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4700 stocks fell, with trading volume down by 460 billion. The gainers are banks, utilities, and agriculture.
This is not a correction; money is just moving to hide elsewhere. The AI story isn't broken; what's broken is that it's too expensive, takes too long, and consumes too much capital.
Two variables over the weekend: Trump's decision on Iran, and the lingering effects of tonight's non-farm payrolls.
When the market opens next Monday, I'll be watching one thing: whether computing power can stop falling. If it can't, this wave won't be over in a day.
Are you holding the one hiding, or the one being avoided? $PEOPLE
ConstitutionDAO showed how quickly a crowd can raise money for a shared goal, then left PEOPLE without a clear product. Community tokens like this depend on sentiment. Unless a defined purpose emerges, price action says more about attention cycles than any underlying business.$BTC continued to drift down in the afternoon, with OKX spot sliding from the early session rebound high to around 75,450, down 6.4% in 24h, with a low still at 75,200; $ETH is around 2,223, down 8.4% in 24h.
This afternoon, CoinGlass reported a total liquidation of about $850 million among the top 20 targets, with long positions accounting for nearly 90%; specifically, $BTC accounts for about $330 million, and $ETH about $211 million. The liquidation density below is also close: around 75,100 there are about $28.4 million in long positions, and around 74,810 about $41.9 million.
Tonight at 20:30 (Vietnam time) is the US Nonfarm Payrolls, with market expectations around 60,000. My view is to stay close to support and avoid betting on direction before the Nonfarm; if it really breaks 75,000, this layer of long position liquidations can easily be swept away.
$BTC $ETHWhy the 21:30 employment report is worth dropping everything else for
1. First, look at the current market
$BTC is reported at 75,462, down 6.54% in 24 hours, with a low of 75,208, only 254 points left. Eight hours ago, it was still hovering above 76,200.
The market is waiting for tonight's 21:30 US October nonfarm payroll report. It's not just a data point, but the first key indicator to judge whether this round of decline can be stopped.
2. What exactly is in the nonfarm report?
Many people think nonfarm is just the "number of new jobs added." It's not. A report contains at least four items, and the market's sensitivity to them varies completely:
- New nonfarm jobs +59,000 +29,000 ★★★☆
- Unemployment rate 4.4% — ★★★
- Average hourly earnings year-over-year — ★★★★★
- Revisions to the previous two months' data — ★★☆
The most sensitive is average hourly earnings.
Employment numbers are affected by weather, strikes, government shutdowns, causing noise and frequent revisions; hourly earnings directly determine service sector costs and are a leading indicator of CPI. The Federal Reserve watches inflation by this line.
So the real judgment criterion is not "how many jobs were added," but:
If hourly earnings year-over-year > 4.0%, no matter how many jobs were added, it's bad news.
3. Why has the weight of the nonfarm report changed this year?
In past years, the market was familiar with the logic of "bad news is good news": bad data → Fed rate cuts → risk assets rise.
In 2026, this logic has completely failed. $NG brothers, last night the US stock market crashed so badly that even hell couldn't recognize it. The Nasdaq lost 5 points in one day, 90% of all coins turned green like the Hulunbuir grassland, but NGU was still up 1.2%. Why? Because it's traditional energy, has nothing to do with AI tech stocks, and the more the Nasdaq crashes, the more funds hide in energy. Today's 1.2% gain is just enough to add a braised egg to your pork rice. Don't complain it's little; nowadays, finding any green on the whole market is a blessing. If you have an egg to eat, just quietly enjoy it. #中东能源风险推高油价 Tonight's non-farm payroll data!
If it greatly exceeds expectations, the unemployment rate does not rise, and wages increase again, the expectation of a rate hike will rise once more, which would be a double blow to the market!
However, because last night's decline was due to selling on expectations, as the director analyzed above, if the non-farm data performs well and the rate hike expectation decreases, the market could possibly rebound with a V-shaped recovery. After all, the recently released bill is just a proposal, representing the Democratic Party's tightening and uncertainty on AI policy, which strengthens the risk-off logic. Actually, no matter who comes to power, AI development is certain; it's just like bargaining when buying something—cutting the main artery outright at the start, but it can be gradually adjusted and negotiated later! There is room for easing.Don't get excited too quickly; I don't take large long positions as evidence of a bullish outlook. The direction might be guessed right, but the trade might not be executed correctly; what this reminder makes me more concerned about is how much room for error he has left himself.
Core Trader 14 opened a long BTC position this time with 40x leverage, with a nominal position of about $445,300. I'm cautious for two reasons: first, roughly calculating initial margin by dividing nominal position by leverage, the initial margin is about $11,100. If the price moves 1% against him, the unrealized loss would be about $4,453, which is about 40% of this initial margin; this doesn't include fees and doesn't represent the actual liquidation line. Second, monitoring doesn't provide total account equity, stop-loss, or hedging status; a large position doesn't equal high confidence. My guess is, if he doesn't reduce the position during a downturn, the most uncomfortable will be the high-leverage longs who lack backup margin and refuse to admit mistakes, not ordinary holders.
Of course, he might be right; a short-term upward move could quickly make this position advantageous. I'm not bearish just because I see a large position; I just don't want to take someone else's opening position as my own conclusion. If later I see him actively reduce leverage and the price pulls back then strengthens again, I will start to acknowledge the risk-reward setup of this trade. Next, I will focus on how the position is managed, not how intimidating the opening amount is. I will first view this message according to the progress of the system, not rushing to count it as buying pressure.
Hyperliquid Strategies has submitted an FCM application, aiming to serve Hyperliquid traders in the United States. Submission does not equal approval, and it certainly does not mean funds will enter HYPE today.
I just saw OKX spot around $77.20, down from about $83.80 in 24 hours, with a low of $76.27; perpetual positions are about $126.7 million, with a rate of -0.0017%, shorts slightly paying fees. The price is still near the intraday low, and positions do not show crowded longs.
This matter may have weight in the long term, but in the short term, let's first watch the approval and business implementation. Taking the application title directly as token demand, I think several steps in between are missing.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 This time, I am looking at the spot side and not rushing to treat the rebound as a trend reversal.
On November 5th, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of about $99.97 million, with ETHA alone seeing an outflow of $75.2 million. The numbers are not small, but this is just a single day of fund flow and cannot be directly equated to a collective institutional bearish view.
