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Middle East crude oil transportation has gradually resumed, yet oil prices remain firmly high, which many find contradictory. $CL
The core issue is that the risk premium has not disappeared: the Houthi militants have recently continued attacking Saudi energy facilities and oil pipelines. Although Saudi Arabia intercepted some missiles, the threat to facilities remains.
Although Trump stated that the US-Iran conflict might end quickly and Iran is willing to negotiate diplomatically, no substantive agreement has been reached so far. The geopolitical easing is only an expectation, not a realized outcome.
Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, but the insurance costs for oil tankers and the security costs caused by detours remain high. These costs are directly factored into oil prices.
Last Friday, Brent $BZ closed at $116.72 per barrel, WTI at $103.27 per barrel.
Currently, the market is a game of two expectations: on one side, the positive outlook of diplomatic easing; on the other, the risk of energy facilities being attacked and shipping routes being interrupted again at any time. The future direction of oil prices depends mainly on whether facility security and shipping costs continue to rise.
By the way, high oil prices will push up inflation expectations, coinciding with this week's FOMC, which is a key macro variable that the crypto market needs to watch closely. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ High returns, do they necessarily mean better investment opportunities?Analysis of the Federal Reserve's Impact on Bitcoin in October
1. Baseline Scenario — Maintain Interest Rates + Neutral to Hawkish Speech
No ruling out of a December rate hike, emphasizing that inflation remains above target, high rates need to be maintained longer, and no early commitment to rate cuts.
Market Reaction
U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate slightly, the dollar index strengthens slightly. Bitcoin initially dips slightly in the short term, then consolidates.
Market characteristics: bearish factors realized, increased volatility, contract markets prone to short-term long and short liquidations.
Medium to long term: the market continues to trade on whether there will be a December rate hike, BTC ranges sideways, difficult to break into a strong bull market.
2. More Hawkish Than Expected — Pause Rate Hikes but Clearly Signal High Probability of December Hike
Chair's statement: inflation is sticky, December hike still necessary, removed statements about inflation easing.
Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens. Bitcoin drops sharply, deep correction, many long contracts liquidated, consistent with the decline logic after the September minutes release.
-Core logic: market raises peak rate expectations, high rates maintained longer, leveraged funds in crypto markets under pressure, ETF funds prone to net outflows.
3. Slightly Dovish Surprise — Maintain Rates, Weaken Subsequent Hike Expectations
Statement: inflation has clearly cooled, no further hikes needed, data will be observed, no preset December hike.
Market Reaction: U.S. Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens, risk appetite recovers. Bitcoin rebounds quickly, ETF funds return, short-term bullish momentum activated Why is the token price low, but not necessarily cheap先说为什么这周可能是今年最关键的一周。 中期选举在9天后的11月3日，但这周已经是决定走向的窗口。目前预测显示民主党大概率横扫参众两院，特朗普将失去对很多政策的控制权。这意味着他只有两个选项——要么在选举前最后窗口期对伊朗发动最终打击，要么在选举前争取达成某种协议来扭转选情。无论走哪条路，油价和风险资产都将被注入剧烈的波动。 同时48小时后美联储利率决议会落地。宏观叠加地缘，这周几乎每天都是潜在的重大波动节点。 技术面上，比特币目前仍在测试下降楔形的下行趋势线，每次触碰都获得支撑。79,000这个位置我已经说了很多次——那里有约2,000万美元的大额现货买单布防，是当前区间下沿最核心的支撑区，如果价格到达那里我会开新的单子，至少我预期能反弹至81,000附近。 流动性热力图显示上下两端都在同步积累清算单，这种结构历史上几乎总是先扫一边再走另一边——要么先向上扫顶部流动性再下来，要么先向下扫底部流动性再起飞。方向还没有选择，但假突破来临的时候要保持清醒。 如果比特币真的向下到75,000以下，从成交量分布来看71,000到75,000是历史上最密集的成交量支撑带——那个位置我会非常激进地Strategy will release its Q3 earnings report after the US stock market closes this Thursday, with an estimated single-quarter digital asset book profit of about $20.9 billion. As of October 18, it holds 848,517 BTC with an average cost of $75,446 per coin.
However, that data is as of the end of September. At the beginning of October, it was still acquiring around 85,800 BTC, and now with $BTC back near 80,200, the cushion from its average cost is only about 6%. In the past two weeks, it has only bought two to three hundred coins per week, with most of the funds used to repurchase STRC preferred shares. MSTR's weekly issuance is only about $20 million, which has basically no impact on the market.
The earnings report numbers are likely to look good, but the market will be more concerned about how high the mNAV can hold and whether there is money to continue buying. The 80,000 level is currently supported by ETF and futures funds, not Saylor, so expecting the earnings report to trigger a rally is unrealistic.
In the short term, 79,400 is around today's low; if it breaks below, reduce positions first. Resistance is between 80,900 and 81,300; if it can't break above, don't chase longs. I am only opening a light position with a stop loss below 79,200, and will take partial profits if it rebounds near 81,000. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $BTC 【10·26 Afternoon｜ETH/SOL/ZEC: Three Pricing Types】
$ETH 2318, down <1%, liquidations peaked at 41.86 million; exchange net outflow of 169,000 tokens, the largest in nearly 4 months, ETF outflows in October exceed $1.2 billion, marking four consecutive weeks. Unable to hold 2330, "bottoming out" is just a narrative; Hoodi testnet launch ≠ capital inflow. Weak with no divergence, the weakest also comes last.
$SOL 100.97, down 0.34%, liquidations at 4.98 million lowest; spot net inflow of 5.84 million, Firedancer/Alpenglow support the narrative, but ETF outflows for three consecutive weeks, nearly 72 million in the past month. Holding 100.50–100.80, stable but slow, lacking marginal buyers.
