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Leverage consumes funding fees, risk still lies in the rebound. The core of this portfolio is not short-term speculation, but using low leverage to buy time and using funding fees as a buffer. The three short positions on BTC, ETH, and SOL are all full positions: BTC and ETH use 5X leverage, SOL uses 7X; the nominal value totals about 420 million U. Currently, the combined unrealized profit of the three positions is about 9.97 million U, with cumulative funding fee income of about 12.53 million U, effectively thickening the safety cushion continuously. Looking at the opening and liquidation prices, the liquidation points are far from the current prices, providing ample margin for error. BTC opened at 76390.2, liquidation at 131182.12; ETH opened at 2322.72, liquidation at 3896.76; SOL opened at 94.3346, liquidation at 280.99. The account performance shows that low leverage allows positions to be more composed amid volatility, while funding fees continuously contribute cash flow. However, low leverage does not mean no risk. Under the full position mode, if mainstream coins experience a sustained rebound, existing unrealized profits may be quickly given back, and the safety cushion from funding fees may be eroded by price fluctuations. What really needs to be monitored is not the short-term profit and loss figures, but the sustainability of the rebound, margin balance, and the risk of full position linkage. Earning funding fees passively can be the result of a market phase, but it cannot replace risk management.Stop debating whether ONE can break new highs. This is not a trend reversal at all; it's a classic death pulse. The Harmony public chain explorer is about to shut down, and the project itself has entered its closing phase. The short-term violent surge of 59% is just a lifeline window drawn by whales for those chasing the highs. Those bloggers shouting to push to 0.0025 are most likely helping the main force find people to take over the chips. The surge is not a rebirth; it's the final frenzy of unloading. After the pulse, momentum exhausts, and above are all selling pressures waiting to escape. Going long now is like jumping off a cliff without a parachute. Of course, if speculative funds want to continue hyping sentiment, it can still rally once more. This round of $ONE's market is a typical example of "fundamental bearish news + capital speculation" divergence. Fundamental signal: Harmony will shut down its block explorer on November 18, and the project is entering the closing and migration phase. Market signal: 7-day increase over 59%, from a low of 0.001027 to a high of 0.002479, then a pullback from the high. The market is split into two camps: Bulls: capital heat is sufficient, buying is strong, competing for a second surge to break previous highs. Bears: the rally is a bull trap, whales distribute chips during the rise, and after the pulse market ends, there will be deep liquidation. Here is a crucial trading insight: bearish news landing does not mean an immediate drop; capital speculation can temporarily ignore fundamentals. But two things must be distinguished: short-term price can be pushed up by sentiment and capital. Long-term, the decline of the project's lifecycle is unavoidable.BTC ETF outflows of $416M dominate the discussion. That resilience is notable, but it leaves the market dependent on whether flows stabilize rather than on a broad risk-on impulse. A renewed acceleration in outflows would challenge this read. Not financial advice.After learning quantitative analysis, I developed a habit: when I see data, I first think about how to write conditions 🤖 If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if DEX trading volume is simultaneously lower than both the previous day and a week ago, then reduce the weight of the "on-chain demand heating up" signal.
According to DefiLlama, the total DEX trading volume across the network in the past 24 hours was about $5.356 billion, down 35.4% from the previous day and down 17.0% from a week ago. This data set meets my condition, but I wouldn’t directly reduce the signal weight to zero.
I think this rule is suitable for applying brakes on heat judgment: two comparison windows can reduce misjudgments caused by only focusing on a single day’s baseline; a decrease in trading volume also weakens the evidence of demand heating up. The loophole is that the total volume might mask local activity, and a single data point can’t indicate how long the cooling will last. This is just an observation rule I designed and still needs validation.
If you were to write this condition, would you require it to trigger consecutively several times, or would you add the top DEX trading share as a filter?The strength gap within the “Big Coin family” is being widened by BCH. I tend to see it as a precursor to a retreat in altcoin risk appetite rather than rushing to declare a breakup of their correlation. They all have "Bit" in their names, but when it comes to actual support, they really aren’t a family that can back each other up.
First, look at Big Coin: BTC fell about 0.18%, with a volatility of about 0.90%, basically still oscillating in a narrow range. Then look at BCH: down about 5.40%, volatility about 7.99%, current price 249.46, still about 5.79% below its high. This is not just a bit more than BTC’s drop; after amplified volatility, the price is still suppressed at a relatively low level.
The most common mistake when watching the market is to see Big Coin stable and assume other coins should be stable too. But this data seems to say: BTC holding steady does not mean funds are willing to support BCH. Based on just these two coins, you can’t conclude the entire altcoin market is retreating; but if I had to pick a side, I’d side with “risk appetite cooling” rather than “family correlation already loosening.”
Which evidence will fail first: BTC’s narrow range, or BCH’s weakness? #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $BCH $BTC Will $SOL break through $1000 in this bull market? It is well known that stablecoin payments are the next trend, but only Sol has truly integrated into users' phones.
Samsung is currently the world's number one smartphone shipper, with a market share exceeding 22%. Now 82 million Samsung Galaxy users can directly use the phone's built-in wallet to transfer USDC, and this is just the first batch.
Major mainstream projects are entering the stablecoin payment track, but so far it seems only SOL🚀 can get close to users' daily usage. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Just saw a brother bottom-fishing in storage this wave, and last night two accounts were liquidated to zero! #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
Hynix and SanDisk, the main storage themes, are both AI storage narrative targets, with inherently huge volatility. Previously optimistic about the storage cycle warming up, they went straight into high leverage, $SNDK going up to 73x full position long, $SKHYNIX also pulled up to 50x.
Last night’s sharp drop caused two accounts to be forcibly liquidated, wiping out all SKHYNIX, AKE, and ETH long positions. Only one account remains, with margin ratio below 30%, still at risk of forced liquidation anytime—really sweating for him!
The storage sector has recently been dragged down by the big drop in the semiconductor index, AI capital expenditure expectations loosening, and collective pressure on chip storage.
