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"Turning positive doesn't equal a reversal (・ω・)ノ"
The mood of short-term positions has changed: BTC, ETH, and SOL have all turned green on the one-hour chart, but ZEC is still shrinking. However, if you zoom out to the daily chart, all are retreating, with ZEC shrinking the most but having the smallest liquidations — it looks more like positions are withdrawing on their own rather than being forced out by liquidations (￣▽￣).
Don't rush to cheer just because the three major short-term coins have turned positive: overall network positions are still shrinking, but volume is increasing; volume is running, positions are retreating; BTC's market share has returned above 60%, and during declines, funds cling to BTC first. This looks more like a test to stop the fall, not new money entering to herald a reversal ٩(๑•̀ω•́๑)۶.
My layering: short-term only follows the positive turn. I will consider adding a layer only when BTC stands back above 80,000; watch SOL after it closes above 100; do not enter ZEC if it hasn't turned positive on the one-hour chart, and do not chase shorts if it breaks below today's level (・∀・).
Who will turn positive next? I lean toward SOL giving the signal first; ZEC needs to fix its "shrinking position" look first. This is just a market note, not advice~
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 🚀 Stellar had strong movement today!
Today, October 29, 2026, was a big day for XLM 🔥
Positive news came one after another from the Meridian conference:
✅ MetaMask added Stellar as a virtual network
✅ Curve Finance launched on Stellar (first non-EVM chain)
✅ They recorded an incredible number: 7 million payment transactions per second in tests
✅ New integrations with Securitize, WalletConnect, and others
But the price? It dropped a bit with the general market, currently trading around $0.164 - $0.168 (a decline of about 3-5% in 24 hours).
The positives are strongly present in the fundamentals, and the price is still under pressure.$XLM "ETF Data Brings Joy: Institutions Stop Dumping, Someone Is Secretly Accumulating $ETH"
Almost 8 AM, coffee just brewed, glanced at last night's ETF data and almost laughed out loud—this isn't Wall Street institutions, it's more like a large-scale split personality scene. Don't rush to watch the market; these data sets are today's trend indicators.
$BTC: A few days ago, it was dumping over 70 million wildly, but yesterday the pattern suddenly changed, no run-off, instead a slight inflow of 160,000; the day before yesterday, it even aggressively poured in 21.96 million. This shows that at the 80,000 level, institutions are reluctant to cut losses, and big money has shifted from "withdrawing" to "lying flat and watching."
$ETH: The most dramatic. BlackRock sold over 40,000 yesterday, while Fidelity and Grayscale Mini Trust bought nearly 20,000 in response, pulling the total pot into a net inflow of 19.58 million. Smart money is highly divided, but bottom support is clearly strengthening; someone is secretly accumulating.
$SOL: Still quite poor, another 56,300 ran off yesterday, but compared to the massive losses of tens of thousands in previous days, the selling pressure has weakened considerably.
Summary: Institutions have stopped dumping and have even started defending the price on Ethereum. The market is still fluctuating, but the most panic-driven one-sided sell-off is likely over. Chasing shorts now is reckless, but don't go all-in betting on a reversal either.
Institutions are reluctant to dump anymore; do you think $BTC can lead a volume-backed rebound today?
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 According to Hyperbot monitoring, Brother Maji's perpetual contract portfolio still maintains a combination of short BTC, long ETH, and short HYPE. Based on this data, the unrealized profit from the BTC short position is insufficient to cover the unrealized losses from the other two positions, with HYPE bearing the largest loss pressure. The BTC short position uses 40X full margin, holding -243.96 BTC, valued at 19,297,300 U; entry price 84,070.0 U, unrealized profit +1,212,800 U, funding fee income +142,400 U. Margin is 482,400 U, with a listed liquidation price of 97,220.89. The ETH long position is 25X full margin, holding 7,223.81 ETH, valued at 16,338,100 U; entry price 2,500.18 U, unrealized loss -1,722,800 U, funding fee expense -71,600 U. Margin is 653,500 U, with a listed liquidation price of 1,629.39. Although the HYPE short position only uses 5X full margin, the holding reaches -252,900 HYPE, valued at 23,290,100 U; entry price 69.3555 U, unrealized loss -5,748,600 U, funding fee income +1,116,400 U. Margin is 4,658,000 U, with a listed liquidation price of 108.17. My view: The notable contrast in this portfolio is that the lowest leverage corresponds to the largest position value and unrealized loss. Looking only at the leverage multiple, it is easy to underestimate the impact of this HYPE short position on the portfolio. The funding fee income from HYPE can buffer part of the loss, but there is still a significant gap compared to the unrealized loss; Let's first look at the capital structure today. Spot buying has started to pick up, but contract funds are still continuously withdrawing. BTC spot inflow is the most obvious, ETH spot buying is insufficient, and SOL shows spot inflow but leverage outflow.
BTC spot net inflow in 4 hours is $42.46 million, contract net outflow is $218 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $231 million, contract net outflow is $229 million. Over 30 days, spot net outflow is $560 million, contract net outflow is $7.18 billion. There is short-term buying, but leverage funds have not returned yet; currently, it looks more like a recovery after deleveraging.
ETH spot net inflow in 4 hours is $25.54 million, contract net outflow is $23.28 million. Over 24 hours, spot net outflow is $14.52 million, contract net outflow is $355 million. Over 30 days, spot net outflow is $3.01 billion, contract net outflow is $8.18 billion. Among the three, ETH's capital structure is the weakest; short-term replenishment has not changed the mid-term outflow trend.
SOL spot net inflow in 4 hours is $9.57 million, contract net outflow is $15.77 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $32.31 million, contract net outflow is $105 million. Over 30 days, spot net inflow is $64.1 million, contract net outflow is $1.89 billion. Spot buying is stronger than ETH, but leverage funds are still withdrawing.
Overall, BTC and SOL have some buying, while ETH remains weak. What can be confirmed now is spot inflow, but the trend reversal cannot yet be confirmed. Before contract funds re-enter, the rebound should be seen as a recovery. I continue to be bearish.The meeting brought no surprises, $DOGE didn't even bother to get applause
The Federal Reserve's October meeting results were basically leaked in advance: maintaining 3.75%–4.00% unchanged, with a 90% probability fulfilled, word for word. DOGE did cooperate a bit, bouncing from 0.078 to 0.080, but with no applause it retreated to 0.0797. This is not a reaction, it's politeness.
Whether holding steady is good news depends on if there are any surprises. This meeting had none, and was even a "hawkish enhanced version": dissenters thought it wasn't hawkish enough, the economic description was upgraded from "solid" to "strong," and the probability of a rate hike in December is 70-80%. Translated: it's not that there won't be a hike, just not this time. A meeting with a script memorized can't deliver the surprises needed for good news.
