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The water is calm and the river flows, but there is a line trembling beneath the surface
For the past one and a half hours, neither BTC nor ETH has exploded. BTC seems to be pressed repeatedly between 80,300 and 80,400, with almost zero net movement in an hour and a half; the calmness is so dull it makes people sleepy. ETH moved slightly, sliding from around 2,340 down to 2,336, a drop of just a few tenths of a percent, not even reaching the threshold of a "plunge."$ETH
Small moves, but the atmosphere is intense. Derivatives trading volume shrank by 11.66% in 24 hours, and short-term bettors are clearly retreating. What really keeps people on edge is the line beneath the surface: a certain whale’s ETH long position liquidation price is only about one hundred dollars away from today’s low, and they just added $9.21 million in margin to stay alive at midnight. The price hasn’t collapsed, but it hasn’t left the danger zone either, like a person standing on the edge of a cliff scrolling on their phone—feet haven’t slipped, but the heartbeat hasn’t stopped.$BTC
If the price chooses to "not move" to survive the liquidation line, is that a successful defense, or just postponing the explosion by a few hours? No one knows the answer. The key is on October 27–28; the market is waiting for a bigger variable to unfold. Big money chooses to lie low, short-term funds choose to watch, and naturally the market is sucked into a vacuum.
In short: it’s not that no one wants an explosion, but the fuse has been pulled out by margin calls, the explosives dampened by macro factors, and even the igniters are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s starting gun. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ This week's ETF fund flows look quite divided 👀
BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $301.2 million over the week, but the rhythm was quite twisted: over $1 billion came in during the first three days, then $773.5 million flowed out consecutively on Thursday and Friday. The whole week's support basically relied on IBIT alone, which saw an inflow of $565.7 million over five days, while FBTC and ARKB actually experienced outflows.
ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $220.7 million for the week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow exceeding $1.1 billion in October.
My understanding: institutions haven't fled but are being selective, concentrating funds into top BTC products while ETH is being neglected. The prices reflect this as well, with BTC hovering around 80,000 and ETH dropping to about 2,350.
The biggest variable next week is the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28, with oil prices still above $117. If the meeting leans hawkish, outflows like those on Thursday and Friday may repeat; if the tone is more dovish, BTC is more likely to rebound first, and ETH will need capital inflows to outperform.
Personally, I am lightly positioned before the meeting and not betting on direction. Do you think ETH will continue to be drained?
Sources: Farside Investors, NewsBTC, Investing.com
Personal views only, not investment advice, DYOR
$BTC $ETH
#ETF fund flows #Federal Reserve meeting #BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC is currently reported at about 80,650, after dipping to 79,146 over the weekend and then recovering above 80,000. ETF had a net inflow of 5.05 million yesterday, with IBIT alone taking 16.78 million, but on a weekly basis, IBIT took 566 million while others withdrew 265 million, indicating a fragile structure. The probability of FOMC maintaining interest rates is 90.6%, with no position taken before the meeting, waiting for a clear signal with volume.$SNDK 10/29 This earnings report, I tend to think it will exceed expectations, and I am optimistic it can rally after the release.
The company's adjusted EPS guidance is $44–46, with the market expecting $45.22, basically right in the middle. Last quarter's EPS was $39.25, and this guidance has already moved up quite a bit. The logic of NAND price increases and locked-in long-term contracts still holds, so I think the performance has a chance to be even better.
However, the stock price has been falling, dropping from $1,887 back to $1,238, a pullback of over 30%. Compared to the last earnings report, profit expectations are higher, but the stock price has been moving downward recently, which is also why I am leaning bullish this time.
Of course, a big drop doesn't necessarily mean it will rise. But my judgment is that if this earnings report beats expectations and next quarter's guidance doesn't disappoint, the previously suppressed sentiment might ease, leading to a rebound.
I will focus on next quarter's revenue guidance: if it can reach above $12 billion and maintain gross margin, that would be more reassuring; if it falls below $11 billion or gross margin drops significantly, then this judgment would need to be revised.
So my prediction this time is: earnings will be favorable, expect a rebound after the release, first seeing if it can recover $1,300. As for whether it can continue up to $1,450–1,550, that depends on the guidance and capital reaction.ETH smart money trader position core data analysis, both longs and shorts under pressure, who is really making money!!!
ETH current price 2346.37, down 1.13%, current funding rate 0.0079%.
Smart money total positions 1.62B USDT, total traders 2175, nominal long-short ratio 23.96%.
Longs (793 traders)
Current position 313.47M USDT, average entry price 2863.83, unrealized floating loss 69.132M USDT, profit ratio only 25.97%, vast majority of longs are trapped, entry cost far above current price, huge pressure.
Shorts (1382 traders)
Current position 1.30B USDT, average entry price 2311.51, unrealized floating loss 19.4258M USDT, profit ratio 65.26%. Number of short traders and position size significantly larger, although most traders are still profitable, overall accounts also show floating losses.
Current price is squeezed between long and short costs, longs deeply trapped, shorts slightly floating loss, also a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Long profit ratio less than 30%, clearly the weaker side.
For market observation reference only, does not constitute any investment advice #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 $BTC $ETH $IRYS Robinhood Chain is starting to look like more than a place to trade tokenized stocks.
DEX volume fell 30% to $6.35B, yet DeFi TVL climbed to $1.058B.
And the bigger signal? Morpho had $486.8M in open loans.
Trading cooled off, but lending kept growing.
That week alone, borrowers paid ~$417K in interest + liquidation bonuses, while Morpho itself recorded $0 in protocol revenue.
The market may be shifting from speculation to financial infrastructure.
$HOOD $xHOOD
#HOODQ3TradingGrowth People buying gold to hedge against inflation might feel especially frustrated these days: energy prices are rising, yet gold prices once fell below $4000.
On Friday, spot gold touched around $3975 intraday. This trend reminds me that gold's reaction to inflation is far from the straightforward "prices go up, gold goes up" logic.
If rising energy prices make the market worry that interest rates will stay high longer, non-interest-bearing gold faces opportunity cost pressure. Coupled with the dollar, real interest rates, and position adjustments, short-term performance can completely differ from the most intuitive safe-haven logic.
I do not completely dismiss gold's long-term allocation role because of this drop, but I will reassess the expectations when buying. Using it to diversify long-term risk and expecting it to rise immediately every time the situation tightens are two different needs.
The $4000 round number is very eye-catching, but after breaking below it, we still need to see whether funds continue to sell and how interest rate expectations change. Relying on a single round number makes it hard to judge whether the adjustment has ended or just begun.
