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$ASML
AI investment is being reassessed, how should we view ASML's orders?
This week, European semiconductors were also affected by concerns over AI investment, with ASML pulling back on November 5. The sensitive point for equipment stocks is whether customers can fulfill their multi-year capital expenditures as originally planned.
Demand for advanced processes and short-term project progress are two different matters. Customers may agree with the technology roadmap but delay factory construction due to power, permits, or financing.
I focus on new orders, cancellations or deferrals, and the pace of delivery turning into revenue. If orders remain stable and deliveries continue as planned, short-term emotional shocks are easier to absorb; if project delays spread, one cannot ignore mid-term cash flow risks based solely on long-term technological barriers.The market is rising, but the capital flow hasn't kept up: ETFs are still experiencing net outflows, and incremental spot buying hasn't entered. In this kind of rebound structure, my approach is simple—short-term trades are possible, reduce position size by one level, and set the take-profit point a bit closer. Wait until the orders above 2450 are truly filled and ETF flows turn positive, then it's not too late to increase the position again. The market rewards those who are patient
$ETH Trump has also fled.
His Trump Media company has started liquidating Bitcoin, selling as much as 99.99% of its holdings!
The company sold 4,259 $BTC, equivalent to $343.67 million.
The timing of this large-scale sell-off is very delicate: the Democratic party is preparing to investigate the crypto industry, as well as the financial connections between the Trump family and crypto assets.
This batch of Bitcoin holdings once peaked at a market value of $1.4 billion in 2025, and now has been almost entirely cashed out!!!In a bear market, where is the money hiding?
Not all is lying flat; assets with clear accounts are being selectively bought:
UNI (weekly increase once reached 18%, DEX eating into CEX + protocol fee burn), AAVE (enterprise-level fixed-rate product repricing) become DeFi blue-chip safe havens;
ZEC stands against the trend at around ~$1,361, relying on NU7 upgrade and privacy narrative, but most of the positive news is priced in, beware of a "sell the fact" pullback;
XMR weekly rise about 5.4%; exchange ETH reserves drop to a ten-year low, a giant whale increased holdings by 8,775 ETH after five months (total 23,000 ETH);
Enterprise buying hasn't stopped: Strive bought 8,136 BTC in Q3, bought another 15,124 BTC in October, holdings reach 43,124 BTC;
TeraWulf and Hut 8 financial reports show mining companies' revenue focus has clearly shifted to HPC/AI leasing. $UNI $ZEC $XMR #UNI #zec #XMR Just saw this post, my first reaction was: the number of long accounts is almost three times that of short accounts, is the sentiment really that aligned? The OKEx BTC contract long-short ratio is currently 2.98, 24 hours ago it was 2.96, meaning for every 1 short account, there are 2.98 long accounts.
My understanding is that this data is more suitable to remind me to check for blind spots in my judgment; using it alone to predict direction is overrated. Not sure if that's right 🤔 First, it counts accounts, not positions, so more people doesn't directly equal stronger capital power; second, the change from 2.96 to 2.98 is minor, interpreting it as "bullish sentiment suddenly heating up" is a bit of an overreach.
I haven't figured out yet how high counts as the "extreme" mentioned in the material. Without that scale, simply applying "more people means the opposite move" is also quite lazy. I will pay attention to whether the ratio and price move in sync next, and won't put too much drama on a number for now.$BTC, $ETH The most cost-effective strategy in this trend is to buy the dip
But Da Bai thinks many people probably don't dare to buy the dip anymore
The sudden blowup events caught everyone off guard, wiping out too many positions
Yesterday's nonfarm payroll data release had basically no impact on the market
The next expectation is whether there will be a rate hike or a rate cut
The midterm elections also bring bearish factors, is there any other bearish news?
If not, then the market should at least have a small rebound, what do you think?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 A wick doesn't mean someone is rushing to buy
$SNDK has a wick that goes down and then bounces back.
It looks like someone is eager to buy.
What does this price level mean:
The wick only shows the order book at that moment.
A few orders can push the price down and then pull it back up.
Who is placing orders here:
If there were really big orders absorbing it, the price wouldn't just bounce once and stop.
Bouncing back to the original position means the buying side didn't keep up.
Looking further, wicks often appear in the middle of a downtrend.
They don't change the direction; they just leave those chasing the price stuck above.
Those who placed stop-loss orders just below the wick tip have already been swept out once.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
#$SNDK Wow, in the past hour, long liquidations accounted for 95%, and this wave hasn't been fully cleaned out yet.
As of November 7th, 03:45 UTC, four exchanges liquidated $171 million in the past 24 hours, with longs at $113.31 million and shorts at $57.66 million. Breaking it down by period shows a clearer pattern: 1-hour liquidation was $8.06 million with longs at 95%; 4-hour was $12.54 million with longs at 75%; 12-hour was $44.65 million with longs at 61%; and 24-hour longs accounted for 66%.
This indicates that short-term selling pressure hasn't completely passed, with longs still being forced out in the last hour. However, the longer the period, the less extreme the long-short gap, which means the overall daily structure is a continuous deleveraging rather than a sudden stampede at a single point in time.
Looking at derivatives, in CoinGecko's aggregated snapshot, the open interest (OI) for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL decreased by 0.6%, 2.9%, and 1.4% respectively over 24 hours. Prices have slightly stabilized while OI continues to shrink, which looks more like positions are retreating rather than new longs entering.
