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At noon, I was lying on the desk scrolling through my phone when a little brother in the group suddenly popped up and asked me: Bro, isn't SUI about AI? Why does it seem like it's been drained of energy these past few days?
I said, first put down your milk tea and listen to me.
The thing about the SUI chain is real. The foundation invested 30 million dollars in a protocol for AI training data traceability. Simply put, it means the data fed into AI can be traced back to its source, not some nonsense from thin air. The storage layer is handled by Walrus. I acknowledge this story; the direction is right. The AI folks are anxious as hell; sooner or later, the data sources will be thoroughly checked.
But you’re mixing up one thing: having a good product and the price immediately going up are two different things.
Right now, it’s hovering around 0.05. It’s dropped about ten percent over the week. The project team is paving the way upfront, while the price is snoring behind. Do you think they’re paving the way or burying you? You decide.
I’m holding my position. I didn’t run when it dropped, but with how it looks now, I won’t add more either. People who have been liquidated have one advantage—they learn not to argue with themselves.
If you just entered the market, don’t rush to ask me if this is the bottom—I don’t know either. I only know that holding a position you can sleep soundly with is better than anything else. That’s it for noon, the food’s getting cold. $SUI Newbies trading contracts, changing these 3 habits can save you a lot of money
Many people enter the crypto space and jump straight into contracts, thinking money comes fast. But the real reason for losses is often not the market, but these bad habits.
1. High leverage + full position
Accounts with a few hundred U dare to open 50x leverage, a 2% price fluctuation causes liquidation. Newbies are advised to keep single position size under 5% of total funds and start with low leverage. Contract trading is not about who dares to open bigger, but who survives longer.
2. No stop loss, stubbornly holding losses
Spot positions can be waited out when stuck, but contracts can go to zero if held too long. Set your stop loss before opening a position and execute it when hit. Don’t keep thinking "just wait a bit longer and it will come back."
3. Chasing highs and selling lows
Rushing in on big rises and buying on big drops often means buying at the peak or halfway down the mountain. Before entering, ask yourself: where is my stop loss? Is the risk-reward ratio reasonable? Am I entering based on logic or fear of missing out?
Simple rules
● Do not use living expenses for contracts
● Avoid high leverage
● Always set stop loss for each trade
● Don’t rush to recover losses
Share in the comments the biggest pitfall you’ve fallen into, let’s avoid traps together.
$BTC $ETH $Many people only focus on the valuations of well-known companies, but overlook a phenomenon worth studying: HRT is becoming an important talent source in quantitative trading, artificial intelligence, and crypto infrastructure. 🔥 Notable HRT alumni who have already emerged: • Scott Wu — Cognition, valued at about $48 billion • Alexandr Wang — Scale AI, valued at about $29 billion • Jeffrey Yan — Hyperliquid, market cap about $18 billion • Jesse Zhang — Decagon, valued at about $4.5 billion • Ben Davenport — BitGo, publicly listed, market cap about $840 million • Demi Guo — Pika, valued at about $470 million • Leo Mehr — Lumos, total funding about $85 million These cases span AI, blockchain, fintech, and enterprise software, showing that top quantitative talent's capabilities are not limited to trading. 👀 The next batch of startups worth watching: 🔹 Vals AI — Langston Nashold focuses on independent evaluation of AI model performance. According to the original text, in August 2026, they completed a $40 million Series A round led by a16z, with HRT also participating in the investment. 🔹 Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$RSR top accounts are more bullish, but positions remain bearish. The proportion of bullish accounts increased by 1.21 percentage points, and the proportion of long positions rose by 0.02 percentage points, still at 45.3%.#Broadcom and Intel CEOs Warn of AI Financing Pressure# This round of cooling AI narrative directly suppresses speculative demand for high-beta small coins like MMT, and I believe the short-term weakness is hard to change. Funds are retreating, and the quote at 0.1754 looks more like a downward consolidation rather than a bottom.
In the last 24 hours, volatility narrowed to 6.8%, volume only 903,000, the rebound was pushed back at 0.1779, and the low at 0.1666 is precarious. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both downward, falling 4.05% and 8.36% respectively from the highs, but the top 10 buy orders in the order book total 14,000 against 11,000 sell orders, a ratio of 1.22 indicating support at low levels. The funding rate at 0.0050% is relatively low, with 9.654 million coin-based positions showing no panic liquidation; both bulls and bears are watching.
Strategy-wise, a light short position can be tried on a rebound to 0.1763, with a stop loss at 0.1798 and a target of 0.1669; if volume breaks below 0.1661, then chase shorts with a stop loss at 0.1697 and a target of 0.1583. Keep position size under 5%, and avoid holding heavy overnight positions before the funding rate turns negative.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$MMT#Broadcom and Intel CEOs Warn of AI Financing Pressure
#Broadcom and Intel CEOs Warn of AI Financing Pressure $MMT #Tokenized assets are accelerating expansion, how far is large-scale implementation? SNDK, as an on-chain asset target, is currently in a narrative heating up and selling pressure releasing tug-of-war period. My judgment is short-term bearish, but the downside support is not weak.
Fell 8.4% in 24 hours to 1449.4, with a trading volume of only 521,000, yet the funding rate is as high as 0.0299%, longs are still paying to hold positions, and 69,000 coins are held without obvious liquidation. The 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are both declining synchronously, having retraced 19.21% from the 4-hour high, while the order book shows top 10 bids at 608 and asks at 165, with a buy-sell ratio of 3.68, indicating clear dominance of low-level bids. The cost-effectiveness for shorts to continue attacking is decreasing.
Strategy-wise, a light short position can be tried near 1487.5 with a stop loss at 1512.8 and a target of 1421.3; if it directly probes 1421.3 without breaking and buying continues, one can reverse to long with a stop loss at 1398.6 and a target of 1476.4. Keep position size within 5%, avoid heavy positions before the funding rate turns negative.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$SNDK#Tokenized assets are accelerating expansion, how far is large-scale implementation?
#Tokenized assets are accelerating expansion, how far is large-scale implementation? $SNDK 🔥 Boss Eleven VS Big Brother Maji! Two major whales with completely opposite strategies, the market battle is fully intense.
📉 Boss Eleven's move is very decisive: ETH perpetual 30X full position long, entered at an average price of 2630, cut at 2620 in less than 2 minutes, a real loss of 21,000 U, a return rate of -12.73%, very quick to admit the mistake; then reversed to BTC perpetual 30X full position short, small profit of 5159 U, ZEC 5X isolated margin short also pocketed 7451 U, overall leaning towards short-term, quick in and out.
🆚 Big Brother Maji has a different approach: BTC 40X short continuously profitable, ETH 25X long holding through drawdowns, heavy short positions enduring the pressure on the books, more like betting on a directional reversal.
⚠️ When such big divergences between longs and shorts occur, repeated spikes are more likely. Don’t just watch how the whales play; following high leverage might get you liquidated before the direction even emerges.
