Orbit Post Sitemap
The sentiment index dropped by 3 points compared to yesterday. I want to clarify this: the sentiment scale is not the same as the price decline. When the index falls to 25, BTC's 24-hour price change is -0.07%; the two cannot be directly equated.
📌 Newcomers often mistake "extreme fear" for low risk, but I disagree. Liquidation depends on margin and price changes, not sentiment labels. If leverage is too high, even short-term fluctuations can trigger liquidation. I treat sentiment as background and calculate position risk separately.Seeing this, what comes to my mind is: single-point recognition VS sector resonance. According to SoSoValue data, on November 6 Eastern Time, the ZEC spot ETF had a net inflow of $1.7718 million, all from the Zcash ETF (ZCSH); as of the time of writing, the historical cumulative net inflow is $209 million, with a total net asset value of $772 million.
I tend to see this as a positive at the product level, not yet enough to add points to the entire privacy sector. Money has indeed come in, which carries more weight than just verbally expressing optimism; but only ZCSH recorded a net inflow, indicating that this new capital is concentrated, and the attractiveness of a single product cannot be directly equated with sector consensus.
Putting the two numbers together: $1.7718 million is the new inflow on that day, $772 million is the net asset value, and the former does not equal the increase in the latter. My understanding is that this news can answer "Is there a net subscription?" but cannot answer "Has privacy demand expanded?" If capital recognition does not correspond to usage demand, then I guess its support for the sector narrative will be discounted.
I also tend to get excited when I see "net inflow," but this time I prefer to separate product recognition from sector recognition. Which side do you choose: is the real money obtained by a single ETF enough to add points to the privacy sector, or do you need to see evidence of actual usage demand first? Everyone sees hoarding coins and often calls it bullish news. According to Ai Auntie's monitoring, a certain address has accumulated about 740,000 LINK and 3,046.68 ETH in the past five days, investing approximately 15.15 million USD.
On the other hand, I am more cautious about the crowding effect brought by such news: an increase in holdings by a single address does not represent overall demand; if onlookers follow the trend, past buying pressure could turn into current emotional fuel. This is my speculation. Do you think this hoarding is enough to prove a strengthening demand? Opposing views are welcome to debate.$BTC Bullish Top CountdownPosition Notes: Hedging can buffer but not immunize (￣▽￣)"
Brother Maji's perpetual portfolio has a total position of $61,156,700, with three cross-asset hedges, each with independent profit and loss. BTC is a 40x full-position short, holding 249.9 coins, opened at 78,104.1, with an unrealized profit of 519,300, also receiving positive funding fees, with a high liquidation price and a thick safety cushion. ETH is a 25x full-position long, holding 9,823.81 coins, opened at 2,427.28, with an unrealized loss of 1,876,200, continuously paying funding fees. HYPE is a 5x full-position short, holding 259,600 coins, with an unrealized loss of 1,286,100, but receiving large funding fees.
The strategy is clear: use the profits from the BTC short to offset the losses from the other two positions, constituting a hedging layout. Currently, the BTC short is profitable, while ETH and HYPE are still dragging down overall returns. All positions are still some distance from liquidation points, so there is no immediate risk of forced liquidation; however, if the market rallies unilaterally, this hedged portfolio will face greater pressure.
Conclusion: Hedging can buffer but does not mean immunity. When looking at profit and loss divergence, one must also consider funding fees and unilateral risk. $BTC $ETH #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动 Whale Fully Short Positions｜Why Stay Calm and Unmoved?
The core reasons are clear at a glance:
First, leverage is kept very low, uniformly using only 5x, with liquidation points extremely far from the current market price. Even if there is a strong rebound, it is difficult to hit the liquidation line directly;
Second, all three short positions are currently in floating profit, while continuously collecting high funding fees, which is equivalent to taking floating profits on one side and passively receiving subsidies on the other, continuously thickening the safety cushion;
📊 Position Details
✅ BTC｜Short, 5X Full Position
Position: -2027.95 BTC, position value 150 million U
Entry price: 77987.9, margin: 30.7636 million U
Unrealized profit: +4.3376 million U, funding fee income +3.2512 million U, liquidation price 127839.04
✅ ETH｜Short, 5X Full Position
Position: -33,600 ETH, position value 75.3911 million U
Entry price: 2375.08, margin: 15.0782 million U
Unrealized profit: +4.4751 million U, funding fee income +3.4762 million U, liquidation price 5361.55
✅ SOL｜Short, 5X Full Position
Position: -242,200 SOL, position value 21.7759 million U
Entry price: 91.4221, margin: 4.3552 million U To pour some cold water first, I don't take ZEC leading the gains as a sign of privacy sector recovery. As of 11:00 Beijing time, among Hyperliquid's open perpetual contracts with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $20 million, ZEC leads with a 2.63% increase, while XMR fell by 1.77%. I am more cautious about interpreting this ranking as a sector-wide positive.
There are two reasons: assets under the same privacy narrative are moving in opposite directions, so at least this data does not support the idea of collective capital chasing; the volume threshold filters for trading activity, not new buying demand, so the buzz cannot be directly taken as the driving force behind the price rise.
I also admit that the bulls might be right. If similar assets strengthen simultaneously and the momentum continues, I will change my view. For now, I am focusing on correlation and not assigning a big story to a single daily ranking.Key data at a glance: Nonfarm payrolls +165,000, unemployment rate down to 4.1%, average hourly earnings +0.4% month-over-month, +3.1% year-over-year, with the previous two months revised up by a total of 84,000. The average monthly increase over the past three months is about 137,000, significantly better than the market's prior expectations of a "soft landing or even weakening" in employment. Professional and business services, healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing all contributed, indicating an improvement in employment breadth.
