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Let me first do a straightforward calculation: how much are the saved fees, how much does redemption cost, and can the exit be smooth? Without understanding these, even if it carries the label of being on-chain, I wouldn't feel it's more cost-effective.
Uniswap announced the launch of the first permissioned asset on AMM. GromaCorp, through v4's Hook, directly integrates real estate issuance and redemption into the protocol and performs compliance checks at the protocol level. However, Groma's tokenized securities are only available to qualified U.S. investors and users outside the U.S.
I think this is a positive development for compliant asset integration, but it doesn't mean ordinary players have a guaranteed profit path. Embedding compliance checks into the protocol helps reduce onboarding friction; however, participation has thresholds, and being on AMM doesn't guarantee sufficient liquidity. If redemption is not smooth, on-chain transactions, no matter how convenient, are hard to trust. I would first carefully review the eligibility, fees, and redemption rules to be more cautious. Would you wait for the mechanism to stabilize for safety, or are you willing to try and take risks under the premise of meeting eligibility?After the 2018 midterm elections, BTC dropped from $6,400 to $3,200 in less than 40 days, exactly halving.
This week's post-election movement in the US stock market is almost identical to back then: a big surge the day after the election, followed by a 5.5% drop in the Nasdaq in one day, the largest single-day decline in 18 months. BTC reversed from 81,000 back to 76,000.
In my last analysis, the scenario was: after the election, a surge to around 80,000, then a pullback after the positive news was fully priced in. That step is now complete.
But a few things this week have made me downgrade my outlook:
The rebound was pushed back before reaching the 50-day moving average;
ETH has already broken below its previous low first;
The Federal Reserve's probability of a rate hike in December remains around 75% after the US stock market plunge;
And a historical pattern after rate hikes: in two samples, BTC dropped to a price 20% lower than the rate hike day price.
So in the detailed article, I did several things:
Mapped the 2018 timeline onto this year;
Recalculated the probabilities of four possible scenarios;
Clarified why $40,000 is worth using to test position sizing but not worth waiting for as a buy point.
The conclusion is here first: the timing window for the final drop remains unchanged, from mid-November to mid-December, but the price range has shifted down a notch, prepare for $60,000 to $73,000.
The first test will be whether $75,900 holds at the weekly close at 8 AM next Monday.
The full analysis is in the referenced long article, worth sharing.$BTC $ETH
Yesterday's big dip in BTC was basically caused by over-leveraging, leading to a self-inflicted crash.
Looking at the market, BTC quickly dropped from above $80,000, breaking below $76,000 directly, with over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions. This kind of drop isn't a slow sell-off but more like a chain reaction of forced liquidations among bulls.
The trigger was unusual on-chain activity. TRUMP transferred over 4,000 BTC to exchanges, and the market's immediate reaction was to sell, instantly tightening sentiment.
The real amplification of the drop came from the futures side. Previously, long leverage above $80,000 was stacked too densely; once the price broke the key level, forced liquidations had to sell, pushing prices lower and triggering more liquidations, creating a death spiral.
Now, the $75,000-$77,000 range is a short-term critical zone; if it holds, it's a consolidation, but if it doesn't, the price will look for support lower.
$SOL #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Conclusion first: Yesterday at 23:00, the 1H candle for $PONS had a trading volume of 4.89 million USD, which is 6.5 times the median of 740,000 USD for 100 1H candles. It opened at 0.2059, dropped to 0.1856, and closed at 0.1899. In 24 hours, it fell by 18.5%, with the current price at 0.1867.
Three figures indicate this is a bull retreat, not new short entry:
① Open interest dropped from 9.64 million USD to 7.54 million, down 21.8%;
② Funding rate has been stuck at the floor price of 0.00005 for 14 consecutive periods, bulls are paying but the amount is minimal, shorts are not crowded;
③ Perpetual 24-hour volume is 25 million, spot only 4.9 million, and the top 20 spot buy orders total only 70,000 USD — perpetual sets the price at 5 times the spot.
Looking at fundamentals: Robinhood Chain officially announced yesterday that TVL surpassed 1 billion USD. But the launchpad fees are the real buyback wallet — Pons V2 daily fees peaked at 11.05 million USD on September 5, averaged 520,000 USD daily in October, and 220,000 USD daily in November, down 98%. During the same period, the token price dropped from the ATH of 0.971 to 0.1867, down 80.8%.
The chain is rising, the token is falling, the wallet is shrinking. Do you think 0.15 is the bottom, or will you only dare to buy when daily fees return to 500,000? $PONSThis time, it's not the gamblers who are dumping.
Those trading contracts blew up 1.08 billion in two days and have already left the game.
Now, the ones selling coins are the spot holders.
The day before, they were still buying:
Net buying of 141 million in one day.
The next day, they turned hostile:
Sellers outnumbered buyers by 10%, the fiercest in a month.
Forced liquidations are people being pushed out,
Selling coins is people leaving on their own.
So, the latter is more frightening.
There's also an unresolved risk:
A wallet related to Trump media
Transferred 4,259 bitcoins into an exchange, about 340 million USD.
Although it's not confirmed they intend to sell, they have a debt due on November 30.
Currently around 76,000.
If it falls below 75,000, the next target is 73,200.
In the next two days, watch two things:
Whether those holding real coins will keep selling.
Whether the 340 million in the exchange moves.
Do you think they've finished selling?#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 ⚠️ Forward-looking analysis only, not investment advice
Moderna (MRNA) Q3 is the seasonal sales window for respiratory vaccines this quarter. The market expects revenue of about $890 million, still maintaining a loss, but the loss is expected to narrow compared to Q2 (net loss of $800 million). The core revenue focus is on the increased administration of COVID-19 and RSV seasonal vaccines, which forms the short-term performance base.
The company continues to strictly control expenses and optimize costs. The cash burn rate is a key observation point, as it relates to the sustainability of pipeline R&D. The long-term main focus remains the tumor mRNA vaccine Intismeran, developed in collaboration with Merck, with market attention on regulatory submission pace and commercialization plans.
Short-term vaccine demand remains weak with considerable competitive pressure; the core catalyst for the stock price is not vaccine revenue but progress in tumor therapy implementation. If vaccination falls short of expectations or cash burn exceeds expectations, valuation will be under pressure. A brief analysis of BTC short-term trends (strategy suggestions) from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action
Comprehensive judgment
Dow Theory confirms a bull trap #2 followed by an accelerated bearish trend
Chan Theory's first buy at 75,607 was falsified, downward stroke continuation
Wave Theory's C wave 5th sub-wave is extending, target 72,000-74,000
Volume-price relationship - 3.905 billion/32.6 billion = capitulation #2, intensity over 10-30 times
Order flow extremely oversold + vacuum, risk-reward ratio biased bearish
Price action bull trap #2 + epic crash, complete bearish structure.