👇 Which side are you on? Boss Eleven’s quick cut, or Big Brother Maji’s tough hold? Discuss in the comments. The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
#September CPI announcement imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes still needed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs flow out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening? 😱 I was stunned when I opened the app this morning: What's going on? Another drop?
📉 BTC has dropped by two points this round, now around 81,397. At this pace, it might test the key level of 80,000 again.
🤔 But what's even stranger is that XAU gold is also falling. Normally, when Bitcoin falls, gold should rise since one is a risk asset and the other a safe haven asset. Now both are going down together, indicating the market isn't just reacting to a single negative factor, but overall risk appetite is shrinking, and funds are withdrawing simultaneously.
⚠️ At times like this, don't rush to guess the bottom, and don't leverage up just because "it has dropped a lot and should rebound." High-leverage positions are most vulnerable to repeated stop-outs during correlated declines. First, see if BTC can hold 80,000, then watch if gold stops falling, and only then talk about a rebound.
👇 What do you think—is this a short-term shakeout or the start of a new downtrend? Let's discuss in the comments. The above is just personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? The big coin hit the target level mentioned this morning, firmly holding above 83000.
The hardest part about trading is staying clear-headed when others are fearful. When the sharp drop hit the bottom, the market was in panic, but those who truly made money didn’t rely on luck—they had a plan in advance and dared to execute when the price reached the level. Buying chips at the low isn’t about courage, it’s about understanding.
There’s a lot of resistance around 83800 above, with the Bollinger upper band and a dense cluster of moving averages stacked together. It’s not something you can just break through in one go casually. If it breaks through, everyone’s happy; if not, a few days of consolidation is reasonable.
My stance is clear: still bullish, but don’t rush your hands. Either wait for it to firmly stand above the resistance before riding the trend, or wait for a pullback near 82500 to see the strength of support—buy if there’s opportunity, otherwise keep waiting.
The market never lacks opportunities; it lacks people who aren’t driven by emotions. Manage your position size well, don’t get carried away. $BTC $ETH CPI will be released tomorrow night, and this old lady Harker is already coming out calling for a rate hike. Is Bitcoin going to be roasted on the fire again? Pharaoh directly said that Harker's move is just a "scare letter on the eve of CPI," who is she trying to scare? The market hasn't believed her spiel for a long time. Let's first see what Harker said. Cleveland Fed President Harker clearly stated that interest rates need to be raised further to bring inflation back to the 2% target. What she worries about is not a single data point, but the "inflation mindset" solidifying—businesses are starting to make price increases a habit, with price hikes even exceeding cost increases, which is the early warning signal she fears the most. She also said her forecast for the neutral rate is on the "higher side" within the FOMC, implying that current rates are not tight enough and need to continue rising. But does the market believe her? Basically, it’s just white noise. CME data shows the probability of holding rates steady in October is still between 81.7% and 82.3%, with the chance of a rate hike only 17.7% to 18.3%. Investors expect the October 27-28 meeting rates to remain steady at 3.75%-4.00%. Harker is a "hawk" who voted twice against rate hikes in July and September; everyone knows her stance clearly, and the market has long priced in her words. Tomorrow night’s CPI is the real judge. At 20:30 Beijing time on October 14, the US September CPI will be released. The market expects the overall CPI year-on-year to rise to 3.6%, month-on-month 0.6%; core CPI month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year 2.5%. If the number$BTC current price 83,227, slightly up 0.65%. The lowest hit at midnight was 80,961. That 81,000 B on the chart was where I gritted my teeth and nervously added in; now the profit barely breaks even. It was truly a narrow escape from death, almost forcibly liquidated. The main force's V-shaped rebound really plays with your heartbeat. After a night going from hell to earth, just back to the break-even line, I just want to say: thank heavens, give me a chance to break even and run, I won’t be greedy anymore. $ETH current price 2,505, down 0.93%. Ethereum really is hopeless. The lowest hit 2,407, and that 2,440 B on the chart was also where I caught a falling knife. Following Bitcoin’s V-shaped rebound, it climbs like a snail; no share when it rises, but leading the charge when it falls. Bitcoin is almost reclaiming lost ground, while it’s still dawdling here. Holding its long position is like serving a sentence, mentally exhausted, really about to be driven crazy by it.Microsoft's new generation AI chip boosts tech sentiment, but KAITO, as an AI narrative token, has not followed the rise. My judgment is that it remains in a short-term weak consolidation pattern.
Down 3.3% in 24 hours to 0.3094, with a trading volume of 15.195 million. The 4-hour downtrend pressure is obvious, having fallen 14.53% from the 4-hour high; although there was a rebound in the 1-hour chart, it is still 4.48% below the high, and the low point of 0.2891 was just defended. The order book buy/sell ratio is 0.95, with sellers slightly dominant. The funding rate of 0.005% indicates mild bullish sentiment, with no signs of overheating.
Strategy-wise, if it pulls back and stabilizes at 0.2987, a light long position can be tried with a stop loss at 0.2883 and a target of 0.3179; if the rebound is resisted at 0.3183, then short on the pullback with a stop loss at 0.3247 and a target of 0.3021. Keep position size within 20%, and consider adding only after breaking previous highs or falling below previous lows.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$KAITO #Microsoft releases new generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high
#Microsoft releases new generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high $KAITO #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? This wave of sentiment is also weighing on SOL. I see the short-term trend still leaning weak, with rebounds considered repairs rather than reversals.
SOL is currently at 107.59, down 3.7% in 24h, hitting a low of 101.58 before recovering, with a trading volume of 12.442 million; it has fallen 13.28% from the 4-hour high and is only 4.51% above the 1-hour low, indicating limited rebound strength. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.90, with selling pressure dominant; funding rate is -0.0029%, open interest at 3.149 million, bearish sentiment is not strong but bulls are not taking over either.
Strategy-wise, lightly short near 109.35 with a stop loss at 111.85, target first at 103.65; if it pulls back to 102.45 and stabilizes, consider a short-term long with stop loss at 100.85, target 106.75. Position size should not exceed 20%, admit mistake if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SOL #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? $SOL "The water has receded, but the dog is still there," meaning even Third Sister is still holding on to Dogecoin.
Ran 1.3 billion in a week, this kind of momentum is familiar. It was the same in winter 2022, my dad messaged late at night: "Are you still holding that Dogecoin?" I replied, "Yes." He just said "Oh," which was more painful than scolding me. Back then, the account was shrinking every day, I shoved the market app into a second screen folder, pretending not to see it. How did I get through it? Don’t sell, don’t look, don’t add. Over time, the wound scabbed over by itself.
