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Last night, despite the news, there was no major drop; the lowest point only dipped to 74800, which is a very precise level, exactly the lowest point of the last upward correction in September. Ethereum $ETH only dipped to 2207, not even breaking the previous low of 2170. I judge that the recent drop was too steep, and at this price level, there are many people bottom-fishing spot positions. Indeed, who can resist a Bitcoin that fell from 88000 to 75000, and an Ethereum that dropped from 2880 toNear 75K, the whale who precisely bottomed and topped last cycle re-entered the market to buy 3,009 BTC
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元
In the last cycle, this whale bought 50,000 BTC at an average price of about $20,000 at the end of 2022, gradually selling from 2024 to early 2025, with total profits of about $2 billion. After being silent for more than a year, yesterday it directly bought 3,009 BTC near 75K.
Historical actions have proven this whale's judgment, and I don't think this re-entry is accidental.
Next, I judge that $BTC is very likely to consolidate and form a bottom near 75K in the short term, with a continued bullish outlook in the medium to long term.
Trading advice:
Spot can be accumulated in batches within the 74.5K–75.5K range, adding more if it falls below 74K.
For contracts, take light long positions near 75K, set stop loss at 73.8K, with targets at 77.5K–80K.
There is still some room to dip, but the overall direction is upward. Strictly control position size to avoid heavy exposure.I noticed $ONE was pumping this afternoon, and now looking at it, it has actually risen 32%! Is it still worth chasing?
The 24-hour trading volume is 6 million USD. With this depth, a few million can create this pattern, so don’t treat it as market movement but as an event.
I dug into the reasons behind it: Harmony proposed shutting down the Layer 1 mainnet that has been running for seven years, migrating ONE to Ethereum as an ERC-20 token, airdropping to qualified wallets, and the team is shifting entirely to focus on AI video remix economy. The block explorer will permanently close on November 18.
Compared to the last tenfold pump from 0.0006 to 0.0066, there are two differences: last time it was purely storytelling, this time there is a clear date and migration path, which looks like progress; but last time it jumped from the floor, this time there is a whole range of trapped positions from 0.0025 to 0.0066 overhead, and every rise is met with people selling to break even.
So, can you buy? I only analyze, not invest. But if someone doesn’t want to miss out, you can take a small amount as a lottery ticket. In August, a cross-shard vulnerability minted 3 trillion ONE out of thin air, the chain even rolled back, and now TVL is only 9,000 USD. This is no longer a valuation issue but whether this asset still exists. Once the explorer closes on November 18, the story ends and it’s a vacuum.
If you really want to play: spot trading, position small enough to lose everything without pain, unconditionally exit if it falls below 0.0015. But on contracts, a single spike can wipe you out.Regulatory side: FinCEN cuts off MEXC Global's access to the U.S. financial system — accusing about $16 billion in transactions related to sanctions evasion and other issues.
They are using Section 9714: prohibiting U.S. financial institutions from transmitting funds with it, covering both fiat and crypto. This is not an OFAC-style full asset freeze list; the boundaries are different.
It takes effect about 30 days after the Federal Register publication — before publication ≠ completely cut off. The key is whether the dollar clearing/U.S. capital channels can be touched, which determines liquidity placement more than slogans.
Confidence: High | Disclosure (U.S. Treasury/FinCEN). The order ≠ OFAC naming and freezing; effectiveness depends on the publication date. Are you focusing more on the channels or on following the blacklist? $BTC $BTC Last night, the non-farm payroll data was released, directly rewriting market expectations. New jobs added were 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised up by 84,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
After the data release, the market's bets on a December rate hike quickly rose, with the probability of a rate hike surging to around 80%. Interest rate futures weakened in tandem, and traders began to increase their bets on a rate hike.
But there is a contrast: the initial one-year inflation expectation for November was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.7%. Inflation expectations are declining, yet employment is exceptionally strong, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to continue focusing on inflation.
Another key point is that the U.S. now only needs to add about 40,000 jobs per month to match the growth of the working-age population. This balance point has significantly dropped from 150,000 in 2024. The core reasons for the falling unemployment rate are labor supply contraction, tightened immigration, and increased retirements. Federal Reserve officials themselves do not currently view employment as an inflation risk.
Strong employment drives up rate hike expectations, and low unemployment means the Federal Reserve does not need to worry excessively about a recession. This non-farm payroll report directly tilts the December rate balance toward a rate hike side [Bitcoin mining difficulty has been below its peak for 374 days, miners are losing business to AI]
$BTC mining difficulty has remained below its historical peak for 374 consecutive days, setting a new record. This reflects the ongoing pressure on mining profit margins: in June 2026, difficulty dropped to 124.93T, then rebounded to 148.36T by the end of October, still short of the all-time high of 155.97T.
Currently, the total network hash rate has returned to about 1,060 EH/s, but on November 6, miners earned only about $32.4 per PH per day. Competition is recovering, yet the revenue per mining machine has not improved accordingly. Electricity costs, equipment depreciation, and financing expenses are pushing out less efficient miners.
Mining company Keel Infrastructure disclosed in its latest financial report that it has shut down some Bitcoin mining farms in the U.S., shifting focus to building AI and HPC data centers. It also cleared its BTC treasury in Q3 and generally opts to sell newly mined Bitcoin immediately. Mining companies are reallocating power, land, and hash rate resources toward AI businesses with higher profit expectations.
