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Trading news-driven markets really feels like battling through levels and monsters 😂
Previously fell into a big trap: didn’t understand conditional orders, stop loss triggered and suddenly an extra position appeared out of nowhere, totally confusing me.
Gradually figured out the trick: the "reduce only" option is a lifesaving little switch.
Reminder to everyone: during big events like Nonfarm Payrolls, sudden spikes happen, and stop losses get triggered on both sides as a regular occurrence.
When placing protective orders, prioritize using the built-in take profit and stop loss of your positions, which have their own closing logic and won’t secretly open reverse positions for surprise attacks.
Markets change in the blink of an eye, and slippage can appear anytime.
Watching the market for fun is fine, but never get carried away with your positions; preserving your principal is the biggest win.
Markets carry risks, trade rationally. Don't think the congressional transition is a peaceful handover; in essence, it's a year-long power vacuum period, and the massacre is just beginning. The old Congress is still in power, and the new Congress won't take over until 2027. During this time, it's a lawless period for policies. Trump could launch a sudden strike in the Middle East at any time, while the Democrats scrutinize the accounts with a magnifying glass. This expectation of division turns the market into a meat grinder.
Look at $BTC, the big coin; the slight dip now is just playing dead. With a macro vacuum, all ETFs are on hold, and no long-term fresh capital is entering. The overhead trapped positions are very heavy. If the non-farm payrolls drop tonight, it will definitely spike crazily above seventy thousand. Holding long-term is fine, but chasing highs in the short term is pure suicide. Shorting in the short term must have a tight stop loss; shorting is shorting—don't hold on to death. Not setting a stop loss is just giving away money.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, it's even worse. With the Democrats controlling both chambers, the Trump-related crypto dividends are lost or even under investigation, and regulatory Damocles' sword hangs overhead. Ethereum has no new narrative, and a regulatory crackdown will cause the fastest drop. Smaller altcoins without support are being sold off heavily; don't try to catch a falling knife.
Look at $XAUT, gold and crude oil, the focus of geopolitical games. Whether there will be conflict in the Middle East depends on politicians' moods, and crude oil won't fall easily. Gold is the real bottom line; no matter how Washington fights internally, safe-haven buying firmly supports it, showing resilience far beyond the crypto world.
Going forward, the macro environment will be a double squeeze of bickering and stubbornness. Control your hands, endure this turmoil, survive, and then pick up chips again. #The transition between the old and new US Congress may affect the US-Iran situation Tonight at 21:30, the non-farm payrolls report is a key short-term catalyst.
The October non-farm payrolls are expected at 65,000, previous value 29,000, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.2%. The data directly impacts the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations.
If non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, rate cut expectations cool down, the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, putting pressure on BTC and ETH, aligning with the current bearish logic.
If the data meets expectations, there will be a brief recovery but it’s unlikely to change the weak trend.
If non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, it will temporarily trigger a rebound in rate cut expectations, but weak employment will raise recession concerns, limiting the rebound space.
Additionally, with the Democrats controlling both chambers, AI and crypto regulation expectations are tightening, so selling pressure remains above.
The market is likely to experience wide fluctuations and is unlikely to see a one-sided rebound. Focus on non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly wages, and the linkage between US Treasuries and the dollar. Wait for the data to be released before taking action; do not bet in advance.
$BTC $ETH
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ #IREN accelerates transformation to AI cloud, business revenue grows 182% quarter-on-quarter $LINK
Macroeconomic volatility can increase the value of oracles, but does it raise the valuation of LINK?
There is a clear event risk tonight with the employment report. When prices fluctuate sharply, reliable data becomes more important; however, there are still different transmission links between service necessity, actual payment, and token demand.
I focus on sustained calls and payment scale. If usage increases but does not strengthen token demand, valuation cannot be mechanically raised; if real revenue and economic rights improve simultaneously, the judgment is more justified.The rollercoaster market just ended, and tonight's non-farm payrolls are about to "stir things up" again?
The market these past two days probably shook many traders dizzy. First came the sudden, unanticipated sharp plunge, followed by a vengeful deep V-shaped rebound. BTC and US tech stocks played out an extreme "rollercoaster". Amid the double-sided liquidation, the sounds of forced liquidations kept rising.
This extreme "big ups and downs" essentially reflect a market sentiment that is highly unstable, with funds undergoing a frantic shakeout. Tonight at 21:30, the US October non-farm payroll data (expected employment increase of 65,000, unemployment rate 4.2%) will be released with heavy impact.
With the data combined with recent intense volatility, tonight's market will definitely be "hellishly difficult." If expectations deviate, it can easily trigger even more extreme spikes. In such a market, never bet on a one-sided surge or plunge at the instant of data release. $BTC $ETH $530 million gone in a flash, the ETF door closes faster than anyone else.
The combined net outflow of the US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on Thursday was about $530 million. Bitcoin fell below $76,000, US stocks declined simultaneously, and the post-election gains were basically wiped out. Source: Cointelegraph.
Bearish judgment: This is a direct signal of institutional funds withdrawing from the ETF channel, not just retail sentiment fluctuations. ETFs have been the main entry point for incremental funds over the past year. Continuous net outflows mean marginal buying disappears, and prices are more easily dominated by selling pressure; Bitcoin falling below $76,000 while dragging down US stocks is a macro-level risk aversion, not unique to the crypto space.
Observation points: In the short term, focus on whether ETF funds can stop the bleeding and whether there is support below $76,000; if outflows continue, high-beta assets like ETH usually fall more sharply. Involving $BTC, $ETH, the overall tone is bearish.
Are you more concerned about ETF funds stopping the bleeding or support below $76,000? According to the data from Lianshang, Big Brother Maji has just been liquidated again. In the past 4 days, he sold off 15 NFTs at a loss, barely raising about $223,000, which is roughly $505,000 less than his purchase cost. He put this money into the contract, but it was quickly wiped out again.