Six-dimensional synthesis: The "ultimate shakeout + V reversal" on 11-04 was falsified as bull trap #2, C wave 5th sub-wave decline accelerates, target 72,000-74,000. 75,448 is the last defense line; breaking it opens the abyss; holding and breaking out above 78,000 with volume may end the six-week decline. Currently in a recovery phase after capitulation #2, buying has not yet entered.
$BTC #星球日报 November 6, 2026, Issue 114 Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis In the previous issue, I bet on a scenario, in which the second step was written as follows: After the election results came out, BTC would surge to between 79,500 and 80,600, then the positive news would be fully priced in and it would pull back. What actually happened this week was: On the night of the election, the highest point reached near 81,000, a bit higher than expected; on Thursday, the US stock market dropped 5.5% overnight, and BTC fell back to 76,000. The second step of the scenario was completed. I have to admit that on Wednesday, when oil prices fell below 100 and the Dow Jones surged, I once raised the probability of a "direct strengthening". But just one day later, the US stock market gave the answer. This also reminded me that one day’s news is not worth changing a week’s judgment. This issue puts together the changes before and after the election, the 2018 template, several new historical experiences, and on-chain data to update the roadmap for the next five weeks. 01 What exactly happened in these three days? November 3 was the midterm election. According to multiple media reports, the Republicans lost, and the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress. On November 4, the market initially traded on the "good news". The reason was straightforward: a change in Congress means added constraints on the executive branch, reducing the likelihood of the Iran war escalating. Brent crude oil fell from the October 23 high of 116 dollars to below 100 dollars, intraday reaching around 94 dollars; US stocks surged; BTC liquidated about 378 million dollars worth of short positions within an hour, and the spot ETF also ended a three-consecutive-Today's institutional fund movements $BTC Huang Licheng has been liquidated again. This time, the operation path is worth everyone's attention: he sold 15 NFTs, raised $223,000, and exhausted it all within 4 days; meanwhile, the act of selling these NFTs itself resulted in a book loss of $505,000.
First, look at the numbers. Raising $223,000 to last 4 days means the position consumes over $50,000 margin daily. For these 4 days, he paid a liquidation discount of $505,000 — the cost is about 2.3 times the funds raised, in exchange for just four days.
Next, look at the loss distribution. Hyperliquid has accumulated losses of $37.4 million, papertrade_xyz losses of $909,000. The former can no longer be explained by "bad luck"; it is the result of long-term, repeated, leveraged directional bets.
The mechanism is clear: on-chain perpetuals have no buffer zone. NFTs are among the least liquid assets; order execution takes time, and the liquidation engine only looks at margin ratio, cutting positions as soon as the time comes. Using slow assets to cover fast liabilities, the time difference itself is a source of loss.
For high-volatility assets like $HYPE, being right or wrong on direction is only half the story; the other half is whether your replenishment speed can keep up with the liquidation speed.
One point worth considering: a person can lose tens of millions of dollars continuously on a public ledger, and the entire process has almost no impact on market sentiment. On-chain transparency brings observability, not early warning.#AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ Revenue $269.9M, within guidance range and close to market consensus (slightly near the median), not a significant beat; data center revenue significantly increased year-over-year, 800G achieved expected sequential growth, 1.6T shipments started in small quantities at the end of Q3, contributing very little this quarterYesterday, the US stock market looked quite uncomfortable.
The Nasdaq dropped more than 5 points, chips fell even harder, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 12% outright. This was because the Democrats swept the midterm elections, and the market suddenly felt that data centers might not be as easy to build.
Texas changed leadership, local areas complain about high electricity costs and disturbances, so the previous story of unlimited expansion no longer holds. The AI sector is overcrowded again, so any slight disturbance causes a sell-off.
I personally think this wave of emotion is overdone. Data centers will slow down and become more difficult, but I don't believe they will be stopped outright. The US won't be foolish enough to cut computing power themselves. What really got hit was the previously overheated premium; when crowded trades collapse, it happens this fast.
On the other hand, the A-shares actually rose a bit yesterday, with solar and related sectors quite active. Domestic funds haven't completely followed the frenzy.
This doesn't mean AI is finished; it's just that the previously smooth gains have been forcibly pressed down. Chips with real demand and barriers, if they just slow down rather than go to zero, will have a cleaner pullback; those relying purely on new construction stories carry greater risk. The relatively independent sectors like new energy in A-shares might feel more comfortable.
Don't rush to bottom-fish or scare yourself. First, watch whether approvals actually happen and whether companies really cut capital expenditures. Volatility will continue, so first sort out the most crowded parts.
#USStockEarningsSeason Short-term sentiment VS long-term fundamentals, I will analyze this news separately. At the close of the US stock market, the Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, the VIX fear index rose 69.66%; AI concept stocks generally fell, Astera Labs dropped 19.62%, AMD fell 17.26%. Just looking at these numbers, it does make one a bit anxious.
But my judgment is: the short-term risk alert is more justified than the conclusion that "AI's long-term logic has failed." On one hand, the broad market and AI stocks falling together indicates the pressure is not concentrated on a single company; on the other hand, a single day's drop cannot replace fundamental evidence such as orders and profits. Mapping this to the crypto AI sector, my speculation is that if risk-off sentiment continues to spread, projects lacking business support and mainly relying on narratives may face more pressure, but it cannot be directly assumed they will fall in sync.
I will first observe whether sentiment continues to deteriorate, then look at business evidence. Facing this decline, do you lean towards focusing on short-term risks first, or on the long-term realization of AI companies' profits?#Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Groves Isotope Test Reactor (Texas): First criticality achieved on 2026-08-05
◦ It is a low-power test reactor, not the power-supplying Aurora unit, mainly used to gain operational experience and isotope business (aiming for isotope business revenue near 2027, which is Oklo's early cash flow). Isotopes can be sold separately (medical, industrial isotopes), representing a commercial revenue stream reached earlier than power generation.#IRENQ1AICloudDelivery Roberts says "a wider spread barely moves the economics" because customer prepayments of ~50% combined with GPU-backed financing at ~8% have covered 96% to more than 100% of GPU costs on recent deals with paybacks of ~2 years#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ From April to June 2026, the group's net profit was ¥347.3 billion, down 18% year-on-year, but significantly higher than the market expectation of ¥166 billion. What supported the market was not the AI core business, but Intel's shareholding unrealized gains of about ¥1.3 trillion — a one-time revaluation, not replicable.