$ZEC 1209.76, up 1.6%, the only gainer; liquidations at 5.07 million, market cap only about 1/3 of SOL, most aggressive leverage; positive fee rate = longs paying to hold positions. NU7, halving, privacy story concentrated, strongest yet most fragile.
Ranking: strength ZEC > SOL > ETH;
Support: SOL > ZEC > ETH;
Leverage fragility ZEC > ETH > SOL.
Watch for narrowing ETH ETF outflows, ZEC positive fee rate reversal.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 30x leverage, 795 BTC, unrealized loss close to $880,000, this giant whale added another 302.5 BTC margin during the downturn. Do you see courage, or a forced add-on after being trapped? When I scrolled to this set of on-chain data, I paused for a few seconds. The address with 30x BTC long positions on Hyperliquid continued to add margin during today's pullback, holding 795.02 BTC nominally worth about $63.65 million, with an unrealized loss of about $878,000. The same account also holds a ZEC long position, 4717 coins worth about $5.67 million, entry price 1195.7. The numbers themselves are not surprising; what’s surprising is the timing of the action—prices are falling, yet they choose to double down. I tend to interpret this kind of behavior as a signal of the trend phase rather than a directional signal. Large players in the initiation phase often test with light positions; they dare to increase positions only in the continuation phase. Adding margin during a pullback is more like a typical scene in the divergence phase: longs unwilling to admit defeat, pushing the liquidation line further back with real money. This does not equal bullishness; it only shows that someone treats risk exposure as proof of conviction. 30x leverage means that a price reversal of just over 3% will hit the maintenance margin threshold. An unrealized loss of $880,000 relative to a nominal $63.65 million is only about 1.4%, seemingly comfortable but actually with very thin buffer. For BTC, this kind of high-leverage long concentration is a double-edged sword. The bullish path is: if the price stabilizes at the current level and recovers the drop, these trapped chips will become the most steadfast holders, with short covering combined with leveraged longs extending the life, easily leading to a period of emotional recovery.This week the interest rate decision will be announced. I’m not guessing the rate, I only care about how the chips are placed. The market is pricing in a 76% chance of a rate hike in December. At times like this, the fuller the chips are placed, the fiercer the position unwinding after the meeting — in December 2018, everyone was betting on tightening before the meeting, and the S&P dropped 9.2% that month. When the tone eased, the first to move wasn’t the price, but the positions. The variable this time isn’t the rate itself, but oil prices and votes: oil prices have been pushed to a six-month high, the Middle East’s stance fluctuates, and the midterm elections are eight days away on November 3. The White House wants low rates and low oil prices, while the central bank wants to maintain inflation control face; these two priorities are ranked behind the votes. So I don’t bet on direction before the meeting; I buy the business before the meeting: the one with real cash flow settled on-chain, plus the two whose chips have just been cleaned out. The direction is biased bullish, and I control position size conventionally. After the decision lands and positions are fully unwound, the real market move will begin. #ThisWeekOctoberFOMCInterestRateDecisionWillBeAnnounced The FOMC is very likely to hold steady this week, with CME giving a 90% probability of no change in October and a 68.9% chance of a rate hike in December. But honestly, whether they raise rates or not isn't the main point; the key is whether the money is still in the market. The wording is more worth watching than the decision itself.
$BTC is grinding back and forth between 79,500 and 80,000, with four consecutive daily declines and volume visibly shrinking. It can't break above 81,000, nor can it break below 79,000; bulls and bears are both stuck waiting for a word. $ETH is at 2,320, with over $1 billion net outflow from ETFs in October; this trend looks like a boat leaking from the bottom.
$ZEC is at 1,188, with funding rates still at +0.01%—the price is slowly falling, but the bulls keep paying to hold on. I personally hold a 500 short position, and seeing this funding rate, I just think the other side is pretty stubborn.
The FOMC won't provide answers. What I really want to see are two things: whether $BTC can break back above 81,000 with volume, and when those $ZEC bulls will stop paying. At times like this, watching the show is cheaper than betting; I choose to sit tight first. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The biggest nuclear bomb of the week is coming. The Fed's FOMC meeting from October 27 to 28 is about to start, and the rate decision will be announced at 2 AM Beijing time on October 29.
On the surface, the market generally expects the rate to remain unchanged this time. But I took a close look at the details in the chart, and this meeting has an extremely fatal feature: no new economic forecast will be released, not even a dot plot.
What does this mean? It means the market has lost an important reference point, and all the games are pinned on that decision statement and the subsequent press conference by the chair.
The comment at the bottom of the chart expresses exactly what I feel: "Pause without turning dovish, 92.8% priced in with a December rate hike blade hidden, the real signal is in the wording."
The market now has a 92.8% expectation of no rate hike, almost completely unprepared. This is extremely dangerous. As long as the statement is a bit hawkish, hinting that December might still require action, or maintaining high vigilance on inflation, that would be a definite "hawkish pause," and risk assets will immediately face a bloodbath. Conversely, if the tone softens, that would truly be good news.
Not to mention, on the evening of October 29, the preliminary Q3 GDP and September PCE data will be released immediately. PMI data has already shown growth slowing but prices rising faster, a typical sign of stagflation.
Looking at the current market, BTC has already dropped near the 80,000 mark, down slightly by 0.41%, with funds holding their breath waiting for the results.
$BTC $NEAR
Trader Mk4's NEAR long position, I've been watching it all day. A $25 million position with an unrealized profit of $12.15 million, nearly 50%. I admire the confidence to hold such a heavy long at this level, but I won't follow.
NEAR is now at 4.53, up less than 3% in 24h, it touched 4.7 at the high and then pulled back. The perpetual contract open interest is $54.5 million, and his position accounts for nearly half. The funding rate is still negative, shorts are paying longs, and with longs squeezed this hard while paying the counterparty, it's usually not a good sign.