More interesting is DOGE's calmness. After dropping nearly 90% from its peak, the chips scared off by rates have long fled, leaving those watching Bitcoin's mood, community heat, and ecosystem progress. No matter how loud the Fed's voice, it only becomes white noise in DOGE's ears—the marginal effect of macro narratives diminishes like this.
So the real information in this drama isn't what was said in Washington, but what $DOGE didn't do. Going forward, what’s worth watching is whether inflation data throws out unscripted lines, and DOGE's own on-chain activity. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Oh no! The "Universe Institute" Binance hot wallet has been hacked!
Binance hot wallet "Binance 14" (0x28C6…1d60) transferred about 167,500 ETH (approximately $379 million), 1.615 billion USDT, as well as over 60 other tokens including RLUSD, wBETH, XAUt, UNI, USD1, etc., to a new address 0x5227…CB2f8c at 04:24 Beijing time through a single transaction, with a total value of about $2.5 billion.
Then, the same initiating address (0x7C86…5CA0) triggered another transaction at 04:41, transferring 780 million USDC from "Binance: Hot Wallet 34" to the same receiving address 0x5227…CB2f8c. The two transactions combined amount to approximately $3.3 billion.
Additionally, the receiving address has transferred about 195,500 ETH to a new address 0x8532…43D4.
On-chain data shows that the funds from the initiating address 0x7C86…5CA0 originated from Tornado Cash. BWEnews, Tree News, and others report that this hot wallet is suspected to have been hacked. The same number looks completely different when placed on two moving averages: BTC is below the 20-hour moving average, which marks the boundary between trend and consolidation. At the same time, BTC is down -2.58% over 24 hours, underperforming by 0.07 percentage points—this weakness compared to the market indicates that funds haven't flowed into it this round; Key levels: · Above: 81,965.50 (+3.47%), also the 24-hour high · Below: 78,280.00 (-1.18%), also the 24-hour low Looking at both sides, which one do you trust more? Leave your judgment in the comments, and come back tomorrow to see who was right.Professor Gu predicts Bitcoin will go to zero early, Sun Yuchen's judgment proves accurate, speculating on the consequences of the collapse of the Bitcoin consensus myth
Premise: The scenario here is that the market begins to generally price in the "quantum cracking risk + Bitcoin's inability to complete a post-quantum network upgrade," causing the core consensus that has supported "digital gold, unbreakable, long-term reserve" for over a decade to collapse—not just a one-time crash, but a fundamental collapse of belief.
1. Capital level: Institutional ETF redemption wave, spot asset pricing logic completely rewritten
1. Large institutions, pension funds, and allocation funds that once regarded BTC as digital gold and a long-term inflation hedge will massively withdraw from ETFs. Continuous net outflows will no longer be short-term portfolio adjustments but strategic downsizing and liquidation. BTC will be removed from major asset allocation options and will no longer enjoy a gold-like safety premium.
2. Leveraged chain liquidations: Derivatives market long positions will be concentratedly liquidated, causing multiple rounds of cliff-like price drops; bottom-fishing funds will no longer enter, and the belief of "big drops are opportunities" from the past decade will disappear, turning rebounds into signals to reduce positions and flee.
3. Structural capital diversion: Some will completely exit the crypto track, shifting to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries; others willing to stay in crypto long-term will actively seek native post-quantum resistant underlying projects (such as ZK-STARK hash-based public chains like STRK), resulting in a major internal capital migration within the sector.
2. Inside the Bitcoin ecosystem: Community splits, governance failure, existing assets fall into a trust crisis
1. Millions of BTC with exposed public keys will be tagged with "at risk of theft anytime," leading to discounted sell-offs; cold wallets and old address assets will be treated with caution, with everyone prioritizing asset transfers. The market will continuously worry about black swan theft events erupting at any time.
2. Internal conflicts in the Bitcoin community will intensify: endless debates over BIP post-quantum upgrade proposals, soft forks, and hard forks; miners, nodes, exchanges, and whales will find it difficult to unify demands. The biggest shortcoming of decentralization is exposed—facing a life-or-death security crisis without an authoritative decision-maker, it may fall into a long-term governance deadlock, with upgrades indefinitely delayed.
3. Mining revenue shrinks, hash rate continues to decline. With a sharp drop in coin price, mining profits thin out, causing many miners to shut down and exit; the declining hash rate further weakens network security expectations, creating a negative feedback loop.
3. Chain reaction across the entire crypto sector: mainstream valuations re-evaluated, sector landscape reshaped
1. BTC anchors the entire crypto market; its consensus collapse will lead ETH and most mainstream coins using elliptic curve signatures to face trust re-evaluation. The market will begin to scrutinize each coin's cryptographic security scheme one by one, with pure hype, narratives, and ecological advantages temporarily suppressed by security risks.
2. Sector valuation criteria shift: previously based on TVL, traffic, and halving cycles; after the crisis, underlying cryptographic security, native post-quantum resistance, and the ability to flexibly iterate signature systems become the primary evaluation metrics.
3. The post-quantum ZK sector will enjoy a cognitive dividend. Projects like STRK, relying on hash assumptions, no trusted setup, flexible account abstraction upgrades, and independent L1 deployment, will be regarded by the market as foundational infrastructure candidates for the post-quantum era, attracting differentiated safe-haven buying and diverging from old mainstream coins—commonly described as "the market is mostly red, with a few safe assets showing green."
4. Meme coins, pure air coins, and coins without technical fundamentals will face harsher clearance; speculative capital's risk appetite will sharply contract, and the entire crypto speculative fever will cool down long-term.
4. Industry and regulatory level: global regulatory attitudes tighten, industry narratives reshape
1. Regulators worldwide will use this as an important basis to strengthen virtual currency risk warnings, further tighten access, trading, custody, and derivatives rules, raising compliance thresholds.
2. The classic narrative of "decentralized digital gold" that has circulated for over a decade will collapse. Blockchain technology itself will not be entirely denied, but existing tokens relying on elliptic curve cryptography without post-quantum upgrade capabilities will lose their reserve value narrative; industry narratives will shift focus to post-quantum cryptography, controllable privacy, trusted computing, on-chain AI, and other new directions.
5. Rational boundaries: this scenario has multiple constraints and is not inevitable
1. Sun Yuchen's core viewpoint is a risk warning and does not directly assert that BTC will definitely go to zero; Professor Gu's "zero" prediction is an extreme extrapolation, and their intensities differ.
2. The Bitcoin community has post-quantum upgrade proposals; if migration completes smoothly before Q-Day and exposed public key assets are protected, this collapse chain will not trigger.
3. Fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of stably running Shor's algorithm and large-scale ECDSA cracking still face huge engineering barriers, making the risk realization timeline highly uncertain.
