诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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$AVAX has been a bit awkward these past couple of days. The New York Stock Exchange has chosen it as the settlement layer for its tokenized stock trading platform, yet the coin price hasn't really risen much, and many people have been asking me what's going on.
Let me first clarify what this coin is for: it is an L1 public chain targeting RWA institutions. Unlike Ethereum, it is specifically designed to issue customized chains for institutions, with compliance where needed and speed where needed. Its job is to move government bonds, stocks, and stablecoins onto the chain.
Yesterday, after the news broke, the coin price just touched around 9 USD. Considering that Goldman Sachs' hundred-billion-dollar US Treasury fund and Japan's tens-of-billions securities have been moved onto it, the on-chain RWA has genuinely reached a scale of 1.7 billion USD.
So, is it a good project? My judgment: fundamentally, it is competitive among L1s and truly has scenarios in use. But there is a pitfall that is easily overlooked: the NYSE used its technology to build a private chain for itself, and AVAX only collects some validation fees; the coin itself doesn't get much benefit. Even if the chain is lively, it doesn't mean holding this coin will take off.
Is it worth buying? The coin has dropped more than 90% from its peak and is indeed at a cycle bottom now. The 1.7 billion USD RWA backing it is more solid than the pure bubble in 2021. The problem is that value capture hasn't happened; it's a story that sounds good but has weak realization. My personal view is that below 7 USD is suitable for laying low, and 8-9 USD is the news premium zone.
When will it rise? Either the burn or fee return mechanism really kicks in, or the RWA narrative heats up again and the overall market sentiment returns. Relying on just one news hype won't last more than a few days. #纽交所选定Avalanche，推进代币化证券结算
Will the CPI directly disrupt the rhythm of the crypto market? The data at 21:30 tonight is very critical. #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
The market expects the CPI month-on-month to be +0.3%, core +0.2%. Currently, the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has reached 80%. Because of last year's government shutdown, the focus tonight is on the month-on-month data.
My personal judgment is that the scenario of meeting expectations has the highest probability. If the data aligns with expectations, the probability of a rate hike will likely remain around 80%. $BTC could easily first spike down to shake out the bulls, then rally to sweep out the shorts, oscillating back and forth.
If the core month-on-month is ≥0.4%, the rate hike expectation could surge to over 90%, even pricing in another hike next year, which would be bearish for crypto.
Only if the core is ≤0.2%, ideally around 0.1%, will it shake the December rate hike expectations and be bullish for the market.
Before this data, it is not suitable to heavily bet on a one-sided position; spike moves can easily trigger leveraged liquidations. Wait for the data to land before deciding the direction.
Trump saying he will not take military action for now does not mean this standoff is ending soon; there are still three major hurdles before the war officially ends: #美伊和谈传出新方案，霍尔木兹通航能否恢复？
The US-Iran grudge has lasted over forty years, with several rounds of talks and breakdowns in between; it’s not something that can be resolved with a single statement.
The US tacitly allows Iran’s uranium enrichment to stay capped at 3.67%, and IAEA inspectors are ready to return. This is just a preliminary framework; three hurdles remain before an official end:
First, inspectors must actually verify the uranium enrichment level on the ground, not just take verbal assurances.
Second, the sanctions relief framework must be agreed upon, which is what Iran truly wants.
Third, the hardliners within both countries must be kept in check for this to move forward. Trump’s words are not binding; the next administration or crisis could reverse everything at any time. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal took nearly two years to negotiate and was still torn up in 2018.
So I believe Trump’s statement this time is just a de-escalation, not a final peace. The official conclusion may still take months, possibly as soon as the first quarter.
The market reacted quickly as well; US stocks already priced in the good news last night: the S&P rose over 2%, chips nearly 7%, and oil prices dropped 8%.
But $BTC Bitcoin remains stuck below 75k without recovering losses, due to leverage and ETF net outflows, which ran 1.28 billion last week. Geopolitical easing is good for risk assets, but BTC’s rise depends on ETF net inflows and clearing out the 73k liquidations. Geopolitics is not its engine.
In the short term, don’t chase the final peace narrative; hold your spot positions and wait for BTC’s own catalysts.