The real main line is the Vision Fund: pre-tax profit was only ¥5.43 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%; investment income was ¥255.8 billion, down 64.8% year-on-year. OpenAI's cumulative book investment is $44.6 billion, with a fair value of $89.6 billion, but since the valuation remained unchanged from the end of March, there was zero profit or loss contribution this quarter.
Here lies the problem: Masayoshi Son has bet all chips on OpenAI, with cumulative commitments raised to $64.6 billion, but the assets are unlisted and illiquid, while SoftBank must rely on bond issuance and Arm equity pledges for continuous capital injection. As of November, the five-year CDS approached 383 basis points, a three-year high; S&P outlook is negative. The market worries not about "whether OpenAI is worth it," but "whether SoftBank can wait it out."
Arm is the only ballast: Q1 revenue was $1.29 billion, up 22% year-on-year, with a gross margin over 93%, but SoftBank has pledged its shares, effectively leveraging certain assets to back uncertain ones.
So the conclusion of this earnings report is very clear: the AI narrative remains intact, but financial quality is weakening. $SOFTBANK Last night, the Nasdaq dropped 5.5% overnight, and this morning Japan and South Korea also fell over 5%, with Bitcoin simultaneously down 5.8%.
Don't panic yet, take a look at these two charts before deciding whether to sell 🔥 Worth 1 million USD
First, look at the Nasdaq: it follows the US election cycle (Nasdaq data since 1971)
1. The year before the election is the strongest: out of 13 times, it rose 11 times, averaging +30%
2. The midterm election year is the weakest: out of 13 times, it only rose 7 times, which is this year
3. It strengthens right after the election: in the 6 months after the midterm election day, it rose all 13 times, median +15%
Next, look at Bitcoin: since 2020, it has followed the Nasdaq
4. When the Nasdaq falls, Bitcoin almost always follows: in 12 months when the Nasdaq dropped over 5% in a single month, Bitcoin fell in the same month 11 times
5. When the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin doesn't necessarily rise: so far this year, Nasdaq is +4.6%, Bitcoin is -13%. Also, since 2017, in 6 major tops and bottoms, Bitcoin always turned before the Nasdaq
This kind of single-day drop over 5.5% in the Nasdaq last night has occurred 14 times since 1971 (rounds less than two months apart count as one): 10 rounds saw the Nasdaq close higher six months later; the other 4 rounds coincided with economic recessions.
The scenario to be most cautious about is 2018: also a midterm election year, the Nasdaq peaked at the end of August then dropped 24%; Bitcoin fell from $6,400 on midterm election day to a bottom of $3,200 on December 15.From a fundamental perspective, the company posted a net loss of about $800 million in Q2, with demand for the COVID-19 vaccine continuing to decline. The RSV vaccine faces competition from Pfizer and GSK, and its volume ramp-up is slower than expected, resulting in considerable short-term commercial pressure. However, 93% of market traders are betting on the earnings report to beat expectations. The core logic is not about blockbuster vaccine sales but two points: ongoing cost control and expectations for the mRNA oncology treatment pipeline.
Q3 is the peak season for respiratory vaccine vaccinations in Europe and the US during autumn and winter, a traditional sales window. The market will focus on actual shipment data for updated strain COVID-19 vaccines and RSV vaccines, which are currently the only segments contributing cash flow. If vaccine revenue exceeds analysts' consensus expectations and the loss narrows, the stock price will receive short-term support; conversely, if vaccination demand falls short of expectations, revenue continues to weaken, and losses widen further, the stock price is likely to come under pressure.
Overall judgment: The short-term trading nature is very strong, representing a "distress reversal expectation" scenario. Its profitability cycle is still far off, making it unsuitable for heavy long-term positions at this stage and more suited to event-driven trading. If vaccine sales rebound and cost control takes effect, combined with positive news from the oncology pipeline, the earnings report is likely to beat expectations and push the stock up; but if any one of these falls short, speculative funds will quickly exit. On the risk side, fierce competition in respiratory vaccines, clinical trial failures, and ongoing cash burn are potential negatives, so participation requires strict position management and stop-loss measures. #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 $BTC
The quantum attack scheme was brought up again today, but I don't think it should be conflated with the current sharp drop. Bitcoin Core developers are discussing plans to defend against future quantum attacks, which is worth monitoring, but it is not the sudden selling pressure that appeared tonight.
OKX spot BTC is around $76,049, with a 24-hour high of $80,843 and low of $75,200, down about 5.6% from the opening; perpetual positions are about $2.65 billion, with a funding rate of 0.00276%, not yet at a level where bulls are clearly paying a high premium. The drop is severe, but positions have not given a consistent panic signal.
I put the quantum issue on the long-term risk list; in the short term, let's see if there is sustained volume following the sell-off. The technical approach can be debated slowly, but positions should not use worries from ten years later to find direction today.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $TAO has dropped 80%, but is the Bittensor ecosystem really getting worse?
TAO has retraced more than 80% from its peak, and the price indeed looks bad. But interestingly, the commercial revenue of the Bittensor ecosystem is still continuously growing.
According to SubConnect data, the annualized external revenue of the Bittensor subnet increased from about $35 million in early September to around $50 million in October, and is now close to $70 million, doubling in just two months.
The revenue mainly comes from computing power leasing and AI inference services, indicating that the ecosystem is gradually moving from pure hype to real commercial applications.
Of course, don’t rush to call a reversal yet. Currently, the ecosystem’s revenue still has a significant gap compared to the over $300 million in annual token releases. What really matters is not just revenue growth, but whether this revenue can continue to expand and ultimately be reflected in the value of TAO.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ Oklo's first Aurora fast reactor has already started construction at the Idaho National Laboratory, and the company's own goal is to achieve first operation by 2028, assuming smooth regulatory approval and construction. That means there are about two years left from now; the real revenue-contributing project is the 1.2 GW site in Ohio, with phase one earliest operation in 2030.
But on the books, it’s still "burning money for the future"
In the first half of this year (up to the end of June), Oklo's total revenue was only $1.2 million, mainly from engineering consulting services, with a net loss of $81.6 million; fortunately, it holds about $3 billion in cash and almost no long-term debt, so burning cash for a few years is not a problem. Strictly speaking, it is currently a "pre-commercial" company: power revenue is only expected after the first reactor starts generating electricity in 2028.
