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ASTS earnings report vote, I choose No
AST SpaceMobile will release its Q3 earnings after the US market closes on 11/9. The market is asking if the GAAP EPS will be better than -0.41. Currently, Yes is at 22¢, No at 79¢, and I am betting No.
The reason is simple: this question is about GAAP, not adjusted figures. ASTS's GAAP losses have always been amplified by one-time items. Q1 quarterly GAAP was -0.66, which included convertible bond inducement conversion fees and stock-based compensation. Q2 was even worse, with GAAP at -0.77, including a $126 million involuntary conversion loss. Last year's Q3 was also -0.45.
Furthermore, even the more lenient whisper number is more pessimistic than consensus, calling for -0.48. The company itself says operating expenses are about $100 million per quarter, and Q2 has already reached the upper end of that range. The more satellites there are, the heavier the depreciation; in July, they issued $1.15 billion in convertible bonds, so interest will also add up.
The risk is a Q4'25 scenario: revenue explosion plus fair value changes, making GAAP losses very small. So I’m not going all in. Buying No at 79¢, if correct, yields about a 27% profit. Polkadot fell below $0.92, with market capitalization narrowing to $1.57 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of only $1.74 million. Although the decline is less than 1%, it reveals concerns about liquidity drying up. Social buzz has dropped to zero, sentiment indicators are completely silent, and smart money simultaneously shows net short positions with no substantial holdings. This is not a panic sell-off but a repricing process by capital following the failure of the parachain auction model. Whether the JAM upgrade and elastic core time can be implemented within the year will directly determine if DOT can break free from the valuation dilemma of "infrastructure without fees." The current price already implies a lot of pessimistic expectations, but rebounds lacking positive catalysts are often short-lived. Core judgment: weak consolidation awaits JAM progress fulfillment; a breakdown requires volume support.#美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧 The latest US military strike is a targeted limited air raid, without directly attacking the strait's facilities, but it has completely disrupted the negotiation rhythm for the strait's navigation. The market had originally priced in easing expectations and pre-emptively realized risk premiums, causing oil prices to fall earlier. Now, disagreements have widened again: the US demands unconditional free passage through the strait, while Iran insists on obtaining sanction concessions and a say in navigation rules. It is difficult for both sides to reach an agreement in the short term.
Although the strait is not completely closed, the efficiency of passage has clearly declined, raising shipping insurance and detour costs, which is an implicit supply constraint. The biggest contradiction is that even partial navigation does not mean the risk is removed; Iran has the capability to attack ships or block the strait at any time. Coupled with the Democratic Party controlling Congress, the US is leaning towards tougher control over the Iran route, making it even harder for a détente agreement to be reached.
The market will enter a high volatility mode: as long as the strait is not fully closed, oil prices are unlikely to quickly rebound to previous highs; but each round of military friction will rapidly push up geopolitical premiums, driving pulses in crude oil and gold prices, while suppressing risk assets. The core points to watch going forward are whether Iran's counterattacks will target oil tankers and the strait, and whether both sides can produce a workable navigation framework. The current stage is an awkward zone of “détente expectations disproved, but not yet a full supply disruption,” with fierce long-short battles and very little room for position error. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔹Why SOXL crashed so severely in this recent sharp drop (corresponding to last night's Nasdaq/Semiconductor plunge)
1. The SOX Semiconductor Index itself plunged significantly (due to AI computing power regulation expectations and crowded long positions being liquidated)
2. SOXL has a built-in 3x leverage that amplifies the single-day decline
3. During the decline, leverage rebalancing causes negative compounding (the more it falls, the more exposure is passively adjusted, amplifying drawdowns)
4. Panic selling, liquidity issues, and stop-loss triggers resonate, often causing large discounts/price jumps$TLT
After the strong employment report, which segment of the long bond yield curve is most concerning?
The October US nonfarm payroll increase and the upward revisions for the previous two months have reduced the market's confidence in a rapid cooling of employment. Long bond prices are influenced not only by the next policy decision but also by long-term inflation and term premiums.
Even if short-term policy expectations remain stable, investors demanding higher long-term compensation is enough to pressure long-duration bonds.
I will observe short-term expectations and long-term actual yields separately. If growth cools, inflation eases, and term premiums decline, there is more basis for long bond recovery; if employment remains resilient and inflation risks coexist, a single pullback should not be taken as a confirmed peak in yields.The one that fell more actually didn't fall fully into place
$XRP fell 9.6% in 24 hours, closing at 1.1770.
$LTC only fell 4.3%, closing at 52.75.
How this number is calculated: the drop is only counted from start to end.
It doesn't tell you a word about the movement in between.
$XRP went back above 1.20 but couldn't hold and dropped again.
$LTC went from 52 back above 53, leaving some distance when retreating.
Easy to misread: falling less doesn't mean more resistance to falling.
$LTC is slowly climbing back, $XRP bounces up then falls.
The former holds onto the recovery, the latter has to fight again.
The drop is the result; the way it organizes after the pullback is the information.
$XRP is now hugging the lower edge, leaving no room for itself.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元
#$XRP $LTC #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank's Q2 earnings are not "impressive," but rather a naked swim in "paper wealth."
OpenAI's valuation remained flat in Q2, with SoftBank's $44.6 billion investment contributing zero returns, and the Vision Fund's profits plummeting 98.8% to 5.4 billion yen. Net profit only fell 18%, solely propped up by Intel's stock trading gains of 1.3 trillion yen, which has nothing to do with "AI investment foresight."
More dangerously, SoftBank immediately pledged its OpenAI equity as collateral to borrow $10 billion in a margin loan, with terms requiring additional collateral or early repayment if the valuation drops significantly. Meanwhile, SoftBank's five-year CDS has widened to about 350 basis points, the widest among Japanese companies—the bond market has long voted with its feet.