Now, he has accumulated losses of about $37.4 million on one contract position, and another position has lost about $909,000. His positions are basically still high-leverage long ETH trades. On one hand, he is selling Bored Apes at a loss to top up margin, and on the other hand, he keeps opening long positions, repeating the same drama over and over.
There are quite a few people like this in the crypto world—when they make money, it’s like they’re cheating; when they lose, it’s the same. Watching them makes your palms sweat.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC Retracement levels are not support levels; they are just the places where the price previously paused.
$BTC dropped from 107,736 to 57,761, and this move was sliced into several segments.
The 61.8% retracement level falls at 76,852.
How this number is calculated:
The difference between the high and low is 49,975, multiplied by 0.618 equals 30,884.
Subtracting this from the high gives 76,852.
The moment it was triggered:
On November 4th, the price reached this level, volume increased, and then it rebounded.
Currently at 80,693, it has moved back above this line.
Common misinterpretations:
The 50% level is at 82,749, about 2.5% away from being reached.
Below that, the 78.6% level is at 68,456, which is the next lower tier.
Retracement levels only indicate where the price has paused; they do not indicate that buyers stepped in at those levels.
A rebound accompanied by volume increase is what truly shows that real money has accepted that price.
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 $BTC $SOL — SHORT
entry: 89.61
tp1: 87.20
tp2: 84.50
stop: 93.20
$SOL has struggled to recover after its latest decline. The repeated inability to reclaim 90 keeps the downside scenario relevant.Continuing from the previous article, after this epic deep leverage cleanup, which coins are good for bottom fishing?
$UNI This round of decline was dragged down by macro sentiment, not due to any fundamental issues with the DEX; UNI has already started fee buyback and burn, supported by real cash flow, and is a DeFi leader. After the market stabilizes, it has great rebound potential. Current price is $7 for long, target seen at $7.143.
$KORU (3x long on South Korea KOSPI) The big drop was also caused by panic over AI regulation expectations, a short-term emotional overreaction. The core of the Korean stock market is storage chips, and the industry fundamentals remain intact. South Korea has expected bottom support policies, so you can try for a recovery rally. Current price is $7 for long, target also at $7.70.
$QQQ (Nasdaq 100) The sell-off was a valuation correction due to AI regulation concerns. The leading tech companies in Nasdaq have solid earnings; it is a broad tech index, more stable than altcoins, suitable for betting on emotional recovery. Current price is 655.80 for long, target seen at 668.85.
#US stocks face heavy sell-off: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index records largest single-day drop since March 2020 Just finished my current work, I only glanced at the overall market data and found that borrowing BTC for a year costs only 0.50%, while borrowing ZEC costs 14.27%, nearly 29 times the difference. Those who want to short ZEC haven't even started because the interest rate blocks them first. Who dares to short ZEC at this rate?
I’m not watching the K-line; I’m watching the borrowing rates: ETH is at 2.75%, SOL at 5.49%, gradually climbing step by step, and then ZEC doubles straight upMany people tend to see the decline in mining revenue as negative news, but I want to change the perspective first. On the contrary, does less mining necessarily mean worse operations?
IREN's mining revenue dropped by 58%, AI sales reached $200 million, and they plan to basically complete the mining business transformation by December. I think the decline alone shouldn't be judged as negative: the contraction of the old business aligns with the transformation direction; the AI annualized revenue target has been postponed to early 2027, so execution risk is what really needs attention.
At what level of mining revenue decline do you think it becomes dangerous rather than a normal exit? I welcome those with opposing views to debate.$AKE Today's surge is really a bit outrageous, pulling up from the pit to nearly double. Checked around and found no solid positive news, and the project side hasn't released anything new either. Feels like the contract shorts got squeezed; it dropped too hard before, so many were shorting, and once it pulled up, it triggered liquidations and short covering, causing a cascade. Data shows open interest dropping while price is rising, a classic short squeeze. There's also a trading competition running on OKX, which might have added some heat. But this small coin really has huge volatility, and unlocks are still ahead. Brothers chasing highs, be careful not to get hit back the other way.Bitcoin's return to $80,000 only lasted a short time before falling back to the $75,000 to $76,000 range. CryptoQuant attributes the decline to external factors: the sell-off of U.S. tech stocks and AI concept stocks dragged down risk appetite in the crypto market.
More notably, there is internal market divergence. Futures positions have improved, and leverage pressure is easing; however, spot buying has yet to recover. The derivatives structure is becoming healthier, but real demand is absent—this divergence means the price lacks fuel to push upward.
On-chain data is more subtle. On November 5, about 11,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges, and the 60-day net increase indicator for wallets holding over 10,000 BTC turned positive, signaling whale accumulation. But the scale of retail BTC inflows to Binance is increasing, and short-term holders face selling pressure. Big money is slowly accumulating, while small money is moving to exchanges—opposite directions.
There are two more drags on liquidity: weak capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and lackluster stablecoin liquidity. The former reflects institutional incremental funds on the sidelines, and the latter indicates insufficient ammunition across the market.
Overall, for $BTC to sustain a rebound, new spot buying must enter. Watch two things going forward: whether the $73,000 to $76,000 support holds, and whether spot demand and ETF capital flows show substantial improvement. Until signals appear, treat the rebound as just a rebound, not a reversal. The fate of $ETH and other major coins also depends on this.What is a trailing stop? How can you avoid exiting too early from a continuing trend while protecting existing profits?
In cryptocurrency trading, after a price increase, traders often face a dilemma: when should they take profits? Selling too early might miss out on further gains; holding on too long might gradually erode the profits already made. A trailing stop offers a dynamic way to manage exit points, but it also has its limitations.
First, what is a trailing stop?