This has a twofold impact on BTC: continuous selling by miners increases spot supply pressure, and some mining farms exiting will alter the network's hash rate competition landscape. However, hash rate is still recovering, and the industry has not collectively collapsed. More mining companies are recalculating the return on investment for mining. AI is becoming a new competitor for electricity and capital in Bitcoin mining, and this resource competition may be more worthy of long-term attention than mere price declines.$BTC net outflow of 416 million USD this year, broken down it's an inflow of 25.63 billion almost completely offset by an outflow of 26.05 billion
The money is basically just circulating in place
The "support" role of the ETF hasn't disappeared, but it's moving back and forth between funds rather than steadily flowing in one direction
The direct impact is that $BTC is struggling to hold near 76,000
24-hour liquidation is 218 million, with long positions accounting for 143 million. The price is supported, but the strength of the support is not concentrated
At this position, bets are continuously placed both up and down, and whichever side triggers, neither side will pass smoothly
If IBIT continues large redemptions and FBTC only sporadically replenishes, the rebound pressure at 76,500 will be hard to truly overcome
ETF money is still on the market, but it is no longer a unified buying force; rather, it's a group of funds each calculating their own moves and exchanging hands
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 The most fragile link is actually emotions, not price. Are you really sure this is the bottom now? BTC is back to 75,000, ETH around 2226, SOL holding at 90. More people are clearly asking "Can I bottom-fish?" behind the scenes, but I've been watching the funding rates for a long time, and I feel even calmer. Prices can deceive, but funding rates rarely do. True oversold conditions and reversals usually come with funding rates pushed to obvious negative values, shorts crowded to the extreme, and a short squeeze providing the fuel. Right now, the funding rate is just slightly positive, with no panic and no capitulation; the sentiment is as bland as plain water 🌙 What does this tell me? It looks more like a breather during a low-volume decline, not the bottom we should expect. The bottom never comes quietly; it has to carry a bit of bloodiness, stop losses getting swept clean, short positions squeezed to explosion, and funding rates red-hot—that's when the fuel is sufficient. Currently, the fuel is insufficient, so any ignition is just a fake firework. Looking at sector rotation makes it clearer. BTC is still holding decently in the high range, ETH is relatively weak, SOL is holding 90 but with limited bounce, and altcoin sentiment is even more lackluster. This structure indicates that risk appetite hasn't truly returned; everyone is just waiting for a reason, not scrambling for chips. There is, of course, a bullish path: once funding rates turn negative and shorts pile up, the rebound will be quick and sharp. But the risk is obvious—if sentiment remains so sluggish, sideways grinding will test patience more than a decline, and altcoins will be the first to break. Bottom-fishing has never been a speed contest; it's an endurance contest. The quick hands catch the falling knives, the patient ones pick up chips. I'd rather watch from the sidelines a bit longer than get caught in a slow bleed.I feel that this wave is not just a fake-out shakeout, but a real capital flight 😮💨
Compared to candlesticks, capital flow is a signal that deserves more caution.
One-hour capital data: BTC contracts net outflow of 132 million, spot market simultaneously outflow of 43.39 million; ETH contracts outflow of 39.31 million, but spot market quietly received 12.42 million; SOL is the weakest, with both contracts and spot outflowing a total of 24.39 million.
The interpretation is very clear: BTC sees leveraged longs and spot funds exiting simultaneously, no one is willing to actively take over; ETH, although it has a larger drop, already has funds quietly absorbing in the spot market; SOL’s selling pressure has not yet been fully released, short-term is weak.
Combined with the Nasdaq’s big drop and semiconductor sector collapse, this decline is not just a weakness in crypto but a synchronized de-risking of global risk assets.
Key supports: BTC 75,500–76,000, ETH 2200, SOL 88.
Chasing shorts now is easy to get slapped by a quick rebound, and bottom fishing lacks capital confirmation.
Don’t rush to guess the bottom yet; with such volatile market swings, controlling position size and being able to sleep peacefully is already a win. Today there was a rather awkward scene: on one side, the Qatari Prime Minister publicly said that the indirect talks between the US and Iran "have made great progress," while on the other side, Iranian media reported that two missiles hit Qeshm Island, with no official statement on the losses yet. On the same timeline, negotiations and fighting are happening simultaneously.
Actually, the negotiation track is not a single line but three: Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed set the tone that "a solution can be reached"; US Vice President Pence has been involved in indirect talks with Iran over the past two weeks; Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Munir has also been pulled into the communication chain. The simultaneous movement of these three lines indicates that the driving force is not coming from just one side.
Now looking at the fighting track. Iran proposed a seven-day plan in September with very specific conditions: lifting the port blockade, unfreezing assets, and reopening waterways. This plan has been rejected by Trump so far. With its biggest concession on the table but getting nothing in return, the motivation to create pressure outside the negotiation table has always existed.
On November 6, Qatar's Emir Tamim had a phone call with Trump, discussing easing tensions and promoting a comprehensive agreement. This call happened the day before the missile news—high-level officials are laying the groundwork while ground-level friction proceeds at its own pace.
The only real variable worth watching is whether working-level technical talks will start in the coming days. This is the threshold from statements to text. If this step cannot be reached, all the previous "great progress" is just atmosphere. For assets like $BTC, easing tensions is priced up step by step as the negotiation level rises. $BZ is the authentic commodity! Recently, oil prices have plummeted from $114 all the way down to $97, a 13% drop in a single week, breaking below the $100 mark! Why the crash? Progress in US-Iran negotiations in the Middle East, and the de-escalation of conflicts between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have drained all geopolitical premiums. On top of that, with the Democrats sweeping Congress, market expectations for global energy demand have cooled off, and hedge funds have cut their long crude positions by the largest margin since June. Now at $97, technically it's severely oversold; today's small rebound of 0.62% is a sign of stabilization. But brothers, don't rush to bottom-fish—oil prices depend on the Middle East's mood—when fighting breaks out, prices surge; when negotiations happen, prices plunge. The sideways movement at $97 indicates the market is waiting for the next catalyst. In the short term, $95 is a strong support; breaking below $90 could lead to $85; but if the Middle East stirs up trouble again, a bullish candle pulling back to $105 is not a dream. Using crude oil as a hedge is fine, but don't use high leverage to bet on direction!US October non-farm payrolls landed with an increase of 165,000 jobs, stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%😮💨
The stronger the economic resilience, the more the Fed delays rate cut expectations, with the dollar and US Treasury yields rising in tandem. This positive data for the real economy is actually bearish for the crypto space.