No matter how good the sector logic is, high leverage full-position bottom-fishing really can’t withstand short-term emotional sell-offs. Cycle reversals don’t happen overnight; if you leverage everything, you risk blowing up before the payoff—this is a vivid lesson from contracts.This morning's on-chain data indicates only one thing: the money didn't just change pockets, it exited the market directly 💸 The futures market saw a net outflow of about $700 million in a single day, while the spot side had almost no takers — this combination of “leverage withdrawing first, spot not stepping in” is more alarming than a simple price drop. Breaking it down makes it clearer: $BTC futures inflows were 9.4 billion, outflows 9.97 billion, net withdrawal 569 million; $ETH inflows 5.57 billion, outflows 5.68 billion, net withdrawal 114 million; $SOL inflows 922 million, outflows 948 million, net withdrawal 25.38 million. Together, these three had a net outflow exceeding 700 million, with leveraged funds exiting decisively and without hesitation. The spot side is even colder: $BTC spot inflow was only 2.7 million, $ETH 22.7 million inflow, while $SOL actually had a net outflow of 10.72 million. The spot market showed no support, indicating funds did not move from futures to spot but completely withdrew from the market 👀. Trading volume confirms this: the total market's daily turnover plummeted 56.7%, down to just over 141.6 billion. With volume shrinking to this extent, the market can't even fake moves, and any rebound lacks fuel. But one anomaly is worth noting separately: $ZEC futures inflows were 2.14 billion, outflows 2.13 billion, net inflow 12.38 million; spot net inflow 19.18 million. It is the only coin attracting capital simultaneously in both futures and spot — while others are withdrawing, it is entering. I'll keep this money on record for follow-up tracking. The options side also shows conflicting signals: $BTC options trading volume increased by 61Ledger of three short positions: low leverage to earn funding fees, risk still lies in the rebound
The core of this strategy is not short-term speculation, but using low leverage to buy time and funding fees as a buffer. The three short positions on BTC, ETH, and SOL are all full positions: BTC and ETH use 5X leverage, SOL uses 7X; the nominal value totals about 420 million U. Currently, the combined unrealized profit of the three positions is about 9.97 million U, with cumulative funding fee income of about 12.53 million U, effectively thickening the safety cushion.
Looking at the opening and liquidation prices, the liquidation points are far from the current prices, providing ample margin for error. BTC opened at 76390.2, liquidation at 131182.12; ETH opened at 2322.72, liquidation at 3896.76; SOL opened at 94.3346, liquidation at 280.99. The account performance shows that low leverage allows positions to be more composed amid volatility, while funding fees continuously contribute cash flow.
However, low leverage does not mean no risk. In a full position mode, if mainstream coins experience a sustained rebound, existing unrealized profits will quickly be given back, and the safety cushion from funding fees may be eroded by price fluctuations. What really needs monitoring is not the short-term profit and loss figures, but the sustainability of the rebound, margin balance, and the risk of full position linkage. Earning funding fees passively can be a result of a certain market phase, but it cannot replace risk management.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Currently, the shorts on HYPE are at a historical high.
And now the price of BTC is just above the important daily support level of 74900 by about one point.
There are mainly three points to consider:
Question 1: Is this the beginning of a bull market? If so, then around 75000 is an important pullback in the initial daily-level uptrend, a rare and valuable opportunity.
Question 2: If it breaks down effectively, then the signs of a bull market will be quickly extinguished, entering another long period of consolidation without direction.
Question 3: Although the big whales on HYPE are collectively bearish, such unanimous behavior can easily create a short trap, leading to a violent squeeze and explosive upward breakout.
So, just answer one question:
Does BTC currently have the market conditions and external momentum for a strong rebound?
75000 serves as BTC's daily support and has been consolidating and pulling back for 60 days (counting from August 25). Relatively speaking, BTC's daily chart is at a low level. And at this low level, just a slight external push can trigger a rebound lasting several days, enough to wipe out a large portion of short leverage.
I always believe one thing: there is no instant rise, nor a one-day complete drop for BTC. So, at the 75000 level, if it wants to break down and continue falling, it must first rebound before falling again to make the drop healthy!!25x leverage, gone after a 4% drop
Huang Licheng sold one Bored Ape, exchanged it for 12.5 $ETH.
The money didn’t go into a cold wallet, it went straight into a contract.
Where did this money come from:
Sold 15 NFTs at a discount over five days, losing $505,000.
Only received $223,000, effectively losing one for each sold.
How this number is calculated:
540 $ETH, 25x leverage, opened position at $2304.
Liquidation price at $2203, only $101 apart.
Working backward, a 4.4% drop triggers the line.
He’s betting on a rebound, not value.
The stop-loss order placed at that position has already been triggered.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $ETH Seeing Core Trader 84 open a new $XYZ100 short position with a notional value of about $180,300, many people's first reaction is "big money is bearish."
On the other hand, I don't treat it as an independent bearish signal: notional amount does not equal net short exposure, if there are also long positions, this could just be a hedge; the action of a single wallet cannot be taken as market consensus.
If you find it also has an equivalent long position, would you still consider this short position bearish? Those with opposing views, come argue.The screen is completely quiet, but the news is causing a stir. Are you familiar with this sense of disconnection? Should you trust the market or the headlines? Last night, watching the OKX spot page, my first reaction wasn’t panic, but that it was too quiet. BTC was quoted at 75794.6, moving only 0.05% in 24 hours, with a daily amplitude of 0.84%; ETH was quoted at 2233.92, up 0.25%. Just looking at this screen, you would never guess how heavy the news was. Switching to the news page, the tone immediately changed. Public reports stated that the Treasury/FinCEN took action against MEXC Global under Section 9714, accusing it of illegal fund flows amounting to no less than 160 billion USD, mainly targeting illegal Russian-related finances, also mentioning Iran and North Korea, with the announcement taking effect 30 days after publication. MEXC responded that operations are normal and they are conducting a self-check on AML. I tend to interpret this as a pinpoint strike rather than the start of the entire industry being throttled. It’s not that the news isn’t serious, but the current BTC volatility can’t support a narrative of market-wide panic. However, sideways trading doesn’t mean the issue is fully digested; these two things should be viewed separately. What the market is actually trading on right now isn’t "whether a certain exchange will have problems," but "how many people are still willing to buy into a new story at this level." There are three emotional layers worth noting. - FOMO is very weak: no impulse to chase gains, indicating that incremental funds are insensitive to both positive and negative news, a typical narrative fatigue period. - HesitationCan a single-day inflow of $ETH indicate that funds have returned?