The so-called "heavy bet on OpenAI" essentially treats the valuation of an unprofitable startup burning tens of billions annually as net assets to leverage. Once the valuation stalls, the financial report immediately reveals the truth; if the valuation falls, it triggers not a "correction" but a liquidity noose. Masayoshi Son is betting on OpenAI becoming the next Nvidia, but the financial report proves: currently, it is just a dud on SoftBank's balance sheet that cannot fluctuate.#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Huge cash reserves are Berkshire's "dry gunpowder"; they are not in a hurry to deploy it, patiently waiting for opportunities with a suitable cost-performance ratio, which is also a signal of cautious valuation in the current market.$ARB
Arbitrum faces an important challenge: converting its established Layer-2 infrastructure into lasting ecosystem demand. Lower transaction costs can attract applications and users, but they do not automatically create sustainable economic activity. DeFi liquidity, gaming applications, developer retention, and recurring transactions offer better indicators of ecosystem health. Long-term progress depends on whether activity remains meaningful beyond incentive-driven periods.ETF outflows of $530 million, but prices did not crash in sync
Notably: On November 6, U.S. spot crypto ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $530.2 million, with BTC outflows of $411.9 million, ETH outflows of $93.19 million, and SOL outflows of $25.08 million. Institutional funds are withdrawing, yet prices have not collapsed accordingly, showing a divergence between capital and price.
$BTC: Around $76,113 at 09:00 UTC on November 7, up 0.6% in 24 hours. However, daily ETF outflows exceeded $400 million; price stabilization does not mean institutional inflows.
$ETH: Around $2,250, up 1.1% in 24 hours, stronger than BTC; yet ETFs still had a net outflow of about $93.19 million. Prices are stronger, but subscriptions and redemptions did not align, so the divergence remains to be verified.
$SOL: Around $90.29, up 0.8% in 24 hours; ETF net outflows of about $25.08 million. Smaller scale, funds remain cautious.
I am more concerned whether subsequent outflows will narrow. If ETF outflows stop and spot trading volume expands, the recovery will be more solid; otherwise, it may just be short-term buying propping up prices. Would you wait for ETFs to turn positive first, or watch for price breakthroughs first?
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Current situation of SanDisk: explosive income statement, shattered candlestick chart, two conflicting signals.
Latest close at $835, a single-day rebound of 3.55%, but down 27% over the past week. Intraday high reached $912, low $816, nearly $100 amplitude, indicating neither bulls nor bears have convinced the other.
The financial report is indeed ridiculously strong: quarterly revenue of $11 billion, up 378% year-over-year, gross margin 85%, net profit $8.1 billion, data center business revenue increased nearly 17 times. But the market’s concern is not whether it is currently profitable, but whether the 85% gross margin signals a cycle peak. The history of storage chips has repeatedly taught us: when gross margin reaches this height, it often means the turning point is near.
Another variable is the 8-for-1 stock split effective November 20. The split does not change market capitalization, but against the backdrop of the stock price falling from 2354 to 835, it is easily interpreted as a "high-level market cap management" move rather than a pure positive.
So the current situation is very clear: fundamentals tell you "I am cheap," technicals tell you "don’t catch a falling knife." $900 is the first resistance above; it touched $912 on Friday but was pushed back, indicating real selling pressure; the short-term support zone is $780–800, breaking which looks toward $700.
My view is simple: before the stock split takes effect, I won’t make decisions for the market. Wait until around November 20 when the chip structure reshuffles, then see if $900 can be reclaimed; that’s more meaningful than guessing the bottom now.It now feels more like a post-shakeout game phase, not a mindless chase for gains. The sudden surge in net inflows—does it mean risk appetite has returned, or is it just short-term replenishment? A couple of days ago while watching the market, I was wondering why BTC leverage suddenly went quiet. After checking the data, I found that the 24-hour net inflow of about 1,308,700 BTC represents a nearly 195% jump from the previous day and a 256% increase compared to a week ago; meanwhile, the liquidation amount dropped sharply to about $41.65 million across 3,152 cases, down nearly 80% from the previous day. This combination is quite subtle: buying pressure is rising, but forced selling pressure is ebbing. Let's first look at the positive side. The sharp drop in liquidations means a lot of high leverage has been cleared, making the market lighter and easier to recover with some support; the increase in net inflows indicates that funds are willing to buy during the volatility rather than just waiting for lower prices. Emotionally, this is a small step from panic contraction toward tentative warming. If BTC holds steady, ETH and some high-beta altcoins will have the foundation to follow the rally. However, I wouldn't interpret this as a full-blown return of risk appetite. The net inflow data comes from a rolling window of fund distribution and does not equal a single large purchase by any institution or exchange; it can be used as a reference but should not be overhyped. More importantly, fewer liquidations might simply mean that people are temporarily afraid to add leverage and are still in a wait-and-see mood; if prices fail to break higher, this newly returned capital could easily turn into new selling pressure. Also, the fact that spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year still hangs over the market, indicating that medium- to long-term allocation funds are still... People who treat satellite constellations like skyscrapers fear not that the renderings aren't flashy enough, but that the load-bearing walls haven't passed inspection before pre-selling the units. In my eyes, the Blue Bird satellite deployment by this satellite communications company is not a launch news story, but a milestone inspection before the main structure is topped out. The Q3 earnings call will review not whether the revenue numbers look good, but whether the entire construction organization plan can be implemented: whether the mobile network partners' interfaces have been properly reserved, whether the link budget for direct-to-terminal services has passed real load testing, whether commercial revenue has shifted from renderings to measurable progress payments, and whether cash burn is still like the daily crane rental fee on a construction site.
The biggest fear for satellite internet is the illusion of a "lightweight structure." Every kilogram in orbit must be balanced by launch costs and cash reserves; each additional Blue Bird satellite changes the load distribution of network coverage. Direct-to-terminal is not as simple as adding a glass panel to the facade; it involves cutting holes and threading beams through the existing mobile network's load-bearing walls, requiring structural reinforcement. Operator cooperation is the column grid, commercial revenue is the curtain wall, and cash flow is the concrete curing period—if curing is inadequate, the formwork cracks upon removal. The US stock market's mapped asset $xAVGO is more like adding a transparent curtain wall to a remote asset: smooth trading, visually appealing, but seismic ratings must be recalculated according to the original structure. Market linkage is not about price matching but about whether the underlying asset's construction progress can support the valuation floor price.