The real pressure is on liquidity: On November 6, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 411.9 million, marking two consecutive days of large-scale exits, with nearly 1.9 billion USD withdrawn over the past 7 trading days. While US tech stocks have at least seen an oversold rebound, incremental buying for BTC remains absent.
The current market is particularly conflicted: shorts just went through a wave of liquidations and dare not chase further, while bottom-fishing funds are unwilling to actively push prices up. The price looks stabilized, but volume is not keeping up.
This feels more like a brief breather after a big drop, not a reversal. A true stabilization signal requires ETF outflows to stop and volume to continuously expand. Before that, rebounds are easily cashed out by funds, causing choppy swings that shake out traders.
The most frustrating thing at this stage is not being wrong on direction, but repeatedly getting harvested by volatility. Caution is essential in trading. ETH rebound retraced, I still don't consider it stabilized.
Market status as of 11/7 23:04 Taipei time: ETH around 2,245, down about 8.4% from the 11/4 high of 2,450, only about 1.8% above the 11/5 low of 2,206.28; ETH/BTC around 0.0296, relative strength is also retreating.
ETF data as of 11/6: US spot ETH ETFs had net outflows for two consecutive days, with a total net outflow of $365.2 million in the first five trading days of November, with only one day of net inflow. One rebound does not prove sustained capital return.
I look at three conditions: daily chart holding above 2,206 and rising back above 2,300; ETF showing net inflows again, preferably ETHA turning positive; ETH/BTC rising back near 0.030. Until these are met, I still view it as low-level oscillation.
OWL AI is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform. Writing adjustment conditions as public, on-chain verifiable strategies, allowing the operator's actions to be compared against preset rules, is the transparency I focus on.
#ETH $ETH Two missiles hit Qeshm Island, Trump characterized it as a "small strike," and Iran immediately shot down an MQ-9 drone, yet gold prices fell 0.6% on Friday, closing near $4063. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The issue is not that safe havens are useless, but that the market has already priced in "peace" in advance. Look at three accounts: Brent April contracts at $88.42, July and later contracts below $84, oil prices fell about 13% to 16% this week, indicating funds are betting unilaterally on a quick end to the conflict. Negotiations have not landed. Iran demands the implementation of seven conditions first and no longer trusts US paper promises. The military pace is still advancing. Three aircraft carriers are expected to be in place by late November, and New York bank Levin also warned that the black swan of a prolonged Iran conflict has not been fully priced in. So safe havens are not absent, but they won't come in the "rush to gold on the day of the incident" manner. More likely, the market will reconcile the previously prepaid peace expectations. In terms of positions, it can be divided into three steps: First, separate tactical and strategic. Event pulses are suitable for watching the dollar and crude oil, with weekly volatility already reaching $19; strategic allocation is for gold, don't use short-term tools for long-term work. Second, buy gold on dips in batches, don't chase highs. Gold is now near $4063, with $4000 to $4020 below being a safer observation zone. Global central banks bought 321 tons of gold in Q3, a 42% year-on-year increase; interest rate suppression is a short-term pulse, central bank gold buying is a mid-term structure. Avoid chasing near $4100. Third, asPrice $BTC: 75,994.3$ 24-hour change rate is relatively stable.
The 4-hour chart shows weakness; the daily chart still maintains an upward trend. The EMA indicator on the daily chart has not yet reflected this trend.
On the closing price K-line, the retracement line slopes downward and is below the signal line. This indicator alone is insufficient to conclude a price trend reversal.
Support level 75,534.45: A daily close below this value will confirm the loss of support.Both H4 and D1 $SHIB are sloping downward. This is the context for interpreting the Bollinger Bands index.
Price SHIB: $0.000004514 with a slight decrease in the 24-hour change rate.
Support at 0.00000444: Closing below this value on H4 will confirm the loss of support.
According to the Bollinger Bands indicator, the daily closing price is within the range. A breakout supported by the closing price is needed to give a clearer signal. Both the 4-hour and daily charts show a bearish trend.$XLU
In a high interest rate environment, how do utilities maintain their appeal?
The resilience of U.S. employment means expectations for rapid easing lack direct confirmation. Utilities have relatively stable demand and require ongoing capital investment, so it's not just about dividend yield.
Expanding the grid and adding new power supply can increase the future asset base, provided regulators allow reasonable returns and projects can be commissioned on time. If financing costs rise first, cash returns may be delayed.
I observe capital expenditures, financing arrangements, and approved returns. Growth is steadier if project execution aligns with regulatory recovery; if investments increase but cannot be converted into revenue promptly, the defensive nature may not fully offset cash flow pressure.I've been watching the US stock market all week.
The Nasdaq dropped 3.4% this week, falling for the 4th consecutive week. On Thursday, due to the midterm election results, the market feared tighter AI regulations, and chip stocks were hit hard. On Friday, AMD rebounded 11%, while Nvidia only recovered 2.8%.
My view: This is a rebound after an oversell, not a bottom. With the strong non-farm payrolls, if Tuesday's CPI exceeds expectations again (month-over-month 0.3%), the rate hike expectations will only harden, and high-valuation chip stocks will take another hit.
What I'll do: I won't add positions over the weekend; I'll keep cash and wait for the data at 9:30 PM Tuesday, then decide whether to buy.
When the CPI comes out, do you think it will be above or below 0.3%?