The US spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $53 million on November 4, followed by a combined net outflow of $193.2 million over the next two trading days. A single subscription has not yet reversed the direction of funds. If net inflows extend to multiple products and ETH strengthens relative to BTC, the recovery will be more solid. If it is still supported by a single product and the relative strength continues to decline, the assessment should be downgraded.Anthropic is still pushing for an IPO in November, but investors have already started serious bargaining. This is more worth watching than simply discussing whether it can set a listing record.
The latest reported valuation range remains wide, about $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion, significantly lower than the $2 trillion some optimistic investors previously expected. The final price has not been determined, indicating that buyers and sellers have not yet reached a consensus on how much future growth should be worth.
I actually think it’s normal to be willing to adjust the price. Tech stocks have just experienced severe volatility, and prices of comparable companies in the public market are changing. If the new stock continues to insist on the previously most optimistic valuation, subscribers will naturally be more selective.
There is also an easily overlooked distinction here: a decline in valuation expectations does not necessarily directly imply business deterioration; rapid business growth also does not prove that any issue price is worthwhile. The company needs financing, investors need returns, and while their goals overlap, they will not be completely aligned.
I am rather averse to a certain sentiment: as long as it’s a popular AI company, getting a share is considered a win. What truly determines returns are the purchase price, subsequent expenditures, and how long growth can be sustained.
If the listing can be completed at a more reasonable price in the end, I would find that healthier than forcing a record. The hype will eventually pass, and the results delivered each quarter after listing will continuously affect how much shareholders are willing to pay.
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 Another week has passed, so let's take another look at the OKX-ICE line. Currently, the number of companies opposing it has risen to 67 😂 Yes, you heard that right. The platform initially planned to include only 62 companies, but ended up with 67 opposing 😂 Actually, this is because a batch of companies was added later, but this doesn't change the fact that all seven major US stocks, including Nvidia and Apple, have said no. According to SEC rules, as long as a company submits a written objection within 30 days, the platform cannot list third-party token versions of that company's stock. In other words, before the platform even launches, the seven most valuable stocks are already gone, leaving only targets like Coinbase and Robinhood, which, whether for Web2 or Web3, I don't find particularly attractive.
Thinking back to last month when OKX announced this partnership with much fanfare, the contrast now is somewhat bleak. I'm not gloating; rather, from an industry development perspective, I feel a sense of empathy. The lesson here is clear: under the SEC framework, companies have veto power over the tokenization of their own stocks. No matter how good the technology is, if they disagree, there's nothing you can do. Ultimately, this returns to the core difficulty of RWA—compliance and trust.
I will continue to follow this line and see how things develop.The same red chart, two sets of books
DEGEN rolled up 9.92% in 24 hours, but according to Beijing midnight, it actually dropped 13.36%. Orbit is still talking about bottom-fishing, but I don't consider the red color as making money today.
Different starting points.
I keep the midnight price on the review page to avoid being misled by the colors myself.
$DEGEN 17 times, cheapness depends on the denominator
I first look at profit expectations.
SNDK perpetual at $835.2, 24-hour low at $825.6, the midday tech stock cheapness argument uses forward profits, if profits are revised downward, the cheapness will also change.
This is still not proof that SanDisk is cheap.
$SNDK The phase of switching from a bear market to a bull market is often not smooth. Upswings and pullbacks alternate, and various unexpected negative news constantly disrupt the market rhythm. What is truly tested is patience and execution.
Recently, I have repositioned long orders at several points with a relatively suitable risk-reward ratio. I don't aim to buy at the lowest point, but only hope to get a better entry position under controllable risk.
Looking back at this year's market, I increasingly feel it is very similar to the trend at the beginning of 2023. At that time, the market experienced a long 8-month period of consolidation, an experience still vivid in my memory.
Back then, the capital size was not large, and I always wanted to catch every fluctuation, which instead consumed a lot of energy due to repeated oscillations.
This time, I hope to be more composed.
The market may still be the same market, but the trading method and mindset should change. Patiently waiting for the trend is more important than frequently chasing every rise and fall.
#USJobsBeatExpectations $CORE The four phenomena you observed collectively point to one conclusion: CORE is undergoing multiple depletions in its ecosystem, liquidity, and confidence. 📉 Depth chart "disappeared": liquidity completely dried up The depth chart you see is almost a straight line, meaning buy and sell orders are extremely sparse. The price has dropped to around 0.012U, down by an order of magnitude since March. The market no longer has enough buyers to take over positions; very few sell orders can crash the price, and very few buy orders can instantly push it up. This is not "no one is trading," but rather "no one is willing to trade at this level." 🔒 Deposit suspension: the chain reaction of the b14g incident OKX suspended deposits, directly triggered by the b14g protocol theft incident. About 97 million CORE tokens were withdrawn exploiting a contract compatibility vulnerability. Although approximately 68.15 million (70.2%) were recovered through a hard fork, some funds still flowed to external addresses. Exchanges like OKX suspended deposits and withdrawals to prevent stolen funds from being laundered through exchanges or causing new chaos before the on-chain status is fully confirmed safe. ⛓️ Only 10 nodes left: security redundancy approaching critical red line CORE's consensus security depends on a sufficient number of independent validators. The community had previously warned that the number of independent validators had fallen below 20, very close to the "shutdown red line" of 15. The 10 you see means the security redundancy has fallen below the theoretical safety baseline. Although the chain is still running, its risk resistance is extremely fragile, and any further node withdrawalThe most surreal part is this: the crypto industry spent nearly $200 million on political donations, trying to turn Congress into allies, but ended up losing in both chambers.