A trailing stop is a strategy that adjusts the stop-loss position as the price moves favorably. For a long position, when the price keeps rising, the stop-loss can move up according to a preset distance or percentage; when the price falls back, the stop-loss usually does not automatically loosen downward.
Second, what are the advantages of a trailing stop?
It helps traders retain their positions during a continuing trend while gradually tightening risk as the price moves favorably. If the market keeps running, a trailing stop may allow traders to capture greater profits than a fixed take-profit.
Third, why can a trailing stop also trigger prematurely?
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; normal pullbacks may hit the stop-loss level, but the price then continues in the original direction. Setting the distance too close makes it easy to be triggered by short-term fluctuations; setting it too far may result in giving back a significant portion of profits.
Fourth, how to set a reasonable trailing distance
It can be determined by combining market volatility, support and resistance levels, and trading cycles, rather than mechanically applying a fixed percentage. Short-term strategies usually require attention to execution speed, while trend strategies should allow reasonable price fluctuations 【HiLo Big Gray Brother Morning Report】11/06 · AI sector faces liquidation, US stocks and crypto markets fall in resonance (1/2)
Good Friday morning!
Last night, US stocks experienced an epic crash, with QQQ plunging about 6%. The tech and storage sectors led the decline, with single-day drops exceeding 15%–20%. This wave of market action has directly started liquidating AI.
We have been tracking QQQ since two weeks ago. After breaking the daily trend last week, QQQ tested 730 twice but failed to hold above it. We warned that this might lead to a downward trend cycle, targeting the previous low around 660. Last night, the lowest point directly hit around 640, a drop of over 15% from 730.
From a larger timeframe perspective, this decline has broken below the post-2025 tariff war upward cycle. A "daily high" appeared at the top, and it may now be entering a downward cycle; the weekly support target below is 600, and the adjustment cycle may continue until next month.
#HiLoBigGrayBrotherMorningReport #QQQ #AI #USStocks #NasdaqState capital entering the crypto space has added a new case. The Kazakhstan government spent about $100 million, investing in several crypto funds including Brevan Howard Digital. Interestingly, the Kazakhstan central bank and its own national crypto fund (Alem Crypto Fund) have not yet publicly claimed this transaction, and the official announcement is still empty. This is not baseless; the groundwork has long been laid. In September 2025, the Alem Fund was established, and it had previously purchased BNB through Binance Kazakhstan. The Kazakhstan central bank is also evaluating allocating $300 to $350 million from reserves to crypto assets. But the approach is conservative: the first choice is to buy ETFs and high-tech stocks, rather than directly buying coins. They have set a clear target: by early 2026, to establish a national crypto reserve of $500 million to $1 billion. So this $100 million is most likely an execution step, just not yet publicly announced with fanfare. The "smart play" of national funds entering the market My own view is that the approach of national funds in this matter is very clear. They do not directly touch spot assets but invest through professional crypto funds or buy indirect products. The advantage of this approach is lower compliance risk: no need to handle private key management, exchange hacks, regulatory scrutiny, and other hassles themselves, leaving the professional matters to professional institutions. But the downside is also obvious: lack of transparency. What exactly was bought? What is the position size? Who is managing it? If this information is not disclosed, the outside world has no way of knowing the actual status of this national reserve.XINxINTC is flashing early signs of a potential trend reversal, currently rebounding to $54.24 (+5.03%) after a severe capitulation. The daily chart shows a classic "V-shaped" bounce forming off the critical $50.61 support level. This upward momentum is fundamentally backed by the recent Intel FY2026 Q3 earnings beat (EPS $0.52), which has injected fresh optimism.Will the positive earnings momentum be enough to sustain this rally and break the $60 resistance?After this round of continuous decline, it stopped falling around 75158. The bears went through a round of concentrated release, and the short-term short-selling momentum has weakened. The speed of decline has slowed down, entering a state of low-level oscillation and bottom consolidation, which is the technical foundation.
Combined with the news, the previously market-worried regulatory expectations have gradually been realized, the negative factors have already been priced in by the market, and the panic sentiment has cooled down. Some funds will choose to try to play the repair market at low levels, and there is room for emotional recovery. The high-level leveraged positions have basically been cleared, the selling pressure no longer continuously emerges, and the stability of the market oscillation is slowly improving. As long as the low point support holds, it leaves room for rebound and repair."Don't Just Look at the Breakout: Open Interest Is More Honest Than Price Gains"
Many people misunderstand an increase in open interest as "more people are bullish," which is the first mistake. Every contract has both long and short sides; open interest only answers one question: how many positions remain open on the table, and it does not directly tell you who holds the advantage.
It only makes sense when price and open interest are considered together.
Price up, open interest up: new positions keep entering, the trend has fuel. But if the funding rate also spikes sharply, it means the trade is getting crowded, so "strength" and "danger" may coexist.
Price up, open interest down: more like a closing push, often caused by short covering. A fast surge doesn't mean strong endurance; there must be active spot buying to take over next, or it’s prone to a pullback after the high.
Price down, open interest up: divergence and positions are both expanding; don’t rashly interpret the drop as a shakeout. What you should observe most is who is actively trading, not who is shouting the loudest.
Price down, open interest down: usually corresponds to deleveraging and position liquidation, possibly nearing clearance, but "nearing" does not mean "completed." You also need to see cooling funding rates, weakening selling pressure, and price stopping new lows.
Another common misconception: when the coin price rises, the nominal value of open interest measured in USD naturally grows. To compare open interest changes, it’s best to also look at coin-denominated quantities or contract counts, so as not to mistake price effects for new capital inflows.
My reading sequence has only twelve characters: price sets position, open interest sets nature, volume sets direction, funding rate sets crowding.
Discussion: Does a rise caused by short covering count as a true breakout?
My answer is: the price breakout is real, but the trend breakout is not yet proven. Passive closing can create the first phase of speed; sustained active buying decides the second phase of space.