If the quarterly report only talks about population coverage without discussing per-satellite throughput, per-user cost, and reusable nodes in partner contracts, it's like providing only facade drawings without structural calculations. The real commercial inflection point is when the Blue Bird constellation moves from the "demonstration phase" to "standard floor construction," partner contracts become standard details, and cash flow shifts from pure investment to rhythmic progress payments. Cash burn is not just a financial term; it's the crane rental fee on the construction site—stopping even one day is a hard cost. In this earnings call, I will review it like inspecting the core tube of a supertall building: whether vertical load transfer is continuous, whether commercial revenue has real footing, and whether partners have properly reserved interfaces. If these milestones are still connected by concepts, then this satellite is just a decorative frame hanging in orbit—when the wind blows, the first to sound is not the curtain wall but the hollow drum.Capital Flow: ETFs Are Systematically Withdrawing, Whales Only "Partially Replenishing"
ETFs—About $1.28 billion outflow this month, IBIT is the main source of withdrawals
The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $411.9 million on Friday, marking the second consecutive trading day of withdrawals. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT redeemed $403 million, only partially offset by Fidelity's FBTC inflow of $42.8 million. Since November, ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $1.28 billion, with only Wednesday recording a single-day net inflow this month. The net outflow over the past 7 days is about $1.1 billion, with IBIT as the main source.
This is not "churning" but a systematic reduction of positions through institutional channels. The return of ETF buying is the core premise for the sustainability of the rebound, and currently, this premise is not met.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Bitcoin mining difficulty hasn't broken a record for 374 days. The first reaction might be that miners have fled? Quite the opposite, the hash rate just returned to 1 ZH/s in late October, the first time in eight months.
It's not the miners who left, but the miners' money. Riot sold $750 million worth of Bitcoin, Hut 8 sold $250 million, Keel emptied its $192 million treasury and turned to AI data centers.
Below $76,000, the coins mined aren't enough to cover electricity costs, so who would stubbornly hold on?
So don't take the difficulty plateau as a sign that the chain is dying; it's more like miners voting with their feet.On the radar echo, a warm cyclone named Moderna suddenly erupted with a strong echo in the third quarter—revenue surged by 29%, tearing apart the loss vortex from the same period last year, with net profit flipping from a negative 200 million to a positive 162 million. This is not an ordinary short-term clear sky; it is a mid-level warm advection pushing the entire profit curve upward.
From a forecaster's perspective, last year's loss of about 200 million was like persistent low clouds, suppressing market visibility; this year, revenue accelerated to 1.313 billion, and the cost-side subsidence narrowed, allowing the 162 million net profit to shine like sunlight. More crucially, the actual pressure measurement shows: the full-year revenue growth guidance was raised from a maximum of 10% to 15%-25%, equivalent to an overall uplift of 500 hPa geopotential height, with the warm ridge stronger and wider than previously forecast.
But don't mistake a single quarter of strong convection for a climate shift. Moderna's revenue structure remains seasonal, with vaccine demand like coastal precipitation—arriving quickly and retreating just as fast. The real observation point is whether the gross margin dew point continues to decline and whether operating cash flow visibility can withstand the next cold front. The loss of about 200 million last year versus a net profit of 162 million this year, a reversal of nearly 360 million, is explosive convection, not a climate state; it requires confirmation by positive vorticity advection for more than two consecutive quarters.
Looking at XAVGO's peripheral circulation: the linkage of US stock Token targets is not the main rainband but more like the spiral rainbands on the periphery of a typhoon. When Moderna's earnings report releases latent heat like a thunderstorm cell, the risk appetite pressure gradient steepens briefly, causing a southerly wind burst in XAVGO's market, with increased volume and narrowed spreads; however, the main cyclone remains on the US stock market side, and XAVGO is only caught in the peripheral circulation. If the US Treasury yield's dry cold air mass moves south, the peripheral rainband can be cut off at any time, and the linkage will shift from convection to divergence.
Currently, the monitoring station's 3D wind field shows: a 29% revenue growth is a low-level jet, net profit turning positive 162 million is a boundary layer emergence, and the upward guidance of 15%-25% is geopotential height rising. All three align, indicating Moderna's short-term strong convection is organized; but organized convection is most vulnerable to sudden vertical wind shear changes—any single quarter's vaccine shipment rhythm, inventory replenishment, or exchange rate fluctuations can fragment this warm zone. XAVGO's linkage window is not in the earnings numbers themselves but in the market's pricing of "sustained turnaround": once pricing shifts from event-driven to trend-driven, the peripheral circulation will quickly weaken.
There is also a weak echo on the radar: if XAVGO follows with volume expansion, it only indicates peripheral moisture conditions meet the standard, not that the main rainband is moving north. My professional judgment: Moderna's warm front has passed, but whether it will be short-term clear skies or a sustained high-pressure ridge after passage depends on the movement speed of next quarter's revenue cloud system; XAVGO's peripheral spiral rainband is approaching the market, with a wind shear window of only three trading days, after which it will either merge into the main rainband or be cut off by dry cold air. #modernaq3returnstoprofitThe latest close was $835, a single-day rebound of 3.55%, but it has dropped 27% over the past week. The intraday high reached 912, the low 816, with a nearly $100 range, indicating that neither bulls nor bears have convinced the other. The earnings report is indeed ridiculously strong: quarterly revenue of 11 billion, a year-over-year increase of 378%, a gross margin of 85%, and net profit of 8.1 billion. Data center business revenue has nearly multiplied by 17 times. But the market's concern is not whether it is currently profitable, but whether the 85% gross margin signals a cyclical peak. The history of storage chips has repeatedly taught us: when gross margins reach this level, it often means the turning point is near. Another variable is the 8-for-1 stock split effective November 20. The split does not change market capitalization, but against the backdrop of the stock price falling from 2354 to 835, it is easily interpreted as a "high-level market cap management" move rather than a pure positive. So the current situation is very clear: fundamentals tell you "I'm cheap," technicals tell you "Don't catch a falling knife." $900 is the first resistance above; it touched 912 on Friday but was pushed back, indicating real selling pressure. The short-term support zone is between 780 and 800; if broken, look to 700. My view is simple: before the stock split takes effect, I won't make market decisions. Wait until around November 20 when the chip structure reshuffles, and see if $900 can be reclaimed; that is more meaningful than guessing the bottom now. No need to watch over the weekend; it won't run away. #闪迪 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% This non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations across the board: new jobs, wages, and unemployment rate all strengthened, previous values were revised up, the market immediately raised the December rate hike expectations, the dollar surged, and risk assets came under pressure.