I'm not in a hurry to interpret reduced liquidations as a reversal. First, watch for OI to stop falling, then see if spot trading volume picks up. Do you think the next step should focus more on price or on position size?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% The liquidation pressure on the market is clear at a glance, and Maji keeps losing battle after battle!
From the liquidation data, $BTC is currently stuck in a critical range.
Once it breaks above $77,000, mainstream exchanges will face a concentrated liquidation of short positions totaling 958 million, which can easily trigger a short squeeze rally;
Conversely, if it falls below $75,000, 345 million in long positions will be liquidated, driving a surge in sell orders.
On the other side, the familiar big brother Maji is battling fiercely in the market again.
In the past few days, he has lost $505,000, quickly exhausting the funds raised by selling 15 NFTs. Today, he cashed out BAYC#32 to continue gambling with funds.
Now he has opened a 25x leveraged long position on 540 $ETH, already floating a loss of $32,000, with the liquidation price very close to the current price, posing extremely high risk.
The non-farm payroll impact on the market is actually not as big as imagined, and the volatility ended quickly. The subsequent volatility comes from the influence of the US stock market. Next, attention should be paid to US Treasury yields and CPI data~
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 What’s most worth noting today isn’t who insulted whom, but how a statement that never existed became "news" within a few hours.
The rumor version goes like this: Musk criticized Binance for holding 80% of the crypto market share and urged users to move their funds. Some took it as fact and emotions flared immediately—big platform monopoly, industry stuck, time to run.
CZ’s response was interesting. He didn’t write a long post to argue how the share was calculated; he just posted a screenshot asking for verification: Musk never posted that, nor did he call for fund transfers. Musk himself later confirmed the content was fabricated. Two sentences, and the matter was closed.
This is worth pondering. The rumor was dispelled so quickly not because the reasoning was clear, but because the "original source doesn’t exist" could be directly shown. A screenshot is more powerful than an argument; it pushes the burden of proof back: you say he said it, then show the original post.
Look at the spread side. A statement with a specific percentage is naturally more likely to be shared than "a certain exchange has a high share"—the number gives it a sense of certainty, certainty gives it credibility, and no one asks who calculated the 80% or whether it’s on-chain. The more precise the number, the fewer people question it.
For holders, the real impact isn’t on Binance but on the momentum. The role of such news isn’t to make you judge right or wrong, but to make you act before verifying. $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB have enough depth; a single rumor dispelled takes only a few minutes, but those minutes are when people cut positions and then buy back at higher prices.$BTC
In the bear-to-bull transition phase, the market is always discontinuous, and there are many unexpected issues, all bad ones.
Entered some long positions again at places with a high profit-loss ratio.
So far, this year's bull market has completely replicated the early 2023 bull market trend. The 8 months of consolidation in early 2023 left a deep impression. Back then, the capital wasn't very large, and I always wanted to catch every market fluctuation, which tortured me for 8 months.
Hope this time is different (but actually, it's pretty much the same every time) On the surface, it looks like altcoins are partying, but BTC and ETH aren't really keeping up. Can this hype last through the weekend? I've been watching $SNDK's market these past couple of days, and the more I look, the more interesting it gets. After being hammered for several consecutive days, the weekend sentiment is still leaking out, yet the price and volume quietly diverge at the lows. Many are selling, but the volume of the sell-offs is clearly less fierce than before. On the surface, panic continues, but the underlying structure tells a different story: short-term selling pressure might be dulling. 🫧 What really caught my attention isn't $SNDK itself, but the volatility phase it's in. BTC is moving steadily now, ETH is hesitating to follow, and altcoins are all doing their own thing—some are trying to rebound with volume at lows, others get pushed back after a single bounce. This mismatch indicates the market isn't trading a "full recovery," but rather "who catches their breath first." A symbol like $SNDK, which shows volume-price divergence after continuous selling, naturally becomes a window for short-term funds to observe repair elasticity. But whether it can really pull back above 1000 depends on whether the broader market provides the right backdrop. The bullish path is clear: once BTC stabilizes and ETH catches up, oversold altcoins with volume signs are likely to be picked first for sentiment repair, volatility will increase, and the pace will quicken. The risk is also there: if the weekend is just a low-volume false calm, and Monday opens weak, the divergence can continue, and volume at lows might turn into a new round of rotation. What’s truly unseen is whether this wave of selling has worn holders’ patience down to a critical point. My judgment is that this is more like a "breather window" within a volatility phase, not a full reversal #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Some clues about the allocation of funds in Q3 have actually emerged:
· Acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison: completed on July 24, cash consideration approximately $6.8 billion.
· Stock buybacks: repurchased over $3.3 billion of own shares in July alone (about $4.5 billion repurchased in Q2).
· Earlier large investments: net stock purchases of nearly $20 billion in Q2, including a $10 billion private placement investment in Alphabet.Family, the liquidation map is not just about who has the most liquidations, but also about who is moving in the opposite direction.
As of November 7, 03:45 UTC, the 24-hour perpetual liquidations on Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Gate totaled approximately $171 million, with long positions at $113.31 million and short positions at $57.66 million, longs accounting for about 66%. By coin, $BTC liquidations were $42.01 million, $ETH $33.35 million, with longs suffering heavier losses; XRP liquidations were $11.83 million, almost entirely borne by longs; $ZEC was the opposite, with short liquidations at $6.68 million, higher than long liquidations at $2.78 million.
