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ASML also has a business easily overshadowed by the EUV order headlines: servicing and upgrading already installed machines.
In Q2, this segment's revenue was €2.762 billion, nearly 30% of the total quarterly revenue. Management also said that Q2 revenue and gross margin exceeded guidance, mainly benefiting from this business performing better than expected. It may not be as exciting, but it's money already earned and visible in the financial statements.
Looking at this earnings report, I want to know if this growth can continue. Customers wanting to increase output can either buy new machines or upgrade existing equipment. Both types of spending can make ASML money, but they affect customer cash budgets and production timelines differently. Focusing only on new equipment purchases risks missing additional investments on existing production lines.
However, services and upgrades cannot be packaged as non-cyclical income either. Equipment usage and customer budgets influence demand; concentrated upgrades in a single quarter cannot simply be multiplied by four to represent an annual norm. It needs to be judged whether the growth in service is due to a larger installed base or a batch of customers buying upgrades at once, and the sustainability thereafter.
I have no doubt about the technological status of lithography machines. But "important status" does not explain profits every quarter. Besides listening to future EUV demand this time, I also want to see how the company continues to make money from machines already delivered. Don't skip this page of the report.
#ASMLearningsPreview: EUV orders are the key focus 看懂昨日BTC深V震荡逻辑就通透了！日内先因多头集中清算引发快速下杀，超17万人爆仓，多单清算规模占据绝大部分。
随后市场完成流动性回补走出反弹，但本轮回升仅属于技术性修复，并无增量资金进场，绝非趋势反转信号。后续再度回落，核心是机构ETF买盘持续疲软，缺少有效承接支撑盘面。
当下市场呈现三大核心结构变化：其一，顶级巨鲸持续囤币，持仓总量稳步走高，ETF资金也由净流出转为小幅净流入。其二，市场资金格局彻底分化，机构资金逆势加杠杆布局，散户却持续撤离，筹码正加速向大户集中。
最关键的是MSTR财库标的彻底失去市场溢价，其持仓BTC市值远超公司自身市值。过去两年大火的美股发股购币模式，如今迎来估值折价，这也是本轮周期最关键的趋势转折信号。#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC New York Fed President Williams' dovish remarks
Williams' role is quite special; he has a certain degree of relative independence.
He is the only FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) member who is not a member of the Federal Reserve Board.
He is a regional Fed president but the only permanent voting member in the Fed's decision-making.
Williams believes there might be one more rate hike this year, but no further hikes will be needed next year.
This is already very dovish; the wording for a rate hike is "possible," while the wording for no rate hike is "not needed."
Especially with Wednesday night's CPI data, Brother Feng previously predicted it would not exceed expectations, particularly the core CPI monthly rate expected at 0.6%, which might be lower than expected.
Williams' dovish remarks, combined with possibly lower-than-expected CPI data, could lead to a small rebound.
But Brother Feng will not go long; he's tired of gambling. He has added some altcoins and $SKHY spot positions.three coins, three moods
$BTC 83600, up 1%. The entire semiconductor sector crashed so badly, yet it quietly turned green. ETF net outflows last week were the largest in three and a half months, institutions are redeeming, but the price bounced back from 82900 — indicating someone is buying at the bottom, not retail investors. HarmakIt is currently the accumulation phase, not the rally chasing phase. When large institutions transfer coins to exchanges, does that count as a prelude to dumping? On October 13, BlackRock's ETF address transferred 860 BTC (about $71.54 million) and 52,488 ETH (about $131 million) into Coinbase Prime. Onchain Lens first detected this move, and later that day ETF fund data confirmed it: Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $65.4 million, all from IBIT; Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $85.43 million, with ETHA contributing $75.1 million. The interesting point is that Coinbase Prime plays two roles simultaneously: it is both the custodian for BlackRock's ETF and an institutional trading desk. So this transfer cannot simply be read as "about to sell"; it may just be a routine portfolio adjustment within the subscription and redemption process. But the market fears not the truth, but the narrative. When on-chain activity and fund outflows collide on the same day, sentiment fills in the rest of the story on its own. Cross-market linkage is the real main focus this week. Against the backdrop of a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, risk assets are generally under pressure; crypto is not an independent market but is being driven by macro factors. The simultaneous bleeding of BTC and ETH ETFs indicates that institutions are reducing beta exposure rather than rotating within the sector. At times like this, altcoins usually suffer more because capital is not searching for the next narrative but is shrinking exposure. There is also a bullish path, such as Tonight's CPI data superficially shows gasoline pushing up the nominal numbers, but what the market really focuses on is the core CPI month-over-month 0.2% threshold.
Gasoline soaring to $4.33 per gallon is a supply-side disturbance; the Federal Reserve cannot change its pace based solely on oil prices. What truly determines whether there will be action in October and the direction of funds is the core month-over-month figure excluding oil prices. As long as the core month-over-month stays at 0.2%, the logic for pausing rate hikes holds, allowing liquidity to breathe; once it jumps above 0.3%, the market will instantly ramp up rate hike expectations again.
Institutions appear to be debating October policy, but in reality, they are repricing chips for the terminal rate in the second half.
If the core month-over-month lands at 0.2%, trading logic will quickly shift to "inflation remains under control," U.S. Treasury yields will pull back, the dollar will stop rising, and tech stocks and risk assets will see liquidity recovery.
If the core month-over-month surges to 0.3%, the secondary transmission through airfares, hotels, and diesel means inflation is spreading through the chain. At that point, not only will the probability of a rate hike in October soar, but the long-term yield curve will also rise overall, pushing the 5.2% high in U.S. Treasury yields even higher, and high-valuation assets and leveraged funds will face a second round of compression.
Don't be distracted by the headline CPI number; the only thing deciding whether funds scramble to buy or sell off is the core month-over-month. Keep a close eye on this data and its real-time linkage with U.S. Treasury yields; following the funds on the right side is the safest move.
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 This ETH rebound is a carefully orchestrated trap.
Don't be fooled by the bullish candle at 2537.
From 2739 crashing down to 2405, then rebounding to 2537, and now turning down again—this is not bottoming, it's the bears digging a pit for the bulls.
You think the correction is over? No, this is the last struggle before a crash.
The real risks are hidden in two places most people haven't noticed.
First, the liquidation line for the whales is at 2445.
A whale holding $252 million worth of ETH longs has a liquidation price right at this level.
If the price dips a bit more, forced liquidations will trigger, causing a chain reaction that can't be stopped.
Meanwhile, an OG whale has liquidated 9,618 ETH held for 9 years, taking profits of $24.21 million.
Another institution sold 52,000 ETH through Galaxy Digital OTC.
These people are exiting at this level for a reason.
Second, buying pressure is disappearing.
BitMine holds about 6.016 million ETH and, after nearing its 5% holding limit, announced it will stop regular purchases.
The market has lost a predictable large buyer. Last week, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $542 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone outflowing $477 million.
Since September 29, cumulative net outflows have exceeded $780 million. Money is leaving, people remain—guess who's buying?