4. Even if consensus is damaged and prices plunge deeply, it does not mean immediate zero: as long as the chain can run and some community and users continue to use it, it will retain transactional value, though it will completely lose the "digital gold" premium.#BTC Market Analysis
Price quickly dropped to the 79000 level, market panic sentiment concentratedly released. Short selling at the current position is strictly prohibited; the risk-reward ratio for short positions at low levels is extremely low, and it is very easy to short at the floor price and encounter a false breakout rebound. Operationally, pause short positions and wait for an hourly-level stabilization signal before speculating on short-term rebound long positions, with quick entry and exit without a big picture.
Trading plan:
🟢 Long: Wait for 1-hour close above 79200 before entering
🔴 Stop loss: 78100
🎯 Take profit: 82100$ETH: Locked chips, but can't lock the price?🔒📉
ETH's fundamentals are still strong, with a staking rate of 35.9% and 49.2 billion locked on-chain.🧊 But the price is stuck below the 200-day moving average, creating a contrast between strong fundamentals and weak market sentiment.
The key is the RSI: 37 is not a guess, it's a weighted calculation of price changes over a period. The downside weight is greater, indicating current selling pressure outweighs buying.📊
Looking further down, 2328 is the 200-day moving average. If the price can't break above it, weakness remains weakness; don't rush to mistake "cheap" for "strengthening."
Interestingly, the locked funds on-chain haven't moved much, but the price moved first. Those who watch the price moved first, not the staked funds.👀
In short: chips can be locked, but confidence may not be; until the moving average is reclaimed, weakness remains the main theme. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 Yesterday, 90,000 people lost money in the same place
The reason might be hard to accept: they were actually doing the same thing.
Data shows that in the past 24 hours, 91,245 accounts were liquidated, totaling $421.7 million; another statistic points in the same direction—$356 million liquidated, with long positions accounting for $207.7 million. In other words, most of the losers were those who went long.
Everyone leveraged in the same direction, so the result was mass liquidation.
The third signal is actually more alarming
In the past 30 days, BTC only dropped 3%, which looks quite stable.
But ETH fell 12.5%, SOL dropped 14.5%, and ADA declined 17.5%.
Money hasn’t left the market; it has just all retreated back into BTC. BTC’s market dominance is now around 60.1%, and this percentage is rising, indicating that people are not attacking but defending.
For the altcoin season to truly arrive, three conditions must be met simultaneously: BTC dominance must fall, ETH must strengthen relative to BTC, and altcoin ETFs must start attracting money. None of these have happened yet.
You can’t predict the market, nor control the news. Those shouting 90,000 and those shouting 57,000 are both guessing; the only difference is who guesses more accurately.
The only three things you can control are: how large your position is, how much leverage you use, and whether you keep a backup plan in hand. Tech stocks keep reporting poor earnings one after another + long positions getting liquidated + hawkish sentiment from the Fed, the crypto market collectively crashes, BNB quickly drops 10%, BTC, ETH, and SOL all experience varying degrees of sell-offs. As a patient investor, I'm actually quite happy. Just past midnight, I received too many inquiries: Can I buy Amazon? Can I buy Intel? Has Google stopped falling...? Things like that. I don't understand stocks, but I understand human nature. Buying investment targets is not about picking up trash; seeing a big drop and wanting to bottom-fish immediately is premature. First analyze why the price dropped sharply, whether the fundamentals are damaged. There is no best company, only the best price. Take Google as an example: are its fundamentals damaged? No, it’s still very profitable, but the money it makes is all being burned by AI, resulting in negative cash flow. The earnings report came out shortly before the US stock market closed. Because we have crypto stocks, we can bottom-fish when the market closes in the future. So if you think this is the bottom, those traditional brokers without crypto stocks’ panic sentiment need time to release it. Sure enough, Google continued to fall at today's open. If you want to bottom-fish, patiently wait for stabilization. Even if the future stabilized price is slightly higher than now, be a mature investor and avoid catching falling knives. For those with unlimited bullets, just ignore what I said... The same logic applies to Intel and Amazon today. Looking only at the earnings reports, I’d rather wait for Amazon to stabilize than catch more of Intel’s fall. Intel’s earnings report is too bad. I won’t buy just because it fell a lot. Capital market money flows to the strong, because in this market, the strong get stronger... #英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量 You think the worst hit by the altcoin surge are those chasing the highs? Actually, the ones who get crushed the hardest are often the shorts. 40x in 4 days—your first reaction to this kind of market is opportunity or trap? Seeing the IRYS case, I was stunned for a few seconds. Turning 1000u into 120,000u in three months, then ending at zero, meanwhile losing 30,000u shorting IRYS, even with 0.25x leverage getting liquidated. A decade-long veteran said it was the first time he’d seen this—I believe him. Because this isn’t a typical altcoin pump; it’s a thinly liquid small coin being continuously squeezed short, with price discovery completely broken. 0.25x sounds conservative, but in front of a 40x in 4 days target, any short position is like paper. What’s really worth watching here isn’t who lost how much, but how sector strength and weakness are speaking in very extreme ways. BTC and ETH’s recent volatility has been relatively restrained, funds haven’t obviously left the mainstream, but the amplitude of marginal small coins has been exaggerated. This shows risk appetite hasn’t fully warmed up but is concentrated on a few high-volatility targets for short-term speculation. The altcoin sector is also stratifying; those with narratives and chips can ignite instantly, while those without depth just get swept back and forth. The more bullish path is: as long as BTC holds key ranges and ETH doesn’t break previous lows, these small coins’ explosions will continue to attract short-term funds, and sector rotation will spill outwards from the mainstream. But the risk is clear: once this kind of market recedes, the pullback speed will be faster than the rise, and both leveraged longs and shorts will be cleaned out. What I care more about is whether volume can sustain and whether BTC dominance can rise again—that’s the real judgment.The Federal Reserve pressed the pause button this time ⏸️, but the voting members are not unanimous: two prefer a direct rate hike, indicating that the “pause” is just a rhythm adjustment, not the end of the policy. December still holds options, and the hawkish choice is not off the table 🦅.
The market focus has shifted from "whether to hike" to "whether the data is strong enough." Inflation stickiness remains, and every piece of inflation, employment, and oil price data will reprice the December probability 📊.
Gold is still suppressed by real interest rates. The 3900–3970 range is a defensive zone; holding it allows for a consolidation recovery; a decisive break below would bring back hawkish trades and open downside space. The 4120–4200 resistance above is obvious; rebounds are easy to take profits on, so avoid chasing one-sided moves 📉📈.