After the data release, traders quickly adjusted pricing. According to multiple reports and CME-related tools, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December jumped from about 67%-75% before the data to 77% or even higher (at times approaching 80%-85%). The 2-year US Treasury yield rose noticeably, the 10-year yield also increased, the US dollar gained support, while gold retreated. This aligns with the current interest rate range still at 3.75%-4.00% and inflation not yet fully back to target—the stronger the employment resilience, the more reason the Fed has to keep the "precautionary" rate hike for December.
Implications for trading:
US Dollar and US Treasuries: The logic favoring short-term rate-sensitive assets to be long USD and short bonds is reinforced; watch whether the US Dollar Index holds key levels.
Risk Assets: US stocks and cryptocurrencies face short-term pressure from tightening liquidity expectations, especially high-valuation sectors are more sensitive. If rate hike expectations extend further into Q1 2027, risk appetite may continue to be suppressed.
Gold and Commodities: Rising real interest rate expectations are usually unfavorable for gold; watch for deeper pullbacks. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The most twisted part of this wave is on-chain: $XRP dropped to 1.1512 this morning, an 11-week low. I checked 100 daily candles, and it hasn't been this low since August 21.
Let's lay out the timeline first: On November 4, it surged to 1.3421 (at that time, the call was "hold above 1.28 to unlock upside"), then 1.30 and 1.20 were lost step by step, a 14.2% drop from the high. Analyst Ali Martinez said it was a false breakout — that wave was a pump-and-dump.
But on-chain data is moving in the opposite direction. He mentioned that over 13 million XRP were withdrawn from exchanges within a week, and whale holdings increased by 60 million XRP in a week; regarding ETFs, according to SoSoValue data, there was zero net inflow from Tuesday to Thursday this week. Money is exiting, and buyers are not stepping in.
Three numbers I verified myself: perpetual 24-hour volume is $291 million, 4.2 times the spot volume of $69.31 million; funding rate dropped from a long-term 0.01%/8h (longs paying) to only 0.0004% this morning; perpetual open interest fell 6.95% over 36 hours. Sellers account for 51.8% of active trades.
This isn't new short selling pressure; it's longs withdrawing themselves, plus no one stepping in. As long as the ETF doesn't move for a day, the exit is blocked.
Do you think 1.15 is the bottom for this round, or will we have to look at 1.10 if the ETF stays cold for two more weeks? According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 6, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, far exceeding the market expectation of about 65,000 (some surveys at 59,000), and significantly higher than the average monthly level of 48,000 over the past 12 months. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, and the labor force participation rate slightly rose to 61.9%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month to $38, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.1%, indicating a similarly strong wage growth.
More importantly, the revised data: August and September were revised upward by a total of 84,000 (August revised up to 186,000, September revised up to 60,000), raising the average monthly job gains over the past three months to about 137,000, clearly above the previously feared weak levels in the market. The industry distribution was also relatively balanced, with professional and business services adding 70,000 jobs (far above the industry's average monthly 15,000 over the past 12 months), healthcare adding about 42,000, transportation and warehousing about 25,000, and manufacturing also recording a positive growth of 19,000, no longer heavily reliant on a single industry.
After the data release, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December meeting quickly rose to about 77%-85% (previously mostly around 67%-75%). The current federal funds target rate range remains at 3.75%-4.00%, with the October meeting having chosen to hold steady. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $**Nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations (October added 165,000 jobs, expected about 65,000; unemployment rate 4.1%) → December rate hike bets rose from ~75% to ~80% → High-valuation storage/AI hardware first cut valuations, SNDK on 11/5 dropped -22.26% to 806.43, rebounded on 11/6 closing at 835.06, after-hours 841.4, but the intraday 816–912 spike is a typical “oversold rebound + short covering,” not a trend reversal.**
Breaking down several key points:
- **$700 is not a random shout**: SNDK fell from ~1909 in September and 2354 in June highs; two years ago (end of 2025) it was only $237. This round is an “AI+NAND supercycle” pricing commodity stocks like Nvidia. Nonfarm + rate hikes + AI regulation (ASI ban bill) + 11/19 1-for-8 split are all bubble-squeezing catalysts. Morgan Stanley’s bearish scenario is 350, independent DCF model 372, indicating that around $700 is actually a neutral-to-bullish target still within cyclical stock valuation, not an exaggerated bearish view.
- **The spike baiting logic holds**: On 11/6 pre-market rose over 10%, intraday hit 912, but closed below 900, volume 17.7M shares (turnover 12.48%). Such a long upper wick = trapped holders escaping + short-term funds chasing rebound; moving averages (5-day/10-day) are all overhead, bearish alignment intact.
- **Stock split is not a positive**: After 1-for-8 split, price becomes ~104 (based on 835), lowering retail threshold and increasing volatility, but **does not change market cap, rate hike pricing, or NAND cycle**. Many mistake the split as positive, which is exactly the environment shorts like.
- **How to wait for real signals**:
1. Daily close stabilizes above 900–920 with volume continuation (not just a wick);
2. December FOMC expectations retreat (nonfarm revisions down / inflation weakens / rate hike probability drops below 50%);
3. NAND spot prices, data center SSD orders, Micron/WDC/SK Hynix not breaking down synchronously;
4. Post-split (after 11/19) no new lows, then talk of “bubble fully squeezed.”
**Don’t bottom fish, test with small positions, set stop losses.** If it really goes near 700, first watch 803.97 (11/5 low) for a second test, then 650–700 as the “reasonable cyclical anchor”; before signals, every rebound is just reducing trapped positions. $SNDK $BTC Philadelphia Semiconductor rebounded 4.2% on Friday, while BTC was almost flat in the same period: −0.03%.
Looking at the week, the picture is stranger:
· Philadelphia Semiconductor −12% (worst week since April 2025)
· Nasdaq 100 −4.9%
· BTC −1.3%
· Gold +4.6%
Two observations:
1) BTC didn’t follow the tech stocks down, nor did it follow them up. It dropped from 81,200 to 74,888 during the week, a volatility of about 8%, but the weekly line only shows −1.3% — the weekly figure hides the process.
2) It also didn’t act as a safe haven asset. This week, the safe-haven money went to gold, not “digital gold.”
