wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Tuesday's CPI hasn't been released yet, but two groups of people in the backend are already asking the same question: Is it time to bottom-fish, should we chase this rebound?
My answer is reflected in my position—very light.
The reasoning is simple: CPI is the only referee this week, with the market consensus for the monthly rate at +0.3% and core at +0.2%. Before the numbers come out, whether there will be a rate hike in December is like a coin still in the air. Heavy positioning on one side before the coin lands is not trading, it's betting.
After playing cards for so many years, I only believe in one thing: when you can't see the cards clearly, the most expensive move is "feeling like you must have a position." $BTC is stuck around 74,500, with volume dried up to almost no trading; the best move in such a market is to wait.
Are you anxious with full positions now, or sitting empty watching the show?
Let's talk about the only truly resilient asset in the past two weeks — gold. The gold price has been oscillating at a high level above $4000. On one hand, there is a renewed expectation of interest rate hikes; on the other, there is simultaneous easing in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Both forces should have been headwinds, yet gold hasn't dropped much.
In contrast, $BTC, which claims to be "digital gold" every day, during actual risk-off moments, its price movements fully depend on the mood of the US stock market, showing no independent backbone. What's the difference? Behind gold is structural accumulation by central banks worldwide, with the Chinese central bank increasing its holdings monthly for over two years; behind Bitcoin this round is more of a tide of leveraged funds.
Of course, blindly chasing gold at high levels isn't wise either. The world's largest silver ETF reduced its holdings by 14 tons yesterday, indicating differentiation within precious metals. Holding through tailwinds and locking in profits at highs is smarter than chasing at the top. When the market tightens, the true safe-haven assets and those just riding the concept will be clearly distinguished.
Everyone is focused on Tuesday's CPI, but one line has been overshadowed: geopolitical tensions are genuinely cooling down. The Russian delegation has already arrived in Abu Dhabi and will sit down with Ukraine and the US on Tuesday to talk. Trump himself said "a breakthrough is possible"; meanwhile, he also stated there is no need to take further action against Iran, and ExxonMobil even signed a deal to return to Venezuela to explore for oil.
Several events combined point in the same direction — oil prices are heading down. This is the real fuel behind last week's US stock market rebound after overselling: oil prices fall, inflation expectations ease.
But a reminder: don't casually apply this logic to $BTC. De-escalation of war benefits the valuation of risk assets, not Bitcoin's "safe haven" attribute. War has never been a bullish reason for Bitcoin. Don't mistake someone else's tailwind for your own direction.
A piece of news overshadowed by the chip surge that I think deserves more attention than the K-line: In the Bank of Japan's October meeting minutes, some members have openly advocated for "accelerating the pace of rate hikes," citing that inflation targets have been met and the financial environment remains too loose.
Why is this important? One of the underlying fuels for the global risk asset rally over the past decade has been the near-zero-cost arbitrage capital in yen. If Japan really pushes interest rates toward a neutral level, it means the world's largest cheap capital faucet is slowly being tightened.
Don't just focus on whether the Fed will hike rates in December. Assets like $BTC have always feared not a single meeting's decision point, but the overall direction of the liquidity tide. When the tide recedes, those swimming naked will be exposed. Can your position withstand the water level dropping?
Asian chips collectively take off tonight: South Korea's KOSPI once rose over 5% intraday, Samsung and SK Hynix both surged over 5%, Japan's SoftBank directly soared 12%, and the Nikkei gained 3 points. The backstage is lively again—Kongshen, is your storage empty framework about to be proven wrong?
Let me put it this way: I still remain bearish on this round of AI bubble. The systemic deleveraging pit created last week has been partially filled these past two days, which is a typical "buy the dip" technical rebound, not a fundamental shift. The rebound is borrowed; once it reaches the limit, it has to be paid back. I'm not turning bullish.
$BTC, as usual tonight, did not follow the enthusiasm of the Asian stock markets and stayed flat. On one side is the collective euphoria of the stock market, on the other is the silence of crypto—which do you think is more honest?
Last night the Dow surged 1,100 points, AMD soared 13% in a single day, and immediately a bunch of people in the background exploded: Is it going to reverse? Should we chase it?
If I were to answer you in poker terms: just because your opponent wins two hands in a row doesn't mean you should go all-in on the next one.
A 13% gain in one day is never a healthy bull market; it's a short squeeze and emotional recovery after an oversell. The sharper the rise, the harsher the possible pullback. For someone like me who sees the big picture as bearish on the AI bubble, this kind of vertical rebound is actually an opportunity to reposition chips back into the short zone, not a signal to get on board.
Moreover, the real referee only appears on Tuesday—until the CPI is released, all the ups and downs are just noise. Before the big cards are revealed, keeping your position light and your hands steady is more important than anything.
Are you planning to chase this rebound, or wait until the cards are shown before making a move?
Everyone is focused on last night's big surge in the US stock market and Tuesday's CPI, but a deeper underlying trend has been overshadowed: the Middle East is quietly cooling down.
The Financial Times reported that at least four leaders from Arab and Muslim countries called Trump overnight, urging him not to take action against Iran and to allow more time for diplomacy; Trump himself has softened his stance, saying that Qatar and Saudi Arabia are more interested in a peaceful resolution and that he is "not in a hurry."
This development has a much greater significance for the market than it appears on the surface. The Middle East being re-priced from "ready to go to war at any moment" back to "sitting down to talk" means the war premium embedded in oil prices will be unwound—when oil prices drop, inflationary pressure eases, which is one of the hidden drivers behind last night's stock market rebound with strong volume, and also a live variable in Tuesday's CPI.
Remember what I often say: in this round of conflict, the market has never priced in risk aversion, but inflation and interest rate hikes. The movement of oil prices is more honest than anyone shouting about risk aversion.
Last night’s rebound in the US stock market has a detail worth watching even more than how much the indexes rose: all three major indexes rose more than 2%, with the S&P posting its largest single-day gain since April, yet Chinese concept stocks were uniquely slammed—the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.33% against the trend, and Alibaba dropped nearly 4 points.
On a risk-on night across the entire market, some assets are always left out. What does this indicate? This rally is not a broad return of risk appetite; it looks more like a retaliatory rebound after the oversold US domestic tech stocks, with capital selectively buying only their own.
Those left in the corner by this kind of market aren’t just Chinese concept stocks, but also crypto, which remains flat. Despite also being labeled risk assets, others are partying while you’re left out—this in itself is an attitude.
What do you think, how far can this picky rebound go?
Last night, the US stock market experienced a classic panic retreat: the VIX panic index plunged nearly six points in one go, closing at 19.92, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2025. The Dow Jones surged by 1,100 points, and Wall Street finally breathed a sigh of relief.
But if you check $BTC, it remained completely still that same night, hovering below seventy-five thousand, with trading volume so dry it was almost invisible.
This is exactly the point I've been emphasizing these past two days: the sharp drop in the VIX reflects a restoration of risk appetite in the stock market, but it doesn't mean this warm current has flowed into the crypto space. A decline in the panic index does not equal a bottom in crypto; these are two separate things.
True risk appetite returns when the low-volume, sideways-trading coins themselves start to increase volume and move upward, not when the US stock market simply relaxes on their behalf. When do you think this warm breeze will finally reach crypto?
