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On October 12, the US spot $ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $85.4 million, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of net outflows. Ajian suggests that friends holding ETH should at least re-examine their original reasons for holding before making any moves. Is the ETF expected to continuously bring incremental buying? Or is there long-term usage demand? One cannot simply replace data with vision. Positions can remain unchanged for now, but the reasons for buying should not remain outdated forever #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ BTC、ETH现货ETF同步录得净流出，是比较值得警惕的信号，但不能直接等同于长线机构大规模离场。同步赎回，代表愿意新增配置的边际资金变少，短期风险偏好回落。 背后核心诱因还是美联储加息预期反复，美债收益率高位，压制所有高beta风险资产。不少属于短线配置、CTA以及套利资金，在宏观不确定性上升时选择获利了结、降风险，属于跨资产的risk-off行为，并非长期战略资金集体看空。 区分重点：边际需求走弱 ≠ 长期需求消失。如果只是单日或短期流出，更多是调仓；只有连续多日、持续大额流出，才是更强的利空，行情容易失去增量支撑，转为存量博弈，反弹会更吃力。 后续验证标准：看流出能否快速收窄、重回净流入。若持续流出，每次反弹都容易被ETF卖盘压制；一旦数据修复，才代表机构配置意愿重新回暖。这个指标适合当成情绪和资金面参考，不能单一用来预判涨跌。$BTC $ETH $ZEC About $18.58 million long positions of HYPE were liquidated in the past 24 hours, but in the last 4 hours, shorts suffered more: short positions liquidated about $117,000, while longs only $615. From 13:05 to 13:06 on October 13 (Beijing time), this contrast appeared in the CoinGlass sub-table. At the same time, ZEC long positions liquidated about $21.38 million in the past 24 hours; in the last 4 hours, longs about $62,200, shorts $900,200. ETH is similar: 24-hour long liquidations about $145 million, last 4 hours longs $502,500, shorts $21.15 million. The 4-hour data is included in the 24-hour data, so the two numbers should not be added. The side that lost more over the whole day may be opposite to the side currently being squeezed; focusing only on the "long liquidations" headline for the whole day can easily overlook short-term short pressure. This statistic is the scale of forced liquidations of contracts, not net losses of accounts. Source: CoinGlass original sub-table, covering platform statistics but not the entire market; the chart was captured at the above time. The three coins correspond to actual sub-items, with related spot market navigation below. #VolatilityRadar: Coin movement observation $HYPE $ZEC $ETH Big Brother Maji gave back $12.3 million in profits, leaving only $290,000 in the account $ETH fell 4% today. Big Brother Maji almost completely gave back the $12.3 million profit accumulated from rolling long positions starting at $1,900, leaving only $290,000 in the account. He currently still holds 3,500 ETH long positions. If $ETH drops about $30 more to $2,393, the remaining funds face the risk of liquidation.ARB/USDT Perpetual Daily Level --> Currently operating in a rebound market; if the resistance level cannot be surpassed, a short position can be opened. My view: The price peaked and pulled back at 0.25569, currently oscillating within the high-level purple central zone. The overall major trend has shifted from a one-sided rise to high-level consolidation, with short-term pressure. A short can be attempted when the rebound hits the 0.198 resistance zone, targeting the 0.174 support low, with a stop loss set above 0.206. Once the price stabilizes above this level, the bearish idea is invalidated. Chan Theory Structure: Starting from the low of 0.07040, a daily-level main upward wave was initiated, rising steadily to a high of 0.25569; after the peak, a purple daily central zone was formed on the chart. The current market is within this central oscillation range. The pullback from the high has not yet left the central zone downward, indicating a consolidation after the rise, not a complete transition to a one-sided downtrend. Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation: The K-line at the peak 0.25569 showed a large volume phase, with funds concentrated on taking profits and exiting; after entering the central oscillation, each rebound's volume gradually decreases, the bullish buying strength continues to weaken, and the selling pressure volume on down K-lines has risen, showing a gradual exhaustion of bullish momentum. Core Observation: Focus on the 0.198 resistance level; if the rebound stalls here and volume cannot keep up, it is an opportunity to short; if volume breaks above 0.206, it indicates bulls are regaining strength, the central oscillation chooses to break upward, and the short position idea should be abandoned.$BOME is securing profits, $BTC along with the broader market shows signs of stopping the decline, likely to oscillate between 81k and 84k recently. Under these circumstances, bome is also very likely bottoming out. Anyway, it still feels like until the PPI and CPI data are released, crypto won't have a clear direction. Brothers trading $BTC and Ethereum these days should have a feeling: it doesn't really drop, nor rise decisively. When you trade the trend, it gives you oscillations; when you try to trade the oscillation waves, it breaks down or breaks up in minutes! So the best approach is to stop trading for now, wait for the data release, and then start trading again when things are clearer! #September CPI release is imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? Data Week Is Here: What Will Decide Crypto’s Next Move? ⏳ $BTC at 83,406, $ETH at 2,550, $SOL at 111, and $XAUT at 4,171. The market feels frozen, as traders wait for the next major catalyst. ⏸️ Three key forces could determine the next direction: 🌍 Geopolitics and Oil Prices: Disruptions in the Middle East could push energy prices higher and reignite inflation concerns. Gold may benefit from safe-haven demand, but a stronger dollar and rising real yields could also weigh on its price. Safe-Assassin Community UEX Daily Report｜Oil prices surge, Nasdaq falls back, Strategy still buying I am Assassin Bro, today’s market, oil prices are the main focus. On October 12, US stocks diverged: Dow up 0.38%, S&P down 0.06%, Nasdaq down 0.44%. Among the seven tech giants, four rose and three fell. Meta rose 3.38% due to releasing a new AI model, Microsoft up 1.14%, Nvidia down 1.29%. Meta is holding up thanks to the Muse Wonder series models; AI competition has extended from computing power to intelligent agents and commercialization. The biggest variable is oil prices. Saudi airports were attacked, raising Middle East supply risks again. Brent crude rose to $106.65, a near one-month high. The US dollar index also hit an 18-month