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taishiro
taishiro
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The HBM trade is becoming a capacity allocation story, not just an AI demand story. When memory inventory gets this tight, chipmakers face a choice: prioritize high margin HBM or supply conventional DRAM. That competition can push memory prices higher, but it also makes supply normalization the biggest risk to the trade. SK Hynix has the advantage today, but Samsung's progress shows that leadership is not guaranteed. #SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook
ARRIWYKS
ARRIWYKS
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings #Hynix 云 +AI HBM4 云 = 现在的瓶颈是内存,不是 GPU HBM 市场 380亿美元→580亿美元 +52% 26E,850亿美元 27E。SK = 62% HBM 市场份额,*∼70% 的 NVDA Vera Rubin HBM4*(TrendForce)对比估计的 50%。16 层堆叠 = 576GB/层 对比 HBM3E 8Gb → 带宽翻倍。 看涨原因:库存 <10 天(史上首次)。晶圆 15-20 万/月,是美光的 3-4 倍,50% → HBM4 = DDR5 受挤压 → Q4 DRAM +10-15%,NAND +15-20%。JPM 预期 20% *风险:* 三星第三季度 HBM 87 亿美元 > SK 76 亿美元,首次* *OKX 策略:做多 HBM 杠杆,做空 PC DDR。*

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