This time is the same. Money flowing out is someone else’s choice; the dog lying in my wallet is my choice. I don’t persuade others to stay, nor does anyone persuade me to leave. The pool is small, just guard it. The market’s water level rises and falls, but my small pool is enough.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Russia and Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yields could reach 6% SanDisk $SNDK's recent drop is really brutal
It was hovering around 1600 before, but then ChangXin Storage suddenly announced progress in next-generation DRAM technology, preparing to launch new products for AI data centers by the end of the year
Wow, the entire storage sector got shocked:
Micron down, Hynix down, SanDisk even worse, its stock price dropped more than 9% in two days, now crushed down to around 1444
The most interesting part is that SanDisk mainly makes NAND, while ChangXin announced DRAM technology this time, so theoretically they aren't direct competitors
But the market doesn't care at all, just selling first and asking questions later 😂
I'm still bearish on SNDK in the short term; after such a drop, the bulls haven't even put up a decent fight
But after continuous big drops, watch out for a sudden rebound
For those really wanting to catch a falling knife, I suggest first seeing if anyone is willing to push the price up a bit
NFA, DYOR!
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 $ETH
Ethereum is really wild! Took profit at 2400
Didn't expect Ethereum to bottom near 2407! Oh my god
Short position at 2545 down to 2400, nearly 145 points profit!
But the lowest was 2407, didn't quite reach near 2400!
Now it has pulled back to 2500! Damn
Sigh! I'll keep holding! Maybe it will touch 2400 againStandard Chartered Bank provides custody services for RLUSD under Ripple, indicating that compliant stablecoin infrastructure is being accepted by traditional major banks, which is a positive sentiment for SLX in the same sector; however, the positive news does not change the current weakness, and I tend to favor further short-term downside exploration.
The four-hour downtrend is steeper, with a 24.80% retracement from the high. The current price of 0.05384 is close above the 24h low of 0.05133, with a trading volume of 4.636 million showing that selling pressure has not abated. The buy-sell ratio is 0.95, slightly favoring sellers, the funding rate is 0.0050%, which is neutral, and the open interest of 29.571 million shows no panic liquidation.
If it rebounds to 0.05571, a light short position can be taken, with a stop loss at 0.05743 and a target of 0.05119; if it breaks and holds above 0.05418 with volume, then a short-term long is advised, with a stop loss at 0.05267 and a target of 0.05864. Position size should not exceed 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SLX #Standard Chartered Bank provides custody services for RLUSD under Ripple
#Standard Chartered Bank provides custody services for RLUSD under Ripple $SLX At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the September CPI will be released.
But there is one thing more worth your caution than the data itself: Wall Street has already decided "how to interpret this data" in advance.
The overall CPI month-on-month surged from 0.4% to 0.6%, the largest increase in five months. Oil prices hit $110, and Brent has not calmed down since the day the Houthi forces attacked Riyadh airport.
Sounds scary?
Don't rush. Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, and Mitsubishi UFJ are highly consistent: "The rise in oil prices has not caused broad inflation, just look at the core CPI."
Deutsche Bank has already lowered the core CPI month-on-month expectation to 0.16%, the lowest on Wall Street. Morgan Stanley's highest forecast is only 0.21%. The median of institutional forecasts is 0.21%.
Overall 0.58%, core 0.21%. A tale of two extremes.
The narrative has been written in advance: energy is noise, core is the signal. The Fed has room to remain patient.
This logic is sound. But it is also the biggest trap tomorrow night.
Three deviations, three scenarios
The direction of the core CPI month-on-month deviation from 0.2% will determine the fate of all risk assets in the next two weeks.
0.2% realized — The Fed is "not in a hurry," not "stopping." The probability of a rate hike in October is now only about 20%, but still above 70% in December. Inflation has been below target for 65 months; the five-year account is not settled, and the market will not turn the page just because one month's data looks good.
0.3% — Re-discussion. Core hasn't come down; inflation is more resilient than expected. The probability of an October rate hike jumps from 20%, and BTC's support near 80000 will be tested again.
0.4% — Direct re-pricing. The market currently prices only a 20% chance of an October hike; if core explodes to 0.4%, how high will that number jump? Refer to the level before last week's nonfarm payrolls — over 65%. BTC will break down from 83000 through 80000, with the next defense line at 75000.
But the real risk is not in the data itself, but in positions. The market has already priced in the "moderate core CPI" expectation. The October hike probability fell from 70% to 20%, during which BTC rebounded from 75000 to 83000. If core CPI really meets expectations, do you think the market will rise or fall?
The answer might be: no rise, even a slight drop. Because the good news is already priced in.
What not to do tomorrow night
First, don't trade based on the overall CPI 0.6%. This number is lagging information; oil prices already rose in September. Brent has fallen from $110 to around $103, and the marginal push of energy on inflation is waning. The market knows this before you.
Second, don't heavily bet on direction before the data comes out. The difference between core CPI 0.2% and 0.3% is only 0.1 percentage points, but for BTC it could mean the difference between 80000 and 75000. A 0.1% deviation, 5% price fluctuation. This bet is not worth it.
Third, watch the 10-year US Treasury yield. Last week yields fell to 5.19%, and the 30-year to 5.55%. If yields fall rather than rise after the CPI data, it means the market is telling you: inflation is not a problem. If yields rise again, no matter how good the data looks, risk assets will be under pressure.
The long-term logic hasn't changed. BTC's 365-day moving average has already been broken through, which historically signals the end of a weak market cycle. But that doesn't mean it won't drop first tomorrow night.
The data hasn't come out yet, but the narrative has.
When everyone is focused on the core CPI 0.2%, the real risk is precisely — expectations are too optimistic, and the market has no extra bullets to fulfill this optimism.
See you at 20:30 tomorrow night.
$BTC $XAU $BZ #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 PI at $PI 0.07998 up +1.60% today, between $0.07782-$0.08250. Range $0.07713-$0.09880. Volume 29.74M, turnover $2.38M. Below MA5 $0.08117, MA10 $0.08290, MA20 $0.08643 bearish structure. Support $0.07782 low. Resistance $0.08117 and $0.08290. Needs close above $0.08117 for reversal signal. Entry $0.0778-$0.0799 dip, Target $0.0811, $0.0829, Stop $0.0750. Trend bearish short-term. NFA. 7D -8.14%, 30D -17.31%, 90D +1.43%, 180D -53.68% weak overall momentum. Adding to the position during this dip finally paid off.
$ETH $BTC
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed
Babala's average ETH long position price reached 2497, and the price just bounced back above the cost, with the position already starting to turn profitable.
Previously, the price plummeted from above 2600 down to around 2400, crushing market sentiment. Babala chose to add to the position during the decline, not because the bottom was certain, but because there was continuous support in the 2400–2450 range, and BTC did not continue to collapse after falling near 80000.
Currently, ETH is still fighting around 2500.
2500 is the short-term boundary between bulls and bears; the real rebound confirmation level is at 2530. As long as the price stabilizes above 2530 again, there is a chance to retest 2565–2600; if it can effectively break through 2600, this rally can shift from an oversold recovery to a stronger rebound.