Now the Democrats, holding subpoena power, are first investigating the Trump family's $1.16 billion earnings from crypto. The donors Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z should prepare to be questioned, and the recipient will have to testify at a hearing next January.
$BTC hasn't dropped much so far, but this thing can't be priced in advance—not because of how bad the news is, but because you don't know who will be named next.💻 I'll break this down based on code review: Centrifuge, through its Anemoy, launched the tokenized Schroder SISF Emerging Markets Bond Fund on Solana. Subscription and redemption use USDC, with a minimum subscription of $100,000 for non-U.S. professional investors.
My judgment: This launch should focus more on exception handling rather than on on-chain speed. The professional investor threshold means it is not an entry point for the general public; the underlying asset is still a bond fund, so fast transfers do not directly imply fast redemptions, and interface upgrades do not equal business logic rewrites.
The potential bug lies in the coordination between the two processes. If the on-chain submission and the underlying fund processing are not synchronized, users may face waiting times and unclear status. This is my speculation and does not indicate an existing product issue.
If I were to make changes, I would prioritize clearly defining the redemption status, conditions for funds arrival, and who handles exceptions before discussing experience upgrades. Please help review: treating the redemption exception process as the acceptance focus, did I miss any more critical risks?JUST IN: Canton tops every chain with $320B in tokenized assets
@CantonNetwork ($CC) accounts for about $320.7B of the $366B in “represented” assets on rwa.xyz, meaning assets recorded on a network but not freely traded onchain. Almost all of it comes from Broadridge’s repo platform, which handles short-term loans backed by US government bonds.
Canton also shared this week’s numbers from its foundation’s live counter: the network now has 63 Super Validator nodes and 827 validators in total.Bitcoin ($BTC), Ethereum ($ETH), and SOL ($SOL) have recently been stuck in an unusually tight price range, with the market appearing calm on the surface, but the underlying battle between bulls and bears is quite intense. Bitcoin is oscillating around 76020, Ethereum is quoted at 2240.44, and SOL has surpassed the 90 mark, making it the strongest performer among the three. Unlike typical consolidation, the long-short ratio for all three coins is above 3, indicating very crowded long positions, which is the core characteristic of the current market. Although price fluctuations are minimal, liquidations continue steadily, with a clear divergence in liquidation structures among different coins: Bitcoin and Ethereum shorts are incurring more losses, while SOL longs are under greater liquidation pressure. This divergence indicates that the market lacks a unified directional trend and resembles funds being squeezed back and forth between different coins. Prices are being tugged slightly, continuously washing out bulls chasing highs and bears holding positions, with funds rapidly shifting. Stable prices and rising leverage do not equate to market stability; rather, it is a phase of position compression before a directional choice. The direction of the breakout largely depends on whether new funds enter the market. If leverage levels do not decrease, the area around Bitcoin 76000 could either slowly form a bottom or become a very high-risk zone. The key observation going forward is whether new funds will continue to push the crowded longs higher or enter to liquidate this batch of longs. $BTC $ETH $SOLNow I don't even want to trade BTC or ETH anymore, 🔍 let's take a look at ZEC. Why is ZEC's volatility more intense than BTC and ETH?
Behind this are mainly two forces pulling against each other, causing price elasticity far greater than mainstream coins:
1. Unique "event-driven" and "buy the rumor, sell the fact"
The biggest independent catalyst for ZEC recently is the NU7 network upgrade. This upgrade shortens block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, a solid technical improvement. Funds rushed in ahead of the upgrade to speculate on expectations, pushing ZEC to rise against the market trend; but once the upgrade officially activates around November 6, short-term funds quickly take profits, causing ZEC to decline independently of the overall market trend. This "sell the news" pressure is something BTC and ETH currently do not have.
2. "Stampede" of highly leveraged longs
ZEC's independent volatility is amplified by leverage in the contract market. Data shows that during ZEC's decline, long liquidations dominated absolutely. For example, in a certain period, total ZEC network liquidations were about $4.73 million, with long liquidations reaching about $4.13 million and shorts only $600,000. This means a large amount of bullish leveraged funds were forced to close positions during the price drop, further exacerbating the decline. In contrast, BTC and ETH have deeper market depth and more dispersed leverage structures, making such one-sided concentrated liquidations less likely. #ZEC再创新高，估值重估受关注 $ZEC $ETH $BTC $CORE 1 Currently, the depth chart on OKEx exchange is almost gone?
2 Since the last b14g theft incident, OKEx exchange has not reopened deposits yet
3 The current price on OKEx exchange is 0.012U, approximately 0.08 yuan per coin
4 The current node situation is that 10 nodes are still running Isn't it thrilling? $BTC has returned near Saylor @Saylor's cost line again.
MicroStrategy @Strategy holds 849,327 $BTC with an average cost of $75,451,
At the beginning of the month, there was over $2 billion in unrealized gains, now it's back to zero.
This year, to pay preferred stock dividends, they have gradually sold about $430 million worth of coins,
With Monday's 8-K released, I'll first see if they buy or sell this week.
Don't buy high and sell low again?Many people look at Intel only focusing on the sharp drop and directly conclude it is oversold.
Now at $56, it has retraced nearly 58% from the peak.
CEO Chen Liwu personally invested nearly $10 million to increase holdings around $65.
Many treat this insider buying as ironclad evidence that the valuation has bottomed.
But there is a very easy cognitive trap here:
A large drop ≠ undervaluation; insider buying ≠ no further decline.
The market selling Intel is not an irrational emotional crash.
The root cause is Q4 guidance significantly below expectations, continued large losses in foundry business, and huge capital expenditure pressure.