The most noteworthy aspect of this chart is the divergence: BTC and ETH are still liquidating longs, while ZEC shows signs of short squeezes. SOL liquidations were about $4.67 million, noticeably smaller in scale. We cannot say that altcoins are broadly strengthening just because ZEC is rising, nor can we interpret BTC's long liquidations directly as a bottom.
A reminder: this total amount covers all perpetual contracts across the four platforms, including stock and fund contracts, not purely total crypto market liquidations.
I will continue to watch whether ZEC's open interest expands and whether BTC spot can hold. Do you think mainstream coins are deleveraging now, or is capital starting to shift direction?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $TON
TON's ecosystem has an interesting distribution advantage through its connection with the Telegram environment. However, access to a large potential audience is not the same as converting users into consistent blockchain participants. Wallet activity, application retention, transaction demand, and developer commitment will provide a clearer picture of whether its ecosystem can mature beyond initial attention.$DOGE
Dogecoin has something many newer projects struggle to establish: a recognizable identity and a large community. Yet community strength and sustainable network demand are two different things. Recent network data shows transaction activity increasing year over year while daily active addresses have declined. That contrast makes adoption quality an important part of the DOGE discussion.Not a single U in the wallet is missing, but the news says USDC dropped by 800 million in a week. Who took that money?
Not you. Circle issued 12.7 billion new this week and redeemed 13.5 billion, a net decrease of 800 million, meaning someone else exchanged U back.
Interestingly, their reserves are 70.5 billion, more than the 69.2 billion in circulation, with overnight reverse repos at 36.6 billion and treasury bills within three months at 23.3 billion making up the bulk. In other words, they put all the money in the safest places, accessible at any time.
So this 800 million is not a run, but someone reducing their position. As the $USDC level goes down, the buying power on the $BTC side has one less bullet. Let's watch it slowly.The storage chip sector has recently dropped sharply. Many who entered the market to go long and bottom-fish after seeing impressive earnings reports from Hynix and SanDisk have suffered significant losses. They were convinced it was a proper bottom after a pullback, but once they entered, they realized they had only caught the stock halfway down the slope. Despite record-breaking performance data and fully booked orders, which made people think they could steadily ride a recovery rally, the funds simply didn’t buy it. Positive news turned directly into a sell-off, and many who added to their positions only increased their floating losses, breaking their morale. Many focused solely on the attractive earnings reports and overlooked hidden negatives like the downward revision of HBM demand expectations and the slowing cycle growth, unknowingly stepping into a trap. So, can the prices still rebound? In my view, a short-term corrective rebound is highly likely to continue, but "rising back to the June highs" is very difficult and requires at least two or three hard conditions to be met simultaneously. First, the current price levels: • $SKHYNIX SK Hynix ADR: Closed at $127.34 on November 6, up 2.78%, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 6.5, having retraced more than half from the late June highs. • $xSNDK SanDisk: Closed at $835.06 on November 6, up 3.55%, with a market cap of about $118.8 billion and a PE of about 6.1; the June 25 high was $2,335, meaning it has been halved twice, and it dropped another 33.85% in October alone, with a 1-for-8 stock split scheduled for November 19. Both companies now represent a combination of "record-high earnings and valuation compressed to single-digit PE," which means there is limited room for further one-sided sharp declines, but it also indicates the market has alreadyStablecoins are the market's water level gauge, and this week the water level dropped by 800 million.
In the 7 days ending November 5, Circle issued about 12.7 billion $USDC and redeemed about 13.5 billion, a net decrease of 800 million, bringing the total supply down to 69.2 billion. The numbers look scary, but it's not a cliff dive.
Look at the reserve structure: 70.5 billion in reserves against 69.2 billion in circulation, an excess of about 1.3 billion. Among these, overnight reverse repos are 36.6 billion, and government bonds within three months are 23.3 billion; these two items total nearly 60 billion, all assets that can be liquidated at any time; institutional deposits are 9.9 billion, and other bank deposits are only 800 million. Circle places almost all reserves in the shortest-term government assets, preferring to earn less interest rather than locking in long durations, deliberately minimizing bank exposure.
Now look at this 800 million; the direction is more important than the amount. Issuance of 12.7 billion and redemption of 13.5 billion means funds are flowing quickly in both directions, not a one-way drain. More redemptions than issuance usually indicate on-exchange leverage is decreasing, or someone is swapping $USDC for other stablecoins.
I lean toward the former, a mild deleveraging, not a doubt about Circle's credit. If it were a credit issue, reserves wouldn't stay steady at 70.5 billion.
One point to watch: if next week's net outflow expands beyond 2 billion and $BTC trading volume also shrinks, then it's not just a portfolio shift but a wholesale exit. At that time, the focus should be on when $USDC issuance again exceeds redemptions, not on how much $ETH falls.Among large-cap coins, only $QNT showed a decent bullish candle today. Coinglass reports 203.7, up 7.7% in 24 hours. CoinStats says social platforms are again hyping the old news "Clearinghouse adopts Quant," replaying the story. That was settled on September 24, when the US clearinghouse TCH chose Quant as the interoperability layer for tokenized deposit networks, planning to open to banks in the first half of 2027. QNT surged from around 65 to 372 back then, later giving back more than half, down 19.5% over 30 days, but still up 193% year-to-date.