OKX spot is currently around $2230, dropping from 2426 to 2206 in 24 hours, still in a low range. Perpetual positions are about $1.518 billion, with the current funding rate around 0.0036%, longs are still paying, but it is far from the common 0.01% benchmark. The fund flow is weak, and the contracts have not squeezed out obvious premiums. For this kind of market, I’d rather wait for spot transactions to speak first.
Let's first record this ETF outflow and see if it can be absorbed later by the market.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 I run a small company and when reviewing reports, I usually first look at the fundamentals, then the cash flow. The USDD transparency report released in October 2026 shows that as of October 31, the circulation was about 1.5 billion tokens, reserve assets were $2.21 billion, with a collateralization ratio of 146.99%; Smart Allocator's cumulative earnings exceeded $33.59 million.
My judgment is that this disclosure adds to transparency but cannot be directly taken as proof of $USDD's safety. Anyone in business knows that having substantial assets on the books doesn't mean you can access them quickly when cash is urgently needed, and over-collateralization does not equal a cash risk reserve.
I will focus on two things: what the reserves consist of and whether they can be liquidated promptly when needed, as this determines the confidence in handling redemptions; and what generates the earnings and what risks are borne, as this clarifies the input-output relationship. Cumulative earnings are not the cash flow for the month and you cannot judge operational quality by a nice total number.
If there is a concentrated redemption and the reserves are difficult to liquidate promptly, then even with surplus on the books, turnover could be tight. This is my stress scenario speculation, not something that has already happened. For those who use stablecoins as a tool for cash flow, I think liquidity deserves more scrutiny than earnings figures. Business friends, would you prioritize verifying reserve liquidity or the source of earnings? What information would make you feel more assured?89.4% of liquidated positions are longs, this ratio is a bit glaring
The recent flash news statistics show that longs account for 89.4% of BTC liquidations. The market is indeed weak, with OKX spot around $75,928, a 24-hour low of $75,200, not far from the low.
But I don’t interpret this directly as a trend conclusion. Perpetual positions are about $26.7 billion, with a fee rate of 0.0026%, lower than the common 0.01% benchmark; leverage does not show a clear premium for longs, it currently looks more like longs are being liquidated first in the downtrend, and new directional positions have yet to show.
I will watch how volume and open interest behave near the lows. If it’s just repeatedly triggering stop losses but OI doesn’t drop further, it’s not the same as actively adding shorts; for now, I’m not rushing to label this downtrend.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 You often see hindsight posts talking about how if you had bought 1 million worth of Bitcoin, Nvidia, Tesla, etc. 10 years ago, it would be worth billions today. This kind of hindsight gives you the illusion that an asset grows linearly, making you regret not buying back then, buying too little, or not holding on. In hindsight, you feel like you're better than Buffett, easily making 100x profits, but in reality, you're dreaming. Holding onto an asset depends not only on knowledge but most importantly on not lacking money. It's like buying Pop Mart following the crowd—do you believe you bought it cheaper than them but ended up earning less? For retail investors, this is a paradox: they trade stocks because they lack money or their job isn't going well—isn't that nonsense? When an asset doubles, if you're short on money, can you avoid selling? Can you hold on once, let alone for 10 years? $BTC The Democratic Party has taken both chambers, verbally calling for anti-war, but don't get too excited yet. The new Congress won't take office until January 3 next year. In these two months, Trump might actually try to make moves quickly because once this opportunity is gone, it's gone for good. But looking at the bigger picture, the Democrats hold the "purse strings," so in the future, it will be much harder to get war funding for large-scale conflicts. So my judgment is: the probability of a full-scale US-Iran war is decreasing, but this two-month "window period" carries some risk of unexpected trouble.
What does this mean for our crypto circle? Simply put: if oil prices don't explode, Bitcoin can breathe. Previously, when US-Iran tensions rose, oil prices surged, inflation expectations increased, and the Federal Reserve dared not ease, which kept Bitcoin suppressed. Now that Congress wants to limit war, the "panic premium" on oil prices will gradually fade. As long as Trump doesn't make big news in these two months, the macro environment is an invisible positive for crypto—one less straw to break the camel's back.
But in terms of operations, don't get carried away. Geopolitics is slow to ease but can worsen instantly. In this two-month "gap period," if Trump throws a bombshell, oil prices will still soar, and Bitcoin will still fall. So the strategy is simple: don't chase highs; if you have extra, reduce at resistance levels; if you're out, wait for a pullback and stabilization before considering entry. Don't take "Congress anti-war" as a reason to go all in; the market is always on the path to slap you in the face.
#美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Whether it's the sell-off by Trump's media or the buy-in by Bao Er Ye, the two individuals have completely different positions, objectives, and capital attributes, so neither should be used as your trading basis.
1. First, distinguish what signals each side represents
✅ Trump Media (TMTG) selling 99.99% BTC: corporate funds voting with their feet
1. This is a publicly listed company with financial reports, debt, and cash flow pressures. It initially held a heavy BTC position by leveraging the narrative of "Trump's crypto-friendly stance and national reserves" to attract capital;
2. The market has continued to weaken, BTC unrealized losses have expanded, and Bitcoin has become a risk asset dragging down financial reports. This is a commercial institution's risk control behavior: the risk is too high, so they first recover cash and reduce exposure;
3. Key distinction: Trump Media ≠ Trump himself, and does not equal the US national Bitcoin reserve. Trump can verbally continue to support crypto and build Bitcoin reserves, but this listed company under his umbrella cannot withstand book losses and asset safety risks, so it chooses to exit.
4. Its signal: under current multiple risks (custody theft, quantum future risks, heavy selling pressure), professional corporate funds are unwilling to continue holding BTC heavily as a reserve asset.
✅ Bao Er Ye (Guo Hongcai)'s view: long-term narrative calls, advocating holding and bullishness, predicting Bitcoin will reach millions of dollars in the long term
1. Bao Er Ye is a veteran evangelist in the crypto circle, famous for the Bitcoin wealth myth, with a long-term narrative of holding Bitcoin, accumulating coins, and waiting for a super bull market;
2. His profit model largely comes from traffic and consensus hype, needing to maintain bullish faith; his views are more about long-term belief narratives rather than institutional risk control assessments;
3. He rarely quantifies current hacker chips, ETF redemptions, unlocking selling pressure, or custody security cracks; his logic is to skip short-term declines and bet on a very distant bull market.
2. Core contradiction: one focuses on current risks, the other bets on distant dreams
- Trump Media: lives in current cash flow, risk control, and financial reports, where risk outweighs reward, choosing to sell to avoid risk;
- Bao Er Ye: lives in long-term consensus narratives, ignoring short-term layered selling pressure, recommending buying and holding firmly.