Babala remains bullish on ETH, mainly based on two logics.
First, the previous sharp drop has released a large amount of high-leverage longs, providing a concentrated short-term selling pressure washout.
Second, the area around 2400 still serves as effective structural support. As long as this zone is not broken again, the mid-term rebound logic remains intact.
But the risks are also very clear. Morning Market Analysis
Looking this morning, as expected, there was that rebound wave around midnight again. It started pulling up around 2 AM, then dropped back down around 7 or 8 AM, the rhythm is still the same.
$BTC is around $82,300, down about 1.5% in 24 hours, falling back from the high of $84,300, with support near $81,000 below.
$ETH is around $2,460, down about 3% in 24 hours, the rebound strength is weak, watching the $2,400 area below for now.
$ZEC is around $1,266, with greater volatility, support is near $1,220 below.
Regarding market sentiment, the greed index is still at 69, but it’s more of a short squeeze pushing prices up rather than real large-scale buying. ETF funds are still flowing out, and institutions remain cautious. Retail investors are mostly on the sidelines, hesitant to take heavy positions, with orders sweeping back and forth between longs and shorts, making trading very difficult.
Looking ahead, the market will most likely continue to oscillate and grind sideways during the day. Before tomorrow’s CPI data release, the market is more prone to fluctuations, so don’t rush to call a reversal.
This rebound looks more like a corrective consolidation after a decline, not a true reversal. If the midnight spike can catch the support level, the risk-reward ratio is still acceptable; if not, don’t chase it hard, wait for tomorrow’s CPI data to see the direction. Only assets with real fundamentals and the ability to generate returns are truly worth focusing on.
⚠️Personal market review, not investment advice Bitcoin has been pulling back all the way, breaking below the 82301 support, even spiking down to falsely break 81444. Fortunately, it has recovered back above 81444. The red arrow below points to what could be considered a second retest of the previous low; personally, I think it counts. Because it hasn't broken the previous low, a second retest can't perfectly hit the previous low at 80379. As long as it retests near 80379 without breaking below it, it counts as a second retest. Let's treat this as Bitcoin's second retest of the previous low, and at the position circled in white, a bullish engulfing pattern appeared. The appearance of a bullish engulfing pattern indicates a rebound demand at the current level, and since it has recovered back above the 82301 resistance, there's every reason to expect a strong rebound! Now it's about whether Bitcoin can break above 83276. If it breaks above 83276, it will challenge the 84369 resistance. Only by breaking 84369 can Bitcoin's rise be smoother. As long as the pullback doesn't break the previous low at 80379, this pullback is almost over. Don't assume Bitcoin will fall to 70,000 or 60,000 just because of a drop. If it really falls to 70,000, you still won't dare to enter, and if it really falls to 70,000, the trend has changed and it will be hard to recover. Bitcoin broke above 83102 with volume; aggressive traders can chase longs on the right side. The 82282 volume break down with a failed rebound to recover means chasing shorts on the right side is not advised; set good stop losses. On the hourly chart, Bitcoin broke and held above 83102, looking up to 84369-85286. If it can't get above 83102, it's useless. On the 4-hour chart, breaking below 82282 points downward.BTC fell below $81,000, with $1.16 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions. Altcoins fared worse: BOME dropped 30%, BLUR fell 29%, STRK declined 28%. 190,000 accounts were wiped out.
Data from prediction market Myriad shows: the probability of BTC dropping below $80,000 is 67%, and below $75,000 is 24%.
But looking from another angle—how much bad news has the market already priced in?
Counter-evidence has arrived.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson did the math: US spot ETFs hold 1.29 million BTC at an average cost of $76,909; publicly listed companies hold 1.28 million BTC at an average cost of $78,834.
Together, they hold 2.57 million BTC, nearly 13% of supply, with purchase prices almost identical—between $77,000 and $79,000.
This is not an arbitrary line. This is a cost zone established by institutions putting real money on the line.
On-chain analyst Luke Dins added another dimension: the "realized market mean," measuring the average holding cost of active investors, is also around $77,000. Short-term holders’ cost basis is about $74,000, and the 200-day moving average is near $72,000.
Three key indicators all point to the $72,000 to $77,000 range.
What do institutions think?
Wintermute clearly states: the bull market is still in its early stages, $82,500 has turned into a support level, and the next target range is $90,000 to $95,000.
Citigroup is even more aggressive—raising BTC’s 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000, citing ETF inflows and institutional demand as ongoing market support.
One sees $95,000 in the short term, the other $113,000 long term.
So what exactly is falling now?
The 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.7%, the highest since 2002. When risk-free yields offer you 5.7% annual returns, why would you put your money in BTC?
What’s feared is interest rates, not BTC itself.
Core judgment: this is not a "buy-the-dip signal," but a "structural assessment."
Even if BTC falls to the $72,000–$77,000 range, it doesn’t necessarily mean the bullish structure is broken. More accurately, it’s an important retest of a key support area.
Wedson made it clear: when Bitcoin previously dropped to $58,500, ETF investors’ average holdings shrank by 24%, but there was no large-scale sell-off. Institutions held firm.
At the $77,000 level, institutions stand on the same side as you.
$BTC $BOME $STRK #SeptemberCPIcomingsoon, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed BTC quickly dipped to 80985 in the morning forming a V-shaped rebound with strong recovery momentum, currently surging past 83500;
ETH simultaneously plunged sharply to 2407 before a strong pullback, reaching a high of 2510 above.
On the news front, Trump stated that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is possible, crude oil has retreated short-term from highs, combined with a slight weakening of the dollar, creating a short-term liquidity environment favorable to crypto. Therefore, this dip did not turn into a one-sided sharp drop but formed a bottoming and rebound structure.
However, external risks remain: China's A-share tech sector is weak, Nasdaq futures are under pressure pre-market, and South Korean stock circuit breakers caused disturbances, making the US market volatile tonight.
Trading reference:
BTC: try short near 83800, add positions at 84500;
ETH: try short near 2525, add positions at 2555. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard After a sharp drop, ETH has entered a recovery rebound, fluctuating between 2500 and 2580 in the short term. The four-hour MACD shows a golden cross, with momentum to test 2570–2580; if it stalls and falls back, first watch 2520, and if it breaks, then defend 2480.
From this week to next week, the volatility range to reference is 2497–2577. The mid-term upward structure is still intact, and the price remains above EMA60 and EMA90. The real focus is the US September CPI on October 14. Don't guess the direction before the data is released; after the data comes out, watch how the funds choose.
In the mid-term view, ETH's resilience is stronger than BTC's, with momentum for an oversold rebound. It is expected to challenge around 2700 next month. However, there is historical supply pressure of over 10 million ETH between 2700 and 2800, so a volume breakout is necessary to continue aiming for 3000.
In the long term, ecological expansion combined with spot ETF capital layout suggests the next bull market may start around 2027, at which point there will be a chance to challenge the previous high of 4946.