Poll: Which combination do you most easily misjudge—A. price up open interest up; B. price up open interest down; C. price down open interest down; D. ignore open interest, only look at candlesticks.
I choose B. Because "rising prices" most easily make people relax their guard, while a decrease in open interest precisely reminds you: this rise may mainly come from opponents retreating, not new friends entering.
Not investment advice, risk on your own. $BTC #MarketAnalysisThe crypto market has really been a roller coaster these past two days: just the day before, BTC was pulled back above $80,000, but the next day, with the US stock market crashing, almost all the gains were wiped out, and BTC once dropped to around $75,700. Yesterday, the Nasdaq plunged 5.5%, the S&P fell 4.4%, and the crypto market saw over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, with longs getting collectively harvested again. To put it simply, it’s not necessarily that the crypto fundamentals suddenly worsened, but that market risk appetite cooled down, and leverage couldn’t hold up. It’s Friday today, so don’t rush to bottom-fish; first, see if the US stock market can stabilize. The market tends to punish overexcitement—chasing rallies and panic selling are the easiest ways to get hit from both sides. $BTC $ETH $QQQ An interesting divergence has appeared: Bitcoin is trading ahead of the nonfarm payrolls with a slight strength but continues to dip, while on the other side, the US stock $XLV is steadily rising.
Capital is rotating into the defensive healthcare sector. On one hand, the risk of healthcare policy decreases after the midterm elections; on the other hand, everyone is worried about sustained high interest rates, withdrawing from high-volatility tech and risk assets to seek refuge in more stable pharmaceutical profits.
However, this is a risk-off market, not a mindless bull run. Once the nonfarm payroll data is released and expectations reverse, the funds that have moved in will also flow out quickly.
$BTC I'M WATCHING A BIG SHORT ON $OKB.
EP: 104.21
TP: 103.00
SL: 106.00
Sellers dominate post-dump from 113.46. The trend remains bearish. Holding below 106.00 keeps 104.00 support under pressure. Invalidation is a close above 106.00. Stay sharp.Nasdaq 100 plunged 6.4%, evaporating about 2.3 trillion in a single day, while S&P component stocks shrank nearly 2.9 trillion. The AI narrative revaluation combined with post-election regulatory concerns forced multi-strategy funds to liquidate positions, multiple institutions laid off staff and returned funds, with some opinions stating the liquidation scale is the highest since 2009.
BTC current price is about 75500, key level at 74800 (the critical line between long and short positions)
ETH current price is about 2220, key level at 2180
Holding these levels could trigger a short-term rebound; breaking them would open up further downside. #US stocks face heavy sell-off: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index records largest single-day drop since March 2020 Saw an on-chain record: a huge whale deposited 1 million UNI to Binance in two days, worth about 7.32 million USD.
I was about to curse "dumping again," but then I checked this person's background — over a year ago, they got 20.32 million UNI from Uniswap's locked address, worth about 139 million USD.
In other words, this deposit they casually made isn't even a drop in the bucket. 7.32 million is a fortune to us, but to them, it's just tossing some spare change to test the waters.
Retail investors focus on K-line support levels, but this person’s cost basis is extremely low; they profit no matter when they sell. UNI holders should watch the chain more and analysts less these days.Just finished my work, I only glanced at the overall market data and noticed that borrowing BTC for a year costs only 0.50%, while borrowing ZEC costs 14.27%, nearly 29 times more. Those wanting to short ZEC haven't even started because the interest is blocking them. Who dares to short ZEC at this rate?
I’m not watching the K-line; I’m watching borrowing costs: ETH is at 2.75%, SOL at 5.49%, gradually climbing step by step, and then ZEC doubles right away; it even hit 15.20% this morning before dropping back to 14.27% in the afternoon.
Interest rates don’t lie. Cheap borrowing means no rush to borrow; when it’s this expensive, people are lining up to borrow, mostly to short or hedge. If you want to crash the market, you have to pay the toll first, and this fee burns daily 🔥
There’s another layer: with so many borrowing ZEC, shorts are actually suffering. If they can’t push the price down, interest still accrues daily, and if the price goes up even a bit, the first to rush to repay are the shorts, which ironically fuels the price rise.
BTC is the quietest here: borrowing costs are the lowest, perpetual contracts have a slight discount, no one is rushing for spot, and no one wants to pay extra for contracts. All the heat is piled on the smaller coins, not the big brother.
Honestly, my long positions are still stuck. I felt itchy to add more several times this afternoon but pulled back. The queue of borrowers hasn’t cleared, and there are still people holding back, ready to act. Why rush to snatch? I’ll hold the itch for now and won’t rush before the results.
I’ll decide after tonight’s non-farm payroll release: if I move, I’ll only touch the cheapest borrowing BTC; I won’t short ZEC with a 14.27% toll—whoever wants to pay it, go ahead. $$BTC Just now, the 15-minute candlestick surged up and then fell back. The price pierced through the high left at noon, then left a long upper shadow. It closed back below the high, eating up all the stop-loss orders above. That surge startled me, but it turned out to be a false breakout to lure bulls. Although short-term bulls appeared, they were pushed back, and the bears did not release much volume.
Switching the chart to 4 hours. When it dropped sharply last night breaking the previous low, the close quickly pulled back. The stop-loss orders below were already cleared last night. The price tried to fall several more times but failed to break below around 75,000. This support line was tested multiple times but still held.
The daily-level support is stuck around 75,000. Several candlesticks in the larger timeframe tested the bottom, but bears did not create new lows. Every time it reached the bottom, buy orders came to defend the price. The bears’ force to push deeper has weakened, and short-term pullbacks cannot change the overall direction.
I still lean bullish. The daily defense line has held the bottom from falling further, and it will most likely stabilize and rebound, probably testing around 76,000 next.