I entered a short at 2689, now at 2504, floating profit 68.69%.
Volume is shrinking, rebounds are weak, every rally is an opportunity to add to your position.
Target 2300, consider taking profits when reached.
The market never lies; you just choose to believe the lies.
When the trend is down, don't be the hero swimming against the current; those who follow the trend prosper.
$BTC
$ZEC
#September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence to be resolved
#Korean stocks rebound narrows after sharp drop, can semiconductor buying continue? SOL TO THE MOON? SKYAI JUST SOLD HALF THE BAG. 💀
Crypto influencers keep selling you the dream of institutional adoption. Meanwhile, SkyAI reportedly dumped 1 million SOL — roughly half its treasury.
The company says it needs the cash to buy back its own shares. Fair enough. But apparently, even corporate SOL treasuries have bills to pay.
And here’s the awkward part: the SEC filing and the company announcement report different remaining SOL balances — around 600,000 vs. 1 million SOL. $LAB challenge: turning 100u into 10,000u
Slight pullback, about -1% drop in 1 hour, following BTC's volatility
The overall trend is still bearish
Retail investors: the vast majority of accounts are long (account count 4.8 times)
Retail investors are collectively bullish, but a few large short holders have heavy funds, which is a typical bull trap structure for small-cap coins#After the sharp drop in Korean stocks, the rebound narrows, can semiconductor buying momentum continue? After a significant intraday plunge triggered a circuit breaker in Korean stocks, a corrective rebound appeared, but the rebound weakened toward the close. The main drivers of the recovery were memory semiconductors like Samsung and SK Hynix, representing a technical oversold bounce after the sharp decline.
The core concerns behind this sell-off are twofold: first, the breakthrough in ChangXin's 4F² DRAM technology has led the market to price in long-term competition, raising fears of compressed profitability and pricing power for Korean memory manufacturers; second, executives from Broadcom and Intel have indicated that AI capital expenditures may tighten, compounded by the Fed's hawkish stance and high U.S. Treasury yields, leading to continued foreign capital outflows.
A key point: the narrowing rebound indicates that active incremental buying is not strong. At this stage, it is mostly short-term bottom-fishing funds and domestic capital stepping in, with no clear reversal of foreign capital's persistent selling pressure. HBM long-term contract orders remain solid, and the short-term fundamentals have not collapsed, which explains the recovery; however, doubts about mid-to-long-term competition and AI capacity expansion expectations remain, making a direct trend reversal unlikely.
Transmission to risk assets: Korean memory is a crucial link in the global AI computing power chain. If this rebound is just a pulse and buying momentum fades, it will likely face renewed pressure, dragging down Nasdaq tech sentiment and indirectly suppressing high-beta assets like BTC, ETH, and others.
Key points to watch going forward: whether foreign capital shifts from selling to buying, HBM order guidance, and DRAM spot prices. Only with foreign capital inflow and improved expectations will this rebound sustain; otherwise, it is likely just a bounce followed by further weakness. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $TRUTH 24h +43.7%，这种盘我只看不下手。
两小时里它干了两件事：
先砸到 0.015647，再冲到 0.023348，
中间 +49.2% 的空间，上下止损各扫一遍。
一根 1h 线吃掉全部，双向收割。
现价 0.021921，站在 24h 区间 82.9%，
离最高点 6.5%，离最低点 +46%。
在 MA20（0.0186）上方 17.7%，早已脱轨。
真正让我停手的是量：
那根爆拉 1h 打了 698 万，
现在这根只剩它的 27%，近一小时 15m 量比 0.6x。
可 OI 反而从 137 万翻到 246 万，+79.6%。
钱进来了，价不涨、量还缩——拉高派发的样子。
我的看法：不参与。
0.023348 没放量站上之前，反弹一律当反抽；
下方 0.018 一线是爆拉线最低点也是 MA20，
破了这段结构就废。
振幅 55.6% 的币，赢面不在追高那一头。
让它自己走，方向出来再说。
（非投建议 盈亏自负）One of the most annoying things about buying coins on-chain: your order hasn't been executed yet, but bots have already seen it.
The "encrypted trading pool" launched by Aptos these days aims to solve this problem.
Simply put, it hides the transaction details first, then decrypts and executes after confirming the order, reducing the chances of bots seeing orders early, front-running, and sandwich attacks. Petra Wallet already offers an option to encrypt transactions on a per-order basis.
However, it protects the transaction details before execution; addresses and Gas fees are still visible, and transactions become public after execution.
Those who frequently swap coins on-chain should understand that fees are a cost, and being sandwiched is another. Sometimes even if the direction is right, profits are eaten up significantly by these losses.
I’m willing to pay more attention to this feature. Next, it depends on how smoothly wallets integrate it and how much it can actually help users reduce losses. $BTC From the contract liquidation data, the current market leverage game has obvious characteristics. The upper $87,700 is a concentrated liquidation area for high-leverage shorts, requiring only a 4.75% rise to reach; the lower $78,100 is a concentrated liquidation level for longs, needing a 6.75% drop to trigger.
The upper liquidation zone is closer to the current price, meaning that if a short-term upward move occurs, it is easier to trigger short covering, and passive buying will help push the price up quickly. However, this short squeeze is mostly a short-term pulse, with strong explosive power but weak continuity, so it should not be directly regarded as a trend reversal signal.
On the downside, once it breaks below $78,100, a chain liquidation of longs will amplify selling pressure. There are also liquidation supports at $76,000 and $67,600 below; concentrated short positions also exist at $87,900 and $93,100 above. Liquidation points only reflect market leverage congestion, not trading signals. Contract volatility is intense, so position control is essential.
