#USPPIBelowForecasts
About USPPIBelowForecasts
US October PPI rose 0.3% MoM and 6.5% YoY, below forecasts of 0.4% and 6.6%, though annual growth hit a near-four-year high. Earlier payrolls and core CPI exceeded expectations, while Fed officials stressed the need to curb inflation. After PPI, market-implied odds of a 25 bps December hike rose from ~86% to 91%, while 50 bps odds fell. Bank of America now forecasts 25 bps hikes in December 2026 and January and March 2027.
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📊 PPI came in cooler than expected. The Fed’s 50 bps rate-hike scenario just lost some momentum.
The US released its October 2026 Producer Price Index (PPI) on November 13, showing a smaller monthly increase than economists expected.
📉 PPI data:
- Monthly PPI: +0.3%, below the +0.4% forecast.
- Annual PPI: +6.5%, below the +6.6% forecast.
- Annual inflation accelerated from 6.3% in September.
- Core PPI: +0.3% MoM and +5.0% YoY, matching expectations.
🏦 December Fed rate-hike expectations (LSEG data cited by TechFlow):
- 25 bps hike: 91%, up from 86%.
- 50 bps hike: 9%, down from 14%.
Market angle: Softer-than-expected monthly producer inflation reduced expectations of an aggressive 50 bps hike. However, annual PPI accelerated to its highest level since November 2022, so inflation pressure remains a concern.
The market is leaning toward 25 bps instead of 50 bps. That’s a smaller punch from the Fed, not a promise of a rate cut. 👀
Will the PPI relief be enough to ease pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets?
U.S. PPI drops ~25 minutes after this post. Bitcoin already broke the floor.
$BTC ~$69,200 at 20:05 ICT on Binance, −5.1% in 24h, after a $67,568 low. $70,000 is the first test; reclaiming $71,113–$72,000 = repair. A close under $67,568 = no floor yet. October PPI lands 20:30 ICT (BLS); September printed +1.3% m/m. A hot print feeds rate-hike fears.
NFA.
#Bitcoin #PPI
Buying before PPI, or after?
The Fed is the real story behind this crash. Core CPI beat forecasts for a third straight month and the hawkish chorus is getting louder — $BTC is paying the price at $68,749. December is the next catalyst: a hawkish Fed keeps $67,568 in play, but PPI came in cooler at +0.3% — the data isn't all hawkish. Reclaim $70K and this turns into a relief rally. Is December a hike or a hold in your book? #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
MS Awan
#FedHawkishChorus Higher interest rates could put pressure on stocks, Bitcoin and other risk assets.
The US dollar and Treasury yields could benefit from a hawkish Fed.
Crypto Market Impact
A stronger US dollar and higher interest rates could create selling pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins. However, market reactions will depend on upcoming inflation data and Fed decisions.
My Take: Investors should watch the December Fed meeting closely. A more hawkish stance could increase volatility.
TODAY: 🇺🇸U.S. stocks RETRACED their early gains within 30 minutes of the market open.
Stocks opened SLIGHTLY higher after October PPI rose 0.3% month over month, below the 0.4% forecast, and while $NVDA recovered some recent losses during pre market.
The indexes then PULLED BACK from early-session levels:
• Dow −0.46%
• Nasdaq Composite −0.64%
• S&P 500 −0.55%
Despite the SOFTER monthly reading, annual wholesale inflation accelerated to 6.5% from 6.3%, keeping inflation concerns in focus.