Leverage isn't heavy. Total network positions are $80.05 million, with only $970,000 liquidated in 24 hours, longs and shorts evenly split, so no short squeeze. Binance account long-short ratio is 1.07, OKX is 1.23, Binance whales hold a 1.55 long-short ratio, whales are more bullish than retail. Contract daily volume is 150 million, spot only 23.6 million, price is set by the contract market. Funding turned into a net inflow of 400,000 over 4 hours, but a net outflow of 76.57 million over 30 days, big money hasn't returned.
The problem is the story and price don't align. Neither TCH nor Quant said banks have to buy QNT; platform fees can be paid in dollars. 209 is the upper boundary of the October downtrend channel. To prove this isn't just a replay of old news, we need new developments like TCH releasing a list of participating banks, and the price to leverage that to break above 209; without anything, it will fall back below 190, making this bullish candle a fakeout, with 175 to be tested. $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #Anthropic still plans an IPO in November, investors lower valuation expectations With non-farm payrolls approaching, can employment data strengthen December rate hike expectations?
My US stock pre-market diary (November 5, 2026): Major players are dumping SNDK, SpaceX, SOXL — should you short or lay low?
Looking at the pre-market volume leaderboard, don’t be fooled by the “slight dip in the three major indexes.” S&P futures only fell 0.06%, but SOXL pre-market is down 6.93%, SNDK down 2.93%, SpaceX down 1.06%. This is not a broad decline; funds are concentrated on suppressing AI hardware stocks.
The reasons for the declines in these three stocks are completely different.
SND’s revenue surged 372% last quarter, but next quarter guidance of 10.3-10.8 billion is below the expected 11.148 billion, with gross margin flat, showing signs of peaking.
Texas policy shift: the governor proposes suspending new data center construction; Goldman Sachs estimates this affects about 45% of expansion capacity nationwide.
SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, dropping from 79 to 62.36, triggering stop-losses and passive liquidations leading to concentrated exits.
SpaceX’s mission delayed due to oxidizer leak; related government contracts are under review.
Software giants did not sell off simultaneously; funds are shifting from compute power narratives to cash flow certainty, not exiting. Open your positions and check stop-loss levels on compute power orders.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC CPI Preview, December Interest Rate Direction Faces a Critical Test $BTC, $ETH Are About to Face a Big Test Again? The most important event in the market this week is the upcoming US CPI inflation data release! The previous non-farm payrolls already dealt a heavy blow to the market, with October adding 165,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. Strong employment data has led the market to re-bet on a Fed rate hike in December, with the probability once rising close to 80%. Now everyone's attention is focused on the CPI! Why is this CPI so important? Because it may directly affect the Fed's interest rate decision in December. Currently, the market is in a somewhat awkward position: If CPI continues to rise: Inflation pressure will be hard to ease, expectations for a December rate hike may further heat up, the dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen, and BTC, ETH, as well as US tech stocks, will face greater pressure. If CPI is below expectations: Signs of cooling inflation may appear, market tightening expectations may ease, and risk assets may see a wave of recovery rebound. If CPI meets expectations: The market may not immediately choose a direction, and subsequent judgments will need to combine employment, consumption, and Fed officials' speeches. My personal view: We cannot simply assume the market will continue to fall just because non-farm payrolls are strong, nor can we prematurely bet on a rebound just because CPI may cool down. What really needs attention is whether the inflation and employment data sets can resonate, and whether the Fed will further release hawkish signals. For BTC, ETOn the same day, for the same type of product, BlackRock's IBIT saw an outflow of $403 million, while Fidelity's FBTC had an inflow of $42.8 million.
SoSoValue recorded a net outflow of about $412 million for the US stock spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 6, with Ethereum ETFs also seeing an outflow of $93.19 million. Two consecutive days of withdrawals, with IBIT almost entirely responsible for the red figures, while FBTC alone turned green. The price is still hovering around 76,117, but the funds have already cast their votes.
If institutions really act as a whole, why can the two largest funds move in completely opposite directions?$SNDK
Storage stock volatility amplifies, how will SanDisk differentiate itself from sector trading?
This week, AI and semiconductors experienced significant pullbacks, and the storage industry chain is also undergoing a capital reassessment. Price changes have amplified market disagreements on demand and supply rhythms.
Flash memory needs to be viewed separately for data centers and consumer ends. Enterprise-level demand growth is more likely to improve overall profitability only if it exceeds the impact of new capacity additions and weak consumption.
I focus on unit price, inventory reduction, and cash expenditure. If the product mix improves and inventory decreases, it can raise expectations for profit recovery; if demand is merely customers stocking up in advance and orders subsequently decline, the judgment on the cycle duration should be lowered.I thought the miners' motto was "just mine one more," but Bitdeer seems more like a self-disciplined canteen in the crypto circle: they cook their own meals and leave not a single bite. 😂
According to PANews, Bitdeer posted a weekly update on X: as of November 6, this week they produced 258.6 $BTC, all sold, with a net holding increase of 0, holding zero inventory excluding customer deposits. I see this more as a shift in managing risk rather than a vote against the market.
Selling the output reduces exposure to price fluctuations of their own inventory, but future mining income is still affected by coin prices; zero holdings do not mean zero risk. Selling coins can bring in cash flow but does not directly prove profitability; profits still depend on costs. So I think judging the operational quality of mining companies is more important than bullish or bearish interpretations. I continue to focus on unit production costs because whether the canteen is profitable cannot be judged by just counting empty plates.🔍 What I'm stuck on isn't the amount of coins sold, but the timeframe of "this week": is one week's activity enough to label mining companies as bearish? Let's not rush to conclusions.