high. Cleveland Fed President Hammack emphasized maintaining restrictive policies. High oil prices plus high interest rates put pressure on risk assets from both ends. On the crypto side, BTC is around 82,527, down 1.57% in 24 hours. ETH is at 2,515, down 0.43%. Total market cap is 2.88 trillion, with a 24-hour change of about 0.7%. Today's liquidation map data was not obtained, so no guesses on liquidation zones. Strategy is still buying. From October 5 to 11, it increased holdings by 250 BTC at an average price of about $86,194, total holdings rose to 848,250 BTC, cumulative cost about 64 billion, average cost 75,444. Current price 82,399, about 9.22% higher than cost. Note, only 250 BTC were bought this week, scale is not large, cannot solely rely onRecently, the barber downstairs was chatting about this. At first, I just listened for fun. Later, on a whim, I took a few hundred bucks to test the waters. My first purchase was $BTC. After buying, it went sideways and then dropped. It dropped so much that I couldn't even eat peacefully. A few days later, I tried $ETH. There’s really a lot going on there. The fees are also really expensive. One wrong click and the whole transaction is wasted. Then I heard $SOL is fast. I transferred some small change to roam around on the chain. It’s really fast. But the traps are dense too. Some projects were there in the morning and gone by the evening. After losing a few times, I gradually calmed down. I don’t chase hot topics. I don’t follow pump calls. I don’t touch what I don’t understand. I write down my private keys myself. I don’t give them to anyone who asks. I don’t click on unknown links. No matter how tempting an airdrop is, I don’t connect my wallet recklessly. Now I only use money I can afford to lose. I just leave it there. When it rises, I don’t get cocky. When it falls, I don’t panic. There are many opportunities in this field. But there are even more traps. Living long is more important than making a quick profit. Don’t borrow money. Don’t get carried away. Don’t believe in guaranteed profits. Leave the rest to time.#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? #Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high Order Book Strength Ranking 5-minute median slippage, estimated based on the order book After magnifying orders for BLUR and RSR, both buy and sell slippage increased significantly, with BLUR showing the highest simulated buy/sell slippage at the 100,000 scale. $BLUR simulated buy/sell slippage at 10,000 scale is 0.16%/0.16%, and at 100,000 scale is 0.99%/1.00%. $RSR simulated buy/sell slippage at 10,000 scale is 0.15%/0.16%, and at 100,000 scale is 0.66%/0.67%. $W large buy/sell costs both increased, while small sell orders remained almost unchanged. Simulated buy/sell slippage at 100,000 scale rose from 0.38%/0.27% to 0.43%/0.42%. Selling at 10,000 scale is still about 0.09%. $BTC 82,300美元附近，24小时跌1.5%左右，从84,300美元高点回落，下方81,000美元附近是支撑。 $ETH 2,460美元附近，24小时跌3%左右，反弹力度偏弱，下方2,400美元附近先看着。 $ZEC 1,266美元附近，波动更大，下方1,220美元附近是支撑。 市场情绪方面，贪婪指数还在69，但更多是空头被扫上去的轧空，不是真有人在大举进场。 ETF资金还在流出，机构态度谨慎。 散户基本都在观望，不敢重仓，多空来回扫单，操作难度很大。 后续看，今天白天大概率继续震荡磨盘。明天CPI数据出来前，行情更容易反复，别急着当反转。 这轮反弹更像是下跌后的修复震荡，不是真反转。半夜插针如果能接到支撑位，盈亏比还算可以；接不到也别硬追，等明天CPI数据出来再看方向。有实际落地、能产生收益的标的，才是真正值得多看的。 ⚠️个人盘面复盘，不构成投资建议 比特币接下来怎么走？看清算地图，第2天 和昨天比：价格 84,142 → 82,784（-1.6%） 昨天我说$BTC 向上，结果错。累计战绩：0对1错。 1今日数据 下方累计多单清算强度11亿美金，上方累计空单清算强度20亿美金。 2.必须盯的价位 8.2万：多单密集区的下沿，跌破这里第一波强平会加速 7.9万：多单最密集的一段，缓冲从这里开始变薄 8.45万：空单第一堆，全图最高的柱子之一 8.5万：空单第二堆，突破这里挤压最猛 3.可能的走势 向上：站上 83,332 开始挤空单 ，头平仓本身是买盘→ 84,449 → 85,013 → 86,141 以上几乎没有空头，阻力很薄 向下：跌破 82,000 → 79,467 多单最密集区 → 一旦连环强平打开，缓冲很薄。 4.我的判断 目前空头累计清算强度达20亿美金，多头才10亿，数据上看，往阻力最小方向更加容易。我想他涨到9万美金，但目前数据不允许，还是在8.1万到8.5万之间走一个震荡，没有趋势。 你怎么看？Unichain has been "sent away," what remains of the $UNI story? On October 29, Uniswap Labs handed over its own child Unichain to Optimism. This self-owned L2, which was only set to launch in 2025, survived just over a year before being quickly transferred. The announcement was understated, but the strategic contraction is unmistakable—Uniswap is refocusing on its core business. For UNI holders, this is not good news. The daily trading volume of the main Uniswap protocol has always been strong, but the "fee switch" sword hanging over it has been discussed for years without being implemented. Token holders watch the protocol's cash flow surge daily, yet they can't get a penny of cash flow themselves. Unichain was once the only story to tell: a self-built chain, self-controlled distribution, and the possibility of slicing the pie again in the future. Now that story has been torn apart. What remains? Trading volume data, plus the hope that "the switch will be turned on someday." But relying on hope alone, seven dollars might hold, but going higher is tough. So UNI's market moves are always in waves—pulsed rallies followed by silence. The real winning move isn't in on-chain trading volume but in how regulators classify the fee switch. Until then, holding a light position isn't too painful, but heavy positions waiting for a rebound risk burning out. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard Don't be quick to dismiss it with a "the market maker is shaking out positions"—this move in RSR feels more like a punishment for everyone rushing to take sides. Have you noticed that recently, some coins, whether going long or short, end up being scooped up by seemingly the same hand? Watching RSR these past few days, the most direct impression is: it's not following a trend, but rather creating a volatility tax. Buy spot, and the price gets pushed down; open a short contract, and the funding rate slowly eats away at you. On the surface, it looks like a directional issue, but the market is actually trading patience and position costs. Many think that for these small-cap old coins, all it takes is to wait for a pump, but they overlook that when the narrative lacks new inflows and liquidity is thin, volatility itself becomes a harvesting tool. Every sharp pump and dump you see may not be capital choosing a direction, but just shallow depth where a few orders can disrupt sentiment. Looking at the bigger picture, this is actually a risk appetite thermometer. If BTC and ETH hold steady and capital is willing to spread into high-beta altcoins, oversold old coins like RSR will have pulse opportunities because their chips are light, the cost to pump is low, and the narrative still exists. But if the market enters a phase of consolidation and contraction, these kinds of assets will be the first to lose attention—long positions get worn down by slow declines, shorts get eaten by funding fees, leaving only high turnover and low confidence. So right now, RSR feels more like a product of a volatility phase, not a trend phase winner. There is also a bullish path: once real inflows appear, such as ecosystem progress, exchange listings expectations, or BTC leading a general altcoin recovery, RSR's low-position chips will become very light, and the rebound speed might be so fast it catches people off guard. But XRP BOUNCES, BUT STRUCTURE STILL NEEDS PROOF I'm watching $XRP at 1.3688 (+1.98%) after pulling back from 1.6583. The 7D is -8.56%, yet 90D remains +22.94%. One green daily candle isn't a trend. I prefer patience over chasing relief. Do you trade bounces or wait for confirmation?