The biggest pitfall here:
Many confuse two things: verbally bullish does not mean their own funds will be heavily held to support the position.
Narrators who call for long-term holding also cash out at times; companies that once rode crypto benefits also clear positions when risks worsen.
3. Why neither statement can be directly copied for trading
1. Trump Media's sell-off is just a company's portfolio adjustment, not meaning BTC will immediately go to zero; if risks fully dissipate and liquidity improves, it may buy back later;
2. Bao Er Ye's million-dollar vision is a long-term speculation without a realizable timeline, requiring passing through numerous bear markets, black swans, regulations, and security crises, with prolonged deep declines that most cannot endure losses through;
3. The current crypto landscape: short-term is selling pressure, confidence, and custody security bear market logic; long-term is an unknown of cryptography, regulation, and global monetary competition.
Believing the sell-off risks missing future extreme positive rebounds; believing the buy-in risks falling into the "who buys regrets" bottom-fishing trap.
4. The most rational conclusion
Neither blindly follow Trump Media to sell everything nor blindly follow Bao Er Ye to heavily buy in.
The views of big players can only be market sentiment references, not buy or sell instructions:
- If you focus on the short term: hacker chips, ETF redemptions, institutional sell-offs, and custody security risks are real suppressions, making bulls difficult;
- If you bet on the ultra-long term: you must accept prolonged bear markets, huge unrealized losses, theft, quantum risks, and regulatory risks, and be mentally prepared for significant principal shrinkage.
The real decision power is not in any big player's mouth but in whether you can bear the corresponding risks yourself.$BTC 11.6 Short strategy realized
765-770 range layout, lowest touched 75327
First target smoothly achieved, nearly a thousand points profit secured
In a downtrend market, every rebound is a high-quality short entry opportunity
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ Intel Falls Below $57: Don't Treat Government Cost as a Valuation Anchor
Intel's stock price falling below $57 has relieved those who had been holding back. The longer you observe Intel, the more you realize that sometimes "not rushing to add positions" is more important than "bravely bottom-fishing."
In August 2025, the U.S. government reached a shareholding agreement with Intel, acquiring nearly 10% equity at about $20.47 per share, involving approximately $8.9 billion. However, this was not the government directly buying on the secondary market, but mainly converting existing subsidies into equity. Therefore, $20.47 can be used as a reference but should not be simply equated with the cost basis of ordinary investors.
At $57, the stock price is about 2.8 times the agreement price; even if it falls to $40, it is still about 95% higher than $20.47. This neither means Intel is only worth $20 nor that it will definitely fall to $40. What really needs to be watched is whether the foundry business can improve, whether capital expenditures are controllable, and whether future profits can be realized.
Before these uncertainties are resolved, paying too high a price for growth expectations is not worthwhile. For Intel, it may be safer to wait until around $40 before reassessing whether to build positions gradually.
$BTC $ETH $INTC
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Last night, the US semiconductor stocks plunged nearly 10% in a single day, and BTC fell below 76000 intraday.
Many people didn't understand why the crypto spot market was hit so hard when the external market dropped.
The real liquidity drain came from cross-market futures-spot arbitrage.
When the Nasdaq's sharp drop triggered passive macro deleveraging, large funds couldn't sell stocks after US market hours. The fastest way to cash out was to simultaneously close short positions on crypto perpetuals and spot holdings. Funding rates on major exchanges were neutralized within two hours, and the arbitrage opportunity vanished instantly.
Once the arbitrageurs withdrew, market makers instinctively pulled most of their spot buy orders to reduce their Delta exposure to zero.
Order book depth shrank from tens of millions of dollars daily to just a few million. Normally, selling pressure of a few hundred BTC is negligible, but in last night's thin order book, it broke through three price levels.
So this was not an internal crypto market event like protocol liquidations or a bad debt spiral.
It was a liquidity shock caused by external passive deleveraging, and the selling pressure was usually one-off. After institutions finish adjusting their positions and spot buy orders replenish, I believe the price will quickly stabilize in the vacuum zone.#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 Moderna Q3 is a critical window to validate its respiratory vaccine commercialization transformation. The market consensus expects revenue of about $890 million, with the revenue focus gradually shifting from traditional COVID-19 vaccines to the new mNEXSPIKE COVID-19 vaccine, RSV vaccine mRESVIA, and the newly approved mRNA flu vaccine mFLUSIVA. This earnings report focuses on three key points: the scale-up of COVID-19 vaccinations in the US during the fall and winter, the market share of the RSV vaccine, and the initial distribution status of the new flu vaccine. The ongoing normalization and pressure on COVID-19 vaccine demand is the biggest drag variable; if flu and RSV vaccine sales fall short of expectations, short-term performance will continue to be under pressure. Management guidance, new vaccine gross margins, and overseas orders will determine the short-term stock price direction. Bitcoin is showing the strange phenomenon where short selling to make money and selling to cash out is easier; the core reason is that market supply and demand, confidence, and trends have completely reversed.
In a bull market, buying the dip and holding spot assets to profit is common, and short selling is easily stopped out by rapid price surges; now it’s the opposite—weak rebounds, smooth declines, continuous selling pressure, and exhausted buying power create an abnormal pattern where "selling to realize profits and short selling are easier to profit from."
1. Too many sellers cause every rebound to naturally have a "ceiling"
Multiple layers of sell orders lie in wait long-term, and every small rebound triggers concentrated profit-taking:
- Hackers holding BTC at zero cost wait for rebounds to sell in batches, with no cost floor;
- High-level trapped holders lose faith, no longer stubbornly holding to break even, reducing positions and exiting at any slight rebound;
- Institutions and ETFs continue redemptions, forming rigid passive sell orders; Trump's media nearly clearing out is a benchmark signal;
- Corporate treasuries break the "buy-only" narrative, choosing to sell for financial reports, debt repayment, and cash obligations.
The upward resistance is huge; most rebounds are brief pauses, making sustained rallies difficult and bulls struggle to hold profits; conversely, following the trend to short opens easier profit potential.
2. Former core support forces have vanished, no funds to absorb selling pressure
Previously, declines were stabilized by incremental ETF funds, Saylor’s coin hoarding, and large buyers bottom-fishing to absorb sell orders.
Now:
Incremental off-exchange funds are on the sidelines, on-exchange funds mainly exit for risk aversion, and market makers shrink liquidity and reduce order book depth.