#September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution In the complete Farside data, on October 12, the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows of $65.4 million and $85.4 million respectively. Outflows do indicate that the capital absorption performance of these products on that day was weak. However, the table only lists the fund names and amounts, without telling us whether the sellers were pension funds, investment advisors, or ordinary accounts. ETFs are just a tool for holding assets and cannot automatically label each buyer or seller as an institution. To verify holdings of certain institutions, one must look at disclosures like 13F filings; the SEC requires these quarterly reports to be submitted within 45 days after the quarter ends. They record holdings at the quarter's end and do not provide real-time information on who pressed the sell button on any given day. We have become too accustomed to assigning capital an authoritative identity and then guessing its long-term stance. When inflows occur, we say institutions are optimistic; when outflows happen, we say institutions are exiting. Who sold? Actually, we may not know either time. This round of synchronized outflows is worth tracking, but I am more concerned about whether subsequent redemptions will expand to more products and how long they will last. To judge whether demand for these products has weakened, continuous records are needed; to determine if a certain type of institution has changed its allocation, holding evidence is required. Don't treat capital flow tables as$NEAR and $ZEC currently have the best liquidity among altcoins. One has a 24-hour trading volume of 197 million, the other 179 million. Their liquidity even surpasses that of the traditional mainstream coin $SOL. For my own medium to long-term altcoin holdings, I pay special attention to liquidity. The better the liquidity and the larger the trading volume, the more likely the project is to enter a main upward trend. Many altcoins may spike 50% in a single day, but if their trading volume is only a few million U, they cannot create a huge wealth effect. Therefore, liquidity is the primary criterion for altcoins held heavily in the medium to long term. Currently, both ZEC and NEAR are controlled by a single operator. When ZEC is pumping, NEAR rests; when NEAR is pumping, ZEC rests. The market trends alternate between them.开篇先认：昨天早盘判偏空，证伪线是站回 82,500。今早 BTC 报 83,261，线被踩穿，这笔我认。 隔夜有分歧：BTC 从 81,867 拉到 84,166 再回 83,261，+1.68%；ETH +2.66% 报 2,502，SOL +3.08% 报 107.19。但 BTC 费率转负（-0.0019%），现货涨了，永续多头连利息都不愿付，这波反弹资金不买账。 我的判断：今晚 20:30 美国 9 月 CPI（预期环比 +0.6%、核心 +0.2%）之前，BTC 大概率在 82,800–84,166 磨。核心 0.2% 符合预期，10 月暂停加息坐实，今晚看摸 84,500；核心 0.3% 以上，回测 81,600–82,000。证伪写死：数据前先跌破 82,500，这篇直接作废，明天开篇认。 恐惧贪婪 55。等数据的举个手？Conclusion first: It was a premature move, but it didn't win the race — tonight's CPI is the real judge. BTC rose from $81,568 yesterday to a high of $84,166, closing at $83,540, a single-day increase of +2.57%, with a trading volume of $478 million. It looks like a rebound, but it hasn't broken through the 14-day moving average at $83,903, stuck below the resistance zone. This is the meaning of "premature move": funds bet on a rebound before the CPI but didn't dare to push the price past the key level. Look at the structure. Spot price is $83,540, perpetual contracts are aligned, no de-peg. Open interest is about $2.415 billion; funding rate is slightly negative (-0.00228%). Note this detail — price is rising, but the funding rate is negative, indicating this rebound is not driven by leveraged longs pulling hard; leveraged longs haven't even entered yet. The structure is clean, but it also shows the "confidence" in the rise comes from spot premature moves, not contract consensus. Look at the position. Currently at $83,553, above the 7-day moving average ($82,938), but below the 14-day moving average ($83,903), and the 30-day moving average is $83,026. The 14-day high is $87,238, the 14-day low is $80,400. In other words, it is stuck between the 7-day and 14-day moving averages, direction undecided. Market cap is $1.68 trillion, ranked number 1. On-chain valuation, MVRV Z-Score remains in the neutral to low zone, not overvalued at the top — this supports the mid-term bottom, but the short-term direction is entirely determined by today$BAT BAT has nearly doubled in this wave, but after scouring Brave's official channels, there isn't a single new announcement. The money driving the price isn't in the hands of the bulls; it's on the shorts' tab.
Let's clarify the starting point first. In August, BAT fell to a historic low, even breaking below the price from its 2017 issuance year, making it one of the old coins swept into the corner. Now it has increased nearly two and a half times in a month, almost doubled in a week, with trading volume expanding to eight or nine times the usual. Things bouncing up from the floor naturally have more elasticity than those mid-air.
What truly reveals the structure is on the contract side. The price keeps rising, yet the perpetual funding rate remains negative—shorts are more crowded than longs and continue paying longs. This means one thing: the fuel for the rise isn't new money; it's shorts being forced to liquidate. Liquidation itself is buying pressure—the more it rises, the more shorts cover; the more they cover, the higher it goes.
The narrative side isn't empty either. Brave's July roadmap changed BAT from "reward for watching ads" to "the attention payment layer for the AI era," spanning hot topics this year like intelligent micro-payments and creator copyright compensation. The problem is these are still on the planning stage; none have launched yet.
This kind of pulse in an old coin happened exactly the same last round: it surged to $0.28 in December last year, then dropped nearly 80% over the following eight months. What determines whether this time is different isn't the increase, but whether, after shorts cover, anyone actually comes to use it.
$0.28 was the ceiling reached this week; the $0.05 August low was its origin. The entire middle range depends on the mood of the funding rate.Today's market focus is undoubtedly the upcoming release of the US September CPI data. Currently, the rebound in energy prices, volatility in AI-related stocks, rising oil prices, and long-term US Treasury yields could all push overall inflation higher. For $BTC, we need to pay closer attention to three specific things:
First, how much does the actual data differ from market expectations?
Second, is there a synchronous change in core inflation? If overall inflation is mainly driven by energy, the market's interpretation might differ from a broad rise in service prices and core inflation.
Third, after the data release, how do the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets react? If the data is high but the market has already priced it in, prices may not continue to fall; if the data meets expectations but is accompanied by rising yields, the market may reassess the interest rate path.
Therefore, Ajian views the CPI as a checkpoint to test market expectations rather than a reason to pre-determine direction. Especially since volatility may amplify around the data release, it is crucial not to ignore position sizing and stop-losses just because of a breaking news item #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 DOGE少有人提的硬伤：近期市值超130亿美元、前十，但70%成交量集中在两家交易所，Binance独占超1/3。
大市值币中很反常：市值大，流动性却高度集中，做市商不愿铺到长尾平台。平时无感，头部所订单一薄，滑点就比同市值主流币差——看似买龙头，实际只买两所深度。
年内跌60%，近月0.11→0.084，贴30日区间下沿。Meme热度退潮，旧叙事讲完，新叙事未到。0.08关键整数支撑，0.09上方阻力。两所以外量不起来，价格弹性就得打折。DOGE少有人提的硬伤：近期市值超130亿美元、前十，但70%成交量集中两家交易所，Binance独占超1/3。
大市值币里很反常：市值大，流动性却高度集中，做市商不愿铺到长尾平台。平时无感，头部所订单一薄，滑点就比同市值主流币差——看似买龙头，实际只买两所深度。
年内跌60%，近月0.11→0.084，贴30日区间下沿。Meme热度退潮，旧叙事讲完，新叙事未到。0.08关键整数支撑，0.09上方阻力。两所以外量不起来，价格弹性就得打折。Is the chip stock sector's recent desperate rebound a true bottom buy or a bull trap to push prices higher?
At the start of trading, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged sharply, mainly due to two negative factors: first, rumors that OpenAI's actual annualized revenue is far below previous market expectations, causing investors to reassess the input-output ratio of AI hardware investments; second, rumors of breakthroughs in domestic memory technology, shaking market confidence in the semiconductor cycle.
However, funds violently pushed prices up during the session, significantly narrowing the sector's losses. Previously deeply fallen stocks like $INTC, $AMD, and $MRVL all rose over 1% against the trend, and even $NVDA, $AVGO, and $TSM turned positive.
This is not just a simple technical rebound; behind it lies capital game theory.
▶️ Valuation rotation and defensive hedging
The main leaders of the rebound are those that had fallen deeply earlier or offer better cost performance, such as INTC and MRVL. Major funds no longer blindly chase high-flying top stocks but are moving toward undervalued areas like self-developed chips and network connectivity.