Don't rush to heavily buy now; wait for CPI and confirmation near 2580 first. Do you think ETH can rebound back to 2700 this time? Let's discuss in the comments. The above is only personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#SeptemberCPIReleaseImminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed $ETH fell below 2400! Hundred-times long positions cut losses, relying entirely on $STRK short positions to claw back 94% 🤡
Today is a “Technical Insights Day,” the market accelerated downward, ETH broke below the 2400 mark, and the whole network is in panic. Let’s take a look at my tale of two extremes. 🍵
——————
📈 Reward for following the trend (Fig. 2):
$STRK short position, 3x leverage, average price 0.12119. Today it dropped all the way down to 0.08299, floating profit soared to +94.56% (a big blood return)!
Technical breakdown: Moving averages in bearish alignment, MACD continuously diverging below the zero line. In this kind of one-sided downtrend, shorting with the trend is the correct move, capturing big gains.
📉 Punishment for going against the trend (Fig. 3):
$ETH long position, 100x leverage, average price 2526. Last night I stubbornly tried to catch a falling knife, but it got smashed through in the middle of the night. At 07:34 this morning, reluctantly cut losses, losing -336.75% (21.27U lost).
Technical reflection: Hundred-times leverage has almost zero tolerance in a one-sided downtrend. When the market breaks down, mainstream coins fall together; bottom-fishing against the trend only accelerates zeroing out.
⚠️ Lingering hidden risks (Fig. 1):
$CL crude oil short grid, running for nearly 5 days, with 548 arbitrage trades accumulated, but unpaired losses continue to widen, total return dropped to -11.55%. This again proves: in a one-sided market, grid trading is a bottomless pit like boiling a frog slowly.
——————
💬 Brothers, with ETH below 2400 and extremely oversold conditions, do you dare to bottom-fish?
Should I take profits on this $STRK short or keep holding?
The crude oil grid must be manually stopped today!
Share your technical views in the comments, take advice! 👇
#ETH #STRK #CrudeOilCL #OKX #TradingInsights #TechnicalAnalysis #RetailTraderDiary
(Disclaimer: The above is only a personal trading review record and does not constitute any investment advice. Contract trading carries extremely high risk, please be sure to manage risk.) #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, has institutional demand weakened?
From October 5 to 9, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $679 million, breaking the streak of three consecutive weeks of net inflows. Ethereum fared worse, with a $542 million outflow during the same period, marking the largest single-week outflow since January, and it has been running for nine consecutive trading days. Together, they saw a total outflow of $1.221 billion in one week.
But guess what? Bitcoin’s price actually rebounded during this period. Money is flowing out while the price bounces—this kind of divergence is unsettling.
What’s the impact?
First, short-term sentiment is definitely hit. ETFs were the strongest leg of this rally, and now that leg is not only losing strength but pushing backward. With no fresh capital inflow, and funds withdrawing, it’s even harder to push prices up.
Second, don’t rush to say institutions are fleeing. A $1.2 billion weekly outflow sounds scary, but compared to the $1 billion single-day inflows seen recently, it’s not out of control. The whole market is currently waiting on CPI and PPI data; this is portfolio adjustment amid macro uncertainty, not mainstream funds quitting. The key is to see if ETFs can turn positive again after next week’s data release.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH Russia and the US advance diesel supply cooperation, but differences remain over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, with geopolitical premiums unlikely to dissipate in the short term. BTC's trend is more driven by capital flow; I lean towards a weak consolidation. Down 0.3% in 24h, the price retreated from 84348.2, with 80961.3 confirmed as intraday support. The top 10 order book buy-sell ratio is only 0.19, indicating obvious selling pressure; funding rate at 0.0040% is neutral, with 29,000 coins held, sentiment cautious. Uptrend on 1-hour but downtrend on 4-hour, rebound strength limited. Strategy: light short positions near 83580, stop loss at 84315, target 81420; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 80865, consider short-term long, stop loss 80240, target 82690. Total position not exceeding 20%, strict leverage control.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BTC#Russia and the US advance diesel supply cooperation, but differences remain over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire
#Russia and the US advance diesel supply cooperation, but differences remain over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire $BTC #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? This round of sentiment is spilling over to high-beta assets like WLD. My judgment is that the short-term rebound has not been falsified, but discipline takes precedence over prediction. It dropped 6.9% in the past day, hitting a low of 0.4726, with a volume of 276 million, indicating that selling pressure has been quickly absorbed. The 1-hour level has turned upward, 7.52% above the low point, but the 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend channel, 14.39% below the high, showing divergence between large and small timeframes, so don’t rush to chase longs. Funding rate is -0.0089%, open interest is 67.624 million, shorts slightly dominate but not extreme. The top 10 order book buy/sell ratio is 1.12, 0.4993 is short-term support, 0.5487 is strong resistance. Strategy one: place a long at 0.5012 on pullback, stop loss at 0.4873, target 0.5471; strategy two: if volume breaks through 0.5513, chase again, stop loss at 0.5301, target 0.5797. Single position no more than 5%, exit on break.
—This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.—
$WLD#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? $WLD BTC retraces to 81,300 and stabilizes! Market awaits CPI to set direction
$BTC fell below $83,000 intraday
Basically giving back all the gains from Sunday
24-hour liquidation amount reached $71,981,900
Over 4,600 accounts liquidated
Short-term long positions faced concentrated liquidation
ETF funds show signs of short-term recovery
BTC net inflow of 127 coins in one day, about $10.49 million
Over a seven-day period, still a net outflow of 8,538 coins
$ETH continues to weaken
Both daily and seven-day metrics maintain net outflow status
Institutional long-term funds have not yet returned on a large scale
Bitfinex report provides key observations
BTC retraced to $81,300 support level
To break above $84,500
It depends on US CPI data and spot buying strength
ETF investors' average cost is around $84,300
This level will become strong resistance for a rebound
During the previous drop from the $87,200 high
There was a one-time liquidation of $1.18 billion in leveraged positions
The current market is clear
Short-term decline completed a round of long liquidations
Price temporarily holds at support
But long-term ETF selling pressure remains
Everyone in the market is waiting for the CPI results
Inflation data quality will directly determine the next market direction
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test In the past, when going to a bank for a loan, the bank might ask:
"Do you own a house?"
"Do you have land?"
"What assets can you use as collateral?"
Now, some banks in South Korea have started asking one more question:
"Do you have BTC?"
I find this much more interesting than BTC rising a few points today.
Jeonbuk Bank in South Korea has just launched Bitcoin-collateralized loans within the traditional banking system.
Currently, ordinary retail customers can't just bring a few BTC to the counter to borrow money.
The service is only available to corporate clients.
The BTC used as collateral is not directly handed over to the bank for safekeeping,
but entrusted to a third-party custody institution.
What’s even more interesting is the default handling:
If the borrower cannot repay the loan,
the collateralized BTC must be disposed of according to a court order.
