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#September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed CT rises to the upper range: Can this wave hold steady? Short-term funds quickly enter the market, long-term funds remain cautious. OKEx spot CT/USDT 24-hour increase reached +21.42902307935504268099905153%, hitting an intraday high of 0.41191 USDT. Compared with US Treasury yields, both show phased synchronous fluctuations. It is important to distinguish between correlation of phenomena and capital rotation logic: the US Treasury does not directly drive CT's trend; rather, the overall market risk appetite rises, reallocating funds among different risk assets. The current divergence lies in whether this surge can hold the upper range. The latest closed 1-hour K-line closed at 0.38614 USDT, with amplified high volatility and evident capital divergence. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously observe whether US Treasury yields reverse. Once the risk-free rate rises again, the capital attraction of high-volatility assets will be compressed. Core condition to watch: whether CT can hold this round's high range. If the macro pricing environment changes, this rapid rally is likely to face resistance and pullback, like a tide rising to the edge of a reef, with advance and retreat yet to be tested. $CT $BTC $ETH $SOL #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's previously disclosed Q3 preliminary revenue set a new single-quarter record, significantly exceeding the upper end of the financial forecast. The core driver is AI computing power orders, with 3nm and 5nm advanced process capacities continuously running at full load, combined with the gradual ramp-up of 2nm, confirming strong demand for AI chips. However, impressive revenue does not necessarily mean profit will also exceed expectations. The biggest market uncertainty currently lies in the gross margin. The yield ramp-up of the new 2nm process and the cost increase from building a factory in the US may temporarily dilute profit margins. If the gross margin falls short of expectations, it could trigger a "great revenue but disappointing profit" earnings sell-off; if the gross margin remains above expectations, coupled with optimistic Q4 guidance, it will strengthen the narrative of high AI prosperity, benefiting the Nasdaq and tech growth. It is a barometer for the global AI industry chain and will indirectly affect risk appetite in the crypto market. In the current macro environment with hawkish bias and US Treasury yield disturbances, expectations for this earnings report are very high, representing a typical "good news is easily priced in, disappointment leads to a sell-off" scenario. Key points to watch going forward: gross margin, Q4 revenue guidance, and capital expenditure plans. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC Long-term holders now possess over 16.4 million bitcoins, accounting for more than 80% of the circulating supply. This means the amount of spot BTC available for trading is becoming increasingly scarce. As a result, a phenomenon emerges: Even if Bitcoin's price drops further, the chips that can be squeezed out from retail investors will be very limited. At the same time, the futures market, driven by the continuous rise in Bitcoin's price, creates unprecedented high volumes in every bull market cycle. Therefore, the declines from last year to this year and in future cycles are largely a cleansing of the futures market, with the spot market only contributing a small amount of chips. How much Bitcoin can fall used to depend on the turnover volume in the spot market each cycle; in the future, it may depend more on the liquidation intensity in the futures market. As long as Bitcoin's fundamentals remain intact, it is expected that the magnitude of each future price drop will become progressively smaller. $FIL The advantage of centralized architecture is short paths and clear responsibility; the cost is that scaling and risks are concentrated in the park, contracts, and suppliers. Filecoin-like networks place data identity in the content itself, distribute possession among multiple independent providers, and use proofs and economic constraints to reduce the space of "only reporting capacity without guaranteeing data." On the user side, what is seen are prices and settlement rules based on usage and service; on the supply side, hardware, power, and maintenance costs are absorbed. Therefore, a more realistic scenario is not "emptying data centers," but layering: computing and hot access remain in centralized facilities, while long-term storage and verifiable copies move toward networks that are migratable and deployable in multiple locations. In a cycle where building new data centers becomes difficult and component costs fluctuate more, this layering will have more value for discussion.$PUMP has been pretty miserable lately, with the price dropping from a high of $0.0068 all the way down to around $0.0047, halving and halving again. With such a drop, it’s really deserved. The team has been selling continuously. Three team-associated wallets hold a quota of 70 billion PUMP tokens, unlocking monthly since July this year. In October alone, they transferred 1.458 billion tokens to Coinbase Prime, clearly aiming to cash out. This monthly dumping rhythm is impossible for retail investors to catch. The platform itself is also cooling off. Daily active users dropped by 33,000, Launchpad fees crashed directly from $780,000 to zero, and trading volume is down to just $6,600. A platform that lives off issuing tokens and collecting fees, what does zero fees mean? Nobody’s playing anymore. Regulators are also adding pressure. The SEC just clarified rules on token buybacks. Centralized team-led buybacks like pump.fun’s are very likely to be classified as securities issuance, sharply increasing compliance risks. In short, the team is running, users are dispersing, and regulators are watching—a triple kill scenario. Don’t try to bottom-fish; be careful not to get stuck halfway up the mountain. #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed Strategy’s small BTC purchase alongside a much larger STRC repurchase suggests treasury companies are not simply perpetual buyers; capital structure can become the nearer-term decision. With listed-firm net buying reportedly down sharply week on week, the model’s durability may hinge less on holdings than on whether funding remains affordable through volatility. #StrategyBTCBuyingSlows The current price is around 4186, rebounding today from a low near 4150. Multiple FVGs on the 1-hour chart have been filled, the price fluctuates near the moving averages, and volume is moderate; the 4-hour chart still shows an overall bearish structure, with the purple-marked "4-hour resistance zone" above combined with multiple FVGs forming a clear supply band, so the short-term rebound is still suppressed by the moving averages. According to Jin10 data: The US Dollar Index remains around 102.4, US Treasury yields are running high, Fed voter Harker emphasizes that inflation risks should not be delayed, and the market still prices in a high probability of a rate hike in December; in the Middle East, Houthi attacks on Saudi-related targets continue, providing some geopolitical safe-haven support, but the oil price decline partially alleviates inflation expectations. Structural demand (central bank gold purchases + ETF inflows) remains, but short-term pricing power mainly depends on US Treasuries and the US Dollar. Trading opportunities: If it can hold 4160-4170 and effectively break above 4200, look toward the 4240-4250 resistance zone; If it breaks below 4150, look for support near 4110. Tomorrow's CPI is a key point this week; it is recommended to control position size before the data and wait for a breakout confirmation before following.