超卖不等于有人要买 $BTC 跌到 82678，24 小时跌 1.23%。 RSI6 只有 7.6，这个数越小说明跌得越急。 别人怎么想：跌这么狠，超卖了，该反弹了。 这个数只说明最近几根K线几乎全是阴线。 我怎么想：超卖是过去跌出来的，不是未来买进来的。 它不产生一张买单，只记录已经卖了多少。 真要看的是谁在接。15 分钟跌破全部均线，说明挂单被一路吃穿。 下面没有承接，跌急了也只是跌得慢一点。 止损单挂在 82600 下方的，已经被扫走了。 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #Strategy增持放缓，企业财库策略生变？ #代币化资产加速扩张，规模化落地还有多远？ $BTC I'm back, brothers, I'm back Went long on sol at 109 last night Ten times leverage Was happily going to sleep Dreaming of big bullish candles But unfortunately, the dream was the opposite Woke up at seven in the morning and checked the market My remaining drowsiness was scared away immediately Sol dropped 8% in over ten hours Damn, almost cried Really, the lowest this morning dropped to 101 I liquidated at 98 This really made me feel like life was meaningless Asked friends and AI, both suggested I cut losses Almost did cut losses In the end, I just couldn't bear it and gave up a bit Then it went back up later Now it's almost back to the entry point This storm is about to end Hope it goes smoothly When I first started in crypto, I envied others making so much Now I think, isn't this just paying a mental loss fee? Those who shorted sol last night really had a blast 😂 When will I get to enjoy it! $BTC $ETH $SOL #September CPI announcement coming soon, Harker says further rate hikes still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? 前阵子小区快递员都在聊这个 我听着觉得离自己挺远 后来还是没忍住扔了几百块试 第一笔买了 $BTC 买完就跌 跌得我连饮料都少买了 接着去摸 $ETH 链上东西多 手续费也贵 一笔操作半天白忙 再后来听人说 $SOL 快 转点小钱去玩 快是真快 坑也真坑 有的项目说没就没 亏过几回才学乖 不追热点 不跟喊单 不碰看不懂的 私钥自己抄好 谁问都不给 陌生链接不点 空投再香也不乱连钱包 现在只拿亏了不心疼的钱 放着就放着 涨了不飘 跌了不慌 这行机会多 坑更多 活得久比赚一波重要 别借钱 别上头 别信稳赚 剩下的交给时间#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 Gold $XAU has really been tormenting both bulls and bears these past two days 😇 It just surged to 4222 earlier, but before it could hold above 4200, it was smashed all the way down, even touching 4156 early this morning. I originally thought it would continue downward, but then funds stepped in at the low, quickly pulling it back near 4190. The US dollar is still hovering at a high level, Federal Reserve officials keep emphasizing inflation risks, and with the US CPI due Wednesday, life is indeed tough for gold bulls. But the problem is, after all the bear pressure, they still haven't truly broken through this support level. Now, I'm less inclined to chase shorts. Let's first see if 4200 can be reclaimed. If it still can't break above, this rebound will probably struggle for a while longer. Really hope Wednesday's data gives us a clear direction 😂 #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed @OKX星球 The AI chain has started shorting on rallies; there is currently no suitable entry point. At most, just open a small base position. Then open a position in gold, which also counts as a disguised short on US dollar assets and has been adjusting for some time. It hasn't dropped below 4000, partly due to risk-off sentiment. So either choose BTC or gold. Therefore, hold $ZEC and open a position in $XAU. Since gold's volatility is not large, reduce the capital allocation; this leverage will be set to 5. If it doesn't break below 4000, don't move for now. Wait for a good opportunity in the AI chain, then reallocate positions. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Lummis fired another shot. This time it was aimed at the Democrats. She said you yourselves requested a seat in the CFTC to represent retail investors, it was clearly written in the CLARITY Act, yet you turned around and voted against it. I looked at it for a while and felt it was quite absurd. It's like you were served a dish you ordered, but you say you won't eat it. For those of us who hold crypto as a long-term position, this isn't new. The people in Washington argue back and forth, but the core issue has never been about protecting retail investors; it's about who controls this territory. Today they argue about the CFTC, tomorrow about the SEC, and the day after they change the name and keep arguing. The actual implemented rules always lag behind the news by half a beat. So this news basically has no short-term impact, and emotionally it even feels a bit negative—giving the impression that regulation is indefinitely far off. But looking at it from another angle, at least it shows this matter is still on the table, not thrown into a drawer. What do you think, will this repeated tug-of-war eventually produce a result, or will it just drag on until no one mentions it anymore? #BTC and ETH spot ETFs flow out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? #Strategy accumulation slows, corporate treasury strategies changing? #Tokenized assets accelerate expansion, how far is large-scale implementation? $HYPE $XAU Gold has reached 4200, can this wave continue to be profitable? Brothers, gold has already approached around 4200, not far from the first target we mentioned earlier! What to do next, Old K gets straight to the point! First, the funds buying gold haven't stopped! The Central Bank of Congo plans to increase its gold reserves from 3 tons to 5 tons by the end of the year. Global central banks continue to increase gold holdings, essentially to diversify risk and optimize reserve structures. Additionally, gold ETF holdings have increased by 2.281 tons, institutional funds are still worth watching, and the medium- to long-term logic for gold remains! Second, the market has already started to offer opportunities! Gold previously hit a low near 4156, then quickly pulled back, indicating funds are supporting the downside. After a sharp drop, a rebound appeared, and the 15-minute chart is gradually stabilizing, showing signs of short-term bulls gaining strength! What’s the next move? Keep watching for pullback opportunities around 4160; consider going long once it stabilizes. 