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【97% of liquidations in the last hour are shorts, market sentiment rapidly reverses】
The most notable anomaly today is not in the price but in the liquidation structure: In the last hour's total liquidations of $28.18 million, as much as 97% ($27.42 million) came from short positions, while long liquidations were only $760,000.
1. What changed? On a 24-hour scale, long liquidations still account for the majority at 59.9%, but the short-term structure has sharply shifted. ETH rebounded to $2400, BTC followed to around $82,000, and leveraged short positions betting on a decline were concentratedly liquidated.
2. Why is this noteworthy? The total 24-hour liquidations of $312 million increased by only 2.41% compared to the previous day, so volume hasn't expanded, but the direction is extremely skewed, indicating this is a precise short squeeze rather than a trend liquidation.
3. What observation does this support? Currently, it supports a "short-term short squeeze recovery" rather than a trend reversal. There is thick liquidity accumulated in the $83,000-$84,000 range, which could trigger more short liquidations once reached.
Next, the focus is on whether $83,000 can be effectively broken — if shorts continue to be squeezed, the liquidity above will be consumed faster; if the price stalls near $83,000, the short squeeze momentum may fade. After the short squeeze, will the momentum continue or die out? Feel free to discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Experienced [ETF hemorrhaging $910 million, holding firm at 80,000]
A divergence worth noting: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows of about $910 million over two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative net outflow of $615 million in October. Yet BTC price remains near 82,000, showing no signs of panic-driven breakdown.
1. What happened? Funds are withdrawing, but the price hasn't collapsed. More subtly, the current price is already below the average buy-in cost of $82,300 estimated by ETF investors.
2. Why pay attention? This means that funds entering via ETFs over the past two months are overall at an unrealized loss. If redemptions accelerate, the 80,000 level will face a real stress test.
3. Which observation is supported? Currently, the evidence favors "stock accumulation" rather than a "trend reversal." Funding rates remain positive, open interest is declining, leveraged longs are still paying to hold positions, but the continued ETF outflows indicate incremental buying has not returned.
Next, focus on two key points: whether 80,000 can continue to hold, and whether ETF outflows show signs of convergence. Whichever loosens first may determine the starting point of the next market phase. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC $ETH #Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus $xNFLX Netflix's current situation can be summarized in one sentence: the "old story" of subscription growth is indeed slowing down, but the "new story" of the advertising business is moving from concept to verifiable scalable monetization. The key point is that both are true simultaneously, not mutually exclusive. The slowdown in growth is real but needs accurate attribution Q2 2026 revenue was $12.56 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, marking the second consecutive quarter of slowdown. The full-year revenue guidance is $51–51.4 billion, with growth rates between 13% and 14%. What unsettles the market more is the engagement metric: member viewing time in the first half of the year grew only 2%, while YouTube's share of TV viewing in the U.S. reached 14.2%, nearly double Netflix's 7.8%. However, there is an easily confused judgment here: Netflix's main competitors in the slowdown are no longer Disney+ or HBO Max, but free, unlimited supply attention platforms like YouTube and TikTok. This means Netflix is not facing a "streaming war" but a structural competition for users' screen time. Within this framework, simply measuring Netflix by "subscription user growth" no longer fully fits its new growth logic. The advertising business is a real second curve and is progressing faster than most expect The scale of the advertising business is rapidly increasing. The 2026 advertising revenue target is about $3 billion, nearly double the approximately $1.5 billion in 2025; the number of advertisers exceeds$BNB Massive Burn Implemented: Is the Positive News Fully Priced In, or a Bull Trap by the Main Players?
The more prosperous the news, the more cautious the market needs to be. The $1.197 billion burn volume is a solid positive, but the long-term capital flow is completely opposite.
Data Analysis:
On the 1-hour chart, BNB rebounded from 706 to around 725. However, the capital flow shows a severe volume-price divergence: a net outflow of 229 million U over 15 days, and 93.01 million U outflow over 7 days. Currently, 77% of the chips are highly concentrated, accompanied by a "short-term inflow, long-term outflow" divergence signal. This indicates the short-term rebound is driven by retail and speculative funds, while the long-term main players are using the burn news to distribute holdings at highs.
Main Players' Intent:
The liquidation map shows a dense short order wall in the 736-746 range above. The main players will likely push the price up to around 736 to trigger a short squeeze, creating a false breakout to attract chasing buyers, then reverse to dump the price.
Trading Strategy: Avoid chasing the price at the current 725 level.
For holders: It is recommended to reduce long positions at the 730-735 resistance zone to lock in profits.
For non-holders: Wait for a pullback to the 710-715 support zone to stabilize, or lightly short on the right side if it rebounds near 736.
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus The largest ZEC bull has just made a move again!
In the past three hours, this mysterious whale directly dropped $7.2 million, adding 6,126 ZEC in one go, instantly increasing his holdings by 57.5%. Notice the details: he did not choose to aggressively buy at market price but used the TWAP algorithm to accumulate in batches, locking the average price at $1,176. Currently, he holds nearly 17,000 ZEC, with a total value approaching $20 million.
What’s most intriguing is that this whale is still showing an unrealized loss of over $300,000 on paper. But he seems completely unfazed; the liquidation price is as low as $838, providing a very thick safety cushion from the current price, making his position rock solid. He started building his position in July and has not sold a single coin since establishing it in September. Besides ZEC, he also invested in NEAR and PUMP. This kind of resilience, ignoring short-term fluctuations, is the true nature of a top hunter. #Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? October 19 QCP Analysis: Last week, Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly between $80,000 and $83,000, with the $80,000 support holding firm, outperforming pressured tech stocks. On the macro front, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is favorable for risk assets, but funds have not yet flowed massively into the crypto market. Option volatility is relatively low, and short-term prices may continue to remain locked within the current range. Going forward, if deleveraging spreads in the stock market, the $80,000 support will be tested; if the dollar weakens, an effective breakout of the $80,000-$88,000 range could trigger intense volatility.
Key Points Version (for quick reading)
Market Status: Bitcoin fluctuated last week between $80,000 and $83,000, with the $80,000 support holding firm, showing more resilience than tech stocks.
Macro Environment: The decline in U.S. Treasury yields provides support; funds rotated from the AI sector to defensive sectors but have not massively flowed into the crypto market.