The next key event is the US October CPI on November 10 Beijing time: Nonfarm payrolls have already pushed up the bets for a December rate hike, and if CPI heats up again, the week’s low of 74,888 will be the first test.
No drop with the drop, no rise with the rise — this isn’t an independent market, it means no one is in a hurry to buy.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX market (from last Friday’s US stock close to this Friday’s close), US stock index data from TheStreet/Nasdaq #Tech stocks rebound after US stock plunge, Nasdaq weekly still down about 3.4% $LINK
This morning I saw "15.15 million spent in five days to stockpile 740,000 LINK," and my first reaction was that someone was secretly building a position. Breaking it down at the current price: 740,000 LINK is about 7.99 million, 3,046 ETH is about 6.83 million, totaling 14.82 million, the accounts add up, averaging less than 3 million per day.
But LINK moved from 10.787 to 10.795 in the past 24 hours, up 0.07%, never touching the high point of 11.04; another address withdrew 57,000 coins from Binance in 18 hours, which is only about 610,000.
Perpetual positions are 23.28 million, with a discount of 6.5 basis points, ±1% order book shows 160,000 buy and 170,000 sell, so thin you can see the bottom. The money is real, but the volume is not; I categorize it as a slow variable.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $SOL
I don't think SOL consolidating around 90 is a buildup. In 24 hours, it opened at 89.53 and reached 90, with a high of 91.6 and a low of 88.96, a fluctuation of less than three points; 1H volume dropped from 320,000 contracts at midnight to 96,000 now, and only 70,000 contracts left at 9 AM.
The order book ±1% shows 3.51 million buy orders and 3 million sell orders, with buy orders significantly thicker, but perpetual contracts still discount spot by 7.8 basis points, and the fee rate at 0.01% is exactly the benchmark, with no premium at all.
Open interest is 3.5 million contracts, 315 million, with no increase in a day. Orders are holding, but no money is coming in. For the 90 level, I look at volume, not price; if volume doesn't return to 200,000 contracts, don't rush to chase.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Looking at this data feels like watching a hotpot gathering: the dishes haven't all arrived yet, but the meal tickets on the table have already decreased by a stack. The coldest joke in the crypto world is sometimes a minus sign following “ammunition is sufficient.” 😂
DefiLlama data shows that the total circulating supply of USD stablecoins across the network is about $292.5 billion, down $1.387 billion from one day ago and down $5.767 billion from one week ago. I'm cautious: this is somewhat bearish for expectations of incremental funds, but it's not a verdict on the market yet. Stablecoins represent potential buying power within the market; when supply contracts, the imagination space for capital absorption must be discounted; however, circulating supply does not equal buy or sell orders. Based on this number alone, we can't tell where the funds have gone, nor can we directly infer a price drop.
What I care about next is whether the volume contraction will continue, rather than shouting direction based on a single week's data. Which side are you on: is this an alarm of capital retreat, or should we watch a few more periods of volatility? Keep eating hotpot, or count the meal tickets first? CORE is a small-cap altcoin without an industry-standard whale threshold (unlike BTC which is fixed at ≥1000 BTC, or ETH commonly at ≥10000 ETH). Generally, within the community, there are two commonly used thresholds for tracking CORE whales (Nansen / Lookonchain): 1. CORE Mega Whales (capable of impacting the market): ≥1,000,000 CORE 2. Large holders/Shark tier: 100,000 to 1,000,000 CORE Core characteristics (the biggest difference from BTC and ETH) 1. Extremely high concentration of holdings The top wallets include: Core DAO treasury, team/investor lockup contracts, staking contracts, and exchange cold wallets. The top 10 addresses hold a very high proportion of the circulating supply, which is the fundamental reason why CORE’s volatility is much greater than BTC/ETH. 2. No fixed official number - The ≥1,000,000 CORE tier: the real-time number of addresses is usually in the dozens (dynamic, changing with unlocking, staking, and transfers) - The ≥100,000 CORE (large holders): a few hundred addresses Many addresses are staking contracts, foundation treasury, or exchange reserves, not individual large holders. The number of independent mega whales who can freely sell and actively trade is much smaller than the number of addresses. 3. Data pain points: CORE’s on-chain statistics are not as mature as BTC or ETH. Santiment and Glassnode do not provide stable whale-specific statistics like they do for Bitcoin and Ethereum; data can only be found on Core ScanMainstream on-chain analysis (Santiment) defines addresses holding ≥1,000 BTC as BTC whales - latest statistics: 2,044 addresses ≥ 1,000 BTC, holding about 7.17 million BTC in total, accounting for nearly 36% of circulating supply. However! Addresses ≠ Genuine and independent individuals/institutions, which is the easiest pitfall: Includes cold exchange wallets, ETF custody addresses, platform reserve wallets, not all large individual users. For example, an exchange may have several such whale addresses, which actually belong to the same institution. More detailed layering (another sub-caliber) - Sharks: 1,000–5,000 BTC - Whales: 5,000–10,000 BTC (narrow sense) ≈ over 100 addresses - Humpback whales (super whales): > 10,000 BTC, fewer than 100 addresses. This includes MicroStrategy, the US government, early tycoons, and large custodians. Two key misconceptions: 1. It's impossible to know the real "number of whales": one person can control dozens of wallets; A single wallet could also be the money of many users (exchanges), and on-chain you can only count addresses, making it hard to distinguish the entities behind them. 2. Different platforms have different entry barriers: Some media outlets are a bit more lenient, calling ≥100 BTC 'big holder,' and the number of addresses increases to nearly 20,000, so they shouldn't be confused. In short, summarize by the most commonly used in the circle: 1Why does Musk mention Dogecoin less and less? It's not that he loves it less, but his identity has changed.
In 2021, a single word "Doge" from him could ignite the crypto community; at that time, his net worth was about $185 billion. By November 2026, his net worth was about $865 billion, peaking over a trillion. His wealth increased nearly fivefold, and most of it is not cash but equity in SpaceX and Tesla. A slight shake in stock prices can evaporate hundreds of billions of dollars of his net worth in a day.