This is not investment advice
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #USStocks #CPI #AI$ZEC Five little-known facts, each of which can explain why you lose money.
1. 100x leverage doesn't mean liquidation happens only if the price drops 1%, but rather liquidation occurs if it drops 0.5%.
100x means a 1% margin, but there are also maintenance margin and fees. BTC's maintenance margin rate is about 0.4%-0.5%, so the actual liquidation price is around -0.5%.
The same applies for 20x: it's not actually -5%, but about -4.5%.
The leverage's margin for error is even narrower than you think.
2. Fees can eat up half of your principal in a year.
Assuming you use 10% of your funds each time with 10x leverage, the nominal position equals your entire principal. The one-way fee is 0.05%, so opening and closing a position costs 0.1%.
Two trades a day equals 0.2%. Over 250 trading days, 50% of your principal goes to the exchange.
You lose to fees before you even lose to the market.
3. Funding rate is an invisible holding cost.
0.01% every 8 hours, three times a day, about 11% annually.
Long-term longs effectively pay an 11% "position tax" per year. Even if the market doesn't move, you're still losing.
4. Adding to a profitable position raises your average cost.
Buying 10,000 U at 10U, then adding another 10,000 U at 20U, your average price becomes 15U.
If the price pulls back 25%, you go from unrealized profit to unrealized loss.
Adding to a position amplifies both gains and costs simultaneously; it’s not a free way to boost profits After the major crash, the market entered a breathing period, but smart money did not rush to go long; instead, it quietly increased short bets.
$BTC 76,036: In the past 24 hours, it has repeatedly tugged between 75,000 and 76,000, with ETF single-day net outflows close to $400 million; smart money long positions are down to only 19%, nearly 80% betting on shorts, and the 80,000 mark has become a strong resistance.
$ETH 2,245: After hitting a high of 2,450 and being resisted, it fell back to daily support near 2,240. Although a whale just spent 19.7 million USDT to buy 8,775 ETH at an average price of 2,245, ETF continuous outflows and liquidation risks still suppress the rebound.
Summary: Leverage has been significantly cleaned up, but incremental ETF funds have not yet returned. The market is in a phase of "stock repair, incremental observation," with sideways consolidation and bottoming still the main theme. #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $1.28 billion withdrawn in one week, BTC still stands above $76,000.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $1.282 billion this week, with 4 out of 5 trading days showing net outflows.
On Friday alone, $412 million was withdrawn, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $403 million.
IBIT has cumulatively withdrawn $1.21 billion this week, with net outflows for 6 consecutive trading days.
However, Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $43 million on Friday, so not everyone is running.
On Thursday, BTC briefly fell below $75,000, hitting a low of about $74,800, the lowest since August.
Over $1 billion in liquidations occurred across the entire network within 24 hours.
I think money is moving out but the price hasn't collapsed, indicating that spot buyers are stepping in; the invalidation point is BTC closing below $75,000 on the daily chart, or IBIT having a single-day outflow exceeding $400 million again.
Choose one: With ETFs withdrawing $1.28 billion in a week, do you think institutions are taking profits or is bull market capital retreating?
$BTC $IBIT $FBTC
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
After a sharp plunge in US stocks, tech stocks rebounded, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%.
Although the Nasdaq market saw a technical rebound on Friday following a severe midweek sell-off, the weekly chart recorded a rare "four consecutive declines." From the perspective of technical patterns and macro-level dynamics, the Nasdaq is engaged in a critical defense battle at the lower boundary of its mid-term upward channel. The market's main logic has shifted from unilateral bullishness to a "high volatility, high differentiation defensive game."
Goldman Sachs expects cloud giants' AI CapEx to reach $800 billion by 2026, but at least $300 billion in annual AI revenue is needed to justify its financial rationality. The market's tolerance for giants blindly burning money has been exhausted. To make matters worse, after the midterm elections, states like Texas, Ohio, and Georgia have tightened approvals for power, water resources, and environmental reviews for large AI data centers, causing some projects to be suspended or delayed, directly hitting the hardware expansion expectations on the weekly level.
Following the midterm elections, market expectations for accelerated diplomatic resolutions in the Middle East have risen, leading to an over 8% plunge in crude oil prices. If oil prices continue to decline, it could ease inflation concerns and lower long-term US Treasury yields, providing breathing room for the Nasdaq.
Waiting for signals next week $UNI
Uniswap helped establish decentralized token swapping as a major component of crypto's financial infrastructure. Its long-term position depends on maintaining competitive liquidity, efficient execution, and relevance across blockchain ecosystems. One important question remains: how effectively can protocol-level economic activity translate into sustainable value for UNI holders? Governance influence and protocol adoption are related, but they are not identical.$ZEC dropped from 2300 to 1200, more than halved.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
Before the hard fork, it rose to 2300, and I even said this wave of privacy coin market was about to take off. So what happened? After the hard fork, the good news was all priced in, and it crashed straight down from the high point, dropping nearly half.
This is the nature of altcoins — they soar when expectations are hyped, but crash hard when reality hits. Before the hard fork, everyone was betting and it went up; after the hard fork, those who needed to sell sold, those who needed to run ran, and it just collapsed.
Now it has fallen again from the high point. Personally, I’m just watching, not bottom fishing. Do you think 1200 is cheap? It has dropped a lot from 2300, but how do you know how much further it can fall? Privacy coins are like this: they go to the moon when hyped, but go underground when not.
If you really want to bottom fish privacy coins, wait until it stops hitting new lows for several consecutive days before considering. Now? I’m not catching a falling knife.