I think the single-month data is just a pulse and can't directly determine the big trend; the real core is still to watch the CPI on the 10th.
The market also shows this: the news triggered only a sharp drop, not a sustained crash, with significant capital divergence. Don't chase the dip. Next, just focus on inflation and key support levels.Bitcoin mining difficulty hasn't refreshed its all-time high for 374 days. The peak stayed at 155.97T on October 29, 2025, and every adjustment since then hasn't surpassed it, exceeding the 364 days during the 2011 crash period.
The pattern is also different. In June 2026, difficulty dropped to 124.93T, a single drop of 10.09%, about 20% below the peak. Then in October, two increases of 5.92% and 5.54% pulled it back to 148.36T, just 4.9% shy of the record. The seven-day hashrate returned to 1 ZH/s in late October, after nearly eight months below that level.
Difficulty not breaking the peak doesn't mean the network is weakening. Blocks are still produced every ten minutes, and hashrate is still rising. The mechanism is that difficulty is pushed by hashrate; now that hashrate has returned but difficulty hasn't caught up, it indicates new machines are more efficient, or the incremental hashrate is being drawn away by other sectors.
Mining companies' ledgers are more direct. Riot sold $750 million worth of Bitcoin, Hut 8 sold $250 million, Keel cleared $192 million from its treasury, Terawulf and IREN shifted collateral to AI. BTC is slightly below $76,000, a price level that can't sustain expansion.
In the short term, looking at the adjustment on November 13, another 3.7% drop is expected. The drop gives miners a breather, but the drop itself also indicates some are still shutting down.
One detail: hashrate returned to 1 ZH/s, but difficulty is still suppressed—where did the extra hashrate go?As of November 6, Eastern US time, DOGE spot funds have had zero inflows or outflows for 18 consecutive trading days
This does not mean institutions are waiting on the sidelines to buy the dip
The cumulative net inflow is only about $15.05 million, with net assets around $11.92 million
This accounts for about 0.10% of the market cap — being inactive for so long seems more like no one is using it, rather than holding back orders
$DOGEOn November 6, the U.S. stock market lost about $3 trillion in market value in a single day. This was not an ordinary pullback but a cross-asset liquidity squeeze. $BTC had already been dragged down by news of sell-offs from Trump-related media, leaving risk assets with almost nowhere to hide. What is truly worrisome is the pattern of the decline: the Nasdaq has fallen 11.9% from its peak, officially entering a technical correction; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.5% in one day, marking its largest single-day drop since March 2020; the three major indices simultaneously recorded their worst performance since April. Semiconductors are the pricing core of this AI narrative; their initial collapse indicates that funds are not rotating but deleveraging. $SNDK dropped to around $800, serving as a sample of high-valuation stocks being prioritized for liquidation amid liquidity contraction. The mainstream market narrative still interprets this decline as a "normal breath after an overextension," but I believe the crowd underestimates its transmission path. Margin pressure on the stock side will transmit through market makers' balance sheets to the crypto market. The pullbacks of $BTC and $ETH are not independent events but two ends of the same liquidity chain. When high-beta sectors like semiconductors lead the decline, crypto assets find it difficult to have independent rallies, and the elasticity of highly volatile assets like $SOL and $HYPE will also be suppressed. In the medium term, tightening expectations have not been fully priced in. "Don't rush to catch a falling knife" fits the current structure better than "bottom fishing." The real confirmation signal is not in the rebound magnitude but in volume: if the semiconductor index shows a volume contraction after a volume-driven sell-off, it will indicate that deleveraging is nearing completion.The difficulty hasn't hit a new high in 374 days
Don't be misled by the chain.
Reports say mining difficulty hasn't broken a record in 374 days, but I don't directly use miners' performance as a gauge for coin price. Spot price is $75,906, 24-hour low is $74,888.
Tonight I'll separate the two charts first.
$BTC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Bitcoin is 9 weeks away from a signal that has fired only once in its history.
X
It's the weekly death cross, when the 50-week moving average falls below the 200-week.
The only time it ever happened was February 2023, with Bitcoin at $24K.
Everyone screamed bear market, and Benjamin Cowen's post about it pulled over a million views.
The bottom was already in three months earlier at $15.5K.
One year after that death cross, Bitcoin was trading at $52K. Seeing "7 times all dropped," my heart still skipped a beat 😰. A study cited by PANews states that since 2016, in the 7 scenarios where the Federal Reserve paused and then resumed rate hikes, Bitcoin recorded a decline within 30 days after the hike, with a median drop of 2.4%. For office workers investing only with spare money, this kind of news really tests one's mindset.
My judgment is: this is a risk warning leaning bearish, not a script that guarantees the next drop. I won't bet on direction just because of "0 wins and 7 losses." The sample size is only 7, and the chronological order does not mean the decline was entirely caused by rate hikes; ignoring other market factors easily overestimates this pattern.
Another point that makes me cautious is that the median drop is not the maximum drawdown, much less the loss ceiling. If resuming rate hikes tightens the funding environment, I speculate that risk asset sentiment may be under pressure, but the magnitude and duration remain uncertain. Those afraid of volatility can't just take 2.4% to reassure themselves.
I prefer to first confirm the actual implementation of policies, then check whether my position affects my life and if I have enough emergency funds. Spare money is not money that can be lost casually. Facing such historical records, what percentage of account drawdown can you endure while still being able to work and sleep normally?#US Crypto Regulation: "CLARITY Act" Progress Stalled, 401(k) Rules Enter Final Review
The boss has something to say
I came across this crypto regulation news with two contrasting lines: The bad news is that the "CLARITY Act" is stuck in the Senate, and House Democrats are discussing a new plan to transfer some crypto business originally under the CFTC to the SEC, enforcing through regulation instead of legislation; the good news is that the Labor Department has submitted rules to the White House for final review to expand alternative asset investments in 401(k) retirement plans, with digital asset-related products also under discussion.
