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Gold once again followed my early session analysis, smoothly breaking below the 38.2 Fibonacci level (4060), reaching near the 50 Fibonacci level (4033), and finally, as I said, stabilizing and rising to around 4070. Congratulations to the friends who followed the reference for making a profit!#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
I think it's a bit risky now to still use the past four-year cycle to predict when BTC will peak or bottom out.
In the past, studying the BTC cycle, the halving was indeed a very important reference. The 2017 and 2021 bull markets had similar rhythms, followed by a deep retracement of over 70%.
But the problem is, the market participants have changed.
Previously, it was mainly retail investors, miners, and crypto-native funds playing; now there are spot ETFs, institutional funds, and macro interest rates and dollar liquidity have a more direct impact on BTC.
This means that the supply changes brought by halving still exist, but they may no longer dominate the entire market as before.
ETH is even more complicated. With L2 offloading, staking, changes in token economic models, plus competition from other public chains, today's ETH and 2021's ETH are no longer the same market structure.
So if I have to choose between time progress and retracement depth, I pay more attention to retracement depth, but I don't just look at how much it has fallen.
For example, if BTC falls 30% from its high, if leverage has clearly been cleared and long-term funds are still continuously absorbing, that's completely different from funds continuously flowing out and it just temporarily falling 30%.
I think what is truly worth being cautious about is not that the cycle model suddenly fails, but that it is slowly failing while we are still using the old timetable waiting for a definite bottom. I saw this message and first thought of the worst-case scenario: if tax incentive expectations are taken as a signal for immediate capital inflow, positions might be enlarged before the rules are finalized, and the drawdown would have to be borne personally. Having done risk control for a long time, I care more about how much can be lost if expectations are not met.
Hong Kong's Deputy Director of the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau, Chan Ho-lam, stated that the scope of tax incentives for funds and single-family offices will be expanded, with digital assets, precious metals, and others proposed to be included as eligible investments; after the relevant amendment bill is passed, the measures can be implemented starting from the 2025/26 tax year. I judge this as a positive signal at the institutional level, not proof of short-term capital inflows.
⚠️ I am watching three risks: the bill is pending approval, and implementation still has conditions; the scope of eligibility determines who truly benefits and cannot be directly applied to all assets; a reduction in tax burden does not mean institutions will immediately allocate, as sentiment may run ahead of capital.
Ordinary people might as well first write down the maximum account loss they can bear per trade before looking at the news. When facing such policy expectations, how much stop loss do you generally set for a single trade?Here are 8 revised versions for you:
*Version 1 - Original Optimized*
> Previous low support broken, limited upside for recovery rally
>
> The earlier rebound around 990 after bottoming out was just a brief correction following an oversell. This support level has now been breached, and the market has entered a new round of decline, hitting a low near 794. Currently, it is only a slight rebound at a low level.
>
> The HBM sector remains hot, but expectations for flash memory price increases have weakened. Supply pressure from large manufacturers' capacity expansions persists. U.S. Treasury yields continue to cause disturbances, making it difficult for market risk appetite to rise. This rebound has seen no volume increase and no new capital entering to support it.
>
> Previous support has turned into resistance. A low-level rebound does not indicate a trend reversal. The bearish supply-side logic remains intact. Short-term outlook.
*Version 2 - Minimalist*
> Previous low support broken, limited upside for recovery rally. The earlier rebound around 990 after bottoming out was just a brief correction following an oversell. This support level has now been breached. The market has entered a new round of decline, hitting a low near 794. Currently, it is only a slight rebound at a low level. The HBM sector remains hot, but expectations for flash memory price increases have weakened. Supply pressure from large manufacturers' capacity expansions persists. U.S. Treasury yields continue to cause disturbances, making it difficult for market risk appetite to rise. This rebound has seen no volume increase and no new capital entering to support it. Previous support has turned into resistance. A low-level rebound does not indicate a trend reversal. The bearish supply-side logic remains intact. Short-term outlook.
*Version 3 - Trader's Version*
> Previous low support broken, limited upside for recovery rally
> The earlier rebound around 990 after bottoming out was just a brief correction following an oversell. This sup"BTC, ETH, SOL: The rebound is here, is the altcoin season still far off?"
Recently, with the market rebounding, the group chat has started shouting about a quick bull return. But after experiencing continuous pullbacks, I’m now more concerned about one question: Is capital flowing back into the entire crypto space, or is it concentrated only in a few leading coins?
First, let’s look at BTC. Bitcoin’s core value remains its scarce supply and decentralized settlement. In the short term, observe spot buying, ETF net flows, and breakthroughs of previous highs. If the price rises without matching volume, be wary of another drop after short sellers cover their positions. Macro interest rates and a stronger dollar could also suppress the rebound.
Next, ETH. On November 3, the Ethereum Foundation released a research article on digital public infrastructure, emphasizing the potential use of open networks in public services. This is a research direction, not new institutional orders. Going forward, watch stablecoin settlements, on-chain fees, and upgrade testing progress. The risk is that application growth may not directly translate into ETH demand.