What about you? $ZEC dropped from 2300 to 1200, do you think it has lost its value or will it keep falling?10 月非农 16.5 万，预期 6.5 万，差了整整一倍还多。降息那条线基本被踹没了，12 月加息的押注往上抬。盘面给的反应很直白：风险资产集体挨冻，纳指周线跌约 3.4%，加密跟着挨刀，24 小时全网清算超 10 亿美元，九成是多单。被平掉的不是看错方向的人，是仓位撑不住的人——这句话我每年都要重说一遍。 市场现在的争论是「加息还是不加息」，这个争论本身就偏了。真正在抽血的不是联邦基金利率，是长端收益率和美元的走强：折现率一变，杠杆最重、故事最贵的资产先挨打。AI 那条线最贵，所以它先被杀；比特币被拖进去，是因为市场已经把它和科技股当成同一笔风险敞口在算。 历史对照摆在这儿：1998 年 9 月，俄罗斯违约之后纽约联储把华尔街几大行叫进会议室，凑了 36 亿美元接盘一家杠杆二十几倍的对冲基金；那年秋天美联储连着降息，纳指 10 月见底，之后一路走到 2000 年 3 月。这一轮不一样的地方是，压力不是从一家基金的模型里爆出来的，是叠在同一个叙事上的杠杆，外加中期选举后的政治周期——外面给的，得等外面收回去。 方向我不绕：这个位置我不追空，75,000 那道台阶没丢之前，追空就是在回$AKE typically involves large sell-offs followed by small buybacks; that's just how small operators behavePreviously, the SEC basically only issued fines; this time, it changed the homework.
On November 3rd, the SEC submitted rules for crypto broker-dealers to the White House for review, four at once: net capital, customer assets, bookkeeping, and record retention. It sounds dry, but these few lines are the foundation for whether custody can scale.
The problem is that the supporting details are all missing: the draft hasn’t been made public, the timeline is undecided, and the December 2025 statement was just staff pointing in a direction. The Democrats just won both chambers in the midterm elections and still need to intervene.
So $BTC’s short-term price fluctuations are basically unrelated to this matter; if you really want to watch, wait for the draft to appear. On November 3rd, the SEC submitted a proposal for crypto broker-dealer rules to the White House for regulatory review. To clarify the nature: this is not a fine, but a rule change. The SEC has unusually followed a formal legislative process.
The changes involve four old rules of the Securities Exchange Act. Rule 15c3-1 manages net capital, specifying how much capital institutions must retain; 15c3-3 governs customer asset protection, ensuring whether customers' money and coins can truly be segregated; 17a-3 covers record keeping, and 17a-4 dictates how long records must be kept. Simply put: for institutions wanting to operate as crypto broker-dealers, the requirements for capital, where customer funds are held, how accounts are recorded, and for how long, were previously undefined.
The timeline needs to be understood clearly. There is currently no public draft nor a confirmed release date. In December 2025, the SEC only issued a staff statement without any rule changes. It is too early to discuss whether it will pass.
Political variables have also come into play. The November 3rd midterm elections resulted in the Democratic Party winning majorities in both chambers. The new Congress will take office on January 3, 2027, officially assuming power, with hearings and budget negotiations serving as ready levers.
Assessment: It is unlikely to see a final draft before 2027, but the direction is clear — to fit crypto custody into the existing broker-dealer framework without creating new laws. The compliance gateway for $BTC and $ETH is widening, while for highly volatile assets like $SOL, it depends on how strict the custody channels are.
The sticking point is net capital: whether crypto assets count as qualified assets and at what discount they are included. This will determine who can engage in this business. 20,264 BTC, Riot has sold only 2,418 this year.
In the first three quarters, they cashed out about $1.5 billion by selling coins, all invested into AI data centers.
On November 4, they just signed a 15-year, $28 billion deal: leasing a 910 MW Texas campus to Anthropic, with an annual rent of about $1.8 billion.
Not the only one: MARA sold 23,093 coins, about $1.6 billion, in the first half of the year, and transferred out another 1,650 on November 5.
Bitcoin is still hovering around $76,000, but mining companies are collectively switching to being AI landlords.
I think this isn’t bearish on Bitcoin, but a clear calculation: mining profits are less stable than rental income; the risk is lease delivery delays or AI tenants pulling out.
One of two choices: mining companies selling coins to switch to AI — do you think this is a smart transformation or selling off their assets cheaply?
$RIOT $MARA $BTC
#比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 Answering in two parts: 1. Has the short-term low point (1–3 weeks) arrived? Most likely yes (around 804), but one more confirmation is needed ----- On 11-05, the most extreme panic signal combination in the stock's history appeared 2. Has the mid-term bottom (safe to hold) arrived? No ----- The decline has only lasted 2 trading days; historically, similar collapses take an average of 15–28 days to confirm This is a "panic low," not a "trend bottom." You can speculate on a rebound, but it should not be considered a base position. Historical statistics: What happened after this pattern? I have compiled all periods since this stock's listing where the "20-day drawdown > 20%" occurred, and observed the performance after the low points: 2025-11-21 183.0−20.0% 48.71.49x+20.4% 2026-03-09 517.0−11.8% 49.81.07x+20.7% 2026-07-29 998.2−24.2% 24.31.68x+47.6% 2026-11-05 804.0−26.7% 27.63.38x Under observation Key conclusion: In the past three occurrences of "RSI < 30 + deviation from EMA8 over 20%" extreme lows, rebounds within 20 trading days were +47.6%, +20.4%, and +20.7%, respectively. The current extreme level (−26.7%, 3.38 times volume) exceeds all previous onesInstitutional funds are still continuously flowing out, and the ETF outflow data looks a bit distressing 😮💨
$BTC spot ETFs have seen large-scale escapes for two consecutive days, with outflows this week already exceeding 1.28 billion. BlackRock-led funds sold 411 million BTC and 93.19 million ETH yesterday.
$ETH is even more painful, with 365 million outflows this week, marking six consecutive weeks of net outflows, and no signs of a bottom yet.
