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The HBM trade is becoming a capacity allocation story, not just an AI demand story.
When memory inventory gets this tight, chipmakers face a choice: prioritize high margin HBM or supply conventional DRAM. That competition can push memory prices higher, but it also makes supply normalization the biggest risk to the trade.
SK Hynix has the advantage today, but Samsung's progress shows that leadership is not guaranteed.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook
ARRIWYKS
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
#Hynix Cloud +AI HBM4 Cloud = Estrangulamento de memória agora, não GPU
Mercado HBM $38B→$58B +52% 26E, $85B 27E. SK = 62% quota HBM, *∼70% do HBM4 Vera Rubin da NVDA* (TrendForce) vs 50% estimado. 16 camadas = 576GB/camada vs HBM3E 8Gb → 2x BW.
Porquê otimista: Inventário <10 dias (primeira vez). Wafers 150-200k/mês 3-4x Micron, 50% → HBM4 = DDR5 comprimido → Q4 DRAM +10-15% NAND +15-20%. JPM prevê 20%
*Riscos:* Samsung $8.7B HBM Q3 > SK $7.6B pela primeira vez*
*Jogo OKX: Longo em alavancagem HBM, curto em PC DDR.*
Aviso legal: o conteúdo do OKX Orbit é fornecido apenas para fins informativos. Saber mais
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