. The long-term direction may be compliance, but the short term will still be affected by lawsuits, approvals, and product restrictions. #CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #US Midterm Elections: Democrats Take Control of Both Houses of Congress Brothers, the results are out, and the Democrats have taken control of both houses of Congress. Old Mo straight up says: this is definitely a midterm bearish signal for the crypto space. Why? The Senate Banking Committee is very likely to be headed by Warren, who is famously known as an "anti-crypto hardliner." The CLARITY Act that everyone was hoping for is basically dead, and future regulatory crackdowns will only get harsher. So why did Bitcoin violently surge to 81,199? This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. Before the election, everyone feared a Democratic win and forcibly pushed the price down to 75,690. Now that the results are out and the bearish news is fully priced in, shorts are forced to cover, and combined with a short squeeze in the options market, it triggered a strong bullish candle. But remember, after the emotional venting, we still have to face reality. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Previously, U.S. institutions wanting to trade perpetual contracts basically had to go through overseas channels. Now Coinbase Prime has opened the door. According to PANews, Coinbase Prime is opening regulated global options and perpetual contract trading to institutional clients in the U.S. and other eligible regions. U.S. and global traders share the same liquidity pool, with market-making liquidity provided by Deribit. The initial coverage includes more than 20 assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, AVAX, and HYPE. Collateral support includes BTC, ETH, and USDC, with plans to expand further. Observation 1: The inclusion of mainstream coins and high-volatility assets like HYPE in the initial list usually means deeper contract liquidity and incremental capital entering the institutional channel. Observation 2: The risk lies in whether U.S. institutions will actually deposit funds and generate trading volume, and that after the launch of perpetual contracts, the leverage crowding on the same batch of assets will increase, leading to more severe liquidations during sharp rises and falls. Are you more focused on the mainstays like BTC and ETH in the initial list, or on more elastic assets like HYPE, AVAX, and XRP? The US stock market performed quite well, with AMD playing a major role. AMD's Q3 data center revenue reached 8.546 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. The Q4 guidance of 17 billion exceeded expectations, causing after-hours trading to surge over 9%. Nvidia followed with a 2.29% increase, reclaiming the global No.1 market cap spot from Apple. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, CoreWeave rose over 7%, and Oracle gained nearly 6%. But honestly, half of this rebound is just a recovery from the heavy October sell-off; the semiconductor index dropped 15% that month, so it's not entirely due to a sudden improvement in fundamentals. AMD's free cash flow actually looks poor, down 64% year-over-year, with inventory piling up nearly 3 billion. The market is currently choosing to focus on revenue guidance first.$BTC hovers around seventy-seven thousand dollars, $ETH stands above two thousand three hundred dollars, and $SOL is stuck at the ninety-three dollar mark — all three slightly rose today, and voices shouting "the reversal is here" have started to emerge again. But breaking down this movement, it looks more like a technical correction after overselling rather than a trend reignition 🔥 First, look at the strongest evidence: the trading volume throughout the cycle has almost dried up. What does this mean? It means this rally is not driven by new money entering the market, but by short covering combined with a very thin layer of buying, which "lifted" the price. Volume is the fuel of the market; the fuel wasn't added, yet the vehicle moved, which itself is a warning sign. The second signal is hidden in the liquidation data. Most of the recent hours' liquidations were shorts; in other words, the market is clearing out those who chased shorts at the lowest point. A typical feature of this "short squeeze" rebound is that it comes fast but lacks sustainability because its driving force is stop-losses, not consensus. The third and most critical signal is the daily-level structure. None of the repair points have been properly fixed. Price can deceive, volume can deceive, but structure will not. Until the daily framework gives a clear reversal signal, any rebound can only be defined as a rebound. So the current position is awkward: chasing longs means catching a rebound's flying knife; shorting at the top means running into the barrel