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#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high TSMC is not a "cyclical rebound," but the "tax collector" of AI computing power. No matter how Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Google compete in AI, in the end, they all have to pay the "manufacturing tax" on TSMC's production lines. Who has design capability is not important; who can secure 2nm/3nm capacity is what matters.
So the real signal of this earnings report is not "TSMC is very profitable," but that AI infrastructure has not peaked yet, and the moat of advanced process technology is actually getting deeper. TSMC's bargaining power, yield, packaging, and scale are no longer the logic of an ordinary foundry, but rather "the foundational infrastructure stock in semiconductors."
In the short term, the valuation is not cheap; in the long term:
Having TSMC ≠ guaranteed win, but without TSMC = basically out of the AI chip game #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high
The rigid demand for advanced process AI chips has allowed TSMC to break free from the traditional semiconductor industry's cyclical fluctuations, achieving 11 consecutive quarters of profit growth. A net profit margin of 51.1% far surpasses the vast majority of global tech companies, proving that the scarcity of high-end advanced manufacturing has transformed into strong pricing power and profitability.#TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.M $ASML $NVDA
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins $BTC is bearish. The current price is 81,051.2. I judge that the intraday low of 80,188 will not hold, and it will make new lows next. Long positions liquidated in the last 24 hours amounted to 86.02 million USD, more than twice the short positions. However, the number of short liquidations is actually higher, with 2,486 trades compared to only 1,298 for longs. The spike to 84,117.6 squeezed out a batch of small short positions, while the drop afterward forced out large long leverage. The main ones squeezed out were longs; shorts were basically unharmed. Options put/call volume is 1.05, higher than the open interest ratio of 0.91, indicating that new trades that day leaned bearish. DVOL at 39.0 is not high; the market has not priced in a panic-driven drop yet, so there is room to fall further. Funding rates have turned negative for three consecutive periods, but this is just background information and not a reason by itself. The total stablecoin supply of 306.7 billion USD is stock and does not mean someone is buying today. The chart shows moving averages in a bearish alignment and price hugging previous lows, consistent with this judgment. The condition to turn bullish: reclaim 84,117.6, which would invalidate this bearish view. #TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High TSMC's revenue has already surpassed targets, so what will Thursday's earnings call focus on?
TSMC's third-quarter revenue was actually announced earlier, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. Thursday's earnings call will not focus on revenue, but on the costs behind that revenue.Core CPI at 2.6%, 0.1 points higher than expected
Core CPI came out at 2.6%.
The expectation was originally 2.5%.
How this number is calculated:
It excludes oil prices and vegetable prices.
What remains are rent, services, and such.
This part can't come down, so interest rates can't come down.
Who fears this number the most:
Project teams fear it the most.
If interest rates don't ease, new money won't flow into altcoins.
$ETH fell first because it is closest to the funds.
Looking further down the line.
$BTC is still more than 3% away from 80,000.
US Treasury yields have already risen to 5.27%.
Money is flowing into bonds, not into coins.
Altcoins are being drained, not because someone is targeting anyone.
It's because the faucet hasn't been turned on.
#StandardChartered opens BTC and ETH trading, expanding banking crypto business
#$ETH $BTC # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
TSMC's Q3 earnings in one sentence: AI computing power demand pushes the foundry leader to new heights, advanced processes become an absolute cash machine.
Explosive performance: Revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-on-year; net profit of 763.1 billion, up 68.7% year-on-year, profit growth outpaces revenue — high value-added capacity fully utilized, profitability efficiency hits a new high.
Structural disruption: Advanced processes (7nm and below) account for 79% of wafer revenue, 2nm just started mass production and already takes 8% share. Traditional mature processes are squeezed to the sidelines, technological barriers directly translate into pricing power.
Underlying logic: Growth almost entirely driven by AI chips. Nvidia, AMD, and cloud providers' self-developed ASICs are all lined up on TSMC's production lines; it is the most guaranteed winner selling "shovels" in this AI wave.
Outlook:
• For the industry: Confirms that AI hardware demand remains high, supporting the logic of rising equipment/test/material supply chains;
• For TSMC: 2nm ramp-up plus AI orders sustain short- to mid-term high prosperity;
• Risks: Huge capital expenditure, geopolitical issues, and capacity allocation are long-term variables.
Investment perspective: This is a "prosperity confirmation," not "expectation speculation," but the stock price already includes optimistic expectations, so chasing highs depends on your own position and risk tolerance. #AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress
$SOL This chart has something very awkward.
It hit the trending searches on major exchanges, discussion is at its peak, yet the price has been dropping from near the weekly low, down about 5% in just over twenty hours. The hype is hype, the market is the market, and these two things are completely separated right now.
What excites everyone is that it can appear domestically, can run ads, and the upcoming new consensus upgrade claims to reduce transaction confirmation to near-instant levels. Sounds impressive. But look at the price—the spot holders are running, volume is about the same as usual, meaning it doesn't take much volume to push the price down, and no one is buying at the bottom.
This is what I call abnormal: a "positive" event paired with a "declining" price means the market has already priced in this good news. Now those buying are the ones catching the falling knife, not the ones profiting. $SOL September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, with both core annual and monthly rates exceeding expectations — this second-level signal is more alarming than the headline itself. The high oil prices pushing up overall CPI is still predictable, but the core inflation excluding energy and food continues to rise month-on-month, indicating that price pressures on services like housing and healthcare have not eased. $BTC dropped sharply with a vertical bearish candle the moment the data was released; bulls tried to bottom-fish but were repeatedly crushed by selling pressure, with the bearish candle seemingly endless like an old lady going downstairs. $ZEC was not spared either. Interestingly, $NEAR holders are still holding firm, and bulls seem not to have given up, clearly engaging in a direct confrontation with short-term funds. Short-term investors who bottomed SOXL at 120 are now stuck at 180 dollars; the losses from 3x leverage are not negligible in a volatile market, and leveraged ETFs are inherently unsuitable for long-term holding. The conclusion remains unchanged: this is still a fake bull market, not a real one. Several FOMC members previously released dovish signals, but in the face of such CPI data, it is hard to maintain them; whether to continue raising rates in October will directly depend on the stickiness of core inflation. The market had already risen ahead of the data, indicating expectations were once optimistic, but the surprise in the core components is the real killer. If the core monthly rate does not fall subsequently, the rebound of $BTC and $ETH will most likely still be suppressed, and high-beta assets like $SOL will also struggle to fare well. There is only one confirming signal: a substantial cooling of core inflation month-on-month; otherwise, every rebound will just be a battlefield for short-term speculation. #USCPI3.7%PPII#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 🚗 | Before Tesla's earnings report, I am more focused on whether the profit margin can recover
Currently holding $TSLA, I have been closely watching Tesla's fundamental changes recently.
Q3 vehicle deliveries reached 486,532 units, exceeding market expectations, but still down about 2.1% year-over-year. I think this data releases an important signal: Tesla's demand remains resilient, but sales growth does not necessarily mean profitability improves in tandem. PONS just said yesterday that the data rebounded, but I see the data shrank back a bit today.
Compared to October 12 and October 13, the latest daily ring ratios of platform fees and protocol income decreased by 30.83% and 35.98%, respectively.
With data performing so poorly, why did the coin price rise yesterday? I think it was more driven by news.
Yesterday, there was a rumor that Robinhood is preparing $100 million to support Robinhood Chain, which caused many ecosystem coins to take off. Whether it's true or not, I don't know, but quite a few. Crypto media picked it up again, which indeed stimulated the market.
But to be honest, improving the core data is the key. You can't rely on news to drive buying every time; if it happens too often, the effect diminishes. It's like the boy who cried wolf, and the truth will eventually be revealed.
The effect was so good yesterday that I guess the data on the 14th might improve a bit. The market is too bad now, the overall market is like this, let alone any meme coins.兄弟们，机会来了！
2014年，美国中期选举后71天，比特币触底，
2018年，美国中期选举后39天，比特币触底，
2022年，美国中期选举后13天，比特币触底，
2026年？#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 2026年10月15日，台积电交出了一份堪称教科书级别的季度答卷：Q3营收1.494万亿新台币，同比增长50.9%；净利润7631亿新台币（约合235亿美元），同比大增69%，不仅远超市场预期的7463亿新台币，更创下公司成立以来单季盈利历史新高。这也是台积电连续第六个季度刷新盈利纪录。 更值得注意的是盈利质量。此前市场最大的担忧在于，2纳米制程的加速爬坡会带来3-4个百分点的毛利率稀释。然而实际数据显示，Q3毛利率达66.4%，稳稳落在公司指引区间65%-67%的中上沿；营业利润率58.7%，甚至超出了56%-58%的指引上限。这意味着台积电用产品组合的优化和定价能力，完全消化了新制程量产初期的成本压力。 从收入结构看，2纳米制程已贡献晶圆收入的8%，3纳米占比33%，先进制程合计占比超过40%。在AI芯片需求的狂飙突进下，台积电最尖端、毛利率最高的产能，正在被客户以近乎"抢购"的方式填满。If they beat but Q4 guidance is flat, this could be a dead-cat bounce. If advertising remains below $700 million per quarter, the narrative of the "next phase of growth from advertising" will be hard for investors to believe.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins There are several major data releases tonight
Volatility is expected to be high in the evening
Last night, the US stock market already took a big hit
At 20:30 tonight, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will be released together
What is the market most afraid of now?
The economy is weak, but inflation won't come down
PPI higher than expected is bearish for Bitcoin
But I think the biggest fear tonight is conflicting data
One positive, one negative
Bull and bear forces tugging back and forth
Bitcoin jumping up and down
Ending with a double whammy for bulls and bears
Especially now that the US stock market is already weak
It's hard for the crypto market to stay unaffected
$BTC $ETH $SOL 很多人看到Solana来上海办开发者大会，CZ（币安创始人）还发文捧场，就觉得这是要拉SOL的暗示。
实话讲，这更多是情绪利好，不是要拉盘的信号。本质是国内巡回生态建设，CZ捧场属圈子社交，非公开喊单。短期开盘或现脉冲，链上meme炒作升温，但“买传闻，卖事实”是铁律，聪明钱提前埋伏，利好落地反成止盈窗口，极易冲高回落。
最大变量仍在宏观。美国9月CPI升至3.7%超预期，核心通胀顽固，美债收益率居高不下，美联储降息预期持续降温，风险资产承压。BTC围绕8万关口博弈，大盘偏空下，SOL独木难支，热度难撑持续大涨。
技术面看，SOL前期高杠杆爆仓余波未平，上方套牢盘密集。短期情绪炒作勿追高，警惕利好兑现后的回调风险，轻仓防守，盯紧BTC大盘脸色。$BTC $ETH $ZEC 不少千万市值以下小山寨币，像 LYN 流通市值仅 300 万，还在持续阴跌，很大原因是币安收紧山寨合约杠杆。
做市商共用一份保证金同时做多个币种，杠杆上限调低后，保证金不够，只能撤走流动性。盘口变薄，少量卖单就能砸大跌，想平仓都找不到接盘。
10.11 就是前车之鉴，行情极端时做市商会优先保 BTC、ETH，抽干小币流动性，价格直接自由落体。
现在币安提前压杠杆，看似防踩踏，但几百万市值小币风险变大。持有这类币别只看涨跌方向，重点盯流动性，务必设好止损。#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
PPI and CPI appear back-to-back, leaving the Federal Reserve no buffer these days. The overall inflation rebound has been pre-played by the market; the real uncertainty is whether core inflation can drop a notch month-over-month.
No rush to bet on direction yet. The more important question is: if inflation pressure eases, where will the follow-up funds come from?
On October 12, the US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of 65.4 million and 85.4 million USD respectively. Capital leaving is not a bearish verdict, but it adds a barrier to the rebound—without net subscription inflows, price rises lack spot buying support.
BTC 83,356, ETH 2,505, SOL 107.41. Tonight, only three things are confirmed:
1. Whether core CPI is weaker than expected. This is the first gate for risk appetite.
2. After BTC rallies, whether ETH and SOL can keep up. If their exchange rates against BTC remain unrepaired, BTC’s solo strength looks more like a temporary capital gathering rather than a spread of risk appetite.
3. Whether it can hold steady after the initial pulse. Data controls the first jump; follow-through controls sustainability. A spike followed by a retreat indicates insufficient chasing orders; a pullback with support and higher lows looks like a reversal.
So tonight, no guessing on rise or fall, just verification. The quality of ETH and SOL’s relay is a better indicator of whether risk appetite has returned than BTC’s solo charge.
$BTC $ETH $SOL CPI at 3.7% shatters the illusion of a "pause in rate hikes"
On October 14, the US September CPI data was released: a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, also exceeding expectations.
Do you understand the weight of this number?
Before this, the market logic was "inflation is cooling down, the Fed will pause rate hikes." The probability of a rate hike in October was once suppressed to around 20%. Bears dared not heavily short under this logic, while bulls dared to chase higher.
Then CPI slapped everyone in the face.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in October quickly rebounded from around 20%, and the probability of a rate hike in December exceeded 80%. Bitcoin fell directly from around 84,000 to below 82,000.
More critically, this is not an isolated event. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that 9 out of 18 members believe there will be another rate hike within the year. Fed official Waller further quantified expectations on October 8: market pricing shows an 85% probability of at least one rate hike by December, and nearly 80% probability of at least two rate hikes before March 2027.
Bitcoin falling from 84,000 to 80,230 is not a "correction." The market is repricing the fact that "rate hikes will not stop."
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $WAL won't drop anytime soon; smart money shorts have a cost around 0.52, making shorting too expensive. Just paying the fees alone won't crash the market. Let's wait and see if the fees drop before considering shorting again. Overinvest: Risk excess capacity, escalating depreciation, and poor returns on invested capital.
Monetize too slowly: Allow infrastructure costs to hit cash flow long before new AI revenue becomes material.
The recent reporting strengthens this interpretation: Zuckerberg reportedly acknowledged that Meta was prepared to invest up to $200 billion despite uncertainty about whether its AI initiative would succeed. #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook Samsung is down 6% and SK Hynix 7% pre-market, and US memory stocks slid overnight. Just days ago, Micron's CEO touted $150B in locked-in long-term orders and tighter supply for the next two years. Great story, yet the price dropped in a day.
My advice to leveraged traders: when narrative and price diverge, trust price. If the AI hardware chain starts splitting, risk-off will hit high-beta assets like $BTC fast. Don't wait to get hit; react early.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins ##TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC is going to release its latest earnings report this Thursday✨
Actually, a 50% year-over-year revenue growth is nothing new; the market already got preliminary data last week making this clear. What really holds the market's pulse are three key numbers hidden in the earnings report: gross margin, full-year performance guidance, and next year's capital expenditure.
TSMC's preset range for Q3 gross margin is 65%-67%, but last quarter's gross margin even touched a high of #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
Brothers, TSMC's Q3 financial report just came out. As usual, don't just watch the hype, look at the essentials.
Single-quarter net profit reached 763 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 68.7%, directly surpassing the market expectation of 746.3 billion, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record-breaking results. The 3nm process accounted for 33% of wafer revenue, and the 2nm process, just starting mass production, contributed 8%. This ramp-up speed is much faster than expected. Advanced processes make up 79% of total revenue. In plain terms, global AI computing power orders are pouring crazily into TSMC's production lines.
What does this have to do with our crypto circle? A lot. Recently, Bitcoin dropped to $80,230 due to CPI data missing expectations, triggering $484 million in liquidations across the network within an hour, with long positions accounting for $464 million. But on the other hand, Bitcoin mining companies are accelerating the shift of their computing power contracts towards AI and HPC, with a cumulative contract scale of about $100 billion. Miners are no longer mining coins but selling computing power to AI companies; Genesis Digital Assets, IREN, and others are making this transition. This is not a small trend.
On the funding side, Wintermute's recent analysis also confirms this—when mainstream coins are under pressure, money hasn't left the market but moved from DeFi to AI-related tokens, with NEAR considered a typical beneficiary. AI and crypto now share the same computing power resources: Nvidia needs chips, TSMC manufactures chips, miners supply power and facilities, and the tokens we trade act as intermediaries for capital rotation.The battle to defend 80,000 has begun, and 4.8 billion has already withdrawn 😱
Looking at BTC, 81,000 didn't hold, and it broke through directly this afternoon.
ETH (-5.94%), "If 2400 breaks, watch 2350"—just one breath away.
SOL (-4.83%), all three brothers are in the red today, each worse than the last.
Money matters are the most telling.
In 24 hours, BTC contracts saw 1.849 billion exit, spot saw 452 million exit, totaling 2.3 billion.
ETH is even worse, contracts 1.973 billion, spot 570 million, totaling 2.543 billion.
Together, the two brothers total over 4.8 billion, and "running first as a courtesy" has become the mainstream.
But the last hour is interesting.
BTC contracts had a net inflow of 21.07 million in 1 hour, ETH contracts net inflow of 18.01 million.
Regarding fees, BTC is at 0.0075%, higher than at noon. After breaking 81,000, bulls are still paying premiums to hold positions. ETH fees at 0.0022%, just a step away from turning negative.
My view is just two points.
① It's normal to run money before the announcement; with CPI leaning hawkish and tonight's 20:30 event pending, everyone fears a rate hike repricing.
② The 1-hour inflow is the first batch betting on "bad news fully priced in," with light positions.
If PPI really exceeds expectations, these people will be tomorrow's liquidations 📉
Right now, I'm only watching one number: the capital flow 1 hour after the announcement.
👉 If it turns positive, it means bottom-fishers are adding positions, and I'll watch for a rebound.
👉 If it turns negative, even the bottom-fishers are wrong, so 80,000 will likely be seen 👀 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.Over the past three days, XAUT has been rising, while xSKHY and xSNDK have been falling. This is not mysticism; it's the same money moving between two ends.
$XAUT is rising because safe-haven money is coming back. On the morning of October 15, gold prices broke through 4120~4150 consecutively, rising over 1% intraday, with XAUT following up to 4140. The US dollar index dropped by 0.42%, US Treasury yields fell, lowering the cost of holding gold; central banks purchased 63 tons of gold in September, the highest in nearly two years. But it is still 25% below the January ATH of 5505. This is a deep correction rebound, not a new high. 4100 is the bottom of this round.
$xSKHY is falling because the most crowded position in AI is deflating a bubble. ADR is reported at 138~139, down 9.5%~11% in 24 hours, KOSPI dropped 7%, triggering a sidecar. Four straws: Changxin 4F² breakthrough, Toshiba capacity expansion, HBM4 equipment delay, and $40 billion buyback ended early. Foreign investors have sold for 7 consecutive days. Demand is not bad; what’s bad is the valuation.
$xSNDK is falling with the same story, and SanDisk is even worse. Down 10.8% in a week, from the September 22 high of 1909 to the October 13 low of 1401, a 27% retracement. Even earnings beating expectations didn’t stop the sell-off.
XAUT’s rise means money is looking for a place to hide, while the other two fall because money is withdrawing from the most crowded spots. The industry logic hasn’t collapsed; what collapsed are valuations and positions. #GoldETFBigInflow, how safe-haven funds are reallocating TSMC’s revenue has already surpassed expectations, so what should investors focus on during Thursday’s earnings call?
The company previously reported Q3 revenue of around $46.7 billion, beating its own forecast of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. With revenue figures already out, the real focus of Thursday’s call shifts to the cost side of the business, profit margins, and how efficiently TSMC is turning strong demand into earnings.
#DailyOrbit #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 这份成绩单争议不小。第一，砍掉标准版，等于主动放弃走量市场，依赖高端，需求结构变窄；第二，售价抬升，普通用户感知升级有限，渠道已经出现分化，Pro部分机型破发，只有Max和折叠保持溢价；第三，折叠屏iPhone Duo成本高、定价贵，属于长期布局，短期很难贡献销量。CPI came out overnight, and something strange happened.
The US Treasury yield surged to 5.33% last night, then dropped straight back to 5.11% this morning. Money got cheaper, so BTC should have caught a breather.
But BTC didn’t rise; it kept falling, now at 81,000.
The key is how the US Treasury yield dropped.
Inflation fell, everyone thought no more rate hikes, so Treasuries went down, which is good—money dares to come out and play, and BTC follows up.
Today is not like that. Today the stock market crashed, and everyone got scared and fled to Treasuries. When money floods in, yields get pushed down.
Nasdaq fell 1.9% last night, the worst day since July. Asia continued to crash today; the South Korean stock market fell up to 8% intraday, Samsung and SK Hynix both dropped over 10%. The AI sector got smashed badly.
AI companies build data centers, mostly borrowing money. When rates rise, borrowing gets more expensive, and they are the first to buckle.
This time BTC wasn’t treated as a safe haven but sold off along with tech stocks. Those mining companies switching to AI computing power fell up to 13% last night.
So today’s drop in Treasuries is not good news for BTC; it shows the market is scared.
Oil hasn’t eased either. Brent is still around $105, and fighting broke out again near the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency is meeting in Paris today to discuss whether to release another 100 million barrels from emergency reserves. If they do, oil prices could ease a bit; that’s the only good news we can hope for right now.
I said before that if US Treasury yields fall back below 5.2%, it’s a signal for BTC to go up. The timing is right; BTC first looks at 83,200, then ETH at 2,410! $BTC $ETH US inflation data exceeded expectations, and Bitcoin directly fell below 81,000, with billions of dollars in liquidations hitting the market. AVAX, SEI, and INJ all followed the drop; none of these projects had internal issues. APT rose 51% over four weeks, but on-chain stablecoins shrank by 17.5%. The rally relies on sentiment rather than capital, and this structure won't hold for long. With macro pressure, rebounds are just brief escape windows.
I just opened the security booth window for some fresh air. A car came in, registered, and then I continued watching the market.
WAL current price is 0.0582, stuck above a previous dense zone. MACD shows a bearish crossover below zero, RSI peaked and is falling back, indicating weak short-term momentum. There is dense liquidation around 0.0571, which is a key support; breaking it would trigger a chain liquidation. Above, liquidation pressure at 0.06 is significantly reduced, and selling pressure is lighter. Short-term mainly sideways movement, but support below is clearer than resistance above.
Trading strategy: mainly short positions. Enter in batches between 0.0585 and 0.0592, take profit first target at 0.0572, second target at 0.0558. Stop loss at 0.0605; if price rises above this, admit the mistake and exit. Avoid long positions; consider catching a rebound only if 0.0571 truly holds, and keep position size light. In this market, staying alive is more important than making quick profits.
$WAL
#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
@OKX Planet 上方空头像三块磁铁，但磁铁不一定吸得住价格 🌙 真要冲上去，是爆空行情还是又一次假动作？ 刚盯完12小时清算图，心里有种熟悉的小紧张。BTC、ETH、SOL上方都堆着空头仓位，像三根被拉到极限的橡皮筋。 - BTC：84375.7附近，约3218万U清算，距现价+0.74% - ETH：2545.16附近，约1398万U清算，距现价+1.3% - SOL：108.85附近，约200万U清算，距现价+1.03% 数字看着都不远，对吧？但跨市场联动这个镜头下，我更在意的是三件事。 第一，这三个触发点几乎挤在同一个窄幅区间里。意味着一旦风险偏好回暖，BTC带头往上戳，ETH和SOL的清算会形成共振，短线买盘会被动放大，山寨情绪也会跟着松一口气。这是偏多的路径。 第二，但共振也可能是反向的。如果BTC先假突破再收回，ETH和SOL上方的挤压就会变成诱多陷阱，追高的人反而成为下一批燃料。跨市场同步拉升需要的是一致预期，而现在宏观数据没落地，这种一致性很脆。 第三，我真正盯的是资金费率有没有同步转正、未平仓量有没有在拉升中继续堆。如果价格冲、费率不热、OI不增，那多半是脉冲，不是趋势。 偏空的风长鑫说“每片晶圆裸片数量提升至少50%”，先别替它改写成成本下降50%。
我翻了公司G5平台的原始公告，脚注写得很清楚：比较对象是自家第四代技术平台，裸片数量按8Gb颗粒基准换算。它提供了一个具体的工艺进步指标，不是与所有竞争对手成本对比的结论。
每片晶圆能容纳更多裸片，确实有利于分摊成本。但最终有多少合格产品能卖出去，还取决于良率、加工费用与封装测试。裸片数量增加，和每颗可销售产品的成本降低，中间还有一段生产过程，不能把百分比直接搬过去。
这轮存储股波动里，两种情绪都让我觉得太急。看到技术进展，就认定老厂商利润要被清空；或是觉得新玩家短期出货有限，完全不用在意。竞争影响可能先体现在客户议价。只要买家开始认真比较替代方案，哪怕份额还没大幅变化，报价谈判也可能变难。
对长鑫的进步，我愿意认真看，也希望讨论能落在同一个比较基准上。后面更想看到可销售产品的良率和客户交付证据。技术公告里连脚注都没读完，就给全球存储利润重新排座次，实在有点太着急。
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.$SNDK SanDisk, Hynix, Samsung, and all those messy storage chip makers, just short and be done with it.
Why are these chip makers definitely going to fall?
The main reason is that these companies keep shouting every day,
"Oh~ capacity is not enough, inventory is insufficient."
Let's put it this way, if this thing could make money in the long run, these companies would have already expanded capacity and started competing on who sells more.
Anyone with money who doesn't make money is a fool, everyone understands that.
Now prices are skyrocketing, but when it comes to expansion, not a single word comes out. Obviously, these manufacturers or the entire industry have a consensus.
This thing could crash at any time. Do you really expect AI to become evergreen? The algorithms in the US are indeed powerful, but actual applications are basically zero, and the popularity and utilization are far lower than in China, unless there is another breakthrough in high-end algorithms.
Otherwise, 95% of users are using the free version, just asking a question and that's it, at most letting it help you edit something, produce a copy, or fix a few pictures. The very few who do AI videos, how much computing power can they really use?
The market is basically saturated now. Without any new technological breakthroughs, the market will head south at any time.
It's similar to the mining crash in 2022, but back then these manufacturers weren't so smart. They expanded mining capacity wildly, ending up with a huge pile of inventory. After the mining crash, they were stuck with it, and the market went straight down. The annual flash memory price drop exceeded 40%.
Now they play it smart. When the market is good, they raise prices aggressively but don't increase capacity. When the market is saturated or crashes, they shrink back like turtles, waiting for the next technological breakthrough to raise prices again. So essentially, a drop is guaranteed.#PalantirQ3Valuation #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
Last night, as the US inflation data was released, Bitcoin immediately plunged from its high, causing tens of thousands of contracts to liquidate instantly! 😱
Right now, the market is focused on tonight's production-side data. CPI reflects whether everyday goods are getting more expensive, while PPI shows if factory production costs continue to rise.
If factory costs also rise tonight, US Treasury yields will likely struggle to fall, and Bitcoin at the 80,000 level will become the last key support.
Conversely, if the data cools down, the market will have reason to believe this was just caused by oil prices, and funds might boldly flow back in.
Currently, $BTC has dropped from its high to around 80,000, with the market repeatedly testing this critical support level. The price is stuck in the 80,000–81,000 range; if it breaks down, the next stop could be 78,000.
After tonight's data release, the direction will become clear. Whether it holds or breaks depends on how strong the PPI is.
$ETH $SOL
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 To be honest, in the short term, the market will most likely be a frustrating period of volatility rather than a sudden direct reversal and surge. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The root cause of this decline is still the US inflation data exceeding expectations. The market is starting to think that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, and even does not rule out further rate hikes. As US Treasury yields continue to rise, all high-risk assets come under pressure, with US tech stocks, storage, and cryptocurrencies all dropping together.
Let's first talk about US stocks, especially the storage sector we've been watching.
It had risen too much before, and the stock price had already priced in the AI benefits in advance. Now, investors have become very picky; if earnings reports are slightly below expectations, the stock is immediately sold off.
Like SanDisk, stuck at the 1500 resistance level for a long time, with many profit-taking positions waiting to be cashed out. Plus, Musk’s tweet supporting Micron made the market worry that SanDisk’s price increase might be too aggressive and lose customers, so bulls dare not push it up hard.
In the short term, storage stocks are unlikely to rally straight back to new highs; they will most likely fluctuate repeatedly, bouncing on good news but being pushed back down by macroeconomic negatives.
Now, let's talk about the crypto space, like ETH and BTC.
They are most sensitive to interest rates. As long as the market expects rates to remain high, funds are unwilling to stay in crypto.
Once the market goes down, leveraged positions will cascade liquidate, causing the drop to be much sharper than stocks. Even if there is a rebound in between, it looks more like a correction, making it difficult to immediately start a new bull market.
Going forward, focus on two things:
US Treasury yields and statements from US officials.
As long as Treasury yields continue to rise, it will be very difficult for risk assets to have a big rally.Bitcoin miners are about to face a difficulty adjustment.
Around October 16, the difficulty is expected to increase by 5.68%.