Options Signal: Implied volatility is below average, with market makers’ positions temporarily locking the price within the current range.
Key Follow-up: On the downside, watch if the $80,000 support can hold; on the upside, an effective breakout of the $80,000-$88,000 range will trigger a sharp price revaluation.
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? $BTC $ETH $SOL 日本这次不讨论炒币，讨论的是把整个国家的钱袋子搬上链。
日本金融厅公布“AI 时代链上金融论坛”第一次会议纪要：金融担当大臣挂帅，数字厅、财务省、央行、银行家协会全到场，明年初交中期报告和路线图。
三个实动作：一是国债上链——财务省 10 月 8 日开专家研究会，三种方案：国债抵押基金受益权上链、现有结算换区块链记账、原生发行链上国债。今年 8 月 10 年期国债收益率冲到 2.95%、创 1996 年以来最高，债务压力逼着东京找新买家。二是稳定币发补贴——数字厅研究用稳定币和代币化存款发公共资金，育儿、食品补贴可指定用途，等于给财政支出装了可编程阀门。三是央行 DLT 沙盒——日本央行测试央行活期存款直接链上结算。
我觉得：欧美还在争“加密是什么资产”，日本已经跳过争论直接施工。国债、补贴、央行结算三件一起上链，等于把主权信用数字化从头做到尾——这是亚洲第一次把链上金融写进国家工程。
风险官方自己也列了：国债一旦 7×24 小时交易，暴跌更难按住。
#JapanFSAPublishesOnChainFinanceForumMinutes
#日本 #稳定币To pour some cold water first, I won't directly take the model topping the call rankings as a positive sign for the crypto AI sector. MiniMax's official short video captioned "Welcome back, Space Bunny" is seen as claiming the anonymous model Space Bunny; since its launch in late September, it topped the daily token call volume charts on OpenRouter and OpenCode within 3 days, and the M3.1 Flash official version is also about to be released.
I am more cautious about the market conflating "model popularity" with "value of related tokens." There are two reasons: the Token in token call volume refers to the text units processed by the model, not on-chain tokens, so no matter how impressive the rankings are, you cannot directly infer which coin will benefit. Call volume also does not equal commercial quality; without disclosure of paid retention, call costs, and revenue, I cannot judge demand sustainability based solely on ranking surges, nor am I willing to prematurely calculate revenue for the entire crypto AI sector.
Of course, being bearish on this interpretation does not mean denying the model's strength. If after the official version release it can continuously retain paying users and show verifiable on-chain product adoption and revenue transmission, I will change my view; these are my observation conditions, not something that has already happened. Regarding this news's impact on the crypto AI sector, are you bullish or bearish? Please explain your reasons, especially clarifying how model call volume translates into token value.Today BTC has reclaimed above $82,000, once approaching $82,900 in the morning. On the surface, the market seems to be recovering. But when looking at the price, ETF capital flows, and Federal Reserve policies together, a concerning contradiction emerges: the price is rebounding, yet institutional funds have not clearly returned. This means whether the current rise marks the start of a new market phase or is just a short-term recovery driven by speculative funds still requires more evidence. 1. Price is rising, but institutional funds are flowing out As of the latest complete trading day data available, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $82.4 million on October 16, with a cumulative net outflow of approximately $228.6 million over the past week. ETH’s capital performance is even weaker, with the spot ETH ETF experiencing a net outflow of about $320 million in the same week. This data set is worth noting. If the market had formed a strong consensus bullish expectation, one would typically expect not only rising prices but also spot demand and institutional capital participation. Of course, ETF outflows do not mean all institutions are selling, nor can a single week’s data alone determine that the mid-term trend has turned bearish. But at least it indicates that this rebound cannot simply be attributed to a full return of institutional funds. 2. Why can BTC still rebound? An important variable is the market’s expectation of the Federal Reserve’s next move. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, indicating inflationary pressure remains. However, the latest market reports show that traders’ expectations for a rate hike by the Fed on October 28 have significantly cooled. The market is concerned Meta's latest earnings report is quite likely to slightly exceed revenue expectations, with advertising and AI tools still holding up. However, the profit figures will probably look "ugly" due to a one-time legal settlement cost of about $10 billion—don't be scared by the EPS; core earnings excluding this are actually decent.
What truly determines the stock price is not whether it "beats or misses expectations," but how aggressively AI spending burns cash: annual capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion, with free cash flow possibly turning negative. The market's biggest fear is that guidance will be raised further. So the conclusion is: high probability of revenue beating expectations, ugly profits are a "false alarm," and the stock's rise or fall depends entirely on the capital expenditure guidance and how convincingly the AI monetization story is told. #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 在期货市场里，同样叫“一手”，不同品种的合约乘数、保证金和风险敞口可能差得很远。我看加密资讯也有这个习惯，先把计量口径弄明白，再听别人讲行情。
Placeholder合伙人Chris Burniske这次表示，长期投资者应系统性积累高确信度资产，而非反复纠结进出场，并提出用“相对单位”理解持仓：ETH总量约1.2亿枚，SOL约6.36亿枚，后者约为前者的5.3倍。
我的判断是，这套计量思路比“早期牛市”的定性更有讨论价值，但不能当估值尺子。枚数多不代表仓位重，用供应量作分母，确实能纠正这种直觉；可网络份额也不是公司股权，不能直接对应利润分配权。加密与商品期货不同，代币还有各自的发行机制，如果分母发生变化，那么今天算出的份额也会变，这是我理解这套方法时会加上的限制。
我更愿意把它当检查持仓口径的工具，而不是市场阶段的证据。有同样从传统市场转过来的朋友吗？比较ETH和SOL的仓位时，你会看资金敞口，还是占供应量的比例，哪一种更能说明你实际承担的风险？The little lotus just shows its pointed tip, and the air force is already standing on top.
It looks vibrant, but beneath the surface, dark currents surge; a slight carelessness and it will be uprooted.
How many people look at this rebound with joy, thinking the harsh winter is over?
Don't be foolish, open your eyes and look at the market's true colors.
JPMorgan Chase is moving JPM Coin onto Ethereum; such a huge institutional-level positive news should have sent it soaring by now, right?
But look now, even the 2430 level is crossed unsteadily. Why?