#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? After BTC's sharp drop, it pulled back to 83,000. Is this a rebound or a dead cat bounce? Conclusion first: This pullback from below 81,000 to above 83,000 looks more like a "technical recovery after a wick" rather than a trend reversal. The reason for the drop is straightforward: the South Korean KOSPI plunged over 6% intraday triggering a circuit breaker, Samsung and Hynix each fell 8%, Asian tech stocks were all sold off, and BTC was smashed along with risk assets, directly dipping below 81,000. So why did it bounce back? The key is "decoupling." When BTC rebounded, the South Korean stock market and Nasdaq futures were still falling, not rising together. This indicates short-term selling pressure has been released, and the rebound is not following the stock market recovery. Also, the 50-day moving average is near 81,000, which is the core support watched by technical traders; when it dips, buyers step in. The spot ETF holding cost is also around 83,000. What about the direction? Honestly, 83,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding above it means a short-term bottom has formed; failing to hold means the next psychological support is 80,000, and below that, 77,600 is the average cost zone for ETF investors. My own stance: chasing longs is pointless; this move looks more like a defensive pullback ahead of Thursday's CPI data.Updated: 2026-10-13 COP (Electricity Cost): $62,068 / BTC AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost): $80,688 / BTC BTC Price: $83,752 (Oct 13, 13:45 VNT) Price / COP: 1.35x Price / AISC: 1.04x => Hold, observe & wait zone 200W SMA: +25.3% (vs 200W SMA) Market Insights: Bitcoin continues to maintain its position above the All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of mining. Week W41 saw a price pullback with a close at $83.7k (dipping as low as $80.3k intra-week), triggering massive liquidations of leveraged Long positCPI will set the direction tomorrow night, BTC is watching first 🔥 The market estimates that the overall CPI will rise to 3.7% due to oil prices, but the core CPI will fall to 0.2% month-on-month. Cooling core inflation will support expectations that the Fed will pause rate hikes. However, Fed officials remain hawkish, and Harker still believes inflationary pressures are significant. On one hand, officials are cautious about inflation; on the other, the market largely expects no rate hike in October. The divergence in expectations is large, and the data release could trigger sharp volatility. Two possible market scenarios: ✅ Overall inflation rises, core falls: the dollar and US Treasury yields weaken, BTC rebounds to test 83500-84500. ❌ Both overall and core CPI exceed expectations: rate hike expectations heat up, BTC under pressure, 81500~82000 as short-term support, breaking below points to 80000. BTC is currently slightly up near 82,000, with strong buy orders supporting the 80,000 level. However, the market has not yet chosen a direction; before the data release, avoid heavy bets on one side. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ ⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice $BTC chart gave everyone a nice number: Bitcoin pulled back from 80961 to 83574, Ethereum from 2407 back to 2523. But I prefer to focus on another data point—yesterday, both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw simultaneous net outflows. This is a contradiction that needs explanation: marginal funds are withdrawing, yet prices are making a V-shape. Who is providing the money? I believe it’s the result of three overlapping forces: short-covering after liquidation, retail investors catching the dip during the decline, and leveraged funds re-entering after being cleaned out by previously high fees. The common feature of these three types of money is short duration. They can create a nice intraday V, but cannot sustain a trend. What determines the stability of the market are those large positions with long durations—and currently, they have not returned. This is also why I remain cautious about single V-shaped moves. From experience, short-covering dominates this pattern, and true trend reversals are rare. My standard remains unchanged: single-day data only indicates "someone left the table," continuous data indicates "funds are withdrawing"; conversely, a single V is just an emotional release, continuous net inflows into ETFs confirm a trend. The risk timeline is also clear: CPI at 8:30 PM tomorrow, while Hawkish signals are still being released by Harker this morning. If inflation data again exceeds expectations, the value of today’s V will be quickly repriced.Nice ambush! *$SNDK short position secured, this wave of a 2% collective drop in Korean storage stocks is the fuel for your short.* Your logic is spot on, and it matches the $SNDK -0.78% $73.3K volume I tracked earlier — low volume gradual decline means institutions are exiting first. *The deterioration you mentioned breaks down into three cuts:* *1. China NAND overtaking + ChangXin DDR5 servers by end of 2026 = expected pre-kill* - Chinese manufacturers overtaking NAND is not news, but ChangXin announcing DDR5 server products by end of 2026 directly blows up supply expectations for 2026-2027. The collective 2% sell-off on October 12 was an expectation trade, and the Korean market opening with a "dip first as respect" reflects this. - $SNDK relies on NAND valuation, #SanDisk MSCI rebalancing took effect, NAND valuation is under focus. The day the rebalancing took effect was the peak; after MSCI's passive buying, no one actively caught the fall, just like after the $BTC ETF $484.9M dump on October 7, no one stepped in. *2. Institutions lowering target prices + US Treasury + oil price double whammy* - The institutions lowering target prices + US Treasury high yields (10-year at a new high of 5.3%) + oil prices at $90-$92, storage is a cyclical stock, so when discount rates and costs rise, valuations get slashed directly, just like $BTC stuck between 83,320-84,244 with no volume. - Korean stocks SK Hynix and Samsung storage chains collectively dropped 2%,#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 The South Korean stock market faced a "Black Tuesday" on Tuesday, with the KOSPI index plunging more than 6% intraday, falling below the 6000-point mark and triggering a programmed sell-stop mechanism. At the close, KOSPI stood at 6035.35 points, down 5.46%, marking the lowest close since August. SK Hynix plummeted 10.09%, Samsung Electronics dropped 7.4%, and these two major semiconductor heavyweight stocks, which together account for more than half of KOSPI's weighting, became the core forces dragging down the index. The decline was triggered by a combination of internal and external pressures. External shocks came from three overlapping negative