According to Bitdeer's weekly report posted on X, as of November 6, all 258.6 $BTC produced this week have been sold, with net holdings at zero and positions also at zero (excluding customer deposits). What is certain is that coins were sold; what is uncertain is why they were sold.
An interesting detail here: selling the output can convert it back to cash, but it doesn't directly prove a judgment that the coin price will fall. This is my speculation: they may prioritize cash turnover over holding coin exposure. I believe treating this news as an industry bearish signal is weak evidence; the material lacks cost and fund usage details, and the motive isn't confirmed. I will continue to compare subsequent weekly reports and cash expenditures, and won't write a complete narrative for the company based on a single disclosure.Oklo's $3.1B cash position gives its buildout time, but the ~$123M nine-month loss shows why execution discipline still matters. Steel installation at Aurora is tangible progress; the 2030 target for up to 1.2GW in Ohio leaves a long window in which financing, construction and delivery milestones must earn confidence.
#OkloNuclearBuildout The most dangerous moment for a short seller is not the slide that pays the position. It is the bounce that does not. The recent rout in US equities, which drove the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to its steepest one-day fall since March 2020, has handed bearish traders a tempting narrative: storage names look vulnerable, and $SNDK has become a favoured expression of that view. But the mechanics of shorting invert the usual psychology. Falling prices invite conviction and size; rising prices tETF funds have started to run together
From running in turns to running together. Confidence in ETH hasn't stabilized; once the leading ETF expands, the turning point arrives
Yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 411.9 million USD, marking two consecutive trading days of large withdrawals; the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 93.3 million USD during the same period, also for two consecutive days.
This year, funds have been switching back and forth between BTC and ETH, but this time they flowed out simultaneously—the selling pressure has spread from a single asset to the entire spot ETF channel.
ETH is even more worth watching: 93.3 million USD is not a large absolute amount, but after October 8, there were 8 consecutive days of outflows, with an inflow of only 4.4 million on October 23, and now two consecutive days of giving back. This indicates that institutional demand for ETH allocation has not yet stabilized.
The issuer breakdown was not disclosed, but in similar outflows in June, IBIT had a single-day outflow of 388.6 million, accounting for about 75%. When leading products move, the capital turning point is amplified.
$BTC and $ETH have shifted from running in turns to running together
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 I'll teach everyone a trick to determine if an exchange is safe! Watch carefully!
My view is that to judge whether a platform is safe, you can first look at the K-line trend of its platform token. K-lines often reflect some future events in advance. Previously, the platform tokens of collapsed exchanges showed signs of frantic cashing out early on the K-line.
Now look at BNB: its current market cap is still as high as $90 billion, and the K-line trend remains within a normal correction range, even more resilient than most major coins. For example, BNB dropped 5.1% yesterday, while most major coins fell more than 9%.
So, judging only from the platform token K-line perspective, my conclusion is just two words: rest assured, very safe.
Not an advertisement, analyzed with conscience! $BNB Net increase of 0 coins, I think this goes against the narrative of hoarding coins, weakening bullish sentiment, but this alone cannot determine that the $BTC trend has turned bearish. Bitdeer has sold all its output this week; the selling pressure is real, and whether the market can absorb it is the key.
I follow three rules for trend tracking: look at price for direction, not the attitude of mining companies; assess strength by absorption, not just the volume of coins sold; confirm continuation by verification, not by guessing the top from single-week disclosures.
The trend is the best friend, I wait for the movement to be verified. After such mining company news comes out, do you use moving averages or volume-price relationships to judge if the trend has changed?Let's do the math: Bitcoin at 76046.7, ranging from 74887.9 to 76378.7, fluctuating 1490 points in one day, finally settling in the middle, up 0.49%.
If you chase back and forth within this 1500-point range, fees plus slippage easily eat up two to three hundred points, leaving less than enough for a single stop loss. So I simply haven't made any moves these past few days, just watching it grind.
The details are actually deteriorating: six candles in one hour, closing at 76042.9, 76039, 75897.4, 75908.1, 76034.6, 76056.6; the highest candle had a volume of 110, surging high then falling back; the volumes climbing back afterward were only 64 and 79, and the last one just over 5 points. The rise is on shrinking volume, the fall on expanding volume—this structure is unhealthy.
Looking at the 4-hour mid-term line at 76622, the price has been below it; the funding rate is 0.00000397, down again from a few hours ago, indicating bulls are losing the willingness to pay.
The conclusion is straightforward: don't chase above 76000; if you really want to act, wait around 75500 to see the reaction; if it breaks 74887, then it's no longer a pullback. Those who wait don't lose money; those who chase get hit every day.#US October Nonfarm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, December Rate Hike Bets Heat Up Nonfarm Payrolls Explode! BTC keeps hovering around 75,000, which of the three scenarios in Orbit do you support? 📉👀$BTC
Last night, the US October nonfarm payroll data was released, showing an increase of 165,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Once the data came out, bets on a December rate hike instantly heated up, and the US dollar index surged sharply. Normally, strong nonfarm payrolls suppress risk assets, so BTC should have crashed directly, but the market kept grinding near 75,000 and even showed a counter-trend rebound.
Looking at community opinions, there are currently three main scenarios:
Scenario A (Oversold Rebound): Under strong nonfarm pressure, the counter-trend rebound of risk assets is mostly a technical oversold bounce, with no logic for a trend reversal, and its sustainability is doubtful, so don't jump in lightly.
Scenario B (Betting on Short Covering): The market had already fallen deeply before the nonfarm data release, so the better-than-expected data became a reason for shorts to cover positions. With the bad news out, the market has now shifted to short-term speculation.
Scenario C (Prudent Macro): A single month of strong nonfarm payrolls is not enough to set the path; the real watershed will be the upcoming CPI and dot plot guidance. The current rise in rate hike bets is just short-term noise.
My personal view:
In the short term, I lean towards Scenario B; the short covering at the moment the data landed is definitely a trading opportunity; but in the medium term, I support Scenario C.
Macro data noise is too high; rather than guessing the Fed, it's better to wait for CPI data to do right-side trading.
Do you think this is a "dead cat bounce" or that the bad news is fully priced in? Are you bullish or bearish today? Come discuss in the comments.$QQQ has plummeted more than 6%, even breaking below the 50-week moving average! This is a risk for short-term investors but could be an opportunity for long-term investors!
I strongly agree with wander's observation! I pulled up the weekly chart of QQQ for nearly 10 years and found a phenomenon that long-term investors should seriously consider. Currently, QQQ is around $647, having broken below the 200-day moving average of $680 and the 50-week moving average of $669, but it is still far from the 200-week moving average of $504.
What does this mean? The short-term trend has clearly weakened, but the long-term upward structure has not been completely destroyed! Looking back at the major corrections in 2018, 2020, and 2022, after QQQ broke below the 50-week moving average, it often experienced painful volatility or further declines, but over a longer period, it also provided good opportunities for phased accumulation.
I have always believed that when investing in the Nasdaq 100, the most important thing is not to guess the lowest point but to accumulate quality assets with discipline during market panic. Of course, breaking below the 50-week moving average does not mean it is cheap enough yet, nor can it rule out the risk of further approaching the 200-week moving average. My strategy is simple: respect the short-term trend, focus on long-term opportunities, build positions in phases, keep cash on hand, and avoid rushing to bottom fish all at once.
True long-term investors should learn to study opportunities when others are fearful, rather than panic along with market sentiment!AI stocks rebounded, but the gains shrank by half, did the bottom-fishers end up taking the hit again?
Not necessarily. A single day of a rise followed by a fall is not enough to declare the rebound dead.
Last night, Nvidia rose about 7% intraday but closed with only 2.8%; the Nasdaq narrowed from 1.7% to 1.1%. There were buyers at the low, but once the price went up, sell orders pushed it down.
Three points to clarify:
1. Panic easing ≠ confidence restored
The rebound includes both bottom-fishers and short-covering. Just because some dare to bet doesn’t mean others dare to chase the highs.
2. After a big drop, a rebound is possible; to keep rising requires worries to cool down
The market fears tighter AI regulation and a slowdown in data centers. One day of price increase won’t make these issues disappear; we still need to watch policy details and capital expenditure guidance.
3. The sector is diverging
AMD and Intel closed up about 11% and 8%, clearly stronger than Nvidia; capital is starting to pick selectively.
Next week, watch three things: whether the pullback can hold Friday’s low, whether the leading stocks can continue to be strong, and whether the price can hold above Friday’s high on another rally.
Repeated high opens and low closes mean using the rebound to exit; a pullback with shrinking volume followed by expanding volume breakout means the rebound is solid.
Panic is retreating, but there aren’t enough buyers chasing the rise yet. The first bullish candle only shows the downtrend is easing; whether the bottom is solid depends on subsequent support.Last night's Non-Farm Payrolls release triggered another market pullback and liquidation wave. Fortunately, my previously placed large $BTC buy order at $75,000 was finally filled! $BTC : Bitcoin currently lacks independent bullish catalysts and remains heavily influenced by interest-rate expectations. The stronger-than-expected employment data pushed the market to price in a 20bp rate hike in December, while the US Dollar Index and Treasury yields moved higher. Under these circumstances, $BTC #BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $416 million this year. The 24-hour increase is 6%, approaching 2450, but incremental spot funds have not entered the market.
This recent rise near 2450 comes from concentrated short position liquidations; the previous outflow of ETF funds has not been reversed or absorbed. The market only recorded a slight continuation of 1.14%, with very faint signs of buying momentum.
A large number of orders are stacked between 2440 and 2450. The 2500 level is the dividing line for the market trend. Only by holding the 2350 support on a pullback and then breaking through 2450 with volume can the trend repair and continue.
Compare with your position list and check the distance between your take-profit orders and the 2450 resistance line.
$ETH $BTC $SOL $FET
Artificial intelligence and blockchain are often discussed together, but combining two technologies does not automatically create a useful product. Fetch.ai's vision around autonomous agents and decentralized machine intelligence offers an interesting direction. The important distinction is between speculative interest and functioning applications. Real agent activity, developer participation, and practical utility will ultimately matter more than AI narratives.$ONE rose 57%, but no one can clearly explain why it surged
ONE directly surged 57% today, jumping from 0.0011 to 0.00198, nearly doubling in one day. Trading volume expanded 21 times, from a few million to over twenty million dollars.
Interestingly, after the rise, mainstream media only gave one sentence as the reason, with no confirmed catalyst. So what is the market speculating on? After some research, two explanations were found.
First is transformation. Harmony is preparing to shift from a Layer 1 public chain to the "AI video" sector, creating a platform called The Remix Economy for AI Video. Second is migration. It plans to migrate the chain to Ethereum and will distribute tokens to eligible wallets.
Both explanations are "stories," not "progress." The transformation has no timeline, the migration lacks a technical plan, and the token distribution ratio hasn't even been disclosed. More importantly, this project suffered a vulnerability attack in August, causing the chain to roll back, so its trust foundation is weak.
Therefore, the judgment is: this wave is driven by funds speculating on stories, not value reassessment. Do not chase; you can short lightly around 0.00195, set a stop loss at 0.00215, and target 0.0017 first! #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Last night, the October nonfarm payrolls were released, completely smashing expectations.
Added 165,000 jobs, expected 65,000, with the previous two months revised up by 84,000; unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
As soon as the data came out, the market immediately changed its tune: the probability of a rate hike in December surged from about 75% to around 80%.
#FederalReserve observations show the probability of keeping rates unchanged in December is only 22.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 77.7%. Short-term interest rate futures fell, with traders increasing bets on another hike in December.
Employment growth is broad-based, led by professional business services and healthcare.
But one detail is worth noting: the initial one-year inflation expectation for November is 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.7%. Inflation expectations are falling, yet employment is so strong, giving the Federal Reserve more room to refocus policy on inflation pressures.
Additionally, the #US economy now only needs to create about 40,000 jobs per month to keep up with the growth of the working-age population — this breakeven level has dropped from about 150,000 in 2024. Labor supply is shrinking due to tighter immigration and increased retirements, which is the main reason for the low unemployment rate. Economists and Federal Reserve officials have consistently believed that the labor market itself does not pose an inflation risk.
Employment is strong enough to revive #ratehike bets, and the low unemployment rate keeps the Federal Reserve calm. Whether to hike in December or not, this report has tipped the scales toward "hike" again.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 If the bulls were to hold a homeowners' meeting and saw this ratio of participants, they might think they should have full control over the elevator ads. But the market isn't like property management; even if more people raise their hands, it doesn't necessarily decide which floor to go to. 😂
According to OKEx futures trading data, the current $BTC long-to-short ratio is 2.98, compared to 2.96 24 hours ago. That means for every 1 short position account, there are 2.98 long position accounts. What I care more about is the usage boundary of this "roster": it's suitable for warning about crowding risk, but not for comparing the capital strength between longs and shorts.
The reason is straightforward: the ratio of participants doesn't consider position size; having more accounts doesn't equal more capital, as a few large positions can shift the power balance. Also, the change from 2.96 to 2.98 is only 0.02, so you can't say that a state already biased toward longs suddenly saw a flood of people entering. As for extreme situations that tend to reverse, I treat that as a risk warning, not an automatic short trigger—the data doesn't provide a specific threshold to define "extreme."
If the ratio continues to rise, I'll pay more attention to crowding risk. This is my speculation, not a market forecast. When you see a ratio close to 3 to 1, which mistake are you more likely to make: feeling safe following the majority, or rushing to join the minority? Pick one—the market doesn't hand out awards for best conformity or best contrarian.ETF turned to net outflow, let's first pour some cold water: I am bearish, but I don't agree with directly translating this news as "funds continuously fleeing crypto." This daily report also mentioned pressure on tech stocks and rising US Treasury yields, indicating poor risk appetite, but a pessimistic narrative still needs evidence to support it.
I'm stuck on two points: the report doesn't provide the scale or persistence of the ETF outflow, so based on direction alone, it's hard to tell if it's a short-term portfolio adjustment or a trend withdrawal; rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding risky assets, which could be a reason for funds to withdraw, but it's not proof of continuous outflows. Mixing the two can easily exaggerate the signal.
Of course, the bearish view could also be correct. If ETFs continue to have net outflows and interest rate pressure doesn't ease, I would lean more toward the judgment that capital demand is weakening. Next, I will focus on the persistence of capital flows and won't use a single "net outflow" to stamp the entire trend.The risk-reward of this matter is asymmetric: changing the billing incurs costs, but the returns can only be seen after the rules are finalized. CryptoSlate states that the EIP-8037 state gas rules force Ethereum applications to rewrite billing; the call on November 6 urges projects to test gas assumptions and report fixes, which may affect the Glamsterdam specification.
I tend to see this as adaptation pressure rather than a market positive. Old billing assumptions need retesting, and applications relying on gas sponsorship or fixed pricing may be more sensitive—this is my speculation. Fix feedback can also impact the specification, meaning timely testing could reduce rework later, but it doesn't necessarily mean user fees will decrease.
If testing can reveal cost boundaries, the investment is worthwhile; if the rules are not finalized and a full rewrite is done, the risk of rework may lower expectations. I will watch the test results and specification changes closely and will not give technical proposals extra weight in price odds.#马斯克预计SpaceX年底年化营收突破1000亿美元
The boss has something to say
I came across Musk's post and first noticed a detail: he said SpaceX's annualized revenue will hit $100 billion by the end of 2026, with Q4 quarter-on-quarter growth of 70%, but he specifically emphasized this is an annualized run rate, not full-year revenue; the target for the end of 2027 is $500 billion annualized. The growth focus shifts from rockets and Starlink to AI computing power, with government orders dropping from 16.6% in Q3 to below 10% in Q4. Meanwhile, Tesla plans to stop Cybertruck production at the Texas factory by mid-2027 to free up capacity for the Cybercab autonomous taxi.