Finally, SOL. On November 5, Solana officially confirmed that eligible U.S. Galaxy users can now use USDC on the Solana chain through Samsung Wallet. The payment entry has indeed expanded, but this doesn’t mean users will immediately migrate en masse. Key indicators to watch are active payment addresses, real transfers, and fees, while being cautious of fading hype.
My judgment is: BTC determines market direction, ETH validates long-term applications, and SOL competes for new users. A true altcoin season requires sustained capital diffusion beyond these three.
Who do you think will lead the next rally?The decline in US tech stocks has transmitted to the crypto market, with a clear contraction in risk appetite.After reading, I noted three things:
1. I focused on the sale of 1 million $UNI within two days, which directly impacts short-term supply, but I won't take it as evidence of the protocol's fundamentals worsening. According to Lookonchain monitoring, this address received tokens from the Uniswap UNI Timelock wallet a year ago.
2. The wallet source helps track token holdings but doesn't directly explain the selling motive, nor can it be used to conclude that the team is bearish; I think this news affects short-term sentiment more than it explains the protocol's value. Mixing these up can easily scare yourself.
3. If this address continues selling, I will pay more attention to whether the selling persists and whether the market can absorb it. This is my observation approach, not a concluded outcome. A note to myself: track fund behavior, don't assign psychological motives to whales.The Nasdaq's sharp drop this time essentially treated crypto as high-beta tech stocks and liquidated them together.
Funds first withdrew from AI-related tech stocks; as risk budgets tightened, crypto was conveniently sold off. BTC was hammered from around 80,000 down to the 75,000 level, ETH fell even harder, directly approaching 2200. On the surface, it looks like a follow-down, but in reality, leveraged long positions were concentratedly liquidated, with over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, almost all longs.
This time is different from a simple news-driven drop. It’s compounded by hedge funds deleveraging, representing passive selling pressure. Prices collapsed first, narratives followed. Crypto has no fundamental negative news of its own, but when liquidity is drained, it is often more fragile than tech stocks.
In the short term, whether BTC can hold around 74,800 will determine if sentiment continues to worsen. Holding that level offers a chance to rebound; breaking below opens more downside. The market is still digesting Wall Street’s position clearing, and crypto is just being swept along.
Once the Nasdaq stops falling and the VIX retreats, crypto will truly have a chance to catch its breath. #USStocksSufferHeavySelloff: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posts largest single-day drop since March 2020 $BTC #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Oklo aims to launch the first Aurora sodium-cooled fast reactor power project between the end of 2027 and 2028. The test reactor has achieved criticality, DOE site permits and fuel support are underway, and orders are tied to data centers, aligning the narrative with zero-carbon computing power demand. However, the biggest bottleneck lies in the NRC's official commercial license. Sodium-cooled reactors inherently have leakage safety risks, HALEU fuel costs are relatively high, and financing consumes significant resources. $SNDK What's going on?
After breaking below the strong support at 970 from the end of July, it just kept falling nonstop,
last night it dropped sharply to a low of 793 before briefly stopping the decline.
SanDisk went from 1908 -> 793, Micron $MU from 1100 -> 650, SK Hynix $SKHYNIX from 1400 -> 809,
this round saw the three storage giants collectively halved, nearly a 50% cyclical sell-off, leaving the stubborn bulls who held onto hope barely alive.
Many big funds on the profit leaderboard have been continuously long on SanDisk, going from tens of thousands of dollars in profit to tens of thousands in losses, giving back all their previous gains, it's truly brutal!
The long-short ratio has dropped from a high of 9.73 to 5.5, the majority of bulls have surrendered, only a few stubborn ones remain.
It's always long, always tears!
Uncertainty from new AI policies and tech funds rushing to exit caused this big drop in US stocks.
From the US stock pricing framework, SanDisk at over 800 has already reached the institutional pessimistic valuation range.
But a fair valuation doesn't mean the market will immediately stop falling; non-farm payroll data is still to be released tonight.
No matter how fierce the bears are, there will always be a moment of exhaustion.
At this point, should you bottom-fish directly or wait for a right-side stabilization confirmation signal?
Referencing the big rebound in early August, when the bulls counterattack, the rebound can be very strong,
so what would you choose?[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Brothers and sisters, the palace intrigue drama has started again in Washington! The old and new US Congress are undergoing a handover, and Pharaoh shakes his head while holding coffee: these people are very likely to exploit the US-Iran situation to grab power.
This causal chain is very exciting: old and new Congress handover ➡️ power vacuum period, for votes and party struggles, the new Congress might cut off war funding, or the old Congress might apply extreme pressure before leaving ➡️ Middle East situation expected to be extremely volatile ➡️ oil prices jump up and down ➡️ if the situation eases, oil prices continue to fall, inflation drops, and Pharaoh is delighted (good for risk assets); if the situation gets out of control, oil prices soar, and Pharaoh can only grit his teeth and continue hawkish policies, with BTC getting drained along with US stocks.
Now look at your situation: US stocks were just bloodied last night, and tonight there's the "nuclear bomb" of the non-farm payrolls, macro uncertainty is everywhere.