4200 is the key level right now; if it breaks through and holds effectively, the next target is 4230! It’s already near 4200; if you haven’t entered yet, don’t rush to chase. If you’re already in, keep a close eye on the key levels! Old K is optimistic about the subsequent rebound but won’t mess up his rhythm just to chase the market. When the market comes, seize it; if the position isn’t right, wait! In trading, it’s not about who rushes faster but who can hold onto the profits they should take! #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed $BTC BTC goes against the weakening trend of tech stocks. BTC recovers after a dip, diverging from Korean chip stocks and Nasdaq futures ahead of US CPI data. This movement may indicate BTC temporarily decoupling from risk assets. OKX data: BTC 83,437.00 USDT, -0.82% in 24 hours, volume 583.1M USDT. Do you think BTC can maintain this independent momentum? Not investment advice. DYOR. #SepCPIHikeWatch A little butterfly felt that the colors on its body were not as beautiful as those of its companions, so it asked God to help change its colors. God granted its request and gave it the right to freely choose its colors. Pointing to the colorful flowers, God said to the little butterfly, "Whatever color you like, roll on the flowers of that color, and then you will become that color." The little butterfly was overjoyed and first rolled on the red flowers, then did not want to give up the blue flowers. So it rolled on the blue flowers as well, then it thought the yellow flowers were beautiful. In this way, it rolled on all the flowers and eventually turned into a black butterfly. It burst into tears, unable to accept that it had become the ugliest colored butterfly. People's suffering often does not come from having no choices, but from having too many choices and being at a loss. Choice is a trade-off between pros and cons; there is no perfect choice in this world, otherwise it wouldn't be called a choice. When traders face many distinctive trading methods, they often cannot make a suitable trade-off for themselves. It seems that every method has times when it profits, and also times when it causes losses. At this point, traders may choose to make no choice at all, hoping to gain the advantages of all methods. You can choose one color, but if you absorb all the colors, the result can only be black, which is no color at all! In the process of combining trading methods, not only are all the advantages of the methods combined, but also all their disadvantages are combined.Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the September CPI will be released, which is the most important reference before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28. Institutions expect that rising energy prices may push the overall CPI year-on-year from 3.4% to 3.7%, but the core CPI month-on-month growth rate may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. This combination is very critical: overall inflation is driven up by oil prices, but core inflation is cooling down. If the core CPI really slows, it indicates that price pressures have not spread, and the market will strengthen expectations for a pause in rate hikes. However, officials are not easing. Cleveland Fed President Harker clearly stated on October 12 that inflation pressures remain broad and support further rate hikes. CME data shows the market expects about a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. There is a large divergence between hawkish officials and market pause expectations. This divergence is the source of volatility tomorrow night. If the overall CPI is relatively hot but core cools, the market will lean toward pause expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will fall back, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 83,500 to 84,500. If both overall and core exceed expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, BTC will be under pressure, with support at 81,500 to 82,000, and if broken, look to 80,000. BTC is now near 82,000, up 0.8%. Many defenders are stacked near 80,000, so this position has short-term support. But the direction is not yet chosen; before the data is released tomorrow night, do not bet heavily. $ZEC $BTC $ETH 。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 ✅ Closed long $TIA 20x Entry: 0.5102 → Exit: 0.6000 Result: +350% ROE I post every trade I make, both profits and losses. Do you currently hold $TIA? Not investment advice. #OKXTraderVoices 10月12日，Strategy公告新增购入250枚BTC，同时回购约1.92亿美元STRC优先股。公司还披露，10月5日至11日动用了50万美元现金购买比特币。 我的读法：这次不只是“又买币”，也在调整融资结构。机构的资金安排和个人账户不同，别把增持公告直接当成自己的买入信号。#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ $BTC $ETH 🚨 【机构大撤退】BTC/ETH现货ETF单周失血12亿，虚胖反弹能撑多久？ 资金双杀：10月5日至9日，美国 BTC 现货 ETF 净流出约 6.79 亿美元（终结此前连续三周净流入）；ETH 现货 ETF 同期流出达 5.42 亿美元，创 1 月以来最大单周流出并录得连续 9 个交易日净流出；两者单周合计抽血高达 12.21 亿美元。  量价背离隐患：在机构主力真金白银撤离的背景下，大盘价格却一度逆势弱反弹，形成典型的“资金离场 vs 价格虚晃”背离走势。ETH 走势显著弱于 BTC，反映出机构对高弹性资产的风险偏好正加速降温。  后市推演：CPI 重磅数据落地前的大额撤退，本质是聪明钱对宏观加息阴霾与通胀黏性的避险防守。失去现货 ETF 资金筑底的弱抽蓄毫无防御力，在流向重新转为净流入之前，严禁盲目左侧押注反转。  (个人复盘观点，非投资建议。交易千万条，保住本金第一条！)Tomorrow we will look at ASML's earnings report; don't wait for a company that no longer discloses quarterly order figures. ASML has stopped revealing quarterly new order amounts this year. The previous approach of directly comparing EUV orders to expectations needs to be adjusted. The signal given by the company in Q2 is a plan to increase low NA EUV capacity by about 30% by 2027 and to study further expansion in 2028. This arrangement is more specific than just saying demand is optimistic, but it still requires subsequent deliveries to be fulfilled. Which year's equipment delivery corresponds to the customers' committed purchases? Is capacity expansion progressing as planned? These are the questions I want the management to answer. The amount for lithography machines is large, and whether orders fall at the end of the month or early next month can exaggerate a quarter's figures. Now that this disclosure is missing, investors need to cross-check customers' expansion plans with ASML's delivery schedule. Don't treat "strong long-term demand" as a universal answer. Any lag in factories, components, or installation teams can push expected revenue back. The market buys future profits; a delay of a few months can significantly impact valuation. I remain interested in EUV demand and do not want to lower my expectations for the earnings report just because of its special status. What I really want to see on October 14 is a clearer delivery timetable. No one can track order enthusiasm daily, but at least let external investors know when the expanded capacity is expected to start generating revenue. #ASMLQ3EarningsReport announced on October 14, with EUV orders as the focus $AGLD Damn it! The AGLD chart makes me shake my head. Outside it's quiet, but inside the market is like dogs biting each other. The 0.1901 level is obviously a manipulative pump-and-dump by the dog market makers. The upper shadow on the candlestick looks like a sickle, almost saying "I'm ready to dump." Even a shakeout doesn't play out like this. Do they really think retail investors are blind? 🔥 Technically, everything signals to run. The capital flow is just hollow. Don't expect any good news. Short positions for the short term, set stop loss at 0.1980. If it breaks, accept it, don't hold on. The target is around 0.1780 first; reduce your position when it gets there. Don't get emotional in this market; whether you follow or not is up to you. If you want to secretly ambush with me, click the card below and do it yourself. Control your position size and always set a stop loss. 🚀 This content is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice. 👇👇👇Today $ETH dropped, and the current price is around 2507 USD, down 1.44%. Moreover, the volatility within 24 hours was especially large, with a high of 2578 and a low of 2407, swinging 170 USD up and down in one day. Simply put: it had risen continuously for 5 days before, rising too fast, and today it started to pull back, with a fairly large correction. What changed compared to yesterday? Let me tell you a few key changes. First change: the pullback really came. Yesterday I said the short-term rise was too fast, the 4-hour RSI reached 100, so a pullback was inevitable. As a result, it really dropped today, from 2565 to 2507, down about 2.3%. And the lowest even touched 2407, just 2 USD above the previous low of 2405, indicating a quick dip that washed out those who chased the highs earlier. Second change: the overbought condition has been fully digested. Yesterday the 4-hour RSI was still 100 (extremely overbought), today it has dropped to 40; the 2-hour RSI fell from 82 to 43. This means the bubble accumulated from the rapid rise has mostly been squeezed out, now returning to a neutral zone. Third change: the big trend signal is still intact. Although the price dropped, the daily KDJ golden cross remains (K is still above D), and the MACD green bars are still shrinking. This indicates the major rebound trend has not been broken; this is just a normal pullback during the upward process. Fourth change: short sellers are still exiting. Open interest has decreased again, from 580,000 to 560,000. This shows short sellers are still closing positions and running; with them gone, there are fewer sellers pressing down. Should you buy or sell now? I think this is a position where you can consider light positioning, but not heavy, because tomorrow night there is CPI data. Why say it’s a position to consider? First, the overbought condition has been digested, so short-term it won’t fall much. Second, the price is now at 2507, right near the 5-day moving average (2514), which is a short-term support level. Third, the big trend signal is still intact, the daily KDJ golden cross remains. Fourth, below that is the 60-day moving average (2492) and the lower Bollinger Band (2450), strong supports that are hard to break. But why say don’t go heavy? Because tomorrow (October 14) at 8:30 PM the CPI data will be released, which is very important. Before the data comes out, no one can predict what will happen. If the data is bad (inflation higher than expected), there might be another drop; if the data is good (inflation lower than expected), the price will continue to rise. So at this position, you can buy a little lightly first, then add more after the data clarifies the direction. What will happen next? I think there are three possibilities. First possibility (most likely, 50%): oscillate between 2490 and 2550, waiting for tomorrow’s CPI data. For the rest of today and tomorrow daytime, it will likely fluctuate in this range, everyone waiting for the evening data, no one daring to act rashly. Second possibility (30%): good CPI data, continue to rebound. If tomorrow night’s inflation data is lower than expected, indicating less pressure to raise rates, Ethereum will continue to rise, targeting first 2580, then 2625. Third possibility (20%): bad CPI data, second dip. If tomorrow night’s inflation data is higher than expected, indicating more rate hikes, Ethereum may break below 2490 to test 2450 or even the previous low of 2405. It rose too fast before, today’s pullback is normal, the overbought condition has been digested, now 2500 to 2520 is a position for light positioning, but don’t go heavy because tomorrow night’s CPI data will decide the direction. Good data means continue rising, bad data may cause a second dip. Participate lightly, set stop losses, and add positions after the data is out. The above is just my analysis based on data and does not constitute investment advice. This market is volatile, so be sure to control your position size.