He also spent at least $445 million supporting the Republican Party, but the midterm elections ended in a crushing defeat for the Republicans, with the Democrats taking control of Congress. Going forward, corporate contracts, government relations, and political activities may all be scrutinized more closely.
So now, Musk's business empire, publicly traded companies, government contracts, and political connections are all intertwined. The risks and costs of openly endorsing DOGE are completely different from back then.
Back then, a single word from him could make Dogecoin surge; now he no longer needs DOGE to prove his influence. Whether he will mention it frequently in the future depends solely on him. $DOGE #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank Q2 Earnings Preview: Heavy Bet on OpenAI, Is This an Exam or a Gamble?
On November 10 at 15:30 (Japan Time), SoftBank will announce its financial results for April to September, with several key points:
1⃣ Profit ≈ Portfolio Valuation
Q1 net profit mainly came from investment gains (about ¥1.8 trillion, mainly from Intel and ByteDance), essentially a book valuation, highly volatile and hard to predict. The market consensus expects a slight loss per share this quarter.
2⃣ Leverage Increasing
Cumulative investment in OpenAI is about $64.6 billion (around 13% equity), and a record $11 billion junk bond was issued with a 9.75% coupon. The 5-year CDS once rose to 432 basis points, the highest since 2022.
3⃣ Weak Signals from OpenAI
The fundraising target dropped from $30 billion to about $20 billion, with a valuation target lowered to $1.25 trillion; SB Energy's IPO has also been delayed. But $1.25 trillion is still higher than the previous $852 billion valuation, so whether there is still a paper gain depends on SoftBank's valuation method.
📌 My View:
• Earnings positives: impressive book gains + clear financing arrangements
• Earnings negatives: valuation downgrade, additional commitments, rising debt ratio
The stock price has fallen significantly from its high, with negatives partly priced in, but volatility may be amplified. I tend to wait for the earnings report and management's comments on financing before making a judgment.
This is my personal analysis; what do you think? Evaluation of Babylon Babylon focuses on Bitcoin staking (BTC Staking). Overseas evaluations are clearly divided into bullish supporters and cautious skeptics: ✅ Positive evaluations (institutions, crypto-native communities) 1. High recognition for innovation in the sector Many overseas developers and crypto research institutions believe it solves the pain point that Bitcoin itself cannot be staked and cannot capture staking yields, turning BTC into an interest-bearing asset; relying on Bitcoin's security, it differs from ordinary public chain staking and is considered to have a stronger security foundation. 2. Capital endorsement adds value Multiple well-known overseas VCs have invested; on Twitter (X), DC, and crypto research platforms, many analysts regard it as a leading project in the BTCFi sector and are optimistic about the narrative of RWA and BTC liquidity ecosystems. 3. Synergy with the Cosmos ecosystem The Cosmos community generally supports it, believing Babylon can bring a large amount of BTC assets to the Cosmos ecosystem, enhancing the overall asset scale and liquidity of the ecosystem. ⚠️ Negative/Cautious evaluations (researchers, conservative miners, security advocates) 1. Security and trust risks are the biggest controversy Many Bitcoin maximalists oppose it: the core of Bitcoin itself is "trustless and no coin lock-up"; Babylon's staking contracts, custody/validation layers introduce new trust assumptions and smart contract risks, and if there is a contract vulnerability, BTC could be stolen. Many veteran BTC players are unwilling to put native B 💻 I'll break this down according to code review: The input is based on Ai Auntie's monitoring, showing that a certain address has accumulated about 740,000 LINK and 3,046.68 ETH over the past five days, with a total investment of approximately $15.15 million. My judgment: this set of data is more suitable for inclusion in address observation records and not appropriate for comparing which of the two assets is more favored.
There are two logical bugs: the quantities are not in a unified measurement unit, so you can't directly compare the allocation weight; the total investment also doesn't break down the individual costs, making it impossible to reconstruct the capital allocation. Moreover, with only one address, upgrading this to a sector judgment is like announcing a launch based on a single test case, and I can't sign off on that.
If it were me, I would first supplement the invested amounts for each asset, then observe subsequent position changes. Only if there is continuous accumulation would I further study the motivation. This is my reasoning. Please help me review: to determine whether this address leans more toward LINK or ETH, would you prioritize supplementing cost data or historical holdings? Where is the flaw in my logic?Non-farm payrolls hit 165,000, directly off the charts, yet the Dow Jones softened by 237 points, with all the money flowing into chips. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.21%, AMD rose 11%, COHERENT jumped 13 points, and optical communication and chips went crazy.
The crypto circle doesn't even have the strength to catch a breath.
Nearly $300 million in liquidations across the entire network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 80%, all buried chasing the rebound.
$XRP dropped over 4 points; the positive news from the OCC license lasted only two days before fading, the old story no longer works.
$DOGE barely turned green, up less than 0.3%, no matter how much noise Musk makes, it can't drive this asset.
$BNB, on the other hand, is the toughest in the market, barely moving during this drop; having no story to tell has ironically become its advantage.
The A-shares market is similarly split: Zhongwei Company was swept by major players for 3.1 billion yuan in a week, rising nearly 19%, while Zhongji Xuchuang in optical modules was hammered for 3.4 billion yuan, falling nearly 19%.
The money hasn't disappeared; it just moved from one table to another. Wherever there's a breather, that side gets hit.$ONDO
USDY has started continuous pricing, so why can't this directly lead to a token price increase?
Ondo announced on November 3rd the launch of USDY continuous pricing, supporting intraday yield realization. This improves the product usage experience and may enhance capital turnover and integration convenience.
There still needs to be a clear connection between product asset growth and the governance token's value through explicit fee, rights, and value distribution mechanisms. Directly converting product benefits into token profit expectations risks skipping the most critical step.