Those with the largest unrealized profits are actually closest to liquidation. I don't have the guts, just watching the show.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC on Binance is moving, but it's not the same group moving it. On a 30-day rolling basis, retail deposits doubled from $5.5 billion in April to $10.75 billion, hitting a six-month high; during the same period, whale deposits shrank from $5.9 billion to $3.8 billion, a 36% drop.
What happened? Retail investors are moving money into exchanges, while whales are pulling back. Retail deposits are now 2.8 times the size of whale deposits.
Why is this worth noting? Depositing to exchanges doesn't mean immediate selling, but historically it often signals potential selling pressure. Retail investors are treating the sideways movement above 80,000 as a selling window, while whales show no signs of large-scale distribution.
Which observation is more supported? It favors the idea that "the source of selling pressure during the rebound is changing hands"—the short-term supply side control has temporarily shifted to retail investors, not whales dumping.
Next thing to watch: will the amount whales transfer into Binance reverse from $3.8 billion and start rising? If whales also start moving funds, the rebound will face not just one layer of selling pressure, but two. Do you think retail investors can hold this wave, or will whales make the first move? Share your thoughts in the comments. $BTC RWA Concept Coins: The buzz is theirs, but the interest goes to others 😅
This year, the RWA narrative has been insanely popular, but when you look under the hood of a few "leaders" — only one actually received interest, the rest are just hype groups (￣▽￣)*
$ONDO's business is indeed strong, with its own USD yield product scale reaching over two billion, even surpassing BlackRock. Unfortunately, the token is purely a governance token; none of the protocol fees go into holders' pockets. Technically, MA7/20/30 lines are all pressing down, RSI at 32 approaching oversold, 30-day position only 1.3%, down 26.3% this month, so weak it can't even find support. Even the leader can't withstand the market (╥﹏╥)
$PENDLE also has all three lines pressing down, RSI 36.8 is weak but not yet oversold, 30-day position 6.7%, down 24.1% this month. The decline is slowing but hasn't stopped, hovering near monthly lows to wear you down (´･_･`)
$CFG protocol has fees, but doesn't give them to holders either. 30-day protocol fees are just under 30 million, supported by institutional cooperation with Circle Arc and New York Life to sustain the narrative. All three lines are pressing down and diverging, RSI 24.3 deeply oversold, 30-day position 0.2% hugging the floor, down 39% this month, the worst among the three, accelerating to bottom out (；´д｀)
Summary: The RWA story sounds great, but capturing token value is the hard truth. Don't just look at scale, see whose pockets the money goes into 🤔💸To pour some cold water first, I am bearish, but this news about the "ancient giant whale recharge" is not enough for me to conclude that a dump is coming. According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the Ethereum ICO period address 0x6C6…d2941 has recently deposited a total of 1,500 $ETH to exchanges, worth about 3.46 million USD; this address originally bought 100,000 ETH at a cost of 0.31 USD each. My judgment is: this is a potential selling pressure signal, but the extremely high return rate in the headline easily leads the market to mistake sentiment for evidence.
I see two issues. First, depositing does not equal selling; on-chain transfers can confirm asset location changes but cannot directly confirm transactions. Reading "if sold" as "already cashed out" is a logical leap. Second, a low cost only indicates the holder has a large profit margin, it does not mean this batch of chips is enough to change the market; lacking concurrent buy-side support and transaction data, just looking at 3.46 million USD makes it hard to judge the actual impact. What I am more wary of is that everyone is being led by the word "ancient."
Of course, the bearish view could also be correct. If there is continuous depositing later, along with price weakening and insufficient support, I will raise my judgment of selling pressure; these are my observation conditions, not facts that have already happened. Conversely, if the fund support is stable, I will not use the whale's low cost as a reason to remain bearish. I will first focus on actual support and not write a dump script in advance based on a single deposit.BTC is currently reported at 80,300, with a long-short ratio of 2.2, yet long liquidations account for 68% — more people doesn't mean the direction is right. The 80,000 meat grinder, 188 million long positions liquidated below 78,850, and short positions fueling above 81,000. Whales are accumulating, ETFs are running. $BTC #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC fell below 80,000, with $234 million in long liquidations across the network, but some remain defiant. The top 4 BTC long addresses on Hyperliquid added 302.5 coins after the drop today, bringing their total position to 795.02 coins, valued at $63.65 million, with 30x leverage, an entry price of $81,168, and an unrealized loss of $878,000. The price is around 79,800, and they are still adding margin.
What happened? The market is deleveraging, but this address is increasing leverage. Nearly 196,000 people were liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 84%, yet this address chooses to bet against the liquidation wave.
Why is this noteworthy? 30x leverage means very little room for error. Entry price at 81,168, current price 79,800, not far from forced liquidation. The additional $2.15 million margin is a real-money bet that below 80,000 is the bottom.
Which observation is more supported? It’s more likely "this is not smart money bottom-fishing, but a high-leverage coward’s gamble." Funding rates are low, longs have just been cleaned out, and market sentiment does not support a violent reversal. This position looks more like a bet on a short-term rebound rather than a trend call.
Next thing to watch: will this address add margin a third time? If it stops adding funds, the liquidation chain reaction below 80,000 may not be over. Do you think this 30x whale can hold out for a rebound or become the next liquidation screenshot? Discuss in the comments. $BTC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ "A Day in Heaven, a Day in Hell: The Storage Adjustment Isn't Over, But the Sell-off and Fundamentals Are on Two Different Time Scales"
Let's first look at the rhythm of the past three days: On Monday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.61%, ending an eight-day losing streak; on Tuesday, US storage stocks collectively fell again, the KOSPI dropped 3.73% the same day, and SK Hynix fell 4.23%; today, the Korean stock market rebounded in early trading. One day one direction, this is not a reversal, it's a full divergence.