My interpretation is: Musk is telling the market a bigger story — transforming from a space company into an AI and robotics company. But the current macro environment is not buying it: non-farm payrolls disappointed, December rate hike probability is 79%, and the whole market is killing high-valuation narratives. The $100 billion annualized projection he painted can't support the stock price in the short term. For the crypto space, SPCX-related coins have weak correlation with BTC, mostly sentiment-driven, and do not constitute trading signals.
BTC is currently around 74,800, consolidating on Saturday. My approach: I listen to Musk's story but keep my position unchanged; 75,000 remains resistance, looking down to 73,000. For weekend news like this, just take a look, don't chase it with real money.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ RKLB is about to release its Q3 earnings! Could this be the catalyst for a stock price rebound?
Rocket Lab (RKLB) will announce its Q3 2026 earnings after the U.S. market close on November 9. After recent intense volatility in tech growth stocks, this earnings report could be a crucial turning point for RKLB's next phase.
The market currently expects Q3 revenue of about $257 million, a year-over-year increase of approximately 66%, with a loss per share of about $0.07. Previously, Q2 revenue set a record at $234 million, with a backlog of $2.36 billion, indicating that demand in commercial space remains strong.
I believe there are three key points to watch in this earnings report:
① Can revenue continue to exceed expectations? The market already anticipates rapid growth, so merely meeting expectations may not be enough to sustain a stock price rise.
② Progress of the Neutron rocket. Compared to short-term profits, the development progress, first flight timing, and commercial orders of Neutron may more directly impact long-term valuation. The project timeline has been adjusted before, so the latest guidance from management is especially critical.
③ Growth expectations for 2027. Whether the Space Systems business, defense orders, and satellite business integration can bring higher revenue and profit growth will determine if the market is willing to continue granting RKLB a growth premium.
#RKLB #RocketLab #USStocks #EarningsSeason #CommercialSpace #Neutron$ATOM
Cosmos has an interesting challenge: its technology supports an interconnected blockchain ecosystem, but that does not automatically guarantee value accrual to ATOM. The relationship between ecosystem expansion, interchain security, and token demand deserves closer attention. A growing network of independent chains is promising, but the economic benefits must reach the core ecosystem.$MU
Micron rebounds with chips; what is the validation point for the memory cycle?
On November 6 intraday, Micron and the semiconductor sector rebounded together. This reflects a change in risk appetite but cannot alone prove that memory supply and demand are tightening again.
Memory companies' profits are sensitive to price and utilization. Strong AI memory demand does not mean all product lines can raise prices simultaneously; weak consumer demand may also drag down the mix.
I am more focused on subsequent contract prices, inventory, and capital expenditures. If high value-added products ramp up while ordinary product inventory declines, the recovery is more comprehensive; if capacity expansion outpaces demand and customers rebuild inventory, a single-day rebound cannot eliminate cycle risks.Last night, the October nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeded market expectations: 165,000 new jobs added, expected 65,000, with the previous two months revised upward by a total of 84,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in December rose from about 75% to around 80%; the probability of maintaining the rate in December is 22.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 77.7%. Short-term interest rate futures fell as traders increased their bets on a December rate hike. Job growth was broad-based, with professional business services and healthcare leading.
Notably, the initial one-year inflation expectation for November was 4.3%, below the expected 4.7%. Inflation expectations have declined, but employment remains strong, giving the Federal Reserve more room to focus on inflation pressures.
The economy keeps pace with labor force growth, requiring only about 40,000 new jobs per month, a breakeven value that has fallen from about 150,000 in 2024. Labor supply contraction, tighter immigration, and increased retirements are the main reasons for the lower unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve and economists believe the labor market itself does not pose inflation risks.
Strong employment data has reignited rate hike expectations, and the low unemployment rate also makes the Federal Reserve's stance more hawkish. This report further tilts the direction toward a rate hike in December.$TON
TON has an interesting distribution advantage through its connection with Telegram's ecosystem. Yet access to a large communication platform does not automatically create sustainable blockchain adoption. The important distinction is between users discovering crypto applications and users consistently finding value in them. Developer quality, user retention, and application utility will determine how far this opportunity develops.Bitcoin ($BTC), Ethereum ($ETH), and SOL ($SOL) simultaneously experienced a downward trend, but their liquidation structures in the derivatives market have taken completely different paths. Bitcoin's current price is near 76154, down 5.69% in 24 hours. Although the overall market still leans bullish, the main liquidations during this downturn were shorts, with the squeeze from the rebound causing losses for the short side. Ethereum ($ETH) is in a tighter situation, down 7.81%, with the long-short ratio further rising. The long position crowding is the highest among the three major coins, and many long orders have been forced to close recently. SOL ($SOL) fell 6.28%, with a relatively milder trend. The long-short ratio slightly declined, but the liquidation pressure is also borne by the longs. This round of declines in $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL belongs to an ongoing downtrend, but internal forces have already split. The crowded long positions in $ETH and $SOL still face the risk of forced selling, while Bitcoin's long-short structure is relatively balanced, allowing for greater two-way volatility. The key next point to watch is whether the 75000 level can hold. If the support fails, Ethereum and SOL may face even more intense sell-offs than Bitcoin.