Sounds like not much.
But it has a more direct consequence: with the same hash power, the amount of money mined will decrease by 5.37%.
Here’s how the 5.37% comes about.
There’s something called hashprice, which means how much you can earn per unit of hash power per day.
Right now, that number is 39.77 USD.
When difficulty rises, the same machine mining for the same day will get fewer coins.
Income drops first.
The key is this number hasn’t deducted electricity costs yet.
So whether mining is truly profitable depends on two things: how much you earn and how much electricity costs.
Old miners with cheap electricity can still hold on.
New miners with expensive electricity are in danger.
Here’s a calculation:
For machines with efficiency of 20 joules per terahash, at 8 cents per kWh electricity price, electricity costs alone wipe out profits.
In other words, it’s not that mining less causes losses, but that electricity costs exceed mining revenue.
So why is the difficulty suddenly adjusting?
Bitcoin automatically adjusts difficulty every 2016 blocks, aiming for an average of one block every ten minutes.
Because total hash power is increasing, blocks are being found faster, so difficulty must rise accordingly.
That’s also why it’s "expected" now, not "confirmed."
There are still over 300 blocks left before the adjustment; during this time, price, hash power, and costs may change.
The real watershed isn’t difficulty, it’s electricity price.
Miners with cheap electricity are expanding their machines.
Miners with expensive electricity are already shutting down#TSMC’s record-breaking revenue was already on the market’s radar before October 15, so presenting it as a fresh bullish surprise on earnings day may be missing the bigger picture.
On October 8, the company reported that September revenue jumped 54.6% year-over-year, while slipping 0.6% compared with the previous month. 📊
The takeaway? Strong annual growth doesn’t necessarily mean consistent month-to-month gains. Even in a booming AI chip market, short-term fluctuations.
#DailyOrbit Record numbers from TSMC, but I think the real story is what comes next. 🧐
Revenue was already disclosed month by month, so the surprise is limited. What matters now is the margin guidance (65%-67% vs 67.7% in Q2) and how much TSMC will spend on capex.
Still, with demand for AI chips this strong, I see the long-term picture as solid. Short term, the market may stay cautious. 📊
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit $TSM
Just my opinion, not financial advice.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus The 81000 level is where others caught it, not where it held on its own.
$BTC dropped back near 81000 again early this morning.
This is the second time in two days testing this price.
What others think: holding here means a double bottom, looking back to 84000.
If it doesn't hold, then look at 80000, the anchor for the whole market is here.
How this number is calculated: 81000 was the entry point for funds during the last sharp drop.
The second test means the first batch of catchers are already at a floating loss.
The second time is more fragile than the first because fewer people dare to catch it.
$OKB rose 2.4%, money is moving into platform tokens, seeking stability.
$STRK dropped 10% again, those chasing highs are still stuck at the peak.
Before the direction emerges, the first movers get hit first.
#BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover?
#$BTC $OKB # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC's Q3 financial report is out, with net profit far exceeding market expectations and reaching a historic high. The core driving force is the explosive demand for AI computing power chips.
✅ Key Data: Net profit of 763.06 billion TWD, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%; revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, a year-on-year growth of 50.9%, gross margin of 66.4%, net margin surpassing 51%, with profits rising for multiple consecutive quarters. Advanced processes (7nm and below) form the revenue base, with HPC high-performance computing business continuously contributing the largest income.
💡 My thoughts:
1. AI is the core of this growth cycle. AI large models drive HPC chip orders, with 3nm and 5nm high-end process capacity in short supply. High-margin advanced processes elevate overall profitability. However, growth is highly tied to the AI industry chain; if downstream customers slow capital expenditures, it will directly impact future orders.
2. High capital investment is a double-edged sword. To meet AI orders, capacity expansion continues with capital expenditures remaining high. The heavy asset model means significant future depreciation pressure.
3. The competitive landscape remains strong, but external variables are increasing. Advanced process barriers remain difficult to shake in the short term, but geopolitical issues, customer diversification, and local manufacturing costs are uncertainties to face in the medium to long term.
Currently, AI dividends are being realized with impressive performance, but high growth is not permanent. Going forward, focus will be on tracking AI capital expenditures and the pace of advanced process capacity release. TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations.Let's talk about some thoughts and plans.
In the past few months, I've only been buying the dip and adding some long positions, without other operations. Mostly just enduring the market. The current market is mostly about endurance, and it will probably be like this in the future as well...
It's hard to make flashy moves. For ordinary people, this is the only way to actually make some money—above spot, below futures... Currently, I think this is just a small-level top.
If it pulls back to around 7.6 (if it doesn't give a chance, I'll just hold what I have), I might add some positions. Overall, I still see 9.5-10.
This is also roughly the position of the B-wave rebound. Overall, I still expect a large-level consolidation... Mainly, the index has been doing an internal wave 4 since April last year until now.