The reason for the sell-off lies in the long term. The trigger for this round was the news about ChangXin Memory's 4F2 architecture; in mid-October, Hynix fell over 10% in a single day, and the market fears that Chinese supply will sooner or later crush storage prices. But Goldman Sachs said the impact is overestimated; ChangXin is still some distance from true mass production.
Fundamentals are in the near term, and the heat is a completely different picture. Korean customs data: chip exports in the first 20 days of October rose 222.5% year-on-year, reaching $27.5 billion, a new high for the period. KeyBanc expects DRAM prices to rise 15% to 20% and NAND about 20% in Q4. HP and Dell have extended supply agreements to 2031, and Google is negotiating until 2035. Customers are using long-term contracts to secure goods, not cutting orders.
So the verdict is not on the market but in the earnings reports: Hynix on October 28, Samsung on the 29th with full earnings, and SanDisk's earnings, three events in a row. There is also a small side note: Micron's Taiwan factory may strike on Thursday.
Conclusion: It's impossible to conclude now that the adjustment is over. When data and stock prices diverge, chasing rallies or sell-offs is the most costly; wait for the guidance on the 28th before making a decision.🚨 That whale holding 93,000 #ETH long positions, is the ammo running out?
Between 02:50–02:58 early this morning, he topped up two Hyperliquid accounts with 5.67 million USDC, pushing the liquidation price down to 2,181 / 2,177.
I checked the on-chain records: this is already the 4th round of margin top-ups since October. On 10/07, 10/09, 10/18, and 10/25, each round happened after a sharp drop in ETH.
All four rounds of funds came from the same wallet 0x6b9e…0a24, totaling 28.82 million Bitcoin falls below $80,000, stablecoin market liquidity declines
10xResearch reports that Bitcoin's price has fallen below $80,000, but price volatility is only part of the story. Tether's USDT market cap is $182.6 billion, down 0.5% from a week ago, with a trading volume of $58.8 billion, 5% below the average. Circle's USDC market cap dropped 1.2% to $71.5 billion, with trading volume down to $11.7 billion, 19% below the average. The stablecoin minting indicator is at the 2nd percentile, signaling a very negative outlook. Stablecoin supply decreased by $1.9 billion last week, with a net redemption total of $4.8 billion over the past 30 days, indicating market liquidity is flowing out rather than in.This message looks to me like a company changing its business model. SEC filings reveal that the former CEO and CFO of Nasdaq-listed House of Doge (HODO) resigned on October 22, with Curtis Hopkins from McQueen Labs stepping in as interim CEO and CFO; the company has terminated the official Dogecoin license and plans to acquire McQueen Labs' token platform.
My judgment is: this is not an immediate positive impact that can be directly recorded in the books, but rather an increase in operational uncertainty. The impact on the company's business is more worth pondering than the effect on $DOGE sentiment.
Doing business is about input and output; licensing and platforms are two different trades. The former depends on how much revenue the brand can bring, the latter depends on whether the product has customers and can sustain revenue. A planned acquisition does not equal completion, nor does it mean cash flow is already running smoothly.
Looking at risk reserves, with the original CEO and CFO leaving simultaneously and the successor coming from the acquisition target, I would be more concerned about the transaction terms, decision-making checks and balances, and integration costs. This does not mean the deal has problems, but if a large amount of resources still need to be invested later, how long the money on the books can last is the key point in my view.
I run a small company, and when I hear “transformation,” I first check my wallet. How would business friends view this kind of risk: would you first check the acquisition price and platform revenue, or the management arrangements?Brothers, the latest report from Galaxy is quite interesting. About 20.1 million bitcoins have been mined so far, of which 11.1 million, accounting for 55% of the total supply, cannot be traced to who holds them.
Many people's first reaction is that retail investors hold their private keys themselves, not on exchanges. But the report also says that not all of these can be considered active retail holdings. A large portion of these are lost private keys, deceased holders, and permanently inaccessible dead coins; some are large holders and OTC merchants whose positions have not been identified. The remaining 45% are the holdings we can clearly see, such as those held by major exchanges, ETF funds, and the U.S. government, with Satoshi Nakamoto still being the single largest holder.
This data actually indicates two things. First, despite the current ETF institutions buying enthusiastically, the retail self-custody base of Bitcoin remains large and is not completely controlled by institutions. Second, the truly liquid supply that can be dumped on the market at any time is far less than people imagine.
However, don't be blindly bullish. Among these anonymous coins, if an old whale suddenly moves coins out, it can easily bring selling pressure to the market. Recently, Bitcoin has been consolidating sideways, so the movements of this existing supply are more worth long-term attention than short-term ETF fund flows. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Q3 profits will be very good, but not earned by HBM4. HBM4 is just a sentiment and forward pricing anchor. The basic profit foundation this quarter is HBM3E long-term contracts + server DRAM price increases. HBM4 has limited short-term impact on profit improvement; the biggest risk is Samsung catching up + TSMC Base Die eating into some of the premium.I see this message as following the trend of on-chain asset expansion, which will strengthen the sentiment in the tokenized stock sector, but it cannot yet be considered confirmation of a price trend. Token Terminal data shows that tokenized stock deposits in DeFi have surpassed $300 million, up from $262 million last month and about $11.8 million a year ago.
I have three principles for analyzing trends: look for continuation, not just a single point — the monthly scale continues to grow, which concerns me more than the headline "about 25 times in a year"; look for coverage, not just total volume — deposits are distributed across 20 issuers and 10 chains, showing some coverage but not enough to conclude balanced distribution; look for capital retention, not substituting hype for demand — deposit growth is a positive signal but cannot be directly equated with active usage, nor can it be used to infer that related tokens will rise.