What’s most uncomfortable is that the risks we worry about are still there, yet the asset bought for hedging makes the account suffer first.
At times like this, I prefer to clarify the holding period. Long-term allocation requires the ability to withstand short-term drawdowns, while short-term trading needs separate exit conditions and cannot change plans to long-term only after a drop.
#现货黄金跌破4000美元关口 Four major events line up next week: the Federal Reserve decision, the ECB, US GDP and PCE, and Friday's options expiration. Who will trigger first is unknown, but before the explosion, there will definitely be a shakeout in the market.
$BTC is "grinding and waiting": hovering around 80800, price unchanged, positions holding against the trend, with 175 million liquidated; price not falling and positions not reducing means it's not stability, someone is still filling. No volume surge means no chase, just riding sideways to profit from volatility and losing on fees.
$ETH is "following the weakness": grinding at 2360, falling deeper, positions flowing out, 157 million liquidated; ETFs are withdrawing nearly 1 billion in October, staking at 2.6% can't compete with 5% treasury yields, so funds have no reason to return actively. Positions keep flowing out with no uptake.
$SOL is "forgotten": fluctuating at 102, positions shrinking, long liquidations, but accounts still hold over 76% longs, many talk long but sell with hands, this divergence is even more frustrating; no volume surge to show presence means no added drama.
All fees are positive: BTC 0.0071%, ETH 0.0053%, SOL 0.0062%, longs pay to hold positions; total daily liquidations across the network hit 542 million, up 14.52%, a typical sideways market deleveraging—price isn't killed, positions are.
Conclusion: No directional bets before the decision, just watch three lines—whether BTC positions keep rising, ETH positions keep shrinking, and whether SOL continues to be forgotten. Whichever changes first will move, if none change, just watch. Staying still is harder than moving; survival depends on steady hands.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $IRYS 的上涨动能正在衰竭，而市场还在用上一轮的剧本等它“再冲一次”。原文给出的判断很直接：这枚币已走完拉升段，接下来更可能是缓慢阴跌、偶发弱反弹，直到无人问津时才出现一波不大不小的修复行情——老剧本，重复上演。真正值得警惕的不是跌，而是“跌到没人讨论”这个信号本身：它往往才是下一轮反弹的起点，而非终点。😮💨 再看 $ORDER，原文的态度异常鲜明：别碰。控盘极紧，随时可能暴拉也可能瞬间崩塌，方向不由基本面决定。若非要参与，只能分批小仓，并做好归零准备。这不是看空，而是承认这类标的的价格发现机制已经失效——在这种结构里，任何“技术位”都是幻觉。 $BTC 才是这轮叙事的锚。原文给出两个关键价位：80,000 与 76,000。逻辑是：若先破 80,000，会诱出一批追空盘，随后反而可能触发强势上攻；而只要 76,000 不破，多头希望就仍在，长期看涨立场不变。这里藏着一个容易被低估的预期差——市场把 80,000 当成阻力，原文却把它当成“洗空头的诱饵位”。换句话说，破位不等于转熊，而可能是反向燃料。确认信号很清晰：80,000 失守后若出现放量下杀却快速收回，就是空头陷阱成$APR This project itself has Jump and Coinbase backgrounds, and it did do real cash buybacks in the early stage, so the story is somewhat complete. But the fatal flaw lies in the token structure, with a circulation rate of just over 20%, and a cliff-like large unlocking is about to happen, nearly half the current circulating supply. Watch the 15-minute chart closely; after a pump, the MACD immediately forms a death cross and crashes down. This is clearly making room for low-cost chips to sell. Jumping in now is just being an ATM for others.
$RLS RLS is involved in blockchain game distribution, with only about 15% circulation, the market cap is extremely light, and any random order can distort the candlestick chart beyond recognition. The buyback and burn narrative sounds impressive, but there's no verification of where the funds come from. Its 24-hour turnover rate is extremely high, all short-term hot money quickly in and out. On the 15-minute chart, it spikes with a long upper shadow, showing obvious lack of momentum, a typical pump-and-dump; once the hype fades, the true nature is exposed.
$USELESS USELESS is on my blacklist, not even worth analyzing. Pure stagnant water variant and Meme collector, relying on the name to disgust people, pumping once to scam once. This kind of trash coin has no game theory logic at all, just block it and don't look at it; touching it is just giving away money.
In summary, with the current high-interest environment tightly suppressed, there is basically no incremental fresh capital entering the market. Altcoins are just robbing each other, chaotic and reckless. Control your hands, hold firmly the big coins like BTC and ETH with solid fundamentals for the long term, and don't touch these meat grinders. Two hundred billion dollars of capital expenditure is placed on the board at once, but what it gains is only a pawn that has yet to promote—a path pawn. This is not an offense; it is an exchange that stakes the entire rear wing.
Google's parent company chose to reveal the midgame only after the U.S. stock market closed on October 28th, a cunning move under time pressure: first letting all opponents calculate on their own for a day, then putting the answer on the table at the market open the next day. What truly makes grandmasters frown is not whether the cloud business can keep running fast, but that it pushes the 2026 budget directly to the range of 195 billion to 205 billion—this means the pawns in the deployment phase have already reached the sixth rank, the spatial advantage is real, and the permanent weaknesses are real too.
To understand this game, you must distinguish which piece is the path pawn and which is the iron horse. Search advertising is the iron horse occupying the strong central squares; moving it even one step loosens the entire defense line. Cloud computing is the most aggressively advancing path pawn; the further it goes, the more support it needs from other pieces, and the cost of support is capital expenditure. Computing infrastructure is the pawn structure itself—every pawn you push out today will come back to settle accounts with you in the form of depreciation three years later. Most people in the market only calculate one step: whether revenue exceeds expectations. But those truly sitting at the board calculate the twentieth step: when the depreciation curve will surpass the gross margin curve, and in which quarter free cash flow will start to show overlapping and isolated pawns. Once the pawn structure deteriorates, it takes more than three moves to repair, and the opponent will not give you three moves.
As for the mapping token $xMETA anchored to the U.S. stock market, it has never been an independent game. It is a response move on the adjacent board: as long as this opening system of ultra-large-scale computing power continues to push pawns forward, all suspended pieces hanging on the same system will vibrate synchronously—cloud growth is the fuse, capital expenditure is the gunpowder, and gross margin is the restraint no one wants to touch first. You think you are trading a token, but you are actually bearing the joint responsibility of the entire industry's pawn structure.