When you see this, you’ll realize—
BTC is undergoing a very strange identity transformation.
More than a decade ago:
"A virtual currency on the internet."
Later:
"A speculative asset that can be traded."
Then:
"A financial asset in ETFs."
Now:
"An asset banks are willing to accept as collateral."
The gap between these identities is actually very large.
Because when banks are willing to design loan, custody, and default handling processes around an asset,
they are no longer just considering:
"Will this thing appreciate?"
But rather:
"Can this thing be included on the balance sheet?"
Of course, this does not mean BTC suddenly has no risk,
nor does it mean all banks will accept BTC as collateral in the future. Two years ago, my colleagues kept talking about this during meals.
I just listened for fun.
Later, I got itchy hands and tried with a few hundred bucks.
My first purchase was $BTC.
Right after buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much that I was checking the market on my phone late at night.
Then I tried $ETH.
The fees were so high it made me grimace.
One operation wasted half a day.
Later, I heard people hype $SOL as fast.
I transferred a little money to mess around on the chain.
It was really fast.
But the traps were real too.
Some projects were still there in the morning but gone by the afternoon.
I lost a few times before I got serious.
I don’t chase hot trends.
I don’t follow pump calls.
I don’t touch what I don’t understand.
I write my private keys on paper myself.
I don’t give them to anyone who asks.
I don’t click on unknown links.
No matter how tempting the airdrop is, I don’t connect my wallet recklessly.
Now I only use money I can afford to lose.
I just leave it there.
When it rises, I don’t get cocky.
When it falls, I don’t panic.
There are many opportunities in this field.
But there are even more traps.
Living long is more important than making a quick profit.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t get carried away.
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
Leave the rest to time.#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening?
#Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high There is a barbershop at the entrance of the neighborhood.
The barber is Old Zhou.
He has been cutting hair for over ten years.
Steady hands, not much talk.
Lately, he’s been staring at his phone a lot.
The screen flashes green and red.
I asked him what he was looking at.
He said he was watching $ETC.
I said, you’re into this too?
He said he just buys randomly.
His son taught him.
He bought for two thousand yuan.
Now only twelve hundred left.
I said that’s still okay.
He said what’s okay about it?
He has to cut ten heads to make that back.
Later he mentioned $APT.
Said it’s a new public chain.
Fast.
I asked if he understood it.
He said no.
He just buys when the group chat shouts about it.
Lost money again.
Then later.
He asked me if I wanted to buy $ARB.
I said you cut my hair first.
My hair is covering my eyes.
He laughed.
Said that’s true.
After the cut, I asked him.
Still watching the market?
He said no more.
Phone goes in the drawer.
When customers come, he cuts.
When no one’s around, he sweeps the floor.
I said that’s pretty healthy.
He said what’s healthy about it?
Just don’t want to lose more.
The ten or twenty yuan from haircuts is hard-earned.
I left and touched my head.
The cut was pretty good.
Much easier on the eyes than those K-line charts. #September CPI announcement imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes still needed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening?
#Microsoft releases next-gen AI chip, stock hits yearly high BTC is currently at $82,715.4, with the lower boundary of the 20-day range raised to 80,400, while the upper boundary remains at 87,399. Additionally, ETFs have shifted from net inflows to net outflows of $214.7 million. The real factor determining the direction ahead is not opinions, but the battle around these three lines. Let me clarify what these three lines are. **First: 80,400 — the lower boundary of the range.** This is the lowest point in the past 20 trading days and also the lower boundary of the cost zone for this rally. Its significance is that breaking below it means the range structure is broken, triggering technical selling pressure and passive risk controls simultaneously. **Second: 87,399 — the upper boundary of the range.** This is the previous high and the level where the market has twice failed to break through; without the support of capital flows, it is difficult to break through effectively. **Third: US Dollar Index 102.23 — the waterline.** It determines the risk budget for the entire process and is the only variable that simultaneously affects BTC, US stocks, and gold. Looking at the current situation against these three lines: the price is 82,715, only about 2.8% above the lower boundary and about 5.7% below the upper boundary; the capital flow channel has just turned negative (ETF 5-day net outflow of $214.7 million); the US Dollar Index is strengthening around 102.23; the Fear & Greed Index has moved from 59 back to 64 (no real panic). The conclusion is: **the downside space is closer than the upside, and there is a lack of capital conditions to stop the decline.** So under what conditions would a reversal occur? I have set three conditions for myself, and meeting two of them counts: **First, ETF net outflows stop and reverse to net inflows again.The RSI just hit 73 in the last 5 minutes, entering the overbought zone. When the price was moving up, the lower timeframe indicators showed no divergence and aligned with the trend. This indicates that the buying power at the low level was sufficient to absorb the morning's downward momentum. However, looking at the 4-hour chart, the RSI is still in the weak zone around 31, and the higher timeframe indicator recovery has only just begun. Now the price has returned to around 2490, right at the 4-hour support level. Although the morning dip pierced this level, it quickly rebounded with volume. This shows that the buying near the 4-hour support held, and the buy orders below absorbed the selling pressure. At this point, I am leaning bullish. The 4-hour support held off the selling, and the 4-hour RSI is still low. The indicator still has room to recover upwards. After the market stabilizes here, it is highly likely to$800,000, a knife, a Rolex.
A guy in the UK was tied up at home, $40,000 was transferred from the main wallet, $720,000 was taken out from the Ledger.
The phone was smashed on the spot.
My first reaction wasn’t sympathy, but puzzlement: Isn’t a hardware wallet supposed to be the safest?
Nothing was lost, no one died, but the wallet was emptied.
What does this mean? It means that no matter how tough a cold wallet is, it can’t withstand someone holding a knife in front of you.
On-chain security is designed to defend against hackers, not the physical world.
No matter how well you hide your seed phrase, if someone makes you say it out loud, will you?
This incident has no impact whatsoever on the price of $SOL, don’t force the connection.
But to be fair, it’s more effective than any security tutorial.
I just want to ask: If someone really stands in front of you with a knife, what do you plan to do with what’s in your wallet?
#Ledger调查新进展：失窃暂集中单一渠道 $SOL The email rang, hurriedly transferring margin from the chain.
A close call, so you must always keep a backup plan.
The manipulative trader keeps messing around,
Before bed, $OKB dropped from 1% to -4%,
$ETH was too weak and led the drop,
$BTC broke below 81000, I sensed something was wrong and quickly locked my position,
Locked it at the lowest point 81000😡,
The manipulative trader took advantage of the interest rate hike and the big drop in Korean stocks due to storage,
pushed the price down, then rapidly pulled it up to prevent people from getting in.
Many woke up to find their positions gone, but the price had recovered.Is the BTC rebound just the beginning? I'm more focused on the upcoming test
$BTC rebounded from 81032 to 83290, $ETH rose from 2409 back to 2505, and $SOL climbed from 101.63 to 107.34.