How to view this distance
The three biggest variables on the path to commercialization are: first, whether the NRC Combined License Application (COLA) can be approved on schedule, which is a hard threshold; second, the scale supply of HALEU fuel, as the US supply chain is still very weak; third, Switch's 12 GW is only an intention, and whether it can turn into binding orders depends on project milestones. The positive side is that policies are clearly loosening, and real cash prepayments from companies like Meta have also alleviated capital expenditure pressure for expansion. Market Observation: Short Covering Dominates, Key Resistance Awaits Verification
$BTC: Rebound Driven by Liquidations, Increment Still Insufficient
BTC rose about 4.3% in 24 hours, with approximately $320 million in short positions liquidated within 30 minutes early morning, pushing the price back above $80,000. This rally appears more like passive buying from short stop-losses rather than sustained new long entries. ETF net outflow over three days totaled $1.16 billion, indicating continued pressure on capital. Until $81,300 is effectively reclaimed, the rebound is considered a correction.
$ETH: Sharp Rise Enters Trapped Zone
ETH rose about 6% in 24 hours, climbing from $2,172 to $2,428, showing strength on the 4-hour chart. However, the $2,430–$2,450 range is a previous dense trapped zone with heavy sell pressure from unlocking positions above. RSI is around 55, Stochastics have reached 85 in the overbought zone, reducing short-term upside risk/reward. Support is first seen at $2,411, with attention on how the $2,430 area digests supply.
$ZEC: Upgrade Pending, Shorts Squeezed First
ZEC rose over 14% in 24 hours. The NU7 upgrade is expected to activate around 9:30 PM Eastern Time, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. Approximately 12,000 Sprout pool ZEC will become permanently unspendable. #美中期选举后AI数据中心监管分歧引发行情波动 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 I almost got carried away by the intuition that "capital withdrawal means bearish sentiment." Most people interpret net outflows as negative news at first glance, but I want to ask: how well does this measure really reflect how bad the sentiment is?
According to Farside Investors data, the US Zcash spot ETF had a net outflow of about $11 million on November 5th Eastern Time. Thinking about it the other way, I consider this a negative signal for the ETF's capital flow, but it's not enough evidence to judge $ZEC as weak overall.
First, the data doesn't provide the total fund size; the same outflow amount can have very different impacts depending on the proportion. Second, the reason for redemption is missing, so directly interpreting the capital movement as a loss of confidence in the privacy sector skips the causality verification. This is my judgment, not an excuse for the outflow.
If you could only add one piece of data, would you choose fund size or redemption reason? I welcome those who think this is enough to determine bearishness to debate.11/6 Today I'm here to warn about risks for $BTC:
Please prepare mentally in advance, take it step by step.
Although BTC finally went up in a V-shape,
it probably isn't a V-shaped reversal; the bullish structure hasn't formed yet.
The sharp rise is to set up for a sharper drop, to re-accumulate sufficient liquidity.
This wave is about the election results landing, with the Democrats sweeping both chambers. Many rushed in to short BTC, and the market makers pushed the price up to squeeze shorts.
If nothing unexpected happens, the market makers' script for BTC this wave should be: break through 818-820, then lure bulls with a few days of oscillation, creating a false breakout of the trendline. After bulls enter on the trendline breakout or MACD golden cross, there will be a big drop, breaking below the 750 low point completely.Don't treat the Democrats taking both chambers as a bull market starting gun. Expectations have already been fully priced in; the actual outcome is more like a window for realization, with the real test being political tug-of-war and regulatory details.
Look at $BTC: the election market sentiment has been overdrawn in advance. The pattern of a shakeout followed by recovery after the election cannot be ignored. The executive and legislature check each other, bill progress is slow, and policy uncertainty is rising; once market sentiment weakens, bulls are prone to a stampede, and new lows are not impossible.
Look at $ETH: it acts more like an amplifier of risk appetite. Expectations of tighter regulation will suppress capital sentiment, and the previous high-cost lobbying effects will also be discounted. The ecosystem lacks new narratives; once risk-off sentiment rises, the decline could be amplified with limited resistance.
From a macro perspective, a divided Congress means limited fiscal stimulus space. Don't treat the election as a talisman; non-farm payrolls and inflation are the next hurdles. The high interest rate environment remains unchanged, and data volatility can disrupt the market at any time.
Look at $XAUT: with fiscal obstacles, sticky inflation, and central bank buying, safe-haven funds still have reasons to allocate here, and resilience is likely stronger than in the crypto space.
Summary: The election outcome marks the start of volatility, not a safety net. Resistance above remains; chasing highs is risky. Position control and guarding against spikes are paramount.$SPCX moved quite decisively this round. The idea given yesterday was to short on a rebound at 137–138. I was initially worried the position was a bit high, but it directly touched the range overnight and then reversed, hitting a low of 129, which is a few dollars more than my original target. Today it bounced back to 134.
I thought about this part: after the sharp drop, short positions were closed en masse, pushing the price up a bit, but this wasn’t due to anyone actively going long. However, the 134 level just can’t hold; the chips trapped above want to escape as soon as they break even, and buyers can’t hold them.
So, I’m still not bullish in the short term. I’ll consider entering a position again if it rebounds between 136–137, with the target still below 130. The non-farm payrolls report is imminent, and if the data really pushes up the probability of a December rate hike, this rebound could be wiped out at any time.
Nothing else much, just don’t push the volume too high—after a drop, a surge is usually just to get people on board.Everyone is hoping for an interest rate cut, thinking that once money loosens, crypto will rise.
But in the past eight years, there have been eight rate cuts,
and one month later, Bitcoin fell four times,
three times dropping more than 15%.
After the rate cut in September 2019, it dropped 35% in three months.
After the rate cut in September 2024, it rose 72% in three months.
Both were rate cuts, but one fell and the other rose.
The difference lies in two things.
First, look at whether Bitcoin moved before the news came out.
In June 2019, Bitcoin first surged to 13,970.
One month later, the Federal Reserve cut rates.
The good news had already been bought up; when the cut actually happened, it was time to sell.
So in July, September, and even October that year, with rate cuts,
Bitcoin kept falling until the end of the year.
Next, look at why the cut was made.
In March 2020, the cut was made because of a crisis.
The pandemic hit, and interest rates were slashed to zero.
When the news came out, Bitcoin first dropped 6%, then 22% a month later.
It took several months for money to slowly increase,
so it only rose back over 70% three months later.
September 2024 was different.
The economy wasn’t bad, and the Fed loosened a bit early.
With nowhere else to go, money ran to the riskiest place.