My interpretation is: This is the real tone of crypto regulation after the midterm elections—clear legislation is gone, but the door to include digital assets in retirement accounts is opening. If 401(k) plans can legally buy BTC-related products, that represents a trillion-dollar long-term incremental pension fund; however, SEC's expanded authority means higher compliance costs. In the short term, regulatory direction is unclear, so the market won't chase highs just because of 401(k); in the long term, pension fund allocation is a stronger incremental story than ETFs.
BTC current price is about 74,800, sideways on Saturday. My approach: regulatory news is a slow variable and won't affect tonight's position; 75,000 remains resistance, looking down to 73,000. Waiting for Monday's US stock market open and ETF net flow data before deciding direction. Regulatory matters like this are to be watched over a year, not a day.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $ZEC AKE dropped from 0.039 to 0.0019, then pulled back to 0.0060 in two days.
This is not a successful bottom-fishing; it's leverage swapping hands.
From 0.039 on 10-23 to a low of 0.001877 on 11-05.
A 95.2% drop in 13 days.
All-time high was 0.1467, now down −95.9%.
30-day drop of 79.3%.
At first, I only looked at the price, but later realized the position size is what matters.
During the crash days, the long-short account ratio stayed between 1.7 and 2.2.
Two-thirds were long, yet the price kept falling.
The longs got buried.
On 11-06, the ratio flipped to 0.72, with shorts in the majority.
That day the price rose +78.19%, and the next day another +53.57%.
The shorts took over the same baton.
Now at 0.0060.
Long-short ratio is 0.84, with shorts slightly more.
Funding rate +0.005%, slightly positive.
Don't forget the structure.
Total supply is 100 billion tokens, with only 22.8% circulating.
Fully diluted is 601 million, market cap 137 million, a 4.4x difference.
77% is still locked up.
Some in the community say it’s a "free fall."
$AKE
It rose nearly 2.5 times in two days, with both buyers and shorts still in. $IWM
Employment is good, so why might small-cap stocks still lag?
The latest U.S. employment report shows an unemployment rate of 4.1% in October. This supports the view that the economy remains resilient but does not eliminate financing pressures on small businesses.
Small-cap companies typically rely more on external financing and domestic demand. Stable sales can improve operations, but refinancing maturing debt at higher interest rates may also erode profit growth.
I focus on earnings revisions, interest burden, and credit spreads. If demand holds and financing conditions improve, there is a stronger basis for a catch-up rally; if strong employment instead prolongs high interest rates and companies have weak cash flow, good economic data may not necessarily translate into stock price gains.Retail investors are panic selling, while smart money is frantically picking up bloodied chips While others are selling off, they dropped another 140 million. There’s a smart money that, three hours ago, directly took out 19.62 million USD and swept 8,773 ETH on-chain. The average price was 2236. You think they’re stubbornly catching a falling knife? Check out this address’s track record. When the market crashed sharply in March this year, they precisely bottomed out 7,543 coins at 2048, almost Nonfarm payrolls exploded! The December rate hike is really on shaky ground this time 🔥
October's nonfarm payrolls surged to 165,000, while expectations were only 65,000–70,000, with the previous two months revised up by 84,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, wages rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, showing a very strong labor market 💪
Once the data came out, the probability of a December rate hike jumped from about 70% to 77%–81%. The 2-year US Treasury yield briefly rose 7 basis points to 4.54%, the dollar surged to 102.2, and gold plunged nearly $60 to around 4029.82 📉 As rate hike expectations heat up, non-yielding assets take the hit first.
But don’t just look at the headline. Morgan Stanley said the unemployment rate decline is accompanied by a rise in labor force participation, so there’s no serious overheating; Huatai also mentioned that the market’s pricing for cumulative rate hikes by the end of 2027 only increased by 5 basis points to 50 basis points, showing restraint ⚖️
$BTC $ETH $UNI
There are also concerns: forced part-time jobs increased by 339,000 to 4.84 million, U-6 rose to 7.9%, and long-term unemployment still accounts for 27.6%. So this is not a "crazy rate hike" scenario, but the December hike is moving from high probability to near certainty, with the path ahead still data-dependent 👀#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, posted a video: controlling a model car via a mobile phone interface. The accompanying explanation is that Tether's tech stack will support Bluetooth.
Many people's first reaction is, how does a stablecoin issuer suddenly get into remote-controlled cars? My understanding is that the focus of this video is not the car itself, but the fact that "the phone directly connects to a physical device."
The battlefield for stablecoins in recent years has been on-chain: how much to issue, on which chain, how fast the clearing is. But the real last mile of payment has always been stuck on "you have to open the app first, have internet first, scan a code first." If the Bluetooth route works, it means bypassing the network for the segment from device to wallet, solving it with near-field direct connection.
The role change behind this is even more noteworthy. Tether used to be just the issuer; now it is moving toward the position of "infrastructure provider," sinking from on-chain down to the device end. The scale of $USDT is already so large that simply competing by issuing more is not very meaningful; drilling into scenarios is where the growth lies.
Of course, a demo video is still far from a product. What Bluetooth can transmit, how authorization is done, how to prevent double-spending offline—none of these questions are answered in the video.