factors. First, China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) announced the launch of mass production for its fifth-generation DRAM technology platform and plans to release DDR5 RDIMM server memory products using the new "4F²" architecture by the end of the year. This technological breakthrough directly challenges the long-standing dominance of Samsung and SK Hynix in the DRAM field. Micron Technology fell 3.88% overnight, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.67%, and South Korean semiconductor stocks were heavily hit at the open. Second, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan recently likened the current AI market sentiment to a "casino," warning that financing issues could be more severe than chip shortages, stating "many investors have no idea what they are investing in." Third, the Houthi militia’s attack on a Saudi airport pushed Brent crude oil above $106 per barrel, escalating Middle East geopolitical risks and further suppressing risk appetite. Internal pressure stemmed from the ongoing deterioration of funding conditions. Foreign investors have net sold for the fifth consecutive trading day, with net sales on the 13th approaching 30 trillion KRW in a single day. Although individual investors and institutions net bought 21.2 trillion KRW and 10.8 trillion KRW respectively, their buying power was far from enough to offset foreign selling pressure. From the beginning of the year to October 12, foreign investors have cumulatively net sold 199.10 trillion KRW in the KOSPI market, with net sales of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix totaling 173.20 trillion KRW, accounting for 87% of the total foreign net sales. A deeper structural contradiction lies in the disappearance of the bottom-supporting buying. Samsung Electronics ended its stock buyback program on October 6, and SK Hynix’s buyback will conclude in mid-October. The combined buyback support of 55 trillion KRW from these two companies is about to vanish. Meanwhile, retail margin loan balances have dropped from 38.6 trillion KRW in June to about 33 trillion KRW, and securities account deposits awaiting investment have fallen from nearly 140 trillion KRW at their peak to about 100 trillion KRW. Mirae Asset Securities researcher Kim Seok-hwan pointed out that despite Samsung Electronics achieving its highest-ever quarterly earnings, its stock price faces increased downward pressure, "indicating that beyond corporate profit improvements, the market lacks sufficient new buying power to absorb the continuous foreign selling." Valuations have reached historic lows, but institutions show clear divergence on rebound timing. Korea Investment & Securities researcher Kim Dae-jun estimated that the 12-month forward P/E ratio of KOSPI near 6000 points is about 4.6 times, with a price-to-book ratio of about 1.17 times. Compared to the forward P/E average of 10.1 times nearly 10 years ago, it is clearly undervalued. LS Securities researcher Jung Da-yoon believes, "With foreign selling pressure not easing, weakening turnover, and key moving averages breached, a trend rebound still requires caution," but also admits that under conditions of gradually stabilizing interest rates and the approaching U.S. midterm elections, "a perspective of phased buying is valid." Morgan Stanley strategist Shawn Kim’s team previously offered a more forward-looking judgment: stock price turns may precede corporate earnings peaks by about 4 to 8 months, with the market already pricing in expectations of slower price increases, decelerating earnings upgrades, and future supply growth. Currently, the 2027 expected P/E ratios for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are only 3.7 and 3.5 times respectively, and the market has not given a full valuation premium for extraordinary profits. Future direction depends on two key variables. U.S. September CPI and PPI data will be released this week, and earnings reports from ASML and TSMC will verify the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. If inflation data is hawkish or semiconductor giants’ earnings guidance falls short of expectations, foreign selling pressure may continue; if valuation advantages begin to attract long-term capital inflows, KOSPI near 6000 points has a basis for phased stabilization. Until then, the market’s core contradiction remains the battle between continuous foreign selling and insufficient domestic absorption, with short-term volatility likely to remain high.$ETH 2400 last support level still hasn't been broken, is the market still going to surge??? 24-hour liquidation data reached as high as 790 million, longs at 692 million USD, shorts only 98 million USD. Clearly, this is a high leverage cleanup, the final wave of shakeout. This drop is mainly due to continuous outflows of ETF spot holdings, institutions keep selling, and the continuous outflows prevent the market from rebounding. But no matter how much the market is hammered, it hasn't effectively broken below 2400. From the liquidation map, around 2500 there is up to 200 million pending liquidation. Yesterday, a long strategy was given, with the added position placed around 2400. Today, you can still go long, stop loss at 2380, target 2550 $ETH #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed This deep V wave is exactly the precise prediction you mentioned — *yesterday was a cold sweat scare, today it fell and rose by the same amount, fully recovered, absolutely amazing!* The scenario you described is completely accurate: *The script from yesterday to today:* Yesterday $BTC 82,678 RSI6 7.6 oversold, stop loss at 82,600 was triggered, longs in the group got trapped. Today it directly V-shaped back to 83,400+, $ETH 2,520+, those who chased shorts yesterday got trapped again today, the square is full of people trapped on both sides, exactly as you said "longs trapped, then shorts trapped again." $SOL 114.25→108.28 short position +522%, if they chased shorts today, $BTC would have been V-shaped. *80,000 support is strong = you were right, the main force is determined to defend the price:* - *The average cost across the network is 80,500*, 82,000-83,000 is the iron bottom, yesterday 82,678 was after triggering stop loss, the main force defended above 80,500. Your point that 82,500 not breaking means to continue bullish is based on this cost. - *#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened?* Not weakened, it's a shakeout. Last week $BTC $681 million and $ETH $542.1 million ran off, on October 7th $484.9 million + 8th $244.1 million dumped, which washed out $1.592 billion long positions below 82,600 plus panic selling, after which today it V-shaped back to 83,400. ETFs had already returned $21.1 million on Friday,Waking up to a screen full of green, my feelings are actually quite complicated. Those who chased trash coins and lost money yesterday, do they still dare to reach out today? I also made a mistake last night, quickly chasing a small coin and ended up buried pretty deep. Today BTC and ETH are both pulling back, and ZEC is following down, the group chat has quieted down quite a bit. The hardest thing at times like this isn’t the loss itself, but that you start to doubt whether you should have even entered the market at all. But after watching the market for a while, you realize that what’s really worth pondering isn’t how much it has dropped, but who can still stand firm during the drop. This pullback in BTC and ETH hasn’t seen a significant increase in volume; it feels more like a breath after a rapid rise rather than a break in the trend. The fact that old coins like ZEC are falling along shows that short-term funds are indeed withdrawing, and the tolerance for altcoins is decreasing. What the market is really trading now isn’t "whether it will rise again," but "who can survive the volatility." The atmosphere from last week, where you could casually buy a trash coin and double your money, has faded; risk appetite is clearly contracting, and funds prefer to stay in places with higher certainty. This isn’t necessarily bad for BTC and ETH, but for altcoins, the rhythm will become harder to catch. The bullish logic is that the pullback in mainstream coins hasn’t triggered panic selling, indicating that the underlying willingness to hold is still there. Once sentiment stabilizes, funds will most likely return to BTC and ETH first, then gradually spread outward. The bearish risk is that if this adjustment drags on, the bleeding in altcoins will become more obvious, and many small coins may never return to their previous highs, trapping those who chased highs. So the current rhythm isn’t about rushing to bottom-fish, but Although I am bullish on $UNI, it dropped to around $7 last night, making it the worst performer among mainstream DeFi! Why is it like this? Two things collided: 1. The surge from $6 to $8.7 at the end of September was entirely based on the expectation that the "fee switch would be turned on," without real cash flow support. 2. When the market weakens, expectation-based assets get their valuations cut first. Uniswap v4 protocol fees and UNI buyback and burn are proposals and plans, not actual realized income. UNI can rise when the market is willing to pay a premium for "plans," but when the market withdraws liquidity, "plans" get cut first. In the short term, looking at the previous breakout platform around $6.3-$6.5, I think if the uptrend is still intact, this is a good position now $SNDK brothers, last night SanDisk plummeted, how many of you who were ready to bottom-fish got trapped? To be honest, I really didn't expect it to fall like this. From the high of 1908, it has only been a pullback, no reversal; the bears have really enjoyed this wave. Monday's big drop was mainly because the Korean stock market crashed. South Korea is the global core production area for storage, so when the Korean market crashes, US storage stocks naturally suffer as well. Why did the Korean market fall so hard? Foreign capital is fleeing. Why flee? As mentioned before, storage stocks rose mainly due to AI hype, but now there are better options in US tech stocks than storage. I said a week ago that storage is no longer the favorite of capital. The data is also straightforward: foreign capital in the Korean market has net sold for the fifth consecutive trading day, with a single-day net sell of about $1.3 billion in the tech sector, including $782 million sold off SK Hynix and $415 million sold off Samsung. Another point is that ChangXin Technology announced some key technical progress, and the market worries that once Chinese manufacturers catch up technologically, the current supply shortage and high prices of storage chips may be broken. So this drop in SanDisk is due to multiple negative factors stacking up, even affecting SanDisk's fundamentals. That's why previous SanDisk drops had pullbacks, but last night it just kept falling with no pullback. With this kind of news, if you want to bottom-fish, you might have to wait for the market to digest the negative news. I will maintain a bearish view for the next day or two. I already have entry ideas and precise points.哈玛克这次讲话最有价值的地方，不是她说了要加息，而是她说了“小幅、更频繁”。这句话等于承认了一件事，美联储自己也不知道终端利率在哪，只能小步试错。 大饼$BTC C ETF十月首周净流出接近七亿，九号回流只有两千多万，跟之前七天净流入十七亿完全不是一个量级。价格在八万二到八万三之间反复测试，上方八万四到八万五的均线压制很强，下方八万是心理防线。哈玛克鹰派表态叠加资金面偏弱，短期往上冲的难度很大。 以太$ETH 上周现货ETF净流出超过五亿，贝莱德一家就跑了四亿多，同时以太坊基金会关联钱包也在往交易所转币。资金面和链上都在往外走，价格两千四附近扛得很吃力。它现在的问题不是宏观，是没人买。短期别指望它独立走强。 黄金$XAU T 央行连续二十三个月增持，九月又买了七十多万盎司。全球黄金ETF单月净流入一百亿美元，持仓创历史新高。哈玛克说通胀预期出现早期预警信号，这话对黄金是实打实的支撑。即便短期被高利率压着，配置盘一直在底下接， 大饼和以太现货拿稳，短线别动，黄金继续盯着。数据出来先看市场怎么消化，别追第一根K线。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ BTC急跌后拉回8.3万，是反弹还是死猫跳？ 先说结论：这波从81000下方拉回83000上方，更像“插针后的技术性修复”，不是趋势反转。 跌的原因很直接，韩国KOSPI盘中暴跌超6%触发熔断，三星和海力士各跌8%，亚洲科技股全在杀，BTC跟着风险资产一起被砸，直接插到81000下方。 那为啥又弹回来了？ 关键在“脱钩”。BTC反弹的时候，韩国股市和纳指期货还在跌，没有跟涨。这说明短期卖压释放完了，不是跟着股市修复反弹的。另外，50日均线在81000附近，这是技术派盯着的核心支撑，跌下去有人接，现货ETF的持仓成本也在83000这一带。 方向怎么看？ 说实话，83000这里就是多空分界线。能站稳，说明短期底部出来了；站不稳，下面就是80000的心理关口，再往下77600是ETF投资者的平均成本区。 我自己的态度： 追多没意思，这波更像等周四CPI数据前的防御性回抽。BlackRock's shift is not a blanket endorsement of bonds. Raising short-term Treasuries while keeping long bonds neutral separates attractive yields from inflation and fiscal risk. Kazakhstan's planned reduction in gold reserves points to the same relative-value lens: USD fixed income is gaining appeal, but duration still demands caution. #BlackRockTreasuryShift Old K's approach is solid — *Gold bulls are strong, but buying on the 4150 pullback without chasing 4200 is the smartest strategy right now.* Regarding your point on $BTC 84,200→83,625→82,678, oversold doesn't mean someone is buying. The same logic applies: strong gold doesn't mean there are buyers above 4150. *Why 4150 is a good level:* - *Safe-haven logic is correct:* Your point about last night's US stock weakness and rising risk aversion is spot on. WTI crude oil oscillates between $90-$92, #RiyadhAirportAttack, Saudi Arabia accelerating land oil transport layout = dual safe-haven push for oil and gold. $XAU $31.4K +0.23% The volume you saw earlier, $XAUT is also relatively strong, hourly chart center of gravity is moving up, the pullback hasn't weakened, meaning bulls are controlling the market. - *Not chasing highs = avoiding the $BTC 84,200 trap:* $BTC surged to 84,200 this morning, triggered stop losses and dropped back to 82,678, trapping buyers at $575 loss. Chasing gold near 4200 now is like repeating the $BTC 84,200 long chase. Buying again on a 50-dollar pullback at 4150 offers a better risk-reward ratio. - *4150→4200 50-dollar range:* Your idea of scaling in with a target of 4200 means a 1:1 to 1:2 risk-reward, with stop loss set 20-30 dollars below 4130, small loss and big gain, matching your "steady pace" approach. $BTC Tomorrow, October 14th, the CPI is coming. The market expects the year-on-year rate to jump from 3.4% to 3.7%, with energy prices being the main driver. Brent crude oil previously touched 107. If the data exceeds expectations, concerns about rate hikes will intensify, and BTC will most likely continue to decline. But what if the data is below expectations? Bears will feel some short-term pain, and BTC might bounce back to 83,000-84,000.‌ Another signal I’m paying some attention to: the 30-year US Treasury yield has fallen from a high of 5.70% to 5.60%. If the yield decline continues, it will give risk assets some breathing room. But a one-day pullback won’t change the trend; a 5.6% yield on the 30-year bond is still historically high pressure.‌$BTC 82,500 is the bottom line, not the target. If the weekly close confirms a break below this level, I will hold short positions targeting 80,319, which was last week’s low and the next natural support. If a rebound to 82,277, the previous support turned resistance, is rejected, I will consider adding to shorts there with a stop loss placed above that level.