Sacrificing pieces is the easiest move to misread in this game. Giving up current free cash flow to exchange for future air superiority in computing power is theoretically valid—provided the opponent cooperates, meaning demand cannot slow down before the endgame. But once the revenue growth support line breaks, what is sacrificed is not a piece, but the pawn wall of the king's wing.
The report after the close on October 28th essentially answers a pure chess theory question: do you want a beautiful midgame or a winning endgame? Usually, you cannot have both.
True masters are not focused on the single number of cloud business growth at this moment, but on the ever-tightening restraint between depreciation and cash flow—pushing pawns across the river does not count as a win; only holding the promotion square counts. #alphabetq3cloudandaiWhen a building announces that its number of tenants has hit a record, the first question a structural engineer asks is never how much the rent has increased, but rather—whether the live load has exceeded the design value. Robinhood delivered a 32% year-over-year revenue growth and 22 billion in net deposits; this report card looks impressive on the surface, but a beautiful facade never proves that the internal framework is stable. Deposits are the foundation reserves, while trading volume is the live load pressing down daily, and live load is cyclical—like wind load, you have to verify it under the most unfavorable conditions.
What truly makes me cautious is its load-bearing system. A platform that lives off trading commissions is essentially a large-span space supported by temporary booths—crowded with people during busy times, but when it calms down, you realize there are hardly any columns in the middle. The key in Q3 is not how steep the revenue curve is, but whether there is a continuous transfer layer beneath that curve capable of transmitting vertical loads. Whether trading activity can sustain translates into engineering terms as: can the building’s natural frequency avoid resonance with market sentiment?
What is the new business? Is it an added curtain wall, or a new core tube? These are two completely different construction plans. The former only improves the appearance; the latter determines how tall the building can be. If the new business just moves revenue from Building A to Building B, that’s interior decoration, not expansion. What’s really worth monitoring is whether the foundation depth has increased along with the building height, and whether the user asset retention structure has shifted from short-term leases to long-term load-bearing walls.
Now look at that record 22 billion in net deposits. The shinier the number, the more I want to check the thickness and reinforcement of the foundation slab—are these funds settled static loads, or temporary piled loads that get withdrawn at the slightest disturbance? The capital attributes of a financial platform are like the soil quality of a building’s foundation; once the moisture content rises, the bearing capacity immediately discounts. Q2 revenue growth was 32%; if Q3 is sustained by increasing trading frequency, that’s equivalent to adding dynamic loads to the structure without fatigue verification.
I don’t care how the candlestick charts jump after the market opens; I care whether, after stripping away the financial report’s decorative layer, its load transfer path is clear, continuous, and free of stress concentrations. A financial report is like a main structure inspection—what’s exposed is always decoration, what’s hidden is the construction. When a building starts relying on continuously adding external advertising spaces to maintain popularity, its structural design lifespan was actually predetermined at the blueprint stage. #hoodq3tradinggrowth#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix will release its Q3 earnings report before 9 AM on October 28 (Wednesday) Seoul time, before 8 AM Beijing time.
Market expectations are high: FnGuide's consensus operating profit forecast is about 76.96 trillion KRW, which if realized, would mark a record sixth consecutive quarter. The biggest highlight is HBM4, which is the first quarter to fully include revenue from Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform HBM4. According to Counterpoint data, in Q2 it held about 50% of the global HBM market share, ranking first.
Three things I want to watch:
1. The shipment progress of HBM4, especially whether the capacity ramp-up of the 12-layer stacking goes smoothly;
2. Whether the Q4 guidance is further raised;
3. Whether buybacks and dividends are increased.
But the fuller the expectations, the easier it is for "good news to be fully priced in." No matter how good the earnings are, if the guidance falls short even slightly, the stock price may still drop first.
Scam warning: Whenever there is a hot topic, "Hynix concept coins" and "AI chip coins" will appear, which have nothing to do with the company. If you see them, just swipe them away.
Do you think this time it will exceed expectations or is the good news already priced in?
Not investment advice, DYORCore DAO's business on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The truth about $CORE The token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. The listed product is the BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) from third-party issuer Valour (a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies), with underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify it as "Core debuting on the London Stock Exchange," which is promotional tactics and not CORE token trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: ETP (exchange-traded product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset, and Bitcoin entering the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business Logic - Valour holds real BTC, with institutions cold storage and custody; - Entrust BTC to Core network validators for staking to generate staking rewards (nominal annualized rate of about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value; investors buying this LME stock indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Opened to professional investors in September 2025; Obtained FCA license in January 2026, opening trading to ordinary UK retail investors. 3. Core plays a role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-P+0.007% 的资金费率，在 BTC 刚跌破 81,257 美元前低的夜里，安静得有点刺眼。 你猜这是买方最后的倔强，还是空头还没收网的信号？ 昨晚盯着 ETH 那根 23 号的阴线看了很久。它直接打穿了 22 号 2,358 美元的底，最低摸到 2,350，现在 2,383 附近趴着，像台阶一样，每一级都比昨天矮一截。表面看是跌不动了，但我总觉得这种"稳"更像下坡路上的一次喘气，不是终点。 真正让我警觉的不是价格，是衍生品那头的表情。BTC 资金费率还挂着 +0.007%，ETH 是 +0.006%，价格在破位，多头却还在乖乖付保费。这说明追多的人没走干净，杠杆也没清完。这种结构最脆弱的地方在于：一旦反弹，空头有利润加仓，多头有残仓等解套，上方每一格都容易变成卖压。反过来，如果费率突然转负、持仓快速缩水，那才是挤压空头的燃料，可惜现在还没看到这个苗头。 跨市场看，BTC 从 21 号 84,876 的高点连跌两场，23 号最低 80,457，已经丢了 21 号的 81,257 支撑。它不再是那个"跌得慢一点"的避风港，而是跟着风险偏好一起往下挪。ETH 更弱，山寨会更敏感——这种时Core DAO's so-called trump card (core technology + benchmark product) 1. Underlying trump card: Satoshi Plus consensus (biggest narrative selling point) 1. Hybrid consensus: Bitcoin hashrate + BTC staking + CORE staking jointly protect the network, promoted as a "Bitcoin security-enhanced EVM public chain." 