$ETH $SOL #摩根士丹利接入DTCC，证券代币化拓展机构应用 Tonight at 21:30, the US October nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate will be released together. Hopefully, the market won't crash again like last time.
What really matters isn't the 65,000 figure, but whether the 4.2% unemployment rate will be revised upward.
First, let's look at the expectations: nonfarm payrolls increase by 65,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%.
But looking at the timeline, employment momentum has been steadily declining:
January 2025 expectation was 170,000, February 160,000, dropped to 75,000 in August, further revised down to 59,000 in March 2026, while the unemployment rate expectation rose from 4.0%–4.1% to 4.2%–4.4%.
This "consensus" of 65,000 is unreliable in itself.
In the August 2026 institutional outlook, Vanguard gave +10,000, BNP Paribas and ING both gave +75,000 — a difference of more than 7 times between the lowest and highest. There is no consensus on the labor market direction, and a single expected value easily underestimates the volatility at the moment of data release.
For crypto, whether the unemployment rate of 4.2% will be revised upward is more directly impactful on the rate cut path than whether nonfarm payrolls hit exactly 65,000.
Watch the nonfarm payrolls for the spectacle, but watch the unemployment rate for the real story. Don't just focus on one number tonight.
#非农今晚揭晓，美股大跌后市场如何押注12月加息？ Last night, the Nasdaq 100 plummeted 6.36%, and $BTC was not spared either...
It dropped from above $80,000 all the way down to around $75,000, with a 24-hour decline exceeding 6%. The crypto market also saw liquidations exceeding $1 billion.
I have been paying close attention to the correlation between BTC and the US stock market, and this time it once again confirmed a phenomenon:
When global capital starts to concentrate on reducing risk exposure, BTC still struggles to stay unaffected; especially when market volatility spikes sharply, leveraged liquidations further amplify short-term declines.
Currently, BTC has returned to the previous key low area, around $75,000, which deserves close attention.
I remain cautious for now; short-term rebounds do not change the overall weak structure.
If BTC fails to hold even the $75,000 level going forward, then previous assessments about market stabilization will need to be reevaluated. 90 major coins, and surprisingly 84 of them rose simultaneously?
Out of 90 major coins, 84 went up, but such a broad rally may not necessarily continue?
Today I saw a set of market data reported by TokenPost.
In a market snapshot on the evening of November 4, among the top 90 crypto assets by market cap, excluding stablecoins, 84 were in an uptrend.
That means 93.3% of the sample were rising!
Among them, INJ rose about 13.14%, BTC rose 5.39%, and ETH rose 7.91%.
This data is more interesting than just looking at BTC's gains because it reflects whether the rally has spread to more coins.
But note, this is just a snapshot of the 24-hour price change at that time and does not mean the market has entered a sustained broad rally.
What do you think is the better indicator to judge if a rebound is sustainable: whether BTC can hold its ground, or whether the number of rising coins can stay high? $BTC $ETH #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $SNDK Did Bitcoin gain 5% in one day? Could you handle it?
Many people are still wondering if Bitcoin is acting erratically?
Let me share my view and first outline the recent timeline: the neighboring exchange was hacked (crashing the market, hitting market confidence) — then stabilized (combined with election expectations, retail investors thought it was just a pullback and continued shorting) — election results came out (price surged, making retail investors think the bad news was over, bulls followed) — then a sharp drop (wiping out retail investors).
Overall, this looks like a coordinated harvest led by CZ. The evil capitalists don’t see us retail investors as people, just as dogs to be walked.
What’s next?
Personally, I think the crypto sector will see another wave of decline. The financial market hasn’t stabilized, panic is rising, bulls have limited capacity to support, and liquidity is insufficient, so the correction will be prolonged.
Regarding storage, the Democratic Progressive Party is cooperating with capital to harvest through proposals. Many believe storage has entered a cycle and is a cyclical asset; I will agree with this view in three years.
Currently, storage is definitely not done; demand remains, and the great power competition continues. If the US abandons AI, it’s like cutting off its own arm. That’s impossible; the Democratic Progressive Party is not stupid.
The next two weeks will still see significant volatility. Friends, make sure to survive first.
When August 8th comes in autumn, after my flowers bloom, all others will wither.ETF outflow of $1.1 billion in one week: Who's running, and how hard?
For every $1 billion outflow from ETFs, the coin price is dragged down about 3.4% — by this measure, just this week's selling pressure is enough to push $BTC down further from 80,000.
Yesterday, the coin price lingered around the 80,000 mark without daring to rise, and this is one of the reasons.
Who's running?
The main outflow comes from short-term funds in large ETFs like IBIT; essentially, institutions are doing risk control — with nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike and tech stocks crashing yesterday dragging down risk appetite, fund managers' first reaction is to cut the easiest positions, and Bitcoin, as a "high Beta asset," is at the top of the layoff list.
Don't treat ETF outflows as the end of the world.
First, Strategy is still quietly buying, holding a total of 849,000 coins, so the long-term money hasn't left; second, historically, concentrated ETF outflow phases often coincide with local bottoms, and the loudest sell signals usually appear closest to the lows.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is the moment of judgment!
$ETH $SNDK
#比特币承压，ETF近7日净流出约11亿美元 What I'm focusing on is the detail that Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin; the decline itself is not the only key point. According to The Defiant, $ETH dropped 8.5% to $2220; on November 5, the US Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $99.9 million, whereas the day before it was a net inflow of $53 million. This is somewhat interesting, but don't rush to see the decline as an opportunity. 👀
My judgment is that this news is somewhat bearish for sentiment around Ethereum-related small-cap coins. Right now, it looks more like a test of risk tolerance rather than a signal that "after a big drop, rotation should happen." When mainstream assets are all weak, it’s harder to find reasons for high-volatility assets supported only by narratives to take over.