Using the news of Nvidia's Jensen Huang's scandal involving $NVDA as a springboard, let's talk about AI:
1. It feels like factional struggles are a big chess game, and I still have a lot to learn.
On the day the midterm election results came out, I said the Democrats are unfriendly to AI and advised friends heavily invested in AI to quickly liquidate. But I didn't expect the move to be so fast; in just 2 days, the "super AI ban" rumor surfaced.
After the AI ban news came out, I thought the crackdown was about done, since this was already a very panic-inducing news event, and it would be hard for another black swan to appear...
But then they casually dropped the news about Jensen Huang's scandal, causing another wave of AI panic—leveraging a small move to create a big impact.
2. Next, AI should continue to pull back. Because I firmly believe that since the Democrats are in power, things that align with their interests will inevitably happen.
Nvidia's technicals are also poor: it has fallen from a high of 230, broken below the 200 round number, currently around 180. Last week it dropped 8.8%, this month down 18.6%, with moving averages clearly in a bearish alignment.
The blue faction's Google $GOOGL is also weak and dragged down: 288 is suppressed below the moving averages, with the 20-day line at 314 and 60-day line at 334 forming resistance. MACD is negative, ADX over 60 confirming the downtrend, with support around 280 but no sign of reversal yet.
I estimate $BTC will also have to pull back, though I don't know where the bottom is.
Of course, every time I wait for a price I’m satisfied with, I buy a bit; now I only have 20% of my position left.
BTCSpot
+545.87 USDT
+21.06%The token unlock volume this week isn't large, but there are a few days to watch closely.
According to DefiLlama, the total unlock from November 9-15 is close to $200 million.
Focus on Wednesday and the weekend. The 11th has the largest unlock of the week, releasing about $30 million in a single day. Pump.fun's $PUMP alone accounts for $24.89 million, making it the biggest single risk this week.
On the 14th, Connex releases $17 million, and on the 15th, the Arbitrum Foundation releases $15.83 million. The $ARB from this release goes to the foundation's address, leaning towards selling pressure. If you hold this coin or want to buy the dip, you still need to watch the chain closely.
The 13th is quite crowded, with Starknet's $STRK releasing $8.52 million and Sei releasing $4.26 million—two releases on the same day. Small coins' liquidity can be easily drained.
Although the total volume this week isn't heavy, PUMP accounts for a high proportion. Meme coins themselves have no backing, so the probability of selling immediately after unlocking is high. Bitcoin and Ethereum can hold steady, but the real danger lies with new coins that have a small circulating supply.
LINK's business is growing bigger and bigger, so why does the coin price remain completely unchanged? How low does it have to drop to buy?
This year, RWA has taken off just like a rocket, with Wall Street structures moving more and more financial assets onto the blockchain, so LINK's business scope is expanding rapidly. The result? Performance is growing so fast, but the price of $LINK's token remains stagnant. This article will give everyone an overview of LINK's situation: 1. How fast is the performance growth? Actually, Link is no longer just an oracle; it is transitioning towards financial infrastructure. First, let's talk about oracles: Traditional finance wanting to go on-chain must have a trusted data source. For example, what is the stock price of $SPCX today, or whether Anthropic has IPOed today. The internet is generally full of false data and noise, so for web3 to accurately put information on-chain, it must have trusted data upload institutions. These institutions are called oracles. Previously, Link was basically only responsible for uploading data for RWA players like $ONDO, but now, it is gradually involved in applications such as how assets interoperate cross-chain, how traditional institutions like banks securely connect to the chain through custody, etc. It has transformed from a pure information intermediary to a credit intermediary. These are the products Link has developed around these three business areas: Because of this, LINK's business segments have grown significantly this year: (1) In May this year, the world's top securities clearing institution DTCC adopted LINK's product CRE, planning to launch it in Q4 this year; (2) By September this year, more than $15 billion worth of tokens have migrated to the product CCIP; (3) Wyoming
$OKB fell below 100, this is not due to technical weakness, the core reason is that giants like Apple and Tesla voted against it.