I want to leave you with one point: if wallets can really communicate with nearby devices via Bluetooth, the first thing to be rewritten might not be crypto trading, but the whole offline payment system.$ZEC is a highly volatile box range compressed by 1,385 for a whole month (1,110–1,390). The NU7 upgrade was realized on 11-05. On 11-06, the seventh attempt to break 1,388 failed and fell back the same day—this is a typical "good news fully priced + false breakout." The current price at 1,276 is right above the box center at 1,250, a position neither up nor down, not an entry point. Trading rating: Wait and see (bearish bias, but do not chase shorts) Strategy positioning: Edge trading of the box, avoid the middle Core reference: Current price 1,275.68 | Upper edge 1,355–1,390 | Lower edge 1,210–1,250 | Invalid line 1,110 1,385 was tested seven times but not broken → This is not a "consolidation breakout," it is chips being repeatedly distributed at the same position. On 11-06, it surged to 1,388 but closed at 1,323 that day (a 4.7% pullback), then dropped to 1,273 on 11-07, confirming the false breakout. $ZEC capital and sentiment: Catalysts have been exhausted 1. NU7 upgrade = realized good news On 11-05, mainnet activated NU7: block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, Sprout pool closed This was the only dated catalyst for ZEC in the past month Price path: pulled up to 1,388 before the upgrade (11-06) → dropped back to 1,273 two days after the upgrade A dated positive event, once the date passes, it turns negative.A proposed tokenized U.S. stock trading venue has updated its public objection list. Apple, Meta, Palantir, S&P Global, Corning, and AMD have appeared on the newly added list. The total number of companies objecting has reached 67. According to CoinDesk's statistics on the same day, among the initially selected 62 listed companies, about 90%, or 56 companies, have already submitted written objections. The companies not yet on the objection list are only Strategy, Circle, Robinhood, Securitize, BitGo, and another large crypto-listed company. All six are crypto-related companies. This is not a vote but a veto right. According to the innovation exemption arrangement given by the U.S. securities regulator to such venues, the venue must notify the issuer in writing of the third party's plan to tokenize a particular stock. The issuer then has 30 calendar days to submit a written objection. Once the objection takes effect, the token of that stock cannot be listed on this venue. The venue must include the objecting companies in the public list within five business days, so the public list will be later than the actual decision. The original design intention was to trade U.S. stock tokens around the clock, settled in stablecoins, matching through an automated market-making pool rather than a traditional order book. After the list has been reduced to its current state, the stocks that can actually be launched are most likely only insiders from the crypto industry. The large-cap technology, banking, retail, and industrial stocks originally intended to be covered have mostly been blocked by the issuers themselves. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange also participated in this joint venture venue. The co-chairman said at a press conference the previous week that companies outside the list actively reached out$SNDK 1400 was the price 8 days ago, with an intraday high of 1,421.1 on 10-28.
Now at 838, it needs to rise 67% to get back to 1400.
10-29 −6.1%, 10-30 −9.7%.
11-04 −9.2%, 11-05 −21.3%, lowest at 794.
In seven trading days, it has dropped about 44%.
At first glance, seeing 794, I thought I was mistaken.
The drop is not due to the earnings report.
The earnings report came out on 10-29, with revenue of 11.03 billion.
Data center revenue increased 61% quarter-over-quarter, gross margin 85.1%.
The numbers look good, yet it dropped the next day.
The reason lies in the voting results.
The Democratic Party took both chambers and won several governorships.
They promised strict regulation on data center construction.
Expectations for AI infrastructure were crushed, storage being high beta, fell the hardest.
The contradiction is here.
PE is 6.72, Forward PE 3.41, average price 2,023.
But the stock price is only 838.
The reason it's cheap is not poor performance, but the market betting that policies will strangle AI infrastructure.
Whether 1400 can be reached again, I won't guess.
Here are two reference points:
52-week range is 183 to 2,354, a 67% move is considered normal fluctuation.
But it depends on whether policies loosen first or earnings can't hold up.
There will be a 1-for-8 stock split on 11-20. Farside's Friday data is out: US spot $BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of $411.9 million, with IBIT alone withdrawing $403 million, while FBTC actually saw an inflow of $42.8 million; from November 2 to 6, the total outflow was about $1.28 billion, with IBIT experiencing net outflows for six consecutive trading days. The $ETH spot ETF also had an outflow of $93.3 million on the same day.
The market hasn't collapsed: OKX spot BTC is currently around 75,890, touched 76,251 at 4 PM but was pushed back, 24h high/low is 76,251 / 74,888; ETH is about 2,241. TRdesk reports that across 12 exchanges in the past 24h, BTC liquidations totaled about $50.9 million, with longs accounting for 83%, which is much calmer compared to Friday's liquidation wave.
My view is that leverage is no longer the main selling pressure; the pressure is on the ETF side. If outflows don't stop after the US stock market opens next Monday, the 75,000 level will be hard to hold, so don't rush to buy yet.
$BTC $ETHIf this round of oil prices stabilizes, will funds flow back to $BTC first, or to the US stock market first?
It depends. If it's a gradual easing like now, half-talked and slowly worked out, the first wave of capital return will definitely be to Nasdaq tech stocks. Oil prices fall, inflation concerns cool down, US Treasury yields decline, and public and index allocation funds prioritize returning to US stocks, which is the main reservoir for orthodox risk assets.
Bitcoin belongs to the secondary market phase; incremental funds will only overflow after the US stock market shows risk appetite. Plus, crypto itself currently faces a lot of bearish pressure, making it hard to absorb large funds first.
But if Qatar's plan is implemented directly and the Strait of Hormuz confirms the resumption of navigation, that would be an unexpectedly major positive. BTC's 24/7 trading and short-term leveraged funds will rush in first, pulling up a wave, while true long-term allocation funds will still prioritize US stocks.
The worst-case scenario is if the oil price drop is not due to peace talks but market pricing a recession. Even if crude oil falls, funds will flow into bonds, and both US stocks and Bitcoin will be under pressure.
For us, we can use the status of Hormuz shipping and US Treasury yields as anchors. If yields decline and the strait's navigation is confirmed, Nasdaq will move first, then BTC can be laid out simultaneously.
Short-term news will tug back and forth; don't let single-day rises or falls mislead your rhythm. To follow along in sync, visit the homepage research community.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $SNDK $CL $SPCX Musk's ability to paint a grand vision is truly top-notch, directly proclaiming revenue will exceed 500 billion by 2027. The core trump card has changed; SpaceX is no longer just a contractor relying purely on government orders. By tightly partnering with Anthropic, it has carved out a new path in space computing power when terrestrial data centers are choked by regulations.