In three months, Bitcoin rose 72%.
The same rate cut,
one was due to a crisis, the other was a preemptive cut without crisis.
Now the market is betting on a rate hike on December 9.
What will happen on December 9? Don’t look at that day, look at November.
If Bitcoin has already fallen once before then, December 9 will just be a formality.
If it stays flat, that day will really hurt.
Currently, the probability of a prior drop is relatively high.The income from someone shouting a short position might be half of their short-selling profit. This matter itself is more worth watching than the direction.
Trader Ansem shorted SOL on Pump, with a Callout reward of about $36,000. The total viewpoint reward given by the platform to him is roughly equal to half the profit of this trade. Earning from the trade once, and earning from the viewpoint again, shouting calls has turned from a side job into a main business.
Rewards should be given for "good content," but once linked to "viewpoint validation," shouting calls becomes an independent business. This also explains a phenomenon: the more extreme the market, the more people publicly shouting calls, and the more absolute their tone.
His technical basis is well laid out: bearish engulfing on the monthly chart, simultaneous breakdowns on daily and weekly trends, plus a layer of bearish retest on Nasdaq futures. All three point to the same thing—not just a single coin weakening, but risk assets being drained together. So what he is shorting is not just SOL locally, but mainstream assets.
How to explain the recent rise? He himself says it’s a short squeeze. Shorts are too concentrated, prices pushed to key resistance levels, stop losses triggered in a chain reaction, which looks like a reversal but is actually fuel burning. His observation points are whether the daily chart can reclaim the weekly range and whether it will fall below $96.
Here is an uncomfortable question: when the viewpoint itself can be sold at a price, is the analysis you read a judgment or a position? The longs and shorts of the same person, and the longs and shorts they are willing to make public, are not necessarily the same thing. US Stock Sector Update: Energy Weakens, Pharmaceuticals Remain the Last Line of Defense Before the sharp decline in US equities, only the energy and pharmaceutical sectors managed to maintain relatively strong upward momentum. However, energy has now started pulling back, while pharmaceuticals continue trading near elevated levels, becoming the market's last remaining defensive sector. If pharmaceuticals also begin to weaken, it could provide a clearer signal that the broader market retreat is dIn my spare time, I checked the data for BTC, ETH, ZEC, and SOL again. Three of the four coins are trending down, with only ZEC turning green. This morning, I only followed the position of this one.
Have the three major mainstream coins all fallen? Not entirely. BTC dropped 5.51% in one day, but its position only decreased by 2.07%, making it the most resilient among the three; ETH fell the hardest, down 7.63%, with its position decreasing by 5.94%; SOL's position dropped the most deeply, 7.53%, with the price down 6.28%. If I were to say who will recover first, I’d look at BTC first, as its position is the most stable and it’s closest to 76,000, just half a step away from reclaiming.
Why is ZEC the one? It rose 0.82% in one day, with its position increasing by 2.82% in one hour. Its capital cost of 0.0201% is the highest among the four coins, and those chasing it are still bidding up aggressively 🔥; NU7 is still 45 blocks away, opening in less than an hour.
Fear and greed at 27, previously 51 in the last round, directly falling into the fear zone; despite the fear, the entire network’s position only decreased by 3.84% in one day, meaning money hasn’t fled. Sentiment moves faster than price, but positions haven’t followed suit.
Tonight at 21:30, the non-farm payrolls will be announced, with expectations of an increase between 59,000 and 65,000; yesterday’s ADP actual was 86,000, stronger than expected. If non-farm payrolls also come in strong, the hawkish tension will tighten again. The second proof from a certain An has not yet been released; it only arrived at the window during the day, so I’ll wait for it to land before commenting.
Thinking in reverse is the same: if non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, BTC will first test whether 75,600 can hold; if weaker, I’ll first look at the 77,200 area, following position and price, not sentiment 🎯Many people are still waiting for $BTC to retest the bottom in Q4, but I believe this time, it might not be necessary to wait.
From historical trends, BTC experiences three significant lows in each cycle.
The bottom structure in 2023 is almost identical to the pattern formed this year, especially the last two lows, both completed through liquidity sweeps.
What does this mean?
From a technical structure perspective, this market cycle may have already completed its bottoming process, and the bear market is over.
Currently, BTC has retraced about 13.5% from its all-time high, more like a synchronized deleveraging of risk assets influenced by the decline in U.S. stocks and the Nasdaq.
There are two prevailing market views right now:
Believe in seasonal patterns and wait for another bottom retest in Q4.
Believe in market structure and think the bottom has already formed.
I choose the second.
Seasonal patterns may change, but market structure is more reliable. I do not think BTC will create a new low in Q4.
If I am wrong, I will bear the corresponding losses.Storage stocks take a hit: the price hike tailwind begins to slow down
$SNDK fell more than 10% in 24 hours, AXTI also dropped over 10%, with U.S. semiconductor hardware stocks mostly in the red. The problem is not with the overall market but with the storage sector, which was overheated in the previous rally: the price hike story was too smooth, and once marginal expectations loosened, institutional profit-taking concentrated. Kioxia is also signaling that the momentum for flash memory price increases is weakening, and the consumer side is starting to resist high prices.
Coupled with the midterm election results, with the Democrats taking control of both chambers, expectations for stricter tech regulation are rising, and semiconductor hardware with high valuations is the first to be hit. $BTC $ETH remain relatively independent, but risk appetite contraction will still have a transmission effect.
This round of storage is moving from "storytelling" to "realization," so be cautious about chasing highs and first see if the price hikes can hold.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $BTC's recovery speed is accelerating.
It took 67 days to return to the price level before FTX's bankruptcy; but only 6 days to recover to the level before Binance was hacked.