If new integrations bring sustainable net subscriptions and a clear token value capture mechanism emerges, I would raise my evaluation; if the scale increase mainly comes from subsidies or the yield remains confined to the product level, token premium should be approached more cautiously.Leverage gets the blame, but the arithmetic that actually drains a futures account is quieter and far more mechanical. A 100x position on $BTC does not survive a 1% move against it; once maintenance margin of roughly 0.4%–0.5% and trading fees are counted, liquidation arrives near a 0.5% decline. At 20x, the real buffer is closer to 4.5%, not the 5% the multiple implies. The tolerance is always thinner than the headline number. Then there is turnover. Size a position so that 10x leverage on 10% The Middle East card, the political wind has been quietly shifting these past two days. The U.S. Secretary of State's first trip abroad after the midterm election loss was to discuss diplomacy, Senator Sanders publicly called on the new Congress to cut funding for the war against Iran, and even the Republican Party's blow in this election is attributed by many to the war driving up oil prices.
Many people instinctively think "war = safe haven = bullish for gold and $BTC," but in the past two years, it has often been the opposite: war pushes up oil prices, oil prices feed inflation, inflation forces the Fed to continue tightening, and in the end, gold and Bitcoin both get hit. So what really matters is not where the missiles land, but where oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields are headed.
Of course, Kyiv experienced another round of explosions last night; the de-escalation is just a trend for now, far from settled. This situation is still a tug of war, so don't rush to bet on either side. Nonfarm Payroll Night Review: The data exploded, but the market didn't? (๑•́ ₃ •̀๑)
Last night, nonfarm payroll was 16.5 million, far exceeding expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December jumped by 10%. My first reaction: BTC should go to 74000, ETH should go to 2100, there should be a sharp plunge at least, right? But the market stayed calm as if nothing happened (￣▽￣)*
BTC dropped to a low of 74800, exactly the previous correction low. This level is interesting; it might not break in the short term. So I plan to close short positions around 75000 and then lightly try a short-term long. Not stubborn, just respecting the market: if it should fall, it won't fall yet, so don't chase shorts (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Of course, the market always surprises those who don't understand. Plans are plans, stop losses are still necessary. This is just a personal review, not advice~ (｡•̀ᴗ-)✧
$BTC $ETH
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 What should be remembered most this week is not which candlestick, but the non-farm payroll report. October added over 160,000 jobs, roughly three times the expectation, unemployment rate continued to decline, and hourly wages rose — this is a solid report that slaps the "rate cut bull" narrative in the face.
Once the data was released, the market's bet on a December rate hike jumped directly from over 60% to around 80%, gold prices dropped more than thirty dollars in response, and the 10-year US Treasury yield pushed back up. Yet on the same day, the US stock market rebounded from oversold levels, showing signs of "bad news already priced in."
This kind of "rising against strong data" market behavior is historically rented time nine times out of ten. Don't fight the fundamentals, and especially don't go against the Federal Reserve. With hard data pressing down, the shelf life of this rebound won't be very long. Someone asked again in the background: $BTC dropped from eighty thousand to just over seventy-five thousand, is it the bottom to buy now? I don't look at sentiment, I look at structure.
Hold on to two data points tightly. First, the perpetual funding rate is still mildly positive, nowhere near the level of extreme short squeeze or deeply negative rates — the real bottom often comes when shorts are squeezed out and funding rates turn deeply negative, which is far from now. Second, the main liquidations these days are longs, not shorts, indicating the deleveraging meat grinder hasn't stopped yet.
A low-volume rebound means anyone rushing in can easily get stuck halfway up the mountain. Oversold doesn't mean bottomed; oversold just means it dropped a bit too fast earlier. If you want to bottom-fish, first ask yourself what you will use to withstand a second dip. Once the non-farm payrolls were released, the market's previous hopes for a rate cut were immediately dashed. Employment data significantly exceeded expectations, wages did not stabilize, and the labor market showed strong resilience. Funds quickly raised bets on a December rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields surged, and the dollar strengthened.
The reasoning is simple: with a hot job market, the Federal Reserve has no pressure to ease monetary policy hastily; instead, it has the confidence to continue controlling inflation, which will prolong the duration of high interest rates. For U.S. tech growth stocks, valuation pressure has returned, which explains the sharp drop earlier and why the subsequent rebound was merely short covering, not a trend reversal.
This macroeconomic trend directly impacts Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset; with rising interest rate expectations and higher leverage funding costs, capital is more inclined to hold risk-free assets like U.S. Treasuries, making the market prone to pressure. Recently, BTC spot ETFs have continued to see outflows, institutional funds are inherently cautious, and combined with rate hike expectations, it is difficult for the market to sustain a strong rally.
Going forward, the focus should be on CPI inflation data, as this is the ultimate basis for the Federal Reserve's decisions. Currently, it is just an expectation game, and volatility will increase. Do not chase rebounds with heavy positions; manage your exposure and wait for the macroeconomic dust to settle before taking action. The waterfall was not just a leverage event. Behind the cascade in $BTC, $ETH and $SOL sits a quieter story: large holders are leaving while retail bulls hold the line, and the policy backdrop is doing as much damage as forced liquidations. Start with flows. More than 2,000 BTC were withdrawn on a net basis. Large $ETH investors pulled back, with net outflows of 35,900 coins. $SOL saw close to 100,000 tokens leave on a net basis, leaving heavy selling pressure. These are not random rotations. Th"The market can only close positions after liquidation"—this detail is quite striking, but let me pour some cold water first: I don't think there's enough evidence to directly be bearish on the entire Solana perpetuals sector because of this. Percolator disclosed two fixes in v2.2, one of which involves liquidity providers being unable to initiate exits after the vault is paused. What concerns me more is whether the market will amplify a problem from one platform into an issue for the entire sector.
I have two reasons. When the market state after liquidation has issues, the questions should be about the trigger conditions and the scope of impact; the information provided doesn't explain these, so we shouldn't assume that all liquidations will get stuck. Secondly, problems with a platform's specific mechanism cannot be directly attributed to the underlying chain. My guess is, if the discussion boils down to "another problem on Solana," then sentiment might be overriding technical judgment. But conversely, disclosing fixes doesn't automatically prove the platform is reliable.
I also admit that the bearish view might be correct. If subsequent evidence shows that this kind of state transition problem recurs repeatedly or appears in similar mechanisms across multiple platforms, I would shift to a more cautious stance. I tend to look for risks first but don't want to use missing information to fabricate bearish arguments. Regarding this fix, are you bullish or bearish? Is your reasoning based on trusting the platform's error correction, or are you worried there are still mechanism gaps? Tell me what you most want to verify.Non-farm payrolls blew past expectations, the Dow dropped 237 points, but chip stocks surged wildly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping 4.2% and AMD rising over 11%. The money hasn't left the market; it just scrambled out of rate-sensitive sectors and dove headfirst into chips and optical communications.
The crypto world paints a completely different picture.
$BTC is barely holding around 77,000, seemingly stable, but in reality, spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $1.1 billion over the past seven days, led by BlackRock redemptions, with no new inflows returning.
$SOL is even worse off; the Lujiazui advertisement was directly halted by the central bank, and offline events were cut off before they even started. The regulatory stance is crystal clear.
Interestingly, in the A-share market, semiconductor equipment company Zhongwei was bought up by major players for 3.1 billion yuan in one week, rising nearly 19%, while in the same week, optical module company Zhongji Xuchuang was sold off for 3.4 billion yuan, dropping nearly 19%. The same market, the same week—some are lifted to the sky, others are pressed to the ground.
Money is jumping back and forth between these pools; wherever it catches a breath, that side gets hit.To be honest, this news reminds me of the time when the whole screen was shouting "demand has no limit." I used to easily mistake industry shortages for promising positions, but later I realized there are several accounting layers in between.
Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine, said in an interview with CNBC that the AI investment boom is far from over, and increased Token usage may tighten computing power again, driving up related prices. He also mentioned that U.S. states and local communities will advance investments according to their own conditions and strengthen AI safety regulations.
I think this is more like a reminder of cost pressures, not a free pass for the entire AI sector. In my understanding, if computing power prices rise, application-side profits may be squeezed first; if local conditions limit construction, new supply may not keep up in time. Hot demand does not mean everyone benefits.
Right now, I stick to two rules: don’t use industry narratives to calculate specific targets, and don’t temporarily leverage based on a single interview. Have you ever fallen into the trap of "industry good news equals good positions"? Would you be willing to share a rule to avoid chasing hype?This time, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is not targeting cryptocurrencies, but the names.
A consultation summary has been issued, proposing amendments to the Securities and Futures Ordinance and the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing Ordinance. Unauthorized entities will no longer be allowed to use terms like crypto, digital asset, token, virtual asset, and even exchange, market, trading platform have been explicitly mentioned.
In the virtual asset industry, names have never been just names. When a platform calls itself a crypto exchange, users' first reaction is that it is regulated by some authority. In reality, it might be registered in the Cayman Islands or Seychelles; there is regulation, but it has nothing to do with the Hong Kong SFC. The name borrows the legitimacy of a license, but the risk remains with the users.
Essentially, this move brings identity representation under regulation: who can claim to be regulated will be determined by licensing, not by the wording on the official website.
The draft will be submitted to the Legislative Council, and the regulations will only take effect six months after enactment. This half-year period serves as both a buffer and a filter. Changing the name is cheap, obtaining a license is expensive, so those who remain in the end are mostly the ones who can comply.
In the short term, there is almost no impact on holdings; $BTC will not fall because of this, $ETH will not rise because of this, and market depth is not under the SFC's control. But the terminology will spill over and be noticed elsewhere. In the future, when opening an unfamiliar platform, if it dares not call itself an exchange, that in itself is information.My take on $RKLB ahead of Q3 (Nov 9): revenue likely lands in the $250–265M guide, but GAAP EPS looks tight around -$0.07 to -$0.08.
The real story: Neutron (pushed to 2027) and the Iridium deal. The stock will likely move on guidance, not the print.
Not financial advice.#Pratinjau Laporan Keuangan RocketLab: Bagaimana Kemajuan Roket Neutron? In the last 4 quarters, even though Nvidia's earnings reports and EPS exceeded expectations, the stock price closed lower on the first trading day after the earnings release, forming a very typical phenomenon of "buying on expectations and selling on facts".Everyone is waiting for institutions to take over.
This year, institutions are net sellers.
The US batch of crypto-buying funds brought in $25.6 billion this year but took out $26.1 billion.
For the first time in three years, the full-year account is negative.
I originally thought it was whales running away.
But it’s not.
Clients are withdrawing money; the funds are just selling accordingly. When someone leaves, they have to sell coins, no choice at all.
Why are clients withdrawing?
The math doesn’t add up.
First, there’s interest outside.
The US 10-year Treasury yields 4.86%, money just sits and earns interest, Bitcoin earns nothing.
Second, there are losses inside.
This group’s average cost is 81,000, now at 76,000.
Third, it’s year-end.
Institutions have to report results. Cut losses to make reports look better. Take profits to give clients an explanation.
Half of the redemptions in these two months are for closing accounts, not watching the market.
If it were you, would you stay?
It’s not that anyone changed their mind, the math just doesn’t work.
So stop fixating on 75,000.
This group only watches one line: 81,000.
If it stands above that, the money will come back on its own.
If it doesn’t, no matter how good the story, no one will take over.Strong non-farm payrolls landed, but the crypto market didn't follow the negative news to crash; Bitcoin held the 75,000 support and is consolidating sideways.
The preemptive drop plus long liquidations released pressure, allowing the negative news to be priced in. However, the funding situation is not optimistic, with continuous ETF outflows. For now, this can only be defined as a consolidation recovery, not yet a reversal.