Trends are the best friend; I will continue to monitor whether deposits can be retained and usage can keep pace, and I am not in a hurry to take a piece of good news as a reason to enter the market. $MORPHO
Lending on Morpho isn't one big pooled market. It's built around isolated markets, with curators setting up vaults and deciding which collateral gets exposure. That's a cleaner design for risk, but it quietly shifts a lot of trust onto those curators. How closely does the average depositor check who is steering their vault?$BTC is being continuously suppressed by spot selling.
No signs of buyers stepping in yet.$AR
Arweave's pitch is simple on paper: pay once, store data permanently. The whole model leans on an endowment that has to keep covering storage costs for decades, which works while hardware keeps getting cheaper. It gets harder to defend if that trend stalls. Permanence sounds great, but who is actually paying for it today?$NEO
NEO is one of the oldest smart contract platforms still running, and that cuts both ways. Longevity brings a mature codebase and a dual-token model where holding NEO generates GAS. It also means newer chains have spent years winning the developers and users it once courted. Surviving isn't the same as staying relevant.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Brothers, SK Hynix is about to release its Q3 earnings report. Many are watching to see if HBM4 can boost profits again. Here's the key point directly: HBM4 is basically not the main driver of performance in Q3; its real push will come later. $SKHYNIX
Simply put, the new HBM4 product only had small batch deliveries in Q3, with large-scale shipments expected after Q4 and full volume ramp-up next year. So the impressive profits this quarter mainly rely on HBM3E plus ordinary DRAM price increases. The market estimates Q3 operating profit could reach 77 trillion KRW, a historical high.
So what should everyone focus on in this earnings report? The key is not how much was earned in Q3, but the management's statements. We need to see if HBM4 yields are stable, the scale of long-term orders with NVIDIA, and next year's capacity plans.
There are also risks here; rumors say NVIDIA's next-gen chip is delayed for tuning, which might cause HBM4 shipments to fall short of expectations. The storage sector has already dropped recently due to concerns about whether AI demand can sustain.
In summary: Q3 results will likely be very good, but not because of HBM4. HBM4 is the main driver of profit growth next year. The guidance in this earnings report is the key to whether storage stocks can rebound. Although the long-term logic for AI storage remains, many positives are already priced in short-term, so don't blindly chase highs. $ETH $SOL Bitcoin has been hovering around $80,000 these past two days, dipping as low as $79,500, with about $100 million liquidated. The bulls got pretty cleaned out, then the price bounced back above $80,000 and held. Institutional average cost is roughly around here; some see this as an accumulation zone, others think it's just a pullback in a downtrend. The divergence itself is more interesting than the price.
Arthur Hayes cleared about $22 to $28 million worth of altcoins over the weekend, including ETH, ENA, and UNI. The reason is straightforward: the macro and geopolitical outlook looks grim, so he’s holding cash waiting for signals. His track record is selling and then buying back higher within a week, so don’t treat him as a prophet—just consider him a data point.
The real variable this week is the Federal Reserve. The rate decision is on October 28, with PCE data in between, plus $11 billion in options expiring. These three events clustered together will likely ignite volatility. Iran occasionally makes headlines, keeping risk appetite suppressed.
Another development that’s easy to overlook: Zcash is quietly attracting funds. Grayscale’s ZCSH saw a net inflow of $41.1 million last week, the strongest week since mid-September, reversing three consecutive weeks of outflows.
My approach is simple: keep position sizes small, hold plenty of cash, and avoid guessing direction before macro events. There’s still structural buying support below $80,000, but how long it holds depends on what the Fed writes in the next chapter. Crypto market ETH smart money position core data analysis: Longs' losses intensify, shorts are about to break even!!!
ETH current price 2322, slightly down 0.61%, current funding rate 0.0046%.
Smart money total positions 1.74B USDT, total traders 2361, nominal long-short ratio 23.70%.
Longs (885 traders)
Current position 333.53M USDT, average entry price 2874.44, unrealized floating loss 79.2097M USDT, profit ratio only 33.33%, most longs are in loss, cost far above current price.
Shorts (1476 traders)
Current position 1.40B USDT, average entry price 2306.97, unrealized floating loss 9.5897M USDT, profit ratio 61.58%. Shorts hold a larger position size, current price slightly above their average entry price, also experiencing slight floating loss.
Current price 2322 is stuck in the middle range between the cost bases of longs and shorts, longs' cost is high, shorts' cost is low, the market is tugged back and forth, a double kill pattern for longs and shorts.
Market observation reference only, does not constitute any investment advice #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ARB
Arbitrum’s biggest long-term challenge is turning Ethereum scaling into sustainable economic activity. Lower transaction costs can attract users, but lasting demand depends on what those users actually do: trade, borrow, lend, or interact with applications regularly. Ecosystem growth matters most when it creates repeat usage rather than temporary incentive-driven traffic. The distinction between activity and durable demand will shape ARB’s fundamental outlook.$RENDER
Decentralized GPU infrastructure has a compelling use case: connecting computing demand with distributed hardware resources. Render’s long-term relevance depends on whether creators and other compute-intensive users continue finding value in its network. Yet demand for rendering services should not automatically be confused with demand for the token itself. Understanding how network usage translates into token utility is essential when evaluating this AI infrastructure narrative.Cutting water with a knife only makes it flow more, a thousand meters rushing nonstop
The FOMC is very likely not to raise rates this week, but the issue in the crypto world has never been "whether to raise or not," but "whether the money is still there." I believe the real focus of this meeting is the wording, not the decision itself.
CME data shows a 90% probability of no change in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December has soared to 68.9%. It's like the teacher not calling roll today doesn't mean there won't be a final exam.
