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taishiro
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The HBM trade is becoming a capacity allocation story, not just an AI demand story.
When memory inventory gets this tight, chipmakers face a choice: prioritize high margin HBM or supply conventional DRAM. That competition can push memory prices higher, but it also makes supply normalization the biggest risk to the trade.
SK Hynix has the advantage today, but Samsung's progress shows that leadership is not guaranteed.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook
ARRIWYKS
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
#Hynix Cloud +AI HBM4 Cloud = Bottleneck memori sekarang, bukan GPU
Pasar HBM $38Miliar→$58Miliar +52% 26E, $85Miliar 27E. SK = 62% pangsa pasar HBM, *∼70% dari NVDA Vera Rubin HBM4* (TrendForce) vs estimasi 50%. 16 tumpukan = 576GB/tumpukan vs HBM3E 8Gb → 2x BW.
Alasan bullish: Inventaris <10 hari (pertama kalinya). Wafer 150-200k/bulan 3-4x Micron, 50% → HBM4 = DDR5 tertekan → Q4 DRAM +10-15% NAND +15-20%. JPM melihat 20%
*Risiko:* Samsung $8,7Miliar HBM Q3 > SK $7,6Miliar untuk pertama kalinya*
*OKX play: Long HBM leverage, short PC DDR.*
Penafian: Konten OKX Orbit ini hanya disediakan untuk tujuan informasi. Selengkapnya
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