If BTC pulls back to the 75000/74000 range, I think it's a very good bottom-fishing zone, nephew 500, close friend 1000/2000 points, very exciting! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Oklo aims to launch its first Aurora sodium-cooled fast reactor power project between the end of 2027 and 2028. The test reactor has already achieved criticality, DOE site permits have been obtained, and fuel support is progressing. Orders are tied to data centers, aligning the narrative with zero-carbon computing power demand. However, the biggest bottleneck lies in the NRC's official commercial license. Sodium-cooled reactors inherently have leakage safety risks, HALEU fuel costs are relatively high, and financing consumes significant resources. Optimistically, a demonstration unit could be operational by 2028; large-scale commercialization will likely be delayed until after 2030. Successful demonstration does not equate to low-cost scalable replication; regulation and economics remain the two major variables.🔥Bitcoin's pennant pattern has broken below 76,000 again, testing the critical support level at 75,000
Bitcoin $BTC is currently around 75,700
Yesterday's news mainly triggered by the Democratic Party preparing to restrict AI data center construction caused a sharp drop in storage sector US stocks like MU, SNDK, dragging down the overall US market and pushing the crypto market to crash accordingly
Currently, Bitcoin is showing a downward pennant pattern again, returning to the lower boundary of the continuation flag structure
The 78,600-78,800 range should be considered an important bullish defense line; if broken, the bullish trend will reverse again. So partners who see this should exit in time, minimizing bullish losses. If it breaks below 78,600, going short with the trend will also be very profitable
The 75,000 level is the nearest support now; if it breaks again, we should look at the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level below, near the green trendline, roughly in the 72,100-72,600 range
Therefore, in terms of operation: the bullish defense is to exit if it breaks below 75,000, for example, setting a stop loss exit at 74,700 (to prevent fakeouts). If it breaks effectively, I will choose to short with the trend on the right side down to the 72,100-72,600 range and then reassessAs of the end of September, the physical gold backing XAUT was about 827,400 troy ounces, equivalent to 25.7 tons. At the end of last year, it was about 16.2 tons, an increase of 59%. This increase refers to the physical quantity of gold, with the starting point of the statistics being the end of last year. Each XAUT still corresponds to one troy ounce of gold.
This makes me think of a question that is easy to skip before buying: when can the gold on the screen be exchanged for money at the price you expect? The physical reserves answer how much gold is behind it, and the trading depth determines how much you can sell at. When the market is stable, these two things seem very close. When there is a sharp drop, large sales, or fewer trading channels, the quoted price and the actual transaction price may diverge. If you want to redeem the physical gold directly, you also need to look at the issuer's conditions.
I am quite happy to see gold circulate on-chain in smaller fractions. It makes some transfers that were originally very troublesome more convenient, but "convenient transfer" and "convenient cash-out" each have their own conditions. Seeing the reserve growth, I would first look at the disclosure criteria, then look at the usual price spreads and exit channels. When you really need to sell urgently, the string of gold ounces in your account ultimately has to be calculated at the price that can be transacted.
#Tether旗下XAUT黄金储备增长59% Both Bitcoin and ETH have dropped, but the logic is not exactly the same: one looks at the macro situation, while the other also considers ETF outflows.Cryptocurrency Market Plummets: Bitcoin Falls Below $76,000, Over $1.2 Billion Liquidated in 24 Hours
Amid a sharp decline in U.S. stocks, the cryptocurrency market also dropped, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $76,000.
On November 6, Bitcoin continued its downward trend from the previous trading day. OKX data showed Bitcoin (BTC) once dropped to around $75,200, after rebounding above $80,000 the day before; Ethereum (ETH) fell to about $2,206, with a 24-hour decline exceeding 7%, and major cryptocurrencies like SOL also generally declined.
The significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market triggered concentrated liquidations. According to crypto data platform CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours, a total of 238,600 people were liquidated globally, with total liquidations amounting to approximately $1.254 billion, including $1.11 billion in long position liquidations and $140 million in short position liquidations.
This cryptocurrency market downturn coincided with a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks. On November 5 local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively plunged: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.44%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 5.52%.
The Democratic Party's significant victory in the U.S. midterm elections sparked market concerns about potential increased AI regulation and restrictions on data center construction in the U.S. Coupled with prior investor doubts about massive capital expenditures and investment return prospects in the AI sector, leveraged long position liquidations further intensified market volatility.
$BTC $ETH $PUMP
$PUMP
The trend of Meme coin trading platforms shifting to perpetual contract business is accelerating.
On Thursday, the daily active traders of perpetual contracts on FOMO and Pump.fun both saw significant growth. Among them, FOMO's daily active traders for perpetual contracts approached 4,000, with a single-day trading volume of $334 million; Pump.fun's daily active traders for perpetual contracts approached 1,200, reaching a record high, with a single-day trading volume of $25.3 million.$SNDK $MU
Retail investors really buy more as prices fall
I'm increasingly understanding why most people lose money
The more it falls, the more they bottom-fish; the more it falls, the more they hold their positions. In a one-sided downtrend, those going long outnumber shorts by several times. If the market doesn't harvest you, who else will it harvest? If Bitcoin continues to drop with increased volume, liquidity below 75,000 may be further tested.Hold off on rushing the pace for now. I'm more worried that the rebound might give a false impression.