▶️ Low-level positioning ahead of key earnings reports
This week, $TSM and $ASML will release earnings. The early session plunge was a risk-off move, but the strong low-level buying revealed that long-term funds are reluctant to leave the AI main theme, seizing the opportunity to build positions before earnings.
Looking ahead, semiconductors are unlikely to surge to new highs in the short term; a wider range of volatility is more probable. In this new phase of strict market scrutiny on AI investment returns, capital is shifting from hype to selecting solid performance, and choosing the right niche sector is far more important than watching the overall market.
DYOR Brave the world! Just charge!
I thought 2406 was the short-term bottom, but the rebound completely fizzled out at 2505, not even reaching the edge of 2538.
This is no reversal; it's clearly the last trap set by the main force for the bulls.
Look at the ETH/BTC rate, it's dropped to an unbearable level, with all funds fleeing to Bitcoin for safety.
Take another look at the mainnet Gas fees, they're so low it’s like they’re free. On-chain activity has dried up to this extent, demand has collapsed, so what supports the price?
From 2538 to 2550 above are all trapped positions; every rally is pushed back down.
92% of retail traders are shorting, yet the price still can’t rise, which only shows the bulls are weaker than the bears.
I’m holding my short at 2490, and above 2500 is an opportunity to add more positions.
Defense is set at 2540, with the first target at 2400; if it breaks, it will head straight to 2300.
As the ancients said: A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall.
Knowing the wall is about to collapse but still standing underneath waiting to die is not bravery, it’s foolishness.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#After the sharp drop in Korean stocks, the rebound narrows; can semiconductor buying continue? 看懂昨日BTC深V震荡逻辑就通透了！日内先因多头集中清算引发快速下杀，超17万人爆仓，多单清算规模占据绝大部分。
随后市场完成流动性回补走出反弹，但本轮回升仅属于技术性修复，并无增量资金进场，绝非趋势反转信号。后续再度回落，核心是机构ETF买盘持续疲软，缺少有效承接支撑盘面。
当下市场呈现三大核心结构变化：其一，顶级巨鲸持续囤币，持仓总量稳步走高，ETF资金也由净流出转为小幅净流入。其二，市场资金格局彻底分化，机构资金逆势加杠杆布局，散户却持续撤离，筹码正加速向大户集中。
最关键的是MSTR财库标的彻底失去市场溢价，其持仓BTC市值远超公司自身市值。过去两年大火的美股发股购币模式，如今迎来估值折价，这也是本轮周期最关键的趋势转折信号。#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $COMP
Compound helped define on-chain lending, then watched newer protocols take the spotlight. That's the interesting tension: it is a pioneer with a proven model, yet pioneers don't automatically keep market share. Governance participation and fresh product development will decide whether COMP stays relevant or becomes mostly a historical reference point.Korea’s chip rebound still needs proof.
KOSPI jumped more than 2% shortly after the open on Oct 14, then faded to a 0.47% gain by around 10:20 am KST. Foreign investors were still net sellers, so this was an intraday bounce, not a confirmed recovery.
The context matters.
· KOSPI closed down 5.46% at 6,035.35 on Oct 13, its sharpest drop in nearly two months
· Samsung Electronics fell 7.39%, while SK hynix dropped 10.09%
· Foreign investors sold more than KRW4.5T of KOSPI shares, with selling concentrated in the two chip giants
· Institutions and retail investors were net buyers, but that did not stop the index from sliding
· The Korea Exchange triggered a sell-side sidecar, pausing affected program sell orders for five minutes after a sharp move in KOSPI 200 futures
A sidecar slows a category of automated orders. It does not fix the forces behind the selling.
The Oct 14 rebound was uneven. Samsung and SK hynix were up 1.08% and 0.69% around 10:20 am, but both had given back stronger opening gains. KOSDAQ was down 1.26%, showing that buying had not spread.
That is the key point: AI demand, chip-stock leadership and a durable recovery are not the same signal.
For confidence to rebuild, the market needs more than bargain hunting. Watch whether foreign selling eases, whether memory pricing and margins support earnings, whether roadmaps turn into shipments, and whether buying expands beyond the largest semiconductor names.
For crypto markets, this is worth monitoring, not overreading. Korean chip weakness can feed into global risk appetite, especially when AI stocks drive so much positioning. But it does not prove that BTC or ETH must follow KOSPI lower. Crypto still has its own flows, leverage and catalysts.
The cleaner question is whether this is a short reset in the AI trade, or the start of a broader confidence test.
What would make you trust the rebound first: foreign flows, chip earnings, or broader participation?
#KOSPIReboundFades $SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX $MKR
MakerDAO's rebrand toward Sky changed how people talk about the protocol, but the core business is still issuing a decentralized stablecoin backed by collateral. A growing share of that backing comes from real-world assets, which brings steadier yield alongside new counterparty and regulatory considerations. Token migration details add another layer to follow.Bitcoin surged to 84 but failed to hold and dropped back below 83, yet its market dominance is close to 60%, indicating that funds haven't flowed out but are still extracting liquidity from altcoins.
In the past 24 hours, out of 729 million in liquidations, bulls have borne 592 million, showing that leverage cleaning is far from over. The fix for XRP's infinite minting vulnerability only prevents systemic risk but doesn't change the macro contraction.
OP is currently priced at 0.1538, with MACD showing a high-level death cross. Active sell volume is 112.45K versus buy volume of 60.54K, indicating bearish momentum dominance. Just hiding in the shade to analyze liquidation charts, heavy short liquidations are pressing between 0.162 and 0.165, while around 0.140 there is liquidity for longs. The main force will likely first push down to trigger stop-losses and clear leverage; chasing longs at this level is like fueling the fire.
Therefore, do not chase the highs; buy in batches on pullbacks between 0.146 and 0.149, set stop loss at 0.1375, and take profit initially at 0.1615, with a breakout target at 0.1685. If 0.148 on the four-hour chart doesn't hold, cancel low longs and wait for liquidity clearance near 0.140 before acting.
$OP
#ASML Earnings Preview: EUV Orders Are the Key Focus
@OKX Planet Dogecoin ETF delisted in less than a year: Is it a community issue or a product issue?
Today, the first Dogecoin ETF stopped trading. From launch to termination, it lasted less than a year.
Many people asked me what this means. Here's the conclusion: it's a product issue, the community is not to blame.
Let's look at the numbers. Before shutting down, this ETF had only $726,000 in assets, not even enough to fill a whale's wallet. The issuer's CEO made it clear: traditional investors who buy funds and those who use coins on-chain are two completely different groups. To translate: it's not that no one wants Dogecoin, it's that the packaging didn't reach the right hands.
Now for comparison. The week of October 5, the $DOGE ETF still had $16.2 million in total assets, with a net inflow of $3.5 million over three weeks. Demand is not zero; the door was just installed in the wrong place. Traditional buyers look at allocations, while community users are used to buying spot on-chain themselves. This "custody bridge" goes nowhere on either end.