$BTC, as a risk asset, must pass two tests: no macro easing, and breakthroughs rely on ETF funds plus volume resonance. The 82000–84000 locked-in zone, spikes without volume are mostly pulses; if 74000–76000 is lost, the bottoming process deepens, and altcoin correction risks increase ⚠️.
Next is the data verification window: any strengthening in inflation, employment, or oil prices will raise December rate hike expectations, suppressing gold and BTC; only sustained cooling can ease concerns 🧊.
The big interest rate battle is not over; suspense remains for the next round of data. Brothers, did you profit from this wave 🍖? #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 I went through this set of data last night one by one, and my only thought was: none of it favors the bulls. Growth rate at 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2%; core inflation at 3.1%, matching expectations but up from the previous 3.0%; initial jobless claims at 194,000, employment is very stable. Europe kept the rate unchanged at 2.50%, completely as expected, no surprises at all.
All these numbers together mean one thing: the economy is hot, prices are sticky, employment is stable, so the door to easing won’t open anytime soon.
The market reaction matched this. In the hour after the data release, there were 17.87 million contracts liquidated across the network, with longs accounting for 12.89 million, over 70%, so the bulls took the hit. Looking at individual coins is even more interesting: BTC saw more shorts liquidated in that hour, 480,000 shorts versus 140,000 longs, holding above 80,000 and grinding down the short positions; ETH had the most liquidations at 730,000, with longs leading at 450,000; ZEC had about 150,000 liquidations on both sides, a tug of war; SOL only 100,000, barely anyone moved. Positions are still shrinking, with ZEC shrinking the most, no one willing to add leverage and hold firm at this level.
My view: don’t mistake any rebound from last night as a reversal. Until macro conditions loosen, any bounce is just an opportunity to reduce positions. Anyway, my positions are very light, waiting for the liquidation to cool down and positions to stop shrinking before considering adding back 😌.
Going forward, I’m watching two things: whether they leave room for December, and whether liquidations can continue to decline. If one of these improves, I’ll add back to my positions; if not, I’ll keep grinding until the data admits defeat.$SNDK
Sandisk's data center revenue surged, and an 8-for-1 stock split was announced.
The company reported quarterly results with significant growth in data center revenue, while also announcing an 8-for-1 stock split.
I view the news as somewhat positive, but the market has yet to confirm: the price remains below the 1H and 4H EMA20; I will watch the 1,291.1 support level.
OKX data: SNDK 1,309.50 USDT, 24h -4.58%, volume 1.14B USDT.
Do you think the growth in the data center business will boost market sentiment?
Not investment advice. DYOR.
#SanDiskQ1StorageGrowth In the early days, I lost some real money in revenge trading after experiencing two losses. How to be a sitting "hand" position", I learned that. Now, I keep a daily limit for losses at 2 and I just leave to preserve my capital. #AfricaTradingLessons#StrategyQ3BTCGains
Strategy’s $20.9B expected gain highlights Bitcoin’s potential, but the real test is how it manages financing, shareholder dilution, and future BTC accumulation. Sustainable growth will depend on balancing aggressive Bitcoin purchases with long-term financial stability. After the hawkish pause, shorts were buried by 77%—but at 5 a.m., the liquidation map pointed downward
FOMC held rates steady at 10 to 2, with two members advocating a hike; the probability of a December rate hike once surged to 85%. Those who chased shorts before the decision were collectively liquidated around 80,000, with 246 million in short liquidations over 24 hours versus only 140 million in long liquidations. But the real test came at 5 a.m.—PCE data just released showed core month-on-month at 0.3% as expected, GDP at 3.4% beating expectations, and oil prices falling below $110. The hawkish pricing may not be over yet.
$BTC around 80,500. The 81,700–82,800 range above is a dense short liquidation zone, but 79,300 below is the long defense line, which is closer to the current price. At 5 a.m., it’s more likely to first test 79,300 downward rather than directly forcing a short squeeze.
$ETH around 2,330. 2,300 is a key battleground; below 2,280 lies about 200 million in long liquidations, with a whale’s new liquidation prices hanging at 2,299 and 2,286. If 2,300 cannot hold, the next level will open.
$SOL around 101, the weakest. 100 is the psychological bottom line; once 99 is broken, the 4-hour long-short ratio of 3.47 in the crowded long positions will trigger a chain liquidation.
In short: FOMC has landed, and hawkish signals are still being digested. 5 a.m. is not a directional window but a pressure test of which side the liquidation level is first swept to.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC 79300 has already broken down with volume, so it has turned from "support" into "overhead resistance." Looking downward, the new support is not a single point but a series of liquidity-dense zones, each with different "fuel" characteristics and strength.
📉 First layer: Around 78,800 — 79,000 (the nearest leverage liquidation line)
This is the short-term support to face first after breaking below 79300. Based on an average opening cost of 81,689, the strong liquidation zone for 25x long positions is near 78,830, with a potential nominal liquidation value as high as $781 million. At the same time, there is a large order wall on the order book near 79,429 (about $7.6 million).
This layer is driven by leverage, not spot buying. Its support strength depends on whether longs "actively surrender" and get liquidated here; if it is quickly swept through, stop-loss orders will instead accelerate the decline.About $631 million liquidated in the past hour, with longs accounting for about 97% wiped out!
TRdesk (as of around 04:55 Beijing time): About $631.1 million liquidated in contracts in the past hour, with longs about $614.9 million and shorts about $16.3 million; BTC about $194.8 million, ETH about $155.8 million. ETH dropped about 3.2% in the past hour, spot BTC once fell below about 78,500, current about 78,827 USD (Beijing 04:55, Coinbase). Leveraged longs couldn't hold on first, don't rush to bottom fish.
$BTC $ETH BTC is currently trading around $79,900, falling back below 80,000 again. The 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day SMAs are all overhead, RSI at 42.12 is weak, Stochastic is deeply oversold but in a downtrend oversold does not indicate a reversal, MACD fast and slow lines are converging at -499.94, histogram is zeroing out, bearish momentum is slowing but the trend has not reversed. Price is running close to the lower Bollinger Band at 79,543, with almost no buffer below. There is a crack in the news: the Fed voted 10 to 2 to keep rates unchanged, with two votes for a hike, and the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 86%, so the tail risk of hawkishness has not disappeared. ETFs saw an inflow of 424 million over three days, but IBIT accounts for 94% of that, and the trading volume is only half the daily average since May, indicating funds are flowing back but turnover is not keeping up. The real danger is not whether 80,000 holds. The long position ratio across all market accounts is 65.7%, but less than half of Binance's active trades are long, funding rates remain positive, accounts are holding longs but buying pressure is not following through. Coinglass liquidation map shows that breaking below $77,125 triggers $1.37 billion in long liquidations on major CEXs; breaking above $85,010 triggers $1.33 billion in short liquidations. Price is stuck in the middle, but the lower wick is clearly thicker. $77,125 is more worth watching than 80,000.Funding rate and liquidation data: Negative funding rate + amplified long liquidations, prone to short-term lows; FOMC, PCE, and US tech stock trends determine risk appetite.
$BTC has strong resistance above at 81,500–82,300 (institutional ETF cost suppression zone), and core support below at 79,500–80,000 (short-term lifeline). If broken, it may test strong support at 77,000–79,000 (on-chain real market average around 77,900). Currently, 78,818 has fallen below the short-term lifeline, testing the demand zone below.
$ETH 2,250 is a key short-term demand zone (order block formed by the August breakout). If clearly broken, structural support below is sparse, possibly accelerating a slide to 2,160 (50% retracement) or even 2,000 (61.8% retracement); upside requires reclaiming 2,350 and 2,550 sequentially to improve the bearish structure. Currently, 2,254.63 is right at the edge of key support.
Spot positions should avoid panic selling at support levels and can wait to accumulate BTC in batches within the 77,000–79,000 range (stop loss reference below 75,500); if ETH stabilizes effectively at 2,250, light long positions can be tried, otherwise wait near 2,000 before reconsidering.
For contracts, a rebound blocked at BTC 81,500–82,300 or ETH 2,350–2,500 can be lightly shorted with strict stop loss. Overall position size should be controlled within 30%, awaiting directional confirmation after FOMC and PCE data release. ETH is currently trading at about $2,246, down 4.49% in 24 hours, having fallen below the previously contested $2,250 demand zone. The technical outlook is comprehensively weakening: the lower boundary of the daily ascending channel has been confirmed broken, all short-term moving averages are pressing overhead, with the 7-day SMA at 2,346, 20-day SMA at 2,412, and 50-day SMA at 2,532, forming a textbook bearish alignment. The RSI at 34.71 is approaching oversold territory, Stochastic %K at 12.21 and %D at 9.76 are deeply oversold, but oversold conditions can persist in a downtrend and do not signal a reversal. The lower Bollinger Band at 2,289 has been breached, %B is only 0.0928, with price running along the lower band. $2,160 is the location of the 200-day SMA and is the next meaningful reference on the daily chart. The news is even worse than the technicals. On-chain data shows whales concentrated selling about 160,000 ETH near $2,400, worth over $348 million, while exchange balances increased by 100,000 ETH, about $240 million of sellable supply flooding the market. The US spot Ethereum ETF still saw a net outflow of about 9,081 ETH, approximately $21.11 million, in a single day, with net outflows over the past 7 days. The activation of the Hoodi testnet upgrade by Glamsterdam was delayed due to EIP-8037 compatibility issues, with no new timetable announced, leaving short-term catalysts absent. After losing $2,250, the 200-day SMA at $2,160 is currently the most honest reading.$AXIS
I never touch these new tokens, and after seeing today, I'm even more certain.
Axis, which provides training data for robots, launched on October 21, peaked at 0.37 on the 24th, and today hit a low of 0.135. From the peak, it has dropped more than 60%, nearly halving in 7 days. On-chain detective ZachXBT said: insiders took over 76 million tokens from the team's multisig wallet, worth over $12 million. Just one address dumped 42 million tokens within 24 hours, exchanging them for 5.04 million USDC.
The project team denies this, saying neither the team nor investors sold any shares; it was the OTC counterparty violating the lock-up agreement who dumped the tokens, and cooperation has been terminated.
Both sides have made their statements; who I believe is not important. The circulating supply is only 165 million tokens, total supply 1 billion, market cap $23 million, with 835 million still locked. Today it hit a new all-time low since listing. With this token structure, I treat it all as hazardous.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 🖊 The trigger point is not in crypto, but in the interest rate path. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but two officials voted against and advocated a 25 basis point hike. Market bets on a rate hike in December once surged to 85%. Selling pressure on Asian tech stocks' earnings reports also intensified, BTC retreated from above $81,700, hitting a low of $79,607. The conclusion is straightforward: "No rate hike" is not priced as easing, but as "tightening is not over yet." 📊 24-hour data snapshot BTC is currently around $78,952, down 3.42% in 24 hours, with a market cap of about $1.61 trillion and a market dominance of 60%. ETH is at $2,256, down 4.71%. SOL is at $96.11, down 6.39%, breaking below the $100 mark. On the derivatives side, the total 24-hour liquidation across the network is about $367 million, with longs accounting for 57.6% (about $211 million), BTC liquidation at $96.45 million, ETH at $80.44 million. Nearly 80,000 people were liquidated. This is not a short-seller's celebration, but passive deleveraging by longs under revised interest rate expectations. 🌍 The structure is more worrisome than the decline. BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $176 million in one day, with IBIT alone accounting for $151 million, but the cumulative net outflow in October is still about $202 million; hedge funds have cut ETF exposure by about 68,000 BTC. ETH EAll are in the red, but the excitement varies
$BTC has returned to 80350, reclaiming the 80,000 whole number level, but the real high with actual transactions at 80497 above has not been taken yet. The price improvement is true, and the direction is also uncertain—80,000 itself is not to blame.
$BICO rose 1.5% to 0.01523, but the 24-hour trading volume is only 157,000 USDT. The increase gives a sense of direction but does not provide a reference for a larger single trade. Price advancement and execution conditions need to be viewed separately.
$RE rose 2.8% to 0.3721, with the contract funding rate dropping from 0.0050% to 0.0024%, lowering the holding cost for long positions. The rebound did not simultaneously raise this expense, which is quite comfortable; however, the funding rate only concerns cost, not direction—two different matters.
$XRP rose 1.9% to 1.3185, previously paused at 1.3086, now moving to a higher area, leaving trading traces above 1.31 again. This upward move has a comparable price process, so the evaluation can be adjusted more positively from "narrow-range tug-of-war," based on the distance covered, without supplementing with news explanations.
All are in the red: BICO lacks a trading reference, RE saves on funding rates, XRP has a price process—the excitement differs, and what you look at should differ too. $SOL
Pay attention to one detail. SOL has dropped below 100 this time, the perpetual contract funding rate is basically close to zero, and the open interest is $307 million, slightly smaller than a few hours ago.
This is not a liquidation cascade pitfall; someone is genuinely selling spot. The leveraged positions haven't even had time to build up.
Actual test on OKX shows just over 96, 24-hour low at 94.83, Binance at the same level 94.81, both sides match. In the morning article, I said Solana minted nearly one billion USDC on-chain in four days, yet the price stayed flat; now the answer is out, the money didn't flow into SOL.
The round number 100, once broken, is broken. Who is buying below, and whether they can hold it, I'll watch first.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 At 4 a.m., after the U.S. stock market closed, Amazon and Intel released their earnings reports.