The tokenized US stock platform cooperated by OKX and ICE now has 67 issuers opposing it, including all seven major tech giants. Originally, nearly 90% of the 62 candidate stocks refused to be listed, and the remaining ones without objections are basically crypto-related companies.
I used to be optimistic about this sector, thinking that getting regulatory approval would be a positive, but the collective resistance from the giants directly killed the story of opening up US stock traffic, and the valuation logic was directly revised downward.
You can also see from the market that OKB is now at a 30-day low, down more than 10% in 7 days, with several short-term moving averages all pressing from above. Interestingly, the contract funding rate is still positive, indicating that there are still bulls holding on hard; the stop-loss orders of these people can easily become the driving force for further declines.
My thinking: 100 is just a psychological barrier; once broken, don’t look for support around this area. The first observation point is the 200-day moving average at 96.24. You can reduce your position if it rebounds to around 105, with a stop loss at 94.5. This drop is event-driven, so don’t rush to bottom-fish hoping for an oversold rebound. #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场
The big boss is indeed the big boss; even a slight sneeze can cause a huge shock in the circle.
This morning, Jensen Huang sent an all-staff email admitting to being unfaithful to his wife and taking full responsibility. The board immediately announced the launch of an independent investigation.
While it's entertaining gossip, the brothers holding these stocks are bleeding: $XNVDA Nvidia's dark pool dropped over 2% initially, $XQQQ Nasdaq futures opened down 1% at one point, then pulled back but couldn't hold, and now the S&P futures are still in the red, Nasdaq down 0.5%.
Some say it's a personal matter and has nothing to do with fundamentals. But Nvidia is the AI totem; whenever it stirs, the whole market feels the ripple. The new highs in US stocks these past two years have been propped up by the AI narrative, and Jensen Huang is the helmsman. When he wobbles even slightly, funds run first. This is unrelated to earnings reports; it's emotion-driven pricing.
The crypto circle is also indirectly affected. $BTC is tightly linked to the Nasdaq; when Nvidia weakens for a day, risk appetite drops significantly. The AI-related coins TAO, RENDER, NEAR—who doesn't watch Nvidia's face?
But there's no need to panic too much. This is a short-term emotional disturbance, not a logical reversal. The CEO is still in position, and the board hasn't given up yet, so no need to be so pessimistic. #英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注
The neighboring exchange opened withdrawals one day early this time, with $HYPE and $APT resuming on November 8, earlier than the originally scheduled next weekend. Today, the focus is on reserve data, which is the most concrete measure of the extent to which trust in exchanges has been damaged.
$BNB's pricing is highly tied to Binance's reserve confidence. Before and after the event, BTC reserves dropped from about 730,000 to 673,700, ETH from 3.48 million to 3.08 million, and Ethereum-based stablecoins directly lost 9 billion. Before reserves show obvious recovery, I consider the 700 level as the watershed between strength and weakness.
HYPE is the focus this time; after being frozen for eight days, the withdrawal channel reopened, liquidity returned, but the accumulated chips also ushered in a selling window, so short-term selling pressure cannot be ignored. Hyperliquid's fundamentals haven't changed, so I won't bottom-fish in the first wave after resumption.
OKB is even more stable, showing strong defensive attributes in this risk environment.
The amount of funds withdrawn directly affects everyone's confidence. BNB's support doesn't come out of thin air; it all depends on whether Binance's holdings are solid enough.
Big Brother Maji made headlines again today! He got liquidated again on Hyperliquid!
A long position of 540 $ETH got fully liquidated in a sharp drop, leaving his account with just over $16,000. But he didn’t give up and immediately went to Papertrade to open another 100x long on ETH.
I checked his on-chain account, and on the other side, he’s holding a 25x full margin long of 690 ETH, with a position worth over $1.4 million.
Currently, the unrealized profit is just over $8,000, with a liquidation price at 2097 and the current price at 2143, leaving only about a $40 buffer.
If this candle dips just a bit more, this position will get liquidated again.
Big Brother Maji’s ability to bounce back is his own skill, with unlimited ammo to keep going, but ordinary people are different—they have very low tolerance for errors!
This high-leverage game is called faith when you’re winning and a lesson when you’re losing! Better to truly love life and stay away from high leverage 😂#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