CryptoQuant analyst Adler noted that the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.36%, and the VIX rose from 16.6 to 28.2. I judge the short-term outlook as bearish: if the stock market continues to sell off and funds reduce positions to control risk, $BTC could also be passively pressured.
I'll first watch if the US stock market can stop falling, then wait for crypto to pull back for confirmation; if after entering the market the correlation weakens, I'll exit as planned. In this kind of cross-market shock, would you wait for volatility to subside or act on a sharp dip rebound?$xSPCX rocket plummeted 9% in a single day! Musk concept stocks suffered a heavy blow, shorts charging forward!!!
From the news perspective, the US midterm election results have intensified market concerns about rocket politics and regulatory risks. With the Democrats controlling Congress, the market fears that AI data center expansion approvals will be hindered. Meanwhile, the rocket's approximately $40 billion AI equipment financing plan has also sparked discussions about funding pressure. From a technical perspective, the rocket's latest close was $123.62, down 9.05% in one day, with a trading volume of about 172 million shares, significantly amplified. Around 120 is an important short-term support, while 131–136 forms the upper rebound resistance. If the rebound cannot firmly hold above 131, weakness may continue; if it effectively breaks below 120, it will further decline. The stock lacks on-chain capital data, so focus is on trading volume and institutional movements. Volume-driven decline indicates obvious selling pressure. Let's also look at macro factors. The Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors fell sharply together, as the market is shrinking risk exposure to AI overvalued assets. Interest rates, data center policies, and financing costs may continue to affect SPCX valuation!
Short selling plan:
Rebound short: If resistance is met in the 131–136 range and weakening signals appear, consider gradually building short positions.
Stop loss: Above 140
Targets: 123, 120
Breakdown short: If it effectively breaks below 120 and the rebound fails to recover, consider following the trend to short.
Targets: 115, 110
$BTC #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $LAB Staring at this market, I really took a sharp breath! From 0.04043, it shot up in a deep V shape, violently surging over 11%, instantly breaking through the resistance of the moving averages above. Watching this bright red surge is indeed exciting, but looking at the data below, I instantly sobered up.
The long position ratio has actually soared to a terrifying 82%+, with a long-short ratio as high as 4.66! This indicates that retail investors are all crazily FOMO chasing the highs, while the tiny remaining short positions have long been blown out by this surge, leaving nothing behind. The current market is extremely crowded with longs, and short fuel is nearly exhausted. Although the short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross and momentum is off the charts, this is very likely a high-level bull trap set by the main force to attract trend followers.
Chasing longs at this position has a shockingly low margin of safety and a terrible risk-reward ratio; it’s basically taking the bag and heading for disaster. I absolutely won’t join this hype and will patiently wait for this wave of sentiment to subside. As long as there is volume expansion with stagnation at the high level, the opportunity to short on the right side with the trend will come.
When others are fearful, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I am fearful. A whale sold 1 million $UNI in the past two days (worth $7.32 million).
This whale received 20.32 million $UNI from the Uniswap UNI Timelock wallet a year ago (worth $139.4 million).
Address: 0xFfBeaE414F6f3146E52f18d17ff7894086BE1Ca3
Address: 0xAdCBF72CFd3667d858202a66ba29Ada9C2CdeC86
Address: 0x5069A64BC6616dEC1584eE0500B7813A9B680F7EETH dropped to around 2200, and on-chain activity is also not lively, with insufficient short-term catalysts.How to determine if the market environment has changed? Which signals are worth paying attention to, and which are just short-term noise?
In the previous article, we discussed a question: why might a once effective trading strategy gradually lose its edge?
One important reason is that the market environment has changed.
But the real difficulty lies in this: the market fluctuates every day, so how do we know if this is normal volatility or if the market condition has truly shifted?
If the reaction is too slow, one might continue using strategies that no longer fit the current market.
If the reaction is too quick, one might prematurely change the original trading plan due to a few abnormal candlesticks, a sudden surge in volume, or a brief price breakout.
Therefore, judging the market environment should not rely solely on price movements but should comprehensively observe price structure, trading volume, volatility, market depth, and capital behavior.11.6 Nonfarm Payroll Data and Gold Market Analysis
I. Fundamental Logic
Gold prices were clearly suppressed by high interest rates in September and October. The recent rebound in gold is not driven by risk-off sentiment but is the result of the combined effects of a weaker dollar, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and falling oil prices. Meanwhile, the nonfarm payroll data is a key watershed determining the subsequent gold trend.
II. Personal Forecast
October's new nonfarm payrolls are expected to be in the range of 60,000 to 75,000, with the unemployment rate likely to remain at 4.2%, and month-on-month wage growth between 0.2% and 0.3%, showing an overall pattern of "moderate expansion plus wage growth." This will slightly reduce the probability of a rate hike in December but will not completely eliminate the possibility.
III. Notes
1. Do not overly rely on a single nonfarm payroll data point; subsequent market direction should also consider inflation data such as CPI and PCE.
2. The gold market has liquidity sell-off traps; even if the data is positive, prices will not immediately rise.
3. Gold will fluctuate in the short term between 4120 and 4150; attention should be paid to breakthroughs at key levels such as 4170 and 4230.
The above content is only a discussion of macro logic and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $XAU $BTC Last night the crypto market crashed so hard, many people only saw the AI regulation panic including Lu Jie. After looking up some information, Lu Jie found a factor that is easily overlooked.
That is, the day after the Democrats took control of Congress, a company affiliated with Trump transferred $343 million worth of BTC (30% of its total holdings) to an exchange. These coins were originally used for transferable collateral. The company also has $1 billion of debt maturing at the end of November. The market's understanding is that the coins are being sold to repay debt. Coupled with policy risk expectations, the panic intensified, driving the market down sharply. Tonight, the main focus is still on the non-farm payroll data. If it meets expectations, there will be a rebound.$UNI According to Lookonchain on November 6, a whale holding a large amount of UNI transferred about 1 million UNI to Binance in the past two days, valued at approximately $7.32 million. It is worth noting that this address received 20.32 million UNI from Uniswap's UNI Timelock wallet more than a year ago, which was worth about $139.4 million at that time. This means the initial token amount obtained by this address was extremely large, and the 1 million transferred this time only accounts for about 4.9% of the original amount, which is not a large proportion. 1. Who is this whale? This fund was not bought on the open market but came from the Uniswap Timelock wallet. The Timelock can be understood as a time-locked wallet for project governance funds, usually used to manage tokens arranged through governance. This implies that the address may be related to early project fund allocation or ecosystem fund arrangements. However, the specific identity cannot be determined solely based on this transfer, nor can it be directly concluded that it represents an official Uniswap sell-off. More importantly, the original holding was as high as 20.32 million UNI, so if this whale continues to take action later, the selling pressure will be very significant. 2. Are other whales buying or selling? From the overall data, there is currently no obvious sign of collective whale flight from UNI. According to Deep Blue Alpha data as of November 6, in the past 7 days, tracked whales transferred about $22.4 million to exchanges.Trading news-driven markets really feels like battling through levels and monsters 😂
Previously fell into a big trap: didn’t understand conditional orders, stop loss triggered and suddenly an extra position appeared out of nowhere, totally confusing me.
Gradually figured out the trick: the "reduce only" option is a lifesaving little switch.
Reminder to everyone: during big events like Nonfarm Payrolls, sudden spikes happen, and stop losses get triggered on both sides as a regular occurrence.
When placing protective orders, prioritize using the built-in take profit and stop loss of your positions, which have their own closing logic and won’t secretly open reverse positions for surprise attacks.
Markets change in the blink of an eye, and slippage can appear anytime.
Watching the market for fun is fine, but never get carried away with your positions; preserving your principal is the biggest win.
Markets carry risks, trade rationally. Don't think the congressional transition is a peaceful handover; in essence, it's a year-long power vacuum period, and the massacre is just beginning. The old Congress is still in power, and the new Congress won't take over until 2027. During this time, it's a lawless period for policies. Trump could launch a sudden strike in the Middle East at any time, while the Democrats scrutinize the accounts with a magnifying glass. This expectation of division turns the market into a meat grinder.
Look at $BTC, the big coin; the slight dip now is just playing dead. With a macro vacuum, all ETFs are on hold, and no long-term fresh capital is entering. The overhead trapped positions are very heavy. If the non-farm payrolls drop tonight, it will definitely spike crazily above seventy thousand. Holding long-term is fine, but chasing highs in the short term is pure suicide. Shorting in the short term must have a tight stop loss; shorting is shorting—don't hold on to death. Not setting a stop loss is just giving away money.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, it's even worse. With the Democrats controlling both chambers, the Trump-related crypto dividends are lost or even under investigation, and regulatory Damocles' sword hangs overhead. Ethereum has no new narrative, and a regulatory crackdown will cause the fastest drop. Smaller altcoins without support are being sold off heavily; don't try to catch a falling knife.
Look at $XAUT, gold and crude oil, the focus of geopolitical games. Whether there will be conflict in the Middle East depends on politicians' moods, and crude oil won't fall easily. Gold is the real bottom line; no matter how Washington fights internally, safe-haven buying firmly supports it, showing resilience far beyond the crypto world.
Going forward, the macro environment will be a double squeeze of bickering and stubbornness. Control your hands, endure this turmoil, survive, and then pick up chips again. #The transition between the old and new US Congress may affect the US-Iran situation Tonight at 21:30, the non-farm payrolls report is a key short-term catalyst.
The October non-farm payrolls are expected at 65,000, previous value 29,000, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.2%. The data directly impacts the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations.
If non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, rate cut expectations cool down, the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, putting pressure on BTC and ETH, aligning with the current bearish logic.
If the data meets expectations, there will be a brief recovery but it’s unlikely to change the weak trend.
If non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, it will temporarily trigger a rebound in rate cut expectations, but weak employment will raise recession concerns, limiting the rebound space.
Additionally, with the Democrats controlling both chambers, AI and crypto regulation expectations are tightening, so selling pressure remains above.
The market is likely to experience wide fluctuations and is unlikely to see a one-sided rebound. Focus on non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly wages, and the linkage between US Treasuries and the dollar. Wait for the data to be released before taking action; do not bet in advance.