Global risk markets began to come under pressure, with a unified sharp decline.
So far, no major risks caused by so-called war factors from Trump or Israel have been seen.
Since the earnings reports affected BTC and ETH, they also followed the decline.
This decline won't last too long.
Currently, BTC dropped from 81953 to a low of 78210.
ETH fell from 2378 to a low of 2230.
If you want to catch the rebound, just wait for the 15-minute chart to stabilize before jumping in.
Waiting. Currently, the 15-minute chart shows continuous volume increase. Once the U.S. stock market catches a breather, BTC and ETH will naturally rebound early. After all, this is a false alarm. The three wildest coins today: one surged 16%, one surged 34%, and one plunged 11%
$APR 0.05678, Monad testnet nodes were pre-funded and surged 🚀
aPriori (renamed Capricorn) is doing liquid staking + MEV on the Monad public chain, soaring 16.09% today. Raised $10 million, invested by Pantera/ConsenSys/OKX Ventures. Nodes launched on the Monad testnet, funds were pre-positioned.
$BEAT 0.10979, Audiora surged 34% today 🎵
BEAT jumped from 0.079 directly to 0.109, with a volume of 66.27 million. Audiora focuses on audio copyright NFTs, sharing playback revenue with creators on-chain. This coin has a small market cap, so it spikes quickly but also drops fast. It was down 12% yesterday, then up 34% today, so don’t chase the highs.
$GOOGL 286.7, Google token plunged 11.75% today 📉
GOOGL fell from 324 straight down to 286.7, with a volume of 225 million. This is Alphabet’s tokenized asset, linked to Google’s US stock price. After Google’s Q3 earnings missed expectations, the token crashed accordingly. Buying GOOGL on OKX is like indirectly buying US stocks, but liquidity is worse than regular stocks.
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. How many people died tonight?
Whether it's $BTC or $ETH, a very long downward red candlestick (commonly called a "pin") appeared on the far right side of the chart.
• ETH/USDT (Spot): Latest price 2,259.70, 24-hour decline -3.95%. From the chart, the price plummeted instantly from around 2,350 to a low of 2,240.04, then quickly rebounded to 2,259.
• BTC/USDT (Perpetual Contract): Latest price 79,033.5, 24-hour decline -2.51%. The price crashed instantly from above 81,000 to a low of 78,750.0, then rebounded to around 79,000.
Core conclusion: The market experienced concentrated sell-offs around 04:44 AM. Such a long lower shadow and sharp drop on the 15-minute level usually accompany massive liquidations of leveraged long positions (chain liquidations).
2. Technical Indicator Analysis (mainly 15-minute level)
1. Moving Average System (EMA):
• EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 on the chart are all in a bearish alignment and are diverging downward.
• ETH: EMA5 (2303) > EMA10 (2317) > EMA20 (2327). The current price (2259) is far below all short-term moving averages. This indicates an extremely weak short-term trend, with the upper moving averages having turned from support into strong resistance. Macro data is not on this side, and the chip structure is not on that side either. 🤔 Let's first look at the macro situation. In the early hours of October 30, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, but two members voted against, advocating for a 25bp rate hike. Data released at the same time was not friendly: September core PCE year-on-year was 3.1%, higher than August's 3.0%; Q3 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary value was 3.4%, exceeding the expected 3.2%. The economy is not weak, inflation is not falling, and the probability of a rate hike in December has been repriced. Risk assets fell first as a warning—BTC once dropped below $80,000, with about $367 million in crypto liquidations across the network in 24 hours, longs accounting for 57.6%. Now let's look at SOL's own ledger. The price has slid from 103.17 to 96.67, with a 24-hour low of 96.21, breaking below all short-term moving averages on the daily chart. This is not an isolated drop. The US spot SOL ETF saw net outflows of about $24.82 million over the past two trading days, including a single-day outflow of $19.16 million on October 27, the largest single-day outflow since December 2025. On-chain activity is also restless: a certain whale sold 1.02 million SOL in the past five days, worth about $104 million. ETF redemptions and whale sell-offs are applying pressure on two supply lines simultaneously. The derivatives structure deserves closer attention. In SOL's 24-hour liquidations, longs account for 62%, shorts only $1.51 million; 76% of all market accounts are long, but only 48.1% of active trades are long—retail investors are holding on, while active selling dominates. This means the counter$BCH Folks, something's off with the BCH order book. At the 274.41 level, it's as quiet outside as a graveyard, but inside the order book, it's dog-eat-dog chaos. Damn it! This is clearly capital smashing hard; the dog market maker has raised the scythe overhead, just about to chop down 📉 Technically, the volume-price divergence is outrageous, heavy selling pressure above, a classic pump-and-dump shakeout. Take my advice, don't catch the falling knife near 274, you can try light short positions around this level, set stop loss above 278, and keep your position under 20%. Don't get emotional, this market is just a test of patience 🧘♂️ If you want to follow, check the market card below and watch the order book before making a move, I'm not forcing you. 👇👇👇
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk, please control your position size yourself, profits and losses are your own responsibility.#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 The positive side is also the negative side$BTC short-term longs should first watch if 79,000 can hold 🧐; for shorts, wait for a test up to 82,000 and if it can't hold, then consider a pullback—don't rush to chase. The interest rate decision is slightly bearish, with two officials voting against and leaning towards a rate hike; a pump then dump is not surprising 📉. If you have no position, be patient and enter when the level is right.
$ETH is clearly weaker; the previous low before 2280 hasn't broken yet, but it will most likely be tested ⚠️. The 2420 shorting opportunity hasn't appeared. No rate hike was originally bullish, but after the bullish expectation is priced in, it's normal to see a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" correction 🔄.
$BTW is still held, with a bearish bias, but the timing of the drop is testing patience 😅. Not daring to add at this level, just holding and observing; it looks a bit like sideways consolidation instead of a drop, so adding after a breakout is also fine. If you want to use it to bet on a big move, it depends on whether the market gives the chance 🚀.$BTC 2:00 AM is just the beginning; 2:30 AM is when the $BTC candlestick really forms
2:00 AM is the decision, 2:30 AM is the market reaction
The probability of a rate hike is about 7%, so no change is almost certain. The real pricing comes from Powell's words: he needs to explain "why pause now" while keeping the option of "possible hike in December." The market has priced in over 70% chance of a December hike. #DailyOrbit BTC is reported at about $80,131, with two major whales holding a combined short position of approximately 331 BTC, valued at about $26.523 million, with liquidation prices concentrated between $80,861 and $80,867, only about 0.91%–0.92% away from the current price.
Among them, the short position holder with $16.026 million (Oxa4de) has an average entry price of $79,913.7, with an unrealized loss of about $43,400, and a liquidation price of $80,861; another short position holder with $10.497 million (0x92a7) has an average entry price of $79,879.9, with an unrealized loss of about $32,900, and a liquidation price of $80,866. The top whale has set a full-position market stop-loss trigger order at $80,865, which is about $3.71 higher than the liquidation price, and is expected to fully stop-loss after the first round of liquidation. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Positive news landed, but the market looks like it hasn't woken up 😴
Holding steady at 4%, which should have fueled some sentiment fire 🔥
But $BTC 80700, $ETH 2342, not even the midnight surge took off, which really says something 🤔
If this is truly the bottom, with such heavy positive news dropping, why is no one rushing in?
It's not that they don't want to rise, there's just no new money to take over 💸
The rebound a couple of days ago looked more like shorts covering + short-term players betting on "no rate hike" holding the scene. Now the answer is clear, the bet was right, but no one is stepping in to buy — a typical case of all the good news being priced in 📉
My view remains unchanged: this is not stabilization, it's a downward continuation ⚠️
$BTC has a bunch of shorts pressing down at 81700 and 84000 above 80k, with longs lined up at 78300 and 77300 below; if 78000 breaks, the next stop is 73000 📉
$ETH at 2342, with resistance at 2372 and 2400, if it loses 2240, 2000 is not far off.
So, don't mistake every rebound for a bottom-fishing signal 🙅
For trapped positions, a rebound is an escape window, not a boarding door 🚪
The market can deceive, but volume and new money won't 😎ETHEREUM OG was dormant for a year and just sold 7,594 $ETH worth 17.79 million USD
The Ethereum OG wallet, reportedly associated with the Ethereum Foundation, sold 7,594 ETH (17.79 million USD) after being inactive for a year.
Notably, the history of this wallet.
I bought 200,000 ETH during the ICO at a price of 0.31 USD/ETH, with a total cost of about 61,000 USD.
Additionally, I received an extra 42,654 ETH from the Ethereum Foundation when the price of Ethereum was 13.82 USD.#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? $Pre-market Notes: Wallet Inflows, Positions Still Cautious
Watching exchange wallets this morning, tonight brings growth and inflation data, followed by the ECB decision. Core PCE is expected around 3.1%, European rate expectations remain steady at 2.50%, the cards aren't fully revealed yet, setting the conditions first.
Wallets show a turning point: Exchange $BTC balance increased by 3,143 coins, back to 2.495 million coins, marking the first inflow after continuous outflows, indicating funds are no longer rushing out. However, positions haven't reversed; 24-hour holdings are still shrinking, with $ZEC down 2.48% the most, $SOL down 1.75%, BTC down 0.98%, ETH down 0.50%, the overall trend unchanged.
One-hour level divergence: SOL up 0.59% turning positive alone, BTC down 0.12%, ETH basically unchanged, ZEC down 0.40%, only SOL turned positive short-term. Funding costs also diverge, ZEC at only 0.0006%, the three major mainstreams between 0.0063% and 0.0089%, ZEC bulls are not in a hurry; BTC market dominance still pinned at 60.09%, funds haven't dispersed.
Wallets turning, SOL turning positive short-term, but long-term positions are still shrinking. I don't see this as a reversal, just a slowdown in selling.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $ETH 【ETH has dropped nearly half; the real danger is not the continued decline, but that no one knows what to believe?】
In the next 7 days, I lean towards consolidation, slightly weak. Down 1.9% in 24 hours, down 2.9% in 7 days, FNG at 51, indicating bulls and bears are still tugging. ETH has retraced 53.2% from its ATH; long-term funds will pay attention, but the value zone does not mean immediate catalysts.
There are three more reasons: BTC dominance is 59.5%, funds still prioritize certainty; trading volume is active but no clear trend, more like rotation; after the Swiss spot Bitcoin ETF was approved, FINMA mentioned that ETH and Solana ETFs might follow, and USDT is also preparing to bring privacy and fast payments to Bitcoin, competing respectively for ETF entry and stablecoin business.
In practice, brokers, trading venues, payment companies, and node operators will all be affected: can ETFs bring new buying power? Will USDT on Bitcoin squeeze ETH and TRON? India's eMudhra certificate error affected some Teku and Besu environments; although default mainnet nodes were not exposed, it also shows that security defaults are a commercial cost.
If ETH breaks out with volume and holds, or funds clearly flow from BTC to ETH, I will admit my judgment was wrong; if it continues to underperform or security incidents spread, then the weak bias stands.
Do you think this wave is funds temporarily bypassing ETH, or is the application value finally being realized? Review next week.
What is your judgment? ⬆️ Bullish / ⬇️ Bearish / ➡️ Sideways Earnings Report: Exceeding Expectations, and Growth Quality Worth Attention
SanDisk's fiscal year 2027 Q1 earnings report shows:
Key Metrics | This Quarter's Performance
Revenue | $11.031 billion
Sequential Revenue Growth | +23%
GAAP Net Profit | $8.101 billion
Non-GAAP EPS | $49.51
Non-GAAP EPS Sequential Growth | +26%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 85.1%
Data Center Revenue | $4.802 billion
Data Center Sequential Growth | +61%
The market consensus before the report was approximately $10.7 billion in revenue and $46.4 in non-GAAP EPS.
Based on this expectation, actual revenue exceeded estimates by about 3.1%, and EPS beat estimates by about 6.7%.
This indicates that SanDisk not only met its previously stated targets but also achieved further outperformance.
However, it is important to note that the market had already anticipated very strong performance from SanDisk. Therefore, what truly determines stock price performance is not just "exceeding expectations," but also the magnitude of the beat and whether growth can be sustained going forward.
2. The Most Noteworthy Aspect is the Data Center Business
This quarter, SanDisk's data center business revenue reached $4.802 billion, up from $2.977 billion last quarter.
A single-quarter growth of 61%.
SanDisk's overall sequential revenue increased by $2.066 billion, of which the data center business contributed $1.825 billion in incremental revenue.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ #英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量
The variable with Terafab is that Intel has shifted from being the "sole named foundry partner" to "one pole in a multi-vendor competitive cooperation," which is both a touchstone for 14A commercialization and exposes the foundry transformation's dependence on external customers.
In April 2026, Intel joined Terafab, led by Musk, becoming the sole named foundry partner, planning to support Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI's AI chip demands with 14A. For Intel's foundry business, which lacks external benchmark customers, this is a critical window for 14A validation—the company had warned that without major external customers, it might abandon 14A.