But I'm not rushing to be bullish. What really deserves caution is not a failed rebound, but that prices have risen while the market environment hasn't improved in sync.
The situation in the Middle East, oil prices, and US inflation expectations may affect the dollar, interest rate expectations, and risk asset sentiment.
There are two possibilities ahead:
① Macro pressure continues, BTC hits resistance at 84000, and ETH and SOL may come under pressure again.
② Macro pressure eases, BTC holds above 84000, ETH breaks through 2516, SOL breaks through 108, and the rebound has a chance to expand further.
My strategy: don't guess the bottom, wait for price confirmation; don't just watch BTC's rise and fall, but also see if the other two coins can keep up.
If BTC breaks through 84000 but ETH and SOL remain weak, do you think this is a bull market opportunity or a risk signal?
#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
Tomorrow night at 8:30, the CPI will be released, and this is the major event that will determine the short-term direction.
Institutions currently expect that with energy prices rising, the overall CPI may increase from 3.4% to 3.7%, and the core CPI month-on-month may slow from 0.3% to 0.2%. But note, yesterday Cleveland Fed President Harker came out hawkish again, saying inflation pressures are quite broad and supporting further rate hikes. However, the market is not buying it at all; CME data shows a 79.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October. Officials are hawkish, the market is dovish, and the two sides are clashing. The greater this divergence, the more volatile the market will be at the moment the data is released.
What’s the impact?
If the CPI blows past expectations, overall hitting above 3.9%, and core month-on-month also above 0.4%, then rate hike expectations will immediately heat up, the dollar and US bonds will surge, and Bitcoin will take a short-term hit. If the data is close to expectations, around 3.7%, with core between 0.2 and 0.3, then the market will continue to fluctuate, grinding you down. If the data is below expectations, the logic for pausing rate hikes will be confirmed, Bitcoin may have a chance to bounce, but don’t expect it to skyrocket, as resistance remains above.
$BTC $ETH First, let's look at the big picture. Yesterday $BTC surged to 84254 but couldn't hold, getting pushed back immediately, with an intraday pullback of over 2%. The reason is straightforward—Brent crude oil soared to $107, the US-Iran situation escalated, and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked, instantly igniting market risk aversion. Even more severe, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5%. Once that goes up, all risk asset valuations have to be recalculated. Tomorrow, CPI and PPI data are due, so no one dares to heavily bet on a direction now. Under this macro pressure, don't just focus on liquidation charts; first understand which way the overall environment is pushing. --- 🔶 $BTC current price 82663, above 84415, 49.12 million short liquidations. Below 81603, 34.26 million long liquidations. But there's a data point you need to notice—within the past 24 hours, the whole network saw $195 million liquidated, of which 73% were longs and only 27% shorts. What does this mean? The longs are being systematically harvested—not retail investors cutting losses, but leverage collapsing.200 million liquidations with long positions accounting for 70%! I'm still holding on, just one step away from liquidation, how about you?
Brothers, as of 8:30 AM on October 13, in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $195 million in liquidations, with long positions liquidated at $143 million (accounting for 73.31%). ETH liquidations topped at $58.14 million (longs 64%), BTC liquidations at $54.89 million (longs 78%); $ZEC, due to aggressive short squeezes earlier, saw a short squeeze backlash, becoming the only coin with mostly short position liquidations.
My positions: BTC long -240%, ETH long -92%, ZEC long -115%, barely holding up with CL short +16%, almost becoming part of that 73.31% "sacrifice."
But I won't cut losses. If CPI cools down on October 14, shorts may cover or face an escape window; if it exceeds expectations, I'll accept defeat and exit. Holding positions is not heroism, but leaving chips before data, decisively admitting mistakes after falsification.
Are you among that 73.31% of long liquidations? Planning to hold until CPI or cut now? The wheel of fortune turns; after longs liquidate, will it be the shorts' turn for $BTC $ETH $ZEC Caught the rebound after the deep drop in Bitcoin, 100x isolated margin small long position, opening average price 2456.47, now floating profit directly 205.7%, the joy of small position speculation has arrived.
Looking at the market, after hitting a low of 2407.50, it quickly pulled back, the 15-minute chart closed with a bottoming rebound, releasing a short-term bearish wave.
However, this is just an oversold rebound, not a reversal.
The key support below is around 2440, which is also the estimated liquidation price; holding this rebound is necessary for continuation; the resistance above is first seen around 2540-2578, which is the previous high and likely to face resistance and pullback.
Playing with a small Ant position is fine, 100x leverage carries extremely high risk, rebound market volatility is large, be ready to take profits at any time, no grand strategy $ETH 📉 ETH sharply dropped from $2,769 to $2,406, then rebounded to $2,580, but the trading volume gradually weakened during the rebound, indicating that buying strength still needs to be verified. 🐋 A whale sold 410 BTC and instead bought 14,341 ETH. Although this may reflect a shift in capital allocation, a whale reallocating does not mean ETH is about to start a bullish trend. ⚠️ The current market still faces three major pressures: 🔹 Crowded short positions may trigger intense volatility. 🔹 Continuous spot selling pressure, with the rebound lacking strong support. 🔹 If ETH cannot reclaim $2,600, prematurely assuming $2,458 is the bottom remains highly uncertain. 📊 Key points to watch next: • $2,458: Can the short-term bottom hold? • $2,600: Can bulls retake this critical level? • BTC: Can it recover lost support to provide stability for the entire market? 💡 Core view: Capital shifting from BTC to ETH does not mean the market has turned bullish. Until there is clear improvement in volume, spot demand, and key price levels, patience is more important than blindly bottom-fishing. #BTC #ETH #STRK #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #Ethereum #加密市场 #市场分析 #风险管理The most frustrating part of trading is never the big drop, but the recovery after the big drop. When the candlesticks keep closing higher one by one, you keep wondering: Is this a reversal? Should I chase? The ones who can resist the urge, dare to buy at the bottom, and hold on are the ones who ultimately profit.
This recent move in Ethereum Classic clearly illustrates this. A few days ago, that sharp plunge created a low point—how many panicked and sold at a loss? Yet the capital flowing in was decisive, with consecutive bullish candles pulling the price from the midline up to near the upper band. The intent to support at the low level was very clear—this volume couldn't have been dumped by retail investors; it was money actively accumulating.
I am optimistic about the direction, but timing matters. Either wait for the price to firmly hold above the upper band and confirm a breakout before following, as that’s when the space truly opens; or wait for a pullback to get an opportunity. The two moving averages below and the midline provide layered support, so as long as the pullback doesn’t break these, it’s a window to buy the dip.