From a technical perspective:
ETH keeps hitting lower highs at 2580, 2530, and 2450, with mid-term support on shaky ground, and MACD falling below the zero line into the bearish zone.
BTC's MACD hasn't dipped yet but is very close to the zero line; the price is holding below the 200-day moving average, with short- and mid-term moving averages forming a death cross, continuously suppressing the long-term moving average. If the pressure confirms, the adjustment period will likely extend by more than half a month.
However, in this downturn, $UNI has shown independence and looks very promising.
All market indicators maintain a bullish structure with no bearish signals; on the day of the major US stock market drop, its burn volume doubled directly, showing clearly different capital recognition.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #BTC Spot ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year
I believe that one of the biggest pressures on BTC right now is not just the short-term price decline, but the continuous withdrawal of institutional funds.
From recent capital flows, the US spot BTC ETF has already shown significant net outflow pressure. From November 2 to 6, there was a single-week net outflow of about $1.28 billion, including a single-day net outflow of about $430 million on November 5.
This sends a warning signal worth noting:
1. Weakening institutional buying: Continuous ETF outflows mean that funds allocating BTC through traditional financial channels are cooling down.
2. Declining market absorption capacity: When incremental funds are insufficient, the market is more vulnerable to macroeconomic bearish factors, tech stock pullbacks, and leveraged liquidations.
3. Divergence in fund sentiment: ETF outflows do not mean all institutions are bearish, but at least indicate a short-term decline in allocation willingness.
However, I don't think ETF outflows alone justify concluding that BTC has entered a long-term bear market.
ETF capital flows more reflect the institutions' phase-specific risk appetite rather than being the sole determinant of BTC's long-term value.
What truly deserves attention next is whether ETFs can resume sustained net inflows and whether BTC can regain spot buying support after the selling pressure is released.
News drives sentiment, and capital drives trends. Without incremental funds fueling a rebound, sustainability remains to be observed. $BTC $XLY
Can wage growth support discretionary spending?
In October, U.S. hourly wages rose by 0.4% month-over-month, providing an income base for consumption. However, discretionary spending depends on how much purchasing power remains after deducting essential expenses, interest, and inflation.
An increase in employment does not mean all households simultaneously increase their spending willingness. High-income service consumption and large-ticket items reliant on installment payments may also diverge significantly.
I focus on sales volume, discounts, and consumer credit data. If income growth translates into real sales and promotions are controlled, demand is of higher quality; if income growth is driven by price increases, sales decline, and delinquencies rise, the overall extrapolation of consumption resilience should be reduced.How to view the weekend market, let's talk about the market after the non-farm payrolls release 🤔
Many people previously predicted non-farm payroll additions of only 65,000, but the actual figure came in at 165,000, nearly doubling the estimate, with the unemployment rate simultaneously falling to 4.1%.
Funds immediately repriced, with the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December surging to around 77%.
$BTC dipped to 74,900 last night before quickly pulling back, now grinding narrowly between 75,800–76,000. Focus on the 75,000 level; if it doesn't hold, there is room down to 74,000.
$ETH is noticeably more volatile than BTC, hitting a low near 2,200 last night, breaking the 2,250 support, now rebounding back to the 2,240-2,250 range. Support below is 2,200-2,220; if broken, it could easily head straight to 2,150.
No major data over the weekend; the market is mainly digesting the non-farm negative news slowly, likely maintaining a range-bound pattern without a strong trend.
The real direction will depend on next week's CPI release.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 There has been a phenomenon worth pondering these days: both are deleveraging along with the overall market, but $ETH has fallen significantly more sharply than Bitcoin, once dropping below 2300 and losing seven percent in a single day.
Immediately, some in the backend got excited: the one that fell the most has the greatest rebound potential, should we buy ETH now?
I poured cold water on that. In a round of systemic deleveraging, the leader in the decline is often the one that rose the most fiercely and had the heaviest positions earlier—not because it’s cheap, but because it’s the most heavily leveraged and experiences the most severe stampede. A sharp drop precisely indicates that many people are crowded on this ship, and the clearing is not over yet.
Don’t mistake the top of the decline list for the top of the rebound list. Before the market truly stabilizes and recovers with volume, falling more just means falling more, not that it has bottomed out. What you’re eager to buy is, after all, value or your own anxiety about missing out?Nonfarm payroll data came out directly exceeding expectations, a bit beyond imagination😮
October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, while the expectation was only 65,000, more than double, and the unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%.
With data this strong, the market immediately raised the probability of a December rate hike to about 70-80%.
$BTC briefly pulled up near 76,100 then quickly fell back, now stuck oscillating between 75,500-76,000. 75,000 is an important support; if it doesn't hold, it will continue downward.
$ETH is weaker, after breaking below 2,300 it is grinding near 2,230, with a larger drop than Bitcoin. The fear and greed index is at 28, market sentiment is already bearish.
With employment data this strong and Fed December rate hike expectations heating up, crypto is unlikely to be comfortable in the short term.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Square was flooded with $AKE today, with some doubling their holdings and others recovering losses. Let's take a look under the hood.
Facts:
1. The starting point is not a product benefit, but the OKX wallet's AKE Boost trading competition: 150,000 USDT distributed by trading volume to the top 3000 participants, launched on November 4, and ended today at 19:00 (Beijing time).
2. The market structure is volume washing: PancakeSwap's AKE/WBNB pool had a 24-hour turnover of 43.4 million USD, while the pool liquidity is only 1.23 million USD, meaning turnover is 35 times the pool size; there were 86,565 sell orders, slightly more than 83,486 buy orders.
3. Fuel comes from shorts: this round saw short liquidations of 3.13 million USD and long liquidations of 1.68 million USD; contract positions total about 68.15 million USD, roughly 60% of circulating market cap, with a funding rate of only +0.005% per 8 hours—no bullish frenzy premium, more like mechanical short squeeze.