$BTC $ETH
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ #IREN accelerates transformation to AI cloud, business revenue grows 182% quarter-on-quarter $LINK
Macroeconomic volatility can increase the value of oracles, but does it raise the valuation of LINK?
There is a clear event risk tonight with the employment report. When prices fluctuate sharply, reliable data becomes more important; however, there are still different transmission links between service necessity, actual payment, and token demand.
I focus on sustained calls and payment scale. If usage increases but does not strengthen token demand, valuation cannot be mechanically raised; if real revenue and economic rights improve simultaneously, the judgment is more justified.The rollercoaster market just ended, and tonight's non-farm payrolls are about to "stir things up" again?
The market these past two days probably shook many traders dizzy. First came the sudden, unanticipated sharp plunge, followed by a vengeful deep V-shaped rebound. BTC and US tech stocks played out an extreme "rollercoaster". Amid the double-sided liquidation, the sounds of forced liquidations kept rising.
This extreme "big ups and downs" essentially reflect a market sentiment that is highly unstable, with funds undergoing a frantic shakeout. Tonight at 21:30, the US October non-farm payroll data (expected employment increase of 65,000, unemployment rate 4.2%) will be released with heavy impact.
With the data combined with recent intense volatility, tonight's market will definitely be "hellishly difficult." If expectations deviate, it can easily trigger even more extreme spikes. In such a market, never bet on a one-sided surge or plunge at the instant of data release. $BTC $ETH $530 million gone in a flash, the ETF door closes faster than anyone else.
The combined net outflow of the US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on Thursday was about $530 million. Bitcoin fell below $76,000, US stocks declined simultaneously, and the post-election gains were basically wiped out. Source: Cointelegraph.
Bearish judgment: This is a direct signal of institutional funds withdrawing from the ETF channel, not just retail sentiment fluctuations. ETFs have been the main entry point for incremental funds over the past year. Continuous net outflows mean marginal buying disappears, and prices are more easily dominated by selling pressure; Bitcoin falling below $76,000 while dragging down US stocks is a macro-level risk aversion, not unique to the crypto space.
Observation points: In the short term, focus on whether ETF funds can stop the bleeding and whether there is support below $76,000; if outflows continue, high-beta assets like ETH usually fall more sharply. Involving $BTC, $ETH, the overall tone is bearish.
Are you more concerned about ETF funds stopping the bleeding or support below $76,000? According to the data from Lianshang, Big Brother Maji has just been liquidated again. In the past 4 days, he sold off 15 NFTs at a loss, barely raising about $223,000, which is roughly $505,000 less than his purchase cost. He put this money into the contract, but it was quickly wiped out again.
Currently, he has accumulated losses of about $37.4 million on one contract position, and another position has lost about $909,000. His positions are basically still high-leverage long ETH trades. He keeps selling Bored Apes at a loss to top up margin while continuing to open long positions, repeating the same drama over and over.
There are quite a few people like this in the crypto world—when they make money, it’s like they’re cheating; when they lose, it’s the same. Watching them makes your palms sweat.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC Retracement levels are not support levels; they are just the places where the price previously paused.
$BTC dropped from 107,736 to 57,761, and this move was sliced into several segments.
The 61.8% retracement level falls at 76,852.
How this number is calculated:
The difference between the high and low is 49,975, multiplied by 0.618 equals 30,884.
Subtracting this from the high gives 76,852.
The moment it was triggered:
On November 4th, the price reached this level, volume increased, and then it rebounded.
Currently at 80,693, it has moved back above this line.
Common misinterpretations:
The 50% level is at 82,749, about 2.5% away from being reached.
Below that, the 78.6% level is at 68,456, which is the next lower tier.
Retracement levels only indicate where the price has paused; they do not indicate that buyers stepped in at those levels.
A rebound accompanied by volume increase is what truly shows that real money has accepted that price.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC $SOL — SHORT
entry: 89.61
tp1: 87.20
tp2: 84.50
stop: 93.20
$SOL has struggled to recover after its latest decline. The repeated inability to reclaim 90 keeps the downside scenario relevant.Continuing from the previous article, after this epic deep leverage cleanup, which coins are good for bottom fishing?
$UNI This round of decline was dragged down by macro sentiment, not due to any fundamental issues with the DEX; UNI has already started fee buyback and burn, supported by real cash flow, and is a DeFi leader. After the market stabilizes, it has great rebound potential. Current price is $7 for long, target seen at $7.143.
$KORU (3x long on South Korea KOSPI) The big drop was also caused by panic over AI regulation expectations, a short-term emotional overreaction. The core of the Korean stock market is storage chips, and the industry fundamentals remain intact. South Korea has expected bottom support policies, so you can try for a recovery rally. Current price is $7 for long, target also at $7.70.
$QQQ (Nasdaq 100) The sell-off was a valuation correction due to AI regulation concerns. The leading tech companies in Nasdaq have solid earnings; it is a broad tech index, more stable than altcoins, suitable for betting on emotional recovery. Current price is 655.80 for long, target seen at 668.85.
#US stocks face heavy sell-off: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index records largest single-day drop since March 2020 Just finished my current work, I only glanced at the overall market data and found that borrowing BTC for a year costs only 0.50%, while borrowing ZEC costs 14.27%, nearly 29 times the difference. Those who want to short ZEC haven't even started because the interest rate blocks them first. Who dares to short ZEC at this rate?
I’m not watching the K-line; I’m watching the borrowing rates: ETH is at 2.75%, SOL at 5.49%, gradually climbing step by step, and then ZEC doubles straight upMany people tend to see the decline in mining revenue as negative news, but I want to change the perspective first. On the contrary, does less mining necessarily mean worse operations?
IREN's mining revenue dropped by 58%, AI sales reached $200 million, and they plan to basically complete the mining business transformation by December. I think the decline alone shouldn't be judged as negative: the contraction of the old business aligns with the transformation direction; the AI annualized revenue target has been postponed to early 2027, so execution risk is what really needs attention.
At what level of mining revenue decline do you think it becomes dangerous rather than a normal exit? I welcome those with opposing views to debate.$AKE Today's surge is really a bit outrageous, pulling up from the pit to nearly double. Checked around and found no solid positive news, and the project side hasn't released anything new either. Feels like the contract shorts got squeezed; it dropped too hard before, so many were shorting, and once it pulled up, it triggered liquidations and short covering, causing a cascade. Data shows open interest dropping while price is rising, a classic short squeeze. There's also a trading competition running on OKX, which might have added some heat. But this small coin really has huge volatility, and unlocks are still ahead. Brothers chasing highs, be careful not to get hit back the other way.Bitcoin's return to $80,000 only lasted a short time before falling back to the $75,000 to $76,000 range. CryptoQuant attributes the decline to external factors: the sell-off of U.S. tech stocks and AI concept stocks dragged down risk appetite in the crypto market.
More notably, there is internal market divergence. Futures positions have improved, and leverage pressure is easing; however, spot buying has yet to recover. The derivatives structure is becoming healthier, but real demand is absent—this divergence means the price lacks fuel to push upward.
On-chain data is more subtle. On November 5, about 11,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges, and the 60-day net increase indicator for wallets holding over 10,000 BTC turned positive, signaling whale accumulation. But the scale of retail BTC inflows to Binance is increasing, and short-term holders face selling pressure. Big money is slowly accumulating, while small money is moving to exchanges—opposite directions.
There are two more drags on liquidity: weak capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and lackluster stablecoin liquidity. The former reflects institutional incremental funds on the sidelines, and the latter indicates insufficient ammunition across the market.
Overall, for $BTC to sustain a rebound, new spot buying must enter. Watch two things going forward: whether the $73,000 to $76,000 support holds, and whether spot demand and ETF capital flows show substantial improvement. Until signals appear, treat the rebound as just a rebound, not a reversal. The fate of $ETH and other major coins also depends on this.What is a trailing stop? How can you avoid exiting too early from a continuing trend while protecting existing profits?
In cryptocurrency trading, after a price increase, traders often face a dilemma: when should they take profits? Selling too early might miss out on further gains; holding on too long might gradually erode the profits already made. A trailing stop offers a dynamic way to manage exit points, but it also has its limitations.
First, what is a trailing stop?
A trailing stop is a strategy that adjusts the stop-loss position as the price moves favorably. For a long position, when the price keeps rising, the stop-loss can move up according to a preset distance or percentage; when the price falls back, the stop-loss usually does not automatically loosen downward.
Second, what are the advantages of a trailing stop?
It helps traders retain their positions during a continuing trend while gradually tightening risk as the price moves favorably. If the market keeps running, a trailing stop may allow traders to capture greater profits than a fixed take-profit.
Third, why can a trailing stop also trigger prematurely?
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; normal pullbacks may hit the stop-loss level, but the price then continues in the original direction. Setting the distance too close makes it easy to be triggered by short-term fluctuations; setting it too far may result in giving back a significant portion of profits.
Fourth, how to set a reasonable trailing distance
It can be determined by combining market volatility, support and resistance levels, and trading cycles, rather than mechanically applying a fixed percentage. Short-term strategies usually require attention to execution speed, while trend strategies should allow reasonable price fluctuations 【HiLo Big Gray Brother Morning Report】11/06 · AI sector faces liquidation, US stocks and crypto markets fall in resonance (1/2)
Good Friday morning!
Last night, US stocks experienced an epic crash, with QQQ plunging about 6%. The tech and storage sectors led the decline, with single-day drops exceeding 15%–20%. This wave of market action has directly started liquidating AI.
We have been tracking QQQ since two weeks ago. After breaking the daily trend last week, QQQ tested 730 twice but failed to hold above it. We warned that this might lead to a downward trend cycle, targeting the previous low around 660. Last night, the lowest point directly hit around 640, a drop of over 15% from 730.
From a larger timeframe perspective, this decline has broken below the post-2025 tariff war upward cycle. A "daily high" appeared at the top, and it may now be entering a downward cycle; the weekly support target below is 600, and the adjustment cycle may continue until next month.