Order book support is weak; prices can easily step down without massive sell orders.
A market without support means down is low resistance and up is high resistance—this is the fundamental condition favoring the bears.
3. Underlying narrative collapses; valuation logic shifts from "coin hoarding for appreciation" to "risk aversion and cashing out"
The two pillars supporting Bitcoin’s long-term bull case have deep cracks:
- "Digital gold, safe haven store of value": top exchanges’ custody is unsafe, large assets stolen are unrecoverable; the underlying elliptic curve faces long-term quantum computing risks;
- "US crypto-friendly, national reserve benefits": benchmark related companies lead in clearing out, policy benefit expectations are discounted.
Everyone’s mindset shifts from "long-term hoarding for big gains" to "cashing out for safety, cash is king."
Market consensus changes: holding BTC itself carries unknown risks; selling to stablecoins or cash reduces risk rather than missing out on gains.
4. Leverage amplifies declines, creating a positive feedback loop of cascading long liquidations
Crypto perpetual contracts have high leverage; when the trend is down, a cycle easily forms:
Price dips slightly → many longs trigger forced liquidations → liquidation orders push price lower → more long positions liquidate.
The downtrend is self-reinforced by leverage, amplifying losses; while on the upside, lack of capital push makes large-scale short liquidations hard to trigger.
Thus, the market shows: fast declines, weak rebounds, and short selling odds clearly better than going long.
5. Macro environment suppresses risk assets; capital preference shifts to cash and traditional gold
A strong dollar and delayed rate cut expectations cause high-risk speculative assets to be collectively abandoned by capital.
Traditional safe havens like gold and US Treasuries gain appeal, capital withdraws from crypto.
Without incremental liquidity support at the macro level, Bitcoin is no longer a priority allocation; selling to cash out is the mainstream choice.To be honest, I used to easily mishear "transformation" as "turnaround," thinking that as long as the direction was right, it didn't matter if the realization was delayed. Later, I realized that holding contracts and waiting for stories, time itself is pressure.
IREN's mining income dropped by 58%, AI sales reached $200 million, and the plan is to basically complete the mining business transformation by December; the AI business annualized revenue target of $4 billion has been postponed to early 2027.
This reminds me of the market where everyone rushes to price new stories. I see it more as an alarm for the realization cycle rather than a pure AI benefit: $200 million in sales and a $4 billion annualized revenue target are not the same metric and cannot be directly treated as a progress bar; the target delay also means waiting longer. Ordinary people are most likely to mistake a company's transformation direction for a short-term entry opportunity.
I now follow two rules: first, verify the metrics when seeing big numbers; second, don't rely on leverage to shorten the wait. Next, I focus on realization and don't rush the story.Just a quick update
After seeing Binance hacked last Saturday, the market didn't continue to break down, so I closed all short positions. The plan was to close positions first to sort things out and pave the way for the upcoming rebound across various markets. I had been bearish all along, but now to take the opposite side, I need a different mindset.
Starting with crypto, I subjectively think it's currently in a position that's neither up nor down.
- On one hand, I don't dare to stay bearish anymore. I've been making money shorting for the past year and don't believe I can keep profiting with a single strategy. Although shorts have still been profitable in recent weeks, the holding experience has been terrible, feeling like walking a tightrope every day.
- On the other hand, I’m not bullish either. US interest rates are high, and no new funds are coming in. Many are expecting a breakthrough and pullback in 2023, but it seems the current capital preference is different. Just look at Robinhood's last quarter earnings report to see how cold crypto is, and there’s no sign of improvement for now.
So, I’m still watching crypto. Of course, if a super strong bullish candle appears, I’ll change my view anytime.
Regarding US stocks, I haven’t taken any action either. Semiconductors haven’t found a bottom yet. I’m waiting for new volume-driven lows in QQQ and memory stocks; if none appear, I’d rather skip this rebound. For bottom-fishing AI, there are two approaches: one is to find those with big drops, the other is to find those with good recent earnings. I haven’t decided yet.
For A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, I mentioned on X last night that I bought CQQQ and $KSTR. Looking back today, I almost bought at the lowest point and have made some gains.
$KSTR $QQQ 💻 I treat this message as a code review: The input is that the Ripple CEO said candidates supporting crypto have won in both parties, and 67 million U.S. crypto users will not leave; the Chief Legal Officer credits years of political investment by organizations like Fairshake.
My judgment: The demand for stable regulations is reasonable, but the election wins seem more like the demand being accepted rather than officially launched. Bipartisan support helps reduce reliance on a single camp; the large user base is also an unavoidable practical foundation in policy discussions.
A potential bug is treating candidate support directly as a regulatory enforcement result. If it were me, I would change the acceptance criteria to whether specific rules are clear and whether the compliance path is feasible. If these can be fulfilled, I speculate that ordinary users and U.S.-based companies will truly benefit, not just the emotional hype.
Everyone, please help me review: From candidate election to rule implementation, where do you think the biggest bottleneck is? What did I miss in this judgment?$AKE Web3 gaming platform, AI automatically generates game content, claims 2 million users, raised $5 million in seed funding. Today it surged 84%, with a trading volume of 328 million. Brothers, a seed round company has a daily trading volume 600 times its funding amount. What does this mean? It means that out of 2 million users, 1.99 million are bots, and the remaining 10,000 real users all bought in at the top. The pump logic of this coin is: I pump it up first, then you help me find users.Today's opening of the Korean stock market was indeed brutal. The KOSPI dropped more than 8% at one point in the early session, directly triggering a circuit breaker and halting the entire market for 20 minutes. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell into double digits during the session. Although the index later recovered somewhat, the panic sentiment was already evident.
This year, the rise in Korean stocks has relied on AI and the semiconductor sector. The problem is that Samsung and Hynix have too much weight in the index. Once the memory sector is sold off en masse, the KOSPI basically has no resistance. Coupled with foreign capital withdrawal, the originally crowded AI trades turned into a stampede.
This also shows one thing: no matter how strong the industry fundamentals are, they cannot withstand liquidity shocks under highly concentrated holdings.
For now, consider today's rebound as a technical recovery after panic. Going forward, focus on two signals: whether foreign selling can subside, and whether Hynix can be the first to stop falling and stabilize. $SKHYNIX $SNDK $BTC #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Let's clear up the overnight drop
The article at midnight wrote about the drop, the one in the morning explained the reasons, now let's clear the accounts: how much was liquidated overnight, how much fled, and who was selling.