Here, I will analyze separately: underperforming Bitcoin means this can’t be explained solely by the overall market decline; the ETF funds turning from inflows to outflows also weaken the imagination of sustained capital support. If risk-off sentiment continues to spread, then smaller coins with thinner liquidity might experience amplified volatility—this is my speculation, not a confirmed outcome from the news. Conversely, if independent demand emerges in related sectors, then there is a basis to discuss differentiation opportunities.
I will first observe which directions are just following the decline and which can still provide evidence of demand and activity, not substituting judgment with cheap prices. What sectors in the Ethereum ecosystem have you been paying attention to recently? When encountering this kind of mainstream coin weakness, which demand aspect do you most want to verify?Tap my avatar, top right corner to enter 👗
HYPE and INJ, there are two ways to collect money in this lively business
$HYPE 77.27 USDT, down 8.3% in the past 24 hours; $INJ 8.311 USDT, meanwhile up 2.7%. Both have on-chain trading business, but their prices are not moving in the same direction. The trading ecosystem behind HYPE allows some HIP-3 markets to enter growth mode, reducing protocol fees by 90%. This is a design that trades cheaper to increase usage, so when judging revenue, both transaction volume and actual fee rate must be considered; busier trading does not necessarily mean revenue increases proportionally. INJ’s community buyback requires eligible participants to stake tokens and receive ecosystem income proportionally, with the staked tokens subsequently burned. It directly links participation cost with income distribution, focusing on how much the income pool can hold rather than treating “buyback” as a free lunch. The 24-hour counter-trend rise is worth noting but cannot be taken as proof that a buyback round caused the increase. $BICO reported at 0.01360 USDT, down 8.7% in the past 24 hours. After rebounding from a low of 0.01314, it approached 0.0137 several times but failed to break away. The decline has temporarily turned into a tug-of-war, with recovery at lows but limited upward movement. Such a trend easily makes people mistake a single price jump as a breakout, but sustained trading above is the key; otherwise, every rise feels like climbing the same flight of stairs again. Each on-chain business has its highlights, but short-term pricing has indeed split into three paths. Flash Earn is offering limited-time USDT airdrop access, with displayed APRs of 2.83% on BTC and 8.34% on ETH
The opportunity looks attractive, especially for long-term holders. But higher APR doesn't automatically mean better returns. Check subscription limits, lock-up terms, reward conditions and platform risk before committing funds
My take:Earn passive yield without sacrificing risk management. Never lock up assets you may need during market volatility.
#CryptoEarningsPressure
$BTC $ETH The seven giants evaporated one trillion dollars in one day. On November 5 Eastern Time, which is the early morning of November 6 Beijing Time, the U.S. stock market experienced its worst day since the tariff shock in April 2025. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.52%, closing at 24,315 points, down more than 10% from last month's high, entering a technical correction. The S&P 500 dropped 4.36%, and the Dow Jones fell 3.44%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12.25% in a single day, the worst since March 2020. The volatility index rose to about 28, and fear sentiment resurfaced. The combined market value of the seven giants evaporated by more than one trillion dollars. Nvidia led the decline, losing over 440 billion in market value in one day, with its stock price down 9.26%, turning negative for the year. AMD fell 17.26%, Micron dropped 17.46%, and SanDisk fell 22.26%. The technology sector was under pressure across the board, with none of the eleven major sectors closing in the green. Earnings reports were not the main cause. What was really sold off was data center delivery. Microsoft is tightening control over third-party data centers. Bloomberg cited insiders reporting that Microsoft is strengthening supervision of data center projects from new-generation cloud providers such as Nebius, IREN, and Nscale, withdrawing from projects it considers too risky, and internally discussing whether to sign new similar agreements. Reuters followed up on this news the same day. Details are written at the construction site. IREN's project in Texas encountered cable issues, and Microsoft discussed a new schedule with IREN last week, completing#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
This sharp drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is not a simple correction.
The semiconductor sector is one of the most important engines of this AI rally. How much it fell today is not the key point; rather, capital is starting to doubt: after investing so much money earlier, can AI ultimately bring enough profit?
There are three points:
1. Valuations in the AI industry chain are beginning to loosen.
In the past, the market was willing to give chip companies very high valuations because everyone believed AI demand would continue to explode. Now that AI investment is increasing, how much profit can companies make in the future? Can the return on capital keep up with the scale of investment?
Once this is questioned, the first to be sold off are the semiconductor companies with the highest valuations and largest gains.
2. It's not just emotional panic, but also real pressure.
Besides the possibility that data center construction may be restricted by policies after the election, chip companies themselves are facing pressure on earnings expectations. Qualcomm's disappointing earnings guidance further undermines market confidence.
3. The real danger is that capital is starting to collectively withdraw.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 12% in a single day, marking the largest drop since March 2020. Such a decline means the sector is undergoing a significant risk revaluation. What's more troublesome is the strong linkage among stocks related to chips, memory, servers, and data centers. Once the leaders lose support, the entire industry chain will be impacted.
This is not a signal that the AI industry has peaked, but the phase where AI stocks could continuously push valuations higher based solely on growth expectations is coming to an end. "Seven days, from earning 760,000 to only 58,000"
Another bloody real account. Seven days ago, a certain account had an unrealized profit of $760,000. When tech stocks crashed, it turned into a loss of $956,000, leaving equity at only $58,000. The breaking point is clear: SOXL is a triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF, and he added 7x leverage on top, effectively 21x naked long on semiconductors. Entry at 85.82, exit at 46.68, price halved, a loss of 1.77 million, a return of -321%. Another position in SNDK was even more extreme, 22x full position long, entered at 855, exited at 819, loss of 108,000, -93.4%.
The most heartbreaking part is that his 30-day win rate was 85%. When the wind is favorable, leverage acts like an accelerator; when against the wind, leverage is the guillotine. Winning nine times, one all-in bet wiped it all out and then some. Fifteen years of trading experience only proves one thing: don’t mistake luck for skill, and don’t treat full-position high leverage as faith. When the market turns, it doesn’t even give you a chance to get off.
