Well reasoned, and I agree with the core caution. History rhymes, it rarely repeats clean. The 2023 pattern needed falling rates, fresh liquidity, and broad participation. Today we have the opposite: high rates, quiet retail flow, and no convincing volume at the lows. That price held after the Binance hack is also telling fear did not turn into capitulation. So treating small positions as probes, with clear stop-loss levels, is the disciplined approach here. Patience beats forcing a 2023 replay.