2. Supports self-custody BTC staking: Bitcoin requires no cross-chain or packaging; users can stake and earn rewards using Bitcoin's native time lock, with asset users keeping their own private keys, which is its biggest difference from other BTC layer 2 platforms. 3. Dual Staking: Staking BTC + CORE simultaneously unlocks higher yields and creates demand for CORE tokens. 4. EVM compatibility; Ethereum tools and contracts can be directly migrated, with fast transfer speeds and low fees. Risks: Consensus logic is complex, with past validator reward vulnerabilities requiring hard fork fixes, and mechanism complexity poses security risks. 2. BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi, main ecosystem track) 1. Self-custody BTC staking system: The project's first flagship product, turning dormant Bitcoin into yield-generating assets, without needing to hand over BTC to custodians. Generates BTC liquid staking certificates, which can continue to be used in ecosystem lending and DEXs. 2. Colend (flagship lending): A leading native lending protocol in the ecosystem, allowing staking BTC/LST for collateral lending; Current status: The contract still exists, but TVL is shrinkingCore 官方（Core DAO）主动撤出自己的验证节点，分两种完全不同的解读，要看是主动下线退出验证集合，还是只是临时停机。 一、最理想的解读：去中心化（利好叙事） Core 网络总共只有 31 个活跃验证节点。 - 基金会把自己运营的官方验证节点主动退出，不再霸占验证席位，把出块资格交给社区第三方验证者。 - 代表项目方不再把持网络控制权，弱化基金会对链的掌控，符合公链去中心化的目标。 - 属于很多公链后期的常规操作，本身不代表链要跑路。 但这里有个关键点： 虽然官方节点退出，但如果大量质押委托仍然集中在少数头部验证人手里，网络依旧高度中心化，只是控制权从项目方转移给了少数大户。 二、需要警惕的负面信号（市场最关心） 如果是在没有提前公告的情况下，核心官方验证节点突然退出，一般会被市场解读为下面这些问题。 1. 项目方运维收缩、预算缩减 运行验证节点需要持续服务器、运维人力成本。 - 币价持续低迷、生态收入不及预期，团队缩减开支，不再承担验证节点成本。 - 说明项目方已经不愿意持续投入维护这条链，属于基本面转弱信号。 2. 团队信心不足 I'm holding Yes. Strategy already disclosed a ~$20.9B unrealized BTC gain for Q3 (8-K, Oct 5), so most of the headline profit is already known. Consensus EPS is ~$21.5, but it's based on only 3 analysts, and my rough math puts GAAP EPS above that even after taxes. Risks: a ~$4.1B deferred tax reversal, inconsistent estimates across sources, and a history of misses. Earnings: Oct 29, after close.Sunday midday session, focus by coin:
1. LAB: 0.044→0.0377, 0.037 is the last line of defense; order book dropped 81,000, pushed up 224,900, lacking users and volume, do not bottom-fish if broken.
2. BTC: 80191, broke 81000, support at 80000; new wallet received 9,458 BTC (771.5 million) from Wintermute, market makers still on Binance; options 80000 positive Gamma may act as mechanical support. Save bullets before FOMC, if breaks 80000 look at 75000.
3. ETH: below 2433, 155 million buy orders at 2300, exchange outflow of 169,770 tokens hits April high; but OG selling, takers biased to sell. Holding 2300 confirms pullback, if broken look at 2256/2226, then down to 2200.
4. RE: 0.377 with only 310,000 volume, thin market, lack of participants; waiting for chain liquidations to trigger compensation demand.
5. Sentiment: Fear and Greed at 50 neutral. Anchors: LAB 0.037, BTC 80000, ETH 2300, no dramatics. $BTC $SOL $ETH #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Samsung's Oct 29 Q3 release matters because the preliminary profit jump only describes the outcome, not its durability. HBM4 shipments, memory pricing, and profitability across businesses can show whether AI memory demand is broadening earnings power or merely lifting a narrow part of the cycle. That distinction will shape confidence in the improvement.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook In the past month, USDC decreased by 3.7 billion, and USDT decreased by 1.194 billion. My first reaction after reading this was: where exactly did the money that people kept shouting about waiting to buy the dip go?
I checked the changes in USDC over the past month, and there are indeed many overlaps with BTC's trend. Especially during several obvious drops in USDC supply, BTC was also weakening.
But there's one thing that's easy to misjudge. For example, if someone redeems USDC for dollars, it could be withdrawing funds or just a matter of fund management; if someone uses USDC to buy BTC, the stablecoin just changed holders, and the total supply doesn't decrease at all. So just looking at this 4.9 billion doesn't tell us how much selling pressure there really is.
What I want to know more is, among these reduced stablecoins, how much truly left the crypto market, and how much just moved elsewhere.
BTC midday price is 80,583, with the 15-minute 20 moving average still pressing at 80,825. I’m not changing my bullish view for now, planning to buy near 79,600, set stop loss at 78,800, and target 82,000 first, then see about 83,500.
But this time I will watch one more condition: if when BTC breaks through 82,000, USDC and USDT supply are still continuously declining, I might halve the position I originally planned to add.
Conversely, if stablecoin supply starts to rise and BTC can reclaim the previous high, I’d be more willing to hold the long position longer.
Lately, I’ve been staring at candlesticks for a long time, but sometimes it’s really better to see if the money has come back.The open interest of perpetual contracts did not decrease but increased from October 24 to 25, rising from 8.44 million contracts to 8.79 million contracts, an increase of about 350,000 contracts. On the same day, SOL was hammered down to 98.62 intraday, nearly a 4% drop within the day.
Open interest is the sum of positions on both sides; its increase indicates new positions entering the market, but the direction cannot be inferred from open interest itself. The simultaneous price plunge and rise in open interest statistically lean more towards shorts and hedging positions. Bulls willing to take positions at this level would not cause a significant increase in open interest. The funding rate supports this: at 00:00 on October 25, the funding rate turned negative to 0.00002754%, with the mark price at 99.71. Funding rates turning from positive to negative usually occur when shorts dominate.
What truly explains the situation is the following segment. At 23:00 on October 24, open interest peaked at 8.79 million contracts, then fell to 8.52 million contracts by noon on October 25, a decrease of 270,000 contracts. During this period, the price barely moved, hovering around 102.6. Price staying flat while open interest drops indicates positions are exiting, but the direction remains unchanged.
$SOL is currently reported around 102.6. This batch of newly opened positions withdrew 270,000 contracts, and the price did not rise, indicating the exiting longs were not absorbed. A decline in open interest itself is not a bullish signal; it only shows leverage is retreating. A true bullish reversal requires the price to first break back above 104 with increased volume. Without volume movement, the exiting positions will continue to unwind.I just reviewed the stablecoin data from the past month: USDC decreased by 3.7 billion, USDT also dropped by 1.194 billion, totaling about 4.9 billion. This outflow scale is quite dramatic, no wonder BTC has been struggling to rise recently.
I specifically looked at the changes in USDC supply and BTC price; the two lines often move quite similarly. When USDC decreases sharply, BTC usually doesn't have a good time. When USDC starts to increase, BTC tends to rally.
However, there's a confusing point here: a decrease in USDC doesn't necessarily mean people are selling coins to cash out; it could also be redemptions or fund migrations. Some people exchange USDC for USDT, so the money actually remains within the market. But now even USDT supply is decreasing, so this needs closer attention.
I'm still bullish on BTC, but I don't want to chase around 81,000 these days. At midday, BTC was at 80,583, with the 15-minute 20 moving average at 80,825, which is still capping the short-term. I plan to buy around 79,500–79,900 with a stop loss at 78,800, targeting 82,000 and 83,500 upwards.
Also, I plan to add USDC changes into my daily market monitoring. Everyone is researching where liquidations are happening and which whales have opened how much leverage, but I'm more interested in seeing if stablecoin supply can rise when BTC pushes to 82,000 again.
If the coin price goes up but USDC keeps dropping, I might reduce my position first. After all, this round has been quite a rollercoaster, and I want to hold my long positions a bit longer.周末流动性差，最容易让人误判趋势阶段。 你以为这是山寨在补涨？其实市场在给BTC重新定价风险。 我盯着这组数据看了一会儿，越看越觉得味道不对。表面上是资金去炒BTC的"影子资产"，但主流币一个都没被带起来，BCH也软软的，这就不是普通的板块轮动了。周末薄流动性放大了局部投机，却掩盖了真正在发生的事：市场在重新给BTC定价，而不是在扩散风险偏好。 先看几个关键信号： - BTC卡在30日区间0.2%的位置，月内只跌3.6%，RSI 42。这不是崩，是被钉在底部做积累，跌势被控制住了，更像启动前的沉默而非派发。 - XRP最弱，30日区间6.1%，RSI 34.7接近超卖，月跌18%，三条均线全压头上。技术面最差，但也意味着空头预期已经打得比较满。 - BCH夹在中间，MA7贴着279，RSI 40.9，30日区间16.7%。弱但没塌，缺的是方向，不是信心。 这里有个容易被忽略的第二层传导：如果BTC在80000上方稳住，周末这种山寨投机反而可能是风险偏好回暖的前哨，只是顺序错了——先炒影子，再等主流确认。反之，80000一破，散户情绪会先慌，周末薄流动性下的下跌会被放大，XRP这种已经超The most noteworthy news today in the AI circle and on-chain: Switzerland approved its first spot Bitcoin ETF aimed at retail investors.
Issuer BIT Asset Management targets a November listing on the SIX exchange. This is the first time Swiss regulators have opened the door for retail investors to access a spot Bitcoin ETF.
There are two other pieces of news in the same batch that are interesting to compare.
HSBC's Hong Kong dollar stablecoin RedCoin launched on PayMe, available to 3.3 million users, usable at over 100,000 merchants, running on HSBC's own private ledger.
Bybit obtained Dubai VARA's first full spot trading license, but still needs to complete the launch process before going live.
Putting these three together, the direction is clear: traditional finance is moving onto the chain, not the chain waiting for traditional finance. HSBC uses a private ledger for its stablecoin, not a public blockchain; Switzerland's ETF approval goes through a regulated exchange, not DeFi.
The real variable this round isn't the coin price, but "who issues licenses and who builds the channels." Once these channels are established, the path for retail investors to enter will be completely different from the previous cycle.
I will be watching two things: whether Switzerland's ETF can list on schedule in November, and whether HSBC's stablecoin will expand beyond Hong Kong. $SIGN is bearish. There are 21 days left until the cliff unlocking on 11-15, with the pressure window concentrated in the 7 days before the unlock, which hasn't arrived yet. The highs on the chart have been steadily rising, so the structure is indeed intact. However, this rally is happening in a very thin market, with trading volume and contract open interest close to zero; a 5.5% amplitude can be pushed by very few orders. Such a thin support cannot withstand a concentrated supply release; in the week before the unlock, the event will outweigh the technical structure. Backtesting shows that in the 7 days before large unlocks, $SIGN underperforms the market; two sample periods show consistent direction, with about three-quarters of events closing negative. After the unlock, there is no stable direction. Therefore, watching the unlock day itself is not very meaningful; what matters is monitoring $SIGN's strength relative to the market in the final week. There were only 3 long liquidations, and almost no leverage was used, so the possibility of a drop accelerated by liquidations is very small; it is more likely a gradual weakening. Conditions to turn bullish: after entering the 7 days before the unlock, if $SIGN outperforms the market and holds above 0.011238, the bearish view is invalidated. If it first breaks below 0.010648, it indicates that supply has already been priced in early. $BTC $BTC breaks below $80,000! $436 million liquidated in 4 hours, have the bulls really been cleaned out?
Last night's plunge suggests the market situation is not that simple.
📉 BTC once fell below $80,000, with approximately $436 million liquidated across the market within 4 hours, about $404 million of which came from long positions.
More worrisome is that the US BTC spot ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days, totaling about $773 million.
My judgment: this looks more like a leverage purge, but it’s too early to confirm that the bottom has been reached.
Next, focus on three key signals:
① The $80,000 level: can the rebound sustain and hold above this?
② Open Interest (OI): if the price rebounds but OI doesn’t show a clear increase, it might just be shorts covering, not new money entering.
③ Federal Reserve decision: the rate decision on October 28 could be the catalyst for the next wave of volatility.
⚠️ The biggest risk isn’t the drop itself, but thinking leverage has been fully cleaned out, only to face a second round of liquidations.
Around $80,000, do you see a golden pit or a continuation of the downtrend?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Liquidation #FederalReserve #Cryptocurrency
For market discussion only, not investment advice.Bond yields soared to about 15.8%, and on Thursday they plunged about 10% to a new low around 53.5. The $CRWV bond market is signaling distress earlier than the stock price.
On Thursday, $CRWV closed around 55.60, dropping about 10% in a single day, with an intraday low near 53.50, hitting a 52-week low.
On Friday, it closed again at 54.24 (about -2.5%), having lost roughly 37% since October, marking the third consecutive week of declines.
External reports say the debt has piled up to about $50 billion, with the 2031 bond yield spiking to about 15.8%; Bernstein cut its target price from 74 to 51, and Morgan Stanley cut from 99 to 70.
I believe the bond market is repricing financing costs, and I don’t think the story is over just because it’s near 54.
On Monday, watch if it can hold around 53.5–54; only after it recovers to about 60–62 should we reconsider. If the daily close breaks below about 53.5, the narrative of previous lows will loosen further.
Do you think this is a temporary brake on AI infrastructure financing, or just an overreaction driven by sentiment?
$CRWV
#Today'sMarketTalkTrump has spoken:
The fastest strike on Iran could be today.
Bitcoin is again hovering around 80,000,
It already broke below once last night.
Let's look at the accounts from the past few days:
On October 22, the strike plan was exposed,
Bitcoin dropped from 84,000 straight down to 80,000,
The big fund was redeemed for $635 million in one day.
As soon as the upgrade news came out,
the coin price dropped 2% to 5% that day.
Today is the final showdown,
Old Trump is really ruthless.
If they strike: no one will catch the fall over the weekend,
Bitcoin will be the first to get hit,
Whether 80,000 holds or not depends on these two days.
If no strike: an agreement is reached, bad news settles,
Instead, it should rise as it should.
Why is 80,000 so critical?
Long-term followers of my posts know:
The big fund's cost of holding coins is between 80,000 and 81,500.
If the daily close breaks below, they all turn to losses on paper,
The next support level is at 77,600.
Historical references go both ways:
On the day the war started at the end of February,
Bitcoin's price dropped then recovered that day;
After being hit in early September,
the next day it actually rose 5%.
The panic-induced dip
may not be a pitfall, it could be the bottom.
My view:
Don't do anything today.
Why?
No one can say for sure if there will be a strike,
Buying now is guessing it will rise;
Selling now is guessing it will fall.
If you guess wrong, it's a real loss of money.
When the result comes out tonight,
Whether it falls or rises will be clear,
Then act, it's not too late at all.
#Bitcoin #BTC Recently saw a whale's contract positions, really quite shocking! Holding three short positions simultaneously on BTC, ETH, and SOL, with a total position value of about 534 million U, and the account's total perpetual contract position value is about 720 million U. The most interesting part is that all three short positions are currently at a floating loss, but the accumulated funding fee income has already exceeded 11 million U! 📊 Let's look at the specific positions: 🔴 BTC: 5x full position short, holding 2637.95 coins, entry price $76,327.4. Current floating loss is 12.0622 million U, accumulated funding fee income 3.0531 million U. 🔴 ETH: 5x full position short, holding about 106,400 coins, entry price $2,322.74. Current floating loss is 4.7626 million U, accumulated funding fee income 4.1833 million U. 🔴 SOL: 7x full position short, holding about 720,100 coins, entry price $94.3199. Current floating loss is 5.955 million U, accumulated funding fee income 3.7923 million U. 💰 Total floating loss for the three positions is 22.7798 million U, accumulated funding fee income 11.0287 million U! 💡 Here are my thoughts. This whale's positions are indeed interesting. The three short positions bear huge price volatility risk, while partially offsetting losses through funding fee income. But there is a problem here: No matter how much funding fee is earned, if the price continues to rise against the position, it still might not hold up. Also, the funding fee rate changes and is not stable income every day. I think the biggest test for this strategy,Yesterday I wrote on $ORDER: OKX only has perpetuals, no spot; the top 20 depth is only $11,000. Today, this statement is half-validated — last night it peaked at 0.10312, now at 0.05276, down 48.8%.
The depth is even thinner: now the top 20 buy orders total $2,451, sell orders $1,977, combined $4,428, less than half of yesterday. The 24-hour nominal turnover of OKX perpetuals is 343 million, while Orderly's market cap is only 22.6 million, a 15x turnover.
Funding rates are harsher: the settlement at 00:00 on 10-25 was -1%, shorts were paying longs 1%, then it narrowed to the current -0.146%. Perpetual discount: index 0.05321, mark price 0.05277.
Open interest dropped from a peak of 3.6 million to 2.4 million, down 33%, but the price fell 49% — longs were squeezed out, not voluntarily exited.
Upbit KRW market is down 27.96% today, with 24-hour volume of 348.4 billion KRW, about $260 million.
My lesson: thin depth doesn't mean you can't trade, but your stop-loss price will be eaten through by yourself. The stop-loss you place in such a market will execute at a worse price than you expect.
Did you chase on $ORDER, or are you waiting for a pullback? Earnings report exceeded expectations, but that doesn't mean you should chase the rally
RingCentral official Q3: Revenue $676 million, up 5.9% year-over-year; non-GAAP EPS $1.33, higher than market expectations of about $1.28 (Investing.com).
Full-year free cash flow guidance raised to $620–630 million, non-GAAP EPS guidance to 5.07–5.12.
$RNG opened high at 90.98 on October 23 (Friday), surged intraday to 98.14, closed at 83.39, up about 5% from the previous close of 79.42.
What I think is more critical is the intraday pullback:
Profits and cash flow look good, but subscription revenue of $653 million still falls short of some consensus around $667 million.
Surging to 98 then dropping back to 83 indicates that those buying the news are already taking profits.
My approach: observe, don't chase.
Wait for a volume-backed close above 98.14 (Friday's high) before considering a breakout.
If it falls below 79.42 (pre-earnings close), it means the gap fill is complete, so stay away.
Do you think Monday will hold 83, or will it fill the gap first?
$RNG $rng
#RingCentralQ3财报超预期
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ HBM4很难成为Q3盈利的主要增量，本季业绩主力仍是HBM3E+服务器DDR5涨价；HBM4的盈利拉动要在Q4和明年才会明显兑现$IRYS The BTC price has dropped to 80,000 so many times, yet I never got liquidated.
But my account went to zero, and it was actually because of a token called IRYS.
I was holding BTC properly, and ONE was also in my plan. Seeing IRYS surge tenfold in three days, I still couldn't resist opening a short. The price crazily rallied overnight, my margin got wiped out, and eventually, the entire account was gone.
The most ironic part is, I was originally watching BTC's four-year cycle, but in the end, I got wrecked by a short-term speculative token. Trying to catch a sudden opportunity ended up destroying my original trading plan.
This is actually a risk that's easy to overlook: positions in different tokens seem separate, but if they share margin, an extreme move in one can drag down other positions too. You think you're making several trades, but in reality, you've staked your entire account's survival on them all together.
The crypto world never lacks opportunities; the hardest part is not chasing every single one.
Everyone understands this, but when it comes to yourself, you still get itchy hands. 😂 This tuition fee was expensive enough.
$BTC $ONE
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Position Sizes:
* $BTC : Short 2,637 BTC, valued at $210 million, with 5x leverage and an average entry price of $76,327.
* $ETH : Short 106,400 ETH, valued at $250 million, with 5x leverage and an average entry price of $2,322.
* $SOL : Short 720,000 SOL, valued at $73.87 million, with 7x leverage and an average entry price of $94.30.
Total nominal exposure: Approximately $534 million — a massive bearish bet.
What stands out most are the reported liquidation prices.
#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI $APR ‼️ The bulls pulled so hard today, yet overall they are still at a loss!
The average entry price for the bulls is around 0.063, which is even higher than today's peak price.
In other words, even at the highest price point, the bulls as a whole couldn't break even, and now that the price has dropped, their losses have expanded.
Most of these long positions were opened at higher prices before, so every future rally will be an opportunity for them to reduce their positions.
Looking at the bears, their positions are larger than the bulls', and even though the price was pushed up significantly today, they are still making money overall.
Even such a strong rally couldn't make the bears lose money; if no stronger buying comes in later, the price will struggle to rise back up.
Such a fierce rally couldn't force the bears out, so the price will only find it harder to rise later. If not shorting now, then when!$SOL: Go long!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back and stabilize within the 99.5-100.5 range (above the previous spike low and the integer support zone) before entering a long position.
· The initial target is 101.8-102.5 (EMA moving averages dense resistance zone). A valid breakout will target 104.6 (bearish average cost zone). Set stop loss below 98.0.
Core rationale:
1. Extreme short squeeze: Chart 2 shows the nominal long-short ratio is only 16.58%, with short positions reaching 348 million U, more than six times the longs. Shorts have substantial unrealized profits and are extremely crowded; once the price stabilizes and rebounds, it can easily trigger short covering, driving a short squeeze rally.
2. Spike deep V reversal: On the 1-hour chart, after a violent spike down to 98.54, the price quickly recovered and closed bullish, indicating strong buying support at the bottom, short-term exhaustion of bearish momentum, and a need for corrective rebound.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: The EMA5/10/20 are tightly clustered near 101.8, forming short-term resistance, making chasing longs risky. Enter longs on a pullback to the 99.5-100.5 support zone with a clear stop loss, aiming for a rebound to 104, the short cost zone, offering an excellent risk-reward ratio.
#OctoberFOMC approaching, what variables remain with the Fed pausing rate hikes? Next week really feels like a "final showdown"🔥
The Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady; last month's inflation exceeded expectations but officials said "it won't affect the next meeting." Don't just focus on this one—the real fireworks will be in December's wording, where a single sentence from Waller could rewrite the market script👀
On the US-Iran front, Iran has signaled peace for the second time, Trump said "oil prices will fall from highs after the war ends," so the farce might be wrapping up; but with negotiations going back and forth, don't take the ending as set in stone🛢️
$AMZN earnings on October 29, the seasonal pattern of lows from July to October and highs from November to January has a chance, with the Christmas Q4 e-commerce peak as the driver; but the premise is that the earnings report doesn't collapse, as quality determines whether the peak can be realized📦
$DELL's Nvidia partnership plus Trump's children's accounts are quite lively, with short-term sentiment optimistic; but AI servers have high revenue elasticity and low profit elasticity, Nvidia components take the lion's share, so don't just look at the positives💻
$SPCX earnings are strong: revenue 14.6 billion, up 161% year-over-year, net profit 4.4 billion, the "big rocket" is priced attractively and the business has prospects, strongly related to TRUMP; but this is a double-edged sword—midterm election changes could bring regulatory and investigation risks🚀
In a word: the big picture is fine, but don't chase catalysts linearly on individual stocks; the real meat is in the expectation gaps after events land🥩#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 Connecting to Nasdaq does not mean stocks can already be bought
TokenPost reported on October 24: NEAR co-founder said Intents is connecting to Nasdaq and NYSE, allowing counterparties to buy stocks and tokenize them to wallets.
The same article clarifies: this is a hypothetical path, not a completed transaction.
$NEAR, however, hit a low of 4.25 that day and closed at 4.408; OKX is currently about 4.419, down approximately 27% from the October 12 high of 6.028.
I think the key lies in the gap between "narrative" and "product":
The connection is to counterparty routing, not that users can now just click to buy US stocks.
On the same day, about $11.65 million long positions were liquidated, and on October 28 there is a Backers Summit to discuss token economics.
My approach: observe, don’t chase.
If it recovers above 4.896 (October 24 high), then watch for a bottom.
If it breaks below 4.25 (October 24 low), it means the sell-off is not over, keep your distance.
Do you think it will recover to 4.90 next, or break 4.25 first?
$NEAR
#纳斯达克指数连续两日创历史新高 $ETH
At the 2300 level, I am bullish, at least in the short term.
Today, ETH dipped as low as 2282, broke 2300 once again, then pulled back near 2345 by the close. It only dropped 1.4% in 24 hours, which looks much better than during the session. The midday news mentioned an address that opened 27,000 ETH long positions below 2300, a position worth over 60 million USD. The news reported a floating profit of about 800,000 and even tagged it with a “100% win rate.”
I usually read “100% win rate” with some skepticism, meaning it hasn’t been hit yet, not necessarily great skill. But daring to keep buying on the day of the breakdown shows real conviction.
The perpetual funding rate is now 0.001%, basically near zero, with open interest at 1.44 billion USD. Not many are chasing with leverage, indicating this rally is supported by spot buying, not contract hype.
Breaking down but recovering is better than falling through directly. I’m biased bullish, that’s it.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The hottest person in the meme circle recently is Solana trader Kimchi. He flaunts luxury cars and profits, officially announces cooperation with Pump.fun, and even collaborated with Bottega Veneta, with many big influencers endorsing him.
But on-chain data poured cold water: He claims to have earned 40 million USD through $TRUMP, but Bubblemaps tracked related wallets earning only about 6 million USD.
On October 20, someone launched a copycat coin with the same name. Three related wallets simultaneously bought the new and dumped the old, turning $7,332 into $111,700 in less than a minute. The original coin dropped from $5.35 million to $875,000 within 15 minutes, and those who entered later all ended up holding the bag.
Fengzi's anti-scam reminders:
1. Big influencer endorsements do not equal safety; the bigger the name, the easier it is to be exploited.
2. Same-name coins are everywhere; only trust the contract, not the name.
3. Anyone can fake screenshots of profits; verify with on-chain data before trusting.
4. If it pumps instantly at launch and the tokens are highly concentrated, better to miss out.
You can watch the excitement, but keep your wallet tight. #meme #Solana
Not investment advice, DYOR#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings We are just 9 days away from the US midterm elections.
