唐华斑竹

唐华斑竹：著名KOL，区块链研究者，财经学者。 2013年开始加密货币交易，拥有丰富的交易经验，左侧交易者，风格偏稳健，注重强安全边际，坚守既定策略和纪律，追求长期稳定收益和高胜率。欢迎志同道合的朋友加入一起交流，一起成长！

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Trading genius Curtis Faith ended up homeless! Finally understood: all short-term trend trading will eventually die from a collapse of human nature The harshest reality in the investment world is hidden in the fate of Curtis Faith, author of "The Turtle Trading Rules." He was the strongest trader in the Turtle Program, started at 19, made $30 million for institutions in four years, mastering the most standard, orthodox, and practically verified trend trading system. He even wrote books teaching the world how to be mechanically disciplined, strictly cut losses, and respect risk control. But the final result: bankruptcy, penniless, heavily in debt, homeless, and destitute. Countless retail investors are still obsessed with trend trading, short-term tactics, breakout chasing, and mechanical systems. Everyone thinks: as long as the rules are perfect and discipline is strong, stable compound returns are achievable. Curtis's outcome directly overturns everyone's illusion: it's not that the system is flawed, but human nature can never perfectly execute short-term trend trading. Given enough time, a major loss is inevitable, wiping out everything. 1. The foundation of trend and short-term trading: long-term self-torment, destined to fail Turtle trading and all trend short-term tactics share the same core logic: Rely on countless small stop losses, repeated setbacks, and continuous drawdowns to capture occasional big moves. This system demands behavior that is extremely counter to human nature: Accepting a dozen or dozens of consecutive stop losses; Enduring long periods of sideways account movement and continuous shrinkage; Watching the market daily, making constant decisions, under long-term high pressure and tension; Suppressing greed, fear, and anxiety about missing out, all year round. Short-term self-discipline can hold up, one or three years can be endured. But five, ten years, or a lifetime, no one can execute perfectly. Human nature instinctively hates losses, fears repeated mistakes, envies others' huge profits, and wants to recover losses. Discipline is like a stretched string; it can hold for a while but will inevitably break over a lifetime. 2. The ultimate fate of all trend traders: one loss of control, total wipeout The scariest part of trend trading is not frequent small losses, but that as long as you live in the market, a mental collapse will eventually occur. Long-term continuous losses and self-denial will explode at some point: Start doubting the system, stop cutting losses, hold losing positions, heavily gamble, and try to recover everything in one shot. This time marks the beginning of destruction. Years of painstakingly accumulated profits from countless small stop losses can be wiped out by one big black swan event, one failure to cut losses, or one heavy bet. Curtis is the most authentic example: When supervised and constrained by a team, he was a top genius; Alone, under long-term high pressure and exhaustion, human nature completely rebelled, risk control failed entirely, and one big failure ended his career, wealth, and life. The ending of trend short-term trading is highly consistent: slow losses erode mentality, one margin call seals the fate. 3. In contrast, value investing: aligned with human nature, growing wider over time Why do value masters like Buffett, Munger, and Duan Yongping mostly live long, stay calm, have happy families, and end well? Because value investing earns money from business growth and compounding, not from volatile arbitrage. No need to trade daily, no frequent stop losses, no continuous self-torment. Make decisions a few times a year or even every few years, spend the rest of the time reading, thinking, living, and being with family. It tests patience, not fighting human nature. No continuous high pressure, no repeated setbacks, no high-frequency anxiety. It allows short-term floating losses, market fluctuations, and doesn't require proving correctness every moment. Therefore, value investors rarely face one-time destruction; the longer the term, the steadier and wealthier they become. 4. The ultimate truth: the biggest investment risk is never the system, but human nature The market irony is: The hardest to execute, most counter-human, and ultimately zeroing short-term trend trading is what everyone rushes to learn; The simplest, most composed, and lifelong compounding value investing is what everyone finds too slow. All short-term and trend systems share the same fate: Win in the short term, endure in the mid-term, collapse in the long term. Because humans are not machines, emotions can never be completely zeroed. As long as you do trend or short-term trading, countless high-pressure decisions over a lifetime make mistakes inevitable. One big mistake can erase ten years of effort and a lifetime of accumulation. Curtis's homeless ending is the most real final warning for all who obsess over technicals and short-term trading. Slow is the protective color of life's compounding; fast is the biggest trap in the capital market.