First, look at liquidations: about $1 to $1.2 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, over 90% were long positions, with $BTC alone accounting for about $280 million. Both longs and shorts were shaken out; first shorts liquidated about $380 million, then after a reversal longs liquidated about $530 million.
Next, look at prices: $BTC is now around $75,400, with a 24-hour low of $75,200, basically never bounced back, dropping steadily from above $80,700, a decline of about 6.5%. $ETH is now around $2,220, lowest at $2,206; $SOL about $89, lowest $88.3; $XRP about $1.19.
Institutions didn't hold up either: on November 5, $BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $430 million, with Fidelity alone withdrawing about $200 million, BlackRock about $105 million. The day before had just seen net inflows of about $75 million, ending a three-day outflow streak, but the next day they turned again.
The root cause of this wave is still the US stock market: the Nasdaq 100 recorded its largest single-day drop since the 2020 pandemic, the S&P 500 lost about $3 trillion in one day. The crypto market just followed suit and took the hit.Tonight's US ADP employment report will be released at 21:15, with the market expecting an increase of 70,000 in private sector employment. For crypto traders, more important than the data itself is how it will affect the December rate cut expectations, which is the main trading risk facing $BTC and $ETH. Currently, neither long nor short positions in the market are overly crowded. If the data exceeds expectations, the US dollar and Treasury yields will rise, cooling rate cut expectations, which could squeeze the highly leveraged long positions in Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH); if the data falls short of expectations, rate cut expectations will strengthen, risk appetite will rise, supporting the crypto market, but selling pressure above will limit upside potential. If the final data is close to expectations, the macro environment will basically remain unchanged, and Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to fluctuate within the recent range, making this data just ordinary noise as buyers and sellers continue to contend. Additionally, ADP data is released earlier than official employment data, so subsequent data may overturn this signal. Rather than focusing on the first candlestick, more attention should be paid to the liquidity performance of the market afterward. On a deeper level, the current interest rate expectations no longer drive crypto assets the same way as before. Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by its own capital flows and structural demand, while Ethereum ($ETH) is more sensitive to overall risk appetite. If the volatility caused by the data quickly subsides, it indicates that the impact of macro interest rates is weakening; if the market continues to fluctuate, it means interest rate sensitivity is once again dominating the market. In any case, AI siphoning off funds, crypto circle left out in the cold? (｡•́︿•̀ω•́)و
Don't just see tighter AI regulations as bad news; it's more like a death sentence: 76% of voters reject building data centers, yet the giants are rushing to seize policy windows, pushing capital expenditures for 2027 ahead of schedule. Computing power hardware keeps booming, but the crypto circle is drained of its lifeblood (｡•́︿•̀｡).
$BTC is slightly up, playing dead; tonight's non-farm payrolls loom large, with heavy resistance above. Hold long-term spot firmly, avoid chasing highs short-term; if shorting, set tight stop losses—don't turn a short position into a death grip, that's just handing money to the market makers (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
$ETH is even more awkward; AI infrastructure doesn't align with the Ethereum ecosystem, lacking narrative and support. When the market softens, it falls first. Sideways trading isn't a reason to catch a flying knife; the bottom may not be solid (￣▽￣)~*.
$XAUT gold remains the hard logic for safe haven: regulatory divergence, Middle East geopolitics, central bank buying support—regardless of non-farm results, its resilience likely outperforms crypto.
This round isn't an ordinary correction; AI's early move is pulling funds to build infrastructure, with the non-farm night just amplifying risk. Don't get itchy hands or overweight positions; wait for liquidity to rebound and the shakeout to finish before stepping back in (｡•̀ᴗ-)✧
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ I'm also reluctant to admit it, but in the short term, I am indeed bearish on the US stock market. When $SNDK bounces to the 1010–1040 range, I will build short positions in batches, initially targeting 990, and if it really falls, 850 wouldn't be surprising. Why am I confident? Almost no one is buying below, and each high is lower than the last. Saying it has support is just self-deception. The selling pressure above is heavy; I don't see the strength to pull it back in one go right now. Big money is hiding, not because they haven't sensed the situation. If the Democrats take both houses in the midterm elections, the AI sector will likely be scrutinized later, and no one wants to move too fast before the rules are set. Many in the community are shouting to buy the dip, but after watching for a while, I don't see the logic. I usually lean bullish, but this time I'm not pretending. Brent crude has already fallen below 95, and the US-Iran situation is also disrupted by the election. I'll wait for it to bounce back on its own before making a move; that's much more reliable than guessing the bottom now. $SNDK isn't SanDisk giving out benefits?
Woke up overnight and the surprises keep piling up
Makes me want to expand my insider position, yesterday I said it would drop below 900, didn't expect it to go even lower than anticipated. Brothers who closed positions yesterday, I said it would keep falling, hold steady, by now you probably have your pockets full of profits.14:50, the buy wall at 75,000 has already accumulated to 【$23.78 million】, and this is just on Binance.
I originally thought there would be many more buy orders below, but after checking several price levels, none exceeded $10 million. So the 【74,800】 I mentioned last night is still the position where I plan to buy spot.
This time my main position is Bitcoin; the spot and low-leverage entry arrangements revolve around this level. But 【the upward structure hasn't appeared yet】; low leverage and high leverage are two different things, so don't directly use the spot order position to place high-leverage contracts. Going long against the trend without an upward signal is just catching a falling knife.
Previously, when shorting near 85k, I always said:
【Break below the previous low, fail to rebound above the previous high, break down again, then short at market price.】
The same logic applies to going long this time; below I will talk about high-leverage longs.
First, a rebound breaks through the previous high. This previous high can initially refer to the high point of the first rebound bullish candle; if the bottom has formed a consolidation range, then look at the high point of that range.
Then it falls back again without making a new low. The next time it breaks through the previous high upward, that’s when I would consider entering.
【Breakthrough, fall back without breaking the low, then break through again.】
But how to judge if the breakout is valid? It’s not just a spike up.
First, see if the 1-hour candle can close above the key level, then see if the strength can continue to the 4-hour, or even daily and weekly charts. The higher the timeframe, the more confident I am.
If after the breakout it falls back down, then you have to reassess. For me, it’s safer to watch the 【4-hour close】—whether it closes bullish or bearish, at what price, and whether it holds the breakout level.
In the end, it still depends on where the price stands.#ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势 Moderna was still trading in the tens at the beginning of the year, but when the phase 3 data for the melanoma vaccine came out in August, it forced a short squeeze, rising more than sevenfold within the year. Yesterday, it even surged intraday to a historic high of 261 — but the day before the earnings report, it dropped 6.5%, with profit-taking faster than anyone else.
For tonight's pre-market Q3 earnings report, I think the real focus isn't whether EPS beats expectations. It has beaten 7 out of the past 8 quarters, and 94% of the community has already bet Yes, so this kind of "beat expectations" has long been priced in. What I want to see are two numbers: first, as Q3 is the peak vaccination season, whether the COVID vaccine is still selling well — this revenue has been shrinking every year, so whether the full-year guidance can hold; second, how long the cash on hand will last. As for the stock price, it has already surged 75% above the average analyst target price, so any slight disappointment in the earnings will cause significant volatility.
I personally took a small position on Outcomes with a Yes, just for the sense of participation. Chasing with real money at this level is out of the question; at this point, the earnings report feels more like opening a blind box. #Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？
Oklo is a cutting-edge small advanced nuclear reactor company, classified as a thematic growth stock. The focus of its financial report is not on current profits but on project progress and funding status.
Positive aspects: The financial report shows the company has received multiple project grants from the U.S. Department of Energy. The Aurora microreactor project is progressing steadily, nuclear waste recycling and medical isotope businesses are accelerating implementation, and it is one of the few companies to have obtained approval channels from the U.S. nuclear regulatory agency. Revenue has started from zero to achieve minor income, cash reserves are sufficient, and there is no short-term risk of funding disruption. Against the backdrop of surging AI computing power electricity consumption, the small nuclear power concept aligns with the market's long-term vision for new energy and belongs to a high-growth thematic sector.
Negative aspects are the core suppressors of the stock price. The company is still continuously incurring large losses at this stage, with quarterly cash burn increasing. Current revenue scale is very small, and there is a long way to go before commercial power generation profitability. Nuclear power project approval cycles are lengthy, and regulatory uncertainty exists. If approvals are delayed, the commercialization timeline will be pushed back further. The company will likely need to raise funds through additional share issuance, posing dilution pressure.
This stock’s valuation relies entirely on long-term stories, with no stable profits and extreme volatility. Even if project progress exceeds expectations in the financial report, it only stimulates sentiment; fundamentals are unlikely to be realized immediately. If trading contracts, the downside during negative realizations will be much greater than traditional blue-chip stocks, making it unsuitable for heavy bottom-fishing speculation.
⚠️Risk warning: U.S. stock tokenized contracts are highly volatile, trading is not allowed domestically, and this is for market analysis reference only. Do not imitate high-leverage trading."Storage Sector Plummets: It's Not the Price Falling, It's the Cycle! Just Over Nine Hundred Is Only Midway Up the Mountain"
$SNDK Weekly chart has completely broken down, dragging the storage sector down with it. Looking at this seemingly bottomless trend, don't rush to call it cheap.
First, a soul-searching question: Is this drop really in price, or in expectations?
The data makes it clear: the stock price crashed from over two thousand directly down to just over nine hundred, a 50% drop. This is not a sudden one-day negative event, but a complete breakdown of the "price increase cycle" narrative.
Looking at the supply chain, Micron and Hynix are all tied to the same cycle rope; no one can escape. Many rely on earnings reports, thinking good results mean a bottom. Wake up, good earnings are just rearview mirrors (last year's books). At the turning point of the cycle, institutional exits happen much faster than you imagine.
Going further, the path of destocking is far longer and more painful than the path of price increases. Once demand weakens, absorbing capacity will be an extremely grueling process.
Trading iron rule:
Any current rebound should be treated as a bull trap. Just over nine hundred is not the bottom, only midway up the mountain. Never use "it has dropped a lot" as a buying reason. Control your hands, save your bullets, and never catch this falling knife!
#美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压
$SNDK
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Cash reserves: whether they have continued to rise, the intensity of new buybacks, and the performance of insurance float. The more cash, the more it indicates that the old partners still find few suitable targets and are patiently waiting for low-price opportunities. CryptoKaleo: If you are bullish on Bitcoin, skip $MSTR and buy $BTC directly.
Trader CryptoKaleo believes that Strategy has shifted from being a Bitcoin company to a dividend company. His main points are as follows:
1. Since June, the company's own BTC yield metric has been declining, despite increases in both its Bitcoin reserves and BTC price.
2. The company's approximately $4.9 billion cash reserve was mainly raised by selling billions of dollars worth of MSTR stock, which dilutes shareholder equity.
3. The company also repurchased about $2 billion of STRC preferred shares at a discount, which he considers a wise move. However, as the STRC stock price returns to par, he expects the company to issue more preferred shares to buy Bitcoin, thereby increasing dividend payment obligations.
4. If MSTR is removed from the MSCI index, it could face billions of dollars in sell-off pressure.
He believes there won't be a situation forcing a full-scale Bitcoin sell-off in the near term, but he states that management has shown they care more about protecting dividends than increasing the Bitcoin value per common share.I always thought that when a stablecoin report said "circulation shrank," it meant people were fleeing. The USDD data for October proved me wrong.
Circulation dropped from 1.81 billion to 1.5 billion, reserves still at 2.21 billion, collateralization ratio 146.99%. So where's the money? In the $USDD Earn pool on BNB Chain, the month-end TVL rose 62.9% month-over-month.
Simply put, people don’t want their coins just sitting idle; they’re all put into interest-bearing contracts. It’s like moving money from a checking account to an investment—balance looks smaller, but the people haven’t left.
Next time you see the words "shrinkage," don’t panic right away.Just finished my current work, I only glanced at the overall market data and found that borrowing BTC for a year costs only 0.50%, while borrowing ZEC costs 14.27%, nearly 29 times the difference. Those who want to short ZEC haven't even started because the interest rate blocks them first. Who dares to short ZEC at this rate?
I’m not watching the K-line; I’m watching the borrowing rates: ETH is at 2.75%, SOL at 5.49%, gradually climbing step by step, and then ZEC doubles straight up; it even hit 15.20% this morning before dropping back to 14.27% in the afternoon.
Interest rates don’t lie. Cheap borrowing means no one is in a hurry to borrow; when it’s this expensive, people are lining up to borrow the coins, mostly to short or hedge. If you want to crash the market, you have to pay the toll first, and this fee burns daily 🔥
There’s another layer: with so many people crowded into borrowing, the shorts are actually suffering. If they can’t push the price down, the interest still deducts daily. If the price really goes up, the first to rush to repay are them, and the crowding actually becomes fuel to push the price up.
BTC is the quietest here: borrowing rates are the lowest, perpetual contracts have a slight discount, no one is rushing for spot, and no one is willing to pay extra for contracts. All the heat is piled on the smaller coins, not the big brother.
Honestly, my long positions are still stuck. I felt itchy several times this afternoon wanting to add more but pulled back. The queue of borrowers hasn’t dispersed, and there are still people inside holding back, ready to act. Why should I rush? I’ll endure the itch and not rush before the results are out.
I’ll decide again after tonight’s non-farm payroll release: if I really move, I’ll only touch the cheapest borrowing BTC; I won’t short ZEC with a 14.27% toll—whoever wants to pay it, go ahead. 🎯#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
From last night to today, the crypto market has been really brutal, with $BTC dropping five to six points, $ETH even weaker, down eight points. By this morning, Bitcoin plunged directly to 75,200, Ethereum dropped to 2,205, and over 220,000 liquidations occurred across the entire market!
Let's start with the most direct trigger: the Democrats secured key seats, changing the political landscape, and the market immediately began to worry about regulation. The most tense area in the market is AI—data center construction, computing power expansion, and large tech companies could all face stricter scrutiny. AI was the hottest driver in the recent US stock bull market, and once that expectation was questioned, the sell-off began.
So you can see a very clear transmission: the Nasdaq dropped nearly 6% overnight, setting a record for single-day point decline; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 12%; the fear index VIX broke through 25, rising more than 45% in a single day. The choice of capital is very direct—not switching stocks, but withdrawing from risk assets and fleeing to short-term US Treasuries for safety. The size of US money market funds hit a historic record of 8.016 trillion USD. The money hasn't disappeared; it just doesn't want to take risks.
This sentiment crossed the Pacific in this morning's trading. The South Korean stock market dropped over 8%, triggering a circuit breaker; KOSPI fell below 5,000 points; Samsung Electronics dropped 9.98%, SK Hynix fell 11.7%; the Nikkei is also approaching a technical bear market. The crypto market falling to 75,200 is not surprising at all.The circulation of a stablecoin dropped from 1.81 billion to 1.5 billion over 19 days, while reserves stood at 2.21 billion USD. This is not a bank run; the money has just moved to a different place.
On October 12, $USDD circulation surpassed 1.81 billion, with TVL exceeding 2.51 billion. By the end of the month, circulation returned to about 1.5 billion tokens, with a collateralization ratio of 146.99%, exceeding by nearly 47 percentage points.
What is overlooked is another curve. In the same month, USDD Earn's month-end TVL on BNB Chain rose 62.9% month-over-month. Circulation is shrinking, the interest-earning pool is surging, holders haven't fled; they just moved their idle $USDD into interest-bearing contracts.
The mechanism aligns. Smart Allocator's investment returns in October rose 8.5% month-over-month, average daily capital deployment increased 15%, totaling 33.59 million USD. It deploys funds and then returns them to Earn; the TVL increase is a result, not a coincidence. Partners include Binance Wallet, Gate DEX, Morpho, Pendle.
Conclusion: This is a shift of the stablecoin from holding to usage. Reading the circulation decline as contraction is a misinterpretation; focus should be on collateralization ratio and deployment efficiency. The $BNB ecosystem is an indirect beneficiary.
One question remains: As reserves are increasingly deployed into DeFi, is the 146.99% a safety buffer or an inflated book figure?To pour some cold water first, I don't take negative funding rates directly as a bottom-fishing signal. Don't get excited too quickly; shorts paying fees does not mean the price should rebound. I'm more worried that the market might misinterpret the interest-collecting opportunity as evidence of a bottom.
According to Hyperliquid perpetual contract public data, the current highest absolute funding rate is for $WLD: -0.0065%/hour, annualized about -57%, with a 24-hour drop of 8.15%. I have two reasons: a negative funding rate means shorts pay longs, but it doesn't mean spot buying has returned; the annualized rate is calculated based on the current funding rate, which can change, so it can't be treated as locked-in income, and price declines may also consume the fees received.
Of course, the bulls could also be right. If the price stops making new lows but the funding rate remains significantly negative, I will reassess the rebound risk caused by crowded shorts. This is my speculation, not a confirmed reversal. I will first watch if the price can stabilize and won't use negative funding rates to boost my confidence.$SOL can't even hold $90 anymore! It was pushing up to 97 yesterday, but today it dropped as low as 88.24, down more than 20% in a month. This time it's really tough.
To conclude, the short-term outlook remains bearish; don't rush to bottom-fish just because it has dropped a lot.
This round of decline isn't just SOL's own problem. The US tech stock sector is being sold off, BTC has fallen back near $75,000, and the entire crypto market is under pressure.
But SOL has an even more troublesome issue.
The latest quote is $89.7, down 6.8% in 24 hours, with contract turnover around $2.375 billion.
The 4-hour open interest dropped from about 9.21 million tokens to 9.14 million, once falling to 8.83 million. This indicates leveraged positions exited during the decline and are now starting to accumulate again.
So what’s the next move?
$90 has already been lost; the rebound target is first $93. If it can't recover this level, treat it as weak, with support around $84–85.
If it can firmly reclaim $98, the short-term bearish view will be canceled.
SOL’s problem isn’t a lack of rebound ability, but that each recent rebound has failed to stop the lower lows trend.
A big drop doesn’t mean it’s cheap; at least for now, there’s no clear bottoming structure. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Sweeping up and down twice, it's not the same group of people selling
$BTC was first pushed up yesterday to clear out the short-sellers.
Today it was smashed down from a high position to clear out the long-sellers.
What is this price level: around 75500, which is the position just after being smashed.
Chasing shorts downward means catching the second wave.
Where does this money come from: two waves of opposite-direction liquidations.
First rising to hit the shorts, then falling to hit the longs, money comes from the side being liquidated.
The two waves are not done by the same group; it's wherever the price goes, that side's stop-losses get triggered.
The system sells according to rules, without regard to who is right or wrong.
Taking it one step further, at this position where both up and down sweeps are done, the cost for short-term shorting has already increased.
Stop-losses placed below 75000 have already been swept once.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC A $1.17 billion liquidation wave swept crypto after a sharp US equity selloff, with more than 220,000 traders forced out and roughly 90% of them on the long side. $BTC briefly slid toward $75,000 before recovering to $76,122.6, up 0.11% and still unable to reclaim the $80,000 level that lasted barely a day. The damage was lopsided: leveraged buyers absorbed the blow while larger holders treated the dip as an entry. That split is the real story. While retail positions were being flushed, a whale The market hasn't stopped bleeding yet; there's still a tough battle tonight
$BTC
The US tech sector took a heavy hit, with the Nasdaq closing down 5.52%, and the crypto market passively weakening following the external market sentiment. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 76,000, with a 24-hour retracement of about 5.5%, dipping as low as 75,200 during the session; ETH is relatively weaker, falling to around 2,230, with a daily drop exceeding 7%.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？
This round of decline is mainly driven by the contraction of risk appetite in external markets, not by endogenous negative catalysts within the crypto space. The market worries about stricter AI regulations after the election, with tech stocks leading the sell-off. Long leverage positions in high-volatility assets have become the main selling pressure: over the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was about 1.25 billion, mostly long positions. The fear and greed index has fallen to 28, entering the panic zone.
Two key time points to watch next:
First, at 16:00 today, Deribit has options worth about 2.86 billion expiring, with BTC's biggest pain point at 79,000, which is some distance from the current price. The expiration window will likely intensify back-and-forth oscillations and two-way order sweeps.
Second, at 21:30 tonight, the US October nonfarm payroll data will be released. The market expects 65,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. If the data beats expectations, rate cut expectations will be further delayed, and pressure on risk assets will remain; if the data is significantly weaker, it doesn't mean the market will immediately reverse. The market will switch to a recession pricing logic, which also contains uncertainties.
The trading approach remains cautious: stay on the sidelines before the data release, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing or catching falling knives. If planning to position, prioritize waiting until this round of volatility fully releases tonight, then reassess opportunities. SK Hynix intraday fell more than 9% today, with a pullback of over 60% from the July high. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $BTC The problem with the South Korean economy is that it is too singular. Semiconductor exports account for more than 40% of total exports, almost relying on one leg. Now, with the Democratic Party tightening AI regulations and increasing scrutiny on data center energy consumption, it is equivalent to stepping on the brakes for computing power infrastructure. Seeing this situation, which foreign capital would dare to continue betting on Hynix? They run first out of respect. The deeper problem is structural. Traditional industries like automotive and petrochemicals have long been weak, the bankruptcy rate of small and medium enterprises is rising, and both household and corporate leverage are not low. When semiconductors sneeze, the entire South Korean economy catches a cold. If the Korean stock market continues to struggle, the government will most likely intervene to rescue the market again. But with limited fiscal space, it will probably still rely on monetary easing and liquidity support to stabilize, which will further increase pressure on the depreciation of the Korean won. From a trading perspective, if this logic continues to ferment, shorting the Korean won is indeed a direction worth tracking. However, market sentiment is still highly volatile now, so first observe whether the Korean stock market can stabilize before deciding whether to take action. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 People are adding more short positions again 🧐
From 13:27 to 14:38 today, Abraxas Capital added 66 $BTC short positions in one go, worth 5 million USD.
The current total position is 153 million, with an unrealized profit of 4.53 million.
What I’m paying attention to is not how much they’ve earned, but that they keep adding even after already making 4.53 million.
Those who think the price has dropped enough, and those who are betting real money on the drop endlessly, one of them will have to admit they’re wrong.Trump lost the election, yet the US stock market and $BTC actually rose.
The Democrats winning does not necessarily mean bad news for tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
What the market cares about now is:
Can the Iran war ease?
Can oil prices continue to fall?
Does the Federal Reserve have room to cut interest rates?
Politics is superficial; liquidity is the core.
As long as funds become loose again, risk assets have a chance.BTC current price is $75,747. The thickest order book currently is Coinbase spot: buy orders at $24,939,400, sell orders at $9,236,500, with buy orders exceeding sell orders by $15,702,900. Binance spot buy orders also exceed sell orders but are smaller in scale than Coinbase spot. If large buy or sell orders suddenly appear, exchanges with thinner order books will be affected first, causing more noticeable price fluctuations. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Previously, some investors had discussed Anthropic's valuation dropping from about $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion. Now even that figure is considered expensive by some. On November 5, potential investors questioned whether the company could start its roadshow as originally planned next week and meet the November IPO timeline. Pricing and the schedule have become part of the negotiations.
This time when reviewing the prospectus, what I care most about is voting rights. According to the disclosed design, each Class F share held by the founders' holding entity will have 50.1% of the voting power on matters submitted to general shareholders for voting, with some board seats arranged separately. For public market investors, this means they can share in the company's growth, but when it comes to disagreements over computing power investment, financing, or strategy, their influence is limited.
Some are willing to pay for the founders' long-term judgment, which is reasonable. But if they also have to accept a high valuation and very little say, I can understand why subscribers want to negotiate harder on price. Especially with tech stocks plunging and buyers having a bunch of already-declined listed companies to choose from. What matters now is whether the roadshow can start as planned and at what price investors are willing to accept this rights arrangement.
#Anthropic潜在IPO投资者建议估值降至1.5万亿美元 Macro Background: This is not a "rate cut trade," but "stagflation + renewed rate hikes". The market was used to a certain script: poor data → rising rate cut expectations → risk assets rallying. This script has failed this year. CPI year-on-year 4.0% (September, previous 3.7%) rising for two consecutive periods, at the 77th percentile in nearly 10 years. CPI month-on-month +0.6%, annualized over 7%. Energy sub-index year-on-year +20.4%. Iran war, imported inflation. Core CPI year-on-year 2.8%, core is acceptable, the problem lies in energy. PPI year-on-year 6.3%, upstream pressure is huge and will transmit downstream. PCE year-on-year 3.6%, far from the 2% target. Federal funds rate 3.75%–4.00% has restarted the rate hike path. 10-year US Treasury yield 4.90%, the long end does not support rate cuts. September nonfarm payrolls +29,000, employment clearly weakening. Inflation at 4% and rising, employment only +29,000, yet the Federal Reserve is raising rates. This is textbook "stagflation." Stagflation is the least friendly period for risk assets: high inflation, central banks dare not ease, but instead must raise rates; weak employment, corporate profits decline. Neither side is favorable, so there is no room for "policy market rescue." This explains the Nasdaq's plunge of 5.52% on November 5 (the largest single-day drop in 19 months), and BTC dropping from 81,196 to 75,208—the real reason is the change in macro pricing logic, not an issue within the crypto circle itself. Adding to this week's black swan: Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion (the largest financial theft in history, North Korean hackers, the Federal Reserve and OCC have already interviewed the US...