The market's ability to absorb negative news has clearly strengthened, which also gives reason to believe that the bottom of this cycle may have already appeared.Trump really dragged down his own Meme coin this time 😂
✅ The Republican Party suffered a crushing defeat in the U.S. midterm elections
The Democrats took control of both the House and Senate in one fell swoop
Trump's political influence took a heavy hit
The namesake Meme coin $TRUMP also got hit
Yesterday, TRUMP hit a low of $1.215
Setting a new historical low
Down over 98% from its peak of more than $70
The most interesting thing is
BTC has already started to rebound
But TRUMP keeps plummeting……
I think this reflects
The further erosion of Trump's political premium
TRUMP was hyped from the start based on Trump's own influence
Power, attention, and political expectations almost entirely defined its narrative
Now that the Republicans have lost control of Congress
Trump will face greater resistance in pushing policies
And the Democrats may even investigate his family's crypto business
Naturally, this narrative isn’t as appealing anymore 😇
At the end of the day, the most valuable thing about a Meme is market consensus
Once consensus starts to crumble
Prices often fall harder than expected
Trump still has two years left in his presidential term
But TRUMP holders probably don’t want to stick with him till the end
#U.S. Midterm Elections: Democrats Win Control of Both Houses of Congress
If you find this interesting, please give a like 👍
If you think political Meme coins are extremely risky, press 1
If you’re still considering speculating on this kind of theme, press 2
#U.S. Stocks Plunge: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Hits Largest Single-Day Drop Since March 2020 US Stocks "Black Thursday": It's Not a Fundamental Collapse, It's Funds Being Forced to Liquidate
Last night and this morning, US stocks were bloodied:
S&P 500 fell 4.4%; Nasdaq 100 plunged 6.4%, marking the largest single-day drop since March 2020, with about $2.3 trillion in market value wiped out in one day; the chip index plunged 12%; VIX surged 70%
Individual stocks fared worse: Nvidia dropped nearly 4%, SanDisk, AMD, Qualcomm, and others fell over 10%
The core reason is not a sudden economic downturn but hedge funds liquidating
The market widely expects several funds are undergoing full liquidation, or "pods" within multi-strategy funds are being forced to close positions and unwind. Names involved include Axebrook, Walleye, Engineers Gate, Lone Pine, Millennium internal pods, Verition pod, Samlyn, with main actions being large redemptions, shutting down internal teams, and replacing PMs
Another underlying factor is a delayed political shockwave
After the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress, the market began to worry: the new legislative majority will tighten regulations on AI-related spending and data center construction
Goldman Sachs' analysis is straightforward: if by 2028 land, power, and cabinet supply cannot keep up due to approval restrictions, chip capacity will be relatively excessive, and prices supported by supply-demand gaps in storage will lose their support
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 🔍A long position in one trade, is it betting on the direction or just a small fluctuation? 0x58b279…211f3 opened a long of 200 $ZEC with 10x leverage, with a nominal value of about $263,900. I won’t directly take the large amount as a sign of strong confidence.
The interesting detail is this: based on the reference price, for every 1% price move against the position, the position loses about $2,639; if you estimate the initial margin by dividing the nominal value by the leverage, this eats up about 10%, not including fees. The scale amplifies the profit and loss amount, while the leverage compresses the space to wait for the judgment to be realized.
This is my speculation: this trade relies more on timely realization of short-term direction rather than slowly holding on. But since the data lacks the opening time series and the full margin situation is not visible, I won’t directly infer the liquidation price from the 10x leverage. Next, I will watch if it reduces position during adverse fluctuations, which can better indicate risk discipline than the opening amount."Macro Market Observation: The Oil Price Crash Is the Hidden Driver Behind BTC's Pullback to 80,000"
$BTC: After the election results were finalized, House Democratic Leader Jeffries announced plans to push for the repeal of Trump's tariffs and an end to the Iran war. Crude oil promptly plunged over 8%, the US dollar and US Treasury yields declined, and gold surged. For the crypto space, the key chain is "oil price drop → easing inflation pressure → lower probability of Fed rate hike in December → risk assets breathe a sigh of relief." Previously, the market feared "rising oil prices, rising inflation, and tightening rate hikes." Now that oil prices have crashed first, expectations for policy tightening have cooled. BTC's pullback to 80,000 is not just about election sentiment; the easing expectations brought by the oil price crash are also a hidden driver.
$ETH, $ZEC: The recovery of macro risk appetite will drive mainstream coins to move in tandem, but in the short term, it still depends on whether capital can continue to follow through. Don't mistake a single macro impulse for a trend reversal.
Summary: This rebound is the combined result of the election outcome and the oil price crash. BTC will be watched to see if it can hold above 80,000, and ETH and ZEC for the sustainability of their correlation. Macro positives can be referenced, but position sizing and stop-loss remain priorities. This is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice.On November 6, the Nasdaq plunged sharply, dragging down the entire tech growth sector, with $SOL included. Tonight, the October non-farm payroll data is coming, and market sentiment is cautious, mainly favoring short positions on rebounds.
【Today's Strategy】
Short entry range: layout at rebound 92.5—93.5
Stop loss set: above 94.5
Take profit set: 90.0—88.5
【Core Logic】
On the hourly level, there was a large-volume one-sided plunge, with short-term bears dominating. The 92.5-93.5 range is a pressure zone converted after a breakout, concentrating trapped sell pressure. The 88.0-88.5 range below is previous low support. After a sharp drop, there is a need for oversold correction. SOL's high beta attribute causes intense volatility; after a big drop, the overall trend remains weak, with limited rebound space. Strict stop loss management is advised. #SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 The trend of zec looks too much like a distribution trend $ZEC To be honest, this news reminds me of the old thought that "just changing direction can turn things around." Later I realized that being impatient is a trap itself.
According to Ember monitoring, a whale's long BTC position was liquidated, then they shorted TRUMP and got liquidated again, with a total loss of $740,000. I think the key point is not how hard it is to guess the direction, but that switching sides didn't eliminate the liquidation risk; even with a lot of money, you can't withstand it.
Now I stick to two rules: first, size positions based on the loss you can afford; second, stop trading after liquidation and don't rush to recover losses.$DRAM Support Bounce Bullish Momentum Building.
Leverage: 10x Max
Trade Setup: Long
Entry: 39.50 – 40.50
SL: 35.80
TP1: 42.50
TP2: 44.00
TP3: 46.50
Price held the 36.67 low after the sharp decline from 50.42 and is now showing a clear bounce with buyers stepping in. As long as 36.67–38.50 holds, this recovery has strong probability of extending toward the next resistance levels.
Buy and Trade $DRAM Just now: Hyperliquid Strategies recorded a profit of $620 million in Q3, mainly from unrealized gains, and has applied for a license to introduce Hyperliquid perpetual contracts to U.S. traders.2006: The Eve of Bitcoin, the Unknown "Crypto War"
In 2006, the world had not yet coined the term "crypto circle."
At that time, Bitcoin had not yet been born, and Satoshi Nakamoto was still an unused pseudonym. If you turned on your computer, dialed into the internet, and ventured into the corners of the deep web, you would see a small group of people endlessly debating in a mailing list called "Cypherpunk." They cared not about candlestick charts but about privacy, freedom, and resisting censorship.