When I bought my first Dogecoin in 2015, there was no ETF. I spent a whole night figuring out how to register, withdraw coins, and back up private keys. We ordinary folks are used to holding our own keys. So when a product that holds on our behalf shuts down, I feel no real shock—honestly, I was startled when I saw the news this morning, thinking it was a big deal, but after seeing the numbers, I just laughed. This morning I said the rebound lacked volume and no money was coming in. After just reviewing the ETF data, my face hurts a bit — BTC and ETH actually turned positive, but don’t rush to celebrate. The volume for ETH is basically negligible, while SOL is still being heavily drained.
First, about $BTC: On October 13, the spot ETF net inflow was $21.47 million. BlackRock IBIT bought $8.05 million, and Fidelity FBTC bought $12.6 million, ending the continuous net outflow. The volume isn’t large, but the direction is right; institutions are starting to tentatively buy at this level.
Next, $ETH: Yesterday’s net inflow was $10,100, so small it’s almost negligible, but this is the first positive inflow after 10 consecutive trading days of outflows. Grayscale ETH and Fidelity FETH are buying; although the volume is very small, it at least indicates selling pressure has temporarily stopped.
$SOL: I need to correct my morning statement. On October 13, SOL spot ETF net outflow was $94.61 million, and on October 12 it was also $62.89 million. I previously thought SOL funds were the most stable, but looking at the data, it has actually been bleeding continuously, showing less resilience than imagined.
My view: Institutions’ attitude toward BTC and ETH has shifted from retreat to tentative inflow, but SOL is still being drained. Money hasn’t massively entered the market; it’s just opened a small channel for BTC and ETH. I remain out of the market and will wait to see if BTC’s ETF inflows continue after the U.S. stock market opens tonight. Only then will there be a chance to break through 84,000.
#September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence awaits resolution #SanDisk and Micron Decline, ChangXin Technology Progress Draws Attention
The storage sector has really taken a hit these past two days. Micron closed down 3.88% on Monday, SanDisk even worse, dropping 5.97% in a single day, with six out of seven consecutive days closing in the red. Micron has retraced nearly 20% from its June high, just one step away from entering a technical bear market. Things are even worse in South Korea, where the KOSPI plunged 5.5%, Samsung fell over 7%, SK Hynix broke 10% intraday, and foreign investors net sold $1.3 billion from the tech sector in a single day.
The reasons for the decline are straightforward: a catch-up drop after the South Korean holiday, and the early halt of the $40 billion buyback programs by Samsung and SK Hynix, all short-term sentiment factors.
But what really unsettled the market was the bombshell dropped by ChangXin Memory. Over the weekend at the Chiplet Conference in Shanghai, ChangXin announced a key breakthrough in their 4F² architecture, planning to launch DDR5 RDIMM server memory by the end of the year. This will still use their self-developed VSG vertical surround gate transistor combined with hybrid bonding technology. The 4F² cell area is one-third smaller than the current mainstream 6F². Samsung’s similar solution reportedly won’t be ready until 2028, so ChangXin is making a significant leap.
Back to our own situation. This storage crash is closely related to miners—DRAM and NAND prices directly affect mining machine costs and the hardware expenses of storage networks like Filecoin and Arweave. Currently, Micron’s fundamentals are actually strong, with HBM orders exceeding capacity, but the market is already pricing in the risk of oversupply in 2027-2028.
$SNDK The kitchen ceiling at Daran burned through three layers, yet the fire on the stove never went out for a second—the top three layers of that big pot at Daran were lit, but the Saudi Ministry of Energy came out with a statement saying "no casualties, no interruption in production or exports." This is Michelin-level crisis PR speed: the plates are polished bright, and the burnt smell is held back from spreading.
What I fear most when cooking isn’t the open flame, but "looks fine." When the oil pan smokes and you don’t move the spatula, it stays quiet until the whole pot ignites. This dish right now is exactly like that: the airport was hit, energy facilities were hit, and the fuel depot in Yemen across the way was blown up, yet Brent crude slipped 0.9% down to $105.69 a barrel, while WTI actually rose 0.4% to $94.14. One burner is turning down the heat, the other is turning it up—this isn’t calm, it’s just that the timing is off—both bulls and bears are waiting for that thermometer.
The real key is at the serving window. Saudi says it will increase the capacity of the Persian Gulf bypass pipeline, meaning they’re opening another serving channel in the kitchen, but at the Red Sea corridor, someone is still flicking a lighter at the door. The pipeline is the backup stove, shipping is the main stove, and if the lid on the main stove’s pot is lifted, the issue isn’t just price hikes—it’s rewriting the entire menu. Oil fields, refineries, export terminals—these three are the bones, meat, and blood of this pot of crude broth. The bones are still simmering, the blood hasn’t spilled yet, but the knife beside the cutting board hasn’t been sheathed.
Now for the mix. Mainstream crude assets are the main course—solid and reliable, they write the heat of 105 and 94 into the broth; while $xMSTR, a linked token to US stocks, is the "complex spice" on this table—its aroma is real and quick to enhance flavor, but its scent depends entirely on the steam from the main course. When the main course’s fire goes out, the spice cools first. When this geopolitical hot oil is poured in, energy stocks, shipping, airlines, and insurance pots will smoke first, and tokenized assets will just amplify the smoke threefold and send it right to your nose.
As for leveraged contracts? That’s my jar of extra spicy chili. Usually, a small pinch is addictive, but when news like the Red Sea incident hits, the heat doubles instantly, burning through your gut with just one K-line. I’ve seen too many people use the whole jar of chili to spice up a dish that’s not even cooked through, ending up not tasting the main course at all.
Watching the market is like watching fire. The office building at Daran is still smoking, Saudi says production hasn’t stopped, but the real kitchen rule is—never rush to turn off the exhaust before the fire is out. #aramcohqattackoilrisk10.14 Market Update: The Crypto Circle is Collectively Watching the CPI
Bitcoin has been hovering between 81,000 and 84,000 yuan these past few days, with this morning's quote just above 83,000 yuan. The 24-hour volatility is so low it's almost boring. Behind this narrow fluctuation, the entire market is holding its breath waiting for tonight's 8:30 PM CPI release.
There's a signal on-chain worth noting: BTC held on exchanges has dropped from 2.8 million coins in February to 2.67 million now, a decrease of 130,000 coins over 8 months. The chips have been steadily moving to cold wallets, meaning less sellable supply on exchanges, which is definitely a positive for the medium to long term.
On the ETF front, there was a recovery yesterday with a total net inflow of $176 million, with Fidelity's FBTC alone accounting for $103 million. However, Ethereum ETFs are still bleeding, with net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, showing a clear short-term capital divergence.
The key is tonight. The September ISM Services Price Index surged to 74, and Michigan inflation expectations returned to 4.7%, so the probability of CPI exceeding expectations is high. If inflation spikes, the lower boundary of 81,000 yuan will be tested first; if it falls short of expectations, only then might the upper boundary of 84,000 yuan truly break through. The Fear and Greed Index returned to 63 today, indicating a greedy state.
Don't rush to increase positions these two days; wait for the data before making moves. Controlling your hands is better than anything else.
$BTC $ETH Who is sending money to Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet?
Just took a look at Satoshi's address, current holdings:
1,096,000 $BTC, valued at $83,753 each, worth 91.8 billion USD, accounting for 5.22% of the entire network.
His genesis address: Over the past 15 years, 66,911 transactions, cumulatively received 57.65 BTC. On average, about 72 USD per transaction.
The largest single transaction was 26.9 BTC at the beginning of 2024—accounting for more than 40% of the total received in one go.
Conor Grogan, product lead at CB, said at the time: "Either Satoshi woke up and bought 27 bitcoins to deposit into the wallet, or someone burned 1 million USD."
Why are people still sending money to Satoshi every day now?
Tribute, making on-chain marks, or simply wanting to be "someone who has sent money to Satoshi Nakamoto."
67,000 transactions—do you think this is a tribute, or collective self-indulgence? #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
The September CPI will be released tonight, with the Federal Reserve's rate hike disagreements unresolved.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the CPI data will be released. Bitcoin has been hovering around 83,000 for several days, with no clear direction up or down. This position is quite tricky, as both bulls and bears are waiting for a signal.
First, let's talk about the data itself. Institutions generally expect the overall September CPI year-over-year to jump from 3.4% to 3.6%, with a 7.3% increase in gasoline prices over the month being the main driver. However, the core CPI month-over-month is expected to be only 0.2%, and year-over-year 2.5%, which is relatively moderate. The gap between the overall and core CPI is exactly where the Federal Reserve is having its fiercest internal debates.
Last week, Williams said that one more rate hike this year would be enough, and there is no need to continue raising rates in 2027. But Cleveland Fed's Harnack disagrees; she directly warned of "early warning signals" in inflation expectations, noting that companies are raising prices beyond cost increases, and inflation mindset is becoming entrenched. One side thinks the energy shock is temporary, while the other worries about sticky inflation spreading; neither side has convinced the other.
On the crypto side, much has already been priced in. Last week, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $679 million, with $485 million outflow on Wednesday alone, the largest since June. Leverage has also been cleaned up, and floating supply has mostly left. The 30-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has returned to about 40%. In plain terms, BTC is currently a high-beta asset following US Treasury yields, so its independence can't be relied upon for now.
Don't rush to open high-leverage contracts before the data release; a 0.2% or 0.3% core month-over-month CPI is enough to determine the rhythm for the next half month.
$BTC $ETH 刚浇筑完的筏板基础下，埋着三亿三千万美金的钢筋——这不是加固，这是在承重柱上再压一层楼板。
Strive在五天窗口内砌入3311枚比特币，总持仓推到32773枚，随即抬出500万份优先股的设计变更单：每份面值100美元，年化15%累积股息。从结构工程的角度看，这等于把地下室改成了高息债券层，用向上层住户承诺固定回报的方式，换取当下继续浇筑的资金流。问题是，15%是写进图纸的刚性荷载，而比特币的波动是活荷载，还带风振。活荷载不会因为你画了一条直线就老实排队。
再看Strategy的逆向操作：两周内回购3.69亿美元STRC，同时只补进584枚比特币。这是两种完全不同的结构选型。一个在加高塔楼，把融资成本往上堆；一个在拆掉临时支撑，收紧资本结构。前者赌的是长期抗压极限，后者在控制侧向位移。储备优先级和资金成本这两个参数，终于从图纸角落走到了结构计算书的首页。
真正的分水岭在现金流。股息是必须按月支付的剪力墙配筋，而比特币不产生租金。当价格下行时，你只能卖砖换水泥，或者再发一层优先股去填上一层的洞。这不是杠杆率的问题，是浇筑顺序的问题——先浇哪一层，决定整栋楼能不能通过验收。
$xSKHY这类代币化美股标的，本质是把整栋楼的产权拆成小份卖给散户。市场联动看的不是新闻标题，是这块地上到底有没有打桩。融资效率一旦成为主旋律，所有还在用白皮书当地基的项目，都会暴露出回填土没夯实的裂缝。
设计可以改，承重墙不能。当你需要每年15%的固定支出才能维持结构稳定时，这栋楼的使用性质已经从资产变成了负担。 #striveadds3311btcARC现价0.02921，技术面极弱空头排列，大跌后连个像样的修复都没有。清算地图下方0.025到0.027堆着密集多头止损盘，上方0.031到0.032卖压沉重。当前流动性真空，资金没进场意愿，趋势看空，大概率向下磨损触发多头爆仓。
刚巡完楼回亭子，杯子里的茶凉了，懒得续。
操作上顺势空。反弹到0.0298到0.0305区间进场空，防守放0.0315上方，这个位置破了空头逻辑就得重看。第一止盈0.0275，第二目标0.0255，到位分批走。别贪，流动性真空里插针随时发生，仓位控制好。多单现在不碰，下方止损盘还没清完，接不住。
$ARC
#阿斯麦财报前瞻：EUV订单成关键看点
@OKX星球 When I just saw that position screenshot, I stared at the HYPE line of numbers for two seconds in disbelief. Have you ever seen a structure where one account holds bets in three different directions at the same time? Let me first restore the scene. The positions of a certain whale were laid out: a 40x short on BTC with unrealized profit close to $260,000, plus over $50,000 contributed by funding fees; a 25x long on ETH opened at 2546, with unrealized losses already exceeding $400,000; the most eye-catching is a 5x short on HYPE, opened at 63.9, liquidation price set at 106.6, unrealized loss about $4.86 million, with funding fees subsidizing back $1.02 million as a buffer. This is not three independent judgments; it is an internally hedged leverage setup. The BTC short generates profit, the ETH long and HYPE short absorb the damage, and the funding fees stitch it all together. On the surface, there are profits and losses, but at the core, it’s a bet on one thing: whether the total margin can hold. Reading from the derivatives structure, this reveals market sentiment better than looking at candlesticks. An account accommodating both 40x and 5x extremes simultaneously shows that the margin efficiency in the current futures market is fully utilized, which also means liquidations are not isolated events but will pull each other along. As long as BTC doesn’t suddenly surge, shorts can keep collecting rent; but once a one-sided market kicks in, the ETH long and HYPE short will be dragged into a chain of forced position reductions. The bullish path is: if BTC maintains a weak oscillation and funding fees continue to subsidize shorts, this combination can still buy time to create space, ETH #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 【台积电 Q3 营收创新高，为什么币圈也要看】台积电三季报超预期，核心是 AI 芯片需求把先进制程产能吃满。
传导逻辑：台积电是 AI 叙事的「晴雨表」——营收创新高 → 科技股情绪强 → 风险偏好回升 → 加密这种高风险资产同向受益；同时 AI 概念币（GPU/算力叙事）会跟着情绪脉冲。
但注意：这是「情绪面」不是「资金面」——台积电的利润不会直接进币圈，别把芯片股涨当成 BTC 涨的理由，短线联动、中线各走各的。
方向参考：情绪面偏多环境下，AI 叙事币种（RNDR 类）有脉冲机会，快进快出为主。
#台积电 #AI #加密市场
⚠️ 合约有风险，方向参考不构成投资建议。24小时内，$BTC 一度砸至80,927美元，$ETH 触及2,405美元，8.14亿美元合约被强平，其中84.6%是多头。没有黑天鹅，只有高杠杆集中还债。这才是最值得警惕的信号：不是恐慌盘，而是结构性撤退。 诡异的是反弹。$BTC 几乎收回全部跌幅，距开盘仅差0.3%；$ETH 却没能站回2,560美元，$SOL 距112美元还差约3%。这不是风险偏好回归，而是资金缩进BTC防空洞。BTC市占率升至59.3%，吸血格局清晰可见。 宏观也没给喘息空间。Hamark直言通胀已蔓延至AI基础设施和电力，12月加息概率逼近70%，10年期美债收益率5.24%。今晚20:30 CPI就是决胜局：核心月率≤0.2%可松口气，0.3%引发争论，≥0.4%则加息定价重来。过热比过冷更危险。 三个价位定性质：$BTC 84,360、$ETH 2,580、$SOL 113。三者同步突破才叫扩散；只有$BTC 独自走强，仍是避险，不是复苏。当前结构下，$BTC 相对抗跌偏多，$ETH 与$SOL 需站回关键位才能确认修复，否则反弹只是杠杆出清后的技术性回补。 一句话记住：杠杆退潮时，BTC是盾牌，不是引Brothers, ZEC has fallen below 1300, but the whales and ETF are going against each other
$ZEC $1,256
ZEC has retraced from the late September high of $1698 down to around 1256, with the 24-hour decline narrowing to about 1.7%, currently seeking support in the 1200-1250 range.