NIO's stock price has fallen more than 95% from its peak, wiping out over 600 billion yuan in market value, and the market's confidence in its ability to hold its ground in the brutal competition for existing market share is rapidly fading. Li Bin's loudly proclaimed profit targets have yet to materialize. Although a brief quarterly turnaround was achieved in Q4 last year through adjustments, losses have since expanded, with the company accumulating losses exceeding 100 billion yuan since its founding in 2015. Even landlords with reserves at home cannot withstand such continuous declines and losses; the most troubling issue is that the profit inflection point remains far off. In the just-past October, the entire group, including NIO, Lixiang, and Firefly, delivered a total of 34,000 vehicles, down 15% year-on-year; cumulative deliveries from January to October this year reached 334,000 vehicles. If this performance is compared only horizontally among new car-making forces, it can barely maintain a position in the second tier, but when placed against industry giants like BYD, Geely, and SAIC, which sell millions of units annually, the scale disadvantage is glaring. If it were still the industry’s explosive growth dividend period, such middling sales might still allow survival. But by 2026, electric vehicles will fully enter an era of stock competition. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that domestic new energy vehicle sales growth slowed in the first three quarters, and after excluding exports, domestic demand even shrank by 11%. As Leapmotor founder Zhu Jiangming said, the current logic is simple and brutal — you must seize others’ market share. Looking back, one of the most ingenious financial moves related to NIO was actually completed by Hefei state-owned capital. In April 2020, Hefei Construction Investment led a consortium with Anhui High-tech Investment and State Investment & Trade to inject 7 billion yuan into "NIO China," acquiring 24.1% equity. Subsequently, NIO completed three rounds of share buybacks in September 2020, February 2021 (a single 5.5 billion yuan round), and September 2021, paying a total of 10.5 billion yuan. Hefei not only fully recovered its 7 billion yuan principal but also pocketed 3.5 billion yuan in net profit, staging a classic "safe exit with guaranteed profit." In contrast, the Abu Dhabi fund’s cost price was roughly between 7.5 and 8.72, investing a total of 3.3 billion USD, and is now trapped. Indeed, Chinese people don’t scam Chinese people...

If you want to break the habit of talking too much, you can start by adjusting your mindset and practicing specific techniques. This will not only make your interpersonal relationships more comfortable but also help you become more composed. 🤔 First, understand: Why do you talk so much? Often, talking a lot is not just a simple "straightforward personality"; there may be some psychological reasons behind it. You can check which one applies to you: - Inner emptiness, fear of silence: Using constant talking to fill the void, creating the illusion of "I'm busy" or "I exist," essentially feeling a bit insecure. - Strong desire to show off: Always wanting to share your opinions to gain a temporary sense of superiority and presence through words. - Emotional impulsiveness, lack of thinking: When happy or excited, your mouth moves faster than your brain, saying whatever comes to mind without a "pause and review" process. - Lack of security: Afraid of the loss of control that silence brings, thinking that talking continuously can control the pace of the conversation. 🛠️ Physically shut up: Immediate "brake" techniques These methods can be directly applied in daily conversations to help you quickly "hit the brakes." - Three-second gate rule: Before any words leave your mouth, silently count to three in your mind. These three seconds are enough for you to judge whether the sentence is "must say" or "can be omitted." - "Tear open" your ears: Force yourself to shift your attention from "what to say" to "what the other person is saying." Try summarizing the core meaning of the other person's speech in your mind. If you can't summarize it, it means you weren't really listening, so naturally, it's not your turn to speak. - "Occupy" your mouth: When you want to speak, take a sip of water, eat something, or replace it with a smile. This simple action physically prevents you from blurting out. - Breathing method to calm down: When you feel emotional or want to talk endlessly, take a deep breath first. Hold your breath while inhaling, then exhale slowly. This process helps you calm down and avoid emotional expression. 🧠 Mental restructuring: "Throttle" from the root Changing your thinking pattern can fundamentally solve the problem and make "speaking less" a habit. - Treat words like money: Imagine every word you say has a cost. Before speaking, ask yourself: "Is this worth it? Does it solve a problem or convey useful information?" Save your words if they are worthless nonsense. - Close the mouths of "defense" and "advice": When misunderstood, don't rush to explain; those who understand you don't need many words. When seeing others make mistakes, unless they ask for advice, don't be quick to give it, as it may be seen as "showing off." - Practice concise expression: Force yourself to express the core point in fewer sentences. If you can't make it clear in three sentences, it means you haven't figured it out yourself, so it's better not to speak. - Establish a "traffic light" system: Set a speaking rule for yourself. For example, casual chat is "green light," you can speak normally; discussing sensitive or complex topics is "yellow light," limited to 3 minutes; and some gossip or private matters are "red light," unless explicitly invited by others, don't bring them up proactively. ✨ Core mindset shifts - From "speaking" to "listening": Shift your focus from self-expression to understanding others, and you'll find listening more powerful than speaking. - From "more" to "quality": Pursue the quality of words rather than quantity, making every time you speak more meaningful.