Executives are buying options on a long-term transformation, while the market is selling on the certainty of short-term profit realization.
You can bet on its foundry + AI server chip turnaround.
But don’t assume that a big drop + insider buying equals value has already been realized.
The real issue is never how much it has fallen.
It’s whether Intel’s transformation plan can deliver on the income statement. $INTC $QQQ Today, the funding rates for BTC and ETH remain overall neutral, which is a relatively healthy signal for the market. However, Ajian wants to remind everyone that this only indicates that leverage sentiment hasn't reached an extreme for now; it does not mean the trend has reversed. If spot buying doesn't keep up, prices may still continue to consolidate or move downwards to seek liquidity. So, has the buying kept up? Let's take a look:
$BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, the worst week since the end of June. More importantly, this week alone turned the year's account negative. On Monday, the year-to-date net inflow was still $368 million, but by Saturday it had become a net outflow of $914.1 million. The speed of institutional withdrawal can only be described as embarrassing.
$ETH is even worse, with ETF net outflows of $365.3 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of net outflows, totaling about $2.02 billion over six weeks. If BTC's outflow accelerated suddenly this week, ETH has been bleeding continuously for six weeks, which is probably even harder to endure.
In summary, the current market condition looks more like a cooling off of leverage rather than the market re-entering a bull rhythm. At least, let's wait and see what next week's CPI says. #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
Bitcoin is now hovering around 75,700, with a slight dip in the last 24 hours; liquidity is naturally thin over the weekend. On the ETF side, there was a net outflow of 412 million on November 6, with BlackRock IBIT alone withdrawing 403 million; over the past five trading days, the total outflow reached 1.282 billion, and the cumulative outflow for November is about the same, with only one day showing net inflow so far this month.
The contrast is painful. In October, the ETF net outflow for the whole month narrowed to just 26 million, and it barely turned positive for the year in the latter part of the month. However, the two weeks in November have reversed all that, with the year-to-date cumulative net inflow turning negative again by 416 million. Funds are indeed withdrawing, but the price has basically stayed pinned between 75,000 and 76,000 all week, without breaking the previous low. The selling pressure is concentrated in the ETF channel, yet the market hasn’t collapsed accordingly. This divergence is more worth watching than the outflow numbers themselves.
The technical picture is straightforward. The 4-hour structure remains bearish, with the price below the moving averages. The 75,000 to 75,400 range is a critical short-term defense line; the first resistance above is at 76,500. If it can’t break through, expect continued narrow consolidation. As for community sentiment, the fear index is at 25, still in extreme fear territory, with as many people calling for a bottom as those advising patience before a reversal.
My view: In the short term, expect weak consolidation and don’t rush to call a rebound. Until 75,000 is broken down with volume, shorting isn’t cost-effective; but until 76,500 is reclaimed, there’s no signal to go long on the right side.Recently, ZEC (Zcash) has shown a strong independent trend, with price fluctuations much more intense than BTC and ETH. Behind this is not only the narrative resonance of "zero-knowledge proof (zk-SNARKs) + regulatory headwinds landing + Grayscale ETF expectations," but also a typical high-leverage derivatives chip game.
From the latest market data, several game signals can be clearly seen:
1. Huge derivatives trading volume: contract turnover is extremely concentrated, with MEXC ($1.636 billion), Binance ($1.388 billion), and OKX ($850 million) accounting for the vast majority of liquidity. Capital is highly concentrated in the derivatives market, causing prices to be easily driven by large orders.
2. Divergence between retail bearishness and main force control: the overall network long-short ratio and large account long-short ratio are both below 1 (indicating retail investors are mostly bearish), but Binance large account long-short ratio is as high as 1.4629. This shows that large funds and main forces are continuously strongly pushing up or absorbing positions, presenting a typical "retail shorts, main force takes profits" control pattern.
3. Intense shakeouts and liquidations: 24-hour liquidation amount exceeds $6.22 million, with long liquidations at $5.39 million (over 86%). Under high leverage, once a high-level pullback occurs, it triggers a chain liquidation of longs.
Summary: ZEC's independent trend comes from the combination of narrative premium + highly concentrated chips. Current volatility is huge; in operation, avoid blindly chasing $ZEC 💻 I treat this message as a code review: The input is a wallet funded by Tornado Cash, first swapping 3100 ETH for about 6.92 million USDC, then establishing a $26 million long Bitcoin and short Ethereum position on Hyperliquid.
My judgment: The most easily overestimated is the explanatory power of the funding source label. Source does not equal identity, so the wallet cannot be characterized based on that; the long-short combination is not two independent directional bets, it may be a bet on relative strength, but that is my speculation.
A potential bug is incomplete parameters: without the position ratios on both sides and the holding period, it is difficult to judge the strategy's intent; the exchanged amount cannot be directly treated as margin, dividing the two amounts to calculate leverage will cause a logic error.
If I were to revise this analysis, I would separate the address label and strategy judgment. Next, I want to see how the position ratios change, and I won’t speculate on this wallet’s motivation for now. $SNXX Since its establishment in 1971, the Nasdaq U.S. stock market's regular trading hours have long been from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time, with pre-market and after-hours trading available for many years, but the core trading framework has remained unchanged for over forty years. This December, this pattern will undergo a major change—Nasdaq will officially launch the "23/5" trading system on December 6, leaving only a 1-hour daily market close window, with the remaining 23 hours open for continuous trading.
The newly added night trading session (Eastern Time 9:00 PM to 4:00 AM the next day) corresponds to Beijing Time 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM during standard time, perfectly covering the main trading hours of the A-share market. This means that U.S. stock price changes will no longer occur only after the A-share market closes, and the cross-market pricing transmission path may shift from "overnight gaps" to "real-time intraday linkage." Just woke up from a nap and checked the $ZEC contract data, and it really woke me up. The market looks dead, but from the data, it’s like the manipulative whales have custom-built a meat grinder for the bulls!
Look at the current candlesticks: from 1695 down, the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are all suppressed by moving averages, a typical slow bearish decline. But strangely, as the price keeps falling, open interest is still creeping up, and the funding rate suddenly rose to about 0.08%.
What does this mean? Retail investors are still frantically bottom-fishing. Despite the drop, bulls stubbornly keep adding leverage and are even willing to pay such a high fee to the shorts. Looking at the long-short account ratio, bulls still hold the overwhelming majority.
In crypto, as long as the bulls don’t die, the downtrend won’t end. When the whales see so much fat below, will they kindly pump the price? Absolutely not. Most likely, they will smash down a big bearish candle to blow out all these high-leverage bulls before the bottom is reached.
My advice: don’t try to guess the bottom. Entering now is just giving money to the whales. Control your impulses and wait until these bulls are completely desperate before picking up the bloodied chips.
This is just my personal analysis and not investment advice! Do you currently hold any long positions in ZEC?
$ZEC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Looking at Brother Ba Bai's tens of thousands in floating losses on his financial management orders and the dead fish market, my scalp tingles.
$BTC BTC is stuck at 75834, $ETH ETH is halted at 2236, the 1-hour moving average system is fully pressing down, indicators are extremely stuck below the zero axis, with no upward momentum. After the crash, $SOXL is lying dead at 45.79, without even a decent rebound.
Looking at this real trading data, it's suffocating. Long positions with 19x and 17x leverage, BTC floating loss over 30,000 dollars, ETH floating loss 15,000 dollars. Under the heavy pressure and stubborn holding in full position mode, even though the 20x long position below earned 180,000 dollars, it is still dragged into panic by this bottomless pit.
This kind of extreme sunk cost trap completely violates the most basic profit-loss ratio principle. Under extremely depleted liquidity, this fragile chip structure is very prone to triggering a long-liquidation cascade. The market shows no right-side signals, and is very likely to break below the previous low, completing a brutal liquidity liquidation.
Only by crossing the cycle can one perfectly escape and soar freely. Let's all wish for that together. SanDisk (SNDK): A record-breaking earnings report, 40% evaporated in five trading days
On October 29, SanDisk reported revenue of $11.03 billion (year-over-year +378%) and a gross margin of 85.1%, yet its stock price fell from about $1330 to $806 by November 5, a single-day plunge of 22.26%, with trading volume more than triple the 20-day average. The trigger was not the performance but the increased regulatory risks for data centers after the midterm elections, combined with concentrated liquidation of hedge funds' AI positions. RSI dropped to around 24, breaking below the 200-day moving average. NAND capital expenditure on the supply side remains conservative, but there are no short-term conditions for spot prices to stop falling. Pricing is driven by sentiment and positions, not contracts.
Not investment advice. Weekend Strategy: Defense First, Wait for Confirmation
This week's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, boosting the probability of rate hikes, putting pressure on risk assets, with leveraged liquidations exceeding $1 billion, and Bitcoin ETF net outflows totaling $870 million over four days. Strategy tone: defense first, wait for confirmation.
$BTC is repeatedly testing the bottom around 75,000, a short-term "life-or-death line," with resistance above at 77,300 and 80,000. After the negative news landed, it did not continue to drop, so short-term recovery is possible, but it is not advisable to short at the support level; wait for stabilization signals.
$ETH is weaker, with continuous ETF outflows, and the price is hovering at the upper edge of the dense zone between 2,220 and 2,260. This area is a short-term iron bottom; a break below points to 2,000; rebound resistance is between 2,350 and 2,400. Observe volume and stabilization before taking a position.
$SNDK, despite Micron's record earnings and a price-to-earnings ratio of about 5 times, still faces selling pressure, indicating the market prices in unsustainable storage cycle profits. SanDisk's stock split does not change fundamentals; the key factors are cloud vendor procurement and NAND prices. It is not advisable to catch the falling knife in the short term; wait for stabilization on the right side.
Google's forward P/E ratio has dropped to 18 times, below the ten-year average. Cloud business provides a buffer, but the "AI eroding search" narrative has not been disproven. Cheap valuation does not equal catalyst readiness; wait for marginal improvement in search monetization before positioning.
Overall, keep positions light. Next week's CPI is a key node for whether risk appetite can recover.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC has really been struggling with the 365-day moving average lately!
I looked back at the 2023 market to compare and found something quite interesting. Back then, after BTC broke above the 365-day moving average, although there were some pullbacks, it rarely fell back repeatedly like it does now. After that, it went on to start a big bull run.
This time, however, it just barely got above it for a few days before being pushed back down, going back and forth several times! Currently, BTC is around $76,000, with the 365-day moving average at about $76,570. It's only a few hundred dollars away, but it just can't hold above it. Honestly, this kind of movement is a bit frustrating. I still hope it can reclaim this moving average soon, preferably holding above it steadily for several days, and not just briefly touching it and retreating!
After all, historically, it's rare for BTC to break above the moving average at the start of a bull run and then repeatedly lose it again. Whether this stalemate can be broken depends on the next few days.For me, when judging liquidity inflection points, the biggest fear is that the odds look tempting, but the basis for judgment only supports one day. According to DefiLlama data, the total circulating supply of USD stablecoins across the network is about $293.7 billion, with a daily increase of $854 million but a weekly decrease of $4.509 billion.
My judgment is: this news raises the probability that "capital contraction may slow down," but it is not enough to treat "continuous inflow of new funds" as the main theme. It has observational value, but as evidence of a market reversal, its weight is light.
The reason is straightforward: the daily increase indicates the direction changed in the most recent day, while the weekly decrease shows the previous gap still exists. The two time windows are not contradictory. An increase in stablecoin supply is usually seen as capital inflow, but the supply data itself does not tell me whether this money is ready to bear volatility.