$NEAR This ID's view: The 30-minute chart shows a bearish pattern, but the long-term uptrend remains unchanged. Avoid entering the market for the next couple of days. NEAR peaked at 6.024 in this rally and then pulled back, representing a secondary correction after a strong rise, indicating short-term bearishness. A short position can be tried on a rebound to the 5.32 resistance zone, with a target at the 4.98 support level and a stop loss set above 5.45. If it breaks above 5.45, abandon the bearish outlook. According to Chan theory, the rise started from the 4.3 low, forming an upward consolidation zone. The 6.024 level formed a 30-minute top fractal, and the current move is a corrective wave. The long-term bullish trend remains, but short-term correction risks are evident. From the Wyckoff volume-price perspective, the high volume at the peak indicates profit-taking, and the rebound volume continues to shrink, showing weak buying support. Key observation: Stagnation at 5.32 is a shorting opportunity; a strong volume breakout and hold above 5.45 signals the end of the correction and the bearish position should be abandoned.Has the AI computing power battle spread to BTC mining farms? On October 11, according to The Information, Anthropic signed a multi-year, previously undisclosed cloud contract with cloud service provider IREN. After Barron's follow-up report on October 12, IREN's stock price surged about 4% in pre-market trading, reaching $36.57. Neither company has responded to requests for comment. Interestingly, during IREN's earnings call in August this year, they mentioned signing with a "leading cutting-edge AI lab" without naming it. Now it seems very likely to be Anthropic. If the rumor is true, won't IREN's stock price skyrocket? IREN was formerly a Bitcoin mining company and rebranded in 2024 to transform into an AI cloud provider, effectively converting mining electricity and data centers directly into AI computing power. Last year, it signed a $9.7 billion AI cloud deal with Microsoft, and in May this year, it partnered with NVIDIA to deploy 5GW of computing infrastructure—now teaming up with Anthropic, the transformation story is gaining momentum. This contract is just the tip of the iceberg. But the strangest thing is: Last night, IREN not only erased all the gains from the day before yesterday but also dropped several points, hitting a recent low! The truth of the news is uncertain; let's watch and see. Bold investors might open a small long position to bet on IREN. #IREN's first Microsoft AI cloud project delivered, mining company transformation draws attention 前年楼下便利店老板总聊这个 我当笑话听 后来手痒扔了几百块进去 第一笔买了 $BTC 买完就跌 跌得我半夜还爬起来看手机 又去碰 $ETH 链上东西多 手续费也贵 一笔操作半天白忙 再后来听人说 $SOL 快 转点小钱去试 快是真快 坑也真坑 有的项目说没就没 亏过几回才学乖 不追热点 不跟喊单 不碰看不懂的 私钥自己抄好 谁问都不给 陌生链接不点 空投再香也不乱连钱包 现在只拿亏了不心疼的钱 放着就放着 涨了不飘 跌了不慌 这行机会多 坑更多 活得久比赚一波重要 别借钱 别上头 别信稳赚 剩下的交给时间#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #微软发布新一代AI芯片，股价触及年内高点 SOL hit a low of 101.56 yesterday, then quickly bounced back to 108, a strong $7 emergency injection. But it still dropped over 4 points in 24 hours, so don’t mistake the rebound for a turnaround. Today, Hong Kong listed Pando’s SOL ETF, while on the other side, the US spot SOL fund saw a net outflow of $24.8 million last week, breaking a 14-week streak of inflows. New products open, old money flows out, showing two faces of the market. The futures contracts don’t give a clear answer either: fees are slightly negative, but open interest actually increased by about 1%. Some are still entering the market, but just looking at open interest doesn’t reveal bullish or bearish sentiment. 101.56 was the recent low, and around 113 is resistance above. Let’s first see if this bounce is supported by spot volume. For those trading SOL contracts, do you trust the new Hong Kong ETF more, or the US capital retreat? $SOL $DOGE DUMPED TO 0.08005, THEN SNAPPED BACK HARD. I watched the 1h candles bleed from 0.08813, then a long wick tagged the low. Four green candles later, price sits at 0.08473, up 3.04% today. Sharp reversals test patience more than entries do. Did you wait for confirmation or chase the bounce? $DOGE$ETH 以太坊从2779回落近15%，中期趋势已转变，现在2514是微妙平衡期。上涨面临巨大抛压，没明确大阳线突破关键压力前，所有上涨都是反弹 技术面看，处于2小时下降通道，受EMA7压制；MACD有底背离雏形，空头力量或枯竭 布林带中轨2525是强阻力，在中轨下就是空头掌控区；2500是心理支撑，跌破直奔2450 操作上： 等反弹至2530-2540出现看跌形态再空，止损2565，目标2460 或回踩2460-2470不破且MACD金叉再多，止损2435 更稳的是等突破站稳2550回踩确认后再多，胜率高！#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ ETFs are selling, whales are buying, who is this BTC drama for? BTC performed a "V-shaped reversal" today. It briefly dropped below $81,500 this morning (down about 3.4% in 24 hours), now back near $83,500. ETH also recovered from below $2,425 to around $2,517. The entire network saw $770 million liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions. But the data hides a divergence: US spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of $681 million last week, the largest weekly outflow since June; on the other hand, on-chain whales increased their BTC holdings by about 15,000 BTC in 72 hours. Institutions are redeeming, whales are accumulating — bulls and bears are directly clashing. Tomorrow the US CPI will be released, the next catalyst. ETF money is running out, whale money is coming in. Do you think this rebound is a real stabilization or just a breather after a drop? Risk warning: Macro data can fluctuate greatly before and after release, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice. #Bitcoin$BREV Last night I was still calculating if this month's instant noodle money would be enough, and this morning I was already thinking about whether to add sausage. Thanks to the market for the meal with this short position. When the market was just smashed in the early session, BREV rebounded near 0.09052, but the volume didn't keep up, and the resistance above was obvious, with a strong bait to the long side. I judged it was just a breather, not a reversal, and at that time I advised to be bearish and enter short positions in batches. Then it continued to go down, the price hit 0.08387, the short position yield was +146.7%, the wait was worth it. When the rhythm is right, profits speak for themselves; the earlier hesitation turned out to be really rewarding. Take profit on 80% of the main position first, move the protection to the cost price for the remaining 20%, let the profits run if it continues to drop, and don't give back gains on the rebound. Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Have a strategy before the market, discipline during the market, and reflection after the market. For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing shorts easily gets caught by rebounds. Wait for the next signal before moving, I will notify immediately. $ETH $LAB South Korea Takes Action: 27 Exchange Websites Directly Blocked, Including KuCoin and MEXC This time, South Korea is serious. The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) announced today that after two rounds of review by the Korea Communications Standards Commission on October 6 and 7, it decided to block domestic access to the websites of 27 unregistered virtual asset operators. KuCoin, MEXC, Phemex, Bitrue, CoinW, and BingX are all on the list. There are two key details: first, previously only apps were blocked (banned from installation and updates in app stores), but this time entire websites are blocked—servers located in Korea are shut down, and overseas servers are cut off from access; second, there is no need to wait for victims—once confirmed as unregistered operators, the block is immediate. The FIU also found that these platforms charge average fees ranging from 1.5% to 10%, up to 62 times higher than the top five domestic Korean exchanges (0.16%). The FIU also admits that blocking the websites may affect existing users’ withdrawals, and will coordinate withdrawal channels through DAXA. Friends using these platforms in Korea should withdraw their coins first. Risk Warning: Regulatory policies change rapidly; please refer to official announcements. For reference only, not investment advice. #BitcoinI've been paying close attention to ZEC recently and want to share my thoughts. $ZEC's current market movement is actually quite interesting. Most altcoins are now focusing on ecosystems, AI, and RWA, but ZEC is taking a different path—privacy. Privacy itself isn't a new narrative; Zcash started working on zero-knowledge proofs quite early. The issue was that the market wasn't willing to pay a high premium for privacy in the past, but this expectation is now changing. However, narratives aside, price still needs to reflect on the charts. ZEC rose too quickly earlier, so the recent pullback from the highs is not surprising. The profits accumulated from the continuous rise need to be digested, and it's not easy to directly start a second major upward wave in the short term. Next, I’m mainly watching a few key levels. On the downside, watch 1110–1130 first; if this area holds, there’s still a chance to retest 1200 upwards. On the upside, 1220 is the first resistance level; to truly regain strength, it needs to break through 1300. If 1110 fails to hold, be prepared for a further pullback to 1050 or even 1000. Now, about the fundamentals. What attracts me most about ZEC is its relatively simple value logic. As more financial activities move on-chain, is transaction transparency really what everyone wants? #ZEC #Zcash#strategy increased holdings by 250 BTC [Old Chive Observation] Strategy only bought 250 $BTC in a week, has the coin hoarding rhythm changed? Strategy's latest disclosure shows that from October 5 to 11, it purchased 250 BTC, spending about $21.5 million, with an average cost of approximately $86,194. Including this purchase, the company now holds 848,250 BTC. Looking solely at holdings, Strategy remains a major player in the Bitcoin market. But if you look at the week's capital movements together, the picture looks a bit different: it also repurchased about $192.4 million worth of STRC preferred shares during the same period, nearly 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. Previously, everyone focused on how much BTC Strategy bought and whether it would continue to increase its position. Now, besides the amount of coins bought, attention must also be paid to how it allocates funds and arranges financing tools. Of course, buying less in a week doesn't mean it is bearish on Bitcoin, nor can it be used to judge a shift in long-term strategy. It's just that this increase in holdings is indeed small, and the market doesn't need to equate "continuing to buy coins" directly with "strongly bullish." For BTC, Strategy's continued large holdings provide a long-term support narrative; but short-term market trends ultimately depend on real buying demand and market liquidity, and cannot be judged solely by a holding announcement. $BTC A while ago, an old classmate pulled me into a group chat He posts his trades every day I watched so much that my hands got itchy Threw in a few hundred bucks The first buy was $BTC After buying, it just slowly dropped It dropped so much I started picking cheaper takeout Later I tried $ETH There are many things on the chain But the fees are brutal One transaction takes forever and feels wasted Then I heard $SOL is fast Transferred a little money to try It’s really fast But also really risky Some projects disappear just like that Lost a few times before I got serious Don’t chase hot trends Don’t follow trade calls Don’t touch what I don’t understand Write down your private keys yourself Don’t give them to anyone who asks Don’t click on unknown links No matter how tempting airdrops are, don’t connect your wallet recklessly Now I only hold money I won’t mind losing Just let it be Don’t get cocky when it rises Don’t panic when it falls There are many opportunities in this field But even more traps Surviving longer is more important than making a quick profit Don’t borrow money Don’t get greedy Don’t believe in guaranteed profits Leave the rest to time#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? #Microsoft releases next-gen AI chip, stock hits yearly high Money is moving, price hasn't crashed: Who is holding firm above 80000? Since October, ETF outflows have exceeded $1 billion: BTC $679 million, ETH $542 million, with ETH also recording the largest single-week outflow since January and nine consecutive trading days of continuous outflows. Interestingly, the coin price only slid from 84000 to 81500. Despite significant selling pressure, it hasn't crashed—indicating someone is absorbing it. BTC market dominance rose to 59.35%, money is concentrating into Bitcoin, and on-exchange funds are still holding firm. Don't be fooled by the "no crash." Spot participation is very thin, put options are being aggressively bought, and below 80000 there is a cluster of liquidation points. To translate: the bulls are holding firm above 80000 with thin buy orders, and below that is basically empty air. There is another key level: 83000. This is the average cost line for ETFs and the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it can't hold, holders start to see unrealized losses, and redemptions will only increase—outflows, price drops, more outflows. The worst scenario in this cycle is breaking below the cost line. ETH is even worse: nine consecutive outflows, intraday low at 2409, just shy of the previous low. Institutions are much more determined to withdraw ETH than BTC. In terms of strategy: treat any rebound as just a rebound for now; wait for ETFs to turn positive and for 83000 to hold with volume before making moves. Before tomorrow night's CPI release, those rushing in are just catching knives. Do you think ETFs can turn positive this week? #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? 