The recap is just three sentences: don’t bet on single stocks, don’t go full position, don’t stack leverage. Stay alive to have the next round.
$#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $SNDK is currently showing a high-level pullback followed by a consolidation recovery trend, with the latest price at 863.3 USDT, a 24-hour increase of +3.66%, but down about 14% from the previous high of 1,007.6. From a technical perspective, the 1-hour candlestick chart shows the price has fallen below the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages, indicating a short-term weak trend, but trading volume has moderately increased, indicating some capital is accumulating at low levels.
From the fundamentals and market sentiment, SNDK has recently been suppressed by multiple negative factors:
The US midterm election results have raised concerns about AI regulation, with the Democratic Party controlling Congress possibly delaying data center construction, directly impacting storage chip demand expectations;
The storage sector as a whole is under pressure, with peers like Micron and Western Digital also falling, and the industry cycle turning point remains unclear;
Although the company’s Q2 earnings report was impressive (revenue up 377% year-over-year, net profit up 7133% year-over-year), the market is more focused on the sustainability of future growth, and valuation premiums face digestion pressure.
On the capital side, the open interest in perpetual contracts surged 48.3% in 24 hours, with longs needing to pay funding rates, showing increased market divergence. Some investors are speculating on a rebound, but overall sentiment remains cautious.
In the short term, SNDK may consolidate in the 800–880 range. If it can effectively hold above MA20 (854.2) and break out with volume, it is expected to start a new upward phase; otherwise, if it breaks below the previous low of 793.7, it may further test support levels. It is recommended to pay attention to US AI policy developments and changes in the storage chip price index as important references for subsequent operations.At 4:30 PM, on the eve of the main European session entry, BTC dipped close to 75,600, squeezing out the false short squeeze before the bears returned to the city walls.
Just checked the latest on-chain liquidations: the rebound to 80,000 was a fake breakout triggering a second cascade, with long positions liquidated again surging; although some platforms provided payout guarantees, ETFs continued to flow out and market-making depth halved, the buy side is severely fractured, and the price is heavily suppressed around 75,600.
$BTC: Hanging by a thread at 75,600, rallying then falling back close to previous low support
Previous reference price was 80,200. After hitting resistance at 80,500, momentum was exhausted, and 77,500 quickly turned into resistance. The order book buy side is extremely fragile; if the 75,000 level is lost, beware of a drop to 73,500.
$ETH: Lost the 2,300 level, retreating to weak consolidation at 2,260
Previous reference price was 2,410. Weak follow-through buying combined with selling pressure shadows, the exchange rate probes new lows again. Currently pulling back to 2,260 in a tug-of-war; if the 2,200 defense line breaks, a faster drop to 2,100 is feared.
$SOL: Rebound blocked at the 100 mark, falling back to oscillate near 93
Previous reference price was 97. Rally to 97 met with selling pressure from unlocking positions, falling back to 93. Severely insufficient depth to absorb, chips loosening obviously, the rebound is very likely to trigger a second sell-off.
Summary: The fake breakout lured buyers before quickly pulling back, BTC bottoming near 75,600, altcoins showing even weaker support. Prices and funds are still searching for a bottom.
With the US stock market opening soon, the real stable bottom has yet to form.
Do you think BTC will hold the 75,000 limit to build a bottom, or will it break through 73,000 directly?👇
#美国新旧国会交接或影响美伊局势 Tech stocks are collapsing across the board, yet cryptocurrencies are still holding on stubbornly. This divergence itself is the most dangerous signal. $BTC and $ETH are definitely not at a bottom now; the underlying logic of this downturn is much deeper than it appears on the surface. First, look at the most direct trigger: the shift in the Democratic Party's stance directly ignited the broad sell-off in tech stocks. Tech stocks and crypto assets share a high correlation in risk appetite, so when the Nasdaq is under pressure, $BTC and $ETH can hardly remain unaffected. This is not a simple sector rotation but a collective repricing of long-duration risk assets by capital. The rebound script from a few days ago no longer applies under the current environment. Greater pressure comes from the interest rate side. The probability of a rate hike in December still hovers around 80%, a heavy mountain pressing down on risk assets, making it almost impossible for the market to move lightly. As long as this probability does not substantially decline, any rebound will look more like a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. $ETH, as a high-beta asset, is more sensitive to liquidity expectations; without easing rate hike expectations, its upside is tightly capped. Tonight's nonfarm payroll data is the real decisive factor. It will directly determine the Fed's next policy path, meaning tonight's reading will recalibrate the entire market's pricing of the December rate hike. Rushing to bottom-fish before this key data is essentially betting on an answer that has not yet been revealed. From a price perspective, if tonight's price dips into the 74,000 to 72,000 range, that level is worth seriously considering phased entry. But note, if it really$UNI
I don't directly count this 1 million UNI as a dump. Lookonchain reported that a certain whale transferred about 1 million UNI, worth approximately $7.32 million at the time, to Binance in the past two days; this whale received 20.32 million UNI from Uniswap Timelock over a year ago. Moving tokens into an exchange is a risk signal, but it doesn't mean all 1 million UNI have been sold yet.
The market is indeed weak. OKX spot is around $7.017, dropping from $7.613 to a low of $6.616 in 24 hours; perpetual positions are about $43.99 million, and the funding rate I found is about 0.01%, with longs bearing the cost. The $7.32 million mentioned in the news is calculated at the price back then, not the current value of these tokens.
I will look at net inflows to exchanges and price support together, noting the risk from individual address actions first without completing the latter part of the story for them.
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Participated in the internal test of #OKX US stock simple options, launching just in time this week.
Taking $SNDK as an example, panic has already spread, and implied volatility has exploded. Even if you bottom fish successfully, the rebound may not come quickly. This is one of the best scenarios for "selling puts."