$BTC is repeatedly testing between $79,500 and $80,000, with four consecutive daily declines and trading volume shrinking like my weekend wallet. It can't break above 81,000 or fall below 79,000; both bulls and bears are waiting for a single sentence.
$ETH is even worse at $2,320, with over $1 billion net outflow from ETFs in October. Ethereum is like a leaking ship; others are bailing water out, but it keeps sinking.
I find watching $ZEC's market most interesting—$1,188, funding rate still positive at +0.01%, price slowly declining, bulls still paying to hold on. My $500 short position is still open; watching these bulls feels like watching myself a few months ago.
I think this FOMC won't provide answers; the real signals are: can BTC break back above 81,000 with volume, and when will $ZEC bulls stop paying funding fees. Until then, watching the show is cheaper than betting.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
@你的爱播Misa @毓鑫YuXin @中确幸（Bch是世界上最有价值的币） @bilibili交易姬 Everyone is bullish, so why isn't the market rising?
The most dangerous market pattern: overheated sentiment, price stagnation
Recently, many have noticed an abnormal phenomenon:
The entire network is unanimously bullish, leveraged longs are piled up, borrowing to go long is continuously soaring,
but BTC remains stuck at the 80,000 level without breaking through or gaining momentum.
This is a typical divergence between sentiment and the market, and it is the stage where shakeouts most easily Energy turmoil rises again! Crypto faces increased pressure!
European natural gas prices have surged to a four-year high, breaking through €97/MWh. This signal should not be underestimated.
Behind this are two overlapping pressures:
✅ On one hand, winter is approaching, and heating demand in Europe is set to rise. Forecasts predict colder temperatures next week, prompting the market to stock up in advance;
✅ On the other hand, the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, raising concerns about disruptions to the energy supply chain, with expectations for short-term easing weakening.
Global gas supply is already tight, and buyers in Europe and Asia are competing for resources, further driving up prices.
Many may ask, what does this have to do with the crypto world?
The core issue is inflation.
Natural gas is a fundamental energy source, and its sustained price increase will raise inflationary pressures in Europe and globally.
Once inflation rebounds, it will tightly constrain the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Expectations for rate cuts will be delayed further, or even strengthen the outlook for maintaining high interest rates, which is unfavorable for risk assets like BTC.
Although current prices are still far from the peak of the 2022 energy crisis, this round of increases is already sounding an alarm for the market.
Energy price hikes → inflation rebound → central banks hesitant to ease. Once this transmission chain is established, risk assets will struggle to experience a comfortable bull market.
In the short term, two variables need close monitoring:
Whether the Middle East situation deteriorates further, and the actual winter temperatures in Europe. The market is too lazy even to set up positions. BTC is hovering around 79,800, rubbing back and forth, while ETH broke below 2,350 and can't even muster a decent rebound. As of 3:56 PM, ETH is at 2,315, falling more aggressively than BTC. Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MACD green bars are expanding—rebound? That's just handing you an entry ticket for $ETH.
The most ironic thing is that the big client data shows the market-wide long-short ratio soaring from 1.55 a week ago to 2.2. Logically, the bulls should be strong—but in 24 hours, 670 million was liquidated, with bulls losing 457 million, accounting for 68%. To translate: the long crowd is packed into the carriage, but the train is heading toward a cliff. On the other side, whale short positions hold 4.28 billion, accounting for 53.4%. OKX data is even clearer—big players' long-short ratio is 0.83 bearish, small players 0.5187 bullish. Big players are sharpening their knives, retail investors are bottom fishing $BTC.
News also adds to the pressure: US-Iran conflict risk flares up again, oil price inflation expectations are weighing down risk assets, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is this week, ETFs have had net outflows of 773 million USD over two consecutive days, institutions have long been waiting at the door for a smoke break.
I'm set. BTC at 80,500 and ETH at 2,380 are the starting lines for the bears. The first targets are 79,200/2,350; if broken, look to 78,000/2,300. Set your stop losses well, manage your positions, and leave the rest to the trend. Retail investors are still waiting for the “bull comeback,” but I’ll short first—relentlessly forward, no turning back.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🌤️ 10.26 Afternoon Setup
$SNDK
The order was already set before the open: SNDK long position, 3x isolated margin, holding 0.638 units, average entry price 1230.7.
The logic is in three points: First, 1229-1230 is the support zone where the 1-hour and 15-minute Bollinger lower bands overlap, and the price held here; second, the 15-minute KDJ has reached an extremely low level (J is only 1.3), indicating short-term oversold conditions, so a rebound is due; third, the daily 200-day moving average around 1236 is just overhead, current price 1232.5 is close to it, after a month of decline, expect a technical rebound first.
Take profit set at 1249, stop loss at 1223. The 1249-1251 range is the resistance zone where the 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger middle bands overlap, so exit once the rebound reaches this area, no greed; 1223 is below the support zone, breaking it means the support is invalid, accept the loss and exit, no holding on.
To be clear: this is a short-term rebound trade, the 4-hour trend is still down, so this counter-trend position should not be treated as a trend trade. After the US market opens tonight, decide the direction within half an hour; if the direction is wrong, cut losses. Exit before Thursday's post-market earnings report, no gambling on earnings.
Current price 1232.5, floating profit +1.14U. The order is set, see you at the open. (Must use small leverage to test)#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
Although Middle East crude oil transportation is gradually recovering, the core reason oil prices remain high is that the risk premium has not disappeared.
My judgment basis is:
1. The flow through the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded to about 70%-80% of pre-war levels, and Middle East exports are close to normal levels, but they rely on U.S. military escort and detours through pipelines, making passage fragile and reversible at any time.
2. The Houthi forces continue to attack Saudi energy facilities and east-west oil pipelines. Saudi Arabia intercepts some missiles, but actual damage is yet to be verified. Concerns over facility security directly push up the premium.