The ETF is still running. The Grayscale ZCSH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $93.56 million last week, marking the first weekly negative inflow since its listing at the end of August, with assets under management dropping from a peak of $979 million to $751 million. The ETF has completely shifted from buying pressure to selling pressure.
But the whales are going against the trend. One whale doubled their position to $66.75 million during the decline, accumulating 54,400 ZEC from Binance and Kraken. Another whale is still adding positions during the pullback, with an average holding price of about 1510, currently at an unrealized loss of around 7%. These two groups are bidding each other farewell at this level.
The NU7 upgrade is the next variable. The testnet has been activated, with the mainnet targeted for November 5th, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. The old Sprout pool ZEC will become invalid after the upgrade, so users holding old addresses need to transfer in advance.
Technically, 1200 is a key level to watch; breaking below it points to 1100.
Discuss in the comments: whale bottom-fishing or ETF retreat, which do you trust?👇
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ Sharp plunge V-shaped rebound! South Korean stocks' rebound narrows, is this semiconductor buying a bottom-fishing or a bull trap? #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？
After a rapid sell-off, South Korean stocks experienced a deep V-shaped rebound, but the upward momentum weakened significantly in the afternoon, with gains continuously narrowing. The semiconductor sector is the core driving force.
This rebound essentially represents capital bottom-fishing repair after the sharp drop. Samsung and SK Hynix fell rapidly in the short term, and many investors believe the short-term decline was overdone, entering to play the rebound. But a key point to note: the buying momentum during the rebound is insufficient; after the surge, funds begin to take profits and exit, compressing the gains.
Whether this rebound can continue depends on two core factors:
First, U.S. Treasury yields. If U.S. Treasury yields remain high without falling back, it will be difficult for the tech growth sector to sustain a large rally, as high interest rates suppress chip valuations.
Second, the orders and demand expectations for memory chips themselves. This round of decline is not due to a fundamental collapse but more due to short-term panic selling; however, for the rebound to go far, new fundamental positive catalysts must continuously follow.
Currently, the market shows a very obvious characteristic: the rebound after the sharp drop is an emotional repair, not a trend reversal. This type of V-shaped market is most prone to being a "one-day wonder," with short-term funds bottom-fishing and taking profits, and subsequent buying failing to keep up, making the market easily pressured again.
In such a sharp drop followed by a narrowing rebound, do not rush to heavily chase the highs. The deep V movement is highly volatile, with strong tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making it easy to be stopped out repeatedly. Prioritize observing whether funds can continue to enter and whether the sector can hold the rebound highs. Today I saw a pretty interesting set of data.
Grayscale's GSOL bought about $20.2 million worth of SOL in the past 20 days, with net inflows on most trading days over the past month, and only one day showing outflows.
At the same time, VanEck's VSOL was selling, with about $700,000 worth of SOL sold on the latest trading day.
Two asset management giants, one buying, one selling.
Honestly, I was a bit stunned when I saw this data. I used to only know that institutions were entering the market, but never really thought about the differences between institutions. Then I realized—this isn’t a disagreement about whether institutions want to buy Solana, it’s a disagreement about through whom to buy Solana. Money is flowing toward GSOL, which means some are switching tools, not quitting.
GSOL is a new product and is still continuously attracting funds; VSOL is redeeming, so the money might just be taking a different route in. It’s like you used to buy coins on platform A, but later moved to platform B because the fees were lower—the coins are still the same, just in a different place.
Institutional funds for $SOL haven’t decreased; they’re just changing hands. Don’t panic just because you see the word "redeem."山寨季指数62，贪婪指数63！BTC稳住底盘，ETH承接资金，ZEC成为这轮轮动先锋，距离全面山寨季只差临门一脚
两张核心情绪指标同步更新，山寨币季节指数62，恐惧贪婪指数63。
当下资金轮动路径非常清晰：BTC作为大盘压舱石稳住盘面，ETH承接外溢资金，ZEC这类老牌隐私龙头率先跑出超额收益，正是过渡轮动阶段最典型的盘面特征。
📊指标一：山寨币季节指数 62
指数规则：统计前50主流山寨，过去90天跑赢BTC的占比
- ＜25：比特币季节，资金抱团大饼，山寨整体弱势
- 25～75：轮动过渡期（当前62就在这个区间）
- ＞75：正式全面山寨季，山寨普涨，大面积跑赢BTC
当前状态：没有正式开启全面山寨季，但已经逼近75分水岭，处于结构性轮动加速阶段。
不是所有山寨一起起飞，资金优先挑选有叙事、有共识的标的，强者先涨，弱势山寨继续横盘躺平。
📊指标二：贪婪与恐惧指数 63（贪婪区间）
0–24极度恐惧｜25–49恐惧｜50–74贪婪｜75–100极度贪婪
👉 63处在贪婪中段，市场风险偏好持续回升，多头情绪回暖，但远没有到全民FOMO #SanDisk and Micron decline, Changxin Technology progress draws attention
Overnight storage stocks turned "green" again: Micron down nearly 4%, SanDisk down nearly 6%, overseas storage chain showing chills (｡•́︿•̀｡).