In short: The big picture remains bullish, but don’t get carried away just because of consecutive bullish candles. Wait for confirmation, wait for a pullback, buy when given the chance, and wait if not. Ethereum Classic’s volatility is much stronger than Bitcoin’s, so manage your position size well and don’t let emotions make decisions for you $BTC $ETH 📊 According to data from CryptoQuant, transaction fees currently account for only 0.64% of miners' total revenue. Meanwhile, the estimated electricity cost to mine 1 BTC using an Antminer S19 is about $86,700. ⚠️ What does this mean? 🔹 Mining profit margins continue to narrow: older generation miners face greater cost pressures, and some mining farms may be close to breakeven or even operating at a loss. 🔹 Increased risk of miner sell-offs: if BTC prices cannot consistently stay above mining costs, miners with tight cash flow may be forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover electricity bills and operating expenses. 🔹 Market selling pressure is worth monitoring: if miners sell in concentration, short-term supply pressure may increase, but the actual impact depends on the scale of sell-offs, market liquidity, and buyer demand. 👀 The key question arises: if miners are forced to sell BTC, who will be the buyers? Will it be institutions continuing to accumulate, long-term holders, or funds waiting to enter at lower prices? 📈 A BTC price rebound does not mean mining pressure has been relieved. Going forward, besides watching price trends, it is also necessary to observe miner wallet flows, exchange fund flows, and institutional spot demand. Remember: price increases do not mean all market participants are profiting. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMining #CryptoMarket #BitcoinMiners #BTCAnInflation Judgment Day: CPI/PPI Double Hit, Is the Rate Hike Expectation in Jeopardy?
CPI and PPI are hitting one after another this week, with the US September CPI released on October 14 and PPI following on the 15th. Market concerns about inflation are once again brought to the forefront.
Expectations are not low: September CPI year-on-year may rise to 3.6%, month-on-month 0.6%; core CPI month-on-month 0.3%, PPI month-on-month 0.5%. If realized, inflation is not cooling down but continuing to heat up.
But the subtlety is that the interest rate market has long priced in a "hold steady" stance. CME data shows the probability of maintaining rates in October is over 80%, with less than 20% chance of a hike. There is a clear gap between expectations and data.
So the trading logic is straightforward:
If core CPI month-on-month exceeds 0.3% or PPI surpasses expectations again, rate hike bets will return, increasing pressure on BTC, with 80,000 as a key support.
If core CPI month-on-month is only 0.2% or lower, rate hike expectations will fade, negative factors will be exhausted, and BTC is expected to rebound from 83,000 to 84,500 or even 85,000.
Before the data, don't bet on direction; first see where the market pricing stands. $BTC $ETH $STRK #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Wanyingjie (J) live trading throughout, dedicated to original content, different from the AI writing in the square which is all the same and meaningless
Principal 287👍 currently 6800 👍 withdrawn 1000
Had a Guizhou griddle lunch around noon, about 26u, the taste was not as good as expected
BTC support near 83 mentioned yesterday, once broken it can't hold, currently rose from 81 to near 83, looking at 4h chart it seems to form a small bottom, target remains unchanged, still looking at 92+
ETH is similar, but expected around 3000.
SOL is quite annoying, luckily didn't buy, the drop is still smooth.
ETH and SOL are generally not as strong as BTC
Closing longs and going short prioritizes ETH and SOL
Saw Hynix could still be bought late last night, added a bit today, the fees are really high, wow.
Anyway, buy when the time is right, buying Hynix aiming for a 100-point gain is still easy.
Too many positions, won't say more, anyway BTC 92+ and others will be cleared roughly at the same time.
Buy when the time is right, sell when the time is right, trading requires decisive execution, hesitating won't make money.
Welcome everyone to discuss more
Hope all brothers make big money SanDisk $SNDK's recent drop is really brutal
It was hovering around 1600 earlier, but suddenly ChangXin Memory announced progress in next-generation DRAM technology and plans to launch new products for AI data centers by the end of the year
Wow, the entire storage sector got shocked:
Micron fell, Hynix fell, SanDisk fell even worse, with the stock price dropping more than 9% in two days, now hitting around 1444
The most interesting part is that SanDisk mainly makes NAND, while ChangXin announced DRAM technology, so theoretically they aren't direct competitors
But the market doesn't care, it just sold first 😂
I'm still bearish on SNDK in the short term; after such a drop, the bulls haven't even put up a decent fight
However, after continuous big drops, watch out for a sudden rebound
For those wanting to catch a falling knife, I suggest first seeing if anyone is willing to push the price up a bit
NFA, DYOR!
#SanDiskMicronDrop, ChangXinTechProgressInFocus $BTC
Current price is around 82900. The daily chart is still range-bound; today we first watch for a rebound after support, without rushing to confirm a trend reversal.
1. Support below: 80300-81100
After retesting this range again this morning, it pulled back up; the previous low at 80350 has not been broken. Open Interest (OI) has dropped about 5.8% from the early morning high, and there was no obvious increase during the rebound, which looks more like a deleveraging repair rather than a strong bullish accumulation.
2. Resistance above: 83000-84300
83000 is a dense moving average zone, and 84300 was the actual resistance level yesterday. Touching the moving averages doesn’t mean it should be shorted, but until it breaks through, don’t treat the rebound as a main upward move.
Trading idea: No new positions now. If it retests 80500-81100 and after stopping the decline closes back above 81100 on the 1-hour chart, a small position can be tried for a rebound with a stop loss at 79800 and targets at 83000 and 84300; take profits gradually near resistance, not waiting for round numbers.
Today, wait for a retest; do not chase longs or rush shorts; if 84300 is not broken, continue range trading.
CPI will be announced tomorrow night at 20:30 Beijing time, so keep positions light. Price is reshaping fundamentals—the reflexivity trap of the market. Many think fundamentals determine price, but in the crypto market, price also changes fundamentals. Soros's reflexivity theory is currently playing out simultaneously across three major coins.
$BTC: Negative feedback is interrupted by external capital. Price drops should trigger miner sell-offs, staking liquidations, and ecosystem contraction, forming a self-reinforcing downward cycle. But continuous buying from ETFs and corporate treasuries forcibly breaks this cycle. BTC's reflexivity is neutralized by institutional forces, so it doesn't fall deeply nor rise quickly.
$ETH: Negative feedback is forming. Price drops cause stakers to exit, increasing unstaking supply, further depressing price. Although L2 is thriving, the mainnet's value capture is weak, and ecosystem support is insufficient. ETH needs a hardcore upgrade that can change the supply-demand structure to break the negative feedback; otherwise, it can only rely on the overall market to drive it.
$SOL: Negative feedback has already started. Price drops cool Meme trading, validator income declines, ecosystem activity decreases, further dragging down price. Its high Beta attribute makes this cycle come faster and stronger. SOL needs new positive catalysts, such as an explosion of institutional-grade applications, to reverse the situation.
Once the reflexivity cycle forms, the trend self-reinforces. BTC's cycle is interrupted externally, ETH's cycle is forming, and SOL's cycle has already started. Understanding the reflexivity stage each coin is in is more important than looking at the candlestick chart.