3. In terms of cost structure changes, VLCC freight and war insurance have soared to historic highs, accounting for a significant proportion of cargo value. Even if flow recovers, the landed cost remains high.
4. On the diplomatic front, Trump said the conflict may end, and Iran is willing to communicate, but without an agreement, with midterm elections and military risks coexisting, the market is unwilling to prematurely price in uncertainty.
Oil price trend analysis:
Last Friday Brent $BZ closed at $116.72, and although it has retreated somewhat this week, it remains high.
In the short term, if there are no major attacks and diplomatic easing signals are clear, the risk premium may ease and prices will be under pressure;
If facilities suffer substantial damage again or shipping is interrupted, prices are likely to surge again.
The medium-term trend depends on whether the risk truly cools down, rather than simply the recovery of transport volume.Sisters, the key thing to watch in this ETH wave is not the drop percentage, but the simultaneous appearance of “weak price, close support, and crowded bulls” 😮💨
In the past two days, ETH slid from 2368 down to around 2291. There were rebounds in between, but none managed to reverse the downtrend structure. Now it’s back around 2312, seemingly stabilizing on the surface, but I want to ask: is someone really taking over the position, or is this just a breather in the downtrend? 🤔
Looking at the data, 71.52% of accounts are long, 28.48% are short, with a long-short ratio of 2.51. Sentiment is clearly bullish, but more long accounts don’t equal strong capital, and certainly don’t guarantee price must rise. The worst is everyone waiting for a rebound while the price drags slowly upward; once disappointed sellers emerge, the market could look even worse 😣
So my view remains bearish: the trend is weakening, key support is right ahead, but bulls are getting more crowded. From now on, don’t listen to who shouts loudest, just watch which way the price breaks. Don’t rush to short before support breaks, and don’t blindly bottom-fish after it breaks—first see if the absorption is real or fake 👀
$ETH $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings The valuation dilemma of $FIL service tokens: tokens are tickets to consume services.
Users want services, not tokens. After payment, service providers mostly immediately liquidate to cover costs.
More orders = more revenue, which also means increased selling pressure.
Staking can only delay selling pressure, not solve it fundamentally.
Only by forming an ecosystem where spontaneous token hoarding for settlement and locked token demand continuously exceed unlocking.Big Brother Maji really got completely wiped out this time.
According to the recent on-chain data, his 25x Ethereum long position was completely liquidated by the system. The cumulative loss reached $35.37 million. Now, there’s only $5,357 left in his account.
What does just over 5,000 dollars mean? In today’s crypto world, it’s not even enough to push a mediocre altcoin. Looking at these numbers really gives you chills.
But the most surreal thing isn’t how much he lost, it’s his reaction after being liquidated.
Without even catching his breath, he immediately opened another 25x ETH long position, this time with 115 ETH.
What exactly is he thinking?
Does he really have no bullets left and wants to use this last $5,000+ to try a comeback against the odds?
Or is it the classic gambler’s fallacy, thinking, “After losing so many times, this time it must hit bottom and rebound”?
He’s not just fearless like a dead pig in boiling water; he’s truly blinded by rage.
Looking at him, then looking at ourselves.
We retail investors lose tens of thousands and can’t sleep at night. He loses over thirty million and doesn’t even frown, just keeps trading.
In this leverage meat grinder, whether you’re a billionaire or a retail trader with a few thousand U.S. dollars, once you get hooked, the outcome is the same—until you lose your last bullet.
Do you think his last $5,000+ can hold out until ETH’s big rebound?
Or will he wake up tomorrow morning with even that $5,000 gone?
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$ETH $BTC To pour some cold water first, the rapid growth of tokenized stock deposits does not mean this business has already been proven. According to Cryptopolitan, Token Terminal data shows that tokenized stock deposits in DeFi protocols have surpassed $300 million, up from $262 million last month and about $11.8 million a year ago, a year-over-year increase of 2451.5%. What concerns me more is that the market directly equates deposit growth with mature demand.
I have two reasons. First, the base is low, so the growth rate easily grabs attention; deposit size can indicate asset accumulation but cannot alone determine how many people are trading, borrowing, or continuously using it. Second, these deposits are spread across 20 issuers and 10 blockchains, and coverage does not equal liquidity interoperability. My guess is that if funds are dispersed and difficult to use across platforms, then even if the book size expands, it may not improve the trading experience for ordinary users.
But I don't want to nitpick just to be bearish; the increase in deposits itself is progress. If subsequent data can show that usage frequency and trading depth improve accordingly, and growth is not concentrated on just a few platforms, I will admit I underestimated it. For now, my judgment is: this is a signal of assets entering DeFi, not yet evidence of a mature business model. I will be watching closely what exactly the money is doing after it comes in.Got the script "A trader who can't trade coins isn't a good hacker" again?😐
▶︎ 2026.01: Sold at $3109
▶︎ 2026.09: Sold again at $2679
▶︎ 2026.10: Bought back at $2353
A mysterious entity with funds sourced from Tornado has cumulatively purchased 3000.5 $ETH (7.06 million USD) since 10.23, then swapped it to $BTC via the cross-chain protocol THORChain; this entity had previously sold ETH in batches at price peaks and recently bought back at lows#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Many people shout that oil prices will fall when they see Middle East crude oil exports resume, but the market tells you with real money: don't be naive.
The rebound in export figures is a fact, Saudi Arabia is desperately filling the gap, and some shipping routes even briefly exceed pre-war levels, yet Brent does not fall; instead, it repeatedly surges higher. Why? Because the market trades not "loading volume," but "delivery cost and sustainability."