Here, selling the 800 "put" means that as long as it holds above 800 after one week, you can earn nearly 5% profit. To understand further, even if it drops another 5% after reaching 800, you still won't lose after one week.
In the worst case, you buy SNDK at 800 x 0.95 price after one week.Nonfarm payroll night, the "script" for gold has actually already been written
Tonight at 21:30, the October nonfarm payrolls will be released. The market expects an increase of 65,000, with the previous value at 29,000; the unemployment rate is steady at 4.2%, and the month-over-month hourly wage is expected to rise to 0.3%.
The number itself is not critical; what matters is the direction of deviation from the "65,000" expectation.
Yesterday, gold prices surged to 4147 but were pushed back near 4050, failing to hold above 4100. On the surface, this looks like profit-taking, but fundamentally, the market is hesitant to bet unilaterally before the nonfarm data. Federal Reserve officials are sending hawkish signals while there are also noises of a surge in layoff data; both bulls and bears are waiting for a signal to break the deadlock.
My view is cautious: if the data is only a "moderate" level that "meets expectations," gold will most likely continue to grind between 4030 and 4100, because the month-over-month wage increase will suppress rate cut expectations, but the absolute employment figures are not strong enough to form a one-sided driving force. What really needs caution is if the data unexpectedly comes in strong—even if it exceeds expectations by just twenty or thirty thousand, combined with hourly wages no longer slowing year-over-year, December tightening expectations will be revived. If gold cannot hold above 4030, then around 3975 will be the next decent support.
Conversely, if employment is clearly below expectations and the unemployment rate rises, gold will have the conditions to seriously test the 4150–4200 range. But last night’s rise and fall already reminded us of one thing: gold is not short of bullish stories now; it lacks funds willing to heavily bet before the data.
On nonfarm night, less movement is more valuable than more movement. Wait for the data release and see how the first 30-minute candle closes; that’s more reliable than guessing the direction. $XAUT $BTC
Asian tech stocks have fallen so much, but I'm not in a hurry to label BTC as 'crypto independently weakening.' Let's look at the hard data first: OKX spot is around $75,622, falling from about $80,554 in 24 hours, with a low of $75,200; perpetual positions are about $2.663 billion, with a rate of 0.002%, longs are still paying, but it's far from crowded.
The price is very close to the daily low, but leveraged positions haven't shown obvious high premiums. Right now, it looks more like risk assets are being sold off together; you can't force a large on-chain transfer to mean accumulation, nor can you take a single low point as the trend answer.
I'll first see if the spot can stop the selling pressure. Before macro sentiment stabilizes, the reason to bottom-fish needs to be more than just 'it has fallen a lot.'
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 The market is holding its breath ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls release, and crypto is trading like a rate-sensitive macro instrument rather than an independent asset class. $BTC sits at 76,403 and $ETH at 2,263, both having surrendered an earlier rally and entered the print with visibly weak momentum. The transmission channel is straightforward. A hot employment report would reinforce expectations of a December rate hike, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields while draining risk appetite. InIn two days, a whale deposited 1 million UNI tokens worth approximately 7.32 million USD to Binance through two addresses. On-chain transfers are not encrypted, so this transaction was fully recorded.
Breaking down the numbers is even more interesting. This whale received 20.32 million UNI from the Uniswap UNI Timelock address over a year ago, valued at about 139 million USD at that time. The 1 million UNI deposited to the exchange this time represents only a small portion of their holdings—more like a tentative sell-off rather than a full exit.
Mechanically, chips flowing out from the team’s locked address have a very low cost basis, so selling at any price is profitable. The only constraint is the pace: dumping too much at once would break market depth, so depositing in batches is the rational approach. This time, splitting the deposit into two addresses over two days fits this pace perfectly.
The impact should be viewed on two levels. 7.32 million USD is not a devastating sell pressure for UNI’s daily volume, but the signal that "team-associated whales are starting to transfer to exchanges" is more worrisome than the amount itself. The first deposit is rarely the last.
Short-term outlook: UNI’s rebound will be suppressed by this layer of sell pressure, and a sharp rally might actually be a window for selling.
One question remains: Should the chips unlocked from the Timelock be valued as "newly circulating supply" or as a "dormant bomb that could awaken anytime after years of sleep"?Last night, global risk assets collectively plummeted, but $PEPE's performance actually surprised me😯
BTC dropped more than 6% in the past 24 hours, while PEPE only fell about 1.8% during the same period
Intraday, it once dipped to around 0.00000463, then quickly recovered most of the losses, climbing back above 0.0000049
This is definitely worth paying attention to👀
Logically, PEPE, as a sentiment-driven meme, should face greater selling pressure during global market panic; but this time its relative performance was clearly stronger than BTC, at least indicating that short-term selling pressure hasn't continuously suppressed the price
I've always liked using PEPE to observe market speculative sentiment, and this time is no different
If BTC stabilizes later and PEPE continues to maintain this relative strength, I will prioritize watching for its rebound opportunities
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Is a big player bottom-fishing???
An address that has been dormant for over a year withdrew 1,286 bitcoins from an exchange today, valued at about $76,230 each at the time, totaling approximately $98.03 million.
More than a year ago, the same address deposited 5,699 bitcoins to the exchange at an average price of about $89,291 each, totaling around $509 million. After being silent for so long, the move now is a withdrawal, and the current price is lower than when the coins were deposited back then.
Another on-chain source with the same data also points to the same address, showing a total withdrawal of 1,286 bitcoins in batches within 24 hours, about $98 million. Bitcoin's current price has dropped to around $75,700, down about 6% in 24 hours.
Some interpret this withdrawal as reclaiming coins at a lower price. The amount and dormancy period are clear; whether the coins will be hoarded further or used otherwise is not yet visible on-chain.
Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC