#GoldETFsVsHighRates
About GoldETFsVsHighRates
Les ETF d’or ont tiré environ 10 milliards de dollars en septembre, portant les entrées du troisième trimestre à un record de 31 milliards de dollars. Les avoirs ont augmenté de 67 tonnes pour atteindre un record de 4 256 tonnes. Pourtant, l’or au comptant est tombé à environ 4 066 dollars/once le 7 octobre, son plus bas niveau depuis le 5 août. Un dollar plus fort, des rendements du Trésor plus élevés et une réduction des positions à terme sur les contrats à terme pourraient peser sur les prix. L’inflation due à l’énergie pourrait également maintenir les taux élevés. La demande d’ETF peut-elle soutenir l’or, ou les taux, le dollar et la position sur les contrats à terme continueront-ils de dominer ?
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BREAKING: Global central banks acquired +39 tonnes of gold in August, marking their 5th consecutive monthly purchase.
This follows +23 tonnes in July and +52 tonnes in June.
China again led demand, adding +20 tonnes and bringing its year-to-date purchases to +80 tonnes.
China’s official gold reserves have now risen to a record 2,387 tonnes, or 9% of its total FX reserves.
Furthermore, Poland bought +8 tonnes, lifting its year-to-date purchases to +98 tonnes and total gold reserves to a record 648 tonnes.
So far in 2026, central banks have acquired +170 tonnes of gold.
Central banks continue to aggressively accumulate gold.
The gold market is currently at a critical juncture marked by a fierce standoff between bullish and bearish forces. Record-breaking capital inflows into global gold ETFs, continued increases in central bank gold purchases, and the renewed escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East have collectively formed a three-tiered support system beneath gold prices. Data from the World Gold Council shows that even amid an environment of high interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar, strategic investors continue to increase their holdings against the trend, indicating that market pricing logic has shifted from the traditional “interest rate-driven” model to a diversified framework centered on “credit hedging and reserve diversification.” However, the persistence of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, the elevated levels of U.S. Treasury yields, and the uncertainty surrounding this week’s key data—including the CPI report—continue to cap the short-term rebound in gold prices. Looking ahead, the direction of gold prices will depend on the evolution of three key variables: whether Wednesday’s CPI data can alleviate market concerns about inflation stickiness, whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further into a broader energy supply disruption, and whether subsequent remarks by Federal Reserve officials signal a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes. If the CPI data comes in weaker than expected and is compounded by escalating geopolitical risks, gold prices are likely to break through $4,230 and challenge the $4,300 to $4,400 range; conversely, if inflation data is strong and hawkish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve further solidify, gold prices may retreat back to around $4,100 or even $4,060 to seek support. #XAUUSD #CPI
#GoldETFsVsHighRates 🥇 Gold Is Rising Despite the Interest-Rate Debate!
Gold can attract investors seeking diversification and protection during uncertainty. Higher interest rates can create headwinds, but inflation expectations, central-bank demand, and geopolitical risks also matter.
Which would you rather hold during uncertainty: gold, Bitcoin, or both?
#GoldETFsVsHighRates
Record ETF inflows and rising holdings show that strategic demand for gold remains intact. But a falling spot price alongside a firmer dollar, higher Treasury yields and lighter futures longs suggests the marginal price setter is still macro liquidity.
My read: ETF demand can cushion drawdowns, yet it may not reverse them until rate and dollar pressure ease. The tension is whether inflation keeps yields restrictive for longer.
#GoldETFsVsHighRates