Altcoins are each following their own themes, with very low risk appetite. In this kind of market, is everyone preparing to buy the dip or continuing to wait for clearer direction?
$BTC The flatter the market, the more I want to give newcomers a lesson: holding a position also has a cost. At 10 AM Beijing time, Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market shows BTC at $76,055, down 0.07% in 24 hours, funding rate at 0.0013% per hour; the Fear & Greed Index is 25, indicating extreme fear.
📌 I think, at this moment, understanding the funding rate is more important than guessing the direction. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts; the fee is calculated based on the notional value of the position, not the margin. If the rate stays the same, my rough calculation for holding 24 hours results in a cumulative rate of 0.0312%. The higher the leverage, the larger the fee proportion relative to the margin; a sideways price movement does not mean no cost to holding a position.
Newcomers often misunderstand "low rate" as "can hold indefinitely" and treat the Fear & Greed Index as a rebound signal. One is a cost, the other is sentiment; neither can replace directional judgment. I first calculate the holding cost before discussing how long one can wait. #BerkshireQ3CashOutlook #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向
Regarding Berkshire's earnings report, what I most want to see is not "how much cash is hoarded," but rather: why hasn't this money been invested yet?
Having a lot of cash doesn't necessarily mean a bearish outlook; but if operations are still generating cash, yet buybacks and new investments are not active, it raises the question: is it because there are no good businesses, or are good businesses priced too high?
I will focus on three things: the quality of operating profits, insurance underwriting performance, and net stock purchases and buybacks. Investment income is affected by market price fluctuations and cannot be directly regarded as a change in operating capability.
For me, the greatest reference value of this earnings report is not guessing what Buffett will buy next, but observing how Berkshire balances price, returns, and the cost of waiting.
The market has quotes every day, but not every day offers an opportunity worth acting on. Cash is not without cost either; the key is whether waiting can bring better returns. I don't touch high leverage; hoarding spot assets is about not having to react to every piece of news. Seeing this AI news, I actually want to slow down: the industry's demand grows, but whether the assets held can accumulate value still involves quite a few factors in between.
Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine, told CNBC that the AI investment boom is far from over, and increased token usage might tighten computing power supply again, pushing related prices higher. He also mentioned that many U.S. states and local communities welcome AI investment but will impose their own conditions and strengthen security regulations.
My judgment is that this is more like a clue for observing long-term demand, not yet a basis for uniformly boosting related assets. Tight computing power might be an opportunity for those selling computing power but could be a cost pressure for applications that need to continuously purchase computing power. The same "price increase" can mean opposite things for different businesses.
Local conditions and security regulations cannot be treated as background noise either. If project implementation requires more coordination, then the process of turning investment into actual services might be slower—that's my speculation. I will watch whether demand can be sustained and who bears the cost; I won't take a positive outlook as immediate value realization. Anyway, I hold without moving and need to be clear about what I am holding.
Slowing down is not shameful, but leverage might make people miss the chance to see judgment realized. For friends holding long-term: does this news make you pay more attention to computing power suppliers, or re-examine the computing power costs of your held assets?$SOL
Mobile wallet integration, can it bring Solana out of the trading narrative?
On November 5, Solana officially announced that eligible U.S. Galaxy users can buy, hold, send, and receive USDC on Solana within Samsung Wallet.
The wallet entry shortens the path for users to access on-chain payments, but the number of integrations cannot be directly equated with sustained payment volume. The real value lies in whether users can repeatedly use transfers and payments without relying on trading trends.
I am paying attention to subsequent active paying users, reuse frequency, and actual settlement scale. If it’s just an increase in account openings and funds quickly flow away, short-term hype is hard to support long-term valuation; if retention and settlement grow simultaneously, the application value is more solid.If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: upon receiving an open position alert, first calculate the loss from a 1% adverse price movement, and do not rank "large orders" by leverage multiple. I just saw Core Trader 57 open a short $ZEC position with 7x leverage, nominal position about $125,100, and I want to translate that into risk first. 🤖
Assuming the position size remains unchanged, a 1% price increase results in an unrealized loss of about $1,251, excluding fees. This approach has two benefits: positions with different leverage but the same coin can be compared uniformly; it also avoids misinterpreting smaller margin as lower risk, since profit and loss changes mainly follow nominal exposure.
But this rule can only serve as an initial filter. As a quant newbie, I still need to add fields: without knowing account equity or whether there is hedging, I can't judge how aggressive this position really is. If it were you, at what "nominal position/account equity" ratio would you set a risk alert condition? I almost directly translated "ETF撤钱" as "ecological hemorrhage," but I thought better of it. I usually keep the accounts of ETF capital flow and on-chain usage separate.
According to SoSoValue data, on November 6 Eastern Time, the $SOL spot ETF had a total net outflow of $25,076,000 in one day, with BSOL net outflow of $14,442,400, accounting for more than half.
My judgment is: this is a negative signal for ETF demand, but there is not enough evidence to conclude that the ecosystem is weakening. On one hand, the outflow is concentrated in BSOL and cannot be directly taken as a simultaneous decline across all products; on the other hand, this data set lacks on-chain activity and usage demand information, so it does not explain why the funds left or where they went.
Therefore, I will downgrade my evaluation of the ETF capital flow but will not revise my judgment on the ecosystem for now. If ETFs continue to see outflows while on-chain usage strengthens, would you side with "capital leads" or "usage is fundamental"?The signal that this round of decline is not over may be more worth paying attention to than the chance of a rebound.
Currently, $BTC has once again risen above 75000, $ETH has dipped to around 2226, and $SOL is temporarily holding the $90 mark. As prices fall back, voices calling for bottom-fishing have started to increase again in the market.
But my attitude remains: don’t rush to enter the market yet.
Compared to price, I pay more attention to one indicator — the funding rate.
Usually, a truly strong oversold rebound is often accompanied by a significant shift of the funding rate into negative territory, indicating that shorts are highly crowded. Once the price reverses, it easily triggers short covering, forming a short squeeze rally.