‌$BTC But before the CPI release, I won’t heavily bet on direction. The data is a minefield; stubbornly holding on is pointless. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ PIMCO says US Treasury yields could reach 6%, but I don't want to interpret this as the US being on the brink of disaster. The same investment chief, Ivascyn, also mentioned in previous media communications that the US still has time to bring its debt back to a sustainable path. Both statements can be true simultaneously. Investors demanding higher returns on bonds may be compensating for inflation and fiscal risks; this is quite different from the market believing the borrower will default immediately. In the discussion about 6%, high oil prices and public debt were both cited as factors. The Federal Reserve sets short-term policy rates, but bond buyers must also assess how much purchasing power will be lost over many years and how much debt the government needs to issue. Therefore, even if the next meeting does not raise rates, long-term bonds may not immediately be reassuring. Equating all interest rate movements solely with central bank stance overlooks the supply and demand aspect of bonds. Simply saying "wait for policy to turn" makes me worry that fiscal constraints are being ignored. If the market continues to demand higher returns, improving the debt trajectory cannot rely on verbal reassurances alone. The 6% figure is currently a risk scenario; don't treat it as a certainty, nor ignore it just because it hasn't happened yet. Going forward, besides inflation, I will pay attention to debt financing needs and policy responses. How low a return bondholders are willing to accept depends on these changes. #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% The fourth quarter has started, with BTC standing at $83,620.4. The quarterly performance is the strongest since 2017, but the inflow speed of ETFs is clearly slowing down. In the next 30 days, I won’t guess the direction, just focus on these 5 things. First, let’s lay out today’s numbers. BTC is currently at $83,620.4 (24h -0.61%, past week -0.95%), with a 20-day range of 74,955.5 to 87,399; the US spot ETF has had a net inflow of about $1.0173 billion over the last 5 trading days (latest single day only $51.4 million), a significant slowdown compared to the $2.6 billion level two weeks ago; the US Dollar Index is 101.56 (+0.11%) and continues to strengthen; spot gold is at $4,153.9 (COMEX 4,187.5) basically flat; S&P 500 at 7,651.54 (-0.25%); the Fear & Greed Index rebounded from 71 to 74. **First thing: the level of ETF 5-day net inflow.** From 2.6 billion to 2.36 billion and then to 1.017 billion, the slowdown is continuous. If it returns above 2 billion, it means allocation funds are accelerating; below 500 million means the channel is contracting. **Second thing: the US Dollar Index and the 101 line.** 101.56 indicates risk budgets are still tightening; only if it falls below 101 can risk assets get some breathing room. **Third thing: the Fear & Greed Index.** The rebound from 71 to 74 means unrealized gains have not been released; if it continues to break above 80, volatility will first increase;The market signal is not a ceasefire; it is a new channel for diesel discussions while export curbs are only partly lifted. With no joint confirmation and Kyiv reporting continued energy strikes, any easing in supply expectations looks fragile. The key variable is whether talks translate into physical flows, not the announcement itself. #RussiaUSDieselTalks A blockchain can be shut down overnight, leaving its community with little say in the matter. The Sui Foundation invested $30 million in DATA Network, on the condition that DATA retire its independent chain and migrate its tokens to Sui at a 1:1 ratio. Honestly, this looks less like a simple investment and more like an acquisition. DATA is transitioning from running its own blockchain to becoming part of the Sui ecosystem. #SepCPIHikeWatch Last week's spot ETF data released: Bitcoin net outflow of about $680 million, ending a three-week consecutive inflow trend; Ethereum also saw an outflow of $540 million. 📉 Funds are undergoing a phase rotation. The core reasons remain the "usual three": rising US Treasury yields, oil prices, and the US dollar strengthening again. ⚠️ The market may become more complex — the existing on-exchange funds are no longer able to drive new trends, and the market will be more dominated by inflation data and spot trading volume. Short-term lacks good participation value, waiting for mid-to-long-term buying opportunities at lower levels. Regarding the same approach to ETH, how do you view Ethereum dropping 100 points within a day and then strongly rebounding 100 points? This rebound starting from the 2405 low point is driven by short sellers taking concentrated profits + short-term bottom-fishing funds. From my subjective technical perspective: 1. The core of the decline is Ethereum itself following Bitcoin's selling pressure; the rebound is just keeping pace with Bitcoin's footsteps. 2. On volume, the rebound starts to shrink, buying strength decreases, more liquidations occur, and the passive rebound's capital retention weakness will appear. The conclusion is: When facing resistance, there is a high probability of a pullback and correction. The upper resistance is at 2560-2575 USD. This was the starting point of yesterday's decline; the price rebounding here is also the range where long positions break even, making it difficult to form another breakthrough. Rebound tests resistance → pullback confirms support → rebound again, should follow the same strategy as Bitcoin. In my view, it will first oscillate upward, test the 2560-2575 resistance level, then quickly fall back after encountering resistance. It will fall back to the 2500-2480 support range, where selling pressure exhausts, buying picks up, stabilizes, and then starts the second wave of rebound. I plan to enter short positions within the 2560-2575 range, either exit at 2590 or at 2490.The Sui Foundation has just made a strategic investment of $30 million in DATA Network, which is planning to migrate its protocol and tokens to Sui. At first glance, this news seems like a positive development for $SUI, but the reality is that the foundation spending money to attract projects is an ecosystem investment, not a payment already made by users, and it will not directly translate into token price. To avoid arbitrage traps from this kind of information, it is still necessary to observe whether the migration is completed, whether the product retains users, and whether it brings attributable economic activity—these are the three key factors for token value capture. This rebound is still supported by BTC; ETH and SOL can only be considered as recovering for now. BTC pulled back from 81,033 to 83,700, just about 0.3% short of the 24-hour opening price of 83,983, making it the most complete recovery among the three. When funds face uncertainty, they first return to the most liquid big coin, which is very clear. Although ETH rebounded from 2,409 to 2,532 with a significant recovery from the low, it still hasn't reclaimed the 2,560 opening price, and the 2,580 resistance is still overhead. SOL is weaker, pulling