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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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其实我昨天看到美军对伊朗格什姆岛的袭击反而让我内心“松了一口气”,不是因为本次袭击规模不大, 而是因为既然有小规模军事打击,那么大规模军事打击的优先级就可以做降级处理,这对于目前美伊局势的判断算是一件好事 逻辑非常简单,美伊局势就像是一个高压环境,如果双边沉默、引而不发,我反而会担心会直接出现大规模的军事冲突,但是一旦有“泄压”动作,例如小规模军事打击,例如增加经济制裁力度,例如伊朗取消2000公里弹道导弹限制等等 这些动作在我的视角里都是对美伊局势的“泄压”动作,毕竟对于美伊双方内部体系来说,如果对外没有武力、外交硬派动作,内部压力就会变得很大,而这种内部强硬派一旦积蓄足够的压力很有可能推动大规模作战出现 所以,有动作,我反而觉得是好事,目前美伊的局势依旧不是那么明朗,太多的消息噪音,以及关键协议草案并未完全披露,双边也没有明确态度,现在“水下暗线”博弈依旧很频繁,我们保持谨慎态度等待! 后续,还要关注以色列内塔尼亚胡大选,以及美国方面对赫格赛斯弹劾问题!#美军扩大对伊朗封锁,霍尔木兹重开仍存分歧
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Is the turning point in the US-Iran situation approaching? The "seven prerequisites" remain the key threshold, the US is pushing military escalation to the decision-making threshold, choosing one out of three? After China, Russia officially steps in to mediate!
Is a turning point in the US-Iran situation approaching? The "seven prerequisites" remain the key threshold, with the US pushing military escalation to the decision-making threshold, choosing one of three options? After China, Russia officially steps in to mediate! In the past 24 hours, the US-Iran situation has seen a slight escalation. The core conflict remains Iran's demand that the US first meet Iran's "seven conditions" before returning to negotiations. Iran has already submitted this proposal to the US through Qatar, and the US is currently reviewing it. On the US side, after a meeting between Trump and the national security team, three options were presented: military strike, economic sanctions, or reaching an agreement, with military strike being the most important decision alternative. The US-Iran geopolitical tension has slightly increased. Meanwhile, Qatar, as the mediator, is still making efforts and currently promotes a two-day plan: On the first day, the US lifts the maritime blockade and releases some frozen assets; Iran invites the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the attacked nuclear facilities. On the second day, Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, then initiates negotiations on its high-enriched uranium stockpile. #美股遭大幅抛售:费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 Meanwhile, on Thursday, Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, met with Putin, after which Iran stated that Russia is willing to help Iran end the war. Clearly, in terms of mediation, Iran does not rely solely on Qatar itself but also has alternative plans — Gulf countries plus Russia (China is in the background). Other factors: The Turkish parliament approved Turkey's formal accession to the "Mecca Collective Defense Agreement," greatly increasing Middle East geopolitical risks. If the US-Iran war restarts, Iran will target the Gulf countries.

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