#HiLoBigGrayBrotherMorningReport #QQQ #AI #USStocks #NasdaqState capital entering the crypto space has added a new case. The Kazakhstan government spent about $100 million, investing in several crypto funds including Brevan Howard Digital. Interestingly, the Kazakhstan central bank and its own national crypto fund (Alem Crypto Fund) have not yet publicly claimed this transaction, and the official announcement is still empty. This is not baseless; the groundwork has long been laid. In September 2025, the Alem Fund was established, and it had previously purchased BNB through Binance Kazakhstan. The Kazakhstan central bank is also evaluating allocating $300 to $350 million from reserves to crypto assets. But the approach is conservative: the first choice is to buy ETFs and high-tech stocks, rather than directly buying coins. They have set a clear target: by early 2026, to establish a national crypto reserve of $500 million to $1 billion. So this $100 million is most likely an execution step, just not yet publicly announced with fanfare. The "smart play" of national funds entering the market My own view is that the approach of national funds in this matter is very clear. They do not directly touch spot assets but invest through professional crypto funds or buy indirect products. The advantage of this approach is lower compliance risk: no need to handle private key management, exchange hacks, regulatory scrutiny, and other hassles themselves, leaving the professional matters to professional institutions. But the downside is also obvious: lack of transparency. What exactly was bought? What is the position size? Who is managing it? If this information is not disclosed, the outside world has no way of knowing the actual status of this national reserve.XINxINTC is flashing early signs of a potential trend reversal, currently rebounding to $54.24 (+5.03%) after a severe capitulation. The daily chart shows a classic "V-shaped" bounce forming off the critical $50.61 support level. This upward momentum is fundamentally backed by the recent Intel FY2026 Q3 earnings beat (EPS $0.52), which has injected fresh optimism.Will the positive earnings momentum be enough to sustain this rally and break the $60 resistance?After this round of continuous decline, it stopped falling around 75158. The bears went through a round of concentrated release, and the short-term short-selling momentum has weakened. The speed of decline has slowed down, entering a state of low-level oscillation and bottom consolidation, which is the technical foundation.
Combined with the news, the previously market-worried regulatory expectations have gradually been realized, the negative factors have already been priced in by the market, and the panic sentiment has cooled down. Some funds will choose to try to play the repair market at low levels, and there is room for emotional recovery. The high-level leveraged positions have basically been cleared, the selling pressure no longer continuously emerges, and the stability of the market oscillation is slowly improving. As long as the low point support holds, it leaves room for rebound and repair."Don't Just Look at the Breakout: Open Interest Is More Honest Than Price Gains"
Many people misunderstand an increase in open interest as "more people are bullish," which is the first mistake. Every contract has both long and short sides; open interest only answers one question: how many positions remain open on the table, and it does not directly tell you who holds the advantage.
It only makes sense when price and open interest are considered together.
Price up, open interest up: new positions keep entering, the trend has fuel. But if the funding rate also spikes sharply, it means the trade is getting crowded, so "strength" and "danger" may coexist.
Price up, open interest down: more like a closing push, often caused by short covering. A fast surge doesn't mean strong endurance; there must be active spot buying to take over next, or it’s prone to a pullback after the high.
Price down, open interest up: divergence and positions are both expanding; don’t rashly interpret the drop as a shakeout. What you should observe most is who is actively trading, not who is shouting the loudest.
Price down, open interest down: usually corresponds to deleveraging and position liquidation, possibly nearing clearance, but "nearing" does not mean "completed." You also need to see cooling funding rates, weakening selling pressure, and price stopping new lows.
Another common misconception: when the coin price rises, the nominal value of open interest measured in USD naturally grows. To compare open interest changes, it’s best to also look at coin-denominated quantities or contract counts, so as not to mistake price effects for new capital inflows.
My reading sequence has only twelve characters: price sets position, open interest sets nature, volume sets direction, funding rate sets crowding.
Discussion: Does a rise caused by short covering count as a true breakout?
My answer is: the price breakout is real, but the trend breakout is not yet proven. Passive closing can create the first phase of speed; sustained active buying decides the second phase of space.
Poll: Which combination do you most easily misjudge—A. price up open interest up; B. price up open interest down; C. price down open interest down; D. ignore open interest, only look at candlesticks.
I choose B. Because "rising prices" most easily make people relax their guard, while a decrease in open interest precisely reminds you: this rise may mainly come from opponents retreating, not new friends entering.
Not investment advice, risk on your own. $BTC #MarketAnalysisThe crypto market has really been a roller coaster these past two days: just the day before, BTC was pulled back above $80,000, but the next day, with the US stock market crashing, almost all the gains were wiped out, and BTC once dropped to around $75,700. Yesterday, the Nasdaq plunged 5.5%, the S&P fell 4.4%, and the crypto market saw over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, with longs getting collectively harvested again. To put it simply, it’s not necessarily that the crypto fundamentals suddenly worsened, but that market risk appetite cooled down, and leverage couldn’t hold up. It’s Friday today, so don’t rush to bottom-fish; first, see if the US stock market can stabilize. The market tends to punish overexcitement—chasing rallies and panic selling are the easiest ways to get hit from both sides. $BTC $ETH $QQQ