Freight is the real killer. VLCC freight rates from the Middle East to Asia have peaked at nearly $37 per barrel, insurance costs have soared to 10% of the vessel's value, ship-to-ship transfers have become routine, voyage times have lengthened, and effective capacity has been severely diluted. Although oil-producing countries have shipped out oil, the cost buyers pay already includes a hefty premium. Asian refinery profits are largely eaten up by freight costs, suppressing processing willingness, which in turn affects the actual demand elasticity for crude oil.
More critically, on the refined products side: crude oil has recovered to 70%, 80%, or even 90%, but refined products are only about half. Diesel prices remain high for a long time, keeping industrial and transportation costs elevated. Inventories are thin, so even slight disturbances can be amplified.
Geopolitical premiums have not disappeared either. The Houthis continue to harass Saudi facilities and ports, oil tanker attacks occur frequently, and the market constantly worries about a post-election escalation. This expectation that "things could worsen at any time" supports prices more than actual shortages.
On the trading front, it is no longer a simple logic of shorting supply recovery. High freight, low inventories, tight refined products, and risk premiums—these four factors have raised the oil price baseline. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Middle East crude oil transportation appears to have resumed, but oil prices remain difficult to decline, and the underlying logic is much more complex than the surface numbers.
Recent data shows that Persian Gulf crude oil exports have rebounded to 90% or even higher levels compared to pre-conflict, with Saudi Arabia partially compensating for the zero Iranian exports through increased production and the East-West pipeline (Yanbu port).
The flow through the Strait of Hormuz has also significantly recovered. On the surface, supply is being restored, but Brent crude oil continues to fluctuate above $110, even once surging to the $116-117 range.
The core reason is not "whether oil is coming out," but "whether oil can be delivered to buyers at low cost and stably."
Transportation costs have exploded. Freight rates for ultra-large crude carriers from the Middle East to Asia once soared to $35-37 per barrel, surging several to more than ten times compared to pre-conflict levels, and the global average freight rate also rose from about $3 to over $20. War risk insurance fees, ship-to-ship transfers, route detours, and crew bonuses have directly raised the landed cost. Refinery profits, especially for Asian refineries, have been severely squeezed, with losses occurring during some periods.
Refined product recovery is much slower than crude oil. Crude oil export figures look good, but the transportation volume of refined products such as diesel and gasoline has only recovered to about half of pre-conflict levels. Damage to refining capacity in the Gulf region and mismatched transport capacity have caused global diesel wholesale prices to remain nearly double the pre-crisis level for a long time. The "scissors difference" between crude oil and refined products is transmitting to end energy prices. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $UNITREE A few days ago, I wanted to go long on it, firstly because you can earn funding fees after hours, and secondly because it really seemed like a trend reversal was coming. Unitree is considered the first domestic robotics stock. The main reason for the continuous decline after listing was that the IPO price was too high. It doubled on the first day, fulfilling all future expectations within a few days. My previous view was that it would drop to $50 and return to a value low, but it stopped falling at $60, so I perfectly missed this wave! No doubt, the embodied intelligence sector will definitely be the main theme in the coming years, just like chips and storage are now. Demand will eventually explode, and this sector will multiply many times in the future. Back to the market, after Unitree rose to $100, it clearly showed signs of weakening momentum, with selling pressure clearly outweighing buying. A major short-term correction may be coming, but looking at the funding rate, wow, the annualized rate is over -1000%, so wouldn't you want to earn some funding fees after hours?US Treasuries above 5% + oil at $103, Ethereum is the most vulnerable among the "high beta" assets
From a macro perspective, this is the gravitational pull all risk assets face, but ETH bears it more heavily.
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5%, the dollar is relatively strong, and oil prices are above $103. Capital prefers to stay in the dollar and US Treasuries. Ethereum is a high beta smart contract platform—when portfolio managers decide to reduce risk exposure, ETH is among the first assets to be sold.
High Treasury yields keep real yields attractive, prompting portfolio managers to cut risk exposure to high beta smart contract platforms and shift toward cash and sovereign bond instruments.
What’s more troublesome is the correlation. Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with Nasdaq, Nvidia, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is above 0.9, and Ethereum’s volatility is even greater than BTC’s. With AI trading cooling off and tech stocks being sold off, ETH has fallen harder than BTC. BTC dropped 3%, ETH dropped 6%; BTC struggles around 80,000, ETH broke below 2,300 directly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ On the earnings report day of August 4th, $PLTR surged 29.45% in one day.
Now, there is one week left until the next earnings report (early morning November 3rd, Beijing time), and the stock price is hovering around 196.75 (last Friday's close) without a clear direction.
I am personally watching just two lines: the upper side around 209, which is the new closing high in October; the lower side at 184, which held during last Friday's pullback. Most likely, the stock will consolidate between these levels before the earnings.
Interestingly, the valuation is already quite high, with the market expecting Q3 revenue around $2.16 billion. For stocks like this around earnings, price swings of up or down can happen within a day. I personally prefer not to take heavy positions before the earnings.
#EarningsSeason #USStocks #USEarnings $PLTR $NVDA
Do you think this earnings day will be +10% or -10%? Place your bets in the comments.
This is my personal opinion, not financial adviceFriends who have been following the official BNB Chain documentation should have noticed that BNB Chain is developing a high-performance L1 running parallel to BSC, using BNB for gas, staking, and governance, without issuing new tokens, equipped with a native cross-chain bridge. The testnet target is the end of 2026, and the mainnet is early 2027. CZ also directly said, "Multiple chains, one coin." In Ajian's impression, this should be a rare non-inflationary approach in the L1 wars. It channels the valuation of the new chain entirely back into $BNB instead of diluting it. No wonder BNB has been getting stronger in this market trend; the market is already pricing in this design.
Of course, this choice, while avoiding community forks, has obvious downsides: without independent incentives, the new chain's cold start will be slow. It must have sufficient cash flow and existing demand to get going, and it seems these two points can be well supported by relying on a big tree to enjoy the shade 😀