Personally, I think after the midterm elections, there will be a small rally of about 10-20 points. After that, there will be a mid-term major correction of 20-30 points (not ruling out that the correction might start directly here). So the risk is quite high... If the final expected wave comes out later, I will consider clearing my positions around 9.5-10... I think the future will be a long period of large consolidation. The big opportunity will have to wait until the Nasdaq pulls back 20-30 points... Only then will it be the chance to heavily invest in the index and various assets.Term Structure Radar
$BTC marked positive basis shows a significant shrinkage in the top bid-ask spread. The near-far basis is +2.27%, and the top bid-ask spread for near buy and far sell is +1.21%.
$ETH top positive basis scale is very small. The near buy and far sell spread is +0.6%, with the top pair scale about $198; at a scale of 10,000, this only covers about 2%.Now panic sentiment has completely spread across the Asia-Pacific market, with the KOSPI Korea Composite Index's decline further expanding, intraday drop reaching 9%, heavy selling pressure on the board, and market risk aversion sentiment sharply rising. Leading memory chip maker SK Hynix plunged nearly 12%, semiconductor sector becoming the hardest hit area, with a large amount of high-position long positions severely impacted—it's unclear how many bulls will be buried inside again 😇. The collective sell-off in Asia-Pacific stock markets is just the appetizer; tonight's U.S. stock market opening is highly uncertain, and the outlook is hardly optimistic. Additionally, two key data releases are scheduled for the evening: the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims and the PPI Producer Price Index. The continuous release of inflation chain data will directly amplify market-wide volatility. If the PPI rises again, it will further strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, and risk assets will continue to face pressure. Currently, global market logic is interconnected, with strong linkage among Korean and Japanese stock markets, U.S. tech stocks, and the crypto market. Korean retail investors hold heavy positions in both chip stocks and cryptocurrencies; after stock market liquidations, some funds will be forced to reduce crypto holdings to cover margin calls, indirectly bringing selling pressure to BTC and ETH. The crypto space, already fragile after the CPI negative impact, is vulnerable to further external negative factors, which can easily trigger contract liquidations again. Going forward, focus on two points: first, whether the tech and semiconductor sectors can stop the collapse after the U.S. market opens; second, the quality of the PPI data. At this stage, macro factors completely dominate the market, uncertainty is at its peak, so avoid bottom-fishing or gambling on rebounds. Leverage positions must be tightened, prepare in advance for sudden spikes, and avoid holding positions betting on direction. #美国CPIThe market is still paying back CPI, but RSR has been rallying for the third consecutive day. How many more bites can Upbit's bowl still offer?
Bitcoin is down 2.7% at 81,000, ETH down 2.7%, yet RSR (Reserve Rights) bucks the trend with a +10% surge to 0.00218, becoming the most eye-catching gainer on the leaderboard aside from ZK.
But to be clear, this isn’t a new story today. The real trigger was on October 12 when Upbit opened KRW and USDT trading pairs for it. Korean retail investors rushed in, pushing the price up by 50 to 60 points in a single candle that day; combined with the September community vote that changed the performance unlocking and burning mechanism, tightening supply expectations. Today’s +10% feels more like a rebound on the third day after listing. I didn’t see any new positive news after checking around.
My judgment: The first bite of meat on a new exchange listing is the most delicious; chasing on the third day usually just props up the first two batches. OKX’s 24-hour trading volume is only about 1.4 million USDT, with the main battlefield actually on Upbit’s KRW market. OKX is just a thin market following the rally. RSI is already at 67, price hugging the upper Bollinger Band; it’s easy to pump and dump, and slippage and spikes can bite.
Watch for two signals: whether it can volume-wise hold above the previous high of 0.0022 and if the Korean market volume doesn’t collapse; once Korean won buying power recedes and volume shrinks on the rally, it’s basically a short-term profit-taking window. DYOR, not investment advice.
#RSR #stablecoin #Upbit #Tesla delivery beats expectations, profit recovery becomes focus #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new highlight # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Three key variables truly determine the ceiling of the advertising business
1. Whether advertising ARPU can catch up with subscription ARPU
Currently, the per-user revenue of ad-supported plans is still lower than that of ad-free plans. The gap may only narrow if advertiser budgets, programmatic buying, and live CPM increase.
2. Whether live and highly engaging content can be continuously supplied
Live content like NFL, WWE, MLB has higher ad monetization efficiency and can boost user engagement, but it is costly and concentrated in scheduling, requiring proof of sustainability.
3. Whether AI advertising systems can improve delivery efficiency
Netflix is advancing AI-driven ad planning, creative adaptation, audience insights, and data clean rooms, which relates to whether advertisers are willing to increase budgets long-term.
Investment Judgment
Netflix's advertising business is worth tracking, but one should not focus solely on the slogan of "doubling ad revenue." More importantly, watch: ad plan ARPU, advertiser retention, live ad fill rate, programmatic share, and whether profit margins are diluted by content costs.
If these indicators improve, the ad business will shift from a "story" to "cash flow"; if not, it will only continue to support valuation rather than become a performance inflection point.