of a short squeeze. What’s truly worth doing is waiting for the repair to be in place, waiting for volume and structure to simultaneously give clear signals, then placing bets. Impatience is never a reason to enter; patience is the scarcest position at this stage. OneNasdaq has approved the listing registration of Canary Staked INJ ETF, ticker INJC. According to PANews, Nasdaq has approved the Form 8-A12B listing registration for Canary Staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) under Canary Capital. The fund plans to stake at least 90% of INJ on the network, with BitGo as the custodian. It still requires the S-1 registration statement to become effective before it can be publicly traded. This is Injective's first staking ETF to receive a listing admission. Opinion: If the compliance channel opens, staking operations may continuously lock up part of the circulating supply, providing medium-term buying support for INJ; however, short-term movements are more driven by sentiment catalysts, and real incremental funds will wait until the product officially launches. Scenario 1: S-1 becomes effective and fundraising begins, with focus on whether the first-day scale and staking ratio can remain stable above 90%. Scenario 2: Listing is delayed or fundraising falls short of expectations, in which case the benefits of this small-cap ETF are easily quickly given back. Are you more concerned about the timing of the S-1 effectiveness or the scale of the first-day fundraising? $RIOT 矿工是BTC的杠杆，这话今晚只对一半。 RIOT财报后涨16.6%，HUT跌21%，MARA只跌1.9%。BTC自己24小时才涨3.5%。同一个板块，三个方向走出来。 RIOT涨的不是挖矿。它跟一家没披露名字的前沿AI实验室签了Corsicana园区910MW、15年租约，初始合同280亿美元，两次续约全拿满540亿，长期数据中心合同收入报到380亿。 代价写在财报里：今年前九个月卖了20264枚BTC、约15亿美元，光三季度卖10599枚，是同期挖出来那1637枚的6.5倍，持仓从11380枚掉到2418枚。 HUT那边收入下滑，盘前就被按下去两成。MARA没故事，跟着BTC晃。OKX上RIOT永续持仓才11万美元，涨16%的盘口薄得离谱，别拿它当情绪指标。 现在给矿工定价的是电和地，不是算力。我去年还在算人家关机价，算盘直接打空。 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $ZEC 1352, the high point ZEC touched last night at 11 PM. Now at 1286, a 4.8% pullback in four hours, but still showing +6.3% over 24 hours. The breaking news is still reporting that the NU7 upgrade activation is imminent, and ZEC reached 1313. 1313 was the price around 10 o'clock; those who chased in then are now underwater. I'm watching open interest and volume. At 10 PM, open interest was $189 million, now $177.9 million, down by $11.5 million. One-hour trading volume shrank from 16.83 million contracts to 1.26 million contracts, down to one-thirteenth. The spike up is even stranger: price pushed higher, but open interest dropped by 3.49%. The reduction in open interest during the spike strongly suggests short covering, not new longs taking over. The funding rate confirms this — it rose over six basis points, the upgrade is imminent, yet the perpetual funding rate is stuck at the 0.01% baseline, not a penny premium. If someone were rushing to front-run NU7, the funding rate wouldn't be this quiet. I won't chase this structure; I'll wait for the upgrade to land and the corresponding K-line to appear before making a move. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Sony Earnings Report Expectations: How Did the Gaming and Music Sectors Perform? 🚨 Two Bitcoin mining companies sold thousands of bitcoins to fund artificial intelligence projects 🔴 Riot (RIOT) sold 20,264 bitcoins this year to fund an AI data center and currently holds 2,418 bitcoins. HUT (HUT)$BTC 👀 Reviewing the $BTC trend after the U.S. midterm elections, both 2018 and 2022 indeed saw significant pullbacks, but directly applying those two cases to today is not rigorous. The key difference lies in the price level: before the previous two pullbacks started, BTC was near its yearly low, with fragile sentiment and insufficient buffer; currently, BTC is about 33% above the yearly low, with different market cost, leverage, and position structures. This does not mean the risk has disappeared, but rather that "a drop after the election" is not a fixed script. History can provide risk warnings but cannot replace judgment on current liquidity, capital conditions, and sentiment. For $BTC, what deserves more attention is whether key support levels hold and if volume can cooperate, rather than just focusing on year-to-year comparisons. History can be reviewed, but trading must be based on the facts. #U.S. Midterm Elections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress Strategy showed divergent signals in treasury operations last week From October 26 to November 1, Strategy raised funds through a common stock issuance to purchase 811 BTC, spending about $65.5 million at an average price of $80,846, increasing its total holdings to 849,327 BTC. However, in the same week, the company used about $208.2 million in cash to repurchase STRC preferred shares, an amount more than three times the expenditure on buying BTC, causing the USD cash reserve to drop sharply from about $242.4 million to about $132.7 million. Institutional funding also showed weakness. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $27.4 million on November 3, marking three consecutive days of withdrawals, though this was significantly narrower than the approximately $398.6 million outflow on November 2, indicating a weakening outflow momentum. Personal judgment: Strategy's moves this week lean more towards optimizing the preferred stock liabilities rather than simply increasing long positions, so it is not advisable to view this as a basis for trend-based long positions in the short term. On the market, BTC in the Asian morning session fell under pressure from around 78,000, currently trading near 77,000, with a 24-hour high-low range of about 78,049/76,360 and a funding rate of about 0.01%. Short-term focus is on the 76,800 support level, which was tested multiple times in the morning session; if it breaks down effectively, consider reducing positions. The first resistance is at 77,500, and only after stabilizing above this can the target of 78,000 be considered. Stop loss is set below 76,500, with a target temporarily at 78,000, maintaining a light position.WLD、TAO、RENDER今天全部下跌约4%—5%，过去7天的跌幅也都超过12%。AI板块没有出现明显的资金回流，前期跌幅越深的方向，反而越难形成有效反弹。 $WLD 目前约0.37美元，过去7天下跌超过14%。0.36—0.366美元是第一支撑，上方0.385—0.39美元存在压力。重新站稳0.40美元才能改善结构，跌破0.36美元则要防继续测试0.34美元。 $TAO 目前约220美元，过去7天下跌约12.4%。218—220美元先看承接，上方228—232美元存在压力。突破235美元才能扩大修复，失守218美元则要防继续测试210美元。TAO近期相对抗跌，但短期依然偏弱。 $RENDER 目前约1.48美元，过去7天下跌约13.5%。1.46—1.48美元是第一支撑，上方1.54—1.57美元存在压力。重新站稳1.60美元才能改善结构，跌破1.45美元则要防继续下探。RENDER尚未出现明显止跌信号。ETF流出、机构减速，唱衰派还没喊够，可BTC已重新站回8万了！（多军永不言败 10月30日和11月2日，美国现货BTC ETF累计净流出约10.42亿美元，企业财库增持也在放缓。 随后虽然ETF流出有所收窄，但市场仍认为买盘不足，反弹缺乏持续资金支撑。 可 到了11月4日至5日，行情却给出了另一种答案。美国中期选举结果逐渐明朗，政治不确定性消退，加密市场开始修复。 尤其今天BTC重新站上8万美元，ETH从2200多美元反弹至2400美元上方，表现尤其突出。 反观SOL，涨幅明显落后（这次多少有点跟不上队伍了 再骂它一次 BTC：80,396美元，+3.52% ETH：2,431美元，+5.77% SOL：96.94美元，+3.55% 现在的割裂感越来越明显：ETF资金流出，价格却在修复； BTC站稳8万， ETH领涨， SOL相对滞后 唱衰的声音或许可以先消停一会儿了。资金流出不代表市场只能下跌， 接下来就看这轮修复能不能持续 $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 $APR Regarding this coin, I have been continuously following it for nearly half a year. Recently, on-chain transaction volume showed that the whale was accumulating for two days with increased volume. After a recent spike and pullback, the current price is at the whale's previous accumulation cost zone. I believe going long here offers a much better risk-reward ratio than going short, so it's worth taking a chance.This building has no load-bearing walls, yet it plans to add three more floors. $DOGE has surged 5.43% in 24 hours. From a structural review perspective, this looks more like a facade renovation rather than a main structure elevation. First, let's look at the constraints of the enclosure structure. Within the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price has already reached 72% of the band range, with only 1.0% of clearance left before hitting the upper band, while downward there is still a 2.6% retracement buffer. The mid-term is even more extreme. The price stands at 92% of the band range, only 0.7% from the upper band, but 8.4% away from the lower band. This is equivalent to pushing the building's footprint to the cantilever limit, then fully loading the eaves with materials. The floor height seems sufficient, but the load path is missing. Next, look at the stress indicators. The one-hour RSI has crossed the critical line of 64, the short-term value is 67.9, while the long-term RSI is only 50.3. The two curves differ by nearly 18 points. This is a typical "upper structure is moving, foundation is not." The short-term momentum is supported by scaffolding, but the long-term foundation has not caught up at all. Such a node on the blueprint requires a re-calculation of the load transfer path. So my judgment is clear: this is high-altitude work, not foundation construction. The signal direction given is downward correction, and I will not chase longs at the cantilever end; I will wait for the price to be pushed to a temporary support level before placing short orders. 📉 Short: Entry: 0.0724 (current price +3.4%) Take Profit 1: 0.0666 (-4.9%) Take Profit 2: 0.0646 (-7.7%) Stop Loss: 0.0800 (current price +14.3%) Take Profit 1 is near the short-term lower band. That is the first place with real concrete. Take Profit 2 reaches the mid-term 8.4% buffer zone. The stop loss is set at a 14.3% height because although this building has no load-bearing walls, the short-term wind load can still push the price through the 1% upper band margin. The budget must be sufficient; the safety factor must never be compressed to one. Whether a project is worth holding long-term is never judged by how lively the renderings are. It is judged by how many retracements it can withstand without collapsing.