Because smart money doesn't catch a falling knife. Retail investors eagerly wait to break even, while the main force is crazily distributing under the cover of the news.
The 89% short position on the right side has actually given the answer.
This is not a crowded short, this is everyone pushing a fallen wall.
I hold a short position at 2444, now steadily securing an 18% profit, with the forced liquidation line ridiculously far away.
At this position, I don't need to guess how much more it will rebound; as long as it dares to linger above 2430, once the volume dries up, I dare to continue adding to my position on the highs.
Always remember, without incremental funds entering the market, all rallies are for a more brutal dump.
The previous low at 2317 below will be tested sooner or later.
Hold your short positions well and wait for the flowers to bloom, but they are just the flowers of the shorts.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#嘉信开放BTC转账，德银布局托管 DropsTab: После дебюта фьючерсов на CME шесть из девяти криптоактивов дешевели в течение месяца. Статистика интересная в прикладном смысле тем, что сегодня CME добавляет фьючерсы на #UNI и #BCH. Это расширяет доступ институциональных участников к регулируемым инструментам на эти активы, но историческая статистика, как видим, показывает, что сам запуск торгов еще не означает рост цены. А чаще ведет к коррекции. По данным #DropsTab, доходность предыдущих девяти активов через 30 дней после дебюта нCT刚收出一根跌近8%的小时线，永续比现货低约1.66%。
欧易现货18时从0.38751收至0.35762美元，成交约121万美元。北京时间19:00，现货报0.35692美元，永续报0.351美元。20时这一期资金费率当时显示-1%，达到接口给出的下限；16时实际结算为-0.2814%。
我的判断是合约端的看空需求很强，折价和负费率都在同一方向。但20时还没结算，-1%可能变化。把它当成已付出的费用，或直接当成反弹信号，都会看早。
我更关注20时实际结算后，现货能否守住18时低点0.35633美元。若费率仍显著为负、价格不再刷新低点，再看折价能否收窄；若现货继续下探，卖压尚未退去。
$CT VIX一天跳了21.45%，而BTC正贴着80,000美元这条线走。 你手里的仓位，是按"会反弹"摆的，还是按"先活下来"摆的？ 昨晚盯着盘面，BTC最低摸到80,621附近，离整数关口只差几百美元。这个距离很微妙，因为它不是"已经跌破"，而是"还没跌破"，两种情绪在同一个价位上拉扯。ETH同步走弱，24小时跌约2.15%，现价在2,374美元附近。ETH向来像一面镜子，它不给力，说明这不是BTC一个人的事，而是整体风险偏好被压了一档。 触发点其实很清楚。10月16日VIX单日涨21.45%到19.99，标普收在7,659.44，跌1.09%，纳指跌2.15%。历史上VIX这样跳涨后，下一个周一下跌回去有25次，继续走高7次。数字看着偏乐观，但我想提醒一句：这组统计只描述频率，不描述幅度。真正让人难受的从来不是方向，而是过程中的深度。 从趋势阶段看，现在更像分歧，而不是启动。启动期的特征是缩量回踩、买盘承接干脆；分歧期的特征是同一支撑被反复测试、每次反弹都带不动成交量。BTC在80,000上方来回摩擦，就是典型的后者。这个阶段最容易被误判成"底部已现"，其实只是多空都没拿到决定权。 偏欧易合约第一年：我活下来了，靠的不是判断，是规则
做欧易合约满一年的时候，我翻了一遍自己的交易记录。账户没有翻倍，没有“悟道”，甚至有几笔现在看依然愚蠢得让人脸红。但我还在牌桌上，这本身就是一年前那个开仓不设止损的我，完全想不到的结果。
刚碰合约的时候，我和绝大多数新手走的是同一条路：觉得看几根K线就能赚钱。第一单做多BTC，20倍杠杆，浮盈的时候舍不得走，回调5%就被清算，一觉醒来本金归零。那笔钱不多，但它教会我的东西比后来任何一单都值钱：合约本身不危险，没有规则地碰合约才危险。
第二年开头，我给自己定了一条死规矩：先把亏损的上限锁死，再谈赚钱。#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Bro, what are you doing? The trading volume has surged at least 10 times, and the open interest is also increasing sharply. Could the unlocking on October 23rd be that powerful? The shorts are very rampant. Is there anyone to control the bears!
1. Price plummets + open interest rises
- Price continues to fall, open interest (OI) rises significantly → shorts are actively adding positions to short.
- The main reason is the unlocking expectation on October 23rd + poor liquidity itself, so even a small amount of selling pressure can cause a big drop.
2. Trading volume surges, but both buy and sell volumes are very high
- Both active buying and active selling have exploded to exaggerated levels (selling slightly more).
- This indicates intense trading between bulls and bears: shorts are adding positions to push the price down, bulls are bottom-fishing or holding positions, with heavy turnover back and forth.
- It’s not strong net buying, just extremely high turnover.
3. Why is the trading volume so exaggerated
- The unlocking expectation causes bulls and bears to preemptively compete.
- Contracts have leverage, so even small funds can generate large trading volumes.
- APR has a small circulating supply and a thin order book, so normal trading looks very exaggerated in the data.
In summary:
The recent sharp drop is mainly caused by shorts adding positions under the unlocking expectation. The surge in trading volume is due to intense competition between bulls and bears on a thin order book, not because of a sudden influx of huge capital. Shorts still dominate, and high volatility around the unlocking window will likely continue.白天上班没空细看，夜里把行情窗口铺开，刷到QCP这条分析，困意又退了一截🌙。让我睡不着的不是波动有多大，而是盘面看着挺稳，背后的力却未必朝同一个方向。
QCP称，上周比特币在80,000至83,000美元区间震荡，80,000美元形成稳固支撑；科技股持续承压，长期美债则受避险需求推动走强，收益率回落为风险资产提供支撑。
我更愿意把这理解成“有缓冲，没到能松口气”，而不是把$BTC的韧性直接当成独立行情的证明。科技股弱、它没跟着明显走弱，能说明相对抗压，却不能单靠这一点确认后面会怎么走。
收益率下降有利于缓解风险资产的压力，但这次背后也有避险需求，不能直接翻译成风险偏好回来了。再加上通胀数据仍强，美联储官员言论只是让加息预期降温，我觉得眼下更重要的是观察区间能否守住，而非急着给突破写剧本。
给自己提个醒：别把暂时睡得稳的盘面，当成风险已经睡着了。还有谁这个点没睡，在盯比特币的区间边界，还是美债收益率的变化？别把幸存当系统胜率。$ZEC 做多持仓中，1053.61开、1144.81标，+432.79%是“没被洗掉”的结果，不是“每次都行”的证名。
50倍下中间那些插针都该爆过，只是这单没爆。多单恋战等于站获利盘出口等踩踏，回补/止盈共振一下就跳价。
我主仓提走、杠杆卸零，不滚仓不追破位不换边，不过夜赌消息。合约极高风险可爆仓。浮盈是临时显示，可用余额才是结算；退出执行到，比发出来体面。$BTC $ETH #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 MSCI这次新规里，有个很容易看错的细节：现有成分股的移除条件，要看最近两个年度报告期。
公告写明，现有成分股需要在最近两个年度报告期都未通过相关资格筛选，才会被移除，并且MSCI还可能使用最新中期报告。这既不能理解成碰到某一项指标就立即剔除，也不能理解成从今天开始，所有公司都自动获得两年宽限。
前一种解读容易把被动卖出的紧迫性夸大，后一种解读又容易低估风险。数据观察期指向已经公布的财务记录，具体公司是否触发条件，需要逐项对照。
我能理解Strategy公开反对规则，也理解股东对潜在指数资金变化的焦虑。但规则争论和持仓判断得分开：公司认为自己不该被这样分类，并不会自动让指数提供商停止执行。
对财库股投资者而言，现在更值得做的是看清筛选条件、缓冲安排和公司已有报表，而不是把社交媒体上的“马上被踢”或“两年内没事”当成结论。
最终受影响名单计划11月11日公布。在那之前，最不缺的就是确定口吻。真正需要耐心的，是承认具体结果还要等。担心风险很正常，但别让一句省略了条件的话替你决定仓位。
#MSCI新规冲击财库股，Strategy公开反对 Isn't it surreal?
Russia and the US are actually pushing forward a diesel contract, expected to arrive in the US within 15 to 20 days.
On one hand, they are fiercely fighting on the battlefield, on the other, they are bowing their heads to do business. What does this indicate?
Face is not important; votes and inflation are the main concerns. The US is short on oil domestically and can only hold its nose to buy from Russia. This directly exposes the global energy supply chain's weak spot—the gap still exists, just barely patched up.
Yesterday, the PPI exploded to 6.3%, sending rate cut expectations straight into the ICU.
If this batch of diesel arrives smoothly in the US, energy prices might cool down a bit, and inflation data could catch a breather.
But it’s just a breather. This supply chain, patched together by "borrowing oil" from everywhere, simply can't withstand much turmoil.
As long as the energy issue remains a ticking time bomb, the Federal Reserve won't dare loosen the grip of high interest rates.
The 5.6% yield on US Treasuries stands firm, like a super pump, sucking all the liquidity out of the market. Bitcoin is stuck at 84,000, options volatility is at a five-year low, and funds are all watching.
Without liquidity, any rebound is just a castle in the air.
My stance is clear:
Don’t chase any energy concept coins; it’s pure nonsense.
Keep your spot positions solid, don’t gamble on one-sided contracts. During these macro tug-of-wars, the spikes are the harshest.
Hold U tightly in your hand, wait until all these macro landmines are cleared, wait for the market to really crash into a golden pit, then consider stepping in to pick up chips.
The overall environment is bad; being a spectator is the safest.👇
$BTC
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #Anthropic plans to raise $60 billion, IPO faces a test Currently, many traders are betting on an independent rebound in the crypto market, with wait-and-see funds awaiting a continuation of the trend
Maji Big Brother's leveraged portfolio maintains a framework of 40x short BTC, 25x long ETH, and 5x short HYPE, with new changes in various profits, losses, and funding fees: BTC short positions' floating profits continue to increase, ETH long positions' floating losses further expand, and HYPE short positions' floating losses have narrowed.
The market generally treats the recent price recovery as a signal of independent strength, but it tends to overlook the transmission of risk appetite from the US stock market. The Nasdaq previously fell sharply, and the tech sector was under pressure. On the 15th, the S&P's rebound was led by defensive sectors rather than a comprehensive recovery in risk appetite. If the Nasdaq stops falling and tech selling pressure eases, while BTC and ETH spot support becomes evident, that will be the signal that this logic is validated.
If a volume breakout occurs later or relevant news is released, the premise of this observation will become invalid.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE $SOL 爆仓全景：先扫空，再绞多
全网24小时爆仓3.3亿美元，98145人爆仓，多单1.9亿、空单1.4亿。12小时空单清算1亿美元，本轮反弹先扫低位空单，拉升后再收割追涨多单，典型双向洗盘。
$BTC ：24小时爆仓6393万，多单3602万、空单2791万。12小时空单爆仓2169万，是上涨阶段主要被清算头寸；1小时短线爆仓274万，多单占244万。价格冲高回落，刚打掉空头止损，又开始绞杀高位追多，分歧加大。
$ETH ：24小时爆仓1.1亿，体量大于BTC。多单4203万、空单6782万。12小时空单爆仓4831万，空头清算力度极强。ETH弹性更强，前期埋伏空单在反弹中集中止损，高位追多同样面临清算风险。
盘面看，空头止损推动反弹，追多盘又成新燃料。短线波动放大，别追涨杀跌，等情绪释放完再动。
盘面分析仅供参考，不构成交易建议。
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 在期货市场里，商品扛住了股市下跌，老手通常不会急着喊牛市，而是先查资金成本和持仓压力。我看这条消息，也更愿意把“跌不动”和“涨得起来”分开看。
QCP的分析称，上周比特币在80,000至83,000美元区间震荡，80,000美元处支撑稳固，与承压的科技股形成对比。尽管通胀数据强劲，避险买盘推动长期美债走强，叠加美联储官员言论使加息预期降温，收益率回落支撑了风险资产。
我的判断是，这对$BTC偏利好，但更像缓解压力，还不是趋势启动的凭据。收益率回落能减轻风险资产的资金成本压力，可债券上涨背后又有避险需求，不能把它全读成资金愿意冒险。
加密市场与传统商品还有个差别：比特币没有同样的库存、现货基差可作交叉验证，单凭区间支撑，我心里总要留一分。我的推测是，如果收益率继续回落，比特币却仍走不出区间，那么这份宏观利好的推动力可能有限。
有没有同样从传统市场转来的朋友？碰到这种避险买债、币价抗跌的组合，你会借用商品市场里的哪项观察来判断强弱，又会舍弃哪项？ARB rose 9.27% today, attempting to break above 0.20 for the third time but failed to hold.