It was an era when CRT monitors flickered with green light. The market only had centralized electronic gold like e-gold, which was always at risk of being shut down. The true geeks were chewing on dry papers: Wei Dai's B-money, Nick Szabo's Bit Gold, Adam Back's Hashcash. They were trying to solve a seemingly unsolvable problem: how to prevent double-spending without banks?
No exchanges, no ICOs, no get-rich-quick myths. Only lines of obscure code and a group of idealists firmly believing "code is law." They did not know what the future held, only confidently typing every character in the dark.
That was the Cambrian night of digital currency. Silent, yet fierce.The whale who went long on $148 million worth of crude oil at 0x0cc1 has started cutting losses after a floating loss of $15.08 million. In the past 10 minutes, he stopped loss and closed $44.04 million worth of CL long positions, realizing a loss of $4.9 million. Half a month ago, he started going long on oil prices, continuously adding positions up to $148 million, but this week crude oil plummeted 14%, which stunned him. He still holds $94.79 million worth of BRENTOIL long positions, with a floating loss of $8.35 million and a liquidation price of 82.4. My judgment: this is a typical "averaging down and holding" failure scene, and the remaining part is very likely not to hold either. Do you think he will also cut the remaining BRENTOIL positions?
This does not constitute investment advice
$CL $ZBRENTOILUkraine's Central Bank Opposes Crypto Bill: Should Foreign Tokens Like USDT Also Be Regulated?
On November 5, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) publicly opposed the current version of the cryptocurrency regulatory bill 10225-d, urging lawmakers to amend it before advancing legislation.
The central bank's main concerns are threefold:
First, foreign-issued tokens might enter the Ukrainian market without adequate regulation, potentially functioning as electronic money and affecting national monetary sovereignty.
Second, overseas token issuers might bypass regulatory requirements that domestic companies must comply with.
Third, the number of crypto trading platforms allowed would be determined by the securities regulator, which could lead to market monopolies and rent-seeking opportunities.
Interestingly, the central bank does not oppose the legalization of cryptocurrencies and supports establishing a regulatory framework referencing the EU's MiCA framework.
The core of the controversy is: the market can be open, but regulatory authority must not have loopholes.
This also indicates that the more stablecoins and crypto payments become widespread, the less willing central banks worldwide are to relinquish control over the monetary system. #美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压
Brothers, AI trading has entered the second half, and the market is starting to "do the math". It used to be "just touch AI and it rises," but now the divergence is extremely severe.
Why are cloud service providers strengthening? Because giants like Microsoft have proven that AI can not only make money but also control capital expenditures, with positive free cash flow. The market now prefers this "fast monetization, with reserves" light-asset model.
Why are data center stocks getting hammered? The heavy-asset model purely focused on infrastructure and computing power is being eaten away by high leverage and massive capital expenditures. For example, companies like CoreWeave face extremely high debt costs and leasing pressure; once the computing power leasing price war breaks out, profits go straight to zero. Capital is shifting from "heavy-asset infrastructure" to "light-asset software/cloud services." $BTC $SOL $SNDK On November 5th, the Democratic Party swept the midterm elections, and before the AI regulation hammer even fell, the US stock market crashed first.
The Nasdaq 100 plummeted 6.4%, Nvidia dropped 9%, and the chip index plunged 12%.
On the same day, Bitcoin was kicked down from around 80,000 to 76,000.
An asset that claims to be “decentralized, censorship-resistant, and not controlled by any government” was smashed along with the Democratic Party’s move to regulate OpenAI and Nvidia’s data centers.
Something’s off. Very off.
Bitcoin trades 24/7 with good liquidity, and leveraged products are everywhere. When AI stock long positions get margin called and funds need to deleverage, BTC becomes the easiest asset to liquidate among the entire “tech risk exposure.”
Wintermute’s data shows about $1.5 billion liquidated after Binance outflows, with 85% concentrated on longs. CoinGlass data is even more direct: over $2 billion in crypto long and short positions were liquidated on Thursday.
This isn’t because Bitcoin’s fundamentals worsened. It’s because Bitcoin just happens to be sitting at the same table as “tech trading,” and someone flipped the table.
What does the Democratic Party want? To pause super AI development, restrict data center construction, and put approval shackles on computing power expansion.
Who suffers the most? Centralized AI giants.
Nvidia, Micron, data center operators—their valuations are built on “unlimited expansion of computing capital expenditure.” Once regulation tightens, this assumption is shaken.
But what about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin doesn’t rely on data center approvals to survive. It doesn’t depend on any company’s capital expenditure plans. Its computing power is distributed worldwide and doesn’t need permission from any country’s regulators.
If “centralized AI” becomes scarce due to regulation, then logically the scarcity of a “decentralized, censorship-resistant computing power network” should rise, not fall.
Vitalik’s promoted “CROPS AI”—censorship-resistant, open source, private, secure—actually gains structural narrative support under this regulatory environment. Bittensor’s positioning has never been “stronger than OpenAI,” but rather “an alternative that no one can shut down.”
The market panicked and sold BTC and AI stocks together. But after the liquidation ends, they will return to completely different pricing logics.
BTC dropping to 76,000 isn’t because anyone seriously evaluated the “impact of AI regulation on Bitcoin fundamentals.”
It’s because one or more non-crypto hedge funds holding highly leveraged IBIT positions were liquidated, triggering a chain liquidation. It’s because long institutions quickly sold positions bought during the rebound, and “no buyers have yet stepped in.”
This is a liquidity event, not a fundamental event.
But prices created by liquidity events are precisely the most comfortable windows for contrarian positioning—provided you can distinguish between “forced selling” and “actively bearish.”
Wintermute gave two key levels:
$80,000 is the recovery threshold. If it can’t be reclaimed, short-term weakness remains.
$76,800 is the 50-week moving average and also the defense line. Breaking below here may mean the next wave of selling pressure is no longer liquidation-driven but a real trend reversal.
Currently, BTC is stabilizing near 76,000, barely above the 50-week moving average. This is not a position to blindly rush in.
The “oversell” caused by the liquidation wave needs time for the market to correct itself. And before correction, prices can go lower than you imagine.
When the market panics, it doesn’t distinguish between “AI companies” and “hedges against AI.”
It only distinguishes between “sellable” and “unsellable.”
Bitcoin was sold not because it’s in cahoots with Nvidia, but because it’s the chip on that table easiest to convert to cash.
But after liquidation ends and forced sellers exit, the asset will return to its original pricing logic.
Then the market will relearn one thing: Nvidia fears regulation, Bitcoin does not.
The current price is paying for a misclassification.
