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The market is pressured by interest rate hike expectations + US bonds at 5%, causing altcoins to generally fall, but the fate of these three is completely different. Let's break it down.
$INJ is the strongest of the three brothers. The CEO has completed visits to the White House, SEC, and CFTC, the new USDC routing is also live, and the weekly chart surged over 30%. The current price of 8.9 is right on the breakout trendline, with the next target at 10. Regulatory friendliness + deflationary burn make it the only real catalyst among the three.
$TIA is considered an oversold rebound. The current price is 0.74, nearly doubled from the low at the beginning of the month, but don't get excited. It is still down over 96% from the ATH of 20.85. Holding above the 0.70 level is necessary to talk about challenging 0.90-1.0; otherwise, it's just a technical bounce.
$FIL looks the worst in the long term. It bounced from around 0.74 to 1.177, showing some recovery, but still down 99% from the ATH of 237. With 21% annual inflation and a cliff unlocking pressure in October, anything below 1.2 is considered a weak rebound, not a reversal.
My stance: INJ is watching the US market, TIA is watching for rebound continuation, FIL is left in the observation pool to gather dust. Just my random thoughts, don't follow blindly. #Netflix growth may slow down, advertising business becomes a new highlight Advertising is a necessary path for Netflix, but in the short term, it looks more like a "valuation story" rather than a "profit engine." Subscription slowdown is structural; although advertising growth is astonishing, the base is small, profit margins are relatively low, and it still faces risks in user experience and programmatic monetization execution. The key is whether the 2026 advertising revenue can meet the doubling guidance, and whether live content and AI-driven advertising can improve inventory efficiency. If achieved, Netflix can complete the shift from user growth to deepening user value; if not, the stock price will still be dragged down by subscription growth. Overall, cautiously optimistic—advertising can buffer the impact but is not yet enough to fully offset the slowdown. Why do so many people become 100 U war gods?
With 100 U combined with high leverage, if the market moves slightly in the right direction, the account can quickly surge in a short time. This thrill of rapid profit is extremely tempting, and many people get addicted to the feeling of betting small capital for high returns, always fantasizing about turning things around with one trade and repeatedly entering the market to gamble.
Xiaoma has seen many such people, even one of Xiaoma's friends is like this—always entering with 100 U, and every time it ends with liquidation.
Of course, Xiaoma has also seen miracles, fighting from 100 U to 1000 U and multiplying many times.
But Xiaoma thinks the more you play, the greedier you get. Xiaoma is like that now, really obsessed!!
However, Xiaoma believes that the money earned from small capital with high leverage is mostly a gift from the market, not true trading skill. Leverage amplifies volatility, and one sudden spike can wipe out all previous profits.
Actually, for this kind of thing, most people think if you can earn so much with 100 U, wouldn't giving them tens of thousands of U make them take off? What do you all, Hakimi, think about this?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year?
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises
#SpaceX's first full quarterly report after going public will be revealed #Amazon AWS Growth Accelerates, Can Q3 Sustain It? In Amazon's earnings report, the market is focused on AWS growth, while I’m watching how tight the free cash flow string can still hold. The faster the growth, the tighter the cash flow—this is the biggest expectation gap.
First, look at AWS: the growth is indeed fierce, with a huge year-over-year increase. Backlogged orders have surged to hundreds of billions of dollars, even selling out capacity through 2028. But you need to see how this growth was achieved. Over the past year, free cash flow went from a positive 10+ billion to a negative 7+ billion, and the full-year capital expenditure guidance smashed through 200+ billion dollars. All the operating cash earned has been poured into data centers and AI chips. This isn’t financial deterioration; it’s trading profits for future capacity, but the market’s tolerance isn’t unlimited.
Next, consider the macro linkage. Last night, CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, US Treasury yields oscillated at high levels, and Federal Reserve officials are still playing coy. High-valuation tech stocks like Amazon are extremely sensitive to interest rates. If inflation can’t be controlled and rates can’t come down, its valuation ceiling will be firmly pressed down.
The key point of the earnings report isn’t the AWS numbers themselves, but the capital expenditure guidance and marginal changes in free cash flow. If capital expenditure continues to rise while AWS growth remains flat, the market will immediately turn hostile and settle accounts. Keep a close eye on the gap between these two figures; don’t let the one-sided celebration of growth throw off the rhythm. $AMZN $xAMZN $STRK
STRK fell nearly 17%, how to avoid calling a big drop simply a bargain?
Spot price dropped about 16.92% in 24 hours, ranging from 0.07155 to 0.08796, with the price positioned at about 9% within the range.
A large drop only describes price movement and does not indicate valuation below intrinsic value. During high volatility phases, if a rebound cannot recover the previous selling pressure, lower prices may continue to appear. The usage of the Layer 2 network and token demand should also be verified separately.
Only after seeing higher lows and recovery of the upper boundary can the repair judgment be raised; if the lower boundary breaks again, caution should be maintained. One cannot infer that a quick rise yesterday means a rebound is guaranteed after today's pullback.TIA at $0.72, would you still dare to chase?
30 days doubling, 7 days up 50%, 24 hours up another 20%—everyone is shouting "The King of Modular is back." But the painful truth is: this chain with a market cap of 600-700 million dollars only generates a few hundred dollars of real daily revenue. Is this wave a narrative revaluation or a leverage-driven bubble?
Let's look at the surface first: a violent surge from the bottom, volume expansion, real money flowing in.
The $0.72 you see aligns with the mainstream market (CMC about $0.73). Up 10-20% in 24 hours, 50% in 7 days, doubled in 30 days. Still down 96% from the all-time high of $20.85, but it has rebounded significantly from this year's low of $0.28. Both daily and weekly charts have crossed key moving averages, trend turning from bearish to bullish—all indicators shout one thing: breakout confirmed, don’t miss out.
But wait.
The price has risen, but is there really usage on-chain?
First: Fibre tested 3.07 Tb/s, very impressive, but that’s lab data.
The official announcement states Fibre reached 3.07 Tb/s in end-to-end tests across 120 validators, theoretically close to 2 billion TPS. Sounds explosive.
But you need to understand: this is a benchmark test, not real mainnet traffic.
In plain terms: it’s like a restaurant claiming their kitchen can theoretically produce 1,000 dishes per hour, but actually sells only 3 dishes a day.
Narratives can paint a rosy picture, but revenue doesn’t lie. Celestia’s daily fees remain at the hundred-dollar level, annualized revenue seriously mismatched with a 600-700 million dollar market cap. This rise is not based on fundamentals, but on the story of a "high-throughput DA layer" plus capital rotation in the modular sector.
Price is set by narrative, not revenue. You’re buying the "future Celestia," not the "present."
Second: Inflation has dropped, unlocks are done, selling pressure has indeed eased.
There are some real positives this time, undeniable:
Sustainable Blob Economy proposal: inflation further reduced, currently about 2.5%, moving toward a 1.5% lower bound, strengthening the long-term deflation narrative.
Derive V3 integration: choosing Celestia as the data availability layer, a real business usage signal, not just a PPT.
Unlock pressure improved: most early unlocks completed, core contributor vesting nearing end (around late October), selling pressure structure much better than two years ago.
Rekt Capital’s call: clearly stated TIA has broken out of the "macro accumulation zone," followed by about a 50% rise.
But the painful truth—
Can these positives combined turn daily revenue from a few hundred dollars to tens of thousands?
If not, the price increase relies on leverage and sentiment, not demand.
Third: Technicals are overbought, and it’s an "overcrowded overbought."
First the good:
Breakout from a long accumulation zone, daily and weekly charts above 50-day and 200-day moving averages, trend reversal confirmed.
Now the bad, and what you should be wary of:
Daily RSI in the 70-74 overbought zone, hourly RSI once surged above 80, MACD showing high-level stagnation.
Open interest (OI) clearly rising, funding rates mixed positive and negative, intense long-short battles—some exchange shorts still paying longs, indicating crowded longs.
Liquidation heatmap dense around 0.72-0.73, volatility will be amplified.
This is not a healthy pullback followed by a second launch, but high-level digestion after a breakout.
Chasing here, one spike can wipe you out.
Long-short showdown, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Fibre test strengthens high-throughput DA narrative
Derive V3 real integration, ecosystem landing
Inflation down + unlock pressure eased, selling pressure improved
Technical breakout confirmed, Rekt Capital endorsement
Altcoin season index rising, risk appetite warming
On the other side:
Daily revenue at hundred-dollar level, valuation seriously overstretched
RSI overbought 70+, OI crowded, volatility amplified
Actual blob data release volume not increasing accordingly
FOMC on October 27-28, macro disturbance approaching
Price driven by narrative, not cash flow
Key level 0.72, just 7 cents above strong support at 0.65, and 4 cents below resistance at 0.75-0.76.
Upper resistance: 0.75-0.76 → 0.80+ round number
Lower support: 0.65-0.67 (previous breakout + moving average cluster) → 0.60-0.63 (stronger support, break means breakout failure)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Don’t chase highs. Buying at 0.72 is just carrying those who entered at 0.4. Wait for a pullback to 0.65-0.67 to stabilize, try light longs with stop loss below 0.60. If it breaks 0.60, consider breakout failed, exit decisively.
Mid-term players:
Hold above 0.70 and digest overbought, target 0.80-0.90. Logic: breakout confirmed + inflation down + unlock pressure eased. But reduce positions around late October FOMC, macro shocks hit high-beta altcoins hardest.
Long-term believers:
Celestia’s modular DA narrative is solid, but don’t build long positions in overbought zones. Wait for pullback to 0.60-0.63 or for real blob fee data to catch up, then consider scaling in. You’re buying infrastructure, not a lottery ticket.
TIA now is like SOL at the end of 2023—
Everyone said "Isn’t it just a faster chain?" but narrative + capital + ecosystem resonance pushed it from 20 to 200.
But don’t forget, SOL’s surge was supported by real TVL and trading volume. TIA now, revenue hasn’t caught up with price.
Narrative can make price fly, but only revenue can keep it from crashing.
This rise isn’t TIA’s, it’s your faith in the "modular future." Faith can be sold, but don’t only believe at the peak.
$BTC $ETH $TIA If Tesla rises in pre-market, I’ll first treat it as a “Roadster sentiment premium,” not a direct fundamental reversal.
The catalyst is clear: the second-generation Roadster was unveiled at SpaceX’s Texas site, with demonstrations of inverted, airborne, and flipping maneuvers going viral. Tesla and flying car concepts on the A-share market have already hit the daily limit up. But this kind of “engineering show” contributes almost nothing to current revenue—the Rocket version isn’t street-legal, mass production is slated for 2028, and there’s no official pricing on the website. Morningstar estimates annual sales at only about two thousand units.
What’s really worth watching is the Q3 earnings report after market close on October 21:
Deliveries of 486,500 vehicles, beating expectations but still down 2.1% year-over-year; energy storage at 13.7 GWh is a highlight.
The market is willing to give TSLA a PE ratio of over 300 times—not buying cars, but options on FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus.
So pre-market gains can be attributed to three categories:
• Short-term funds speculating on hype;
• Algorithmic trades amplifying news impact;
• Early bets on earnings gross margin/cash flow exceeding expectations.
But pre-market volume is thin, and a high open ≠ continuation at open. The “pie painted to 2028” like the Roadster is more likely to be hit by profit-taking.
The Roadster is a brand halo, not a valuation anchor;
This wave of TSLA pre-market sentiment can be observed, but trend confirmation must wait until the 21st.
#Tesla delivery beats expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus Based on my many years of experience being harvested by altcoins,
DNA's funding fee has remained high, harvesting every four hours. According to past patterns, at the latest in two days, it will become a harvest every hour, and now the market cap is very low, so it's easy to pump the price. Our short positions will serve as fuel to help it fly.
My personal advice is that shorts don't need to hold on. Once trapped, it will be as hopeless as it was for me before.
Take a bite and run; there's no need to hold long.#ETF and Whale Funds Diverge, Can BTC Hold $80,000? Folks, this is a typical case of “retail watching the macro, whales picking up bloodied chips.”
First, look at the divergence in capital flows. The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of 3,209 BTC in a single day, roughly $258 million. Institutions were spooked by consecutive CPI and PPI figures exceeding expectations, coupled with rising rate hike expectations, so they withdrew first as a precaution. But on the other side, Bitfinex data shows large holders have cumulatively increased their BTC holdings by about 60,000 since late August, with buying concentrated between $80,000 and $86,000.
What does this indicate? It means that at this level, short-term risk-averse funds and long-term allocation funds are at odds. ETFs are selling, whales are scooping up, and everyone is trading what they believe is right.
The current macro environment is indeed unfriendly. Inflation is stubborn, US Treasury yields remain high, risk assets are being crushed, BTC has dropped to the $80,000 mark, and its market dominance has returned to a high of 60%. What does this 60% mean? It means that once the market panics, funds all hide in Bitcoin for safety, altcoin funds get drained, and the entire market is waiting to see if the $80,000 support can hold.
To be frank, $80,000 is now the lifeline between bulls and bears. If these 60,000 real BTC from whales can hold, $80,000 will be the iron bottom of this wave. If the selling pressure from ETFs breaks through, then the bulls chasing highs above $80,000 will get bloodied again. $BTC $ETH $BTC key defense line near 80,000,
1. Macro is relatively mild:
Warsh did not give a clear signal for rate hikes, and the probability of a rate hike in October has been revised down to 15%. Although yields are still high, at least there is no further hawkish increase. When the macro environment does not continue to deteriorate, this price level is easier to hold.
2. Multiple technical overlaps:
The uptrend line is around 80,400, the 50-day moving average is also nearby, and the average cost of spot ETFs is roughly between 81,500 and 82,300. Breaking below this range would cause many institutional positions to turn to losses, and there have been relatively obvious buy orders on the order book.
3. On the funding side:
ETF overall outflows in October, institutional buying is not strong. But reports show whales are more inclined to accumulate this week, and the spot order book has support near 80,000. The price being supported despite cautious institutional funds indicates other buyers are active.
In terms of operation, I tend to treat this range as an observation anchor.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, making it easy to have spikes. Do you think 80,000 can hold this time? #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ The US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations (Topic 2), serving as the core suppressive force in the current market. Persistent inflation has cooled rate cut expectations, reigniting concerns about rate hikes, directly capping the valuation ceiling for risk assets.
Core assets show clear divergence: Tesla (Topics 1, 5), despite dual positives from new model releases and delivery exceeding expectations, saw its stock price rise only slightly by 0.12%, proving that micro-level positives struggle against macro headwinds; SpaceX (Topic 3) faces a harsh valuation test with its first full financial report, which could easily trigger volatility in the tech sector; Netflix (Topic 4) dipped slightly by 0.07% due to growth slowdown concerns, with its new advertising business yet to provide strong support.
In terms of capital competition, the crypto market (Topic 6) sees BTC holding firm at $80,000, but ETF and whale funds diverge, revealing cracks in the bulls; Korean stocks (Topic 7) KR200 and Samsung rebounded over 0.4%, representing technical recovery after overselling, though foreign selling pressure under a strong dollar has not fully dissipated.
Overall, current capital is cautiously defensive between "certain earnings" and "high-risk events." Macro liquidity tightening will continue to suppress high-valuation assets, with the market showing short-term oscillation and tug-of-war.
The current market exhibits an extreme "long-short game" characteristic: macro liquidity tightening (bearish) and micro earnings realization (bullish) pull against each other. Capital shows clear "short-sighted" and "risk-averse" sentiment, favoring trading certainty (such as Tesla deliveries) rather than blindly chasing high risk (such as SpaceX earnings, BTC). In the short term, the market will continue to oscillate amid the tug-of-war between macro data and earnings season.The 0.7 share swap ratio is a sketch that has not undergone structural mechanics verification. The so-called SpaceX-Tesla all-stock merger scenario thrown out by Barclays analysts before the December 6 annual shareholders' meeting, from my professional perspective, is essentially a conceptual design scheme built on quicksand. Without formal negotiations, board resolutions, or any regulatory filings, with all three foundation survey reports blank, daring to draw a misaligned load-bearing wall with 37% economic rights against 56% voting rights is not aggressive; it is a congenital defect at the structural system level.
First, look at the load transfer path of this building. An all-stock swap means using Tesla's public market valuation as the base slab to bear SpaceX, a private heavy structure yet to be listed. Two completely different seismic design standards are forcibly welded onto the same raft foundation, making differential settlement almost inevitable. The 0.7 swap ratio seems more like estimating reinforcement by area on the drawing rather than configuring it according to actual stress distribution. Once the valuation anchor shifts, the shear force redistribution of this load-bearing wall will directly compress the minority shareholders' space into negative values.
AI, robotics, energy, and space synergy sounds like a supertall complex of four towers connected by sky bridges, visually stunning, but the damping design and wind load coupling at the sky bridge nodes are the core factors determining whether it can stand. Currently, on this master plan, the support positions of the sky bridges are not marked, and the construction sequence is not arranged, yet the topping-out time is announced to be possibly within 6 to 12 months — in any supertall project I have handled, this would be a depth issue that would be directly sent back for rework during the drawing review stage.
Next, look at market-linked instruments like $xIREN; they are more like temporary scaffolding priced in waves around the main building's construction progress. When the main contract and even the construction permit are not yet in sight, the market sentiment for scaffolding rental can heat up first, but the stability of the scaffolding never depends on itself; it depends on whether the wall it is attached to will really be poured with concrete. Regulatory review is a strict rule of the planning bureau, valuation disputes are settlement disagreements in cost consulting, and minority shareholder rights are like sunlight rights lawsuits from adjacent plots. If any one of these three gets stuck in the approval window, the entire construction schedule must be rearranged.
The structural safety factor of $xIREN currently entirely depends on a construction blueprint that has not yet been stamped. #spacextesladealscenario Price falls but bulls don't retreat: Why has the DOGE long-short ratio stayed around 2.5?
Let's look at a set of contradictory data. The price has been falling steadily since late September, but the long-short account ratio has remained high: between 2.38 and 2.57 over the past ten days, and 2.51 on October 16. Long positions are two and a half times the short positions.
$DOGE price is dropping, but bulls aren't backing off. Why? My understanding: a significant portion of the bulls are habitual community accounts who play dead during the dip, neither closing nor adding positions. This loyalty is a characteristic of Dogecoin, but it comes at a cost.
The cost is twofold. During rebounds, accounts waiting to break even or take profits pile up pressure layer by layer above; during dips, crowded long positions are prone to triggering forced liquidations. The forced liquidation data on October 15 shows this clearly: about $5.86 million long positions liquidated versus only about $210,000 short positions, nearly a 28:1 ratio. Every bit the price moves down, it's the longs getting cleaned out.
So I don't see this number as bullish. It shows confidence remains, but also that there are too many people on the bus, and it can't speed up.
I'm one of those in the 2.5 ratio group myself, and I won't pretend otherwise. Holding without moving is my choice, but it's important to realize: crowded directions are never comfortable when they start moving. When this ratio drops, the market will actually feel lighter.A cold air mass from Frankfurt is pressing down along the bottom of the institutional funds' troposphere, and the barometer needle has already started to tremble.
The observation report is straightforward: Deutsche Bank plans to open Bitcoin and Ethereum asset custody vaults for institutional and corporate clients within Germany in a matter of weeks, with USDC, EURC, and EURAU also lining up to enter; by 2027, the front will advance into Asia, bundled with a full set of precipitation forms including stablecoin exchanges, tokenized deposits, and digital bonds. On the same weather map, Standard Chartered is laying BTC/ETH trading channels under the feet of qualified professional investors in the UAE and connecting RLUSD custody; meanwhile, BNY Mellon has expanded its European vaults again. Three high-pressure centers are forming simultaneously—this is not a localized thunderstorm, but a regional circulation reorganizing.
But what meteorological stations fear most is never a strong system, but a clash between the model and reality.
The "within weeks" timeframe is considered a short-term forecast in meteorological terms, which tests observation density the most. Compliance approvals, key management, audit standards—each layer is an inversion layer; once covered, the updraft is suppressed mid-air. Launching custody is not just about issuing an announcement; it involves building stations, deploying points, connecting sounding balloons, and running assimilation; missing data at any step means the initial field is skewed, and no matter how many ensemble members are stacked later, it’s all in vain.
More crucial is condensation. Institutional demand is just water vapor; for vapor to fall as precipitation, condensation nuclei are necessary. Custody accounts, clearing channels, stablecoin-to-fiat exchange interfaces, and tokenized deposit bookkeeping rights—these are the condensation nuclei. Without them, even if relative humidity reaches saturation, it’s only clouds, not reaching the ground, let alone continuous precipitation like "sustained inflow." The 2027 Asian expansion is essentially a monsoon advancement timetable, and monsoons never look at calendars—they look at sea temperatures—regulatory sea temperatures, institutional balance sheet temperatures, and whether the subtropical high pressure over dollar liquidity will yield.
There is also a teleconnection that cannot be ignored. The US stock token $xIBM seems separated from Europe’s custody system by an ocean, but they are actually in the same circulation: when traditional custody giants incorporate crypto assets into standard vaults, the valuation anchor for tokenized stocks shifts from narrative to infrastructure availability. When a high-pressure ridge strengthens on one side, a low-pressure trough deepens on the other.
The risk points are already written on the sounding chart: wind shear is increasing—there is a speed mismatch between policy tone and product rhythm; visibility is decreasing—the market reads "planned launch" as "already launched"; ensemble forecast divergence is high, with paths differing by several hundred kilometers among members.
On the duty room radar echo, this front has already crossed the ridge; whether it will land as continuous heavy rain or a false alarm remains to be seen in the next sounding chart. #deutschebankcustody"$ETH Drops Below 2400, But Are the Bears Digging Their Own Pit?"
$ETH just fell below 2400, down 2.2% in 24 hours. ETF net outflows hit 190 million for two consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA withdrawing 44.39 million. Even more painful, a whale who entered at 4600 USD held for a year and deposited 15,400 ETH to the exchange, expecting a loss of 13.45 million USD upon exit. The group chat is full of "ETH is done."
And then?
The liquidation heatmap lights up: if ETH breaks 2537, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs reaches 862 million USD, nearly twice that of long positions below. Wash stated at the IMF that he refuses to predict an October rate hike, with the probability dropping from 27% to below 15%.
The bears might be digging their own pit.
Weekend liquidity is thin; 2420 is the watershed. Holding it means 500 million shorts are just a fuse. Breaking it, bulls shouldn't celebrate too early.
Let's discuss in the comments—this round of ETH, did you cut losses or hold on?
Not investment advice, DYOR
#SpaceX's first full quarterly report post-IPO will be revealed
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies Deutsche Bank's planned BTC and ETH custody in Germany is notable because the roadmap extends beyond safekeeping to stablecoin conversion, tokenized deposits and digital bonds. That can make custody a gateway to broader balance-sheet activity, not just an asset-storage offering.
The open question is execution: a launch within weeks must still translate into assets under custody and durable inflows.
#DeutscheBankCustody #SpaceXQ3Earnings am still bullish on SpaceX, but I won't chase above 155 at all.
On October 13, it closed down 4.21%, retreating from 171.09 on October 5 to around 157.
This drop is not due to fundamentals: the FAA just accepted its environmental assessment application this Tuesday to increase the annual launch limit at the Starship base from 25 to 456 times, and annual landings to 912 times; Falcon 9 just completed its 35th commercialIt now feels more like a post-shakeout game phase rather than a chasing-the-rally phase. Are you also watching those two liquidation concentration zones? Last night during the review, I stared at BTC's liquidation heatmap for a long time, and the more I looked, the more I felt this round of volatility isn't just about directional choice; it's more like a cleanup targeting high leverage. From 84K down to 79.7K, about $1.05 billion worth of long positions were wiped out; then the rebound back near 82.8K cleared about $350 million more. Both sides had positions taken out, with a strong sense of rhythm. What concerns me more is the derivatives structure itself. The liquidation cluster from 83K to 87K above is about twice the size of the one from 77K to 81K below. This means that once the price pushes upward, short covering and forced liquidations will create a self-reinforcing pulse that looks like "the market is back," but in essence, it might be a brief pulse caused by leverage squeeze, not necessarily indicating a real strengthening of spot buying. Conversely, the lower area is not a safety cushion either; once it breaks below 81K, long stop losses and liquidations will stack up, making the decline faster than expected. So now I break my positions into very small parts. The impulse to chase longs exists, but I only consider it when the upper liquidation cluster is confirmed to be absorbed and spot trading volume supports it; if it just spikes up with shrinking volume, I tend to treat it as a window to reduce positions rather than add. For altcoins, I'm not in a hurry to switch yet, because in this derivatives-driven oscillation, BTC's volatility will first transmit to high beta targets, and before the rhythm stabilizes, altcoins' "catch-up rallies" can easily become traps.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus TG did not hand over chat records, but it did hand over clues to your identity
This time, Telegram provided the US authorities with specific users' phone numbers, user IDs, account names, as well as the last login IP addresses and times.
TG claims this disclosure was "voluntary," while also stating it does not recognize US judicial jurisdiction and did not hand over chat content or contact information.
But the question is—does not handing over chat records mean user privacy is protected?
In September 2024, Telegram already adjusted its policy to disclose phone numbers and IP addresses of users suspected of criminal activity under qualifying law enforcement requests. This incident shows that the policy is no longer just on paper but is being implemented in specific cases.
This matter is especially worth attention in the crypto community. Many project communities, trading groups, and bots rely on TG to operate. Even without chat content, phone numbers, IPs, and login times can be cross-verified with other data to gradually pinpoint real identities.
TG may not have completely abandoned privacy principles, but it clearly does not want to engage in endless confrontation with judicial authorities for absolute privacy. For the platform to survive, it must draw a line between user privacy and regulatory pressure.
What really needs to be distinguished is: privacy does not equal anonymity, and chat content security does not equal identity security.
You can still use TG as before. But if you have always regarded it as an absolutely anonymous refuge, this incident should make you reconsider. The platform can protect what you say, but that does not mean it will never let others know who you are.The crypto market over the weekend is chillingly cold 🥶
Did you catch last night's drop?
I didn't!!!
On October 16, the spot crypto ETFs faced an awkward situation with all four major assets ($BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL) experiencing net outflows.
Specifically, Bitcoin saw an outflow of $82.39 million, Ethereum $69.68 million, and even Ripple and Solana were not spared, as funds voted with their feet.
And that's not all. BTC's net outflow in the past 24 hours reached as high as 49.9756 BTC, with outflow rates soaring over 70% compared to 24 hours and 7 days ago. Institutional buying has retreated, macro risk-off sentiment is rising, and the market clearly can't hold up.
The most critical risk is from leveraged positions.
Currently, BTC is hovering around $81,500, but the "long liquidation danger zone" at $78,000 below is very close;
ETH is around $2,425, with a dense liquidation line at $2,255 looming overhead.
If the market dips even slightly, a chain reaction of liquidations among highly leveraged longs is likely to unfold again.
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ $APR looks weak this week, with only 6 days left until the cliff unlock on October 23rd. The scale is close to 47% of the already unlocked circulating supply, and the supply pressure is right in front of us. We backtested similar large unlocks, and about three-quarters of these events underperformed the market in the week before the unlock, with pressure concentrated in the last few days. After the unlock day, there is no fixed direction. So the focus should be on the next few trading days. Within 24 hours, the price once surged to 0.04856 but was pushed back. There were 103 long positions liquidated and only 24 short positions, indicating that those chasing the rally are repeatedly shaken out. Trading is thin, with open interest only at $0.1 billion, and the support is weak. If some holders sell early, the price is likely to slide down. The RSI at 30 looks low, but with the unlock imminent, the weak zone could last a long time. It will likely remain weak until the 23rd; first, watch if 0.0435 can hold. The condition for a bullish reversal is a daily close above 0.04856 and staying there for two days, which would indicate someone is willing to take the unlock chips early, invalidating the bearish outlook.【金银一起跌麻了，央行买金、白银缺货都救不了？】
黄金$XAU 从5608美元高点回撤约27%，白银$XAG 更惨，121美元跌到56美元，跌幅超过一半。供应紧张、央行买金的故事都还在，价格却照样跳水。追高的人，这回应该体会到什么叫基本面讲得通，仓位却扛不住。
白银协会预计，2026年白银供应缺口达4630万盎司，连续第六年短缺；二季度全球央行净买金288.9吨，同比增加62%。听起来很硬，但黄金ETF同期净流出45吨，说明央行在买，不代表所有资金都在买。
这轮回调的核心，是市场开始重新计算利率、美元和拥挤仓位的成本。实物短缺是中长期支撑，不是每天托盘的买单；白银还有工业需求，一旦经济走弱，缺口故事也可能被打折。
暂时别因为跌了很多就急着抄底，也别认定贵金属牛市已经结束。先看金价能否稳住4000美元附近、ETF资金是否重新流入。供需逻辑没坏，价格却还需要真金白银来接。看盘看到凌晨两点，我突然意识到现在的跌法跟以前不一样了 你有没有发现，这轮下跌连恐慌都变得很克制？ 对比2025年10月10日那场清算，市场的骨架其实已经换了一副。那会儿主导边际定价的是散户杠杆，一有风吹草动就是连环踩踏。现在ETF资金成了新的边际买家，背后是合规约束和风控流程，它们不会像散户那样一害怕就砸盘。所以直观感受是，下方空间被托住了，跌起来没那么失控。 但这里有个容易被误读的地方：抗跌不等于安全。 我盯着衍生品结构看，ETF的申赎是集中式的，一旦出现持续净流出，对价格的冲击反而更突然、更钝重。散户是慢慢割，机构是开门就走。波动率不会因为资金变"聪明"就消失，只是从高频踩踏变成低频重击。这是我最近调整仓位节奏的核心原因，不再按过去的恐慌模式去接，而是等资金流数据确认再动。 第二个信号更值得警惕。钱在往BTC和ETH聚，山寨的盘口深度肉眼可见地变薄。这不是普通的板块轮动，是定价权在收缩。ZEC这类标的偶尔有叙事脉冲，但缺乏持续买盘承接，追进去很容易被闷在里面。我现在对山寨的仓位纪律比以前严得多，宁可错过，也不想在薄流动性里被卡住。 偏多的路径是清楚的：只要ETF通道保持净流入，BExplosive signal! The median of US stocks plummeted 15%, the AI cover is barely holding, crypto circle beware of a follow-up drop!