Catalyst comes from Changxin: progress reported on 4F² DRAM architecture, planning to launch DDR5 RDIMM by year-end, targeting AI server memory. The market imagines that after cutting from 6F² to 4F², the cell area shrinks by about one-third, density goes up, cost goes down; the real scare is not grabbing orders today, but if stable volume is achieved in the future, pricing power of major US-Korean manufacturers and server DRAM gross margins will have to be recalculated (⊙_⊙).
But don’t scare yourself first: SanDisk’s main business is NAND, not direct competition with DRAM, this wave looks more like a collective revaluation misfire in storage; HBM high-end desktop, Changxin may not enter the table in the short term either.
Conclusion: The super cycle is not over, but the "shortage narrative" is fading. Micron and SanDisk should wait for a stop-fall signal first, don’t rush to bottom fish; A-share storage watches Changxin chain sentiment, but technical breakthroughs don’t equal realized profits (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
$SNDK $MU $BTC
#September CPI announced tonight, Fed rate hike divergence to be resolved
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard I have reviewed a set of data several times. From October 1st to 9th, the net inflow of all Dogecoin ETFs in the US was zero. For seven full trading days, no new money came in, and no old money went out. As of the 9th, these ETFs held a total of $14.9 million.
During the same period, XRP ETFs attracted $11 million, with assets 105 times the size of Dogecoin ETFs.
$14.9 million is just a drop in the bucket in the crypto market.
But when I saw another number, I actually felt reassured. Seven days of zero movement means—no subscriptions, no redemptions. No money came in, but no money ran away either. This is not a mass exodus; it means standing still.
When retail investors don’t rush in, the price doesn’t crash. When ETFs aren’t being bought, the price doesn’t crash. When the entire market is red, the price still doesn’t crash. What supports this isn’t just those few ETFs, but the crowd underneath who don’t touch ETFs and hold their wallets themselves.
$14.9 million is the dignity of institutions; the real bottom support is on-chain. $DOGE, I’m not the only one holding it up.The most tormenting part of this market cycle is neither the drop nor the rise. It's when you just convinced yourself that "the trend is still down," only to have your short position suddenly liquidated; the more it falls, the more you dare to short, just as you add to your position, a rebound hits, slapping you back to reality.
Take a good look at this midday data:
1-hour liquidations: $5.6 million, shorts $4.28 million, about 76%
4-hour liquidations: $20.19 million, shorts $14.39 million, 71%
24-hour dimension: $BTC liquidations $32.85 million, shorts 78.7%; $ETH liquidations $28.98 million, shorts 63.5%. The short liquidation ratio for $BTC is significantly higher; in this rebound, the shorts are the ones who can't hold on.
This is not just a casual rebound; shorts are being systematically harvested.
Simply put: prices are pushed up, forcing shorts to close positions; closing requires buying back, which further drives prices higher; prices rise again, triggering the next batch of stop-losses and forced liquidations. This creates a self-reinforcing short squeeze spiral. So what shorts fear most is never a slow rise, but this kind of forced upward squeeze.
The biggest pitfall here is mistaking "the sharp drop before" as "safe to keep shorting afterward." The more eager you are to short, the more likely you are to get caught in this covering rally, watching helplessly as your position gets bounced out.
That said, despite the rebound, the underlying logic of this market still has fragile points.
Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $679 million in a single week, the largest since June; Ethereum had a net outflow of $542 million in the same period. Buying momentum in the US market is weakening, with Coinbase premium index dropping to its lowest since July, even turning negative at times. From a capital perspective, this rebound relies more on passive covering in derivatives rather than active buying in spot.
Meanwhile, the South Korean stock market plunged 5.5%, AI trading confidence is shaken, and risk appetite is transmitting from external markets. Tonight's CPI release, if hawkish, will only increase volatility.
So the only thing to watch closely next is: after the surge, can the pullback be supported?
For $BTC, the 81,300–82,000 range is a recently repeatedly tested and defended support zone, also where the 400-day moving average lies; every time it pulls back to this area, it bounces back. For ETH, watch the 2,480–2,495 short-term moving average cluster; if the previous low at 2,494 holds, the rebound structure can continue.
If the pullback is met with buyers, it means spot buying is entering, giving confidence to keep moving up; if no one steps in on the pullback, beware that this rebound lacks strength and is just another short-covering-driven false rally.
Wait for the pullback, see the support, then decide.
Don't be the one who dared not short during the drop, finally got the courage when it rose, only to be ejected right after boarding the plane.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 ETF outflows—how did that immediately turn into "institutions no longer trust BTC"?
In the complete Farside data, on October 12, the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs had net outflows of $65.4 million and $85.4 million respectively. Outflows do indicate weaker fund inflows for these products on that day. But the table only lists the fund names and amounts; it doesn't tell us whether the sellers were pension funds, investment advisors, or regular accounts.
An ETF is just a tool for holding assets; it doesn't automatically label every buyer or seller as an institution. To verify some institutional holdings, you need to look at disclosures like 13F filings; the SEC requires these quarterly reports to be submitted within 45 days after the quarter ends. They record holdings at the quarter's end and don't provide real-time info on who pressed the sell button on any given day.
We're too used to assigning a seemingly authoritative identity to the money and then guessing its long-term stance. When inflows happen, we say institutions are optimistic; when outflows occur, we say institutions are exiting.
Who sold? Actually, we might not know either time.
This round of simultaneous outflows is worth tracking, but I'm more concerned about whether subsequent redemptions expand to more products and how long they last. To judge if demand for these products is weakening, continuous records help; to determine if a certain type of institution is changing allocations, you still need holding evidence. Don't treat fund flow tables as investor sentiment reports.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs have simultaneous outflows—has institutional demand weakened? #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
TSMC will release its Q3 report tomorrow. Revenue has already been disclosed in advance, reaching 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a 50% year-over-year increase, setting a new historical high. But revenue is just the headline; the market is now focused on profit and gross margin.
The company itself expects the Q3 gross margin to be between 65% and 67%, lower than the actual 67.7% in Q2. This figure is critical. If AI chip demand remains strong but the gross margin declines, it indicates cost pressures or that investments in advanced processes are eating into profits. Whether they can maintain 65% will be verified by the financial report.
Also to watch are management’s outlook on AI chip demand, expansion of advanced process and packaging capacity, as well as guidance for Q4 revenue and capital expenditures. TSMC’s capital expenditure is a key reference for the entire semiconductor industry chain to judge how long AI infrastructure investment can continue.
For BTC, this is not direct but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure, and its capital expenditure guidance determines whether the computing power economy can continue to expand. If TSMC continues to increase investment in advanced processes, it means AI demand is real and sustained, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact, reinforcing BTC’s long-term logic as the underlying anchor. Conversely, if TSMC cuts spending and AI infrastructure slows down, both tech stocks and the crypto market will feel the pressure.
In the short term, BTC is fluctuating around 82,000, with resistance between 83,500 and 84,500, and support between 81,500 and 82,000. $TSM $xTSM Term Structure Radar
$ETH first-level positive spread corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.56%, with the first-level pair scale about $5; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.05%.
$SOL mark spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is already inverted. Mark near-far spread +0.04%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.13%.