And mistakes have always been another name for opportunity—as long as you don’t get liquidated before the mistake is corrected.
$BTC $SNDK $ETH At 23:00 last night, BTC dropped from 78,279 to 75,511 in a single 1-hour candlestick, with a trading volume of $4.11 billion, consuming one-third of the daily volume. In 24 hours, $1.05 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, 203,418 people were forced out, and bulls accounted for 88%.
It looks like a crash. But this is not a crash; it’s a liquidation scene.
First, let’s clarify who is selling.
Last night’s selling pressure came in two forms. The first is forced selling pressure—hedge funds were liquidated, and leveraged long positions were forcibly closed. This selling pressure is price-insensitive; no matter the price, the system dictates the sale. The S&P fell 4.36%, the Nasdaq dropped 5.52%, Nvidia fell 9%, and Tesla dropped 10%. Wall Street traders said, “This smells like liquidation.” Multi-strategy funds are cutting positions, and pods are being forced to close positions—this is a chain reaction on the same link.
The second is active selling pressure—spot holders voluntarily surrendering. This has not happened yet.
The evidence is straightforward: IBIT holding real coins only dropped 5.49%, while leveraged MSTR fell 10.12%, and COIN dropped 9.37%. Leveraged stocks fell twice as hard as spot holdings. What got washed out was borrowed money, not their own coins.
ETFs saw a brief net inflow of $74.6 million on November 4, ending three consecutive days of $1.16 billion outflows, but the cumulative net outflow for November remains $440 million. Meanwhile, large holders with on-chain self-custody increased their holdings to 3.03 million BTC, the fastest accumulation rate since February this year.
ETFs are selling “paper demand,” while whales are buying “real chips.” Short-term traders are running, and long-term holders are accumulating. These two groups never sit at the same table.
Despite the crash, BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain at +0.01%, with longs still paying shorts. What does this mean? The longs haven’t been fully washed out. The positions that needed to explode have done so, but the surviving leveraged longs are still holding, still paying fees, and still not giving up.
More than half of the clearing is done, but not all. The true bottom signal historically is when funding rates turn negative—when longs completely lie down and no one is willing to pay to go long. That point hasn’t arrived yet.
So the conclusion is not to "bottom fish," but to "wait."
Forced selling pressure comes fast and goes fast. The $1.05 billion liquidation was released in a few concentrated hours, leverage ratios returned to relatively healthy levels, and the market structure is actually lighter than a week ago. But the premise is: don’t use leverage to catch the liquidation before clearing is complete. Using leverage on the left side to catch liquidation is equivalent to turning yourself into the next batch to be liquidated.
Observation zone below: 73,000–68,000. The first signal of emotional recovery above: BTC retakes above 80,000, and ETFs have three consecutive days of uninterrupted net inflows. The Fear & Greed Index dropped overnight from 50 to 28—panic is precisely when chip turnover is most honest.
$1.1 billion bought a lesson:
Leverage dies in liquidation; spot survives in panic.
Those washed out were still betting on direction yesterday. Those picking up chips today are watching the structure.
The market never rewards those who bet correctly on direction, only those who survive liquidation.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK All the bad news about $CORE has been released. But the distance between "all out" and "time to buy" is as vast as an entire ledger.
b14g was drained of 97.05 million tokens, a hard fork recovered 68.14 million tokens, accounting for 70.2%, but the recovered funds have not yet been distributed to any affected users, and nearly 29 million tokens remain under pursuit. Validators have dropped from 31 to fewer than 20, with the community's latest count seeing 13. The Satoshi Plus consensus shutdown red line is 15. Bithumb officially announced the delisting of CORE on November 30. Out of 34 exchanges, only 13 still maintain trading.
On-chain fees: $1.17. DEX volume: $148.89. Price: 0.012.
Indeed, bad news is piling up. But a pile of bad news does not automatically mean "all negative factors are out."
Three hard constraints take precedence over "whether to bottom-fish" by ten thousand times.
First, Bithumb's November 30 deadline is firm. The reason for delisting is "unresolved trading warning issues," not liquidity problems. If your position is on this platform, this matter takes priority over any judgment about whether SatPay will launch.
Second, the 68.14 million recovered tokens have not reached users' hands. The hard fork recovery is a clean technical operation, but "recovery" and "return" are two different things. The team is still verifying balances and finalizing the distribution plan, with no official claim channel yet. When the market prices trust costs, it looks not at how much was recovered but when it returns to users.
Third, validators are just one short of 15. The remaining nodes are highly tied to the project team, with no neutral nodes holding dissenting opinions. This is not a valuation parameter but the physical boundary for whether this chain can continue to produce stable blocks.
So "what exactly should be done"
Is not a binary choice between "cutting losses" and "holding on." At this point, a more honest sequence is:
First handle the hard constraints, then discuss direction. Bithumb's deadline, CoinEx's withdrawal closure date, the distribution timetable for recovered funds—these matters have calendars, not K-line charts.
Then confirm exit feasibility. A daily DEX volume of $148.89 means on-chain liquidity is close to zero. CEX volume still exists, but delisting continues. Before discussing "how much it can rebound," first calculate "if you must exit now, how much can you actually get out."
Finally, wait for signals. Up to today, there has been no verifiable ecological income buyback transfer on-chain. Among the three events—nodes stabilizing, buybacks landing, new liquidity channels appearing—before any happens, "waiting" consumes not time but the residual value of exit rights.
$CORE The Triple Game Behind BTC's Deep V
🔴 Short-term Sentiment: After the Democrats took control of both chambers, the market first traded on expectations of "increased regulation," triggering sell-offs due to stablecoin constraints and SEC enforcement risks. Panic selling emerged early in the session, causing prices to plunge rapidly.
🟡 Mid-term Policy: The separation of the executive and legislative branches forms a hard constraint. The White House veto power can block Democratic bills, and both chambers will not easily approve the White House's relatively lenient agenda. Legislation checks and balances lead to a policy tug-of-war.
🟢 Long-term Pricing: The difficulty in passing bills actually delays the implementation of rules in the short term, narrowing enforcement margins and maintaining the industry's status quo. After the negative impact dulls, capital returns to risk assets, with bullish option buying and short covering jointly amplifying the rebound.
💡 Strategically, it is unwise to simply equate "tighter regulation" with a one-sided short. The direction can be maintained, but position size and stop-losses should not be stubbornly held. Going forward, closely monitor ETF net inflows, the strength of the US dollar index, and whether BTC can hold key resistance levels to determine if the deep V is a rebound or a reversal.