$SOXL But behind the huge profits lies a big risk. A single AI client contributes one-third of the revenue, meaning it is deeply tied to the current most frenzied large model cycle. Now that AI financing is shrinking overall, if the major client runs out of funds, this high-growth myth could be discounted at any time. The story is enticing, but don't get carried away; keep a close eye on that AI giant's cash flow trump card.PUMP has experienced two consecutive hours of volume-increased decline, and it's still unclear if the buyers are strong enough to take over.
On OKEx spot from 20:00 to 21:00, about 556,000 USDT was traded, which is 4.1 times the average of the previous 12 completed hours. The closing price dropped from 0.003823 to 0.003787. The previous hour also saw about 516,000 USDT traded. Volume has been high for two hours, but the price has fallen hour by hour.
I tend to first observe whether the selling pressure can be absorbed. There are about 244,000 USDT buy orders within 1% below the price, higher than about 131,000 USDT sell orders at the same distance above, but orders can be withdrawn and cannot be directly considered support. Contract open interest slightly decreased in the most recent complete hour, which is insufficient to prove that new shorts are aggressively increasing positions.
If the next completed hour sees volume shrink but the price still breaks below 0.00377, the support explanation weakens further; if volume increases and the price recovers to 0.00387, then we can see if the sell orders above are truly being filled.
$PUMP $TRUMP Negative news: After the Democrats took control of both chambers, the valuation of the family coin is still being pulled down
After the Democrats took over both the House and Senate, what reason does TRUMP have to withstand the political discount?
OKEx current price 1.174, 24h -3.37%, volume about 7.45 million, intraday dropped from a high of 1.279 to around a low of 1.17
CoinMarketCap and TokenPost summary: After the Democrats swept the midterm elections on 11/3, Trump-related concept coins such as TRUMP, WLFI, MELANIA led the decline. TRUMP once fell about 17% in a single day to around 1.30, even though BTC was still rebounding at that time
The core issue is not slogans, but expectations of congressional investigations: The Democratic agenda specifically targets the Trump family’s crypto projects and conflicts of interest. Related legislative ethics clauses will also block the family coin narrative, sharply cutting the political brand premium
Coupled with this week’s tech stock collapse and about $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations, low-liquidity political meme coins have fallen deeper than mainstream coins, and are still digesting the tail end of the election impact.How do those who truly make big money in the crypto circle actually do it? After studying several successful cases with public trading records, I found that their ways of making money are actually quite different.
1. Ansem: Making early discoveries of Meme narratives
On December 1, 2023, he bought his first WIF with $472 at about $0.0003 per token, and added another $185 eight days later. This was during the market recovery phase after the 2022 bear market ended, when the Solana Meme trend was just beginning.
In April 2024, WIF peaked near $4.9, about 4 months after his initial purchase.
But he didn’t just hold on blindly. On-chain statistics show he invested about $2.14 million in total, sold about $2.85 million, realizing a profit of about $804,000, with another unrealized profit of about $745,000. Note: The 16,000x figure is the ratio of the initial purchase price to the highest price, not his actual realized gains.
2. Paulo.sol: Capturing the main Meme uptrend through trend trading. He started buying BONK on November 11, 2023, began buying WIF on December 4, and started trading BODEN on March 6, 2024. He didn’t blindly chase every new coin but increased his buying power after observing upward trends in tokens, repeatedly trading by buying low and selling high. As of April 26, 2024, on-chain tracking reports show he has realized cumulative profits of about $22.83 million across BONK, WIF, and BODEN tokens.Weekend watch: Bitcoin is currently around $75,878, trading narrowly between $74,888 and $76,378 today. The $75,000 level is still holding, but the real line is at $75,600 — that's the low on election night and near the 50-week moving average. If it can't hold this, it will be the fifth consecutive week of decline, closing below the 200-day moving average. Interestingly, Strategy holds 849,000 BTC at an average cost of about $75,451, and the current price is only about 0.6% higher, meaning the whole market is watching the same line. After the non-farm payrolls, the probability of a December rate hike is nearly 80%, with the Fear & Greed Index at 25, indicating extreme fear. This weekend, the focus is on whether $75,600 can hold; only a recovery above $77,700 will signal a breather $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 1. Core Conclusion This is a financial report showing "slightly below-expected profits but capital allocation far exceeding expectations." Underwriting profit dragged down by -43%, but the $9.6 billion buyback (market expectation $1.64 billion, 5.9 times) is the real key information—the management is voting with real money at a historic high. The fundamentals provide reasons to "buy on dips," but the technicals (RSI 73.6 + volume surge and pullback on 11-05) clearly warn "do not chase the breakout." $BRKB Earnings Rating: Neutral to Bullish Trading Rating: Enterable, but only on dips, do not chase breakouts Key Reference Prices: Current price 570.89 | First support 559.6–561.0 | Second support 543.7–545 | First resistance 579.09 | Second resistance 586.30 2. Q3 Earnings Breakdown (2026Q3 vs 2025Q3, unit: million USD) Item - 2026Q3 - 2025Q3 - YoY Commentary Operating Profit 12,705 - 13,485 -5.8% Operating EPS (B) 5.94, market expectation 5.91, slight beat Net Profit 22,112 - 30,796 -28.2% Dragged by investment gains/losses, noise items Investment Gains/Losses 9,407 - 17,311 -45.7% Includes $7.7 billion unrealized gains, not reflecting operations Insurance Underwriting 1,352 - 2,369 -42.9% Biggest drag, expected 1,470, missed Insurance Investment Income 2,7What will BTC do after being selected? Let's first look at the two historical instances.
On November 6, 2018, the weekly close was 6,450.
One month later it was 3,545, a drop of 45%.
One year later it was 9,039, an increase of 40%.
On November 8, 2022, the weekly close was 16,330.
One month later it was 17,085, an increase of 4.6%.
One year later it was 37,064, an increase of 127%.
Putting the two together, it looks like "long-term gains after selection."
I originally thought the short term would be the same, but after reviewing the data, I found the opposite.
One time it dropped 45%, the other time it rose 4.6%.
The difference is not in the selection, but in what was happening around it.