History shows that after every U.S. midterm election, Bitcoin has experienced a correction.
Will this time be different?$ETH #BTC spot ETF funds fluctuate, can the market buying hold steady? $BTC is currently around 80,600, after a weekend dip to 79,146 it has recovered. The 50-day moving average at 81,700 has turned into resistance, and 82,700 is the line for recovery confirmation. 24h liquidations total 810 million, with long positions accounting for 689 million; ETF weekly net inflow is 301 million, but IBIT alone holds 566 million while others outflow 265 million, indicating a fragile structure. No position taking before the FOMC.From 0.058 to 0.046, the bursting of an L1 narrative bubble.
The recent $STRK market perfectly illustrates "buy the rumor, sell the fact." On October 8, news about L1 triggered a short squeeze, and after the vote ended on the 22nd, the positive sentiment was fully priced in, resulting in a weekly drop of over 43%, with bulls suffering heavy losses.
Trade data: shorted 50x at 0.05831. Three layers of logic: positive news realized, large token unlock approaching, and a bearish moving average crossover technically.
Mark price at 0.04638, profit +1022.98%. The market rewards those who stay calm.
What’s next? If the 0.04 support breaks, the decline will accelerate. This cycle teaches us: for coins driven purely by narrative hype, the realization of positive news marks the top. Respect the market. $BTC $IRYS FIL is not falling alone today. BTC and ETH have pulled back slightly, while storage-related tokens like AR, GRT, and FIL have seen much sharper declines. High-volatility sectors are taking the biggest hit. With FIL’s long positions heavily concentrated, broader market weakness could trigger cascading liquidations and intensify selling pressure.
#WillFedPauseInOctober $ETH's weekend dump was even harsher than Bitcoin's. On Binance at 11 PM Beijing time last night, the price dropped straight from 2,342 to 2,282, with $140 million traded in one hour, which is more than ten times the usual volume.
According to MyToken data, $781 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with $231 million in ETH liquidations alone, nearly catching up to $BTC's $250 million. By market cap, Ethereum's leverage is clearly heavier.
It has now rebounded to around 2,347, but is still down 1.3% over 24 hours. At 1 PM, the price was pushed down again from 2,368 to 2,337, with a weak rebound.
Binance futures hold about 2.29 million ETH contracts, equivalent to roughly $5.3 billion, with a funding rate of 0.009%. The longs were shaken out but haven't really exited.
The Fed meets next Tuesday and Wednesday, and oil prices remain above $117. I think ETH will struggle to have an independent rally before the meeting. If the 2,280 support breaks again, it will look quite bad. Yesterday the market saw a rare synchronization: BTC, US stocks, gold, and silver all fell together. Safe-haven funds did not flow into the crypto space but instead surged into US Treasuries. Even gold was sold off, indicating that this is not just a normal risk appetite cooling, but a tightening of liquidity.
The bond market sounded the alarm first: large corporate financing costs are rising, Meta's default costs hit a record high, and big players are choosing to stash their money in the safest places first. Oil prices surged again, inflation remains hard to suppress, rate cut expectations are further away, and liquidity will only tighten.
BTC currently has only one line of defense left: 80,000–81,500, the big players' cost zone. Holding this can allow for consolidation and digestion; if broken, the next stop is 77,600.
The entire market is sheltering from the storm; don't stand in the rain and tough it out. Hold 80,000 before considering bottom fishing; if it breaks, exit first. The real risk of a major crash is still ahead, a big collapse is inevitable.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 The core logic is that after the halving and unlocking benefits are realized, the market is digesting the pressure of "buying the expectation, selling the fact." On October 15, the first block reward halving since launch occurred, with the single block reward dropping from 32 FIL to 16 FIL, and the daily new circulation volume significantly decreased; at the same time, the six-year unlocking period of Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation ended, with the daily unlocking inflow expected to reduce by about 75%. Subsequently, on October 19, the Solstice upgrade was launched, changing the reward mechanism to be more oriented towards "real paid storage," where unearned rewards will be destroyed, and the network further shifted to a revenue-driven model. However, after the upgrade was implemented, the price did not continue to strengthen; instead, it fell back from the mid-October range of 1.15–1.27, indicating that short-term funds chose to take profits after the benefits were realized. FIL is more driven by its own supply contraction + economic model reform + AI storage narrative. Overall, FIL is currently in a stage where the supply side is improving but the price has not yet confirmed. In the long term, the halving and the end of unlocking reduce selling pressure, but in the short term, the price still needs to wait to stand above 0.99–1.10 to confirm an effective rebound. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The current Q3 Normalized EPS consensus median for SKHY is between $5.96 and $6.25, with the threshold of $6.25 exactly at the top end of the consensus. However, the actual performance has a high probability of surpassing this level. Citi's latest forecast for Q3 operating profit is **81.3 trillion KRW**, about 8% higher than the market consensus of **75.5 trillion KRW**. Even considering the headwind from the KRW exchange rate, the profit-side outperformance is enough to push the ADR-based EPS over $6.25. The core driver is that HBM4 officially started supplying NVIDIA from Q3, combined with DRAM and NAND prices rising approximately 22% and 15%, respectively. The actual EPS for the previous quarter (Q2) was $8.76, far exceeding the consensus of $5.12, an upside surprise of 71%, indicating that sell-side models remain conservative. Several brokerages have recently raised their target prices, and there is room for upward revision in consensus. The $6.25 threshold is closer to the "base case" rather than the "optimistic case," and the actual probability of strictly exceeding this value is relatively high. A total of 225,000 accounts were brutally liquidated, and Binance's ETH also had a huge liquidation order of 11.85 million U. Breaking it down, BTC liquidations reached 236 million, ETH 183 million. Even the previously boasting whales with high win rates stumbled, going long against the trend and bottom-fishing, instantly losing 39.9 million, with their accounts turning to a loss of 30.02 million, and their win rate dropping directly to 77.7%. No matter how strong the big holders are, when facing such a one-sided downturn, they can't hold up any better than ordinary retail investors. The vast majority of those liquidated had the same mindset: after such a big drop, there should be a rebound. But everyone must remember, bottom-fishing hastily during a downtrend is not a signal of a bottom; it only prepares the market with the next batch of chips to be liquidated. There are really too many traps in bottom-fishing. #OctoberFOMCApproaching What are the uncertainties if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes? #BTCSpotETFFunds fluctuate repeatedly, can market buying stabilize? #MiddleEastOilSupplyRisksRise, oil prices continue to strengthen $BTC $ETH $IRYS