4. The "points redemption return" cited as a new catalyst by news flashes is actually an old announcement from February 24.
Outlook: About 2.1 billion tokens will unlock monthly on November 21, while the circulating supply accounts for only 22.8% of the total.
With incentives expiring and shorts covering, what will take over next is more worth watching than guessing price moves.
Sources: Surf (citing OKX event rules, GeckoTerminal), CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko
#AKEA signal that's particularly honest but overshadowed by major market headlines: the prices of graphics cards in Huaqiangbei have collapsed.
Before the RTX 50 series, fueled by rumors of overseas production halts, prices surged for 11 consecutive trading days, with the 5080 reaching nearly 20,000. However, since the end of October, prices have reversed and dropped by 20% in recent days. Merchants themselves say that prices in the morning and afternoon are not the same.
The interesting part is this: while the stock market narrative around AI data centers is still tugging back and forth, the frontline channel dealers who stockpile with real money have already started voting with their feet. The retreat of speculation often begins closest to the money; when speculative funds withdraw, prices are the first to know.
Of course, the average price of mainstream cards is still about 1.7 times the suggested retail price, so the bubble is far from fully deflated. But the direction is clear: those that surged first often cool down first. This script is the same in any market.The sentiment for the veteran Meme trio is cooling off, and they are the first to drop.
The Meme sector is down 5.6% overall in 24 hours, $DOGE at 0.072 down 6.7%, $SHIB at 0.0000046 down 3.5%, and $PEPE is the strongest among the three, holding steady around 0.0000050, even briefly turning positive.
Recently, meme tokens were hyped with institutional entries and treasury purchases, but as the tide recedes, many problems have surfaced. Meme tokens have no cash flow, no revenue, and rely entirely on risk appetite.
With the non-farm payrolls disappointing and the probability of rate hikes rising, these assets are the first to be abandoned. But I want to say, when sentiment hits rock bottom, meme tokens actually become the best thermometer to observe the market. When one day DOGE moves first without Bitcoin rising, it means speculative funds outside the market have returned, signaling the prelude to altcoin season. Right now, even the long positions in PEPE are only defending.Core Risk Warnings
1. $75,563 is currently the only "structural survival line": a daily close below it will sequentially test 74,880 → 73,677 → 69,000 (if the weekly close is also below 75,500). Above 75,563, the structure is "bottoming"; breaking below it signals a "new round of decline."
2. The nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations (165,000 vs. expected 65,000) is the biggest macro variable this week: the probability of a rate hike in December at 76.8% has been repriced. The asymmetry of "no follow-through on the upside, doubled on the downside" means any rebound in risk assets is unlikely to smoothly transmit to BTC.
3. ETFs have lost $1.28 billion this month, which is the "hard ceiling" for the rebound: November recorded net inflows on only one trading day, with IBIT as the main source of withdrawals. Until ETFs return to sustained net inflows, any rebound can only be qualified as a "correction."
4. The $11 billion options expiry Gamma pressure is concentrated between 70,000–82,000: today's biggest pain point is 79,000, and market makers' hedging may accelerate volatility around the expiry. "Wait to see if it holds after expiry" is safer than betting on direction before expiry.
5. The "partial replenishment" by whales is not new capital: the withdrawal of 3,009 coins only covers half of the previous sell volume, representing spread trading rather than trend accumulation. The market's default narrative of "whales bottom-fishing" is not confirmed by current on-chain data. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 一边是现货比特币 ETF 的资金流出登上热搜，另一边是上市公司 Strive 公布，10 月 1 日至 30 日增持了 15,124 枚比特币。企业买盘能持续多久，能不能在 ETF 资金流出时给市场提供支撑？ 先看 ETF，资产缩水和资金撤出要分开读。贝莱德旗下 IBIT 在提交给美国 SEC 的季报里披露，2026 年前九个月，基金流通份额净增加 5608 万份，净资产却下降了 0.55%。同期比特币价格下跌 4.31%，季报把币价下跌列为净资产下降的主要原因。份额在增加，基金持有的资产却跌了价。只看规模变化，很容易把币价下跌和资金撤出算成两个利空。 再看企业买盘，买了多少之外，还得看钱从哪来。Strive 在同一份公告里披露，10 月完成一笔优先股发行，净募资约 6.09 亿美元，该优先股的股息率为 15%。一次增持说明公司已经买了多少，后续能不能维持这个速度，还要看融资条件和持续支付股息的成本。 我的观点是，企业增持说明市场还有买家。判断需求回暖，更要看买盘能不能持续、能不能扩散。接下来我会盯两件事。第一，ETF 的赎回是集中在少数基金，还是扩散到多只基金并持续几个交易日？第二，There's something I've never been able to figure out: 88% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, 84% beat EPS expectations, and on average they earned 2.7% more — this kind of report card would usually call for champagne.
But the market didn't smile; instead, everyone is waiting for next Wednesday's CPI and core PCE.
It's like the whole class scored above expectations on a test, but the parents are still waiting at the door for the health check report. $BTC has been stuck, neither going up nor down these days, probably in the same situation.
I'm the same, watching the market so closely that I start doubting I'm waiting for an answer that can't be guessed at all. Right now, it seems like everyone is just watching and no one wants to make a big move first. If they try to push it up, there are still a bunch of people stuck from before waiting to break even and run, so a push up easily triggers selling; if they try to keep pushing it down, around 74887 some people are willing to buy a bit, so it’s hard to push it down further.
Trading volume has cooled off too, giving the feeling that everyone is taking a breather, just waiting to see if something happens next to take the lead, to see whether it will finally move up a bit or dip down again. $BTC A whale bought $7,410,000 in $ETH today.