On October 11, it surged to 0.20314 and barely closed above that level.
On October 16, it surged again to 0.20247 but was pushed back the same day.
Today it reached 0.20037, then retreated to 0.19612.
Three attempts at the same level, only one succeeded in holding.
I think the key is not the price, but the volume.
The October 16 surge was on increased volume, with a turnover of 10.62 million, 1.4 times the average volume, yet it still didn’t break through.
Today’s volume was only 5.74 million, about 75% of the average volume.
If it can’t break through the wall even on increased volume, it certainly can’t on decreased volume.
But there is something different today: the entire DeFi sector is rising.
Tokens related to lending, DEX, and yield aggregation are almost all green, with gains ranging from 1% to 4%.
Meanwhile, the public chains are bleeding, with several major L1s down 4% to 6%.
The money hasn’t increased; it’s just rotated from storytelling chains to fee-collecting protocols.
I acknowledge this rotation, but I’m still not convinced about ARB itself.
It has risen 116% in 91 days, standing at 68% of its 100-day range, no longer a bargain.
It’s not climbing up from the bottom; it’s continuing upward from mid-slope.
The 0.20 level at mid-slope is much harder to break than the 0.20 at the valley bottom.
$ARB
#SectorRotation $ETH fell 5.38%, the issue is not how much it fell
$ETH dropped 5.38% in the past 7 days.
During the same period, $BTC only fell 1.46%.
How is this number calculated:
Subtract one from the other, the difference is nearly 4 percentage points.
Falling less is not an achievement; falling less but still underperforming counts.
The next step is:
In the next upward phase, can $ETH outperform the broader market a bit?
If yes, that’s called strengthening; if not, it’s just following the rebound.
$AAVE is reported at 151.9, up 6.58% in 30 days.
Within the same ecosystem, returns are not synchronized.
Leading monthly returns did not bring short-term advantages.
Strength and weakness must be calculated separately, not mixed.
After settling this account, excitement should be toned down first.
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH?
#$ETH $BTC 中国GDP回到4.5%，经济回暖了？先别急着庆祝。
我的看法：生产端在撑场面，内需才是真正的考题。
制造业够猛：高技术制造业前三季度增长14.3%，出口和工厂仍是重要支撑。
消费还没跟上：9月社零只增长1.1%，房地产开发投资前三季度下降20.6%，这才是值得担心的地方。
后面看什么？ 看消费能不能起来、房地产能不能止跌。GDP超预期，不等于经济所有环节都在复苏。
经济增长靠工厂，经济复苏还得看老百姓敢不敢花钱。SanDisk experienced a strong rebound rally today. As a core NAND flash stock, it is undergoing a recovery after the previous continuous sell-off in the storage sector.
This round of increase is mainly a short-term emotional recovery after overselling, combined with the market's re-pricing of enterprise SSD demand driven by AI inference. NAND flash spot prices remain relatively strong, attracting capital back into the storage sector. With sector linkage, storage stocks like Hynix and Micron are also following the rebound.
However, it is important to distinguish: this wave is a rebound rally and not necessarily a trend reversal. The core disruptive factors behind the previous storage sector plunge remain, including the Fed's rate hike expectations, oil price volatility, and the overall risk appetite for major tech stocks, which will continue to constrain the sector.
Key points to note
1. The oversold rebound rally is highly volatile, with rapid gains and sharp pullbacks. Do not mistake the short-term rebound for a new major upward wave to avoid chasing at high levels.
2. The sector linkage is very strong; if the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index weaken again, storage stocks are likely to be dragged down once more.
3. On the fundamentals side, continue to track NAND contract prices, cloud vendors' capital expenditures, and the medium- to long-term supply impact from ChangXin Memory's capacity expansion.
4. Macro variables remain the biggest uncertainty: changes in Fed rate expectations will directly suppress valuations of tech growth stocks.
5. High-leverage contracts carry higher risks; rapid spikes and drops can occur during rebound rallies, so manage positions and stop-losses carefully.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $SOXL October 19th–October 25th Global Macro Guidance: Rate hikes delayed, inflation not retreating! Energy faces policy price suppression, AI earnings follow macro data, has the dollar's global siphon effect begun!? Last week's market focus was whether CPI would lead to a re-evaluation of inflation, and who would control pricing power between energy and the bond market!? A week later, the market has received accurate answers: CPI is hotter than expected, Brent prices once exceeded $110, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to 14%, the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 77%, and the probability of another hike in March approaches 50%. #Chip stocks rebound after eight consecutive declines, can AI trading repair? So starting this week, discussions about Fed policy have shifted to whether there will be a rate hike in December, whether the market has started pricing in a probability exceeding 80% for a December hike, and how much pricing will be completed before the December meeting! This week's macro logic chain: Inflation pressure → switching from October rate hike to December rate hike → Trump uses policy to suppress oil prices → Brent falls below $110 → energy inflation expectations decline + bond yields fall → long-term fiscal risk + term premium risk still exist → tech stocks Q3 earnings valuation adjustment → AI profit growth VS high capital expenditure VS 5% risk-free rate → US stocks and BTC trends. The first main line — will there be a rate hike in December? As of now, CME swap rates show the probability of an October rate hike has dropped to 14%. As the meeting approaches, the possibility of an October hike is basically eliminated, and the market is betting on a December hike and another in March next year.My first reaction when I saw this was: Is the difference between income and expenditure a bit too large? USDD released the Q3 2026 treasury report: quarterly income of $9.7 million, a 26.7% quarter-on-quarter increase, expenditure of $7,601, net profit of about $9.7 million; balance of $31.24 million, surpassing $30 million for the first time. I actually got stuck on the "expenditure" line 🤔
My understanding is that this report is positive news for treasury accumulation, but it can't be directly used to prove that the entire stablecoin system's operating costs are very low. Not sure if I'm right; having been in the space for only a year, I'm quite afraid of conflating two different metrics.
On one hand, income growth and balance increase indicate that the treasury indeed retained more funds this quarter. On the other hand, the expenditures listed by the treasury may not cover all costs required to maintain system operation; the material doesn't clarify this. If some costs are borne by other entities, then this table only shows the treasury's own income and expenses, not the profit and loss statement of the entire system. This is my speculation, not a claim that such a situation already exists.
What I haven't figured out yet is how to interpret this $7,601. I'd like to ask experienced people who have seen similar reports: to verify the scope of its expenses, what kind of disclosures should I look for, or how can I correlate the report items with on-chain expenditures?OI market share at 11.9%, Grayscale bought $7.8 million in 20 days
Analyst sentiment ranks HYPE first across the entire market, deviating 2.3 standard deviations above the bullish consensus, more extreme than BTC and ETH. But what about the price? It dropped from 97.96 to 79, a 22% pullback. When price and sentiment diverge, that's when traders get involved.
$HYPE bets on the "fee buyback flywheel"
The first AQAv2 profit of 14.58 million USDC has already arrived, with continuous buybacks of HYPE into the Assistance Fund; HyperLink routing volume hit 254 million last month, targeting 10% of Hyperliquid's trading volume. Grayscale net bought $7.8 million in 20 days, institutions didn’t stop buying during the dip. Perpetual OI market share hit a record 11.9%, the ecosystem is growing. HYPE’s bullish logic isn’t narrative, it’s revenue converted into buying pressure.
$BNB bets on "deflationary bottom + ecosystem options"
The 37th burn just happened, 1.646 million BNB directly sent to the black hole, about $1.2 billion. AI trading tools launched; the more active the trading, the greater the fee discounts and gas consumption, the more intense the burn. Plus, the expectation of Predict’s TGE within a month makes BNB pool new listings a clear play. BNB may not rise the fastest, but it’s the toughest during downturns.
One offense, one defense. Honestly: between HYPE’s buybacks and BNB’s new listings, which one would you bet on?
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see inflows first, BTC or ETH? 🔍 Can a burn worth about $1.197 billion be directly counted as a buy order of the same scale? Seeing this news, I actually want to separate "burn" and "buy" first, and not rush to conclusions.
According to this information, the BNB Foundation announced the completion of the 37th quarterly burn of BNB Chain, burning a total of 1,646,196.44 $BNB, with an estimated value of about $1.197 billion at the time of the burn, leaving a total remaining supply of 131,512,085 tokens. What can be confirmed here is that the announcement disclosed the burn amount and supply, but the source of these tokens was not explained.
An interesting detail here: the USD valuation is the value standard of the burned tokens, not equivalent to new funds entering the market; the supply reduction strengthens the scarcity narrative, but whether demand will keep up cannot be answered by this news alone.
My judgment is that this is somewhat positive for the supply side, but treating it as a decisive clue for short-term market trends, I think, is an overestimation. This is my speculation: if subsequent on-chain usage demand continues to increase, then the supply contraction is more likely to form synergy; otherwise, the eye-catching USD figure may be more striking than the actual impact.
I will continue to monitor the source of the burns and on-chain activity. Do you value this supply reduction more, or the subsequent real usage demand? Let's keep an eye on the follow-up and see whose speculation is closer.$METIS vs $RSR : Is Selling Pressure Creating an Opportunity?
Both tokens are falling, but the real story is how traders are positioned.
$METIS shows persistent bearish pressure, with profitable shorts and struggling longs. Recent selling still outweighs buying, suggesting buyers haven't regained control.
$RSR looks even more vulnerable. Short positioning is stronger, and fresh selling reinforces the bearish sentiment. "The bonus from password sharing is over, will Netflix rely on ads to survive? Three numbers to watch on October 20"
Netflix will announce earnings after the market closes on October 20. Key points first: the company guides Q3 revenue at $12.86 billion (+12%), operating margin at 33.2% (28.2% same period last year)—the margin story is more attractive than revenue.
There are three real tests: ① Can ad revenue reach $800 million (Q2's $618 million missed expectations and serves as a warning); ② Will revenue growth fall into single digits (17.6% → 13.4% → guidance 11.7%, stepping down continuously); ③ Can price increases plus ads offset subscription slowdown. The bonus from password sharing is over, and the growth engine is shifting gears.
The stock price has dropped 24% in the past three months, forward P/E is 19.9x, about 60% of the 5-year average—expectations are already low, but don’t rush to bottom-fish; the 7% drop after Q2 earnings was due to soft guidance.
Mapping to crypto: US stocks have earnings reports to falsify expectations, crypto only has macro. BTC 80800 is holding the 80000 level; tonight’s triple PPI release is the first to watch. If macro doesn’t ease, all narratives are just distant hopes.
#Netflix growth may slow, ad business becomes a new focus On October 19, the crypto market showed a clear gap: prices were under pressure, but structural progress was accelerating.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $910 million over two weeks, with a cumulative net outflow of $615 million in October. BTC briefly fell below $80,000, slightly dipping below the average cost line of ETF holders (around $82,300). The trigger was the September CPI rebound to about 3.7%, with a 5% risk-free rate siphoning off risk appetite. However, ETF net inflows remain positive year-to-date at about $355 million, indicating that the institutional base has not collapsed.
What is truly advancing is the "machine spending" concept. On October 9, HSBC and Ant Group completed AI agent micro-payment technology verification in Hong Kong: AI agents autonomously discovered digital services and initiated tokenized deposit payments; HSBC verified and settled in real time, with transactions completed on a blockchain testnet in real time. The x402 protocol has accumulated about 109.6 million transactions, each with a very small amount, but frequency is rising. This is still a technology verification, not a commercial launch, but the fact that banks have already integrated the payment process itself is a signal.
On the regulatory side, the CLARITY Act remains stalled after procedural obstacles in the Senate in September. SEC Chair Atkins stated that the framework will continue to be advanced under existing authority. Currently, a series of institutional rules and exemptions provide a bottom line; these are more fragile than legislation but sufficient for banks and asset managers to continue testing.
In the short term, the question is whether ETF outflows can converge near the cost line; in the medium term, whether AI agent payments can move from testnets into production environments. $BTC $ETH To pour some cold water first, I don't see this burn as a new bullish turning point. Whether the quarterly action can bring an earnings surprise is the key. The BNB Foundation announced the completion of the 37th quarterly burn of BNB Chain, burning a total of 1,646,196.44 BNB, with an estimated value of about $1.197 billion at the time of the burn, leaving a total remaining supply of 131,512,085 BNB. The numbers are large, but my judgment on $BNB is currently cautious.
I'm stuck on two points: First, this is already the 37th quarterly burn, so the market has reason to anticipate supply contraction in advance; if everyone has already expected it, the news landing may not bring much new stimulus. Second, a decrease in total supply does not equal a proportional reduction in short-term tradable chips. The information does not clarify whether the burned tokens were previously circulating in the market, so I won't directly interpret it as an equal scale of selling pressure disappearing. For ordinary users following the news, this distinction is more important than the dollar amount.
Of course, the bulls might be right. I'm not denying scarcity, but I am unwilling to pay a premium for unverified demand. If subsequent on-chain usage demand continues to strengthen and we can see tradable supply tightening simultaneously, I will adjust my judgment. Are you bullish or bearish on this burn? Share your reasons: do you value supply reduction more, or worry that the positive news has already been priced in?#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Although the expected operating profit margin can rise from 28.2% to 33.2%, this margin improvement is based on cutting labor costs rather than a surge in core business. Subscription growth slowdown is a fact, and the advertising business is still in its cultivation period, so distant help cannot solve immediate problems. We should not be too optimistic about the better-than-expected financial report; the quality of profits squeezed out by layoffs is questionable. The stock price had already slightly declined before the earnings report, so it is better to wait and watch, being cautious of valuation cuts after expectations are realized. It's better to wait a bit longer and be more cautious.Look at the drop in these few US stocks like $MSTR; if anyone still says US stocks are more stable than crypto, I’m ready to argue. In the crypto world, it’s all the same roller coaster ride:
Take $CRCL for example, clearly the purest stablecoin narrative, yet it dropped 5.46% in one day last week. Fortunately, it slowly recovered over the weekend.
Circle’s quarterly revenue has now reached 700 million, up 6.6% year-over-year. Its market cap is 20.9 billion, which is not cheap anymore. But it’s definitely a good sector, with giants like Visa and Mastercard racing to get involved.
MSTR is even worse off; it’s basically a leveraged Bitcoin substitute, and then it got hit by the MSCI delisting rumors, dropping 10% in one day. It had been rising nicely the past two months, but now its mNAV is squeezed back to 1.07x, almost wiping out the premium.
$COIN is supposed to be the one to watch for trading volume, but it doesn’t get as much attention as CRCL. It’s clearly a fee-earning business and should be treated like other exchange platform tokens, but due to low attention, it also dropped 7% in one day and is even more fragile than MSTR when the market is quiet. #MSCI新规或将Strategy等BTC财库公司移出指数 "The strong get stronger, the weak get weaker"
Friday's judgment basically came true: $BTC stayed steady above $80,000 and even touched around $82,000; ETH, however, still struggled repeatedly just before the $2,500 mark.
The strength comparison is very clear. The $ETH/BTC ratio dropped to a low near 0.0347, and the price remains below the 200-day moving average range of $2,483–$2,495, technically continuing to show weakness. Capital is also voting with its feet: last week, the spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $320 million, while the BTC ETF had a net outflow of $228 million. The selling pressure on Ethereum is clearly heavier.
Both are undergoing adjustments, but BTC holds firm while ETH fails to break through. Right now, it’s not about who rebounds faster, but who loses less blood. BTC is temporarily playing the role of stabilizer, while ETH still needs to wait for ETF funds to stop the bleeding. Before the market gives a clear answer, position sizing is more important than opinions. #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 [Research Report Quick Review] A rebound does not equal a reversal. A slight price uptick has triggered collective calls for "bottom confirmation," but from the perspective of capital behavior, this round looks more like a pulse rally driven by short-term funds. Large accounts are actually reducing exposure by taking advantage of liquidity windows, while retail investors chasing highs face increased risk.
Regarding BTC, spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows recently, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars; hotter-than-expected US inflation data has caused interest rate hike expectations to retreat, with prices oscillating around the $80,000 range. Institutions are generally reducing positions, with no sustained capital support observed.
For ETH, ETFs have experienced large net outflows for more than ten consecutive days, with weekly net outflows in the hundreds of millions; although prices briefly rose above $2400, the capital side is still bleeding, and recovery signals lack underlying support.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC I think the price dropped back from about 83,000 to just over 82,000 in the afternoon, don't assume the rebound has stabilized. Spot price is about $82,323 (Beijing 18:39, Coinbase).To be honest: among these three short positions, the one I watch most closely is $ZEC. It's not that I'm afraid it won't drop, but that it might suddenly start spinning a story.😅
$BTC: Tugging near the 50-day moving average, Aroon Down is high, and the short-term downtrend structure remains intact. But the main pressure comes from long-term interest rates—30-year at 5.67%, 10-year above 5%—investors have no patience for non-yielding assets. The old narrative of whales dumping has faded, and on-chain selling pressure is receding. Watch the 10-year yield; if it eases, then exit.📉
$ETH: ETF continuous outflows are obvious; last week net outflow was 542 million, with BlackRock alone at 477 million. But after ten days of bad news spreading, marginal damage is weakening. ETH has shallow liquidity and dense leverage; once outflows narrow, the rebound will be stronger than BTC. It's a sprint, not a marathon.💸
$ZEC: From late September's 1650–1700 drop to around 1165, technically bearish, but the NU7 decision window on October 20 is a binary event. The testnet block time is cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, with the mainnet target on November 5. Shorting ZEC is betting that sentiment won't buy the catalyst ahead of time. It's an offensive move, not ballast; low leverage and isolated margin are hard constraints.⚡
Are you planning to hold your ZEC short until October 20 to bet on “selling the fact,” or take some profits first?🤔 #机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 In the futures market, when assessing whether an institution is financially strong, I usually first check income and cash reserves, rather than just listening to stories about scale. But when it comes to the crypto market, this old standard needs to be applied differently. The profitability of a stablecoin treasury and whether holders can smoothly redeem are not the same thing.
USDD's Q3 2026 treasury report shows revenue of $9.7 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.7%, expenses of $7,601, and a net profit of about $9.7 million; the treasury balance reached $31.24 million, surpassing $30 million for the first time, setting a new record.
My judgment is that this is somewhat positive for $USDD's operational accumulation, but it cannot yet be taken as proof that stability has been assured. Revenue growth and treasury increase indicate that the balance sheet buffer is expanding; however, this summary does not explain the source and sustainability of the income, and expenses are very low. I would want to verify the cost accounting standards and not simply extrapolate net profit forward.
In traditional finance, a good profit and loss statement cannot replace liquidity checks; applied to stablecoins, I am more concerned about reserve quality, liability scale, and redemption arrangements. If treasury assets can be promptly utilized under stress, then this accumulation carries more weight—this is my speculation.
Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? Looking at this report, would you first check the income sources or the reserves and redemption mechanisms?突然想起今天 $UNI 和 $BCH 的期货正式在 CME 开张，
成为第 10、第 11 个单币期货，
但是市场没有丝毫反应。
果然老辣鸡就是老辣鸡，
回看消息出来就基本上最高点，
随后就是一路阴跌。
话说回来，这玩意是现金交割，机构不用碰一个币。
CME 自己说是给客户「管理价格风险」用的，最先用上的是谁？
BCH 矿工、拿着 UNI 投票的基金和项目方国库，想锁价又不想卖币，最顺手的就是开空单。
所以期货上线带来的，更多是对冲盘，不是买盘。
但还是要说：
珍爱生命，
远离老辣鸡。$BTC $FIL $TIA
Today the market took a direct plunge, overall risk sentiment is very poor, BTC can't hold and is being pushed down, altcoins are falling even harder, with coins like $TIA and FIL that had earlier rotation-driven rallies experiencing even larger pullbacks.
Simply put, the reasons are:
1. Risk capital is withdrawing; the US stock market is weak, and in correlation, crypto funds are unwilling to stay in high-risk coins, with insufficient buying power, so even a slight sell-off leads to rapid declines.
2. Breaking key support triggered a chain liquidation; after prices broke critical support levels, a large number of long positions were liquidated, and the more it falls, the greater the selling pressure, causing a stampede.
3. This round is essentially a battle for existing funds, with no continuous inflow of new capital; previous small coin rallies were all short-term funds pumping and then exiting, so when the market drops, they collectively cash out immediately.
In terms of strategy, don't rush to bottom-fish now; this is a panic-selling phase, so don't casually catch falling knives. Be patient with spot positions and wait for stabilization signals; try to keep futures positions empty, as altcoins will be much more volatile than BTC.
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC institutional funds weaken, who will see a return flow first, BTC or ETH?
This round of institutional fund withdrawal is essentially a contraction of risk assets under repeated macro expectations. According to the historical pattern of ETF funds, **BTC is highly likely to be the first to see institutional return flow**, while ETH's fund recovery is often delayed and requires a higher market risk appetite.
BTC is positioned as a major asset allocation in the crypto field. Institutional funds enter to diversify assets, hedge inflation, and geopolitical risks. As long as the Federal Reserve's policy expectations marginally ease, large asset managers will prioritize allocating BTC spot ETFs, making fund reversal signals easier to appear. ETH, with stronger growth attributes combined with uncertainties in staking, ecosystem, and regulatory aspects, requires institutions to see a warming crypto ecosystem and improved on-chain activity before allocating ETH. This belongs to the second phase of market funds, with a higher risk appetite threshold.
However, there is a variable here: if the market later experiences a strong style rotation and small-cap coins collectively start, ETH may see retail funds leading a catch-up rally, while institutional funds remain cautious, resulting in a price rebound diverging from ETF funds. To judge the authenticity of fund return flow, one should not only look at single-day inflows but focus on two indicators: ETF funds turning positive for three consecutive trading days and whale addresses no longer continuously reducing holdings.#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ $BTC's recent move today saw long positions closed near the peak, as can be seen from the actual delivery orders. It's not bearish; the reason for the rise is just not right.
It surged a lot from the morning low, looking strong. But in the liquidation data, 97% of the positions liquidated in the last hour were shorts — the price was pushed up by short stop-losses, not by real money buying. Both futures and options volumes have doubled, yet the price hasn't moved much.
The structure hasn't broken through either; today's highest point is still some way off the 20-day moving average, it hasn't even touched it. The 83,000 level has been pushed back several times before. On Binance and OKX, the long-short ratio of accounts is above 1.5, retail investors are chasing longs, but the overall market is almost balanced — the ones chasing are mostly small accounts. ETFs are still seeing outflows, institutions haven't returned.
So the longs were closed. Shorts covered, but no one is stepping in below. If you really want to be bullish, wait until it breaks above the 20-day moving average with volume. $KORU $KORU added two positive factors over the weekend. Personally, I still lean bearish, but I don't think it will keep dropping straight down.
The semiconductor sector has been falling these days. The issue is no longer just about chip sales performance, but the market starting to worry whether the huge AI investments can actually pay off. Coupled with expensive financing, high oil prices, and Chinese memory manufacturers catching up faster, funds have been continuously withdrawing.
However, two positive news came out on Sunday: one is that South Korea said the semiconductor boom might remain strong until 2027; the other is news about the next-generation HBM from Samsung, TSMC, and Nvidia. These two pieces of news will only start trading in Korea on Monday, so I think there might be a rally first on Monday.
Monday might see a rebound to 10.9–11.6 → if SK Hynix and foreign capital still don't follow, it will drop back to 9.6–10.2 → then rebound once more → by Wednesday lean towards 8.8–9.6.
Right now, I don't expect KORU to crash immediately; I tend to expect a rebound first, then continued weakness. The most important thing on Monday is to see whether Samsung and SK Hynix rise together and whether foreign capital really buys back. If only Samsung rises due to the positive news but SK Hynix remains weak, I will treat the rebound as just a temporary correction before further decline.
On Wednesday, we also need to watch South Korea's chip exports and Nvidia's GTC. If these two provide very strong positive news and the market is truly willing to buy this time, then my bearish view might be wrong, and KORU could have a chance to recover directly to around 12.3 or even 13.