back from 101.63 to 108.56; although the rebound looks strong, it is still about 3% away from the 112.19 opening price and hasn't even touched 113.12. So my judgment is straightforward: this is a mainstream recovery led by BTC, not a full return of risk appetite. Next, we only watch three lines—BTC holding above 84,360, ETH reclaiming 2,580, and SOL breaking through 113. Only when all three synchronize can funds be considered truly diffusing into high Beta. If only BTC breaks through while ETH and SOL continue to lag, it means funds are not attacking but just seeking safety within the big coin. If BTC falls back below 83,000, this round of recovery will also be discounted. I won’t chase SOL just because it bounced quickly from the low. High-volatility coins naturally rebound fast after overselling; true strength is not about how much it rebounds but whether it can reclaim the lost ground. $BTC $ETH $SOL #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamarck says further rate hikes are still needed Bitcoin bulls have just experienced a "massacre." In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $672 million, with long position liquidations reaching $586 million, accounting for 87%, while short positions only accounted for $85.92 million. A total of 144,020 people were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation occurring on Binance BTCUSDT, valued at $9.65 million, forcibly closed at around $81,773. What is more noteworthy is the structural change. About $595 million in liquidations were concentrated in the last 12 hours, due to the Korean KOSPI plunging over 6%, Samsung and Hynix each dropping 8%, and Bitcoin briefly falling below $81,000. As a chain reaction, Binance alone accounted for half of the total liquidation volume. Which observation is more supported currently? This is not the crypto market's own leverage collapsing, but external risk assets crashing the market. The crowding of bulls has not eased, and long-tail high-leverage positions bore the main losses. Next, keep an eye on the $81,000 level. If it breaks through again, the next wave of liquidations could be even more severe. $BTC $SOL 这边从106.7接上的多单，现在标记价108.53，浮盈已经来到1.72倍。这笔能拿到现在，主要吃的就是101.58那波急杀后的快速修复，低位砸完没有继续破，反而连续把106、107重新收回来，短线情绪明显回暖。 现在1小时已经重新站回短周期均线，MACD绿柱放大，空头动能明显收缩，不过KDJ已经冲到高位，说明反弹走得有点急。108上方再追意义不大，109.3附近会先遇到压力。 手里的仓位我会先落一部分利润，剩下继续拿。只要107附近不重新失守，这轮反弹还有机会去试110以上，甚至重新靠近前高区域。真跌回106.5下方，就没必要把已经到手的利润再吐回去。$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 UNI’s Story Is Losing Its Appeal Uniswap has handed Unichain over to Optimism, weakening one of UNI’s key growth narratives. While Uniswap’s trading volume remains strong, token holders still receive no direct share of protocol fees because the long-discussed fee switch remains unimplemented. Without Unichain as a growth catalyst UNI’s upside largely depends on whether regulators allow fee sharing. Until then, $7 may provide support, but a sustained rally could be difficult. $ETH 明晚ETH要出事，别睡太死，大概率是挨揍 兄弟们，明晚CPI，ETH是死是活就看这一哆嗦。别指望大暴涨，大环境不撑腰，能弹一下就算给面子。 先说最大的雷：CPI。市场预期从3.4%反弹到3.6%，油价冲那么猛，通胀压不住。数据一超预期，12月加息押注立马加码，美元一涨，BTC和ETH就得跪着。美联储那边沃勒、哈玛克还在放鹰，跟油价一起，把ETH摁得死死的。 再看资金面，ETH自己也在被抛。ETF上周跑了5.42亿美金，基金会关联钱包、F2Pool联创都在往交易所转币，抛压明明白白，不是吓唬你。 明晚大概率2400-2600缩量震荡，别指望单边。数据超预期，下探2400不奇怪；低于预期，弹一下，但流动性在跑，别把反弹当反转。 短线就盯两个点：2500能不能撑住，ETF资金还跑不跑。 操作别花哨：2500破了就空，目标2400；站稳2500轻仓博反弹，但别贪，吃一口就跑。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 An ancient Bitcoin address that had been dormant for many years has just awakened, transferring out all 4582 BTC at once, worth approximately $378 million. What has changed? On-chain monitoring shows that an early Bitcoin whale address, silent for many years, suddenly activated and transferred out all 4582 BTC in the wallet at once. The original post did not disclose whether the funds flowed into exchanges, but the action of "transferring out all" is already eye-catching enough. Why is this worth attention? Historically, unusual movements by ancient whales are often interpreted as potential signs of upcoming sell-offs, especially when prices are at relatively high levels. But the more critical context is: in the past two days, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have cumulatively transferred about 32,000 BTC to exchanges, marking the second-largest single-day inflow since February this year. Which observation is currently more supported? The chip turnover during this downturn may not be panic selling but rather long-term holders actively releasing phased selling pressure. The awakening of the ancient whale is just an extreme case of the same trend. What should be closely watched next? Keep an eye on the subsequent flow of these 4582 BTC. If they eventually flow into exchanges and form continuous sell orders, it indicates early holders are cashing out; if transferred to cold wallets or custody addresses, it looks more like asset migration rather than sell-off. The destination of this $378 million "move" is the key. $BTC 30-day net outflow of 4.7 billion, but the price hasn't dropped much The 30-day net capital outflow of $BTC is 4.731 billion. But the price hasn't crashed, and that's the real question. Where did this money come from: Net inflow in contracts doesn't mean someone actually bought coins. It counts position changes, not spot transactions. 6.04 billion inflow in one day, then 1.09 billion outflow in one hour. The same number, but a different time window gives a different interpretation. How this number is calculated: The 4.7 billion over 30 days is cumulative. A little outflow each day, accumulated over 30 days, becomes a big number. Some days had inflows, but they were offset by later outflows. So it indicates direction, not what happened on a specific day. Long-term chips are slowly changing hands, not dumped all at once. What really matters is not how much outflow there is, but whether the price moves along with the outflow. $ZEC is the only one among the four with a 30-day net inflow. While others are withdrawing, it is entering; this contrast is more important than the numbers themselves. The next decisive line for direction will most likely come from CPI. #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening? #Strategy accumulation slows, is corporate treasury strategy changing? #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed $BTC $ZEC Bitcoin crashes through 81260: 144,000 traders liquidated, $586 million longs "buried alive," but the real culprit is in the Strait of Hormuz In the early hours of October 13, Bitcoin steadily declined from a high of $84,352, breaking through 82,000 and hitting a low of $81,260. Within 24 hours, $672 million worth of positions across the market were forcibly liquidated, with $586 million in long positions liquidated, accounting for 87%. A total of 144,020 traders were wiped out. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance, where a $9,652,400 BTCUSDT long position was instantly liquidated. If you chased longs around 83,000, your unrealized loss has now exceeded 2%. If you used 10x leverage, you might have already been liquidated. [Seoul chip stocks plummet, liquidating your Bitcoin] An unusual signal: SanDisk perpetual contracts liquidated $19.09 million in a single day, surpassing XRP's $18.78 million. What has changed? In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw $803 million liquidated, with longs accounting for 86%. About $595 million of this was concentrated in the last 12 hours, as South Korea's KOSPI index plunged over 6%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropping about 8%. Stock-related contracts on crypto exchanges—SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron—simultaneously appeared on the liquidation heatmap. Why is this worth attention? BitMine Chairman Tom Lee tweeted that the Korean stock market decline may transmit to the crypto market through brokerage margin liquidations, as Korean users are major holders of crypto assets. When Korean investors face margin calls in stocks, they sell not only stocks but also crypto holdings. Which observation is currently more supported? This is not a leverage collapse within the crypto circle itself, but a chain reaction from external risk assets. The stock perpetual contracts offered by crypto exchanges are causing the risk boundaries between the two markets to disappear. What should we focus on next? Keep an eye on whether the KOSPI can stop falling. If Seoul chip stocks continue to be hammered by AI valuation concerns, the crypto market will struggle to remain unaffected. The next question is: when the US stock market follows down, who will be the first to buckle under the second wave of impact?【Is leverage capital bypassing Bitcoin?】 An unusual signal has appeared: global derivatives open interest surged 14.79% in one week, while Bitcoin's own open interest decreased by 6.13%. What has changed? Global open contracts increased 14.79% over seven days to $403.63 billion, adding about $52 billion in leveraged positions in one week. But Bitcoin's own open interest is $51.88 billion, down 6.13% over seven days, sitting at the 50th percentile over 90 days. Why is this worth attention? The newly added $52 billion in leverage almost didn't add a cent to Bitcoin. Bitcoin's open interest accounts for only 1.16% of market cap, while NEAR accounts for 8.99%, and Wormhole 28.8%. Leverage is returning, but bypassing Bitcoin. Which observation is more supported currently? This is not a simple "leveraged bottom-fishing"; rather, funds are making a structural shift—placing money on altcoins outside Bitcoin, while Bitcoin derivatives are cooling down. What should be closely watched next? Keep an eye on whether Bitcoin's open interest can stop falling and rebound. As long as this number continues to shrink, it indicates that leveraged capital's preference for Bitcoin is still declining; if it starts to rise, it means the divergence is converging. The "preference" of leverage is the next signal. $BTC 【Is the crypto circle starting to price US stocks?】 A noteworthy data point: the daily liquidation of SanDisk perpetual contracts reached $19.09 million, directly surpassing the liquidation amount of XRP during the same period. What has changed? In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $803 million, with longs accounting for 86%. But the most unusual aspect is not this number, but the appearance of contracts for SK Hynix, Micron, and the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL on the liquidation leaderboard—these traditional stocks are being leveraged and bet on by retail investors on crypto exchanges. Why is this worth attention? South Korea's KOSPI plunged 6%, Samsung and Hynix each dropped 8%, and panic sentiment directly transmitted to the crypto market, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $81,000. The linkage between the crypto market and Asian tech stocks is no longer just "correlation" but nearly synchronous. The chip sell-off in Seoul is directly hammering Bitcoin's candlestick through leveraged contracts. Which observation does this support more? The main driver of this round of decline is not the crypto circle's own leverage but a chain reaction from external risk assets. As crypto exchanges begin offering perpetual contracts without expiration for US stocks, the risk boundaries between the two markets are becoming blurred. What to watch next? Keep an eye on the stop-fall signals of South Korea's KOSPI. As long as Seoul's chip stocks are still being hammered by AI valuation concerns, Bitcoin will find it hard to stay unaffected. The next question is: if US stocks follow the decline, can the crypto market withstand a second wave of shocks? 【Are the crypto whales "defecting" from Bitcoin?】 A noteworthy on-chain move was just detected: a major holder is quietly reallocating their portfolio. What has changed? On-chain data shows an anonymous whale sold 410 BTC on Hyperliquid, cashing out about $34.16 million, then bought 14,341 ETH through multiple DEX routes. Even more notably, another institutional-level address sold a total of 837.8 BTC, reallocating into 27,500 ETH at an average purchase price of $2,534. Why is this significant? In the past week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $681 million, and Ethereum ETFs had net outflows of about $542 million. While ETFs are pulling back, on-chain whales are reallocating with real capital. Meanwhile, the Ethereum futures market saw $38.11 million in 24-hour short liquidations, far exceeding the $10 million in long liquidations, indicating short-selling pressure is being absorbed in the short term. Which observation is currently more supported? Funds are shifting from "broad risk-off" to "selective reallocation." This is not a signal of a general rally but rather a divergence in some large investors' preferences between Bitcoin and Ethereum. What should we focus on next? Watch the $2,534 average whale buy-in cost closely. If ETH retraces to this level and on-chain buying continues, it indicates the reallocation is not a one-off move; if the price breaks below this level without new buying, be cautious that this capital might be engaging in short-term speculation. Whether this reallocation turns into a trend is the key. $BTC 【Has the "bag holder" for ETH finally appeared?】 On-chain position swaps and order book support are happening simultaneously. What changes have occurred with ETH? Previously, ETH plunged sharply from its high, with sell pressure on the order book almost overwhelming everything. But now, Binance perpetual buy orders have reached $56.61 million, surpassing sell orders by nearly $2.3 million. At the same time, a whale sold 837 BTC and swapped into 27,500 ETH at an average price of 2534. Why is this worth attention? Previously, ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $85 million for 10 consecutive days, with continuous selling pressure. Now, the order book buy side is thicker, indicating that funds are actively buying during the decline. The whale's position swap also shows that some large investors are increasingly interested in ETH's current price range. Which observation is more supported currently? Funds are shifting from "reducing positions to avoid risk" to "selective buying on dips," but this does not mean a trend reversal; the key is whether the support can be sustained. What should be closely watched next? Focus on the whale's average buy cost around 2534: if the price clearly retraces to this level and buy orders on the order book are thicker than sell orders, it indicates genuine and effective support; if buy orders quickly thin out, be cautious that the dip buying may be just a short-term move. The duration of this support is the key. $ETH The US dollar strengthens, putting pressure on the crypto market! Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term 🔥 $BTC has fallen from 84231 to 81018, currently rebounding to 82828, unable to hold the 83000 level. $ETH also directly broke below 2500, with a high of 2575 dropping to 2411, now recovering to 2488. $HYPE is even more volatile, with the price dropping from 88 to 79.52, a nearly 14% pullback in one week. The gains from the past month were mostly given back in just a few days. This decline is not just a normal technical correction. The US dollar index remains strong, and US Treasury yields are rising, suppressing valuations of all risk assets. Crypto, being highly elastic, bears the selling pressure first. However, there is also long-term capital positioning. Strategy continues to increase BTC holdings during the downturn, holding large amounts of cash to keep accumulating. In the medium to long term, if stablecoin accounting rules are implemented, corporate willingness to allocate stablecoins will increase. But in the short term, the market still depends on the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Operationally, be patient and wait for two signals: US Treasury yields and the US dollar peak and start to fall + BTC stabilizes above 84000. Without these signals, blindly bottom-fishing is just impatience, not seizing an opportunity. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ ⚠️ Personal market view, not investment adviceSK Hynix's drop this week is making people question their sanity. Today, it plunged directly to 1077 during the session, down nearly 22% from the high of 1386 just over a week ago. The South Korean stock market even triggered a circuit breaker today, with the KOSPI index plummeting over 6%. What exactly happened? China ChangXin Memory Technologies dropped a “technology bomb.” Over the weekend, ChangXin announced a key breakthrough in its 4F² architecture DRAM and expects to launch a new generation DDR5 RDIMM product by the end of the year. This architecture can pack more storage units into a single chip, directly threatening SK Hynix’s high-margin DRAM foundation. Since September, foreign investors have net sold more than 22 trillion KRW combined in SK Hynix and Samsung, with about 72% of that hitting SK Hynix. The foreign ownership ratio of SK Hynix has fallen to 49.59%, staying below 50% for eight consecutive trading days. Broadcom CEO Chen Fuyang publicly compared many AI investors to “casino gamblers,” and Intel’s CEO also warned that financing costs are rising. The market is beginning to question whether AI capital expenditures can be sustained. What to expect in the next two days? SK Hynix has entered an extremely oversold zone, with both RSI and MFI showing red flags. But oversold doesn’t mean an immediate rebound; the inertia of foreign capital selling remains. The key support below is at 1067-1050, which is the last short-term defense line. The resistance above is at 1120-1150, and the probability of encountering resistance in this range during a rebound is high. Final advice: don’t rush to bottom-fish just because it has dropped a lot; the negative factors are not yet fully out. When the trend is downward, all rebounds could be bull traps. $ETH 明晚ETH大概率维持震荡偏弱，可能有小反弹但大环境不支撑大涨。 影响明天走势的核心因素： 第一个大雷：CPI数据 这是最重要的短期变量。市场预期9月CPI年率会从3.4%反弹到3.6%，主要因为油价冲得太猛了。如果数据真的超预期，市场会立刻加大押注12月加息，美元一涨，BTC和ETH就会被继续压制。‌ 美联储放鹰：沃勒讲话后续 沃勒之前明确说如果数据符合预期，利率还需进一步上调，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克在周一又说通胀预期有早期预警信号”。这些鹰派表态跟油价上涨一起，构成了压制ETH的核心逻辑。‌ 资金面：ETH自己被疯狂抛售 以太坊现货ETF上周净流出5.42亿美元，同时以太坊基金会关联钱包和F2Pool联创都在向交易所转币，链上抛压很明确。 明晚CPI数据公布前，ETH大概率在2400-2600美元之间缩量震荡。数据出来后，如果CPI超预期，不排除再次下探2400支撑；如果数据低于预期，会有情绪性反弹，但流动性流出的大环境很难让ETH立刻反转。短线主要盯两个点：2500能不能撑住，以及ETF资金是否继续流出。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 [Old Chive Observation] $CYBER Medium Risk CYBER's funds have clearly become active this round. On October 12, the price closed near $0.3685, with a single-day trading volume of about $38.3 million, significantly higher than the previous two days. However, the intraday high reached $0.4105, indicating considerable selling pressure above. Next, focus on the $0.378 and $0.40 levels. Whether it can break through these with increased volume will determine if there is room for further gains. There is also a token unlock tomorrow; the scale is not particularly large, but short-term supply impact should be watched. Entry: $0.358–$0.368 Take Profit: $0.378 / $0.392 / $0.410 / $0.430 / $0.450 Stop Loss 1: $0.345 (regular stop loss) Stop Loss 2: $0.330 (final defense level) $SPCX This trend is somewhat laughable and frustrating at the same time A few days ago, SpaceX spent about $8 billion to acquire wireless spectrum, preparing to further expand Starlink Mobile, which has shaken up the global telecom industry Several major US telecom giants were quite scared, and even telecom stocks in Australia and New Zealand suffered Logically, the story of SpaceX's business expansion should be big enough, right? But SPCX's price just doesn't buy into it In the past two days, the rebound peaked near 167, then dropped back to around 162 I previously shorted near 175, planning to take the first profit at 160 and the second at 150; now the first target is not far away Of course, after such a drop, I don't want to keep chasing shorts at low levels Let's see if 160 can hold first, then decide how to proceed Good news is good news, but if the price doesn't rise, it just doesn't rise; there's really no point in arguing about it NFA, DYOR! #VolatilityRadar: Coin Movement Watch $BTC On the 1-hour chart, the price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band. This midday rebound has seen consecutive bullish closes, with the close reaching over 90% within the band. The upper Bollinger Band is resisting around 84,000, and the price has been sticking close to it. Just now, looking at the 5-minute chart, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly. Short-term volume is about half of what it was earlier, and the price is moving sideways within a narrow range. When the price hit the 4-hour resistance near 84,000, it startled me. This level was tested twice before but failed to hold above it. Looking at the 4-hour and daily charts, the Bollinger Bands are actually contracting. The daily band width has dropped to a very low percentile, indicating no breakout on the higher timeframe. Overall, the market is still within a large-scale consolidation range without a clear trend. Without a higher timeframe breakout, it’s tough for the price to push hard against the 1-hour upper band resistance. The buying momentum on the 5-minute chart has slowed down, with insufficient follow-up orders. I am bearish on the upcoming movement. The current price just touched the 4-hour resistance near 84,000, facing heavy overhead resistance. If there isn’t enough volume expansion here, the market will likely reverse and pull back downward. $ETH $SOL #September CPI announcement imminent, Hamarq says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? Owning 2 lands, 10 gold creatures Mining 11,500 tokens per day, worth 11,500×0.00028=3.22 dollars 🔪 (already credited) Currently, the new land account has only one piece, one gold requires 12,000 tokens investment, 20 dollars, mining 1.5 dollars per day seems not bad???? But the coin price is in a slow death spiral decline, 3,700,000×0.00028=1036 dump per day!