According to my speculation, if the subsequent incremental increase continues and is accompanied by improved risk asset absorption, then this rebound is more worthy of attention; if it is just a one-day increase followed by continued contraction, the optimistic expectation formed around "capital has returned" is not worthwhile. I would rather have a lower odds of front-running than count noise into the win rate.
Faced with this combination of daily increase and weekly decrease, when judging liquidity inflection points, do people value the win rate of waiting for sustained confirmation more, or the odds of making an early judgment?The seven giants of the US stock market have now all formally opposed OKX-ICE's tokenized stocks, with the opposition list growing to 67 companies. The innovation exemption has given exchanges a new channel, but large-cap companies are individually expressing their refusal, making it uncertain which stocks will be available when the platform launches. The technology for tokenized assets has long been easy; the difficulty lies in obtaining compliance consent from the issuers.Rich Rines Exit, Revenue Buyback Unfulfilled: Is CORE's "Decentralized Handover" a Relief or Abandonment?
Core DAO officially announced that key early contributors Rich Rines and Brendon Sedo are stepping down from their DAO positions. The official statement framed this as a landmark step toward decentralization transformation, but market doubts continue to ferment: the announcement only declared personnel exit without providing a clear timetable for transferring treasury and underlying code permissions.
Coupled with the previously promised revenue buyback plan that has yet to materialize, along with underlying reward vulnerabilities, the large-scale b14g token theft, and Bithumb's planned delisting, investors can't help but ask: is this handover truly a system upgrade, or are core members abandoning ship after risk concentration erupts?
The most important aspect of decentralization transformation is the transfer of power, not just personnel resignation. Simply handing block production rights to validators while core development and multi-signature treasury control remain in the original small circle makes the so-called power delegation seem more like crisis PR. Within the sector, Babylon and Merlin continue to seize BTCFi market share, and the project's narrative appeal is steadily declining.
When the revenue buyback expectation that once supported the token price falls through, combined with core personnel departures, the market finds it difficult to interpret this personnel change purely positively. A paper-based decentralized handover, if lacking verifiable concrete actions, will only further erode the remaining consensus #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Nonfarm payrolls in October exceeded expectations, and bets on a December rate hike are heating up. The aftershocks of the nonfarm report haven't settled, with just 2 days left until the CPI countdown! BTC is consolidating around 75,000; will next week be a "dead cat bounce" or a "market reversal"? 📉🕰️
The impact of the 165,000 nonfarm jobs is still unfolding, the US Dollar Index has risen above 102.2, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 4.88%. CME data shows the probability of a December rate hike has surged to 75%-80%—the market is almost treating the hike as the "default option."
The hottest view in Orbit right now is: "A single strong nonfarm report is not enough to set the path; the real watershed is the November 10 CPI." I completely agree. The current market is very interesting: after the negative data landed, BTC didn't crash but instead repeatedly tested the 75,000-76,000 range. Is this a "dead cat bounce" after short covering, or is the market pricing in that the CPI won't be more hawkish?
My view is straightforward:
🔹 If the CPI again exceeds expectations, the previous low at 74,800 will likely not hold, turning the rate hike from a "bet" into a "fact," and risk assets will have to catch down.
🔹 If the CPI meets or falls below expectations, then the negative impact of the nonfarm report will be fully priced in, and 75,000 will be a short-term iron bottom.
The biggest taboo now is to heavily bet on direction. Wait for the CPI release and trade on the right side; that's better than guessing the size now.
Do you think the CPI will side with the bulls or the bears? Leave your judgment in the comments 👇Long-short ratio of 3 does not mean two out of three people are buying
On Sunday morning, $BTC was at 75769, fluctuating back and forth by over two hundred dollars overnight.
How this number is calculated: a long-short ratio of 3 is the ratio of the number of positions or holders, not the ratio of funds.
One person opening a large position can raise this number.
At the moment it triggered: nearly 100 liquidations in 6 hours, with 314,000 long positions and 4,000 short positions.
The price didn’t drop much, but almost all liquidated positions were longs.
This indicates many people crowded on the same side, and a slight price movement is enough to wipe out a batch.
$ETH has a long-short ratio of 3.27, $SOL 3.76, all three crowded on the long side.
When people crowd on one side, the price doesn’t need to drop much to clear positions.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $BTC $ETH Bitcoin $BTC latest price is $75,799, down 0.19% in 24 hours, Ethereum $ETH at $2,234.69, down 0.47%. Over the past three days, they have dropped 5.93% and 7.95% respectively, and within seven days, down 2.51% and 1.27%. The current price is near the recent weekly low, with Bitcoin at 14.4% within the range and Ethereum at 11.7%, both close to the lower edge. This sideways movement appears after continuous pullbacks, indicating that selling pressure has not further intensified for now, but it cannot be said to have stabilized either.
Market sentiment is bearish, yet the price has not been pushed further down. Community discussions focus on continuous outflows from ETF funds, the transfer of stolen funds from Binance, and regulatory changes after the Democrats took control of Congress. These negative factors exist, but the price barely moved. Part of the reason is that leveraged positions have already decreased, with open interest down 1.42% in 24 hours, and liquidation amounts only about $60 million, which is 70% less than the previous day, indicating that the recent declines have cleared out a lot of floating positions. Although funding rates are still positive, Bitcoin at 0.0087% and Ethereum at 0.0061% are negligible; bulls are not rushing to add leverage, and bears are not aggressively counterattacking. The long-short ratio of 58 to 42 looks more like a wait-and-see stance rather than a directional choice. The Fear and Greed Index at 26 is low; the market is fearful but hesitant to make big moves.