In 2018, it hit the last phase of a bear market, with December being the lowest point of the entire cycle.
In 2022, it coincided with FTX, and three days after selection the exchange ran into trouble.
So selection is not the main variable, just a point on the calendar.
What really determines the movement in the following three months is what else happened at the same time.
Back to the probability issue.
With only two samples, you can't calculate probability.
If someone gives you a "high probability of increase" number, that number is made up, not calculated.
Now it's 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, pressing down 4.7% overhead.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
Do you think this time there might also be a "side event" that hasn't been accounted for?
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 One detail that taught me a lesson this week: the entire process of $BTC dropping from above 80,000 back to 75,000, the OKX perpetual funding rate almost stayed at 0.01%. I checked the records: on November 4th, when it surged to 81,200, the rate was 0.01%. On the 5th, it dropped about 6% in one day (from 80,300 to a low of 75,558), and each settlement period was still around 0.01%. The real cooldown happened after the 6th; the 4 PM settlement today even turned negative at -0.0004%, while the price had been hovering around 76,000 for two days with a 24-hour volatility of only about 1.8%. My understanding is: 0.01% is the baseline, and most of the time it just indicates that longs are paying "normal interest," which doesn't mean there's no overheating, nor is it a safety signal. The rate turning negative often happens after the drop, so using it as a bottom-fishing signal can easily lag behind. Now I prefer to treat the funding rate as a "confirmation" rather than a "warning": first look at the price structure and key levels, like whether the 75,000 area holds, then use the funding rate to see if sentiment has caught up. Do you usually watch the funding rate? Do you use it for decision-making or just as a reference? $QQQ
Nasdaq rebound: how to distinguish between a correction and a trend recovery?
On November 6 during the US stock market session, a chip rebound drove the Nasdaq higher; this information reflects intraday conditions and cannot be directly interpreted as a sustained trend. After concentrated selling, short covering can naturally happen quickly.
Growth stocks face both profit-taking and interest rate constraints simultaneously. If the rebound only restores valuations without new profit evidence, its sustainability depends more on risk appetite.
I observe whether the subsequent rise spreads from hardware to software and other growth sectors. If breadth improves and profit downgrades stop, the correction is more credible; if the rebound is concentrated and then volume increases again with a pullback, it should continue to be assessed as a high-volatility environment.$SEI
Parallel execution is one of the more interesting approaches to improving blockchain performance. Sei uses this architecture to process compatible transactions more efficiently while supporting EVM applications. However, speed alone cannot guarantee ecosystem success. Developer retention, application quality, network security, and genuine user activity will ultimately determine whether its technical advantages create a lasting competitive position.To be honest, there are three questions I haven't understood these past few days.
How did BTC surge to 81,196 in one day and then drop back to 74,888 in two days?
Circle's earnings exceeded expectations, so why did its stock price fall by 10%?
SanDisk dropped 27% in three days, what is it falling over?
First, it rises fast and falls even faster.
On November 4, after the election results came out, BTC jumped from 75,736 to 81,196.
On November 5, it opened at 80,504, hit a low of 75,208, and closed at 76,088.
A 5.5% gain in one day was completely given back.
Second, Circle beat this quarter, but the market is looking at next year.
Revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, but CRCL fell from 75.22 to 67.58.
The USDC supply is still shrinking; a good quarter doesn't mean the supply is coming back.
Third, SanDisk's drop isn't about the earnings report.
SNDK fell from 1,145 to 838, a drop of nearly 27%.
Storage stocks are being hit by expectations of AI capital expenditures.
Putting these three things together sums up as: rises rely on news, falls rely on capital.
The position isn't easy either.
Current price is 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, 4.7% above.
MA200 is at 73,240, 3.5% below.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
$BTC $LIT missed its takeoff, now it can only be watched quietly land
The daily chart has completely broken below the long-term uptrend line, and the 1-hour chart shows a waterfall-like plunge, with the overall trend fully turning bearish. This slight rebound now is purely an oversold correction after a sharp drop, a typical downward consolidation.
The most critical issue is the underlying data: the long position ratio is as high as 65%! With such crowded retail holdings, the main force will never lift the price to help them break even. The most likely scenario is a weak rebound followed by continued selling pressure downward to test lower support levels, completely washing out these long holders. The overall trend is lost; control your impulses and patiently watch the show.Last night's market reaction was interesting. Despite negative headlines, Bitcoin only dipped toward $74,800, almost exactly matching the September correction low. Ethereum also held around $2,207 without breaking its previous low near $2,170. But I'm not convinced the bottom is in. Here's why I'm still cautious: 1. The rebound hasn't proven itself BTC has fallen from $88,000 to $75,000, while ETH dropped from $2,880 to $2,200. These prices naturally attract spot buyers looking for bargains. 2. Seeing this made me a bit confused: The US sanctioned 8 Canadian currency exchange companies, saying they helped Iran convert rials into crypto assets. When a country's money wants to flow out, it has to rely on a few small shops in another country to handle it; this chain is much more rustic than imagined.
What's even more interesting is that at the same time, the community is arguing about KOLs pushing products and cutting leeks. Outside, the exit is being blocked; inside, everyone is scrambling to be the exit. $BTC didn't drop, what fell was that little bit of trust.
Honestly, I don't know whether to say the regulators are too diligent or human nature is just too exploitable.Bitcoin market is declining, but Open Interest is growing against the trend!
According to Glassnode data, during the recent BTC price pullback, the open interest in Bitcoin derivatives increased by nearly $1.5 billion.
This indicates that even as market prices continue to fall, traders are still opening new leveraged positions, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
Notably, the continuous rise in OI during the decline may mean the market is accumulating more leverage risk. Once prices experience sharp fluctuations, forced liquidations of leveraged positions could further amplify market volatility.
Key points to watch next: BTC price trends, OI changes, and liquidation data.
Price decline and rising OI do not necessarily mean the market will continue to fall, but they do indicate accumulating risk.
Do you think this is bulls bottom-fishing, or bears adding to their positions?
#RocketLabQ3Neutron $BTC #USJobsBeatExpectations