He has now accumulated $30,000,000 in Ethereum this week.俄罗斯央行终于把BTC、ETH和USDT的普通投资者交易规则定下来了。 $BTC $ETH #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 11月17日生效，普通投资者通过单一中介每年最多买30万卢布，交易前还要考试。 12月1日，莫斯科交易所计划开始试点BTC、ETH和USDT交易。 我觉得这件事值得持续跟踪。 因为它不是又一个项目方出来喊采用率，而是传统金融市场正在尝试把加密资产纳入自己的交易和清算体系，虽然俄罗斯自身金融信誉低到极点，但是本质上BTC不是俄罗斯国债！ 所以这还跟上世纪的情况不一样，并且这里还有一个有意思的矛盾： 莫斯科交易所及其清算机构仍受到美国制裁，实际交易渠道、清算安排和USDT合规问题都需要观察。 所以我对BTC、ETH的中长期制度化发展偏正面，但不会把这条新闻直接翻译成短线暴涨。 真正值得盯的是11月17日有没有实际成交，以及12月1日莫斯科交易所能不能形成真实交易量。 像香港那样也就纯纯是个添头了！ 你觉得俄罗斯投资者会逐渐转向正规交易渠道，还是继续使用原来的场外交易方式？ 大家可以评论区一起聊聊对BTC后续价格影响的看法，我们一起讨论一下！ 我接下来也会Counterintuitive phenomenon: The earnings season is almost over, the report cards are good, yet the market shows no respect.
88% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings, 84% have exceeded consensus EPS expectations by an average of 2.7%.
But the real direction decider next week hasn’t come out yet — October CPI and core PCE. The market is waiting for the data, not the earnings reports. Earnings show how much was earned in the past three months; inflation data shows whether the Fed still has room to cut rates.
Here’s the mechanism. If inflation is higher than expected, the rate cut space shrinks, US Treasury yields rise, discount rates go up, and valuations of long-duration assets get compressed across the board. Crypto assets, being the outermost layer and most sensitive to liquidity, usually don’t see $BTC fall the most, but it reacts the fastest. $ETH moves in sync with macro trends, while high-elasticity assets like $SOL experience even more exaggerated volatility.
There’s another easy-to-miss clue: Cisco’s earnings on Thursday, with the market watching the progress on $7.5 billion AI infrastructure orders for the full year; CoreWeave’s earnings on Tuesday, focusing on data center construction and order backlog, while facing rising borrowing costs and debt financing pressure. The AI narrative is shifting from "how many orders were signed" to "how to pay the interest."
My judgment: Next week won’t be about direction, but about volatility. The valuable information isn’t whether CPI is high or low, but whether the market’s reaction is excessive. A deeper-than-necessary drop is an opportunity; if data is good but prices can’t rise, that’s when to be cautious.
84% of companies have beaten expectations; beating expectations itself is no longer news. #BerkshireQ3CashOutlook The key point is not how much cash there is, but that cash is starting to decrease: Q1 peak was about $397 billion, Q2 dropped to about $365 billion, Q3 is expected to be about $358 billion; Q2 net stock purchases were about $20 billion, ending 14 consecutive quarters of net selling, and acquisitions include Taylor Morrison and an investment in Alphabet. Abel has shifted from "hoarding cash" to "active allocation," which is the most practical good news — $ZEC Records $12.76 Million in 24-Hour Liquidations, Rivaling $BTC and $ETH ! $ZEC has experienced a massive wave of liquidations, with approximately $12,756,700 wiped out within just 24 hours, putting its liquidation activity on a level comparable to major cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH. During the day, $ZEC briefly moved into positive territory, gaining 0.64% and attracting traders who rushed to open or increase their positions. However, the situation quickly reversed overnight, with thAn on-chain position record is challenging the market's habitual assumption that "shorts will inevitably be forced to explode": a certain whale is shorting simultaneously on three fronts—$BTC, $ETH, and $ATOM—with both $BTC and $ETH positions leveraged 20x at full margin, and the liquidation prices deliberately set extremely far away. This is not a short-term directional bet but a long-term ambush with ample room for error. Let's first look at the most striking set of numbers. $BTC short position: -436 contracts, entry price $77,001.5, unrealized profit +$561,800, cumulative funding fees +$3,240,800, margin $1,650,500; $ETH short position: -14,000 contracts, entry price $2,443.6, unrealized profit +$2,993,700, cumulative funding fees +$3,769,200, margin $1,554,700. Combined, just the funding fees exceed $7 million, far surpassing the unrealized gains themselves. What does this mean? This player’s real battlefield is not price difference but the funding rate curve—he stands on the side collecting fees, exchanging time for space. The $ATOM position reveals another aspect of this strategy: 5x leverage, -24,600 contracts, entry price $10.1735, unrealized profit +$215,300, but funding fees of -$6,220.77, the only one among the three lines incurring funding costs. The same logic is treated unequally across different assets, which precisely indicates that the funding fee structure, rather than pure bearish sentiment, is the underlying basis for position allocation. What the market tends to overlook$CT Bullish: OKEx contract trading shares 1.67 million CT, current price follows volume
OKEx launches CTUSDT contract trading to earn coins from November 5 to 11, prize pool 1,670,000 CT, CTUSDT coin coefficient 1.10x
After registration, cumulative original nominal transactions reaching 5,000 USDT equivalent will share rewards proportionally by effective volume, individual cap 7,500 CT, rewards expected to be distributed before November 13
The event directly ties contract transactions to CT rewards, OKEx spot CT current price 0.1335, 24h approx. +4.57%, volume about 6.1 million USDT, high 0.1463 low 0.1229
Early bird 1.2x ended today at midnight, but CTUSDT still enjoys 1.10x weighting until November 11 18:00, volume remains strong.