狗狗币装了个新发动机，老司机讲讲 这两天最让我精神的一条消息：有家叫Metallicus的公司，在主网上线了DogecoinVM的测试版，让狗狗币的交易速度快了约300倍。 听不懂？ 我用笨办法讲。原来的狗狗币转账像老式收银台，一笔一笔排队结账，安全，但慢。新方案等于在旁边加盖一排自助结账机，原来的收银台一颗螺丝不动。它不改狗狗币底层，只在外面包一层并行网络：快的管速度，老的管安全。 对方CEO还放了句话，说这是兑现马斯克当年对狗狗币做支付的设想。这话我爱听。2019年我第一次用$DOGE 转账，是给国外论坛一个网友付几美分打赏，到账等了快十分钟。那会儿我就想，这东西再快一点，真能当钱花。 现在这个"再快一点"，有人动手做了。成不成另说，方向是我等了七年的方向。 老粉的快乐就这么朴素：行情可以放一边，"能花"这两个字，值钱。$BTC BTC quickly recovered after the drop, with the 4-hour chart completing two bottom tests, which is a relatively positive signal: it did not break the previous low; even if it later tries to break below the previous low, it will form a 4-hour bullish divergence structure. However, on the long-term rhythm, the 3-day MACD has already formed a death cross, so at this stage, avoid chasing highs. The current strategy is that shorting on rallies offers better cost-effectiveness. Once the trend turns, it will not reverse easily. The current market long-short ratio has reached 1.6, with bottom-fishing funds crowding in; even if the market temporarily stabilizes, it is highly likely to continue oscillating with repeated bottom tests. Today's trading plan: Short positions can be set up in the 83500–84000 range Stop loss: 84500 Target: 80800 Position size 5.5, leverage 10x On the macro level: September CPI data is about to be released, and Harker has stated there is still room for further rate hikes; BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue to see capital outflows, with institutional buying demand clearly weakening. The market has repeatedly tested support, showing weakness; do not be fooled by quick spike rebounds.It's still the same old talk about near. Over the weekend, taking advantage of low liquidity, it exploded upward to a new high of 6, closing at 15k with an upper shadow. Afterwards, due to the overall weakness of the market, it dropped from 6 all the way down below 4.9 this morning. Bulls and bears diverged at the integer level of 6. Also, the funding rate for the bulls in this coin is at most 0.01, but the bears don't have this cap, right? Isn't that cheap? I've never seen the bulls' funding rate exceed 0.01. The long-short ratio went from less than one to greater than one. Are you telling me there are more shorts? Could it be that the long-short ratio is distorted? I saw this issue in a post last time. Additionally, continue raising interest rates, explode this coin $NEAR, and Chuanzi quickly deploy ground forces to cripple Iran so badly that it won't come out to talk for decades. This is the best.$ETH Today's Market Analysis!!! Good morning, friends! Did you catch that short position last night? Reviewing yesterday, ETH rebounded from a low point all the way up to around 2578, then started a continuous pullback. Sister Qin had already advised everyone to watch for shorting opportunities at the high levels, targeting the 2530–2500 range. After the US market opened, the rebound remained weak, and the price smoothly reached the target zone! Unexpectedly, there was another dip around midnight, hitting a low near 2405, catching many long position followers off guard. However, strong buying support appeared near 2405. After the Asian session opened this morning, the market quickly rebounded, rising over 100 points in a short time. On-chain funds also continued to flow in, indicating that there is still capital paying attention at the low levels. What’s next? Sister Qin believes that although the short-term rebound is obvious, it’s still too early to chase longs! Focus on the resistance near 2530 above and observe whether the price can effectively hold above it. If there is a volume breakout and the price holds steady, the rebound has a chance to continue. But if the price fails to rally and faces pressure again, be cautious of a potential pullback risk. $ZEC #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed Brothers, did your heart just drop by half again when you checked the market this morning? 💔$BTC $ETH $BTC directly broke below the $83,000 mark, dipping as low as around $82,900! U.S. Treasury yields are soaring, the macro situation is tense, and retail investors in the market are once again holding their heads and crying out loud, shouting that “the bull’s quick return” is a scam! The big group chat is full of wails, and some have even started preparing to cut losses and place sell orders... 😭📉 But have you seen the truth behind it?! 💥 On-chain data is so hardcore it’s shocking: the on-chain holdings of the U.S. spot BTC ETF have officially surpassed 2 million coins (over 10% of the global total supply)! Wall Street institutions and giants are still crazily accumulating, and even if the market pulls back in a single week, buying pressure remains strong! Wall Street is using macro sentiment to hammer the price down and accumulate, while retail investors are cutting losses and shooting themselves in the foot! Is this a bear trap to shake out weak hands, or the final warning to exit?$ZEC ZEC/USDT perpetual 30-minute chart, bearish pattern, bearish sentiment but no shorting due to unclear overall market conditions. My view: The market initially surged then pulled back, probing down to a low of 1112.06. Currently, it is a minor recovery rebound after a sharp drop, with the overall major trend still weak. Wait for the price to rebound to the 1230 resistance level before attempting to short. The first target is the 1180 support, with a stop loss set above 1245. If this level is broken, the bearish outlook should be paused. Chan theory structure: The downtrend started from the high of 1383.76, forming a purple downward continuation zone midway. After hitting the low of 1112.06, a rebound occurred forming the second purple zone shown in the chart; then the price broke down again to a new low. The current rise is just a pullback after the breakdown and does not reverse the main 30-minute downtrend structure. Wyckoff volume-price observation: The main down phase showed volume expansion on the way down, but this rebound’s volume has clearly shrunk. The buying support is insufficient, and funds have not continuously entered to bottom fish. This is a weak rebound after a decline, with weak bullish attack strength. Key observation: Focus closely on the 1230 resistance level. If the rebound stalls here with volume contraction, it is a shorting opportunity; if volume expands and price holds above 1245, it indicates short-term bullish strength and bearish views should be reconsidered.