However, in October, Musk confirmed that TSMC is also in talks, so Intel is no longer the only option. TSMC may only lease part of the capacity rather than replace Intel in operating the entire campus; Intel CEO Chen Liwu confirmed the cooperation continues. A more realistic path is multi-vendor division of labor: Intel handles 14A logic chips, TSMC supplements with advanced processes, and Intel's advanced packaging undertakes system integration.
The real variable is not "who gets replaced," but whether Terafab can become the first verifiable case for 14A to move from risky trial production to external mass production. The 14A risky trial production target is the second half of 2027, with external customer design adoption expected between the second half of 2026 and mid-2027. If Terafab advances, Intel gains not only orders but also a mass production record that other customers can reference. After the PCE release, the market first traded the "expectation gap"
Core PCE rose to 3.1%, and concerns about rate hikes did not suppress the market; instead, a round of recovery occurred. BTC hovered around 80,000 for a week before returning to 81,511, up 1.19% intraday, indicating that the negative news has been priced in early and funds are starting to test the upside.
ETH followed to 2,358, up 1.05%. The number of staked validators and the size of the staking pool continue to expand. When risk appetite warms, Ethereum's follow-through elasticity is more evident. SOL closed at 102.25, up 1.18%, temporarily holding above the 100 mark; after the new consensus went live, network stability improved, active addresses are recovering, and on-chain sentiment shows signs of repair.
The most independent is OKB: it bounced from 110 all the way to 113.69, up 3% in a single day, rising for three consecutive days. The news of OKX cooperating with ICE and Trade.xyz to launch perpetual contracts is still fermenting. The platform token is moving at its own pace and has not fully followed BTC.
RE reported 0.375, trading sideways today. Automatic payouts by the insurance protocol and the expansion of the payout fund pool are medium-term highlights, but with only 530,000 in volume, the market is too thin; to break out into an independent trend, large-scale chain-linked events need to occur.
Overall, the keyword after the PCE is not "rate hike" but "digestion." This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 BTC is waiting for the earnings report, ENA is waiting for dividends, HYPE is being snatched
$BTC 81,511, Strategy earnings preview: BTC book profits rebound sharply 📊
Strategy is about to release its earnings report, and the market is watching its BTC holdings' book profits. At the 81511 level, institutions are waiting for the earnings data, retail investors are waiting for direction. After grinding around 80000 for a week, it finally bounced today. The PCE data was just a catalyst; the real catalyst is tomorrow's earnings report.
$ENA 0.21129, interest-bearing coin rose 7.69% today 🌾
PCE rose to 3.1%, raising expectations for rate hikes, but it actually rose 7.69% today. With high interest rates expected to last longer, the yield on interest-bearing stablecoins becomes more attractive.
$ASTER 0.7176, multi-chain contract DEX rose 1.93% today 🛰️
Aster has perpetual contracts deployed on several chains, rising 1.93% today. The trading volume is only 690,000, the market is thin, bouncing along with the broader market. Funds are all waiting for the BTC earnings report; no one is paying attention to this new chain without catalysts.
$HYPE 93.548, surged 17.15% today 🚀
HYPE directly jumped to 93.5 today, with a trading volume of 655 million, several times larger than the past few days. Hyperliquid is an on-chain derivatives exchange; holding HYPE earns fee dividends. This big bullish candle today still needs to be observed.
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Sharply
Strategy's Q3 book gains rebounded impressively, but the "quality" depends on timing. Preliminary data shows Q3 unrealized digital asset gains of about $21 billion, net profit of $19.53 billion, diluted EPS of $44.75, compared to a Q2 loss per share of $24.45, marking the first return to profitability in four quarters. Bitcoin rose 43% in Q3, and accounting standards measured at fair value almost fully reflected this increase in the income statement.
However, the rebound essentially reflects a revaluation of holdings' market value, not operational improvement. Total revenue for the period was only $125.4 million, down 3% year-over-year, which is not comparable to the $20 billion-level profit. More critically, the timing: Bitcoin was about $83,000 at the end of Q3, with unrealized gains of $21 billion; by the eve of the earnings report, unrealized gains narrowed to about $4.06 billion, with only a 6.3% buffer, and an average cost of $75,446. The earnings report is a snapshot at the end of Q3, and the balance sheet faces a now-thinner buffer.
What is more noteworthy is the shift in capital allocation: the company has paused increasing Bitcoin holdings and instead spent about $2 billion to repurchase STRC preferred shares, shifting focus from "hoarding coins" to balance sheet management. The book gains rebound is real but more like a confirmation of market value revaluation rather than the start of the next growth phase.#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ $AMZN fell more than seven points after hours, yet AWS still exceeded expectations.
The cloud business delivered $46 billion, slightly more than the market anticipated.
However, advertising missed the mark by nearly $1.2 billion, and earnings per share also fell short.
Capital expenditures have not been reduced at all.
After observing these days, just shouting about strong AI demand no longer works.
Google Cloud was halved and hit hard, Amazon Cloud exceeded expectations but still couldn't stop the decline.
What concerns me more is advertising, which is its most profitable segment; one leg is spending heavily on building data centers, while the other leg that makes money is slowing down, so it's normal that funds are not buying in.
I won't buy after-hours with such a drop; I'll wait to listen to the 5 PM call to hear how Jassy explains next year's spending.
If the price is still low at tomorrow's open, I won't rush to pick it up.
AWS exceeded expectations but still dropped like this—do you think it's an overreaction or a drop that was due?
$AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT#OKX, ICE, and Trade.xyz join forces to promote perpetual contracts entering the compliant US market
The core of the collaboration is not simply a “positive landing,” but a “compliant integration” of traditional financial infrastructure with on-chain perpetual liquidity
ICE (parent company of NYSE) acts as the exclusive operator and clearing party, Trade.xyz provides on-chain technology based on Hyperliquid, and OKX is responsible for retail distribution through a joint venture FCM. As a result, perpetual contracts transition from offshore gray products to being incorporated into the US regulated futures commission merchant and clearing system
The structural impact on the industry lies in the reshaping of the liquidity landscape. By 2025, the global trading volume of perpetual contracts has exceeded $90 trillion, accounting for three-quarters of crypto derivatives trading volume, but has long remained outside US regulation. With the compliance channel opened, the first to be attracted are hedge funds, high-net-worth capital, and market makers constrained by compliance—this liquidity previously had to detour offshore or bear on-chain smart contract risks. On-chain Perp DEXs will face direct competition for the first time from local, regulated, 24/7 operators
The cost of the compliant market is product standardization and admission restrictions; long-tail assets, permissionless leverage innovation, and non-KYC scenarios remain the preserve of on-chain perpetuals. A more profound change is the shift in rule-making authority: as ICE begins to define clearing standards and leverage boundaries for perpetual contracts, the product logic formed by offshore platforms over the past decade will be forced to recalibrate within a compliance framework led by traditional exchange groups