Don't just focus on BTC sideways movement, the real thunder is in US stocks!
On October 17, US Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices all rose, signaling an "invisible rate hike" in financial conditions. The median of the S&P 500 has retraced 15% from its 52-week high, the equal-weighted index lags the market-cap weighted index by about 6% over six months, equity risk premium has fallen below zero, all propped up by AI giants supporting the index.
Personal view: This is not an ordinary correction, but a comprehensive valuation compression of risk assets due to rising real interest rates. Bitcoin now is just a high-beta tech stock; don't expect an independent rally.
Market impact: If large tech stocks continue to drop, BTC is unlikely to remain unaffected; if ordinary stocks rebound, that would indicate risk appetite recovery. Players should not rush to bottom-fish; watch whether the 10-year Treasury yield has peaked and if BTC falls along with tech stocks; falling together means deleveraging is not over.
If 82,000 is lost, where to next? Stay tuned, next issue will unpack the on-chain leverage map. $SNDK $AAPL $NVDA #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus In this conversation between Jin Ming and Sun Yuchen, several points are worth serious study.
He is concerned about the impact of AI and quantum computing on Bitcoin's security system.
But he hasn't sold his core Bitcoin holdings.
He said he had previously reduced 80%–90% of his ETH position.
At the same time, he remains cautious about the short-term valuations of AI hardware sectors such as the Nasdaq, storage, and optical modules.
Interestingly, the direction he truly favors is shifting from computing power hardware to AI applications.
The most important thing to consider here is not who will rise or fall.
Rather, it is whether the capital market will reallocate valuations after the technological revolution enters different stages.
In recent years, those who could provide more computing power easily gained a premium.
In the future, if computing power supply gradually improves, companies that can truly turn AI into sustained revenue may become the focus of the next round of competition.
However, I also disagree with directly deducing that the long-term threat of quantum computing will inevitably cause a security crisis for Bitcoin within the next year or two.
The existence of technical risks does not mean the timing is certain.
The biggest fear in investing is not missing an opportunity.
It is mistaking a long-term trend worth studying for a trading signal that will materialize tomorrow. The market this weekend looks really painful, but what's scarier than the drop is retail investors frantically bottom-fishing while the main players are withdrawing funds overnight and running away.
Today, focus on these three, with all the data laid out clearly:
What shocks me the most is $SUI, currently priced at 1.0073, just stuck at the 1-dollar integer threshold. The long-short ratio has actually surged to 2.71; retail investors all think 1 dollar is a solid bottom and are rushing in desperately, but if you look at the position volume, it has directly dropped from over 40 million a few days ago to 32 million. What does this indicate? Retail investors are taking the bags while the main players are retreating. Once it breaks below 1 dollar, all these bottom-fishers become fuel.
Next, look at $HYPE, currently at 79.98, having failed to hold the 80 mark, with the daily chart showing a steady decline from 97. The long-short ratio is 2.03; bulls are still stubbornly holding on, but the funding rate is at the floor, with no big money paying interest to the bulls. This kind of grinding decline means as long as the bulls don't die, the downtrend won't stop.
Finally, $ZEC has plunged 5.4% today, currently at 1161. It had risen too much earlier, and profit-taking is happening en masse. The long-short ratio has fallen back to 1.11, funding rates are negative, and the bears are starting to take control.
My view is simple: liquidity is already poor over the weekend, so don't be the one catching the falling knife. I won't touch any of these three. I'll wait for SUI to break below 1 dollar and wash out the market, or for HYPE to completely shrink in volume and stabilize before considering.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? Three rate boards spread out, three ways of life. BTC all have positive rates, from 0.0059% to 0.0079%—the bulls are obediently paying rent, the sentiment looks calm, but actually it's the breath left after 69% of long positions were just liquidated: currently, the bias is 51.9% bearish, but the positive rate indicates the bulls are not dead yet, just taking hits quietly. Negative values appear in ETH rates, as low as -0.0001%, then suddenly jumping to 0.0091% on the right side, fierce local battles raising short costs quietly; after a two-way squeeze, the long-short ratio is slightly bullish at 51.5%, this slight negative rate is evidence of a short-term tug-of-war. SOL is the most passive, rates close to zero, even with a slight negative of -0.0005%, leverage is pressed to extremely low; long-short ratio is 50:50, after a round of liquidations, near-zero rates mean no one is betting on direction. Rates don't lie: one is taking hits quietly, one is biting and tugging, one is just lying flat.$XAU At this point, my only regret is not going in with 100x leverage!!!
The first target level has been perfectly reached, but this is far from over.
Currently, the mainstream SOL and the three giants are all showing an up-and-down consolidation pattern. This is actually very similar to a previous market situation; those who have experienced it know that after a period of continuous up-and-down consolidation, there is suddenly a sharp surge upward. Bitcoin's rise to 80,000 was exactly like this, crossing from the 60,000s directly into the 80,000s and holding steady.
But gold is more stable; it hasn't experienced large fluctuations in consolidation. It has a slow upward trend, and the 4080 monthly line is a strong support level that is hard to break no matter how negative the news is. For those seeking stability, going long on gold is the best choice. Stop-loss should be controlled below 4080. Holding long-term is no problem. The next target is around 4250-4230.
[The above is just a personal opinion and not investment advice]
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 【CPI just exploded, and PPI dealt another blow, how can $BTC still rise?】
The US September PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 5.3%; the monthly increase was 1.3%, the largest since March 2022. The day before, CPI had already risen to 3.7%, clearly the inflation fire is not out yet.
Energy prices surged 10.8% in a single month, gasoline rose 20.3%, oil prices are a major driver. But excluding food, energy, and trade services, the related PPI still rose 5% year-on-year. You can't blame it all on oil; cost pressures are already showing signs of spreading.
With inflation uncontrollable, expectations for rate cuts are easily discounted, the dollar and interest rates may continue to suppress BTC, ETH, and high-valuation altcoins. Currently, the US stock market is also facing an AI stock sell-off, oil prices remain high, risk assets are not so easy to catch a break.
Don't rush to bottom-fish just because of the drop; first see if oil prices fall back and if long-term bond yields can stabilize. If inflation continues to heat up, I will be more cautious about a rebound; if energy prices cool down and yields fall back, then there is reason to be bullish again. Don't just focus on the candlestick chart, the macro knife is still hanging overhead.It's not that I'm stubborn, it's that this market really leaves no room for the bulls
$ETH has dropped from 2807 to 2325, I took profit on my short at 2509, now I'm waiting for a suitable point to enter a second short
Those in the comments who keep shouting "bulls will quickly return" have been quiet these past two days.
I don't like kicking someone when they're down, but those who shorted with me at the high positions probably aren't panicking now.
Why is it falling?
Because the smart money has already left.
#ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 Spot ETFs have had net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with $542 million net outflow last week, the largest since January. BlackRock's ETHA alone accounted for the majority. Institutions are withdrawing, not retail investors selling off.
CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike by year-end is 96%, and rate cuts are off the table. High interest rates are suppressing, and high valuation assets are the first to get hit.
This is not a technical correction, it's liquidity running away.
I haven't opened a short yet. If it dares to rebound to 2450-2480, I'll add to my position. The first target is 2380, if broken then directly 2300.
Don't open a position before the right point, don't be itchy-handed, keep a long-term vision, only those who survive have the right to talk about taking profits.
If you disagree, come debate in the comments.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Brothers, the US PPI exploded again, soaring to 6.3% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected 5.3%, marking the largest increase since March 2022.
As soon as this data came out, the market's first reaction was: the Federal Reserve will turn hawkish again, and money will become more expensive. On the charts, BTC was indeed dragged along by this rhythm, dipping to around 79,800 at one point during the session, but last night the lowest still held above $80,000, indicating that the bulls' support at this level remains and there is no effective breakdown.
What does this mean for mainstream coins?
It's simple — expectations of liquidity tightening have returned. BTC, ETH, SOL, these mainstreams, like tech stocks, are risk assets most sensitive to liquidity. When interest rates rise, cheap money disappears, and leveraged longs are the first to be liquidated. Yesterday, nearly $1 billion was liquidated across the network, 90% of which were longs.
But is the trend broken? No.
Macro is the wind, the market is the wave. When the wind is strong, the waves shake, but the direction of the waves depends on key levels. BTC is now grinding repeatedly around 80,000; this level is the cost zone for large ETF holders. If it holds, there is hope; if it doesn't, it will look down to 78,000. ETH is oscillating around 2,400, SOL around 105, both waiting for a directional choice.
My trading idea: be cautious with mainstreams, but don't panic.
$BTC BTC: Hold 80,000, look up to 84,000; break below 78,000, risk increases. $ETH: 2,400 is short-term support, break below to look at 2,300. $SOL: 100 is a psychological barrier, if it doesn't break, there is still a chance! These three have taken three completely different paths this week; no one should confine the others to their own framework.
$ZEC around 1150, 24h -5.7%. The day before it surged to 1240, bounced up from 1100 but was smashed back down. On the 7th, it fluctuated between 1086 and 1340 with almost zero net change. It has risen 420% over the year, but this week is purely leveraged speculation, not a trend. The real signal is on October 20: after passing the testnet evaluation, the mainnet activation NU7 was set for 11/5. Resistance is between 1242 and 1264.
$HYPE around 80, -2.2%, down 6% on the 7th. The aid fund has repurchased 48 million tokens at a cost of $28, which is real financial backing. But November 6 is the team’s unlock date, with only 22% circulating. Historical patterns are consistent: the week before unlock averages a 5.5% rise, and it drops 3.3% on the third day after unlock. 78 is the short-term bottom.
$OKB at 117.4, +0.5%, up 4.6% over 30 days, the only positive among the three. The gas demand and deflationary burn from X Layer support it; total supply is only 21 million tokens, but it is still -48.6% from its all-time high of 228.7.
ZEC bets on upgrade, HYPE bets on unlock rhythm, OKB bets on no one selling.USDC is being prepared for entry into new markets. On October 16, the head of Circle told Reuters about plans to expand into approximately 40 countries. For the crypto market, this potentially means more channels for money inflow, but not yet a new capital influx. How to check the effect? Compare USDC issuance and redemption over a week, then the order book depth in the relevant trading pair. Even an increase in issuance may serve payments rather than BTC purchases. The expansion plan is a reason to monitor flows, not a ready signal.$NEAR: In-Depth Cycle Commentary
Current price is 5.05, having just retraced about 17% from the 6.06 high. On the 4-hour chart, it oscillates near EMA25/66, RSI has returned to 46, indicating short-term overbought conditions followed by consolidation. On the weekly chart, it just started from the 0.84 bottom, reaching a high near the previous 9.02 peak. The price now stands above all weekly moving averages, with a MACD golden cross, marking the initial phase of the main upward wave.
Capital flow: Open interest has steadily increased from the early October low to 13.94 million contracts. Funding rates have just turned positive, and the retail long-short ratio is relatively high. However, the spot market has seen a net outflow of nearly 40 million over 7 days, indicating this rally is mainly driven by contract funds, with large spot investors yet to enter on a large scale.
From a cycle perspective:
NEAR's previous bull market peak was over 9, and the lowest point in this bear market was 0.84, a 90% drop. It has now risen from 0.84 to over 6, a 7x rebound, but there is still room before the previous high of 9. NEAR remains below its prior peak, representing a secondary public chain catching-up rally.
Interpretation:
This short-term surge from just over 2 to 6 was rapid, so a pullback for digestion is normal, and chasing highs has a low risk-reward ratio. But on the weekly level, this is the start of a new main upward wave, not a pulse rally. The pattern for secondary public chains is that the leader rises first, followed by a reactive catch-up after capital flows out from the top, which then creates catch-up elasticity. Medium to long-term holders need not rush; hold through the cycle, and use pullbacks as opportunities to add positions with editorial fees.
Just a personal view; trading is ultimately self-reliant
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ $XRP
XRP has dropped more than 2%, why can't the payment narrative directly act as support?
Spot price fell about 2.39% in 24 hours, ranging from 1.2893 to 1.3534, with the price positioned at about 25% of the range.
Growth in settlement business needs to translate into token demand, requiring a clear transmission mechanism. Price decline does not equal business failure, but not all pullbacks can be explained by business vision, nor can partnership headlines be directly counted as income for token holders.
If the upper boundary is reclaimed and held after turnover, short-term support will improve; if the lower boundary continues to be lost, the weak structure should be respected first. A true fundamental revaluation requires verifiable sustained usage.$ETH's $2400 is not just a price threshold
After BTC fell below $80,000 and quickly recovered near $82,000, ETH's situation deserves closer attention. The price once dipped near $2400, while the funding side faced triple pressure: spot ETF net outflows consecutively, about $129.5 million on October 14 and about $60.3 million on the 15th; ETH reserves on exchanges increased by about 290,000 coins in the past three weeks, estimated at about $696 million at $2400 each; leverage side 24-hour liquidations were about $283 million, and the open interest contract USD value dropped about 11%, but the ETH quantity did not decrease significantly in sync, indicating some risks have not been fully released.
This does not mean ETH will necessarily continue to fall, but the quality of the rebound depends on whether the funds cooperate. The next three signals are most critical: whether $2400 can hold; whether ETF net outflows can stop; whether exchange reserves continue to rise. If the price rebounds but ETF still loses funds and reserves continue to increase, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable; only if outflows slow and spot buying improves does ETH have a more reliable basis for an upward move.
What ETH lacks is not a long-term narrative, but short-term funds to absorb selling pressure. A drop does not mean cheap; the key is whether funds are willing to keep buying after the drop. $BTC just finished defending $80,000, and ETH's $2400 may become the next focal point of the bulls and bears battle.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 This weekend, stop using Friday's ETF funds to guarantee Saturday's market.
According to Farside records, on October 16, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $82.4 million. After entering the weekend, the ETF secondary market's regular trading is closed, but crypto spot trading continues. The timing on both sides is different, so Friday's data cannot explain the sudden buying and selling over the weekend.
At this time, even if you see a large address buying, you cannot casually infer that "institutional funds are all absorbing." One participant willing to buy means other sellers might be willing to sell at the same price. What needs to be observed is whether the price can stabilize after buying and whether there is continuous trading afterward.
I think the easiest misjudgment on weekends is to prematurely declare a reversal of fund sentiment based on a small rebound. When used to watching ETF inflows and outflows regularly, it's easy to treat them as real-time directional signals. But fund statistics have their own update rhythm; actual transactions do not wait for reports.
Weekend price changes can provide clues, but don't prematurely speak for next week's buyers. Whether the price can recover after a pullback, and whether ETF subscriptions and redemptions support that recovery after the US stock market reopens, all need continued observation. Especially, don't force yourself to endure volatility you originally didn't want just because of a statement like "whales are absorbing." Whether 80,000 USD can hold, I currently don't have enough evidence to give a definite answer.
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ The same ETF data shows that the 5-day metric indicates a "narrowing outflow," while the single-day metric shows an "expanding outflow." Both conclusions are correct; the issue is that they are answering different questions. First, let's talk about the news. Using today's data as an example: the US spot ETF has a 5-day cumulative net outflow of $428.8 million (the previous period was $696.8 million, a clear narrowing), while the latest single-day net outflow is $263.2 million; the 10-day cumulative net outflow is $566.9 million. During the same period, BTC is priced at $82,116.6, with a 24-hour change of -0.36%, nearly a week change of -0.91%, and a 20-day range from $79,775.1 to $87,238.3; the Fear and Greed Index rose from 53 to 63; the US Dollar Index is 102.08, gold is 4,172.7, and the S&P 500 is 7,744.06. Next, let's look at the capital impact. The three metrics correspond to three different questions: the 5-day total answers "direction" (whether the funds are net outflow or net inflow this week), the single-day data answers "speed" (whether the outflow is accelerating or decelerating), and the 10-day data answers "trend" (whether this is a short-term fluctuation or a medium-term shift). Many seemingly contradictory views are actually just using different metrics to answer the same question. Writing the metric before the conclusion can avoid most misjudgments. Regarding BTC: according to today's metrics, the "direction" is still net outflow, the "speed" has worsened, and the "trend" is still outflow. In other words, the capital situation has not improved; only the daily intensity of outflow is lower than the previous week. Price rebounds under this condition usually lack sustainability unless the single-day metric continuously Comprehensive headline #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Look, the first half "growth may slow" has already been fully priced in by the stock price: closed at $70.53 on October 16, down 2.86% in one day, about 43.5% retracement from the 52-week high of $124.86, only 8.4% above the low of $65.08; after the Q2 earnings report, it once plunged about 9% in one day and hit the year's low, with a P/E ratio of about 21.5 times, reflecting deep pessimistic expectations.
The second half "advertising becomes a new highlight" is still an option: advertising accounts for only about 6% of revenue and needs continuous realization to be revalued; the consensus target price is $91.39, implying about 29.6% upside, but the range is $57–$135, showing huge divergence. Therefore, the stock price is at a "bottom visible but reversal not yet arrived": a downward biased slow decline, with $65 possibly being repeatedly tested.
Upside depends on advertising realization; the earnings report on October 20 regarding viewing time and advertising pace is a short-term decision point.Brothers and sisters
The BTC derivatives market shorts are aggressively increasing their positions, but this signal does not necessarily mean the market will directly decline!
BTC perpetual funding rates have rapidly dropped, reaching deep negative territory not seen since June this year.
Behind the data is the current contract market's short-selling willingness far exceeding the longs.
An interesting divergence phenomenon: the price of Bitcoin has rebounded from the low and risen, but the funding rate has dropped to an extremely low negative value. The price goes up, yet a large number of traders continue to build short positions. This contrast deserves close attention.
Once short positions accumulate excessively, as long as the coin price continues to rise, it will trigger a chain reaction: shorts hit stop losses, are passively bought back to close positions, further pushing up the price, causing more shorts to be forcibly liquidated, which is commonly called a short squeeze.
But it should be viewed rationally; a deep negative funding rate does not necessarily mean a short squeeze will occur. Arbitrage operations and hedging also cause such data changes.
Key points to observe going forward: if BTC continues to strengthen, total open interest declines, and funding rates gradually recover, it means shorts are exiting the market.
Healthy rallies do not require everyone to be bullish. Sometimes, clustered shorts can actually become a driving force for the market. Do you think these concentrated shorts entering the market will ultimately profit as they hope?
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed $BTC $ETH $ZEC What’s next for BTC? The bulls are quietly adding positions, and my long orders remain unchanged.
Yesterday I predicted that after the bearish news was fully absorbed, the price would rise. However, it first dropped to 79,800 before pulling back to 82,600, which felt really frustrating.
Compared to yesterday, the bullish strength is increasing:
Long position liquidations below: 1.5 billion → 2 billion
Short position liquidations above: 2.5 billion → 1.2 billion
Keep an eye on these prices:
81,500: First dense zone; breaking this triggers forced liquidation
80,000: Buffer thins, prone to chain liquidations
83,000: First cluster of short positions above
83,800: The fiercest squeeze breakout
Scenario analysis:
Downside: Break 81,500 → 80,000 long zone, thin buffer, chain forced liquidations
Upside: Hold above 83,000 → 83,800 → 84,500
My view: The bearish news has mostly been digested, data favors the bulls, leaning bullish. No further explanation, my longs remain.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? $BTC ETH hasn't reclaimed 2500, and the longs on board are almost full
As of noon Beijing time, ETH is around 2427, with OKX 24-hour high at 2493.89 and low at 2393.33. The price hasn't even reclaimed 2500, but the contract side is heating up first.
Binance long accounts account for 74.61%, Bybit 71.82%, with funding rates on both sides at 0.005251% and 0.006156%, respectively, both still positive. This indicates most accounts are betting on a rebound, but one detail can't be ignored: this counts the number of accounts, not the position size.
Looking at active buying, Binance's buy ratio is only 50.4%, Bybit even lower than 50%. Simply put, many longs don't equal strong real capital.
Currently, ETH is stuck between two liquidation zones: long risk piled near 2397 below, short pressure near 2501 above. My judgment is clear: no chasing before a volume-backed reclaim of 2500; if it breaks below 2393 first, crowded longs may be liquidated in a round. Only after firmly standing above 2500 will I consider following.
The biggest fear for a rebound is never that no one is bullish, but that the market hasn't confirmed yet, and the seats are already full.
$ETH #OKXOrbitTopicIsHere #OrbitDaily This whale's operation is very informative: it continues to add positions while in a floating loss state, but the asset it is adding (ONDO) is precisely the one with the most concentrated fundamental risk among the three.
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📍 First, let's look at the panorama: the whale's current real profit and loss
Token Holdings Cost Price Current Price (10/17) Floating P/L
UNI 1,014,000 $8.79 $7.39 About -$1.42M
ONDO 2,455,000 $0.4662 About 0.45 Slight loss or break-even
LTC 12,400 $67.86 $63.45 About -$55K
UNI is the absolute heavy holding and also the absolute disaster zone—1,014,000 tokens at a cost of $8.91M, current price $7.49M, just this one alone has a floating loss close to $1.55M; the vast majority of the loss is contributed by UNI. The ONDO accumulation has not changed the overall profile of this address: “deep UNI lockup, slight LTC loss, slight ONDO loss.”
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🎯 The core contradiction of ONDO: the whale is buying, but the unlocking sword is hanging overhead
The whale's cost at $0.4662 is near the current price level, with almost no safety margin. ONDO's current price is repeatedly testing the 0.45 range; $0.42 is a short-term key support. If it breaks below, the next support is at $0.40, then the trendline area at 0.37. The daily RSI is about 42, MACD momentum is weakening, and technically it does not support the narrative of an "immediate reversal." When did MEME coins on SOL start becoming difficult to trade? I think there are two key points:
1. Pumpfun no longer relies on Raydium and created its own exchange. Newly launched coin pools all stay on their own DEX, trying to capture all the profits. This year, Raydium also jointly launched a launchpad, increasing the number of launch projects, making it harder for retail investors to operate.
2. Added creator fees. Previously, playing MEME basically had no taxes or fees, and the project team couldn't interfere with trading, making trading very pure. Now various trading taxes keep emerging, and after the project team sells their coins, they can still continuously collect fees, greatly diminishing the trading experience.
I really miss the atmosphere of playing MEME on SOL two years ago, when all you needed to watch were the narrative, volume, and K-line.$BTC BTC short-term holders' positions have risen to 4.08 million coins. On the market front, the Fed's rate hike expectations for October have fallen to about 17%, leading to a recovery in risk appetite. Fed Chair Powell made no prior commitments regarding October or December policies; trading prices indicate the market prefers to wait for more economic data.
However, inflation pressure remains: CPI year-over-year at 3.7%, PPI year-over-year at 6.3%. The Fed is merely postponing rate hikes, so inflation victory is far from certain, and the market tends to overlook the potential tightening risk in December.
For BTC, the decline in rate hike probability brings valuation recovery but is unlikely to generate sustained buying. If oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, or inflation expectations rebound, rate hike expectations could quickly rise again.
Going forward, the focus should not only be on the October meeting but also closely monitor December rate pricing. Near-term expectations are easing while long-term remain hawkish, so assets will continue to fluctuate. It is possible to trade on this round of expectation recovery, but positions must reserve tolerance for data reversals.
#Bitcoin #FedOctoberRateHikeProbabilityDropsToAbout17%
Main adjustments: compressed repetitive expressions, streamlined the logic of "expectation recovery — inflation risk — BTC impact — subsequent observation," and highlighted "potential December tightening risk" and "position tolerance" more prominently.$TIA's gain yesterday was quite impressive, but a one-day increase only indicates short-term capital concentration and does not mean that the long-term supply and demand have changed. Ajian does not believe that the entire modular blockchain sector has regained long-term capital. The same applies to $EIGEN; yesterday's rise seems more like a spread from meme to infrastructure assets and is not enough to be called a sector rebound. If the market truly prefers infrastructure again1. The necessity of the SpaceX and Tesla merger lies in whether the two companies can integrate to reduce the cost of orbital data centers. Whether SpaceX's orbital data center and related business model can succeed ultimately comes down to an economic calculation. Analyst Wood Mackenzie estimates that currently, building a 1GW orbital data center costs about $170 billion, more than three times that of an equivalent-scale ground data center, with satellite and launch costs accounting for about 60%. Regardless of how many advantages orbital computing has in terms of energy, land, and grid constraints, as long as the unit computing power cost is significantly higher than ground solutions in the long term, large-scale commercialization will be difficult. So the question becomes: for producing the same unit of effective computing power, when can the full lifecycle cost of orbital deployment approach or even fall below that of ground deployment? 2. The current roadmap provided by SpaceX can be summarized into three things: reducing launch costs, improving the performance-to-power ratio of chips, and turning satellites and computing equipment into large-scale industrial products through vertical integration. Tesla happens to have the other half of the capabilities that SpaceX lacks here. In November 2025, Musk mentioned Tesla's AI5 chip in a conversation with Ron Baron. AI5 is mainly aimed at autonomous driving and Optimus inference tasks, and Musk's goal at the time was to achieve two to three times the performance per watt of Nvidia chips in these tasks US Stock Real Trading 11
As of 0:00 yesterday, QQQ dropped 1.56%, while I rose 0.16%. This week, the US stock market fell 5.52%, and I gained 2.79%, outperforming the market by over 8 points. Overall, this week has been quite good.
It's indeed not easy to make money in a bear market. The current market conditions are not suitable for being overly long. You can also refer to my position allocation: (only trading account, excluding savings) Eli Lilly 16.5%, Coca-Cola 16.5%, SK Hynix (short) 16.5%, S&P 33%, U33%. I even sold off TSMC, planning to buy it back when it drops to a better level. Overall, this is a very conservative approach. It's a pity about Eli Lilly and Coca-Cola because of historical reasons (you can refer to my US Stock Real Trading Issue 6 post), which led to very low positions previously. I didn't plan to adjust the positions later, so these two stocks rose 10 points this week, and I missed out. I only added to the positions at 7 PM last night, missing out on a lot.
That's about it overall. Have a great weekend everyone! Bro, the direction this wave took was right, but now is the profit protection phase, not the excitement phase. Unrealized gains are not profits; only closing the position counts.
Coin Entry Price Current Price ROI Key Levels/Recommendations
BTC 81744.3 81666.49 +1.90% Just broke even, signal is more important than amount; move stop loss slightly above 81750–81850, if it breaks below 80,500, take partial profits, target 80,000
ETH 2449.21 2422.83 +21.57% Strongest position, but 2400 is only about 0.95% from current price; recommend partial profit-taking near 2400, move stop loss above entry price, then try for 2380/2350 with remaining position
DOGE 0.08131 0.08075 +13.73% Move stop loss slightly above 0.0813; take partial profits between 0.0795–0.078, don’t wait to sell all at 0.078
Total unrealized gains about 18.86U, all three positions short in the same direction with high correlation, diversification is false diversification, one rebound will cause simultaneous pullback. The three most important things to do now:
1. Move all stop losses to break-even: BTC just turned positive, easiest to get stopped out by a sudden spike; ETH/DOGE already have profits, at least push stop loss slightly above entry price.
2. Take profits in batches, don’t be greedy for the last bit: ETH at 2400, DOGE at 0.0795–0.078, BTC at 80,500–80,