But the current funding rate still maintains a slight positive value, showing neither obvious panic nor signs of extreme short concentration.
What does this mean?
It currently looks more like a volume-reduced pause within a downtrend, rather than the market having completed a bottom formation.
Bottom-fishing is never about who acts faster, but about who is more patient.
Until clearer reversal signals appear in funding rate, trading volume, and price structure, I’d rather continue to observe than take unnecessary risks trying to catch a so-called bottom.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#USJobsBeatExpectations Yesterday's post said "Don't bet on direction before the non-farm payrolls," and after the data landed, the direction did come out, but the movement was quite different from what most people expected. 165,000, more than double the forecast, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. According to the old script, with such data, risk assets should have directly collapsed. Instead, Nasdaq futures rose, tech stocks were snapping back, $BTC didn't crash, and the shorts started getting hit. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $1.254 billion, with longs accounting for 88%, so the bulls were indeed washed out badly. But the market after the washout is very interesting: short-term shorts are starting to face a counterattack, and the risk of continuing to chase shorts is increasing. The funding rate is still +0.01%, the bulls haven't fully given up, but no one dares to add leverage at this level. This is the most conflicted spot right now—forced selling pressure has been released, active selling pressure hasn't arrived yet, and new money hasn't come in either. On the $ZEC side, it's a different script. The market hovered around 77,000, while ZEC once surged to 1,387, the only mainstream coin moving against the trend. The NU7 upgrade landing is one layer, but the real fuel was shorts getting burned—the short positions were stacked too densely before the upgrade, and when the price pulled, forced liquidations trampled each other, squeezing the shorts and pushing the price up. But note one detail: after the upgrade succeeded, ZEC fell back from the high, and the 24-hour open interest dropped from 444,300 to 429,300, a 3.4% decrease. The price surged, but leverage is retreating. The switch from buying the expectation to selling the fact has begun, and those chasing the highs are now a bit uncomfortable. 1,330—1 When everyone is focused on Wang Yi's smoke and fire, the real killer has already landed on the open line behind the wing, unattended. Stripe lets compliant US companies send USDC and OUSD into wallets across more than 160 markets. This is not just an added payment feature; it is pushing stablecoins from a sideline pawn to a seventh-rank rook on the board. My judgment is straightforward: in the game of cross-border payments, traditional pre-financing is a heavy and slow semi-open line, while stablecoin settlement is a sacrificial move that abandons old clearing frictions in exchange for open lines and time advantages.
But a grandmaster won't overturn the board just because of a brilliant tactic. In the layout phase, count three things first: whether the transaction volume forms real forces, whether settlement costs are suppressed so opponents cannot exchange pieces, and whether commercial adoption provides cover for the rook. Visa commercializes USDC cross-border pre-financing, Mastercard expands fiat and stablecoin settlement infrastructure, both like double rooks pressing the second rank; Stripe's global payments are the central pawn breakthrough, forcing opponents to decide whether to exchange pieces or yield. If there is only noise without transaction volume, it is a lone soldier advancing—beautiful but vulnerable to encirclement; if settlement costs continue to fall and enterprise payment frequency rises, the rook has the threat of promotion.
$xHOOD and similar US stock token targets, in my eyes, are like a bishop of a different color: they can form a check against the payment narrative but do not equal the main variation. When news lands, first look at liquidity depth, bid-ask spread, and whether market-making forces are in place; a linked surge without transaction volume support is bait in a tactical combination. Position management is like midgame advancement: the vanguard must have cover, split forces to probe, and not put heavy pieces on an unopened line. The truly profitable players do not play move-by-move but calculate the endgame twenty moves ahead before placing a piece: if stablecoin payments truly enter enterprise payments, cross-border transfers, and settlements, what changes is not just a single news line but the entire board's piece value table. This game has entered the midgame; whoever still treats stablecoins as pawns will find their king suffocating in the endgame. #stripestablecoinpayouts🔍Is a 45% crisis probability really the "diagnosis" for the current U.S.? I flipped through this week's Odaily Weekly Editor's Picks and first checked the conditions: the included article states that asset prices and credit must both cross thresholds for the corporate sector's crisis probability to reach 45% over the next three years; it doesn't mean the crisis has already been triggered now.
An interesting detail here: according to the article's framework, the U.S. stock market gains have already passed the threshold, corporate leverage is rising but still moderate; the article also mentions that AI investment is shifting from operating cash flow to external financing. I pay more attention to the source of financing: moderate leverage means alarm conditions are not fully met, but turning to debt might increase debt servicing pressure, which is more worth tracking than the "post-election rebound" forecast.
Here is my speculation: if AI expansion continues to rely on debt, then when financing tightens, companies dependent on external funds may face more pressure. Don't rush to conclusions yet. Do you think changes in financing sources or leverage growth can better signal early warnings? Let's keep an eye on the follow-up and see whose speculation comes closer.To be honest, tonight's market move is indeed a bit unexpected!
Brothers, the nonfarm payroll data released tonight is 16.5, significantly higher than market expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December has also risen by 10 percentage points.
Logically, such data is not friendly to risk assets. I originally thought BTC would directly dip to 74,000, and ETH might even fall to 2,100.
Unexpectedly, the market has been so resilient; the anticipated waterfall drop did not happen!
Currently, $BTC is hovering around 74,800, which is also an important low point from the previous correction.
Judging from the current trend, this position may have some short-term support, so there’s no rush to continue bearish.
My plan is:
If BTC stabilizes around 75,000, I will consider closing my short positions and then try to set up a short-term long position.
Of course, this is just a trading plan and does not mean the market will definitely follow expectations. The key is whether it can hold around 75,000.
Brothers, do you think the market has already priced in the bad news, or is the storm yet to truly arrive?
Feel free to discuss in the comments; you can check my pinned post for detailed thoughts.
$BTC $ETH
#USJobsBeatExpectations