$ZEC #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 过去24小时，清算数据讲了一个与“周末清淡”完全相反的故事：市场波动不大，$BTC 在75500至76100美元之间窄幅震荡，但多头仓位却持续被清扫，买入侧几乎没得到喘息机会。😮 全市场清算总额1.8亿美元，其中多头1.2亿、空头6000万——多空清算比达到2:1。这不是行情剧烈波动带来的被动出清，而是在低波动环境下，多头杠杆被反复挤压的典型结构。周六交易量本就稀薄，价格只需轻微下探，就能触发密集的多头止损，形成“波动小、清算多”的背离。 更值得注意的是，美国10月非农数据超预期，12月加息押注升温，但加密市场对此反应平淡。这说明当前$BTC的价格逻辑暂时脱离了宏观叙事的直接驱动，更多由内部杠杆结构主导。宏观利空没有砸出深度回调，多头却仍在被清算，反映的是仓位拥挤而非趋势崩塌。 我的判断是：市场低估了这种“低波动+多头持续出清”组合的含义。它意味着杠杆正在被有序释放，而非恐慌性抛售。若$BTC能守住75500一线并伴随清算量收敛，多头结构的修复信号就会浮现；反之，若清算继续偏向多头且价格跌破区间下沿，则说明挤压尚未结束。$ETH、$SOL等主流币种在周末同样缺乏独立行情，走势仍锚定$If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set "all contracts meeting the turnover threshold have not risen" as an environmental alert, rather than an entry signal. After learning quantitative trading, I increasingly fear directly translating a market description into an operation.🤖
This news flash is as of 11:00 Beijing time, taken from Hyperliquid perpetual contract public market data: contracts with a 24-hour turnover exceeding $20 million have all declined, with $ZEC down 6.86%, PUMP down 6.85%, LIT down 5.77%; BTC and ETH fell 0.26% and 0.36% respectively.
My judgment is that it is useful for identifying the current sample's weakness but insufficient for predicting the next direction. The rule can be written as: if all qualifying contracts have not risen, mark a weak environment once and wait for further observation, rather than automatically concluding "it will continue to fall."
The advantage of this rule is that it adds a turnover activity threshold to the observation, avoiding focusing only on anomalies in illiquid contracts. But the loophole is also in the threshold: turnover changes, and the selected list may also change. If the samples differ in continuous comparisons, the so-called "weakness expansion" may just be a change in the list, which is my methodological speculation.
Additionally, the 24-hour price change is a rolling window; the next reading improvement may simply be due to earlier declines moving out of the window. I will first record the sample list and statistical criteria to remind myself not to treat the screening results as conclusions about the entire market.ASTS Q3 Earnings Preview: Direct-to-Phone Commercialization Still Pending
The Q3 report released after the market close on November 9 is not the main focus. Consensus expects revenue around $46 million and a loss per share of about $0.4. Revenue still comes from gateway deliveries and government contracts; direct-to-phone service has yet to contribute income. The market is watching the timeline. Progress is evident: on October 21, seamless switching between terrestrial and satellite networks was completed with AT&T, and Brazil obtained S-band and 700MHz licenses. Pressure is also concrete: SpaceX's approximately $8 billion acquisition of 800MHz spectrum awaits FCC approval, launches depend on external rockets, BlueBird 7 failed to reach orbit in April; on November 6, a $1.3 billion in-house rocket plan was announced, with the first flight expected by the end of 2028. The stock price has retreated about 75% from its high this year, with a price-to-sales ratio still near 200x. Piper downgraded to neutral with a $54 target price, Clear Street maintains $115. The core disagreement is whether commercialization can be realized by 2027. #ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露 $BTC is tugging back and forth around the 80,000 mark, looking lively but actually nervous[reference:0].
The rebound relies entirely on short-sellers being liquidated, ETF funds are still flowing out, and spot market has no real support[reference:1].
The panic index has dropped into the fear zone; many talk bullish, but few dare to take action[reference:2].
Looking at the A-shares, the index is up, but underneath it's tearing apart badly.
Mining hardware collectively crashes, $Cambridge Technology directly hits the daily limit down, and growth styles are suffocated.
Money is all hiding in defensive corners like agriculture, banking, and power; short-term plays have become safe havens,
$Zhejiang Literature & Film stubbornly hits five consecutive daily limit ups.
On one side, the crypto circle awaits new money to enter; on the other, the stock market plays fast-paced runs. It's lively but don't mistake rotation for a trend.$PONS has fallen terribly, and it was a sudden crash without any apparent reason. If we refer to the trend of $ORDI after it was listed on exchanges, which saw a 90% drop from its peak, then considering adding positions around 0.09 seems about right. Both PONS and ORDI represent similar narratives: one symbolizes the new Robinhood chain, and the other originally represented Bitcoin inscriptions. Both are super narratives in the early phase of a bear-to-bull transition. Later, when everyone thought Bitcoin inscriptions were nearly dead, ORDI made a stunning comeback with a multi-fold rally. Can PONS replicate ORDI's trajectory this time? My view is yes, but the vast majority won't be able to hold until that day.Nearly 100 million CORE evaporated overnight! Hard fork "confiscates" excess rewards, are users' coins still safe?
Previously, a major vulnerability was exposed in CORE's underlying reward mechanism, with about 255 million future block rewards prematurely released in a short period. The project team initiated an emergency hard fork, reclaiming 186 million excess tokens through on-chain state adjustments, but about 69 million had already circulated to external wallets and could not be directly recovered through this fork, becoming long-term outstanding chips.
The project team repeatedly emphasized: this upgrade is forward-looking and does not roll back ordinary users' transactions; the principal of ordinary holders and stakers is not directly erased. However, the core controversy is not whether ordinary users' assets were confiscated, but the governance authority issue: with the cooperation of a few validator nodes, the project team can directly modify account balances and intervene in the on-chain ledger.
This breaks many investors' inherent perception of public chains being "immutable." Although this cleanup only targeted maliciously overflowed tokens, this capability itself plants a trust risk. Coupled with subsequent b14g coin theft incidents, exchange deposit and withdrawal restrictions, and the expected delisting from Bithumb, the market continues to worry: in extreme future cases, could a hard fork be used again to intervene in ordinary users' assets?
The on-paper funds are temporarily safe, but the trust fracture in the decentralization narrative is already difficult to repair. Technically, overflow chips can be recovered, but the consensus-level damage has truly occurred.